Tyson Ross has had an uneven career since being selected in the second round of the 2008 draft by the Oakland Athletics. Along with his original organization, he’s pitched for the San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers, St. Louis Cardinals, and now the Detroit Tigers. Injuries have been an issue. Currently on the 60-day Injured List with ulnar nerve neuritis, the 32-year-old right-hander previously underwent Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery in 2016.

When healthy, he’s been a quality big-league pitcher. Ross was an All-Star with the Padres in 2014, and the following year he led the National League in games started. His ERA over that two-season stretch was 3.03, while his K/9 was a robust 9.4. A mid-90s fastball played in a big role in that success, but it’s never been his best pitch. Ross has — when at full strength — one of the game’s best sliders.

Ross talked about his signature pitch, as well the cutter his college coach didn’t know he threw, and what he’s learned since purchasing a Rapsodo, when the Tigers visited Fenway Park in late April.

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David Laurila: You’re known for your slider. What is the history behind it?

Tyson Ross: “It’s always been my go-to pitch. I went to college at Cal-Berkeley and threw a ton of sliders when I was there. But I originally learned the pitch when I was 11 years old. I was in All Stars, playing third base, and we ended up needing an emergency pitcher. I could get on the mound and throw strikes with a fastball, but I needed a second pitch. My buddy’s dad said, ‘Hey, grip it like this and throw it like a fastball.’ The second or third one broke. He didn’t actually call it a slider — he just called it a breaking ball — but it felt good in my hand, and I’ve been throwing it the same way ever since.”

Laurila: Is there anything unique about it?

Ross: “Nothing special. It just works the way it does, for whatever reason.” Read the rest of this entry »

In the winter of 2017, Lance Lynn was coming off a season with a solid 3.43 ERA but poor peripheral numbers and couldn’t get the multi-year deal he desired, eventually settling with the Minnesota Twins. Lynn got off to a rough start, but from May on he put up a 3.34 FIP and a 4.13 ERA with the Twins and Yankees (following a trade), with the former number making Lynn one of the top-15 pitchers in the game and the latter number befitting an average-to-slightly above-average innings-eater. Heading into 2018, Lynn was paid based on his poor FIP and not his solid ERA, but heading into 2019, Lynn received a contract based on his average ERA and not on his very good FIP. Lynn agreed to a three-year deal worth $30 million to pitch for Texas, and 15 starts into in his Rangers career, the MLB pitching WAR leaderboard looks like this:

There’s Max Scherzer at the top, and right behind him is Lynn with 3.2 wins above replacement on the season. While some might have the urge to point to Lynn’s 4.16 ERA and insist there is something wrong with WAR, particularly at FanGraphs, I would request fighting against any such urges. First, I’d like to note that over at Baseball-Reference, Lynn’s 2.7 WAR ranks 12th in all of baseball and isn’t too far off from the one above. As for that ERA, Lynn has put together an unusual season with respect to runs allowed. First, Lynn has no unearned runs on the year. While most pitchers’ earned run totals are around 90%-95% of their runs allowed, Lynn’s runs have all been earned. Indeed, Rangers pitchers outside of Lynn have earned run totals that are 93% of their total runs allowed. While it is possible that Lynn has benefited from great defense, that’s unlikely as we’ll get to below. In any event, that explains roughly 0.3 of Lynn’s higher ERA. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s an exciting time to be a Blue Jays fan.

Despite the team being firmly out of contention, the presence of Cavan Biggio and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (both sons of Hall of Famers) in the lineup provides substantial watchability. Guerrero is known for his 80-grade raw power, an attribute which has already translated to the majors. Biggio, however, is known more for his plate discipline and approach, also something that has already been on display during his first three weeks in the big leagues.

In 77 plate appearances entering Wednesday, Biggio has slashed .222/.364/.492 with five home runs and a 130 wRC+. He’s already drawn 14 walks. Among players with at least 50 plate appearances this season, his 18.2% walk rate ranks fifth. Particularly for a player with no prior big league experience, Biggio’s discipline numbers are impressive.

But we must be careful in touting him. It has only been 77 plate appearances, after all. It is hard to draw any firm conclusions about any player in this small of a sample. That can be the issue with early-season baseball writing. Of course, it’s not early in the season anymore, but it’s still early in Biggio’s season. Read the rest of this entry »

The Nationals seem very unlikely to trade Max Scherzer (and his broken nose), but with them holding the 11th-best record in the National League and being five games under .500, rumors are starting to swirl. Ken Rosenthal discussed the possibility of a trade, mostly laying out the reasons why a deal was unlikely. While Scherzer trade proposals might be more fantasy than reality, determining his trade value is more reality-based, even if more of an academic pursuit.

A year ago, when constructing the Trade Value series, Kiley McDaniel put Max Scherzer at No. 41, and he indicated the difficulty surrounding a player like Scherzer.

Some small market teams like Oakland, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay could technically afford $22 million through 2021 then $15 million through 2028 for three years of Scherzer — it’s a huge but not insane part of their payroll — they would just never actually do that. So with all of those teams off the board and most of the middle-tier teams choosing to use their money with more of medium-term outlook, the market for Scherzer appears as though it would be limited. Also, he turns 34 this month and will decline at some point, even if he’ll punch me for saying that.

All that said, for big-market contenders that needs an ace in the playoffs, a 6.5-WAR pitcher may have the impact of a 10 WAR pitcher if deployed in a certain way during the postseason. And some orgs can stomach the $15-22 million tab, regardless of how long it runs, for that kind of impact over three postseasons. A trade-value list for just the Yankees may have Scherzer 20 spots higher, but this list is for a little bit of everyone. I feel like Dave and I did the math here similarly, as I moved him down eight spots from the 2017 edition of this series, based mostly on aging.

Assessing a generic trade value for a player like Scherzer is a problem because the market for Scherzer’s services is a small one, but among the teams that might be interested, the value to those teams would be higher than a standard analysis might provide. Scherzer’s value to the Nationals complicates matters further. To get an idea of what I’m talking about, let’s start with some generic projections for Scherzer, incorporate his salary, and estimate that the value of a win is around $9 million. Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs is headed to Cleveland for some pre-All-Star game festivities, and we want to raise a glass and enjoy a bit of baseball talk with our readers. To that end, we’re hosting an event at Speakeasy on Saturday, July 6 at 6 PM. The evening will feature drinks, appetizers, plenty of time for mingling, and a panel discussion with some of your favorite FanGraphs writers and our friends from around the game.

FanGraphs writers who will be in attendance include me, Eric Longenhagen, Kiley McDaniel, Dan Szymborski, Craig Edwards, David Appelman, and Sean Dolinar.

Doors open at 6 PM; the panel will kick off at 7 PM. Tickets are $15, or free with FanGraphs membership (a coupon will automatically be applied to your ticket if you are logged in when you purchase), and cover admission to the event. They can be purchased here. Appetizers are on us.

We’ll have more details on the panel and potential guests soon. We hope to see you there!

Event Details
Saturday, July 6
Speakeasy, 1948 W 25th St, Cleveland, OH
Doors open at 6 PM
Panel program begins at 7 PM
Tickets can be purchased here.

The use of the infield shift has exponentially grown over the past few years. Teams have employed a defensive shift on more than a quarter of the total pitches thrown this season. That’s by far the highest usage rate in the Statcast era (2015-present). It’s become so prevalent, Major League Baseball is reportedly considering changing the rules of the game to curtail teams from shifting too often.

A common argument that comes up when the rise of defensive shifts is brought up goes like this: “Why doesn’t a batter just bunt against the shift? They’re just giving him an easy single.” Ignoring the incredible difficulty of actually bunting successfully, I’m sure every team in the league would happily allow a bunt single to Joey Gallo if it meant he was giving up an opportunity to hit a double or a dinger.

But what if one of those bunt hits went for extra-bases anyway? Read the rest of this entry »

The first round of All-Star voting comes to a close on June 26th, which means we’re just over a week away from an annual tradition unlike any other: Anthony Rendon not getting the respect he deserves. He’s sitting fifth among NL third basemen in the vote, below the top-3 cutoff for this year’s final-day runoff. He’s also sixth in the majors among all batters in fWAR, which likely means he’ll make his All-Star debut this year. Yes, you read that right — Anthony Rendon has never been an All-Star.

All-Star results aren’t everything, of course. They matter for arbitration payouts, as Tommy Pham will tell you, but they’re not always (or even often) accurate reflections of who has provided the most value on the field. Still, it’s remarkable that Rendon has never been an All-Star. Since he debuted in 2013, he’s been the 12th-most valuable hitter in baseball, second only to Josh Donaldson among third basemen. If Rendon makes the team this year as a reserve, it will be fitting, because he’s never been more deserving than he is right now; he’s taken his offensive game to new heights from an already impressive baseline. He’s been outright Trout-ian at the plate this year, fixing weaknesses while sticking with strengths.

When I looked into Rendon’s 2018 this offseason, I focused on his newfound aggression. He increased his swing rate more than almost every other player in baseball last year, particularly on the first pitch of a plate appearance. Looking back a few more years, this seems like a change Rendon has been leaning into over time. He was passive to start at-bats at the start of his career, and he has been ramping it up over time, though he’s dialed it back marginally this year:

First-pitch swing rate is a blunt tool. Imagine a batter who is universally feared. Pitchers rarely attempt to challenge him. They throw him strikes on only 10% of first pitches. He’s wildly aggressive, swinging at 80% of strikes and 10% of balls. Still, that’s only an 17% swing rate, which sounds quite passive. Imagine another hitter, this one a patient sort with no pop whatsoever. Pitchers absolutely pound the zone against him — we’re talking a 90% zone rate, completely unheard of. He’s one of the most patient hitters in baseball, only swinging at 20% of strikes, and no balls whatsoever. This gets him to an 18% first-pitch swing rate. Clearly, we need to consider how pitchers attack Rendon to say anything definitive about his swing rates. Read the rest of this entry »

Logan Allen is slated to make his MLB debut tonight when the San Diego Padres host the Milwaukee Brewers. He’ll do so at age 22, four years after being drafted by the Boston Red Sox, who that same winter sent the southpaw west as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal. He’s progressed well in the meantime. Allen entered this season ranked eighth in a loaded Padres system, with our own Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel opining that he “comfortably projects as a No. 4 starter.”

Allen’s assets include a bulldog mentality, and he wears it like a badge of honor.

“It’s the way I’ve always been wired,” Allen told me this spring. “I’ve never been that guy who throws 100 mph. I’ve never been that guy who was the freakiest athlete. I’ve always had pretty good stuff, but I think my success is really more about the way I’ve handled myself on the field, with conviction and intent. I don’t believe in giving in.”

The subconscious can be a cruel animal. While the burly left-hander isn’t about to back down from a challenge, uncertainty demons have crept into the dark recesses of his mind on more than one occasion. Just yesterday, Allen told The San Diego Union Tribune’s Kevin Acee that his recent struggles — 14 earned runs in 15 innings over his past three starts at Triple-A El Paso — have been “between the ears.” He admitted that he’s allowed himself to become frustrated, which has resulted in a snowballing of bad results. Read the rest of this entry »

Last month, I wrote about Ian Desmond’s improved swing. For two seasons, Desmond hit ground balls at the highest rate in baseball, which is generally not the mark of a successful hitter. That is especially true in the current era of “elevate and celebrate.” Desmond was not elevating and thus rarely celebrating, even while playing most of his games in Coors Field.

Things changed this season, and for the better. Desmond had an average launch angle of 0 degrees in both 2017 and 2018, but has raised that mark to 7.8 degrees in 2019. His barrel rate has increased as a result, and he’s hitting for much more power: His .236 ISO is a career high.

When I first wrote about Desmond, the results weren’t yet there. On May 15, the day before publication, he sported a .218/.285/.411 slash line. His 64 wRC+ ranked 159th among qualified hitters, and his -0.4 WAR ranked 166th. While the underlying numbers were still encouraging at the time, Desmond was not yet seeing results. Read the rest of this entry »

After years of inconsistent production, Mike Foltynewicz finally harnessed his elite fastball and emerged as an All-Star in 2018. Across 183 innings, Foltynewicz struck out 202 hitters while notching a 2.85 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. All of those marks were easily career bests and, perhaps most impressively, he managed to miss tons of bats while also increasing his ground-ball rate. One year doesn’t make an ace, but Foltynewicz’s stock surged as much as anybody’s in baseball last season.

But Foltynewicz hasn’t built off his breakout campaign in 2019. The right-hander started the season on the disabled list, didn’t look quite right when he rejoined the rotation, and has yet to resemble his 2018 form in anything more than short bursts.

Across 10 starts this year, he’s posted a 5.53 ERA and a FIP north of 6.00. After striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine innings last season, he’s now whiffing fewer than eight. Even worse, Foltynewicz’s home run rate has tripled in 2019, and his 2.44 HR/9 ratio is the fifth-worst in the league among pitchers who have thrown at least 50 innings.

There are a few factors that explain Foltynewicz’s plummeting numbers. As always, velocity is the first thing to check when a pitcher suddenly starts getting hit around, and sure enough, Foltynewicz is down a bit relative to last season. Read the rest of this entry »