Before or during Jack Flaherty’s start today, viewers are likely to hear about his 0.91 second half ERA. It is the third-lowest second-half ERA since 1920. The second-lowest second half ERA belongs to Greg Maddux, who accomplished the feat in the strike-shortened 1994 season and pitched barely more than 50 second-half innings. The first belongs to Jake Arrieta, whose 0.79 ERA in the second half in 2015 propelled him to the Cy Young award. Of course, ERA alone doesn’t tell the whole story. For one thing, as with Maddux, it doesn’t show how many innings are being thrown. For another, different eras produce vastly different run-scoring environments. Pitching with a juiced ball or juiced players can make life more difficult for pitchers, rendering a lower ERA even more impressive. To that end, we can put Flaherty’s second half in perspective.

The easiest way to do so here at FanGraphs is to use RA9-WAR, which takes runs allowed, innings, and the run environment into account. Flaherty’s second-half RA9-WAR was 6.4, way out in front of Jacob deGrom’s second-place 4.8 mark. If you cut Flaherty’s RA9-WAR in half, he would still rank ninth in baseball since the All-Star Break. We have second-half splits going back to 1974; here’s where Flaherty ranks among the couple-thousand qualified second-half pitchers:

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Jake Odorizzi heads into the postseason on the heels of a career year. In his second season with the Minnesota Twins, the 29-year-old right-hander has a 3.51 ERA, a 3.36 FIP, and 178 strikeouts in 159 innings. If won-lost records are your cup of tea, Odorizzi boasts a snazzy 15-7 mark going into Saturday’s presumed start against the Yankees in ALDS Game 2. (There’s an outside chance he’ll be held back for Monday’s Game in Minneapolis.)

An uptick of velocity on all of his pitches has played a role in Odorizzi’s success. That’s especially been the case with his heater, which former FanGraphs colleague Sung Min Kim — hired recently by the KBO’s Lotte Giants — called “The best fastball of 2019” back in June.

What was behind Odorizzi’s increased velocity and the improved performances that came with it? I asked him that question when the Twins visited Fenway Park in early September.

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David Laurila: You’re having your best season. To what do you attribute that?

Jake Odorizzi: “I did a new training program this past offseason. I worked with a gentleman in Plant City, Florida named Randy Sullivan. That was at the Florida Baseball Ranch. Kyle Gibson used him last year. Justin Verlander has done some work with him, as well..

“I’d felt like I was out of whack mechanically. Health-wise I was good, but I needed to get more out of my body, maybe use my mechanics a little bit better, a little bit smoother. I did some weighted-ball stuff; I did a mobility program. I kind of unlocked some more torque in my body. I was able to separate my upper half from my lower half instead being like a one-piece — everything goes at once, and it’s stiff. Read the rest of this entry »

The Rays’ path to building a 96-win playoff team is about as unconventional as you can imagine. They aren’t active in free agency, although both of their offseason signings worked out great. They don’t have a lot of homegrown players, but one is a former Cy Young Award winner and another was an All-Star as a rookie in 2019. They’ve filled out nearly 70% of their roster through trades that mostly didn’t include top prospects going elsewhere. While the constant turnover might not help in growing their fan base — they averaged fewer than 15,000 per home game this season — it’s been a recipe for success on the field.

Here’s how every member of the Rays’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (6)

• Kevin Kiermaier, CF: Drafted 31st Round 2010
• Blake Snell, SP: Drafted First Round (52) 2011
• Yonny Chirinos, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) June 2012
• Diego Castillo, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) March 2014
• Brandon Lowe, INF/OF: Drafted Third Round 2015
• Brendan McKay, RP: Drafted First Round (4) 2017

Total WAR: 10.0

Signed in Free Agency (2)

• Charlie Morton, RP: December 2018 (HOU) — Signed to two-year, $30 million contract ($15 million vesting option in 2021).
• Avisaíl García, OF: January 2019 (CHW) — Signed to one-year, $3.5 million contract.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Astros, who set a franchise-record with 107 regular season wins in 2019, head into the playoffs with a well-balanced roster that includes plenty of star power, young talent, and battle-tested veterans, and almost no weaknesses. Only nine of the 25 players were part of the 2017 championship team, although most of the biggest contributors still remain. The most notable departure is Charlie Morton, who they’ll face off against in Game 3 on Monday.

Here’s how every member of the Astros’ 2019 ALDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (8)

• José Altuve, 2B: Amateur Free Agent (Venezuela) March 2007
• George Springer, OF: Drafted First Round (11) 2011
• Carlos Correa, SS: Drafted First Round (1) 2012
• Josh James, RP: Drafted 34th Round 2014
• Jose Urquidy, RP/SP: Amateur Free Agent (Mexico) March 2015
• Alex Bregman, 3B: Drafted First Round (2) 2015
• Kyle Tucker, OF: Drafted First Round (5) 2015
• Myles Straw, INF/OF: Drafted 12th Round 2015

Total WAR: 24.5

Signed in Free Agency (7)

• Yuli Gurriel, 1B: July 2016 (Cuba) — Signed to five-year, $47.5 million contract.
• Josh Reddick, OF: November 2016 (LAD) — Signed to four-year, $52 million contract.
• Joe Smith, RP: December 2017 (CLE) — Signed to two-year, $15 million contract.
• Héctor Rondón, RP: December 2017 (CHC) — Signed to two-year, $8.5 million contract.
• Robinson Chirinos, C: December 2018 (TEX) — Signed to one-year, $5.75 million contract.
• Michael Brantley, OF: December 2018 (CLE) — Signed two-year, $32 million contract.
• Wade Miley, SP: February 2019 (MIL) — Signed to one-year, $4.5 million contract.

Total WAR: 12.9
Read the rest of this entry »

While eight teams remain in the postseason, seven who missed out are busy searching for their next skipper. On Thursday, the Mets’ Mickey Callaway joined the ranks of the unemployed, getting the axe after just two seasons at the helm. He’s the fourth manager fired since late September with at least a year remaining on his contract, after the Padres’ Andy Green, the Pirates’ Clint Hurdle, and the Angels’ Brad Ausmus. Meanwhile, two former World Series winners, the Giants’ Bruce Bochy and the Royals’ Ned Yost, have retired, and a third ex-champion, Joe Maddon, parted ways with the Cubs after his contract expired. At this writing, the fate of the Phillies’ Gabe Kapler still hangs in the balance.

What follows here is a roundup of each vacancy, including a list of reported candidates that may not be comprehensive, since all of this is attempting to hit several moving targets. I’ve attempted to distinguish them from those whose candidacies are merely speculative. The teams are listed in order of 2019 records.

Mets (86-76)

What happened: Callaway was hired by general manager Sandy Alderson, who took a leave of absence in mid-2018 due to a recurrence of cancer and decided not to return to the job. Former agent Brodie Van Wagenen was hired last November, and he made a series of splashy moves, many of which ultimately set the Mets back (particularly the trade of two former first-round picks for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz). The holdover manager did not mesh with an increasingly analytically inclined front office — at one point, Callaway boasted, “I bet 85% of our decisions go against the analytics,” a statement that stood out given his often glaring in-game mistakes, many centered around a bullpen that ranked among the league’s worst. Read the rest of this entry »

The early innings of Game 1 at SunTrust Park on Thursday evening — and for that matter, the late ones — served as a reminder that you can watch baseball all year long, and drill deep in analyzing and anticipating what might happen come the postseason, but sometimes, things simply unfold in ways that run counter to numbers and expectations. Depending upon where you sit, that’s the thrill and the agony of October baseball. For seven innings, the mistakes by a stellar Cardinals defense loomed large against the backdrop of a low-scoring affair, but then a late-inning slugfest produced nine of the game’s 13 runs against a pair of usually-solid bullpens. Ultimately, the Cardinals overcame a 3-1 deficit, scoring six unanswered runs in the final two frames and hanging on for a 7-6 victory.

In the regular season, the Cardinals made fewer errors than any other NL team (66), posted the league’s highest Ultimate Zone Rating (32.8), second-highest defensive efficiency rate (.706), and third-highest total of Defensive Runs Saved. That excellent work gave a pitching staff that produced a middling 4.27 FIP quite a leg up; the team’s 3.82 ERA ranked second in the league, and the 0.45 runs per nine gap between ERA and FIP was the majors’ largest. Without that defense — which Craig Edwards called the primary driver of their success just a few weeks ago — the Cardinals might well have wound up in the Wild Card game, or even outside the playoff picture instead of winning the division.

Meanwhile, a bullpen that lost closer Jordan Hicks to Tommy John surgery in late June wound up finding a silver lining in Carlos Martinez’s rotator cuff strain. As with last August, when he rehabbed his way back from a previous shoulder strain as a reliever, Martinez returned to the bullpen. He pitched very well if not dominant, posting a 3.05 ERA and 2.86 FIP while converting 24 of 27 save chances. He allowed just two home runs in 48.1 innings. On Thursday night, when it appeared the game was firmly in hand, he allowed two more and made things interesting. Read the rest of this entry »

The Nats have had a winning record in each of the last eight seasons and have reached the playoffs five times during that span, and yet it feels as though they’ve fallen short of expectations year after year. With the departure of Bryce Harper last offseason, a bullpen that’s mostly been bad, and a staff ace who has battled through a back injury for months, this could be the year they’re overlooked. Well, not by me or the three others at FanGraphs who picked them to win it all. But most people aren’t buying that they can take down a Dodgers team that might have more talent and depth than any team in baseball.

Here’s how every member of the Nationals’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (8)

• Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: Drafted First Round (4) 2005
• Stephen Strasburg, SP: Drafted First Round (1) 2009
• Michael A. Taylor, OF: Drafted Sixth Round 2009
• Wander Suero, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) February 2010
• Anthony Rendon, 3B: Drafted First Round (6) 2011
• Austin Voth, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2013
• Victor Robles, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2013
• Juan Soto, OF: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) July 2015

Total WAR: 22.6

Signed in Free Agency (9)

• Max Scherzer, SP: January 2015 (DET) — Signed to seven-year, $210 million contract.
• Kurt Suzuki, C: November 2018 (ATL) — Signed to two-year, $10 million contract.
• Patrick Corbin, SP: December 2018 (ARI) — Signed to six-year, $140 million contract.
• Aníbal Sánchez, SP: December 2018 (ATL) — Signed to two-year, $19 million contract ($12 million club option for 2021).
• Matt Adams, 1B: December 2018 (STL) — Signed to one-year, $4 million contract ($4 million mutual option for 2020).
• Brian Dozier, 2B: January 2019 (LAD) — Signed to one-year, $9 million contract.
• Gerardo Parra, OF: May 2019 (SF) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.
• Fernando Rodney, RP: June 2019 (OAK) — Signed to Minor League contract.
• Asdrúbal Cabrera, INF: August 2019 (TEX) — Signed to minimum salary contract for remainder of season.

Total WAR: 17.8

Acquired Via Trade (8)

• Trea Turner, SS: June 2015 (SDP) — Acquired in trade that sent Steven Souza Jr., Jake Bauers, René Rivera, Burch Smith, and Travis Ott to the Rays and Wil Myers, Gerardo Reyes, Jose Castillo, and Ryan Hanigan to the Padres.
• Adam Eaton, OF: December 2016 (CHW) — Acquired in trade that sent Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, and Dane Dunning to the White Sox.
• Sean Doolittle, RP: July 2017 (OAK) — Acquired in trade that sent Blake Treinen, Jesus Luzardo, and Sheldon Neuse to the Athletics.
• Howie Kendrick, INF: July 2017 (PHI) — Acquired in trade that sent McKenzie Mills and international bonus slot money to the Phillies.
• Yan Gomes, C: December 2018 (CLE) — Acquired in trade that sent Jefry Rodriguez, Daniel Johnson, and Andruw Monasterio to the Indians.
• Tanner Rainey, RP: December 2018 (CIN) — Acquired in trade that sent Tanner Roark to the Reds.
• Hunter Strickland, RP: July 2019 (SEA) — Acquired in trade that sent Aaron Fletcher, Taylor Guilbeau, and Elvis Alvarado to the Mariners.
• Daniel Hudson, RP: July 2019 (TOR) — Acquired in trade that sent Kyle Johnston to the Blue Jays.

Total WAR: 10.6

As should probably have been expected from a team with a ton of young talent and more help on the way that has made back-to-back World Series appearances, the Dodgers’ front office didn’t have to do much during the offseason. And they didn’t. Maybe that decision will be second-guessed if they get knocked out of the playoffs early, but they did win 106 games during the regular season and had all but wrapped up the division title by early June. Regardless of what happens, this team’s run of seven consecutive seasons with at least 91 wins and a playoff appearance isn’t likely to end here.

Here’s how every member of the Dodgers’ 2019 NLDS roster was originally acquired. The team’s full RosterResource Depth Chart and Payroll pages are also available as a resource.

Homegrown (13)

• Kenley Jansen, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Curacao) November 2004
• Clayton Kershaw, SP: Drafted First Round (7) 2006
• Pedro Báez, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Dominican Republic) January 2007
• Joc Pederson, OF: Drafted 11th Round 2010
• Corey Seager, SS: Drafted First Round (18) 2012
• Ross Stripling, RP: Drafted Fifth Round 2012
• Julio Urías, RP: Amateur Free Agent (Mexico) August 2012
• Cody Bellinger, OF: Drafted Fourth Round 2013
• Walker Buehler, SP: Drafted First Round (24) 2015
• Matt Beaty, INF/OF: Drafted 12th Round 2015
• Gavin Lux, 2B: Drafted First Round (20) 2016
• Will Smith, C: Drafted First Round (32) 2016
• Dustin May, RP: Drafted Third Round 2016

Total WAR: 31.6 Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Bay cruised past Oakland in the Wild Card game and enters the divisional round for the first time in six years. Their reward is a best-of-five date with the Houston Astros.

The Rays aren’t exactly limping into the postseason. Tampa Bay won 96 games in what passes for a competitive division these days, and they’re solid in all aspects of the game. In Houston though, they’re meeting a 107-win behemoth, a club that looks like one of the two or three best teams we’ve seen this century.

You may have noticed something weird in the “Edge” column of the table above. Ultimately, the yearly totals don’t adequately reflect how dominant Houston’s rotation is as currently constructed. After all, the Rays won’t be facing Collin McHugh or Corbin Martin or Brad Peacock out of the gate. Instead, they’ll get Justin Verlander (73 FIP-), Gerrit Cole (59 FIP-), and Zack Greinke (66 FIP-). No American League club can unleash a better rotation this October, and even if the Astros only let their horses gallop through the lineup twice each start, they’ll still have an advantage in that department. Read the rest of this entry »

Nelson Cruz was 25 years old when he made his major league debut in 2005. At the conclusion of the 2008 season, he was 28 years old and had a .743 OPS in 611 career plate appearances. By and large, he was little more than a fringe player with an uncertain future in the game, his third decade on planet earth looming on the horizon.

Since that time he’s been one of the game’s most prolific hitters. From 2009 through this past season, Cruz has slashed .280/.349/.537, with 379 home runs. No player in either league has gone deep more often over that stretch. And he’s showing no signs of slowing down. At age 39, the Fountain of Youth firmly within his grasp, Cruz just banged out 41 home runs, and logged a career-high 1.031 OPS, in his first season with the Minnesota Twins.

Cruz sat down to talk about his career path, and his overall approach to hitting, when the playoffs-bound Twins visited Fenway Park in early September.

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David Laurila: Is hitting simple, or is it complicated?

Nelson Cruz: “When you do it good, it’s really simple. When you’re struggling, it’s really difficult. In my case, it’s about how my body feels. If I wake up and feel energized and fresh, I know I’m going to have a good day because my swing is going to be fluid. On days where my body isn’t rested enough, I feel like I have to force my swing to go through the zone.

“That said, you do the repetition every day, so even without thinking your swing goes through the same path — it does what you practice over and over. So it’s easy, but at the same time, it can get complicated on you.”

Laurila: Your career didn’t take off until you were in your late 20s. Was the impetus for that breakthrough more mental or physical in nature?

Cruz: “I think everything, but the mental part is the one… just to be able to have an approach every day, to have a routine to follow. You wake up and you know what you’re going to do to prepare for that game. You know what you’re going to be thinking at the plate — you’re going to have an idea of what to expect from the pitchers, and the situations, you’re going to face that day.”

Laurila: Were you an immature hitter early in your career? Read the rest of this entry »