Archive for Daily Graphings

Blue Jays Prospect Samad Taylor Looks To Hit His Stride

Samad Taylor is better than what he showed last season with the Lansing Lugnuts. In 530 plate appearances with Toronto’s Midwest League affiliate, the 20-year-old second baseman slashed an anemic .228/.319/.387. Despite those hide-your-eyes numbers, he is, in the words of Blue Jays farm director Gil Kim, “such an exciting player.”

Taylor’s tools are beyond reproach. Drafted by the Indians out of a Corona, California high school in 2016, he more than held his own in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. He continued to impress in 2017 — this time in the New York-Penn League — and the Blue Jays took notice. Bullish on his potential, Toronto acquired Taylor, along with southpaw Thomas Pannone, at that year’s trade deadline in exchange for Joe Smith.

When I talked to him last August, the youngster admitted to having lost his offensive identity. Rather than staying within himself, he had been trying to turn on balls he should have been taking up the middle and to the opposite field. And not only was he chasing pitches out of the zone, he was failing to square up fastballs in the zone. Worse yet, he “kept doing the same stuff that wasn’t working.” Read the rest of this entry »


Frank Robinson, Superstar Slugger and Trailblazer (1935-2019)

Frank Robinson always went into second like a guy jumping through a skylight with a drawn Luger.”
Jim Murray, Los Angeles Times, May 10, 1974

Frank Robinson may not have had the mythic grace of Willie Mays running down a drive to center field, or the staying power of Hank Aaron as he chased Babe Ruth’s hallowed home run record, but the mark he left on baseball, through the combination of his supreme talent and white-hot intensity, was of similar caliber. Though he never played in the Negro Leagues, as both Mays and Aaron briefly did, he was the spiritual heir to Jackie Robinson in bringing the Negro Leagues’ hard-charging style of play to the majors, and in blazing a trail beyond his playing days. At the tail end of a 21-year major league career that made him a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Robinson became the majors’ first African-American manager, and he spent more than 40 years working in baseball at the managerial and executive level.

Robinson passed away on Thursday at the age of 83 after battling cancer. Since 2015, he had served as a special advisor to the Commissioner and the honorary president of the American League, the final lines on one of the fullest resumés any player has ever assembled. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 34 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Blue Jays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 19.9 AAA 3B 2019 70
2 Bo Bichette 20.9 AA SS 2020 60
3 Danny Jansen 23.8 MLB C 2019 50
4 Nate Pearson 22.5 A+ RHP 2020 50
5 Jordan Groshans 19.2 R 3B 2022 45+
6 Sean Reid-Foley 23.4 MLB RHP 2019 45
7 Kevin Smith 22.6 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Adam Kloffenstein 18.5 R RHP 2022 45
9 Eric Pardinho 18.1 R RHP 2021 45
10 Trent Thornton 25.4 AAA RHP 2019 45
11 Billy McKinney 24.5 MLB LF 2019 40+
12 Cavan Biggio 23.8 AA 2B 2020 40
13 T.J. Zeuch 23.5 AA RHP 2019 40
14 Hector Perez 22.7 AA RHP 2020 40
15 Leonardo Jimenez 17.7 R SS 2023 40
16 Orelvis Martinez 17.2 R SS 2023 40
17 Rowdy Tellez 23.9 MLB 1B 2019 40
18 Gabriel Moreno 19.0 R C 2023 40
19 Griffin Conine 21.6 A- RF 2020 40
20 Miguel Hiraldo 18.4 R 3B 2022 40
21 Chavez Young 21.6 A CF 2020 40
22 Reese McGuire 23.9 MLB C 2018 40
23 Anthony Alford 24.5 MLB CF 2018 40
24 Yennsy Diaz 22.2 A+ RHP 2020 40
25 Samad Taylor 20.6 A 2B 2022 40
26 Patrick Murphy 23.7 AA RHP 2019 35+
27 Alejandro Kirk 20.3 R C 2022 35+
28 Kevin Vicuna 21.1 A+ SS 2021 35+
29 Elvis Luciano 19.0 R RHP 2019 35+
30 Emanuel Vizcaino 19.5 R RHP 2023 35+
31 Hagen Danner 20.4 R C 2023 35+
32 Otto Lopez 20.4 A- SS 2022 35+
33 Cal Stevenson 22.4 R CF 2021 35+
34 Alejandro Melean 18.3 R RHP 2023 35+
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70 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 70
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
65/70 80/80 65/70 40/30 45/45 60/60

The best prospect in baseball, Guerrero hit a superhuman .381/.437/.636 across 95 games (mostly at Double and Triple-A) despite being about six years younger than the other athletes in the Eastern and International Leagues. The ball doesn’t just sound different off of his bat; when he really lays into one, you can feel a thump inside your chest, as if someone set off a firework at home plate. It’s explosive, beautiful, and paradoxically violent considering that Vladimir is so childlike in his shape and demeanor. He plays with a vivacious enthusiasm, totally unashamed of his own at times bizarre mannerisms, as if the way he feels when playing elite pro baseball is how most of us did with a wiffle ball in our hands during adolescence. (Late during Fall League, he was cranky and petulant with umpires.)

But his is not a childlike stature. His listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds is a farce, and on the few occasions that Guerrero and Peter Alonso (who is listed at 6-foot-3, 245) were standing near one another during Fall League, Vlad was clearly the larger human being. While he reaches an almost shocking top speed on the bases given his size, Guerrero does have lateral mobility issues that impact his range at third base. He is very likely to move to first base or DH at some point in his early 20s, but leaving him at third, even if he’s not very good there, might help motivate him to keep his weight in check for as long as possible, something that could be more important than the quality of his play in the field since Vlad had knee issues during the 2018 season.

Really though, it matters very little where he ends up playing. This is the best hitter in the minors and the stick will play anywhere. For at least two years now people around baseball, including the late Mel Didier, swore that Guerrero would be ready for and competing in the majors before he turned 20. Toronto’s desire to maintain control of his talent for as long as possible scuttled that notion late last summer when they chose not to promote him, and Vlad will turn 20 in March before this season even starts. He should be up early this year, and immediately become one of the game’s most exciting, productive hitters. He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Lakewood HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 60/60 40/55 45/45 45/50 60/60

There’s some contextual disappointment surrounding Bichette’s 2018 statline because he didn’t recreate his video game numbers from the year before, but he still netted an incredible 61 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old at Double-A. We remain skeptical of his long term viability at shortstop, where he continues to see most of his reps, but his arm is plus and teams are growing increasingly willing to put players with limited lateral quickness at short if it means shoehorning a special offensive talent into the position, and Bichette is one.

Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter where he ends up playing defense because his bat is likely to profile. He has scintillating bat speed, and Bichette’s hand-eye coordination and bat control are an effective foil for the garage band noisiness of his swing, which hasn’t negatively impacted his ability to make contact in pro ball. Bichette ditches his leg kick with two strikes, something we’re not certain is all that helpful based on visual evidence. Ideally, Bichette will start lifting the ball more often (he has a league-average ground ball rate right now) and turn some of these doubles into homers, but it’s hard to justify making a change when he has been wildly successful so far. Status quo Bo is still a doubles machine who probably stays on the infield, and is a likely All-Star.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 16th Round, 2013 from West HS (WI) (TOR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 40/45 30/30 45/50 40/40

A 2017 Jansen breakout coincided with good health and a pair of prescription lenses. He walked more than he struck out across three minor league levels, and rose to Triple-A and into our overall top 100. He had a similarly strong 2018, which included a Futures Game invite, a .390 OBP at Triple-A, and then a strong 30-game big league stint in August and September, all reinforcing that Jansen’s 2017 breakout was legitimate. A solid if unspectacular defender, Jansen’s pop times were depressed during his big league cameo, hovering between 2.05 and 2.10, both below average for a catcher. But he’s an average receiver and ball-blocker, and is a perfectly acceptable defensive catcher without a disqualifying shortcoming.

Where Jansen shines is in the batter’s box. His hands work in a tight loop, giving Jansen the capacity to catch velocity and still lift the baseball, and he’s strong enough to muscle out balls to his pull-side, though to this point his approach has yielded more doubles than homers. He is a pull-only plodder and he’ll likely always be a low BABIP guy, and it’s possible major league pitchers will find ways to attack him in ways that limit his power output, but he’s going to make a lot of contact and reach base, which, at catcher, could make him an All-Star.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Central Florida JC (FL) (TOR)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/80 60/65 50/55 45/55 35/45 95-100 / 104

We still know very little about Pearson compared to most 22-year-old pitching prospects. He popped up seemingly out of nowhere as a sophomore at a lesser Florida junior college but quickly entered the first round discussion when JuCo ball kicked off in January of 2017. As the draft approached, Pearson was showing better secondary stuff in games and bumping 100 mph in bullpen sessions for scouts. He forced his way up draft boards even though teams had little history with him, and some were skeptical of the new velocity or concerned it would lead to injury.

Pearson made seven short but dominant appearances in the Northwest League during the summer and was poised to begin 2018 at Hi-A Dunedin (an aggressive assignment), but he suffered an intercostal strain and began the season on the DL. In his final extended spring rehab start, he was sitting 94-96 and touching 98 with the fastball. He finally toed a Florida State League rubber that week and lasted 1.2 innings before a comebacker struck his wrist and forearm and fractured his ulna. The injury ended his regular season after just five outs.

After rest and some rehab during instructs, Pearson went to Arizona for the Fall League. His stuff was electric there, his fastball always sitting 95-99 and cresting 100 mph often. He threw a 104 mph fastball and a 95 mph slider during the Fall Stars game, and he was able to dump his upper-70s curveball in for strikes throughout his six-week tenure, though he threw no changeups. Pearson was also horribly wild at times. It’s fair to conclude that rust was to blame for his occasional wildness but because the pro side of the industry has seen so little of Pearson, it’s impossible to know for sure.

There’s a strong possibility that he just ends up in the bullpen, but if he does and he breathes one-inning fire like he did during Fall Stars, he basically has Aroldis Chapman’s stuff (though perhaps not the same extension or approach angle). Provided he stays healthy, Pearson’s future is bright, albeit unclear. He’s likely to be handled with care for a while in order to keep him healthy and manage his workload after what was essentially a lost 2018, but given the wide variance and top shelf stuff, there is still frontline starter potential.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Magnolia HS (TX) (TOR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/65 20/55 55/50 45/50 60/60

Groshans immediately stood out to scouts on the showcase circuit, showing a Josh Donaldson starter kit with similar swing mechanics, a plus raw power projection, a plus arm, and a third base defensive fit. He essentially held serve on that first impression and went 12th overall to the Jays out of the same Texas high school as the Jays’ second round pick, Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans isn’t quite the same level athlete as Donaldson, and there are contact concerns with an active swing like that, but there are some bat-to-ball skills and plenty of mistake power he can already tap into, as shown in a loud debut in the GCL. Many of the pro scouts who saw Groshans weren’t fans and saw below average tools in their looks when he fatigued late in the pro season, but the things to watch for here are the plate discipline and contact skills, because the position and power aren’t really up for debate right now.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Sandalwood HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/50 45/50 45/45 91-96 / 97

Reid-Foley has been a similar pitcher from his junior year of high school all the way to his fifth year of pro ball in 2018. His arm action and delivery are a little stiff, and his command isn’t quite enough to be a traditional starter, but he’s stayed healthy and flashes two plus pitches with knowledge of the right way to sequence them, if not always execute them flawlessly. The Jays will continue to run him out there as a starter — he made 31 starts and threw 163 innings last season across three levels — but most agree this is more of a multi-inning or high-leverage reliever, as opposed to a traditional starter. The pure stuff would fit any role on a staff, but the quality of the strikes (his command) is the issue, rather than the amount of strikes (his control), which was evident from his 5.13 ERA in his major league debut in 2018.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Maryland (TOR)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/55 40/50 50/50 40/45 55/55

Smith was noticed early in his career at Maryland for showing early round tools as a defender who can stay in the middle infield with above average raw power and some feel to hit. The feel to hit came into question in his draft year, as his swing got a little too pull/power oriented, helping him slip to the fourth round. The Jays rave about Smith’s makeup and preparation, and how he spearheaded the adjustments to his swing to have a shorter path to the ball and increase his contact ability. He now has a flatter-planed swing, and one scout compared his offense to Jordy Mercer, while another thinks Smith is a 50 hitter with 50 game power. Most scouts think he’s fringy at shortstop despite a plus arm, and would shift him to second base long-term for the best fit, where he’s got a chance to be above average. An 85 to 100 wRC+ with solid average defense at second base is worth 2-something WAR, so while it isn’t sexy, there’s some performance here, real changes to explain it, and a pretty good chance to be a 50 or 55 FV big leaguer.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Magnolia HS (TX) (TOR)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 40/50 35/50 89-94 / 96

Kloffenstein was the Blue Jays third pick in the 2018 draft from the same high school as Groshans, but it appears the Jays had the 12th and 88th overall picks evaluated much closer in talent than the picks themselves would indicate. Groshans got slightly below-slot bonus (17th highest in the draft) while Kloffenstein was well above-slot at $2.45 million (29th highest bonus). We ranked them 28th (Groshans) and 42nd (Kloffenstein) in our pre-draft rankings. Kloffenstein is a prototypical projection Texas arm, with a lanky frame, loose arm action, occasional mid-90s velo, and an above average breaking ball; some scouts saw parallels to Michael Kopech, projecting Kloffenstein to throw 100 mph in the next couple years. He didn’t pitch much in pro ball or instructs as Toronto was managing his innings and getting him used to the pro schedule. Kloffenstein’s main objectives will be to get more innings, stay healthy, and keep progressing, as he only showed mid-90s velocity and starter feel at times in the spring. Toronto’s bet is a bit speculative, based on projection more than performance.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Brazil (TOR)
Age 18.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 90-94 / 96

Pardinho was one of the more celebrated 16-year-old pitchers to sign in recent memory, drawing a $1.4 million bonus in 2017, which was behind only Shohei Ohtani among his pitching peers in the class. Pardinho grew up in Brazil, which has a large Japanese population and he has some Japanese heritage; his windup clearly points to a Japanese influence.

The issue here is that Pardinho is listed at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, and isn’t much bigger than that right now, though he has a sturdy build. 18-year-old pitchers need to have big velocity, or projection to add velocity, to be top prospects since they generally start losing velocity in their mid-20s; that innate velocity, or projection for it, offers some margin for error. There are exceptions to this benchmark, like Zack Greinke, cases where a pitcher has been a pitchability type with above average stuff from his teenage days all the way into a big league career, but those instances are very rare. Pardinho will sit 92-95 and hit 96 mph early in outing and settle around 90-93 later. His curveball flashed above average as an amateur and he mixed in a slider that lagged behind, but those two pitches are both average to above now. They’re different pitches but still can run together at times, common for a younger pitcher. Parindho’s changeup is his fourth pitch now and it’s around average, but he separated himself with above average command projection, which helped him post gaudy numbers in his pro debut in the Appalachian League at 17.

Pardinho is undoubtedly advanced and projects as a No. 3 or 4 starter if things go well, but he was essentially pitching like a college senior in a league where a college senior can dominate and then never get to Double-A. Pardinho is a prospect because he’s advanced enough to pitch like a 22-year-old when he’s 17 years old. We’d just like to see either his stuff improve — or hold that velocity for the whole game — or see performance against more advanced hitters before we shoot him up the list like he’s the next Greinke.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from North Carolina (HOU)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 97

Thornton spent 2018 at Triple-A Fresno before he was effectively showcased in the Arizona Fall League. He has bat-missing, big league stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in multi-inning Fall League appearances, and sitting comfortably in the 95-96 range when he was asked to air it out for a single inning. Thornton also has elite breaking ball spin rates. His 12-6 curveball spins in excess of 3,000 rpm and his firm, upper-80s slider/cutter often approaches that mark, which is rare for a breaking ball that hard. He also has a unique delivery that disorients hitters, during which his arm wraps behind his lower back. His arm action is ugly but, short of a 7-day DL stint this year after he was hit with a comebacker, Thornton hasn’t been hurt as a pro.

His usage has been atypical, however. His starts were often spaced out by seven or eight days in 2018, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to have that kind of recovery time between turns on a big league pitching staff. If asked to throw every fifth day, his stuff may not be as nasty as it was this year. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter but may also be deployed in a multi-inning relief role.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Plano West HS (TX) (NYY)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 55/55 50/45 45/50 40/40

McKinney’s batted ball profile shifted dramatically after the Yankees acquired him from the Cubs in the Aroldis Chapman deal. Since high school, he had been a feel-for-contact corner guy with batting practice power that didn’t manifest in games, but the Yankees got his ground ball rate down from 42% to 30% and he started to mash before they flipped him to Toronto for JA Happ. He hit for power in a prolonged big league look but struggled badly against breaking stuff, something that may be an issue moving forward. McKinney doesn’t have a whole lot of offensive wiggle room because he’s so limited on defense, but the hit/power combo suggests he is a Seth Smith-like corner platoon bat who’s ready right now.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Notre Dame (TOR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 55/55 45/50 45/40 40/45 50/50

Biggio opted to attend Notre Dame rather than sign with the Phillies out of high school, and he had two bad years there before turning in a solid junior season. He didn’t hit for power in pro ball until he reached Double-A in 2018, where Biggio exploded for 26 home runs, saw his walk rate climb all the way to 18%, and swiped 20 bags.

Nothing about Biggio’s swing is markedly different than it was in college. He’s tightened the circle made by his ritualistic, pre-swing bat swirl, and his hands load a little bit lower now than they used to, but mostly Biggio just has good feel for low-ball contact despite the upright nature of his swing, and has plus bat speed.

There’s skepticism surrounding Biggio’s ability to play second base, so the Blue Jays began expanding his defensive horizons last year with time at first and third base, as well as both outfield corners, which is where Biggio saw the most action in the Arizona Fall League. The uppercut nature of Biggio’s swing is going to lead to some strikeouts and his aggregate offensive profile looks much less promising in an outfield corner than it would at second base. If he could indeed play all of those positions, he’d be a very interesting Swiss Army knife with power, but realistically he profiles as a second-division regular or platoon outfielder.

13. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Pittsburgh (TOR)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 50/55 45/50 55/60 90-93 / 94

Zeuch doesn’t have dominant stuff but he’s a keen sequencer with a firm grasp on how best to deploy his pitches to efficiently tally outs. He mostly pitches to contact with a low-90s sinker that has very steep downhill plane thanks to Zeuch’s height and fairly upright delivery. It’s helped him generate ground ball rates near 60% as a pro. Both of his breaking balls survive because Zeuch locates them. He’ll get ahead of hitters with his curveball and keep his slider just off the plate away from righties. Offspeed development remains key as Zeuch enters 2019 as a non-roster invitee. He may be a candidate for a true splitter, or modified version of it, rather than a straight changeup if the Jays want to try to turn him into Doug Fister, with whom Zeuch shares several other traits. Barring something unforeseen, like a new grip giving Zeuch a dominant secondary pitch, he projects as a backend innings eater.

14. Hector Perez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/70 50/60 45/50 40/55 30/40 92-96 / 98

Perez was part of the package Houston sent to Toronto in the unscrupulous Roberto Osuna deal. His stuff was down just a tad last year, with his fastball more often 93-95 than 94-97 based on our reports from the previous year. But Perez still has nasty stuff and managed to strike out 133 hitters in 115 innings, mostly at Double-A. His stiff, long arm action significantly inhibits Perez’s ability to throw strikes and he unanimously projects into a bullpen. But because he has three plus pitches (and we have the fastball projected as a 70 out of the bullpen), he could be a dominant late or multi-inning arm. He’s one of many new faces on Toronto’s 40-man and could debut in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Panama (TOR)
Age 17.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/40 55/50 45/55 50/55

Jimenez signed for $825,000 in 2017 out of Panama but is often compared to Venezuelan shortstops (like Vicuna, No. 28 on this list) for his advanced, non-flashy feel for the game. Vicuna is still the best defender in the system but Jimenez isn’t far behind him, with one scout grading his hands as a 70. We’re more bullish on Jimenez than Vicuna because there’s better rhythm, swing mechanics, and strength to his offensive game, so there’s a better chance for viable performance. Jimenez also gets high marks for his intelligence and makeup; he’s already fluent in English as a 17-year-old.

16. Orelvis Martinez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 17.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/60 20/50 45/40 30/45 50/55

Martinez was one of the most explosive talents in the 2018 July 2nd class, getting the second highest bonus at $3.5 million, behind only 22-year-old Marlins center fielder Victor Victor Mesa. Martinez is currently ranked behind a number of players in his class because we still aren’t sure how his contact skills will project. He has big bat speed and projects for at least 60 raw power, along with sticking somewhere in the infield. We aren’t sure how his body will develop, and thus the raw power and the position where he’ll land are open questions. More importantly, he takes a high-effort, torqued-up cut at the ball, and the Jays like that he has eye-hand contact, but there’s still a ways to go to turn this intriguing ball of clay into a more finished product.

Drafted: 30th Round, 2013 from Elk Grove HS (CA) (TOR)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 60/60 55/55 40/30 40/45 30/30

Tellez had a successful second tour of Triple-A in 2018, and reached Toronto in September just weeks after his mother, who had been fighting brain cancer for a while, passed away. His first six big league hits were doubles, a record, and then opposing pitchers began to make adjustments, and Tellez cooled, often chasing stuff out of the zone. He’s vulnerable to velocity up and was uncharacteristically tempted by soft stuff beneath the zone. He crushes mistakes and has natural low-ball ability, as well as feel for lacing hard gap liners to left field if fastballs away from him catch too much of the plate. It’s tough to hit enough to profile at 1B/DH, and we think Tellez is more of a platoon or second division regular. He should get an opportunity to be just that if something happens to Kendrys Morales and/or Justin Smoak.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 30/45 45/40 40/50 55/55

Moreno converted from shortstop to catching right around when he signed out of Venezuela, and while he’s just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he’s taken to the change and scouts think he can stick behind the plate. He’s twitchy and has plus bat speed with good bat control but can get over-aggressive at times and needs to tighten his zone. Moreno’s high-energy approach endears him to scouts and teammates, and there’s a reasonable chance he’s a backup, with some possibility these tools can turn into a starter down the road.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Duke (TOR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 30/55 45/40 45/50 60/60

Conine is the son of former Marlins great Jeff Conine and Griffin looked like a sure first round pick in 2018 after a dominating summer on the Cape. Thing haven’t gone so well for him since then. Conine bulked up and got a bit stiffer, had a brutal start to the 2018 season, but closed well, finding a better approach to make more consistent contact. The Jays scooped him up as another legacy prospect in the system, but he was popped for PED’s (ritalinic acid, a stimulant) in November and will serve a 50-game suspension to start 2019. At his best, Conine has 60 or 65-grade raw power from the left side, a plus arm that helps him fit in right field, and good enough contact skills for a 45 or 50-grade bat to allow him to get to his power. He can get too uphill, aggressive, and pull-happy at times, so there’s some concern, beyond the suspension, about how much of his Cape performance will show up in pro ball.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 18.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 30/50 50/40 40/45 55/55

Dominican Summer League stats are largely meaningless, but every year there is a prospect or two whose statline is so utterly dominant that it provokes immediate re-evaluation. Hiraldo, who was hitting .366/.429/.560 when July began, was one of those DSL hitters in 2018. When prompted about Hiraldo, pro scouts with coverage in the DSL reiterated what was said about him when he was an amateur. He was physically mature for his age, stocky, and strong, far more muscular than most of his DSL peers. He has plus bat speed, average power right now, and tracks pitches well and has some barrel control, so while Hirlado’s physical maturity should cause one to discount his statistical performance, he is a good offensive prospect.

There’s not much room left on his frame for good weight, and he has fairly limited power projection left. Scouts already anticipate a move off of shortstop to either second or third base. Hiraldo’s offensive talent could be sufficient to profile every day at either spot, just probably not as a star and probably not for several years considering the passive developmental track the Jays took with him last year when he probably should have been in the GCL for more than a 10-game August jaunt.

21. Chavez Young, CF
Drafted: 39th Round, 2016 from Faith Baptist HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 40/45 55/55 45/50 60/60

It seems like every year a hitter or two comes out of nowhere and causes quite a ruckus in Lansing. This year it was Young, who hit .285/.363/.445 with 50 extra-base hits and 44 steals for the Lugnuts. The travel ball circuit is not kind to economically disadvantaged families, and part of the reason Young was under-scouted as an amateur, as he told our own David Laurila, was because his family could not afford to attend heavily scouted showcases.

Another reason he may have slid toward the end of the draft was because he was constantly moving around. He was under the international scouting umbrella while he was young and living in the Bahamas, then spent his early high school years in Florida before relocating to Georgia for his senior season. It’s likely that three separate scouts in each org were responsible for scouting and gauging Young’s signability.

The Blue Jays got a deal done for $200,000 and Young has been a strong early-career performer. Pro scouts see him as a bit of a tweener but think there’s a chance he might be an everyday center fielder if absolutely everything comes together. He’s not a typical center field sprinter (our sources all have either a 50 or 55 on his speed) but he’s instinctive, and fine there for now. If Young does move to a corner, his hit/power combination is on the fringe of profiling. A switch-hitter, Young has power from the right side of the plate but he’s strikeout prone due to a lack of bat control. As a lefty, he has a gap-to-gap approach and good bat control, but not typical over-the-fence thump.

It’s possible that, even with middling offensive ability, Young could be such an excellent corner defender that he plays everyday anyway, and his makeup is universally lauded, so we like his chances of reaching and staying in the majors as some kind of role player.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Kentwood HS (WA) (PIT)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 20/35 30/30 50/60 60/60

The Blue Jays have a terrific young catching tandem in Danny Jansen and McGuire, who we project to play a glove-centric second fiddle to Jansen’s bat for the next half decade. McGuire has been lauded for his defense since high school, and he remains excellent back there, and has a plus arm. He has struggled in the past to lift the ball, and while he showed some movement in that regard last year, it’s unlikely that McGuire hits enough to profile as an everyday catcher.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2012 from Petal HS (MS) (TOR)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 40/45 70/70 50/55 40/40

Alford had a tumultuous and eventful amateur athletic career. He starred as a dual threat high school quarterback in Mississippi, and continued playing football in college even after the Jays, who at the time were able to offer Alford a now defunct two-sport deal structured to incentivize him to eventually commit to baseball, drafted and signed him. His college football career and home life were both tumultuous, as Southern Miss went winless during Alford’s first year under center, and several members of his family had legal troubles. Alford eventually transferred to Ole Miss, where he was asked to play safety, but that didn’t last long and he soon committed full time to baseball.

He’s dealt with constant injury as a pro and has issues with quality of contact when healthy. Though he’s a remarkable athlete with huge raw power and speed, we’re bearish on Alford’s ability to hit breaking stuff and do enough damage to play everyday. He projects as a bench outfielder. Because Alford has only been totally devoted to baseball since 2015, there’s a chance some of what currently impairs his on-field production can be remedied, but he has to stay on the field to develop that stuff.

24. Yennsy Diaz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/45 40/45 92-95 / 97

A boiler plate middle relief prospect, Diaz was added to the 40-man this offseason and may debut in 2019. Though he has been developed as a starter to this point, command and repertoire depth limitations have scouts universally projecting Diaz to the bullpen. He has a slightly cross-bodied delivery, and he muscles up and slings in mid-90s fastballs and tilting, two-planed breakers. His changeup is firm, but continued reps in a rotation should help improve his feel for it and better prepare him to deal with left-handed hitters in the big leagues.

25. Samad Taylor, 2B
Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from Corona HS (CA) (CLE)
Age 20.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/40 60/60 40/55 45/45

Taylor signed with Cleveland for $125,000 in the 10th round in 2016 out of a southern California high school. The report then was an explosive, quick second baseman with some tools who could use some refinement. That’s still mostly the report, but Taylor’s 2018 full season debut was excellent, hitting above league average in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old most of the year, despite a .270 BABIP. Some players naturally have a lower BABIP, but Taylor is a player who should have a higher-than-normal BABIP given his plus speed (44 stolen bases in 2018), solid plate discipline (11% BB to 19% K), and surprising game power for his size and age (nine home runs and 32 doubles).

Taylor can still make a boneheaded play defensively, use improper footwork at the keystone, or try to do too much at the plate, but the tools are here for a low-end everyday second baseman if things continue progressing.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2013 from Hamilton HS (AZ) (TOR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Murphy has persevered through multiple injuries and surgeries (Tommy John and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, just to name two) and finally had a full, healthy season in 2018, and was added to Toronto’s 40-man in November. His fastball is very hard and Murphy throws a lot of strikes, typically in the upper half of the zone. At times his heater has natural cut, he’ll flash an occasional plus curveball, and his changeup got much better throughout 2018. His injury history and violent, somewhat awkward overhand delivery are each of concern to teams, which generally have him projected in a bullpen role.

There’s sufficient strike-throwing here for Murphy to continue developing as a starter, and he could pitch at the back of a rotation, especially if his changeup keeps improving.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Mexico (TOR)
Age 20.3 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The first thing anyone talks about when Kirk’s name comes up is his weight. He’s built exactly like former A’s catcher Jeremy Brown, and one source body comp’d him to Chris Farley noting that, like Farley, Kirk is deceptively agile for his size.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 140 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Vicuna (pronounced like Acuña) signed for $350,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela and fits the archetype of the Venezuelan shortstop, with excellent feel for the game and instincts to get the most out of his tools. He was considered frail-looking at signing and has put on some strength since then, but still needs to add more to have a chance to make an impact offensively.

Vicuna is a plus runner who has above average hands, range, and arm strength, so even just hitting for consistent contact with enough power to be respected would be enough to make him a solid big leaguer. The Jays are encouraged by his 60 PA in the Venezuelan Winter League, where Vicuna had eight walks to 13 strikeouts, but also had just one extra base hit. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the system and, depending on which scout you ask, his makeup grades anywhere from 60 to 80, so we think he’s worth inclusion on the list.

29. Elvis Luciano, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Luciano was acquired by Kansas City in the trade that sent Jon Jay to Arizona, then selected by Toronto in the Rule 5 draft. He was the youngest player picked in the Rule 5 by a significant margin and if he makes the Jays’ Opening Day roster, he’ll be the first player born this century to play in the big leagues.

Though he’ll touch 96, Luciano’s fastball sits in the 90-94 range, and he has scattershot command of it, especially late in starts. His frame is less projectable than the typical teenager’s, so there may not be much more velo coming as he ages, but he has plenty of present arm strength and an above-average breaking ball, so there’s a chance he makes the Jays’ roster in a relief role. He has No. 4 starter upside if his below-average changeup and command progress, but Rule 5 selections who stick often put developmental priorities on the back burner and instead lean on what they’re already good at in order to succeed right now.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Vizcainno is a fairly standard teenage projection arm, perhaps slightly raw for his age from a strike-throwing perspective, though that’s understandable given the mantis-like length of his limbs. He’s an above-average athlete and there’s a good chance his release consistency becomes refined with more experience, though he may always have limited pinpoint command because his trebuchet-like overhand arm action makes it hard to work east and west. That’s not to say it’s a bad delivery. Vizcaino’s arm action is very efficient, and his vertical slot gives his promising curveball an awful lot of depth. It’s easy to envision Vizcaino working up and down with his fastball and curveball in concert with one another in a relief role, even if he never develops average control.

There are lots of promising components here, they’re just a little less polished than is ideal for a prospect who’ll be 20 this year.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Huntington Beach HS (CA) (TOR)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Danner burst onto the scouting scene after his sophomore year of high school, showing low-90s stuff and a three pitch mix with the look of a future high pick as a pitcher. He maintained his above average stuff throughout most of his prep career, but the more scouts saw him behind the plate, the more they liked him long-term as a catching prospect.

Eventually, the Jays took Danner in the second round of the 2017 draft as a catcher, which marks the first time Danner hasn’t been splitting his focus on the diamond. He’s only played 66 pro games due to some minor injuries, so we haven’t seen as much as we’d like with him being relatively new to this position. He has above average to plus arm strength and raw power projection, and we think he can stick behind the plate, but the hit tool may take a little time, which is the main concern going forward.

32. Otto Lopez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A dual Dominican/Canadian citizen, Lopez was born in the Dominican Republic but his family moved to Montreal when he was 12, and he plays on Team Canada during international competition. That’s not to be confused with the Vancouver Canadians, the Blue Jays’ Northwest League affiliate for which Lopez also played last year, and played well. He walked more than he struck out, led the team in OBP, and saw action at every defensive position but catcher and first base as the club’s youngest member. A plus runner and above-average athlete, that kind of super utility role is Lopez’s realistic future projection. He has some feel for contact but will probably max out with 40 raw power, if that, so he’s unlikely to make strong enough contact to hit for as high an average as his pure bat-to-ball skills might indicate. Even if typical big league physicality never materializes, Lopez should be a versatile bench piece.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2018 from Arizona (TOR)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Stevenson was a 10th round senior sign out of Arizona, an afterthought until he went to the Appy League and hit a raucous .359/.494/.518 during the last two months of the season. Rookie-ball pitching is worse than what Stevenson faced in the Pac-12 and that performance should be considered with that fact in mind, but those numbers are exceptional and four corners scouts thought Stevenson, whose 2018 numbers at Arizona were worse than the previous year, was hurt during the spring. It’s possible pre-draft reports on Stevenson — plus runner, above-average bat, no clear defensive position, great makeup — were impacted by injury, and that Stevenson’s true talent is closer to how he performed during the summer, but the physical tools are indicative of a bench outfielder. Lansing is probably not going to clarify the situation next year because it’s so hitter-friendly, and we may have to wait until Stevenson gets a taste of Hi-A to know if the Jays have really found something.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The Blue Jays felt Melean was advanced enough for the GCL at age 17, and while he was a little more wild than is ideal, he is rather advanced for his age and has a chance to be a backend starter. Though Melean is less physically projectable than the typical teen, his fastball already resides in the 90-94 range and he has an above-average, upper-70s curveball. He has feel for locating a changeup but it lacks movement right now, so this, as well as fastball command, would seem to be logical developmental priorities moving forward.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Corner Bats
Ryan Noda, 1B
Chad Spanberger, 1B
Mc Gregory Contreras, RF
Josh Palacios, RF
Demi Orimoloye, RF

Noda is extremely selective and has walked in over 20% of his plate appearances as a pro, but he’s a stiff, below-average athlete and needs to keep performing like this for the industry to view him as more than a statistical curiosity. Spanberger has 70 raw power and went nuts at hitter-friendly Asheville against pitching worse than what he saw in college before he was traded to Toronto. He cooled in the FSL afterward. Contreras has plus bat speed and power projection, a typical, high-risk right field profile, though he’s not a good defender yet. Palacios is also a corner guy with feel to hit but needs to find a way to tap into more power. Orimoloye was born in Nigeria and moved to Canada as a toddler. He was acquired from Milwaukee for Curtis Granderson just before the waiver deadline. Demi has plus raw but lacks feel to hit.

Polished Depth Arms
Thomas Pannone, LHP
Julian Merryweather, RHP
Josh Winckowski, RHP
Sean Wymer, RHP
Justin Maese, RHP
Zach Logue, LHP
Zach Jackson, RHP
Jackson McClelland, RHP
Jon Harris, RHP

Pannone has excellent changeup command but his limited velo and curveball likely cap his ceiling in the sixth starter area. Then with Cleveland, Merryweather was striking out a batter per inning at Double- and Triple-A in 2017 before he blew out late in the year and missed all of 2018. He’ll likely be back this year and could be a four-pitch reliever who relies heavily on velo. Winckowski may end up in a middle relief role. He sits 90-94 and has an above-average slider. Wymer was the club’s 2018 fourth rounder out of TCU. His stuff plays better out of the bullpen, where he’s 92-93 with command of a 55 curveball. Maese was a popup high schooler in tough-to-scout El Paso whose stuff has plateaued in the 45/50 area. Logue has 60 control of 45 stuff. Jackson has one of the more bizarre deliveries in baseball, and both he and McLelland have the stuff to be 40 FV relievers, but both are also very wild. Harris’ spin rates are strong but his fastball velocity has backed up since college.

Bench Types
Logan Warmoth, SS
Addison Barger, 3B
Forrest Wall, LF
Riley Adams, C
Max Pentecost, C/1B

After Warmoth’s pre-draft reports were divisive in 2017, when he was Toronto’s first rounder, they were consistently down throughout 2018. He may end up with an average bat and fringe power but he’s not likely to stay at short based on pro looks. He’s clearly been passed by several shortstops in the system. Barger has a plus-plus arm and played all over the infield last year but may only end up with 40 hit and power. We were too high on Wall last year. He can still run but maybe not well enough to play center field, which means he’s a contact-only left fielder. Adams is a physical beast with a plus arm and big raw power, but he swings and misses a lot due to lever length and his ceiling is that of a toolsy backup. Pentecost, like Wall, has never been quite the same since surgery and he’s a contact-only bat at a position that demands more.

System Overview

It’s hard to talk about this system and franchise without spending a good bit of time on Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. The previous regime not only landed a generational talent but one with ties to Canada, especially notable because of MLB’s clear marketing shortcomings. Vlad Jr. developed better than anyone expected and is one of the best prospects of recent memory.

The organization has hoarded players we consider 45s and 50s who couldn’t crack quality rosters in an attempt to prime the big league club with role players for the arrival of young stars like Vlad, Bichette, and Jansen. Not all of them will work out, but the list of players like this that the Blue Jays have acquired (Brandon Drury, Teoscar Hernandez, Trent Thornton, Randall Grichuk, David Paulino, Billy McKinney) is so long that enough of them should, enabling Toronto to build a competitive club around this wave of young talent.

This is almost the inverse of how most competitive sports teams are built, as franchise players are often the first ones in place and pieces are fit in around them. There still needs to be more pitching, though. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez both had down years and this farm system isn’t exactly packed with arms. They can improve in free agency but competitive staffs almost always need a lot of depth to fight through injuries, so we still expect Toronto to be in asset collection mode for another year or two before they feel comfortable pushing their chips in.


Phillies Acquire Great Catcher in Exchange for Mystery Box

Everyone is waiting for the Phillies to sign one of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. It seems almost inevitable that the Phillies will sign one of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado. There’s some chance it even happens today! Who knows? But while the world has waited for the Phillies to signal that they’re going for it, they’ve already added a new everyday outfielder in Andrew McCutchen. They’ve already added a new everyday shortstop in Jean Segura. They’ve already added a new late-inning reliever in David Robertson. And now they’ve added a new regular catcher.

Phillies get:

Marlins get:

And so ends the drawn-out, months-long Realmuto sweepstakes, that saw him connected to a couple handfuls of teams. Just last week, I thought Realmuto was going to be traded to the Reds. The Phillies came almost out of nowhere. But, like the Reds, they’ve spent the offseason acting aggressively, and I can’t imagine they’re finished. The NL Central is going to be a hell of a division. And, the NL East is going to be a hell of a division. The Marlins are going to get beat up on the regular as a consequence, but then, they knew what they were getting into.

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The Argument for J.T. Realmuto as Baseball’s Best Catcher

It feels like, any minute now, J.T. Realmuto will officially be on the move. He might even get officially traded while I’m busy writing this article. According to the latest reports, Realmuto is likely to be dealt to the Phillies, in exchange for a package including Sixto Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro (plus more). I don’t know what might be left for the teams to overcome. Again, press releases seem almost inevitable. With Sanchez as the centerpiece, the Marlins ought to be satisfied.

If and when this reaches a resolution, it’ll mark the end of a drawn-out sweepstakes. Realmuto always seemed like baseball’s most probable trade candidate. As much as the Marlins have wanted to keep him around, a contract extension requires interest from both parties, and Realmuto has wanted out. So a trade was going to happen. A trade involving some manner of top prospect was going to happen. What we didn’t know was where Realmuto would ultimately end up. He’s now linked to the Phillies. He’s been linked to the Reds. He’s been linked to the Braves, and the Padres, and the Dodgers, and the Rays, and even more teams on top of that. A whole lot of baseball has wanted J.T. Realmuto.

So let’s talk about that for a few minutes. For many of you, this will be simple review. But, why has Realmuto been in such demand? It’s because he might well be the best catcher in the game.

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The Royals Make a Bad Bullpen Better

Late Wednesday afternoon, word broke that the Royals were “closing in” on a one-year contract with 30-year-old reliever Brad Boxberger. Jon Heyman reported the deal will be for $2.2 million guaranteed, plus $1 million in incentives. Boxberger wasn’t one of our Top 50 Free Agents here at FanGraphs, so we don’t have a crowdsourced contract prediction on record, but his deal strikes me as right around what you’d expect given recent reliever deals (a rejuvenated Óliver Pérez, for example, just signed for $2.5 million, albeit with an option for 2020) and the fact that the Diamondbacks chose to non-tender Boxberger last fall rather than pay the $4.9 million he was expected to get in arbitration.

Boxberger was an All-Star as recently as 2015, when he saved 41 games and posted a 27% strikeout rate for the Rays. But he struggled badly in 2016 and ended the year with a 17% walk rate and an ugly 4.81 ERA. 2017 was a bit of an improvement on both fronts (the walk rate was back down to 9%, and the ERA to 3.38), but Boxberberg’s 2018 campaign in Arizona saw the seesaw dip back yet again, with a 4.39 ERA and 14% free pass rate. The difference between those two bad 2018 numbers, and his two good ones — a 30 percent strikeout rate and 32 saves — is probably what led Arizona to cut ties with their closer last fall. Arbitrators like save totals perhaps more than they should, and with Boxberger’s season having trended in the wrong direction (compare a first-half ERA of 3.06 to a second-half mark of 7.00), Arizona was clearly ready to move on.

How you feel about Boxberger’s ability to return to form in 2019 depends a great deal on whether you believe he can recover some fastball velocity, or offset the loss with an adjustment to his off-speed offerings. With the exception of a slider that he throws fairly infrequently (just 3% of the time in 2018), Boxberger is basically a two-pitch guy: he’s got a four-seam fastball that he throws up and away to lefties and down and away to righties, and a changeup, which he throws down and away from lefties and just plain down to righties. Unfortunately for the reliever, a slight decrease in fastball velocity (from 94 mph just three years ago to 92 mph last year) without an attendant decrease in changeup velocity has left the pitches too easy for batters to distinguish from each other, and last year saw Boxberger generate fewer swings on pitches outside the zone (28%) than ever before. When he was humming in 2015, that figure was 34%.

Still, if Boxberger is able to get some mustard back on his fastball or otherwise distinguish it more meaningfully from his changeup, there’s little reason to think he can’t put up strikeout numbers that more closely resemble last year’s impressive mark while simultaneously reducing his walk rate to a more reasonable level. If he can, it’ll be a boon for a Kansas City bullpen that was, to put it mildly, atrocious last year. Their collective FIP of 4.85 was, by a fair margin, the worst in the game (the runner-up Mets posted a 4.61 FIP; the 24-point gap between the two teams is the same as the difference between the Mets and the seventh-worst Reds). Their 5.04 ERA was second-worst. They struck out a league-low 7.31 batters per nine innings, and walked 4.15 (sixth-worst). Kelvin Herrera was pretty good for a little while there, but then he got traded. Brad Keller was ok, too. The rest of the Kansas City ‘pen was pretty awful. By WAR, only six teams in the last twenty years have been worse:

Worst Bullpens by WAR, 1999-2018
Team Team Relief WAR
2013 Astros -5.2
2016 Reds -3.8
2010 Diamondbacks -3.3
2007 Devil Rays -3.1
2002 Devil Rays -2.6
1999 Royals -2.4
2018 Royals -2.2

In signing Boxberger, the Royals have taken a positive step toward correcting their biggest weakness. According to Baseball-Reference, Kansas City has acquired nine players since November 1, excluding Boxberger. Five are position players. The other four are relievers. Of those four, just one — Jason Adam, signed as a free agent in mid-December — threw any major league relief innings at all in 2018. Another, Michael Ynoa, had some modest success for the White Sox in 2016 and 2017 but was released in March of 2018 and did not pitch in affiliated ball last season. Andrés Machado was last seen posting a 22.09 ERA for the 2017 Royals, and barely counts as an acquisition; he was non-tendered on November 30th and re-signed to a minor-league deal on December 3. Winston Abreu is 41 and last pitched in the majors in 2009, when he threw 3.2 innings for Tampa Bay and 2.1 Cleveland. I wish them all well, but All-Star arms they are not. Boxberger was, and at least could be again.

Even if the Royals had signed Andrew Miller, Adam Ottavino, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, and Craig Kimbrel this offseason, they likely wouldn’t have a winning team in 2019. As things stand, our depth charts have them besting only the Orioles in total roster WAR. There is, clearly, a lot of room to grow their win total without threatening Cleveland or even the Twins for the AL Central crown. But what we can say at this point is this: the 2018 Royals had one of the very worst bullpens of the last 20 years, and yesterday they went out and did something about it, despite having no real expectation of winning anything at all in 2019. I still think they could stand to bring on a few more relief pitchers, but in this era in which 30 teams seem to be in competition for the 2022 World Series but only ten or so are in competition for the one this October, there’s at least some consolation in what they did yesterday.


Let’s Talk About a Bunch of Proposed Changes to Baseball

You’re all a great resource, and I love a good poll. I just polled you on Tuesday! In light of how this offseason has gone, I asked whether you’d prefer an MLB-style offseason, or an NBA-style offseason. Sure, the timing of the poll might’ve somewhat biased the results, but, anyway, thousands of you have voted, and two-thirds of you say you’d prefer an NBA-esque feeding frenzy. Yeah, things would die down almost as quickly as they picked up, but that must be a hell of a high, when all the action happens at once. Baseball could never contend with that.

Now I’m back to poll again, because once more I want to solicit your opinions. MLB and the MLBPA have been talking, and as you can read in this article from Jeff Passan, the two sides have exchanged several proposed changes to the game’s competitive and economic structure. Nothing has actually been agreed to yet, and most of the proposals will remain on paper, but for now, we all get to consider a bunch of ideas. You might find some of them agreeable. You might find some of them disagreeable. That’s why I want to collect information.

As far as I can tell, Passan highlighted ten different proposals. You’ll find them below. Some of them are more vague than others, but we can make do with what we have. For each proposal, I’ll offer a brief explanation. And then there are two polls. The first simply asks whether you approve or disapprove of the proposal, as you understand it. The second asks how much you actually care. Are you very passionate, or is it a struggle to so much as muster an opinion? I look forward to the results from running these in tandem. I’ll probably revisit the data later this week.

Off we go! Thanks in advance for your collective participation.

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Mets Pitchers Adopted a Whole New Identity

With spring training just around the corner, I should remind you that you should feel safe ignoring just about everything anyone says. There’s so much noise, and so little signal. It makes sense that it would be that way, to be sure — it’s an optimistic time of year — but optimism has a tenuous relationship with the reality of the future. Every clubhouse has a great group of guys. Every team is talented enough to surprise some people. Every injury is buried in the past. Every new pitch is going to miss bats.

People say optimistic things about themselves, and coaches say optimistic things about strategy implementation. Here’s how these players are going to platoon. Here’s how the bullpen is going to shake out. Here’s how the team will fold in more shifts. How many times have we heard coaches say their clubs are going to run more often? The clubs typically don’t run more often. It’s just a thing to say when it’s still theoretical. When the games start to count, only then can you test one’s commitment to an idea.

With all of this in mind, I’d like to bring your attention to the 2018 Mets. The 2018 Mets operated under a new pitching coach, in Dave Eiland. Like many other coaches, Eiland voiced some ideas in spring training. But out of that fog, the Mets did something concrete. As is common, there was an idea. As is uncommon, there was subsequent follow-through.

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Ross Atkins on the Blue Jays’ Process

Ross Atkins was hired as Toronto’s Executive VP of Baseball Operations and General Manager in December 2015, shortly after Mark Shapiro was officially named the team’s President and CEO. Both came to the Blue Jays from Cleveland, where they’d worked together with the Indians for the past 15 years. A formidable pairing atop Toronto’s front office hierarchy, they are — as Atkins is quick to point out — nonetheless just two pieces of a much larger puzzle.

The Blue Jays have undergone organizational change in recent seasons, but the past six months stand out. John Gibbons was formally dismissed as manager in late September, and several members of his coaching staff followed him out the door. The roster has also undergone change. Troy Tulowitzki has departed, as have Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Curtis Granderson, Marco Estrada, and JA Happ. Notably, all of these player are 33 years old or older.

Fifty-three-year-old Charlie Montoyo is the biggest incoming name. The bench coach in Tampa Bay last year, Montoyo has replaced Gibbons in the manager’s chair. Four of his coaches are imports from other organizations, while two others were promoted from Toronto’s minor league system. Pete Walker and Luis Rivera are the only holdovers.

As is common within the industry, there have also been hirings, promotions, and the shifting of responsibilities throughout Toronto’s various departments. How do Atkins and Shapiro go about making such moves — not just in the front office, but across the board? Atkins addressed that question in a wide-ranging interview late last week. Read the rest of this entry »


Rockies and Arenado Approach the Summit of a Long-Term Deal

Nolan Arenado has ranked among the game’s elite third basemen for the past four seasons, and he’s already made headlines this winter. Last week, he and the Rockies averted an arbitration hearing when he agreed to a $26 million salary for 2019, a record for an arbitration-eligible player. Now, there’s optimism in Denver that the team could reach a longer-term deal that would keep Arenado in purple. It’s a move that not only would be in character for a franchise that has made a concerted attempt to keep its iconic players, but could also impact this winter’s frigid free agent market.

Arenado, who will turn 28 on April 16, is coming off a .297/.374/.561 showing with 38 homers, a 132 wRC+, and 5.7 WAR in 2018. He led the NL in home runs for the third year out of the past four, and while that feat owes much to Coors Field (he has an 87-71 home/road home run split in that span), improved plate discipline has helped him increase both his wRC+ and WAR every year since his 2013 rookie season. Last year’s incremental steps forward owe much to Arenado’s career-best 10.8% walk rate, more than double his 2013-15 mark (5.0%); that increase has keyed a 52-point rise in on-base percentage from his first three years (.318) to his last three (.370).

And then there’s the leather. Arenado has won a Gold Glove in each of his six seasons, and has won the Platinum Glove as the NL’s top overall defender, in each of the past two years; he also took home the Fielding Bible Award as the majors’ top third baseman annually from 2015-17. While UZR doesn’t value his defense nearly as highly as DRS (career totals of 37.6 and 109, respectively), the two marks converged last year (5.8 and 5, respectively). Beyond the numbers, his highlight clips are appointment viewing. Here is the MLB Network compilation of his dives, spins, barehanded grabs, and seemingly impossible throws that accompanied Arenado’s 2018 award wins:

And here’s perhaps his most famous play, his April 14, 2015 over-the-shoulder-and-over-the-tarp-roll catch of a foul ball:

This is an excellent, entertaining player, a franchise cornerstone who has helped take the Rockies to back-to-back playoff appearances for the first time in club history.

After making $17.75 million last year as part of a two-year, $29.5 million extension signed in January 2017, Arenado sought $30 million in arbitration, with the Rockies countering at $24 million. Even if he’d lost a hearing, he would have surpassed Josh Donaldson’s $23 million salary from last year with the highest one-year salary for an arbitration-eligible player. According to The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal, Arenado and the Rockies settled at $26 million after a face-to-face meeting:

Since then, Monfort has publicly expressed hope for the possibility of a long-term deal. On Monday, he told the Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders, “I’m optimistic that we are close enough that something will come about. It’s in Nolan’s hands, but my last impression with him is that this is something he wants to do.” While stressing that there was no timetable to complete a longer deal, Monfort added, “[W]hat I took out of [the meeting] was a good, sincere [attitude] of, ‘Let’s get this behind us, then let’s go on to the next step and see if we can work something out there.'”

Per to Saunders, Arenado recently said, “I think the future is much brighter in Colorado than it’s been in the past. That excites me and makes me very aware of what’s going on here.” Indeed, an impressive nucleus of young, affordable starting pitching (Kyle Freeland, Jon Gray, German Marquez, Tyler Anderson, and Antonio Senzatela) and the development of shortstop Trevor Story have been key elements of the Rockies’ recent success; that core is under club control through 2021 and ’22. What’s more, the team’s TV revenue situation is better than has been previously reported; the Rockies are making $40 million per year now, not $20 million, which was tied for last among the 29 US teams in Craig Edwards’ 2016 roundup. The team’s current deal runs through 2020, and negotiations for a new one are expected to get underway this summer.

With such a revenue stream, Monfort seems to feel that the Rockies can support a payroll that includes a major commitment to Arenado on a long-term deal. While Cot’s Contracts projects the team to set a franchise record with an Opening Day payroll just over $143 million — up from around $137 million in 2018 (14th in the majors) and $127.8 million in 2017 (15th) — the Rockies have only $40 million committed for 2021, and $23 million for ’22, though of course, the salary increases of their many arb-eligible players will increase those figures.

In marked contrast to the White Sox, whose history under Jerry Reinsdorf I examined on Monday, the Rockies haven’t shied away from sizable long-term commitments. Granted, Monfort and his brother Charlie were merely minority partners until December 2005, when they bought out Jerry McMorris, the team’s principal owner since 1993 (before that, oy, there’s a story). During the McMorris era, the Rockies signed free agents Larry Walker (six years, $75 million in April 1995), Mike Hampton (eight years, $121 million in December 2000), and Denny Neagle (five years, $51 million, also in December 2000) — of which only the first deal went well, the last two disastrously — and extended franchise icon Todd Helton (nine years, $141.5 million, covering 2003-11). The Monforts were the principal owners when the Rockies extended Troy Tulowitzki (10 years, $157.75 million deal in 2010), as well as Charlie Blackmon (six years, $108 million last April), and when they added free agents Ian Desmond (five years, $70 million in December 2016) and Wade Davis (three years, $52 million in December 2017). In terms of guaranteed money, all of those deals besides those of Neagle and Davis exceed the largest guaranteed contract ever signed by the White Sox, Jose Abreu’s six-year, $68 million pact from October 2013.

Whether on the watch of McMorris or the Monforts, not all of the Rockies’ big contracts have unfolded for the better. Some of that has to do with the particularities of playing at altitude — pitches don’t break as much, and athletes’ bodies don’t hold up as well — and some of it has to do with flawed evaluations of the players in question. At a time when so many teams are wringing their hands about spending money, it’s still noteworthy that the Rockies have stepped up to keep their top players. Extending Arenado, and assuming the risks that come with it, would be more in keeping with their style than (to return to my previous example) the White Sox signing Bryce Harper or Manny Machado.

Of course, Arenado has to agree to a deal for this all to come to fruition, and it’s a bit ominous to think of how the relatively grim landscapes of the past two winters might be helping to fulfill the vision that the owners colluded in the mid-1980s to make happen: star players staying with their teams instead of testing the market and creating bidding wars. Still, free agency isn’t an obligation that every star has to fulfill; the combination of comfort and a record-setting salary in a competitive situation isn’t something to be taken lightly.

On that note, if an Arenado extension is completed before Machado signs, it would likely set a new baseline for third basemen (by topping Alex Rodriguez‘s $27.5 million average annual value) and perhaps for all position players (by topping Miguel Cabrera’s $31 million AAV). That, as Rosenthal pointed out, will make it harder for any team in pursuit of Harper or Machado to argue that those younger, higher-profile players should be paid less money.

After the past two winters of slow (or even negative) growth, it’s difficult to put too much faith in long-term estimates, but using the FanGraphs Contract estimation tool with very conservative parameters — $8.0 million per WAR, and just 3% average annual inflation, as opposed to $9 million or more and 5% — suggests a valuation approach $300 million:

Nolan Arenado’s Contract Estimate — 8 yr / $293.9 M
Year Age WAR $/WAR Est. Contract
2019 28 5.2 $8.0 M $41.6 M
2020 29 5.2 $8.2 M $42.8 M
2021 30 5.2 $8.5 M $44.1 M
2022 31 4.7 $8.7 M $41.1 M
2023 32 4.2 $9.0 M $37.8 M
2024 33 3.7 $9.0 M $33.3 M
2025 34 3.2 $9.0 M $28.8 M
2026 35 2.7 $9.0 M $24.3 M
Totals 34.1 $293.9 M

Assumptions

Value: $8M/WAR with 3.0% inflation (for first 5 years)
Aging Curve: +0.25 WAR/yr (18-24), 0 WAR/yr (25-30),-0.5 WAR/yr (31-37),-0.75 WAR/yr (> 37)

Dialing the inflation back even further, to 1%, yields a $279.7 million valuation, and cutting the dollars per WAR figure to a retrograde $7.0 million with that minimal inflation in place still yields $244.7 million. In other words, even using extremely modest assumptions, an eight-year deal for Arenado (presumably incorporating this year’s salary) should bypass Cabrera’s eight-year, $248 million extension.

Another byproduct of an Arenado extension might be a change in the Yankees’ current approach. Circa late November, Rosenthal suggested that their lukewarm pursuits of Harper and Machado — due to a logjam of outfielders in the former case and the infamous “Johnny Hustle” comments in the latter — was because they were more interested in pursuing Arenado (who’s about 18 months older than Harper and 15 months older than Machado) once he reached free agency. In January, SNY.tv’s Andy Martino wrote that Yankees might be working on an even more immediate timeline, “[P]eople briefed on the Yankees thinking say that GM Brian Cashman — who did not respond to a request for comment — has internally discussed the possibility of trying to trade for Arenado either now or during the season. One source said that the teams have likely talked already, but neither Cashman nor Rockies GM Jeff Bridich have confirmed this.”

In theory, if Arenado does cement his desire to stay in Denver long-term, the Yankees could circle back to Machado, whose list of suitors for a long-term deal appear to consist of the White Sox, Padres, Phillies, and a conspicuous lack of other teams. Then again, if Cashman and company have shied away this long, one expects they’ll concoct some other rationale for bypassing Machado and Harper. And it is worth noting that the possibility of signing Harper and Machado was offered as a potential rationale for not signing free agents last winter. While his resume is certainly impressive, it will be interesting to see if Arenado can avoid a similar fate. There’s always another young buck coming, after all, and Mike Trout is only under club control through 2020.

On the other hand, if Arenado and the Rockies don’t get a deal done, it will be very interesting to see how the summer plays out. With the Giants and Diamondbacks both rebuilding, and the Padres possibly looking to spend their way to an earlier competitive window by signing one of the big two free agents, the NL West probably won’t be the three-team race of yesteryear. A Rockies team that’s out of the playoff hunt could conceivably trade Arenado at the July 31 deadline — or even in August, given his huge salary — if he suggests he plans to move on next winter anyway. A Rockies team that’s still in the race for a Wild Card spot or even the NL West flag (something the Rockies have yet to win) as Arenado eyes the horizon would face quite a quandary.

In all of this, we have yet to hear Arenado definitively say that he wants to stick around, but that’s not uncommon. There’s no reason for him to surrender leverage until he’s secured what he wants, and besides, his real talking on that score will be done with a pen and a contract. Until then, this is all just cloud talk, though amid so much cynicism, it’s quaintly refreshing to hear a star and a team at least thinking aloud about sticking together.