Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Baltimore Orioles trending on Twitter because of their 0.0 percent FanGraphs playoff odds, what that figure really signifies, and how teams tend to respond to pessimistic projections, then break down why the record-breaking 14-year extension signed by superstar shortstop Fernando Tatis Jr. is a windfall for him, great news for fans of the Padres, and a boon to baseball. After that (35:10), they celebrate Prospect Week at FanGraphs by bringing on lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to discuss his brand-new ranking of the top prospects in baseball, which organizations’ prospect strengths stand out, the potential of Wander Franco, Jasson Dominguez, and other intriguing talents, which prospects were most affected by the pandemic, whether there were any developmental upsides to playing at alternate sites, the upcoming draft classes, why Tatis was originally underrated, the now-complete career of Tim Tebow, and more.

Audio intro: Guns N’ Roses, "14 Years"
Audio interstitial: Hinds, "San Diego"
Audio outro: Matthew Sweet, "Coming Soon"

Link to @MLB playoff odds tweet
Link to Means on the Orioles’ playoff odds
Link to Ben Clemens on the Tatis extension
Link to Big League Advance EW interview episode
Link to Sportico on Tatis and BLA
Link to Ken Rosenthal on Tatis and BLA
Link to Eric’s Top 100-ish prospects
Link to Kevin on pandemic-hampered prospects
Link to Eric and Kevin’s 2022 picks to click
Link to Eric’s draft rankings
Link to story about Daniel Lynch
Link to NASA Perseverance press release
Link to Pinstriped Prospects Dominguez tweet
Link to Fernando Perez EW interview episode

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the beginning of the ninth annual Effectively Wild team-by-team season preview series, discuss a trio of players (Justin Turner, James Paxton, and Jake Arrieta) who re-signed with their most recent or former teams, and preview the 2021 Rays (16:01) with Adam Berry of MLB.com and the 2021 Brewers (57:25) with Will Sammon of The Athletic.

Audio intro: Camera Obscura, "Do it Again"
Audio interstitial 1: The Bats, "The Rays"
Audio interstitial 2: Bombadil, "Wisconsin Wedding"
Audio outro: The Rembrandts, "End of the Beginning"

Link to recap of 2020 team predictions
Link to Jared Diamond on the Rays’ executive tree
Link to Eric Longenhagen’s Rays prospects list
Link to Ben on the opener and Yarbrough
Link to Ian Malinowski on Yarbrough’s arb case
Link to Tony Wolfe on Yelich
Link to Will on Burnes
Link to Will on Williams
Link to Marc Carig on Williams
Link to Jake Mailhot on Williams
Link to Will on Lindblom
Link to Will on Wong and Hiura

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the de-naming and possible renaming of the minor leagues, the Andrew Benintendi trade and the state of the Royals, and what they would add to SABR’s list of the 50 most noteworthy moments in the evolution of baseball analytics over the past 50 years, then (30:00) bring back NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory Systems Engineer (and baseball fan) Shannon Towey to discuss adopting the Dodgers, the Mets’ offseason, the physics of baseball, the upcoming landing of the Perseverance rover on Mars, the purpose of the Mars 2020 mission, her role in communicating with the rover, why Mars has had a busy month, the importance of planetary protection, future Mars missions, and much more.

Audio intro: The Killers, "My List"
Audio interstitial: Styx, "Mission to Mars"
Audio outro: Rainbow Kitten Surprise, "Mission to Mars"

Link to new minor league structure
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Benintendi trade
Link to SABR’s analytics list
Link to story about Pitcher Abuse Points
Link to Victor Wang’s research
Link to Sam on Steve Boros
Link to the history of “three true outcomes”
Link to Ben on AVM Systems
Link to Ben on the Yankees discovering framing
Link to Shannon’s first EW appearance
Link to Shannon’s website
Link to Mars 2020 mission website
Link to Ben on planetary protection
Link to Mars Helicopter page
Link to R.J. Anderson on MLB brain drain

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about having baseball on the brain and the NL Central’s measly World Series odds, then answer listener emails about umpire underwear and repeated pants-splitting, an eccentric baseball billionaire who wants his son to break Cy Young’s career wins record, whether they would pitch a big-league game in exchange for Trevor Bauer’s single-start salary, Nelson Cruz and the Hall of Fame character clause, what percentage of teams have a Hall of Famer, what Pirates fans can look forward to, whether time off in 2020 may help pitchers in the long run, whether Red Sox fans should heckle Manny Machado, and whether and why we’re seeing a golden age of shortstops, plus a Stat Blast about the Angels’ rotation and the other least productive positions on teams over the past five seasons.

Audio intro: Pulp, "Underwear"
Audio outro: Elvis Presley, "Patch it Up"

Link to Ben Clemens on the playoff odds
Link to 1936 Retrosheet pants-splitting play log
Link to 1939 pants-splitting story
Link to 1964 pants-splitting photo
Link to 1966 pants-splitting story
Link to 1974 pants-splitting story
Link to 1976 pants-splitting story
Link to 1988 pants-splitting story
Link to 1990 pants-splitting story
Link to Sam on being embarrassed in a game
Link to Allan Travers SABR bio
Link to Pedroia-Machado play
Link to Grant Brisbee on Pedroia and Machado
Link to Pedroia on the Machado slide
Link to Travis Sawchik on the golden age of shortstops
Link to Travis on the new shortstop power profile
Link to Ben on the Infante signing
Link to Stat Blast least productive positions data
Link to Lindsey Adler on MLB’s new policies

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the incredible longevity of Dodgers Spanish-language voice Jaime Jarrín (who’s outlasted his own son in the broadcast booth), break down the new, universal-DH-less health and safety protocols for the 2021 season and MLB’s adjustments to the baseball’s construction, the Elvis Andrus–Khris Davis trade and the unprecedented positional profile of Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna signing and the biggest surprises on the FanGraphs Playoff Odds page, then (57:34) talk to Andrea Williams about her new book Baseball’s Leading Lady: Effa Manley and the Rise and Fall of the Negro Leagues, covering the career of the only woman in the Hall of Fame, how Andrea’s background informed her approach to the book, integration’s effect on the Negro Leagues, the lasting legacies of segregation and Black Baseball, MLB recognizing the Negro Leagues as major leagues, and other underappreciated Black baseball titans.

Audio intro: Cat Stevens, "Father and Son"
Audio interstitial: The Tragically Hip, "Ahead By a Century"
Audio outro: Kiwi Jr., "Undecided Voters"

Link to story about Jarrín
Link to video about Jarrín
Link to press release about 2021 protocols
Link to Ken Rosenthal on the 2021 protocols
Link to The Athletic report on the baseball
Link to AP report about the baseball
Link to SI report about the baseball
Link to Emma Baccellieri on baseball changes
Link to Eric Longenhagen on the Andrus-Davis trade
Link to Jake Mailhot on Kiner-Falefa
Link to Andrew Simon on Kiner-Falefa
Link to Jay Jaffe on the Ozuna signing
Link to FanGraphs Playoff Odds page
Link to Craig Goldstein on the Braves’ PECOTA projection
Link to buy autographed copies of Baseball’s Leading Lady
Link to publisher listing for Baseball’s Leading Lady
Link to Manley’s Hall of Fame page
Link to Clinton Yates on the Negro Leagues
Link to Shakeia Taylor on Manley
Link to SABR Analytics Awards voting

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the latest developments for their minor league free agent draft teams, then discuss the Dodgers signing reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Trevor Bauer to an unexpected and unusually structured record contract, touching on the good and bad of Bauer, the incredible Dodgers-Padres arms race, and much more. Then (39:04) they draft their favorite responses to a recent viral tweet about the best, worst, and weirdest beliefs about baseball.

Audio intro: Someone Still Loves You Boris Yeltsin, "Trevor Forever"
Audio outro: T. Rex, "Dandy in the Underworld"

Link to Ben Clemens on the Bauer signing
Link to Bauer’s announcement video
Link to Bradford Doolittle on Bauer
Link to Sarah Griffin’s tweet
Link to article about Dandy

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley recap the Rockies’ press conference about the Nolan Arenado trade and GM Jeff Bridich claiming the belt as the game’s most-maligned GM, then discuss Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway’s suspension and Andrelton Simmons’ comments about his mental state in 2020, analyze the Twins re-signing Nelson Cruz and signing Alex Colomé, the Rays reuniting with Chris Archer, the Reds adding Sean Doolittle, and the Brewers landing Kolten Wong, touch on A.J. Preller’s promotion and extension and examine the potential conflict between Theo Epstein’s MLB consultancy and his new private-equity job, and conclude with a Stat Blast about the incredible consistency of Leroy Stanton.

Audio intro: Earth Girls, "Only Human"
Audio outro: Matthew Sweet, "Split Personality"

Link to Emma Baccellieri on the Rockies
Link to Marc Carig on the Rockies
Link to Nick Groke on the Arenado trade
Link to story about Monfort’s 94-win prediction
Link to Ben Clemens on Arenado’s new deal
Link to The Athletic report about Callaway
Link to Ginny Searle on Callaway
Link to Jeff Passan on Drew Robinson
Link to Jeff Fletcher on Simmons
Link to Kevin Goldstein on the Cruz signing
Link to Clemens on Cruz last September
Link to EW episode about Cruz
Link to Tony Wolfe on the Archer signing
Link to Ben on the Archer trade
Link to story about Archer’s sinker usage
Link to report about Epstein’s new gig
Link to Dan Fox on platoon splits
Link to Stanton’s career splits page

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley break down the Nolan Arenado trade from the Rockies’ and Cardinals’ perspectives, reflect on the Rockies’ rudderless state, touch on a few more minor transactions (Alex Cobb to the Angels, Didi Gregorius to the Phillies, and Eddie Rosario to Cleveland), remember the career of the now-retired Dustin Pedroia, and touch on the latest exchanges between MLB and the MLBPA about when to start the season (with a postscript about late-breaking news).

Audio intro: Keith Richards, "Something for Nothing"
Audio outro: Pllush, "Stuck to You"

Link to Ben Clemens on the Arenado deal
Link to discussion about blockbusters
Link to story about the Rockies’ front office
Link to Bridich’s comments about beat writers
Link to story about Monfort
Link to Jake Mailhot on the Rosario signing
Link to report about MLB-MLBPA negotiations
Link to Twitter thread about MLB-MLBPA negotiations
Link to report about Callaway

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Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the quirks and cancellation of a long-lost (and recently rediscovered) baseball successor to arcade hit NBA Jam called Power-Up Baseball, then discuss the Cubs signing Joc Pederson and the Cardinals bringing back Adam Wainwright and (probably) Yadier Molina, share a Stat Blast about where Wainwright and Molina rank among the most prolific pitcher-catcher combos of all time in terms of total starts, break down Nick Madrigal’s chances of achieving the “very reachable” (according to Madrigal) milestone of 3,000 hits, and celebrate Ken Griffey Jr.’s hiring as a senior advisor to MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, then answer listener emails about whether contract incentives could encourage players to adopt data-driven approaches, how Mike Trout could tank his career WAR while continuing to play, and how to make baseball as bad as possible while preserving the core structure of the sport.

Audio intro: Echo & the Bunnymen, "Lost and Found"
Audio outro: Lindisfarne, "Together Forever"

Link to article about Power-Up Baseball
Link to video of Power-Up Baseball
Link to Google Doodle baseball game
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Wainwright signing
Link to Stat Blast data about batteries
Link to player turnover study
Link to Madrigal’s comments
Link to age-based baselines for 3000-hit club
Link to MLB.com story about Griffey
Link to list of Trout hypotheticals
Link to Meg on Trout hypotheticals
Link to Francoeur with big glove
Link to Francoeur with big glove again
Link to Craig Edwards’ farewell post
Link to FanGraphs job posting

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Ben Lindbergh, Meg Rowley, and FanGraphs author Ben Clemens break down the Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, and Tommy La Stella signings, the Steven Matz trade, and Masahiro Tanaka’s decision to return to NPB’s Rakuten Eagles (with digressions about Japan’s tradition of awarding the uniform number 18 to aces and the greatness of Hiroki Kuroda) before explaining what the internet-driven inflation of GameStop stock has to do with the Mets, why Billy Beane isn’t leaving the A’s after all, and why teams are so intent on treating the competitive balance tax threshold as a salary cap. Then (57:32) they’re joined by Dr. Barton Smith, a professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering at Utah State University, to discuss how the Hawk-Eye component of MLB’s Statcast system is enabling new breakthroughs in pitch design, the concepts of seam-shifted wake and spin mirroring, which pitchers and teams are on the cutting edge, why some earlier analysts were wrong about pitching, whether hitters can counter the latest advances, what we still don’t understand about pitching, the increasing complexity of player evaluation, and how this all relates to foreign substances and the baseball’s surface.

Audio intro: The Shazam, "Squeeze the Day"
Audio interstitial: Buzzcocks, "Wake Up Call"
Audio outro: Heatmiser, "Wake"

Link to Ben Clemens on the Semien signing
Link to Dan Szymborski on the Simmons signing
Link to Tony Wolfe on the La Stella signing
Link to Tony on the Matz trade
Link to Brendan Gawlowski on the Tanaka signing
Link to Jim Allen on the Tanaka signing
Link to Rob Arthur on MLB FA going to Japan
Link to Slate’s GameStop stock explainer
Link to report about Steve Cohen’s losses
Link to report about Beane’s bid
Link to report about Oakland’s offer to Semien
Link to Andy McCullough on the CBT
Link to Marc Normandin on the CBT
Link to Hawk-Eye introduction
Link to Ben’s primer on the seam-shifted revolution
Link to Alan Nathan on late break
Link to Nathan on active spin
Link to Barton’s seam-shifted wake explainer
Link to Barton’s video about seam-shifted wake
Link to BP article on seam-shifted wake
Link to Driveline study on seam-shifted wake
Link to Tom Tango on seam-shifted wake
Link to Eno Sarris on seam-shifted wake
Link to Eno on spin mirroring
Link to Michael Augustine on spin mirroring
Link to Mike Petriello on spin direction
Link to Tango on spin direction
Link to Tango on gyro spin
Link to report about defamation lawsuit

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