It was a Fourth of July spectacle in Boston in 1948: the final game of a three-game set between the Red Sox and Connie Mack’s Philadelphia Athletics, the latter just a half-game behind Cleveland in the American League race. The Red Sox had failed to muster much of any offense against the A’s in the previous two games, losing by scores of 4-2 and 8-2. This final contest, though, was proving more competitive. A’s starter Carl Scheib held the Red Sox to just a run through the first four innings; the Red Sox’s Ellis Kinder held the A’s scoreless. The Red Sox added another run in the fifth; the A’s answered by taking a one-run lead in the top of the sixth. The Red Sox got three more runs back in the bottom of the inning, giving them the lead once again, and knocking Scheib out of the game. The A’s tied it up again in the top of the seventh. For a brief, peaceful moment, the score was a calm, reasonable 5-5.

I mentioned that Scheib had been knocked out of the game in the sixth. The reliever responsible for the last out of the inning was a rookie by the name of Charles Harris, also known as Charlie, or Charley, or, apparently, Bubba. Charlie Harris was 22 years old, and since making his debut in April of that year, had been a very reliable reliever for Mack’s team. He even pitched a scoreless seven-inning hold. Entering the July 4 game in the bottom of the seventh, he had a 1.09 ERA.

Ted Williams led off the inning with a walk. A bunt single followed, then another walk. Yet another walk gave the Red Sox the lead. Four batters in, and it was clear that Harris didn’t have it — he had never before walked more than two batters in a pitching appearance. But Mack left him in. It was Harris’s inning, and Harris needed to finish it. Read the rest of this entry »

Last week, I wrote about how June is reach-out call season and how teams gather beforehand to establish an agreed upon outbound messaging to other teams about their plans. In that spirit, I tried to insert myself into each team’s discussions, and craft a suggested script for each club’s initial calls. We begin today with the National League.

National League East

New York Mets

We’ve had a ton of injuries and some big players haven’t really gotten going yet, but at the same time we are in first place, so we’re definitely going to be making a push. We feel good about the top of our rotation, but will be looking for some second tier starters for the last one or two slots. They’re the kind of guys who help get us to the playoffs, but probably don’t start in a series and so are lower acquisition cost types, unless Kevin Gausman or Max Scherzer become available. We’re also in the market for a center fielder, but there’s not much out there and we would want them to be a clear upgrade. We have financial room and we can be aggressive, but it’s going to take something really wild to access any of our top prospects like Francisco Álvarez, Ronny Mauricio and/or Brett Baty.

Atlanta Braves

We’ve been under .500 for most of the year, but we’re in second place and feel like we are a better team than this, so we will be looking to add. It’s tough because we’re owned by a corporation and not a person, so budget stuff is always going to be in play and we’ll need clarity from the top. We’re operating under the assumption that Marcell Ozuna’s tenure as a Brave has come to an end, so between that and Cristian Pache not hitting, the outfield is a point of focus for us, both in terms of finding a bopper for the middle of the lineup and someone to provide some depth. Travis d’Arnaud is arriving for the second half, so we’re fine at catcher for now. We feel good about our rotation, especially once Huascar Ynoa comes back from his silly injury, but we’ve had problems in the bullpen, especially with the bridge innings that get us to the end game; we should be players in the reliever market.

Philadelphia Phillies

It’s hard to say where we are at right now. We’re scuffling around .500 and feel like we’re better than this, but we’re not ready to get aggressive in terms of buying or selling. Let’s check back at the beginning of July? We’re happy with the everyday lineup for the most part, but our bench is pretty barren, so we’ll be looking to shore up there and get some ‘pen help should we decide to make a push.

Washington Nationals

We are not ready to open up for business yet, but we are close, so we would like your thoughts on Max Scherzer should we start listening on him in the coming weeks. Keep in mind that Max has 10-5 rights, so we will need to get approval from him for any trade. He’s aware of that, obviously, but we haven’t had specific talks with him yet in terms of potential destinations. And while he’s technically a rental, he also has all sorts of deferred money, so how we handle that will help define the return we are looking for. If we decide to sell, it will be a full court press. Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson make any bullpen better, and Jon Lester isn’t what he used to be, but he provides some stability and presence in the back of a rotation. In terms of position players, Starlin Castro and Josh Harrison should be decent infield depth pieces for someone, and Kyle Schwarber provides a lefty power source. We’re just putting out feelers for now, but unless something really positive happens over the next two weeks, expect things to pick up and get serious by the end of the month.

Miami Marlins

We don’t have the biggest names available, but we have a lot of players on the table, and might be your best option for a package deal that addresses multiple concerns. Keep in mind that we are already down the road on some of these players with teams, so if you want to get in, you might not want to wait until next month. Starling Marte is our best player as well as our best performer this year and will be the one we are looking to get the greatest return for. In terms of outfielders, Corey Dickerson hasn’t had a great year, but he has a track record of hitting and could be the lefty bat you are looking for. We’re getting a lot of calls on Jesús Aguilar; he’s a good power source and great guy to have in the clubhouse. Miguel Rojas can be a solid everyday shortstop or downright outstanding utility player for the right team. And while he’s obviously not a guy who is going to give you a lot of offense, Sandy León is a veteran catcher who knows how to fold up back there in the playoff setting. We’re holding on to our young starters, but in terms of ‘pen arms, Yimi García has been really good for us in a closer role and could set up for most playoff teams. On a smaller scale, Ross Detwiler can provide some lefty depth. It’s an expansive menu and we’re all ears.

National League Central

Milwaukee Brewers

We’re unlikely to move on anything big, as much as we are looking to make a series of incremental improvements. We’re still not comfortable with our first base situation and would like to find a mid-range bopper we can just plug in there who hits in the five or six hole every day. We’re very happy with our rotation, especially the potential playoff parts of it, so in terms of arms, we’re shopping for some bullpen improvement. Brent Suter has been up and down, and we’re hoping Hoby Milner will help, but an upgrade from the left side would help us feel better about it. That said, we’re not restricted to lefties and the way we use our starters, any additional ‘pen pieces would be of interest.

Chicago Cubs

The team is playing very well of late, so we’re not taking any calls on the impending free agents; it would take quite a collapse for that to change. We will feel better about our lineup once everyone is healthy, but we could use some more outfield depth. I know we told Joc Pederson that he would play every day here, but we can’t keep throwing him out there against lefties if we are making a playoff push, so a platoon piece to give us more firepower against southpaws would help. Our bullpen has exceeded all expectations, but we’re not comfortable at all with our rotation, especially in a playoff setting. If we get the green light from ownership, we will be laser focused on starting pitching.

St. Louis Cardinals

We’re a little stuck in terms of both our roster and payroll, so while we expect to make some moves, they will likely be on the margins unless we can find a clear upgrade to play a corner outfield. Like everyone, we’ll look at some bullpen arms and starter depth, but with our performance over the last week, we’re back in assessment mode, so feel free to check in a little bit later in the month while we figure out where we are going.

Cincinnati Reds

We’re only a handful of games out of first place, but there are also three teams ahead of us in the standings and we know that this division is highly unlikely to produce a Wild Card team. Right now we are standing pat, but we would talk about Tucker Barnhart right now in order to allow us to play Tyler Stephenson every day once Joey Votto comes back from the Injured List.

Pittsburgh Pirates

We’re ready to move on deals right away, we just don’t have much to deal. We’d listen on Adam Frazier, but with one year of arbitration remaining, we see him as much more than a rental and will want something real in return. We’ve already taken a lot of calls on Bryan Reynolds, and unless somebody wants to really blow us away, we’re not looking to move him. He’s still a Pirate for at least four more years and we’re hoping to turn this ship around faster than that. Yes, Gregory Polanco has been bad, but maybe a change of scenery would do him well, and if you want to get creative we can eat some of the money in order to improve our prospect return. We know it’s not a lot in terms of pitching, but Tyler Anderson doesn’t impact your payroll and might give you some consistency at the end of the rotation. In terms of bullpen arms, we’d listen on Richard Rodríguez and spin king Chris Stratton, but both still have two years of control left, so we’ll need to get back something we really like.

National League West

San Francisco Giants

Look, we are in first place and have the best record in baseball. We’re in no position to talk about moving our impending free agents. Maybe in a month if something bad happens, but we’re not even considering it right now and making no plans for it. We’re going to make a run here, but anticipate incremental improvements as opposed to a headline deal. With Evan Longoria’s injury we’d like to improve our infield situation, especially at second and third base. On a smaller scale, a veteran backup catcher to help get Buster Posey through the season would be of interest to us, and while we’re happy with the back of our bullpen, we’d like to improve our middle relief depth.

San Diego Padres

We’re the Padres, we’re splashy, and we’re going to look to make more waves in July. Interest is in any and all impact players available, and we have the prospects to get a deal done. We’d love to find a big bat we can plug into our outfield, allowing us to transition Tommy Pham into more of a flex role in the grass. It’s hard to find starting catchers in the middle of a season, but finding one to move Victor Caratini to a backup role would be a low-key big upgrade for us. We just don’t need any pitchers unless they’re absolute studs who win postseason games for us.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Yeah, I can’t believe we’re in third place either, but nothing has really gelled for us and we still think we have one of the, if not the, best teams in baseball. Once Corey Seager returns, our lineup is kind of locked in, but we might have interest in a bench bat or two. Like everyone else, we will be looking to lengthen our bullpen.

Colorado Rockies

Trevor Story will be healthy soon and as soon as he is, let the bidding begin. We would prefer to get one or two prospects we really like as opposed to a bigger package that includes more players but ones we’re not as crazy about. We need to get into the top of your prospect list to start a discussion. The same goes for Jon Gray. His imaging came back clean, and he’ll be back on the mound soon. The ways things are going, he will likely be one of the better starters on the block, and we’re going to treat him that way in regards to discussions. We’d be willing to eat some of Charlie Blackmon’s money in order to get a real prospect back. On a smaller scale, C.J. Cron provides some pop and on-base skills from the right side and doesn’t impact your payroll much. Mychal Givens is a consistently solid reliever who can be had for a rental price. We’re ready to talk about any of these guys starting yesterday, but frankly would discuss anyone on our roster if we thought a deal would make us better in the future.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Phones are open, so call now. We’ve already had a few inquiries on David Peralta as a veteran hitter at a decent price, while Eduardo Escobar and Asdrúbal Cabrera are both infielders who could play a starting or bench role on the right club. It’s early, but Josh Reddick has been hitting well and could be had for a low acquisition price. We don’t have much in the way of pitching, but if you get a little desperate for a starter, we’d give away Madison Bumgarner just to get out from under the contract.

Emerson Hancock brought a power arsenal with him to the Seattle Mariners organization. Drafted sixth-overall last year out of the University of Georgia, the 22-year-old right-hander features a mid-90s fastball, a biting slider, a plus changeup, and a capable curveball. But he’s not your prototypical flamethrower. While not backing away from the power-pitcher label, Hancock fashions himself more as a craftsman, a starter who can go deep into games by mixing and matching, and by commanding the strike zone. His track record backs that up. Over his final two collegiate seasons — this in the talent-laded SEC — he logged 131 strikeouts, and walked just 21, in 114-and-a-third innings.

No. 4 on our Mariners Top Prospects list, Hancock currently has a 2.19 ERA in four starts comprising 12.1 innings with the High-A Everett AquaSox. He talked pitching with FanGraphs over the weekend.

———

David Laurila: To start, give me a self scouting report. How do you identify as a pitcher?

Emerson Hancock: “One thing I’ve always tried to do, especially since college, is be able to ‘pitch’ — mix speeds, throw pitches in different locations, throw anything in any count to get hitters off balance. That’s something I take pride in. Another thing is trying to do the little things right, like holding runners.”

Laurila: You have plus stuff. How do you go about balancing power and command?

Hancock: “Something that’s helped me is that I haven’t always had the power. In high school, I struggled to have that big-time velocity, so I kind of had to learn at a younger age how to ‘pitch.’ At Georgia, [velocity] started happening — it came along — so now I had this other way. I had to learn how to use it. Even now, in the minor leagues, I’m trying to find different ways to use it. It’s something that’s always evolving for me.” Read the rest of this entry »

It’s a quiet evening along the water—until a glowing set of eyes peers at you over the river bank. You convince yourself it’s just a pair of fireflies. But then there’s more of them. And more.

And more.

Then there’s the quiet, seamless grind of their gears as they pull themselves onto dry land and bound toward you with the same sleekness they have in the water: The effortless instinct of nature, programmed into a machine.

It’s far too late to run. And the only final thoughts you can muster are: Otter-bots? But… why…?

Why, indeed. Fortunately, when the Otterbots descended upon Danville, Virginia this past winter, they did so as a new summer collegiate wood-bat franchise in the Appalachian League, not a horde of semiaquatic cuddle-bugs converted into killing machines.

So if it’s not “terrorizing the waterfront,” then what are Otterbots doing in Danville? This summer, the burgeoning Virginia STEM hub is going to find out. And fortunately, no one has to die.

***

Like a theoretical horde of river-dwelling killbots, the future is in a constant state of arrival. It can be jarring, damaging, and confusing at times. But with the right education, even an Otterbot can make a little more sense.

We are now living in a future that top minds foresaw decades ago. In 1994, in a coastal Virginia town four hours east of Danville called Poquoson, William L. Sellers III stated that the next generation needed nothing more than it would need science, technology, engineering, and math. Sellers had a masters degree and worked as a research engineer in fluid dynamics with NASA, as well as being a member of the local school board. Science had served him well, but as he explained, the whole point was for science to serve us all. Read the rest of this entry »

Jharel Cotton is trying to revive his career in the Texas Rangers organization. Three years removed from Tommy John surgery — and four years after making 24 starts for the Oakland A’s — the 29-year-old native of the Virgin Islands is taking the mound for the Triple-A Round Rock Express. Progress has been slower than ideal. In eight appearances comprising 17-and-two-thirds innings, Cotton has a 4.58 ERA and, more importantly, less feel for his deliveries that he did pre-injury.

He believes it’s only a matter of time.

“I didn’t play in 2018, I barely played in 2019, and 2020 was a scratch because of the pandemic,” Cotton explained earlier this week. “Now 1 have a full year, and within a full year I’ll be back to myself. I just have to keep putting in the work and trusting the process — going through the process of getting my arm to feel normal again. A lot of guys get back quickly and other guys get back not as quick. Everything will work out in its own time.”

Cotton’s velocity is slowly coming back — his fastball has been ranging between 92-96 mph — although his command has lagged a little behind. Ditto the crispness of his cutter, curveball, and changeup. But again, he’s not overly concerned. As he put it, “I lost a lot of those things, but I feel I’m putting the pieces back together.”

Cotton’s comeback isn’t the only reason I wanted to talk to him for today’s column. I also wanted to revisit a story I’d read about him back when he was still pitching for the A’s.

Originally in the Los Angeles Dodgers system, Cotton went to Oakland in August 2016 as part of a five-player deal involving Rich Hill. A few years earlier, he was a minor-leaguer making ends meet during the offseason. That’s when he learned to love shoveling snow. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been meaningfully altered begin by telling you so. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside of a given org than those within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there, and the context of that data, in my opinion, reduces how meaningful it is. Lastly, in an effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both on my lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

At the beginning of May, I wrote two articles about the slightly-deadened baseball’s effect on league-wide home run rates. The conclusion was pretty much exactly what you’d expect: A bouncier ball with more drag did reduce home runs, particularly among softer-hit balls at lower launch angles. In 2019, these events were the wall scrapers that barely went out of the yard. In 2021, these events are now doubles and outs, with the increase in fly outs likely contributing (at least somewhat) to baseball’s diminished run environment overall.

There were a handful of outstanding questions that I still had, one of which was the impact of the new baseball on a ballpark-by-ballpark basis. Though league-wide trends are certainly an interesting and informative way to see the effects of a new baseball on run scoring, it is also important to examine in which parks hitters are having a more difficult time getting the ball into the seats. That allows us to understand better how park effects may have been altered to different degrees as a result of MLB’s switch to the new baseball.

But it’s not just the baseball that is contributing here. MLB reportedly added humidors to five stadiums for the 2021 season, bringing the total league-wide to 10. The Rockies, Diamondbacks, Mariners, Mets, and Red Sox already had humidors in their stadiums pre-2021, but which five teams are new to that list has yet to be disclosed. We can only guess which parks now have them, but it is important to keep in mind that the ball is not the only difference.

Also important to remember when looking at ballpark-level data: The players on the home team make a huge difference in determining home run rates. It’s entirely possible that, between 2019 and ’21, a team added home run hitters to its lineup or acquired home run-adverse pitchers for its staff, or the opposite could also be true. To mitigate these effects, I only analyzed a specific slice of fly balls: those hit at an exit velocity at or above 95.0 mph, at an exit velocity below 110.0 mph, and at a launch angle below 30 degrees — the very fly balls most impacted by the new baseball in my prior analysis. I also only included fly balls hit in games on or before May 31 to control for weather effects. (That is why I am comparing 2019 to ’21.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Mike Shildt had a decision to make. It was only the first inning, but the Brewers were all over Daniel Ponce de Leon. They’d already scored three times, and had runners on second and third for number eight hitter Luis Urías. A hit here could break the game open, so Shildt took a risk and intentionally walked Urías. With a pitcher batting next, maybe he could salvage the inning.

There was just one problem: Daniel Ponce de Leon was pitching. His 11.6% walk rate this year has actually lowered his career mark. Not only that, but he’d already walked a batter unintentionally this inning, though it’s unclear whether that’s predictive. Either way, though, whoops:

Maybe that was a strike, and maybe it wasn’t. In any case, it turned into a run, and the game eventually turned into a Brewers rout. The Cardinals scored only three runs; as it turns out, the first inning was all Milwaukee needed. Urías didn’t have a hit on the day, not that that’s a particularly telling statistic.

Normally, I’d break down the pros and cons of Shildt’s decision in minute detail. Avoiding Urías and his career .318 OBP to face a pitcher seems good. Turning a walk into a run with Ponce de Leon on the mound seems bad. It’s certainly not a slam dunk in either direction. Read the rest of this entry »

Jacob deGrom‘s already microscopic ERA needs even a stronger microscope to spy it after his outing Monday, a six-inning shutout against the Arizona Diamondbacks that lowered his ERA to 0.71. We’re no longer in April, and we’re not even in May, so this new level of dominance can’t be easily ignored as the product of a small sample. Once performance of this magnitude reaches June intact — and 0.71 is deGrom’s second-highest seasonal ERA after the end of an outing — you have to seriously give at least a thought to the prospect of a pitcher making a run at Bob Gibson’s live-ball ERA record.

We had a chance at this happening last year, thanks to the asteriskesque 2020 season and its 60-game slate, shortened as a consequence of COVID-19. I talked about the possibility going into last season, with ZiPS projecting a one-in-four shot of someone catching Gibson’s 1.12. Nobody did it in the end, but Shane Bieber’s 1.63 was the one of the best ERAs for a qualifying pitcher since Gibson’s in 1968. Bieber and Trevor Bauer, the two pitchers who came closest, fell well short of Gibson but given the relatively high levels of league offense, their efforts were enough to get them the third and fourth spots on the all-time single-season ERA+ ranks.

Catching Gibson in a 60-game season would have been an accomplishment, but not really a full one. Records are naturally set in conditions that benefit players, and Gibson was no exception: 1968 was dubbed the Year of the Pitcher thanks to a league ERA of 2.98, nearly a half-run lower than any season since the spitball was banned. Gibson’s 258 ERA+, which takes into account league offense, still sits atop the leaderboard, but at least it doesn’t utterly wreck the recent field, which consists of Pedro Martinez (243, 1999), Roger Clemens (227, 1997), and Zack Greinke (227, 2015) among others.

But since 2021 is a full 162-game season, catching a 1.12 ERA would feel a lot less like sneaking in through a loophole. A significant drop-off in league offense (to a 4.02 ERA) could be credited for an assist, but it’s not a number that is unfair relative to baseball history. So, can he do it?

deGrom has missed a few starts so far in 2021, with no apparent ill results to his performance, and the Mets have been cautious with his pitch totals; he’s averaged fewer than 70 pitches in his last three starts. That’s beneficial to his chances, as no star pitcher has a long-term ability to keep their ERA that low, even Gibson; just clearing the one-inning-per-team-game requirement optimizes things. deGrom will likely end up with around 30 games started this season, so a good place to begin in gauging his odds is to see if anyone’s come close to 1.12 in a span of 30 games starts, crossing over seasons, since 1920. I’m only listing unique 30-game runs since there is naturally quite a bit of overlap in runs:

Gibson’s best 30-game span was even better than his 1.12 ERA, dipping under one. J.R. Richard’s presence on this list is especially cruel, as his 30-game span ended with the final game of his major league career. Before Richard’s next start, he suffered a stroke caused by a blood clot, and while he attempted a comeback a few years later in the minors, he was no longer the same pitcher.

Nobody catches 1.12 on this list, but many come close enough that the result is at least plausible. Jake Arrieta was only a run from accomplishing the feat. deGrom himself appears on this list, his 30-game span running from April 21, 2018, through April 3, 2019. His 1.40 ERA over 30 starts comes out to an ERA+ of 266 in a higher run environment (by about a tenth of a run) than 2021 so far. A tenth of a run isn’t a lot, but to break a record like this, every advantage helps. Yes, Mets fans, I see that 10-9 record for deGrom over that stretch.

To get an idea of deGrom’s probability of finishing with an ERA of 1.12 or better, I worked with a technique I’ve used in the past, which “simulates” a season using Monte Carlo algorithms and a smoothed model of a pitcher’s starts based on their projections and historical usage. At 189.2 innings (what he has in the bag, plus the 22 starts of 6.3 innings per start in his depth chart projections), he needs to allow 23 or fewer runs or a 1.23 ERA for the rest of the season. At 162 total innings, he’d have to maintain a 1.30 ERA the rest of the way.

deGrom’s no slam-dunk to catch Gibson, but he’s got a fighting chance, with my model estimating a 3.1% chance to beat a 1.12 ERA, or more precisely, Gibson’s 1.122538 (no cheating with rounding here!). That’s about 31-to-1, a little better than getting the exact number in roulette and roughly the probability of a 20-homer hitter getting a round-tripper in any given at-bat. In other words, it’s more likely than not that he falls short of the feat, but it’s definitely possible and firmly in the realm of plausibility.

Jacob deGrom is having the best run of his career and quickly developing a Hall of Fame case based on Koufax-levels of peak performance. Catching Bob Gibson would be a fantastic sentence on a plaque in Cooperstown. Hopefully, the Mets’ offense has the decency to give him more than 10 wins if it should come to pass!

Like many of you, I spent a good portion of Memorial Day watching baseball. I started with the Rays and Yankees, and was watching the YES Network feed when rookie shortstop Taylor Walls stepped to the plate. Immediately, the broadcast went to a graphic of who the Rays elected not to call up after they traded Willy Adames to the Brewers: Wander Franco, universally seen as the best prospect in the game, and the red-hot Vidal Bruján. It was a nice little troll, but while so much attention is deservedly paid to the Franco and Jarred Kelenic types before and after they debut, not every rookie has the same kind of prospect pedigree. With that in mind, here are nine prospects who aren’t getting the same kind of hype but are performing at a level that might earn them a big-league look this year. Read the rest of this entry »