An eventful long weekend of baseball led to some changes at the top of the power rankings, with the teams toward the middle of the pack continuing to jostle for position.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Note: All stats are through Sunday’s games.

The Dodgers have come roaring back into the top spot of these rankings with 13 wins in their last 16 games. Mookie Betts has blasted nine home runs in his last 17 games, and Trea Turner is in the midst of a 22-game hitting streak. If there’s something to be concerned about, it’s their team defense. A misplayed grounder cost them a game against the Phillies a couple of weeks ago, and it happened again last night against the Pirates.

Even though the Astros just lost a three-game series to the Mariners in which they were outscored 13–3, they’re still high up in these rankings and in the standings. The Angels’ recent struggles give them a bit of breathing room in the AL West, and Houston’s schedule lightens up over the next couple of weeks, with trips to Oakland and Kansas City before home series against Seattle and Miami.

The Yankees are really beat up. They’ve lost Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, Aroldis Chapman, Chad Green, and Jonathan Loáisiga to the Injured List all within the last two weeks. They even had to call on Matt Carpenter to help fill the gaps in their lineup. A trio of high-leverage relievers going down at the same time would normally give teams nightmares. Luckily, New York already has two excellent replacements ready to step into late-inning roles: the king of sinkers, Clay Holmes, and fireman Michael King.

After losing an epic, back-and-forth contest against the Giants on Tuesday, the Mets went out and swept the Phillies in three games over the weekend, then dropped 13 runs on the Nationals on Monday night. They’ve barely missed a beat after Max Scherzer hit the IL and are currently running away with the NL East. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve hit the quarter-mark for the season and some of the early-season disappointments are finally turning things around. Not much has changed at the top of the rankings, however.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

There’s no love lost between the Yankees and White Sox these days. After tensions rose during a four-game set two weekends ago, they tipped past the breaking point after Josh Donaldson’s racially charged comments to Tim Anderson on Saturday. That storyline understandably dominated the headlines, overshadowing a week in which the Yankees went 5-3 to maintain the best record in baseball. Aaron Judge is currently locked in and blasting everything in sight. He launched his league-leading 15th home run during the day game on Sunday; it was the third long ball he hit last week. Read the rest of this entry »

It was an eventful week in baseball, as we saw some history made and a lot of fun on the field. There were some big moves in the power rankings too.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

The Yankees remain at the top of the rankings after winning six of their seven games last week, including a two-game sweep of the Blue Jays and a series win against the White Sox. Even as scoring remains depressed throughout the game, the Yankees have continued to mash despite the deadened ball. They hung 32 runs on Chicago during their weekend series and will host the Orioles for four games to start this week — I imagine plenty more runs should be scored. Oh, and Nestor Cortes has suddenly ascended to a place among the game’s elite pitchers — he took a no-hitter into the eighth inning on Monday.

The Astros stretched their win streak out to 11 games before falling to the Nationals 13-6 on Saturday. They got right back on track Sunday, shutting out Washington 8-0. That’s the fourth shutout they’ve posted in their last seven games, and the sixth stretching back to the beginning of their current red hot streak. Justin Verlander is pitching like he never had Tommy John surgery, Jake Odorizzi hasn’t allowed a run in three straight starts, and Luis Garcia has been exceptional over his last two. Read the rest of this entry »

Due to the delayed start to the season, we’ve only now finished one month of play in the regular season. And while there are still plenty of games left, we’re already seeing the best teams pull away from their competition as a few disappointing teams continue to dig themselves into a hole.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking which is then presented in tiers below.

The Yankees’ win streak was snapped at 11 games on Wednesday, and their weekend series against the Rangers was interrupted by the bad weather that disrupted games all along the East Coast, with a doubleheader on Sunday and the third game rescheduled for Monday afternoon. Those two rainouts mean the Yankees will play 23 games in 22 days; as easy as their early schedule has been, this stretch will really test their depth and endurance.

The rain disrupted the Mets, too. They already had a weird week with a scheduled doubleheader against the Braves on Tuesday, a makeup for the games missed due to the lockout. Then, on Thursday, New York had its signature win for the season so far, rallying against the Phillies and scoring seven runs in the ninth inning to erase a 7–1 deficit. Games on Friday and Saturday were canceled, giving the team two days to bask in the glory of the comeback victory before splitting a doubleheader on Sunday.

The Dodgers swept the banged-up Giants in two games, then finished the week by taking three straight against the Cubs in Chicago, outscoring those two teams 32–5. Mookie Betts has finally awoken from a slow start to lead the offense, collecting three home runs during his current nine-game hitting streak. Even more encouraging is Cody Bellinger’s bounce-back campaign after an injury-riddled 2021 season. Read the rest of this entry »

Another week of the 2022 season is in the books and there’s been some significant movement in the power rankings. We’re still at the point where a hot or cold week can really change the outlook for a team, but we’re also starting to see some clubs separate themselves from the pack — for good or for ill.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking that is then presented in tiers below.

It’s a good time to be a baseball fan in New York. Both the Yankees and Mets have been playing fantastic baseball to start the season and both teams lead their respective divisions after a month of play. The Yanks rattled off a nine-game win streak with sweeps of the Guardians, Orioles, and the Royals. It took a little while for their bats to wake up earlier in the season, but they scored 7.4 runs per game during this stretch, including four games with double digit run totals. Unsurprisingly, it’s been their sluggers who have led the way. Anthony Rizzo’s nine home runs lead all of baseball, with a three dinger day on Tuesday and another on Friday padding his total. Not to be outdone, Aaron Judge blasted five homers last week, including two on Sunday. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re a little over two weeks into the 2022 season, which means it’s time to start assessing the teams that have gotten off to a hot start and those that have struggled. It’s way too early to draw any meaningful conclusions yet, but there are some teams who have shown real improvements so far, and others that have fallen flat despite lofty expectations.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated. First, we take three most important components of a team — offense (wRC+) and starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by innings) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking which is then presented in tiers below.

No one can really compete with the Dodgers. They possess the best record and the best run differential in baseball, and their Pythagorean win percentage says they “should have” won an extra game too. Their offense has gotten off to a bit of a slow start with Mookie Betts and Justin Turner both mired in early slumps. Luckily, Cody Bellinger’s bat is finally showing signs of life after taking the last two seasons off; he blasted two home runs on Sunday afternoon in a 10–2 drubbing of the Padres. Los Angeles’ pitching staff, meanwhile, has allowed the fewest runs in baseball thus far, with a revitalized Clayton Kershaw leading the way. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome back, baseball! After a prolonged offseason rife with drama and surprises, Opening Day is finally upon us. Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. These rankings, though, are entirely data driven.

First, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-) — and weight and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. For these Opening Day power rankings, I’ve used each team’s projected stats based on their Depth Charts projections. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has OAA/RAA from Statcast available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. For just this run of rankings, I’ve used the projected fielding component of WAR that appears on our Depth Charts projections. Read the rest of this entry »

After a wild Sunday afternoon that held plenty of drama for the final day of the regular season, the postseason field is set. Team Entropy ultimately found no joy, with the remaining playoff spots finally decided without the need for tiebreaker games. With the Wild Card round set to begin on Tuesday, here’s a look at the 10 teams in the playoffs and how they stack up against each other.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. Since regular season records don’t matter in the playoffs, I’ve ranked the teams simply by their overall team quality, removing the factors for win percentage and expected win percentage.

The Dodgers and Giants spent the entire season battling each other for the NL West crown. Los Angeles won 50 games after the All-Star break to post the best record in the second half and only gained a single game on San Francisco. The closest the Dodgers were to overtaking the Giants was entering their series in San Francisco on September 3. Even though the division wasn’t actually decided until the final weekend, that series gave the Giants the edge they needed to secure their first division title since 2012. It’s a shame they’re lined up to face each other in a Division Series instead of the NLCS — should the Dodgers advance out of the Wild Card game, that is. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s shaping up to be a dramatic finish to the season, with surprise contenders and potential tie breaking scenarios still very much alive. With just two weeks left in the season, three teams in the National League have already punched their postseason tickets, and though nothing is official yet, the three division races in the American League have largely been decided as well. That leaves the NL East and West (the Central is all but sewn up) and the two Wild Card races still to be determined.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. I add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting based on a team’s expected win-loss record — to produce a power ranking.

These six teams have either already clinched a playoff berth or should clinch sometime this week. They’re also the favorites to make deep postseason runs; the Dodgers lead the pack with 20.8% odds to win the World Series. It’s a little weird to see Max Scherzer hit a major career milestone in a Dodger uniform, but he finally reached 3,000 career strikeouts last week. Since joining Los Angeles on July 30, he’s posted an absurd 0.78 ERA across nine starts with a 79-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. His performance, and Walker Buehler’s season-long excellence, give the Dodgers an embarrassment of riches when it comes to who should start the NL Wild Card game should the Dodgers fail to catch up to the Giants in the West. Read the rest of this entry »

The Wild Card races in both leagues continue to be the source of all the drama down the stretch. There are a handful of teams vying for those last few playoff spots and the competition should go come to the wire. And as we witnessed last weekend, the Giants and Dodgers battling over the top of the NL West should provide a ton of excitement, too.

A quick refresher: my approach takes the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (50%/50% FIP- and RA9-) — and combines them to create an overall team quality metric. I add in a factor for “luck” — adjusting based on a team’s expected win-loss record — to produce a power ranking.

(All stats through 9/5)

Entering their final head-to-head matchup of the season, the Dodgers and Giants were tied atop the NL West standings and had played to an extraordinary balance in their previous 16 games: they had each won eight games and scored exactly 68 runs against each other. A dramatic 11-inning Giants win on Friday night was a fantastic start to this battle of titans. Alas, the remaining two games in the series were far less climactic, with each team winning a game comfortably. That final series win gives San Francisco home field advantage in case of a potential tiebreaker to decide the NL West at the end of the season. Read the rest of this entry »