Below we’ve compiled scouting snippets for 100 interesting prospects to monitor in 2024. Readers should think of this piece as dessert for the Top 100 Prospects list. Similar to the structure of the Other Prospects of Note section of the team lists, we have grouped players into buckets by prospect type. We tried to touch on players who we thought readers might be curious about for one reason or another, often guys who could have a meaningful 2024 impact, or whose development this season could be key for their careers. We tried to focus on players from orgs whose lists haven’t run yet this cycle. For those whose lists have been published, there is a link to their full scouting report next to their name in lieu of us taking up more space in this post. In some cases, we end up going into the reasons why a player was excluded from the Top 100, which is an attempt to anticipate your questions, not us trying to knock the player. After all, everyone here is considered a prospect. Read the rest of this entry »
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe! Thank you for checking out all of our Prospect Week work for the site, including this chat.
12:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Let’s get right into it.
12:03
Andrew: You’re a bit lower on Colt Emerson than a lot of the industry it seems. What does he need to show to get up into that ~50 range? And thoughts on Jeter Martinez?
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: I like Emerson a lot, ideally he performs a little better versus belt-high fastballs going forward. Jeter is an 18-year-old Mexican DSL arm sitting 92-93 touching better than that, slider will flash. Long-term dev project, last I saw arm action was super long
12:06
Jesse: Do the Mets have a top farm system after eating all that money for prospects during the trade deadline last year?
12:06
Eric A Longenhagen: More like tier 2 behind Cubs, BoSox
Kyle Teel is well positioned as Boston’s catcher of the future. Drafted 14th overall by the Red Sox out of the University of Virginia last summer, the backstop, who turned 22 last week, enters his first full professional season as the fifth-ranked prospect in Boston’s farm system and no. 80 on our Top 100. According to our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen, Teel “presents a well-rounded overall profile” that includes “a fabulous offensive résumé.”
His 2023 numbers were certainly exemplary. Teel slashed .407/.475/.655 with 13 home runs in his junior year at UVA, helping earn him first-team All-American accolades and rocketing him up draft boards. Upon reaching pro ball, his left-handed stroke produced a .363/.483/.495 slash line and a 173 wRC+ in 114 plate appearances across three minor league levels, his last stop being Double-A Portland.
Defense is, of course, a major responsibility for catchers. Last month, when Teel was at Fenway Park for Boston’s rookie development program, I spoke with him about his preparation and setup behind the plate, his throwing, and his offensive profile.
———
David Laurila: Catching is a science as well as an art. With that in mind, what role does data play in what you do defensively?
Kyle Teel: “I really like data when it comes to how pitchers’ stuff moves, and heat maps on what to throw to certain guys at certain times. That’s obviously beneficial, but there is also nothing like the feel of the game. You need to be using your eyes and seeing what you can take in, in the moment. But the data is definitely important. Before every game, I look at what pitchers like to throw, their tendencies in certain counts, and things like that. That’s both as a catcher and when I’m hitting.”
Laurila: Do you think like a catcher when you’re in the batter’s box?
Teel: “I kind of do. There are benefits to doing that, just knowing how pitchers work and what guys tend to throw in certain counts. Overall, I would say that having a good feel at the plate and calling pitches is very similar.”
Hey there, and welcome to the last edition of my data-driven look at some mid-tier hitting prospects I like more than the industry consensus. It feels weird, almost funereal, to start this article by mentioning that the series is ending, but that’s just how it is. This will be the fourth installment of my variably named Prospect Week contribution. In it, I use data and a big pinch of intuition to point out some hitters who I think have a good chance of sticking in the majors, even if they’re not your average Top 100 type.
In the past, I’ve done acceptably well at this; I don’t think it’d be fair to say that I’m great at it, but I’ve come up with my fair share of interesting players using this process. In looking through my past lists, I feel good about the process that led me to some guys you’ve heard of (Miguel Vargas and Ezequiel Tovar are probably my biggest hits so far, but I’ve also gotten some role players, and both Gabriel Moreno and Alejandro Kirk performed incredibly well by my model, though I didn’t end up including them in a list thanks to their pedigree) and plenty you haven’t.
What’s so hard about this project? The obvious thing is that my methods are archaic. I’m using some sorting techniques that are still reasonably current. K-nearest neighbors and multiple binary logistic regressions are still my two favorite techniques, and I think they both still do what I want them to. These approaches aren’t state of the art in statistical analysis, but they’re not particularly far from it, especially when you take into account that I’m a baseball writer instead of a data scientist. Read the rest of this entry »
It’s common for our readers to ask which of the players who aren’t on this year’s Top 100 might grace next year’s edition. Who has a chance to really break out? This is the piece for those readers, our “Picks to Click,” the gut-feel guys we think can make the 2025 Top 100.
This is the seventh year we’ve conducted this exercise at FanGraphs, and there are some rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been graded as a 50 FV or better prospect in any of our write-ups or rankings. Second, we can’t pick players who we’ve picked in prior years, but the other writers can. For instance, Eric picked Cristhian Vaquero last year, but he didn’t make the Top 100. Eric can’t select him again, but Tess could if she wanted (she didn’t). Read the rest of this entry »
Eric Kubota is the longest tenured scouting director in MLB, having been promoted to his current position by the Oakland Athletics in 2002. The University of California, Berkeley alum has been with the organization even longer than that; Kubota began working with the A’s in 1984 while still a student. He went on to join the baseball operations department in 1989, serving as assistant scouting director, Pacific Rim coordinator, and then supervisor of international scouting prior to taking the lead role in draft decisions.
His first draft is his most famous — perhaps you’ve heard of Moneyball — but it is by no means Kubota’s only memorable draft, nor his most impactful. Moreover, he has seen a lot change over his time in the industry. That comes with the territory when your scouting experience runs over three decades deep.
———
David Laurila: Looking back, something that stands out from the interview we did in 2009 was you saying, “The more you know about scouting, the more you know about the draft, and the more you know about prospects, the more you find out that there is more to learn.” All these years later, is there still more to learn?
Eric Kubota: “There is, and I feel even stronger about that now. The more I’ve gone through this, the more I realize how hard it is to try to predict the future on these kids, and the more I realize the need for as much information we can get to make informed decisions.” Read the rest of this entry »
Today is the start of the 2024 NCAA Division I baseball season, and to celebrate, I’ve updated my rankings for this draft class. Thirty fresh scouting reports, along with tool grades and assessments of the players’ physical attributes, are available on The Board. As they do every year, these rankings will grow and change between now and the draft. Let’s review the draft order before I talk a little bit about the class: Read the rest of this entry »
If you’re cursing the obstinance of winter, wishing for baseball to return in earnest, you’re in luck. The Division I college baseball season starts today. The real sickos among you already knew this, and have no doubt been studying Jac Caglianone’s Trackman data exhaustively since Thanksgiving. But if you’re new to the college game, you might not know where to start.
A proper exhaustive college baseball preview takes half a dozen writers weeks to compile. As one guy with less than 4,000 words to work with, I’ve chosen to highlight seven teams I believe will be interesting and/or important to the coming season. I expect all seven to make the NCAA tournament, and my national championship pick is among them, but this is not a College World Series preview or an ordered ranking.
Instead, I tried to add in a little variety, in terms of quality, region, and conference. Most of these teams are interesting because I don’t know exactly how good they’ll be. But I’ll be going out of my way to track them throughout the spring, because I believe they’ll each have an outsize impact on the college baseball landscape. Here they are, in no particular order. Read the rest of this entry »
For the ninth time (in 10 years — it’s a long story), we’ve reached the point in the offseason where I run down the ZiPS Top 100 prospects. For those wandering in who may hear “ZiPS” and think of the University of Akron or possibly the popular Cincinnati burger spot, ZiPS is a computer projection system that crunches a lot of data about players and attempts to peer through the fog that obscures the future. You can read more about the system here or in MLB.com’s executive summary.
ZiPS prospect projections aren’t an attempt to supplant scouting. Rather, they try to be a supplement to scout-generated lists. There’s a lot of uncertainty in lower-level minor league stats that isn’t present at the upper levels. As such, non-statistical information about players takes on added value. ZiPS doesn’t seek to be the one-ring-to-bind-them-all-unified-field-theory-giant-Katamari-Damacy-ball of prognostication; it aims to give the very best data-generated predictions possible, for people to use, ignore, mock, or worship according to their personal tastes and worldview. Read the rest of this entry »
Rhett Lowder has yet to pitch in a professional game, but already he ranks not only as the top pitching prospect in the Reds system, but also as the no. 44 player on our Top 100 list. Remarkably, that’s not all that surprising. Selected seventh overall by the Reds out of Wake Forest University, the 21-year-old right-hander will make his pro debut on the heels of a spectacular junior campaign that saw him go 15-0 with a 1.87 ERA and a school record 142 strikeouts. The Atlantic Coast Conference’s Player of the Year for the second straight season — he’d gone 11-3 with a 3.08 ERA in 2022 — Lowder seems a lock to pitch in the middle of a big league rotation. Moreover, his arrival in Cincinnati should come in the not-too-distant future.
In terms of style, the native North Carolinian might best be described as a technician with multiple above-average offerings. Lowder’s repertoire comprises two- and four-seam fastballs, a slider, and a changeup, and he augments that arsenal with plus command and a feel for his craft that belies his level of experience. Mixing and matching is one of his strong suits, giving him an opportunity to navigate lineups deep into games.
———
David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite ice breakers: Do you view pitching as more of an art, or more of a science?
Rhett Lowder: “A little bit of both. In the offseason you can probably get into more of the science side of it, breaking yourself down. But during the season it’s more of an art; there are a bunch of different ways to to get the job done. Plus, everybody is unique. There is no cookie-cutter way to get outs.”
Laurila: Some of what I’ve read about you suggests craftsman, but are you actually more of a power guy?
Lowder: “I think it just really depends on the game. One of my stronger suits is that I can adjust based on the opponent, and on some days you have more overpowering stuff than you do on others. I can kind of be like a chameleon and change based on the environment and the game I’m in. I’m not necessarily the same exact guy every single time I go out there.
“There are some things I fall back on more times than not when I get into trouble, but going into most games, it really just depends on the [opponent]. I try to overlay my strengths over the other team’s weaknesses and kind of see where that leads me. I try to be able to adapt as quickly as possible.”
