Archive for Prospects Report 2019

Top 27 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Colorado Rockies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Rockies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Brendan Rodgers 22.8 MLB SS 2019 55
2 Garrett Hampson 24.6 MLB 2B 2019 50
3 Peter Lambert 22.1 AAA RHP 2019 50
4 Ryan Rolison 21.9 A+ LHP 2021 45
5 Colton Welker 21.6 AA 1B 2021 45
6 Ryan Vilade 20.3 A+ SS 2022 45
7 Tyler Nevin 22.0 AA 1B 2021 45
8 Grant Lavigne 19.8 A 1B 2022 40+
9 Terrin Vavra 22.0 A 2B 2021 40+
10 Ryan Castellani 23.2 AAA RHP 2020 40+
11 Riley Pint 21.6 A RHP 2021 40+
12 Julio Carreras 19.4 R SS 2023 40+
13 Helcris Olivarez 18.8 R LHP 2023 40
14 Vince Fernandez 23.8 AA LF 2020 40
15 Breiling Eusebio 22.6 A LHP 2021 40
16 Jesus Tinoco 24.1 AAA RHP 2019 40
17 Yency Almonte 25.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
18 Ronaiker Palma 19.4 R C 2023 40
19 Ryan Feltner 22.7 A RHP 2021 40
20 Josh Fuentes 26.3 MLB 3B 2019 40
21 Tommy Doyle 23.1 A+ RHP 2019 40
22 Ben Bowden 24.6 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Robert Tyler 23.9 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Fadriel Cruz 18.5 R 2B 2024 35+
25 Ezequiel Tovar 17.8 R SS 2024 35+
26 Eddy Diaz 19.3 R 2B 2023 35+
27 Justin Lawrence 24.5 AAA RHP 2020 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL) (COL)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 60/60 45/55 50/45 40/50 55/55

Rodgers stood out early in his high school career outside Orlando, FL as a regular on the showcase circuit who was often the best player on the field at high profile events while also being the youngest. He had mostly solid average tools and good feel through the middle of his prep career. Then in his senior year, the arm strength, raw power, and bat speed all became plus, and he was the odds on favorite to go first overall. But Dansby Swanson, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi, and fellow Florida prep hitter Kyle Tucker all took steps forward in the spring, and the Rockies were able to get Rodgers third overall.

In pro ball, Rodgers has benefitted form the Rockies’ affiliates being extreme hitters’ environments, which has mostly obscured in the surface stats the fact that his pitch selection is below average. It improved a bit in his second taste of Double-A in 2018, then became an issue again in his late-season promotion to Triple-A. He’s fringy at shortstop and as a runner, so most scouts see him sliding over to second base long-term, but he’s good enough to play shortstop everyday if a club doesn’t have better options and focuses on shifting and positioning around him. There’s enough here that it’s likely Rodgers is a solid everyday player of some sort in 2020, but he may not be the star that some have anticipated.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Long Beach State (COL)
Age 24.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 40/40 40/40 70/70 45/50 50/50

Hampson was a star at Long Beach State and a mainstay on the Team USA collegiate national team. Scouts doubted he’d stay at shortstop and were worried he wouldn’t have enough power to play second base, which is largely why Hampson fell to the third round of his draft despite three years of strong performance.

He’s hit for more power in pro ball than he ever did in college, probably because Long Beach’s marine layer makes it more difficult to hit for power there, and also because the Rockies affiliates are all launching pads. It’s hard to conclude that Hampson’s minor league power output (.457 SLG, mostly via doubles and triples) won’t continue because his future home is going to be Coors Field. He has also stolen way more bases as a pro than he did in college, peaking with 51 steals in 2017, and 38 last year. Rockies prospects are encouraged to run, but Hampson is indeed a 70 runner and will add value on big league basepaths. Though it’s unclear what the Rockies will do about the Daniel MurphyIan DesmondRyan McMahon logjam that spills over into second base (not to mention Brendan Rodgers’ recent call-up), Hampson seems like a good bet to be a solid everyday player for someone.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from San Dimas HS (CA) (COL)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 55/55 45/55 90-94 / 95

Like clockwork, Lambert has taken his turn in a Rockies minor league rotation every fifth (or sixth, or seventh, depending on off days) day since he signed. He’s also a robotic strike-thrower and has walked just 5% of hitters he has faced as a pro. Lambert has basically been this way since high school, when he was just too advanced, even for SoCal high schoolers. Nothing he throws is plus, though you could argue that the fastball is due to its odd approach angle. It sits in the mid-90s and lives in the top part of the strike zone, riding in on the hands of righties. His changeup is average, flashing above, and Lambert has long deployed it with veteran cunning, and he’ll run it back onto the glove-side corner of the plate for looking strikes.

He’s a hyper-efficient strike-thrower with a four-pitch mix, a high-probability fourth starter with little likely upside beyond that.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Ole Miss (COL)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/55 35/45 90-94 / 96

Rolison was a big name out of high school, reportedly turning down seven figures to go to Ole Miss knowing he would be an eligible sophomore due to his age. He had an up-and-down sophomore spring. Rolison came out of the chute blazing hot and had top-10 pick buzz for the first month of the season, then slowly regressed. Scouts thought he needed a delivery adjustment in to make him more direct to the plate, a way to improve his fastball control. They also thought he was too reliant on his curveball. To that point, hitters late in the season would sit on the pitch, knowing he had trouble locating his fastball and that he barely threw his changeup. It led to some bad outings, including one at South Carolina where he allowed 11 runs.

Since being drafted, Rolison has worked more frequently with all three of his pitches, throwing 66% of his pitches for strikes, and his velocity has remained in the 92-94 range even as he throws every fifth day (mostly) rather than once a week. He could end up with three above-average pitches and be a No. 4 or No. 4/5 starter.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (COL)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/60 45/55 35/30 40/45 55/55

The caveat surrounding amateur prospects like the one Welker was — big-bodied, risk of first base-only, limited power projection — is that they need to hit all the way up the minor league ladder for teams to value them, and Welker has done exactly that. He’s a .333 career hitter and has above-average raw power that manifests itself as doubles, largely because Welker is a free swinger who relies on his feel to hit to make contact rather than hunting pitches he can drive. He remains a tenuous bet to stay at third base, at best projecting as a 50 glove there for some teams, while he’s below average in our estimation. He’s a college-aged hitter performing at Double-A, and is a summer top 100 candidate if a majority of teams start to consider him a viable third baseman.

6. Ryan Vilade, SS
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Stillwater HS (OK) (COL)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 194 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/40 45/40 45/50 55/55

Vilade has not developed as expected to this point. We anticipated he’d move quickly to third base in pro ball, but hit for enough power to overcome it. Instead, he has held serve a shortstop and only just begun to see time at third, but has struggled to get to his considerable raw power in games. His lower half usage has improved, but Vilade’s bat still has downward entry into the hitting zone and he doesn’t extend well through contact. He has a nearly 50% groundball rate as a pro and ends up pushing a lot of contact the other way. There’s ceiling here because of Vilade’s shot to stay at short and adjust his way into game power, but there’s a low floor if he moves to third and can’t make tweaks.

7. Tyler Nevin, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Poway HS (CA) (COL)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 50/55 40/45 35/35 40/45 50/50

It’s hard to find scouts and teams who are all in on Nevin because a) he’s been hurt a lot and b) he profiles as a hit-over-power first baseman. Lean but big-framed, Nevin lacks the lateral agility to be anything more than a 40 or 45 defender at third base. We’ve seen him hit oppo homers but it comes from quality, barreled contact rather than raw strength and power. It’s an atypical offensive recipe for a first base prospect, and it’s rare for contact-centric first baseman to work out, especially when they hit right-handed. Teams have him evaluated as a corner infield tweener who either hits enough to be a regular or ends up on a bench.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Bedford HS (NH) (COL)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 30/55 40/35 45/50 50/50

After he looked just okay against his elite peers on the summer showcase circuit, Lavigne generated a ton of buzz as a senior the following spring. Northeast popup high schoolers have a dubious track record because they spend all spring mashing bad high school pitching, but lots of teams were in on Lavigne’s spike in power and thought he fit in the second tier of high school hitting prospects in the draft behind the likes of Nolan Gorman and Jarred Kelenic.

Lavigne has not shown that kind of power with the wooden bats in pro ball and his exit velos are actually a bit below big league average, though that’s less worrisome considering his age. He’s a first base-only defender and needs to absolutely mash to profile. We’re cautiously optimistic that he can do it, but he’s out of the gate a little slower than we anticipated.

9. Terrin Vavra, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Minnesota (COL)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 35/50 45/45 45/50 50/50

Vavra had a statistical breakout during his junior year at Minnesota — .386/.455/.614 with 10 homers, everything way up from his sophomore year — and ended up going on the high end of the third to fifth round range in which teams were considering him. He’s a patient hitter with an athletic swing who gets the most out of his slight build without often compromising his feel for contact. One source we spoke with thinks his swing is kind of grooved, but everyone else thinks he’s going to hit, have doubles power, and reach base at an above-average clip. That could play everyday if Vavra sticks at either shortstop or second base, which is where he’s seen time thus far in pro ball, but amateur evaluators thought he may ultimately end up at third base. A realistic outcome, should he shift to third, is that of a versatile lefty utility bat, but Vavra has a shot to be an everyday player.

10. Ryan Castellani, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Brophy Prep (AZ) (COL)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/45 50/55 40/45 91-94 / 96

At times Castellani looks like a mid-rotation starter, and at others he’s too wild to be effective. His tailing low-90s fastball has movement that mimics that of his well-located changeups, and Castellani’s slider has good length and bite away from right-handed hitters. He could garner whiffs with any of those pitches throughout a start. He doesn’t often get into counts where the changeup can be used, and he’s more likely to work back into counts with breaking stuff, often with his curveball.

11. Riley Pint, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS) (COL)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 70/70 50/55 20/30 97-99 / 102

It is not enough to say that Pint is having issues with control. Even pitchers walking guys at a 10% clip or worse face legitimate questions about their ability to start, and sometimes their ability to pitch in the big leagues at all. Pint is walking more than 30% of the hitters he faces right now, and has been moved to the Low-A bullpen. He simply can’t be a big leaguer with this kind of wildness, but his stuff remains incredible, among the best in the minors.

Through these struggles, Pint has continued to throw in the upper-90s with one of the harder power curveballs on the planet. He has top of the rotation stuff, but even those in amateur scouting who thought his delivery was too violent to repeat (which would make it tough to start) did not think Pint’s strike-throwing issues would be this much of a problem. We’d still take him ahead of relief-only types in this class because the stuff is so good, teams felt good about his makeup before the draft, and Pint is still pretty young. With time, he’s pretty likely to figure something out, though it’s suddenly very likely to be in some kind of bullpen role.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 166 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 40/50 20/40 60/60 45/55 55/60

Carreras’ swing needs work. His stride and bat path both have problems, but he swings hard and has promising hand-eye coordination and bat control despite his current issues. Additionally, Carreras has a lean, projectable frame, he’s a plus runner and athletic infield defender who already has experience at multiple positions, and he has above-average bat speed. Some of the mechanical components in the batters box will need to improve, but the raw material here is exciting. Most players this age are older high school or junior college draft prospects. Measured against amateur players his age, Carreras would probably go in the top 50 picks.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 192 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 30/45 30/45 92-95 / 96

Olivarez has had trouble throwing strikes during at least a few of his Extended starts, but he has enviable stuff and physical projection for a teenage lefty. He’s been sitting in the mid-90s this spring and will flash the occasional plus curveball, though the curve has so much velocity separation from the heater that it may be easy for upper-level hitters to lay off. Though he has an ideal frame and his delivery has a beautiful finish, with his rear leg flying up toward the sky à la Cole Hamels as Olivarez follows through, he doesn’t repeat yet, and his control is quite rough as a result. There’s a sizable developmental gap between where Olivarez is now and where he’d need to be to profile as a starting pitching prospect, but he’s young and has traits (velo, spin, frame) coveted in this age group.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from UC Riverside (COL)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/55 45/40 45/50 40/40

Fernandez is purported to have been one of Texas’ PTBNL options in the Jonathan Lucroy trade, and he’s outhit Pedro Gonzalez (whom the Rangers ended up taking) to this point, to the tune of a .275/.365/.520 career line. He’s performed up through Double-A, albeit as a slightly old-for-the-level prospect and in hitter-friendly environs. Fernandez strikes out a lot and he only fits in left field, but he is the youngest and most impressive statistical performer of a large group of lefty outfield power hitters in this system. They all realistically project as the larger half of a corner platoon.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/55 40/45 89-94 / 96

Eusebio had a breakout 2017, then blew out his elbow early in 2018. He’s back throwing bullpens as this list goes to publication. The flashes of brilliance he showed during 2017 Extended indicated a potential No. 4 starter future, as Eusebio’s fastball would creep into the mid-90s and he’d show you a good change and breaking ball. He casts a lot of his pitches to his arm side and mechanical consistency and command are the biggest parts of his development, as he’ll need to improve in that area to remain a starter. Of course, that’s assuming his pre-surgery stuff returns.

16. Jesus Tinoco, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 263 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/40 40/40 93-95 / 97

Tinoco has taken his four-pitch mix to the bullpen. His fastball is hard and comes in at a very tough angle while his slider and curveball each flash plus, though they’re sometimes (especially the curve) easy to identify out of his hand, and he doesn’t miss as many bats as is typical for someone with this kind of power stuff. Tinoco has had some injury issues, but the relief role may help keep him healthier moving forward. He should debut at some point this season.

17. Yency Almonte, RHP
Drafted: 17th Round, 2012 from Columbia HS (FL) (LAA)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 45/50 40/45 93-96 / 97

Almonte has moved to the bullpen and upped the usage of his mid-90s fastball and above-average slider. He’s a big league-ready relief piece.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 40/40 45/55 60/60

He’s quite little, but Palma is an athletic backstop with catch and throw skills, as well as advanced feel for contact. He’s twitchy and mobile, which bodes well for his ball-blocking future, and he’s a fine receiver and pitch framer already, though he hasn’t caught a lot of big league-quality stuff yet. It’s possible the physical grind of catching will take an outsized toll on Palma’s little body and he won’t hit enough to be anything, but on tools, at the very least, he looks like a good backup catching prospect.

19. Ryan Feltner, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Ohio State (COL)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 35/40 92-95 / 97

Feltner spent a chunk of his college career in the bullpen, and he projects in a big league relief role for most pro teams. His arm action is quite long, and while he can bully hitters with his fastball in the zone, he lacks precise command of his stuff. Feltner throws hard, though, and his changeup has big time arm side movement. It’s going to miss big league bats, but an average, slurvy breaking ball likely won’t be able to unless he can start to put it where he wants to more exactly. Unlike most of the other pitching prospects in this system, Feltner hasn’t had a myriad of injury issues and is still being developed as a starter.

20. Josh Fuentes, 3B
(COL)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 50/50 40/40 40/40 55/55

Fuentes is a 3B/1B with plus power and some swing and miss issues, problems that will likely relegate him to bench/platoon duty in the big leagues.

21. Tommy Doyle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Virginia (COL)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 45/50 95-97 / 96

The Rockies made Doyle their second consecutive second round college reliever in 2017 and after his velocity was way down just after his draft, he has since been as advertised. Mid-90s fastball, plus slider, a typical middle relief fit. He’s on pace to help the Rockies bullpen next year.

22. Ben Bowden, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt (COL)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 40/40 92-95 / 96

Some teams thought Bowden had been buried by the pitching depth at Vanderbilt and might be able to start in pro ball. A second round pick and $1.6 million bonus were indicators that the Rockies might be one of them but, perhaps in part due to injury, he’s only pitched in relief as a pro. He has a mid-90s sinker and plus changeup, which should enable him to pitch in middle relief.

23. Robert Tyler, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Georgia (COL)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 55/60 30/40 96-97 / 98

Tyler has a long arm action and he’s had injury issues dating back to college, but he throws in the mid-90s and has a plus changeup, so he’s likely to be a solid reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

24. Fadriel Cruz, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 18.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Of all the players signed during the 2017 July 2 span, Cruz had the most promising feel to hit. He’s a lefty infield bat with natural feel for lift, a projectable frame, and a good chance of staying at second base, though he’ll probably only be okay there.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (COL)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 162 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Lots of Rockies prospects are two-year DSL guys by virtue of the fact that the Rockies have no AZL team, but Tovar is so physically immature that he’d probably be of that ilk anyway. He does have some feel to hit from both sides of the plate and his swing has some natural lift when he’s swinging left-handed, but he’d have to get much stronger for that to matter at all. He has plus hands and infield footwork and will likely grow into enough arm strength for the left side. It’ll likely be a long time before he’s anything at all, and he may end up as a utility infielder at best, but switch-hitting middle infield fits typically find big league roles.

26. Eddy Diaz, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (COL)
Age 19.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 171 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Diaz is the first Cuban amateur ever signed by Colorado. He’s an athletic, instinctive middle infield prospect with modest physical projection and promising bat to ball skills. He has all-fields feel for contact and will likely be a hit-over-power offensive player by a good margin. He’s seen action all over the infield but the bat might only profile at shortstop in an everyday capacity. He’s more likely a utility type.

27. Justin Lawrence, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Daytona State JC (FL) (COL)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lawrence is a side-armer with a tailing, upper-90s fastball and sweeping slider. It’s late-inning stuff, but too often Lawrence struggles with control and pitch execution. It needs to improve if he’s to lock down a big league bullpen role at all, but there’s ceiling here due to the stuff.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Vanilla Pitchability
Alfredo Garcia, LHP
Will Gaddis, RHP
Mitchell Kilkenny, RHP

All of these guys project to be able to take a turn in a rotation if needed, and some may cement themselves as backend starter types. Garcia is 19 and missing bats at Low-A while sitting 90-93 with an average changeup and curveball. He generates plus-plus extension. Gaddis has 45 stuff and had 60 command projection as an amateur, but the strikes have backed up. Kilkenny had Tommy John last summer and may not toe a pro affiliate’s mound until he’s 23 next year.

Young Developmental Sleepers
Bladdy Restutiyo, INF
Walking Cabrera, RF
Daniel Montano, OF
Yolki Pena, OF
Shael Mendoza, 2B
Cristopher Navarro, SS

Restutiyo is an athletic, projectable infielder who is currently playing several positions. Cabrera is a traditional right field profile with some power, arm strength, and a big, skinny frame that should add lots of good mass. Pena is just a physical projection teenager who also walked a lot last year. Montano has quick hitter’s hands but may not do enough with the bat to profile in a corner. Mendoza has pop but has regressed on defense; Navarro has a good glove but has regressed with the bat.

Bench Types
Dom Nunez, C
Yonathan Daza, OF
Sam Hilliard, OF
Roberto Ramos, 1B
Brian Mundell, 1B

Nunez is crushing Triple-A. He can catch, he walks, and the rest of his tools are 40s. Hilliard has huge power but can’t touch lefties at all. Ramos and Mundell have Quad-A traits.

Relievers
Rico Garcia, RHP
Reid Humphreys, RHP
Raymells Rosa, RHP
Alfredo Martinez, RHP
Shelby Lackey, RHP

Garcia is starting right now, but his 93-96 and average secondaries project in the bullpen. Humphreys sits 92-95 and has an average breaking ball. Rosa is a loose, athletic 21-year-old who sits 93-94 with an average breaker. Martinez touches 96 and has an above-average curveball. Lackey was a late round draft pick who has been up to 98.

System Overview

The list of recent, early-round Rockies pitcher draftees is terrifying. Peter Lambert is working out. Pint is teetering. David Hill, Javier Medina, Mike Nikorak, Robert Tyler, Mitch Kilkenny, and Ben Bowden have all had injury problems, and 2017 fourth rounder Pearson McMahan is listed on milb.com as having been released already. That’s a lot of misses early in the last few drafts. On some level, this is damning. But look at the 40-man roster and you’ll see that an overwhelming majority of the talent on a competitive club was developed from within. Are the Rockies good at this or not? It depends on how you look at it.

They frustrate scouts, though. The Rockies are notoriously difficult to ply information from, even when it seems logical and in their interest to disseminate that info — like accurate rosters for the backfields, pitching probables, etc. — in the minds of opposing scouts. Is it in a team’s best interest for other teams to like their prospects? Scouts would say yes, but the Rockies don’t always behave as though they think that’s true.

Can we identify talent acquisition trends? The pitchability college arm has been a popular early Day 2 option for Colorado, though it hasn’t really yielded much lately. Up-the-middle performers have panned out well (Hampson, Rodgers, Vilade, and Vavra look good). Last year’s DSL group, which is currently in extended spring training, is deep and interesting. One or two players from that group could emerge as a 45 FV or better this year, though the lack of an AZL affiliate means this group will either need to face Pioneer League pitching or head back to the DSL for the summer, even though they’re age-appropriate for Arizona.


Top 32 Prospects: Arizona Diamondbacks

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Diamondbacks Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jazz Chisholm 21.3 AA SS 2022 55
2 Daulton Varsho 22.9 AA C 2021 50
3 Jon Duplantier 24.9 MLB RHP 2019 50
4 Taylor Widener 24.6 AAA RHP 2019 50
5 Kristian Robinson 18.5 R CF 2023 50
6 Geraldo Perdomo 19.6 A SS 2022 45+
7 Alek Thomas 19.1 A CF 2022 45
8 Alvin Guzman 17.6 R CF 2024 45
9 Liover Peguero 18.4 R SS 2024 40+
10 Matt Tabor 20.9 A RHP 2022 40+
11 Blaze Alexander 20.0 A SS 2022 40+
12 Jake McCarthy 21.8 A+ CF 2021 40+
13 Domingo Leyba 23.7 AAA 2B 2019 40
14 Andy Young 25.0 AA 2B 2020 40
15 Wilderd Patino 17.9 R CF 2023 40
16 Luis Frias 21.0 A- RHP 2022 40
17 Josh Green 23.7 A+ RHP 2021 40
18 Taylor Clarke 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
19 Yoan Lopez 26.4 MLB RHP 2019 40
20 Drew Ellis 23.5 AA 3B 2021 40
21 Pavin Smith 23.3 AA 1B 2020 40
22 Eduardo Diaz 21.9 A CF 2022 40
23 Emilio Vargas 22.8 AA RHP 2020 40
24 Kevin Ginkel 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
25 Jhosmer Alvarez 17.9 R RHP 2023 35+
26 Matt Mercer 22.7 A+ RHP 2022 35+
27 Jackson Goddard 22.5 A RHP 2022 35+
28 Jorge Barrosa 18.3 R CF 2023 35+
29 Matt Peacock 25.3 AA RHP 2020 35+
30 Ryan Weiss 22.5 A RHP 2021 35+
31 Tyler Holton 23.0 R LHP 2022 35+
32 Justin Lewis 23.7 A RHP 2021 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (ARI)
Age 21.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/55 40/55 55/55 50/55 55/55

Few infielders in the minors have Jazz’s bat speed, and even fewer have his swagger and flare. Though his high-effort hacks detract from his ability to make contact, Chisholm has shocking power for someone his size. When he really cuts it loose (which is often), he rotates with a violence and explosion reminiscent of Javier Baez and, like Baez, Chisholm is a high-risk prospect whose all-or-nothing style of hitting might ultimately be his undoing.

He has a one-note approach that mostly consists of him trying to ambush first-pitch fastballs. He’ll take some ugly swings when he’s cheating on a heater and instead gets something offspeed, though he has the bat control to put these balls in play if they’re near the zone. His strikeout rate (29% for his career) in undoubtedly a red flag, but because Chisholm is such a clean fit at shortstop (plus range, actions, and arm), he has some wiggle room on the offensive side, and shortstops with this kind of pop don’t exactly grow on trees. There’s star ceiling here, but also volcanic instability.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Wisconsin-Milwaukee (ARI)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 40/45 55/55 40/45 45/45

The list of catchers with speed comparable to Varsho’s is pretty short. J.T. Realmuto and Jorge Alfaro are two current examples, but Varsho reaches a top speed faster than either of them, and is an actual threat to steal bases. He’s also a doubles machine with natural feel for gap-to-gap contact, and if soft liners trickle between outfielders, Varsho can turn those into hustle doubles.

He remains a below-average receiver and often has trouble firmly squeezing balls in his glove, at times struggling to block breaking stuff in the dirt. Because Varsho is an above-average athlete, most scouts think these aspects of catching will become viable in time and that Varsho may just be behind in this regard due to his cold weather, small school background. His fringe arm strength plays up on scouts’ stopwatches because he’s very quick out of his crouch, so Dbacks games won’t turn into track meets with him behind the plate. He has a good chance to be an offensive-minded, everyday catcher.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Rice (ARI)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/50 45/55 50/55 91-96 / 97

Duplantier had been injury free since college (when he dealt with shoulder problems), until 2018, when he had hamstring issues in the spring, and biceps tendinitis later in the summer. The lost innings resulted in an Arizona Fall League stint, during which Duplantier was arguably the best non-Whitley pitching prospect who was a lock to start. Despite the biceps issue, his velocity was fine in the fall. Duplantier sits 93-96 and makes heavy use of three good secondary pitches. The horizontal action on his slider only plays away from righties, but the curveball and changeup will help mitigate some of those issues, as well as the platoon issues that may arise from Duplantier’s lower arm slot.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (NYY)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 50/55 50/55 50/55 90-94 / 96

He doesn’t throw especially hard but the baseball appears to explode out of Widener’s hand, and it often gets on hitters much quicker than they’re expecting. Acquired in that massive, three-team, Steven Souza deal, Widener is a curvaceous 6-foot righty with several above-average pitches and average command. Much of the industry thought he was a reliever coming out of college, but the Yankees and Dbacks bought in on Widener as a starter, and they appear to have been correct.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Bahamas (ARI)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/70 30/60 60/55 40/50 60/60

The 2018 extended spring rehab group at Salt River Fields often included Jake Lamb and Steven Souza. Robinson, still 17 at the time, was just as big as both of them and about as fast as Souza, who is a 60 runner underway. Robinson is a Bahamian man-child, built like an SEC wide receiver and about as fast once he really gets going. He performed fairly well in his first pro season and was pushed to the Pioneer League late in the summer.

He has some swing and miss issues, and his bat path needs some work to get to all the power that’s coming, but the foundation for a combination of contact and power is present. It’s unlikely that Robinson stays in center field forever, and he may even need to move to right while he’s still in the minors, but the power that comes with all that good weight could approach the top of the scale. He’s a high risk, high upside teenage power-hitting prospect.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/40 60/55 45/55 55/55

Perdomo is among the most advanced switch-hitting teenagers on the planet, possessing innate feel for contact from both sides of the plate despite what can sometimes be an awkward-looking swing. As of list publication, he has a plus-plus walk rate over about 150 pro plate appearances, enough to be confident that he has value-adding feel for the strike zone. Not only that, but he is a potential 55 or 60 glove at short. Already procedurally advanced, Perdomo will likely get quicker and more explosive as his body matures, but his frame is not so large that he projects to third base; he’s a high-probability middle infielder.

The quality of Perdomo’s contact may eventually result in power output beyond his raw grade; he’ll be a star if that happens. If not, a defensive asset at short with a plus bat and excellent ball/strike recognition is still an everyday player.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Mount Carmel HS (IL) (ARI)
Age 19.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/40 60/60 50/55 40/40

Pre-draft questions about Thomas focused on his physicality, or lack thereof, despite his long track record of hitting against elite competition at amateur showcase events around the country. He’s well-conditioned, but short, built narrowly, and likely to max out with a frame similar to Brett Gardner’s. And Thomas projects to have a similar skillset. It’s rare that a high school hitter from Chicago is this polished, especially one as young as Thomas, who was barely 18 on draft day.

He runs well enough to project in center field (though his reads from the corners are much better right now and he might just be a plus corner glove, also like Gardner), which makes the unenthusiastic, frame-based power projection less concerning. There’s some tweener fourth outfielder risk here because of the lack of power projection and potential move off of center field, but it’s reasonable to hope some combination of contact, on base ability, and defense make up for that and enable Thomas to be a regular.

8. Alvin Guzman, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/55 20/50 60/60 40/55 70/70

Signed for $1.85 million last July, Guzman has yet to set foot on a baseball field in the U.S., but he’s already one of the most exciting players in this system. He has a rare combination of speed, frame, and swing foundation, a triumvirate that gives Guzman a chance to be a five-tool star, something most prospects simply don’t have a chance to become.

He has a loose, whippy swing that he doesn’t always control, and had among the best straightline speed in the 2018 July 2 class. The footspeed makes Guzman a rangy outfield defender and likely to stay in center. His hands have enough life in the box that he might do offensive damage, too. We have no data on important aspects of Guzman’s ultimate profile, making him as risky a prospect as he is skilled. He may not come stateside until this fall for instructional league, unless he so convincingly dominates the DSL that Arizona is compelled to promote him.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/50 20/40 60/60 45/55 55/55

Teams with Extended Spring coverage in Arizona were split as to which of the two Dbacks shortstop prospects they preferred until Geraldo Perdomo separated himself with his summer performance. Some teams were early Peguero advocates, citing his age, superior athleticism, and a build comparable to a young Jean Segura’s.

Like most of Arizona’s teenage shortstop prospects, Peguero earned a late-summer promotion with early-season performance, slashing .309/.356/.457 in the DSL. His swing is shorter than a mid-inning station identification and he takes good at-bats for someone his age, so there’s big ceiling on the hit tool if his timing at the plate improves. He’s also a rangy defender with a plus arm and at least average hands. He can go into the hole, backhand a ball, plant, and hose runners. The frame isn’t favorable for power projection, but Peguero’s hands are so quick that he might be able to pull and lift enough balls to actually produce some homers. His swing is not currently geared for that type of contact, though. Regardless, the bat and defensive ability is promising, as is the frame and athletic ability. He has everyday shortstop upside.

10. Matt Tabor, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Milton Academy HS (MA) (ARI)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/60 35/50 91-94 / 95

Tabor’s velocity seems to have plateaued after it exploded as his wiry frame filled out later in high school. He’s sitting in the low-90s, with a breaking ball and changeup that each flash above average. He’s athletic, his arm slot creates rise on his fastball and bat-missing, vertical action on his breaking stuff, and Tabor has unusually good feel for his changeup, especially for a northeast prep arm. It looks like he’s going to move along developmentally with the advanced teenagers from last year’s rookie-ball group. He’s the best long-term pitching prospect in this system, and has a chance to be a No. 4 starter if the velo finds another gear, more likely a No. 4/5 if it does not.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from IMG Academy HS (FL) (ARI)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 50/55 20/45 45/40 45/50 80/80

Alexander fell out of the top 10 rounds of last year’s draft due to questions about his signability, hit tool, and age relative to his peers. He was almost 19 on draft day, which, combined with the strikeout issues, moved him way down the boards of teams who care about those variables, especially together. He ended up signing for a very reasonable $500,000, then hit .362 against AZL pitching and was eventually promoted to the Pioneer League.

He’s an advanced defender with an 80 arm (the teams most bearish on his bat in high school wanted to see him on the mound) and above-average raw power, which Alexander’s pre-daft proponents insisted he’d get to despite the strikeouts. We don’t know much about the plate discipline aspect of the profile yet. The low end of the spectrum makes the offensive skillset read like Tim Beckham’s, but Alexander projects as a better defender.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 25/40 60/60 45/50 40/40

McCarthy’s older brother Joe was a hyped prospect who slid on draft day due to a down spring stemming from a back issue. Jake also missed most of his draft spring, but with a broken wrist. He returned not long before the draft and did not look very good, and teams had mixed opinions about him on draft day. Some thought he just needed more time to get back to full strength and speed, while others were scared off by their post-injury looks, which were so bad that multiple scouts told us they thought he may have been better off sitting out rather than giving teams a bad look just before the draft.

At his best, McCarthy shows at least average raw power, plus speed, some feel to hit, and is a center field fit. His swing is naturally geared for opposite field contact, which will likely cap his power output unless he undergoes a swing change. That will be less necessary if McCarthy stays in center field. Season-long failure to hit in the Cal League will leave us with more questions about McCarthy than we had entering the year, especially if his early-season struggles with strikeouts persist.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 23.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 40/40 30/35 45/45 45/50 50/50

There are lots of different ways to frame arguments about Leyba. On the one hand, he’s a switch-hitting middle infielder who has made lots of contact — Leyba is a .285 career hitter — over six pro seasons. On the other, he has been hurt a lot — shoulder surgery, most recently — and may be painted into too small a defensive corner to be rosterable if he doesn’t hit enough to be a regular. It’s important to be mindful of prospect fatigue creeping in here, as Leyba really broke out during the summer of 2014 when as a teenager, he hit a combined .323 in the Penn and Midwest Leagues. He was sent to Arizona as part of the three-way, Didi Gregorius-headlined trade that offseason, had a bad 2015 in the Cal League, bounced back in 2016, and has basically been hurt since.

Because of Leyba’s size and lack of power, he has to keep making high-end rates of contact to profile as an everyday player. If he lacks sufficient arm strength for shortstop coming out of the shoulder surgery, it puts even more pressure on the hit tool, because a bench role is less feasible for someone without defensive versatility.

14. Andy Young, 2B
Drafted: 37th Round, 2016 from Indiana State (STL)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 45/55 40/40 40/45 50/50

Middle infielders with power are rare and yet Young, who is exactly that, somehow lasted until the 37th round of his draft and signed for just $3,000. This is the Cardinals’ archetypical draftee — a power-first prospect with questionable mobility. Collect enough of these and, through a combination of luck and good player development, some of them will turn into passable defenders and become solid big leaguers or tradable assets like Young, who was sent to Arizona in the Paul Goldschmidt deal.

Though he does most of his damage on pitches on the inner half, Young has enough barrel control to spoil pitches away from him until he gets something he can square up. When Young connects, he does so with power. Buff and square-shouldered, Young’s physicality is a driving component of his power but it’s also why he’s somewhat limited defensively. Young has seen time at shortstop, third base, and left field as a pro but was mostly kept at second base in 2018. He should be a passable defender there, but his lack of defensive versatility could be a barrier to a call-up unless he hits enough to be an everyday player. He’s a realistic internal candidate to play the kind of role Wilmer Flores is currently playing on Arizona’s active roster.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 55/60 25/45 60/60 45/55 60/60

Toolsy and physical, Patino has an exciting combination of speed and power, as well as promising ball/strike recognition. What he appears to lack at this point is barrel control and a bat path that enables the power. Those are important components and may not be easy to fix, especially the bat control issue. But Patino’s ball/strike and breaking ball recognition could help mitigate those issues, and his ceiling (a high OBP center fielder with power) is lofty if they’re overcome. A max-effort player with a fairly mature build, Patino seems poised to have a strong statistical summer against AZL pitching and defenses, perhaps enough that he’ll see some Northwest League time late in the year.

16. Luis Frias, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 45/50 40/50 40/45 93-97 / 99

At times, Frias looks like a stiff, velo-only bullpen prospect. At others, he’s competing in or near the zone with four pitches, including a splitter that got much better over the winter. All four pitches give hitters a vastly different look. Frias’ mid-90s fastball has tailing action, his curveball has vertical depth and eats up hitters who are cheating on velo, the split has late bottom when it’s on, and the slider has horizontal, cutting action. The movement profile of Frias’ fastball may not be the best for missing bats, but it’s likely to be an impact pitch because of the velocity. He could end up with three average secondaries (there’s a chance the split becomes better than that) and enough strikes to start, making him a potential No. 4/5 starter.

17. Josh Green, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2018 from Southeastern Louisiana (ARI)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

Green was a 14th round senior sign last year and like most senior signs, had 45/50 stuff in college. He was 90-94 with two average breaking balls and had little college experience because he didn’t move into the rotation until his senior season.

This spring, however, Green’s stuff was up. He was 92-95, touching 96, and flashing plus secondary stuff including a good changeup. The Dbacks may have found something here, though there’s no way to be sure if the velo uptick will hold water or not. He has No. 4 starter stuff if it does, and some scouts with Dbacks coverage this spring prefered Green to several more high-profile arms in the system. He’s currently on the IL with biceps tendinitis.

18. Taylor Clarke, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Charleston (ARI)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 50/50 50/50 50/55 91-94 / 95

Clarke has a four-pitch mix that plays in part because of big extension. He has feel for locating his cutter (glove side) and change (arm side) better than he does for his other pitches, but his fastball sneaks up on hitters because of the extension, so Clarke has command margin for error in the strike zone. He’s a low-variance fifth starter prospect who should see significant big league time this season.

19. Yoan Lopez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Cuba (ARI)
Age 26.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 45/45 93-97 / 99

Lopez seems to have moved past a tumultuous first few chapters of his Dbacks tenure and settled into a seventh and eighth inning role. He blows upper-90s heat past hitters at the top of the zone and above it, and he generates flaccid swings at his slider when working away from righties. Once developed as a starter, the return of a third pitch might enable Lopez to be an elite reliever down the line, if he doesn’t already have high-leverage stuff. He’s under team control until 2025 and has unusually high trade value for a single-inning reliever, especially for teams unconcerned about his early issues.

20. Drew Ellis, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Louisville (ARI)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 30/55 40/30 40/45 50/50

Ellis has a very quiet, easy swing but somehow still generates plus power. He has middling pitch recognition, which sometimes causes him to mistime pitches. This manifests as lots of awkward or checked swings, but he doesn’t typically flail and whiff, and Ellis is strong enough that the contact has a chance to be meaningful even if he didn’t take a great cut. It’s a fair, power-over-hit corner profile that takes a hit if Ellis should ever need to move to first base. So far he’s been playable, but not impactful, at third.

21. Pavin Smith, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Virginia (ARI)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 35/40 40/40 40/45 45/45

Smith struck out just 12 times as a college junior and had 25 more walks than strikeouts during his entire UVA tenure. Pre-draft questions about his ability to hit for power in games have proven to be pertinent. But Smith hits and he walks, so a relevant swing change, even one that sacrifices some contact, could lead to a breakout here. After some early-season statistical indicators that one might be occurring, Smith’s groundball rate has regressed to the mean. He’s a speculative low-end regular at first base.

22. Eduardo Diaz, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/55 30/50 55/55 40/50 60/60

After a strong 2017, Diaz spent 2018 injured (twice) and unproductive. His physical tools remain the same; Diaz runs and throws well, and has above-average bat speed and power. While some of his 2018 swoon was a result of injury and the offensive environment in the Midwest League, some of his issues were also swing-related. He has to take big, long, full-armed hacks to generate that bat speed, and so he lacks elegant feel for the barrel. He’s playing both outfield corners now, not center. It makes the hit tool problems more of a concern, but ultimately, this is a college-aged hitter with tools that come off the board fairly early on day two.

23. Emilio Vargas, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 40/50 89-94 / 95

Vargas’ delivery has a cadence that hitters seem able to time, but it’s graceful, athletic, and repeatable. He has burgeoning control of No. 4/5 starter stuff, led by a two-plane breaking ball that Vargas can locate in the zone and beneath consistently. He’s well built, throws pretty hard, and has performed up through Double-A, and he’s now on the 40-man. There’s a chance he sees his first big league time this season.

24. Kevin Ginkel, RHP
Drafted: 22th Round, 2016 from Arizona (ARI)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 55/55 40/40 93-96 / 97

Ginkel’s velocity has exploded since college, and he now sits 93-96 with tough angle. He also has two good secondaries, a change and slider that both have late, downward movement. He’s a likely long-term bullpen piece.

35+ FV Prospects

25. Jhosmer Alvarez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 17.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Alvarez signed for $65,000 in 2017. Newly 18 and still fairly projectable, Alvarez has already touched 95 and is flashing a plus split. He has below-average breaking ball spin but sometimes creates good shape and depth on it. He’ll be measured against recently-drafted high school arms in this year’s AZL, and there are some pitchability and breaking ball questions that need answering, but the velo and splitter are promising.

26. Matt Mercer, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Oregon (ARI)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Mercer was a max-effort 94-97 in college, had scattershot fastball command, and a plus changeup. His velo is down and neither of his two breaking balls has great movement. We think he’s a Tyler Clippard-style changeup reliever so long as the velocity returns.

27. Jackson Goddard, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Kansas (ARI)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Goddard was worked hard at Kansas, sometimes throwing around 120 pitches several starts in a row, and his velocity was down after last year’s draft. He’s a big-framed guy with average stuff that plays up due to extension and his fastball has life that competes in the strike zone. Realistically he’s a fifth or sixth starter but let’s see how the fastball plays and what happens to the velocity when Goddard is handled in a way that prioritizes development rather than winning Big 12 games.

28. Jorge Barrosa, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 18.3 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / L FV 35+

Barrosa isn’t toolsy but he has good feel to hit from both sides of the plate and terrific defensive instincts in center field. He’s stout and not very projectable, but already looks like a potential bench out field type who can play all three spots and let you match up late in games.

29. Matt Peacock, RHP
Drafted: 23th Round, 2017 from South Alabama (ARI)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Peacock has a heavy, mid-90s sinker that has enabled him to generate a 78% groundball rate this year. His slider has a 2800 rpm spin rate but visual evaluations of that pitch put it closer to average. His changeup moves and tails, but is often easy to identify out of his hand due to altered release/arm speed. On some level, Peacock is a one-pitch 25-year-old, but on another he has a dominant, grounder-inducing fastball and his secondaries have some characteristics that may just need to be refined for one or both of them to be effective.

30. Ryan Weiss, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Wright State (ARI)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Weiss is a four-pitch (maybe five — there may be both a slider and cutter) strike-thrower whose overhand, trebuchet delivery creates vertical action on most of his stuff. He may be a backend starter.

31. Tyler Holton, LHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2018 from Florida State (ARI)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Holton blew out his elbow in his first 2018 start at Florida State and needed Tommy John. He was only throwing 87-90 before the injury but both his changeup and breaking ball were flashing plus. So long as his stuff comes back after surgery, he’ll probably carve the lower minors. There are some instances of velocity upticks coming out of Tommy John (Walker Buehler is a prominent recent example) and if Holton has one, he’ll rocket up this list.

32. Justin Lewis, RHP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Kentucky (ARI)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lewis got $125,000 in the 2018 12th round. He’s very tall, long, and is athletic for his size, and he has great changeup feel. He has below-average fastball velocity, but it plays up a few ticks because of extension, and Lewis doesn’t often make crushable mistakes. His slider is okay when it’s located, but the changeup is Lewis’ best swing and miss option against hitters of either handedness. He has sixth starter stuff on the surface, but there’s a chance that 6 or better command develops late (Lewis is already 23) because of Lewis’ size. If that happens, he’ll pitch in the back of a rotation.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-Level Depth Types
Tim Locastro, OF
Kevin Cron, 1B
Jamie Westbrook, LF

Locastro would have been in the 40 FV tier on this list if he were still playing the infield. He’s a plus runner who can play all three outfield spots, he makes a lot of contact (career .290 pro hitter), and he gets hit by pitches in about 6% of his plate appearances, which is twice what is typical for the major’s active leaders like Shin-Soo Choo, and the recently retired Chase Utley. He’s 26 and looks like an up and down or fifth outfielder. Cron, also 26, has Quad-A first base-only traits but sometimes guys like this break out when they get a big league chance (Luke Voit, Jesus Aguilar, Christian Walker). Some sustain that success; others do not. Westbrook made a relevant swing change over 2017-2018 and went from a contact-only hitter to one with some relevant pop, just not enough to play left field everyday.

Catchers, Including a Speculative One
Buddy Kennedy, 3B
Dominic Miroglio, C
Andrew Yerzy, C
Jose Herrera, C
Ryan January, C

Kennedy is really hitting as a 20-year-old in the Midwest League. His swing is handsy and weird, and we’re pretty skeptical about the bat (especially the game power aspect) despite Kennedy’s pro track record of hitting. Athletically, he’s not a lock to stay at third base. His bat would have the best chance of profiling at catcher and he has traits (plus arm, elite makeup) that make a conversion seem feasible. Miroglio has a plus arm and is a good receiver. He may be a backup. Yerzy has big power but probably ends up at first base. Herrera has been hurt a few times during his career, and he missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, but he has had stretches of good offensive performance before and he’s hitting now, albeit as a 22-year-old repeating the Midwest League. He’s a switch-hitting sleeper with some warts. January has a nice lefty swing and plus bat speed, but he was left back in Extended and is now 22, a sign he’s behind Herrera on the org depth chart.

Young Pitching
Diomede Sierra, LHP
Junior Mieses, RHP
Junior Garcia, LHP
Mack Lemiuex, LHP
Levi Kelly, RHP

Sierra, who shares a birthday with Butters Stotch, is a projectable, 17-year-old, low three-quarters lefty who was sitting 88-90 as an amateur and has some sweeping slider feel. Mieses has a long way to go as a strike thrower but he’s young, athletic, and will bump 96. His slurve is also promising. Garcia and Lemieux have good breaking balls, each averaging about 2700 rpm; Garcia throws a little harder. They need a way to get righties out with the new relief usage rules coming. Kelly throws the hardest of this group, often touching 96-97, but he’s a stiff, relief-only prospect for us.

Guys with Changeups
Harrison Francis, RHP
Bo Takahashi, RHP
Joey Krehbiel, RHP
Ryan Atkinson, RHP
Adrian Del Moral, RHP

This is self-explanatory. Francis has the best combo of youth and projection in this group. You could argue Takahashi’s best secondary is his curveball, but the change is good. He’s a strike-throwing four-pitch guy who could be a spot starting, swingman type. Krehbiel and Atkinson are changeup-centric relievers who are close to the bigs. Del Moral is a 20-year-old pitchability prospect with four pitches, and is mostly 92-93 with the heater.

System Overview

Aside from the contingent of upper-level pitching (Duplantier, Widener, Clarke), this system is simmering with 17-20 year olds. It’s about to be even more flush with players in that age range, as the Dbacks prepare for what will almost certainly be a huge draft class. They have eight of the first 100 picks thanks to things like the Goldschmidt trade, the Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock free agent departures, and an unsigned first rounder from last year’s class (Matt McLain, who had a disappointing freshman season at UCLA), and it has been all hands on deck for the front office in preparation. Even members of the pro scouting department have been out at games this spring as the org prepares for what might be the most important single day for an individual franchise on this year’s baseball calendar.

Arizona has been a pleasant, competitive surprise this season despite operating in semi-rebuild mode this past winter. During that time, they acquired players who aren’t “prospects” but who project to be part of the team when it’s truly contending again. Luke Weaver and Carson Kelly will be around for the next half decade, as will versatile uber-athlete, Ketel Marte. Their depth, especially on the pitching side, is now being stress-tested by injuries. Should it soon prove fatal to their record, trades of veteran performers like Adam Jones, Jarrod Dyson, Greg Holland, and Zack Greinke could add to the system, too. This could be a top five farm by the end of the summer if some of the youngest guys (Guzman, Perdomo, Robinson, etc.) improve and perform.


Top 29 Prospects: San Francisco Giants

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Francisco Giants. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Giants Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Joey Bart 22.4 A+ C 2020 55
2 Heliot Ramos 19.7 A+ CF 2023 45+
3 Marco Luciano 17.6 R SS 2023 45+
4 Alexander Canario 19.0 R RF 2023 45
5 Gregory Santos 19.7 A RHP 2021 45
6 Sean Hjelle 22.0 A RHP 2021 40+
7 Melvin Adon 24.9 AA RHP 2020 40+
8 Shaun Anderson 24.5 MLB RHP 2019 40+
9 Logan Webb 22.5 AA RHP 2021 40+
10 Patrick Hilson 18.7 R CF 2024 40+
11 Camilo Doval 21.9 A+ RHP 2021 40+
12 Seth Corry 20.5 A LHP 2023 40
13 Tyler Beede 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
14 Luis Toribio 18.6 R 3B 2024 40
15 Mike Gerber 26.9 MLB RF 2019 40
16 Jairo Pomares 18.8 R CF 2023 40
17 Ray Black 28.9 MLB RHP 2019 40
18 Ricardo Genoves 20.0 A- C 2022 40
19 Blake Rivera 21.4 A RHP 2023 40
20 Jake Wong 22.7 A RHP 2022 40
21 Chris Shaw 25.6 MLB 1B 2019 40
22 Jalen Miller 22.4 AA 2B 2020 40
23 Jacob Gonzalez 20.9 A 3B 2023 35+
24 Abiatal Avelino 24.3 MLB 2B 2020 35+
25 George Bell 21.0 R OF 2022 35+
26 Jandel Gustave 26.6 MLB RHP 2019 35+
27 Raffi Vizcaino 23.5 AA RHP 2020 35+
28 Sam Wolff 28.1 AAA RHP 2019 35+
29 Jose Marte 22.9 A+ RHP 2020 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Georgia Tech (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 45/55 40/30 55/60 55/55

Bart was a solid mid-tier prep prospect in the Atlanta suburbs who a couple of clubs really liked, but they ultimately couldn’t meet his price, pushing him to Georgia Tech. He made the leap between his sophomore and junior years, growing into his athleticism and developing plus raw power along with above average defensive tools and arm strength. The defensive tools are especially rare for a catcher of Bart’s size, as it’s much easier for a more compact-framed player to excel behind the plate. Bart has the rare ability to slow the game down defensively and scouts rave about his makeup, game calling, and game preparation.

At the plate, Bart has big power and gets to it pretty often in games, particularly to his pull side, where he hit a majestic shot that was never found over the facade of the football complex in left field at Georgia Tech’s stadium. But while he is exceptional behind the plate, Bart doesn’t have the same ability to slow the game at it, with elevated strikeout rates in his draft year and just okay pitch selection. The bat speed is good and he doesn’t have trouble against velocity, and some scouts point to his solid pro debut as evidence that Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around and developed some bad habits in college. Since literally everything else you could want except for contact is already present, most assume that Bart will figure out a way to get to a 40 to 50 bat with above average game power and above average defense, even if it’s on the job in the big leagues in 2020. He broke his hand early in 2019 and will miss several weeks. He’s a strong Arizona Fall League possibility.

45+ FV Prospects

2. Heliot Ramos, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SFG)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/45 55/60 30/55 60/55 45/50 60/60

After he looked like a newly-drafted force of nature during the summer of 2017, Ramos’ physical tools actually regressed last year. The bat speed and quality of contact both dipped, and Ramos was noticeably out-shined by the other (mostly older) Futures Game participants during batting practice. Ramos developed some feel for opposite field contact during this span, something he retained as the power returned this spring. He’s hitting lasers to all fields now, adept at peppering the right center field gap.

Built like, and as fast as, a bowling ball SEC running back, Ramos is going to stay in center field for a while but most scouts think he’ll eventually move to a corner. That could be a problem if such a move occurs sooner than anticipated, as Ramos has had whiff/discipline issues in the past, though they’ve been much more palatable this year. He has Mitch Haniger/Randal Grichuk-ish tools. Staying in center will be important, as will retaining some of this new plate discipline. If both happen, Ramos is going to be a highly entertaining star.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/70 20/60 50/50 40/50 50/55

Luciano’s broad, square, muscular shoulders look like they belong to a D1 high school football prospect. He has one of the better frames of all the 17-year-old hitters in pro ball, and plenty of room to add power to a body that already produces a lot of it. Luciano has explosive hands and a natural uppercut swing. He hits many more balls out during BP than is typical for a hitter this age, and has taken his peers deep in games, too.

Luciano’s feet and actions are workable on the infield but he struggles with throwing velocity and accuracy when he’s forced to throw from a lower arm slot, as shortstops often are. If he can’t correct that, he’ll need to move to the outfield. If he can, this is a shortstop with 80 bat speed. Luciano is a potential superstar. Much of his profile (the plate discipline, ultimate defensive home) is still not in focus, but this young man has rare physical talent.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 60/65 30/60 55/50 40/50 60/60

This system has three teenagers with awesome bat speed, and Canario is one. Some of his batting practice sessions during the Giants’ new January instructional camp were even up there with Joey Bart’s. But much of Canario’s game is unkempt. He has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit, and his front side often leaks, which impacts his ability to spoil breaking stuff away from him. His lower half got thicker and stronger during the offseason, making it more likely that he ends up in right field rather than center. But this is a potential middle-of-the-order hitter because of the raw power; the swing has natural loft, and the early-career plate discipline data is strong. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves, but of course, this type of prospect often fails to fully actualize.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 45/50 35/50 92-96 / 98

The Giants proactively sent Santos, who was acquired from Boston as part of the Eduardo Nunez deal, to the Northwest League as an 18-year-old because his stuff was simply too powerful for AZL youngsters. He was 93-96 with sinker and cutter variation last year, and his breaking ball was often plus. He threw more strikes in affiliated ball than he did during the spring in extended, then arrived to 2019 camp with a better changeup. A strong breakout candidate, Santos had a shoulder strain in late-April. There’s probably no more velo coming because Santos is a mature-bodied guy, but he already throws hard so that doesn’t really matter. He has mid-rotation upside as long as the command improvement holds and this shoulder issue doesn’t become chronic.

40+ FV Prospects

6. Sean Hjelle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Kentucky (SFG)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 11″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 96

Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and is remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating the impact of Hjelle’s size on hitters’ discomfort.

7. Melvin Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
80/80 60/60 40/40 30/40 96-100 / 102

A raw, arm strength goon for what seemed like forever, Adon found slider feel late last season and had dominant stretches where he looked like a potential closer. He has carried that into the early part of this season, more frequently dotting his slider just off the plate to his glove side and even getting it over for strikes when he’s behind in counts. Adon still just kind of chucks his fastball and hopes it arrives near the plate, but he’s going to get away with mistakes in the zone because of the velocity. Likely to have harrowing bouts of wildness, Adon has high-leverage/closer stuff and could be one of the better relief pitchers in baseball at some point, though he may already be in his late-20s once things really click.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Florida (BOS)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/50 45/50 55/55 40/45 91-95 / 96

Anderson has an unusually deep repertoire for a pitcher who scouts overwhelmingly project into the bullpen. He has a two seamer, a four seamer that has natural cut to it when he locates to his glove side, a slider (his best pitch dating back to college), and a changeup which has been the focal point of development since Anderson entered pro ball. A casualty of Florida’s ability to recruit and develop pitching, Anderson was a college reliever who would’ve been starting on just about every other college team in the country, so there’s a reason he lacks some of the finer attributes scout want to see from a starter. He could be an inefficient No. 4/5, but he might be really good in a multi-inning relief role where he throws 80 or more innings.

9. Logan Webb, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Rocklin HS (CA) (SFG)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 91-94 / 95

Webb spent most of 2016 on the shelf due to Tommy John, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a well-manicured relief role. Then he broke out in 2018, as he retained big stuff through a move back to the rotation. He was holding a tailing 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly, bat-missing breaking ball. Unrefined fastball control led to a lot of bullpen projection, but Webb hadn’t pitched very much because of injury, so it seemed possible that it might yet improve.

Early in 2019, Webb’s stuff was down a bit, more 91-94 and touching 95, before he got popped for PEDs and was suspended for 80 games. He’s missed about two years of development due to the TJ and this suspension and developmentally is more like a junior college arm than an advanced Double-A prospect. He has Top 100 stuff (assuming the 2018 heater comes back after this suspension) and if he can somehow refine fastball command and the changeup (or a third pitch of some kind), he could be a No. 4 starter. We don’t know how the PEDs, which Webb denies knowledge of using, may have impacted his stuff. He seems like a logical Fall League candidate.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Nettleton HS (AR) (SFG)
Age 18.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/35 50/55 20/45 70/70 45/55 70/70

Of all the players we’ve written up on the team reports (there are about 1,000 on The Board and well over that if you count the Others of Note section of the lists) the gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the biggest. He has scintillating physical ability. Speed, arm strength, barrel quickness, burgeoning power, hit-thieving defensive ability in center field. But he is raw as steak tartare and often takes hapless, juvenile swings that demonstrate an alarming lack of baseball feel, as evidenced by his 67 strikeouts in 166 2018 at-bats.

Likely a long term project who will move through the minors with this exciting young contingent of talent from Latin America, Hilson’s chances of even making the big leagues are probably in the 20-30% range, and that may be optimistic. But on the scouting card, the tools read like David Dahl’s or Starling Marte’s, so there’s a chance for a star turn here, as well. It will likely take a long time and there will likely be developmental bumps in the road, but Hilson has monster, long-term potential and would be a peacock feather in the cap of Giants player dev if he can realize it.

11. Camilo Doval, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 60/70 20/40 89-98 / 100

This is one of the weirder pitchers in all of the minors. At times, Doval will sit in the upper-90s with cutting action; at others, he’s living in the low-90s with no movement. Scouts think the cause is that he doesn’t grip the baseball in a consistent manner. Doval also has a delivery totally unique to him. It’s a long, swooping, side-winding look that creates cut/rise on the ball. He also throws a hard, horizontal slider.

The Trackman readout for Doval is shocking. His primary fastball/cutter spins in at about 2700 rpm, which is incredible considering how hard he throws. He also generates nearly seven feet of extension, and the effective velocity of his fastball is about 2 mph harder than it’s actual velo.

He has outings where he walks everyone and gives up a bunch of runs before he accrues an out, and he has outings where he’s untouchable for several innings. It’d be somewhat terrifying to acquire Doval if the outcome of a trade for him dictated one’s job security, but his stuff is bewitching and we think he has a chance to be an elite bullpen weapon if he ever figures things out.

40 FV Prospects

12. Seth Corry, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Lone Peak HS (UT) (SFG)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup got much better throughout last season, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve does. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control, so there’s significant relief risk here. But Corry’s pitch mix is more complete than most of the other arms in this system and he’s the youngest non-Santos arm on the main section of this list, so you could argue he belongs up near Hjelle if you think he ends up starting. Realistically he’s a No. 4/5 or a three-pitch relief piece.

13. Tyler Beede, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Vanderbilt (SFG)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 55/55 40/40 91-95 / 98

It appears that Beede has ditched the cutter/slider thing bestowed upon him for a time and is, as he was in college, a fastball/curveball/changeup guy again. His velocity also seems to have been reborn. He’s once again lighting up radar guns with a mid-90s heater that has touched 98. His changeup has power sinking movement and should miss bats when Beede locates it competitively, but he’s more consistently able to do that with his curveball. Fastball control likely keeps Beede in the bullpen even though he did have stretches this spring where he looked like a mid-rotation starter. He’s 26, but looks like a strong three-pitch reliever. Maybe there’s a chance for high-leverage or multi-inning work here.

14. Luis Toribio, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 25/55 40/30 40/45 55/55

Built at age 18 like Aramis Ramirez was in his prime, it’s likely that Toribio’s promising pro debut was at least somewhat a product of physical maturity. He has above-average raw power already and generates it with a comfortable, understated swing. He’s shown feel for contact in games. He’s too pull-heavy at times, or at least tries to pull pitches he shouldn’t, ones he should just take. So there’s power, early indicators that the contact skills will be fine, and a chance to stay at third. The size/frame means there’s risk Toribio ends up at first base if he gets bigger, and also probably means we shouldn’t expect much of an increase in raw power. He has a chance to be an everyday third baseman, and lots of other viable outs if he can’t get there, including a corner infield platoon of some kind and a low-end first baseman. Or maybe more power comes, and he’s a 50 at first.

15. Mike Gerber, RF
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Creighton (DET)
Age 26.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 50/55 50/50 55/55 50/50

Boxed out of a surprisingly crowded corner outfield situation in Detroit, Gerber should get an opportunity to become a lefty-hitting platoon corner outfielder with power. He has at least above-average raw and has adjusted his swing to better ensure consistent lift. He’s going to strike out a lot, but he mashes right-handed pitching and plays a very good corner outfield, so he might play against lefties, too, and just hit toward the bottom of the order on those days. He’s older, but is a clear fit in a limited but necessary role.

16. Jairo Pomares, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (SFG)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/45 20/35 55/50 45/50 45/45

The Giants signed Pomares for just shy of $1 million during the 2018 July 2 period. He’s already almost 19 and is, as one can probably guess, a little more advanced and a little less projectable than most other recent J2 signees. Pomares is a center field prospect with feel to hit. His swing is geared for all-fields contact and while he has above-average bat speed, it’s unlikely that he hits for power without a swing adjustment. He looked a little thicker and stronger than anticipated during San Francisco’s January instructs and early in the spring, so there may be less certainty that he stays in center than there was when Pomares was in Cuba. He looks more like a fourth outfield prospect than a potential regular right now, but Cuban players often have long stretches away from baseball and training, so what we’ve seen so far in Arizona might just be rust.

17. Ray Black, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2011 from Pittsburgh (SFG)
Age 28.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
80/80 55/55 35/35 96-99 / 102

Black is the oldest player on The Board and he’s only here, despite a career rife with injury and inconsistency, because his stuff is so good. He’s among the hardest throwers in professional baseball and also one of the best at spinning the baseball. He is wild and the quality of his secondary stuff is inconsistent, but at times he looks unhittable. He struck out 33 in 23 big league innings last year, but he’s currently on the IL with a forearm strain. He could one day pitch his way into high-leverage innings as long as he has this kind of stuff, which he has maintained despite the many maladies.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (SFG)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/45 20/20 45/50 50/50

Built like a one of the moai sculptures on Easter Island, Genoves faces size-based questions about his ability to catch long term. But he has a plus arm, he’s procedurally advanced for a 20-year-old, and he has the leadership qualities and intangibles that have an outsized impact at catcher. He also has plus power, enough to put balls out to right center, though Genoves’ current approach to contact doesn’t often enable it. He pulls just about everything.

Genoves’ future is heavily dependent on him staying behind the plate and ideally, he’d catch more than just 33 games (last year’s total at an affiliate, not including extended) throughout the course of this year, and show that the workload doesn’t detract from his bat or agility. The power gives him a shot to be a regular, though a backup role is probably more likely.

19. Blake Rivera, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Wallace State CC (SFG)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 55/55 40/45 93-97 / 98

The Giants drafted Rivera after his 2017 freshman season, but he went back to school, raised his stock, and was the first JUCO arm off the board the following year. He has power stuff — 93-96 with cut action at times, and a plus curveball — but is wild and may be a reliever, though probably a very good one.

20. Jake Wong, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Grand Canyon (SFG)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 40/45 40/50 92-95 / 96

Wong was holding 93-96 with sink deep into games as a junior, he throws strikes, and he occasionally snaps off a good curveball. Changeup development and refined command are areas of need, and they will likely dictate Wong’s ceiling, which is probably that of a No. 4/5 starter who induces weak contact rather than strikeouts.

21. Chris Shaw, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Boston College (SFG)
Age 25.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/55 70/70 40/40 40/40 55/55

Shaw is one of many whiff-heavy corner bats with huge power who floats around the upper levels of the minors, putting up big power numbers while struggling to find a big league role if their parent club has someone at 1B/DH. The Giants have tried Shaw in the outfield but scouts don’t think he’s playable out there. Shaw has the advantage of hitting left-handed, but unless the Giants make a concerted effort to give him reps soon (they demoted him to Double-A to start 2019, so not a great sign) he’ll probably bounce around on waivers until a team with 40-man space — and the time to see whether or not Shaw can hit big league pitching — gives him a chance. Sometimes this is how clubs fall into Jesus Aguilar and Christian Walker, but it’s also the fate of many a Quad-A hitter.

22. Jalen Miller, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Riverwood HS (GA) (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 50/50 40/45 55/55 45/50 40/40

Miller’s lack of arm strength really boxes him in at second base, which means he has to hit enough to be a regular there because defensive versatility, and therefore a viable utility role, isn’t part of his profile. Much of the pressure will be on the bat to ball skills as Miller is a compact guy with average bat speed. He probably needs to be a 60 bat or better to play every day, which is feasible considering that his attributes, dating back to high school, are lead by a short swing and barrel control. He’s off to a good start in 2019, walking nearly as much as he has struck out.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Chaparral HS (AZ) (SFG)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/70 30/55 45/40 40/40 55/55

Though he looked somewhat better defensively during January workouts, Gonzalez still projects over to first base for all the scouts we’ve spoken with, and his inability to hit breaking stuff makes that pretty scary. He’s a hard worker with a frame built for longevity and he has arguably the best raw power in this system. His future looks much like Shaw’s, but Jacob hasn’t had the in-game power output yet.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 24.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 50/50 30/30 55/55 50/50 60/60

Last year, Avelino shuttled back and forth between Double-A (which he crushed) and Triple-A (which he did not) while with the Yankees, then was sent to San Francisco at the end of August as part of the McCutchen trade. He has rare power for a viable defensive shortstop but hits the ball on the ground so much that it’s highly unlikely he does much in-game damage with the bat unless his swing is overhauled. And while solid at short, Avelino’s not so good that you’d live with zero offense and play him everyday. He’ll likely be a glove-first utility guy, but he hasn’t played much second or third base yet and he’s already 24.

25. George Bell, OF
Drafted: 13th Round, 2018 from Connors JC (OK) (SFG)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Former MVP George Bell has two sons also named George Bell in pro ball — this one and George Bryner Bell, who is with Oakland. This Bell is a body/power/speed junior college sleeper who has some plate discipline and bat control issues. He has a shot to break out in the Northwest League this summer and merit a promotion to Low-A for the stretch run. August will be a key time to evaluate him if that’s the case.

26. Jandel Gustave, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2010 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 40/40 96-98 / 99

We typically slot relievers in their mid or late-20s in the honorable mention section of lists, especially if they’ve had injury issues. But the four you’re about to read about all have premium stuff and, at least at times, look capable of handling late-inning duty. Arm injuries have limited Gustave to 20 total innings since 2016, but his fastball was back into the upper-90s this spring. His slider is closer to average right now, which may mean he maxes out in a lower-leverage role.

27. Raffi Vizcaino, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/45 50/55 50/55 40/40 91-95 / 98

Vizcaino has been hurt for long stretches during the last few years and was moved to the bullpen this spring. He’ll touch 98 but sit mostly 91-95, and he has an above-average changeup, as well as two lesser breaking balls.

28. Sam Wolff, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2013 from New Mexico (TEX)
Age 28.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 204 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 55/55 40/40 40/40 92-95 / 96

Wolff was part of the Matt Moore trade and he’s spent time in Double-A every year since 2016. He has standard 40 FV, middle relief stuff, but he’s 28 and has a long injury history.

29. Jose Marte, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 50/55 35/40 90-96 / 97

Marte has a four-pitch mix and generates plus-plus extension, which makes his mid-90s fastball play up. We have his 2018 breaking ball spin rate on The Board because this year’s are way, way down, likely due to injury.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Power Bats
Diego Rincones, OF
Zach Green, 3B/1B
Sandro Fabian, OF
Jacob Heyward, OF
Kwan Adkins, OF

Rincones, 19, is a plump corner outfielder with quick, strong hands. He’s posted two consecutive years of strong offensive statistics (AZL and NWL) and has plus raw power, but he’s a corner-only guy with a high-maintenance build, so he’ll need to keep doing that. Green was a minor league free agent who had an average exit velo of about 95 mph through this season’s first month. He has plus-plus power and barely hits the ball on the ground (25% GB%). Fabian looked like a potential contact/power corner outfielder but his approach is just too aggressive and he’s posted sub-.300 OBPs for two years. Heyward, 23, is a bit older than most prospects at Double-A but he has plus raw power and athleticism. He needs to keep walking a lot to balance the strikeouts. Adkins was a two-sport athlete at Northwestern State (he played wide receiver as a junior) who didn’t have statistical success in college, but has so far flashed all-fields power against younger pro pitching.

Relief Potential
Sam Coonrod, RHP
Garrett Williams, LHP
Franklin Van Gurp, RHP
Kervin Castro, RHP

Coonrod touches 99 and has a pretty good cutter and curveball. Williams is a low-90s lefty with a plus curveball but he’s quite wild. Van Gurp could be a traditional sinker/slider reliever if he develops above-average command. Castro is a projectionless 20-year-old who throws hard (93-96 this spring) with flat, up-in-the-zone plane that’s suited for missing bats. His secondaries are raw, but he missed most of the last two years with injury.

Younger Sleepers
Ismael Munguia, OF
Ghordy Santos, INF
Andrew Caraballo, INF

Izzy Munguia is a tiny corner outfield prospect with great feel to hit. His power is limited. He’ll likely need to be a 7 bat to profile. Santos and Caraballo are each built like Jorge Polanco. Santos has plus bat speed and some low-ball ability. Caraballo has plus infield hands and actions and Eric thought he saw him breaking in a catcher’s mitt on the backfields.

System Overview

This rebuild could take a while. There’s probably a dominant, homegrown bullpen in this system but most of the pitchers who’ll be part of it are already in their mid or late-20s. There’s a huge timeline gap between that group and the more exciting, potentially impactful group of teenagers (mostly bats) who are, by and large, currently in rookie and A-ball. Parlaying current big leaguers and upper-level prospects into long-term assets will be an important part of accelerating a return to competitiveness. That means nailing a seemingly imminent Madison Bumgarner trade. Scouts from opposing clubs are already deviating from their normal coverage to get extra looks at the left-hander so their teams have as much info as possible as we approach June and July.

Now that the org is under new leadership, the way talent is acquired and developed will change, but we’re not yet sure exactly how. It seems as if early priorities involve throwing fringe roster guys like Connor Joe, Aaron Altherr, and Breyvic Valera at the wall to see who sticks. Expect the Giants to try to find diamonds in the rough on the waiver wire who they’ll likely look to flip for long-term help rather than keep around.

We’ve seen Giants personnel at amateur games with the same model camera we’re using to take high-speed video, so they’re proactively entering that space. It’s likely their new Ops leader, Farhan Zaidi, will bring Dodger player dev concepts with him to San Francisco because the Dodgers have been so good at improving their players, but some of LA’s more prominent scouting tendencies (injured arms, toolsy college hitters with contact red flags, talent from Mexico) will be harder to replicate effectively because the Dodgers still exist in those spaces, too.


Top 55 Prospects: San Diego Padres

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Diego Padres. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Padres Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Fernando Tatis Jr. 20.4 MLB SS 2019 65
2 MacKenzie Gore 20.2 A+ LHP 2021 55
3 Luis Urias 21.9 MLB 2B 2019 55
4 Chris Paddack 23.3 MLB RHP 2019 55
5 Luis Patino 19.5 A+ RHP 2023 55
6 Francisco Mejia 23.5 MLB C 2019 50
7 Adrian Morejon 20.2 AA LHP 2020 50
8 Logan Allen 22.0 AAA LHP 2020 50
9 Anderson Espinoza 21.2 A RHP 2020 50
10 Tirso Ornelas 19.2 A+ LF 2021 50
11 Josh Naylor 21.9 AAA 1B 2020 50
12 Hudson Potts 20.5 AA 3B 2020 50
13 Michel Baez 23.3 AA RHP 2020 50
14 Xavier Edwards 19.8 A 2B 2022 45+
15 Tucupita Marcano 19.6 A SS 2022 45+
16 Jeisson Rosario 19.5 A+ CF 2022 45+
17 Ryan Weathers 19.5 R LHP 2021 45+
18 Esteury Ruiz 20.2 A+ 2B 2022 45
19 Reggie Lawson 21.8 AA RHP 2021 45
20 Austin Allen 25.3 AAA C 2019 45
21 Gabriel Arias 19.2 A+ SS 2021 40+
22 Luis Campusano 20.6 A+ C 2022 40+
23 Nick Margevicius 22.9 MLB LHP 2019 40+
24 Andres Munoz 20.3 AA RHP 2020 40+
25 Mason Thompson 21.2 A+ RHP 2022 40+
26 Buddy Reed 24.0 AA CF 2019 40
27 Cal Quantrill 24.2 MLB RHP 2019 40
28 Pedro Avila 22.3 MLB RHP 2021 40
29 Ty France 24.8 MLB 3B 2019 40
30 Blake Hunt 20.5 A C 2022 40
31 Trey Wingenter 25.1 MLB RHP 2019 40
32 Ignacio Feliz 19.5 R RHP 2023 40
33 Esteban Quiroz 27.2 AAA 2B 2020 40
34 Javier Guerra 23.6 MLB RHP 2019 40
35 Grant Little 22.1 A 2B/OF 2020 40
36 Owen Miller 22.5 AA SS 2021 40
37 Edward Olivares 23.2 AA CF 2021 40
38 Eguy Rosario 19.7 AA 2B 2021 40
39 Michell Miliano 19.4 R RHP 2023 40
40 Gerardo Reyes 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
41 Jorge Ona 22.4 AA LF 2019 40
42 David Bednar 24.6 AA RHP 2019 40
43 Brad Zunica 23.6 AA 1B 2022 40
44 Ronald Bolanos 22.7 A+ RHP 2021 40
45 Dylan Coleman 22.6 A+ RHP 2022 40
46 Charlis Aquino 17.5 R SS 2024 35+
47 Agustin Ruiz 19.6 A RF 2022 35+
48 Jason Vosler 25.7 AAA 3B 2019 35+
49 Sean Guilbe 19.4 R SS 2023 35+
50 Jordy Barley 19.4 R SS 2023 35+
51 Dwanya Williams-Sutton 21.8 A RF 2023 35+
52 Jesus Gonzalez 17.9 R LHP 2024 35+
53 Jacob Nix 23.3 MLB RHP 2019 35+
54 Jawuan Harris 22.5 A CF 2022 35+
55 Cristian Heredia 18.1 R CF 2023 35+
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65 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 60/70 50/60 65/55 50/55 60/60

Though his numbers were mostly the same as they were during a very impressive 2018 at Double-A San Antonio (.286/.355/.507, 16 HR, 16 SB), Tatis appeared to come of age during the offseason in the higher-stakes environment of the Dominican Winter League. Except for the sliver of our population who are both prospect hounds and savvy internet streamers, Tatis’ LIDOM brilliance was mostly obscured from American eyes, and may one day exist only as an oral history, the way John Lucas and Bernard King’s D.C. summer league cameos do for basketball fans today.

Nevertheless, major league scouts and teams are well-aware of Tatis’ all-world physical gifts, but the Padres knew first. Scouted and snatched away from the Camelback Ranch backfields by A.J. Preller himself, Tatis had barely worn a White Sox uniform before he was flipped to San Diego for James Shields during 2016 Extended spring. He wasn’t a highly-regarded amateur prospect when he signed the year before the trade, but he got better very quickly and essentially hasn’t stopped. He has Carlos Correa‘s frame, but is more agile and acrobatic a defender than Correa, and while there’s some risk that Tatis will eventually fill out beyond viability at shortstop, it probably won’t be for a while, and in the interim he’s going to be quite good there. He also has power that is rare for the big leagues generally, let alone for a middle infielder, and he has gotten to it in games thus far despite some issues with strikeouts. There’s a sizable gap between the low-end of Tatis’ possible outcomes (he moves to third quickly and always has contact issues) and the high end (he becomes a plus glove at short and has an offensive trajectory like George Springer‘s, whose contact issues suddenly went away) but right tail outcomes like this barely exist across baseball.

Strikeout-prone prospects often require some time to adjust and can take a little bit to perform, but we like Tatis’ chances to become a superstar, the crest of the Padres’ wave of young talent and a cornerstone of a burgeoning franchise.

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Whiteville HS (NC) (SDP)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 50/55 50/60 45/60 91-95 / 97

Blisters and fingernail issues were a minor problem during Gore’s 2017 pro debut, and shelved him three separate times throughout 2018. His stuff was intact when he pitched, his fastball resting mostly in the 92-94 range and topping around 96 during most of his starts, though he has peaked at 98.

He is mechanically non-traditional, something Gore is able to maintain because he’s such a great athlete. As his front leg kicks up before he pedals toward the plate, so too does his glove and pitching hand, way up over his head, as if his mitt and knee are connected by an invisible wire. When Gore comes home, he drifts toward the first base side of the mound a bit, creating a unique angle on his pitches.

And those pitches are good. Though he doesn’t have great natural ability to spin the ball, Gore’s over-the-top arm slot enables him to get tumble on his curveball anyway, he has very advanced changeup feel, and his slider is firm. He’ll be able to locate what he wants, where he wants for as long as he retains his top-of-the-scale athleticism. He may be on a bit of an innings count this year just because he only threw 66 innings in 2018, but otherwise he’s quite advanced and could move through the minors fairly quickly.

3. Luis Urias, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Mexico (SDP)
Age 21.9 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/65 20/35 40/45 50/50 50/55 50/50

Urias walked more than he struck out in every year of his pro career until 2018, when his K% rose all the way to 20%. Though he has always utilized a long, slow leg kick, Urias used to cut it down when he got into two-strike counts, something he didn’t do last year, probably in effort to hit for more power. He still managed to slash .296/.398/.447 as a 21-year-old in the hitter-friendly PCL and reached San Diego in September. Even with minor tweaks, Urias isn’t likely to hit for anything more than doubles power, but he should continue to be a plus bat who adds value on the bases and in the field à la Joey Wendle or Cesar Hernandez. Ian Kinsler‘s presence combined with Urias early-season struggles caused the Padres to demote Urias to Triple-A. He’s raking there and is still just the age of a college junior, so his initial numbers in the majors likely aren’t anything to worry about.

Drafted: 8th Round, 2015 from Cedar Park HS (TX) (MIA)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 60/70 50/60 92-96 / 98

Amateur scouting heuristics would not have expected Paddack be here. He was a high school draftee who was 19 and a half on draft day (draft models like young players), and had no feel for spin (something modern pitching research has determined isn’t a malleable trait). The Marlins signed him for $400,000 as an eighth rounder and traded him to San Diego just over a year later in exchange for Fernando Rodney. The six starts Paddack made leading up to the deal were incredible. He had a 48:2 strikeout to walk ratio during that span, and he has continued to miss bats while filling up the strike zone since the Padres acquired him. He’d probably have been in the majors last year had Tommy John surgery not robbed him of more than a year of development (Paddack blew out in his third start as a Padres prospect).

His stuff was fine when he returned last year, with his fastball up to 95 in his first extended spring training start back from injury, and he topped out at 98 during the year. He’ll likely never have a great breaking ball, but as long as he locates it properly against righties, it will be enough. If there’s an 80 changeup in the minors, this is probably it, and plenty of starters with mediocre breaking balls have survived with heavy changeup use. Paddack’s fastball plays in the strike zone and he can make it sink if he wants to work down, so he shouldn’t run into any game theory-related issues due to a lack of repertoire depth because his stuff is just too good to hit when he locates it, even if you properly guess what’s coming. It’s rare for true aces to have such limited repertoires, and we think it’s more likely that Paddack develops into a 3-4 WAR starter than a demigod, the way his numbers might indicate.

5. Luis Patino, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Colombia (SDP)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/60 40/55 40/50 93-97 / 99

Not long ago, Patiño was an undersized Colombian shortstop who would pitch once in a while. The Padres liked his athleticism enough to sign him and move him to the mound full-time. He’s added a full 10 ticks to his fastball over the last two and a half years, and now is not only one of the best on-mound athletes in the minors, but a hard worker and team leader with infectious charisma. Patiño’s velocity came as he got in the weight room and added about 25 pounds. He was so dominant during his first few pro starts in the DSL that the Padres quickly pushed him stateside for the remainder of 2017, then to the Midwest League at age 18 the following year.

Not only does Patiño have premium arm strength, he has natural feel for spin, and is a curious learner who quickly actualizes instruction on the mound. He has already begun to vary the cadence of his delivery to mess with hitters’ timing, and has mapped aspects of MacKenzie Gore’s delivery onto his own, just to see if it works for him. He’s still a little too confident with his breaking ball in the zone, but it’s hard not to expect an athlete with work habits like these (Patiño has already learned and is fluent in English) to get better at everything. You can go nuts projecting on his secondaries and command the same way scouts did with Hunter Greene when he was in high school, and Patiño’s breaking stuff is further along than Greene’s was at the same age. He likely won’t grow into more velo because the frame for that isn’t here, but he’s already got plenty of heat. Conservatively, Patiño has mid-rotation upside, but how the changeup and breaking ball command develop matter because that’s where there’s room for significant growth.

50 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 55/55 40/50 50/45 40/45 80/80

Acquired from Cleveland for Brad Hand, Mejia is one of the more entertaining hitters to watch in the minors, but he has a few flaws that need to be corrected for him to reach his substantial ceiling, and possibly for him to profile at all. He has a very aggressive approach and a funky, high-effort swing from both sides of the plate, and they’re only sustainable because Mejia has elite hand-eye coordination and bat control. His swing-happy approach could limit his on-base ability quite a bit, and possibly his power output, too, which would be less of a problem if Mejia could definitely stick as a catcher; he has an elite arm but is a below-average receiver currently.

Before they traded him, Cleveland tried Mejia at third base and the outfield corners. San Diego seems inclined to just let him catch, but if Wil Myers’ defensive movement is any indication, they’re open to trying new things. There are probably certain types of pitchers that Mejia can catch without much issue, and it seems logical to pair him and Austin Hedges in a way that hides Mejia’s issues while he can work on them and still gets reps. If he does have to move to, say, right field, the lack of plate discipline becomes an issue because the offensive bar out there is much higher. The scouting report reads much like Jorge Alfaro’s, except Mejia is a switch-hitter with better natural bat control.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (SDP)
Age 20.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 50/60 40/55 93-96 / 97

Morejon made three trips to the Injured List in 2018 and he’s had a few other issues that have caused the Padres to throttle down his activity during the spring and fall. He has plus velocity, but loses a tick of perceived velo due to lack of extension, and his arm angle and spin direction are more conducive of sink/run that bat-missing rise. He will flash a plus changeup, and that pitch will likely be his best at maturity. The breaking stuff is closer to average. He was mechanically inconsistent this spring and has once again been placed on the IL with shoulder/back issues. There are days when Morejon’s stuff and style of pitching resembles Jesus Luzardo’s, but the injury stuff might force a bullpen move.

8. Logan Allen, LHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2015 from IMG Academy HS (FL) (BOS)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 55/60 40/50 90-93 / 94

Allen is a better athlete than one would likely surmise if they were just looking at him in the uniform. His fast-paced delivery is hard for hitters with a big leg kick to properly time the first time through the order, and once they’ve gotten a feel for his fastball, Allen pulls the string on his sinking, plus changeup. His strike-throwing has improved from slightly below-average to slightly above over the last 18 months or so, and Allen now comfortably projects as a No. 4 starter.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 50/60 40/45 93-96 / 97

Acquired from Boston for Drew Pomeranz in July 2016, Espinoza has only thrown 32 innings of affiliated ball for the Padres since the deal. Espinoza was 94-97 and flashed a plus changeup and curveball during his final spring training start of 2017. Between that outing and his first regular season start for Hi-A Lake Elsinore, he felt discomfort in his elbow and was shut down. After several weeks of rest and rehab, it was decided that he needed Tommy John surgery, which he had early in August. The timing wasn’t great, and Espinoza missed all of 2018 working back from surgery, then re-tore his elbow during the spring of 2019 and needed a second TJ. He has been spotted in a cast on the Peoria backfields. Espinoza has front-end stuff but even if it returns, he’ll have missed three years of reps that he desperately needed to polish his below-average control, increasing the likelihood that he’s a reliever or backend starter.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Mexico (SDP)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 55/60 30/55 50/45 45/55 50/50

Ornelas was the most polished of the teenage prospects the Padres pushed to the Midwest League last year, and while his raw numbers were only impressive if viewed with his age in mind, his peripherals (11% walk rate, 19% strikeout rate) were marvelous. Quite soft-bodied as an amateur, Ornelas has reshaped his physique and is now a svelte 6-foot-3 and an average runner underway, and it plays a little better than that on the bases because he is a max-effort player. Most amateur scouts had him projected to first base, but he now has a chance to not just stick in a corner outfield spot, but perhaps be above-average there.

Really what Ornelas is best at is hitting. He has terrific timing and feel for contact, as well as a growing idea of which pitches to attack to hit for power. His ground ball rate was down last year and while there’s still room for growth in this area, the fact that Ornelas has already shown movement here is a sign more will come. Unless the hit and power tools grow beyond what we expect, it’s unlikely that Ornelas becomes a star, but we consider him a strong bet to be an everyday big leaguer, and his makeup and polish make him an unusually high-probability bet in our estimation.

11. Josh Naylor, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from St. Joan of Arc HS (CAN) (MIA)
Age 21.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 250 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 70/70 45/60 20/20 40/45 55/55

Naylor stood out as an underclassman on the Canadian Junior national teams that travel to Florida and Arizona each spring and fall, and was also a mainstay on the showcase circuit. It’s because of a sterling performance in his draft spring facing professional pitchers in spring training stadiums that clubs became confident he had a 50 or better bat to go with his easy plus raw power; the Marlins surprised many by taking him in the middle of the first round. His speed, defense, position, and thick frame have always been below average, but luckily Naylor’s bat has carried him this far and it appears it will carry him to a big league career of some consequence.

Miami traded Naylor to San Diego in the controversial Colin Rea deal, soon after also trading Chris Paddack to the Padres in a separate transaction. Naylor was involved in a bizarre accidental stabbing with teammate Stone Garrett just before the trade. San Diego has Eric Hosmer in his way, so you’d need to see a trade or the universal DH for Naylor to have a path to playing with his left field defense grading well below average. The MLB free agent market isn’t valuing Naylor-type players highly, but his first three seasons would interest any club with an opening for him.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Southlake Carroll HS (TX) (SDP)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/55 30/50 50/45 45/55 55/55

Potts keeps trickling down the defensive spectrum — he was pretty good defensive shortstop in high school but is a bigger-bodied third baseman now, and may have to move to an outfield corner eventually — but with that weight has come substantial raw power, and he now has two consecutive 20-homer seasons on his resume. In the event that he does have to move off of third base, Potts’ lack of plate discipline makes his profile very risky, though he seemed to take a step forward in that regard last year. He turned 20 during his Arizona Fall League stint and should spend all year at Double-A. His low-end outcome is in the Juan Francisco/Matt Davidson realm, while a middle of the road projection is that of a big power/low on-base corner outfielder, a skillset Padres fans are familiar with because that’s what Hunter Renfroe is. But if Potts stays at third and continues to refine his approach, he could be an above-average everyday player.

13. Michel Baez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (SDP)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 8″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 55/65 40/50 92-95 / 97

After he shook off some initial rust in 2017, Baez’s stuff and strike-throwing quickly flourished, enabling him to post a 10:1 strikeout to walk ratio at Low-A Fort Wayne. His fastball was in the 94-97 range, and his changeup was consistently plus or better all summer. A back issue put Baez behind during 2018 spring training, and while the Padres sent him to Hi-A in late-April, his stuff and command were just not as good as they were the year before. Instead of 94-97, Baez’s fastball was more 92-95, and his walk rate tripled. We’re in wait-and-see mode with Baez now. He had a mid-rotation look in 2017, but fourth starter stuff and fringe command last year. After sitting 92-95 early in the spring, Baez was shut down with shoulder inflammation. In early May, he was again 93-95 with his trademark changeup.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from North Broward Prep HS (FL) (SDP)
Age 19.8 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 20/30 80/80 50/55 45/50

A staple on the travel ball circuit for several years, Edwards has a long track record of performance against high-level pitching and his elite speed makes it likely that he plays a premium defensive position in pro ball, and plays it well. He faces questions about his size, and power doesn’t project to be a real part of what he ends up doing. Instead, Edwards is a high-effort offensive catalyst who knifes at defenses with line drives and well-placed bunts. He is twitchy, strong, has great feel for the strike zone, he’s short to the ball and tough to strike out, and has feel for all-fields contact. He has a traditional leadoff hitter’s skillset from a tools/stylistic standpoint, but a modern leadoff man’s approach and on base ability. Capable of playing a passable shortstop, Edwards is most likely to end up as an above-average defender at second, and his elite speed could make him a valuable defender in center field if needed.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (SDP)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 30/40 20/30 60/60 45/50 55/55

DSL and AZL stats are almost meaningless but Marcano’s 60:25 walk-to-strikeout ratio in 2017 and ’18 combined is so exceptional that it almost certainly says something about his plate discipline. That notion is supported by in-person looks at Marcano, who not only has good feel for the strike zone, but also has the hand-eye coordination and bat control to spoil tough pitches, and barrel mistakes. He is very slight of build, so much so that there’s skepticism regarding his power projection that isn’t there for other players of similar age, skill, and level (like Brayan Rocchio with Cleveland), who have a better chance of developing pop.

Excellent at both middle infield spots, Marcano has a shot to be a plus glove at short or second at peak. Even without power, a defensive wizard with high-end feel for contact who runs well is at least a good utility guy. If some pop comes, even if it’s just a little, then there’s everyday upside here.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age 19.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 40/45 20/40 60/60 45/60 60/60

If your team of attractive thieves needs a grease man for The Big Heist, then consider Rosario, who is an acrobatic, top-of-the-scale athlete who has on-job robbery experience. A plus runner, Rosario’s speed and athleticism help hide some of the circuitous routes he takes to fly balls, and he has the physical talent to be a plus defender in center field as he refines those. He tracks pitches well, walks a lot, and has terrific bat control, which leads to low-lying, all-fields contact. He’s a potential leadoff hitter with a plus glove in center, a potential first-division regular. Some clubs think he’ll eventually hit for power, but that would require a drastically different approach/style of hitting than Rosario currently employs, and there are a host of other things to refine before the Padres tweak a thing Rosario currently does pretty well. He’ll be a 19-year-old at Hi-A all season, and could be a top 100 prospect by mid-summer.

17. Ryan Weathers, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Loretto HS (TN) (SDP)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / L FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 50/55 45/55 90-94 / 96

The Padres seemed to have the top tier of prep pitching in their mix at pick No. 7 during last year’s draft. Though Weathers wasn’t universally considered to be part of that contingent, it seemed San Diego thought he was. We believed the gap between pick seven and where Weathers would otherwise have been picked was sizable enough that San Diego might be able to cut a deal, but instead Weathers signed for slot, about $5.2 million. He is the son of former big league reliever David Weathers, and has been a known prospect of interest since his sophomore year of high school.

Though he’s not built like most prep prospects, Weathers is remarkably athletic and was a dynamite high school basketball player. His stuff waxed and waned during his senior spring, but when it was good, he had arguably the best present three-pitch mix, and pitch usage, in the 2018 prep pitching class. He’s a short-strider, so the fastball is going to play down a bit due to poor extension, but otherwise he projects as a mid-rotation arm due to the quality of his secondaries, and, potentially, a quick-moving one. After 24 strong innings at Low-A to start the year, Weathers was shut down with a dead arm.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/60 40/55 60/55 30/40 50/50

The Alfonso Soriano comps to Ruiz are actually quite apt. Like Soriano, Ruiz has pole-to-pole power and feel for striking the ball in the air to all fields, he is similarly built, and he shares some mechanical traits with Soriano, though not the signature, one-handed finish. He’s also not a good defensive infielder, and is so mistake-prone that there’s a real possibility that Ruiz eventually moves to the outfield. He runs well enough to give center field a go if that becomes the case, but such a move is probably premature until or unless Ruiz’s offensive performance forces a change so his glove can be ready when the bat is.

The Padres acquired Ruiz from Kansas City in a 2017 six-player swap (Strahm, Wood, Ruiz for Cahill, Maurer, Buchter) just 21 games into his stateside pro debut. Then they skipped him over advanced rookie ball and sent him to Low-A the following spring. The Midwest League is tough on hitters and Ruiz’s line was, in context, pretty good. His aggressive approach may start to be exploited at Hi-A, but once Ruiz gets his footing he could break out statistically.

19. Reggie Lawson, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Victor Valley HS (CA) (SDP)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 40/50 35/45 92-95 / 97

Some teams moved off of Lawson when he had some injury issues as a high school senior, but the Padres found themselves flush with pool money after taking underslot prospects late in the first round (Hudson Potts and Eric Lauer), which enabled them to give Lawson $1.9 million in the second round, $1 million above slot. He has yet to spend any time on the IL as a pro.

Lawson’s velocity has climbed and his breaking ball, which was in the 68-72 mph range in high school, now has more power to it and rests in the mid-70s. He found a better changeup in 2018, quelling most concerns about him eventually winding up in the bullpen. His delivery isn’t as fluid as it was in high school, but while Lawson doesn’t have pinpoint, touch-and-feel command, his fastball lives in the zone and he throws enough strikes to start. He’s enduring a walk uptick at Double-A early in 2019 but his rate of strikes (63%) is the same as last year, so the walk totals are probably going to regress to Lawson’s career mean. He projects as a No. 4/5 starter, or a valuable reliever if he’s pushed to the bullpen by the depth of talent on the rest of San Diego’s staff.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2015 from Florida Tech (SDP)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 65/65 50/60 30/30 40/40 45/45

Allen has faced questions about his long-term defensive home dating back to college, and those continued through last year after he struggled in front of pro scouts during the Arizona Fall League. The AFL is not a great place to evaluate catching, because guys are tired and forced to quickly learn an entirely new staff of pitchers, but independent of that qualifier, lots of teams simply don’t think Allen can play back there due a lack of arm strength and/or receiving ability. Others think Allen is serviceable, and would gladly give up what he lacks on defense for what he’d provide at the catching position on offense: huge power, rare for the position.

Allen elevates the ball with authority and has been doing so since college. He slugged .728 as a junior (while facing questions about competition quality in addition to the defensive stuff) and he has 50 or more extra base hits in each of the last two seasons. It’s All-Star offensive ability for a catcher, it’s just that most of the industry doesn’t like him at the position. Perhaps what San Diego has done with Francisco Mejia (let him catch pitchers he can handle) will serve as precedent for what they may try with Allen, whose issues are admittedly different than Mejia’s. They could let Allen catch pitchers who are adept at holding runners on their own, give him a start at first now and then, and let him take high-leverage at-bats off the bench against righties the rest of the time. That’s a valuable role player, one who’s arguably ready for prime time right now.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (SDP)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 55/60 30/45 55/50 50/55 60/60

Arias is a flashy defensive shortstop who has already grown into sizable power for a sinewy 19-year-old. His hands are very powerful, explosive, and work in a tight, lift-friendly loop much like Carter Kieboom’s, but Arias doesn’t track pitches well, and makes poor choices about what he’s swinging at. He needs to refine his approach so more of that power plays in games, because he’ll likely always have a bit of a whiff problem due to his swing being so geared for power. There’s big ceiling here because of the pop and defensive profile, but the approach might make him a frustrating and streaky Tim Anderson-type of player.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Cross Creek HS (GA) (SDP)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/60 20/50 50/40 40/50 60/60

Campusano was a bad-bodied, defense-first catcher on the summer showcase circuit, but then he completely remade his body for his senior spring. He showed above-average power, some bat control, and much improved agility behind the plate, leading to him going 39th overall in 2017. He didn’t catch much velocity in high school and struggled receiving pro arms at first. There’s still some work to be done on that end, but Campusano has gotten better on defense, he has plus raw power, plus arm strength, and some feel to hit. He’s a potential regular on tools, but the attrition rate of teenage catching prospects is pretty scary.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Rider (SDP)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/55 40/45 45/55 87-91 / 93

Margevicius got on the national scouting radar when he had a strong performance at Georgia early during his draft spring, during which he hit 95 mph. He was scouted the rest of the spring but often sat 88-91 and hit 93 mph, working with a solid average changeup as his out-pitch, and a fringy breaking ball that came and went with his arm speed, stuff befitting a seventh round selection.

Margevicius changed a bit in pro ball, switching from a curveball to slider, and making it his primary off-speed pitch. His performance, despite below average velocity, was excellent thereafter and he surprised many when he went from Hi-A to the big leagues to start 2019. He’s probably a back-end starter, a No. 4/5 at best, but the finished product came together much quicker than anyone expected and some of it happened with pitch development and adjustment, evidence Margevicius will be able to continue making relevant tweaks as it becomes pertinent.

24. Andres Munoz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Mexico (SDP)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
80/80 55/60 30/40 95-99 / 102

Muñoz’s arm action evokes Joel Zumaya, Billy Wagner, and Craig Kimbrel. His limb whips around at such speed and with such flexibility that it almost skips right past enthralling and strikes one as grotesque. But the heat that emanates from him right arm is among the best in the minors. He’ll routinely sit 97-99 and has touched as high as 103 (the slo-mo pitch in the linked video was 100 mph). It’s a blistering, elite pitch that had upper-level hitters taking flaccid, defeated swings this spring, and has helped Muñoz strike out two hitters per inning early on in 2019.

He has yet to harness the fastball and throw consistent strikes (he’s walking a batter per inning, too) and his breaking ball quality is also inconsistent. If both of those issues improve, Muñoz will be an elite relief option. If one of them does, he’s probably still a high-leverage arm, just one who makes you sweat after surrendering a couple of walks. If neither do, then Muñoz will go the way of some other recent fastball-only prospects like this, such as Thyago Vieira and Mauricio Cabrera.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Round Rock HS (TX) (SDP)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/50 40/55 50/60 40/50 92-95 / 97

Up to 94 as a high school underclassman, Thompson was tracking like a traditional first round Texas high school arm until he had Tommy John and missed all but one game during his senior year. He was a wild card on draft day, but ended up going in the third round, and signing for early second round money ($1.7 million). During his first pro summer, Thompson’s fastball velocity climbed from the 88-91 range up to the 92-94 area. Then shoulder and biceps issues plagued his first two full pro seasons, and his stuff was down in 2018.

This spring, he was throwing harder than ever, sitting 94-97 at times, and showing better breaking stuff than he had previously. He’s struggling to harness the new stuff, but he hasn’t really pitched all that much due to all those injuries, and that he has a chance for four above-average pitches gives him more upside than a lot of the closer, safer prospects on this list. He could have a breakout summer, or it could be very bumpy.

40 FV Prospects

26. Buddy Reed, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Florida (SDP)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 50/50 30/35 70/70 60/70 60/60

Reed was a lightly-scouted multi-sport high school athlete in Maryland who also played hockey before he arrived at the University of Florida. Soon after he stepped on campus, scouts saw and become enamored with the enormous athletic potential he had. He still hasn’t quite tapped into it, at least on offense. Reed has 70 speed and defensive ability in center field, along with a 60 arm and average raw power. As a 6-foot-4, 210 pound athletic specimen, he’ll probably play forever. There’s some bat control and feel for oppo gap contact here, but Reed’s approach and feel for hitting is lacking, holding back his everyday potential. Most scouts project him as a good fourth outfielder in the Jake Marisnick mold.

27. Cal Quantrill, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Stanford (SDP)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/45 45/50 55/60 40/50 91-94 / 96

Quantrill was an early 2016 draft 1-1 candidate (mid-90s, plus changeup) before he tore his UCL as a sophomore and missed his entire junior year to rehab. His velocity and feel for locating his fastball both regressed in 2018, but they seem to have rebounded this spring. Quantrill has been up to 96, sitting 93-94 early in starts before settling into the low-90s later. It’s a two-seamer, one that probably pairs best with his changeup, Quantrill’s best chance of missing bats. He now has two fringe breaking balls, which is a player dev miracle considering there was a stretch when it was unclear if Quantrill would ever have just one. He profiles as a sinker/changeup backend starter.

28. Pedro Avila, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (WAS)
Age 22.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/60 55/60 45/55 91-95 / 96

Avila’s 2017 campaign — 170 strikeouts, 33 walks, 129 innings — had us wondering if we were missing something and he was an obvious top-100 arm. He carved up the lower levels by making heavy use of two good secondary pitches, a curveball and changeup. He came back down to earth in 2018, struggling to locate his low-90s fastball in the zone. He sits 90-94, and will touch 96. The long-term role may ultimately be in the bullpen, especially since three-pitch relievers may become more necessary due to forthcoming rule changes. He’ll likely be up and down this year, making spot starts when needed.

29. Ty France, 3B
Drafted: 34th Round, 2015 from San Diego State (SDP)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 60/60 50/55 30/30 40/40 55/55

France was a contact-first hitter on a highly entertaining San Diego State team (Seby Zavala, Bubba Derby, Steven Pallares) but has found a way to get to more power in pro ball. Even if you think France is a capable third baseman (not all teams do, seeing him as first base-only), the Hosmer and Machado contracts almost certainly make France a burgeoning trade chip unless early-season trials at second base prove fruitful. He’s exactly the kind of hitter to whom the PCL is extra nice, but he’s hit at every level since college and, save for one season, has also hit for power, and his current SLG% (he was slugging .885 before San Diego gave him his first big league look in May) is more caricature than mirage. He could be a Kevin Kouzmanoff sequel.

30. Blake Hunt, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Mater Dei HS (CA) (SDP)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/55 20/45 40/30 45/55 55/55

SoCal always seems to have a sleeper catching prospect or two and Hunt, whose stock rose late in the spring, was the 2017 high school model. Most area scouts bought into his agility, hands, and arm enough to project him as a long-term catcher despite his size. He dealt with a shoulder issue throughout 2017 but arrived to camp in 2018 healthy, stronger, and with much more raw power than he had the year before.

Hunt’s swing remains somewhat unbalanced and he often dives in and loses posture that would enable him to pull the ball with power. His top hand doesn’t drive contact as much as it probably could. But he’s athletic, is going to catch, has a great frame, and his swing has an athletic foundation that should be refined over time. He projects as a backup if the bat doesn’t improve, but has more ceiling than that if it does.

31. Trey Wingenter, RHP
Drafted: 17th Round, 2015 from Auburn (SDP)
Age 25.1 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 40/40 94-99 / 101

Wingenter is a nasty, two-pitch reliever whose fastball plays up because of its movement, and because Wingenter is huge and generates big extension. His slider has horizontal movement, which isn’t great for missing bats, but he keeps it down near the bottom of the zone and it doesn’t get touched up very often. If the breaking ball were a little better, Wingenter would probably be in the 40+ FV tier, but we tend to think the only impact pitch here is the heater.

32. Ignacio Feliz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
40/50 50/60 40/45 50/60 40/50 89-92 / 94

One of the best on-mound athletes in the 2018 AZL, Feliz is a converted shortstop with a delivery that looks an awful lot like Aroldis Chapman’s. The Padres acquired him on 40-man crunch day from Cleveland for depth starter Walker Lockett. Feliz sits only 88-92, but that should tick up as he physically matures. His fastball has natural cut, and at times, he throws what looks like a true cutter in the 84-87 range. He also has a 12-to-6 curveball that flashes plus.

Feliz could develop in a number of different ways. San Diego could make a concerted effort to alter his release so Feliz is more behind the ball, creating fastball life/rise that would probably play better with his curveball. Alternatively, they might nurture his natural proclivity for cut, and see what happens. Either way, this is an exciting athlete with workable stuff who’ll be 19 all summer. He has a chance to start, which is why he’s ahead of several other arms on this list who throw harder/are closer.

(BOS)
Age 27.2 Height 5′ 7″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/55 45/45 35/40 40/40 45/45 45/45

Quiroz was Team Mexico’s leadoff hitter during the 2017 WBC (he hit two homers and a double in six at-bats) and spent 2015-’17 crushing the Mexican League. He signed with Boston in November 2017, and was hot the following April at Double-A, but then missed three and a half months with an abdominal strain. He only played in 24 games at Double-A, then had 62 extra plate appearances in the Arizona Fall League. In Arizona, Quiroz looked pretty good. He’s a stocky and strong 5-foot-6, and he has average, all-fields power. He hit two full-extension, opposite field shots during the fall, including one that got out just left of center field at Sloan Park in Mesa. He’s patient and makes good decisions at the plate. He’s also fine at second base (below-average arm, below-average runner, above-average athlete, average hands) and played a lot of other positions while in Mexico. He’ll either need to be viable at other positions or just hit enough to play second base every day. It appears he has a chance to do the latter.

San Diego acquired him for fringe 40-man relief depth in the offseason. Quiroz presents rare 40-man flexibility because he’s arguably ready to contribute to a big league lineup right now, but because of how recently he signed, he doesn’t have to occupy a 40-man spot until the Padres need him on the active roster. They are log-jammed at second base at the moment, and haven’t asked Quiroz to play anywhere else yet. For now, he’s just a great depth option behind Ian Kinsler and Luis Urias, but if a rash of injuries or trades press Quiroz into action, he might be quite good.

34. Javier Guerra, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Panama (BOS)
Age 23.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/70 40/55 35/45 95-97 / 99

As Guerra struck out more and more during his final few seasons as a shortstop, he frequently appeared despondent, sullen, and visibly affected by his struggles in ways that were often obvious and concerning. He struck out in at least 30% of his at-bats every year since the Padres acquired him from Boston as part of the Craig Kimbrel deal. While his defensive actions remained enticing (they were, especially around the bag, some of the smoothest and quickest some scouts had ever seen), Guerra also became error-prone. He seemed a mess, a potential DFA candidate.

This spring, Guerra has moved to the mound. His first bullpen session, which took place in front of a very small contingent of Padres front office folks, was electric. The first fastball was clocked by Rapsodo at 97 mph, and a few fastballs later, Guerra touched 100.4 mph. He has been working, an inning at a time, twice a week in extended spring training. Eric saw him shortly before publication, and he was 95-98 with natural cut at times (in the linked video you can see how his fastball’s spin axis is somewhat slidery) and had pretty impressive slider feel for someone who has only been pitching for a few weeks. He’ll likely head out to an affiliate in the next week or so (probably Lake Elsinore). Guerra seems comfortable and confident on the mound, and he’s going right at hitters with that fastball. He’ll move as quickly as his strike-throwing and slider allow him to, and San Diego has incentive to move him along because Guerra is on the 40-man. We may see him on the mound at Petco this season.

35. Grant Little, 2B/OF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Texas Tech (SDP)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 45/50 50/50

Little doesn’t have sexy tools, but he can hit and passably play a number of positions — all three outfield spots and maybe second base — because he has good baseball feel and instincts. We consider him a high-probability utility type who could approach a 100 wRC+ and enable lots of favorable matchups and defensive flexibility on the rest of the roster.

36. Owen Miller, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Illinois State null
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 50/50 30/40 45/45 45/50 55/55

The wave of teenage talent currently at Hi-A drove San Diego to push Miller straight to Double-A to start his first full season, and he’s risen to the occasion, off to a pretty strong start, at least from a bat-to-ball standpoint. A minimalistic swing enables him to make high rates of contact while the strength in Miller’s hands generates doubles power. It’s not an exciting, athletic style of hitting but on an inoffensive, fundamentally sound defensive shortstop, it’s a pretty interesting skillset. Barring a significant swing change, Miller’s offensive output will likely cap his ceiling in the 40/45 FV range, but for a third round pick who moves quickly, that’s a great outcome.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 186 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/55 20/50 55/55 50/55 60/60

Olivares was acquired from the Blue Jays in the Yangervis Solarte deal and has loud tools, with all but the hit tool grading above average. The power may not play in games due to an indiscriminate approach, rather than poor bat control. That will be more palatable if Olivares can stay in center field, but the general consensus is that he’s a right fielder. He’s more of a low-end regular type in a corner.

38. Eguy Rosario, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age 19.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 20/45 50/40 45/50 50/50

It’s pronounced ‘Eggy’, which is appropriate considering Rosario is an ovular 5-foot-9. Though he was signed the prior year, Rosario is about the same age as the Latin American teenagers from San Diego’s big 2016 July 2 class, but had been playing a level ahead of that group until this year. He has a good swing, and is a viable defender at second and third who projects as a bench infielder. He’ll likely be Rule 5 eligible long before he’s ready to contribute to a big league club, just because he signed so young. He profiles as a utility infielder.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/60 40/50 30/50 92-95 / 96

Miliano arrived in the U.S. for his first instructional league at age 16 and was immediately of interest to pro scouts because of his present velo (90-94), projectable body, loose, fluid delivery, and curveball feel. As his velocity has ticked up, Miliano’s control has regressed, and he had a walk-happy 2018 in the AZL. That should probably be remedied before things like changeup development are addressed. You could go kind of nuts projecting on Miliano’s command and changuep based on how graceful and athletic he is, and he has a good chance to start one day despite his lousy 2018, but it’ll probably take a while.

40. Gerardo Reyes, RHP
(TBR)
Age 26.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 40/40 95-98 / 100

Texas-Brownsville shuttered their baseball program before Reyes was able to take the field for them, and he ended up transferring to Galveston College. He spent his sophomore year at Galveston injured, then went undrafted as a junior. He was discovered by the Rays at a workout near the U.S./Mexico border and later signed, then was traded to San Diego as part of the Wil Myers blockbuster. He’s a low-slot bullpen slinger with a tailing, upper-90s fastball, and his arm slot creates issues for righties. He needs to refine command of the breaking ball to better deal with lefties, but just on arm strength and fastball movement, he profiles as a fine middle relief option, at least.

41. Jorge Ona, LF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (SDP)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 40/50 50/45 45/50 50/50

The curvaceous Cuban outfielder has a perfectly fine collection of average tools, but the bat control is a little lacking and detracts enough from Ona’s production that he’ll likely max out as a low-end regular rather than an impact everyday hitter. Righty corner bats with fringe contact skills need to walk a lot and/or hit for huge power, and Ona doesn’t seem capable of that. He probably fits as a bench outfielder in the Aaron Altherr mold.

42. David Bednar, RHP
Drafted: 35th Round, 2016 from Lafayette (SDP)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 50/55 30/40 92-95 / 96

The barrel-chested Bednar has developed a good split in pro ball, making him an excellent three-pitch option for when relief usage minimums change in the future. He throws in the mid-90s (he was 89-92 as a starter in college) and has a snappy, 12-6 curveball. The curveball is probably what got him drafted, while the fastball/split development is driving a modern relief profile. He’s paving over Double-A and could reach the big leagues this year.

43. Brad Zunica, 1B
Drafted: 16th Round, 2015 from State College JC (FL) (SDP)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 254 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 40/55 20/20 40/45 55/55

Zunica had an unusual amateur career, graduating early to get to Miami, then not playing much and transferring to a junior college, where the Padres drafted the behemoth late in 2015. He is a physical monster with huge raw power, and has a good enough approach to draw walks and pick out pitches he can drive. The bat control, defense, and long-term athletic ability are all behind and concerning, but there’s a platoon or bench bat future here if he keeps hitting.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (SDP)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 40/45 91-94 / 96

Signed for just over $2 million late during the summer of 2016, Bolaños is a pretty standard fifth starter/middle relief prospect. His changeup and command both need to improve if he’s going to be a clean rotation fit, but if they don’t, his fastball (which lives 91-95 as a starter, but would hopefully tick up out of the bullpen) and slurvy breaking ball are typical of solid middle relievers. He’s repeating Hi-A and will likely be developed as a starter for a while yet, at least until he’s closer to when he needs to be added to the 40-man, two Novembers from now.

45. Dylan Coleman, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Missouri State (SDP)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 50/55 40/45 35/45 93-97 / 98

Coleman is a muscular 6-foot-6 righty who body comps to NBA wing players like Andre Iguodala more closely than he does others in baseball. He has plus velocity, hitting as high as 97 mph with his heater in college. He also has a 55 or 60-grade slider at times, though some of his breaking ball effectiveness is a product of his lower arm slot. As you might guess, the combination of power stuff and an XL frame can lead to feel issues and trouble repeating the release point, which leads to control problems. The change is also behind, and Coleman realistically projects as a reliever. After two Hi-A appearances during which his velo was way down, he was sent back to extended (but not put on the IL).

35+ FV Prospects

46. Charlis Aquino, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age 17.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Our favorite of the $300,000 signees from the 2018 July period (San Diego’s final year in the penalty box for their 2016 spending spree), Aquino is a very twitchy shortstop with an explosive first step and plus defensive hands and actions. He’s lanky and has a projectable frame, but needs to add significant weight/strength if he’s going to hit at all. He has a good shot to stay at short and perhaps be very good there, but there’s a lot of variability projecting the bat, which may not even be viable.

47. Agustin Ruiz, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Mexico (SDP)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

An excellent example of why it’s important to scout frames/builds, Ruiz’s physical tools were all 40s and 45s when he signed. But as his body has matured, those tools have all improved, and done so without Ruiz losing mobility because his broad, square-shouldered frame had plenty of room for this new mass. At times he still appears to be uncoordinated, still growing into his body, but Ruiz is still just the age of some older, draft-eligible high school seniors and he’s already having statistical success at Low-A. He’s become a sleeper platoon/low-end regular prospect, at least.

Drafted: 16th Round, 2014 from Northeastern (CHC)
Age 25.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

The Padres acquired Vosler from the Cubs for conversion reliever Rowan Wick during the offseason. He’s a lefty corner bat with power who has reached base at about a .340 clip since 2017, and he has two consecutive 20-homer seasons (and sub-30% groundball rates) against upper-level pitching. The hit tool is below average (it’s a lift-heavy, pull-only approach, with some stiffness) and will prevent Vosler from a larger role, but he should be a 1B/3B lefty bench bat. We wish he could also play left field, but Vosler looked a little thicker and stiffer this spring and anticipation of defensive limitations is why he’s down from his 40 FV peak.

49. Sean Guilbe, SS
Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Muhlenburg HS (PA) (SDP)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Built like a muscle car, Guilbe has electric bat speed and exciting pull-side power for a player his age. Already very muscular and strong, he needs to develop on defense (some scouts wanted to see him catch rather than see if he could become a viable infielder, and his hands aren’t great) and probably needs a swing overhaul (both the bat path and lower half usage were pretty rough in high school), but there’s a chance he’s a power-hitting up-the-middle player of some kind.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Barley has All-Star physical tools — plus run, range, arm, and power — but lots of teams/scouts are just out on him entirely because of how procedurally inept and reckless he can be. Signed in the same year as several of the teen prospects who have reached Hi- and Double-A, Barley remains back in extended spring training, likely ticketed for the Northwest League. He has the FV of a terrifyingly raw, but explosive, junior college hitter.

Drafted: 8th Round, 2018 from East Carolina (SDP)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Built like an NFL running back, Williams-Sutton is a small school power/speed project who signed for $350,000 as a fifth rounder. He may have success at the lower levels just based on how much stronger than the typical A-ball prospect he is. We’d be encouraged by statistical success, but probably wouldn’t really buy in here until Williams-Sutton hits at the upper levels, especially if there are strikeout issues, since this is a corner-only defensive fit.

52. Jesus Gonzalez, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (SDP)
Age 17.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Throwing just 81-86 when he signed, Gonzalez has begun to enjoy a velocity spike and is now topping out around 93. He has polished secondaries and succeeded in the DSL last year mostly due to advanced pitchability. Now he’s suddenly coming into velocity, and somewhat unexpectedly because Gonzalez’s frame is not especially projectable. You could argue he belongs among the pitchability lefties in the honorable mentions section of this org list, and he’ll be relegated there if his velocity settles into the upper-80s this summer, but there’s a chance the velo will keep coming.

53. Jacob Nix, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from IMG Academy HS (FL) (SDP)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

At times Nix has shown three above-average pitches and looked like a potential No. 4/5 starter, but his stuff was very hittable during his 2018 big league debut and he dealt with reduced stuff and elbow issues during the spring of 2019. He was shut down and given a PRP injection with hopes of avoiding Tommy John. He should start throwing again in May. Should he ultimately need TJ, we wouldn’t see Nix again until 2021.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2018 from Rutgers (SDP)
Age 22.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Harris had a tumultuous two-sport career at Rutgers. He led the football team in receptions as a redshirt freshman and had a very strong sophomore year on the diamond — .269/.377/.468 with 23 steals — before a back injury and suspension (he was suspended a few times while at Rutgers) sent him down the receiver depth chart (he played more safety as a redshirt sophomore). His junior baseball season was also discouraging. A plus-plus runner with above-average bat speed and a compact stroke, Harris is predictably raw in all facets of baseball, especially at the plate. A toolsy college lottery ticket, he signed for about $200,000.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Spain (SDP)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Heredia grew up playing soccer in Spain before he moved to the Dominican Republic during adolescence, at which point he was introduced to baseball. He’s gotten stronger within the last year and now has above-average bat speed, though he’s a bit stiffer than he was during his first stateside instructs. He presents kind of an old school look; no batting gloves, choking up on the bat proactively, with an all-fields approach to contact. It’s pretty impressive considering how little Heredia has played throughout his life. He’s a frame/athlete developmental project with any number of possible outcomes, the most realistically positive of which involve him either staying in center field, growing into power, or both. Based on how his body has developed over the last year, the middle scenario feels most likely.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Pitchability Arms
Joey Cantillo, LHP
Brett Kennedy, RHP
Efrain Contreras, RHP
Frank Lopez, RHP
Ramon Perez, LHP
Omar Cruz, LHP
Osvaldo Hernandez, LHP
Gabe Mosser, RHP

Cantillo, 19, signed for $300,000 in the 2017 16th round out of a Hawaii high school. Like Joey Lucchesi, he has a weird overhand delivery that hitters struggle to adapt to. He sits 88-91, has a good changeup, and his vertical arm slot creates depth on his breaking ball. He could be a big riser this year. Kennedy has four average pitches and has gotten lost in the prospect shuffle a bit because Lauer, Lucchessi, Quantrill, etc. are all a bit better. He’s a capable depth starter. Contreras is off to a strong start as a mature-bodied 19-year-old at Low-A. He sits in the low-90s, has an above-average changeup, and may have a 50 or 55 breaking ball at peak. In our shared notes, we have down that Contreras is known as “The Embalmer,” but neither of us remembers putting that in there. Lopez, 18, left his last extended start with an unknown injury. He was up to 96 last year but has been more 91-93 over the last 10 months, while his secondary stuff is average and flashes above. Both he and Contreras have mature builds. Cruz and Perez are stocky young lefties with average stuff; Hernandez is a little older but has a good split. Mosser went to little Shippensburg in South/Central PA and may be yet another college arm from that area who San Diego unearthed and moves quickly. He has an advanced four-pitch mix.

The 2018 July 2 Class
Nerwilliam Cedeno, SS
Euribel Angeles, SS
Alberto Fabian, OF
Wilmert Paula, 2B
Jose Miguel Velez, OF

All of these players were signed for $300,000 last year. Cedeno is a switch-hitting, athletic shortstop with a quick arm, and his feet are okay. He has some feel for contact but an imbalanced, uncomfortable foundation from both sides. Angeles has an oddly sloped swing, but has some feel to hit and pull-side pop. A pretty muscular, 5-foot-10, tapered-shoulder type, he has modest physical projection. Fabian is a thicker corner guy with advanced feel for contact. Paula is a lefty bat with a good frame and some feel for contact. His infield hands are plus but the footwork and arm strength are both below average. Velez is a right field profile with some power, and a good frame.

Young Sleeper Bats
Jack Suwinski, LF
Yerry Landinez, SS
Johnny Homza, C

This is a chef’s selection group. Suwinski, 20, was signed away from an Indiana commitment for $500,000. He’s been the most consistent offensive performer in that lauded 2016 draft/July 2 class but may not have a position. Landinez is a thick, 18-year-old infielder with all-fields power. He’s could fall down the defensive spectrum quickly due to his size, but the power is real. Homza was a high school infielder with an advanced bat who converted to catcher in pro ball. He’s a long term developmental project.

Older Sleeper Bats
Aderlin Rodriguez, OF
Jake Scavuzzo, OF

Both of these guys are minor league free agent types, but they each have huge raw power and could be late-blooming big leaguers.

Because You’ll Ask
Mason House, OF
Luis Almanzar, SS
Justin Lopez, SS

Concerns about House’s contact skills (he was a rural Texas popup high schooler who didn’t face quality pitching) turned out to be founded, and he has struggled to hit as a pro. His body, swing, and power remain very pleasing to scouts’ eyes. Almanzar’s weight has fluctuated since he signed but the bat speed scouts saw when he was an amateur just isn’t there anymore. Lopez has issues with lever length, but he’s a good defender.

Relief-Types
Starlin Cordero, RHP
Henry Henry, RHP
Brad Wieck, LHP
Wen-Hua Sung, RHP
Jean Cosme, RHP
Dauris Valdez, RHP
Lake Bachar, RHP
Trevor Megill, RHP
Jose Geraldo, RHP
Jake Sims, RHP

Cordero is a long-limbed, 6-foot-7, and has trouble repeating, but he throws really hard and has a deceptive delivery. He’s still just 20 but has spent four years in rookie ball trying to develop viable control. Henry is a loose, well-built, low-slot righty who sits 90-93 with an average slider. The slot is a bit of an obstacle and makes it likely that he’s a reliever. Wieck is a multi-pitch lefty relief piece who had cancer surgery this spring. Sung is a 22-year-old with a plus splitter. Cosme is a 22-year-old three-pitch reliever. Valdez is a bad bodied reliever who throws 100. Bachar was a college punter whose stuff seems to have ticked up recently; he’s in the low-90s, with an above-average curveball. Megill is a fastball/slider reliever in his mid-20s. Geraldo will touch 97 but sits 93-94 with an average slider. Sims was a 2018 late round pick out of a small Florida college who has been 94-97 in extended.

System Overview

If a competitive San Diego Padres team isn’t already here, it’s certainly close. The churn of fringe 40-man talents is a sign that a team is nearing a critical mass of big league talent, and the Padres were compelled to reshape their roster with moves like that last year. They traded superfluous pitching for Jason Vosler (who fit a more immediate need at the time; he’s been passed by Ty France since), Esteban Quiroz (who is advanced and can help right now if he’s needed, but doesn’t take a 40-man spot), and Ignacio Feliz (an athletic, teenage arm). More moves like this are likely to occur this summer, as the team appears to be in the NL West race and has a surfeit of upper-level outfielders of note. There’s such a ludicrous amount of depth here that consolidation is almost necessary.

Because we’re talking about the best farm system in baseball, the talent has come from all angles. Trades, Latin America, the draft — each avenue has been fruitful. There are still some trends to pick out, though. Most of the high-profile teenage pitching targeted by San Diego has been advanced. Gore, Weathers, and Morejon were all bulldog, outwardly competitive lefties when they signed. The Padres have unearthed quick-moving college arms in the draft’s mid and late rounds. The tenacious scouting staff takes its lead from GM A.J. Preller, who seemingly does more in-person player eval than any other lead executive. The team appears to be on the verge of delivering a successful rebuild, and has amassed such a huge collection of talent that it appears they’ll be able to add via trade while still maintaining a healthy pipeline of dudes, especially now that they once again have big bonus flex in Latin America.


Top 35 Prospects: Los Angeles Dodgers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Dodgers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Dodgers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Keibert Ruiz 20.8 AA C 2020 60
2 Dustin May 21.7 AA RHP 2020 55
3 Gavin Lux 21.4 AA 2B 2021 55
4 Will Smith 24.1 AAA C 2019 50
5 Alex Verdugo 23.0 MLB RF 2019 50
6 Tony Gonsolin 25.0 AAA RHP 2019 45+
7 Jeter Downs 20.8 A+ 2B 2021 45+
8 Josiah Gray 21.4 A RHP 2021 45
9 Omar Estevez 21.2 AA 2B 2020 45
10 DJ Peters 23.4 AA CF 2020 45
11 Diego Cartaya 17.6 R C 2023 40+
12 Dennis Santana 23.0 MLB RHP 2019 40+
13 Connor Wong 22.9 A+ C 2020 40+
14 Jacob Amaya 20.7 A SS 2022 40+
15 Jeren Kendall 23.2 A+ CF 2021 40+
16 Mitchell White 24.3 AA RHP 2019 40
17 Cristian Santana 22.2 A 3B 2021 40
18 Michael Grove 22.4 A+ RHP 2022 40
19 Edwin Rios 25.0 AAA 1B 2019 40
20 Matt Beaty 26.0 MLB 1B 2019 40
21 Yadier Alvarez 23.1 AA RHP 2020 40
22 Gerardo Carrillo 20.6 A+ RHP 2022 40
23 Jordan Sheffield 23.9 A+ RHP 2019 40
24 Miguel Vargas 19.5 A 3B 2022 40
25 Carlos Rincon 21.5 A+ RF 2021 40
26 Carlos Duran 17.7 R RHP 2024 40
27 Robinson Ortiz 19.3 R LHP 2023 40
28 Josh Sborz 25.4 AAA RHP 2019 40
29 Andy Pages 18.4 R RF 2023 35+
30 Zach Willeman 23.1 A RHP 2022 35+
31 Cody Thomas 24.6 AA OF 2021 35+
32 Leonel Valera 19.8 A SS 2023 35+
33 John Rooney 22.3 A LHP 2020 35+
34 Jerming Rosario 17.0 R RHP 2024 35+
35 Drew Jackson 25.8 MLB SS 2019 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (LAD)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr S / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/70 50/50 30/40 30/20 50/60 55/55

Watching Ruiz catch is like watching video of Alan Shepard play golf on the moon. Things seem to be moving at a different pace for Keibert, especially on defense. He has a thick, unimpressive build and is a mediocre athlete, but almost all of his baseball skills are elite. He’s one of the better receivers in the minors and is a better ball blocker than one would expect given his lack of athleticism, as if he has wild pitch precognition. Despite average pure arm strength, Ruiz is going to snipe a lot of would-be base-stealers because his throws are almost always right on the bag.

The skills-over-tools coloration of Ruiz’s profile continues on offense, where his hand-eye coordination and bat control make him extraordinarily hard to strike out. He struck out in just 8% of his plate appearances last year as a 19/20-year-old at Double-A Tulsa. Because Ruiz can make contact with just about anything, he tries to, and his lack of selectivity will likely limit his big league power output and perhaps his ability to reach base. But he has a very rare skillset for a catcher and a good chance to be an All-Star.

55 FV Prospects

2. Dustin May, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Northwest HS (TX) (LAD)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 60/70 45/50 50/60 45/60 93-96 / 98

May’s flamboyant ginger curls and Bronson Arroyo-esque leg kick are maybe the third and fourth most visually captivating aspects of his on-mound presence once you’ve gotten a look at his stuff. His mid-90s fastball plays up due to great extension, and further incorporation of a running two-seamer has given May’s heater enough tail to miss bats in the strike zone. His vertically-breaking slider (May calls it a slider, but it has curveball shape) has one of the better spin rates in the minors and enough vertical depth to miss bats against both left and right-handed hitters. It’s May’s out pitch, but he also has a developing cutter and its movement is a great foil for his two-seamer. After trying several different changeup grips in 2017, it seems like May is still searching for a good cambio, but his fastball and breaking ball command should suffice against lefties for now.

The leg kick makes May slow to home and he may be vulnerable to the stolen base because of it, which forces him to vary his cadence home in an attempt to stymie runners. Now at Double-A, what was once a prospect with mid-rotation upside has become one with mid-rotation likelihood.

3. Gavin Lux, 2B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Indian Trail Academy HS (WI) (LAD)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/60 40/55 55/55 50/55 45/45

Lux has become almost the inverse of what he was in high school. Drafted as a glove-first shortstop, he has developed throwing issues that we believe will push him to second base. His early-season onslaught at Rancho Cucamonga could have been interpreted as a Cal League mirage, but Lux continued to hit and hit for power at Double-A Tulsa after promotion and scouts have future plus grades on his raw power.

Now much more physical and strong than he was when he was drafted, Lux is the latest Dodgers player to enjoy a beneficial swing change. His hands have become more active before they fire, and his swing has more lift now, resulting in a ground ball rate that fell from 52% in 2017 to 42% in 2018. His bat is quick enough to catch velocity up in the zone and Lux is strong enough to punish it. The changes haven’t had a negative impact on his feel for contact and he remains a selective hitter, as well. We’re somewhat concerned about the throwing issues but there’s middle infield speed and athletic ability here, and we hope those get ironed out because if they do, Lux could be an All-Star.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Louisville (LAD)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 192 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 55/55 40/55 55/50 50/55 60/60

In the 2016 draft, Smith was a scout’s favorite on a loaded Louisville club that had eventual top-10 overall picks Corey Ray and Brendan McKay as the headliners. At that point, he was a 55 runner with a 55 glove behind the plate and a plus arm, but didn’t offer much offensive impact due to a gap-to-gap approach. He made a late charge and rose from a third round pick to eventually being taken by the Dodgers in the compensation round.

In the pros, the Dodgers did with Smith what they’ve done with many other hitters, teaching him how to properly lift the ball and be aggressive in his swing mechanics. This agreed with Smith, unlocking dormant raw and game power while lifting the ball much more often. His contact rate was about the same until a late 2018 promotion to Triple-A, where he was exposed a bit. Scouts think there’s an exploitable hole in his swing and that he’s more of a .240-type hitter if he wants to keep hitting for power in games. He’s still the same runner, defender, and thrower, and can reasonably play almost any position on the field, so even .240 with 20 homers would be a very valuable piece to a contending team, even more so than Austin Barnes.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Sahuaro HS (AZ) (LAD)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/60 55/55 40/45 45/40 50/50 60/60

Verdugo has spent the bulk of each of the last two seasons at Triple-A, a victim of the Dodgers terrific outfield depth. So excellent is his natural feel to hit that it’s amazing many scouts preferred him on the mound while Verdugo was in high school. He’s a career 12% strikeout hitter, whose rates haven’t really moved even as the Dodgers have altered his swing to make it more explosive and try to get Verdugo to hit for more power. His stance is super wide open, the way Justin Turner’s is, before Verdugo takes a long, slow stride toward the pitcher, leading with his heel, and then uncorks a max-effort hack that sometimes sends him reeling into the ground.

It’s incredible that Verdugo is athletic enough to make so much contact with this swing, but he still doesn’t lift the ball very much, and probably maxes out with doubles power. We don’t think he fits in center field, and the lack of power is largely why he’s down here, though it also sounds like part of the reason teams have been asking for other Dodgers prospects in trades is due to some past off-field stuff.

45+ FV Prospects

6. Tony Gonsolin, RHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2016 from St. Mary’s (LAD)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 50/50 55/55 45/45 91-95 / 98

A two-way college player, Gonsolin was a ninth round senior sign whose velocity spiked in pro ball when he focused on pitching, moved to the bullpen (he has since moved back into the rotation, after he was yo-yo’d back and forth in college), and was touched by the Dodgers excellent player dev group. At times his fastball has been in the upper-90s, cresting 100, but it was in the low-90s this spring and he was placed on he injured list thereafter with an oblique issue.

Gonsolin’s four-pitch mix looks like it was designed in a lab and considering the way his stuff works together, it may have been. He’s an extreme overhand, backspinning four-seam guy, and he works up at the letters with it. It’s complemented by a deep-diving, 12-6 curveball. He’ll also work a slider to his glove side and it has shocking, horizontal length considering Gonsonlin’s arm slot. But the headline offering here is the changeup, a split-action cambio that bottoms out as it reaches the plate. Gonsolin uses it against both left and right-handed hitters and it’s one of the best changeups in the minors. It’s a non-traditional style of pitching for a starter, so some eyeball scouts think he ends up in the bullpen. If so, it’s probably in a valuable multi-inning role. Age and some relief risk just barely kept him off our top 100.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Monsignor Pace HS (FL) (CIN)
Age 20.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/50 45/40 40/50 55/55

He was just 19 for most of the season, but Downs had a strong 2018 at Low-A Dayton, where he hit .257/.351/.402 with 37 steals (a 78% success rate) and 35 extra-base hits. He’s a bat-first middle infielder who has a non-zero chance to stick at shortstop, and he’s likely to continue to see time there until he reaches the upper levels of the minors, at which point the Dodgers will make a decision as to where he fits best. Scouts in other orgs think it will be second base or the outfield. Most of Downs’ physical abilities hover near average but he does a little bit of everything, which, so long as he stays on the middle infield, gives him a good chance to be an average everyday player.

45 FV Prospects

8. Josiah Gray, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from LeMoyne (CIN)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/50 40/50 92-95 / 96

Gray is an athletic, undersized conversion arm with big time arm-acceleration. His arm action is a little stiff, but it’s fast, and generates a fastball in the 92-96 mph range (mostly 3s and 4s) with riding life. Gray’s size and the drop and drive nature of his delivery combine to create flat plane that plays well up in the zone. He’ll miss bats at the letters with his heater. Thanks to his athleticism, Gray repeats, and throws more strikes than is typical for someone fairly new to pitching who has this kind of stuff, with a notable proclivity for locating his fastball to his arm side.

The slider can slurve out and even get kind of short and cuttery at times, but when it’s well-located and Gray is on top of the ball, it’s a plus pitch. His changeup, which he seldom uses at the moment, is easy to identify out of the hand due to arm deceleration, and is comfortably below average.

Because of the strike throwing, fastball efficacy, and ability to spin the breaking ball give him a good shot to play a big league role, and we’ve moved Gray up beyond where we had him pre-draft. The athleticism, small school pedigree, and position player conversion aspect of the profile indicates there’s significant potential for growth as Gray gets on-mound experience. He projects as No. 4 starter, with a chance to be more because of his late-bloomer qualities.

9. Omar Estevez, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba (LAD)
Age 21.2 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 40/50 45/40 40/45 50/50

Estevez was a resounding success repeating Hi-A while still just 20, and coupled it with moments of brilliance with the big league club during the spring of 2019. He continues to split time at both middle infield spots and he’s fine at both positions, but what’s exciting about Estevez is the bat. He’s very short to the ball, but his swing still has natural lift to his pull side, and he can pull most anything because of how short the swing is. He’s probably going to get to his raw power in games because of this, which makes him a potential everyday middle infielder despite a lack of physical explosiveness in other areas.

10. DJ Peters, CF
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Western Nevada (LAD)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 65/70 45/55 60/50 45/50 60/60

It’s rare for a player with this toolset to fall to the fourth round, even if it is a junior college hitter with strikeout issues. Peters has continued to perform amid his swing and miss red flags. He’s homered 28 times on average during each of his full seasons despite striking out in roughly a third of his at-bats. There’s little precedent for hitters who K this much to have consistent success in the big leagues. Michael Taylor, Keon Broxton, Lewis Brinson, and Ian Happ are some examples of center fielders with power who strike out about that much, and they’ve had periods of ineffectiveness.

Of course, Peters’ upside is enticing if he gets to his mammoth raw power anyway, which to this point, he has. This is predicated on him playing center field, which considering Peters is built like a young Adam Dunn, is no guarantee. He’s a plus runner underway but it takes a while for him to reach top speed. Right now, that is more detrimental from home to first than it is roaming the outfield, but it’s likely that a frame like this moves to a corner eventually. The Dodgers, who love Peters’ work ethic, sent him back to Double-A for the second straight year. He may have hot stretches where he hits for tons of power, and ice ages when he strikes out a ton. We think it’s a high-variance profile with a shot to make some All-Star teams while other years will be lean, and closer to replacement level.

40+ FV Prospects

11. Diego Cartaya, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (LAD)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/55 20/45 40/30 40/55 60/60

This is a very physical teenager with some of the best present raw power in his signing class and a good chance to play a premium defensive position at catcher. Cartaya has a strong, physically mature build that inspires Salvador Perez comparisons. He has excellent lateral mobility despite his size, and his receiving was alright, but not great, when he caught pro-quality stuff at showcases.

He checks all the other beloved catcher skillset boxes: Cartaya is poised and engaged with his pitchers, he has a great arm, he looks built to meet the position’s physical demands, and makes an attempt to frame pitches when he can. There’s a chance he outgrows the position but he’s deceptively athletic for his size, and we’d call it unlikely. There’s not as much room for power projection here as there is for most others this age, but there’s enough to profile at catcher. Cartaya’s approach is geared for well-timed, pull-side gap contact. He’s a potential regular who’ll likely spend his first pro season in Arizona, as he’s too physical for the DSL.

12. Dennis Santana, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 50/50 45/50 90-94 / 96

A conversion arm whose command took a significant step forward in 2017, his fourth year devoted to pitching, Santana made his major league debut in 2018 before succumbing to a rotator cuff injury for the rest of the season. He began 2019 in the bullpen, throwing about 45 pitches per outing, but his last two appearances were starts.

His changeup and command have developed enough to consider him a long-term starter but the power curveball, which suffered a stark downtick in spin rate before he was shut down last year, is his best pitch. The shoulder stuff, a short stride, and early-season deployment in the bullpen have us somewhat concerned about Santana’s long term health and role, but on stuff he’s a potential No. 4 starter.

13. Connor Wong, C
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Houston (LAD)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 50/50 40/45 55/50 45/50 50/50

An athletic, multi-positional player who spent his early college career at shortstop, Wong now sees time behind the plate, as he did throughout most of college, and at second and third base. Like most of the hitters in this org, he hits the ball in the air a lot and strikes out at a concerning rate. That, along with a few defensive flaws that may still be corrected with time, especially as he learns to handle upper-level stuff in the dirt, probably limit Wong to a unique kind of utility role or a backup catcher and infielder role similar to Austin Barnes’, which is a bit better than just a flat 40 FV prospect.

14. Jacob Amaya, SS
Drafted: 11th Round, 2017 from South Hills HS (CA) (LAD)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/45 30/40 55/55 45/55 50/50

A $250,000 11th rounder from a high school east of Los Angeles, Amaya is a diminutive infielder with excellent secondary skills and sneaky power for his size. Though not especially rangy at shortstop, Amaya has plus hands and actions and enough arm strength to stay on the left side of the infield. A lack of power and physical projection makes him appear, on the surface, like he’ll max out as a utility guy, but he makes up some offensive ground because his eye for the strike zone is so good. Instinctive and fundamentally sound, even if Amaya is only a utility type, his chances of getting there are high, and if his secondary skills hold water into the upper levels of the minors perhaps he’ll be more than that.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Vanderbilt (LAD)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/55 40/50 70/70 50/60 50/50

Wielding uncommon tools for a college prospect, perhaps the most explosive since George Springer was at UConn, Kendall was on the short list of 2017 1-1 candidates when his college season began. Then he didn’t hit during his junior year and slid toward the back half of the first round, where the Dodgers couldn’t pass on his tools. Badly in need of a swing change, Kendall’s cut still isn’t quite dialed in and he’s struggling to make contact at Hi-A. He’s a high-risk, high-variance prospect, the kind who might have a 4 WAR season in him because of the power and speed, but not be playable at other times. 2019 is a big year for Kendall and his stock, and it is off to an inauspicious start.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Santa Clara (LAD)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 207 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 40/40 55/60 45/45 93-95 / 97

Injured (Tommy John) and in the bullpen for much of college, several teams were out on White when the Dodgers made him a 2016 second rounder. He has had fits and starts of injury in pro ball, and his velocity has waxed and waned. It was back up this spring, in the 93-95 range, but the lost reps have robbed White of changeup and command refinement. His stuff is good, though. The cutter/slider and curveball are both impact pitches, and just on stuff White belongs a half grade higher on this list, because he has No. 4/5 starter or high-leverage relief stuff. But the injury history and velo fluctuation are bothersome, and so too is the way White’s strike-throwing has plateaued. He may have some years as a high-leverage reliever or mid-rotation starter, but there’s a good chance for some leaner years, as well.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 40/55 40/40 45/50 60/60

Several of the next few hitters on this list are talented, if flawed, corner infield bats. Santana’s flaw is his approach, as he’s posting near bottom-of-the-scale walk rates of about 3%. There’s little to no recent precedent for a third baseman who is this aggressive having sustained success as a regular unless they have elite bat-to-ball skills, and while Santana has big time bat speed, he’s not a contact savant. He has shown some ability to make mechanical adjustments, though, much to the chagrin of those entertained by his former cut, which looked like a Vaudeville comedian was miming a baseball swing.

Santana has started to see time at first base and he profiles as a corner bench bat or platoon partner. He’s ahead of Rios and Beaty because he’s a good deal younger and has the best glove of the three, but if you think handedness is of more significant importance, then you could argue Santana should be at the back of the group.

18. Michael Grove, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from West Virginia (LAD)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/45 40/50 90-93 / 95

Grove was working 92-96 with a good slider when he blew out his elbow two months into his sophomore season at West Virginia. He didn’t pitch as a junior, but clearly the Dodgers stayed on him, scouted the bullpen sessions he threw as the draft approached, and liked what they saw; they popped him in the second round. He spent the rest of the year finishing rehab and working on a changeup in the bullpen.

Back in games this spring, Grove has been 93-95, up to 96.6, with a 12:30 spin axis, which teams like LA and Houston seem to prefer, as 12:30 is almost pure backspin, a component of fastball rise. Grove has two different breaking balls, a low-80s curveball and an upper-80s slider, but it’s clear changeup development is the priority right now. The Dodgers sent Grove straight to Hi-A and it appears he’ll be on an innings limit and throw shorter outings so he can pitch all year rather than go six or seven innings at a shot and be shut down sometime during the summer. He’s well-built, athletic, throws hard, and has good measurable spin, and the Dodgers have a pretty good track record of developing arms, including several with college injuries. Though scouts we spoke with who saw Grove this spring thought he lacked feel, that could be chalked up to rust, and we like Grove as a riser.

19. Edwin Rios, 1B
Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from Florida International (LAD)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 70/70 55/60 20/20 40/40 60/60

At a hulking 6-foot-3, Rios body comps better to taller NFL running backs like Eddie George than your typical baseball player. He has arguably the most raw power in this system but has struggled to get to it in games because his swing is grooved and he’s a bit of a free swinger. Of this little corner bat triumvirate, Rios has the most concerning peripherals, but he also has the most power and experience at multiple positions as he’s played first, third and both corner outfield spots. 2019 is his first option year, and he’ll be a powerful bench bat/corner depth option for the next half decade but likely won’t hit enough to be a regular.

20. Matt Beaty, 1B
Drafted: 12th Round, 2015 from Belmont (LAD)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 45/50 40/40 40/40 50/50

Coming off a strong 2017 during which he was named Texas League Player of the Year, Beaty only played 34 games in 2018 due to a torn thumb ligament that required surgery. Of this 3B/1B group, Beaty has the most modest physical ability but the best feel fo hit. His lateral mobility issues arguably limit him to first base alone, but he continues to get reps at third and in left field. He’s a swing change candidate who might benefit from more lift but, at age 26, that seems unlikely. He’s a lefty bench bat option.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba (LAD)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/55 55/60 40/40 30/35 94-97 / 99

The first draft of this list left Alvarez off entirely until we sourced Trackman data for this org and felt compelled to reinsert him in a prominent spot. The World Team starter in the 2017 Futures Game (and the owner of some of the most dastardly stuff in the minors, which he generates with absurd ease), Alvarez spent 2018 injured, disgruntled, and ineffective. He walked nearly a batter per inning. His 2019 still hasn’t really gotten off the ground. He was added to the 40-man in November but had arm soreness in the spring and didn’t pitch in a big league spring game while he worked on his mechanics in minor league camp. His first start of the year was a disaster, and he was shut down and put on the IL immediately after. This situation is officially mess, but a supremely talented one.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Mexico (LAD)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 55/60 30/40 30/45 93-96 / 97

Carrillo generated a lot of scout interest around the trade deadline, with some of his starts on the Arizona backfields very well-attended at the end of July. He was maintaining velocity deep into games and has nasty breaking stuff. He’s physically mature, a little bit stiff, and struggled with fastball control this spring. There’s relief risk here, but Carrillo’s stuff is essentially what Grove’s was when he was the same age, so he’s tracking like a second round college arm.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Vanderbilt (LAD)
Age 23.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 45/45 50/55 40/40 90-96 / 97

A biceps strain limited Sheffield to just 34 innings in Rancho Cucamonga and another nine in the Fall League, so he’s back in Hi-A as a 23-year-old, and officially in the bullpen. But the stuff is good. It seems as though the upper-90s velocity is gone, but it’s still plenty hard and Sheffield has three quality pitches, even if the changeup just acts as a ground ball inducer. He could be a late-inning guy, and pretty quickly now.

24. Miguel Vargas, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (LAD)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 50/55 30/45 45/40 40/45 55/55

So conservative was Vargas’ swing when he first arrived in the states that Dodgers coaches were trying to make adjustments to his lower-half use in the middle of games in the hopes that it would unlock power that was clearly dormant in his hands. He has good control of the strike zone and feel to hit for a teenager but despite playing some second and third, he may ultimately wind up at first base. If that’s the case, a change that enables the power is necessary.

25. Carlos Rincon, RF
(LAD)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/65 40/55 40/40 40/45 45/45

After posting an uninspiring line over three months of Midwest League play, Rincon went to the Cal League for the season’s final month and went nuts. He hit 15 homers in just 29 games, slugging .818 during that span. The hitting environment in California caricatured his pop, but there’s impact power here if Rincon can get to enough of it to profile in right. He’s posted above-average walk rates over his last 600 plate appearances, which takes some pressure off the hit tool. This is a traditional, power/whiff right field profile who is starting to prove he has an approach.

26. Carlos Duran, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 17.7 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 250 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 45/55 90-94 / 96

A teenage leviathan, Duran has present arm strength (he’ll bump 96) and spins the occasional plus curveball. His arm slot creates movement on his fastball, which should pair well with his sinking change once it becomes more consistent. Duran threw a lot of strikes last year and only walked three hitters in 42 innings. His body, even at 6-foot-7, is already maxed out and he may not grow into more velocity, but his secondary stuff and control are already fairly well in place. The fastball plane doesn’t pair well with Duran’s breaking ball, but he otherwise has pretty safe starter traits.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/50 40/50 89-94 / 96

Ortiz didn’t make a leap in 2018. His arm swing sometimes causes his fastballs to sail or makes it tough for him to get on top of his curveball, but there’s a fairly advanced three-pitch mix on a teenage lefty here. He is not all that physically projectable, so don’t anticipate him adding significant zip on his fastball. Command and secondary pitch refinement are likely to dictate his ceiling.

28. Josh Sborz, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Virginia (LAD)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 50/50 92-95 / 96

Sborz is your typical middle relief prospect. He sits in mid-90s and benefits from mechanical deception. His breaking ball doesn’t spin a lot but it’s spin-efficient and has depth and effectual movement. Sborz has better control than most relievers and spent time developing as a starter.

35+ FV Prospects

29. Andy Pages, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Signed late during the 2017-2018 international amateur calendar year, Pages hit for power in the DSL, came to the states toward the end of the summer, and stood out to scouts. He does indeed have impressive raw power for his age and size and, for whatever it’s worth, his early-career peripherals are strong. The defensive limitations will make it a tough profile but Pages’ career is off to a good start considering he’s not physically remarkable.

30. Zach Willeman, RHP
Drafted: 19th Round, 2017 from Kent State (LAD)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Walker Buehler is the most prominent example of a Dodgers prospect throwing harder upon returning from Tommy John surgery but Willeman is the latest, as he was sitting 95 or better when he finally threw pro innings in 2018. His repertoire is pretty deep but his pitch quality is inconsistent, a bi-product of two college seasons in the bullpen and time lost due to surgery. He has a cutter, curveball, and changeup and the latter two could each be above-average at peak. Willeman is stocky and his delivery has some effort. He stayed back in extended to start 2019 and is a 23-year-old with just 19 affiliated pro innings, so he belongs in a FV tier below other, similarly-aged, relief prospects.

31. Cody Thomas, OF
Drafted: 13th Round, 2016 from Oklahoma null
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

A two-sport athlete in college, Thomas has really only been playing baseball full time since 2016, so while he’s advanced in age he isn’t in experience. With that in mind, Thomas’ 20 annual homers despite sky-high strikeout rates are pretty impressive. He has power, he runs well, he throws well. It’s a traditional right field profile on its face, just one that is behind the developmental curve and of high risk because of the strikeouts. Thomas has to be added to the 40-man this offseason or risk being Rule 5 eligible, making him a trade candidate if a team likes his physical tools and has the 40-man space to let him simmer at Triple-A for another year or so.

32. Leonel Valera, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (LAD)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

An atypical Venezuelan shortstop prospect, Valera has a big, projectable frame, plus bat speed, and a laser arm. His feel to hit is lacking in a way that may be fatal to his profile, but he has the physical tools to be an everyday player if it develops.

33. John Rooney, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Hofstra (LAD)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / L FV 35+

It’ll be interesting to see what the Dodgers player dev staff molds Rooney into, because there is indeed interesting raw material to work with. Rooney doesn’t throw all that hard, but his fastball plays up a bit thanks to good angle and extension, he has impressive changeup feel (and an incredible pickoff move) for a cold-weather, small school prospect. His curveball is hard, has good shape, but lacks bite and raw spin. On stuff, he looks like a depth arm, but there are some late-bloomer traits here. Realistically, he could grow into a backend starter.

34. Jerming Rosario, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (LAD)
Age 17.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A very young righty who signed for $600,000 last July, Rosario has a fastball in the 88-91 range and spins a good breaking ball on occasion. He’s mechanically inconsistent, which impacts his fastball command and causes the shape of his curveball to vary, but Rosario is the age of a high school junior and it’s unreasonable to expect more polish at this time. There’s debate about whether or not his frame is actually projectable as, while his measurables indicate that it is, he’s slight of build.

35. Drew Jackson, SS
Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Stanford (SEA)
Age 25.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 30/40 50/50 60/60 45/50 70/70

Jackson has plenty in the way of pure tools: he’s a plus runner with a plus-plus arm who’s average defensively at shortstop. He can play all over and has some raw power and lift to his swing, which the Dodgers added over the past few seasons. There isn’t a ton of feel to hit and scouts who were betting that getting away from Stanford, combined with his athleticism, would unlock more offensive potential are running out of time to be proven right, but Jackson is still a useful 25th man type of ballplayer.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Some More Pitching Depth
Jeronimo Castro, RHP
Juan Morillo, RHP
Marshall Kasowski, RHP
Jamie Schultz, RHP
Shea Spitzbarth, RHP
Guillermo Zuniga, RHP
Braydon Fisher, RHP
Morgan Cooper, RHP
Riley Otteson, RHP
Orlandy Navarro, LHP
Stetson Allie, RHP

Castro throws hard, gets great extension, and he hides the ball really well. His changeup has movement and his slider plays up because of the deception. He’s got some helium. Morillo is a standard fastball/slider projection arm. He has average stuff but is 20, the age of a college sophomore. There’s disagreement about Kasowski, who struck out 111 in 64 innings last year. He sits 92-93 with life/rise and misses bats with the fastball, but some teams think that’s it, and that the secondaries are just okay. He’s 24 and did most of his damage at Low-A last year. Schultz is a fine big league middle reliever with three pitches — 95-97, plus curveball, and hard slider. He’s 27. Spitzbarth is a plus athlete with a plus changeup. The fastball plays a little better than its velo and he’ll probably be a solid middle reliever. Zuniga was throwing really hard last year, at times up to 99. He also has a monster curveball and some feel, but he’s a thick, 3 athlete, and his velo is down this spring. Fisher, Cooper, and Otteson all have good stuff but have dealt with injuries. Fisher had Tommy John within the last two weeks, so we won’t see him until late next year. Cooper still hasn’t pitched in pro ball and Otteson has been very wild when he has. Navarro has a below average fastball but a good split and curveball. Allie throws really hard and is still quite wild.

Hitters
Connor Joe, OF/3B
Sauryn Lao, 3B
Marcus Chiu, INF
Starling Heredia, OF
Jared Walker, 1B
Niko Hulsizer, OF

Joe has bounced around after being a Rule 5 selection, but is back with LA. He made substantive changes to his swing while there originally, and is a viable bench bat without a real position. Lao has power and somehow makes quality contact even when he takes awkward swings. His future position is also unclear but he has a shot to stay at third. Chiu has tumbled down the defensive spectrum a bit and is seeing time at first and third rather than the middle infield, but he has some pop, too. Heredia is tooled up but is striking out almost 50% of the time. Walker and Hulsizer have goofy, strength-driven power.

System Overview

You can’t talk about this system without talking about player development, which has not only helped prospects you knew about turn into stars, but also contributed to breakouts from late-blooming big leaguers like Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy. Driveline Baseball recently attempted to quantify the effectiveness of player development. The Dodgers are at the top of their list, and we’d have guessed they were at or near it (the same goes for most of the teams in the black).

The type of hitter in this system is fairly monochromatic — they all have big power, lift the ball consistently, and strike out a lot — which is a sign that the player dev group is successfully installing what it wants to, since most of the big league Dodgers look like that as well. Might there one day be a biodiversity problem in LA’s hitting population that enables opposing pitching staffs to solve all their bats? People with teams we’d consider to be at the forefront of understanding the interaction between hitters and pitchers as it’s currently constituted don’t think so.

How about all the injured college arms? Walker Buehler, Jose De Leon, Morgan Cooper, Michael Grove, Mitchell White, Zach Willeman, and Jordan Sheffield all had stock-altering injuries as amateurs but were good values where they were drafted if you just care about stuff. You could argue only Buehler has become anything from that group, but binary, pass/fail thinking is too narrow when considering this stuff.

The discourse surrounding the club’s 2015 International signing class — and that general era of Dodgers international scouting — haunts LA in several ways. Yes, some of the names are ugly. Alex Guerrero, Erisbel Arruebarrena, Hector Olivera, Yaisel Sierra, Yadier Alvarez, and Starling Heredia have fallen short. But Ronny Brito, Yusniel Diaz, and Oneil Cruz fetched something in trade and Sauryn Lao, Carlos Rincon, and Omar Estevez are still around and of note. The top international brass from this era is gone (more on that in a second) and the new group (Dave Finley, Ismael Cruz, Francisco Camps, etc.) has started to get their feet in the major markets (the late signings of Pages, Duran, Vargas in 2017, Cartaya in 2018) while continuing to do well in Mexico.

Let’s talk about the timeline of the DOJ’s investigation. Andrew Friedman was brought on as the Dodgers’ president of ops in the fall of 2014, when most of the 2015 July 2 agreements had likely already been agreed upon by the international scouting staff Friedman inherited. Shortly after the Dodgers spent all that money on players like Alvarez, they let go of many of those international scouts. Who knew what, when they knew it, and what they did once they became aware of potential illegal activity during that 10 month span could be a problem for individuals who weren’t involved in the initial dirt.


Top 41 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Minnesota Twins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Twins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Royce Lewis 19.9 A+ SS 2020 65
2 Alex Kirilloff 21.5 A+ RF 2020 60
3 Brusdar Graterol 20.7 AA RHP 2021 50
4 Trevor Larnach 22.2 A+ RF 2020 50
5 Wander Javier 20.3 R SS 2022 45+
6 Jhoan Duran 21.3 A+ RHP 2022 45
7 Jose Miranda 20.8 A+ 2B 2022 45
8 Yunior Severino 19.6 A 2B 2023 45
9 Brent Rooker 24.5 AAA 1B 2019 40+
10 Ryan Jeffers 22.1 A+ C 2021 40+
11 Willians Astudillo 27.5 MLB 1B 2019 40+
12 Luis Arraez 22.0 AA 2B 2019 40+
13 Lewis Thorpe 23.4 AAA LHP 2019 40
14 Misael Urbina 17.0 R CF 2023 40
15 Jordan Balazovic 20.6 A RHP 2020 40
16 LaMonte Wade Jr 25.3 AAA LF 2019 40
17 Ben Rortvedt 21.6 A+ C 2021 40
18 Luis Rijo 20.6 A+ RHP 2022 40
19 Nick Gordon 23.5 AAA 2B 2019 40
20 Gilberto Celestino 20.2 AA CF 2021 40
21 Jovani Moran 22.0 AA LHP 2019 40
22 Devin Smeltzer 23.6 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Blayne Enlow 20.1 A RHP 2022 40
24 Akil Baddoo 20.7 A+ CF 2021 40
25 Luke Raley 24.6 AAA 1B 2020 40
26 Jorge Alcala 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
27 Gabriel Maciel 20.3 A CF 2022 40
28 Prelander Berroa 19.0 R RHP 2022 40
29 Cole Sands 21.8 A RHP 2021 40
30 Travis Blankenhorn 22.7 A+ 2B 2020 40
31 Stephen Gonsalves 24.8 MLB LHP 2019 40
32 Kai-Wei Teng 20.4 R RHP 2023 40
33 Ryan Costello 22.9 A+ 1B 2021 40
34 Landon Leach 19.8 R RHP 2023 40
35 Griffin Jax 24.4 AA RHP 2020 40
36 Carlos Aguiar 17.6 R OF 2023 35+
37 Johan Quezada 24.7 A+ RHP 2020 35+
38 DaShawn Keirsey 21.9 A CF 2022 35+
39 Charles Mack 19.4 R 2B 2023 35+
40 Michael Helman 22.9 A+ 2B 2022 35+
41 Lewin Diaz 22.4 A+ 1B 2021 35+
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65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from JSerra HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 50/55 40/50 60/60 40/50 55/55

Lewis was on the scouting radar early in his high school career in southern California, starring for one of the top programs in the country and showing above average tools at an early stage. Toward the end of showcase season, scouts started throwing around Derek Jeter comparisons, saying that Lewis had a similar frame with chance for a 70 bat, 55 raw power, and the possibility to stick at shortstop with some work. Others saw closer to a 50 or 55 bat and a center fielder, and his draft spring was up-and-down, with scouts that charted all of his games reporting his hitting stats were not strong, though the tools were all still present.

The Twins took him first overall and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a top tier of talent without a clear top prospect. Things have gone even better than expected for Lewis in pro ball, and he’s hit above league average at every stop and reached High-A at age 19 while improving defensively at shortstop. Most scouts think he can stick there, which was not the case even a year ago, and one long-time scout even said Lewis is ahead of where Jeter was defensively at the same stage. We’ll call it a 60 bat with 50 game power and 50 defense, but there’s ceiling for more in here.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Plum HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 55/60 35/55 50/45 45/50 60/60

Kirilloff comes from the Pittsburgh area, hardly a hotbed for talent, but he distinguished himself in the summer before his draft year despite a slightly quirky uppercut swing. By the end of the summer, scouts had seen enough from Kiriloff and Bo Bichette to convince them that these swings could work, and that Kirilloff and Bichette belonged in the top few rounds, with both continuing to exceedexpectations. Kirilloff went in the middle of the first round in 2016, and missed time immediately after playing his first 55 pro games with Tommy John surgery.

He came back for his first full season in 2018 and dominated both Low-A and High-A, hitting over .330 at both stops with 20 homers on the season and strikeout rates below league average. There’s some chance he is even more than just a 60 hitter with 55 or 60 power, which is what most scouts are projecting right now, with something like a 15-20% chance that Kirilloff turns into the next Joey Votto. There’s some disagreement about whether his 2018 season was him dominating pitching that didn’t challenge him, or if he has an approach that’s a little too aggressive and he just got away with it in 2018. Kirilloff is a fringy runner who’s an average defender in right field and has a plus arm, but he may bulk up and move to first base down the line, which would likely come with more power as well.

50 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/60 45/55 40/50 96-99 / 100

Graterol signed for $150,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela, got Tommy John surgery within a year, then got on the scouting radar a couple years later, when he was hitting the high-90s on the backfields in Ft. Myers, eventually hitting 100 mph. Before 2018, he had only made a handful of appearances outside of the DSL and GCL. His 2018 included eight sterling starts in Low-A and 11 very solid starts in Hi-A, all as a teenager.

Graterol has the making of a frontline starter, sitting 96-99 and hitting 100 mph often, mixing in a plus-flashing slider and a changeup that’s above average at its best. He’s a short strider and a bit of a dart-thrower, which is unusual for a pitcher that hits 100, but it helps Graterol throw more strikes than you would assume from a teenager hitting this kind of heat with an arm surgery in his past. The poor extension makes his velocity play lower than the radar gun readings, but with some incremental improvements in pitch execution and command, Graterol could shoot up our overall list, as he does more things like Sixto Sanchez than anyone else in the minors.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (MIN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 65/65 35/60 45/45 40/45 55/55

Larnach hit several balls in excess of 110 mph during Oregon State’s opening weekend of his draft season, and he ended up slugging .652 that year. We were all-in despite scout concerns about his lack of range in the outfield and fear that he might just be a DH. The gap between where we had Larnach on our pre-draft board (12) and where he went (20) was large enough that we wondered if we were too high. Then Larnach hit .303/.390/.500 in pro ball during the rest of the summer, and we could sleep again. He has huge raw power and doesn’t swing with violence or effort to generate it; it’s just there. We’re very optimistic about him hitting enough to profile in an outfield corner.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 45/55 20/45 55/50 45/55 60/60

Signed for an IFA franchise record $4 million, Javier was a “This is What They Look Like” amateur prospect, the skinny, athletically graceful, broad-shouldered teenager. Sometimes those players fill out too much to stay at shortstop, and end up as power-hitting third basemen; sometimes they don’t, and become starting shortstops with modest offensive ability. And sometimes, they develop in the Goldilocks Zone, stay at short, and make a big offensive impact. That last outcome’s existence, unlikely as it may be, puts prospects like Javier in a kind of rarified air, even when they haven’t yet done anything.

And Javier hasn’t. When should we start to worry about all the injuries? Since signing in 2015, Javier has played in just 50 games while dealing with various maladies. He was in street clothes during part of 2015 instructs for reasons unknown to us, he played in just nine games in 2016 due to a hamstring strain, was healthy in 2017, then missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. This spring, he strained his quad and did not break camp with an affiliate. His frame has filled out and looked explosive, and during the spring, he was noticeably stronger and more powerful than he was when he signed. Javier’s body, bat speed, swing foundation, and defensive fit is the stuff of stardom, but we have little-to-no data on important things like plate discipline and feel for contact, and the injury history has been troubling.

45 FV Prospects

6. Jhoan Duran, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 50/60 40/50 93-96 / 98

Duran seemingly drew lots of trade interest while with Arizona. Loose, lean, and wielding premium stuff, his name was rumored to be on some PTBNL lists before he was ultimately traded to Minnesota as part of the Eduardo Escobar deal in 2018. During his first few pro seasons, Duran’s velocity yo-yo’d a bit; he was in the upper-90s at times, while more 91-95 at others. He was also demoted from the Northwest League back to the AZL in 2017 for reasons seemingly unrelated to performance. The following spring, not only was Duran’s velocity more stable — in the 93-96 range — but he was throwing strikes and had more consistent secondary stuff.

While he can spin a good breaking ball, Duran’s best secondary pitch is his changeup, which he sells with electric arm speed. He worked with better angle after the Twins acquired him last summer, a change that improved the playability of his breaking ball without taking away from his changeup’s movement. Now a physically mature, 230-pound 21-year-old, Duran seems poised to take a bit of a leap and perhaps reach the Florida State League later in the year. He may end up with three impact pitches if his secondaries have yet another gear of quality left to claim, which makes him a threat for the top 100 list either later this year or next.

7. Jose Miranda, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (MIN)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 35/50 50/45 45/50 55/55

Miranda is a strong-bodied, multi-positional infielder with advanced feel for contact. He’ll be 20 for the first half of the season and has already reached Hi-A, leaving comically low strikeout rates in his wake as he has climbed the minor league ladder. His strikeout rate has hovered around 10% throughout his career despite Miranda having been about a year and a half younger than the average player at each minor league stop.

He may start trading some contact for power (his early-season strikeout and fly ball rates would seem to indicate this might be happening) but that may require more selectivity to work. Miranda’s swing is currently bottom-hand heavy and he doesn’t rip the bat through contact the way most power hitters do. He’s been fine putting quality, low-lying contact into play to his pull side so far, but may be best served to hit for more power, especially if he eventually moves off short. He’s a version of the bat control/up the middle types we so love here at FanGraphs, if a slightly lesser version right now due to his quieter results to date and his mature physicality.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 55/60 30/50 50/50 40/50 50/50

A thoroughly modern hitter, Severino has above-average ball/strike recognition for his age, and everything about his swing is geared for power. While he takes the occasional, gorgeous uppercut rip, it’s clear his feel for contact is undercooked from both sides of the plate, something that won’t be helped by a recent thumb fracture and ligament tear that may cost him most of this season. He’s increasingly likely to max out as a 40 hitter, or thereabouts, which makes it imperative that Severino learn to attack pitches he can drive and take his share of walks.

An amateur shortstop — he signed for $1.9 million with the Braves in their deep 2016 July 2nd class but was declared a free agent due to the Braves’ violations in the international realm, then signed for an additional $2.5 million bonus with Minnesota — Severino made all of seven 2019 starts at second base before hurting his thumb, and should settle in there. He could be a three true outcomes middle infielder à la Rickie Weeks, or peak Mark Bellhorn and Dan Uggla.

40+ FV Prospects

9. Brent Rooker, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Mississippi State (MIN)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 45/60 40/40 40/45 40/40

As a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, Rooker hit .324/.376/.528 with 11 homers at Mississippi State. The Twins drafted him in the 38th round. He didn’t sign, returned to school, hit .287/.496/.810 with 23 homers, stole 18 bases, and was drafted 35th overall. Nobody was totally sure what to make of such remarkable improvement, and Rooker lives in the dreaded right/right 1B/DH bucket for most evaluators, but he had among the best raw power in his draft class and emphatically torched the best conference in college baseball.

Since entering pro ball, Rooker has performed and moved quickly, slugging 22 homers at Double-A in his first full pro season. His breaking ball recognition is questionable, and may be exposed more this year at Triple-A Rochester. The swing and miss issues combined with the defensive limitations are a bit of a problem, but Rooker has more power and is more athletic than most other hitters of this statistical ilk (like the Trey Mancinis and C.J. Crons of the world), so we like his chances of being a major league contributor fairly soon. We just doubt that he’s an average or better everyday first baseman, and instead think he’s a corner platoon bat.

10. Ryan Jeffers, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from UNC Wilmington (MIN)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/55 35/50 40/40 40/50 55/55

Jeffers emerged from relative obscurity in 2018 at UNC Wilmington to climb into the first day of the draft with a strong spring. He has 55 raw power and arm strength, carrying tools that allow him to punish mistakes at the plate and throw out runners from behind it. His receiving skills will be a 45 or 50, so he likely can stick at catcher, while his contact skills are a notch below that. Jeffers has a strength-based, power-focused swing, and catchers will often lose some of their athleticism more quickly than guys at other positions, so we don’t see him contributing a big batting average or on-base percentage, but there is low-end regular upside.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2008 from Venezuela (PHI)
Age 27.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
80/80 40/40 45/45 20/20 40/40 50/50

Yes, Astudillo is still rookie-eligible even though he’s been part of the internet baseball zeitgeist for so long, the face of a movement that enjoys a certain of baseball’s many aesthetics. For our purposes, Astudillo forces us to consider how we define the hit tool without letting other skills bleed in, which leads us to all kinds of existential questions about traditional tool classifications. Eventually, your tools just are what your performance is, and Astudillo has accumulated about a month’s worth of freakish data that’s impossible to ignore. He has been, and this has been true his entire pro career, an elite K% (3%) and in-zone contact rate (96%) hitter, and were we to make a hierarchy of individual stats that indicate ability to hit, those would be at the top.

This thinking could be considered flawed. Jose Iglesias has had plus-plus contact rates throughout his career, but hits just .265 because he lacks strength. That’s a lack of power bleeding in to how the hit tool plays, but in his case we’d say the hit tool is still good. You could argue that, similar to power, we should have Raw Hit and Game Hit split into two tools. In that vein, Astudillo is again exemplary in the way his tools/skills interact, as his game power plays beneath his raw, because he can’t help himself but swing so damn much, and often the contact is sub-optimal. The Fat Ichiro moniker was bestowed upon Brett Wallace too soon; this is the genuine article.

Correctly dubbed “positionless” as a young prospect, Astudillo has ended up a passable glove at several of the places minor league managers tried to hide him in his early 20s. Minnesota has played him all over the field — catcher, first base, second base, third base, left field — and he’s okay everywhere. He had average catcher pop times in the big leagues last year. The “role” to expect here is that of a versatile corner bench bat. It’s just the strangest version of that, a husky super utility man, with maybe the best hand-eye coordination on the planet.

12. Luis Arraez, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 45/45 20/30 50/50 45/50 40/40

Back from a 2017 ACL tear, Arraez hit for characteristically high rates of contact in 2018. He’s a career .328 hitter in the minors and has carried high averages to the upper levels, as he now has about half a season of Double-A at-bats under his belt. The type of contact Arraez makes is unique. He employs a punchy, minimalist swing, and just kind of throws the bat head at the baseball, leading to lots of opposite field contact. It’s worked so far, and Arraez has hit for enough contact to outweigh the total lack of game power that results from this kind of approach. It’s unlikely that this is an Altuveian situation where all of a sudden there’s power, because Altuve was pulling the ball in the minors.

Mostly because his actions are quite good, Arraez fits fine at second base. He’s a thicker guy and has begun to see more time at other positions (mostly other infield spots), and versatility will enable a team to roster him even if the lack of power turns out to be a problem. He likely projects as a bat-first utility guy, but there’s a chance he makes sufficient contact to be a regular at second.

40 FV Prospects

13. Lewis Thorpe, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Australia (MIN)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 60/60 45/50 45/50 90-94 / 95

Two consecutive seasons lost to a combination of Tommy John rehab and mononucleosis highlight a robust, early-career injury history for Thorpe, who has been encouragingly healthy for the last two years. He works at the top of the zone with a low-90s fastball, and beneath it with a big, breaking 12-to-6 curveball used against left and right-handed hitters, and he bisects the plate horizontally with a cutter/slider and changeup. A 6% walk rate in 2018 was comfortably Thorpe’s career best, which may be real development or just something that will regress to Thorpe’s career mean. It’s No. 4 or 5 starter stuff from an arm whose injury history, which one could argue should soon be expunged, moves him toward the back of that FV group. He’s at Triple-A and may see the big leagues this year.

14. Misael Urbina, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 25/50 55/50 40/50 40/45

Urbina was one of the more advanced bats in his July 2 signing class from both a bat control and physical development perspective. He was also one of the youngest. Currently an above-average runner, there’s a fair chance he ends up in left field due to a lack of top-end speed, though it might depend on how his body develops. Urbina’s power projection is somewhat limited by his size, which may be an issue if he does eventually move to a corner. It would mean he would have to be a high-end contact hitter to profile as an impact big leaguer, but that seems like it’s in play because Urbina has so many promising bat-to-ball traits — timing, hand-eye coordination, all-fields feel — at such a young age.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from St. Martin HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/50 40/50 91-94 / 96

After two years in the GCL (another Canadian high schooler further down this list was developed the same way), Balazovic spent the spring of 2018 in Extended and then skipped the Appy League and went right to Low-A. He dominated there, striking out 78 in 61.2 innings while walking just 18. He throws an unusually high number of strikes for such a lanky, young, cold-weather arm with a somewhat violent delivery, and he gets nasty vertical action on his breaking ball despite a mediocre spin rate.

There’s still some visual discomfort with Balazovic’s mechanics, but he’s throwing strikes early in his career and hasn’t been injured. He’ll move up this list with a full year of innings at his 2018 level of performance. For now he at least projects as a reliever, but has a puncher’s chance to be a No. 4 starter.

Drafted: 9th Round, 2015 from Maryland (MIN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 45/45 30/35 50/50 55/55 40/40

Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here. And with Wade at Triple-A and on the 40-man, he may get his first big league opportunity this season.

17. Ben Rortvedt, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Verona HS (WI) (MIN)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/40 40/30 40/45 55/55

The beefcake Wisconsinite was sent back to the Midwest League to start 2018, thrived for six weeks there, then was promoted to Hi-A for the rest of the year. An improved receiver with a good arm, Rortvedt now projects as a passable catcher after looking kind of rough back there as an amateur and young pro. He has raw power befitting one of baseball’s more impressive physiques (Yandy Diaz is a good body comp) but hasn’t been able to get to it in games. A more pull-happy approach may unlock dormant game power, and the start of Rortvedt’s 2019 indicates it might be coming. He projects as a backup for now, with a chance the batted ball profile changes in a relevant way.

18. Luis Rijo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 45/50 45/60 90-94 / 95

Part of Minnesota’s return from New York for Lance Lynn, Rijo is a hyper-efficient strike thrower whose curveball moves like a Wiffle ball, seemingly floating as it approaches the plate before it begins to bend and dive away from right-handed hitters. Because it’s a slower, loopy pitch, it may not miss bats against upper-level hitters, but it’s hard to square up because of how much depth it has, and Rijo locates it where he wants. So, too, can he spot his low-90s fastball where his catcher asks for it, working up at the letters and to both corners of the plate at will. His ceiling will likely be limited by stuff quality — though only 20, Rijo is physically mature and unlikely to grow into much more velocity — but the command makes him a high-probability starter and one who could move quickly.

19. Nick Gordon, 2B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Olympia HS (FL) (MIN)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 30/45 55/55 45/50 55/55

Seen as a lock to stick at shortstop while he was an amateur, Gordon has been error-prone there for several years and saw more time at second in 2018. He projects there for most scouts. The movement in his batted ball profile has plateaued (Gordon began his career as an all-fields, groundball hitter but began pulling and lifting the ball more starting in 2016), but might still produce more power than is usual at second base right now, even if it’s generally middling. (Gordon raps on the side under the alter ego “G Cinco,” which is also the name of an ASU-educated “Artist Entrepreneur,” so one of the two of them may have a copyright issue on their hands.) Gordon’s star seems to have fallen quite a bit, and instead of projecting as a shortstop with some pop, he’ll now need to hit enough to play second everyday or risk being squeezed out of a roster spot. He began 2019 on the IL with a digestive issue.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 35/40 20/30 60/60 45/60 60/60

International scouts billed Celestino’s defense and contact skills as advanced, and Houston handled promoting him as if that were true before trading him to Minnesota as part of the Ryan Pressly deal. He spent the last few weeks of his first pro season up from the DSL, but was liberated from the complex the following summer and sent right to the Appy League at 18, then the Penn League the following year, before the trade. And Celestino has hit during that time, just not usually for power, as he didn’t add much raw strength during his late teens. He’s only 20 but has a modest, tweener frame and probably needs to develop into a special defender, a special hitter, or both, in order to profile everyday.

21. Jovani Moran, LHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2015 from Carlos Beltran Academy (PR) (MIN)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 55/60 40/45 90-93 / 94

Drafted as an arm action/athleticism project out of Puerto Rico, Moran’s velocity has grown significantly since his high school days; he’s developed a plus, maybe plus-plus changeup that has about 15 mph of velocity difference off his fastball. He’s amassed 174 strikeouts in 123 pro innings, mostly via multi-inning relief outings. Lefties with changeups are well-positioned for when three-batter minimums are put in place for relievers. Now at Double-A, Moran might factor into the Twins’ bullpen picture this year. He projects as a middle reliever.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (LAD)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/50 55/60 55/60 50/55 87-91 / 92

Most pitchers tuck their gloves in by their ribs when they disconnect and begin to clear their front sides; Smeltzer’s glove extends way out away from his body, the start of one of baseball’s funkiest deliveries. Repertoire depth, plus fastball and breaking ball spin, and efficient strike-throwing all mix with the mechanical deception to enable Smeltzer’s success despite a lack of velocity. He’s long been projected as a reliever but continues to start in the minors, and he’s had some dominant outings in addition to the low walk rates, and his spin rate has ticked up pretty significantly each of the last two seasons, which is rare. He may end up in a multi-inning role of some kind, as his strange mechanics would certainly give hitters a weird look one time through the lineup.

Smeltzer was struck in the head by a comeback in mid-April. He walked off the field under his own power but it’s unclear what his timetable for return is at list publication.

23. Blayne Enlow, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from St. Amat HS (LA) (MIN)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/60 40/50 40/50 90-94 / 96

Your standard high school projection arm with a breaking ball, Enlow is back at Low-A to start 2019. Like most pitchers of this ilk, fastball command and the development of a third pitch stand between Enlow and industry confidence that he’s a starter. That stuff hasn’t developed just yet, but Enlow is still just 20. If that doesn’t happen, he’s likely to be a fine reliever.

24. Akil Baddoo, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Salem HS (GA) (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/45 60/60 40/50 40/40

Baddoo has some promising physical ingredients — speed, raw power — and three consecutive seasons of plus walk rates. For a player who was considered raw coming out of high school, his numbers at his age and level combination are compelling, and he’ll be a 20 year old at Hi-A all year. Visual evaluations of his feel to hit temper enthusiasm for his overall profile, as the game power manifests itself in a niche, dead-pull manner that upper-level pitching should be able to avoid. Scouts think he’s more of a platoon or fourth outfielder, while we think it’s likely that teams using a pro model will like him more than that because of his age and peripherals.

25. Luke Raley, 1B
Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from Lake Erie College (OH) (LAD)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/45 55/50 45/50 60/60

Raley is plus runner underway despite his size, and has big raw power that the Dodgers did well to tease out of him in games before trading him to Minnesota as part of the Brian Dozier deal last year. The small-school pedigree helps balance skepticism surrounding Raley’s performance (20 Double-A homers at age 23 last year) due to his age, and he projects to be a player quite similar to Daniel Palka or Scott Schebler.

26. Jorge Alcala, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 40/45 40/40 93-96 / 98

Acquired from Houston as part of the Ryan Pressly trade, Alcala has reached Double-A as a starter despite having been projected as a reliever for almost his entire pro career. Fastball control and a viable changeup have both been elusive, and you could argue Alcala’s issues repeating/locating also impact the way his slider plays, though it does have nasty late bite. He throws really hard — typically in the mid-90s, peaking above that — and has a great build. It makes sense to give him starter reps until he’s needed in the majors, since it means more chances for him to refine his secondary stuff and control. He’s a high-probability middle reliever, but he has a set-up man’s arm strength.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Brazil (ARI)
Age 20.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 30/30 20/20 70/70 45/55 50/50

A tiny speedster, Maciel’s build is relatively unprojectable, but one can still project on most of his skills because he was only taught baseball’s basics while growing up in Brazil, and hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long. His game has some coherent small-ball elements already, as he took quickly to bunting and putting awkward contact into play, which, because of his speed, enables him to reach against bad, low-level defenses.

There’s so little power here that Maciel likely projects as a fourth outfielder, but his feel for contact is impressive for someone of his background and seemingly insufficient physicality, and if he ends up with a 6 or 7 bat, we might be talking about a regular.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 45/55 35/45 92-94 / 96

Tilt Berroa’s cap another 15 degrees and he’s a dead on-mound ringer for Fernando Rodney. Right now, he just throws tailing heat past hitters, but he has some nascent changeup feel and his arm speed and loose, rhythmic delivery makes one comfortable projecting on the changeup. His breaking ball is good enough to miss bats when it’s located. Berroa hasn’t harnessed his limbs or his release point yet, so you have to project pretty heavily on his command to buy that the slider will play one day, and that he’ll throw enough strikes to start. If that happens, he could be a No. 4 starter. If it doesn’t, a bullpen role will be determined by his changeup quality.

29. Cole Sands, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Florida State (MIN)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 35/45 91-93 / 95

Sands’ older brother Carson was a high pick by the Cubs, and prep teammate Cole Ragans was a high pick by Texas from a historically-strong prep pitching staff. The younger Sands had a similar profile as a prep prospect as he did coming out of Florida State: above average stuff and average command that varied by the day more than scouts wanted, with no true plus pitch. Sands had biceps tendonitis just before the draft, which created some uncertainty and ultimately appears to have pushed him down a bit on draft day; he signed for third round money in the fifth round. He projects as a fourth starter type.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Pottsville HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/55 30/45 40/40 40/40 50/50

Though he’s gotten thick and stiff as his body has matured, the Twins continue to run Blankenhorn out at second and third base in addition to left field. He’s a 40 infield defender but as the club has shown with Astudillo, there are ways of hiding players like this in order to shoehorn their bat into the lineup. His swing is a bit grooved but Blankenhorn’s hands work well, and he has strength-driven doubles power. It’s not enough to profile everyday at one of the positions Blankenhorn is capable of playing regularly, but he should turn into a role-playing lefty bench bat.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 213 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 45/45 55/55 45/45 87-90 / 92

Gonsalves cruised through the lower levels of the minors with three quality secondary offerings and a fastball that played above its velocity due to deception and a helpful spin axis. As he reached the upper levels, his ability to locate plateaued, and some would say it’s just gone backwards. His upper-80s fastball is vulnerable when it’s not in the right places, so Gonsalves has become a little walk-prone and gives up loud contact when he makes mistakes in the zone. Unless he can reclaim an ability to locate his fastball where it plays best (up near the letters), he’ll need to work heavily off his bevy of quality secondary offerings to get through a lineup multiple times. He’s on the IL to start the year (forearm) and looks like a No. 5 starter or low-leverage long reliever.

32. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Taiwan (MIN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/55 35/45 90-93 / 95

Of the $3 million in bonus pool money the Twins suddenly had lying around after they voided Jelfy Marte’s deal due to vision issues, they spent $2.5 million on Yunior Severino and $500,000 on Teng, who pitched at an athletics high school in Taiwan. His arm action is a little rough, and Teng’s lower slot makes it hard for him to get on top of his curveball consistently, but he’s very well balanced over his blocking leg and otherwise has a smooth delivery. At this age and size, it’s possible no more than the low-90s velo will come, but that might be enough if that curveball matures, because Teng’s changeup is also very good. His timeline to the bigs has more to do with Minnesota’s need to add him to the 40-man, which means we probably won’t see him in the big leagues until Teng is comfortably in his mid-20s, even if he makes progress. But he might be a No. 4 or 5 starter one day.

33. Ryan Costello, 1B
Drafted: 31th Round, 2017 from Central Connecticut State (SEA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 30/50 50/50 40/40 50/55 50/50

A great small-school find by Seattle, Costello had a strong junior year after doing nothing as an underclassman, in part due to injury. Three strong months into his first full pro season, Costello had more than 40 extra-base hits and a 12% walk rate and had become of interest to eyeball scouts. A year after he was a 31st round pick, Seattle traded him in the Zach Duke deal. The Twins pushed him to a more age-apprpriate level immediately. He’s now an interesting sleeper 1B/3B bat, one who could at least play a corner utility/pinch hitting role.

34. Landon Leach, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Pickering HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 40/50 40/50 40/50 91-93 / 94

The assumption that Leach, a giant Canadian kid who was still just 17 on draft day, would take a while to develop was correct. He repeated the GCL last year, missed some time with injury, and is back in Fort Myers for Extended again this spring. He’s a low-90s sinker baller with middling secondary stuff, but he repeats his delivery and remains a teenage developmental project from a cold climate. He has depth starter stuff right now and you have to project heavily on the change and command to see more than a backend starter, but it’s possible.

35. Griffin Jax, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Air Force (MIN)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 50/55 40/50 90-93 / 95

It seemed like the runway was clear for Jax to begin a pro career after graduating from Air Force. But about a month before he walked, the Department of Defense began once again requiring at least two years of active duty before graduates could apply to serve out their time in reserve status for the purpose of playing pro sports. Then baseball was reinstated as an Olympic sport, and Jax found an avenue to pro ball through the World Class Athlete Program, a military unit focused on training for the Games in the two years leading up to competition. So Jax, having sorted out some arcane rules about Air Force personnel being unable to have second streams of income, is technically an Air Force lieutenant training for the 2020 Olympics, while the Twins pay for his development, but don’t pay him.

Jax was 89-94 throughout the 2018 Fall League, with his secondary stuff about average, flashing above (especially the change). He could be a fifth starter, but if his fastball ticks up in short relief, he’ll fit in a mid-inning bullpen role. It’s unclear what happens to Jax and his military commitment after the 2020 games conclude.

35+ FV Prospects

36. Carlos Aguiar, OF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

A body-beautiful outfielder with as good-looking a swing, Aguiar played all last year as a 16-year-old in the DSL. The best of his sweet, uppercut swings have flourishes of Ken Griffey, Jr.’s beautiful finish. The cement is drier on Aguiar’s body than is typical for a prospect this age, but he has some pop, feel for lifting the ball, and he held his head above water despite being one of the younger guys in the DSL last year. He’s an interesting, long-term corner outfield project.

37. Johan Quezada, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 40/45 94 / 0

After parts of five seasons in rookie or short-season ball, and one on the shelf for a shoulder surgery, Quezada finally made his full-season debut in 2018, just a few days shy of his 24th birthday. He came back throwing fire, sitting comfortably in the 94-98 range. An imposing mound presence at a towering 6-foot-6, Quezada creates extreme downhill plane on his fastball and vertical action on his slider, which aids its vertical depth in spite of a paltry spin rate. He’s understandably behind due to his limited pro workload, but he’s a candidate for quick promotion before he breaks again, and seems like a potential set-up type if the slider improves now that Quezada is finally pitching and developing again.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Utah (MIN)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 30/45 55/55 60/60 45/50 45/45

Toward the end of the 2017 college season, Keirsey chased a Hunter Bishop flyball to the warning track and collided at high speed with the center field wall, fracturing and dislocating his hip. He couldn’t run for four months. It meant no Cape Cod League the summer before his draft year, and uncertainty that his best physical attribute — his speed — was gone. Though he didn’t look quite as explosive early the following year, Keirsey played his entire junior season and led the Pac-12 in doubles before signing as a slightly over slot fourth rounder. He currently projects as a bench outfielder whose medical might be grisly, but if more of his explosiveness returns, he could climb this list.

39. Charles Mack, 2B
Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Williamsville East HS (NY) (MIN)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 20/45 45/50 50/50 40/50 40/40

After the Twins got slightly under slot deals done with a two early college draftees, they were free to spread over slot money throughout the rest of their draft, which included a $500,000 bonus for Mack in the sixth round. A Northeast prep bat with a stiff, but well-timed uppercut swing, Mack has a good chance to hit for gap power and stay on the infield somewhere. He’s relatively mature physically, but already has good power for his age. He didn’t hit well after signing, but the leap from New York high school to pro ball is a doozy.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from Texas A&M (MIN)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Helman’s cacophonous post-draft summer — .361/.409/.510 — caused some re-evaluation after he had just gotten about $200,000 as an 11th rounder a few months earlier. We’re still not all-in. His 2018 line included a .386 BABIP against competition beneath what he faced in college, he didn’t walk much, and visual evaluations yielded mixed feelings about his ability to sustain anything approaching that kind of game power. Helman is remarkably short to the baseball and tough to beat with velocity because his hands work in such a tight little circle. A more athletic, full-bodied swing may yield more pop, which, if it doesn’t take too much from his ability to make contact, would be a meaningful improvement. Realistically, he might be a utility infielder with bat and speed. He’s at Hi-A and soon turns 23.

41. Lewin Diaz, 1B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 30/50 60/60 45/40 45/50 50/50

Diaz didn’t perform in his first try at the Florida State League, reaching base at just a .255 clip before his season ended with a thumb fracture, which required surgery. Don’t be fooled by his unconventional swing; he has feel to hit and feel for lifting the ball in the air regularly. But too often, Diaz swings at whatever he’s offered, limiting the quality of his contact and his ability to reach base. At first base, that might be a problem. Scouts have mixed opinions about his body and how it projects into his mid-to-late-20s, which is when Diaz will likely be on the 40-man fringe, perhaps a fit for some clubs in need of, or with room for, a big-bodied masher on their 40-man. The raw power and feel for lift/contact are enticing, but a more sentient approach would be nice.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-level Depth
Zack Littell, RHP
Jake Reed, RHP
Alex Robinson, LHP
Kohl Stewart, RHP
Andrew Vasquez, LHP
Tyler Jay, LHP

Several members of this group will likely help Minnesota this year, as most teams need about 20 pitchers to get through a season. Littell saw some big league time last year. He’s 23, has a low-90s fastball, and an average cutter, curveball, and change. He projects as a No. 5/6 starter. Reed is a three-pitch reliever with a funky delivery who has calmed down significantly since college. Robinson throws in the upper-90s when healthy. He and Reed are middle relief types. Stewart throws in the mid-90s but has below-average command and fringe secondary stuff, except for his breaking ball, which is average. Vasquez throws a ton of curveballs and is a fringe 40-man lefty. Jay’s stuff hasn’t quite returned since his many injuries, but he’s still a multi-pitch lefty with average stuff, and that seems rosterable.

Sleeper Arms
Edwar Colina, RHP
Dakota Chalmers, RHP
Ryley Widell, LHP
Regi Grace, RHP
Josh Winder, RHP

Colina is a thick 21-year-old with below-average command. He’ll touch 96 and has an average four-pitch mix. After a strong second half of 2018, he’s hurt to start this year. Chalmers has been 93-96 with a plus change and curveball in the past, but he’s had severe strike-throwing issues and isn’t on an affiliate roster right now. Widell is a lefty with three average pitches. Grace was one of two Mississippi high school kids signed to overslot deals in the top 10 rounds. His delivery is kind of rough, but he’ll show you 90-93 with feel for spin. Winder is a spin efficient righty with average stuff that plays up.

Sleeper Bats
Jeferson Morales, C
Willie Joe Garry, Jr., OF

Morales is currently dealing with a left knee injury of unknown severity, but he’s an athletic catcher with plate discipline and speed. Garry was the second of the two overslot high schoolers taken late on Day 2 last year. He’s a lefty outfield bat with some power and a good frame.

System Overview

This is clearly one of the deeper systems in baseball, and has a few potential stars at the very top including a recent No. 1 overall pick, and yet it’s not discussed as often as the other great systems in the game. Perhaps this is because the big league team has a chance to compete, which makes us collectively fixate on the Twins’ October chances, compared to other clubs with good systems that have either pointed toward their coherent rebuild rather than dwell on a bad big league roster (San Diego), or “need” the farm to constantly feed cost-controlled players up the ladder (Tampa Bay). It might also just be media neglect.

It’s incredible the system is as good as it is considering how little the Twins have done in the Dominican Republic over the last several years. Only two of the 40 FV or better players on here are original Twins signees from the DR. Indeed, they’ve done much better in odd places like Australia or Eastern Asia than in the Dominican. That may change now that they’ve made some personnel changes in International Scouting. They’ve also done very well in Venezuela despite abandoning their complex in 2016 due to the country’s ongoing turmoil.

Let’s watch the next Twins draft to see if their 2018 strategy (two underslot college mashers early, then a bunch of overslot picks throughout the rest of the draft’s first two days) becomes a multi-year ideology.


Top 27 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Kansas City Royals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Royals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Seuly Matias 20.6 A+ RF 2022 45+
2 Brady Singer 22.7 A+ RHP 2020 45+
3 Daniel Lynch 22.4 A+ LHP 2021 45+
4 MJ Melendez 20.4 A+ C 2022 45
5 Nick Pratto 20.5 A+ 1B 2022 45
6 Khalil Lee 20.8 AA RF 2020 45
7 Nicky Lopez 24.1 AAA SS 2019 45
8 Jackson Kowar 22.5 A+ RHP 2021 45
9 Kris Bubic 21.7 A LHP 2021 40+
10 Kyle Isbel 22.1 A+ RF 2021 40+
11 Richard Lovelady 23.8 MLB LHP 2019 40+
12 Meibrys Viloria 22.2 MLB C 2019 40
13 Daniel Tillo 22.8 A+ LHP 2021 40
14 Scott Blewett 23.0 AAA RHP 2020 40
15 Yefri Del Rosario 19.6 A RHP 2021 40
16 Kelvin Gutierrez 24.6 AAA 3B 2019 40
17 Emmanuel Rivera 22.8 AA 3B 2021 40
18 Foster Griffin 23.7 AAA LHP 2019 40
19 Gerson Garabito 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
20 Carlos Hernandez 22.1 A RHP 2022 40
21 Yohanse Morel 18.6 R RHP 2024 35+
22 Austin Cox 22.0 A LHP 2020 35+
23 Brewer Hicklen 23.2 A+ CF 2021 35+
24 Omar Florentino 17.5 R SS 2024 35+
25 D.J. Burt 23.5 AA 2B 2020 35+
26 Josh Staumont 25.3 AAA RHP 2019 35+
27 Janser Lara 22.7 A RHP 2021 35+
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45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 40/60 50/40 40/45 70/70

With few exceptions (Joey Gallo is one) even the most whiff-prone big leaguers struck out less than Matias (34% career K%) when they were in the minors. But Matias’ physicality and bat speed are so supreme, the gap between his talent and that of most players so obvious, that there’s a chance he can be one of those exceptions, even if it’s in a streaky, inconsistent manner like Domingo Santana or Carlos Gomez. As a teen, Seuly was already posting exit velocities on par with burly, Quad-A type hitters. We hope he learns to take a walk, but “Randal Grichuk with more raw power” is a good player, so we’re cautiously optimistic that the Royals at least have a contributing big leaguer here, and a potential superstar if there’s contact/approach refinement, which is admittedly easier said than done.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Florida (KCR)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 50/60 91-94 / 95

Well-regarded in high school in part because of his very loose, athletic, albeit somewhat unusual delivery, the Blue Jays drafted Singer in the 2015 second round. Negotiations broke down and Singer went to Florida. After an uneven but promising freshman year in the bullpen, Singer’s command improved and he carved up SEC lineups for the next two years. There’s plenty to pick apart here if you want to: Singer’s stuff still isn’t loud, he doesn’t get many whiffs from pro level hitters, his delivery turns off some scouts, and his breaking ball often lacks bite.

Even scouts who like Singer think he has limited upside, but the results he got in the SEC and his long track record of durability are compelling. He has great feel for pitching and, we think, future plus command. Singer sneers and goes right at hitters, he’s really competitive, and is likely to move up the pro ladder quickly. On talent, he’s a No. 4 or No. 4/5 type of starter, but the potential to eat tons of innings, and therefore be more valuable than that, seems higher than usual here, too.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Virginia (KCR)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 50/50 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-95 / 97

On the Cape and in the first half of his junior spring, Lynch looked like a solid third round prospect, a pitchability lefty sitting 88-92 mph with mostly average stuff, and above-average feel and command. In the month or so leading up to the draft, Lynch’s velo ticked up, and down the stretch he sat 92-94, touching 95 mph deep into starts, with an assortment of offspeed pitches that all flashed above-average. The track record of Virginia arms is concerning, but Lynch seemed less beholden to the issues traditionally associated with their prospects, with some scouts considering him endearingly rebellious.

He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that all flash above-average, with the slider occasionally flashing plus. He was 93-95 this spring, so the velo uptick has held for nearly a year now. He’s a potential No. 4 if this continues, maybe more if it’s just the start of something.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Westminster Christian HS (FL) (KCR)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 30/45 45/40 45/55 60/60

Opinions regarding Melendez’s defense have been surprisingly mixed considering he was an adolescent catching prodigy. Team framing metrics have him graded as an average receiver, and he’s added mass since high school, when he was lean and lithe, so he is no longer quite as twitchy, but he’s not really a risk to move off the position. Instead, where it once seemed like Melendez might turn into an elite defender, it now appears he’ll merely be good.

That mass has added power, though, the kind of power that would certainly profile everyday were Melendez able to get to it in games. He strikes out a lot, enough that teams are concerned about it. He was on early drafts of our Top 100 but was one of the prospects we were most often told to move down when we sourced teams for feedback. He could be an everyday catcher with power, but there’s bust risk because of the contact issues, to say nothing of the grisly recent history of teenage catching prospects going bust.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Huntington Beach HS (CA) (KCR)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/55 30/50 40/40 50/60 60/60

Pratto went from two-way duty as a high school senior, to Low-A teenager in his first full pro season, and he performed admirably. Pratto hit .280/.343/.443 with 14 homers at Lexington, largely thanks to a hot August. He also stole a surprising 22 bases, but based on how thick and muscular he looked during 2019 spring training, that seems unlikely to continue.

Some of the pre-draft notions that Pratto had elite plate discipline (part of why he generated some irresponsible Joey Votto comps at the time) seem false now that we have a larger sample of data to look at. It makes it more important that Pratto get to all his power so he can profile at first, something made even more imperative by his mediocre, early-career contact rates. We like his chances of doing that and becoming a fine everyday first baseman who adds value on defense.

6. Khalil Lee, RF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Flint Hill HS (VA) (KCR)
Age 20.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/60 35/50 55/50 45/50 60/60

Lee’s 2018 Fall League showing was so poor that it forced us to consider a serious re-evaluation, even though we often toss out bad AFL looks because of how fatigued some of the players are. The quality of his at-bats and the senselessly aggressive hacks Lee would take were not traits of physical exhaustion. Ultimately, we left Lee where we had him since he suddenly grew into power during his senior year of high school.

Once a little two-way LHP/CF prospect, he’s now a right fielder with power, who walks and is currently stealing bases. A 40 runner from home to first, Lee runs better than that under way but was too brazen a thief early in his career and made too many outs on the bases. He got better at picking his spots last year. His contact rates are concerning, but they’re offset by the walks and thump enough that we think he projects as a solid-average regular in right field.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Creighton (KCR)
Age 24.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 40/40 20/30 55/55 50/55 55/55

Lopez is a slick defensive shortstop who walked more than he struck out at Double- and Triple-A last year. Those traits make him very interesting and perhaps someone we aren’t properly enthused about. He’s small and has very little raw power, but Lopez’s feel for contact is so good that he ends up with sneaky, in-game doubles pop. His three-year ZiPS projections have him at nearly two annual WAR, which means he arguably belongs on our Top 100 list. His realistic ceiling is that of an average regular, something that may be harder to accomplish if Adalberto Mondesi‘s presence forces him to second base, where the offensive bar is higher.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Florida (KCR)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 40/50 55/60 40/50 93-96 / 98

Kowar had a seven-figure asking price coming out of high school, which was just out of reach of what clubs were willing to commit from their spending pools. He was set to head to Clemson until a late coaching change caused him to reconsider his commitment, and the Tigers ultimately lost him to Florida (and Cal Raleigh to Florida State). Kowar’s velocity ticked up before he even played in an official game for the Gators, sitting 93-95 and hitting 97 mph in preseason scrimmages before his freshman year. He kept that velocity throughout his college career and developed a plus changeup.

The two issues for Kowar are his very short stride, which causes his velocity to play down, and his breaking ball, which is not great. It’s still most often a below average pitch, with curveball velocity and three-quarters slider shape. Cogent pitch design may help the pitch, or indicate the Royals should just scrap it altogether and try something like a cutter or slider. These issues are almost identical to Luke Weaver’s coming out of Florida State; he’s appeared to have solved those at times, though not at others.

40+ FV Prospects

9. Kris Bubic, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Stanford (KCR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 55/60 40/50 89-92 / 94

A dominant junior year would have had Bubic in the late first round mix, but his control backed up, especially late in the year. Though he only throws 87-91, his fastball plays well in the zone as his delivery (which is similar to Clayton Kershaw‘s) creates tough angle on the pitch. Bubic’s best pitch is his changeup and it’s most effective when he’s gotten ahead of hitters, which he often did not last year. When he’s throwing strikes, Bubic looks like a solid No. 4 or 5 big league starter. He began the year at Low-A Lexington, and seems a likely mid-year promotion candidate if he pitches well there.

10. Kyle Isbel, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from UNLV (KCR)
Age 22.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 30/50 50/50 45/55 50/50

Isbel hit .319 and .290 as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, and then grew into a new grade of power in his junior year while maintaining his contact skills and taking advantage of pitchers’ newfound hesitance to attack him in the zone. None of his tools are especially loud, but Isbel does several things fairly well and he has a slight chance to play a passable big league center field. If he moves to a corner, he might need a plus bat to profile, but that seems possible given how good his feel to hit was as an amateur. He could be a well-rounded everyday outfielder even without a plus tool.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from Kennesaw State (KCR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/40 50/55 91-95 / 96

Surface-level evaluations of Lovelady’s stuff show two above-average pitches in a mid-90s fastball and long-arcing slider, but those grow into true plus offerings once you factor in some of his mechanical traits. His lower arm slot, a release point approaching Josh Hader’s unique spot, creates very odd angle on his stuff. It’s especially tough on lefties, who have a .224 OBP against Lovelady each of the last two years. Lovelady also has better command, especially breaking ball command, than most relievers. He’ll be able to get swings and misses from righties by way of back foot sliders, and he can beat them in the zone with his heater.

We put 40 FVs on two-pitch, upper-level relievers like this, but the seemingly significant impact of Lovelady’s delivery, combined with what looks like will be multi-inning usage, gives him a chance to be one of the more valuable relievers in baseball.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Colombia (KCR)
Age 22.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/45 20/20 40/45 70/70

The Salvador Perez injury makes it much more likely that we get an extended look at Viloria with the big club this year after he was given a 10-game sip last September. There’s some power here, but Viloria has to sell out to get to it in games because his swing’s not naturally geared for lift. Instead, he leans into a contact-oriented approach, and generates his power through strength in his hands.

On defense, Viloria has one hell of an arm, but the rest of his catching traits are only okay. He falls a little short of what it would take to consider him a regular due to issues on both sides of the ball, but he’s still only 22 and we think he’s at least a high-probability backup.

13. Daniel Tillo, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Iowa Western JC (KCR)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 40/50 40/50 92-95 / 97

Tillo is a recent velo spike guy who has been up to 97 this spring, but he was often into the mid-90s last summer. Both of his secondaries are capable of missing bats, but he has to locate his slider for that pitch to be effective, and his general feel for the craft is lacking, so that may never happen consistently. Despite his long arm action, Tillo also has a diving changeup that hitters will swing over the top of, or make awkward contact with. It’s No. 4 starter stuff, but we think Tillo’s control means he’ll likely move to the bullpen eventually.

14. Scott Blewett, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Baker HS (NY) (KCR)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/45 45/55 91-94 / 96

Huge extension adds about 2 mph of perceived velocity to Blewett’s fastball, and he leans on it heavily. Blewett was a cold weather prep arm who needed a lot of grooming and though none of his pitches are plus, he’s developed enough to be considered a high-probability backend rotation piece. He’s going to throw a lot of strikes and locate his breaking ball in spots that hitters can’t do much with. His big, sturdy frame might eat a ton of innings while Kansas City rebuilds.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ATL)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 35/50 91-94 / 96

One of the more talented prospects cut loose by the Braves during their international scandal, Del Rosario’s fastball creeps into the mid-90s, and he has a good curveball and a sturdy build that is admittedly less projectable than is typical for a 19-year-old. His strike-throwing took a step forward in 2018, but his profile includes fairly significant relief risk. He spent all of 2018 at Low-A Lexington but has dealt with a biceps issue this spring, and isn’t currently at an affiliate. He’s in that No. 4 or 5 starter/potential late-inning reliever area as far as stuff goes, and is probably several years away from the majors.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (WAS)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/50 35/40 40/40 50/55 60/60

The Royals lauded Gutierrez’s glove after acquiring him, going so far as to say that they think he could handle shortstop if they needed him to. At least in our longest stretch of in-person evaluation of Gutierrez, he has looked just okay at third base, and saw time at first.

The bat-to-ball skills are real. He’s a career .286 hitter in the minors and has reached base at a .346 clip. A lack of game power probably means Gutierrez fits better in a multi-positional reserve role than as a regular at third or first base. He appears athletic enough to handle the corner outfield spots, and it makes sense to give him time there in the near future.

Drafted: 19th Round, 2015 from Universidad Interamericana HS (PR) (KCR)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/50 30/45 45/45 45/50 55/55

We’re proponents of Rivera’s bat; his swing is compact, he has barrel control, and he is very difficult to beat on the inner half. He’s not a very good defensive infielder, however, and doesn’t have the power to profile at places further down the defensive spectrum. It’s natural to wonder if he can catch, and Rivera has a catcherly build, but we just don’t know if he can, and his arm strength isn’t a obvious fit for the position. He may end up playing a corner bench role, basically the one we have projected for Gutierrez one spot ahead of him in this system, but we’d have to see him play other positions before feeling confident in that projection. He only really does one thing, but it’s the thing we think is most important.

18. Foster Griffin, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from First Academy HS (FL) (KCR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 55/55 50/55 50/55 87-91 / 93

There have been stretches during Griffin’s pro career when either his command or velocity have slipped a tad, and he’s been knocked around during those stretches. When both are fine, he’s a good pitchability lefty who feeds hitters a steady diet of secondary pitches. Often, this type of hurler becomes Tommy Milone, but Griffin’s curveball is a little better than that (though, Milone has a good cutter), so we like his chances of playing a No. 5 starter role soon.

19. Gerson Garabito, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/60 45/50 45/50 90-93 / 94

He doesn’t throw all that hard, but Garabito has an impact breaking ball and, other than in 2018, a history of throwing lots of strikes. Other than his plunging 12-6 curveball, Garabito’s stuff is very average and his fastball may be vulnerable once hitters have seen it a few times. It might make him more viable in a multi-inning relief role where he can throw the curveball a ton and use the fastball as a change of pace pitch.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (KCR)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 50/55 40/45 93-95 / 97

Hernandez is a high-probability fifth starter/middle reliever depending on how his breaking ball develops. He throws hard, he has a good change up, and he’s an inelegant, but relatively efficient, strike thrower. We tend to think he’ll just end up blowing heat past people in relief, but Hernandez is still only 22 and it makes sense to let him work on his breaking stuff on a starter’s pitch count in the hope that something improves.

35+ FV Prospects

21. Yohanse Morel, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (WAS)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Morel had just arrived in the U.S. last year when the Nationals sent him to Kansas City as part of the Kelvin Herrera trade. At age 17, Morel performed against older competition while being asked to adjust to a new country and parent organization at the same time. His stuff was still strong in the fall, where he was 90-94 with a mid-80s, split-action changeup that was often plus. He’s not physically projectable, but he’s athletic and has some traits typical of sinker/changeup-centric rotation pieces.

22. Austin Cox, LHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Mercer (KCR)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Cox is a small school lefty with low-90s heat (he’ll touch 94 but sit 88-91 later in starts) and a breaking ball with bat-missing vertical action. His high slot might make it hard for Cox to command his stuff to all quadrants of the strike zone, and his lack of present changeup is concerning, but if he can back foot his breaking ball, he’ll have a way to deal with righties. He needs a third pitch, change or not, but should otherwise end up as a good lefty reliever.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from UAB (KCR)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Hicklen went to UAB planning to play both football and baseball, but the school’s football program was shut down when he got to campus, and he was drafted and signed by Kansas City before it was reborn. He practiced with the team, but never suited up for the gridiron.

2018 was his first year of full-time baseball and he hit .307/.378/.552 with 17 homers and 29 steals, albeit as a 22-year-old at Low-A. His strength/raw power and straight-line speed are what you’d probably expect from a college wide receiver, but Hicklen’s compact, in-game swing prioritizes contact. He’s predictably raw and somewhat stiff rather than graceful and coordinated but he has physical ability, he plays really hard, and there’s a chance some of the skill-based parts of the game come to him in his mid-20s.

24. Omar Florentino, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 17.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 135 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Signed for $750,000, Florentino is a little spark plug with elite short-area quickness and transfer. His defensive range will play on the middle infield, though his arm might fit better at second. While Florentino has viable swings from both sides of the plate, his raw power projection is limited by his size.

25. D.J. Burt, 2B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Fuquay-Varina HS (NC) (KCR)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Burt began playing all over the field in 2018 and is intriguing as a speedy utility guy who takes good at-bats. He has almost no playable power, so there’s a chance his offensive skills don’t hold water at the upper levels (pitchers may just attack him because of the lack of power, deadening the impact of his patience), and he’s just an org guy, but he’s a sleeper utility man who may get a shot sometime during this Royals rebuild.

26. Josh Staumont, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Azusa Pacific (KCR)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Staumont would sit 99-99 and touch 101 or 102 in college and also has a dastardly curveball, but he’s a 6 or 7 walks per nine guy, and hasn’t been able to make headway in the control/command realm as a pro. He’s 25 now, and will probably get some exposure to the big leagues just to see what happens, but he would seem to be on the 40-man fringe.

27. Janser Lara, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lara throws really hard and his breaking ball has plus raw spin, though visual evaluations of that pitch are not as strong as the spin rates suggest. He may benefit from a release or grip adjustment because his fastball movement is wildly inconsistent. So, too, is his control, and Lara will likely end up in a bullpen. It’ll take plenty of polish to make something of him, but there’s late-inning stuff here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Young Guys Who Might Pop
Rylan Kaufman, LHP
Wilmin Candelario, SS
Jeison Guzman, SS
Maikel Garcia, SS
Raymond Lopez, CF
Anderson Paulino, RHP
Rubendy Jaquez, 3B

Kaufman was a $722,000 JuCo 12th rounder who can really spin a curveball (2750 rpm average in pro ball). He’s still just 19, has a lanky frame, and already bumps 92, 93 on occasion. Candelario is a balletic defensive shortstop who adds little flourishes to just about everything he does. The entire offensive package is below-average right now, but we’ll see what happens with the frame. Speaking of waiting on the frame, Guzman is now 20 and has finally started to fill out in a positive way. He’s going to strike out a lot, but has a chance to rise into the main portion of the list this year. Garcia is a smooth, rangy defender and has a good frame but he’s very weak with the bat right now. Lopez looked intriguing (above average runner, gap pop, feel for center field) before he was seriously injured in 2017, and then he had a bad 2018. He’s a bounce back candidate. Paulino is a strong-bodied 20-year-old who sits 93-97. His upper-80s slider has vertical break, but it’s blunt and lacks that bat-missing bite. Realistically, he’s a developmental bullpen piece, but there are some late-inning components in place if that slider gets tighter. Jaquez is 20 and has above-average bat speed.

Potential Role-Playing Arms
Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Zach Haake, RHP
Arnaldo Hernandez, RHP
Andres Machado, RHP

Bowlan’s stuff has been all over the place, sometimes even during the same start. He was 89-95 during his first outing and could be a sinker/slider reliever, but the Royals have done fairly well with sinkerballers lately. Haake will show plus stuff for an inning or two before his command starts to waivers. He could be a mid-90s, plus slider reliever. Hernandez is 23 and could be a changeup-centric reliever if his fastball ticks up in relief. Machado is a mid-90s/cutter reliever without a pitch that will obviously miss bats.

Bench Types
Michael Gigliotti, OF
Gabriel Cancel, 2B
Bubba Starling, CF
Blake Perkins, CF
Kort Peterson, 1B
Juan Carlos Negret, RF
Cristian Perez, SS

Gigliotti was a plus runner with feel for the zone who was a 40 runner this spring, his first back from an ACL tear. If the speed returns, he’s a likely bench outfielder. Cancel is a career .265 hitter, is at Double-A, and could be an infield utility bat. We still think Bubba Starling, who runs well and plays a fine center field but has never found a good swing foundation, plays in the big leagues. Perkins is now 23 and still lacks physicality, but he can really run and play center. Peterson is a corner guy with some contact skills. Negret has plus power but little feel for contact. Perez is an instinctive defender with some feel to hit.

System Overview

We spent a lot of effort trying to discern what the Royals were trying to do with their 2018 draft bonus pool, which was the biggest in baseball last year, because it was going to have such a profound impact on the rest of the draft. They ended up with all college value picks (and, eventually, Rylan Kaufman), which tasted disappointingly vanilla at the time, but now looks like a clear-headed approach as it yielded five of the org’s top 10 prospects and several other interesting ones, our Bowlan skepticism be damned.

This is a top-to-bottom reset, with maybe four or five players on the big league roster who are realistic parts of the next competitive Royals team, at the same that there aren’t any top 100 prospects currently in the system. The big wave of talent that represents the crest of the rebuilding wave is at Hi-A Wilmington right now, and whomever becomes the second pick in the upcoming draft (be it Adley Rutchsmann or Andrew Vaughn, the two players we think are the most likely to go first or second based on talent) should be advanced enough to join them pretty quickly, so long as the Royals don’t take a high schooler. Whoever the pick, barring a sizable leap from one of the 45 FV players on this list, the new 2019 draftee will immediately be the club’s No. 1 prospect. Perhaps, if enough of that wave actually pans out, they’ll be good again sooner than the overall quality of the farm indicates.

We also have them linked to outfielder Erick Pena, who is No. 4 among our 2019 July 2 prospects at the time of publication. So there’s some more exciting talent coming. But right now, the most important parts of the org are the amateur scouting and player dev staff who might help Kansas City create tradable big leaguers.


Top 30 Prospects: Cleveland Indians

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Cleveland Indians. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Indians Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Nolan Jones 20.9 A+ 3B 2021 50
2 Triston McKenzie 21.7 AA RHP 2020 50
3 Yu Chang 23.6 AAA SS 2019 50
4 Brayan Rocchio 18.2 R SS 2022 50
5 George Valera 18.4 R LF 2021 50
6 Bo Naylor 19.1 A C 2022 45+
7 Lenny Torres 18.5 R RHP 2023 45
8 Luis Oviedo 19.9 A RHP 2022 45
9 Tyler Freeman 19.9 A SS 2022 45
10 Sam Hentges 22.7 AA LHP 2021 45
11 Carlos Vargas 19.5 R RHP 2023 45
12 Oscar Mercado 24.3 AAA CF 2019 45
13 Junior Sanquintin 17.2 R SS 2023 40+
14 Gabriel Rodriguez 17.1 R SS 2023 40+
15 Ethan Hankins 18.9 R RHP 2023 40+
16 Aaron Bracho 18.0 R SS 2023 40
17 Will Benson 20.8 A RF 2022 40
18 Richard Palacios 21.9 A 2B 2021 40
19 Jean Carlos Mejia 22.6 A+ RHP 2019 40
20 Bobby Bradley 22.9 AAA 1B 2019 40
21 Daniel Johnson 23.7 AA CF 2020 40
22 Aaron Civale 23.8 AA RHP 2020 40
23 Nick Sandlin 22.2 AA RHP 2020 40
24 Ernie Clement 23.0 AA SS 2020 40
25 Eli Morgan 22.9 A+ RHP 2021 40
26 Alexfri Planez 17.6 R RF 2024 35+
27 Quentin Holmes 19.8 A CF 2023 35+
28 Jonathan Lopez 19.7 R 3B 2023 35+
29 Jose Tena 18.0 R SS 2024 35+
30 Johnathan Rodriguez 19.4 R CF 2023 35+
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50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Holy Ghost Prep HS (PA) (CLE)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 55/60 55/60 30/30 40/45 60/60

Scouts’ opinions about where on the defensive spectrum Jones will end up are all over the map. He got quite big not long after he was drafted and seemed destined for first base, and while there’s still a chance he ends up there eventually, he looked leaner last year and has a better chance of staying at third for a while. Some clubs think he’ll move to right field, and the contact issues Jones has had due to his lever length are problematic if he doesn’t stay at third.

We’re intrigued by the three-true outcomes possibilities here, as Jones already has huge power and might grow into more, and he’s also had some of the higher walk rates in all of the minor leagues. Opposing pitchers are going to have to be careful with him or risk paying a 400 foot price, so we expect his on base ability to hold water at the upper levels. He could reach Double-A Akron as a 21-year-old later in the year if he performs during the spring.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Royal Palm Beach HS (FL) (CLE)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 40/45 50/60 90-93 / 95

McKenzie was a high-profile prep pitcher in south Florida before the 2015 draft, and the main question about him focused on his rail-thin 6-foot-5, 160 pound frame. If you thought he would put on a good bit of weight, then you could see him adding velocity to his 88-92 mph heater. But the question was whether he would have enough stuff and durability to start if he stayed about the same size. He’s filled out some since the Indians took him in the comp round in 2015, but it looks like he’s always going to be very thin.

His velocity has crept up a bit to 90-93, hitting 95 mph, but the life, plane, deception, extension, and command combine to make the fastball an above average pitch now. The additional arm speed has helped his breaker improve; it flashes plus at times. And he’s kept the positive attributes scouts originally noticed in his delivery and the athleticism, so the command may also end up being plus. The changeup is a 45, so his curve, pitchability, and deception are the carrying tools we think will turn him into a league average starter. McKenzie also had his first pro injury in 2018, and his strikeout rate was down in his first taste of Double-A, before he had upper back issues that have him on the shelf to start 2019. So long as his stuff in intact upon return, we think he’s a No. 4 starter with a chance to be a No. 3.

3. Yu Chang, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Taiwan (CLE)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 45/55 55/55 50/50 45/50 50/50

Teams have likely already studied this, but during our in-person looks at Chang, which date back to 2014, he seems to generate top spin on batted balls with more regularity than is typical for hitters. That’s not a good thing, as the same way a curveball does, it causes Chang’s fly balls to sink and die at a lesser distance than they should. We have no idea if the ability to hit balls with no spin (which is ideal) is a skill hitters have, but if it is, Chang probably isn’t one of them. He does have power though, and he’s a viable defensive third baseman who’d be capable of moonlighting at short or second base if Cleveland needed him to. We like him as a versatile, bat-first prospect who can play all over the place.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (CLE)
Age 18.2 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 20/40 40/45 60/60 45/55 50/50

After a month and a half of DSL games, Cleveland decided to push little Brayan Rocchio to the AZL for the season’s final month, and his numbers there were almost exactly the same. He was the most naturally-gifted hitter in the AZL last year, a switch-hitter with sublime bat control and more power than one would expect a 150-pound 17-year-old to possess. He’s going to stay up the middle, either at shortstop or second base, and while he’s not an obviously desirable teenage prospect like most big-framed, 6-foot-3 types with power would be, this is exactly the kind of profile we’re seeking to identify earlier in the process. This is what several of the little middle infielders in our top 50 looked like at this age; they hit and played good defense somewhere important, but were literally overlooked because they were small.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 20/60 45/55 50/45 40/50 40/45

Born and raised to the brink of adolescence in New York, Valera’s family moved to the Dominican Republic when he was 13. Injuries sustained in a car accident necessitated that metal rods be inserted in Valera’s father’s limbs, and the move was a way of providing him physical comfort in a warmer climate. It also meant Valera became an international prospect rather than an American high school draftee, and when he was eligible, he signed with Cleveland for $1.3 million.

He is polished for his age, not only in the batter’s box but in center field, where he’s very comfortable going back on balls. His frame is not especially projectable but Valera’s swing has natural lift and he has good feel for contact. He’s likely to get to whatever raw power he ends up growing into as he matures, and he may stay in center field for a while. A broken hamate limited his reps last year, but he may be ready for the New York-Penn League this season anyway.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from St. Joan of Arc HS (CAN) (CLE)
Age 19.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 55/60 30/50 50/40 40/50 55/55

The younger brother of Padres prospect Josh Naylor, Bo is a better athlete with similar feel to hit, but less raw power. He has the necessary twitch (some teams liked him at third base pre-draft) and just enough pure arm strength to catch as long as his throws become more consistently accurate. His defense was baptized by fire in the AZL as Naylor had to catch guys with huge stuff like Lenny Torres and Carlos Vargas, among others. If his offensive ability can withstand the developmental burdens and physical grind of catching, he could be a middle-of-the-order bat, too. Even if Naylor’s in-game power manifests itself as doubles, he profiles at catcher and Cleveland’s recent, brief experimentation with Francisco Mejia at third base provides some precedent for what may happen should Naylor prove unable to catch or if Cleveland thinks moving him will get his bat to the majors more quickly.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Beacon HS (NY) (CLE)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/60 40/50 40/50 92-95 / 97

Torres checked a lot of amateur scouting boxes — the body, athleticism, stuff, and makeup were all lauded — and was a model-friendly prospect due to his age, so while issues with fastball command caused some clubs to project him in relief, he was still a clear top two round talent. Perhaps Torres’ control is behind because, as a cold-weather amateur prospect, he hasn’t pitched all that much. He only threw around 40 innings during his senior spring, and bad suburban high school hitters in New York couldn’t catch his fastball. As a result, Torres had little cause to use his changeup during varsity play — some national evaluators would go whole starts without seeing it — but it flashed 55 or 60 during his showcase summer and was easy to dream on.

Perhaps the most striking aspect of Torres’ post-draft performance was how regularly he located his slider down and to his glove side. He has mid-rotation components if you’re willing to dream and — based on his athleticism, age, and geographic background — we are.

8. Luis Oviedo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (CLE)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/50 45/55 45/55 90-94 / 97

Oviedo dominated the New York-Penn League, a league full of college hitters, as an 19-year-old in 2018, striking out 61 and walking just 10 in 48 innings. He’s less projectable than his age indicates because his body is already sturdy and mature, and so too is his ability to throw strikes with any of his four quality pitches. He was shut down with a lower back injury late in 2018, but was fine this spring, and will pitch at Low-A Lake County to start the year, while still 19 for several weeks. We have him projected as an innings-eating fourth starter.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Etiwanda HS (CA) (CLE)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 40/45 30/45 55/50 40/50 45/45

A young, polished, but relatively unexplosive high schooler, Freeman was a bit of a surprise second rounder in 2017 but has quickly become much more interesting thanks to a sterling 2018 season with Mahoning Valley. As a 19-year-old, he hit .352/.405/.511 for the Scrappers, torching even the loftiest of expectations set by scouts who saw him during extended spring training and mostly considered Freeman a future utility man. Fundamentally sound at short, he lacks the explosiveness and big arm strength scouts look for at the position, and we wonder if Freeman will hit for enough power to be an impact player at any other position.

His early career strikeout rate (7.5% in about 450 PA) suggests his bat-to-ball skills are even more promising than amateur scouts anticipated, though he’s also an aggressive swinger who has been hit by nearly twice as many pitches as he has walks so far. When scouts talk about a player having “feel, polish, instincts” and the like, and the player has numbers like Freeman’s contact rates, we typically round up on that guy. In Freeman’s case, we remain cautious because the eyeball scouts are so resolute in their skepticism of the power projection.

10. Sam Hentges, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Mounds View HS (MN) (CLE)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 40/50 91-95 / 96

Some projection-friendly traits for pitchers include: a young age, size/frame, and a cold-weather background (they’re raw, but also fresh from limited reps). Hentges, a 6-foot-6 Minnesota high school prospect, who was 17 on his draft day, has all of these, and also missed a whole year of innings rehabbing from Tommy John. And yet, still just 22, Hentges is in Double-A and on the doorstep of the big leagues.

His size and arm slot create tough angle on his fastball and vertical depth on his curveball. One should feel free to project on the changeup and the still-lacking fastball control into Hentges’ mid-20s because of the aforementioned traits and the TJ. So while there’s a chance Hentges winds up in the bullpen (where he could be a good multi-inning option), he also has realistic No. 4 starter upside. He was into the mid-90s with his fastball this spring and has a chance to debut this year if Cleveland is competitive and think he’s one of the 12 best arms in the org.

11. Carlos Vargas, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/50 30/45 94-97 / 99

Line up all the teenage arms on the planet and few of them have stuff as hellacious as Vargas’, who had moments of being a dominant force of nature in last year’s AZL. At times, Vargas would sit 93-96; at others, his fastball would crest 100 and he’d break off the occasional plus-plus breaking ball. He also has long stretches where he’s wild, erratic, and visibly flustered on the mound. There’s much to be desired from a poise/mound-presence standpoint here, but that’s okay for now considering his age. He has a deep, plunging arm action similar to that of Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga, who have each had injury issues (as has Vargas), and he might end up a reliever, but we currently have him evaluated the way we would a late first round arm.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2013 from Gaither HS (FL) (STL)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 45/45 35/40 55/55 50/55 50/50

One of the questions we ask ourselves as we line players up is, “Would you trade Player A for Player B?” Sometimes the answer to that question depends significantly on which team would be making the decision, and perhaps was no recent trade a better example of this than Cleveland’s acquisition of Mercado. In anticipation of a short-term need for outfielders, Cleveland traded teenage beast Jhon Torres for Mercado, a low-ceiling lock to contribute to the big league team at some point soon.

Once a prep infield prospect, Mercado moved to the outfield after a few uninspiring statistical years with St. Louis, started to hit, became a plus outfield defender, and was part of a log jammed upper-level Cardinals outfield picture. The swap made sense for both teams. Cleveland got a potential everyday center fielder (Mercado won’t hit for much power but might be a 6 glove and 55 bat, which is playable everyday in center) and St. Louis diffused some 40-man pressure in exchange for a great, long-term prospect. Cleveland’s outfield situation may change depending on performance, and Mercado may be thrust into an everyday role at some point in 2019. He’s at least a good long-term fourth outfielder, but has a chance to provide everyday value.

40+ FV Prospects

13. Junior Sanquintin, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican (CLE)
Age 17.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/55 25/50 55/50 40/50 55/60

Cleveland has done a remarkable job of finding international prospects with both advanced bat-to-ball skills and interesting physicality. The stocky, 6-foot-1 Sanquintin is the latest. Scouts don’t typically project bodies like this to stay at short but Sanquintin’s explosive first step allays some of those concerns. His hands are fine, he has a strong arm, and we think he has a good chance to stick at short.

Sanquintin had one of the more advanced bats in his international class and has some present pop due to his physicality, with room for a little more. He has much better feel to hit from the right side of the plate but there’s enticing lift and whip from both sides. He has the tools of a switch-hitting shortstop with power assuming the left-handed bat control improves with time.

14. Gabriel Rodriguez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (CLE)
Age 17.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 20/45 50/45 40/50 50/55

He didn’t put on much of a show during MLB’s big winter showcase but as we approach extended spring, there’s palpable buzz surrounding Rodriguez, who signed for about $2 million last July. Though heavy-footed when Kiley saw him last February, Rodriguez has good infield hands and actions, and is a good bet to stay on the middle infield. He has mature feel for contact but his swing is currently pretty conservative, and Rodriguez likely won’t hit for power without an approach or mechanical adjustment. He’s a bat-first shortstop prospect and could soon be where Tyler Freeman is on this list.

15. Ethan Hankins, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Forsyth Central HS (GA) (CLE)
Age 18.9 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 40/50 92-95 / 97

Hankins was the consensus top prep arm in the class during his pre-draft summer and was a dominant part of Team USA in the fall. At that point, Hankins was commanding a lively 93-96 mph heater, a new, but already plus slider, and an at least average changeup that he didn’t need to use much. He looked a little rusty early during his senior spring, then walked off the mound with tightness in a shoulder muscle tied behind the joint. He returned over a month later and threw hard down the stretch, peaking at 97 mph in multiple open workouts for scouts after his school was eliminated from the playoffs.

He still hasn’t shown the promise from the summer, as he’s completely lost feel for his slider. He only threw the pitch in games last spring a handful of times and scouts speculated it made his arm hurt, but he threw it in some of the postseason workouts and simply had no feel for it anymore. At various points Hankins has utilized either a slider or curveball, and each looks good a few times a start but not often enough to project it as an impact pitch. He was noticeably thicker during the 2018 summer and continued having issues throwing quality breaking balls. Once a likely top 10 pick, he’s now a bounce back hopeful.

40 FV Prospects

16. Aaron Bracho, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (CLE)
Age 18.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/45 55/50 40/45 50/50

A broken arm shelved Bracho for all of 2018, save for a sliver of extended spring training, but he has been heavily scouted since age 14, when he impressed at the 2016 PG World Showcase in the states, so scouts are well acquainted with him even though he’s never played an official pro game. The totality of his defensive abilities (his hands, actions, arm strength) all likely push him to second base, and the presence of Rocchio, Sanquintin, and Rodriguez make that future even more likely.

But several promising offensive traits — a swing with natural loft, plus bat speed, precocious barrel control that is better from the left side — excite us. He’s an up-the-middle prospect with a well-rounded offensive skillset. We’re unsure how Cleveland will resolve their lower-level logjam of middle infielders but the fact that they’re poised to have two AZL teams for the second year in a row should open up sufficient at-bats for everyone including Bracho, if they feel his lost year means he should stay in Arizona for the summer.

17. Will Benson, RF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Westminster Schools HS (GA) (CLE)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 40/60 55/50 45/50 80/80

It might shock you to learn that Benson’s 2018 line of .180/.324/.370 was a hair above the average Midwest League batting line. In high school, he was your standard high risk, high reward corner power projection bat. A monstrous and athletic 6-foot-5 (there’s a rumor Coach K offered him a hoops walk-on opportunity in an effort to get him to campus), Benson drew body and swing comps to Jason Heyward.

But as he has accumulated statistics in pro ball, he looks much more unique than his profile’s bird’s eye view would indicate. He strikes out 30% of the time, which is fairly common for prospects like this. But he incredibly only slugged .370 last year while still managing to homer 22 times, and Benson’s ground ball rate is a minuscule 28%. He walked at an encouraging 16% clip last year. Still just 20, Benson remains a tooled up project with a huge red flag, but now has several underlying statistical traits of interest. He’d be higher on most other teams’ prospect lists; we just prefer the ultra-young, up-the-middle guys in this system to a profile like Benson’s, and Cleveland has lots of those.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Towson (CLE)
Age 21.9 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/40 30/40 65/65 45/50 50/50

It’s uncommon for a college hitter to have more walks than strikeouts during his career but Palacios’ ratio during his junior season at Towson was exceptional. He walked 52 times and struck out just 16 while also swiping an ultra-efficient 25 bases in 26 attempts. He’s a nearly plus-plus runner and capable middle infield defender (probably at second) with premium hand-eye coordination and bat control. There was some concern that Palacios beat up on small conference pitching his entire career and might not replicate that performance against pro pitching, but we’re buying it. Once poised to perhaps move quickly through the system, Palacios had posterior labrum surgery in late-March and will miss much of the season.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 50/55 90-94 / 95

We’re mindful of the need to identify pitchers whose fastballs play like impact pitches despite mediocre velocity, and Mejia appears to be one. He only throws in the low-90s but competes for swinging strikes in the zone, we think, due to big extension and effectual plane. He also has fantastic slider command, perhaps because his front foot lands so open, enabling Mejia to clear his front side consistently and preventing him from hanging sliders in the zone. He throws a lot of strikes and keeps the ball on the ground. We’ve warmed to the upper-level viability of his stuff and think he could be up at some point this year and become a No. 4 or 5 starter long-term.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2014 from Harrion Central HS (MS) (CLE)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 65/60 50/55 20/20 40/45 50/50

Stung by bad BABIP luck in 2018 (.226), Bradley’s repeat tour of Double-A Akron looked discouraging on paper. He still managed to pound out 27 homers, though, and he remains a strong power/lift/plate discipline prospect who could perform at the big league level soon. Players like this sometimes have seasons in excess of 2 WAR but are generally the type who bounce around the fringes of active rosters, like C.J. Cron or Matt Adams.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from New Mexico State (WAS)
Age 23.7 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 35/45 70/70 40/50 80/80

So prodigious is Johnson’s laser arm that some amateur scouts wanted to see him on the mound in pro ball. He has some of the louder tertiary tools in the minors but limited bat control keeps some of them, especially his sizable raw power, from actualizing in games. Tools like this typically find their way onto a big league roster in some capacity, even if offensive issues exist. He’ll tantalize with the occasional all-world highlight à la Franchy Cordero, but Johnson realistically profiles as a platoon outfielder.

22. Aaron Civale, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Northeastern (CLE)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
40/40 55/60 55/60 45/50 45/50 50/60 88-93 / 94

Civale does not miss many bats because he has limited fastball velocity, but he’s a high-volume strike thrower with excellent secondary stuff, including one of the best curveball spin rates in the minors. He draws from a spacious bag of tricks to get hitters out, and has now had success at the upper levels of the minors with limited velo, so we’re buying that he can make things work as a fifth starter.

23. Nick Sandlin, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Southern Mississippi (CLE)
Age 22.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/60 45/50 45/60 90-94 / 94

Sandlin’s junior stats at Southern Miss read like he was playing MVP Baseball on the rookie difficulty setting. It was his first year as a starter and he struck out 144 hitters in 102 innings while walking just 18. He’s a side-armer with a running, low-90s fastball and above-average slider. Both pitches play up because of Sandlin’s command, and at times his stuff is so well-located that it’s unhittable. He was our favorite to be the first from the 2018 draft class to reach the big leagues but a 2019 spring forearm injury might delay his arrival.

24. Ernie Clement, SS
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Virginia (CLE)
Age 23.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 40/40 30/35 70/70 40/45 50/50

Another in the long line of University of Virginia hitters with micro strikeout rates, Clement K’d just seven times during his entire junior season. He’s carried that contact ability into pro ball, where he struck out just 8.5% of the time at Low-A in his first full season before moving on to Hi- and Double-A late in the year.

We’re skeptical of his ability to play shortstop due to below-average hands and actions, and think he probably fits best in center field due to his speed, but Cleveland played him exclusively at short last year. The lack of power likely means he maxes out as a utility man, so it makes sense to hand Clement a ton of reps at shortstop to see if he can improve, since ideally he’d be able to play there on occasion. He spent a lot of time with the big league club during 2019 spring training and made characteristically high rates of contact. The bat and his speed should carry him to some kind of lesser major league role, with his defensive development determining if it’s of the super utility variety or a limited runner/bench bat gig.

25. Eli Morgan, RHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2017 from Gonzaga (CLE)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 45/45 45/50 60/70 45/55 86-91 / 92

Morgan’s velo was down a bit last year and at times his fastball sat in the mid-80s instead of the upper-80s and low-90s like it had the year before. He’s on this list because he has one of the better changeups in the minors and throws a lot of strikes, but he’ll need to exhibit a velocity bounce back this year to remain here, or else show that he has traits that make his fastball playable despite the lackluster velo.

35+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (CLE)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Planez has big time pull-side lift in his swing, already has 45 raw power at age 17, and has a fairly projectable 6-foot-2 frame that portends more. He’ll reach down and barrel balls near his shoe tops and also crush mistakes. He’s too aggressive right now and probably has to move to a corner eventually, so our early assessment of the profile is that it’s very risky. But as far as teenage power projection bats go, this is a good one.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from McClancy HS (NY) (CLE)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Holmes is a high-end athlete with elite makeup and speed. He’s sushi-raw, in part because he was one of the younger hitters in his draft class and in part because he’s a bat from upstate New York, and missed reps he desperately needed in 2018 due to a hamstring injury. The bat needs to develop a lot for Holmes to be an everyday player but his speed should at least make him a bench outfielder. If you buy into the notion that athleticism and makeup drive development, then we’re low on Holmes.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Somewhat lost in the shuffle of intriguing AZL prospects, Lopez is a switch-hitting third baseman with a good-looking swing and feel for the strike zone. He’s a little less physically projectable than is ideal, so it’s unclear how much power he’ll have at peak, but if he stays at third and ends up with a plus bat, it won’t matter.

29. Jose Tena, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 18.0 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Tena spent 2018 in the DSL and should come stateside in 2019. Short but good-framed, he has plus hands, good infield footwork, and will probably grow into enough arm for the left side of the infield. His swing is a little long right now but he’s athletic, wings harder than is typical for a teenager this size, and has plenty of time for mechanical tweaks. He’s an interesting, long-term shortstop prospect.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Carlos Beltran Academy HS (PR) (CLE)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

All sorts of traits indicate Rodriguez will need to barbecue in the lower minors for several years. He’s already spent two in rookie ball and is poised to spend early 2019 in extended spring training. He’s a long-limbed, switch-hitting outfielder who is still just 19 even though he was drafted two years ago. His early-career walk rates are promising, and so too are his fairly reasonable strikeout numbers. He’s an athletic ball of clay for player dev to mold, a quintessential high-variance prospect.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Some More Really Young Guys
Raynel Delgado, SS
Marcos Gonzalez, SS
Korey Holland, OF

Delgado just turned 19. He’s a patient, switch-hitting infielder with some low-ball ability from the left side, though his swing can get long. Marcos Gonzalez will be 19 all year and was assigned to full-season ball. He’s a polished defender with a small but well-proportioned frame, and average bat speed, but limited bat control. Holland will also be 19 all year. He’s a plus runner with some feel to hit but came to pro ball with a poor swing foundation, so he’s a bit of a project.

Catching
Eric Haase, C
Sicnarf Loopstok, C
Logan Ice, C

Haase has power, he strikes out, and he’s not a great defender. It’s an Evan Gattis-ish profile. Eli Ben-Porat identified Loopstok as an elite receiver, something corroborated to me by an office source. He’s also performed on paper the last two years. He might factor into the 40-man catching picture soon. Ice’s numbers were bad last year but he’s still a fine defender and hits the ball in the air a ton.

Power Relief Arms
Juan Mota, RHP
James Karinchak, RHP

Mota’s fastball doesn’t have great angle, but it’s hard and moves. His slider is just average but when he locates it, it gets swings and misses. Karinchek throws in the mid-90s and has a unique, over-the-top delivery.

Upper-Level Outfielders
Oscar Gonzalez, OF
Andrew Calica, OF
Alex Call, OF
Mitch Longo, OF

Gonzalez, 21, is an old school, gloveless free-swinger who takes big hacks at everything. Calica had a great sophomore year at UCSB, then fell off as a junior. He’s fast and makes contact, and could be a fourth outfielder. Call has more power, but it’s doubles thump, and he doesn’t run quite as well as Calica. Longo seemed to be a 2018 swing changer and does a little of both.

Changeup Artists
Chih-Wei Hu, RHP
Raymond Burgos, LHP
Zach Plesac, RHP
Eli Lingos, LHP
Ben Krauth, LHP

Hu has been developed as a kitchen sink starter and is probably rotation depth for now, but ultimately, he’ll likely stick in someone’s bullpen with a more limited repertoire. Burgos has a low three-quarters slot, and sits 91-94, with the cambio. Plesac is coming off of Tommy John. He has the hardest fastball among the non-Hus in this category, but also has the worst command. Krauth throws harder than Lingos, but Lingos is a few years younger and doesn’t need to be on the 40-man for a while.

Can Spin It
Jerson Ramirez, RHP
Kyle Nelson, LHP
Kirk McCarty, LHP

Ramirez is only 20 but throws in the low-90s and averaged 2700 rpm on his curveball last year. Nelson can really pitch and carved up Low-A in 2018. He sits 88-91 but beats hitters with it anyway, and his good slider has bat-missing vertical action. McCarty’s release point clearly makes lefties uncomfortable and he has a good two-plane breaker.

System Overview

Cleveland seems to be one of the game’s more rational actors. Well aware of their competitive window, the team moved several young players in exchange for players who, while perhaps possessing less upside, are more likely to help them soon. Tahnaj Thomas for Jordan Luplow. Jhon Torres for Oscar Mercado. Gionti Turner for Chih-Wei Hu. Ignacio Feliz for Walker Lockett. These are moves designed to create depth behind the talented and competitive big league roster as other teams need to shed 40-man weight. Nash Equilibrium and all that. It’s team building on a budget, a front office making do with what ownership seems willing to spend.

We’ve talked about this here before, but Cleveland executes their draft strategy so well that it’s easy to see what it is. They almost always end up with some of the youngest high school players in the draft, and they often seem to end up with players who had strong sophomore college seasons, but down junior years, or high school players who were great during the previous summer but fell during their senior spring. It suggests they more evenly weigh multiple years of performance, perhaps consciously avoiding recency bias in places where other teams and individuals see progress.


Top 30 Prospects: Chicago White Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

White Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Eloy Jimenez 22.3 MLB RF 2019 60
2 Michael Kopech 22.9 MLB RHP 2019 55
3 Nick Madrigal 22.0 A+ 2B 2020 55
4 Luis Robert 21.7 A+ CF 2020 55
5 Dylan Cease 23.3 AA RHP 2019 50
6 Dane Dunning 24.3 AA RHP 2021 50
7 Micker Adolfo 22.6 A+ RF 2021 45
8 Luis Alexander Basabe 22.6 AA CF 2019 45
9 Blake Rutherford 21.9 A+ LF 2020 45
10 Luis Gonzalez 23.6 A+ RF 2020 45
11 Zack Collins 24.2 AA 1B 2019 45
12 Jake Burger 23.0 A 3B 2021 40+
13 Steele Walker 22.7 A LF 2022 40+
14 Jimmy Lambert 24.4 AA RHP 2020 40
15 Seby Zavala 25.6 AAA C 2019 40
16 Tyler Johnson 23.6 A+ RHP 2020 40
17 Gavin Sheets 22.9 A+ 1B 2020 40
18 Jordan Stephens 26.6 AAA RHP 2019 40
19 Konnor Pilkington 21.6 R LHP 2021 40
20 Alec Hansen 24.5 AA RHP 2020 40
21 Zack Burdi 24.1 AAA RHP 2019 40
22 Luis Mieses 18.8 R CF 2022 40
23 Codi Heuer 22.7 R RHP 2021 40
24 Zach Thompson 25.4 AA RHP 2020 35+
25 Bernardo Flores 23.6 AA LHP 2020 35+
26 Danny Mendick 25.5 AAA SS 2019 35+
27 Bryce Bush 19.3 R RF 2022 35+
28 Lenyn Sosa 19.2 R SS 2022 35+
29 Ryan Burr 24.8 MLB RHP 2019 35+
30 Ian Hamilton 23.8 MLB RHP 2019 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CHC)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 70/80 60/70 40/40 45/50 60/60

Even before the White Sox acquired Jimenez from the Cubs in the Jose Quintana trade, he had dealt with a multitude of injuries. Hamstring and shoulder issues plagued him while he was still with the Cubs, and limited him to DH duty, or forced him to sit out for a few days at a time, or altogether kept rehabbing him on the Mesa backfields. He has continued to have various issues since the South Siders acquired him. In 2018 alone, Jimenez dealt with patella tendinitis during the early part of spring training, then was left back in extended due to a strained pec. He suffered a strained left adductor in July, and finally a quad strain this winter, which ended his Dominican Winter League season.

But while Eloy has missed considerable time with injuries and sometimes played through them, he has mashed like few other players in the minors. He split 2018 between Double-A Birmingham and Triple-A Charlotte, slashing .337/.384/.577, his strikeout rate plummeting to 13% at the latter stop. Despite his limited speed and at-bats, he somehow managed to net 53 extra-base hits and seemed ready for a big league cup of coffee in September. The White Sox refused to brew him one, and Eloy’s agent threatened to file a grievance against the club, an issue that was resolved during 2019 spring training with a record contract extension. He’ll likely be up all year, and while we think there’s a chance injury or a lack of mobility limit Eloy’s ceiling the way flaws have similarly limited some of Chicago’s other recent prospect graduates, we still think he’ll hit enough to be a star.

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Mt. Pleasant HS (TX) (BOS)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/60 45/55 40/45 94-98 / 101

Just as Kopech seemed to be harnessing his hellacious stuff, he blew out. In the seven minor league starts before his big league debut, Kopech walked just four batters, and he was similarly efficient in his first few big league outings. His velocity was down and the Tigers shelled him in his final start, and an MRI revealed Kopech would need Tommy John. The timing was particularly cruel, not just because things had started to click, but also because late-season TJs usually cost the pitcher all of the next year; Kopech isn’t expected to be back until 2020.

His stuff is great, headlined by a mid-90s fastball that often crests 100 mph. The command inroads Kopech made late in 2018 are especially important for his ability to deal with lefties, because his changeup feel is not very good. He’ll need to mix his two breaking balls together to deal with them, and his slider feel is way ahead of the curveball. So long as Kopech’s stuff returns, he has No. 3 starter ceiling if the command comes with it, and high-leverage relief ability if the latter does not.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (CHW)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 7″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/70 45/45 40/45 70/70 55/60 50/50

When Madrigal fractured his wrist during Oregon State’s second series of the year, he was hitting .560 (14-for-25) with two doubles, two homers, and three steals in three attempts. For two long weekends in Arizona, he did everything. He crushed balls in all parts of the strike zone, ran plus-plus times to first base, and made several highlight reel defensive plays at second base. The wrist fracture kept him out for the rest of February, all of March, and most of April. When he returned, Madrigal kept hitting, but not for power, which is consistent with what plagues hitters for several months after they’ve had a break in the hand/wrist area.

That trend continued through his first pro summer, which was interrupted by a hamstring issue, as Madrigal struggled to pull and/or lift the ball at all. He had a downward, slashing swing instead of the dynamic and athletic cut he’d had early in the year, when he could scoop and lift stuff at the bottom of the zone. But he kept making contact. It was a month before a pro pitcher was able to strike Madrigal, who only K’d in 3% of his pro plate appearances last year, out.

It’s fair to make a distinction between prospects who are small, and ones who are just short. Jose Altuve is short, but is built like a little tank. Madrigal is small, a diminutive 5-foot-7, 165 pounds, and this, combined with his total lack of post-draft power, has the pro side of scouting very concerned. He looked tired and sluggish during instructional league, though it wasn’t as if he’d played a whole year and was an obvious candidate to be run down, furthering concerns that his size will be an issue. We’re inclined to believe there’s a substantial bounce-back on the horizon. He was the best draft-eligible hitter we saw last year, a complete player with few, if any, flaws.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (CHW)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 65/65 30/55 60/60 50/55 60/60

More than a full year removed from all that intrigue and we still know relatively little about Luis Robert, largely due to a thumb ligament sprain LouBob dealt with throughout 2018. His signing with Chicago marked the end of a more lucrative era for young international players who are now subject to more tight-fisted rules capping bonus amounts. Despite a limited market due to the timing of his deal, Robert signed for $26 million thanks to his all-world physical gifts. The raw power and top-end speed were obvious in workouts, but unless teams scouted him in Series Nacional or during the Cuban National team’s annual CanAm League tour, little was known about his ability to hit big league-quality pitching, or what his instincts were like in center field.

Because his thumb cost him April, May, and July (he re-aggravated it), it was hard to get extended looks during 2018 until Robert’s six-week stint in the Arizona Fall League (which was also interrupted by a hamstring issue). LouBob’s AFL stats were fine, but his swing path left him vulnerable to velocity on the inner half, and he too often expanded the zone. There’s doubt that he’ll get to all of his raw power in games, both due to the swing path and lack of plate discipline, but it isn’t as if he’s had time to make proper adjustments yet, and the pitching he saw in Arizona was the best he’s seen in his life. The ceiling is the same as it was purported to be before he signed: power, speed, offensive performance similar to Carlos Gomez’s best years. There’s just more risk that Robert doesn’t get there.

50 FV Prospects

5. Dylan Cease, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2014 from Milton HS (GA) (CHC)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/60 45/50 40/45 95-98 / 101

Cease burst onto the scouting scene in 2013 when, as a junior in high school, he hit 96 mph and flashed an above average curveball at the heavily-scouted NHSI tournament in Cary, NC. He mostly held serve in his senior year, occasionally touching a tick or two higher or flashing 60 with his curveball, but was still a stuff over command type. The Cubs went well overslot to get Cease in the sixth round with a $1 million bonus, below what his talent was worth, but appropriate since clubs knew he needed Tommy John surgery right after he signed.

He’s slowly made progress in terms of starter traits during his pro career, while his velocity has increased to where he sits 95-98 mph now. In 2018, he took the biggest step forward, dominating High-A and Double-A at age 22, and some scouts are now projecting him as a No. 2 or 3 starter. We still aren’t completely convinced, as Cease is still control over command, and may fit best in a multi-inning relief role, or as a starter who doesn’t face any hitters a third time.

6. Dane Dunning, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Florida (WAS)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/60 50/55 50/55 90-93 / 94

Dunning was an intriguing projection arm in high school who flashed average stuff and had some athleticism. Then he took a big step forward in his freshman year at Florida. At his best, Dunning has three pitches that flash plus at times and starter command, but most often has above average stuff and good control, consistent with a No. 4 starter look. The Nationals took him in the late first round in 2016 despite him being the bullpen/midweek/spot starting utility knife on a loaded staff. He was in the Adam Eaton deal in 2018 and missed the second half of 2018 with an elbow strain, before tearing his UCL and having Tommy John during 2019 spring training. He’ll be back midway through 2020 and is likely to be pushed quickly to the big leagues if his stuff is back.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 40/55 50/45 40/40 50/50

When Micker Adolfo (often referred to by scouts as Micker Zapata while he was an amateur) was 14 years old, he moved from the Virgin Islands to the Dominican Republic to train for his future baseball career. Mostly due to his huge raw power, he signed for what was then a franchise IFA-record $1.6 million, a mark that has since been shattered by Luis Robert. Adolfo’s early career was mired in strikeouts and injury. He struck out at a 43% clip in his first season, missed most of 2015 due to a gruesome leg fracture, and then broke his hamate a month into 2016 and hit for no power after he returned.

While he continues to strike out at a somewhat troubling rate (30% combined over the last two seasons), Adolfo has performed each of the last two years despite playing through an elbow injury that required Tommy John in 2018. He’s grown into the power expected of him as an amateur and has slugged just shy of .460 as an age-appropriate regular at Low- and Hi-A. Back from Tommy John during the Spring of 2019, Adolfo looked buff, but stiff. The power is still there, but so too is the risk he ends up as a DH. One has to wonder if, through no fault of his own, the large swaths of inactivity throughout his career have led to an early tumble down the defensive spectrum. We still really like that power potential and are encouraged by the last two years of output. At this point, Adolfo’s tools probably are what they are (though perhaps some arm comes back further removed from surgery) and his statistical performance will drive his stock.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 45/50 60/60 40/45 60/60

Basabe shredded the Carolina League for the first two and a half months of 2018 — hitting .266/.370/.502 — then had one of the year’s most impressive feats of strength when he turned around a 102 mph Hunter Greene fastball at the Futures Game, and deposited it 10 rows deep to right-center field. His second half with Double-A Birmingham was less successful, and just as Basabe appeared to be adjusting to the better pitching in August, he would again struggle in the Arizona Fall League. Perhaps the most notable takeaway from the AFL is that Basabe’s instincts in center field are not great, and he may be better suited for a corner despite his speed. If that’s the case (it’d be fair to assume Basabe was gassed during the AFL and to just exclude that look from consideration) then the swing and miss aspect of the profile (27% K% last year) becomes a little scary. But Basabe has a potent collection of physical tools, he’s walked at an above-average clip, his modest power plays in games because he lifts the ball, and all of that should enable him to be a second division regular.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Chaminade Prep HS (CA) (NYY)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 30/45 50/45 40/50 45/45

Famous since his days as a high school underclassman, Rutherford was a likely over-slot target of teams picking early in round two of the 2016 draft, but the Yankees took him 18th overall and signed him for about $800,000 over slot. He had a strong track record of performance in high school, but concerns about his power projection arose during Rutherford’s first full season, when he slugged just .348. One could point to his age (Rutherford was as old as a junior college prospect on draft day) as an indicator that should have been tempered our expectations of his power growth in the first place. But really, Rutherford’s swing, while picturesque, is just geared for all-fields doubles. He has some low-ball, home run power to his pull side, but otherwise does damage peppering the gaps and third baseline. Half of his 2018 doubles were struck to left of center field. It’s not an ideal profile for a corner outfielder, but Rutherford is a likely big leaguer. We have him projected as a low-end regular.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from New Mexico (CHW)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 30/45 50/50 45/50 50/50

The quick-batted Gonzalez had a breakout 2018, with a 140 wRC+ during half seasons at Low- and Hi-A. He stands way off the dish, which creates some quality-of-contact limitations on pitches away from him in exchange for an ability to open up and turn on inside pitches with authority. It’s an approach that’s typically shiftable, but Gonzalez is also a good bunter and runs well to combat this. Like Rutherford ahead of him, it’s tough to project corner outfielders with middling power as average or better regulars. Rutherford is younger and perhaps has a better shot to grow into more, while Gonzalez has the superior feel for contact and might end up a 6 bat who doesn’t need to hit for power to profile. The two are pretty interchangeable depending on your preference.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Miami (CHW)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 45/50 20/20 40/40 50/50

We suppose Collins could catch on occasion, but he probably shouldn’t be back there every day due to issues with receiving and mobility. Despite only fitting at 1B/DH, Collins’ combination of power and on base ability make it likely that he finds his way into regular big league at-bats somewhere, especially if the DH is instituted in the National League. His 19% walk rate was among the best in the minors last year, and just 33% of Collins’ balls in play are on the ground. He’s a pretty good three true outcomes prospect, a bat-only 1-2 WAR player à la Josh Bell or Justin Bour, who we’ll likely see in the big leagues by 2020.

40+ FV Prospects

12. Jake Burger, 3B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Missouri State (CHW)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 60/60 40/55 45/30 40/45 60/60

Thick and tightly wound, Burger was already a tenuous bet to stay at third base for very long before he twice ruptured his Achilles tendon, once during a spring training game and again while rehabbing in late May. The 12 month timetable for return from Achilles tears was reset, and puts Burger on track to come back sometime in June. While there are questions about his defense, Burger was one of the top college bats in the 2017 class. He has quick, explosive hands that generate big bat speed, and he has unusual bat control for someone who swings as hard as he does. He has sizable ceiling, especially if he can find a way to stay at third base, but we just won’t know what kind of toll the injuries have taken until Burger starts playing games again. He’s a good bet to see time in the 2019 Arizona Fall League.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Oklahoma (CHW)
Age 22.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 30/50 50/45 45/50 45/45

It’s rare for there to be a college hitter with this kind of scintillating, violent bat speed, let alone one who’s overshadowed by an even toolsier teammate the way Walker was by Kyler Murray. Perhaps it was concerns about strikeouts, or the vague and mysterious injury bug that bit Walker during the Big 12 tournament, that caused him to fall out of the first round despite hitting .352/.441/.606 in a large conference. He’s an athletic swinger with a natural uppercut swing that seemed likely to help him lift the ball regularly, and the little bit of batted ball data we have from after Walker signed suggests that notion is correct. We’re doubtful that he stays in center field long term, but it’s hard to say that definitively because Walker lost reps there to Murray in college, and may yet develop better feel. He’s likely a big league regular if he can either stay in center or avoid perilously high strikeout rates, a star if he does both, and a corner platoon bat if he does neither.

40 FV Prospects

14. Jimmy Lambert, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Fresno State (CHW)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/55 50/55 45/50 91-94 / 95

Lambert’s strikeout rate exploded from 16% in 2017 to nearly 29% in 2018. The cause? A slight uptick in velocity paired with an arm slot change that has Lambert coming straight over the top, creating more life on his heater. It also creates more vertical action on his breaking stuff. This delivery appears tough to maintain, as Lambert has to contort his body to get to that slot, but he hasn’t been wild since making the change. His well-rounded collection of stuff plays much better like this, and Lambert now projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

Drafted: 12th Round, 2015 from San Diego State (CHW)
Age 25.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/45 30/30 45/45 50/50

Likely a long-time bat first, backup catcher, Zavala has some power, an average arm, and has worked hard to become a viable defensive catcher. Lauded for his makeup, Zavala got big and strong after he was drafted but appeared more lean and lithe this spring. He could get his first taste of the majors in 2019.

16. Tyler Johnson, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2017 from South Carolina (CHW)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 40/45 45/50 93-95 / 97

Yet another South Carolina Gamecock having success in pro ball, Johnson is a physical beast with big velocity. He struck out nearly 40% of opposing hitters in 2018 by relying heavily on the heater. Both his slider and changeup are serviceable, and Johnson projects in a middle relief role.

17. Gavin Sheets, 1B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Wake Forest (CHW)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 70/70 40/50 30/30 40/50 50/50

Likely in need of a swing change to profile at first, Sheets’ cut too often slices down at the baseball, and he can only get to his considerable raw power in certain parts of the strike zone. He has good bat control and makes mid-flight adjustments to breaking balls, which he has the raw strength to punish even if the timing of his lower half has been compromised. He’s a good hitter, just one we’re skeptical will clear the offensive bar at first base without trading some contact for power. Sheets is also another example of why we should be skeptical of hitters’ power numbers at Wake Forest.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Rice (CHW)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 40/45 50/55 45/50 89-93 / 95

In a starter/reliever grey area, Stephens doesn’t have the changeup quality typically desired from a starter, but he can back foot his breaking balls and work cut in on the hands of lefties, so the lack of change may not matter. His curveball, typically in the upper-70s, has premium raw spin; that pitch should alone carry him to a role on a big league staff. He spent 2018 with Triple-A Charlotte and is a strong multi-inning relief candidate.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Mississippi State (CHW)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 228 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 45/50 45/55 87-91 / 92

Pilkington missed an SEC bat per inning during his stay at Mississippi State, and seemed like a potentially quick-moving, low-variance backend starter prospect when the White Sox made him their third round pick last year. Physically mature and wielding vanilla stuff, Pilkington’s upside is limited, and most of his draft value was in perceived certainty. His stuff was sometimes down in the mid-80s during the 2019 spring, though. Ideally, he’ll move to the upper levels pretty quickly, assuming his velocity rebounds.

20. Alec Hansen, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Oklahoma (CHW)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 60/60 40/45 40/40 90-95 / 97

What a roller coaster of a career it has already been for Hansen, who looked like a possible top three pick as a college sophomore, faltered as a junior, appeared reborn once free of seemingly poor college instruction, then collapsed again in 2018 when he was hurt for a time (forearm) and had more walks than innings pitched.

At his best, Hansen will sit 94-97 early in starts and both his breaking balls will be plus. Last year his velo was down, sometimes into the upper-80s. Hansen is built like an Andean Condor, and it’s fair to anticipate mechanical consistency arriving late for an athlete built like that. But he turns 25 this year and even if his stuff bounces back, we think he’ll just end up in a relief role.

21. Zack Burdi, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Louisville (CHW)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/45 50/50 40/45 92-96 / 101

Burdi’s stuff was way down when he returned from Tommy John last year. He was 97-101 with a plus slider and changeup prior to his injury and at his ranking peak, was one of the few relief-only prospects who we considered a 50 FV prospect. During his AZL rehab outings and in the AFL, Burdi was often throwing just 92-94 and his slider’s spin rate dropped to 2200 rpm after spiraling in at 2700 rpm when he was healthy. He had to be shut down during the spring of 2019 spring and while we’re hopeful for an eventual bounce-back, Burdi’s future is murky.

22. Luis Mieses, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (CHW)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 50/50 20/50 45/40 45/45 45/45

An 18-year-old leviathan, Mieses is much more physical than his listed 180 pounds, and it’s shocking to watch him use his instincts and first step to close on balls in center field, even though he likely won’t play there for very long. He has exceptional hand-eye coordination and finds all sorts of ways to put the bat head on the ball but too often, he offers at pitcher’s pitches and settles for sub-optimal contact. He has a gorgeous, low-ball left-handed swing that could produce power if Miesis learned to attack the right pitches. The near bottom-of-the-scale walk rates each of his first two years are certainly a red flag, but Mieses’ size and hitting ability make him an intriguing, high-ceiling flier.

23. Codi Heuer, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Wichita State (CHW)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 40/45 50/55 50/55 45/55 92-95 / 96

Heuer spent his first two college seasons in the Wichita State bullpen but was frequently seen by draft room decision makers as a junior because they were in to see Alec Bohm and Greyson Jenista. His arm slot and spotty college fastball command made a bullpen projection popular, but because Heuer is a big-framed, cold weather (Colorado) high schooler who threw limited innings for two years in college, we’re a little more optimistic about him improving. He had a strong fall instructional league during which his mid-90s sinker worked as an effective precursor for a good changeup. He doesn’t have great breaking ball spin but at times his fastballs cut on him, and there might be a viable third pitch here that simply isn’t a traditional breaking ball. He’s likely a two-pitch reliever but in our estimation, there’s room for growth because of the background. He could be a workhorse backend starter.

35+ FV Prospects

24. Zach Thompson, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Texas-Arlington (CHW)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

You could argue Thompson belongs up with Jordan Stephens on this list, especially because Thompson doesn’t yet need to occupy a 40-man spot the way Stephens does, but even though they’re each likely to end up in the bullpen, Thompson is the one who has already moved. He sits 92-95 and has an above-average curveball, a pretty standard two-pitch middle relief mix.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from USC (CHW)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

It seems that, after his velocity yo-yo’d throughout college (probably due to inconsistent usage) and early as a pro, Flores’ fastball has settled in 89-92 range. It just means he’ll have to pitch off of his secondaries more, the best of which is a tilting, 2-to-7 curveball that spins in at about 2750 rpm. Flores will throw the curve in the zone for strikes or bounce it in the dirt to his glove side. He can also create good angle in on righties with what looks like a cutter. He’s at least strong rotation depth, if not just a good No. 5 starter.

Drafted: 22th Round, 2015 from UMass Lowell (CHW)
Age 25.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

There’s warranted age-based skepticism of Mendick’s numbers at Hi- and Double-A each of the last two years, but it’s encouraging that he had such a strong 2018 after a bad month and a half at Birmingham the year prior. He was similarly excellent during 2019 spring training, though most of his at-bats came against late-inning reserve arms. But as a versatile infielder with terrific control of the strike zone, Mendick is a very rosterable big leaguer who should give you good at-bats off the bench. His career peripherals are strong and may be an indication that we’re sleeping on him a bit because of his age.

27. Bryce Bush, RF
Drafted: 33th Round, 2018 from De La Salle Collegiate HS (MI) (CHW)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A late-round, cold-weather high school flier who signed for $290,000, Bush played in some of the big prep showcases during his final amateur summer, and was clearly overmatched against the better pitching. But he put on an absolute show during batting practice and has one of the best raw power projections among potential future Sox. He had a strong pro debut on paper and continued to look good with the bat during the spring of 2019. The general scouting consensus is that Bush will not stay at his current third base and will have to move to an outfield corner or first, which immediately makes Bush’s high school whiffs troublesome. He’s a high-risk, long-term developmental prospect with some of the louder offensive tools in the system.

28. Lenyn Sosa, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (CHW)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

While initial impressions of Sosa were that he had a shot to hit his way to an everyday gig at second base, continued evaluations indicate he may have sufficient instincts and footwork to remain at short despite limited straight-line speed. The bat control required for him to clear the middle infield offensive bar is there, but he’s not physically projectable, and needs to be more selective at the dish.

29. Ryan Burr, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Arizona State (ARI)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Burr is Arizona State’s all-time saves leader. He was 93-96 with an above-average slider almost every time out as a Sun Devil, but began experiencing wild fluctuations in velocity during his early time in pro ball. But in 2017, his stuff returned to its collegiate form; the Dbacks traded him for International bonus space, and Burr sped to the majors. He profiles as a standard, two-pitch reliever, but the velo fluctuation and 2016 injury dilute his FV a tad.

30. Ian Hamilton, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Washington State (CHW)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Hamilton has thrown very hard dating back to college and has maintained that kind of velo despite having one of the longer arm actions in baseball. His upper-80s slider is a gravity ball that spins at just 1600 rpm. It seems to work as long as Hamilton locates it, but his delivery is pretty hard to repeat. He profiles in middle relief as long as that weird slider plays against big league hitters.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Youth with Some Helium
Amado Nunez, 2B
Cabera Weaver, OF
Anderson Comas, OF
Lency Delgado, 3B
Josue Guerrero, OF

This is the most important group of the Others because any of them might be on the main section of the list by mid-season. Nunez can hit but will be limited to second base and his body is maxed out. He’ll need to develop a 6 bat, but he has a shot to get there. Weaver is a skinny 19-year-old with speed. He needs to get stronger. Comas has a big frame, and good hand-eye and bat control, but his swing is disconcertingly long. Delgado is built like a fullback and has some pop and a shot to stay at third base. Guerrero’s body has gone backwards since his amateur days but he’s still very young and was an interesting $1 million power projection signee not long ago.

A Carrying Tool
Laz Rivera, SS
Jameson Fisher, 1B/LF
Corey Zangari, 1B

Some teams like Rivera at shortstop and he can really swing it, but he’s too aggressive and probably maxes out as a utility guy. Fisher has great feel to hit but the college injury that contributed to his moving out from behind the plate turned out to be significant. Zangari has huge power but hasn’t played much in two years due to Tommy John.

Just a Bunch of Pitchers
Kodi Medeiros, LHP
A.J. Puckett, RHP
Luis Ledo, RHP
Jason Bilous, RHP
Lincoln Henzman, RHP

Medeiros is a low slot lefty with a good slider. That may not be enough once new pitcher usage rules are implemented next year. Puckett has backend stuff but is 24 and had TJ this spring. Ledo has been into the mid-90s and flashes a plus split. Bilous would do that in college but has been more 90-92 as a pro. Henzman could have a 55 slider at maturity and pitch in a bullpen.

System Overview

This system has dealt with an unusual number of severe injuries — with several TJs, including two to positions players, plus Burger’s Achilles and Luis Robert’s thumb injuries — but it’s hard not to note that most of the name prospects the Sox have acquired have fallen a little short of expectations. Most of them are still very young, but Moncada’s contact issues are concerning, Lucas Giolito’s stuff has been all over the place, Reynaldo Lopez has been erratic, and several of the pitchers are throwing a little less hard now than they were in prior years.

That reads like finger pointing at player dev, but Chris Getz has only been running that department since the fall of 2016 and if we don’t count the guys who have been hurt badly during his tenure, there are more stock up players during that span (Lambert for sure, plus Zavala, and we’d say Gonzalez though it seems like he was in some teams’ late first round mix and it’s possible we were just light on him as an amateur) than there are instances of frustration (Sheets would ideally have more lift, and spring looks at Pilkington indicate he may have backed up). With that in mind, the players to watch are the 2017 July 2 signees and the 2018 high schoolers (Mieses, Bush, Delgado, Cabrera, Comas), since it’s the first talent Getz and Co. will get to mold from such an age, as Chicago has been college-heavy in recent drafts.

This system is top-heavy, with potential stars leading the way and very little in the way of depth beyond those few names, though the group of recent high school selections in the 35+ FV tier and Others of Note should yield a gem or two. The third overall pick in the draft will help replace some of the clout lost when Eloy graduates, and it’s possible that some of the veterans on expiring deals (Jose Abreu, Ivan Nova, Yonder Alonso, Welington Castillo) could net something at the trade deadline.


Top 26 Prospects: Detroit Tigers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Tigers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Casey Mize 21.9 A+ RHP 2019 55
2 Matt Manning 21.2 AA RHP 2021 50
3 Daz Cameron 22.2 AAA CF 2020 50
4 Isaac Paredes 20.1 AA 3B 2021 50
5 Franklin Perez 21.3 AA RHP 2021 45+
6 Christin Stewart 25.3 MLB DH 2019 45
7 Willi Castro 21.9 AAA SS 2020 45
8 Wenceel Perez 19.4 A SS 2023 45
9 Beau Burrows 22.5 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Parker Meadows 19.4 A- CF 2022 40+
11 Kyle Funkhouser 25.0 AAA RHP 2019 40
12 Jake Rogers 23.9 AA C 2020 40
13 Elvin Rodriguez 21.0 A RHP 2021 40
14 Carlos Guzman 20.9 A+ RHP 2022 40
15 Alex Faedo 23.4 AA RHP 2020 40
16 Sergio Alcantara 22.7 AA SS 2019 40
17 Kody Clemens 22.9 A+ 2B 2021 40
18 Spencer Turnbull 26.6 MLB RHP 2019 40
19 Anthony Castro 24.0 AA RHP 2020 40
20 Bryan Garcia 23.9 AAA RHP 2020 40
21 Adinso Reyes 17.4 R 3B 2024 40
22 Derek Hill 23.2 A+ CF 2021 40
23 Reed Garrett 26.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
24 Dawel Lugo 24.2 MLB 2B 2019 35+
25 Matt Hall 25.7 MLB LHP 2019 35+
26 Gregory Soto 24.1 A+ LHP 2021 35+
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55 FV Prospects

1. Casey Mize, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Auburn (DET)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 55/60 60/65 50/55 92-96 / 97

Mize was a midrange projection arm in high school and broke out on the Cape after his freshman year at Auburn. He looked like a mid-first rounder after his sophomore year and subsequent summer with collegiate Team USA, then took a giant leap forward in his draft spring, which led to Detroit taking him first overall. His command improved and he added an 87-90 mph cutter that quickly became a plus pitch, to pair with his mid-90’s fastball, above average slider, and plus splitter. After pitching for Team USA the summer before the draft, Mize got a PRP injection in his pitching elbow. Some teams had concerns about his shoulder in high school, and he also missed time a sophomore at Auburn with forearm tightness.

Mize has some violence to his delivery and isn’t the prototypical projectable plus athlete you normally see at the top of the draft. There’s also some anecdotal evidence suggesting heavy cutter usage leads to diminished velocity. These are all things to make you wonder how Mize projects, but right now he may be able to pitch in the big leagues, with some mentioning Aaron Nola as the type of pitcher he could become. He’s already made an adjustment to his slider that has given the pitch more verticle depth, like a slurve, which adds a new movement wrinkle to his mix. He doesn’t really fit Detroit’s timeline for contention, and may not be as good in his sixth year of control as he’ll be in his second, so many have openly wondered if Mize becomes a trade chip once he succeeds in the big leagues. That’s a good problem to have for a big league club in need of top shelf talent; Mize may give them that as soon as 2019.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Sheldon HS (CA) (DET)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/50 40/45 93-97 / 98

Manning entered his senior year of high school as a talented two-sport project with a, having size and arm speed, but inconsistent command, offspeed stuff, and somewhat strange east/west elements to his delivery. His superior athleticism shone through in the spring, along with improved direction to the plate, and the Tigers popped him ninth overall in 2016 with an eye toward Manning becoming a frontline starter.

Early in pro ball, Manning had some real trouble with strike-throwing, then slowly settled in. He has two easy plus pitches in his fastball and curveball, but his changeup is almost always below average, and his command comes and goes. His fastball plays up due to his excellent extension, but he gets so much extension that he overstrides and it reduces the amount of feel he has, both in his changeup and command. If Manning can dial down the aggression in his delivery a bit, the starter traits should come to the forefront and give the Tigers a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Eagle’s Landing Christian HS (GA) (HOU)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 40/45 50/55 50/55 50/50

Cameron stood out as one of the top players in his class as early as a freshman in high school, and the fact that he’s the son of Mike Cameron didn’t hurt, either. Daz was an elite talent early on in his own right, but the rest of his draft class slowly caught up and by his draft year, he was one of the top dozen or so prep bats, rather than the clear top talent. The questions then are still largely the questions now: he’s a plus runner who can play a solid center field with average raw power, but scouts question how much offensive impact there will be. Cameron has already surpassed the expectations that pessimistic scouts had for him as an amateur, but even scouts that like him now say he’s a potential low-end regular, possibly in the Keon Broxton mold, or even a poor man’s version of his father. He just turned 22 and will likely spend 2019 in the upper levels with an eye toward sticking in the big leagues in 2020.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Mexico (CHC)
Age 20.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 50/50 45/50 40/30 40/45 55/55

It’s hard to quibble with Paredes’ stellar 2018. He hit .278/.359/.456 across two levels, and reached and performed at Double-A Erie as a 19-year-old. He’s been drawing trade interest since the moment he set foot on the Cubs complex in 2016 due to his very mature feel to hit, which belies his age. Despite this, there are concerns about Paredes. He already has a catcherly build as a teenager and though he has spent the bulk of his pro innings at shortstop, he’s not going to stay there and probably won’t end up on the middle infield at all. He may eventually have to try to catch (which would slow his development, or the grind may dilute his offensive production) or move to first base, where he saw some reps in the Mexican League this offseason. The instability on defense is concerning even though everyone loves Paredes’ bat. We think he’ll be an average everyday player for a while but aren’t sure about his longevity.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (HOU)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 197 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/60 45/50 55/60 40/50 93-96 / 97

Perez’s first few pro seasons were notable because of how quickly Houston pushed him through the minors. A polished strike-thrower with four good pitches, he reached Double-A as a 19-year-old back in 2017 before he became the centerpiece of the Justin Verlander deal. Advanced though he was, various injuries have robbed Perez of innings. He has yet to throw more than 86 frames in an entire season, so while he may be fairly advanced for someone his age, and definitely for someone who has pitched so little, the industry has yet to see his stuff hold up for a whole summer of starter’s innings.

In 2016, he had knee trouble; in 2018, it was a lat strain, then shoulder inflammation. An ominous trap issue popped up during the early parts of 2019 spring training but Perez was back on the mound quickly and sitting his usual 93-96 into late-March. A strong-bodied 21-year-old, the cement is likely dry on Perez’s stuff. His high three-quarters slot creates ride to his fastball as well as downward vertical action on his curveball, and those two traits typically pair well together. While Perez’s curveball is his prettiest pitch, his best secondary offering is the changeup. There are times when Perez will come across the baseball and create screwball action on the change, and it runs, sometimes unhittably, onto the glove side corner of the plate. But mostly, it’s used as a swing-and-miss pitch that bottoms out beneath the strike zone just as it reaches the plate. Perez has mid-rotation stuff and strike-throwing ability, but needs a fully healthy season to be valued at that level across the league.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Tennessee (DET)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 65/65 55/60 40/40 30/30 40/40

Stewart has now hit for big power and walked at an above-average clip for five consecutive years, dating back to his junior season at Tennessee. He’s averaged 25 homers annually during that span and there’s lots of other evidence — signs like a consistently low ground ball rate and the raw thump he shows in BP — supporting what seems to be a safe, pretty impactful offensive profile. Stewart will most certainly give back some value on defense as he’s not a good defensive outfielder and probably belongs at DH. The predicament in Detroit is that so too do many of their other hitters, even though Victor Martinez has retired. And so Stewart will likely slowly prowl left field early in his career, and perhaps move to DH once Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos move on. He’s already 25, so while we think Stewart will hit like a good team’s 4-, 5- or 6-hole hitter for a while, this type of profile typically doesn’t age well, which, along with the defensive limitations, had us round down our projections a little bit.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (CLE)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 45/45 20/45 55/55 50/55 55/55

Francisco Lindor’s presence in Cleveland made the fast-approaching Castro expendable in trade, and Cleveland sent him to Detroit for Leonys Martin at the 2018 deadline. A 2017 breakout that saw Castro slug .424 at Hi-A Lynchburg seemed to be a mirage when he hit just .245/.303/.350 for three months at Double-A Akron (that power output is closer to career norms), but after the trade Castro slugged .562 and his ground ball rate dropped from 44% to 33% in about a 100 balls-in-play sample, which should be fairly stable. If there’s suddenly more lift here then Castro could be a top 100 prospect by mid year. He’s going to stay at short (plus range, average hands, above-average arm) but the average big league shortstop had a 95 wRC+ last year and Castro is a very aggressive hitter likely to run below-average OBPs. If there’s been a swing change (his swing with Cleveland was not conducive of power) then extra pop might propel Castro toward regular playing time. If not, he’s a low-end everyday player or utility man.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/45 20/40 60/60 40/50 50/55

Perez signed for $550,000 in 2016 and fits the Detroit mold of international signings: shortstops signed for middle-tier bonuses with a tool or two and feel for the game. He had a breakout in 2018 as he gained strength, and it allowed his offensive game to be more well-rounded without costing him a step of speed. He isn’t a slam dunk to stick at shortstop, but will be solid at second base if it doesn’t work out. The upside isn’t enormous as it’s a contact profile with below average power, some speed, and a middle infield position, but those types turn into a 60 PV/FV every now and then (and Jose Ramirez sometimes, too), so we sit up in our chairs when we see a young hitter with this profile. Detroit doesn’t look scared to promote Perez aggressively, so he may play at both A-Ball levels at age 19 with a strong 2019 campaign.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Weatherford HS (TX) (DET)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 50/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

Burrows was on the scouting radar early in his prep career when he was hitting the mid-90s at tournaments after his sophomore year of high school. He had an extreme spine tilt at this point, bending his upper body at an almost 45-degree angle toward first base when he released the ball, but his breaking ball was above average and his strike-throwing wasn’t bad. As he entered pro ball, the Tigers worked on fixing this posture issue as they saw their first rounder as a potential mid-rotation starter. Since then, his stuff has ranged from being flat to regressing a bit. We can’t say the lower effort is directly leading to the stuff not holding, but some pitchers have to dial things back a bit to pitch like a starter needs to and Burrows appears to be one of them.

As many power prep arms learning to become starters do, Burrows’ breaker has become closer to average while his changeup is now the superior pitch (Ian Anderson is another example) and the upside is now more of a fourth starter. The just-okay numbers in Double-A indicate that Burrows either shouldn’t be working at the top of the zone or doesn’t yet have the combination of command and sequencing to make it work.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Grayson HS (GA) (DET)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 55/60 20/50 70/65 45/55 55/55

The younger brother of Rays outfielder Austin Meadows, Parker has some similarities to his big league sibling, but his tools are actually compared more often to those of Indians center fielder Bradley Zimmer. Zimmer and the younger Meadows both have deceptively easy speed due to their long frames, each has a plus arm, plus raw power, and long limbs that create contact issues at the plate. Meadows had some track record of hitting elite prep pitching over the summer months of the scouting calendar, but some amateur departments were turned off by his lack of rhythm in the batter’s box, and he slipped to round two on draft day even though he was in the mix for some teams picking in the 20s. He’s a typical high risk/high reward high school prospect, with even more upside than his brother, now a major leaguer.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Louisville (DET)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/55 45/50 40/50 92-94 / 97

Funkhouser was a classic Louisville recruit who wasn’t touted much at a Midwestern high school, then stood out immediately on campus as an early-round pick. He didn’t sign as a first rounder in 2015, then had a down season and signed as a fourth rounder in 2016. At his best, Funkhouser shows a 55 or 60 fastball and curveball along with an average changeup and command, for a No. 3 or 4 starter type profile. He did that for most of 2015, which led to being a first round pick, then was less consistent from that point forward. We think he’s about as good as Spencer Turnbull, as a stuff-first righty who’s close to the majors and either a depth starter, multi-inning reliever, or high leverage piece, but more a role player piece than a core starter type.

12. Jake Rogers, C
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Tulane (HOU)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 40/50 40/40 55/60 60/60

A polished receiver and cat-like ball-blocker with a laser arm, Rogers was one of this century’s best defensive amateur backstops while at Tulane. He fell to round three of his draft because of concerns about his bat, concerns that turned out to be well-founded, as Rogers had stark contact issues last year when he was tested at Double-A and the Fall League. A pairing of patience and pull power probably provides Rogers with a shot to approach the low offensive bar at the catcher position. He might hit .220 but still yank out 15 annual homers, walk a bunch, and end up hitting well-enough to play every day for someone. His glove alone makes him a high-probability big leaguer, at least as an uber-gloved backup.

13. Elvin Rodriguez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 45/55 40/50 89-92 / 94

Acquired in the Justin Upton swap, the wispy Rodriguez has three average pitches that could continue to improve either through reps and improved feel (the changeup), or mature physicality (the fastball). His 11-7 curveball has good shape, depth, and bite, his delivery is graceful, smooth, and repeatable. Stagnant development likely leaves Rodriguez with a collection of 50-grade pitches and command, relegating him to the No. 5 starter realm. But while you can quibble about which areas he’s most likely to improve (at age 21, the body and velocity may be done growing), it seems likely that some of the stuff will due to the frame, delivery, and athleticism.

14. Carlos Guzman, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (DET)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 40/50 50/60 35/50 91-95 / 97

Guzman spent his first two pro seasons hitting .144 before the Tigers decided to move him from the infield to the mound, a decision that now looks brilliant after Guzman’s breakout 2018. With just 25 innings of affiliate experience to his name, Guzman went to the college prospect-laden New York-Penn League as a 20-year-old and struck out a batter per inning over 12 starts, while walking just 14 hitters all summer.

He is an exceptional on-mound athlete, who quickly took to an impact, low-80s changeup, which has bat-missing tail. A narrow, smallish frame and Guzman’s tendency to baby his offspeed stuff into the zone are present issues, but the latter of these should be remedied with time and experience. Guzman has a bad breaking ball, and while breaking ball quality typically isn’t something that improves very much over time, Guzman is so new to pitching that he may not yet have the right feel/grip on his breaker. The spin rate on his low-80s slider is beneath that of his fastball. Typically the inverse is true, and it’s a sign that there’s probably a grip issue, something that can be remedied. We’ll see how the body and stuff develop, but Guzman is pretty exciting and has a shot to eventually be a No. 4 starter if you’re willing to project lots of late-arriving attributes because of his athleticism and background.

15. Alex Faedo, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Florida (DET)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/55 40/45 50/55 89-92 / 94

While his fastball has bounced back into the low-90s after sitting in the upper-80s at times last year, we still have concerns about how it’s going to play against big league hitters because Faedo is such a short strider. He only gets about five feet worth of extension on all his pitches, impacting his fastball’s perceived velocity quite significantly. There’s a chance it plays like a 40 fastball, even though its velo has rebounded some. Faedo’s funky low slot may flummox hitters enough to counterbalance his lack of extension somewhat, and it no doubt helps him create bat-missing action on his slider, which is excellent. He had several years of success against SEC hitting, and is a crafty sequencer. There are things to like, and some teams think Faedo is a high probability No. 4 or 5 starter, but we consider the velo fluctuation, lack of extension, and Faedo’s multiple knee surgeries, to be long term concerns.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 22.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 30/30 20/30 50/50 50/60 70/70

It’s easy to fall in love with Alcantara after just watching him take infield. Not only is he coordinated and acrobatic, but his throws to first sizzle through the air, even with just a flick of his wrist. He has one of the best infield arms in the minors and should be an above-average defender at maturity. At the plate, he lacks even a modicum of strength and has near bottom-of-the-scale power from both sides of the plate. He’s a competent slash and dash hitter, but that’s becoming less common, even at shortstop. Tigers fans who visit this site are likely acquainted with Jose Iglesias‘ player page. Iglesias was a better defender than Alcantara (and, well, just about everybody) and had better feel for contact with similar power, and is someone we’d ideally have as a 45 or 50 on prospect lists based on his’ WAR production. Logically, Alcantara needs to be beneath those tiers. He could be a speedy, versatile bench infielder for a long time, though.

17. Kody Clemens, 2B
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Texas (DET)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/50 45/45 40/45 50/50

Clemens got white-hot during the Longhorns 2018 postseason run and hit .419/.536/1.000 in the team’s eight NCAA tournament games, boosting his junior-year line to .351/.444/.726 with 24 homers, which ranked second in the country. The Tigers made him the top pick on Day Two of the 2018 draft and he finished the year with a strong month and a half at Low-A, often against pitching worse than what he faced in college.

He has a very pretty left-handed swing and can move the bat head around the zone, but Clemens doesn’t always track or diagnose pitches well. He may be a swing-and-miss risk against better pro pitching, but what he does may still be enough at second base, assuming Clemens can stay there. At best, teams think he’ll be an inoffensive second baseman, with some projecting Clemens to third base or an outfield corner. One source compared him to current 50 FV prospect Shed Long. That type of outcome — a compact body with power, some issues against breaking stuff, below average defense but at a premium position — would be a good outcome for a third rounder.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Alabama (DET)
Age 26.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 45/50 55/60 40/45 93-95 / 97

Turnbull has always thrown hard, been more stuff than command, and had a sturdy workhorse type build. Like Sean Newcomb, his delivery is easy but the command has never quite been there to project as a long-term starter. He’ll start the year in the Tigers rotation, but we think he’ll end up being better suited to a multi-inning or high leverage relief role in the end. Turnbull works in the mid-90s with sink, and his slider and cutter are both above average to plus. But the changeup and command are both average at best, along with a show-me curveball. He’s likely to return some cost-effective value in the next few seasons for the rebuilding Tigers, but we’d expect the contributions of a role player more than those of a potential building block.

19. Anthony Castro, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela (DET)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/65 55/60 40/45 45/55 40/45 91-95 / 98

Castro signed in 2011 but didn’t make his full-season debut until 2017, after a 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s been a starter that whole time, but it sounds like he’ll move to relief this year, which has always seemed like the best use of his ability. In shorter stints, he sits 95-98 and hits 99 mph with a breaking ball that flashes 60. His changeup will flash 50 at times but it’s too firm and inconsistent. Castro tinkered with a splitter that flashed 55, but he isn’t confident in his feel for it yet and it’ll always be a third pitch, which he may need only occasionally in relief.

20. Bryan Garcia, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Miami (DET)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 203 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 98

The career saves leader at Miami, Garcia tore through the minors and pitched across four levels, all the way to Triple-A, in his first full pro season. Then he blew out during the spring of 2018 and likely won’t be back on any mound, let alone a big league one, until the middle of 2019. A three-quarters slinger with mid-90s heat, Garcia also has a plus slider, and we think the movement profile on the fastball mimics his changeup in such a way that the cambio will be serviceable, as well. He could be a late-inning, three-pitch reliever, assuming his stuff comes back after the surgery.

21. Adinso Reyes, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 17.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/55 20/50 50/45 40/50 50/50

Signed for just shy of $1.5 million in July of 2018, Reyes is a physical projection third base prospect. Of all the players from the 2018 July 2 class who will almost certainly end up in a corner, Reyes was our highest ranked. He has an athletic, rotational swing, plus bat speed, his bat path has some natural lift, and he has a frame that appears destined to add considerable mass and strength. Arm accuracy and mobility issues, especially as he gets bigger, could move Reyes down the defensive spectrum, but he could end up with above or plus hit and power tools.

22. Derek Hill, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Elk Grove HS (CA) (DET)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 50/50 20/45 70/70 50/55 50/50

Despite the small balls-in-play sample, Hill’s stark drop in groundball rate from 2016 to 2017 gave us great hope for his offensive potential and had us buying in to his short-lived power output. While he continued to lift the ball more in 2018, the game power returned to career norms, way down in the .079 ISO, .318 SLG area. Hill remains fleet of foot and is a reputable defensive center fielder. That alone should earn him a big league bench outfield role at some point (he’s not on the 40-man yet), but we got ahead of ourselves last year with regards to his bat, which is likely too light for Hill to be an everyday player.

23. Reed Garrett, RHP
Drafted: 16th Round, 2014 from Virginia Military Institute (TEX)
Age 26.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 40/45 45/45 95-97 / 98

The team’s Rule 5 pick, Garrett made the club out of spring training and has pretty traditional middle relief stuff. He sits in the mid-90s, has an above-average slider that has vertical depth despite being in the mid-80s, and he spent the last two seasons closing for Texas’ Double and Triple-A clubs. He has erratic fastball command, which might undercut stuff that would otherwise fit in a set-up role, but that stuff might improve with a change of scenery.

35+ FV Prospects

24. Dawel Lugo, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lugo’s blend of bat speed and bat control has long made him a prospect of note, and at times he’s looked like a future high-contact, multi-positional role player. But at age 24, Lugo’s willingness to swing at most of what he sees is still a problem impacting his ability to reach base, as well as the quality of his contact. He struggles to lay off of breaking balls, he ends up topping pitches into the ground, and the bat control alone may not be sufficient to keep Lugo afloat at second or third. But you also can’t teach this kind of feel for contact, and perhaps a swing change that moves the game power is still a possibility, though the arrow is clearly pointing down.

25. Matt Hall, LHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from Missouri State (DET)
Age 25.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Hall has a dandy 12-6 breaking ball that spin in at an average of 2850 rpm and while he only throws 88-91, he gets good extension and his fastball plays up enough to be viable. He’s going to pitch heavily off of that plus curveball and likely fit in a middle relief role, though breaking ball-only lefties are an endangered species.

26. Gregory Soto, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (DET)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Three-pitch lefties with mid-90s heat always have a shot, so while Soto’s walk rate remains a disconcerting 13%, the fact that he showed 96 with an occasionally good changeup and breaking ball means he’s still pretty interesting. His arm action is so long that it needs to be split into two movies and while that is probably part of why he so badly struggles to throw strikes, it also makes him really tough on left-handed hitters. The existence of three pitches (the fastball, an upper-80s change, low-80s slurve) better positions Soto for the three-batter minimum rule, but he still needs to throw more strikes or he’s just upper-level depth.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Bench Outfield Types
Kingston Liniak, CF
Dustin Peterson, LF
Brock Deatherage, CF
Jacob Robson, CF
Danny Woodrow, CF
Troy Montgomery, CF

Most of these guys can run. Liniak is the youngest and has the best chance to grow into some power. Peterson could impact the big league club this year and might hit enough to be a right-handed bench piece for a while. Deatherage was a college draftee who put up huge numbers in rookie ball, but struck out 25% of the time as a 22-year-old and is due for a huge BABIP regression, so we’re skeptical of his hot pro start. Plate discipline (Robson), speed (Woodrow), and sneaky pop (Montgomery) could propel any of the others into a bench outfield role.

Recent July Twos
Alvaro Gonzalez, SS
Jose De La Cruz, RF

Gonzalez signed in 2017 and is a natural shortstop who likely needs to grow into some offensive ability to profile. De La Cruz is a corner outfield projection bat who makes up for limited athleticism with advanced feel to hit.

Starters
Wilkel Hernandez, RHP
Logan Shore, RHP
Tyler Alexander, LHP
Adam Wolf, LHP

Wilkel came over from the Angels in the Ian Kinsler deal. He’s a somewhat projectable 20-year old with a chance for fifth starter stuff. His curveball has good shape but needs more power. Shore is a changeup artist with a 4 fastball. Alexander throws strikes and eats innings and is a good bet to at least be a sixth starter type of depth arm. A similar role likely awaits Wolf, whose best pitch is a cutter.

Relievers
Jason Foley, RHP
Nolan Blackwood, RHP
Eduardo Jimenez, RHP
Zac Houston, RHP
Sandy Baez, RHP
Gerson Moreno, RHP
Wladimir Pinto, RHP
Tarik Skubal, LHP

Foley is coming back from TJ, and would flash upper-90s heat and a good changeup before his injury. He’s still just 23. Blackwood is a sinkerballing submariner. Jimenez, Houston, and Baez are all possible 55 fastball, 55 slider middle relief fits. Moreno, too, but he’s coming off TJ. Pinto throws really hard — in the mid-90s — but that’s about it right now. Skubal was hurt for his junior year at Seattle University and looked good in bullpens before the draft but nobody would meet his ask. He went back to school and was very wild, then dominated in pro ball after signing by throwing about 80% fastballs. He’s a ground-up rebuild who had third round stuff at his best in college.

System Overview

The Tigers have shifted in recent years from a win-now, trade prospects and spend money approach, to an asset collection, hold prospects, and save money approach. The shift from trading many of their top homegrown talents to keeping them could change the fortunes of the farm eventually, but it hasn’t quite done that yet. Casey Mize will likely get to the big leagues soon, so he’s likely be on this list one more time at most. Matt Manning hasn’t had his breakthrough yet, most industry opinions have Daz Cameron as a low-end regular, and there are still plenty of questions about the ultimate upside of Isaac Paredes and the health of Franklin Perez. For the top of the system of a rebuilding club, that isn’t a particularly strong top of the list. The depth is fine, but depth doesn’t really matter when the first priority is creating the core of your future playoff team.

The fifth and 47th picks in this year’s draft will be nice assets to add, but the big league club isn’t overflowing with core talent, either. Michael Fulmer looked like he could be one, but he’s down for the year with elbow surgery. Nick Castellanos is likely to be traded if and when he performs well. There are some solid complementary pieces in Jeimer Candelario, Matt Boyd, Joe Jimenez and Shane Greene, but the focus here needs to be both adding to the talent base and developing the existing talent better. Clubs like the Dodgers, Brewers, and Yankees seem to be creating contributors out of thin air and those are increasingly the table stakes in player development, with many other teams spending resources to join those leaders. The Tigers appear to be more on the traditional end of things in most departments — not wrong, just more traditional — and the rebuild will need player procurement and development to both take a step forward.