Archive for Prospects Report 2019

Top 38 Prospects: Texas Rangers

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Texas Rangers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Rangers Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Cole Winn 19.3 R RHP 2021 50
2 Leody Taveras 20.5 A+ CF 2020 50
3 Bubba Thompson 20.8 A CF 2022 50
4 Anderson Tejeda 20.9 A+ SS 2021 45+
5 Hans Crouse 20.5 A RHP 2021 45
6 Joe Palumbo 24.4 AA LHP 2020 45
7 Cole Ragans 21.3 A- LHP 2021 45
8 Owen White 19.6 R RHP 2022 45
9 Taylor Hearn 24.6 AA LHP 2019 45
10 Julio Pablo Martinez 23.0 A- CF 2021 45
11 Jonathan Ornelas 18.8 R SS 2022 40+
12 Chris Seise 20.2 A- SS 2022 40+
13 Sherten Apostel 20.0 A- 3B 2022 40+
14 Yerry Rodriguez 21.4 A- RHP 2022 40+
15 Keithron Moss 17.6 R SS 2023 40+
16 Brock Burke 22.6 AA LHP 2020 40+
17 Tyler Phillips 21.4 A+ RHP 2021 40+
18 Pedro Gonzalez 21.4 A CF 2022 40
19 Jonathan Hernandez 22.7 AA RHP 2020 40
20 Ronny Henriquez 18.8 R RHP 2023 40
21 Emmanuel Clase 21.0 A- RHP 2020 40
22 C.D. Pelham 24.1 MLB LHP 2019 40
23 A.J. Alexy 20.9 A RHP 2022 40
24 Eli White 24.7 AA UTIL 2020 40
25 Brett Martin 23.9 AA LHP 2019 40
26 Brendon Davis 21.7 A+ 3B 2021 40
27 David Garcia 19.1 R C 2022 40
28 Demarcus Evans 22.4 A RHP 2020 40
29 Jeffrey Springs 26.5 MLB LHP 2019 40
30 Alex Speas 21.1 A RHP 2022 40
31 Kyle Cody 24.6 A+ RHP 2020 40
32 Diosbel Arias 22.7 A- UTIL 2021 35+
33 Michael Matuella 24.8 A+ RHP 2019 35+
34 Jayce Easley 19.6 R SS 2023 35+
35 Frainyer Chavez 19.8 R SS 2021 35+
36 Yohander Mendez 24.2 MLB LHP 2019 35+
37 Yohel Pozo 21.8 A C 2021 35+
38 Jose Rodriguez 17.5 R C 2024 35+
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50 FV Prospects

1. Cole Winn, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Orange Lutheran HS (CA) (TEX)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/50 50/60 45/50 45/55 92-95 / 97

Before his senior year in high school, Winn moved from Colorado to Orange Lutheran, a powerhouse program in southern California. He steadily crept up boards in the spring as his stuff and command kept impressing, overriding concerns that he didn’t have much projection or plus athleticism.

Winn works 92-95, and hits 97 mph, with a flat-planed, rising fastball that fits well up in the strike zone and he mixes in a plus-flashing curveball that pairs well with it down in the strike zone. He also has an average slider and changeup, though there’s a chance the change grows into a plus offering at some point. His command projects to be above average, as he already uses his smooth delivery to deliver pitches to fine locations rather than just over the plate. He was largely seen as the safest pick amongst the 2018 prep pitchers, a notoriously risky demographic. Texas has a deliberate approach to developing prep pitching with an onboarding process that includes a pro debut in instructional league, so Winn’s actual regular season pro debut will come in 2019. He was throwing hard in the fall and could move quickly through the minors.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 50/55 30/40 60/60 45/55 55/55

It’s growing more difficult to reconcile Taveras’ obvious physical tool with his complete lack of performance, even though he has been young for his level since his pro debut. He put on a show during Futures Game BP (though, somewhat suspiciously, everyone did), he has visually evident feel for contact supported by his lower strikeout rates, he runs well-enough to stay in center field. But in three pro seasons now he’s hitting a collective .253/.315/.351 and it’s starting to make teams antsy. When we passed around initial drafts of our Top 100, all but one source providing feedback on Taveras’ ranking told us to move him down, some indicating he should be off, entirely. We still think he’d go somewhere in the first round were he draft eligible and that he has everyday tools, but so far as his stock throughout the industry is concerned, the clock is certainly ticking.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from McGill-Toolen HS (AL) (TEX)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/55 30/50 70/70 45/55 50/50

Thompson played through some nagging lower body issues during his pro debut, which somewhat masked the physical tools that had so enamored amateur scouts during the spring. He got to camp early the following spring. It was assumed that Thompson, who was a pretty raw baseball player due to his two-sport high school background, would stay in Arizona during extended spring training, then head to an advanced rookie affiliate in the Northwest League. Instead, Texas sent him to Low-A and he had a surprisingly strong statistical year (.289/.344/.446) with an unsurprisingly high strikeout rate (29%).

Like many of the power/speed center fielders on this list, Thompson is a high-risk prospect with big upside if he hits enough. Unlike several of them, he has a good statistical season on his resume.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 20.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 40/55 55/55 45/50 60/60

It’s helpful to use the draft as a way of gauging where pro prospects fall on the FV continuum, and it’s easier to do that when the player in question is of the appropriate age. On the brink of 21, Tejeda is the age of draftable college players. Coincidentally, this year’s draft has a similar type of talent who is similarly aged in UNC-Wilmington shortstop, Greg Jones. Both Tejeda and Jones are speedy shortstops with rare power for the position who also have issues making contact. Tejeda is rangy and athletic, and has good defensive footwork and plenty of arm for the infield’s left side. His hands are just okay, so evaluations of his defense can vary depending on what individual scouts think is important to play the position, and some teams want to see him tried in center field.

Tejeda has plus-plus bat speed and his hands work in a tight, lift-friendly circle, but he’s so explosive that at times he’s out of control (this is where the strikeouts come from). He managed to get to the power at Hi-A in 2018, when he homered 19 times, and if he can stay at shortstop and continue to mash like that in games, he’ll be a good everyday player. We have Greg Jones in the 45 FV tier of the 2019 draft, which puts him in the mid-to-late first round; we like Tejeda a bit more than that and think he’d be in the 10-15 range on a draft board. He’ll move into the top 100 with continued statistical success at Double-A.

45 FV Prospects

5. Hans Crouse, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Dana Hills HS (CA) (TEX)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/70 45/55 40/45 94-97 / 102

Slowed by biceps tendinitis in the spring, Crouse’s stuff was fine when he returned. He was touching 99 while throwing live BP, and sitting 92-96 during his starts in extended spring training. His 13-start Northwest/Sally League tour, during which he walked just 19 in 54 innings, was the first step toward quelling concerns about his viability as a starter, though we’re still somewhat apprehensive here at FanGraphs.

Crouse’s repertoire depth is not the issue. Based on his pitch usage during instructional league, his changeup seemed to be a developmental priority, and he has indeed made progress with it. It now comfortably projects to average, while Crouse’s fastball/breaking ball combination has been excellent since he was a high school underclassman. He incorporates all kinds of crafty veteran wrinkles into his delivery’s cadence on occasion. An extra shoulder wiggle, a Travoltaian gyration of the hips, the occasional quick-pitch — all sorts of things designed to take hitters by surprise. Scouts often sentence quirky, visibly fiery and emotional hurlers to late-inning duty, and we do think Crouse would thrive in such a role, but view these traits as positives. Crouse has a unique build and delivery, and is a very short strider whose 5-foot-4 extension sucks some of the perceived velo out of his fastball. This, plus the lower slot, might make him unusually vulnerable to lefties despite his velocity. This, his brief injury history, and still fringy command all contribute to a bundle of relief risk in our opinion.

6. Joe Palumbo, LHP
Drafted: 30th Round, 2014 from St. John The Baptist HS (NY) (TEX)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 168 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 97

The start of Palumbo’s 2017 season sounded the alarm of re-evaluation as he struck out 22 hitters and walked four in his first 13.2 innings. Then he blew out his elbow and was on the shelf until the summer of 2018 to rehab from Tommy John.

When he returned, his stuff was back. His fastball sat 92-95 for most of his outings, dipping into the low end of that range later during his starts. It has some wiggle, as does a solid changeup that could be above-average with increased reps. But Palumbo’s curveball is his best pitch. It’s a timeless, rainbow curveball that arcs in at about 80 mph. It freezes hitters and garners swings and misses in the dirt to Palumbo’s glove side. He has No. 3 or 4 starter stuff, we just haven’t seen him hold it for a full season yet, and Palumbo is a 24-year-old with a surgery on his resume. There’s a chance he’s up at some point this year, but an innings limit might push his debut to 2020.

7. Cole Ragans, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from North Florida Christian HS (FL) (TEX)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 40/50 60/65 40/50 91-94 / 96

After an uncharacteristically wild 2017, Ragans tore his UCL during the spring of 2018 and, though he’s thrown off a mound as this list goes to press, he likely won’t be back in game action until the middle of 2019.

Assuming his stuff returns, Ragans projects as a changeup/command lefty in the mold of young Cole Hamels. His low-90s fastball has bat-missing angle in the zone and he perfectly mimics his fastball’s arm speed when he throws the changeup, which was already consistently plus before he got hurt. Ragans’ curveball is not good, but there are several instances of pitchers having success with a playable fastball, elite changeup, and command of both, with Chris Paddack ascending for those reasons as we speak. Ragans projected as a No. 4 starter prior to the injury and is now just a little bit behind the developmental curve because of it.

8. Owen White, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Carson HS (NC) (TEX)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/50 40/55 92-95 / 96

Texas’ new approach to pitching development shelves their recent draftees for the summer, which is why White still hasn’t played an affiliated game yet. He did throw during instructional league in the fall and looked fantastic, sitting 93-95 with his fastball, locating a consistently above-average curveball, and displaying nascent feel for a mid-80s changeup. He has a big, projectable frame, is an above-average on-mound athlete, and his arm action is loose and mechanically efficient. There are several significant components already in place (velocity, fastball movement, breaking ball quality) and White’s other traits (changeup proclivity, athleticism, and feel for location) indicate he’s poised to grow and develop into a well-rounded arm. He’s a mid-rotation pitching prospect who is likely several years from the majors.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Oklahoma Baptist (WAS)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 50/55 40/45 93-96 / 98

Hearn has been part of two very strong prospect return packages for relievers. First, he and Felipe Vasquez were sent from Washington to Pittsburgh for Mark Melancon. Then he and Sherten Apostel were traded to Texas for Keone Kela last year.

After dealing with severe injury issues as an amateur — he suffered from a strained UCL in high school and had a screw put in his elbow as a college freshman after suffering two humeral fractures — as well as more minor maladies as a pro, Hearn was healthy for all of 2018 and threw more innings in a single season than at any point in his career. He struck out 140 hitters in 129 innings at Double-A. He remains a fairly spotty strike-thrower, but his three-pitch mix should enable him to continue to start, though probably as a 120 or 130-inning type rather than a true workhorse, which also makes sense considering Hearn’s health history. He has rare lefty starter velocity and generally sits 93-96. A 95 mph average fastball would rank third among southpaw starters in baseball, just behind James Paxton and Blake Snell. Hearn can dump in his average curveball for strikes and his changeup has slowly turned into an average pitch, too. The cambio may yet have some developing to do as Hearn worked more heavily off his breaking ball early in his career and has lost a lot of reps due to injury. He profiles as a fastball-centric No. 4 or 5 starter for us, though there’s a large subset of teams who think he ends up in the bullpen.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (TEX)
Age 23.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 35/40 60/60 45/50 50/50

The timing of Martinez’s exit from Cuba led to a fairly limited market for his services since most teams had already spent their international bonus space on other players. He became the fallback option for clubs who were in pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, one of which was Texas, and he signed for $2.8 million in early-March of 2018. The timing of the deal, Martinez’s age relative to other first-year prospects, and the lack of game action he had seen since defecting made his early-2018 developmental path tough to anticipate. The Rangers ended up starting him in the DSL (government processes and paperwork probably had something to do with that) and then skipped him over the AZL and sent him to the Northwest League for the final two months of the summer.

His Fall League stint, though, was more telling. At that point, he had played enough to be sharp again, but not so much as to be gassed, and the opposing pitching in Arizona was an age-appropriate challenge while the NWL was arguably not. And Martinez’s showing in the AFL was fine. He has all sorts of tricks for trying to reach base; he’ll bunt for hits, he’ll show bunt and then try to poke liners over the heads of approaching infielders, he’ll occasionally walk toward the front of the batter’s box during the pitcher’s delivery and try to slash awkward contact somewhere while giving himself a head start down the line. Martinez’s bat head drags into the zone a little bit and while he can adjust his lower half to alter the vertical placement of his barrel, he can also get tied up by velo inside. He projects as a middling offensive player with plus speed, and a capable defender in center. He may be a second division regular but is probably a platoon or fourth outfielder on a contending team. He’ll get his first taste of full-season ball in 2019.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Kellis HS (AZ) (TEX)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 45/50 30/50 55/50 45/50 55/55

Ornelas’ age on draft day likely buoyed his stock among teams that rely heavily on models to build their draft board, as models tend to move younger players up the pref list. Not only was Johnny O younger than most of his high school prospect peers, but potential shortstops with plus bat speed aren’t often available past the draft’s first few picks. Though his swing — both the bat path and his footwork — may need tweaks in pro ball, Ornelas is capable of clearing his hips and unloading on pitches on the inner half. He struggles to make impact contact on pitches in other parts of the strike zone, but his hands have promising explosion and could yield all-fields doubles power with refinement. On defense, Ornelas has plus infield actions, he’s a 55 runner with sufficient middle infield range, and he has a chance to be a 50 glove at shortstop. His bat would play everyday at second and short if the Rangers get the swing dialed in. If they don’t, he profiles as a good utility infielder.

12. Chris Seise, SS
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from West Orange HS (FL) (TEX)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/60 30/55 50/45 40/50 55/60

The Rangers backfields are full of big, projectable frames. Seise is a 6-foot-2 scale model of Carlos Correa’s build, with square shoulders wide enough to use as a field goal crossbar. He missed all of 2018 due to rotator cuff surgery but was taking healthy hacks during 2019 spring training. Seise has power and he’ll occasionally show it to the opposite field in games, though his feel to hit is generally a little raw.

He’s a plus runner underway, but it takes him a few strides to really get going, and that lack of first-step quickness is also why some teams think he’ll move off short, though players like this are more frequently staying there. Assuming it’s fine returning from the surgery, Seise has the arm for anywhere on the infield. Staying at short takes some pressure off of what might be a suspect contact profile, as the power gives Seise a great chance of playing there everyday even if he whiffs a lot. Of course, if all of his issues are remedied then the ceiling is enormous, but until there’s evidence of that, Seise is a risky tools/frame bet coming off a serious injury.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Curacao (PIT)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 213 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 40/60 35/60 40/30 40/45 70/70

Apostel was pilfered from Pittsburgh as the PTBNL in the 2018 Keone Kela trade. Though he is a big-framed guy who has already begun to see time at first base, he’s athletic for his size and should remain at third — for a while, at least. The likelihood of this is bolstered by the polished nature of Apostel’s bat. His feel for the strike zone and his timing are both impressive for his age, and he is adept at attacking early-count pitches he can drive, while taking tough strikes. It helps him run deep counts and walk as well as hit for power. These traits are conducive to quick development, which means Apostel has a better chance of reaching the majors while he’s still limber enough to play third for much of his first six big league seasons.

He could end up with a 50 bat, 60 power, high OBPs, and fine third base defense, which would make him a solid-average regular.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/55 55/60 45/60 91-95 / 96

Rodriguez has a swing-and-miss heater that plays in the strike zone because of its spin and weird plane, plane caused by Rodriguez’s lowish arm slot. His breaking ball is blunt, but it has good pure spin, he commands it, and it plays up against righties because of his slot. The changeup is Rodriguez’s best secondary, and projects to plus, as does Rodriguez’s command, which is already advanced. The fastball/changeup/command concoction was poisonous to rookie-level hitters in 2018; Rodriguez struck out 82 and walked just eight in 63 innings of AZL and Northwest League ball.

The lack of a visibly excellent breaking ball causes some apprehension, but if everything else is a 60 or better at maturity, Rodriguez could be a good mid-rotation starter.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Bahamas (TEX)
Age 17.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/50 20/45 60/60 40/50 50/50

Moss was 16 years old for all but the final few weeks of the 2018 DSL season and he likely stayed down there due to some combination of immature physicality and the presence of Jayce Easley and Frainyer Chavez on the AZL roster. Moss is the most impressive athlete of the three, a compact little bundle of lightning with surprising power from both sides of the plate, and a good chance of playing defense up the middle somewhere, largely due to his speed.

Though both of Moss’ swings are fairly inconsistent (which should be expected for a switch-hitter this age), he’ll show you feel for both lift and contact at times, and he gets the most out of his little body without losing control of it. While there’s a large developmental gap between where Moss is as a defender right now and where he’ll need to be in order to stay on the infield, he’s a very athletic, very young player with tons of time to improve those things, and his physical gifts are so prominent that we anticipate he will. Up the middle switch-hitters with some pop, even if it’s just doubles power, are very valuable big leaguers, and not many prospects have a chance to become that kind of player. So while we acknowledge that Moss is very risky (he struck out 30% of the time in the DSL and any number of issues might befall him during his half-decade long trudge to the big leagues) there just aren’t many players in this system with that kind of ceiling.

16. Brock Burke, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2014 from Evergreen HS (CO) (TBR)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 45/50 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 96

Burke got on a weighted ball program before the 2017 season and, perhaps more as a result of the physical conditioning aspect of the program, began improving. His ascent continued, and accelerated, during a 2018 that ended with a dynamite month and a half at Double-A Montgomery, during which he struck out 71 hitters in 55 innings.

Burke’s fastball plays up because he gets way down the mound and generates a lot of backspin on the ball, creating perceived rise. Changeup development seemed to occur in 2018, as the pitch was much different last year (82-85 mph, at times with cut) than it was in 2017 (78-80 mph), and it’s fair to speculate that something like a grip change took place here. Burke has two breaking balls that are both about average, though he uses the curveball pretty sparingly. Glove-side command of his cutter/slider makes him tough on righties. One source considers Burke’s delivery fairly easy to time because of its pacing, so maybe we need to see more curveballs as a way of disrupting timing. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

Drafted: 16th Round, 2015 from Bishop Eustace HS (NJ) (TEX)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 55/60 45/55 90-93 / 96

Phillips walked a minuscule 2.7% of opposing Low-A hitters in 2018, and did so as a 20-year-old just a few years removed from New Jersey high school ball. His fastball approaches the plate at an awkward angle, enabling it to play in the strike zone despite fringe velocity. He throws a lot of right-on-right changeups — it’s his best put away offering, and also helps induce grounders due to its sink. While Phillips’ slurvy breaking ball is generic, he typically locates it off the plate where it can’t get hammered. On stuff, Phillips looks like a backend starter, but the ultra-efficient strike throwing could mean he has sneaky ceiling, even if the value comes from innings volume.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (COL)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 30/55 50/45 40/45 55/55

Signed as a shortstop by Colorado, Gonzalez kept growing and growing and eventually became a lean, long-striding 6-foot-5, and was moved to the outfield. He’s grown into much more power than he had as an amateur and there’s still room on his frame for another 20 pounds or so, and with it might come monstrous power. That growth potential also creates risk that Gonzalez will eventually move to an outfield corner, which would make it imperative that his current strikeout issues, which stem from lever length, be remedied.

Even as a below-average runner from home to first, Gonzalez’s long, bounding strides enable him to cover lots of ground in the outfield, and there’s a chance his instincts still improve out there since he hasn’t played those positions for all that long. After it appeared things were starting to click for PGon during 2017 instructs, his 2018 season was discouraging. He’s only 21, so we’re hopeful that the bat improves enough for him to be quite good, though those chances seem smaller than they did last year.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 50/50 40/45 40/40 93-97 / 99

Hernandez has not, as of yet, corralled the velocity he suddenly found a few years ago. When he first arrived in the U.S., he was an interesting pitchability sleeper, but he later found a lot more heat and will now touch 99. His delivery is violent and tough to repeat and his changeup is still a bit behind the rest of the repertoire, so there’s sizable risk Hernandez ends up in the bullpen, but sizable ceiling if he can refurbish his early-career command. The changeup doesn’t even really need to improve so long as Hernandez is locating his breaking balls to lefties. 2019 is his second option year.

20. Ronny Henriquez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age 18.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/55 45/55 40/50 90-95 / 97

There are always a few little toy cannon hurlers with light speed arm actions floating around, and Henriquez, who spent 2018 in the DSL, is the latest. Despite measuring in at maybe, maybe 5-foot-10 (maybe), his arm generates mid-90s velocity that he has relatively advanced command of. He’s not a touch and feel strike-thrower, but he comes right after hitters at the letters, and instructional league opponents couldn’t help themselves but swing at his fastball up there. He also has great feel for spin, his split/change has natural tumble, and he’s so athletic and well-balanced throughout his delivery that you can kind of go nuts projecting on everything. You could argue that Henriquez is a right-handed Tim Collins, and that we’re too aggressive with his placement in this system, but he has a special arm and body control, and a better chance to start than lots of the more established pitching prospects in this org.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (SDP)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 206 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
65/65 50/55 55/55 40/40 96-99 / 100

Acquired from San Diego for catcher Brett Nicholas, Clase was throwing very hard late in the year, sitting 96-99 during fall instructional league. His fastball has nasty natural cut action, especially when he’s working to his glove side, and at times his upper-80s slider has bat-missing vertical action. It often does not, and he throws a lot of 40-grade sliders. Kenley Jansen dominated for years with a naturally cutting fastball. It’s overzealous to assume that future for Clase, but cutters this hard don’t exist often. If he develops a more consistent slider, he could be a set-up type of reliever, a least. He’s Rule 5 eligible after this year.

22. C.D. Pelham, LHP
Drafted: 33th Round, 2015 from Spartanburg Methodist JC (SC) (TEX)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Cutter Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 40/40 94-98 / 99

There’s still hope that Pelham develops an extra grade of command in his mid-20s because he only began pitching as a senior in high school and was pragmatically moved to the bullpen in just his second full pro season, limiting his reps.

If he does develop an improved ability to locate, he could be one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball because he has such a dominant fastball. Not only does Pelham throw really hard, at times sitting 97-99, but his size, arm slot, and cross-bodied delivery create unique angle on his fastball, and hitters struggle to square it up. In a small big league sample last year, 77% of Pelham’s pitches were fastballs, which would rank 13th among qualified relievers. His upper-80s cutter/slider doesn’t have significant length to it, and it also needs improved location if it’s going to miss bats. Once in a while, elite relievers with a single, tyrannical pitch emerge. It’s possible Pelham is one of those, but it’s more likely his issues limit him to single, middle-inning bullpen work.

23. A.J. Alexy, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Twin Valley HS (PA) (LAD)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 40/45 93-97 / 99

One of the prospects acquired from Los Angeles in the 2017 Yu Darvish deal, Alexy has had two consecutive years of velo increase and now has a three-pitch mix, led by a mid-90s fastball and a good curveball. He has a grip-and-rip style of pitching that somewhat detracts from his command and creates a good amount of relief risk, but Alexy is working in the mid-90s as a starter and could have a monster fastball if he’s ever moved to the bullpen. He likely profiles as a three-pitch reliever, but he’s barely 21 and sometimes Northeast prep arms develop later, and there’s still changeup/command refinement to come here.

24. Eli White, UTIL
Drafted: 11th Round, 2016 from Clemson (TEX)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 45/45 30/35 60/60 50/50 50/50

White hit .270 with a .340 OBP during each of his first two seasons, but hit for no power. Then he had a breakout 2018 (albeit at age 24), and hit .306/.388/.450 at Double-A Midland. He then went to the Arizona Fall League and hit well there while the industry properly evaluated his power. It’s below average, but White’s blend of bat control, hand-eye, feel to hit, and speed all make for a very favorable contact profile.

White had really only played shortstop until last year, when he began seeing time at second and third base. He fits best at second, but is fine at all three spots, and his plus speed might enable him to one day run down balls in the outfield as well. He’s a near-ready, multi-positional utility man who should provide the kind of defensive flexibility teams are starting to prioritize.

25. Brett Martin, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Walters State JC (TN) (TEX)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 45/50 45/45 45/50 90-93 / 95

Martin’s 2018 was his first injury-free full season as a pro, but he was used out of the bullpen in health-friendly two and three-inning stints separated by several days of rest. He was also crushed underneath a landslide .443 BABIP and had a 7.28 ERA at Double-A.

He has back-end starter stuff but was part of the Rangers lefty bullpen competition during the spring. During that time, Martin worked in the 91-94 range; he can spot cutting and breaking stuff to his glove side, and his changeup is suitable for light usage versus righties. We still like him as a No. 4 or 5 starter type, though we could see justifying a bullpen move if the Rangers thought it was why Martin stayed healthy all last year. He seems likely to be a competent part of a pitching staff in some form, and had a good showing with the 2019 big club during spring training before being sent back to Double-A in late-March.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Lakewood HS (CA) (LAD)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 45/55 30/50 50/40 45/50 55/60

Davis had a mediocre statistical 2018, his first full year with Texas after being part of the prospect package Los Angeles sent in the Yu Darvish trade. But Davis and the Rangers seemed to be tinkering with his swing since his acquisition and by 2018 instructional league, his stance had closed significantly and Davis had changed the way his hands set up. The drop in his ground ball rate since coming over from LA — 38% with Texas, after close to 50% with the Dodgers — seems to corroborate the visual evidence of tweaks, so there’s a chance Davis’ 2018 was just the product of developmental growing pains.

Even at 21, Davis remains physically projectable and is likely to add more and more mass and strength to his giant frame as he enters his mid-20s. The lift and rotation in his swing appear suited for power production that might arrive in games when new muscle arrives on the body. Davis doesn’t track pitches well and he often appears imbalanced at the plate. We have him projected as a strikeout-prone third baseman who sells out for big power. He’ll need to improve a bit on defense to stay on the infield, but it’s unreasonable to expect most athletes this size to have total control of their bodies at this age anyway, so there’s cause for optimism on that end.

We’re still on Davis despite a bad 2018, and think he has some dormant thump that will make him relevant eventually.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age 19.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 40/45 20/40 40/30 40/50 50/55

Signed for $800,000, Garcia was a good catch-and-throw prospect with some feel to hit from both sides of the plate, but he was so physically immature early in his career that he struggled to catch pro-quality stuff. As such, he was handled pretty conservatively throughout his first two pro seasons despite his many polished attributes. He has thickened up a bit and made solid line drive contact from both sides of the plate last year, while appearing more able to deal with the physical grind of catching. He appears to be a promising backup catching prospect for now, though as he grows into his early 20s he may end up with some power, or such a strong hit tool that he profiles as an everyday player without it.

Drafted: 25th Round, 2015 from Petal HS (MS) (TEX)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 275 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 35/40 92-96 / 98

Evans has 40+ FV tier stuff and 35 FV tier control. He pumps easy mid-90s gas, his fastball has tough-to-hit, downward angle, and his breaking ball has vertical action, depth, and is consistently plus. When dialed in, Evans looks like an unhittable, high-leverage relief prospect, and he struck out a ludicrous 46% of his 2018 foes — nearly two batters per inning — last year. He’s a short strider who sometimes fails to clear his front side, causing his pitches to sail. His 2018 was much better from a strike-throwing perspective than 2017, but he still walked 12% of hitters faced, and he’s very fly ball prone due to where his fastball lives in the hitting zone. There’s some headwind, but also, utterly dominant stuff. Evans is a good bet to be a 40-man add after the 2019 season, so there’s about an 18-month window for player dev to impact him before he debuts.

29. Jeffrey Springs, LHP
Drafted: 30th Round, 2015 from Appalachian State (TEX)
Age 26.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 55/60 45/50 90-92 / 94

Springs is a changeup-heavy lefty reliever with a very average fastball/slider combo that plays against lefties due to his lower arm slot. Springs’ changeup’s spin rate is way down in the 1400 rpm range, creating bat-missing sink that enabled his change to have a 45% whiff rate last year. He was developed as a starter for a long time and only moved to the bullpen last season, when he broke out. He may be a candidate to be stretched out as a starter or multi-inning reliever during Texas’ rebuild.

30. Alex Speas, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from McEachern HS (GA) (TEX)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/70 55/60 40/45 30/40 94-97 / 99

In high school, Speas was getting body and arm speed comp’d to Dwight Gooden. He would routinely work 93-97 and break off several plus breaking balls, so while most of the amateur side of the industry acknowledged that Speas’ wildness meant there was a strong chance he’d be a pro reliever, his perceived ceiling, were things suddenly to click, was enormous. The Rangers quickly moved Speas to the bullpen and he dealt with fastball inaccuracy for two years before succumbing to a torn UCL. He may be back for 2019 instructional league and is a long-term, high-leverage bullpen prospect.

31. Kyle Cody, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Kentucky (TEX)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 55/60 40/45 93-96 / 98

Cody had a rocky career at Kentucky, always tantalizing scouts with stuff but struggling with health and control. The Twins made Cody their 2015 second rounder, but he didn’t sign and fell to the sixth round as a 2016 senior. Texas simplified his delivery in 2017, which probably contributed to a breakout year. He seemed likely to spend most of 2018 at Double-A and perhaps reach the majors in 2019, but he had elbow issues during the spring and didn’t break camp with an affiliate. His Arizona rehab was successful enough for Cody to get on a mound in games for a bit, but he felt continued discomfort and needed Tommy John. The mid-summer timing of the surgery means he’ll likely miss all of 2019, which means he’ll be back when he’s a few months shy of 26. The time crunch alone makes it likely that he ends up in relief, though Cody could move quickly and be a strong, late-inning piece when he returns.

35+ FV Prospects

32. Diosbel Arias, UTIL
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Cuba (TEX)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Arias signed as an under-the-radar, 21-year-old Cuban defector in July of 2017. The 2018 season was Arias’ first full year of baseball since the 2014-15 Cuban Series Nacional because his defection, international signing rules, and the 2017 offseason led to an eon between actual games for him. He was a college-aged player in the Northwest League in 2018 and had a mandatorily strong statistical season, hitting .366/.451/.548 with Spokane. He continued a strong bat-to-ball showing during instructional league, looked good at several different defensive positions, and was then firmly on the pro scouting radar. He got some reps with the big league team during ’19 spring training.

For now, he looks like a possible infield utility piece with some contact skills, but it might behoove Texas to hit the gas on his development and promotion to see if there could be more here.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Duke (TEX)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Injuries have plagued Matuella since college. His back, his elbow, a Tommy John, more back, the shoulder, more elbow. The Rangers pared down his repertoire and transitioned him into a multi-inning relief role fairly early in 2018. He was shut down with injury in July. In the fall, his velocity was back in the mid-90s but his secondary stuff wasn’t as crisp. Betwixt injured list stints early in his career, Matuella would flash No. 3 starter stuff. There’s a chance that comes back, but the injury history is suppressing how he’s viewed compared to other prospects and will likely impact the way Texas develops him, as evidenced by the 2018 bullpen move.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from O’Connor HS (AZ) (TEX)
Age 19.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

The middle infield exodus at Oregon State (Nick Madrigal and Cadyn Grenier were both going to be drafted high) made it seem logical that were Easley to matriculate to Corvallis, he’d start as a freshman. Because he lacks prototypical size, he’s exactly the type of prospect who teams would prefer goes to school and performs, to increase their collective confidence that he’s actually good. That Easley seemed likely to have the opportunity to do just that, and perhaps raise his draft profile considerably while in college, made it seem more likely that he would go. But, perhaps because he was seen so much by high-profile, draft-influencing executives due to high school teammate Nolan Gorman, teams felt strongly enough to pursue him now, and Easley signed as a fifth rounder. He’s a plus runner with a plus arm, he’s going to stay on the middle infield, he has fair feel to hit from both sides of the plate, and a little room for muscle on his frame. We have him just ahead of Chavez because Jayce has a little more room for physical growth, but they’re very similar.

Drafted: 22th Round, 2018 from Midland JC (TX) (TEX)
Age 19.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Chavez’s family fled Venezuela when he was an adolescent and ended up in Texas, where Chavez went to high school and junior college. He was a late-round pick in 2018 and immediately became of interest to pro scouts covering Texas’ AZL club thanks to his advanced switch-hitting prowess and fundamentally sound infield actions. A shortstop as an amateur, Chavez saw time all over the infield last summer and looked comfortable at each spot. His frame limits his power projection and makes it less likely that he does sufficient offensive damage to profile as a regular, but he looks like a potentially valuable, switch-hitting bench piece, which would be a great outcome for a 22nd round junior college draftee.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

At his peak, Mendez had mid-rotation stuff. He was sitting 94-97 at times during the spring of 2015, his changeup was plus, and his slurvy breaking ball was at least average. Since then his health and stuff have waxed and waned. In 2018, his stuff looked more like that of a fifth starter. Then he suffered a UCL strain during 2019 spring training. He’s now an oft-injured 24-year-old backend starter prospect who may benefit from a change of scenery.

37. Yohel Pozo, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

There’s a whiff of Willians Astudillo to Pozo, who is also a big-bodied catcher who rarely walks or strikes out. While his peripherals aren’t quite as extreme as Astudillo’s (6% career walk rate, 8% strikeouts), Pozo has a better chance at actually catching. There’s also some off-field stink surrounding him, as Pozo was involved in the Rangers grotesque 2016 sexual assault/hazing scandal, which you should not search for if you’re reading this list at work or school. Dominican authorities and MLB investigated the incident, and Pozo was one of several players who were suspended for it. He may understandably be considered unacquirable by some teams for this reason, but this is where he falls in the system based solely on talent.

38. Jose Rodriguez, C
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (TEX)
Age 17.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Rodriguez signed for $2 million during the 2018 IFA signing period. He’s a loose, rotational, left-hitting catcher with the agility and hands to catch, though he needs some technical refinement to shave a few tenth off his pop time. The attrition rate for teenage catching is very high, but Rodriguez is a strong, long term developmental project.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Catching Depth
Jose Trevino, C
Matt Whatley, C
Josh Morgan, C/INF

Trevino and Whatley have big league gloves and leadership qualities but their bats might relegate them to third catcher duty. Whatley also has a hose. Morgan is a multi-positional player with some feel for contact and might be a bench contributor.

First Base Mashers
Sam Huff, 1B/C
Tyreque Reed, 1B
Curtis Terry, 1B
Andretty Cordero, 1B
Stanley Martinez, 1B

Huff has 70 raw power and blasts balls out to all fields. We doubt he catches, but the Rangers should keep trying. The rest of these guys are R/R profiles and need to mash. Reed and Terry are both about 260 pounds and have big power, but strike out. Reed leapt over Terry last year and had a good year at Low-A. Cordero and Martinez are more balanced, average hit/power types who have a better chance than the other two at playing some other positions. Cordero has seen time in the outfield corners, Martinez at third base. They could be bench contributors.

Bench Outfield Types
Zack Granite, CF
Miguel Aparicio, OF

Granite was DFA’d by the Twins and acquired via trade. He’s an 80 runner with contact skills, his instincts in center field are not great, and he has to compensate for lack of strength in the batter’s box by using a very conservative swing. Aparicio has feel to hit and is fine in center field. His size and lack of power projection make a fourth outfielder ceiling a reasonable outcome, but probably not for a few years yet.

Younger Bats
Osleivis Basabe, SS
Yenci Pena, 3B
Keyber Rodriguez, SS
Randy Florentino, C/1B

Basabe was a 70 runner in the fall and he might grow into some pop, but he is concerningly raw with the bat. Pena might turn into a utility infielder with some pop if he can become a 45 middle infield defender. He fits best at third. Rodriguez is a switch-hitting middle infielder with fringe bat speed. Florentino is a pretty projectable catcher and first baseman who has a nice swing and who walked a lot in the DSL last year.

Close Relief Types
Kyle Bird, LHP
Reid Anderson, RHP
Yoel Espinal. RHP
Jairo Beras, RHP

Bird sits 90-92, has two good breaking balls, and 40 control. He could be a middle relief piece. Anderson was a shrewd pick out of Millersville University in PA. He was 95-97 during instructs and has an average breaking ball. Espinal sits 94-95 and has a power sinking changeup in the upper-80s. Beras is a conversion arm with plus-plus velo and little else, but it’s still fairly early in his on-mound dev.

Deep Sleeper Arms
Mason Englert, RHP
Destin Dotson, LHP
Leury Tejada, RHP
John King, LHP
Hever Bueno, RHP
Tyree Thompson, RHP

Englert is a kind of funky 3/4s righty whose low-90s fastball has some tail. He has a fringe four-pitch mix. Dotson is a big, projectable lefty with an arm slot conducive to vertical movement. Tejeda was a 10th rounder from the Bronx. He has big arm speed but is very wild. Those three are all teenagers. King is 24, his delivery is weird, he throws 93-95 with tough angle, and has a good curveball. Hever Bueno has an 80-grade pitcher’s name. While he was at ASU, he was 93-96 with a plus slider at times and hurt at others. He’s had a TJ and is perhaps a bounce-back sleeper. Thompson is purely a physical projection bet with fringe everything at present.

System Overview

How long might this Ranger rebuild take? There’s a fairly young contingent of quality role players who will either arrive shortly or be around for a while. Rougie Odor is under contract through 2022 or 2023 depending on whether the team picks up his option, Nomar Mazara’s arbitration years run through 2021, and Joey Gallo, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and Ronald Guzman won’t reach free agency for four or five years. Most of the 22 through 24-year-olds on this list are likely role players who will be up during that window.

But is there a tent pole star or two among them? Perhaps Gallo’s peak years will be of the four-plus WAR variety, but even the oldest among the potential homegrown stars — Taveras, Thompson, Tejeda, Seise — are probably a few years away, and not all of them are going to turn into that kind of player. The big league overlap of the short-term contributors and potential long-term stars may be fleeting.

Should Texas be proactive about choosing a competitive timeline and if so, how proactive? They could use the younger layers of talent to trade for big names who fit into the current 24ish-years-old core, especially if the front office feels pressure to win sooner than later. That means holding on to most of the players on the big league roster who have real trade value, and also that any influx of minor league talent (aside from what veteran reclamation projects like Drew Smyly can fetch in trade if they play well) may need to come from the amateur scouting arm of the org.

It also puts pressure on the new player dev group — Matt Blood, once the head of the 18U Team USA program, is the new Director of Player Development — to make what it can of the deep but somewhat homogeneous group above.


Top 39 Prospects: Houston Astros

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Houston Astros. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Astros Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Forrest Whitley 21.5 AA RHP 2019 65
2 Kyle Tucker 22.2 MLB RF 2019 60
3 Corbin Martin 23.2 AA RHP 2019 50
4 J.B. Bukauskas 22.4 AA RHP 2019 50
5 Joshua James 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 50
6 Cionel Perez 22.9 MLB LHP 2019 50
7 Yordan Alvarez 21.7 AAA DH 2020 50
8 Freudis Nova 19.2 R SS 2022 45
9 Bryan Abreu 21.9 A RHP 2020 45
10 Brandon Bielak 22.9 AA RHP 2020 45
11 Luis Santana 19.6 R 2B 2022 40+
12 Rogelio Armenteros 24.7 AAA RHP 2019 40+
13 Jairo Solis 19.2 A RHP 2022 40+
14 Tyler Ivey 22.8 A+ RHP 2020 40+
15 Ronnie Dawson 23.8 AA CF 2020 40+
16 Manny Ramirez 19.3 A- RHP 2023 40
17 Myles Straw 24.4 MLB CF 2019 40
18 Seth Beer 22.5 A+ DH 2021 40
19 Abraham Toro-Hernandez 22.2 AA 3B 2021 40
20 Peter Solomon 22.6 A+ RHP 2020 40
21 Brandon Bailey 24.4 AA RHP 2019 40
22 Framber Valdez 25.3 MLB LHP 2019 40
23 Alex McKenna 21.5 A CF 2022 40
24 Jonathan Arauz 20.6 A+ 2B 2021 40
25 Garrett Stubbs 25.8 AAA C 2019 40
26 Cristian Javier 22.0 A+ RHP 2020 40
27 Jayson Schroeder 19.3 R RHP 2023 40
28 Enoli Paredes 23.5 A+ RHP 2020 40
29 Joe Perez 19.6 R 3B 2022 35+
30 J.J. Matijevic 23.3 A+ 1B 2021 35+
31 Carlos Sanabria 22.1 A+ RHP 2020 35+
32 Ross Adolph 22.2 A- CF 2022 35+
33 Deury Carrasco 19.5 A- SS 2023 35+
34 Jeremy Pena 21.5 A- SS 2022 35+
35 Osvaldo Duarte 23.2 A+ SS 2020 35+
36 Reymin Guduan 27.0 MLB LHP 2019 35+
37 Dean Deetz 25.3 MLB RHP 2019 35+
38 Angel Macuare 19.0 R RHP 2022 35+
39 Kit Scheetz 24.8 AA LHP 2019 35+
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65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Alamo Heights HS (TX) (HOU)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/65 60/60 60/70 50/55 40/50 93-99 / 100

Whitley was listed at 235 pounds on the 2015 Area Code Games roster but was tipping the scales at 260 not long before that. At that event, he was sitting in the 90-92 range with feel for locating a solid-average curveball. He looked like a mature-bodied pitchability prospect whose stuff might be done improving. During that fall and winter, though, Whitley began to reshape his physique. He dropped about 50 pounds and came out the following spring with much better stuff, his fastball creeping into the 93-95 range and touching 97.

Whitley and his stuff have continued to improve, though he had a somewhat chaotic 2018. He missed the season’s first 50 games due to a suspension for the use of an unknown stimulant, then had his season debut pushed back due to a lat strain. He finally toed the rubber at Double-A Corpus Christi in June and made five four-inning starts before he was removed in the first inning of his sixth outing and placed on the IL with an oblique strain. He missed a little over a month, then made two more starts in August before feeling lat discomfort warming up for what would have been a third. He was shut down as a precaution and sent to the Arizona Fall League to pick up innings.

His stuff was wholly intact in Arizona, as Whitley sat 93-97 and touched 99. His apparitional changeup haunts both left and right-handed hitters, disappearing beneath barrels as it approaches the plate. Whitley’s array of breaking stuff is well-designed. His power 12-6 curveball honors his Texas heritage but has been de-emphasized as an out pitch in deference to his tilting, mid-80s slider. He has the best collection of stuff in the minor leagues, and might have been in the big leagues last year if not for various setbacks. He may be on somewhat of an innings limit this year because he didn’t pitch all that much in 2018, but barring that, we expect he’ll help the Astros cause at some point in 2019.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Plant HS (FL) (HOU)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/60 60/60 50/60 40/40 40/50 55/55

A very divisive amateur prospect, some scouts were put off by Tucker’s unique swing, while it reminded others of Ted Williams’. The Astros have parlayed his natural bat control into more power. Tucker has gotten stronger and more physically mature, his lower half is better incorporated into his swing than it was in high school, and in 2017, he began lifting the ball more as his ground ball rate dropped from 42% to 34%. With that additional lift has come in-game power and Tucker has slugged well over .500 during each of the last two seasons, and hit about 25 homers during each campaign. He had a horrendous 28-game big league debut but his long track record of hitting suggests that should be heavily discounted.

Though Tucker spent much of his minor league career in center field, he’s a below average runner who is ticketed for an outfield corner, probably in right. He’s an opportunistic base stealer but almost all of his value is tied to his bat, and we think he eventually ends up as a middle of the order bat with a dynamic hit/power combination.

There are still detractors who don’t like Tucker’s motor, or his swing, but on the low end he projects somewhere in the Max Kepler/Nomar Mazara area, and that still plays everyday.

50 FV Prospects

3. Corbin Martin, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Texas A&M (HOU)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/55 40/50 93-95 / 96

Martin was a solid two-way performer in high school who hadn’t quite grown into his frame yet when he got to Texas A&M. By the summer after his sophomore year, Martin was flashing three TrackMan-friendly plus pitches and starter traits in the Cape Cod League, but he only started 16 games in College Station due to a deep veteran staff and his own inconsistency. The Astros popped him in the second round in 2017, hoping to tease out the guy they saw on the Cape and in the last 18 months, they’ve done just that.

Martin sits in the mid-90s, mixes in a plus slider, with an above average changeup and average command. He still doesn’t post the strikeout rates that you’d assume from a possible No. 2 or 3 starter in the Astros farm system, which annually leads the minors in strikeouts in part because they know how to coach pitchers to make the most of their stuff. Sources with knowledge in this area indicate that Martin should see more K’s in 2019 if he can make a couple subtle adjustments to how he uses his pitches and fully unlock his potential, which could lead to a big league look at the end of 2019 if the vaunted Astros pitching staff has an open spot.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from North Carolina (HOU)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 196 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/70 55/60 55/55 45/50 92-97 / 98

Bukauskas took time off from pitching and got in the weight room as a high school underclassman, and emerged the following spring with four or five more ticks on his fastball. He then reclassified and was suddenly on track to graduate and be draft eligible a year early, meaning every decision-making amateur evaluator in the country had to get in quickly to see a pitcher who had all this new velocity but with whom scouts had very little history. Then Bukauskas asked not to be drafted (he was, late, and didn’t sign) so he could go to North Carolina. After a middling freshman year, he was dominant as a sophomore and in the early part of his junior year before his stuff was depressed during North Carolina’s postseason games. It inflamed perviously held concerns that durability issues resulting from his size and a violent delivery might push Bukauskas to the bullpen.

After parts of two pro seasons, we still don’t have great feel for how Bukauskas will hold up under a pro workload. He hasn’t had any arm issues, but missed two months due to a slipped disk in his thoracic spine, an injury he suffered in a car accident. Bukauskas was electric when he returned and became increasingly dominant towards the end of the summer before his stuff was seen by the entire industry in the Arizona Fall League.

He’ll flash 70-grade changeups and sliders on occasion, bump 98, and has added a cutter. His stuff would lose some zip late in Fall League outings, and he may be more of a 120-inning starter than true workhorse, which would cap his value at around 2.5 annual WAR.

5. Joshua James, RHP
Drafted: 34th Round, 2014 from Western Oklahoma JC (HOU)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 55/55 40/45 94-99 / 102

James’ fastball velocity has climbed each of the last three years and is now in the upper-90s. He struck out 171 hitters in 114 innings at Triple-A Fresno in 2018 before the Astros brought him to the big leagues for six appearances (some out of the bullpen, some as a starter), and he struck out more than a batter per inning there, as well. He was slated to compete for a spot in Houston’s rotation during the spring but was sidelined with a quad strain, and may begin the regular season rehabbing or in a lesser role due to the late start.

James’ secondaries can sometimes be easy to identify out of his hand, but purely based on movement, they’re both plus. His command may limit him to a relief role, or at least a starting role that carries fewer innings than is typical, but he has high-leverage big league stuff, and was perhaps 2018’s biggest prospect surprise.

6. Cionel Perez, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (HOU)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 55/60 40/45 40/45 92-96 / 98

The Astros initially agreed to sign Perez for $5 million but found something they didn’t like during a physical, voided his deal, then renegotiated his bonus down to $2 million. Perez has traversed the minors injury-free and reached Houston last year in just his second pro season in the U.S. All of Perez’s pitches have great action on them, including the changeup, which Perez just doesn’t have feel for locating yet. For now, he relies heavily on mid-90s heat and two good breaking balls, the best of which is a hard, upper-80s slider.

He had weird usage patterns last year and it’s not clear if Houston is developing him as a true starter or not, though lots of scouts see his skinny build and project him to the bullpen. He has multi-inning stuff if that move occurs.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba (LAD)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 65/65 30/55 45/40 30/40 45/45

The Dodgers signed Alvarez for $2 million just before the clock struck midnight on the 2015-2016 International Free Agent signing period, then traded him to Houston for Josh Fields a few weeks later, before Alvarez had even played a pro game. Houston took things slow for the first year 10 months, and left Alvarez in the DSL in 2016 and in Extended Spring Training to start 2017, but he has moved very quickly since then, climbing to a new minor league level every half season. And he has performed. Alvarez is a career .301/.381/.507 hitter in the minors, has always been young relative to his level, and reached Triple-A last year shortly after he turned 21. He has big, all-fields raw power, and balls he mis-hits will often still find their way to the warning track. While Alvarez has good natural timing in the box and isn’t often fooled by breaking stuff, he does have limited bat control and we anticipate his batting averages will be lower in majors than they have been thus far.

Athletic for his size, Alvarez has mostly played left field as a pro and he’s a 40 runner underway, but he appeared to stiffen last year and most teams have him projected to first base or DH. That will limit his overall value and makes his lack of bat control a little scary, but we still think Alvarez will become an average regular, and possibly get an opportunity quite soon.

45 FV Prospects

8. Freudis Nova, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 50/60 35/55 60/50 40/45 55/55

The Marlins backed out of a $2.5 million agreement with Nova after he tested positive for PEDs as an amateur. He eventually came to a $1.5 million deal with Houston, which was reduced to $1.2 million after his physical. While there’s creeping doubt about his ability to stay at shortstop — some scouts have gone so far as to say he appears wholly disinterested in defense — there’s confidence in Nova doing well-rounded damage on offense. He’s an athletic swinger with plus bat speed and bat control, and is especially adept at impacting pitches in the bottom of the strike zone.

For now, Nova’s approach is rather hedonistic, and he’s talented enough to make that work, at least for a while. Though this feature adds some approach-related risk to his profile, there’s huge ceiling if Nova remedies his defensive shortcomings and becomes more selective, and it’s probably a strong everyday role if just one of those things happens.

9. Bryan Abreu, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 60/60 40/45 40/45 93-96 / 97

The origin of Abreu’s superficially surprising 40-man add was the glacial pace at which the Astros moved him through the system during his first several seasons. He spent four years at various levels of rookie ball and barely pitched, only throwing about 40 affiliated innings per year on average. The 38 innings he threw at Low-A to round out 2018 were dominant, as Abreu recorded 68 strikeouts, most of which were accrued with either of his two excellent breaking balls, which he has better feel for locating than he does his mid-90s fastball.

There’s considerable industry doubt regarding Abreu’s ability to start, the result of several factors. The lack of total innings creates reasonable doubt about him handling a 140-plus inning workload, and the lack of fastball command, along with Abreu’s mediocre changeup, are also cited as pitfalls. As long as Abreu’s breaking ball command refines though, he may have the tools to attack lefties and get ahead of hitters even if these other components are sub-optimal. His 40-man addition makes it more likely that he spends the early part of his big league career in the bullpen, but he may be a dominant multi-inning piece and could evetually transition into the rotation. Despite some clear present issues, we’re betting heavily on the stuff here.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2017 from Notre Dame (HOU)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 55/60 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 96

Bielak was one of several talented Notre Dame pitchers who had an uneven college career during ’15-’17. Bielak’s control issues were quickly remedied in pro ball, and his pitch utility improved. He can pitch backwards and consistently locates both of his breaking balls to his glove side; Bielak often sets up one with the other. He checks an awful lot of boxes; there’s a starter’s repertoire depth and pitch quality, starter’s command, good raw spin, and he performed and reached Double-A in his first full year. We think he’s a No. 4 or 5 starter and could be ready in 2020.

40+ FV Prospects

11. Luis Santana, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (NYM)
Age 19.6 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 40/45 20/40 50/50 40/50 50/50

The Astros acquired Santana from the Mets for J.D. Davis when Santana was coming off a domestic debut at advanced rookie-level Kingsport, where he hit .348/.446/.471 with more walks than strikeouts.

A curvaceous 5-foot-8, Santana crowds the plate so much that he’s practically straddling it, and his idiosyncratic, low-ball swing enables him to impact pitches that cross the plate beneath his chest as he leans over it. It’s weird, but it works, and Santana looks like he’s going to be a plus hitter who also has a discerning eye for the strike zone, and whose plate crowding gets him hit by pitches so often that it actually matters. He has been hit in 4% of his 611 career plate appearances, which is nearly twice the career rate of active big league HBP leader Shin-Soo Choo (132 HBP, 1.9%) who became the active leader when Chase Utley (204 HBP, 2.5%) retired.

Athletically, Santana fits at second and third base. His body is pretty maxed out and he’s not likely to grow into sizable raw power, but he runs well, has infield-worthy hands, and an average arm. The combination of his defensive profile and promising feel to hit make him a potential regular. The bat control may be obscuring poor pitch selection.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Cuba (HOU)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/50 60/60 50/55 87-90 / 92

Though it seems like Arementeros was more inclined to nibble with his fringy fastball in the hitter’s paradise of the PCL, he was still pretty successful and of interest to teams ahead of the trade deadline. His fastball plays because he hides the ball well, it has some life at the top of the zone, and he works it up around the hands of righties, causing significant discomfort. His command enables his milquetoast breaking ball to play, but his dastardly changeup, which Armenteros uses against hitters of both handedness, is clearly his best pitch. The deception may not play multiple times through a batting order if Armenteros ends up in a traditional starting role. Instead we think he fits best in a role like Chris Devenski, who has similar stuff.

13. Jairo Solis, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (HOU)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/65 45/55 35/45 92-95 / 97

If not for a very unfortunately timed Tommy John — which will keep him out until 2020 — Solis would have been several spots higher on this list. Among the non-Top 100 types of arms in this system, he not only has one of the better chances of remaining a starter but also has the best stuff among those who do, led by a plus-flashing curveball that he has great feel for locating. Solis also has a great arm for a 19-year-old and may still throw harder as he matures, with his fastball already sitting in the viable low-to-mid 90s. There’s some changeup feel here, too, and teams think Solis has mid-rotation ceiling so long as his command continues to progress.

The Astros will need to make a Rule 5 protection 40-man decision on him after the 2020 season, a decision that will be made easier if Solis hits the ground running after rehab.

14. Tyler Ivey, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Grayson County JC (TX) (HOU)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 60/60 45/50 40/45 45/50 90-94 / 96

The way Ivey’s jersey billows down from his long, skinny limbs throughout an eccentric, slowly-paced windup makes him look like a backup dancer in some kind of vampire musical. Despite the head whack that comes at the end, he’s able to throw strikes with his fastball and has a sufficiently deep repertoire for starting. He is the Astros’ type, possessing a fastball/curveball combination that plays well in sequence at the top and bottom of the strike zone. The rest of his stuff is just okay but enables Ivey to attack hitters in various ways, either by working his cutter in on the hands of lefties or by dipping his slider beneath the zone. He has a No. 4 or 5 starter’s mix or could end up a dynamic multi-inning reliever.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Ohio State (HOU)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 55/55 45/50 55/55 45/50 55/55

A multi-sport high schooler, Dawson drew some Division I football interest from MAC teams like Bowling Green but transitioned to baseball full time after suffering a torn ACL late in his high school career. In every regard he became a contextually toolsy outfielder at Ohio State, possessing a power/speed blend that’s rare for prospects in college baseball, let alone the Big Ten.

While Dawson ran well for a hefty, 230 pound former linebacker/fullback, it was assumed that his size would prohibit long term play in center field and that his arm strength would limit him to left. He has worked doggedly to improve both those issues. Weighted ball work has helped improve his arm, and he’s now considerably leaner than he was in college. He’s also faster, and shags batting practice fly balls with intense focus. He’s willed himself to become viable in center field, which gives him a real shot at becoming an everyday player because Dawson has more raw juice than is typical for center fielders. More likely he’s the larger half of an outfield platoon or a strong fourth outfielder, but he has already surpassed developmental expectations and may continue to do so.

40 FV Prospects

16. Manny Ramirez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 19.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/60 40/50 35/50 92-95 / 97

Ramirez wasn’t a hyped international prospect and it’s easy to see why. As a 5-foot-11, 170 pound righty, he would need to have electric stuff to be a real prospect, stuff he didn’t have when he signed for $50,000 in the 2017 class. This year, that stuff materialized with a mid-90s fastball and plus-flashing curveball, along with a changeup that shows average at times. The future scouting grades add up to a potential mid-rotation starter, but Ramirez is still just 19, with no full-season minor league experience, a frame that likely isn’t conducive to starter bulk innings, and a ways to go to even reach those projected future grades. With a realistic outcome of multi-inning power reliever, Ramirez joins a number of power arms the Astros have been developing at a greater than usual rate.

17. Myles Straw, CF
Drafted: 12th Round, 2015 from St. John’s River JC (FL) (HOU)
Age 24.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 30/30 20/20 70/70 60/60 55/55

One of the more unusual players in the minors, Straw has long been considered a likely bench outfielder due to his complete lack of power, but his other tools may prove to be so strong that he finds his way into an everyday role for someone.

Straw has one of the lowest Pull% in pro baseball, as only 27% of balls he puts in play are to his pull side. His 70-grade speed plays like an 80 from home to first, as his swing has a natural jailbreak that gets him out of the box very quickly. He lead the minors with 70 stolen bases last year, his closing speed is very valuable in center field, and Straw is a tough out thanks to his feel for the strike zone and bat control. Players like this occasionally turn into Michael Bourn or Ender Inciarte and provide sizable everyday value. Straw’s skillset indicates this sort of future is a possibility, but not a likelihood, and chances are he’s either a low-end regular in center or good fourth outfielder.

18. Seth Beer, DH
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Clemson (HOU)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 70/70 40/55 20/20 30/40 45/45

Beer was on the scouting radar very early as a prep underclassman who was old for his year but had tools, performed, and was a decorated swimmer. Instead of reclassifying and enter the 2015 draft as an 18-year-old, Beer skipped his high school senior year completely and early-enrolled in January at Clemson. He wasn’t on the radar for the top couple rounds, so scouts weren’t sure he’d perform well, but Beer went on to have one of the best freshman years in college baseball history: .369/.535/.700 with 18 homers, 62 walks, and 27 strikeouts.

The pessimistic view is that Beer is a player with old skills that peaked that season, as his stats regressed a bit from historic to merely among the best. The optimistic view is that Beer has impact plus-plus raw power, a long track record of production and will fit as an everyday 1B/DH type. We’re a bit on the pessimistic side, as Beer is a 20 runner whose athleticism has backed up. He may only fit at DH now and we worried his swing was grooved enough that the hit tool may only be a 40, but with plenty of walks and power. The slippery slope to platoon DH is in sight, so we’d like to see some higher minors performance before we adjust our projections.

His pro debut was strong and he’ll likely spend this year at Hi- and/or Double-A at age 22, age-appropriate for prospects, which will show us where he is on the spectrum of expected performance from Dan Vogelbach to Nate Lowe, or maybe Rhys Hoskins at the very high end.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Seminole State JC (OK) (HOU)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 40/50 50/50 45/50 70/70

Perhaps the most divisive prospect in this system, some clubs believe Toro has a chance to play third base everyday while others see a bench bat ceiling on a player who has yet to prove he can handle other positions. He’s a switch-hitter with feel for lifting the baseball from both sides of the plate, makes hard contact, and has plus-plus arm strength when he’s able to step into his throws. But Toro struggles to make throws from athletically challenging platforms, which leads some onlookers to question whether he’s actually a good fit there, and his one-note, pull-heavy approach to contact may be less successful in the big leagues than it has in the lower levels of the minors.

The median opinion has Toro pegged as a switch-hitting bench piece, but he’ll need to learn to play other positions before that can become a reality. Houston briefly tried him at catcher but that experiment ended quickly. The outfield corners are logical avenues to explore.

20. Peter Solomon, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Notre Dame (HOU)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/50 55/55 40/45 40/45 40/45 92-94 / 96

Solomon’s stuff garnered sizable hype when he was in college but he was not a competent strike-thrower and ended up walking 77 hitters in 110 career innings. He has become more mechanically consistent as a pro and now has an improved chance of starting.

He has plus fastball rise, two good breaking balls, and a changeup and cutter in their nascent stages of development. Houston has had success turning college arms like this into good starting pitching prospects, and Solomon’s 2018 was a step in that direction. He has No. 4 or 5 starter stuff if the metamorphosis continues, and either his changeup or breaking ball command sharpen.

21. Brandon Bailey, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Gonzaga (HOU)
Age 24.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 55/55 55/60 50/50 40/45 89-93 / 94

In a prospect pool increasingly full of TrackMan darlings, Bailey might be Grace Kelly. His fastball has premium life, his once-stigmatized stature helps create a flat approach angle that enables his fastball to play at the top of the strike zone, and it helps set up his knee-buckling, 12-6 curveball. His changeup will flash plus and he can vary his breaking ball shape with a slider and relatively new cutter to give hitters different looks. All of these components allow Bailey to strike out lots of batters without big velocity, but his approach to pitching is not conducive to efficient strike-throwing. This, combined with his size, has teams projecting him to the bullpen. He threw 122 strong, albeit walk-heavy, innings last year as an old-for-the-level Carolina Leaguer, often with extended rest. We tend to think he’ll end up in a multi-inning relief role, especially since the tricks that enable his fastball to play may have diminishing returns the second and third time through the order.

22. Framber Valdez, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 25.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/60 40/45 89-94 / 97

Though he may be used as a short term rotation patch, Valdez’s future is likely in the bullpen due to his repertoire depth. Both his two-seamer and curveball induce lots of groundballs (Valdez has a 58% career GB%) and the curve can miss bats when it’s properly set up by the four-seamer. But that’s the whole show and while Valdez has plus velo and nearly elite curveball spin, that may not play for four or five innings at a time. Instead he profiles as a good middle reliever. There are very few lefties on the Houston 40-man, so Valdez will likely play a sizable role on the big league club in 2019.

23. Alex McKenna, CF
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Cal Poly (HOU)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 55/55 30/50 55/55 45/50 50/50

McKenna had a solid Cape Cod League, putting him on the radar for the top couple rounds, but some scouts thought his lack of patience could be his undoing going forward. McKenna is somewhere around the somewhat classic profile of a power-over-hit center fielder with more tools than skills, but that archetype is in demand now more than ever. McKenna has above average raw power and speed and enough hitting skills to get to around average offensively, and around average defensively in center field.

At times, he’s shown a flat-planed swing that doesn’t tap into his power and other times he’s over-aggressive, but Houston thinks they can tap into this skillset and thought he was a nice value with performance and low-end regular upside in the fourth round.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Panama (PHI)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 35/40 20/30 45/45 50/55 55/55

Long in possession of one of the prettier swings in the minors, Arauz had a strong, BABIP-aided first two months (.299/.392/.471) at Low-A and was promoted to Hi-A as a 19-year-old, where he struggled. He’s a switch-hitting middle infielder with above-average bat control, so there are all sorts of exciting hit/power/defensive profile mixes in play, depending on how Arauz develops physically. He has filled out a bit since he first signed (he was acquired from Philly in the Ken Giles deal) but scouts had mixed feelings about his body composition last year, and largely have him projected to second base. If that’s the case, ideally there will be more power than there is right now, and it’s fair to project some based on Arauz’s age.

For now, though, he has very little strength and at times appears to struggle to rip the barrel through the top of the zone and instead is adept at letting the bat do most of the work on pitches near his knees. The lift this creates is intriguing, but there needs to be more raw power if it’s going to matter. He has an outside shot to be a regular at second base but may just end up as a switch-hitting bench infielder.

Drafted: 8th Round, 2015 from USC (HOU)
Age 25.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 55/55 55/55

After a dour, injured 2017 season, Stubbs had a bounce back 2018 and hit .310/.382/.455 at Triple-A. He spent the offseason adding mass to his little frame, a body scouts have long been skeptical about being able to weather the full-season storm of catching. These doubts have been reinforced by Stubbs’ semi-frequent injury issues, which led him to focus on weight gain during the offseason.

His athletic capabilities are clear though, and Stubbs is a good ball blocker, an excellent catch-and-throw guy, and his passable framing may benefit from altering the depth at which he sets up. From a skills standpoint, totally ignoring the issue of durability, he looks like a potential everyday catcher. There has been some industry sentiment that Stubbs would be best deployed as a multi-positional bat, perhaps playing third base and the outfield corners as well as catcher. He hasn’t played other positions in games but has worked with Matt Chapman at third during the offseason, so perhaps he will be allowed to try new things once the season starts.

We have him projected as a contact-oriented, multi-positional bench piece.

26. Cristian Javier, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/50 55/60 45/50 40/45 40/45 89-94 / 95

Javier’s fuzzy shock of hair is the best in the system, and he’s one of the more creative sequencers among Houston farmhands as well. His front side flies way open during disconnection, and the dramatic manner in which his limbs bandy about during his delivery limit his fastball command, but also help create a weird angle on his stuff, which is quite good. He’ll sit in the low-90s, his curveball has premium spin, and Javier can manipulate the shape of his fastball and multiple breaking balls. There’s a chance he ends up in a rotation so long as the command progresses a little bit, and Javier’s feel for pitching is promising in this regard. If it doesn’t, he could be an excellent multi-inning reliever.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Juanita HS (WA) (HOU)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 35/50 89-93 / 94

Schroeder was a pocket follow for most scouts, then his velo spiked in the spring at a Washington state high school, sitting 92-95, and hitting 97 mph, and flashing an above average breaking ball at his best. That often came with some head violence at release, so the Astros tried to calm down his delivery a bit, which led to more average stuff in instructional league, so pro scouts getting first looks weren’t encouraged by what they saw from the second rounder. Being a cold weather velo spike arm, we think there’s a happy medium with back-end starter potential, but prep arms are often a rollercoaster and there was a bit of a dip after the draft.

28. Enoli Paredes, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 60/70 45/55 45/50 35/40 92-96 / 97

Little Enoli’s arm is so fast that it threatens to break the sound barrier and generates a lively mid-90s fastball. Everything about Paredes’ delivery involves max effort, which limits his command but also makes his stuff hellacious and unpredictable in a way that makes him a very uncomfortable at-bat. Not only does he throw hard, but his power curveball has big, bat-missing depth and competes for swings and misses in the zone. His arm speed enables very favorable changeup projection and Paredes already flashes some plus cambios on occasion. He can shorten the curveball into a slider or add cut action to his fastball, but the other three pitches should be sufficient for him to play a strikeout-heavy relief role.

We don’t stick many 23-year-old A-ball relievers on the 40 FV tier of lists, but Paredes only signed at age 19 and hasn’t had as much pro development as other same-aged Latin American players, and he’s not yet occupying a 40-man spot. He has considerable appeal as a trade target and a chance to be a rare 45 FV reliever on this list next year.

35+ FV Prospects

29. Joe Perez, 3B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Archbishop McCarthy HS (FL) (HOU)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Perez was on the scouting radar for his upper-90s fastball, occasionally plus slider, and easy plus raw power at the plate. He was seen primarily as a pitcher who, while raw, also could show you BP power until he broke out with the bat in the spring. He blew up Twitter with a number of tape measure shots and looked like he had a chance to play third base, as well, though there’s questions about his lateral quickness.

After going in the second round in 2017, Perez required Tommy John surgery but the Astros drafted him as a hitter, believing they could tap into the raw power in games more often and that the bat offered more upside than the likely reliever profile. Perez got into games late in 2018 and scouts who saw him in the instructional league weren’t enthusiastic, but it’s still early.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Arizona (HOU)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 206 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Announced as a second baseman when the Astros drafted him, and deployed primarily in left field as a pro, Matijevic’s stiffness and immobility will likely limit him to first base, where he played in college. He has sufficient power to profile there but there have been questions about the contact since high school. He clubbed 22 homers in 2018, mostly at Hi-A, and will force some re-evaluation if he has a big year at Double-A. For now, he projects as a bench bat with limited defensive flexibility.

31. Carlos Sanabria, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (HOU)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Sanabria was moved to the bullpen in 2018 but a lot of teams think he has the repertoire depth and command to start, assuming he retains the same quality stuff for multiple innings. The sizable strikeout totals Sanabria has posted come from his ability to locate his slider and changeup rather than from high-quality stuff, and he’d likely max out as a fifth starter if re-introduced to the rotation.

32. Ross Adolph, CF
Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Toledo (NYM)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 203 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Adolph is an interesting small-school sleeper who hit .322/.445/.654 as a junior at Toledo, then signed for $125,000 as the Mets’ 2018 12th rounder. He continued to rake at short-season Brooklyn after signing, hitting .276/.348/.509 and swiping 14 bases (on 17 attempts) in 60 games. He’s an above-average runner with good instincts in center field, and there’s a chance he can stay there. He could be a 50 bat with gap power who is playable in center, which would make him at least a viable big league fourth outfielder. We whiffed on him pre-draft, but our sources who saw him in pro ball raved, and the industry’s error bars on small school bats are pretty large due to the quality of pitching they face.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 19.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Carrasco is a common type among middle bonus international signees: the skinny, speedy shortstop with some present skills. He signed for $480,000 and performed well as an 18-year-old in the GCL in 2019, with a short taste of short-season ball. He has very little present strength and only has gap power in games, but he has above average contact skills, plus speed, arm strength, and defensive ability, so there’s a chance for some real ceiling if and when the physicality comes along, though it’s more likely he becomes an athletic utility infielder.

34. Jeremy Pena, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Maine (HOU)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Pena was widely considered to be the best collegiate defensive shortstop in the 2018 draft but despite his picturesque swing, he made very little offensive impact against out-of-conference pitching and with woods bats during the summer. The lack of offense likely caps Pena’s ceiling in the bench infielder area, but he has added about 20 pounds of muscle over the offseason and is also a sleeper breakout candidate if it makes a meaningful impact on his contact quality.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 23.2 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Duarte is an energetic, multi-positional speedster with an infectious style of play. He’s an aggressive hitter who strikes out a ton, but he played everywhere but first base and catcher last year and could find a big league role as a versatile bench piece.

36. Reymin Guduan, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2009 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 27.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

There are moments when Guduan looks like one of the more dominant lefty relievers in baseball. He’ll touch 100, his fastball spins and has life, his slider is consistently plus, and he hides the ball well. At other times he’s unplayably wild. The early parts of Guduan’s 2019 spring were encouraging but, at age 27, it’s unlikely the issues that have plagued him for years have suddenly been remedied. He’ll likely be a scintillating and terrifying low-leverage relief piece.

37. Dean Deetz, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2014 from NE Oklahoma A&M JC (HOU)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Deetz is a pretty standard two-pitch, lowish slot middle relief prospect. He has a good curveball and is a dead ringer for Jason Ritter. We typically 40 FV this role, but Deetz is already 25 and has had a PED suspension, so we rounded down a tad.

38. Angel Macuare, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (HOU)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Signed for just south of $700,000 out of Venezuela, Macuare was a polished amateur arm who has been as advertised in two years of pro ball. He has good command of mostly average stuff as a 19-year-old, so there’s a chance he either grows into better stuff through physical maturation, or develops such special command that he doesn’t have to. In either case, he’s got a shot to be a No. 4 or 5.

39. Kit Scheetz, LHP
(HOU)
Age 24.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Signed as an undrafted free agent out of Virginia Tech, Scheetz has reached Double-A and performed at each stop, accumulating a 140:26 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 115 pro innings. He’s a low slot lefty with below-average velocity, on the surface appearing to be of the LOOGY endangered species. But Scheetz can really spin a breaking ball, and has a four-pitch mix that you could argue plays like a six-pitch mix because he likes to vary his arm slot. He could be a non-traditional bullpen mainstay.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Pitching Staff Caboose Types
Jose Luis Hernandez, RHP
R.J. Freure, RHP
Cody Deason, RHP

Hernandez has a plus changeup and plus command. He’s 23 and is a classic spot starter who’ll be in pro ball forever, like a righty Tommy Milone. Freure and Deason are vertical arm slot righties with vertical breaking balls. They were both mid-round 2018 draftees and are likely future relievers.

The Carrying Tool Group
Enmanuel Valdez, INF
Carlos Machado, OF
Chuckie Robinson, C
Scott Manea, C

Valdez, 20, has some pop and feel for contact, as well as good infield hands and actions. He has limited lateral quickness and his frame is pretty maxed out, so it’s hard to say where exactly he’ll fit defensively. Machado has hit a pretty quiet .312 with a .362 OBP over four pro seasons and he does have feel for the barrel. He may not have the power to profile in a corner but the contact feel is promising and he is only 20. If it turns out that he’s an elite contact guy, the power won’t necessarily need to come, but he’s a good-framed 20-year-old, so it might. Robinson and Manea are big-bodied catchers with power who most of the industry thinks can’t catch. Manea, 23, was an undrafted free agent who the Mets sent to Houston in the J.D. Davis trade. Robinson, 24, was a small school guy who hit for big power in 2017, then scuffled at Hi-A last year.

System Overview

This will be Houston’s first full calendar year with a scouting staff comprised largely of in-office analysts who break down high-quality video and integrate their assessments with a slew of data from TrackMan and other cutting edge evaluation technologies. Houston let go of most of their scouts in two waves over two years, and now sends individuals with Edgertronic cameras to amateur games in lieu of traditional area scouts. While this style of scouting has yielded stylistic uniformity across Houston’s prospect population — they almost invariably acquire high-spin, four-seam/curveball pitchers with a 12:30 spin axis, most of whom are adding cutters early in pro ball, while targeting college bats who have performed on paper and have big exit velos — it has also yielded a bunch of talented players, and further use of the tech on the player development side has made those players better.

This is a good farm system even though there are some clear potential long-term pitfalls from having narrow criteria for the players the org targets. For one, the types of pitchers Houston seems to like are becoming more sought after by other teams as a better understanding of how pitching works permeates baseball. Fewer pitchers of this type will be available to Houston as a result, but of course, Houston is likely also identifying players who can be altered to become this type of pitcher, even if they aren’t one yet. One day, there might be repercussions for having a staff full of very similar pitchers, but there’s no way of knowing that.

The Astros are clearly ahead of other teams around the league in some other areas, too. In some ways, it’s becoming easier for those lagging behind to catch up because they can also look to Baltimore and Atlanta, both of which have former Houston employees in prominent roles, to spot trends. In other ways, it’s getting harder to learn about Houston from the outside, as paranoia and acrimony have begun to impact industry discourse about the Astros in a way that makes it difficult to know which rumors about them are true and which are BS. Some of the things that have been mentioned consistently, and which seem plausible and interesting, include experimentation with visual machine learning and work with topical substances to improve pitch spin/movement. Of course, all the Rapsodo and Motus sleeve stuff is already widely known or knowable with quick use of Google.

Expect the 40-man crunch to continue apace here as teams gobble up the overflow of Astros pitching that can’t quite crack their roster.


Top 25 Prospects: Seattle Mariners

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Seattle Mariners. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Mariners Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Justus Sheffield 22.8 MLB LHP 2019 50
2 Yusei Kikuchi 27.7 MLB LHP 2019 50
3 Jarred Kelenic 19.6 R CF 2021 50
4 Justin Dunn 23.5 AA RHP 2019 50
5 Evan White 22.9 AAA 1B 2020 50
6 Shed Long 23.5 AA 2B 2019 50
7 Julio Rodriguez 18.2 R RF 2022 45+
8 Logan Gilbert 21.8 None RHP 2020 45+
9 Kyle Lewis 23.6 AA RF 2020 45
10 Noelvi Marte 17.4 None SS 2023 40+
11 Cal Raleigh 22.3 A- C 2021 40+
12 Erik Swanson 25.5 AAA RHP 2019 40+
13 Sam Carlson 20.3 R RHP 2022 40+
14 Braden Bishop 25.5 AA CF 2019 40
15 Wyatt Mills 24.1 AA RHP 2020 40
16 Jake Fraley 23.8 A+ LF 2020 40
17 Dom Thompson-Williams 23.9 A+ LF 2021 40
18 Juan Querecuto 18.5 R SS 2022 40
19 Gerson Bautista 23.8 MLB RHP 2019 40
20 Matthew Festa 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 40
21 Joey Gerber 21.8 A RHP 2021 40
22 Anthony Misiewicz 24.3 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Jorge Benitez 19.8 A- LHP 2022 35+
24 Luis Liberato 23.2 AA CF 2020 35+
25 Ricardo Sanchez 21.9 AA LHP 2019 35+
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50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Tullahoma HS (TN) (CLE)
Age 22.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/55 45/50 91-96 / 97

Sheffield has now been traded twice: once from Cleveland to New York for Andrew Miller, and then from New York to Seattle for James Paxton. Except for his 2017 Fall League excursion, during which Sheffield had the best stretch of command he’s ever had, he’s had issues throwing strikes. This, combined with some injuries (an oblique strain in 2017, shoulder stiffness in 2018) and the way Sheffield’s body has thickened, has led some scouts to conclude that Sheffield will eventually be a reliever, albeit a very good one due to the quality of his stuff. We don’t think his fastball is going to miss as many bats as you might expect given its velocity. It’s a mid-90s bowling ball sinker with well-below average spin rate. This should pair well with Sheffield’s changeup, but it may not effectively set up his slider, which on its own is excellent. He’s more likely to end up a league-average starter than a middle or top of the rotation type, and he might be a dynamic, multi-inning reliever.

(SEA)
Age 27.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 194 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 60/60 55/55 55/55 45/45 91-95 / 96

One could argue the 27-year-old Kickuchi doesn’t belong on a prospects list, but he’s not even the oldest player on The Board, and you’d probably like to know more about him, so here we go. MLB teams had interest in Kikuchi when he was a teenager and several of them courted him before he was drafted into NPB. Though minor ailments limited his early-career workload, he’s been one of the better starters in Japan for the last six years and has been especially good for the last two, before Saitama posted him. He started getting into pitch design after his parent club installed a TrackMan unit in 2016.

Like a lot of Japanese pitchers, Kikuchi has a kitchen sink repertoire that features a splitter and various breaking balls. Everything is above-average, except for Kikuchi’s fastball. Mechanically, Kikuchi is similar to MacKenzie Gore, although his stride direction is more direct to the plate and his delivery has a brief intermission as his landing leg descends (pause) then everything comes home. His arm action is efficient and Kikuchi’s slot is vertical, something it seems that more analytically inclined teams prefer. He sounds like a mid-rotation starter who, for our purposes, will enter his decline phase earlier than everyone else on this list because of his age.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Waukesha West HS (WI) (NYM)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 196 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 55/55 20/50 55/50 45/50 60/60

Kelenic was one of four prep hitters in the 2018 class — along with Brice Turang, Alek Thomas, and Mike Siani — who played together in the Team USA pipeline for years; all got top-two round money in the draft. Kelenic is the best of the group because he offers the best contact skills while also being tied for having the most raw power, speed, and defensive value. His well-rounded skillset enticed the Mets to take him sixth overall, but he was then traded by new GM Brodie Van Wagnen as the headliner to acquire Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz. Kelenic is an intense competitor who works tirelessly, to the point that some teammates and scouts think he should reel it back in a bit at times, though they point out they’d rather have a guy who’s too dedicated than one who’s not enough. He’s a plus straight-line runner but more of a 55 on the field, and thus isn’t a slam dunk to stick in center. But he has 55 raw power, so there’s enough thump to profile if he ends up sliding over to right field, where his plus arm would also fit.

4. Justin Dunn, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Boston College (NYM)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 50/55 45/50 92-95 / 97

A college reliever until midway through his junior year at Boston College, Dunn’s repertoire has developed quickly and he now has four above-average pitches. Both of his breaking balls (a slider in the mid-80s and an upper-70s curve) work because he has terrific command of both, almost always locating them down and to his glove side in places that are enticing but unhittable. This wanes when he’s pitching from the stretch. His fastball command is below average but he throws hard enough to get away with mistakes, sitting 92-95 and touching 97. His changeup came on late in the year and will flash plus. It’s firm, 85-88mph, but some of them have a lot of arm side movement and will still miss bats. Dunn finished 2018 at Double-A and has a shot to debut next year, but more likely sees Safeco in 2020.

5. Evan White, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Kentucky (SEA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 40/50 60/55 60/70 55/55

We now have a full season of data to help us figure out whether Evan White’s weird profile is going to play. A plus-running, backwards guy (he bats right and throws left, a generally unfavorable combination due to the defensive limitations and platoon issues caused by both) who plays plus defense at first base, White was slugging .391 at the start of August, which is rather uninspiring for a college hitter in the Cal League. By the end of the month, however, White had 30 hits in 90 plate appearances and was slugging .763.

He has made subtle changes to his lower half, drawing his front knee back toward his rear hip more than he did at Kentucky, and taking a longer stride back toward the pitcher. White is more often finishing with a flexed front leg, which has helped him go down and lift balls in the bottom part of the strike zone by adjusting his lower half instead of his hands. White looked good during the Arizona Fall League, too, squelching some concern that he was just a polished college hitter beating up on Cal League pitching. He’s one of the more bizarre players in the minors.

6. Shed Long, 2B
Drafted: 12th Round, 2013 from Jacksonville HS (AL) (CIN)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 8″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 55/55 40/50 55/55 40/45 50/50

After a bad 42-game initial foray into Double-A in 2017, Long’s BABIP and overall statline rebounded in his 2018 full season campaign at Pensacola, where he hit .261/.353/.412 with 12 homers and 19 steals. A converted catcher, with rare straight-line speed for a backstop but the stereotypically excellent catcher makeup, Long is still not a very good second baseman and has below average hands and clunky footwork. He has now been playing there regularly for three and a half seasons, and his development has plateaued. We still have him projected as a 45 defender at second base but also think there’s an increased chance that he eventually moves to the outfield. It would be much easier for Long to profile were he to stay at second base, where big leaguers slashed a collective .254/.317/.395 (good for a 93 wRC+) in 2018. The outfield corners are not so kind. Ultimately, Long has some power and his thunderous uppercut swing is going to enable him to get to it in games, even if his contact profile is fringy. That will play everyday at second base so long as he can. Since acquiring him, the Mariners have used Shed at second, third, and in left field. He’s looked pretty good at third for not having played there and he’s hit well in big league spring training games.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 18.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 55/65 30/60 45/40 40/50 55/60

It isn’t often that people in baseball begin recounting their thoughts on a player as talented as Rodriguez with fawning anecdotes about the player’s maturity, but that is almost always what happens when scouts talk about Julio. He is an old, reflective soul with an adolescent’s enthusiasm for baseball in the body of a Division I tight end. Because Rodriguez spent his 2018 summer in the DSL (which isn’t heavily scouted) and Seattle eschews game action during instructional league, if people in baseball wanted a look at Rodriguez they sought out the highlight clips he would upload to his Instagram account. He hit .315/.404/.525 in the DSL, so there were plenty of those. His feed is also full of group photos with other young prospects and several big leaguers, all of whom Rodriguez is taller than.

The convergence of his physical, technical, and seeming emotional maturity have caused Seattle to publicly consider skipping Rodriguez over the AZL and Northwest League in favor of sending him right to their new Low-A affiliate in Charleston, West Virginia as a young 18-year-old. The cultural assimilation curve may be steep, but Rodriguez is talented enough to have on-field success there. His approach is quiet and would appear contact-oriented if not for his prodigious natural strength, which turns would-be flare singles into gap doubles, and causes mis-hit flyouts to threaten the warning track. He could end up with a plus bat and plus power, plenty to profile in an outfield corner, hit in the middle of a good order, and perhaps be a perennial All-Star. The Kelenic/Rodriguez duo is refined enough that they each might be promoted at a pace that more closely mimics college players than recently-acquired teenagers, which would enable them to have more big league overlap with the crop of twenty-somethings the org acquired in the Paxton/Diaz deals.

8. Logan Gilbert, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Stetson (SEA)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 87-92 / 96

We don’t typically project such a strong post-draft uptick in velocity for a college starter, but Gilbert was worked so hard during his junior year at Stetson that we believe the velo he showed last year was beneath what we’ll see with a more regimented workload as a pro. He was sitting 92-96 as a rising sophomore on Cape Cod, but often sat 90-94, and sometimes 88-91, throughout his starts the following spring. While we anticipate a rebound — and Gilbert has been 94-97 in bullpens and simulated environments this spring — college starters often experience a slight downturn in velo because they’re being asked to go every fifth day for five months instead of once a week for three and a half. While there’s a wide array of potential outcomes for Gilbert’s fastball, his command, breaking ball quality, prototypical frame, and mechanical consistency have been stable. He at least profiles as a quick-moving backend starter, but could be a mid-rotation arm if the velo comes back, and he’s a good bet to be on our mid-year top 100 update.

45 FV Prospects

9. Kyle Lewis, RF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Mercer (SEA)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/65 45/55 50/45 45/50 60/60

We still know less about Lewis than is typical of a 23-year-old prospect, largely due to the significant time he missed because of a 2016 ACL tear suffered just a month after his pro debut. The injury washed away the rest of 2016 and essentially all of 2017, as a visibly hobbled Lewis stopped and started baseball activity several times due to ongoing issues with the knee. He even began 2018 with a month-long stay on the injured list because he wasn’t a full go when spring training began. He was healthy for the rest of 2018 but his performance was mixed, and his tools beneath where they were in college. He was clearly less explosive than most of his peers at the Futures Game were, but of course at that point he had only been playing healthy, regular baseball for about two months.

This spring, the physical ability that had scouts calling Lewis the most talented prospect on Cape Cod — and that drove him to near the top of 2016 draft boards — has returned. That injured right knee looks healthy as it twists and bends through contact. It’s shouldering more of a mechanical burden now than it was in 2017, certainly, and Lewis is taking healthy but comfortable hacks with the same natural flyball loft he exhibited in college. He’s hit a few impressive spring training homers but has also swung through quite a few fastballs in the zone, some in the 90-92 mph range. Teams were concerned about potential strikeout issues in college, concerns that were exacerbated by the small-school competition he faced, which served to limit the confidence teams had in his performance. This year is not only important for Lewis’ development but for the industry’s understanding of his profile. He finally appears healthy and he has heart-of-the order offensive talent so long as he doesn’t have severe contact issues.

40+ FV Prospects

10. Noelvi Marte, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 17.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/55 45/40 40/50 45/50

Marte, who signed for $1.5 million last July, was one of the more exciting power hitters in the class. For the second straight year, the Mariners’ top international signee was a strong-bodied prospect more physically mature than the typical teenager. With broad, tapered shoulders and a sizable lower half, he body comps to Jonathan Schoop and like Schoop, he projects to move off of shortstop at some point. His size prohibits projection at the position on its own, and Marte’s hands were also inconsistent as an amateur; some international scouts thought he might move to the outfield.

But Marte has the thunderous, pull-side power to profile just about anywhere, especially if he can stay on the dirt. He should end up with plus raw power at peak, perhaps more. He has a long, slow leg kick that doesn’t add much to his swing efficacy right now, as most of Marte’s power comes from pure hand speed and strength, but that will likely improve with reps. He’s a volatile, exciting young prospect who may be on the Julio Rodriguez development track, which would mean we likely won’t see him play much in the U.S. until 2020.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Florida State (SEA)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 55/55 40/55 45/40 40/50 55/55

Raleigh switched his college commitment from Clemson to Florida State late when the Clemson head coach was fired after the season, freeing up signees to move. One other Clemson signee, current Royals right-handed pitcher Jackson Kowar, switched to Florida and cost the Tigers two solid three-year contributors. Raleigh had a big bonus number out of high school and was well-rounded, but had enough questions that clubs didn’t feel comfortable going well past the $1 million mark.

At Florida State, he developed skills that work best in today’s game: he’s not seen as a lock to stick at a catcher but has above average arm strength to work with and is a plus framer according to some clubs’ metrics. He’s seen as a below average hit, above average power type at the plate and with the sorry state of big league catching, that adds up to a regular if things continue developing in this way. We’ve heard of at least two other clubs that attempted to get Raleigh to their pick in the draft for an overslot bonus when Seattle stepped in and ruined those plans — the best way to confirm that a player has industry trade value — so we’ve moved him up just a bit since our draft day 40 FV grade.

12. Erik Swanson, RHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2014 from Iowa Western JC (IA) (TEX)
Age 25.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 45/50 50/55 91-95 / 96

Swanson’s fastball exhibits several of the nuanced traits that aid velocity in missing bats. For one, his heater has a 12:30 spin axis, which means it has nearly perfect backspin, better enabling fastball rise. It also has an approach angle that plays well at the top of the strike zone, which, in combination with the rise and velocity, makes it the archetypal modern fastball. His secondary stuff is quite average but as long as he is locating his mid-80s slider and changeup — something he has struggled with in his big league appearances this spring — he should at least be a good backend starter or multi-inning reliever, and it’s possible the secondary fastball characteristics are so strong that we’re underselling him a little bit.

13. Sam Carlson, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Burnsville HS (MN) (SEA)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 50/60 40/55 89-93 / 94

Carlson has thrown just three pro innings since signing, as the minor flexor strain that shelved him after his draft turned out to be a prelude to surgery. He was given a PRP injection in an attempt to avoid Tommy John, but it was unsuccessful and he went under the knife in early July of 2018. The timing of the surgery may keep Carlson out for all of 2019. When he finally returns, he’ll be a 21-year-old with less developmental polish than a lot of teenage prospects from year-round baseball areas like Florida and Texas, as a former a two-way, cold-weather high schooler who will have missed about 30 consecutive months of reps.

The summer before his senior year, Carlson was 88-92 with better command and changeup feel than is typical for a northern prep arm. His velocity ticked up the following spring and he was touching 96, then sat 92-95 in his few pro innings before his injury. If his stuff comes back, he has No. 4 starter upside.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Washington (SEA)
Age 25.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 50/50 40/40 70/70 70/70 55/55

Bishop’s 2018 season ended in July when he was hit by a pitch and suffered a fractured forearm. Though he has made swing tweaks that have dropped his groundball rate from a whopping 60% to 48% (which is still greater than league average), he is unlikely to do much offensive damage, and probably not enough to profile as an average everyday player. But he can really go get it in center field, and could turn into a Kevin Pillar type of regular who ends up playing every day simply because of how good he is in the field. A plus-plus runner with expansive range at the position, Bishop is capable of turning would-be extra-base hits into outs, and his speed and instincts on the basepaths will make him a dynamic pinch running option if he ends up in a bench outfield role, which most teams believe to be his median outcome. He’ll likely spend most of 2019 in Tacoma but could be up in September.

15. Wyatt Mills, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Gonzaga (SEA)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 45/55 50/55 92-94 / 95

Mills has several traits that are atypical not only of side-arm relievers, but of relievers in general. For one, he throws harder than most side-armers and will have outings where he sits comfortably in the 93-95 range with his fastball, while dropping down into the 91-94 range in others. He also throws an unusually high ratio of strikes for a bullpen arm; 70% of his 2018 fastballs went for strikes. In addition to his dastardly slider, Mills also has a pretty good changeup, which helps to mitigate platoon issues that might otherwise be worse given his arm slot. In our estimation, the strike-throwing and changeup give Mills a better chance of playing a high-leverage or multi-inning role than the other relief-only prospects in this system. A caveat here is that Mills did not throw on back-to-back days in 2018 and often had several days of rest between appearances, so we’re not sure how his stuff might respond to the more varied usage necessitated by the big league environment.

16. Jake Fraley, LF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from LSU (TBR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 35/45 55/55 50/55 40/40

Fraley went 77th overall in 2016, in the comp round after the second round. That’s right around the range in the draft where the college hitters come with some warts and project more as role players than potential regulars. Fraley was a plus runner who projected in center field as an amateur but he has lost a step in pro ball and profiles as more of a tweener now, with offensive skills that don’t overwhelm, so the outcome is most likely bench outfielder of some stripe. There’s a shot he can stay healthy, add some loft to his swing, maintain some contact skills, and end up as a Ben Gamel-esque soft 50 FV for a couple seasons, but he’s more likely to fall in the Jake Cave or Billy McKinney region where a swing change ensures a big league role.

Seattle acquired Fraley from the Rays, their best friend from trade camp, in the Mike Zunino/Mallex Smith swap this winter. Needs lined up, as Seattle was looking for cheap potential MLB contributors in the next season or two, and Tampa has a never-ending 40-man crunch to manage.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (NYY)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 35/50 55/55 50/55 50/50

In addition to his high school baseball stardom, Thompson-Williams was a good wide receiver and safety in Sioux City, Iowa. It’s rare that an athlete like this gets to college at all, let alone a junior college, but DTW spent the first two years of his college career at Iowa Western JC, then transferred to South Carolina, where he answered any lingering questions about whether he could translate his raw athleticism into on-field performance against pro-level competition.

He had a breakout 20/20 season at Hi-A last year, albeit as a 23-year-old. He has big raw power but there are questions about how readily he’ll be able to get to it in games, and teams have varying opinions about whether or not he can stay in center field. There’s low-end everyday upside if things continue to come together at the plate the way they did in 2018. More likely, Thompson-Williams is a useful platoon at multiple outfield spots, or as a player who can provide some thump and speed off the bench. Given his shorter track record and age, that’s a 40 FV for now with a chance to turn into a 45 FV with upper-level performance, which would reinforce notions that his 2018 on-paper production was real.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/55 40/45 20/40 45/50 45/50 55/60

Querecuto suffered a torn meniscus in February, but his physical immaturity almost certainly had him ticketed for the AZL, so while he may be brought along slowly as minor league spring training gets underway, he should be fine for game action during extended spring training, and when rookie ball starts in June. He’s a graceful but unexplosive shortstop, with a limber, projectable frame. His arm and body control are clean fits at short, though his first step leaves a bit to be desired. He may grow into some power as his body matures, which may enable him to play every day, but it’s more likely that he becomes a utility type.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/50 45/45 40/40 92-97 / 99

Bautista was part of Seattle’s return in the Diaz/Cano trade (the Mets acquired him from Boston for Addison Reed at the 2017 trade deadline). He’s an arm strength-dependent reliever who’ll likely lose list eligibility sometime this season. He throws really hard and has been in the 96-97 mph range in his big league outings this spring while showing a slightly improved slider. It doesn’t move much, but it moves quite a bit considering how hard it is, sitting in the 86-87 mph range this spring. It has mostly horizontal action when Bautista is locating it to his glove side but has more vertical action to it when it’s closer to the middle of the plate. The secondary stuff for high-leverage duty probably isn’t here, and we have Bautista projected as a middle reliever.

20. Matthew Festa, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from East Stroudsburg (SEA)
Age 26.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/55 50/50 45/50 92-94 / 96

The movement profiles on Festa’s four and two-seam fastballs are sufficiently different that he’s one of the few prospects for whom we wish we had separate columns on The Board for each fastball classification. It’s imperative that Festa not only vary the shape of his fastball but that he work with his slider often because for a reliever, he doesn’t throw especially hard. His repertoire depth is a significant part of why he’s likely to be successful in the big leagues. Both his heavily-used slider and curveball are of big league quality and can miss bats when located, and Festa has a serviceable changeup. He’ll probably be the first East Stroudsburg University alum to log significant big league time in over a century and will likely graduate off this list in 2019.

21. Joey Gerber, RHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2018 from Illinois (SEA)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/55 40/50 40/45 92-95 / 96

Gerber was 104th in our pre-draft rankings, and Seattle ended up popping him in the eighth round, 238th overall, in what looked immediately like a great value for a slipped-through-the-cracks prospect. Gerber was widely scouted, but clubs often start saving money by taking seniors around the fifth round, lining up 11th round picks to spend their savings on and scooping up the last signable prep prospects, or generally looking for upside and/or low cost players. In those situations, potential middle relievers who sign for about slot can sometimes be overlooked, although the 2017 version was Pirates seventh rounder Jared Oliva, a tools-over-performance corner outfielder, another demographic clubs are hesitant to take in the 5th-8th rounds. Gerber sits 92-95 and hits 96 mph with above average life, and mixes in an above average slider, a changeup that flashes average, and a combination of tempo and deception that keeps hitters off balance. He’s probably not a setup man or a closer but he’s not that different than Giants third rounder Jake Wong, who signed for $850,000, while Gerber went five rounds later and signed for $167,400, and may move even faster through the system. These are the kind of small edges a rebuilding system needs to grab when they’re available.

Drafted: 18th Round, 2015 from Michigan State (SEA)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/55 55/60 45/45 45/50 91-94 / 95

Part of the growing support group of players who have been traded and then reacquired by Jerry Dipoto, Misiewicz made just five starts for the Rays before they shipped him back to Seattle after the 2017 season. He’s an athletic lefty with a bevy of average or better pitches that should enable him to operate as a fifth starter or multi-inning reliever. Though his fastball plays up a little bit due to extension and occasionally has bat-missing movement, it’s fairly hittable when left in the strike zone and Misiewicz will likely have to make frequent use of his changeup and breaking ball. It’s unclear if he has two separate breaking balls or if Misiewicz is simply adept at subtle speed/shape manipulation of the same pitch, but the utility of each version is different enough that we have it graded as two different pitches. Regardless, there’s sufficient fifth starter stuff here, especially if there’s a way to alter his fastball shape and usage in a way that makes it less vulnerable in the strike zone.

35+ FV Prospects

23. Jorge Benitez, LHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2017 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SEA)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

A good get for $150,000 in the ninth round of his draft, Benitez is a slightly atypical teenage projection arm with feel for spin. Similar to the way Triston McKenzie was viewed by a minority of teams, some clubs thought Benitez’s measurables were misleading as to his projectability and that his frame was so slight that there was nowhere to put extra mass. So far Benitez’s fastball is up a little bit from high school but still south of the average big league heater, and we now have quantifiable verification that he can spin his breaking ball well (about 2500 rpm on average). If the velocity suddenly pops, he’ll shoot up past the relief-only types on this list as Benitez will have a better chance of starting.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Though he posted the lowest strikeout rate of his career in 2018 amid a minor swing change, Liberato still did not perform in a semi-repeat of Hi-A. His stance has closed off but there’s still a lot of noise in his hands and he only does damage on balls down and in; there’s a lot of work to be done if Liberato is going to hit enough to play everyday, despite his physical talent. He still has bench outfielder tools. There’s some pull-side power here, a plus arm, and the speed to play center when Liberato is healthy, which he really wasn’t last year. He was left back in extended spring training until late May with hamstring soreness and saw more time in left field than in center for the first time in his career. Never an efficient base stealer, Liberato was successful in just two of his seven attempts and didn’t even try to swipe a bag after June. He was running better in the Dominican Winter League and we still like his chances of bouncing back and finding his way onto a big league bench, though there are now several other left-handed hitting outfielders ahead of him in this system.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (LAA)
Age 21.9 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

21-year-old lefties who can spin a breaking ball don’t often end up in DFA limbo, but the Braves glut of talented young pitchers forced the developmentally stagnant Sanchez off the 40-man this past winter. He has been pretty much the same pitcher since he was 19-years-old, possessing enviable stuff but never the mechanical consistency to harness it. Sanchez has had a low-90s fastball (that will touch as high as 95 early in outings) and good lefty curveball since before Anaheim sent him to Atlanta for Kyle Kubitza back in 2015, and that combination drives a perfectly fine lefty relief profile, especially if Sanchez can air it out for an inning at a time and adds a few ticks to his fastball as a result. He’s only 22 and will have ample opportunity to make relevant tweaks and adjustments against big league hitters on a quickly rebuilding Seattle club.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Corner Hitters With Fringy Offensive Profiles
Joe Rizzo, 3B
Dan Vogelbach, DH
Joey Curletta, 1B
Eric Filia, 1B/RF
Keegan McGovern, 1B
Ariel Sandoval, RF

We’ve never been huge on Rizzo despite his obvious feel for contact because his frame has been maxed out since high school and we weren’t sure where sufficient power was going to come from, especially if he were to ever move off of third base. He’s still just 20 and had respectable peripherals at Hi-A last year, so we’ll continue to keep tabs on him despite our skepticism. Vogelbach and Curletta might each see big league time this year. Vogelbach’s approach prioritizes contact over the type of selectivity he’d need to have to get to all his power. His bat control makes this approach viable, but it may not generate offense that clears the bar at 1B/DH. He may be a good buy low target for an NL team trying to get ahead of the universal DH implementation. Like a lot of Dodgers and ex-Dodgers, Curletta’s batted ball profile has shifted and become flyball heavy over the course of several years. He did have 23 dingers last year, though he was a 24-year-old in Double-A and struck out quite a bit. Those two are both younger than Filia, who has raked for his entire college and pro career amid several off-field issues and a trade that fell through due to a medical red flag. He may fall into a late-career Lenny Harris type role if a team has enough defensive flexibility elsewhere on its roster. McGovern was a high-priority senior sign who remade his physique and had a tool uptick. He’s 23 and will need to move quickly. Sandoval has big power and runs well, but the 33% strikeout rate is ominous.

Sleeper Arms
Sam Delaplane, RHP
Deivy Florido, RHP
David McKay, RHP
Brayan Perez, LHP

Delaplane has a 2700 rpm curveball and low-90s sinker, and he hides the ball pretty well and K’d 100 hitters in 60 innings at Low-A last year. Because he’s a cold-weather college arm, it’s a little more acceptable that he performed that way at 23, and we think he’s an interesting sleeper who might get pushed quickly this year. Florido will be 18 all year. He sits 87-89, has modest physical projection, advanced fastball control, and feel for spin. McKay was part of a group of minor league players the Mariners acquired from the Royals for cash early in 2018, presumably for minor league depth reasons. Seattle ‘penned him, and it turns out McKay is actually a decent fastball/slider middle relief prospect. Perez is an 18-year-old pitchability lefty who threw well in the DSL; his stuff is currently a bunch of 45s and 50s and his arm action is good, but the frame limits projection.

Older Relievers
Nick Rumbelow, RHP
Art Warren, RHP
Brandon Brennan, RHP

These are all relief or depth types in the age 25-27 range. Seattle gave up Juan Then to acquire Rumbelow from the Yankees and he barely pitched last year due to a nerve issue in his neck. When healthy, he’s 92-95, and touches 97, with an above-average changeup and slider. Warren pared his repertoire down and is now a fastball/slider middle relief prospect of somewhat advanced age. Brennan was the team’s Rule 5 pickup; his report is available here.

System Overview

This list, of course, looks much different than last year’s iteration, which was arguably the saddest list we’ve ever done, the Charlie Brown Christmas tree of prospect lists. Of course, stocking this system with several of the high-profile names now present cost Seattle 2018’s best reliever, a shortstop with a 70 bat, a Dominican icon, an emerging if perhaps unassuming face of the franchise, and Mike Zunino.

Most of the prospects Seattle acquired in return are relatively close to the majors, supporting the front office’s public assertions that this will be a short-term rebuild. Additionally, the two teenagers in the system most likely to be stars (Rodriguez and Kelenic) are quite advanced for their age, and could be on an accelerated developmental path that enables them to overlap for a while in the big leagues with the other 50 FV prospects in the system, even though they are about four or five years older than Kelenic and Rodriguez on average.

There will be prospect entropy — J.P. Crawford, who doesn’t look so great thus far in the spring, is a great example of this. Not all of these guys will end up as good as we and the Mariners currently project them to be, and this system is still pretty thin beyond the names who were brought on this offseason. The structure of the rebuild indicates intelligent design, but chaos and entropy will play their role. Mitch Haniger (who looks like a star), Domingo Santana (who has the talent to be one), and the charismatic Mallex Smith (who may sneakily already be one) will be fun to watch while the kids grow up.

We still don’t know a lot about this org’s player development. The swollen physiques of the Jack Zduriencik era seem to be a thing of the past as the strength and conditioning program has improved, but this group really hasn’t had much talent to mold, let alone enough to draw results-based conclusions about the player dev approach, and the cement is pretty dry on the 50 FV prospects listed above.

How much better is this system now than at the end of the year? It was last by a good bit in Craig’s end-of-season analysis and, while we consider re-working our math, it has currently moved up into the 14-19 range in all of baseball.


Top 30 Prospects: Oakland Athletics

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Oakland Athletics. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Athletics Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jesus Luzardo 21.4 AAA LHP 2019 55
2 Sean Murphy 24.4 AAA C 2019 55
3 A.J. Puk 23.9 AA LHP 2019 55
4 Austin Beck 20.3 A CF 2021 45
5 Jorge Mateo 23.7 AAA SS 2019 45
6 Jameson Hannah 21.6 A- CF 2021 45
7 Lazaro Armenteros 19.8 A LF 2021 40+
8 Sheldon Neuse 24.2 AAA 3B 2019 40+
9 Jeremy Eierman 22.5 A- SS 2021 40+
10 Nick Allen 20.4 A SS 2022 40
11 James Kaprielian 25.0 A+ RHP 2019 40
12 Daulton Jefferies 23.6 A+ RHP 2020 40
13 Grant Holmes 22.9 AA RHP 2019 40
14 Marcos Brito 19.0 A- 2B 2022 40
15 Parker Dunshee 24.1 AA RHP 2019 40
16 Luis Barrera 23.3 AA CF 2019 40
17 Skye Bolt 25.1 AA CF 2019 40
18 Jordan Diaz 18.6 R 3B 2022 40
19 Greg Deichmann 23.8 A+ RF 2020 40
20 Kevin Merrell 23.2 A+ 2B 2021 40
21 Brian Howard 23.9 AA RHP 2019 40
22 Miguel Romero 24.9 AA RHP 2019 40
23 Gus Varland 22.3 A RHP 2021 40
24 Alfonso Rivas 22.5 A- 1B 2021 35+
25 Dalton Sawyer 25.3 AAA LHP 2019 35+
26 Hogan Harris 22.2 R LHP 2020 35+
27 Jhoan Paulino 17.7 R SS 2024 35+
28 Alexander Campos 19.0 R 2B 2023 35+
29 Lawrence Butler 18.6 R RF 2023 35+
30 Jose Mora 21.4 A- RHP 2021 35+
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55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Stoneman Douglas HS (FL) (WAS)
Age 21.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr L / L FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/60 45/55 92-95 / 98

The summer before his senior year of high school, Luzardo looked like a relatively unprojectable pitchability lefty, albeit an advanced one. His fastball was only in the 88-92 range at Area Codes, though his changeup and curveball were each above-average. He did not throw during the fall and instead devoted more time to working out. The following spring, with a new physique, Luzardo’s stuff was way up across the board, his fastball now sitting comfortably in the mid-90s, touching 97. Four starts into his senior season, Luzardo tore his UCL and need Tommy John.

After most of the first three rounds of the 2016 draft had come and gone it seemed as though Luzardo might end up at the University of Miami. Four outings (including the one during which he broke) was not enough time for many teams to have high-level decision makers in to see him and take him early, but the Nationals (who have a history of drafting pitchers who have fallen due to injury) called his name and signed him for $1.4 million, a bonus equivalent to an early second rounder. Luzardo rehabbed as a National and continued to strengthen his body. When he returned the following summer, his stuff had completely returned. He made just three starts for the GCL Nats before he was traded to Oakland as part of the Sean Doolittle/Ryan Madson deal.

He has quickly climbed Oakland’s minor league ladder and reached Triple-A at age 20 in 2018. Those crafty pitchability traits from high school are still extant. Luzardo will vary the shape of his breaking ball — he can throw it for strikes to get ahead of hitters, he back foot it to righties — and he uses his changeup against lefties and righties. His delivery is a bit violent but it doesn’t inhibit his command, and Luzardo’s musculature seems better able to deal with the effort than it was when he was in high school. His fastball, which has been up to 97 in his big league appearances this spring, may not play like a mid-90s heater because he is undersized and a short-strider, but he locates it well enough to avoid getting hurt.

He has mid-rotation upside and is abnormally polished. We may see him in Oakland this year.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Wright State (OAK)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 55/55 40/50 20/20 50/55 70/70

Once a walk-on at Wright State, Murphy has become one of the more well-rounded catching prospects in the minors. He has always had near elite arm strength but because he didn’t catch much pro-quality stuff in college, his receiving and ball-blocking were undercooked for a college prospect when he first entered pro ball. Those aspects of his defense have vastly improved, and he’s now an average defender with a chance to be above, and his arm douses opposing baserunners.

Murphy also has plus raw power, though he hasn’t typically hit for it in games for various reasons. In college, a broken hamate likely masked his power and was part of the reason he fell to the 2016 draft’s third round. In pro ball, his swing has been very compact, relying on Murphy’s raw strength rather than efficient biomechanical movement to deliver extra-bases. He broke his other hamate last year. Murphy’s nearly .500 SLG at Double-A Midland is above what we expect moving forward, and instead think Murphy will be a high-contact bat with doubles power, which would be an above-average regular behind the plate.

3. A.J. Puk, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Florida (OAK)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / L FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 60/60 50/55 55/60 45/50 93-96 / 97

It’s counterintuitive to call a lefty with a plus slider and mid-90s velocity a ‘breakout’ candidate, but that’s exactly what Puk looked like during 2018 Spring Training before he tore his UCL and needed Tommy John. Puk was soft-bodied and relatively unathletic as an amateur, but he arrived to Mesa in good shape and his landing leg was more stable throughout his delivery, leading to superior command than he had had at Florida. Additionally, Puk dusted off his high school curveball and reintroduced it to his repertoire. His feel for it returned very quickly, and it was comfortably average near the end of spring and gave him a fresh way of starting off at-bats the second and third time through a lineup. His changeup was also better than it had been in college, and looked like a potential plus pitch.

Scouts thought he had a chance to reach Oakland by year’s end, and a surprisingly competitive Oakland club would have been motivated to move him quickly. Puk has recently begun throwing bullpens and should be going full-tilt later in the spring. He appeared to have No. 2 or 3 starter upside before his injury.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from North Davidson HS (NC) (OAK)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 30/55 60/55 40/50 60/60

Beck was a name in the back pocket of area scouts in the Carolinas entering the winter of his draft year. Then word started to trickle out that the kid who had missed the summer and fall showcases with an ACL tear had turned into a completely different player, one who now had 70 bat speed. Early in the spring, videos of his first few majestic homers led to a rush of national crosscheckers and scouting directors getting in to see Beck, as most of them never had before. It’s rare for a prep hitter to land in the first 10 picks with only one spring of looks and data, none of it on TrackMan, and almost none of it against pro-quality pitching, but Beck’s tools were just that loud: 70 bat speed, easy plus raw power, plus speed, and a plus arm.

It’s similar to how Clint Frazier looked at the same stage, though Frazier had a long summer of production, faced strong prep competition, and still only went fifth overall. Beck’s pro debut revealed some weaknesses that aren’t evident against mediocre prep pitching and he was clearly overmatched in the AZL during his first pro summer and often visibly frustrated. He was 19 in Low-A last year and was able to hit for average, but very little power. Like Frazier, Beck has a good chance to lose a step as his body matures, and move to right field as a result, so pressure is on the bat. Pro scouts don’t see the impact power that amateur scouts saw. We’re cautiously optimistic that improved strength and swing work will tease out more game power during his age-20 season in the hitter-friendly Cal League.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 55/55 40/45 80/80 45/50 55/55

Not only was Mateo unable to carry his torrid 60-game offensive stretch at Double-A into 2018 (half with New York before the 2017 Sonny Gray trade, half with Oakland after it), but he had his worst statistical season to date, as he reached base just 28% of the time.

He remains one of the more physically gifted players not only in this system, but in all of the minor leagues. He is a no-doubt 80 runner who circled the bases during an inside-the-park home run in the Dominican this winter in just 14.40 seconds. That’s approaching Byron Buxton territory even though Mateo paused on his way to first and slowed up as he approached and needlessly slid in to home. He also has above-average raw power that he has never manifested in games due to a variety of issues that make it unlikely he ever will. His lower half usage in the box is sub-optimal, he too often expands the zone, and he frequently settles for middling, opposite-field contact.

These have been Mateo’s issues for over seven years now, and with each passing season, they’re less and less likely to improve. But because Mateo has such prodigious athletic gifts and is going to play somewhere up the middle (he has the physical tools for shortstop and has looked fine there in big league trials this spring, but remains procedurally immature), he’s likely to force his way on the field somehow, and he has a better chance of making a big league impact than everyone below him on this list. That’s probably as a low-end regular or utility type, with a dwindling chance for stardom if the tools suddenly actualize.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Dallas Baptist (OAK)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/45 60/60 45/50 40/40

Hannah had three remarkably consistent years at Dallas Baptist and ended his college career with a .340 average. He has excellent hitter’s timing and bat control, and his swing is athletic but compact, enabling not only high rates of contact, but also promising contact quality. That’s not to say Hannah will have in-game power. He’s a line drive hitter, an old school, two-hole type of hitter, the kind who’s sort of an endangered species in the current big league hitting environment. Some teams considered Hannah’s lack of power to be a bit of an issue in their pre-draft evals and thought he was more of a tweener fourth outfield type, a projection echoed by pro scouts who saw Hannah in the summer and fall.

He has plus speed, speed that Hannah exhibited during instructional league even after he had been shut down for the summer with a foot injury. His frame is maxed out and he can’t afford to slow down much and still be viable in center field every day, but while this creates some long term risk for his profile, he’s fine out there right now. His most likely path to a sizable everyday role involves Hannah out-hitting what we currently have projected for his bat.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (OAK)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 182 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 55/60 30/50 60/55 40/50 40/40

One of the last teenage Cuban prospects to leave the island before a new CBA implemented a hard-slotted international bonus system, Lazarito remains a polarizing and volatile prospect. Teams left his amateur workouts with widely varying opinions about his talent, especially his defensive future, and the situation became more unsettled when his American agent had to cut ties with him after receiving death threats from Lazarito’s Latin American trainer/investor. Once that situation resolved, Armenteros signed for $3 million, then came stateside and looked concerningly raw, but clearly talented. His timing and breaking ball recognition were especially poor, but he hadn’t seen live pitching for a long time, meaning it could have been due to rust. As the spring and summer of 2017 wore on, he started to develop a much better feel at the plate and by the fall of 2017, was hitting lasers to all fields off of curated instructional-league pitching.

The Athletics pushed him to Low-A as a 19-year-old in 2018 and Armenteros posted a serviceable .277/.374/.401 line while striking out at a disquieting 34% clip. The K% is less worrisome because of his age, but he does have a bat path that limits the scope of his contact and some kinetic connectivity issues that cause him to rely solely on his dynamic hand speed to generate power. His arm limits him to left field, and he needs to rake to hit enough for that. He has the physical talent to do so, but there are some mechanical and statistical indications that he may not.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Oklahoma (WAS)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 35/50 40/40 45/50 60/60

A college shortstop and closer, Neuse was viewed by the amateur arm of the scouting body as a third base prospect with big power. He was Washington’s 2016 second rounder, then was traded the following summer as part of the Luzardo/Doolittle/Madson deal. He wrapped his 2017 season with short, statistically insignificant stints in Hi-A, Double-A, and the Arizona Fall League, but he performed at each stop, so combined there was confidence that Neuse’s early-season showing was for real despite his relatively advanced age.

He was sent right to Triple-A to start 2018 and flopped, hitting just .263/.304/.357 and striking out a concerning 32% of the time. Neuse has also thickened a bit, so while he’s still an arm-reliant fit at third, he’s trending more toward 3B/1B, and maybe right, than the SS/3B looks Washington gave him early in his career. The combination of the 2018 struggles and somewhat shaky standing on the defensive spectrum makes it imperative that Neuse have a bounce back 2019 performance. He’s a baseball rat and younger than similarly-skilled players we’ve written up so far (like Mets third baseman J.D. Davis), so we’re a little more bullish on a rebound here than we are elsewhere. If he struggles again it’s perhaps worth considering two-way duty. Neuse was up to 96 in our looks at him in college.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Missouri State (OAK)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 35/50 50/45 40/45 60/60

Eierman’s older brother Johnny was a third round pick of Tampa Bay in 2011 and his father, John, played A-ball for the Red Sox in the mid-90s. Jeremy was a solid prep prospect, but not the type who gets a big bonus and signs out of high school, so he ended up at Missouri State and had a breakout sophomore year. He was often seen by high-level decision makers during that breakout because he was playing alongside first round third baseman Jake Burger, and he had 2018 first round buzz by the end of the college postseason because scouts thought he could be a passable shortstop with all-fields power, and analytics folks liked his huge sophomore season and higher-than-you’d-expect exit velos.

Then Eierman had an inconsistent summer with Team USA and his draft spring was a bit of a letdown. He plateaued, arguably had a worse statistical season, and suddenly there were doubts about his approach and ultimate defensive home. He fell to Oakland at 70th overall last summer. Oakland has been a bit more open to non-traditional fits at shortstop recently and they clearly think that with more reps there, Eierman can stick. He may be a 45 hitter who gets to his raw power in games and passes at short, along the lines of currently projected mid-first-round 2019 draft prospect Logan Davidson at Clemson. Pro scouts think he moves to third base, at least, which makes the hit tool look a little flimsy on paper.

40 FV Prospects

10. Nick Allen, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Francis Parker HS (CA) (OAK)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 30/30 20/30 50/50 55/70 60/60

Even among a historically talented group of SoCal shortstops (Hunter Greene, Royce Lewis, Brice Turang), Allen was clearly the most gifted defender of the group and the best defensive high school infielder a lot of scouts have ever seen. He has 80 hands, above-average range, a plus arm, and an intoxicating flare and confidence not typical of humans of this stature. Allen’s size, or lack there of, is why he fell to the draft’s third round, as there was concern he would not have the requisite physicality to hit big league pitching. After a few years of pro ball, scouts think his wrists and forearms are strong enough to put viable contact in play, but probably not with enough force to truly profile as an everyday shortstop.

Sources who have seen Allen and other punchless leatherwizards think the likes of Jose Iglesias and Freddy Galvis had more thump than Allen does at the same age. That’s not to say that they don’t think Allen is a big leaguer, as everyone thinks he’s going to have a very long big league career as an elite defensive shortstop and infield utility man a la Jack Wilson or Adam Everett. That type of player is going away, but we think Allen is exceptional.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from UCLA (NYY)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/60 55/60 45/50 55/60 45/50 89-93 / 98

Kaprielian had a velo spike in pro ball (he was 89-94 at UCLA, and 94-97 after he had been with NYY for a while), then started getting hurt. Acquired by Oakland in the 2017 Sonny Gray deal, he still hasn’t thrown a single inning for an A’s affiliate. Let’s go over the injury history: Kap missed nearly all of 2016 due to a flexor-tendon strain, but his stuff was great when he returned for the 2016 Fall League. He blew out his UCL during 2017 spring training and needed Tommy John. In Eric’s looks at Kaprielian as he rehabbed back from TJ during extended spring of 2018, he was 91-94 instead of 94-97, then was shut back down with shoulder soreness. Up again during 2018 instructional league, his fastball was 88-91. He is again day-to-day with shoulder soreness as this list goes to press.

Healthy Kaprielian will touch 99 and show four impact pitches, including a plus slider and changeup. His pitch grades are nearly identical to A.J. Puk’s. Even if his stuff comes back this spring, we’ll be hesitant to move him up beyond the 45 FV tier due to the threat of injury recurrence, a specter that could cause Oakland to push him quickly if his stuff bounces back, which means he could feasibly make a big league impact this year if he could just get healthy.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Cal (OAK)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 55/60 50/55 50/60 91-94 / 96

Another exciting arm talent who cannot stay healthy, Jefferies has thrown just 20 innings in parts of three pro seasons. His injury issues date back to his college days at Cal when he had shoulder trouble that the coaching staff initially said was hamstring tightness. An excellent on-mound athlete with advanced command, Jefferies was 91-93 the summer after he signed, then 92-95 with a reshaped array of secondary offerings the following spring. He looked likely to be a quick-mover, someone who might reach Double-A in his first full season. Alas, his UCL did not cooperate and Jefferies had Tommy John a week after James Kaprielian did. Jefferies returned during 2018 extended spring training and his velocity had totally returned. He was 92-93 early in rehab outings, then 91-95 in his first official AZL game back from surgery, but it would be his last in-game outing of the summer as he was shelved for the remainder of the regular season by a setback.

Healthy Jefferies has surgical command of a low-90s heater and plus power changeup. So firm is Jefferies’ cambio that TrackMan units often mistakenly classify it as a sinker as it resides in the mid-to-upper 80s. It bottoms out late and hard, and is Jefferies’ best secondary pitch. His breaking stuff has evolved since college and at last look, he was throwing a fringy curveball that is effective because of his ability to locate it, and an average upper-80s cutter. He’s a potential fourth starter with a value-altering injury history.

13. Grant Holmes, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Conway HS (SC) (LAD)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/55 40/45 40/45 92-94 / 97

Wire-to-wire shoulder issues kept Holmes off the field for nearly all of the 2018 regular season. He was limited to fastball/changeup-only bullpens in the spring but didn’t really got going until late in the summer, when he made two starts in August and showed stuff that was slightly beneath where he was earlier in his career, with his fastball residing in the 92-94 range. Poised to pick up innings in the Arizona Fall League, Holmes once again had shoulder discomfort and was shut down for the year. The A’s still felt compelled to add him to the 40-man this offseason rather than let another team take a $100,000 flier on him in the Rule 5 and hope his fastball/slider combination stuck in their bullpen.

At his absolute best, Holmes will sit 93-96 with a plus slider and average-flashing changeup, a No. 4 or 5 starter if his change and command improve. Of this triumvirate of injured arms, Holmes is the most likely to be a reliever, but his injury history is the least lengthy. He was on the same bullpen schedule as Jesus Luzardo early in camp but still hasn’t pitched in a spring training game.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (OAK)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 30/40 20/35 55/50 45/55 55/55

A skills-over-tools prospect, Brito is the most well-rounded, technically advanced player of Oakland’s splashy 2016 international signees, and the org saw fit to send him to the New York-Penn League as an 18-year-old last summer, where Brito was three years younger than the average regular.

Brito has enough range for the middle infield and magician’s hands around the bag at second base, and while he lacks the max-effort arm strength for shortstop, he throws darts from second to first with a flick of the wrist. His ball/strike recognition is mature for his age and Brito has above-average bat control and hand-eye coordination, but the way his body develops is going to dictate much of what he’s capable of doing offensively. He needs to get stronger to be more than a utility option at best. He’s a switch-hitting middle infield fit with feel for contact, and that alone makes him one of the more interesting prospects in this system, but there’s a sizable gap between where his physicality is now and where it reasonably needs to be for him to punish big league pitching in a meaningful way.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Wake Forest (OAK)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/45 50/50 50/55 50/60 89-92 / 94

Dunshee flew under the radar at Wake Forest, opting not to sign his junior year as a 14th rounder, then going in the seventh round as a priority senior sign to Oakland in 2017. He didn’t have huge stuff then and still doesn’t, with everything consistently grading a 50 and flashing 55s at times. But the 55s are showing up with a little more regularity, the command has gone from average to plus, and he knows exactly how to use the many pitches he has. Scouts think he’s now a high probability back-end starter who outperforms his raw stuff in the minors and may continue to do so in the majors.

He should start 2019 in Triple-A and will likely have a few chances to fill in on the big league roster in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (OAK)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 40/45 70/70 55/60 70/70

A likely bench outfielder, Barrera projects to be an uncommonly toolsy one. He’s a high-end speedster with a cannon for an arm, and while he’s got a long minor league track-record of hitting, his aggressive approach might create issues against big league pitching. He often settles for sub-optimal contact, typically resulting in groundballs, and even though he takes some occasional max-effort hacks that tease the raw power, he’s not likely to hit for much of it in games. His speed enables viability in center, but he’s just okay out there, and it’s not enough to override the offensive issues and enable an everyday role. He projects as a high-end pinch runner and corner outfield defensive replacement, but there’s a chance he ends up as the larger half of a center field platoon.

17. Skye Bolt, CF
Drafted: 4th Round, 2015 from North Carolina (OAK)
Age 25.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 40/50 60/60 45/50 55/55

Bolt was notable early in his prep career not only for his meteorological name, but also for his talent. He developed tools early — average raw power, plus speed, a good swing from both sides — and had a projectable body that enabled a favorable extended forecast for those tools. But scouts didn’t always see the performance they wanted from him during his developmental stage in high school or his maturation phase early in his college career at North Carolina, even though the tools were consistently there. His BB/K ratio was fine in college, but his BABIP was very low, due in part to weaker contact and a slow first step out of the box, but also some bad luck. He’s progressed offensively in pro ball and his power has finally begun to show up in the stat line.

He’s fringy in center field and now has a textbook fourth outfielder profile. Some teams prefer his switch-hitting bat and power to Barrera’s; others would rather have Barrera’s wheels and superior feel for contact, but they have similar likely future roles.

18. Jordan Diaz, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Colombia (OAK)
Age 18.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 50/55 25/45 45/40 40/45 50/50

Diaz signed for $275,000 in the 2016 signing period and has steadily progressed to be among the best homegrown Latin prospects Oakland has, arguably with Armenteros and Brito for some observers. There’s a shot for average all-around offense, and most see Diaz as a hit-over-power prospect, evident through the high-contact numbers he showed 2018 in the AZL, while some see potential above-average power and that Diaz will prioritize over contact down the road. He’s also a good enough athlete to stick at third base at the moment, though that may change depending on how his body matures. Diaz was already pretty filled out at 16 and may outgrow third. The offense will dictate his future and there are some exciting elements already present, especially for a lower-bonus prospect who signed just two years ago.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from LSU (OAK)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 65/65 40/50 50/45 40/45 55/55

Deichmann has long been on the national scouting radar, standing out as a prep underclass third baseman in Louisiana, but his age and contact issues pushed him to LSU. He barely played as a freshman, was solid as a sophomore, then broke out as a 22-year-old junior, hitting 19 homers en route to a .996 OPS while also posting top-of-the-scale amateur exit velocities as he grew into easy plus raw power.

Since he signed as a 22-year-old and is a corner-based, power-over-hit bat, Deichmann needed to perform quickly but a broken hamate limited his 2018 and may keep him from getting to that power in games until later in 2019. He is a fine right fielder and good athlete, but is just fringy defensively, so the pressure is on for his age-24 season, with only 47 career games at full-season levels.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from South Florida (OAK)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 40/40 20/30 80/80 40/45 55/55

Merrell was a sleeper prep prospect as a 70 runner without much else in terms of present tools to offer, so he headed to South Florida, where he blossomed in his draft year. He’s now an 80 runner but still doesn’t quite have the hands or actions for the infield; he could work his way into being a passable second baseman, but we would guess center field is where he lands. His approach is solid but not great, in part because he has above average bat control and, obviously, the speed to outrun softly-hit balls. There’s enough power to hit homers to the pull side when he gets ahold of a fastball in, but not much in way of home run potential. He’s gotten a little too pull-heavy in pro ball and should use more of an all-fields approach to have a shot to develop the contact skills he needs to turn into a low-end regular.

21. Brian Howard, RHP
Drafted: 8th Round, 2017 from TCU (OAK)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 9″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 45/50 50/55 50/55 89-91 / 93

Howard was a $40,000 senior sign in the eighth round of the 2017 draft and spent half of 2018 pitching well at Double-A. His stuff is pretty generic — 89-93 with an average cutter and curveball — but Howard’s size (he’s 6-foot-9) creates a unique angle on his pitches that hitters clearly aren’t comfortable with. He also has remarkable control for a pitcher of this size. It’s fifth or sixth starter stuff, which would already be a great outcome for a high-priority senior sign, and we’re inclined to round to the top of that range based on the weirdness created by Howard’s height.

22. Miguel Romero, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Cuba (OAK)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/50 45/50 94-97 / 98

Romero experienced an unexpected velocity spike as a 24-year-old, his heater creeping into the 93-97 range after it was 92-94 the year before. He also drastically improved his slider, which he lacked feel for just after signing, and he now looks like a standard fastball/slider middle relief prospect in most outings, though remember that Romero also throws a knuckle changeup — coined ‘The Critter’ by Mat Latos, the only other guy we know who throws it — which he has de-emphasized as the slider has emerged.

23. Gus Varland, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2018 from Concordia (OAK)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 45/50 40/50 92-94 / 95

We knew nothing of Varland until he threw after the draft, and now we think he’s at least a good relief prospect with a chance to be more. Thick and physical throughout the torso and thighs, Varland has a lightning-quick arm that generates mid-90s velocity at peak. His fastball has bat-missing life, and both his breaking balls have sufficient bite to avoid barrels as well, especially when they’re well-located. He was pushed to the Midwest League fairly quickly after signing and carved up the Penn League in three and four-inning stints. It may be worth trying to start him but he could move pretty quickly as a reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Arizona (OAK)
Age 22.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

At 6-foot-1, 180, Rivas would look out of place in a team photo of big league first basemen, full of big-bodied mashers and explosive rotational athletes. He lacks prototypical first base pop but there’s a non-zero chance he makes enough contact to balance the offensive scales sufficiently to profile as a platoon 1B/LF or low-end regular. His 2018 post-draft showing in the NYPL was impressive from a bat-to-ball standpoint and he took great at-bats and made hard contact during instructional league, though that was all against pitching comparable to what he saw in college. He’s a sleeper bat we like but it’s a tough profile, one he’ll have to hit his way to.

25. Dalton Sawyer, LHP
Drafted: 9th Round, 2016 from Minnesota (OAK)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Tommy John surgery sank Sawyer’s 2018 season and he’s now a 25-year-old who has yet to pitch a meaningful slate of innings above A-ball. He also only throws in the low-90s/upper-80s, but he locates it in spots that make it difficult for hitters to punish, and his funky, low-3/4s arm slot disorients them, especially lefties. His delivery, fastball command, and ability to dump his curveball in for strikes should be enough for him to deal with lefties and Swayer’s best pitch, a late-sinking, bat-missing changeup, could be enough to keep righties at bay. The report reads like a that of fifth starter, a 40 FV. But Sawyer’s age and what might be an innings limit coming off of surgery are at odds with one another, and ideally we’d like a pitcher firmly in his mid-20s to be a big league lock for 2019, so we’ve shaded down his FV beneath his true evaluation.

26. Hogan Harris, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Louisiana Lafayette (OAK)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / L FV 35+

Harris broke onto the national scene in the summer of 2015, working 90-94 with an above average slurve but well below average command due in part to an extreme crossfire delivery. He was a version of this for a few years, then made some adjustments in college to develop more starter traits and throw strikes with the sort of stuff he showed before his senior year in high school. He’ll run it into the mid 90s at times and flashes three above average pitches, but had an oblique injury kept him from playing after signing and the stuff still waxes and wanes.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (OAK)
Age 17.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 176 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Paulino had an impressive fall instructional league during which he showed uncommon power for a teenage infield prospect. He’s somewhat physically mature and soft-bodied, but is likely to grow into at least a little more raw power as he matures and though he may not be a long-term fit at shortstop, he does have infield actions and arm strength. He won’t turn 18 until June, and will be one of the more interesting prospects on Oakland’s AZL team. For now, he simply has an intriguing combination of power and defensive profile, very little is actually in focus.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 178 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Campos was acquired from Seattle in the Ryon Healy deal before he had even set foot on American soil for an affiliated game. He posted a statistically impressive season in the DSL, but struggled in his first attempt at rookie ball in the States. Campos is very physically mature for his age, his build that of a high school fullback. He’s not a long term shortstop due to arm strength and needs to keep his frame in check to retain sufficient range for second, but the bat speed alone is worth a mention here, as is his early-career feel for the strike zone.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Westlake HS (GA) (OAK)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Butler emerged late in the 2018 draft, first getting national scouting attention in the spring at a high school in the Atlanta suburbs. He’s a prototypical projection prospect, with a great frame, solid average present power, and athletic actions. Scouts who are optimistic see the components of a 45 or 50 hit tool and 60 or more future raw power in an everyday right field profile. Since Butler is somewhat raw and hasn’t faced a lot of high level pitching, there are concerns that the hit tool never materializes enough to get to the rest of his tools.

30. Jose Mora, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (OAK)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Mora often struggled to throw strikes after he was sent from extended spring training to Vermont, and he likely fits in relief, long-term due to command. Mora has a well-balanced lower half through release, but he lacks tactile feel for release. His upper body rotates in unison like a tilt-a-whirl, and his low 3/4s arm slot generates mediocre angle on his fastball, but he throws pretty hard, in the 90-94 range, and will flash an above-average slider. He’s only ever thrown from the stretch in Eric’s looks, reinforcing our relief projection, but he may end up as a good three-pitch one.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Kyler Murray
Kyler Murray, CF

Murray is a supreme athlete who was a top-10 draft talent after having not played baseball full-time for several years. He has 70 speed, 55 raw power, and plus bat speed that played surprisingly well in games given the layoff. Last fall, the whole sport-watching world got to see how good of an athlete he is on the football field, and it now looks unlikely that Murray will have a baseball career of any consequence due to his preference for football. We had a 45 FV on Murray before the draft, and he’d be fourth or fifth on this list if he’d have stuck with baseball. But part of what we think about when we FV someone is their trade value, and because it doesn’t seem likely that he returns to baseball (and if he does his chances of success are low due, again, to the layoff), that trade value is akin to other 35 FVs at this point. Murray had a good chance to turn into a 50 FV by midseason if he had shown some progress with pitch selection in a hypothetical 2019 Hi-A campaign.

Exciting Longshot Arms
Eric Marinez, RHP
Wandisson Charles, RHP
Ismael Aquino, RHP

Marinez is a converted third baseman who threw just two innings last year but was pumping mid-90s gas with ease in those two innings (and during instructs), and he has nascent breaking ball feel. He’s a sleeper to develop into a good two-pitch reliever. Charles is a 6-foot-6, 220 pound beast with elite arm strength (95-98, touching at least 99) but zero feel for pitching. He’ll snap off the occasional plus slider in the 86-90 mph range, but he’s relatively undercooked for 22. Aquino is 20 and sits 93-96, but it’s a relief-only delivery.

Possible Role Players
Cobie Vance, UTIL
Tyler Ramirez, LF
Dairon Blanco, CF
Luke Persico, 1B/OF

Vance is an athletic multi-positional player with max-effort 55 bat speed. He made several highlight reel defensive plays in the fall. Ramirez has performed at Double-A for multiple years but we think he’s limited to left field and lacks the bat to profile there. He might hit enough to prove us wrong but we think it’s more likely he becomes a star in NPB or the KBO one day. Blanco is an 80 runner and potential fifth outfielder. Persico has good feel for the zone and some contact skills. He’s not a great fit at third base but has played there and might be a righty bench bat who can play the corner positions.

Young Latin American Talent
Danny Bautista, Jr., OF
Yerdel Vargas, SS
Kevin Richards, CF
George Bell, Jr., OF

Bautista is the most well-rounded of this group but doesn’t have any plus tools and might max out as a bench outfielder. Vargas was once a strong 40 FV on here but hasn’t developed as hoped, in part due to injury. Richards is carpaccio raw but is a 70 runner with a good frame. He might fill out and suddenly have some pop. Bell is similar to Richards but has less speed.

Pitching Inventory
Brady Feigl, RHP
Kyle Finnegan, RHP
James Naile, RHP
Norge Ruiz, RHP
Clark Cota, RHP

Feigl has solid average stuff and some feel, and is likely a long relief type but has some chance to be a backend starter. Finnegan throws in the mid-90s and has an above-average split and could be a middle reliever. Fastball and curveball spin rates are usually correlated with one another but Naile has a low-spinning, sinking heater and a 2800 rpm curveball, so who knows what going on there. He could be a middle reliever. Ruiz is a kitchen sink righty with average stuff, sometimes cruises in the high-80s, works backwards, and is generally a bit of an enigma but could be an inventory multi-inning piece. Cota has a Mark Melancon looking delivery, a fastball/curveball/changeup pupu platter repertoire, and surprising feel that could lead to him being a solid middle reliever.

System Overview

In the Moneyball days, Oakland pressed a market inefficiency in the draft, generally scooping up under-tooled college prospects with higher probabilities of success and lower upside. Over time, they’ve slowly shifted to favoring upside with their biggest amateur expenditures. They took prep righty Trevor Cahill in the second round in 2006 and signed Michael Ynoa, a 16-year-old righty, for a then-record $4.25 million bonus in 2008. One could argue that they should value upside as much as any club, as their small payroll means that a couple of stars emerging at once could open a window that causes them to push their chips in for a multi-year run, whereas one or two stars doesn’t change the Yankees’ team-building calculus as dramatically.

Their 2017 first rounder, sixth overall pick Austin Beck, was arguably the highest risk/upside proposition yet, a prep hitter with the shortest track record of any of his peers, taken at a pick where anything short of a multi-year regular is a failure. Oakland is also tied to top players in the 2019 and 2020 July 2nd classes, in Dominican shortstop Robert Puason and Dominican center fielder Pedro Pineda, respectively. Even in the universe of 15- and 16-year-olds, these two are seen as top-of-the-market talents because of their upside, with more risk and upside than other elite peers according to most scouts. Lefties A.J. Puk and Jesus Luzardo are elite prospects who are close to the big leagues right now, but also came with their own risk factors, as Puk, the sixth overall pick in 2016, was maddeningly inconsistent and appeared headed in the wrong direction as the draft approached before needing Tommy John early last season, while Luzardo is a shorter lefty with a Tommy John surgery as a high schooler. Two of the three pieces in the Sonny Gray haul — Jorge Mateo (consistency, makeup) and James Kaprielian (injuries) — were also seen as upside/risk types and haven’t returned value yet, but 2019 will go a long way to defining that trade. It has been a slow but interesting shift for the club most closely associated with one extreme of the acquisition spectrum to have moved almost as far to the other end.


Top 31 Prospects: Los Angeles Angels

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Angels Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Jo Adell 19.9 AA RF 2021 60
2 Jose Suarez 21.1 AAA LHP 2019 50
3 Brandon Marsh 21.2 A+ CF 2020 50
4 Griffin Canning 22.8 AAA RHP 2019 50
5 Jahmai Jones 21.6 AA 2B 2021 50
6 Jordyn Adams 19.4 R CF 2023 45+
7 Luis Rengifo 22.0 AAA 2B 2019 45
8 Jeremiah Jackson 18.9 R 3B 2022 45
9 Matt Thaiss 23.8 AAA 1B 2019 45
10 Jose Soriano 20.3 A RHP 2022 45
11 Chris Rodriguez 20.6 A RHP 2021 45
12 D’Shawn Knowles 18.1 R CF 2023 40+
13 Trent Deveaux 18.8 R CF 2023 40+
14 Ty Buttrey 25.9 MLB RHP 2019 40+
15 Kevin Maitan 19.0 R 3B 2022 40+
16 Patrick Sandoval 22.4 AA LHP 2021 40
17 Leonardo Rivas 21.4 A 2B 2020 40
18 Michael Hermosillo 24.1 MLB RF 2019 40
19 Livan Soto 18.7 R SS 2022 40
20 Luis Madero 21.9 A+ RHP 2020 40
21 Stiward Aquino 19.7 R RHP 2022 40
22 Aaron Hernandez 22.2 R RHP 2021 40
23 William English 18.2 R RHP/DH 2023 40
24 Jack Kruger 24.3 AA C 2020 40
25 Jake Jewell 25.8 MLB RHP 2019 40
26 Kyle Bradish 22.5 R RHP 2020 35+
27 Alexander Ramirez 16.5 R RF 2023 35+
28 Travis Herrin 23.8 A+ RHP 2021 35+
29 Jared Walsh 25.6 AAA 1B/OF/LHP 2019 35+
30 Luis Pena 23.5 AAA RHP 2019 35+
31 Daniel Procopio 23.4 AA RHP 2020 35+
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60 FV Prospects

1. Jo Adell, RF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Ballard HS (KY) (LAA)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 70/70 50/70 60/55 50/55 50/50

Adell played across three levels last year and reached Double-A at age 19. The swing and miss issues he exhibited in high school led many to assume his development might be slow, but after a month of vaporizing Low-A pitching at Burlington, he was quickly sent to the Cal League, where he’d spend most of the year. At Inland Empire, Adell continued to perform, and the Angels pushed him to Double-A Mobile in August, where he was finally forced to deal with some adversity, and struck out 31% of the time.

Several prospects of recent memory (Byron Buxton, Domonic Brown, and Brandon Wood to name a few) have possessed such titanic physical gifts that they essentially weren’t challenged until they reached the big leagues, and some people in baseball posit that it can be psychologically taxing to deal with growing pains in that bright of a spotlight, with the hopes of a franchise and its fans on one’s shoulders. Adell is that kind of physical talent. He has a rare blend of power and speed, speed that he has retained since high school even though he has added about 20 pounds. He’s now a better bet to stay in center field during his prime than he was in high school, when scouts assumed he’d slow down as he added weight. His feel for going back on balls in center is pretty good and some of the arm strength that Adell (who was once into the mid-90s on the mound) suddenly lost in high school has returned.

His breaking ball recognition and bat control will continue to be tested by upper-level pitching, and if they start to show improvement, it’s not only a sign that Adell is adjusting but that he has the capacity to do so in the future. At that point, we’re talking prime Andrew McCutchen and Grady Sizemore-type tools.

50 FV Prospects

2. Jose Suarez, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (LAA)
Age 21.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/55 50/60 45/55 92-94 / 95

Squat little pitching prospects aren’t supposed to suddenly throw three ticks harder than they did the year before, but Suarez went from sitting 89-92 to sitting 92-94, and rose three levels last year. The feel Suarez developed for his changeup and curveball while he had a 40 fastball was necessary for his survival at that time. Now, they’re out pitches after he gets ahead of hitters with this new heat. There’s some risk that this fastball backs up, as upticks in velocity are sometimes fleeting and pitchers soon return to what they’ve been for most of their careers. So long as that doesn’t happen, Suarez projects as a good fourth starter and should help the big league club this year.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Buford HS (GA) (LAA)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/60 40/50 60/55 40/50 60/60

A two-sport star in high school, Marsh’s pro baseball career was in doubt for a moment when the Angels discovered a stress fracture in his back during his physical after the draft. After the issue was resolved, Marsh took things slow for a while at the Angels complex in Tempe, limited to activities like BP while others played in actual games. The sound of the ball off his bat during those BP side sessions was very distracting. Marsh stayed in Arizona during the spring of 2017 and was much more physical than most of his rookie-level peers. Marsh had statistical success in the Pioneer League and in the Midwest League the following spring, before finally scuffling at Hi-A.

Though he has above-average raw power, Marsh’s in-game cut is more contact-oriented, geared for contact to the opposite field and back up the middle. During instructional league, Marsh was awkwardly swinging without a stride, likely not a swing change, but perhaps an exercise that forces him to clear his hips and improve his ability to pull the ball with power. There’s a non-zero chance Marsh stays in center field but it’s more likely that he moves to a corner. He has the physical ability to profile as a regular there.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from UCLA (LAA)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/50 45/55 45/55 92-96 / 97

Canning was used very heavily at UCLA and would sometimes throw in excess of 120 pitches during his starts, even as an underclassman. The Angels shelved him for the rest of the summer after they drafted him, and it paid off. Canning came out the following spring throwing harder than he had in college, his fastball sitting 94-97 for most of his starts. He held that velo throughout 2018 and reached Triple-A in his first pro season. He’s a No. 4 starter on the cusp of debut.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Wesleyan HS (GA) (LAA)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 50/50 40/45 60/60 40/45 45/45

The Angels invited Jones to big league camp last spring, but he looked overmatched and a bit lost in center field, so he was sent back to minor league camp to begin a transition to second base. His footwork and actions around the bag can be clumsy (part of why Jones, who played some infield in high school, was initially put in the outfield as a pro), but he has plenty of lateral quickness and range, his hands are fine, and he has high-end makeup, which leads clubs to believe he’ll do the work necessary to be viable there. Mostly though, Jones is good because he makes lots of hard, line drive contact and is a plus runner. After struggling to lay off of breaking balls early in 2017, he has become more patient, and his walk rate was much higher last year. Even though he didn’t hit for much power in the Cal League, the Angels promoted him to Double-A for the last two months of the season, then gave him some run in the Arizona Fall League.

Jones’ general lack of performance last year should not yet concern readers, as he went through several swing changes, with the Angels constantly tweaking how and where his hands set up. He projects as a high-contact second baseman with doubles power unless one of these tweaks unlocks more in-game pop.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Green Hope HS (NC) (LAA)
Age 19.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/50 80/80 45/60 45/50

Adams was seen as a football-first prospect until late March 2018. He’d played at a couple of showcase events in the summer of 2017 and had some raw tools, but he wasn’t yet under consideration for the top few rounds of the baseball draft. He was, however, a top 100 football recruit, set to head to North Carolina to play wide receiver, where his father was on the coaching staff. Then in March, Adams had a coming out party at the heavily-scouted NHSI tournament near his high school, fulfilling the rosiest hopes some had of him eventually putting it together on the baseball field, as multiple scouts from all 30 teams watched him against strong competition for a few days. Scouts were hesitant at first, worried they might be overreacting, but eventually came to think that Adams’ only athletic peer in recent draft history was Byron Buxton.

Adams is a true 80 runner with raw power who projects to be a 60, and who flashed body and bat control that reminded scouts of Royce Lewis. All of this excitement came with almost zero track record, and Adams didn’t face much strong competition after NHSI, meaning drafting him would be based purely on old-school scouting, as there weren’t years of video of and performance from this flourishing incarnation of Adams. Once teams became enthused enough that multiple millions of dollars were in play, it appeared clear that baseball could overtake football. Several GMs, including the Angels’ GM Billy Eppler, were in after NHSI to see Adams for themselves, and after Adell and Adams were their top pick in consecutive years, rival executives now view this risk/upside kind of prospect as Los Angeles’ type. That trend appears to be more the result of opportunistic good fortune than a deliberate strategy, since there’s an argument to be made that Austin Beck (who went to Oakland sixth overall in 2017) had less upside and a similar performance record to Adams; if the industry had simply seen Adams play in an NHSI-style setting for a couple more weeks, he could have been a top five pick candidate, just like Royce Lewis or Byron Buxton were after a strong summer of performance. This is all to say that the sky is the limit for Adams, and if he performs well in Low-A in 2019, he’ll shoot up this list.

45 FV Prospects

7. Luis Rengifo, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 45/45 40/45 55/55 45/50 50/50

The Mariners traded Rengifo to Tampa Bay in an August 2017 waiver deal, and he only played in 23 games as a Rays farmhand before he was sent to Anaheim as the PTBNL in the C.J. Cron swap. He had a breakout 2018, traversing three levels to the tune of a .299/.399/.451 line, while tallying as many walks as strikeouts, 50 extra-base hits, and 41 steals. So judicious is Rengifo’s eye for the plate that if he were cloned 15 times and each clone forced to be an umpire, there might be a lot less talk of electronic strike zones. He identifies balls and strikes early in flight, and often relaxes before balls have even entered the catcher’s mitt. There’s a chance that Rengifo’s lack of power (he has more from the right side) limits the way his eye for the zone plays in the big leagues, since pitchers will be more likely to attack him without fear of him doing damage on his own. Most of his doubles come by slashing balls down either baseline, or when he turns gappers into extra bases because of his speed. We think there’s enough bat to retain most of the on-base ability Rengifo has shown so far and that, combined with his multi-positional versatility, could yield super-utility value.

Though he spent all of last year playing either second base or shortstop, Rengifo also has experience in both outfield corners and at third base. The Angels added Rengifo to the 40-man this offseason and while they’re well-stocked on the infield (Simmons, La Stella, Fletcher, Cozart), they’re rather thin in the outfield, and very right-handed. As such, Rengifo’s first opportunity could come as an injury replacement out there, or he may fall into a Chone Figginsy utility role. Eventually though, he may end up as the regular second baseman.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from St. Luke’s Episcopal HS (AL) (LAA)
Age 18.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 50/55 20/50 55/55 40/50 55/55

Progressive clubs want to draft toolsy prep players, as that is the most common demographic among current All-Stars, but they like to have data to back up their scouting reports. Collecting detailed stats from summer showcase events, or even spring games when prep hitters face pro-quality pitching, is one way to pinpoint how advanced a prospect is beyond a pure scouting report, and is something almost no clubs did systematically until the last half dozen years or so. Jackson is a perfect example of the limitations of this practice.

He stood out on the showcase circuit with an infielder’s footwork and actions (though his hands were inconsistent) and potentially above-average offense. But Jackson’s performance was generally below average in this setting and he struck out a lot, so he was shifted into the fourth to fifth round area that often sends this sort of player to college. In the spring, Jackson was going off against poor competition in South Alabama and we were hesitant to shift his grade on that basis until we were told that he got glasses to correct some vision issues that had contributed to his summer disappointment. Now, his spring performance could still end up meaning little, but there was a shot he was a new prospect, and we never got a pre-draft opportunity to see him against good pitching. With that optimism in mind, we ranked him 31st in the 2018 draft class but the Angels were able to get him at 57th overall, as many clubs now run their draft off of models that lean heavily on summer performance when there’s bulk and Jackson was at almost every event.

Jackson hit seven homers with above average production across the board in 43 pro games after signing, and it’s looking like he may have been underrated by a purely numbers-based approach to the draft. We see a potential 50 or 55 on every tool and at least a third base fit in pro ball, if not a chance to play middle infield, which translates to a strong regular.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Virginia (LAA)
Age 23.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 197 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 50/50 45/50 30/30 45/50 50/50

Thaiss is one for whom a 2018 swing change is more relevant because a lack of in-game power was the primary barrier between him and the offensive output approaching that which typically profiles at first base. A college catcher, Thaiss walked more than twice as much as he struck out as a junior at Virginia. Though almost nobody thought he’d be able to catch in pro ball, he was viewed as a safe, fast-moving draft prospect, albeit one with a limited ceiling due to defensive limitations. Thaiss was exactly as advertised for the first two years of his pro career, and reached Double-A during his first full pro season though, as predicted, he hit for very little power, including a paltry .399 SLG% in the offensive paradise that is the Cal League.

In 2018, Thaiss added a more exaggerated leg kick and began lifting the ball more. A 45% ground ball rate at Double-A in 2017 turned into a 31% rate at Mobile the following year. He was eventually promoted to Triple-A Salt Lake and ended up with more 2018 homers (16) than he had had in his previous two years combined. Will the change be enough? It’s going to be close. Thaiss posted a 102 wRC+ in 85 games as a 23-year-old at Triple-A; the big league average at first base last year was 105. We have him projected as a low-end regular there, which might make him a viable alternative to Justin Bour and Albert Pujols fairly soon.

10. Jose Soriano, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 168 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 30/50 40/50 92-96 / 98

Soriano struggled to harness his newfound velocity in 2018. The year before, he was a skinny 18-year-old sitting just 87-92. When he arrived in the spring of 2018, he had added sculpted muscle mass to a prototypical frame, and his fastball was humming in at 94-97 early during spring outings. After some time in extended spring training, Soriano spent the end of last summer in Low-A as a 19-year-old, and had issues with walks. Though his delivery is devoid of violence, he struggles with release consistency and has scattershot fastball control as a result. Soriano’s feel for locating his terrific curveball is often superior to his fastball command, and while this approach is becoming more acceptable in the majors, ideally he’d refine the latter.

It’s odd to look at Soriano’s numbers and argue that he took a step forward last year, but he accomplished a third of the things we hoped he’d develop — more velocity, better command, and a better changeup or some other third offering — before turning 20. If either of the last two components fails to progress, Soriano will end up in the bullpen. If they both do, he’ll be a mid-rotation starter.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Monsignor Pace HS (FL) (LAA)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 55/55 40/50 50/55 40/50 93-96 / 97

A stress reaction in his back cost Rodriguez all of 2018 and his return to action has been slow; last we were updated before publication, he was still limited to fastball-only bullpens and flat ground sessions. Prior to Rodriguez’s shutdown, he had experienced a velo spike (93-97, up from 91-94 the year before) and lowered his arm slot. Both of his breaking balls were excellent, but his changeup had regressed a bit compared to his first year (or at least, he lacked feel for it the last time Eric saw him). The injury adds fuel to the speculative fire that Rodriguez’s violent delivery will eventually limit him to the bullpen. It didn’t prohibit him from having starter control, but scouts were concerned about injury. Now, there has been one. If health eventually moves Rodriguez to the bullpen, he has high-leverage stuff. If not, and his changeup returns, he could be a No. 3 or 4 starter.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Bahamas (LAA)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 45/50 20/45 70/70 45/55 45/50

Knowles was still just 16 when he came stateside for his first pro instructional league. He was 17 for the entirety of his first pro season, and one of the few bright spots on an underperforming AZL Angels team. A sizable chunk of Knowles’ AZL power output was BABIP-driven (his speed is especially meaningful against rookie-level defenses), but despite his measureables, he does have some pop thanks to his explosiveness and ability to rotate, enough that there’s little concern about him lacking big league physicality. His footspeed enables projection in center field and while he’s had early-career issues with strikeouts, he’s not one to expand the zone and instead has the bat-control issues that are typical of early-career switch hitters. Though his bat-to-ball future is cloudy, Knowles’ slashing, doubles power as a teen combined with the likelihood he can play center field give him a shot to be an everyday player if he develops as a hitter. If not, he’d be a pretty toolsy fourth outfielder.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Bahamas (LAA)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 45/55 30/50 70/70 40/55 50/55

After an exciting showing during minor league spring training, Deveaux struggled throughout the summer as he made swing change after swing change after swing change. It makes much more sense to tinker and find the right swing sooner rather than later, but Deveaux hit just .199 as he was asked to bring his side work onto the field during the summer. He had no fewer than four different cuts during 2018, and at times seemed so out of whack that pro scouts in Arizona began to actively steer clear of Tempe Diablo to avoid falling out of love with a player they were so enamored with during the spring. That player took your breath away when he’d hit his stride going from first to third, looked like he might be a black hole defender in center field because of his range, and was going to have power once the swing was refined.

If evaluating purely on physical ability, Deveaux belongs up near Jordyn Adams and Jeremiah Jackson in this system, but his 2018 was a bit of a red flag and he’s probably going to be a long-term developmental project.

14. Ty Buttrey, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2012 from Providence HS (NC) (BOS)
Age 25.9 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 55/55 60/60 45/45 94-98 / 101

Somewhat surprisingly, our pitch classifications indicate Buttrey threw his low-spin breaking ball more often than his obviously nasty changeup in a sizable big league sample last year. Buttrey’s weirdo breaking ball, which can be hard to distinguish visually from his changeup, is also effective and may give him a pitch mix sufficient to enable him to close. His stuff exploded after the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen in 2016; they eventually traded him in the 2018 Ian Kinsler deal. He’ll likely be a significant part of the Angels’ bullpen this season and may have too tight a grip on late-inning duties to relinquish them to Keynan Middleton once the latter returns from Tommy John.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (ATL)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/45 55/60 30/45 40/40 40/50 60/65

Maitan was one of the most celebrated international amateur prospects in a decade and was even written up as a 14-year-old on this site when, upon asking international scouts in the fall of 2014 for the best players in the 2015 international class, we were told that Maitan, a 2016-eligible player, was better than all of them. In retrospect that looks a little silly, as the 2015 class included Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Cristian Pache, and Andres Gimenez, but that opinion was the consensus amongst many top evaluators; those five superior prospects all received lower bonuses than Maitan for a reason.

Maitan signed with Atlanta as the clear top prospect in his class, and the clear top prospect to emerge in many years. Then things took a turn for him as a pro. Maitan added some natural strength and bulk soon after signing (which many scouts anticipated, projecting him to a corner), then started adding some bad weight, lost his swing mechanics, and started tinkering. Things snowballed from there, ending in a disappointing debut season with Atlanta. After that season, the Braves international scandal hit, and Maitan became a free agent. He kept his original $4.25 million bonus (widely reported to have been topped by multiple clubs late in the process, though he and his family chose to honor their word to Atlanta) and hit the open market, where he received $2.2 million amid some scouts’ suggestions that he wasn’t even the best of the Braves’ prospects to be cut loose.

The same issues continued with Los Angeles in 2018, and Maitan had another disappointing season, with a worrisome physique and an evolving swing. The raw tools that originally got scouts interested — raw power you can project to a 70, a 65-grade arm, infield hands, feel to hit — still appear to be in there and Angels sources indicate Maitan spent the offseason getting in better shape, a process they anticipated would be slow from the onset, hopefully foreshadowing a breakout year. The organization is excited about what could happen in 2019, with Maitan as part of an exciting Low-A Burlington club that should include him, Jeremiah Jackson, and Livan Soto in the infield and Jordyn Adams, D’Shawn Knowles, and Trent Deveaux in the outfield. We have Maitan here on pedigree, as pro socuts outside the org who had no context for their eval barely considered him a prospect last year.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Mission Viejo HS (CA) (HOU)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 55/60 40/50 40/45 88-92 / 94

An 11th rounder in 2015, Houston signed Sandoval away from a USC commitment with a $900,000 bonus. Before the Angels acquired him from the Astros for Martin Maldonado, Sandoval struck out 97 hitters in 88 innings split between Low- and Hi-A while also reducing his walk rate (4.3%) to half of what it had been the previous year (8.5%). After the trade, his walk rate regressed to his career norm, but he continued missing bats and struck out 35% of opposing hitters.

Sandoval’s fastball sits 88-92 and will top out around 94. He can really spin a 12-6 curveball, one that’s above average when he is getting on top of it. Effectively, Sandoval has an almost perfectly vertical arm slot, but the way he gets there is somewhat odd, and there’s some skepticism among scouts as to the sustainability of last year’s uptick in strike-throwing. But his current delivery enables him to effectively work up and down with his fastball and curveball in sequence, so nobody suggests he change it. There’s enough of a changeup here for continued development in a rotation and if everything clicks, Sandoval will be a No. 4 or 5 starter. If not, he’s a lefty with a good breaking ball and is a fine bullpen candidate, which is a pretty good return for a backup catching rental.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (LAA)
Age 21.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 35/40 20/30 70/70 45/50 50/50

It’s very possible that Rivas’s elite feel for the strike zone won’t translate to upper-level play. He owns a 16% career walk rate, but Rivas and his childlike, Lilliputian frame lacks even a modicum of over-the-fence power, and advanced pitching may choose to attack him rather than nibble and let the speedy Rivas reach without putting the ball in play. Even if his walk rate comes down, Rivas does enough other stuff to contribute to a big league roster. He won’t hit homers, but he stings high-quality line drive contact to all-fields and can slash doubles down the third base line. He has sufficient speed and range for the middle infield, and has experience at every position but first base and catcher, though he hasn’t played the outfield since 2015. Rivas’ most realistic path to everyday production involves him retaining something close to his current walk rate, but he’s more likely to become a valuable utility man who can play all over the field, and is a fairly high-probability prospect in that regard.

Drafted: 28th Round, 2013 from Ottawa HS (IL) (LAA)
Age 24.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 40/45 65/65 50/55 50/50

It took a $100,000 bonus to sign Hermosillo away from a football scholarship to Illinois. Understandably raw when he entered pro ball (what with two-sports and a cold-weather background), it took Hermosillo three years of adjustments before he finally experienced a statistical breakout in 2016. Since then, he has continued to make mechanical tweaks to reshape his skillset, and was rewarded with a brief major league debut in 2018.

Once in possession of ugly bat control that enabled him to put lots of balls in play but not with any real impact, Hermosillo’s most recent swing adjustment has him trading some of that contact for power. As Hermosillo’s leg kick grew bigger and slower, his ground ball rate shrunk. A 45% roller ratio in 2017 became 31% in 2018, and Hermosillo set a career-high in homers (12) in the friendly confines of the PCL. Though he didn’t perform during a 30-game big league look, Hermosillo’s athleticism and ability to make adjustments bode well for his future. His baseball instincts aren’t great, but he has some pop that he’s started to get to, he can fly, and he may get lots of playing time due to the Angels’ fairly thin outfield situation. Realistically, he projects as a good bench outfielder, but he has several late-bloomer traits and may continue to develop into a low-end regular if he falls into regular big league reps and gets sufficient at-bats.

19. Livan Soto, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (ATL)
Age 18.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 35/40 20/30 55/55 50/55 50/50

Soto was part of the Braves’ 2016 pool-busting haul of players who later became free agents due to the sanctions levied against Atlanta. Soto got a $1 million bonus the first time around, then another $850,000 from Los Angeles, signing along with fellow former-Brave and Venezuelan Kevin Maitan. It’s a cliche in scouting to call a player a ‘Venezuelan-style shortstop,’ but Soto fits that to a T: smaller, without big tools, but with an advanced feel to play, and a gritty, high-effort style. He had about 30-grade raw power when he signed, and his exit velos were topping out in the mid-90s in the GCL for Atlanta, but he’s now hitting a quarter of his balls in play in the 90s and looks like he’ll be able to avoid being so weak that pitchers can knock the bat out of his hands. Soto is a roughly average runner with a roughly average arm, but both tools play up due to his instincts and strong internal clock, so he’s a potential above average shortstop. He also has advanced feel to hit, with above average bat control and a self-aware approach at the plate. There’s a road to a Jose Iglesias-type regular here, but it’s more likely Soto lands in the utility range, with maybe a season or two where he’s starting quality.

20. Luis Madero, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 45/50 50/55 50/55 89-94 / 96

In possession of one of the looser, more aqueous deliveries in the minors, Madero experienced a velocity spike in 2018 and ended up on the Angels 40-man in November. Instead of 87-92, Madero’s fastball resided in the 90-94 range throughout 2018, and he retained his trademark advanced command of four pitches. The best of those pitches is his curveball, which flashes big depth and snap, and which he sometimes decelerates his arm to baby into the strike zone, something big league hitters will pick up on. Further changeup develop will be important for Madero as his low arm slot enables lefty hitters to see the ball out of his hand quite early. A better change will help keep them honest against his heater. Still lithe and skinny for his age, there’s a chance Madero grows into some velo as he continues to fill out. He profiles as a fifth starter and may be up at some point this year, though the Angels’ many veteran pitching additions make it less likely.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 50/60 40/50 87-93 / 96

Aquino missed all of 2018 due to a February Tommy John from which he’ll likely return sometime during extended spring training. Tall and projectable, Aquino was already touching 96 as an 18-year-old before he blew out his UCL. He’s athletic for his size but perhaps not exceptionally athletic in a vacuum, his forearms appear shorter than is typical for someone his size, and his stride home is very abbreviated. His velocity and changeup quality were both well ahead of what is typical for a pitcher this age before Aquino got hurt, and he has one of the more intriguing ceilings in the system if those things return after surgery.

22. Aaron Hernandez, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Texas A&M Corpus Christi (LAA)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/50 45/55 40/50 35/45 91-95 / 97

One of the least experienced and more polarizing college pitchers available in the 2018 draft, Hernandez has an electric, four-pitch mix and several developmental hurdles ahead of him. At a skinny 6-foot-1, there are scouts who doubt he can start based solely on his frame, though Hernandez held mid-90s velocity deep into games as a junior at Corpus Christi. If amateur scouts are to be believed, any of the following aspects of Hernandez’s current profile could change: his stride direction, his arm slot, his breaking ball usage (he has two that bleed together), and the movement profile of his fastball.

Hernandez was academically ineligible as a sophomore and only started 19 games in three years of college, so there’s at least a reason he’s behind his peers from a developmental standpoint. He has unteachable arm speed and feel for spin and even if he just ends up as a big league reliever, something that seems pretty reasonable given his talent, it would be a strong outcome for a third round pick. Like Aquino, Hernandez may move up this list quickly with refinement, but we’d like to see it fairly soon given his age.

23. William English, RHP/DH
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Detroit Western Int’l HS (MI) (LAA)
Age 18.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/55 20/50 55/50 40/50 70/70
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 40/50 45/55 30/50 87-91 / 93

Many teams considered English to be one of, if not the best on-mound athletes among high schoolers in the 2018 draft, but many of them also thought he was sushi raw as both a hurler and an outfielder, and that he would end up at the University of Tennessee. A $700,000 bonus brought him to Tempe for a summer free of pitching in games, an approach the Angels have taken with several recent draftees. English did hit, though. While he struggled to perform on paper, he has a pro-quality power and speed combination that enabled him to play center field in high school. He was drafted and will be developed as a two-way player, likely pitching once a week while playing in the outfield once or twice a week and DH’ing the rest of the time as a way to manage fatigue. He arrived for camp having added about 25 pounds of muscle and is one of the more interesting prospects in baseball, let alone in this system, because he’s just a very athletic, untouched mass of clay for Angels player development to sculpt.

24. Jack Kruger, C
Drafted: 20th Round, 2016 from Mississippi State (LAA)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 50/50 30/35 45/40 50/55 50/50

Kruger is a high-probability backup catching prospect with more speed and athleticism than is typical for the position. Though he has a power-hitter’s leg kick, his bat head drags into the zone, causing him to push a lot of contact the other way, and this, combined with his fringy bat speed, limits his power output. He has good barrel control, though, and is a solid-average receiver and ball-blocker with an average arm. He’s going to stay back there, and he’s uncommonly nimble and lean for a catcher, so he should retain those skills deep into his career. He reached Double-A last year and is on pace to debut in 2020.

25. Jake Jewell, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Northeast Oklahoma JC (OK) (LAA)
Age 25.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 40/40 40/45 94-97 / 98

After yo-yoing back and forth between the bullpen and rotation since college, Jewell was finally ‘penned in 2018 and had a two-inning sip of coffee with the Halos last June before he fractured his right fibula during a play at the plate. He would need season-ending surgery. Jewell’s command has long foreshadowed an eventual permanent move to the bullpen, but he has the stuff to accrue big league outs. He can alter the shape of his mid-90s fastball to sink or cut, has a fine mid-80s curveball, and a power changeup that averages 90mph. He didn’t throw his hard cutter/slider during his short appearances with the Angels last year, but we’re unsure if the pitch has actually be scrapped. It’s an unusually deep repertoire for a reliever, probably one better suited for inducing ground balls than strikeouts, but is possibly enough for Jewell to go for four or more outs at a time.

35+ FV Prospects

26. Kyle Bradish, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from New Mexico State (LAA)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/55 50/55 55/60 40/50 40/45 90-94 / 96

It’s exciting to consider how Bradish’s stuff might play in the bullpen, as his max-effort delivery and the way it detracts from his command will likely prevent him from starting for long in pro ball. His arm action has gorgeous efficiency and it, plus Bradish’s full-body thrust towards the plate, helped him generate the occasional mid-90s fastball early in his college starts, before he’d settle in the low-90s and upper-80s in the later innings. His breaking ball has bat-missing vertical action and is hard for hitters to differentiate out of Bradish’s hand, in part because his delivery causes the ball to suddenly appear out from behind his head, which some hitters struggle to adjust to. Most of these traits would seem to play best in short stints, and we have Bradish projected as a good middle reliever, though if his fastball ticks up in single-inning outings he could be a high-leverage option.

27. Alexander Ramirez, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age 16.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

So young is Ramirez that he had to wait almost two months after the July 2 signing day to turn 16 and become eligible to put pen to paper on his pro contract, which included a $1 million bonus. He’s a typical, frame-based projection outfield prospect at a lean, high-waisted, broad-shouldered 6-foot-2. His upright swing is currently suited for high-ball contact but, based on the Angels propensity for enacting swing changes, that will likely change pretty quickly. As he grows into his body and better incorporates his lower half into his swing, he could have serious in-game power at maturity. Likely a long-term developmental project, Ramirez may not be stateside for actual games until the 2020 AZL.

28. Travis Herrin, RHP
Drafted: 18th Round, 2015 from Wabash Valley JC (IL) (LAA)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 50/55 50/50 40/50 40/50 90-93 / 96

Herrin made a few late-season Tommy John rehab appearances last August and September, and his stuff had not only returned, but improved. He has a starter’s mix led by two quality breaking balls, his fastball will creep into the mid-90s, and his changeup has some armside fade. It’s No. 4 or 5 starter stuff, a pitch mix that belongs ahead of Luis Madero on this list. But Herrin turns 24 in April, has yet to pitch above A-ball, and only showed this quality stuff in short, 20 or 30-pitch outings. He’s a candidate to be pushed quickly if he continues to throw like this, though he may be on an innings limit this year, his first full slate back from injury. We like him as a sleeper breakout prospect in this system.

29. Jared Walsh, 1B/OF/LHP
Drafted: 39th Round, 2015 from Georgia (LAA)
Age 25.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 55/55 45/50 45/45 55/60 60/60
Fastball Curveball Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 45/50 89-92 / 93

Walsh’s primary responsibilities vacillated between the mound and the batter’s box while he was in college. He did more pitching as a freshman and junior, more hitting as a sophomore and senior. Now it appears he may do a little bit of both in the big leagues, as last year he stepped on a pro mound for the first time, touching 93 with his fastball, and showing an average curveball on occasion. He also had a breakout offensive season, though 13 of his 29 home runs came in the Cal League, which, especially at age 24, should cause some skepticism as to how much it reflects true talent. Walsh does have some power and he lifts the baseball consistently, so while he doesn’t have a hit/power combination fit for profiling at any of the defensive spots he’s capable of playing, he could run into some bombs in a pinch-hitting role. He’s also a better runner and first base defender than is typical for his position and may contribute in those areas, as well. Walsh has an interesting, multi-faceted skillset and could be used as a Swiss Army Knife bench piece, if a bit of a blunt one, who allows flexibility on other parts of the roster.

30. Luis Pena, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/50 55/60 50/55 40/40 88-93 / 94

The Angels continued Peña’s development as a starter last year even though his wildness will likely relegate him to the bullpen eventually. His low-90s fastball plays up because his gargantuan stride creates big extension and two extra ticks of perceived velo. So extreme is Peña’s leap off the mound that it appears to detract from his command because it’s so hard to harness. His slider and changeup both flash plus, and he arbuably has better feel for locating either of those than his fastball. He has No. 4 or 5 starter stuff, but issues with fastball location make him too inefficient to start. He reached Triple-A last year but struggled, and was passed over in the Rule 5; he’s a candidate to bounce back.

31. Daniel Procopio, RHP
Drafted: 10th Round, 2017 from Niagara (LAA)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Procopio was a solid senior sign in the 10th round in 2017 as a Friday starter for Niagara. In that role, he had a TrackMan-friendly rising fastball that sat 90-93 and hit 95 mph occasionally, and he relied heavily on an above average-flashing breaking ball, fringy command, and average control to post numbers against weaker competition. After signing, the Angels put him in the bullpen and his velocity immediately ticked up in shorter stints, working 94-96 and hitting 99 mph. His control and command got a bit worse, and he hasn’t quite struck the balance in his delivery and approach between newfound power stuff and control, but he could find himself on the shortlist for big league bullpen contention if and when he does.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Current Pitching Depth
Jeremy Beasley, RHP
Miguel Almonte, RHP
Brett Hanewich, RHP
Williams Jerez, LHP

All of these guys are between 23 and 26 years old, and could contribute to the big club in some capacity this year or next. Beasley has the best long-term prognosis as a potential fifth starter. His splitter is plus, the rest of his stuff average. Almonte debuted way back in 2015 but injuries have kept him list-eligible. He has a plus curveball and fastball velo but the injuries and command issues are worrisome, and he was unclaimed after being DFA’d fairly recently. Hanewich is a one-pitch guy but it’s a great pitch. His fastball is 97-99 with plus-plus extension but his delivery is erratic and his secondaries are inconsistent, though his change plays well off the heater when he locates it competitively. Jerez is a mid-90s lefty with a good splitter and 40 control, and might be a reliever if the command improves.

Some Younger Sleepers
Robinson Pina, RHP
Hector Yan, LHP
Julio De La Cruz, INF
Sadrac Franco, RHP

All of these prospects are about 19 years old and currently in the lower levels of the minors. Pina sits 91-94 with 7-foot-2 of extension, and has an above-average slider. He may end up as a late-inning arm but looks more like a reliever who’ll take a few years. Yan is a lefty with presently average velo and an arm action that promises more. He has feel for a curveball that could be plus at peak but he’s probably also reliever due to a lack of changeup feel. De La Cruz isn’t a good defensive infielder but he has 55 bat speed and pull-side power; he’s a 50 runner with a 55 arm. He may end up in right field, but if the glove improves, he’ll be quite interesting. Franco will flash a plus curveball and he also sits about 90-94, but he’s less projectable than the typical 19-year-old due to a smaller frame.

Old Friends and Long Shots
Michael Santos, RHP
Mayky Perez, RHP
Adrian Almeida, LHP
Oliver Ortega, LHP
Adrian De Horta, RHP

Santos was a favorite of ours when he was a Giants AZL arm. He was part of Tampa’s return for Matt Moore but had a shoulder injury and was released. When healthy, he was 91-94 with a bevy of average secondaries and a chance one of the breaking balls would be above at peak. Perez was a hard-throwing, big-bodied relief type who was released by prospect-laden San Diego. Almeida was a minor league Rule 5 pick a few years ago. He sits 93-96 and has a plus curveball but 30 control. Ortega and De Horta both throw hard, peaking in the 95-96 range. All of these arms are age 22 to 24.

System Overview

Once clearly the worst system in baseball, this group is now pretty exciting, if somewhat monochromatic. There are some clear trends at play, the first being that the club’s draft strategy has taken on a toolsier, more athletic vibe in recent years, with several high picks spent on splashy high schoolers like Adell, Adams, and English. The club has also targeted versatile defenders with good plate discipline on the pro side, yielding Rengio and Soto, while doing everything it can to hoard pitching depth behind what has been a snake-bitten big league staff, even at the expense of some interesting young arms like Elvin Rodriguez, who would have fairly prominent placement in the 40 FV tier on this list had he not be dealt for Ian Kinsler (though Buttrey would rank higher). The Angels clearly have a type or two now, but they’re types we like.

The player development arm of the org is one of the more aggressive groups in the league, and is unabashed about mechanical tinkering. Trent Deveaux’s multitude of swings look bad because he has struggled so mightily, but there have been more prospects improved by the changes than there have been players who have gone backwards. Taylor Ward graduated off the list, but he made positive alterations before his call-up, and the changes made by Walsh, Thaiss, and Hermosillo have all been clear improvements, while the jury is still out on Jahmai Jones’ tweaks. Brandon Marsh may show a dramatic shift this year as the gap between his BP raw power and in-game approach to contact is quite, quite vast.

Another trend on this list: lots of pitchers throwing harder. Canning throws harder now than he did in college, Suarez and Madero had velo spikes last year, and Soriano’s uptick, while predictable because of his build, came sooner than expected. The scouting staff has given what appears to be a good player dev group lots of malleable athletes to work with and, so far, results have been positive even though most of the guys we’re excited about haven’t done anything in the big leagues yet.


Top 34 Prospects: Toronto Blue Jays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Toronto Blue Jays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Blue Jays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 19.9 AAA 3B 2019 70
2 Bo Bichette 20.9 AA SS 2020 60
3 Danny Jansen 23.8 MLB C 2019 50
4 Nate Pearson 22.5 A+ RHP 2020 50
5 Jordan Groshans 19.2 R 3B 2022 45+
6 Sean Reid-Foley 23.4 MLB RHP 2019 45
7 Kevin Smith 22.6 A+ SS 2020 45
8 Adam Kloffenstein 18.5 R RHP 2022 45
9 Eric Pardinho 18.1 R RHP 2021 45
10 Trent Thornton 25.4 AAA RHP 2019 45
11 Billy McKinney 24.5 MLB LF 2019 40+
12 Cavan Biggio 23.8 AA 2B 2020 40
13 T.J. Zeuch 23.5 AA RHP 2019 40
14 Hector Perez 22.7 AA RHP 2020 40
15 Leonardo Jimenez 17.7 R SS 2023 40
16 Orelvis Martinez 17.2 R SS 2023 40
17 Rowdy Tellez 23.9 MLB 1B 2019 40
18 Gabriel Moreno 19.0 R C 2023 40
19 Griffin Conine 21.6 A- RF 2020 40
20 Miguel Hiraldo 18.4 R 3B 2022 40
21 Chavez Young 21.6 A CF 2020 40
22 Reese McGuire 23.9 MLB C 2018 40
23 Anthony Alford 24.5 MLB CF 2018 40
24 Yennsy Diaz 22.2 A+ RHP 2020 40
25 Samad Taylor 20.6 A 2B 2022 40
26 Patrick Murphy 23.7 AA RHP 2019 35+
27 Alejandro Kirk 20.3 R C 2022 35+
28 Kevin Vicuna 21.1 A+ SS 2021 35+
29 Elvis Luciano 19.0 R RHP 2019 35+
30 Emanuel Vizcaino 19.5 R RHP 2023 35+
31 Hagen Danner 20.4 R C 2023 35+
32 Otto Lopez 20.4 A- SS 2022 35+
33 Cal Stevenson 22.4 R CF 2021 35+
34 Alejandro Melean 18.3 R RHP 2023 35+
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70 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 70
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
65/70 80/80 65/70 40/30 45/45 60/60

The best prospect in baseball, Guerrero hit a superhuman .381/.437/.636 across 95 games (mostly at Double and Triple-A) despite being about six years younger than the other athletes in the Eastern and International Leagues. The ball doesn’t just sound different off of his bat; when he really lays into one, you can feel a thump inside your chest, as if someone set off a firework at home plate. It’s explosive, beautiful, and paradoxically violent considering that Vladimir is so childlike in his shape and demeanor. He plays with a vivacious enthusiasm, totally unashamed of his own at times bizarre mannerisms, as if the way he feels when playing elite pro baseball is how most of us did with a wiffle ball in our hands during adolescence. (Late during Fall League, he was cranky and petulant with umpires.)

But his is not a childlike stature. His listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds is a farce, and on the few occasions that Guerrero and Peter Alonso (who is listed at 6-foot-3, 245) were standing near one another during Fall League, Vlad was clearly the larger human being. While he reaches an almost shocking top speed on the bases given his size, Guerrero does have lateral mobility issues that impact his range at third base. He is very likely to move to first base or DH at some point in his early 20s, but leaving him at third, even if he’s not very good there, might help motivate him to keep his weight in check for as long as possible, something that could be more important than the quality of his play in the field since Vlad had knee issues during the 2018 season.

Really though, it matters very little where he ends up playing. This is the best hitter in the minors and the stick will play anywhere. For at least two years now people around baseball, including the late Mel Didier, swore that Guerrero would be ready for and competing in the majors before he turned 20. Toronto’s desire to maintain control of his talent for as long as possible scuttled that notion late last summer when they chose not to promote him, and Vlad will turn 20 in March before this season even starts. He should be up early this year, and immediately become one of the game’s most exciting, productive hitters. He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Lakewood HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 20.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 60/60 40/55 45/45 45/50 60/60

There’s some contextual disappointment surrounding Bichette’s 2018 statline because he didn’t recreate his video game numbers from the year before, but he still netted an incredible 61 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old at Double-A. We remain skeptical of his long term viability at shortstop, where he continues to see most of his reps, but his arm is plus and teams are growing increasingly willing to put players with limited lateral quickness at short if it means shoehorning a special offensive talent into the position, and Bichette is one.

Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter where he ends up playing defense because his bat is likely to profile. He has scintillating bat speed, and Bichette’s hand-eye coordination and bat control are an effective foil for the garage band noisiness of his swing, which hasn’t negatively impacted his ability to make contact in pro ball. Bichette ditches his leg kick with two strikes, something we’re not certain is all that helpful based on visual evidence. Ideally, Bichette will start lifting the ball more often (he has a league-average ground ball rate right now) and turn some of these doubles into homers, but it’s hard to justify making a change when he has been wildly successful so far. Status quo Bo is still a doubles machine who probably stays on the infield, and is a likely All-Star.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 16th Round, 2013 from West HS (WI) (TOR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 40/45 30/30 45/50 40/40

A 2017 Jansen breakout coincided with good health and a pair of prescription lenses. He walked more than he struck out across three minor league levels, and rose to Triple-A and into our overall top 100. He had a similarly strong 2018, which included a Futures Game invite, a .390 OBP at Triple-A, and then a strong 30-game big league stint in August and September, all reinforcing that Jansen’s 2017 breakout was legitimate. A solid if unspectacular defender, Jansen’s pop times were depressed during his big league cameo, hovering between 2.05 and 2.10, both below average for a catcher. But he’s an average receiver and ball-blocker, and is a perfectly acceptable defensive catcher without a disqualifying shortcoming.

Where Jansen shines is in the batter’s box. His hands work in a tight loop, giving Jansen the capacity to catch velocity and still lift the baseball, and he’s strong enough to muscle out balls to his pull-side, though to this point his approach has yielded more doubles than homers. He is a pull-only plodder and he’ll likely always be a low BABIP guy, and it’s possible major league pitchers will find ways to attack him in ways that limit his power output, but he’s going to make a lot of contact and reach base, which, at catcher, could make him an All-Star.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Central Florida JC (FL) (TOR)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 245 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/80 60/65 50/55 45/55 35/45 95-100 / 104

We still know very little about Pearson compared to most 22-year-old pitching prospects. He popped up seemingly out of nowhere as a sophomore at a lesser Florida junior college but quickly entered the first round discussion when JuCo ball kicked off in January of 2017. As the draft approached, Pearson was showing better secondary stuff in games and bumping 100 mph in bullpen sessions for scouts. He forced his way up draft boards even though teams had little history with him, and some were skeptical of the new velocity or concerned it would lead to injury.

Pearson made seven short but dominant appearances in the Northwest League during the summer and was poised to begin 2018 at Hi-A Dunedin (an aggressive assignment), but he suffered an intercostal strain and began the season on the DL. In his final extended spring rehab start, he was sitting 94-96 and touching 98 with the fastball. He finally toed a Florida State League rubber that week and lasted 1.2 innings before a comebacker struck his wrist and forearm and fractured his ulna. The injury ended his regular season after just five outs.

After rest and some rehab during instructs, Pearson went to Arizona for the Fall League. His stuff was electric there, his fastball always sitting 95-99 and cresting 100 mph often. He threw a 104 mph fastball and a 95 mph slider during the Fall Stars game, and he was able to dump his upper-70s curveball in for strikes throughout his six-week tenure, though he threw no changeups. Pearson was also horribly wild at times. It’s fair to conclude that rust was to blame for his occasional wildness but because the pro side of the industry has seen so little of Pearson, it’s impossible to know for sure.

There’s a strong possibility that he just ends up in the bullpen, but if he does and he breathes one-inning fire like he did during Fall Stars, he basically has Aroldis Chapman’s stuff (though perhaps not the same extension or approach angle). Provided he stays healthy, Pearson’s future is bright, albeit unclear. He’s likely to be handled with care for a while in order to keep him healthy and manage his workload after what was essentially a lost 2018, but given the wide variance and top shelf stuff, there is still frontline starter potential.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Magnolia HS (TX) (TOR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/65 20/55 55/50 45/50 60/60

Groshans immediately stood out to scouts on the showcase circuit, showing a Josh Donaldson starter kit with similar swing mechanics, a plus raw power projection, a plus arm, and a third base defensive fit. He essentially held serve on that first impression and went 12th overall to the Jays out of the same Texas high school as the Jays’ second round pick, Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans isn’t quite the same level athlete as Donaldson, and there are contact concerns with an active swing like that, but there are some bat-to-ball skills and plenty of mistake power he can already tap into, as shown in a loud debut in the GCL. Many of the pro scouts who saw Groshans weren’t fans and saw below average tools in their looks when he fatigued late in the pro season, but the things to watch for here are the plate discipline and contact skills, because the position and power aren’t really up for debate right now.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Sandalwood HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/50 45/50 45/45 91-96 / 97

Reid-Foley has been a similar pitcher from his junior year of high school all the way to his fifth year of pro ball in 2018. His arm action and delivery are a little stiff, and his command isn’t quite enough to be a traditional starter, but he’s stayed healthy and flashes two plus pitches with knowledge of the right way to sequence them, if not always execute them flawlessly. The Jays will continue to run him out there as a starter — he made 31 starts and threw 163 innings last season across three levels — but most agree this is more of a multi-inning or high-leverage reliever, as opposed to a traditional starter. The pure stuff would fit any role on a staff, but the quality of the strikes (his command) is the issue, rather than the amount of strikes (his control), which was evident from his 5.13 ERA in his major league debut in 2018.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from Maryland (TOR)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/55 40/50 50/50 40/45 55/55

Smith was noticed early in his career at Maryland for showing early round tools as a defender who can stay in the middle infield with above average raw power and some feel to hit. The feel to hit came into question in his draft year, as his swing got a little too pull/power oriented, helping him slip to the fourth round. The Jays rave about Smith’s makeup and preparation, and how he spearheaded the adjustments to his swing to have a shorter path to the ball and increase his contact ability. He now has a flatter-planed swing, and one scout compared his offense to Jordy Mercer, while another thinks Smith is a 50 hitter with 50 game power. Most scouts think he’s fringy at shortstop despite a plus arm, and would shift him to second base long-term for the best fit, where he’s got a chance to be above average. An 85 to 100 wRC+ with solid average defense at second base is worth 2-something WAR, so while it isn’t sexy, there’s some performance here, real changes to explain it, and a pretty good chance to be a 50 or 55 FV big leaguer.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Magnolia HS (TX) (TOR)
Age 18.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 40/50 35/50 89-94 / 96

Kloffenstein was the Blue Jays third pick in the 2018 draft from the same high school as Groshans, but it appears the Jays had the 12th and 88th overall picks evaluated much closer in talent than the picks themselves would indicate. Groshans got slightly below-slot bonus (17th highest in the draft) while Kloffenstein was well above-slot at $2.45 million (29th highest bonus). We ranked them 28th (Groshans) and 42nd (Kloffenstein) in our pre-draft rankings. Kloffenstein is a prototypical projection Texas arm, with a lanky frame, loose arm action, occasional mid-90s velo, and an above average breaking ball; some scouts saw parallels to Michael Kopech, projecting Kloffenstein to throw 100 mph in the next couple years. He didn’t pitch much in pro ball or instructs as Toronto was managing his innings and getting him used to the pro schedule. Kloffenstein’s main objectives will be to get more innings, stay healthy, and keep progressing, as he only showed mid-90s velocity and starter feel at times in the spring. Toronto’s bet is a bit speculative, based on projection more than performance.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Brazil (TOR)
Age 18.1 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 50/55 45/50 45/55 90-94 / 96

Pardinho was one of the more celebrated 16-year-old pitchers to sign in recent memory, drawing a $1.4 million bonus in 2017, which was behind only Shohei Ohtani among his pitching peers in the class. Pardinho grew up in Brazil, which has a large Japanese population and he has some Japanese heritage; his windup clearly points to a Japanese influence.

The issue here is that Pardinho is listed at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, and isn’t much bigger than that right now, though he has a sturdy build. 18-year-old pitchers need to have big velocity, or projection to add velocity, to be top prospects since they generally start losing velocity in their mid-20s; that innate velocity, or projection for it, offers some margin for error. There are exceptions to this benchmark, like Zack Greinke, cases where a pitcher has been a pitchability type with above average stuff from his teenage days all the way into a big league career, but those instances are very rare. Pardinho will sit 92-95 and hit 96 mph early in outing and settle around 90-93 later. His curveball flashed above average as an amateur and he mixed in a slider that lagged behind, but those two pitches are both average to above now. They’re different pitches but still can run together at times, common for a younger pitcher. Parindho’s changeup is his fourth pitch now and it’s around average, but he separated himself with above average command projection, which helped him post gaudy numbers in his pro debut in the Appalachian League at 17.

Pardinho is undoubtedly advanced and projects as a No. 3 or 4 starter if things go well, but he was essentially pitching like a college senior in a league where a college senior can dominate and then never get to Double-A. Pardinho is a prospect because he’s advanced enough to pitch like a 22-year-old when he’s 17 years old. We’d just like to see either his stuff improve — or hold that velocity for the whole game — or see performance against more advanced hitters before we shoot him up the list like he’s the next Greinke.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from North Carolina (HOU)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 97

Thornton spent 2018 at Triple-A Fresno before he was effectively showcased in the Arizona Fall League. He has bat-missing, big league stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in multi-inning Fall League appearances, and sitting comfortably in the 95-96 range when he was asked to air it out for a single inning. Thornton also has elite breaking ball spin rates. His 12-6 curveball spins in excess of 3,000 rpm and his firm, upper-80s slider/cutter often approaches that mark, which is rare for a breaking ball that hard. He also has a unique delivery that disorients hitters, during which his arm wraps behind his lower back. His arm action is ugly but, short of a 7-day DL stint this year after he was hit with a comebacker, Thornton hasn’t been hurt as a pro.

His usage has been atypical, however. His starts were often spaced out by seven or eight days in 2018, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to have that kind of recovery time between turns on a big league pitching staff. If asked to throw every fifth day, his stuff may not be as nasty as it was this year. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter but may also be deployed in a multi-inning relief role.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Plano West HS (TX) (NYY)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 55/55 50/45 45/50 40/40

McKinney’s batted ball profile shifted dramatically after the Yankees acquired him from the Cubs in the Aroldis Chapman deal. Since high school, he had been a feel-for-contact corner guy with batting practice power that didn’t manifest in games, but the Yankees got his ground ball rate down from 42% to 30% and he started to mash before they flipped him to Toronto for JA Happ. He hit for power in a prolonged big league look but struggled badly against breaking stuff, something that may be an issue moving forward. McKinney doesn’t have a whole lot of offensive wiggle room because he’s so limited on defense, but the hit/power combo suggests he is a Seth Smith-like corner platoon bat who’s ready right now.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Notre Dame (TOR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 55/55 45/50 45/40 40/45 50/50

Biggio opted to attend Notre Dame rather than sign with the Phillies out of high school, and he had two bad years there before turning in a solid junior season. He didn’t hit for power in pro ball until he reached Double-A in 2018, where Biggio exploded for 26 home runs, saw his walk rate climb all the way to 18%, and swiped 20 bags.

Nothing about Biggio’s swing is markedly different than it was in college. He’s tightened the circle made by his ritualistic, pre-swing bat swirl, and his hands load a little bit lower now than they used to, but mostly Biggio just has good feel for low-ball contact despite the upright nature of his swing, and has plus bat speed.

There’s skepticism surrounding Biggio’s ability to play second base, so the Blue Jays began expanding his defensive horizons last year with time at first and third base, as well as both outfield corners, which is where Biggio saw the most action in the Arizona Fall League. The uppercut nature of Biggio’s swing is going to lead to some strikeouts and his aggregate offensive profile looks much less promising in an outfield corner than it would at second base. If he could indeed play all of those positions, he’d be a very interesting Swiss Army knife with power, but realistically he profiles as a second-division regular or platoon outfielder.

13. T.J. Zeuch, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Pittsburgh (TOR)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 7″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 40/45 50/55 45/50 55/60 90-93 / 94

Zeuch doesn’t have dominant stuff but he’s a keen sequencer with a firm grasp on how best to deploy his pitches to efficiently tally outs. He mostly pitches to contact with a low-90s sinker that has very steep downhill plane thanks to Zeuch’s height and fairly upright delivery. It’s helped him generate ground ball rates near 60% as a pro. Both of his breaking balls survive because Zeuch locates them. He’ll get ahead of hitters with his curveball and keep his slider just off the plate away from righties. Offspeed development remains key as Zeuch enters 2019 as a non-roster invitee. He may be a candidate for a true splitter, or modified version of it, rather than a straight changeup if the Jays want to try to turn him into Doug Fister, with whom Zeuch shares several other traits. Barring something unforeseen, like a new grip giving Zeuch a dominant secondary pitch, he projects as a backend innings eater.

14. Hector Perez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Splitter Command Sits/Tops
60/70 50/60 45/50 40/55 30/40 92-96 / 98

Perez was part of the package Houston sent to Toronto in the unscrupulous Roberto Osuna deal. His stuff was down just a tad last year, with his fastball more often 93-95 than 94-97 based on our reports from the previous year. But Perez still has nasty stuff and managed to strike out 133 hitters in 115 innings, mostly at Double-A. His stiff, long arm action significantly inhibits Perez’s ability to throw strikes and he unanimously projects into a bullpen. But because he has three plus pitches (and we have the fastball projected as a 70 out of the bullpen), he could be a dominant late or multi-inning arm. He’s one of many new faces on Toronto’s 40-man and could debut in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Panama (TOR)
Age 17.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/40 55/50 45/55 50/55

Jimenez signed for $825,000 in 2017 out of Panama but is often compared to Venezuelan shortstops (like Vicuna, No. 28 on this list) for his advanced, non-flashy feel for the game. Vicuna is still the best defender in the system but Jimenez isn’t far behind him, with one scout grading his hands as a 70. We’re more bullish on Jimenez than Vicuna because there’s better rhythm, swing mechanics, and strength to his offensive game, so there’s a better chance for viable performance. Jimenez also gets high marks for his intelligence and makeup; he’s already fluent in English as a 17-year-old.

16. Orelvis Martinez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 17.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 50/60 20/50 45/40 30/45 50/55

Martinez was one of the most explosive talents in the 2018 July 2nd class, getting the second highest bonus at $3.5 million, behind only 22-year-old Marlins center fielder Victor Victor Mesa. Martinez is currently ranked behind a number of players in his class because we still aren’t sure how his contact skills will project. He has big bat speed and projects for at least 60 raw power, along with sticking somewhere in the infield. We aren’t sure how his body will develop, and thus the raw power and the position where he’ll land are open questions. More importantly, he takes a high-effort, torqued-up cut at the ball, and the Jays like that he has eye-hand contact, but there’s still a ways to go to turn this intriguing ball of clay into a more finished product.

Drafted: 30th Round, 2013 from Elk Grove HS (CA) (TOR)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 60/60 55/55 40/30 40/45 30/30

Tellez had a successful second tour of Triple-A in 2018, and reached Toronto in September just weeks after his mother, who had been fighting brain cancer for a while, passed away. His first six big league hits were doubles, a record, and then opposing pitchers began to make adjustments, and Tellez cooled, often chasing stuff out of the zone. He’s vulnerable to velocity up and was uncharacteristically tempted by soft stuff beneath the zone. He crushes mistakes and has natural low-ball ability, as well as feel for lacing hard gap liners to left field if fastballs away from him catch too much of the plate. It’s tough to hit enough to profile at 1B/DH, and we think Tellez is more of a platoon or second division regular. He should get an opportunity to be just that if something happens to Kendrys Morales and/or Justin Smoak.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 30/45 45/40 40/50 55/55

Moreno converted from shortstop to catching right around when he signed out of Venezuela, and while he’s just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he’s taken to the change and scouts think he can stick behind the plate. He’s twitchy and has plus bat speed with good bat control but can get over-aggressive at times and needs to tighten his zone. Moreno’s high-energy approach endears him to scouts and teammates, and there’s a reasonable chance he’s a backup, with some possibility these tools can turn into a starter down the road.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Duke (TOR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/65 30/55 45/40 45/50 60/60

Conine is the son of former Marlins great Jeff Conine and Griffin looked like a sure first round pick in 2018 after a dominating summer on the Cape. Thing haven’t gone so well for him since then. Conine bulked up and got a bit stiffer, had a brutal start to the 2018 season, but closed well, finding a better approach to make more consistent contact. The Jays scooped him up as another legacy prospect in the system, but he was popped for PED’s (ritalinic acid, a stimulant) in November and will serve a 50-game suspension to start 2019. At his best, Conine has 60 or 65-grade raw power from the left side, a plus arm that helps him fit in right field, and good enough contact skills for a 45 or 50-grade bat to allow him to get to his power. He can get too uphill, aggressive, and pull-happy at times, so there’s some concern, beyond the suspension, about how much of his Cape performance will show up in pro ball.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 18.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 30/50 50/40 40/45 55/55

Dominican Summer League stats are largely meaningless, but every year there is a prospect or two whose statline is so utterly dominant that it provokes immediate re-evaluation. Hiraldo, who was hitting .366/.429/.560 when July began, was one of those DSL hitters in 2018. When prompted about Hiraldo, pro scouts with coverage in the DSL reiterated what was said about him when he was an amateur. He was physically mature for his age, stocky, and strong, far more muscular than most of his DSL peers. He has plus bat speed, average power right now, and tracks pitches well and has some barrel control, so while Hirlado’s physical maturity should cause one to discount his statistical performance, he is a good offensive prospect.

There’s not much room left on his frame for good weight, and he has fairly limited power projection left. Scouts already anticipate a move off of shortstop to either second or third base. Hiraldo’s offensive talent could be sufficient to profile every day at either spot, just probably not as a star and probably not for several years considering the passive developmental track the Jays took with him last year when he probably should have been in the GCL for more than a 10-game August jaunt.

21. Chavez Young, CF
Drafted: 39th Round, 2016 from Faith Baptist HS (FL) (TOR)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 40/45 55/55 45/50 60/60

It seems like every year a hitter or two comes out of nowhere and causes quite a ruckus in Lansing. This year it was Young, who hit .285/.363/.445 with 50 extra-base hits and 44 steals for the Lugnuts. The travel ball circuit is not kind to economically disadvantaged families, and part of the reason Young was under-scouted as an amateur, as he told our own David Laurila, was because his family could not afford to attend heavily scouted showcases.

Another reason he may have slid toward the end of the draft was because he was constantly moving around. He was under the international scouting umbrella while he was young and living in the Bahamas, then spent his early high school years in Florida before relocating to Georgia for his senior season. It’s likely that three separate scouts in each org were responsible for scouting and gauging Young’s signability.

The Blue Jays got a deal done for $200,000 and Young has been a strong early-career performer. Pro scouts see him as a bit of a tweener but think there’s a chance he might be an everyday center fielder if absolutely everything comes together. He’s not a typical center field sprinter (our sources all have either a 50 or 55 on his speed) but he’s instinctive, and fine there for now. If Young does move to a corner, his hit/power combination is on the fringe of profiling. A switch-hitter, Young has power from the right side of the plate but he’s strikeout prone due to a lack of bat control. As a lefty, he has a gap-to-gap approach and good bat control, but not typical over-the-fence thump.

It’s possible that, even with middling offensive ability, Young could be such an excellent corner defender that he plays everyday anyway, and his makeup is universally lauded, so we like his chances of reaching and staying in the majors as some kind of role player.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Kentwood HS (WA) (PIT)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 45/45 20/35 30/30 50/60 60/60

The Blue Jays have a terrific young catching tandem in Danny Jansen and McGuire, who we project to play a glove-centric second fiddle to Jansen’s bat for the next half decade. McGuire has been lauded for his defense since high school, and he remains excellent back there, and has a plus arm. He has struggled in the past to lift the ball, and while he showed some movement in that regard last year, it’s unlikely that McGuire hits enough to profile as an everyday catcher.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2012 from Petal HS (MS) (TOR)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 60/60 40/45 70/70 50/55 40/40

Alford had a tumultuous and eventful amateur athletic career. He starred as a dual threat high school quarterback in Mississippi, and continued playing football in college even after the Jays, who at the time were able to offer Alford a now defunct two-sport deal structured to incentivize him to eventually commit to baseball, drafted and signed him. His college football career and home life were both tumultuous, as Southern Miss went winless during Alford’s first year under center, and several members of his family had legal troubles. Alford eventually transferred to Ole Miss, where he was asked to play safety, but that didn’t last long and he soon committed full time to baseball.

He’s dealt with constant injury as a pro and has issues with quality of contact when healthy. Though he’s a remarkable athlete with huge raw power and speed, we’re bearish on Alford’s ability to hit breaking stuff and do enough damage to play everyday. He projects as a bench outfielder. Because Alford has only been totally devoted to baseball since 2015, there’s a chance some of what currently impairs his on-field production can be remedied, but he has to stay on the field to develop that stuff.

24. Yennsy Diaz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/45 40/45 92-95 / 97

A boiler plate middle relief prospect, Diaz was added to the 40-man this offseason and may debut in 2019. Though he has been developed as a starter to this point, command and repertoire depth limitations have scouts universally projecting Diaz to the bullpen. He has a slightly cross-bodied delivery, and he muscles up and slings in mid-90s fastballs and tilting, two-planed breakers. His changeup is firm, but continued reps in a rotation should help improve his feel for it and better prepare him to deal with left-handed hitters in the big leagues.

25. Samad Taylor, 2B
Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from Corona HS (CA) (CLE)
Age 20.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 40/45 20/40 60/60 40/55 45/45

Taylor signed with Cleveland for $125,000 in the 10th round in 2016 out of a southern California high school. The report then was an explosive, quick second baseman with some tools who could use some refinement. That’s still mostly the report, but Taylor’s 2018 full season debut was excellent, hitting above league average in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old most of the year, despite a .270 BABIP. Some players naturally have a lower BABIP, but Taylor is a player who should have a higher-than-normal BABIP given his plus speed (44 stolen bases in 2018), solid plate discipline (11% BB to 19% K), and surprising game power for his size and age (nine home runs and 32 doubles).

Taylor can still make a boneheaded play defensively, use improper footwork at the keystone, or try to do too much at the plate, but the tools are here for a low-end everyday second baseman if things continue progressing.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2013 from Hamilton HS (AZ) (TOR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Murphy has persevered through multiple injuries and surgeries (Tommy John and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, just to name two) and finally had a full, healthy season in 2018, and was added to Toronto’s 40-man in November. His fastball is very hard and Murphy throws a lot of strikes, typically in the upper half of the zone. At times his heater has natural cut, he’ll flash an occasional plus curveball, and his changeup got much better throughout 2018. His injury history and violent, somewhat awkward overhand delivery are each of concern to teams, which generally have him projected in a bullpen role.

There’s sufficient strike-throwing here for Murphy to continue developing as a starter, and he could pitch at the back of a rotation, especially if his changeup keeps improving.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Mexico (TOR)
Age 20.3 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The first thing anyone talks about when Kirk’s name comes up is his weight. He’s built exactly like former A’s catcher Jeremy Brown, and one source body comp’d him to Chris Farley noting that, like Farley, Kirk is deceptively agile for his size.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 140 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Vicuna (pronounced like Acuña) signed for $350,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela and fits the archetype of the Venezuelan shortstop, with excellent feel for the game and instincts to get the most out of his tools. He was considered frail-looking at signing and has put on some strength since then, but still needs to add more to have a chance to make an impact offensively.

Vicuna is a plus runner who has above average hands, range, and arm strength, so even just hitting for consistent contact with enough power to be respected would be enough to make him a solid big leaguer. The Jays are encouraged by his 60 PA in the Venezuelan Winter League, where Vicuna had eight walks to 13 strikeouts, but also had just one extra base hit. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the system and, depending on which scout you ask, his makeup grades anywhere from 60 to 80, so we think he’s worth inclusion on the list.

29. Elvis Luciano, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Luciano was acquired by Kansas City in the trade that sent Jon Jay to Arizona, then selected by Toronto in the Rule 5 draft. He was the youngest player picked in the Rule 5 by a significant margin and if he makes the Jays’ Opening Day roster, he’ll be the first player born this century to play in the big leagues.

Though he’ll touch 96, Luciano’s fastball sits in the 90-94 range, and he has scattershot command of it, especially late in starts. His frame is less projectable than the typical teenager’s, so there may not be much more velo coming as he ages, but he has plenty of present arm strength and an above-average breaking ball, so there’s a chance he makes the Jays’ roster in a relief role. He has No. 4 starter upside if his below-average changeup and command progress, but Rule 5 selections who stick often put developmental priorities on the back burner and instead lean on what they’re already good at in order to succeed right now.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 19.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Vizcainno is a fairly standard teenage projection arm, perhaps slightly raw for his age from a strike-throwing perspective, though that’s understandable given the mantis-like length of his limbs. He’s an above-average athlete and there’s a good chance his release consistency becomes refined with more experience, though he may always have limited pinpoint command because his trebuchet-like overhand arm action makes it hard to work east and west. That’s not to say it’s a bad delivery. Vizcaino’s arm action is very efficient, and his vertical slot gives his promising curveball an awful lot of depth. It’s easy to envision Vizcaino working up and down with his fastball and curveball in concert with one another in a relief role, even if he never develops average control.

There are lots of promising components here, they’re just a little less polished than is ideal for a prospect who’ll be 20 this year.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Huntington Beach HS (CA) (TOR)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Danner burst onto the scouting scene after his sophomore year of high school, showing low-90s stuff and a three pitch mix with the look of a future high pick as a pitcher. He maintained his above average stuff throughout most of his prep career, but the more scouts saw him behind the plate, the more they liked him long-term as a catching prospect.

Eventually, the Jays took Danner in the second round of the 2017 draft as a catcher, which marks the first time Danner hasn’t been splitting his focus on the diamond. He’s only played 66 pro games due to some minor injuries, so we haven’t seen as much as we’d like with him being relatively new to this position. He has above average to plus arm strength and raw power projection, and we think he can stick behind the plate, but the hit tool may take a little time, which is the main concern going forward.

32. Otto Lopez, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

A dual Dominican/Canadian citizen, Lopez was born in the Dominican Republic but his family moved to Montreal when he was 12, and he plays on Team Canada during international competition. That’s not to be confused with the Vancouver Canadians, the Blue Jays’ Northwest League affiliate for which Lopez also played last year, and played well. He walked more than he struck out, led the team in OBP, and saw action at every defensive position but catcher and first base as the club’s youngest member. A plus runner and above-average athlete, that kind of super utility role is Lopez’s realistic future projection. He has some feel for contact but will probably max out with 40 raw power, if that, so he’s unlikely to make strong enough contact to hit for as high an average as his pure bat-to-ball skills might indicate. Even if typical big league physicality never materializes, Lopez should be a versatile bench piece.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2018 from Arizona (TOR)
Age 22.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Stevenson was a 10th round senior sign out of Arizona, an afterthought until he went to the Appy League and hit a raucous .359/.494/.518 during the last two months of the season. Rookie-ball pitching is worse than what Stevenson faced in the Pac-12 and that performance should be considered with that fact in mind, but those numbers are exceptional and four corners scouts thought Stevenson, whose 2018 numbers at Arizona were worse than the previous year, was hurt during the spring. It’s possible pre-draft reports on Stevenson — plus runner, above-average bat, no clear defensive position, great makeup — were impacted by injury, and that Stevenson’s true talent is closer to how he performed during the summer, but the physical tools are indicative of a bench outfielder. Lansing is probably not going to clarify the situation next year because it’s so hitter-friendly, and we may have to wait until Stevenson gets a taste of Hi-A to know if the Jays have really found something.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (TOR)
Age 18.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

The Blue Jays felt Melean was advanced enough for the GCL at age 17, and while he was a little more wild than is ideal, he is rather advanced for his age and has a chance to be a backend starter. Though Melean is less physically projectable than the typical teen, his fastball already resides in the 90-94 range and he has an above-average, upper-70s curveball. He has feel for locating a changeup but it lacks movement right now, so this, as well as fastball command, would seem to be logical developmental priorities moving forward.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Corner Bats
Ryan Noda, 1B
Chad Spanberger, 1B
Mc Gregory Contreras, RF
Josh Palacios, RF
Demi Orimoloye, RF

Noda is extremely selective and has walked in over 20% of his plate appearances as a pro, but he’s a stiff, below-average athlete and needs to keep performing like this for the industry to view him as more than a statistical curiosity. Spanberger has 70 raw power and went nuts at hitter-friendly Asheville against pitching worse than what he saw in college before he was traded to Toronto. He cooled in the FSL afterward. Contreras has plus bat speed and power projection, a typical, high-risk right field profile, though he’s not a good defender yet. Palacios is also a corner guy with feel to hit but needs to find a way to tap into more power. Orimoloye was born in Nigeria and moved to Canada as a toddler. He was acquired from Milwaukee for Curtis Granderson just before the waiver deadline. Demi has plus raw but lacks feel to hit.

Polished Depth Arms
Thomas Pannone, LHP
Julian Merryweather, RHP
Josh Winckowski, RHP
Sean Wymer, RHP
Justin Maese, RHP
Zach Logue, LHP
Zach Jackson, RHP
Jackson McClelland, RHP
Jon Harris, RHP

Pannone has excellent changeup command but his limited velo and curveball likely cap his ceiling in the sixth starter area. Then with Cleveland, Merryweather was striking out a batter per inning at Double- and Triple-A in 2017 before he blew out late in the year and missed all of 2018. He’ll likely be back this year and could be a four-pitch reliever who relies heavily on velo. Winckowski may end up in a middle relief role. He sits 90-94 and has an above-average slider. Wymer was the club’s 2018 fourth rounder out of TCU. His stuff plays better out of the bullpen, where he’s 92-93 with command of a 55 curveball. Maese was a popup high schooler in tough-to-scout El Paso whose stuff has plateaued in the 45/50 area. Logue has 60 control of 45 stuff. Jackson has one of the more bizarre deliveries in baseball, and both he and McLelland have the stuff to be 40 FV relievers, but both are also very wild. Harris’ spin rates are strong but his fastball velocity has backed up since college.

Bench Types
Logan Warmoth, SS
Addison Barger, 3B
Forrest Wall, LF
Riley Adams, C
Max Pentecost, C/1B

After Warmoth’s pre-draft reports were divisive in 2017, when he was Toronto’s first rounder, they were consistently down throughout 2018. He may end up with an average bat and fringe power but he’s not likely to stay at short based on pro looks. He’s clearly been passed by several shortstops in the system. Barger has a plus-plus arm and played all over the infield last year but may only end up with 40 hit and power. We were too high on Wall last year. He can still run but maybe not well enough to play center field, which means he’s a contact-only left fielder. Adams is a physical beast with a plus arm and big raw power, but he swings and misses a lot due to lever length and his ceiling is that of a toolsy backup. Pentecost, like Wall, has never been quite the same since surgery and he’s a contact-only bat at a position that demands more.

System Overview

It’s hard to talk about this system and franchise without spending a good bit of time on Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. The previous regime not only landed a generational talent but one with ties to Canada, especially notable because of MLB’s clear marketing shortcomings. Vlad Jr. developed better than anyone expected and is one of the best prospects of recent memory.

The organization has hoarded players we consider 45s and 50s who couldn’t crack quality rosters in an attempt to prime the big league club with role players for the arrival of young stars like Vlad, Bichette, and Jansen. Not all of them will work out, but the list of players like this that the Blue Jays have acquired (Brandon Drury, Teoscar Hernandez, Trent Thornton, Randall Grichuk, David Paulino, Billy McKinney) is so long that enough of them should, enabling Toronto to build a competitive club around this wave of young talent.

This is almost the inverse of how most competitive sports teams are built, as franchise players are often the first ones in place and pieces are fit in around them. There still needs to be more pitching, though. Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez both had down years and this farm system isn’t exactly packed with arms. They can improve in free agency but competitive staffs almost always need a lot of depth to fight through injuries, so we still expect Toronto to be in asset collection mode for another year or two before they feel comfortable pushing their chips in.


Top 38 Prospects: New York Yankees

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the New York Yankees. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Yankees Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Estevan Florial 21.2 A+ CF 2020 50
2 Jonathan Loaisiga 24.2 MLB RHP 2018 45+
3 Deivi Garcia 19.7 AA RHP 2021 45+
4 Antonio Cabello 18.3 R CF 2023 45+
5 Roansy Contreras 19.2 A RHP 2022 45
6 Albert Abreu 23.3 AA RHP 2019 45
7 Everson Pereira 17.8 R CF 2023 45
8 Anthony Seigler 19.6 R C 2022 45
9 Luis Gil 20.7 A- RHP 2021 45
10 Clarke Schmidt 22.9 A- RHP 2020 45
11 Luis Medina 19.7 R RHP 2022 45
12 Kevin Alcantara 16.6 None CF 2024 40+
13 Trevor Stephan 23.2 AA RHP 2019 40+
14 Osiel Rodriguez 17.2 None RHP 2022 40+
15 Nick Nelson 23.2 AA RHP 2020 40
16 Raimfer Salinas 18.1 R CF 2023 40
17 Anthony Garcia 18.4 R RF 2023 40
18 Alexander Vargas 17.3 None SS 2024 40
19 Josh Breaux 21.3 A- C 2021 40
20 Ryder Green 18.7 R RF 2023 40
21 Josh Stowers 21.9 A- CF 2021 40
22 Oswaldo Cabrera 19.9 A 2B 2021 40
23 Antonio Gomez 17.2 None C 2024 40
24 Ezequiel Duran 19.7 R 2B 2022 40
25 Matt Sauer 20.0 A- RHP 2021 40
26 Thairo Estrada 22.9 AAA SS 2019 40
27 Garrett Whitlock 22.6 AA RHP 2020 40
28 Pablo Olivares 21.0 A+ CF 2021 40
29 Michael King 23.7 AAA RHP 2019 40
30 Yoendrys Gomez 19.3 R RHP 2022 40
31 Juan Then 19.0 R RHP 2022 40
32 Frank German 21.4 A- RHP 2021 40
33 Freicer Perez 22.9 A+ RHP 2021 40
34 Oswald Peraza 18.6 R SS 2022 35+
35 Roberto Chirinos 18.4 R SS 2022 35+
36 Ronny Rojas 17.4 R 2B 2022 35+
37 Angel Rojas 18.2 R SS 2023 35+
38 Dermis Garcia 21.1 A 1B 2021 35+
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50 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Haiti (NYY)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 60/60 30/55 60/60 45/50 80/80

Even those casually exposed to public facing prospect analysis become familiar with a few key concepts and player archetypes, and an early lesson often addresses the volatility of players like Florial, who have several elite tools that will lead to star-level performance if they hit enough, but who also carry significant risk that they will strike out too much to matter at all. Of course, the reason each individual player has strikeout issues can vary. Some hitters have feckless, over-aggressive approaches, while others can’t recognize breaking balls or have a problem with lever length and get tied up inside. Florial’s issues — his strikeout rate has fallen between 27% and 32% each of the last three years — appear to stem from his bat path and limited bat control. Stiff wrists cause his bat head to drag into the zone, which can cause him to be tardy on fastballs at the letters and, more frequently, flail at soft stuff dipping down and away from him. Yoan Moncada has similar issues that have yet to be remedied.

Florial does enough other stuff that, even if the strike outs remain an issue, he could still be a valuable big leaguer. He crushes anything down and in, has sufficient plate coverage to hit fastballs middle away, and has enough power to do damage to the opposite field. He also has good ball/strike recognition so, again like Moncada, there should be power, walks, and up-the-middle defense. We think Florial is likely to be an exciting but flawed everyday player, though it’s not audacious to think his relative youth (he was a 20-year-old at Hi-A in 2018) and inexperience (he also missed a year of reps due to a suspension for bad paperwork) leave more room for growth than we anticipate.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Nicaragua (NYY)
Age 24.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/65 50/55 50/55 93-97 / 98

If evaluating purely on stuff, Loaisiga belongs in the overall Top 100 pretty easily. He holds 94-97 for six innings, his upper-80s slider with vertical break is reminiscent of early-career Brad Lidge, and he has somehow found changeup feel and command despite few career in-game reps. But while Loaisiga has mid-rotation, big league stuff, his career has been beset by constant, often severe, injury. Since entering pro ball in 2013, Loaisiga has only thrown about 200 career innings due to repeated injury and rehab, and his 68 innings pitched for the DSL Giants during his first pro campaign remain his single-season high. He missed all of 2014 with injury, then was released, and out of pro baseball for all of 2015. The Yankees unearthed him during the 2016 23U World Championships in Venezuela and after a frantic late-night call from scout Ricardo Finol, signed Loaisiga immediately. Just two innings into his first 2016 start, Loaisiga’s velocity dropped into the mid-80s and he left the mound pointing at his elbow. He rehabbed quickly enough that he was able to make 11 short starts with Staten Island the following year.

Because Loaisiga signed in 2012, he would have been Rule 5 eligible in the winter of 2017. The Yankees added him to the 40-man even though he had never completed a healthy start in full-season ball. In 2018, Loaisiga ascended quickly and showed flashes of brilliance against big league hitters, but he also made two more trips to the disabled list, including a late-season stint due to shoulder inflammation. Shoulder issues have sidelined Loaisiga pretty frequently during his career, and while he may have some years where he peaks in the 3-4 WAR range, we also think he’ll have some years where he barely pitches, or that he may just move to the bullpen.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 19.7 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 163 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 60/65 40/50 45/50 91-95 / 96

At this time last year, Garcia was a 40 FV and an interesting prospect to monitor. He was a slightly-built, shorter righty with a knockout fastball/curveball combination, who was moved very quickly as Garcia saw 2017 action in the DSL, GCL, and Appy league levels at age 18. We were eager to see if he could continue to perform like that in full-season ball as a 19-year-old and boy, did he. Garcia had an xFIP under 3.00 at each of his three stops last year: eight Low-A starts, five in Hi-A (one of which is the linked video), and one in Double-A. Garcia’s changeup and command both ended up playing better than we expected, with his changeup regularly flashing average to above — confirming he has starter’s stuff — and his command sufficient to deal with A-ball hitters. The concerns about his durability tied to his stature are still there. He’s 5-foot-10 and anywhere from 163 to 175 pounds. He threw 74.0 innings last year and even scouts who love Garcia concede he may not be a 170 to 200-inning type of arm. Instead, he may be in the Rich Hill or Lance McCullers Jr. mold, where you’ll get 125 – 135 innings and hopefully have him healthy enough to fill whatever role fits the staff best in the playoffs. Hill and McCullers are 55 or 60 FV types, so that’s likely Garcia’s upside if things break right.

Garcia is a very good athlete, which is what allows him to repeat his delivery, throw so many strikes, and have at least average command despite a delivery that has crossfire, recoil, and effort at release. We’re hesitant to knock Garcia’s delivery simply because it’s unusual, or due to his size, because his performance at this age has also been remarkable. He has a rising fastball with which he operates up in the zone, and he knows exactly how to use his high spin curveball, which has been over 3000 rpm at times. A well-located fastball up, a high-spin curveball down, and a changeup down to keep hitters honest is a good combo, and Garcia knows how to use them in sequence to set up hitters. There’s some question about his approach being too simplistic to work at the big league level, but again, we would bet on Garcia figuring out how to make it work. He’ll open 2019 in Double-A and could be good enough to crack the Bombers bullpen late in the season.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 55/55 30/50 65/60 45/50 55/55

Cabello was in the Others of Note section on this list last year, third amongst the 2017 July 2nd signees, none of whom had played a pro game at the time. But Cabello had the strongest 2018 of the group, and he arguably already had the loudest tools. He was one of the best performing amateur hitters from Venezuela in his signing class (just ahead of Everson Pereira, who’s further down this list), and he was also a plus runner who could’ve been converted to catcher given his quickness, arm strength, and squatty, powerful frame. But the Yankees didn’t want to slow down his bat by asking him to learn to catch. Some scouts who had a one or two game look at this summer didn’t love Cabello’s non-projectable frame, and they rounded down if he didn’t hit in those short looks. But those who saw him for more than a few games saw the advanced bat amateur scouts saw.

One enthusiastic scout described Cabello’s running as plus, though he’s not the typically graceful, long striding plus runner. That scout he said had a “grinding gait, full effort, kicking up grass as he runs like the rooster tail of a speed boat.” In addition to potential plus hit and run tools, there’s above-average arm strength and raw power, and now the start of a strong statistical performance record. And if things go askew at the plate, the notion that Cabello could catch is interesting. One Yankee source described him as an 80 makeup guy, often a prerequisite to consider sending a player behind the plate. He’s a well-rounded offensive player who looks like an up-the-middle defensive fit of some kind. He may be a top 100 prospect by mid season.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/50 35/45 92-96 / 97

Many of the teenage prospects on this list received big bonuses or were flagged after a season in the DSL as a prospect to watch; it’s unsurprising when those types move up this list. Contreras wasn’t one of those. He didn’t appear on last year’s list, which had 65 players in total — he wasn’t even in the Others of Note section. Contreras sat 90-92 mph with a curveball that flashed above average, but was still in the early stages of knowing how to use those weapons while pitching in the DSL and GCL in 2017. We first heard his name when he was wowing pro scouts who saw him in Staten Island last summer. The first scout we spoke with said Contreras had a Luis Severino starter kit, flashing two plus pitches and a starter’s delivery, though the changeup and command were understandably a bit behind. Those things progressed throughout the summer and he got a taste of Low-A at the end of the year. Yankees officials love Contreras’ makeup and competitive fire, and think he’s got a chance to be the 200-inning starter who comes out of this system, as the other pitchers on the list have one or more of the typical concerns (durability, command, arm surgery, less experience, or a standout pitch that fits best in relief). Contreras could grab a spot in next year’s Top 100 with a full healthy season of performance like his breakout 2018 campaign.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 55/60 55/60 55/60 40/45 95-99 / 101

A February appendectomy began Abreu’s roller coaster of a 2018, a fitting campaign for one of the more frustrating pitching prospects in baseball. Abreu, who was acquired from Houston as part of the Brian McCann deal, will regularly touch 101 with his fastball and has plus secondary stuff across the board. Career-long issues with strike-throwing, coupled with two consecutive years of multiple DL stints, continue to funnel Abreu toward a bullpen role despite the depth of his repertoire. The appendicitis set back Abreu’s spring preparation and he was DL’d for most of April while he caught up. He felt elbow discomfort at the end of June (he had elbow and shoulder issues in 2017, too), missed a month, made some nightmarish rehab starts in the GCL, then bounced back and had his usual stuff late in the year. While we believe it’s increasingly likely that Abreu eventually winds up in relief, he has the stuff to work in a multi-inning, Josh Hader-like role in that scenario, and could become one of the top 20 or 30 relievers in the game. He may see his first big league action in 2019 but we don’t expect he’ll be up for good until 2020.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/45 55/55 45/55 55/55

Pereira was probably the least exciting of the top three prospects from the Yankees 2017 July 2nd haul, behind Raimfer Salinas and Antonio Cabello. Pereira falls into the bucket of heady, up-the-middle Venezuelan players with solid tools to go along with excellent in-game amateur performance. He is an above-average runner with an above-average arm and plus center field instincts, which makes him an above-average defender there. He’ll likely grow into average raw power, but below-average game power due to a more gap-to-gap approach. Pereira has advanced feel to hit and held his own despite a higher strike out rate than expected in Pulaski as a 17-year-old, underlining the Yankees’ confidence in his ability to make adjustments. The reasonable upside is a 2-3 WAR, solid regular in center field, which may not excite Yankees fans but would be an amazing return on his $1.5 million bonus.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Cartersville HS (GA) (NYY)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / S FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/50 50/45 50/55 65/65

Entering summer showcase season, Seigler was known as something of an oddity: a switch-hitting, switch-throwing catcher who was also an ambidextrous reliever when needed. As the summer wore on, Seigler grew on scouts, was chosen as the backup catcher for Team USA, and quickly took the starting job from eventual Marlins second rounder Will Banfield. Seigler was able to do this (and eventually become a first round pick) due to his innate present feel for contact at the plate and receiving behind it. In addition to solid contact skills, Seigler also started to lift the ball in games closer to the draft and get to all of his fringy raw power. This polish helped to make teams less worried about his advanced age relative to his prep peers, and some scouts thought he was among the top 5-10 players in the entire draft.

Seigler had a solid pro debut that was in line with the expectations of any of the pro scouts we talked to who watched the Yankees’ GCL club. He’s an average runner and an above-average athlete for the position, projecting as an above-average defender with a 65-grade arm. Some clubs don’t like the recent track record of prep catchers and considered taking Seigler and then moving him to third base, but his feel for catching is too advanced to throw away. There are some similarities to another prep catcher from the prior draft: M.J. Melendez of the Royals. Melendez is a little twitchier while Seigler is a little more advanced in terms of skills. Seigler’s mother is Navajo and he would be the first Native American big leaguer to debut since Joba Chamberlain and the second ever from the Navajo Nation, joining Jacoby Ellsbury.

9. Luis Gil, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/70 50/60 45/50 40/50 40/50 93-97 / 100

The effortless grace with which Gil generates upper-90s velocity is absurd. Even more absurd is that the Yankees were able to pilfer a perfectly-built teenager with this kind of arm strength from Minnesota in exchange for a recently DFA’d Jake Cave. Perhaps it’s because, despite the comical ease of his delivery, Gil is extremely wild. Scouts often project heavily on the command of athletic pitchers, as well as pitchers with with good deliveries; those traits often go hand in hand. But the aesthetic pleasure one derives from Gil’s velvety mechanics is subverted by release inconsistency, a dichotomy also displayed by frustrating Dodgers prospect Yadier Alvarez throughout his young career. It also might simply be unreasonable to expect an inexperienced 20-year-old with this kind of velocity to have any idea where it’s going. Gil missed all of 2016 due to a shoulder surgery and has thrown just over 100 career innings. His secondary stuff is not as visually explosive as his fastball, but there’s plus-plus pure spin here, and Gil is in an org adept at altering deliveries to help enable their guys’ secondary stuff. Many players ranked below Gil in this system have a much better chance of reaching the majors than he does, but very few have the ceiling he has if his issues are resolved.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from South Carolina (NYY)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/55 50/55 45/55 40/50 91-94 / 96

In 2017, Schmidt turned a corner in his draft spring for South Carolina and looked likely to land in the middle of the first round, flashing four above average pitches and starter command for a No. 3 to 4 starter profile. His elbow blew out before the draft, and he had Tommy John surgery a month before the Yankees eventually took him in the middle of the first round, though for nearly $1.5 million below slot. Schmidt came back in 2018 from his surgery and essentially picked right up where he left off, hitting 96 mph and showing the same stuff as before, though it understandably was not quite as consistent. Schmidt was almost sent to the Arizona Fall league to rack up innings but instead will make his full season debut in 2019, likely starting in Hi-A and probably getting some time at Double-A, with a chance for a big league debut in 2020 if all goes to plan.

11. Luis Medina, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 55/65 45/55 30/40 95-97 / 101

Medina was up to 96 mph as an 15-year-old amateur, eventually going unsigned on July 2nd due in part to 20 command. Then he hit 100 mph as an amateur with improved feel, which is when the Yankee scooped him up for $300,000. He was the highest variance player on last year’s version of this list and is once again. The pure stuff hasn’t change and it’s top of the line: a 95-97 mph heater that has hit 101 mph, a power curveball that’s anywhere from 60 to 70 depending on the day, and a changeup that flashes 55 or 60 at its best. His command is now a 30 that we project to be a 40. But he’s still a teenager, so there’s a chance that things click for him and he finds 45 command and 50 control, which would be the minimum to stick as a starter with this kind of stuff. Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen only to have things will snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity. That said, this sort of stuff rarely comes with starter command, so Medina is probably either a high-wire act reliever with bonkers stuff or a starter with the stuff ratcheted down a bit, similar to what Touki Toussaint has done the last couple seasons.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 16.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/55 60/55 45/55 55/55

We ranked Alcantara fourth among the 2018 international amateurs because he has some of the group’s more advanced in-game feel to hit, he has a really good chance of not only staying in center field but might also be great there, and he has the best physical projection in the entire class. The more recently a source has seen Alcantara, the nuttier the reports get. Now that he has access to pro-quality athletic facilities, he’s already put on some good weight and has been hitting for more power during batting practice in the Dominican Republic. At one point he hit several BP homers, not just over the outfield fence, but over the fence that encloses the complex itself.

Built like Lewis Brinson and Cody Bellinger were at the same age, Alcantara has better feel for contact than either of them did as teens. Hitters this size often struggle with strikeouts due to lever length, and while Alcantara hasn’t faced much pro quality velocity to stress test this aspect of his offense, there are no early indications that strikeouts are going to be an issue for him. It may take physical maturation and little else to enable a breakout, and the comps industry personnel are placing on Alcantara (Devon White, Dexter Fowler, and Alex Rios to name a few) are very strong. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees handle his 2019 assignment, as it sounds like his skillset is ready for the GCL but it may behoove the team to leave him in the less-scouted DSL as a way of hiding him from clubs who don’t scout pro ball there.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Arkansas (NYY)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/45 40/50 91-95 / 96

Stephan’s cross-bodied delivery compares closely to that of Brewers righty Freddy Peralta, as both get way down the mound (Stephan gets nearly 7 feet of extension on his fastballs) and have lower arm slots that make right-handed hitters very uncomfortable. He makes heavy use of a hard slider that at times looks like a cutter. It has enough movement to miss bats if Stephan leaves it in the zone and he’s been able to back foot it to lefties. Changeup development is paramount, and a fair number of scouts think Stephan ends up in the bullpen both because his change is quite a bit behind the typical 23-year-old’s and because he throws exclusively from the stretch. While that’s a possibility, the way Stephan’s delivery enables his stuff to play up could make him viable in a multi-inning role. He reached Double-A in 2018 and has a chance to debut in 2019.

14. Osiel Rodriguez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (NYY)
Age 17.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/55 50/60 45/55 35/50 91-95 / 97

For a 16-year-old, high bonus pitcher, Rodriguez was a rarity in a number of ways. Since he defected from Cuba, he had a pretty long track record of high-level international competition. He pitched as a 14-year-old for the 15-and-under Cuban team, and posted a 69 IP, 32 H, 2 XBH, 20 BB, 102 K line. Then, at 15 years old, he pitched for the 18-and-under team and posted a 21 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 25 K line. He also struck out five of the six batters he faced in the MLB showcase in February, which is the linked video. On top of that, Rodriguez flashes four above average to plus pitches, has hit 97 mph, and has starter-caliber feel to pitch. He’s also 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, and has some room to add muscle. If you’re looking for things to nitpick, there’s some effort to his delivery that should be ironed out, and he does vary his arm slot, though it’s by choice. The Yankees will try to limit him to two breaking balls and one slot, but recognize that Rodriguez could be one of those rare pitchers like El Duque who can be effective throwing the kitchen sink from a half dozen different arm slots. Going back to what’s rare about Rodriguez, he seems to have it all, except for maybe an ideal present delivery and, obviously, stateside pro performance. This is about as high as we can rank a teenage pitching prospect who has only been seen a handful of times and hasn’t really faced many hitters who can handle his stuff, but there’s lots of room to grow on this 40+ FV if this trajectory continues.

40 FV Prospects

15. Nick Nelson, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Gulf Coast JC (FL) (NYY)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/55 45/55 45/50 40/45 94-97 / 98

Nelson was probably a little underrated as a fourth round pick in 2016 out of a Florida panhandle junior college. He didn’t start focusing exclusively on pitching until JUCO, and was up to 95 mph with an above average curveball, so he was seen more as an upside relief type, but it’s gone better than most clubs expected in pro ball. Nelson sits 94-97 and hits 98 mph even as a starter, and mixes in the same above-average curveball, but has also added a 55-flashing splitter, and, starting in instructs, added a 88-91 mph cutter that flashed average. The overall command is still a bit below average, mostly due to below average command of his off-speed stuff. Nelson can sometimes get cute and pitch backwards rather than focusing on developing fastball command and throwing his best pitch more often. There’s still a shot that he can turn into a traditional starting pitcher, but it looks more likely that he’ll be some kind of multi-inning middle relief or setup guy. After a solid 2018 that ended with a taste of Double-A, Nelson should begin 2019 there and may be in line for a big league look at the end of the year if the team needs some bullpen help in the Bronx.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/55 20/50 60/55 45/55 60/60

For some international scouts, Salinas was ahead of Cabello and Pereira, and was the top prospect in their 2017 signing class; he got the biggest bonus of the group at $1.85 million. Nothing has fundamentally changed since then, as Salinas’ 2018 season was ruined by a broken ring finger and knee bursitis that limited him to 11 games. You can see why scouts were so excited when you run down the tools: a plus runner with a plus arm and a chance for plus defense in center field, along with above average raw power potential and a shot at a 50 or better hit tool. Salinas likely heads back to extended spring training and the complex leagues to get bulk at-bats to catch up on reps, but there’s upside to shoot up this list with a healthy 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 70/80 30/60 50/40 40/45 55/55

Garcia signed for $500,000, which puts him behind the top tier of signees in the 2017 class for the Yankees. But his tools are arguably just as exciting, though riskier. He’s 6-foot-5 or 6-foot-6 depending on whom you ask and is only listed at 205 pounds, but is north of that and will get bigger. If he doesn’t have 80 raw power now, he will in the next few years, and he’s actually an average runner underway, though his first step isn’t great and he’ll lose a step or two with maturity. Garcia has the arm to profile in right field, but down the road, he’ll likely be an average glove there at best. There’s obvious leverage to his swing and he hit 10 homers in 44 games in the GCL as a 17-year-old, so it’s not like he’s sushi raw at tapping into his best tool. Dermis Garcia had similar tools at this stage, so that’s one way this can go. Another would be former Tigers prospect Steven Moya, who played last year in Japan. There are also two massive corner outfielders with 80 raw power currently in the big leagues for the Yankees, so you know what Garcia looks like if everything goes perfectly, but a 42% strikeout rate in Rookie ball isn’t the best starting place from which to get there.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (NYY)
Age 17.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 35/45 20/40 60/55 45/55 50/55

All the teams we’ve spoken with about Vargas over the last year or so had multi-million dollar evaluations of him based on how he looked in workouts. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash, had infield actions and a plus arm, and had a surprising ability to hit despite his stature, at the time weighing just 143 pounds. He was twitchy, projectable, looked fantastic at shortstop, and was old enough to sign immediately. We believe Vargas was originally slated to wait until 2019 to sign a pro contract (sources have indicated to us that it was to be with Cincinnati) but the Yankees had enough pool space to convince him to change his mind and sign a year earlier for about the same money. He’s a potential everyday shortstop, though we may not see him at a U.S. affiliate until 2020 due to his size.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from McLennan JC (TX) (NYY)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 60/65 30/50 30/30 40/45 65/65

Nick Swisher’s eyes lit up when he was told that the last name of the player he was set to announce as the Yankees’ second round pick is pronounced “bro,” a word Swish uses as linguistic filler the way most of us use ‘um’ or ‘like’ more than we want to. While some teams preferred him on the mound (Breaux would touch 98 and his sawed off arm action and the cadence of his delivery are reminiscent of Jason Motte, himself a converted catcher) or were inclined to develop Breaux as a two-way prospect, the Yankees selected him to catch. Two-way duty in college means Breaux is currently raw as a receiver and a hitter, but he has a rare opportunity to become an impact bat behind the plate if he can start recognizing pro breaking stuff. If not, the mound is a terrific fallback option.

20. Ryder Green, RF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Karns HS (TN) (NYY)
Age 18.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 65/70 35/55 55/50 45/50 60/60

It was widely believed that the Yankees would use their 2018 second or third round pick on an over slot high schooler with a strong college commitment, perhaps someone a bit under the radar, like Adam Hackenberg or Max Marusak. It turned out to be Green, who was signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment for just shy of $1 million. Green ended up transferring to new high schools after his family had issues with the coaching staff in his original district — issues that ultimately led to a dropped lawsuit and then a countersuit for defamation. But he was an early Vanderbilt commit, scouts knew who he was, and it didn’t affect the way he was scouted. He really broke out at the 2017 Area Code games, when he took one of the most impressive BPs there and had among the best outfield arms. He hit several balls hard during the week but was clearly raw from a bat-to-ball standpoint, and many scouts thought he’d end up going to college because apprehension over his hit tool would prevent teams from paying him enough to go pro. Green didn’t face a lot of good pitching while he was in high school and his breaking ball recognition is immature. He may be a multi-year rookie ball guy, and he’s a high-risk, high-variance prospect whose body and skillset have been compared to Steven Souza’s.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Louisville (SEA)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 50/50 25/45 55/55 45/50 45/45

Stowers performed and steadily improved throughout his sophomore and junior years at Louisville. Most scouts who saw him early in his draft spring thought he was a 55 runner who fit best in left field but didn’t think he’d have the power to profile there. Thus, they considered Stowers to be a bit of a tweener or the wrong side of a left field platoon, which is roughly where we had him pre-draft. Scouts who stayed on him (and knew they were the high scouts, so generally kept it to themselves) saw a 60 runner who could be average in center field, where a 50 or 55 bat with 45 power would be above average offense for the position. Enough people think that the second scenario is likely that we’ve notched him up to a strong 40 FV, and if Stowers performs like the believers think he can for all of 2019, he may be a 45 FV at the end of the year. He started hitting more down the stretch when he used a flatter planed swing, so it appears lifting the ball isn’t the swing that best suits him. That may limit his offensive upside a bit, but may also help him reach the big leagues faster.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 19.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/55 40/45 20/40 50/50 45/50 50/50

Cabrera spent much of 2017 in Charleston despite his lack of physicality because he was procedurally advanced for his age, especially on defense. He is athletic, fundamentally sound, and has perhaps the quickest defensive hands in the entire org. At the very least, Cabrera projects as an outstanding multi-positional defender, but he also might just be plus at shortstop at maturity and need to play there every day. He also has advanced bat-to-ball skills and even though he has been physically overmatched for about 200 Low-A games over two seasons, he has somehow managed to maintain a strikeout rate in the low teens. Cabrera has a little, 5-foot-10 frame and it’s not clear whether he’ll grow into the kind of physicality that would make him a viable offensive player. If he does, the feel for contact is already in place and he could break out. Though likely a switch-hitting utility man, Cabrera has a sneaky chance to be an everyday shortstop.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 17.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/50 20/45 30/20 40/50 80/80

Gomez stood out as a 15-year-old because of his one, truely freakish ability: he has a stone-cold 80 arm (clocked in the mid-80’s with a radar gun) and a quick release that allow him to regularly post pop times below 1.80 in games, which is generally a 70-grade time. Gomez is a mature-bodied prospect and a 30 runner presently, someone who appears “unathletic” on the surface. We often talk about football and baseball athleticism as being two different things, and Gomez is not football athletic, but definitely is baseball athletic. Instead of timed speed or visible strength, he displays quick-twich movement, first step quickness, and overall explosion through strength in the forearms, wrists, and hands. Gomez is an ideal case study in the differences, as he’s got soft hands and is mobile behind the plate, and has solid average raw power with similarly graded bat control. The Yankees may have a 5 defensive catcher with a 5 bat, 5 raw power, and an 8 arm here. That would be quite a find for $600,000, especially given the current wasteland that is big league catching.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 19.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/55 20/50 50/45 40/50 45/45

Duran was a sleeper pick to click on this list last year but things did not go well. We liked Duran’s tools and 2017 DSL performance, as well as his loud minor league spring training, complete with gaudy in-game exit velocities as high as 112 mph. His 2018 started well with that March showing, but his stateside regular season debut was a disaster, with 4% walks, 28% strikeouts, and a 48 wRC+ in 53 games at Rookie-Advanced Pulaski. The tool grades are essentially the same except for the defense at second base, as the quickly thickening Duran is not a strong athletic fit for the infield. Some of the issues Duran had in 2018 were similar to the issues a teenage Drew Waters had at the same level for the Braves in 2017, before a breakout to top 100 prospect status in 2018. After a full year of success at the plate, Duran tried to do too much, chasing pitches more than he had in the past, getting into bad counts, then facing the best pitching he’s seen and not being able to get out of the slump. His mechanics didn’t break down and he’s still a teenager with plenty of time to adjust, but now poor plate discipline is something to watch going forward, to see if those bad habits can change or end up limiting his offensive upside.

25. Matt Sauer, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Righetti HS (CA) (NYY)
Age 20.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 40/50 35/45 92-95 / 96

Sauer’s velocity was way down last year, often resting 91-93 and sometimes ranging to 89-93, after he had gone long stretches of high school starts where he’d sit 93-95. His violent head whack and arm action caused considerable consternation among amateur scouts who worried about his long term arm health, but the org attributes Sauer’s 2018 velo decline to the rigors of pro ball, something it believes Sauer will be better prepared to deal with in 2019. The most electric version of Sauer has a high-leverage fastball/curveball combination, a two-pitch duo that could close games. If Sauer’s changeup and command improve, he has mid-rotation upside. He made strike-throwing strides in 2018, but the changeup is still below-average. He should be ticketed for full-season ball and see a substantial innings increase, but the key variable to watch when camp breaks is his velocity.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 22.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 45/45 30/40 60/55 45/50 55/55

Estrada was a 45 FV on last year’s ranking, evaluated as an MLB-ready utility infielder or low-end regular at shortstop. During the offseason he was shot in the hip during a robbery in Venezuela and required surgery. The initial surgery was botched and Estrada needed a second operation during the summer, which ended his regular season. When he returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, he had clearly lost a step overall, but it was most obvious when watching Estrada play defense. There’s a chance this was just rust and that Estrada will go back to doing the things that placed him in the Yankees’ offseason infield conversation before he was shot; average range and plus actions at short, a plus arm, some speed, and feel for contact. He’ll bounce back into the 45 FV tier if those things return in the spring, but he looked like a fringe bench piece last fall.

Drafted: 18th Round, 2017 from UAB (NYY)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 50/55 90-93 / 95

When you watch Whitlock (video link above) the first things you should notice are his large stature and slightly awkward arm action and release. He has better feel than you’d guess for repeating his delivery, throwing his sinker down in the zone, and manipulating his slider, so you can see why he had good numbers across three levels in 2018 as a starter. There aren’t a ton of starters who look like this or pitch like this in the big leagues. Pitchers whose best skill is locating a good slider (like Cardinals recent first rounder Griffin Roberts, who drew Luke Gregerson comps from scouts) are often put in relief, though secondary-pitch heavy usage is now more common with guys in a rotation. The ceiling here seems like a No. 4 starter if you squint; a realistic outcome is more like a 7th inning reliever who can go multiple innings and get by with fringy velocity.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 40/45 20/40 60/60 50/55 55/55

He’s not especially toolsy or projectable, but Olivares is so polished in all facets (especially his reads in center field) that it was he who the Yankees called up when early-season injury dominos necessitated that the they push a low-level outfielder to Hi-A. When Olivares was sent back to developmentally appropriate Low-A Charleston, he excelled. Tough to beat with only velocity because of how short his swing is, Olivares hit .322 for Charleston and would have won the Sally League batting title had he taken enough at-bats to qualify, but his hand was struck by a pitch in early July, ending his season. The general consensus is that Olivares may ultimately have limited value due to a lack of power, and end up either as a fourth outfielder or a regular on par with what Albert Almora or Manuel Margot have been to this point, and we agree that range of outcomes is most likely. But Olivares entered 2018 with a more open, upright stance that seemed to benefit his timing and enabled him to pull the ball more, so perhaps last year’s power output isn’t a complete mirage and there are some right-tail paths to everyday production.

29. Michael King, RHP
Drafted: 12th Round, 2016 from Boston College (MIA)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/45 45/50 50/55 45/50 90-94 / 95

Considering how much of the current Marlins regime came over from New York, one would think the two orgs would not only target similar types of talent but also have similar developmental vision for that talent. This does not appear to have been the case with King, who was a prospect afterthought when he was part of a seemingly innocuous trade between the Marlins and Yankees just after the 2017 season. King had been a Marlins 12th round pick out of Boston College a year and a half prior to the deal and, like clockwork, had only struck out about six batters per nine innings every year in college, as well as in his first two pro seasons. The Marlins altered King’s position on the rubber and made other mechanical tweaks to alter the movement profile of his pitches. After the Yankees acquired him, they let him return to what he was doing in college and he vastly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations in 2018. He led the Yankees system in strikeouts and innings while traversing three levels, reaching Triple-A.

The lynchpin of King’s success is his command of a dancing two-seam fastball that runs back onto his glove-side corner of the plate. Left-handed hitters think it’s coming at their hip, righties give up on it because they think it’s off the plate, and King gets a lot of looking strikeouts with it. There are questions about the quality of his secondary stuff. He has a quality changeup, but his breaking ball is mediocre. He seems to have added a cutter late in the year, and that pitch’s movement may better complement that of his fastball. Most teams have King evaluated as a stable backend starter; some think he should be in the 45 FV tier of this list. A purported nerd and exhaustive pre-start preparer, King is a high-probability big leaguer who we believe has limited ceiling, though if he develops 7 or 8 command, all bets are off.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 50/55 35/45 91-94 / 96

When ‘pitchability’ is one of the first words a scout uses to describe a teenager, we don’t generally expect that teenager to also throw in the mid-90s. But such is the case with Gomez, who has a remarkable early-career ability to manipulate the shape of a fastball that touches 96. He can cut it, sink it, use variations in sequence together, and has feel for dumping in first-pitch curveballs for strikes. Gomez is still a lanky teenager who has problems repeating his delivery, so while he has obvious on-mound creativity, he doesn’t always execute, and his ability to locate needs to develop. Aside from the fastball, Gomez’s stuff is, or projects to be, close to average, and his likely long-term fit is at the back of a rotation. As soon as his command starts to improve, he’ll be capable of carving up the lower levels by mixing in all these pitches, and if it happens in 2019, he could end the year with Low-A Charleston.

31. Juan Then, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 35/50 92-94 / 95

The Yankees acquired Then from Seattle for 40-man bubble reliever Nick Rumbelowafter Then had just wrapped his first pro season in the DSL. He was, and remains, advanced for his age, but with just middling stuff and physical projection. He’s much more likely to end up toward the back of a rotation than in the middle of one, but the Yankees have had success developing velocity and Then’s fastball is already a little harder now than it was when he was with Seattle, so it’s possible there’ll be more heat here than we anticipate. For now, we have Then projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

32. Frank German, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from North Florida (NYY)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 40/50 40/50 40/50 92-95 / 97

German was a solid middle-round college pitching prospect going into the 2018 draft, with most clubs treating him as a 6th-8th round talent who could possibly be a target for the 11th-12th rounds and a $125,000 bonus, as cheap senior signs fill-in the latter stages of the top 10 rounds. Then German (Dominican-born and whose name is pronounced like the European country) had one of the latest pre-draft velo spikes possible, suddenly hitting 95 mph during the Atlantic Sun conference tournament in his final college game just two weeks before the draft. Velo is a dime a dozen these days, but German had the athleticism and arm action of a starter and had put on about 15 pounds in the previous 12 months, so some thought this could be coming. Clubs who had scouts at that start shot him up the board, and the Yankees jumped to the front of the line to take him in the fourth round. The velo spike held in pro ball: German sat 92-95 and hit 97 mph in fall instructional league and put on about 10 additional pounds after signing. The upside is a bit limited, as his slider and changeup still just flash average at best, but the Yankees are changing German’s slurvy college breaking ball into more of a true slider and pushing him to throw his changeup more, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the future pitch grades move north as he continues to mature as a pitcher.

33. Freicer Perez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 8″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 50/55 35/45 93-96 / 97

The gargantuan Perez was still throwing hard during the spring of 2018, but his stuff appeared to be depressed once the regular season began and he was much more wild than he had been the year before. He was shut down with shoulder inflammation after just six starts, then rehabbed in Tampa throughout June before it was determined he’d need surgery to clean up bone spurs in that shoulder, which ended Perez’s season. When healthy, he sits in the mid-90s and has a bevy of average secondary pitches that could be 55s at peak, and he has pleasantly surprising command for his size. Perez has No. 4 or 5 starter upside, maybe a little more than that if you think his size helps the stuff play as plus, assuming it and the strikes comes back.

35+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 176 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Peraza is currently the lowest rated prospect of a quartet of Yankees that a couple of scouts grouped together as similar types: Oswaldo Cabrera, Thairo Estrada, Pablo Olivares, and Peraza. All are smaller, contact-oriented hitters with good feel for the game and up the middle defensive profiles. We’ve seen enough of this kind of prospect beat expectations and turn into steady 2-3 win players for scouts and analysts to know not dismiss them as quickly as they normally would. The hit rate is such that one of them will likely have more of a big league career than any five-game scouting look would suggest, since their abilities are often more subtle. Peraza may have the most defensive value of the group as a no-doubt shortstop, but he’s also the youngest, with the shortest track record and underwhelming performance, and a limited tools-based upside due to mostly average-ish grades. He’s seen some recent strength and power gains, although it may take longer to see those show up in his stat line.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 18.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Chirinos signed for $900,000 and made his pro debut last year, mostly playing in the GCL as a 17-year-old. The underlying numbers were just okay and the top line numbers were worse, in part due to bad luck, but the tools are still loud. In 2018, Chirinos played mostly shortstop, with a few games at second base, but behind the scenes, the Yankees have worked him out at every position on the field and think there’s a real chance he could move behind the plate and profile as an everday guy back there. He has an easy plus arm and what some club officials call 80 makeup to go with 50-grade raw power and speed. Most amateur scouts didn’t have questions on Chirinos’ bat, so they expect that to come around to 50 or better in time. There’s a chance, given this makeup and tools profile, that Chirinos could work his way into the new archetype of a multi-positional catcher utilityman (think Austin Barnes, Will Smith, Kyle Farmer, Connor Wong, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Josh Morgan, or Garrett Stubbs) who has become fashionable as progressive clubs look to have more flexibility in lineup decision-making.

36. Ronny Rojas, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 17.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

So young was Rojas compared to his July 2 peer group that he had to wait until he had turned 16 a few months after the signing period began to finalize a $1 million agreement with the Yankees. He spent his entire first pro season as a 16-year-old in the DSL and posted a shockingly high strikeout rate (40%) considering how enthused international scouts were about his bat. It’s fair to consider the extreme whiff rate a red flag if you really want to, but we caution against putting too much stock into DSL stats, and expect volatile performance from a switch-hitter this young. Purely considering physical tools, Rojas is notable. He has plus bat speed from both sides of the plate and surprising power for his age. He also has athletic defensive footwork and actions, but his boxy, semi-mature frame likely projects to second or third base. He’s a switch-hitting infielder with power whose future is dependent on developing feel for contact.

37. Angel Rojas, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 18.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Rojas was one of the players the Braves signed in the months before their international scandal; he became a free agent before playing a game for the club. After keeping his voided $300,000 deal with the Braves, Rojas was scooped up by the Yankees months later for $350,000. When he signed with Atlanta, Rojas was under-the-radar and weighed about 130 pounds with some quick-twitch ability, plus speed, and the hands for shortstop, a prospect who the Braves thought would grow with physical maturity. Move about 18 months into the future, and Rojas is a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm who is up to about 160 pounds and has achieved in-game exit velos as high as 108 mph. It’s still a flatter-planed, contact-oriented swing, and Rojas often plays out of control as he’s still learning how to harness his newly-improved tools, but the DSL performance was solid and this is too much like a Jose Reyes starter kit to ignore.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (NYY)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Garcia was one of the top talents in his July 2 class and got the biggest bonus ($3.2 million) the Yankees handed out in their pool-busting effort. Garcia was seen then as a mature-framed corner type with massive raw power, but there were questions about his contact and athleticism for defense. Those are still the issues to worry about here. Reports are that Garcia has slimmed and will continue playing third base in 2019, where his plus arm has a chance to play, unlike at first base, which is his most likely destination long-term. There was some chatter of developing Garcia on the mound, either exclusively or as a two-way player, but nothing came of it. In his age-19 and 20 seasons at Low-A, he hit 23 homers in 488 plate appearances, so he can already get to his grade-70 or 80 raw power in games (one source mentioned a 117 mph exit velo), but he also struck out over 30% of the time during that stretch. This is starting to feel like a Quad-A power hitter who only gets a big league cup of coffee or has a short-lived platoon/bench role, but he’s also still just 21, so we’ll give the raw tools and pedigree the benefit of the doubt for one more year.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Tools Goofs
Juan De Leon, RF
Alexander Palma, RF
Isiah Gilliam, LF
Miguel Marte, SS
Stanley Rosario, LF
Isaiah Pasteur, CF

De Leon got $2 million in the 2014 July 2nd class and still has the loud tools — 70 bat speed, 60 raw, 55 speed, 60 arm — that had scouts so excited, but his conditioning and quality of play have fluctuated. Palma, 23, signed for $800,000 in the 2012 July 2nd class and was having a breakout year at Hi-A until he broke both his fibula and tibia. Much of his 2017 season was lost to injury, as well. He’s a 55 runner with above-average hit and raw power, and the power was starting to play in games. Gilliam has 65-grade raw power from both sides of the plate but is limited defensively and instinctually. Marte signed for $200,000 in 2017 and was arguably the best Yankees prospect in the DSL. He’s a legit shortstop with a plus arm, plus speed, instincts, and some contact skill. Rosario is a poor man’s version of Anthony Garcia; he takes a healthy hack but there’s not a whole lot else yet. Pasteur was a 13th rounder in 2018 out of George Washington (he transferred from Indiana) and he’ll turn 23 next season so he’ll need to perform, but he’s an 80 runner and freak athlete with a weird swing and a chance to play the infield.

Potential Reserves/Platoon Types
Hoy Jun Park, SS
Diego Castillo, SS
Ben Ruta, LF
Jason Lopez, C
Saul Torres, C

Park, recently passed over in the Rule 5 Draft, originally signed out of Korea for $1,000,000. He’s a bit passive at the plate and doesn’t have much game power, but he’s a plus runner with some contact skills and can play at least an average shortstop. He turns 23 in April. Castillo is a gritty, plus makeup shortstop with great instincts and middling raw tools. Ruta is a grinder reserve outfield type who one scout compared to Sam Fuld. Lopez is a prototypical potential backup catcher who converted from the infield, and it looks like he’s going stick back there, but probably not have much offensive impact. Torres has a 70-grade arm and is a 50 or 55 defender with 50 raw power, but has a lot of trouble making hard contact.

Power Arms with Likely Bullpen Futures
Glenn Otto, RHP
Domingo Acevedo, RHP
Chance Adams, RHP
Raynel Espinal, RHP
Alexander Vizcaino, RHP

Otto was a reliever at Rice (winces) who the Yankees wanted to develop a changeup and try to start, but he missed nearly the whole season with a blood clot issues in his shoulder. He’s up to 96 mph and flashes a 70 curveball in short stints, so relief wouldn’t be such a bad thing, but it sounds like they’ll give starting one more try. Acevedo has solid middle relief stuff and command but can’t stay healthy. He’s up to 98 mph and could be a two-pitch reliever (the changeup is the best secondary). Adams was drafted as a power reliever and was asked to start, and his stuff held up for a while, but then it slowly backed up last year. It may now make sense to put him in the bullpen and see if it bounces back. Espinal was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft but he’s got a funky three-quarters delivery, a good slider, and his velo was up last year, as was his K%. Sources we spoke with have varied opinions of Vizcaino’s secondary stuff, which could just be evidence of inconsistency. His fastball is into the upper-90s, sitting 93-97, and he’s shown an above-average slider.

Starter Types at the Lower Levels
Miguel Yajure, RHP
Denny Larrondo, RHP
Jhonatan Munoz, RHP
Rony Garcia, RHP
Nolan Martinez, RHP
Dalton Lehnen, LHP
Harold Cortijo, RHP

Yajure (pronounced yah-HOOR-ray) has command of above-average offspeed, which gives him a chance to be a backend starter. Larrondo is a 16-year-old Cuban who signed for $550,000 last summer. He sits 89-92 mph with touch and feel, is athletic, and can spin it. Munoz is a 5-foot-11 bulldog reliever with solid average stuff. He came right at hitters and had success in 50-pitch outings during extended and short-season ball last year. Garcia is another potential backend starter who’s up to 95 mph with a solid average curveball. Martinez was an overslot third rounder in 2016 but has had trouble adding weight and staying healthy, so his above average stuff has backed up. Lehnen is a finesse lefty who may benefit from a new weapon, perhaps a cutter, a pitch this system has more of than is usual. Cortijo is 5-foot-9 and has a fringy slider but he’s up to 95 mph and gets good extension, and he has an above average changeup.

System Overview

Perhaps no team’s talent cup runneth over quite like the Yankees. Since 2015, they have had 11 players selected from their org in the Rule 5 draft and made countless trades sending away viable major leaguers who couldn’t crack their 40-man roster. As they’ve enacted this 40-man churn, the Yankees have specifically targeted players far away from the big leagues, guys who don’t have to be added to their crowded 40-man for several years.

Because more and more teams have placed value on certainty and player proximity to the majors, the Yankees have been able to flip a bunch of relievers in their mid-20s for young, high-variance players who have sizable upside if things click. Our prospect asset values put big numbers on 50 FV or higher guys, and the Yankees only have one of those, so they won’t rank highly in our farm system rankings. But they definitely have the most of the high ceiling, high-variance sorts, including a few who, as we point out in the scouting reports, could be Top 100 caliber by midseason, giving the Yankees a high likelihood of moving into the top half of systems during 2019, barring trades.

When we spoke with scouts who were excited about talent from the low levels of this system, we asked why their team hadn’t traded for one of those players. The answer? The Yankees won’t discuss them. Their 40-man crunch, big payroll, and talented major league roster have driven the youth movement at the lower levels. This is interesting to contrast with the Rays, who have one of baseball’s smallest payrolls, have stocked their big league team with pre-arbitration talent, and have a farm system clogged with prospects at Double- and Triple-A.

A few other teams have begun to experience a similar 40-man crunch (San Diego and Tampa Bay come to mind) but the Yankees have been employing this methodology for a few years now, and it has had a drastic impact on the shape of their farm system. This, combined with a strong international program and a willingness to acquire additional pool space in recent years, has helped lead to a whopping 58% of the players on this prospect list being teenagers. On average, this is the youngest farm system we’ve written up so far, with players in the 35+ FV or better tiers averaging 20.2 years old, two years younger than in most other systems.

Last year’s Brandon Drury saga is a great example of why that strategy is necessary. Perfectly fine big leaguers are hard for the Yankees to roster right now. They have stars, who will need to be usurped by other players of similar caliber. 25-year-old relievers and utility infielders may be viable big leaguers, but they don’t often suddenly turn into stars. Some of these teenagers might.


Top 32 Prospects: Baltimore Orioles

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Baltimore Orioles. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

**Editor’s note** Rule 5 pick Drew Jackson was originally ranked 26th on this list but was removed after he was returned to Los Angeles.

Orioles Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 DL Hall 20.4 A LHP 2020 50
2 Yusniel Diaz 22.3 AA RF 2019 50
3 Ryan Mountcastle 21.9 AA LF 2019 50
4 Grayson Rodriguez 19.2 R RHP 2023 45
5 Austin Hays 23.6 AA RF 2019 45
6 Keegan Akin 23.8 AA LHP 2020 45
7 Ryan McKenna 22.0 AA CF 2020 45
8 Zac Lowther 22.7 A+ LHP 2019 45
9 Dean Kremer 23.1 AA RHP 2019 45
10 Brenan Hanifee 20.7 A RHP 2021 40+
11 Adam Hall 19.7 A- SS 2022 40+
12 Brett Cumberland 23.6 AA C 2019 40
13 D.J. Stewart 25.2 MLB LF 2019 40
14 Jean Carlos Encarnacion 21.0 A 3B 2021 40
15 Cadyn Grenier 22.2 A SS 2020 40
16 Richie Martin 24.1 AA SS 2019 40
17 Zach Pop 22.4 AA RHP 2019 40
18 Blaine Knight 22.6 A- RHP 2021 40
19 Cody Carroll 26.3 AAA RHP 2019 40
20 Branden Kline 27.3 AA RHP 2019 40
21 Lamar Sparks 20.3 R CF 2022 40
22 Hunter Harvey 24.1 AA RHP 2019 40
23 Dillon Tate 24.7 AA RHP 2019 40
24 Evan Phillips 24.4 MLB RHP 2019 40
25 Matthias Dietz 23.4 A+ RHP 2020 35+
26 Rylan Bannon 22.8 AA 3B 2020 35+
27 Michael Baumann 23.4 A+ RHP 2021 35+
28 Jean Carmona 19.2 A- 3B 2022 35+
29 Drew Rom 19.1 R LHP 2023 35+
30 Luis Ortiz 23.3 AAA RHP 2019 35+
31 Jake Zebron 19.0 R RHP 2023 35+
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50 FV Prospects

1. DL Hall, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Valdosta HS (GA) (BAL)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 50/55 40/50 92-96 / 97

Though he’d flash three plus pitches and at times look like a top 10 pick, teams had the kind of pre-draft concerns about Hall that are typical of high school pitchers (holding stuff deep into starts, command), and some teams rounded down due to perceived off-field issues, concerns that have proven to be unfounded, or at least were quickly remedied, in pro ball. Hall has also made on-field progress throughout 2018. Early in the season, he was wild. As it wore on, some mechanical issues were ironed out, and his changeup feel turned a corner through increased use. He dominated for long stretches of games during the second half of the season, including a commanding July during which he allowed just 10 hits and struck out 39 in 26.2 innings. The strike-throwing is still not great, but it has gotten better, and Hall’s stuff is really good. At around 6-feet even, Hall is short but he’s thick and strong, and scouts aren’t worried his durability. He has mid-rotation upside if his command continues to progress. He’s in the midst of answering every pre-draft question asked of him and has a chance to be an All-Star.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Cuba (LAD)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/50 40/50 50/50 50/55 55/55

Diaz was a prominent and expensive part of the Dodgers ’15-’16 international spending spree that is now the subject of a Department of Justice investigation. He signed for a $15 million bonus — the Dodgers paid a dollar-for-dollar tax on his deal for exceeding their pool limit — during a CBA era that was more lucrative for international players. So advanced was Diaz that at age 19, the Dodgers saw fit to send him directly to Hi-A Rancho Cucamonga the following year, and he performed admirably for what amounted to a season and a half before enjoying a statistical breakout at Double-A Tulsa starting late in 2017. His stock and performance reached a pinnacle in 2018; Diaz slashed .314/.428/.477 with Tulsa, homered twice and won MVP at the Futures Game in July. Shortly thereafter he was traded to Baltimore as the headline prospect in the Manny Machado deal.

Diaz has a well-rounded collection of average tools that, in aggregate, promise to make him a valuable everyday big leaguer. He has slowly whittled down what was once a pretty big leg kick into something more simplistic, and it seems to have benefitted Diaz’s timing without subtracting from his power. He can open up and get the bat head on pitches in, and he has feel for opposite-field contact if he’s a little late on something away from him. We’d be surprised if Diaz became a 3-plus win annual WAR producer, but we think he’s a very stable everyday outfield prospect who’ll be big league ready in the next year and a half or so.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Hagerty HS (FL) (BAL)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 60/60 35/50 45/40 30/40 30/30

Mountcastle was identified early in high school because he played at an Orlando-area powerhouse that had eight players drafted between 2011 and 2016, including a first rounder in Zach Eflin, and, over on the gridiron, current Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel. His high school coach, Jered Goodwin, now a FIU assistant, ran arguably the top travel program in Florida at the time, so Mountcastle had year-round reps in front of scouts for years. He’s still largely the same player he was in high school in terms of raw tools: plus bat control, plus raw power, with fringy speed and no clear defensive home because he has issues throwing. He’s played mostly shortstop and third base in pro ball but scouts keep comparing his profile to Nick Castellanos‘ and think he ends up in left field.

There’s some optimism that his arm will improve with a throwing program, or that he could play second base (which is worth a try), but usually these situations end with the player at the lower end of the defensive spectrum. Like Castellanos, Mountcastle is a little too aggressive at the plate but has the bat control to keep his strikeout rates from getting too high. The projection here is something like a 55 bat and 55 power, maybe a bit less if the approach doesn’t continue to improve, with below average speed and defensive value, wherever he ends up playing. We wish he were a little choosier at the dish — that’s a lower-risk, 2 WAR-type prospect. Mountcastle will start 2019 in Triple-A, so the wait shouldn’t be long.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Central Heights HS (TX) (BAL)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 50/60 40/50 40/50 93-96 / 99

Rodriguez was an early-velo guy in his draft class, notable as an underclassman because of his prodigious size and arm strength. Then he plateaued a bit and was sitting mostly 90-92 in short stints on the showcase circuit leading into his draft year. But right out of the gate the next spring, Rodriguez began running his heater up to 98, and was instantly in the first round conversation as soon as teams got in to watch him dominate pretty weak competition in Nacogdoches, TX. Rodriguez fits the mold of a first round prep righty, a player demographic increasingly perceived as risky on draft day. He has a big frame that remains relatively projectable, has big velocity and a great breaking ball, and shows other starter traits often enough that he projects as part of a rotation. Some scouts thought the changeup and command would progress, but not be weapons of their own; they had Rodriguez toward the back of the first round. Others thought the curveball and slider both flashed plus and didn’t care about the change, or thought his delivery only needed small tweaks. Those teams thought he could become a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Jacksonville (BAL)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 60/60 45/50 55/55 50/55 60/60

It’s hard to get a grip on Hays, who has hovered at the edge of the 45/50 FV line here at FanGraphs since his breakout 2017. The tools are for real: plus raw power, plus arm strength, above-average bat control, speed and defense in right field and, until 2018, an unassailable record of performance. Still, corner-only hitters with approach issues — Hays is a free swinger with a pull-heavy approach — run the risk of having their lack of discernment taken advantage of in the majors with little defensive value left to fall back on. After reaching Baltimore in 2017, 2018 was a nightmare for Hays: he struggled out of the gate, had his approach tinkered with to try to fix things only to have it not work, then injured his ankle and needed surgery. He missed two months and continued struggling when he returned. Some rival clubs see a buy-low opportunity and would love to take a chance on Hays’ tools, but the Orioles probably aren’t selling low, with the rebuilding club offering an easy road to MLB playing time for the foreseeable future. There’s big offensive talent here if Hays can bounce back and find an approach that works in the big leagues. He’s volatile, though, and will be 24 in July, so this spring and early season are pretty important.

6. Keegan Akin, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Western Michigan (BAL)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 55/60 45/50 92-95 / 98

The first thing you notice about Akin is his hefty frame. He’s listed at 6-feet and 225 pounds, but he’s a bit north of that and has come into the last two spring training camps larger than expected. That said, Akin’s build isn’t seen as a huge problem going forward, as it hasn’t impacted his stuff, and most think he just needs to keep it in check a bit. Sources indicated to us that had he not hit his innings limit late in 2018, he would’ve gotten a big league look in September. The condition of Baltimore’s pitching staff is certainly favorable for a soonish Akin debut, and he’ll likely open 2019 in Triple-A.

He has above-average big league stuff, especially for a lefty: he sits 92-95 and hits 98 mph, mixing in a solid average slider and a plus changeup. His command ranges from 40 to 60 depending on the start, and Akin’s build often leads scouts to believe this is due to his conditioning. We’re wary of discounting a player just because he doesn’t fit traditional rubrics for success, and baseball is littered with unusual frames and mechanics, but Akin has also had hamstring and oblique issues. The stuff is of the No. 3/4 starter and, considering Baltimore’s current predicament, we expect him to be developed as a starter for as long as possible, though there is some bullpen risk. He’ll likely be up in 2019.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2015 from St. Thomas Aquinas HS (NH) (BAL)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 45/45 30/40 70/70 55/60 50/50

McKenna’s 2018 Arizona Fall League showing took those who had seen him during the spring and summer a bit by surprise. Even as he was hitting a raucous and unsustainable .377/.467/.556 at Hi-A Frederick, McKenna dealt with a myriad of lower body ailments that clouded his speed and defensive abilities in center field. In the autumn though, he was posting 70 and 80-grade run times to first base, and his range is center field is perhaps the best Baltimore will have seen since Ed Reed. Offensively, McKenna’s abilities fall somewhere between that incredible first half and his lousy late-summer showing at Double-A Bowie. He doesn’t have much raw power but he may hit an awful lot of doubles by slashing balls down each baseline, and by turning dribbling gap liners into hustle doubles. Big league pitching may eventually find locations to attack McKenna that prevent him from getting to his brand of power — he struggled to do anything with pitches down and in during Fall League, for instance — and if that’s true, he may end up as a fourth outfielder, but we tentatively have him projected as a low-end regular in center field.

8. Zac Lowther, LHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Xavier (BAL)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 45/55 88-91 / 94

Lowther is the kind of prospect who grows on you the more you watch him and once you see his Trackman readout. At first blush, he’s an unimpressive athlete who sits around 90 mph with his fastball, and throws from a lower slot that makes you wonder if he’s an obvious reliever. Sure, the curveball flashes plus and you’ve noticed he commands all of his pitches, which might enable an average changeup to be a successful third weapon. As you dig a little deeper, you notice that Lowther hides his arm behind his body for much of his delivery and that he has nearly seven feet of down-mound extension, which screws with hitters’ feel for timing his fastball and helps it play up.

Most scouts don’t like pitchers who work up in the strike zone, but there is a specific type who can make this work and we think Lowther is exactly that type. The formula is to get down the mound, throw from a lower release point, and have a fastball that “rises” — that’s rare to create from a low slot — and command it to parts of the zone where hitters are vulnerable; Lowther does all of these things. He has below-average velocity, but we think the fastball is a 55 pitch with these separators, and some scouts think his changeup plays up for the same reason. With all that in mind, you see Lowther in a different light: as a durable innings-eating starter with a long track record of success, three 55-to-60 grade pitches and command, along with the pitchability and deception qualities that help ensure he’ll still stick in a rotation if his raw stuff takes a step backward. Lowther turns 23 in April and likely starts the season in Double-A, but he may be one of the top five starters in the Orioles organization by midseason. He’s about as low risk of a pitching prospect as you’ll see among those who haven’t been above A-ball. We often under-rank these types, as there is sneaky No. 3 or 4 starter (55 FV) upside lurking beneath the surface.

9. Dean Kremer, RHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2016 from UNLV (LAD)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 55/60 45/55 45/50 90-94 / 96

Some international evaluators had a longer history of seeing Kremer than area scouts did, as Kremer spent his freshman and draft-eligible sophomore seasons at two different schools, but he’s been pitching for Israel’s national team since 2014. A dual citizen, Kremer was the first ever Israeli to have his name called during baseball’s draft. His stuff drastically improved once he began to be nurtured by the Dodgers’ player development machine, and Kremer K’d more hitters over 131 innings of work in 2018 than he did during his entire college career. His fastball has middling velocity but it’s lively, and Kremer’s arm slot is tough on righties. Both of his secondaries are capable of missing bats and while Kremer lacks pinpoint command, he throws enough strikes to start. Before he was part of the Manny Machado trade, Kremer projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter or multi-inning reliever. We think he’s best suited for the latter role, but given the rebuilding nature of the Orioles, he’ll likely begin his big league career as a starter.

40+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Ashby HS (VA) (BAL)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 45/50 45/50 91-93 / 95

Baltimore had originally planned on taking Hanifee, who grew up an Orioles fan, in the third round of the 2016 draft but instead took the surprisingly available Austin Hays. Hanifee was still on the board the next time Baltimore was on the clock and he signed for $500,000. A terrific on-mound athlete built like an NFL quarterback, Hanifee relies heavily on a sinking mid-90s fastball. The rest of his profile is pretty raw. He doesn’t have great natural feel for spin, and it probably behooves him and the Orioles to focus on changeup development if his mediocre strikeout rate is going to climb. But the sinker, and high-volume strike throwing ability, provide the foundation for an innings-eating backend starter at the least, and you can feel free to project heavily on much of the rest of Hanifee’s profile because of his prototypical frame and athleticism, though it’s becoming more evident that spin isn’t a teachable quality. There’s risk Hanifee is forced into the bullpen due to the lack of repertoire depth, but if his velo ticks up in max-effort, single-innings stints, he could be dominant. He should be developed as a starter to get reps with the change and refine the fastball command.

11. Adam Hall, SS
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Lucas HS (CAN) (BAL)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 20/40 60/60 45/50 55/55

Hall left his family in Bermuda at age 12 to pursue high-level baseball in Canada. As an amateur prospect, he was on the radar pretty early; the Canadian Junior National Team plays a strong schedule that includes a spring training tilt against the Blue Jays, so they typically travel with their top underclassmen. Hall was a middle-round prospect for most scouts, who saw him as more of a second baseman and questioned his ability to hit, but still liked the plus speed and average raw power. Enthusiasts rounded up on the hitting skills because of his cold weather background. Baltimore popped Hall in the second round in 2017, but he didn’t play an extended run of regular season professional games until the summer of 2018.

Sources tell us he was excellent in the lightly-scouted extended spring training camp early in 2018, then struggled early in the New York-Penn League season as he had a red light on stealing bases and also on swinging in some counts. Later in that season, we’re told that Hall ignored that directive; he swiped 15 bases in August alone, then had a strong instructional league showing. Other clubs noticed and hoped they could snatch him in a minor trade during Baltimore’s regime change. He now looks more like a viable shortstop. He’s bigger and stronger, with a better sense of the strike zone and what kind of swing and approach works for him. We’ve moved him up pretty aggressively as there’s a story to his improvement that makes sense and he’s from a demographic that’s usually later to peak.

40 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Cal (ATL)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/50 55/55 30/55 40/35 40/50 50/50

As an amateur at Cal, Cumberland was seen as an fringe-to-average bat with above average power, questionable catcher defense, and arm strength that may push him to first base. The Braves drafted him in the second compensation round for an overslot bonus, using the pick they bought from Baltimore in exchange for Brian Matusz‘s contract. Eventually, and ironically, Atlanta traded him to Baltimore as part of the multi-player return for Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day’s contract. Since signing, Cumberland’s defense and pop times have improved, due in part to a slimmed-down physique and in part to improved throwing mechanics that make the most of his average arm strength. We think he’ll be able to catch regularly and also have enough of a bat to contribute at first base, DH, or as a pinch hitter. He’s moved down a bit for us since last season as his strong start and improved defense early in 2018 tailed off a bit later in the season, which is somewhat common for players who are dealing with physical change during the longest full-time catching spell of their career. Some scouts questioned Cumberland’s bat control and thus his hit tool and game power in late 2018 looks, so looks early in 2019 may tell us if this was a slight regression in tools, or just temporary fatigue he can get past. The likely upside looks like a valuable switch-hitting backup catcher whose bat you want to get in the lineup most days, which we value the same we would a low-end regular.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Florida State (BAL)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/55 40/40 40/45 50/50

Stewart was a standout athlete at Bolles HS in Jacksonville, where he won five state titles in baseball and football. He then went to Florida State, where he put up monstrous, well-rounded numbers, but had questionable speed and defensive ability, a squatty frame, and a squatter batting stance. Baltimore took him late in the first round in 2015 and he didn’t perform as expected until a 2017 breakout and a successful big league cup of coffee late in 2018. Stewart has slowly come out of his signature crouch more and more, as nearly every scout projected he would need to as he faced better pitching. His arm strength has improved to be about average so he can play both corner outfield spots now, though he’s a 40 runner with a 45 glove at each, so first base and DH — or a platoon role — aren’t out of the question as he ages. The power and patience are still the calling cards here, with some question on the contact upside that makes him similar to Cumberland, ranked one spot higher on this list. The likely outcome for Stewart is a good multi-positional corner platoon bat, and he may get pushed to that role as soon as late 2019, with Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays all lurking near the big leagues as better corner outfield fits with more offensive potential.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (ATL)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 30/50 50/50 40/45 55/55

Encarnacion was a bit of an afterthought when he signed for a $10,000 bonus as a 18-year-old in 2015 and became the DSL Braves everyday shortstop. By that fall’s instructional league, the Braves realized they had a prospect on their hands and acted accordingly, pushing Encarnacion to Low-A at age 20 where he put up a 118 wRC+ as an age-appropriate prospect in a full-season league, just two years after he signed for almost nothing. The change was obvious: Encarnacion’s projection and actions turned into tools with physical development. He now shows 60 raw power in BP, above average arm strength and bat control, and average speed. Encarnacion still has some skills that require growth, as his plate approach is too aggressive to work at the upper levels. And while he has the physical tools to play third base, he’s error-prone. The raw tool package and quick-developing statistical performance are a rare combo, so Encarnacion and Cumberland headlined the Orioles’ return in the Kevin Gausman trade with Atlanta last summer. It’s not a stretch to say Encarnacion has the best tools of any Latin prospect in the Orioles’ lower minors, but that’s mostly because the Orioles have had a near non-existent international program and their three best international signees (Yusniel Diaz, Encarnacion, Jean Carmona) were all acquired from rival clubs last summer.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (BAL)
Age 22.2 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 20/45 70/70 45/50 60/60

Teams had $1 million evaluations on Grenier when he was in high school, just about half a million shy of what it likely would have taken to sign him. He matriculated to Oregon State, where his abilities sufficed to push phenom Nick Madrigal over to second base. Indeed Grenier is the rare college player who scouts saw as capable of playing shortstop. He’s a plus-plus runner with a plus arm, and infield-worthy footwork and actions. Neither acrobatic nor sexy in any way, Grenier’s look as a defender, and his overall profile, has been compared to J.J. Hardy’s. Like Hardy, Grenier also has some power but his college swing likely needs to be altered for him to get to it in games. With player development now firmly ensconced in the era of swing changes, it seems reasonable to anticipate that Grenier will make some adjustments. The track record for college shortstops is not great, but Grenier has everyday tools.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Florida (OAK)
Age 24.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/50 30/40 60/60 45/50 55/55

Martin was a high profile athlete when he arrived on campus at Florida, and some scouts pegged him as the type who would go from a sub-$500,000 player in high school (basically, a talented lottery ticket) to a top two rounds guy in college, and that’s exactly what happened. Oakland took Martin in the first round when he was a plus runner with average raw power, had a good chance to stick at shortstop, and demonstrated surging contact skills. The more pessimistic projections about Martin’s bat ended up being more accurate — the speed, defense, and raw tools have held steady while he has struggled against pro pitching. In 2018, he repeated Double-A at age 23 and finally hit well, but now will jump two levels to the big leagues as the top pick in the Rule 5 Draft. Offensive expectations are low, in part because Martin has never been able to tap into his raw power in games, but also because he has needed to repeat levels to find success. That said, some clubs see these raw tools as rare even at the big league level and think there’s some low-end regular upside still here with the right coaching.

17. Zach Pop, RHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from Kentucky (LAD)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 40/45 93-97 / 99

Pop didn’t start pitching until his junior year of high school, but he was quickly into the low-90s and the Blue Jays made a late-round run at him in 2014. He didn’t sign, and instead ended up in Kentucky’s bullpen, where his velocity climbed into the mid-90s. Late in April of his junior year, Pop had forearm issues that ended his college season and drove him down draft boards, but he’s been healthy and dominant in pro ball, and had a minuscule 0.33 ERA in the Cal League before he was sent to Baltimore in the Manny Machado trade. Though he’ll occasionally snap off a plus slider, a crackling, upper-90s two-seamer is Pop’s best pitch, and he milks it for all it’s worth, throwing it nearly 70% of the time. It has devastating armside run because of his lower slot, and it’s the driving force behind his absurd 68% ground ball rate. The delivery remains a cause for concern, but of all the obvious, relief-only prospects in this system, we think Pop has the best chance to turn into a high-leverage option.

18. Blaine Knight, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Arkansas (BAL)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 55/55 45/50 45/50 91-94 / 97

Knight was an a draft eligible 21-year-old sophomore in 2017 when he starred for Arkansas, but he went in the late rounds when his high price tag didn’t match his upside on the mound, where he lacks a plus pitch. He performed about the same as a junior but had a little less leverage and opted to start his pro career when the Orioles took him in the third round. The main concern with Knight is his slight build, which makes many scouts hesitant to project him as a 180 inning starter. Everyone agrees that Knight is a performer who competes and throws four average to above pitches for strikes. He’ll hit 96 or 97 early in games then settle at 91-94 mph, relying mostly on a curveball that has a high spin rate but grades as a 55 for most scouts. Knight should perform well through the lower minors, so durability will be the main question until he hits the upper levels.

19. Cody Carroll, RHP
Drafted: 22th Round, 2015 from Southern Mississippi (NYY)
Age 26.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Splitter Command Sits/Tops
65/70 55/60 40/45 40/45 93-97 / 99

A big league ready middle relief piece, Carroll is the highest ranked prospect acquired from the Yankees in last year’s Zach Britton trade. He grew into what is now premium velocity pretty late, and was only throwing 88 in high school and 92-95 as a starter in college. Shortly after they drafted him, the Yankees moved Carroll to the bullpen and his velocity continued to climb into the upper-90s. Though he has tried several splitter grips, Carroll remains mostly a fastball/slider, single-inning reliever. He was briefly up last year and we’d be very surprised if he were list eligible next season.

20. Branden Kline, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2012 from Virginia (BAL)
Age 27.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 50/55 45/50 40/45 94-98 / 99

Kline’s story is already one of perseverance. He and his fastball have hung around through multiple surgeries and two and a half years away from an affiliated mound. In 2014, he had something of a breakout and reached Double-A as 22-year-old starter. The following spring he felt elbow discomfort, had a PRP injection that didn’t work out, and finally had Tommy John in October. He missed all of 2016 rehabbing from TJ, then had two more surgeries in 2017 to remove scar tissue. When he finally pitched again in 2018, Kline was a 26-year-old Hi-A reliever. But he was throwing in the mid-to-upper-90s, his terse, upper-80s slider was flashing plus, and Baltimore saw fit to add him to the 40-man this offseason. Given his durability issues, the only real fit is in relief and he’s ready for a big league look.

21. Lamar Sparks, CF
Drafted: 5th Round, 2017 from Seven Lakes HS (TX) (BAL)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 20/45 30/45 60/60 40/55 60/60

Twitchy and lean, Sparks looked more comfortable during his initial foray into pro ball than was expected based on his high school track record. Suddenly this raw, developmental project had feel for contact, and became one of the more interesting prospects in this system. Then Sparks missed all of 2018 — except for some time during extended spring training — due to a torn labrum. Obviously it’s not ideal for any prospect lose an entire year of development, but it’s especially bad for a prospect of this ilk for whom in-game reps are important to his development and our understanding of his abilities. And because the injury was shoulder-related, it created uncertainty around one of Sparks’ louder tools, his arm. So while we know much less about Sparks than the typical second year pro, we know enough about his athleticism, defensive profile, and the speed with which he initially adjusted to pro ball to be intrigued.

22. Hunter Harvey, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Bandys HS (NC) (BAL)
Age 24.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 45/45 40/45 93-96 / 97

Injuries have wreaked such havoc on Harvey’s career that his nine appearances in 2018 were the most he’s had in a single season since 2014. His career game log is freckled with clusters of two and three-inning rehab outings amid multiple shoulder and elbow ailments of varying severity. In 2018, Harvey injured his shoulder dodging a foul ball in the dugout, then was shut down in August with elbow discomfort as he tried to rehab back from the shoulder issue. Somehow, Harvey’s stuff is still excellent. His fastball/curveball pairing is standard late-inning fare and he’s likely to be fast tracked into a relief role immediately in the spring to give him a better shot at having big league success right away.

*Editor’s Note* The above paragraph initially indicated Harvey was out of options; he actually has two option years remaining. FanGraphs regrets the error. -EL

23. Dillon Tate, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from UC Santa Barbara (TEX)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/55 50/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

Tate’s stuff has never produced results commensurate with the visual evaluations of his pitches, especially his fastball. Though he has experienced fluctuations in velocity as a pro, even when his fastball is humming in at 93-96, it gets touched up. It has some sink but lives in a part of the strike zone that hitters seem able to handle. Tate still has the same quality breaking ball he had in college and he quickly developed a changeup in pro ball; we think he’ll need to pitch off of these very heavily in the big leagues because of his fastball’s limitations. That may be viable in a multi-inning relief role, but for now we have Tate projected as a No. 5 starter or multi-inning reliever.

24. Evan Phillips, RHP
Drafted: 17th Round, 2015 from UNC Wilmington (ATL)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 97

There’s an epidemic of baseball personnel calling one another “coach” that is believed to be derived from the lexicon of Phillips’ signing area scout. That scout finds players, coach, as Phillips is another in a long line of Braves late-round steals at smaller colleges in the Carolinas. Atlanta traded him to Baltimore in the Kevin Gausman deal last summer, during Phillips’ breakout season. Before 2018, Phillips would sit in the mid-90s, reach 97, and mix in a solid average slider, but the off-speed consistency and command weren’t strong. Both of those things ticked up in 2018 at Triple-A, but regressed during Phillips’ 11.2 inning MLB debut. Like Cody Carroll, Phillips will look to put his late summer struggles with the new club behind him and reach his upside as a middle reliever in 2019.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Logan JC (IL) (BAL)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Most talented junior college prospects end up either signing or transferring to a Division I program after a single year, but Dietz is the rare two-year JUCO prospect who stuck around for multiple seasons and still saw his draft stock soar. He’s a hulking 6-foot-5 with huge arm strength, but the rest of the profile has not progressed despite two and a half years of development as a starter. Even during starts, Dietz sits 94-97 and will touch 100. Heavy use of that pitch alone could make him a fine middle reliever, even if his slider is only average. Scouts are hesitant to project on Dietz’s secondaries because he’s a below-average athlete, but we’re curious about what the velo might do if he were just airing it out for an inning at a time.

26. Rylan Bannon, 3B
Drafted: 8th Round, 2017 from Xavier (LAD)
Age 22.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Before he was included in the package that returned Manny Machado to Los Angeles, Bannon had a scintillating 89 games in the admittedly hitter-friendly Cal League, where he slashed .296/.402/.559 with 20 homers. His exaggerated open stance is reminiscent of a right-handed Odubel Herrera, and Bannon’s power is generated by a big leg kick and a low hand load that enables him to lift the ball (35% ground ball rate, well below league average) despite a flat-planed swing. He’s vulnerable up in the strike zone and has middling bat control because of all the effort in the swing, but there is pop here. Combine that with above average plate discipline and Bannon’s chance to stay on the infield, either at second or third base, and he’s at least an intriguing bench/platoon option based on eyeball scouting reports, and perhaps more if you really buy the on-paper production.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Jacksonville (BAL)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Baumann was dominant for a month and a half at Delmarva but his strikeout rate was sawed in half after he was promoted to Hi-A Frederick. A vertical arm slot creates a tough angle on Baumann’s fastball and vertical action on his breaking stuff. It also makes it hard for him to have east/west command, and a large portion of the industry has Baumann projected to the bullpen because of this. Dissenters believe his repertoire depth (four average pitches) fits at the back of a rotation.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 183 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Carmona had such a strong 2017 summer in the DSL that the Brewers sent him to the AZL for the season’s final few weeks, where he was instantly of interest to scouts. He had flashy actions at shortstop, above average bat speed, and he made hard contact through the 2017 fall instructional league despite a long, somewhat stiff swing. When Carmona arrived in Arizona the following spring, he had filled out quite a bit, and his already middling lateral range became a larger issue. He suddenly seemed more likely to end up at third base, though he could potentially be very good there. The Brewers pushed Carmona to the Pioneer League during the summer. He struggled there, and continued to after he was traded to Baltimore in the Jonathan Schoop deal. The bat is very much a work in progress and Carmona is a risk to trend down the defensive spectrum, but he has the physical talent to be an above-average defensive third baseman with some pop if all of his issues are remedied.

29. Drew Rom, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Highlands HS (KY) (BAL)
Age 19.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

The Orioles are high on Rom, who was a late-rising projection and pitchability prep arm from Kentucky they took in the fourth round last summer. His velo was 89-92 in his better prep outings, but dipped back to his summer showcase mid-80s velocity in pro ball as a late and heavy prep workload caught up with him. Rom has room to add more weight and stabilize at that higher velocity, but his separator is a two-plane sluve (scouts differ on if it’s a slider or curve) that flashes plus along with above average feel for pitching and command projection.

30. Luis Ortiz, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Sanger HS (CA) (TEX)
Age 23.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Since his first round selection in 2014, Ortiz has bounced around to three orgs. He was part of the package Milwaukee acquired from Texas for Jonathan Lucroy, then part of the 2018 Jonathan Schoop trade with Baltimore. Layered between these trades have been several trips to the disabled list, including two consecutive seasons with time lost to hamstring issues. Ortiz has had injury issues every season dating back to his senior year of high school, and his fastball, which already plays down due to a lack of extension, was slower than usual during his brief big league debut with the Orioles last year. He profiles as a No. 5 starter, but we’ve rounded him down due to unavoidable concerns about his ability to stay healthy.

31. Jake Zebron, RHP
Drafted: 18th Round, 2018 from Colonel Richardson HS (MD) (BAL)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

It sounds like only a small subset of teams were on Zebron before the draft, and those that were hoped he’d keep a low profile on Maryland’s inconspicuous Eastern Shore. But that’s Baltimore’s back yard, and the Orioles were able to draft and sign him for $125,000. Pro scouts were intrigued by what they saw from Zebron in the fall, who was up to 93 during instructs. He’s loose, semi-projectable, and can spin a breaking ball (his curveball averages 2750 rpm, so Trackman-influenced teams are probably interested, too) but is also very raw for a 19-year-old, and he may need to spend 2019 repeating the GCL. He’s a very interesting long-term developmental project who realistically may fit at the back of a rotation.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Lefties in Their Mid-20s
Alex Wells, LHP
Chris Lee, LHP
Luis Gonzalez, LHP
Josh Rogers, LHP
Bruce Zimmermann, LHP
Cameron Bishop, LHP

Wells is an elite strike-thrower who has walked just 52 hitters in 338 career innings, but he only sits 87-92. Proponents think his curveball (which is plus) and changeup (there’s dissent as to whether it really plays off of a 35 fastball) are good enough for Wells to lean on and pitch at the back of a rotation. Lee has shown typical lefty bullpen stuff at times (up to 97, above-average slider, cutter) but has also dealt with a myriad of injuries (shoulder, lat, oblique). He’s legally blind in his right eye but has been since birth, so it’s not really an issue. Gonzalez, 27, also has a 55 fastball/slider combination and we’re not sure why Baltimore hasn’t pushed him to the big leagues yet. His stuff ticked way up in 2017 and has been good for two years now. Rogers was part of the Britton deal and may open 2019 in the O’s rotation. He sits 88-91 and has an above-average changeup. Zimmermann has several average pitches and projects as a No. 5 to 7 starter. Bishop has been up to 94 with four average pitches in the past, but his stuff was down last year.

The One International Prospect
Edidson Rojas, 3B
Itchy Xu, DH

This is the only international player on this list who was signed by Baltimore. He’s a two-year DSL prospect who turns 20 in May. He has average bat speed, a frame that likely projects to third base, and a pretty, low-ball, left-handed swing. Xu (pronounced like ‘shoe’) isn’t really a prospect but is of note because he’s one of few players in pro ball from China. For all the flack the Orioles have rightfully received for their aloof international approach, they deserve some credit for poking around China, which due to the size of its population alone, probably has more athletes capable of baseball than are currently being developed.

Corner Guys Who Must Rake
Jomar Reyes, 3B
J.C. Escarra, 1B
Robert Neustrom, RF

Jomar finally performed during an injury-shortened 2017, then struggled again in 2018. He still has monster raw power and a 70 arm, and we think he’s worth monitoring especially because he might be getting something resembling a fresh start now that the org has new leadership. Neustrom was a two-year Big Ten performer with plus raw power and a bunch of average other tools, but he has very limited bat control. Escarra missed time with a shoulder issue and 45 or 50 hit, 55 power at first doesn’t quite get there, but he also has a chance to be a plus defender at the position.

Up the Middle Depth
Martin Cervenka, C
Steve Wilkerson, UTIL
Alexis Torres, SS

Cleveland signed Cervenka, 26, out of the Czech Republic way back in 2011 and he has bounced around to a few teams on waivers and as a minor league free agent, but he’s gotten much better behind the plate and is now a 45 defender with a 45 arm and 55 raw power. He could be a third catcher. Wilkerson, 27, missed some of 2018 due to an amphetamine suspension and more of it due to oblique and hamstring issues. He has above average bat control and is a 40 defender at several positions. He may get a utility look in 2019. Alexis Torres is a 21-year-old who is a defensive fit at shortstop. His lack of physicality has been questioned, but he looked better with the bat late last summer.

System Overview

The Orioles had some pretty clear issues to sort through as the 2018 season ended. It was widely assumed that GM Dan Duquette and/or manager Buck Showalter wouldn’t be returning, and that a number of personnel and long-term organizational issues were likely to be to dealt with. But questions remained. Would the new head of baseball operations have the autonomy to kickstart the non-existent international program? Would they get to rebuild everything, from the big league roster down to the analytics, scouting, and player development staffs, or would ownership insist that the new GM make a foolhardy attempt to compete?

Ownership now appears to be driven more by Peter Angelos’ sons than by the elder Angelos himself, and answers to these questions became more clear when they hired former Astros assistant GM Mike Elias to be the new Orioles GM. Elias brought with him a new analytical chief in curiosity king Sig Mejdal, and it’s safe to assume the rebuild will have structural similarities to the Astros’, with various departments all getting facelifts as part of the effort.

Of the 32 players we’ve ranked above, 18 are either freshly drafted or were acquired from other clubs since last summer, a parting gift from the previous leadership. Before Duquette got the okay to start a sell-off, this was a big league club that had little chance to contend and also a bottom five farm system, and we think he and his staff did an admirable job restocking the farm ahead of the deadline. 12 of the 24 prospects ranked 40 FV or better (those with notably positive trade value) were in the org before this time and the system, minus the summer’s draft and trades, would’ve ranked in a tie for 27th in baseball. We haven’t ranked farm systems yet this winter, but it would appear this system is about 20th at the moment.

And there’s still plenty of upward mobility here. There are a couple more trades to be made (Mychal Givens would seem the most obvious premium talent likely to move), the O’s have the first overall pick in June’s draft, and they may add international talent with the most remaining pool space in the ’18-’19 period. Sources indicate that the hire of Koby Perez to run the international program means the Orioles are going to be immediate players for top prospects in that market, and they have the bonus hammer to wield over the next 18 months across two bonus periods as they see fit. Elias has a lot of things to do in his first year, but the main focus has to be building a data and communication infrastructure for the org while also accumulating assets, something the Astros did better than anyone during the first few years of their organizational overhaul.


Top 54 Prospects: Tampa Bay Rays

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Tampa Bay Rays. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Rays Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Wander Franco 17.9 R SS 2021 65
2 Brendan McKay 23.1 A+ LHP/1B 2019 60
3 Brent Honeywell 23.8 AAA RHP 2019 55
4 Vidal Brujan 21.0 A+ 2B 2021 55
5 Brandon Lowe 24.5 AAA 2B 2019 50
6 Jesus Sanchez 21.3 AA RF 2020 50
7 Ronaldo Hernandez 21.2 A C 2022 50
8 Matthew Liberatore 19.2 R LHP 2022 50
9 Nick Solak 24.0 AA 2B 2020 50
10 Shane Baz 19.6 R RHP 2022 50
11 Lucius Fox 21.6 AA SS 2021 45+
12 Nathaniel Lowe 23.5 AAA 1B 2019 45+
13 Moises Gomez 20.4 A RF 2022 45
14 Joe McCarthy 24.9 AAA LF 2019 45
15 Josh Lowe 21.0 A+ CF 2021 45
16 Taylor Walls 22.5 A SS 2020 45
17 Resly Linares 21.1 A LHP 2021 45
18 Anthony Banda 25.4 MLB LHP 2019 45
19 Nick Schnell 18.8 R CF 2022 45
20 Shane McClanahan 21.7 R LHP 2020 45
21 Tyler Frank 22.0 A- 2B 2021 45
22 Jose De Leon 26.5 MLB RHP 2019 40+
23 Drew Strotman 22.4 A RHP 2020 40+
24 Colin Poche 25.0 AAA LHP 2019 40+
25 Garrett Whitley 21.9 A CF 2021 40+
26 Tanner Dodson 21.7 A- RHP/CF 2021 40+
27 Jelfry Marte 17.8 R SS 2023 40
28 Alejandro Pie 16.4 None SS 2024 40
29 Tobias Myers 20.5 A RHP 2022 40
30 Ian Gibaut 25.2 AAA RHP 2019 40
31 Michael Perez 26.5 MLB C 2019 40
32 Joe Peguero 21.7 R RHP 2022 40
33 Nick Ciuffo 23.9 AAA C 2020 40
34 Matt Krook 24.3 AA LHP 2019 40
35 Alberto Figuereo 18.7 R 2B 2023 40
36 Ryan Boldt 24.2 AA LF 2020 40
37 Curtis Taylor 23.5 AA RHP 2020 40
38 Chris Betts 21.9 A C 2021 40
39 Abiezel Ramirez 19.0 R SS 2023 40
40 Kean Wong 23.8 AAA 2B 2019 40
41 Tristan Gray 22.8 A+ 2B 2020 40
42 Jermaine Palacios 22.5 AA SS 2020 40
43 Orlando Romero 22.3 A+ RHP 2020 40
44 Miguel Lara 21.5 R RHP 2022 40
45 Michael Mercado 19.8 A- RHP 2022 40
46 Sandy Gaston 17.1 None RHP 2023 40
47 Austin Franklin 21.3 A RHP 2021 35+
48 Ford Proctor 22.1 A- SS 2022 35+
49 Osmy Gregorio 20.7 A- SS 2022 35+
50 Taj Bradley 17.8 R RHP 2023 35+
51 Matthew Peguero 19.0 R RHP 2023 35+
52 Grant Witherspoon 22.3 R RF 2021 35+
53 Edgardo Rodriguez 18.1 R C 2023 35+
54 Victor Munoz 18.1 R RHP 2023 35+

65 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 17.9 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr S / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/65 60/65 30/55 60/60 45/50 60/60

Franco was identified as a top tier player in his age group as early as 12 or 13, and was seen regularly by scouts by age 14. Sometimes, precocious prospects are workout warriors or have early physical peaks, but Franco isn’t either of those. He essentially hasn’t failed on a baseball field in any meaningful way since puberty, with his success punctuated by a 2018 pro debut in which he outpaced the game’s most recent phenom, No. 1 overall prospect Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., in just about every way, at the same level, at the same age. Franco signed for the largest bonus in the 2017 July 2nd class ($3.825 million) and was seen as the best player in the class by a good margin. There were some questions about his occasionally disinterested style of play as an amateur, but he likely already had a deal done and didn’t have anything to play for in later workouts. He’s literally always been the best player on any field he’s been on, usually by a lot. The raw tools are accordingly loud, and match his stats: at least a plus hit tool with explosive bat speed, elite bat and body control, and an advanced sense of the zone to go along with plus raw power, plus speed, a plus arm, and a real chance to stick at shortstop. Franco is about as close as you’ll see to a perfect prospect at this point, with questions only arising if you really nitpick — the main one being that Franco isn’t tall — but he already has huge power, so it matters less that he isn’t physically projectable. The Rays have indicated they will start Franco at Low-A in 2019 and, so long as he keeps performing, keep pushing him until he’s challenged so he can experience adversity before he reaches the big leagues. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Franco move across multiple levels, but we wouldn’t expect quite a Juan Soto-esque pace of promotion, and a 2019 MLB debut seems incredibly unlikely, given the Rays’ upper-level infield glut and the service time implications. Rays officials have likened their immediate impression of Franco, as a player and person, to Evan Longoria. Teammates respond to him, and there isn’t even a whiff of the makeup concern some scouts conjured up as an amateur. Franco seems to be the sole author of his potential at this point.

60 FV Prospects

2. Brendan McKay, LHP/1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Louisville (TBR)
Age 23.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 212 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 65/65 40/55 35/30 45/50 60/60
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 50/55 50/55 55/60 91-95 / 96

McKay was a cold-weather, two-way high school prospect with average tools. As is the case with many Louisville commits, his asking price was high. He got to campus and took such an immediate step forward that he was invited to play for college Team USA after just his freshman year. His tools steadily progressed and entering his draft spring, McKay was showing effortless 65-grade raw power, and above-average raw stuff on the mound. On draft day, we think a slight majority of teams preferred McKay as a hitter (the two of us were split). But every MLB team had him as a first round talent both ways, so it seemed inevitable that he would be the rare player who would get a chance to do both in pro ball so his team could at least have time to determine which path was the right one if he couldn’t do both. That open-minded approach has driven how Tampa Bay has developed McKay. In 2018, his offense was fine — he was unlucky by advanced and TrackMan metrics — while he really broke out as a pitcher, regularly showing all the best stuff that he had only flashed in college. McKay leaned on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and didn’t have trouble navigating lineups because of his above average to plus command of the pitch. A plus-flashing curveball is his best secondary offering, but his cutter and changeup are both above-average, giving him No. 2 or 3 starter upside, and he’s not a long way off from reaching it. Shohei Ohtani’s usage is the only precedent for how McKay might be handled: a standout, playoff rotation-caliber starter and DH. Given how baseball is valuing first base/DH players, there appears to be much more value on the mound for McKay, but there’s still a real chance he turns into something like a 110 wRC+ hitter who could make a club just on the merits of his hitting and fielding ability as a first baseman, and scouts have always raved about his makeup and work ethic. The most exciting scenario would be if Tampa Bay paired him with a two-way righty (they currently have one in Tanner Dodson and are rumored to be adding a second in Matt Davidson) and pull the gambit Joe Maddon has tried before: rotating righty and lefty pitchers between the mound and a spot in the field based on the matchups. It could be an effective strategy on its own while enabling roster flexibility in other areas, and it saves matchup relievers until later in the game. Of course, nobody wants the Rays to get too cute and spoil what might just be a traditional, mid-rotation profile.

55 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Walters State JC (TN) (TBR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Splitter Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 50/55 60/65 55/55 45/50 45/55 92-94 / 97

Honeywell felt forearm tightness while throwing live batting practice to Wilson Ramos in late February, and five days later Dr. James Andrews was reconstructing his UCL. It was the first of several season-ending injuries Rays prospects would sustain early in the year, and it delayed Honeywell’s run at a potential Rookie of the Year award. A creative sequencer, Honeywell’s deep, unique repertoire is unlike any other pitcher in the minors. Though his fastball touches 98, his stuff is so diverse that he never has to pitch off of it. He can lob his curveball in for strikes, induce weak contact early in counts by throwing a cutter when hitters are sitting fastball, and he’ll double and triple up on the changeup. What you see listed in Honeywell’s tool grades as a splitter is actually a screwball. It wobbles home in the 79-82 mph range, while his true changeup is usually a little harder than that. The screwgie is more than a gimmick and can miss bats, though it’s best in moderation because it’s a little easier to identify out of his hand, and hitters are able to recognize it after seeing it multiple times in the same at-bat. Honeywell’s delivery is pretty violent and his TJ was not his first injury, but he’s ready and has No. 2 or 3 starter stuff if it comes back after the surgery. He has been throwing off a mound since early December and should be pitching in games before April is through.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.0 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr S / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 45/50 30/45 65/65 50/60 55/55

Five years ago, Brujan was illiterate and living in extreme poverty in the Dominican Republic. Now he’s fluent in multiple languages and has grown so much as an athlete and ballplayer that we think he’d be in the conversation for the 2019 draft’s first pick were he a college player. If you’re willing to look beyond Brujan’s diminutive stature, he leaves nothing to be desired. He is an elite athlete with acute baseball instincts, a dynamic up-the-middle defensive profile, and mature feel for the strike zone. He has always been physical enough to make quality contact and fast enough to make an impact on the bases, but really began driving the ball in 2018 as his frame started to physically mature. He slashed .313/.395/.427 at Low-A before an August promotion to Hi-A, where he slugged a shocking .582. Aside from his size, Brujan’s profile is flawless and he has a chance to be a star.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Maryland (TBR)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 45/55 50/50 40/45 45/45

Lowe (pronounced with a vowel sound like ‘plow’ or ‘allow’) was an under-the-radar, bat-first prospect at Maryland who the Rays picked in the third round. He has always been a second baseman but was never the pedigree type given his position and average at best speed, defense, and arm. He also tore his ACL as a freshman. His indicators were positive–plate discipline, contact skills, bat speed, enough power to profile–and we were high on Lowe entering the year, pegging him as a 45 FV. He went off in 2018, following a fine Double-A look in 2017 by demolishing the level in 2018, then performing even better at Triple-A, earning a big league look, where he put up almost 1.0 WAR in just 43 games. The offense has taken off even more than those highest on him internally had expected, with some chance for 50 hit and 60 game power with passable defense at second, along with versatility to play left field and possibly first base if needed. Lowe is now in the weird prospect spot where he isn’t the highly-drafted, tooled-up brand name type you typically find in the middle of a top 100, but he’s about as low risk a bat as there is with prospect eligibility, and he can also play up the middle, so his six years of control have tons of value to a small market team like the Rays.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/65 30/55 50/50 50/55 60/60

Corner bats with 30-grade plate discipline are scary, but Sanchez has the talent to override his impatience and so far he has performed in spite of it. In possession of a picturesque swing and some of the most electric bat speed in the minors, Sanchez has a .306/.347/.478 career line over four pro seasons, and he’s been young for each of the levels to which he has been assigned. As awestruck as his swing leaves onlookers, it is imperfect and causes him to drive the ball into the ground about 50% of the time. He hits it so hard that it hasn’t mattered yet, and it may not be prudent to tweak Sanchez’s swing so long as he keeps performing, but the ceiling on his power output is huge if his bat path gets dialed in. This is a pretty traditional right field profile, instability and all, and Sanchez has a chance to hit at the heart of a big league lineup. He got a taste of Double-A late last year and should return there in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Colombia (TBR)
Age 21.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/50 35/30 40/50 70/70

Hernandez’s career got off to a slow start in part due to his conversion (he was originally a SS/3B who the Rays asked to catch) but also due to injury, which cost him much of his first pro season. He so dominated the DSL in his second go at it that the Rays had him skip the GCL and sent him right to Princeton the following year. The last two seasons, Hernandez has slugged .500 as a young-for-the-level regular, and he was one homer off the Midwest League lead in 2018. He has above average raw power and sufficient feel to hit that he’ll get to most of it, certainly enough to profile at catcher. While Hernandez is still a below average receiver and inconsistent ball-blocker, he shows enough aptitude for both to project that he’ll be an average defender at maturity, and he has run-stopping arm strength. He’s a top 100 prospect.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Mountain Ridge HS (AZ) (TBR)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 45/50 55/70 50/55 40/55 92-95 / 97

Oakland’s selection of Kyler Murray seems to have been the catalyst for Liberatore’s draft day slide. He was arguably the best high school pitcher in the class, evaluated heavily early on by the Giants (who picked second), before settling into the 7-13 range by June. When Murray was selected, teams picking behind Oakland suddenly had access to one more player than they had anticipated. It meant Travis Swaggerty was there for Pittsburgh at 10, which meant Grayson Rodriguez was there for Baltimore at 11, and so on. Other teams hadn’t considered the possibility that Libby would fall to them and either hadn’t done a lot of background work, or weren’t comfortable with how he might alter their bonus pool math. When Liberatore was at his best, he’d throw strikes with 93-97 for the first several innings of his starts, show you a 70 curveball, a good change, and alter the timing of his delivery to toy with hitters. He added a slider part way through his junior year and instantly had nascent feel for it. At other times, he’d sit 88-92 with scattershot command and get too cute with Johnny Cuetoshenanigans. But the frame, athleticism, arm strength, and ability to spin are all ideal, and there’s immense ceiling here.

9. Nick Solak, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Louisville (NYY)
Age 24.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/50 30/45 60/60 45/50 50/50

Solak was a college teammate of Brendan McKay’s at Louisville, and they’ve both drawn some of the most vociferous makeup raves from scouts of any of the players in the minors. There’s a story going around scouting circles that Solak actually broke one club’s makeup algorithm, scoring higher than they thought was possible. It’s probably not surprising to hear that he’s a grinder type of player who makes the most of his sneaky-good tools. Solak has a pretty level cut, but is an opportunistic enough hitter to know how to lift mistake pitches and use his deceptively-average raw power. He’s a plus runner who projects to play an average second base and be an everyday player, but he can play almost any other position on the field if needed, with an arm that’s just a bit shy of what’s preferred for shortstop. He put up a 19 home run, 21 stolen base season in Triple-A last year and would be penciled in as a top prospect about to be handed an everyday job for almost any other club, but the Rays are insanely well stocked with middle infielders, including arguably the best in the minor leagues in Wander Franco; Vidal Brujan is also ahead of Solak on this list. The Rays like to have a versatile big league roster, but there’s likely a trade coming at some point to clear out spots, with Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Matt Duffy, Yandy Diaz, Daniel Robertson, and Christian Arroyo all seemingly ahead of Solak in the running for three starting spots since first base and designated hitter are also fully manned.

10. Shane Baz, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Concordia Lutheran HS (TX) (PIT)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 40/50 55/60 40/45 92-96 / 98

Other than players who qualify under outdated rules about trading recent draftees, we can’t think of a Player to be Named Later who had a stronger evaluation at the time of trade than Baz, who was part of the Chris Archer deal. The tightly-wound Baz has a repertoire tailored like Marcus Stroman’s: it’s four or five pitches, everything is hard, and his best stuff has glove-side action. Pitchers can succeed without changeups provided their breaking balls give them the tools to deal with opposite-handed hitters. Often, that’s enabled by command. Baz’s delivery is explosive but violent, and he may never have average command, let alone the command necessary to succeed without a change of pace pitch, or something to bisect the plate to his arm side. There’s a chance he’s a reliever but with three plus pitches, he could be elite in that role. If the command and/or a changeup develop, he fits in the middle of a rotation.

45+ FV Prospects

11. Lucius Fox, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Bahamas (SFG)
Age 21.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 35/40 30/40 70/70 45/50 55/55

It wasn’t that long ago that being an international amateur free agent could be more lucrative than subjecting oneself to the domestic draft. Several players with family abroad moved away and reclassified. Fox, who is of Bahamian descent, netted the most lucrative of these deals, signing with San Francisco for $6 million. The industry was surprised when the Giants immediately sent Fox, who was a tantalizing athlete but an undercooked ballplayer, to full-season ball. He didn’t play well, and was traded to Tampa Bay for Matt Moore a few minutes ahead of the 2016 trade deadline. When the Rays performed a post-swap physical on Fox, they discovered a bone bruise in his foot that would end his season, a matter the two clubs settled after the Rays initially sought further compensation. Fox repeated Low-A the following year and started to perform some with the bat. He’s hit for high averages wth no power each of the last two years, and had a strong 2018 Fall League. The lack of power might prevent Fox from being a true average or better regular, and he remains inconsistent on defense, but he’s a top of the scale athlete whose late 2018 showing could be a sign of real growth. If he comes out in 2019 and performs well, we’ll buy it.

Drafted: 13th Round, 2016 from Mississippi State (TBR)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 65/65 50/60 40/35 45/50 50/50

Lowe was nearly anonymous as a prospect until 2018. He played at a high profile Atlanta-area high school (the same one as his brother Josh, who the Rays drafted in first round in 2016), played sparingly for a year at Mercer, then transferred to St. John’s River junior college in Jacksonville, FL, where he hit 17 homers, a feat that got him to Mississippi State for his junior season. He had a solid season for the Bulldogs but was a first base-only prospect with no pedigree who hit five home runs, so you can see why he lasted until the 13th round in the 2016 draft. His hitability translated well that first pro summer and in 2017, which he split across both A-Ball levels at ages 21 and 22. The missing element here is that while Lowe had plus raw power the first time we saw him at Mississippi State, he didn’t have the kind of swing or approach to get the most out of it. This untapped tool and his plate discipline are the reasons he was a 13th rounder and not a 35th rounder who went back to school for his senior year. In 2018, Lowe did a rare thing: he tried to do more damage at the plate and lift the ball a bit more, but was able to keep his contact rates the same while adding game power. Miguel Andujar did this in the Yankees farm system two years in a row and went from an untapped, toolsy prospect who was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft to a Rookie of the Year runner-up; Lowe went from the top of the ‘Others of Note’ section last year to one of the top 150 prospects in the game over a 12 month period. Lowe is a fine defender at first but the value here is all in the bat. Because he’s left-handed, the downside is a platoon option at 1B/DH, though the Rays cycle through those types very quickly. Underlying indicators and TrackMan data suggest Lowe’s very loud 2018 stats aren’t fluky and he may just be a 50 bat with advanced feel for the zone and 60 game power, which is a solid regular. He might be big league ready in the middle of 2019.

45 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 20.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 35/55 55/50 45/50 55/55

Gomez was a plus-running center field prospect when he signed, but over four seasons, his body has matured in a way that is more Wily Mo Pena than Willy Taveras. He has already moved to a corner and might be limited to left field, but with that heft came power and a 2018 statistical breakout (65 extra-base hits) at Low-A Bowling Green. Gomez has below-average plate discipline, and that kind of flaw in a player near the bottom of the defensive spectrum is pretty scary, because it means both the hit and power tools need to develop into plusses for Gomez to clear the overall offensive bar at his position. There’s enough thump here for that, though we’ll have to wait and see on the bat.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2015 from Virginia (TBR)
Age 24.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/55 55/55 40/50 40/40 50/50 50/50

McCarthy might be this decade’s Nick Johnson. He has limited physical ability but exceptional secondary skills, and a concerning injury history. In college, McCarthy missed several weeks of his junior year due to back surgery, and in 2018, he had back issues again, which cost him several months. His Fall League stint ended prematurely due to a fractured hand. Amid these injuries, McCarthy has reached base at .390 career rate and climbed to Triple-A Durham. He has sufficient physical tools to hit, just not for stardom, and we expect him to be a role playing 1B/OF who yields value on par with a low-end regular, assuming he can stay healthy.

15. Josh Lowe, CF
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Pope HS (GA) (TBR)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 30/45 60/60 45/50 60/60

Lowe was on the draft radar as a prep junior in the Atlanta area when he ran his heater up to 95 mph in a high profile playoff game 13 months before he was draft eligible. Throughout the summer, scouts realized that he was a clear top five round talent on the mound, but a truly elite prospect at the plate. Lowe flashed plus speed, a plus arm, and plus raw power from the left side, projecting as the rare big center fielder with hit and power tools. The concern was that Lowe’s uphill, aggressive, power-oriented cut would limit his contact rate; after the Rays took him in the first round, his swing plane was flatter. In 2018, Lowe’s older brother and fellow Rays farmhand, Nate, shockingly went from fringe prospect to passing his more famous sibling in prospect status. Josh hasn’t put the loft back in his game swing, so he doesn’t look much different than the No. 1 overall pick from his draft class, Phillies center fielder Mickey Moniak. Both posted solid, contact-oriented offensive seasons in the Florida State League at age 20 while playing a solid center field. The difference is that Lowe has plus raw power he could tap back into, while Moniak may eventually grow into just average raw power. Lowe is ticketed for Double-A in 2019 and has a very laid back demeanor, which can turn off some scouts, though others see it as a sign he can handle the grind of the game and break through like his older brother did last year.

16. Taylor Walls, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Florida State (TBR)
Age 22.5 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 50/55 50/50

If you want to get a sense of the depth of the Rays middle infield, take a look at the end of the Nick Solak report (ninth on this list). It’s a testament to Walls’ breakout 2018 season that he’s even in that conversation, as many scouts thought the Rays had drastically overdrafted him in the third round out of Florida State in 2017. Walls played second base in college and had an all-fields, spray approach with little power but excellent pitch selection and plate discipline. He was getting pegged as a non-impact type, the sort of backup second baseman the likes of which teams don’t carry anymore; his best ability (pitch selection) wasn’t even a tool, and it didn’t matter much if he didn’t have any power. Most of that changed in 2018 as the Rays’ strategy of drafting players projected as second baseman and seeing if they can play shortstop worked out, with Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics grading Walls at +16 runs over 103 games, about as high of a number as you’ll see in the minor leagues. Scouts tended to agree that Walls was above average at the position, more due to angles and instincts than raw tools, and this development seemed to surprise even the Rays. Offensively, Walls started driving the ball more and doing some extra base damage when he was getting into good counts. The raw tools are still mostly average and he was 22 years old in Low-A, a function of the Rays’ middle infield depth blocking a deserved promotion, so there isn’t amazing upside here. That said, a player many scouts thought was an overdraft now looks like he has a solid shot to turn into a good utility guy or low-end regular just 18 months later.

17. Resly Linares, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/55 45/55 90-93 / 95

Even though Linares’ frame hasn’t filled out very much since he teenage days, his velocity has climbed. Loose and spindly, the low-slot lefty now sports a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s. Linares uses his curveball to attack both left and right-handed hitters, and his lack of changeup development to this point is the chief reason why he may project to the bullpen, where he may throw even harder and turn into something resembling Felipe Vasquez. We like lanky, athletic pitchers with feel for spin. Though there are clear things to work on, Linares is one of those. He should spend 2019 at Hi-A.

18. Anthony Banda, LHP
Drafted: 10th Round, 2012 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (MIL)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/50 40/45 50/55 40/45 92-95 / 97

Banda has been traded twice — Milwaukee sent him and Mitch Haniger to Arizona for Gerardo Parra in 2014, and then in 2018, Banda was part of the massive, three-team trade involving Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, among others — and finally looked like he’d get a long-term big league look in 2018. He was ten innings shy of exhausting rookie eligibility when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John in early June. It’s an awkwardly-timed surgery that might keep Banda out for all of 2019 as he recovers. He has No. 4 starter stuff when healthy, but we may not see it in the big leagues again until Banda is 26.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Roncalli HS (IN) (TBR)
Age 18.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 25/50 60/60 40/50 60/60

Schnell was an upside, cold-weather hitter to watch in the 2018 draft class but he exceeded expectations in the spring, rising into discussions for the middle of the first round. He landed near the top of a group of top-tier toolsy outfielders, flashing plus raw power, speed, and arm strength. He also went on a tear down the stretch in the Illinois state playoffs when high-level scouts were coming in for looks, hitting homer after homer. Some scouts were still uncertain about Schnell’s ultimate upside, arguing that his style of hitting indicates a swing flaw. To possess premium bat speed and face pitching in the 80s and still hit opposite field homers indicates Schnell was late on subpar stuff, and his deep hand load (which helps create the power) means this approach and his ultimate upside might not work in pro ball. While it’s too early to pass judgment on that opinion, Schnell struggled against good pitching in his pro debut and in instructional league, often exhibiting poor timing and ending up late on good fastballs. The Rays aren’t worried — expectations for cold-weather hitters are close to nil in their pro debut, not only because of the big jump in competition but also because they’re playing the longest season of their lives. Schnell may start 2019 in extended spring training so the org can keep a close eye on his habits and challenges in a controlled environment, but his upside is still among the best in his draft class.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from USF (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 173 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/55 45/50 40/45 92-95 / 100

McClanahan was barely seen the summer before his senior year in high school, pitching in the low-to-mid-80s in the lightly-scouted southwest corner of Florida, and committed to a smaller mid-major school. In his senior spring, things starting changing; he was getting into the low-90s, but it was still raw enough and abrupt enough of a change that it made sense for McClanahan to go to school, now at South Florida. He had another velo bump early in his college career, which eventually led to Tommy John surgery. Buzz grew in scouting circles as his post-surgery stuff was elite and after his first start of 2018, a heavily-scouted matchup with North Carolina, McClanahan looked like a top five overall pick. In that game, he hit 100 mph and flashed an above average slider and changeup along with enough feel to project as a starter. From then on, things started to unravel, until the Rays popped the local kid 31st overall. McClanahan had some minor issues — a finger injury and fluctuating velo as weather and workload dictated — but more worrisome to scouts were both his maturity and how he fared when his fastball was more of a 6 than an 8, and his command was a 3 or 4 instead of a 5. Most college pitchers can succeed with 55 or 60 stuff and below average command, but McClanahan struggled and showed it on the mound. The optimistic case is that a change of scenery, coaching, and workload (with less pressure) will help tease out that top five overall pick version of McClanahan, while the pessimistic case is that what we saw down the stretch is indicative of a future as a streaky power reliever with limited feel.

21. Tyler Frank, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Florida Atlantic (TBR)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/45 30/40 50/50 45/50 45/45

Frank was first seen by most scouts as a utility player on college Team USA the summer before he was draft eligible. He didn’t stand out much there, playing all over the field and making contact, but lacking impact tools. He shined much brighter in the spring for Florida Atlantic, with just shy of a 1.000 OPS and 13 homers while playing a passable shortstop. The setting in which you scout a player can do wonders and the Team USA look didn’t give Frank much of chance to show what he could do. Scouts who saw Frank in pro ball, after the Rays popped him in the second round, see a slightly lesser version of Taylor Walls, another under-tooled Rays middle infielder with lots of feel. Frank is seen as more of a second baseman going forward and his 45 raw power, 50 speed, and 50 defense still aren’t loud, but his ability to hit, take a good at-bat, and have advanced feel for the game give Frank the look of a potential low-end regular who could move quickly through the minors.

40+ FV Prospects

22. Jose De Leon, RHP
Drafted: 24th Round, 2013 from Southern (LA)
Age 26.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/45 50/50 60/60 50/55 90-92 / 94

Acquired from Los Angeles for Logan Forsythe, De Leon has basically lost the last two years to poor arm health. He had intermittent injury issues throughout 2017 — flexor mass discomfort, a lat strain, elbow tendinitis — and needed Tommy John during 2018 Spring Training. He’s been throwing bullpens and is on track to return sometime in the middle of 2019. It’s unclear if the drop in velocity De Leon exhibited betwixt his DL stints was due to injury or if that’s just how hard he throws now. At his prospect peak in Los Angeles, when De Leon struck out no fewer than 32% of opposing hitters over a three-season stretch, he was sitting 92-94, and touching 96. Though there’s less stigma surrounding drop-and-drive deliveries now, there was concern about De Leon’s fastball being liftable even at that velocity due to it’s plane. At his more recent 89-91, it’s more worrisome. But if the velocity comes back, De Leon will have two plus pitches in his fastball and a goofy changeup, which has weird, horizontal action. He throws a ton of strikes and has two viable breaking balls. He could be a No. 3 or 4 starter if everything comes back, but is more like a No. 5 if it doesn’t.

23. Drew Strotman, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2017 from St. Mary’s (TBR)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 50/55 45/50 45/50 92-95 / 97

In many ways, the first half of Strotman’s 2018 season was just like that of Phillies righty Spencer Howard, who’s now in the overall top 100 picture because his stuff exploded late in the year. Like Howard, Strotman mostly pitched out of the bullpen at a second tier California college and only began starting full time in 2018. He was probably slightly underscouted as an amateur, and definitely underdeveloped. For a month and a half of 2018, he showed mid-rotation stuff, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John. He may not be back in affiliated ball until late next summer, but he was quite young for a college draftee (another trait he shares with Howard) and has more developmental wiggle room for a setback like this than most of his peers would. He’s a 2019 Arizona Fall League breakout candidate.

24. Colin Poche, LHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2016 from Dallas Baptist (ARI)
Age 25.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
65/70 50/55 50/55 90-93 / 94

It’s pretty common for pitchers to have a delivery that accentuates their stuff, and often, it’s easy to detect with the naked eye. This is not so for Poche, whose mechanical sleight of hand is not visually obvious, but whose success with what appears to be a mediocre fastball is unmatched in the minors. Poche has somehow managed to generate elite swinging strike rates with fringe fastball velocity and a spin rate that’s shy of average. Scouts and colleagues have asserted that Poche hides the ball well, only showing it to hitters when it suddenly appears out from behind his head. Poche also generates elite down-mound extension and fastball rise. His pitches not only make hitters look uncomfortable, they sometimes sneak up on the catcher, too. Essentially, Poche has an average fastball with three separate characteristics that make it play up. Big league hitters may be less vulnerable to one or more of these characteristics, but if not, Poche’s fastball is going to play like a 7 or 8, and he could be a top 50 big league reliever.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Niskayuna HS (NY) (TBR)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 30/50 60/60 40/50 55/55

The Dave Stewart Dbacks regime purportedly considered Whitley for the 2015 draft’s first pick, which seemed ill-advised given how blatantly risky both Whitley and his draft demographic were and are (raw, cold-weather prep outfielders can be Mike Trout or Anthony Hewitt). He fell to pick 13. As a pro, Whitley has become a power and patience center field prospect. He owns a 12% career walk rate and in 2017 started tapping into power thanks to a swing change. He was a candidate for a 2018 national breakout, but got hurt during spring training and missed the entire season while recovering from labrum surgery. The injury ate an important year of Whitley’s development, and also created risk that he has to move to left field if his arm strength doesn’t return (he began throwing a baseball again in late August). Just as he was starting to answer a lot of the pre-draft questions, a bunch of new ones were introduced, but we’re still enamored with Whitley’s physical gifts and upside. He’ll likely begin 2019 at Hi-A.

26. Tanner Dodson, RHP/CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Cal (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 20/40 55/55 45/50 60/60
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 55/60 45/50 40/45 92-96 / 98

Dodson’s father, Bo, hit .288/.397/.436 as a 10-year minor league first baseman, and may have gotten a shot had he played during an era that better appreciated his on base skills, or had he not been blocked by John Jaha in ’95 and Mo Vaughn in ’96. Tanner is a totally different baseball entity, standing apart not just from his father but from the rest of the minors, and access to such a unique skillset is partly what motivated the curious Rays to draft him in the second round in 2018. Dodson was Cal’s two-hole hitter, starting center fielder, and closer. If forced to chose a traditional developmental path, teams would have overwhelmingly preferred Dodson on the mound, where his stuff is commensurate with a typical middle reliever. But he is also a plus-running switch-hitter, with some natural lift as a right-handed hitter and good barrel control as a lefty. The Rays want to take advantage of all of Dodson’s skills and asked that he be announced on draft day as a two-way player. At Cal, Dodson would often warm up his arm in center field, sometimes very little, before coming in to pitch in save situations. In pro ball, he pitched once every seven days, would have a bullpen day at the midpoint between outings, and either DH or play CF on the other days. Developing as a two-way player is actually less labor intensive than existing as one in college, where Dodson’s schedule was more variable. Neither of Dodson’s individual roles projects to be ones of impact. On the mound, he looks like a middle reliever; with the bat, he looks like a fourth outfielder. But if he performs like a standard 40-inning reliever, like Jacob Barnes, and quintessential fourth outfielder, like Travis Jankowski, he’ll generate a combined 1.5 to 2 WAR annually.

40 FV Prospects

27. Jelfry Marte, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 17.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 150 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 40/50 20/40 60/60 50/60 60/60

Marte originally signed for $3 million with the Twins as one of the top position players in the 2017 July 2nd class. That deal was voided over concerns about Marte’s vision, but those concerns weren’t as strong as they were with the last prospect who went through a situation like this, Dominican power-hitting right fielder Wagner Mateo. Mateo signed for $3.1 million with St. Louis in 2009, and after his deal was voided, signed with Arizona for $512,000 almost a year later. Mateo played parts of four seasons before being released by Arizona, only playing 10 games in a full-season league with a career .660 OPS. Marte ended up signing with Tampa Bay less than a month after his deal was voided, this time for $820,000; Tampa Bay sees his vision as a correctable issue that’s already shown improvement, adding strength to his eyes like you would to a projectable frame. Marte has already surpassed Mateo’s performance in some ways, posting a comparable OPS in the GCL as a 17-year-old who is underdeveloped physically, switch hits, and plays a plus shortstop. One scout described teammate and fellow 17-year-old Wander Franco’s physicality as beyond his years, while Marte was so slightly built that he looked like a 14-year-old in 2018, despite being arguably the best defender in a deep system of shortstops. Marte flashes plus speed, range, hands, and arm strength and while he needs to tighten up his strike zone, he has contact skills even though the strength deficit means pitchers can throw strikes without fear of an extra base hit. Marte’s key will be continuing to add visual and physical strength to hit game — there’s clear everyday potential here if that happens.

28. Alejandro Pie, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 16.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 45/60 20/50 60/55 40/50 55/60

Pie, who ranked 17th on our 2018 July 2 Board, now looks like top 100 prospect Oneil Cruz did at the same age: endless limbs, uncommon athleticism and body control for his size, uncapped power projection, and much more intrigue than certainty about any aspect of the profile. It’s not even clear whether Pie is going to stay on the infield. He runs well enough that center field is a possibility if his actions don’t improve, and he has the arm to play short or third if they do. Even if Pie tumbles down the defensive spectrum, it likely means he’s grown into substantial raw power, enough to profile at any position. Our current tool grade projections indicate what we think things will look like if Pie’s frame develops in a way that allows him to stay at shortstop, but we think it’s going to take a long time before his skillset truly comes into focus.

29. Tobias Myers, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Winter Haven HS (FL) (BAL)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 193 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 55/60 45/55 40/50 91-93 / 95

Myers was a bit under-the-radar at a central Florida high school, showing all the markers of a classically projectable and athletic pitcher. But the stuff didn’t edge past average as an amateur, so he lasted until the sixth round, where Baltimore drafted him in 2016. Tampa Bay acquired the local in the Tim Beckham 2017 trade during a breakout season in the New York-Penn League, and we anticipated a full-season breakout in 2018, but things didn’t go as planned. He didn’t get hurt or have a dip in stuff, so the No. 3 or 4 starter upside is still there. Scouts indicated that Myers’ struggles were more in the way he pitched: in the top and middle of the zone more than before, and now against better hitters.

30. Ian Gibaut, RHP
Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Tulane (TBR)
Age 25.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 250 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 70/70 40/45 95-97 / 98

There isn’t huge upside with Gibaut: he’s a 40 FV (middle reliever) for us now and likely won’t be more than a 45 FV (setup man) in the big leagues if things go well. That said, he has huge stuff and while it mostly fits in a one-inning stint, he’s big league ready and dominated Triple-A in a full season in 2018. Given the Rays’ glut of MLB-ready talent and propensity to lean on multi-inning types on their staff, there’s a significant barrier to a long stint on the 25-man roster for a pitcher of this type. Gibaut will get there on the strength of his stuff: sitting 95-97 mph, mixing in a 70-grade changeup and slider that flashes plus. This is a little more raw stuff than Fernando Rodney at his peak, but Gibaut is 25 and hasn’t had his command proven at the big league level yet, so there’s still some uncertainty here.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2011 from Colegio Vocacional Para Adultos HS (PR) (ARI)
Age 26.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 45/45 20/40 40/40 45/50 60/60

It’s possible Perez would have been Arizona’s best everyday option at catcher toward the end of last year, but a desperate need for pitching depth facilitated his trade to Tampa Bay for Matt Andriese. Perez is an athletic catcher with a plus arm, average receiving skills, and some feel to hit. After struggling to perform with the bat during the first several years of his career, Perez has two straight season of league-average offensive performance at Double and Triple-A. He has a pull-and-lift style of hitting, but not enough raw power to optimize that kind of approach. He’s a safe bet to be a quality backup and has a non-zero chance to hit a little more than we expect and be a low-end regular.

32. Joe Peguero, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/80 50/55 40/45 35/45 96-100 / 102

Peguero is a late-blooming power arm who took a step forward stuff-wise in 2018, but didn’t take a step forward statistically until he was put in the bullpen for the last month of the season in the short-season Appalachian League. After the full-time shift, Peguero threw 16.2 IP with 19 K and 3 BB. It’s not as simple as you may think, with most of those relief outings going multiple innings, so it seemed to be more of a mental adjustment than being better in short stints, with some sources telling us his confidence increased in that role. Peguero will turn 22 in May and has a career 6.28 ERA with no experience outside of short-season leagues, so there are some clear concerns. On the other hand, he sits 96-100 and has hit 102 mph, mixing in a curveball that’s plus at times, though he struggles to command it. His delivery is athletic and easy, and he’ll throw an occasional low-90s changeup that is usable. Peguero needed more innings at a low level of competition to build into 2019 and went to the Australian Baseball League this winter, throwing 13.1 IP with 19 K and 2 BB. At this point, Peguero is similar to a position player who converted to pitching in college and is now draft eligible with huge stuff but little polish; that guy goes roughly in the third round, which is right about where we have him pegged here, but he needs to move quickly and perform now that he’s found his role.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2013 from Lexington HS (SC) (TBR)
Age 23.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 55/55 40/45 20/20 50/50 70/70

Ciuffo was a first round pick out of a South Carolina high school in 2013 based on the strength of his arm and power, with his hitting and catching skills closer to average. That’s still largely the report 5.5 years later, with the gap being that Ciuffo isn’t quite offensively talented enough (a combination of plate coverage, loft and bat control) to hit for both leagues’ average contact and power. The lower offensive upside makes him more of a potential backup. He got a cup of coffee in 2018 and is currently the third catcher for the Rays, so he’ll almost certainly get more big league time when there’s a catcher injury or prolonged slump next season.

34. Matt Krook, LHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Oregon (SFG)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
50/50 40/50 45/50 88-90 / 93

Krook has one of the best 88 mph fastballs in the minors due to its dramatic sinking movement, which makes it capable of missing bats despite below-average velocity. His arm angle and the shape of his fastball create a pitch that looks very similar to Zach Britton’s sinker, but with much less zip. Though the Giants, who traded him to Tampa as part of the Evan Longoria deal, tried to develop Krook as a starter early in his career, a combination of injury concern (bad delivery, flunked physical coming out of high school, TJ in college) and lack of control made it likely that he’d eventually move to the bullpen, and that transition — or at least, one to a role where Krook throws a number of innings typical of a reliever; he may be a candidate to ‘open’, but we don’t know for sure — is underway. Krook used to live in the low-to-mid-90s and his drop in velocity is perhaps a red flag, considering his medical history. But it plays even at this velocity, and so do his two breaking balls, which benefit from the deceptive ugliness of his delivery.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 18.7 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 35/45 20/40 65/65 50/55 50/50

We’re undeterred by Figuereo’s childlike measurables because, for a 5-foot-8 guy, he actually has a good frame and lots of present baseball skill that should start yielding on-field results as he gets stronger. He’s a plus athlete and runner with a high baseball IQ, switch-hits, and is going to stay on the infield. Unlike his prototypically-sized peers, whose attributes are more obvious in showcase environments, it takes longer to get a feel for and appreciate skillsets like Figuereo’s. We think it’s why skills-over-tools infielders like this tend to sneak up on us, and we’re trying to suss out this profile earlier than we have in the past. If Figeureo’s strength never materializes, he’s probably just a utility guy, at best. If it does, he could be a well-rounded every day player.

36. Ryan Boldt, LF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Nebraska (TBR)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/50 30/45 55/50 50/55 50/50

A big part of why Boldt’s college performance never quite matched the power/speed hype of his high school tools was that his swing was not geared for any sort of lift. He clearly had substantial raw power, but never slugged more than his freshman year mark of .437 at Nebraska. Since college, Boldt’s swing has evolved in a way that better incorporates his lower half. It has more scoop, more ability to catch pitches in, and he’s better able to lift balls that are down. Supporting evidence can be found by observing Boldt’s batted ball profile, as his groundball rate is now close to league average instead of well above it. Though he thickened quickly in college, Boldt is still an above-average runner once he gets underway. His slow first few steps prevent him from everyday viability in center field, and Boldt saw more time in the outfield corners last year than at any other time during his career. He projects as a platoon corner outfielder, especially if last year’s swing changes were just the start of a continuous, upward trend in power output.

37. Curtis Taylor, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from British Columbia (ARI)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 45/50 40/45 93-97 / 98

This is another reliever who, based on usage patterns, it appears is being developed for some kind of multi-inning role, perhaps to follow the opener. Taylor was acquired from Arizona for Brad Boxberger, and after the Dbacks had taken his early-career development slowly (Taylor was a raw college arm from Canada), the Rays hit the gas pedal and quickly moved him to Montgomery in May. He thrived there, typically throwing 35 to 50 pitches once every three to five days. Most of those pitches were mid-90s fastballs that played up due to big extension, while some were above-average sliders. On paper, this reads like a standard two-pitch middle reliever, and for that reason, it’s fair to question whether Taylor’s usage might be caricaturing his velocity, and if his fastball would be this hard on back-to-back days, or if his usage were more variable. But if this is just how Tampa Bay is going to use him, then this is the stuff. Taylor threw 78 innings in 38 games. His four starts were some of his shortest outings. It’s possible Taylor’s usage has been for developmental reasons, but we tend to think he’s being prepared for a fairly distinctive role.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Wilson HS (CA) (TBR)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 60/60 35/50 35/30 40/50 55/55

Betts was one of the most heavily-scouting prep prospects in recent memory, maturing early as a catcher with a plus arm and plus raw power from a strong prep program in Long Beach, CA that has produced five first round picks, including Aaron Hicks. Betts looked to be a mid-first round pick in 2015 when a medical showing that he would need Tommy John surgery caused him to slip to the second round. Betts missed the summer after signing for surgery, played 39 games in 2016, then played just seven games in 2017 due to injury. 2018 was his breakout year on many fronts: he stayed healthy the whole season, caught 63 of the 72 games in which he played, and made his first appearance at a full-season level. Betts turns 22 during spring training and still has plenty to prove — some scouts doubted his ability to catch as an amateur and some still do as a pro — but the arrow is pointing up in that regard as well.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 45/55 25/45 60/60 40/50 60/60

Ramirez is still a under-the-radar as a prospect: he wasn’t a top pedigree amateur, signing for $300,000 when the Rays were in the international penalty box, and has only played in the US as a very limited participant in instructional league. He made quite an impression on the scouts who have been able to see him for his loud tools: plus batspeed, running speed, and arm strength, to go along with a chance to stick at shortstop. Ramirez has put on about 20 pounds since signing, with one scout comparing his frame and toolset to Jose Ramirez’s, though the skills and feel for the game are obviously not even close to that. He also has a good plate approach but can play out of control at times, especially at shortstop. Ramirez likely will head to GCL in 2019 at age 19.

40. Kean Wong, 2B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from Waiakea HS (HI) (TBR)
Age 23.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/50 45/45 35/40 50/50 50/50 50/50

In his second straight year at Triple-A, Wong hit .282/.345/.406 (the highest SLG% of his career, which coincided with a modest-but-relevant 5 percentage point drop in groundball rate) and started seeing action in left field in addition to his usual time at second and third. We don’t think he plays every day, but lefty bats with that kind of positional flexibility are good role players, and Wong is ready for the big leagues right now. The infield situation in Tampa Bay is very crowded and Wong may need a change of scenery to get an opportunity.

41. Tristan Gray, 2B
Drafted: 13th Round, 2017 from Rice (PIT)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 50/50 40/50 50/50 45/50 50/50

Like Ford Proctor a few spots later on this list, Gray was a three-year starter at Rice as a middle infielder and likely projects as a utility guy at the next level. To contrast with Proctor, Gray was a lankier-framed prospect who has slowly filled out and added noticeable loft to his swing this year, so there’s more impact with the bat than there is with Proctor. He’s started playing some shortstop to develop that utility profile, but is a little lesser with the glove than Proctor, fitting better at second base long-term with emergency shortstop ability.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 145 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 45/45 30/40 50/50 45/50 55/55

Then with Minnesota, Palacios got red hot during the early part of 2017 and looked like he might be turning a corner. Teams saw him as a multi-positional infielder with good feel for contact, but were forced to revisit that evaluation when Palacios had a long stretch during which he was also hitting for power. He was promoted, his performance regressed, and he was traded to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi just before the 2018 season. It seems as though the upper levels of the minors have begun to take advantage of Palacios’ epicurean pitch selection, as his numbers continued to decline in 2018. His tools still indicate a utility and pinch-hitting role is possible, but Palacios hasn’t hit for a year and a half now, so we’re less confident he gets there.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 211 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 35/40 92-95 / 97

Tampa Bay’s usage of Romero suggests they may be developing him with a multi-inning role in mind, as 17 of his 26 appearances in 2018 were of the multi-inning variety. Visually though, he looks like a two-pitch, single-inning reliever, though potentially a very good one, as he’ll flash the occasional 70-grade curveball. A well below average athlete and strike-thrower, there’s skepticism that Romero will improve his command deficiencies, but his stuff is very good. He struggled with a late-season promotion to Hi-A and should return there in 2019. He could move quickly if the command suddenly clicks, but we don’t think it will.

44. Miguel Lara, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 21.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
65/65 45/50 50/60 30/40 92-96 / 99

Lara’s delivery evokes a Tesla Coil; mid-90s lightning shoots out of this seemingly unstable thing, a delivery unlike any other in baseball. So funky and violent is Lara’s cross-body, side-arm style of throwing that it’s rare for any two consecutive deliveries of his to look even kind of the same. He only projects in relief, and a lack of control may eventually be his complete undoing as a prospect, but Lara also has a premium three-pitch mix on par with modern high-leverage relievers. His arm slot alone makes him a tough at-bat for righties and his changeup stifles lefties. He may have three functionally plus pitches at peak and be a dynamic bullpen stopper, or he may have strike-throwing issues that make him unrosterable. This is one of the more volatile relief prospects in the minors.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Westview HS (CA) (TBR)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/50 45/55 89-93 / 94

As the 2017 draft approached, it seemed like there was a strong possibility that Mercado would matriculate to Stanford. It was unclear if circumstances would align in such a way that he’d find a home; it would take a team that had a strong evaluation of Mercado (some teams were more apt to project on his fastball than others), a pick near where his talent level made sense, and the pool space to coax him away from college. It turned out the Rays were that team, and Mercado signed for $2.1 million, about $400,000 over slot, as a second rounder. After a year and a half of pro ball, Mercado’s stuff is basically the same. His fastball resides in the low-90s and he’ll show you an above-average curveball and changeup once in a while. He has better command than is usual for a pitcher of this age and size, so he comfortably projects as a starter, likely of the No. 4 or 5 variety.

46. Sandy Gaston, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (TBR)
Age 17.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/70 45/55 45/50 30/45 93-96 / 100

Gaston was a 15-year-old Cuban defector and right around his 16th birthday, he hit 100 mph on some guns in short stints working out for teams. That nearly unprecedented velocity for his age obviously garnered a lot of attention in the scouting community, though he was, as you’d guess, still very raw and often had 20 control when he was scraping triple digits. Gaston also isn’t classically projectable in that his velocity is already at the top of the scale and he has a maturely-built frame at 6-foot, but he did some arm slot and arm action tinkering over the last few years that has affected his control and command. So while Gaston may get stronger as he physically matures, what’s more important is the projection of his feel for pitching, which appears to be more natural at a three-quarters arm slot (more mid-90s velocity), where his arm action is also more naturally online than the higher slot where he was throwing harder and wilder. Gaston’s best pitching performance was as the main event on the mound at the Victor Victor Mesa workout in Marlins Park where the better version of his arm slot, arm action, and control was first seen by a large scouting audience. His best off-speed pitch is a solid average curveball and he also has a changeup that flashes average, so the full stuff package, beyond just the fastball, is also top of the scale elite, but Gaston is also hard to project given the varied looks he’s given scouts over the last year.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Paxton HS (FL) (TBR)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

After a breakout 2017, Franklin took his fastball/curveball combination to Bowling Green and made 15 mostly unremarkable starts there before tearing his UCL. He had Tommy John near the end of July. We likely won’t see Franklin again until late next year, and he might end up throwing the bulk of his innings during instructs or Fall League. The time off means missed reps with a third pitch, and a greater likelihood that Franklin ends up in relief, which was already a possibility given his delivery and limited control.

48. Ford Proctor, SS
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Rice (TBR)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+

Proctor started nearly every game in his three year career at Rice at shortstop (alongside Tristan Gray, a fellow Ray after a trade from Pittsburgh) and the steady performer peaked in his draft year. He’s a decent shortstop with a chance to stick, but like many players in the Rays system, he’s on the spectrum between lock-down shortstop and second base-only. Proctor is near the bottom of the middle infielders on the list for now because the tools aren’t impact (below average raw power, average speed, solid average arm), and the questions around his defense are more on range and explosiveness than hands or instincts. He’s a flatter-planned, all-fields approach type who projects as a utilityman if the bat plays as expected, but one scout pointed out that this was almost exactly the report on Taylor Walls a year ago, and foresees a similar rise for Proctor in 2019.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SEA)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Gregorio came over to Tampa Bay from Seattle as the player to be named later in the deal that saw the Mariners acquire Mike Marjama (who is now retired) and Ryan Garton (who has made 13 MLB appearance in a year-plus with Seattle, mostly pitching in Triple-A) in exchange for Luis Rengifo and Anthony Misiewicz. The trade looked bad in hindsight with Rengifo’s (now with the Angels) emergence early in 2018 but looks even worse now with Gregorio’s continued improvement for the Rays. Gregorio has put on considerable strength since the trade but is still an average runner and is showing plus raw power. The power is starting to show up in games and exit velocities, and the strength has helped him add bat control, which assists with both contact and game power. Gregorio may fit best at third base longterm, but he has above average range for the position and a plus arm, so Tampa Bay will give him a chance to develop as a shortstop, as is their tendency. He looks ticketed for Low-A for his age 20/21 season and is a prime example of what can happen when a skinny but projectable athlete grows into some man strength.

50. Taj Bradley, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Redan HS (GA) (TBR)
Age 17.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Bradley popped a bit in the spring at his Atlanta-area high school when his velo took a step forward and he was sitting in the low-90s. That’s not super surprising since Bradley has a clean arm action and some projection to his frame, but the change in perception was mostly because he was the youngest prep prospect in the country — he’ll be 17 even during spring training, younger than many top prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft. Bradley still needs to clean up his delivery some, throw his changeup more often, and fine-tune his command, but his fastball/curveball combo both project for above average, so there’s clearly something to work with here.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Peguero was the MVP of the 2018 DSL champion Rays. He’s already 19 (on the older end of the spectrum for prospects in the DSL) but is otherwise a well-rounded prospect. He has a good build and is a good athlete, with good stuff (91-94, up to 96 with a 2400 spin rate on the breaking ball), and on-mound poise. We have him evaluated the way we would an older high school arm who could go anywhere from the third to fifth round in the draft.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Tulane (TBR)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Witherspoon benefitted from a big draft spring for Tulane, jumping from two campaigns with a .700-something OPS to a 1.023 OPS and 33 extra base hits in 58 games. The upside here still isn’t huge, with all five tools right around average, but Witherspoon has the feel to hit and defend such that he could be a good platoon outfielder who can play all three spots and get a bulk of the at-bats. The realistic outcome if the bat plays and the 22-year-old moves relatively quickly through the minors is a 450 plate appearance outfielder with fringy offense who plays above average corner defense.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (TBR)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 207 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

It’s not abundantly clear whether or not Rodriguez will be able to catch as, at age 18, he’s already a pretty big, long-levered kid who was initially unsure if he even wanted to try it. But Rodriguez can really hit. He has excellent timing, bat control, and feel for all-fields contact, and he can open up and get his barrel on pitches inside. He might end up at first base or in an outfield corner, but he might hit enough to profile at those spots and if he can catch, his ceiling is sizable.

54. Victor Munoz, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (TBR)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Munoz signed for $442,000 in the 2017 July 2nd period as a second-tier projection arm in the class and he’s already showing some progress just over a year after signing. He’s 6-foot-4, 170 pounds, with an easy delivery and was already touching 95 mph this summer in the DSL, showing starter traits and spinning a solid average curveball at times. Munoz is roughly the same age and competition level as Taj Bradley, who is a few spots ahead of Munoz on the list. Munoz may have a hair more upside due to projection but Bradley has been seen a lot by scouts over the past year while Munoz was very lightly seen, so we’re in a bit of wait-and-see mode here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Young Positional Prospects
Tony Pena, LF
Daiwer Castellanos, CF
Stir Candelario, RF
Aldenis Sanchez, CF
Carlos Vargas, 1B
Kaleo Johnson, 3B

Pena is raw for a 21-year-old but he crushed the Appy League and has plus power, and notably high exit velos. Castellanos, 18, is a spark plug outfielder with plus speed and good feel for the strike zone. There’s risk he’s a fourth outfielder or a Gregor Blanco type of everyday player, but this kind of profile tends to overperform. Candelario, also 18, has a traditional right field profile, including a 70 arm and big pull power. Sanchez is 20 and spent 2018 in the GCL. He’s a rangy, athletic 6-foot-2 and runs well. He could be an above-average defensive center fielder at peak. Vargas, 19, was acquired in the first Mariners Mallex Smith trade. He was a DSL shortstop at the time but he’s filled out to the point where he’ll probably need to move to first base. He has 70 raw power projection but needs to hit a ton to profile. Johnson was a 32nd round pick this summer from Montana State Billings and impressed some pro scouts after signing as a lottery ticket type with plus raw power that showed up in games (and in exit velos) with some chance to stick at third base.

Young Latin American Pitchers
Wikelman Ramirez, RHP
Angel Felipe, RHP
Franklin Dacosta, LHP
Carlos Garcia, RHP
Rodolfo Sanchez, RHP

Ramirez, 18, only threw eight GCL innings due to injury, and he recently had TJ. When healthy, he looked like a potential No. 4 or 5 starter thanks to a low-90s sinker, plus changeup, and average breaking ball. Felipe has been a slow mover and spent the first four years of his career in rookie ball. That’s typically not a great sign, but he throws really hard (up to 100 mph) and is 6-foot-6, so maybe the rest comes later. He’s 21. Dacosta, 18, has a vertical arm slot that should enable him to run four seamers (up to 94) past hitters at the letters, and his curveball has vertical action that will compliment that pitching approach. Garcia was also a little old for the DSL but he throws a heavy, mid-90s fastball and is an interesting relief prospect. Sanchez, 19, is an athletic 5-foot-10 and has a fast arm. He’s been up to 95 and can spin a breaking ball. Most of these guys profile as relievers, save for Ramirez who would have been on the main section of the list if not for his surgery.

Utility Types
Gionti Turner, 2B
Zach Rutherford, SS
Daury Del Rosario, SS

Turner was acquired from Cleveland this offseason for Chih-Wei Hu; a full report is available here. Rutherford is totally competent at just about everything but lacks a carrying tool. He performed at Low-A last year but college bats should do that. Del Rosario signed for $600,000 in July. He’s a switch-hitter who probably fits better at second or third in the long run, and he has fringy bat speed but a track record of hitting.

Catcher Depth
Roberto Alvarez, C
David Rodriguez, C
Rene Pinto, C

Alvarez, 19, had a growth spurt and exceeded expectations in the Appy league as a 19-year-old. He has 50 raw power, a 45 arm, and is a good receiver. He was the last cut from the main section of the list and we think he gets there next spring. Rodriguez is a glove-first catcher with some pop who could be a second or third catcher. Pinto is a bat-first catcher whose glove has started to come along. If viable back there, he could be a backup.

Pitchability Guys
Riley O’Brien, RHP
Rollie Lacy, RHP
Jose Mujica, RHP
Simon Rosenblum-Larson, RHP
Blake Bivens, RHP
Luis Moncada, LHP
Alan Strong, RHP
Josh Fleming, LHP
Joe Ryan, RHP
Tommy Romero, RHP

O’Brien, whose grandfather played for the Pirates in the ’50s, might break out next year. He’s a well-made 6-foot-4 righty who was a 2017 eighth rounder out of Idaho. He pitched well out of Bowling Green’s bullpen early in 2018, was moved to the rotation, kept pitching well, and was promoted to Charlotte. He could end up with a plus fastball and curveball combo. Lacy as been traded twice in the last year. He’s a strike-throwing changeup specialist who projects as a sport starter. Bivens, Moncada, and Strong all have low-90s fastballs with average secondary stuff and command. Rosenblum-Larson sits 90-94 mph with a mid-80s slider from a low slot that reminds some of Steven Cishek, and he went to Harvard, so you’ll never stop hearing about that if Rosenblum-Larson makes the big leagues. Fleming pounds the zone with three solid average pitches from the left side. Romero has some projection left and a deceptive fastball that could help him become one of the 2nd-to-6th inning sort of pitchers that Tampa Bay used this season. Ryan has an ultra-loose arm, which is the reason scouts are projecting more stuff to come from his 88-93 mph heater and average secondary stuff.

Potential Relievers
Michael Plassmeyer, LHP
Travis Ott, LHP
Jhonleider Salinas, RHP
Brandon Koch, RHP
Nick Sprengel, LHP

Plassmeyer was Seattle’s 2018 fourth rounder, who they traded to Tampa in the Mike Zunino deal. He’s an athletic, low-slot lefty with average stuff that plays because he has great command. Ott, too, has average stuff that plays up because he has low-slot funk. He has lefty specialist projection. Salinas was acquired from Cleveland for Brandon Guyer. He’s a monster 6-foot-7 with premium arm strength and middling secondary stuff. Koch is yet another Rays arm who had surgery in June. He’s a quintessential two-pitch power relief prospect with a mid-90s fastball and slider. Sprengel looked like a second rounder (low-90s sinker, above average slider, starter look) as an underclassman at San Diego but developed concerning strike-throwing issues as a junior. He’ll be interesting if his feel for pitching can bounce back.

System Overview

The Rays have made some fascinating decisions in the past few years in an effort to make their small market payroll work without a new stadium on the horizon. They seem to be shooting for an 85-win baseline with a sustainable payroll every year (an accomplishment on its own), and then will either look to use pieces from the major league roster to stock the system if things play out worse than hoped (the Chris Archer deal), or consolidate pieces and make a run if the stars align. This mean trading a lot of assets (first or second-year arbitration eligible starters) most clubs would want to hold on to for multiple upper level minor leaguers of comparable upside (think the Steven Souza deal). Currently, the club appears to be considering some consolidation moves given its glut of MLB-ready talent, particularly in the middle infield, though the tight competitive window in the AL East may be more attractive when the Red Sox lose a few core players over the next few seasons (or the Yankees keep humming and the Blue Jays surge, and it never gets particularly attractive).

On the acquisition front, the Rays’ fortunes in the draft have improved since a particularly poor run a few years back, which many thought was more bad luck than a terrible process, while the international department is in the top tier in baseball. This has been helped by the emergence of Wander Franco, Vidal Brujan, Jesus Sanchez, and Ronaldo Hernandez in the last 12 months, but there are prospects all over the list, largely without big bonuses, who follow a similar distribution as those on the lists of other top international programs.

Similar to the Yankees, the Rays are in the midst of a 40-man crunch that won’t let up anytime soon, with some trades, such as the Genesis Cabrera and Justin Williams for Tommy Pham deal, influenced by trying to clear 40-man spots with young players that aren’t 25-man quality yet. It’s unusual to see a small market team give up first-year arb players for prospects, while also giving up prospects near the majors in return for big leaguers, but such is the situation the Rays have found themselves in.


Top 26 Prospects: Boston Red Sox

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the World Series Champion Boston Red Sox. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Red Sox Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Triston Casas 19.0 R 1B 2022 45
2 Darwinzon Hernandez 22.1 AA LHP 2021 45
3 Michael Chavis 23.4 AAA 1B 2019 45
4 Antoni Flores 18.2 R SS 2023 40+
5 Tanner Houck 22.5 A+ RHP 2019 40+
6 Nick Decker 19.3 R RF 2023 40+
7 Bobby Dalbec 23.5 AA 3B 2020 40+
8 Jay Groome 20.4 A LHP 2021 40+
9 Bryan Mata 19.7 A+ RHP 2021 40
10 Travis Lakins 24.5 AAA RHP 2019 40
11 Durbin Feltman 21.7 A+ RHP 2019 40
12 C.J. Chatham 24.0 A+ SS 2020 40
13 Jarren Duran 22.3 A CF 2022 40
14 Brandon Howlett 19.3 A- 3B 2023 40
15 Gilberto Jimenez 18.5 R CF 2023 40
16 Mike Shawaryn 24.3 AAA RHP 2019 40
17 Denyi Reyes 22.2 A+ RHP 2021 40
18 Brayan Bello 19.6 R RHP 2022 40
19 Daniel Diaz 18.0 R 3B 2023 40
20 Nicholas Northcut 19.6 A- 3B 2022 40
21 Roniel Raudes 21.0 A+ RHP 2020 40
22 Bobby Poyner 26.1 MLB LHP 2019 40
23 Marino Campana 21.1 A RF 2022 35+
24 Jhonathan Diaz 22.3 A+ LHP 2019 35+
25 Eduardo Lopez 16.7 None CF 2024 35+
26 Yoan Aybar 21.5 A LHP 2021 35+

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from American Heritage HS (FL) (BOS)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 238 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 70/80 35/65 40/30 45/55 60/60

Casas was one of the more heavily scouted underclassman high school prospects in recent memory, and stood out hitting in the heart of the lineup for South Florida powerhouse American Heritage and various Team USA squads, and at travel showcases and tournaments. Some of this success was probably because Casas was one of the oldest prospects in the 2019 graduating class, which prompted him to accelerate his schooling in 2017 and reclassify for the 2018 draft. Moving up a year made him age-appropriate for a high schooler in their draft year; at 18.4, he was basically average for a prep player. With the early-career acclaim came a change in the way opposing pitchers approached Casas. They began to pitch around him, and scouts often left Casas games having seen him swing just once or twice because he was constantly walking. Luckily Casas had a long track record of hitting in games, participated in multiple home run derbies during his amateur summers, and posted gaudy exit velocities during team pre-draft workouts, so clubs knew what his offensive potential was. He has good hands and a plus arm that helped him pitch into the low-90’s on the mound, but is a well-below average runner with poor lateral mobility. He played third base after signing (though mostly during instructs, as Casas injured his thumb sliding for a ground ball in June, needed surgery, and barely played during the summer) but expectations are he’ll move across the diamond to first base in 2019 or 2020, where we think he’ll be quite good. Casas’ calling card is his bat and there’s potential for a 60 hit, 70 game power, 80 raw power kind of package. The margin for error for a teenage first base-only types is very small, but we’re very high on Casas’ bat.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 45/50 40/45 94-97 / 99

We have the scowling Hernandez projected into a relief role and think his stuff is on par with many of the best lefty relievers in baseball. Developed as a starter to this point, he has well-below average control and likely wouldn’t throw enough strikes to go more than two or three innings a game in a big league rotation. In relief though, he could be incredible. His fastball is hard and comes in with tough angle. It has natural cut when Hernandez is locating it to his glove side, and with it, he misses bats away from lefties who swing inside its break. Both of his secondary offerings are capable of missing bats but the same mechanical repetition issues that plague Hernandez’s command cause them to be inconsistent. At times, he’ll flash a plus-plus breaking ball; at others, the pitch isn’t located near enough to the plate to entice hitters. And so, projected roles for Hernandez vary depending on the evaluator’s degree of confidence in his ability to tighten up his command. On stuff, he has a chance to be a high-leverage arm, and one of the top 30 or so relievers in baseball.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Sprayberry HS (GA) (BOS)
Age 23.4 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 65/65 50/55 40/40 40/45 55/55

Chavis was a well-known Atlanta-area prep prospect, who in high school was a strong statistical performer with easy plus raw power that showed up in games. He didn’t have a clear positional fit as an amateur, and that’s still mostly the case now–he was a shortstop in high school but wasn’t an athletic fit there, tried catching, which didn’t work, and scouts generally projected third base or first base long term. Though he has mostly played third, pro scouts see Chavis as a first base-only type, and he started seeing time there during the 2017 Fall League and again late in 2018. He missed much of 2018 with an 80-game PED suspension, which ominously came after a breakout 2017 campaign during which he hit 31 homers. He has now reached Triple-A, and had a strong half-season after the suspension was up, but scouts are wary of being all-in on a player whose entire profile is dependent on power and who has also had a recent PED suspension. One-dimensional hitters who are limited on defense tend to end up in a first base platoon (and in this case, it’d be the lesser side of one) or as a low-end starter like Kevin Millar. Either way, it seems unlikely a high-payroll, contending club like Boston would wait for a young player with limited upside to break in as an everyday player. We think Chavis is a low-end regular, who may be trade bait once he further establishes his level of performance post-suspension.

40+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 18.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/55 20/50 50/45 45/55 60/60

Flores, who received the second highest bonus in the Red Sox 2017 international class at $1.4 million — just behind Danny Diaz’s $1.6 million — was the buzz of the Southwest Florida instructional league and has exciting potential. After dominating the DSL during the summer, Flores got a late call-up and played two games in the GCL before his summer was shortened by a minor injury. He reminds some scouts of a potential everyday shortstop who takes a few games to grow on you. Unlike many high-bonus July 2nd prospects, Flores doesn’t have loud, flashy tools, or exceptional twitch or physical projection. He’s more of the steady, low-key type of player with excellent feel for defense (common among prospects from Venezuela, where there’s more of a game-focused development) and high-quality contact. He projects to be an above-average bat with average raw power and the swing attributes to have a chance to get to most of it. Deceptively quick for his size, Flores has average speed and the defensive instincts to cover more ground than his raw foot speed indicates, as well as a plus arm. There’s a chance he outgrows shortstop, but he’d likely be at least above-average, if not plus, at third base in that event. It may be a card full of 5’s (except for arm strength) on the 2-8 scale, with very little pro experience, but scouts are excited about what little they’ve seen here and think Flores could be a first division regular if the bat develops enough.

5. Tanner Houck, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Missouri (BOS)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 55/60 40/50 90-93 / 95

Houck was a projection prep arm from Illinois whose price was just high enough to get him to Missouri. He had a big freshman year there and then had a national coming-out party as the ace of Team USA that summer. Houck continued at about that level for the next two seasons, slinging in a heavy, 91-96 mph sinker from a low slot with a deceptive, crossfire delivery. He threw strikes and had a plus slider. Scouts who weren’t as enthusiastic about Houck’s changeup, or arm slot, or the length of his arm action, saw a reliever. His stuff would flatten out and his command would back up as he fatigued into the late stages of some starts. The Red Sox had Houck change his delivery and arm action for the first half-dozen or so starts in 2018, focusing on a more traditional four-seam fastball approach. It didn’t work, and Boston let Houck go back to what he had been doing later in the year; his dominant final two months of 2018 reflect his comfort with this approach. We think the likely outcome here is a multi-inning power reliever who dominates righties with strikeouts and groundballs, though some see a starter in the mold of Justin Masterson. Either way, Houck should move quickly, especially if he’s only asked to face a lineup once or twice per outing.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Seneca HS (NJ) (BOS)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 25/55 50/45 40/50 55/55

The amateur side of the scouting industry is fearful of prep bats from the Northeast because they face bad pitching during the spring, and are tough to evaluate as hitters. This, coupled with Decker’s slightly advanced age relative to other high schoolers, as well as a deep, late first and early second round group of high school outfielders pushed him into the second round despite having first round physical ability. Decker is a high-effort player with good instincts on the bases and in the field. He probably doesn’t have the pure speed for center but has a small hope of staying there based on his feel. Even when he likely moves to a corner, there’s enough power for Decker to profile as an everyday player provided he hits enough, and early returns on his bat in pro ball (he missed GCL time due to a wrist fracture but played during instructs) are very strong.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Arizona (BOS)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 30/55 40/40 50/55 70/70

There isn’t much precedent for sustained big league success when hitters run strikeout rates as high as Dalbec’s (he’s struggled badly with whiffs since college), but his combination of power and defensive ability give him significant upside if he grows into even a 40 bat. Breaking balls especially flummox him, even when they hang and appear hittable. Mike Olt, Juan Francisco, Matt Davidson, and Pedro Alvarez are recent examples of players with offensive skills who struggled to overcome their issues with strikeouts. But Dalbec is also more athletic than most of those low-contact, corner sluggers, and looked great at third base during the Fall League. Realistically, Dalbec’s issues limit him to a bench or platoon role, which is largely enabled by his ability to play third base well. But because there’s superlative power here, the ceiling is sky high if things suddenly click with the bat. Dalbec also spent time pitching in college (he was 91-93 with an average slider), a secondary skill that is of increasing interest to teams, though it’s still just largely considered to be a parlor trick to show off during a blowout.

8. Jay Groome, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Barnegat HS (NJ) (BOS)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/65 45/55 40/50 90-92 / 96

As early as his freshman year of high school, Groome was pegged by those who scouted him as a potential high first round pick. He had a silky smooth delivery and projectable frame, with average big league stuff almost two years before he was even eligible to be drafted. His stuff just ticked up from there, and arguably peaked the summer before his draft year, when Groome would work 92-96 mph in short stints, worked with an easy plus curveball, mixed in an average to above changeup, and did it with that big, athletic frame and a starter’s delivery, all of which led to being a first overall pick favorite at the time. But a myriad of concerns unrelated to Groome’s talent dogged him more than most prep prospects. That, combined with a quickly thickening frame, contributed to his fall out of the top 10 picks of the 2016 draft. Since signing, Groome hasn’t been on the mound much, making just 17 total pro starts due to a back injury and an eventual Tommy John surgery. He’s slated to return to the mound in June or July of 2019. Some scouts are still wary of his high school off-field issues and maxed-out frame, seeing a bunch of 50 or 55 attributes aside from his plus curveball. Those who are still on board note that his changeup was improving and his velo was regularly up to 96 mph prior to surgery, leading them to think that he was just getting back on track. Proponents expect him to pick up where he left off and reach the No. 2 or 3 starter upside he seemed to have at age 17.

40 FV Prospects

9. Bryan Mata, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 19.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 30/45 92-94 / 96

Mata’s conditioning, velocity, and control all fluctuated wildly throughout 2018, and he ended up walking 58 hitters in 72 innings before his season ended in late July due to back tightness. That’s not to say the industry expected Mata to perform. When he began his season at Hi-A, he was only 18 and the youngest pitcher in the league by a wide margin. He was sent to the Futures Game in July despite these struggles because his stuff is quite good. Mata worked more with a two-seamer in 2018 and his ground ball rate rose to 57%. His low, three-quarters slot creates movement on his changeup that pairs well with the two-seamer and also gives right-handed hitters a tougher look at his loopy curveball. He could have four above-average pitches at peak if you count the four- and two-seamers as two separate offerings, but none of it will matter if Mata’s 2018 strike-throwing is the norm going forward. The consensus is that he has feel for creating effective movement on his pitches but not for locating them yet. Proponents think due to his age that Mata will improve and become a No. 4 starter. Detractors are skeptical of his athleticism, his ability to repeat and throw strikes, or both.

10. Travis Lakins, RHP
Drafted: 6th Round, 2015 from Ohio State (BOS)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 55/55 45/45 92-94 / 96

Two elbow fractures halved Lakins’ 2016 and 2017 seasons and caused him to break camp late in 2018. He was quickly moved to the bullpen last year, and had a healthy, successful season that ended with him claiming a spot on the 40-man. Lakins works a lot with a low-90s cutter that has enough length to miss bats away from righties. After peppering his glove side with cutters, he can throw riding, mid-90s four seamers past hitters at the top of the strike zone, which then sets up his 12-6 curveball beneath it. Relievers with four viable pitches are rare, and Lakins has the stuff to play a valuable multi-inning relief role, though single-inning usage might give him the best shot at staying healthy.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from TCU (BOS)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 60/60 40/45 45/50 93-97 / 99

If forced to pick one prospect from the 2018 draft to throw a big league inning tomorrow, we might pick Feltman, who has an electric fastball/slider combination. As a junior, Feltman struck out 43 batters and walked just six in 24.1 innings, and tied the TCU school record for saves despite being injured for some of his junior year. His fastball is hard and comes in at a tough angle, while his slider has bat-missing vertical action. Barring injury, Feltman should be a quick-moving reliever and has a chance to turn into a late-inning arm.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Florida Atlantic (BOS)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 45/45 30/40 50/50 50/55 60/60

Chatham played on Miami-area powerhouse high school team American Heritage with Zack Collins, and stood out defensively for being a long-limbed athlete with a plus arm and above average defensive ability. Collins went to Miami and became a top ten pick while Chatham went to Florida Atlanta and became a second round talent. Over 2.5 seasons, he has played only 156 games due to multiple injuries. He has viable infield defensive ability and above-average bat control with some doubles pop, but also has some clear offensive limitations. He had a mostly healthy 2018 at Hi-A, and should begin 2019 on the doorstep of a big league utility role.

13. Jarren Duran, CF
Drafted: 7th Round, 2018 from Long Beach State (BOS)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/55 30/45 70/70 40/50 40/40

The trajectory of Duran’s summer and fall rise is unique. During collegiate scrimmages in the fall of 2017, scouts saw a big, athletic second baseman who was just okay defensively, had an all-fields, line drive approach without much pop, and plus to plus-plus speed. Duran had a fine junior spring, but hit for almost no power (which perhaps should be expected in a pitcher-friendly home stadium like Blair Field in Long Beach) and slipped to the seventh round as a nearly-22-year-old with a modest statistical track record. After signing, the Red Sox had Duran change his swing a bit in BP to see if they could tap into something more, and the 6-foot-2, 200-pound Duran started showing above-average pull power. Boston also moved him to center field, where his long-range speed fits better than it did on the infield. He crushed short season and Low-A after signing. For Long Beach State, Duran had 13 extra base hits in 253 PA in 2018; across two pro levels, he had 28 extra base hits in 302 PA, including 11 triples. There are multiple examples of hitters, including Matt Chapman and several of the Stanford guys, who had breakouts after leaving overly-traditional west coast college hitting programs. Duran may be the most recent.

Drafted: 21th Round, 2018 from George Jenkins HS (FL) (BOS)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 55/60 35/50 40/40 40/50 50/50

Howlett was a known prospect in Florida for years and was on a trajectory to go in the top five rounds after a strong start to his spring, but he finished poorly, including a brutal NHSI tournament where all 30 teams had multiple scouts on hand. Howlett swung and missed a ton in front of dozens of high level evaluators, when many had pegged him as the sleeper prospect to break out at the event. The Red Sox found after signing him that he had an issue with his contacts, giving him particular trouble in day games (which all of the games at NHSI were), and got him squared away before his pro career began. Howlett hit six homers in 43 pro games with a manageable strikeout rate that surprised many amateur scouts who had discounted his hitting ability earlier that year. He’s often compared to Northcut since they both play third base and were widely-scouted later-round finds for Boston. Howlett has a little better feel to hit and ability to tap into his power in game situations, but is a little behind Northcut defensively.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 18.5 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/55 35/40 20/35 80/80 45/55 45/45

Jimenez is a scout favorite and probably the highest-rated of the true sleepers on this list. The Sox 2017 international signing class is already paying dividends with Flores, Jimenez, Bello and Diaz all among the org’s top 20 prospects while none have played longer than a week in the GCL. Jimenez is described as a running back playing baseball due to his sneaky athleticism in a compact frame, his all-out style, and standout work ethic. Depending on whom you ask, he’s either a 70 or 80 runner, but his instincts on the bases and in the field aren’t up to snuff just yet. Since there isn’t much raw power presently, he plays more of a slap-and-dash, small-ball game that accentuates his speed. This limits his upside a bit, but when you look back at prospects who outplay their projections, scouts will often point to a name and tell you not to underrate plus athletes with plus makeup; we were aggressive in ranking Jimenez for that reason.

16. Mike Shawaryn, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Maryland (BOS)
Age 24.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/55 45/50 45/50 89-92 / 93

Shawaryn’s prospect stock peaked when he was a dominant college sophomore at Maryland. Injury and a downtick in stuff plagued him as a junior and he fell to the fifth round of his draft. Shawaryn has traversed the whole of the minors as a starter but ultimately might fit best in relief due to some of his stuff’s limitations. He has a funky, low-slot delivery that creates cuttery, horizontal movement on his slider; it’s his best way to miss bats. His changeup and fastball (which was only in the upper-80s for much of his time in the Arizona Fall League) are both fringy on their own but play up a bit due to the deceptive funk in his delivery. Shawaryn fits in a No. 5 starter/swingman relief role, and could be ready in 2019.

17. Denyi Reyes, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 209 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/50 45/50 45/55 88-90 / 92

As rare as complete games have become at the big league level, they’re even rarer in the minors, where developmental caution takes precedence over single-game results. A hyper-efficient strike-thrower, Reyes threw two complete games in 2018 (and needed less than 100 pitches in both) and also had an 8-inning outing against Columbia in July. Though he doesn’t throw that hard, Reyes’ propels himself way down the mound and has super long arms that help him generate big extension, which help his upper-80s fastball play like one in the low-90s. His fastball angle isn’t great for missing bats, but his changeup and curveball are both effective, though not dominant, alternatives. Reyes profiles as an efficient backend starter.

18. Brayan Bello, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 50/55 45/55 30/50 91-95 / 96

A hard-throwing, flexible teenage righty who had a strong summer in the DSL, Bello came stateside for a single GCL outing, then later went to instructional league for shorter outings during which he’d flash three above-average pitches. His build and arm action both portend greater, potentially significant velocity. He has No. 4 starter stuff if things come together, but he’s probably several years away.

19. Daniel Diaz, 3B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 18.0 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 55/60 20/50 50/40 40/50 60/60

Diaz was the Red Sox top international signing in 2017, getting $1.6 million, just ahead of now-superior prospect Antoni Flores’ $1.4 million bonus. Diaz was solid in the DSL last year and made his stateside debut during instructional league. He’s already a big kid — scouts estimate 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds or so, much more than where he’s listed — and he’s unlikely to be a third baseman long term, but players this young still have the opportunity to reshape their bodies pretty significantly. He has plus arm strength and raw power, but there’s also some question about how much he’ll hit, due to an aggressive, power-first approach that needs to be dialed in. Diaz is limited to a corner and there are questions about his position and hitting ability, so he’s a wait-and-see case for now, but he has ceiling because of the power and could generate above-average offense as a third baseman.

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Mason HS (OH) (BOS)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/45 60/60 30/50 45/40 45/55 55/55

Northcut drew wide-ranging takes from scouts in the year leading up to signing with the Red Sox as an 11th rounder from an Ohio high school. He played on the Evoshield Canes, the top travel team in the country, and was scouted often, with a decent but not great glove at third base, above average to plus power, and some feel for hitting and game power, but seemed a mid-round prospect. In the spring and into pro ball, Northcut slimmed up a bit and now projects as at least average at third base, with similar raw power, but some pro scouts questioned his feel to hit. All the elements have been there at some point over the past year and some amateur scouts were really in on Northcut — one said he saw a lot of Austin Riley in him — but didn’t realize his price would end up being as low as it was once he started sliding in the draft.

21. Roniel Raudes, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Nicaragua (BOS)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/50 45/55 40/50 89-91 / 93

After pushing him very quickly at the onset of his pro career, in 2018 the Red Sox throttled down Raudes’ development and had him repeat Hi-A. He regressed statistically (his strikeout rate was down, and his walk rate stayed just below average after regressing in 2017) before he succumbed to a June elbow injury that cost him the remainder of his summer. Raudes started throwing harder in 2018 and remains a projectable, athletic 20-year-old with a great arm action and some changeup feel. That’s still a lot of good stuff, even though other aspects of his profile have either plateaued or gone backward. We hope the fastball control comes back and think Raudes can pitch at the back of a rotation if it does.

22. Bobby Poyner, LHP
Drafted: 14th Round, 2015 from Florida (BOS)
Age 26.1 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 205 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
40/40 50/50 55/55 50/50 60/60 88-92 / 93

Oddly, because four-pitch lefties with command typically find their way into a rotation, Poyner has run the pro ball gamut exclusively as a reliever, with a long track record of performance in that role. His changeup is excellent, but the rest of his stuff is largely enabled by his command. He’s a big league-ready middle reliever.

35+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Campana has strikeout issues that are fed by lever length and mediocre bat control, but he still got to much of his considerable raw power in 2018 and logged 42 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old in full-season ball. A wiry 6-foot-4, Campana could have plus raw power at maturity, which would carry a corner outfield profile if he can hit enough. Successful outcomes for skillsets like this can still be volatile at the big league level, with Domingo Santana and Avisail Garcia as contemporary examples.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age 22.3 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/60 45/50 45/55 87-89 / 92

Diaz had a strong 2018 repeating Low-A as a 21-year-old (153 innings, 147 K, 39 BB, 53% GB%). He’s a husky, low-slot, pitchability lefty with a rainbow curveball and average changeup. The changeup may need to get a bit better to keep righties from teeing off on his fastball, but Diaz also hides the ball really well and can throw his curveball for strikes in fastball counts, so perhaps he already does enough to make the lack of velocity matter less. He profiles as an innings-eating No. 5 starter or long reliever.

25. Eduardo Lopez, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 16.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Lopez was the Red Sox top signing in the 2018 July 2nd period and the club thinks they have one of the safer bets in the class, due to his feel to hit and instincts. Some scouts saw Lopez without much power and with fringy speed and arm strength, but as is the nature of international showcases, often clubs get a look or two at a player when he is 14 or 15 years old, then won’t see him again until instructional league almost 18 months later. Players can change significantly from those limited and early looks, while feel for hitting and defensive instincts are often not obvious unless the club puts in extra work, which not all clubs can do for every player. The Red Sox and rival scouts see an above average bat, average speed, and feel for the game. Some clubs see that as a bat-first left fielder with limited projection, while the Red Sox see a center fielder with a plus bat, a combo that can post a sneaky 3-win season every now and then.

26. Yoan Aybar, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

After four fruitless pro seasons as an outfielder, Aybar moved to the mound in 2018. He spent most of his 2018 season in Florida — first in extended spring training, then the GCL, then Instructional League — throwing really hard (94-97, up to 100) and flashing the occasional above-average slider. Without context, Aybar is raw for a 21-year-old but perhaps someone so new to pitching, with this kind of arm strength and fledgling feel for spin, has potential for growth. Aybar is Rule 5 eligible next year.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-level Hitters
Brett Netzer, 2B
Josh Ockimey, 1B
Roldani Baldwin, C

Netzer is a Tommy LaStella type: fine at second base, an advanced hit tool with a little bit of power, and probably just a good bench bat. Ockimey shows plus power and patience at the plate, but the average will be low and he’s a 30 athlete who some scouts think is a DH-only, so it’s going to be tough to profile. Baldwin has some pop, but isn’t a lock to catch and he’s had injury issues, including a concussion.

Lower-level Hitters
Kole Cottam, C
Cedanne Rafeala, OF
Tyler Dearden, OF
Bryan Gonzalez, RF
Albert Feliz, OF
Eduardo Vaughan, CF

Cottam, 21, is either short on arm strength or defensive ability behind the plate (maybe both) depending on who you ask, but he has plus power and hit 19 homers for Kentucky last year, so there’s some Mike Napoli type upside if it all works out. Rafaela, 18, is a Curacao-born Ronald Torreyes-type, about 5-foot-8 and a multi-positional plus runner with bat control and sneaky tools. If we’re talking upside, one scout said Dearden, 20, could be Cody Bellinger if it all goes perfectly, with a similar frame and swing, but he’s a raw cold-weather player who hasn’t reached Low-A yet, so he’s a wait-and-see case. Gonzalez and Feliz are 2018 July 2 signees. Both have plus raw power and strong frames now, but Gonzalez has the arm for right and a little better feel to hit at the moment. Vaughan is a very raw projection type with some average current tools, but he’s the sort who could take a big step forward.

Relevant Pitching Depth
Chandler Shepherd, RHP
Josh Taylor, LHP
Colten Brewer, RHP

Brewer was acquired for Esteban Quiroz this winter and relies heavily on a 92-94 mph plus cutter, mixing in a solid curveball. He put up great numbers in Triple-A and might be a middle relief piece. Shepherd is an inventory arm with a standout curveball who’s likely a long reliever in the big leagues. Taylor was acquired from Arizona for Deven Marrero and has a big arm that’s been into the upper-90’s, but the rest comes and goes. He was added to the 40-man this offseason.

Lower-level arms
Alexander Montero, RHP
Thad Ward, RHP
Also Ramirez, RHP
Jake Thompson, RHP

Thompson looked like a real prospect after going in the fourth round in 2017 from Oregon State, hitting 98 mph with a starter look in his pro debut, but everything backed up this year. He’s still throwing pretty hard but hasn’t performed. Ramirez is a 17-year-old Mexican pitcher who would’ve gone to the GCL last summer if not for fatigue; he has advanced feel of a four pitch mix and looks like a potential starter. Ward had a velo jump at UCF this spring, going from 88-91 to 91-95, touching 96 mph, but was used heavily and regressed in his pro debut. There’s a slider that is a consistent 55 and flashes 60, and solid command that should allow him to start for a bit in pro ball, but his skinny frame will likely limit him to relief.

System Overview

This system is bad, though it got that way in part because talent from it was used to build a championship team, which is the very best of reasons to have a bad farm system. Still, this group is more compelling than the one we wrote up last year now that the 2017 IFA group has already had several members who have asserted themselves as the system’s most interesting players to follow. The Red Sox have a strong recent track record in Latin America. Former International Director Eddie Romero was promoted to Assistant GM while former Mets International Director Chris Becerra, who signed several of the Mets’ prospects near the top of our recent audit of that org, was brought in to replace him. The Red Sox domestic talent acquisition is going to be limited as long as they’re fielding a good big league team, but we expect the international talent to keep flowing.