65 FV Prospects

Franco was identified as a top tier player in his age group as early as 12 or 13, and was seen regularly by scouts by age 14. Sometimes, precocious prospects are workout warriors or have early physical peaks, but Franco isn’t either of those. He essentially hasn’t failed on a baseball field in any meaningful way since puberty, with his success punctuated by a 2018 pro debut in which he outpaced the game’s most recent phenom, No. 1 overall prospect Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., in just about every way, at the same level, at the same age. Franco signed for the largest bonus in the 2017 July 2nd class ($3.825 million) and was seen as the best player in the class by a good margin. There were some questions about his occasionally disinterested style of play as an amateur, but he likely already had a deal done and didn’t have anything to play for in later workouts. He’s literally always been the best player on any field he’s been on, usually by a lot. The raw tools are accordingly loud, and match his stats: at least a plus hit tool with explosive bat speed, elite bat and body control, and an advanced sense of the zone to go along with plus raw power, plus speed, a plus arm, and a real chance to stick at shortstop. Franco is about as close as you’ll see to a perfect prospect at this point, with questions only arising if you really nitpick — the main one being that Franco isn’t tall — but he already has huge power, so it matters less that he isn’t physically projectable. The Rays have indicated they will start Franco at Low-A in 2019 and, so long as he keeps performing, keep pushing him until he’s challenged so he can experience adversity before he reaches the big leagues. It wouldn’t surprise us to see Franco move across multiple levels, but we wouldn’t expect quite a Juan Soto-esque pace of promotion, and a 2019 MLB debut seems incredibly unlikely, given the Rays’ upper-level infield glut and the service time implications. Rays officials have likened their immediate impression of Franco, as a player and person, to Evan Longoria. Teammates respond to him, and there isn’t even a whiff of the makeup concern some scouts conjured up as an amateur. Franco seems to be the sole author of his potential at this point.

60 FV Prospects

McKay was a cold-weather, two-way high school prospect with average tools. As is the case with many Louisville commits, his asking price was high. He got to campus and took such an immediate step forward that he was invited to play for college Team USA after just his freshman year. His tools steadily progressed and entering his draft spring, McKay was showing effortless 65-grade raw power, and above-average raw stuff on the mound. On draft day, we think a slight majority of teams preferred McKay as a hitter (the two of us were split). But every MLB team had him as a first round talent both ways, so it seemed inevitable that he would be the rare player who would get a chance to do both in pro ball so his team could at least have time to determine which path was the right one if he couldn’t do both. That open-minded approach has driven how Tampa Bay has developed McKay. In 2018, his offense was fine — he was unlucky by advanced and TrackMan metrics — while he really broke out as a pitcher, regularly showing all the best stuff that he had only flashed in college. McKay leaned on a low-to-mid-90s fastball and didn’t have trouble navigating lineups because of his above average to plus command of the pitch. A plus-flashing curveball is his best secondary offering, but his cutter and changeup are both above-average, giving him No. 2 or 3 starter upside, and he’s not a long way off from reaching it. Shohei Ohtani’s usage is the only precedent for how McKay might be handled: a standout, playoff rotation-caliber starter and DH. Given how baseball is valuing first base/DH players, there appears to be much more value on the mound for McKay, but there’s still a real chance he turns into something like a 110 wRC+ hitter who could make a club just on the merits of his hitting and fielding ability as a first baseman, and scouts have always raved about his makeup and work ethic. The most exciting scenario would be if Tampa Bay paired him with a two-way righty (they currently have one in Tanner Dodson and are rumored to be adding a second in Matt Davidson) and pull the gambit Joe Maddon has tried before: rotating righty and lefty pitchers between the mound and a spot in the field based on the matchups. It could be an effective strategy on its own while enabling roster flexibility in other areas, and it saves matchup relievers until later in the game. Of course, nobody wants the Rays to get too cute and spoil what might just be a traditional, mid-rotation profile.

55 FV Prospects

Honeywell felt forearm tightness while throwing live batting practice to Wilson Ramos in late February, and five days later Dr. James Andrews was reconstructing his UCL. It was the first of several season-ending injuries Rays prospects would sustain early in the year, and it delayed Honeywell’s run at a potential Rookie of the Year award. A creative sequencer, Honeywell’s deep, unique repertoire is unlike any other pitcher in the minors. Though his fastball touches 98, his stuff is so diverse that he never has to pitch off of it. He can lob his curveball in for strikes, induce weak contact early in counts by throwing a cutter when hitters are sitting fastball, and he’ll double and triple up on the changeup. What you see listed in Honeywell’s tool grades as a splitter is actually a screwball. It wobbles home in the 79-82 mph range, while his true changeup is usually a little harder than that. The screwgie is more than a gimmick and can miss bats, though it’s best in moderation because it’s a little easier to identify out of his hand, and hitters are able to recognize it after seeing it multiple times in the same at-bat. Honeywell’s delivery is pretty violent and his TJ was not his first injury, but he’s ready and has No. 2 or 3 starter stuff if it comes back after the surgery. He has been throwing off a mound since early December and should be pitching in games before April is through.

Five years ago, Brujan was illiterate and living in extreme poverty in the Dominican Republic. Now he’s fluent in multiple languages and has grown so much as an athlete and ballplayer that we think he’d be in the conversation for the 2019 draft’s first pick were he a college player. If you’re willing to look beyond Brujan’s diminutive stature, he leaves nothing to be desired. He is an elite athlete with acute baseball instincts, a dynamic up-the-middle defensive profile, and mature feel for the strike zone. He has always been physical enough to make quality contact and fast enough to make an impact on the bases, but really began driving the ball in 2018 as his frame started to physically mature. He slashed .313/.395/.427 at Low-A before an August promotion to Hi-A, where he slugged a shocking .582. Aside from his size, Brujan’s profile is flawless and he has a chance to be a star.

50 FV Prospects

Lowe (pronounced with a vowel sound like ‘plow’ or ‘allow’) was an under-the-radar, bat-first prospect at Maryland who the Rays picked in the third round. He has always been a second baseman but was never the pedigree type given his position and average at best speed, defense, and arm. He also tore his ACL as a freshman. His indicators were positive–plate discipline, contact skills, bat speed, enough power to profile–and we were high on Lowe entering the year, pegging him as a 45 FV. He went off in 2018, following a fine Double-A look in 2017 by demolishing the level in 2018, then performing even better at Triple-A, earning a big league look, where he put up almost 1.0 WAR in just 43 games. The offense has taken off even more than those highest on him internally had expected, with some chance for 50 hit and 60 game power with passable defense at second, along with versatility to play left field and possibly first base if needed. Lowe is now in the weird prospect spot where he isn’t the highly-drafted, tooled-up brand name type you typically find in the middle of a top 100, but he’s about as low risk a bat as there is with prospect eligibility, and he can also play up the middle, so his six years of control have tons of value to a small market team like the Rays.

Corner bats with 30-grade plate discipline are scary, but Sanchez has the talent to override his impatience and so far he has performed in spite of it. In possession of a picturesque swing and some of the most electric bat speed in the minors, Sanchez has a .306/.347/.478 career line over four pro seasons, and he’s been young for each of the levels to which he has been assigned. As awestruck as his swing leaves onlookers, it is imperfect and causes him to drive the ball into the ground about 50% of the time. He hits it so hard that it hasn’t mattered yet, and it may not be prudent to tweak Sanchez’s swing so long as he keeps performing, but the ceiling on his power output is huge if his bat path gets dialed in. This is a pretty traditional right field profile, instability and all, and Sanchez has a chance to hit at the heart of a big league lineup. He got a taste of Double-A late last year and should return there in 2019.

Hernandez’s career got off to a slow start in part due to his conversion (he was originally a SS/3B who the Rays asked to catch) but also due to injury, which cost him much of his first pro season. He so dominated the DSL in his second go at it that the Rays had him skip the GCL and sent him right to Princeton the following year. The last two seasons, Hernandez has slugged .500 as a young-for-the-level regular, and he was one homer off the Midwest League lead in 2018. He has above average raw power and sufficient feel to hit that he’ll get to most of it, certainly enough to profile at catcher. While Hernandez is still a below average receiver and inconsistent ball-blocker, he shows enough aptitude for both to project that he’ll be an average defender at maturity, and he has run-stopping arm strength. He’s a top 100 prospect.

Oakland’s selection of Kyler Murray seems to have been the catalyst for Liberatore’s draft day slide. He was arguably the best high school pitcher in the class, evaluated heavily early on by the Giants (who picked second), before settling into the 7-13 range by June. When Murray was selected, teams picking behind Oakland suddenly had access to one more player than they had anticipated. It meant Travis Swaggerty was there for Pittsburgh at 10, which meant Grayson Rodriguez was there for Baltimore at 11, and so on. Other teams hadn’t considered the possibility that Libby would fall to them and either hadn’t done a lot of background work, or weren’t comfortable with how he might alter their bonus pool math. When Liberatore was at his best, he’d throw strikes with 93-97 for the first several innings of his starts, show you a 70 curveball, a good change, and alter the timing of his delivery to toy with hitters. He added a slider part way through his junior year and instantly had nascent feel for it. At other times, he’d sit 88-92 with scattershot command and get too cute with Johnny Cuetoshenanigans. But the frame, athleticism, arm strength, and ability to spin are all ideal, and there’s immense ceiling here.

Solak was a college teammate of Brendan McKay’s at Louisville, and they’ve both drawn some of the most vociferous makeup raves from scouts of any of the players in the minors. There’s a story going around scouting circles that Solak actually broke one club’s makeup algorithm, scoring higher than they thought was possible. It’s probably not surprising to hear that he’s a grinder type of player who makes the most of his sneaky-good tools. Solak has a pretty level cut, but is an opportunistic enough hitter to know how to lift mistake pitches and use his deceptively-average raw power. He’s a plus runner who projects to play an average second base and be an everyday player, but he can play almost any other position on the field if needed, with an arm that’s just a bit shy of what’s preferred for shortstop. He put up a 19 home run, 21 stolen base season in Triple-A last year and would be penciled in as a top prospect about to be handed an everyday job for almost any other club, but the Rays are insanely well stocked with middle infielders, including arguably the best in the minor leagues in Wander Franco; Vidal Brujan is also ahead of Solak on this list. The Rays like to have a versatile big league roster, but there’s likely a trade coming at some point to clear out spots, with Willy Adames, Joey Wendle, Brandon Lowe, Matt Duffy, Yandy Diaz, Daniel Robertson, and Christian Arroyo all seemingly ahead of Solak in the running for three starting spots since first base and designated hitter are also fully manned.

Other than players who qualify under outdated rules about trading recent draftees, we can’t think of a Player to be Named Later who had a stronger evaluation at the time of trade than Baz, who was part of the Chris Archer deal. The tightly-wound Baz has a repertoire tailored like Marcus Stroman’s: it’s four or five pitches, everything is hard, and his best stuff has glove-side action. Pitchers can succeed without changeups provided their breaking balls give them the tools to deal with opposite-handed hitters. Often, that’s enabled by command. Baz’s delivery is explosive but violent, and he may never have average command, let alone the command necessary to succeed without a change of pace pitch, or something to bisect the plate to his arm side. There’s a chance he’s a reliever but with three plus pitches, he could be elite in that role. If the command and/or a changeup develop, he fits in the middle of a rotation.

45+ FV Prospects

It wasn’t that long ago that being an international amateur free agent could be more lucrative than subjecting oneself to the domestic draft. Several players with family abroad moved away and reclassified. Fox, who is of Bahamian descent, netted the most lucrative of these deals, signing with San Francisco for $6 million. The industry was surprised when the Giants immediately sent Fox, who was a tantalizing athlete but an undercooked ballplayer, to full-season ball. He didn’t play well, and was traded to Tampa Bay for Matt Moore a few minutes ahead of the 2016 trade deadline. When the Rays performed a post-swap physical on Fox, they discovered a bone bruise in his foot that would end his season, a matter the two clubs settled after the Rays initially sought further compensation. Fox repeated Low-A the following year and started to perform some with the bat. He’s hit for high averages wth no power each of the last two years, and had a strong 2018 Fall League. The lack of power might prevent Fox from being a true average or better regular, and he remains inconsistent on defense, but he’s a top of the scale athlete whose late 2018 showing could be a sign of real growth. If he comes out in 2019 and performs well, we’ll buy it.

Lowe was nearly anonymous as a prospect until 2018. He played at a high profile Atlanta-area high school (the same one as his brother Josh, who the Rays drafted in first round in 2016), played sparingly for a year at Mercer, then transferred to St. John’s River junior college in Jacksonville, FL, where he hit 17 homers, a feat that got him to Mississippi State for his junior season. He had a solid season for the Bulldogs but was a first base-only prospect with no pedigree who hit five home runs, so you can see why he lasted until the 13th round in the 2016 draft. His hitability translated well that first pro summer and in 2017, which he split across both A-Ball levels at ages 21 and 22. The missing element here is that while Lowe had plus raw power the first time we saw him at Mississippi State, he didn’t have the kind of swing or approach to get the most out of it. This untapped tool and his plate discipline are the reasons he was a 13th rounder and not a 35th rounder who went back to school for his senior year. In 2018, Lowe did a rare thing: he tried to do more damage at the plate and lift the ball a bit more, but was able to keep his contact rates the same while adding game power. Miguel Andujar did this in the Yankees farm system two years in a row and went from an untapped, toolsy prospect who was passed over in the Rule 5 Draft to a Rookie of the Year runner-up; Lowe went from the top of the ‘Others of Note’ section last year to one of the top 150 prospects in the game over a 12 month period. Lowe is a fine defender at first but the value here is all in the bat. Because he’s left-handed, the downside is a platoon option at 1B/DH, though the Rays cycle through those types very quickly. Underlying indicators and TrackMan data suggest Lowe’s very loud 2018 stats aren’t fluky and he may just be a 50 bat with advanced feel for the zone and 60 game power, which is a solid regular. He might be big league ready in the middle of 2019.

45 FV Prospects

Gomez was a plus-running center field prospect when he signed, but over four seasons, his body has matured in a way that is more Wily Mo Pena than Willy Taveras. He has already moved to a corner and might be limited to left field, but with that heft came power and a 2018 statistical breakout (65 extra-base hits) at Low-A Bowling Green. Gomez has below-average plate discipline, and that kind of flaw in a player near the bottom of the defensive spectrum is pretty scary, because it means both the hit and power tools need to develop into plusses for Gomez to clear the overall offensive bar at his position. There’s enough thump here for that, though we’ll have to wait and see on the bat.

McCarthy might be this decade’s Nick Johnson. He has limited physical ability but exceptional secondary skills, and a concerning injury history. In college, McCarthy missed several weeks of his junior year due to back surgery, and in 2018, he had back issues again, which cost him several months. His Fall League stint ended prematurely due to a fractured hand. Amid these injuries, McCarthy has reached base at .390 career rate and climbed to Triple-A Durham. He has sufficient physical tools to hit, just not for stardom, and we expect him to be a role playing 1B/OF who yields value on par with a low-end regular, assuming he can stay healthy.

Lowe was on the draft radar as a prep junior in the Atlanta area when he ran his heater up to 95 mph in a high profile playoff game 13 months before he was draft eligible. Throughout the summer, scouts realized that he was a clear top five round talent on the mound, but a truly elite prospect at the plate. Lowe flashed plus speed, a plus arm, and plus raw power from the left side, projecting as the rare big center fielder with hit and power tools. The concern was that Lowe’s uphill, aggressive, power-oriented cut would limit his contact rate; after the Rays took him in the first round, his swing plane was flatter. In 2018, Lowe’s older brother and fellow Rays farmhand, Nate, shockingly went from fringe prospect to passing his more famous sibling in prospect status. Josh hasn’t put the loft back in his game swing, so he doesn’t look much different than the No. 1 overall pick from his draft class, Phillies center fielder Mickey Moniak. Both posted solid, contact-oriented offensive seasons in the Florida State League at age 20 while playing a solid center field. The difference is that Lowe has plus raw power he could tap back into, while Moniak may eventually grow into just average raw power. Lowe is ticketed for Double-A in 2019 and has a very laid back demeanor, which can turn off some scouts, though others see it as a sign he can handle the grind of the game and break through like his older brother did last year.

If you want to get a sense of the depth of the Rays middle infield, take a look at the end of the Nick Solak report (ninth on this list). It’s a testament to Walls’ breakout 2018 season that he’s even in that conversation, as many scouts thought the Rays had drastically overdrafted him in the third round out of Florida State in 2017. Walls played second base in college and had an all-fields, spray approach with little power but excellent pitch selection and plate discipline. He was getting pegged as a non-impact type, the sort of backup second baseman the likes of which teams don’t carry anymore; his best ability (pitch selection) wasn’t even a tool, and it didn’t matter much if he didn’t have any power. Most of that changed in 2018 as the Rays’ strategy of drafting players projected as second baseman and seeing if they can play shortstop worked out, with Clay Davenport’s defensive metrics grading Walls at +16 runs over 103 games, about as high of a number as you’ll see in the minor leagues. Scouts tended to agree that Walls was above average at the position, more due to angles and instincts than raw tools, and this development seemed to surprise even the Rays. Offensively, Walls started driving the ball more and doing some extra base damage when he was getting into good counts. The raw tools are still mostly average and he was 22 years old in Low-A, a function of the Rays’ middle infield depth blocking a deserved promotion, so there isn’t amazing upside here. That said, a player many scouts thought was an overdraft now looks like he has a solid shot to turn into a good utility guy or low-end regular just 18 months later.

Even though Linares’ frame hasn’t filled out very much since he teenage days, his velocity has climbed. Loose and spindly, the low-slot lefty now sports a fastball that sits in the low-to-mid 90s. Linares uses his curveball to attack both left and right-handed hitters, and his lack of changeup development to this point is the chief reason why he may project to the bullpen, where he may throw even harder and turn into something resembling Felipe Vasquez. We like lanky, athletic pitchers with feel for spin. Though there are clear things to work on, Linares is one of those. He should spend 2019 at Hi-A.

Banda has been traded twice — Milwaukee sent him and Mitch Haniger to Arizona for Gerardo Parra in 2014, and then in 2018, Banda was part of the massive, three-team trade involving Steven Souza and Brandon Drury, among others — and finally looked like he’d get a long-term big league look in 2018. He was ten innings shy of exhausting rookie eligibility when he tore his UCL and had Tommy John in early June. It’s an awkwardly-timed surgery that might keep Banda out for all of 2019 as he recovers. He has No. 4 starter stuff when healthy, but we may not see it in the big leagues again until Banda is 26.

Schnell was an upside, cold-weather hitter to watch in the 2018 draft class but he exceeded expectations in the spring, rising into discussions for the middle of the first round. He landed near the top of a group of top-tier toolsy outfielders, flashing plus raw power, speed, and arm strength. He also went on a tear down the stretch in the Illinois state playoffs when high-level scouts were coming in for looks, hitting homer after homer. Some scouts were still uncertain about Schnell’s ultimate upside, arguing that his style of hitting indicates a swing flaw. To possess premium bat speed and face pitching in the 80s and still hit opposite field homers indicates Schnell was late on subpar stuff, and his deep hand load (which helps create the power) means this approach and his ultimate upside might not work in pro ball. While it’s too early to pass judgment on that opinion, Schnell struggled against good pitching in his pro debut and in instructional league, often exhibiting poor timing and ending up late on good fastballs. The Rays aren’t worried — expectations for cold-weather hitters are close to nil in their pro debut, not only because of the big jump in competition but also because they’re playing the longest season of their lives. Schnell may start 2019 in extended spring training so the org can keep a close eye on his habits and challenges in a controlled environment, but his upside is still among the best in his draft class.

McClanahan was barely seen the summer before his senior year in high school, pitching in the low-to-mid-80s in the lightly-scouted southwest corner of Florida, and committed to a smaller mid-major school. In his senior spring, things starting changing; he was getting into the low-90s, but it was still raw enough and abrupt enough of a change that it made sense for McClanahan to go to school, now at South Florida. He had another velo bump early in his college career, which eventually led to Tommy John surgery. Buzz grew in scouting circles as his post-surgery stuff was elite and after his first start of 2018, a heavily-scouted matchup with North Carolina, McClanahan looked like a top five overall pick. In that game, he hit 100 mph and flashed an above average slider and changeup along with enough feel to project as a starter. From then on, things started to unravel, until the Rays popped the local kid 31st overall. McClanahan had some minor issues — a finger injury and fluctuating velo as weather and workload dictated — but more worrisome to scouts were both his maturity and how he fared when his fastball was more of a 6 than an 8, and his command was a 3 or 4 instead of a 5. Most college pitchers can succeed with 55 or 60 stuff and below average command, but McClanahan struggled and showed it on the mound. The optimistic case is that a change of scenery, coaching, and workload (with less pressure) will help tease out that top five overall pick version of McClanahan, while the pessimistic case is that what we saw down the stretch is indicative of a future as a streaky power reliever with limited feel.

Frank was first seen by most scouts as a utility player on college Team USA the summer before he was draft eligible. He didn’t stand out much there, playing all over the field and making contact, but lacking impact tools. He shined much brighter in the spring for Florida Atlantic, with just shy of a 1.000 OPS and 13 homers while playing a passable shortstop. The setting in which you scout a player can do wonders and the Team USA look didn’t give Frank much of chance to show what he could do. Scouts who saw Frank in pro ball, after the Rays popped him in the second round, see a slightly lesser version of Taylor Walls, another under-tooled Rays middle infielder with lots of feel. Frank is seen as more of a second baseman going forward and his 45 raw power, 50 speed, and 50 defense still aren’t loud, but his ability to hit, take a good at-bat, and have advanced feel for the game give Frank the look of a potential low-end regular who could move quickly through the minors.

40+ FV Prospects

Acquired from Los Angeles for Logan Forsythe, De Leon has basically lost the last two years to poor arm health. He had intermittent injury issues throughout 2017 — flexor mass discomfort, a lat strain, elbow tendinitis — and needed Tommy John during 2018 Spring Training. He’s been throwing bullpens and is on track to return sometime in the middle of 2019. It’s unclear if the drop in velocity De Leon exhibited betwixt his DL stints was due to injury or if that’s just how hard he throws now. At his prospect peak in Los Angeles, when De Leon struck out no fewer than 32% of opposing hitters over a three-season stretch, he was sitting 92-94, and touching 96. Though there’s less stigma surrounding drop-and-drive deliveries now, there was concern about De Leon’s fastball being liftable even at that velocity due to it’s plane. At his more recent 89-91, it’s more worrisome. But if the velocity comes back, De Leon will have two plus pitches in his fastball and a goofy changeup, which has weird, horizontal action. He throws a ton of strikes and has two viable breaking balls. He could be a No. 3 or 4 starter if everything comes back, but is more like a No. 5 if it doesn’t.

In many ways, the first half of Strotman’s 2018 season was just like that of Phillies righty Spencer Howard, who’s now in the overall top 100 picture because his stuff exploded late in the year. Like Howard, Strotman mostly pitched out of the bullpen at a second tier California college and only began starting full time in 2018. He was probably slightly underscouted as an amateur, and definitely underdeveloped. For a month and a half of 2018, he showed mid-rotation stuff, then blew out his elbow and needed Tommy John. He may not be back in affiliated ball until late next summer, but he was quite young for a college draftee (another trait he shares with Howard) and has more developmental wiggle room for a setback like this than most of his peers would. He’s a 2019 Arizona Fall League breakout candidate.

It’s pretty common for pitchers to have a delivery that accentuates their stuff, and often, it’s easy to detect with the naked eye. This is not so for Poche, whose mechanical sleight of hand is not visually obvious, but whose success with what appears to be a mediocre fastball is unmatched in the minors. Poche has somehow managed to generate elite swinging strike rates with fringe fastball velocity and a spin rate that’s shy of average. Scouts and colleagues have asserted that Poche hides the ball well, only showing it to hitters when it suddenly appears out from behind his head. Poche also generates elite down-mound extension and fastball rise. His pitches not only make hitters look uncomfortable, they sometimes sneak up on the catcher, too. Essentially, Poche has an average fastball with three separate characteristics that make it play up. Big league hitters may be less vulnerable to one or more of these characteristics, but if not, Poche’s fastball is going to play like a 7 or 8, and he could be a top 50 big league reliever.

The Dave Stewart Dbacks regime purportedly considered Whitley for the 2015 draft’s first pick, which seemed ill-advised given how blatantly risky both Whitley and his draft demographic were and are (raw, cold-weather prep outfielders can be Mike Trout or Anthony Hewitt). He fell to pick 13. As a pro, Whitley has become a power and patience center field prospect. He owns a 12% career walk rate and in 2017 started tapping into power thanks to a swing change. He was a candidate for a 2018 national breakout, but got hurt during spring training and missed the entire season while recovering from labrum surgery. The injury ate an important year of Whitley’s development, and also created risk that he has to move to left field if his arm strength doesn’t return (he began throwing a baseball again in late August). Just as he was starting to answer a lot of the pre-draft questions, a bunch of new ones were introduced, but we’re still enamored with Whitley’s physical gifts and upside. He’ll likely begin 2019 at Hi-A.

Dodson’s father, Bo, hit .288/.397/.436 as a 10-year minor league first baseman, and may have gotten a shot had he played during an era that better appreciated his on base skills, or had he not been blocked by John Jaha in ’95 and Mo Vaughn in ’96. Tanner is a totally different baseball entity, standing apart not just from his father but from the rest of the minors, and access to such a unique skillset is partly what motivated the curious Rays to draft him in the second round in 2018. Dodson was Cal’s two-hole hitter, starting center fielder, and closer. If forced to chose a traditional developmental path, teams would have overwhelmingly preferred Dodson on the mound, where his stuff is commensurate with a typical middle reliever. But he is also a plus-running switch-hitter, with some natural lift as a right-handed hitter and good barrel control as a lefty. The Rays want to take advantage of all of Dodson’s skills and asked that he be announced on draft day as a two-way player. At Cal, Dodson would often warm up his arm in center field, sometimes very little, before coming in to pitch in save situations. In pro ball, he pitched once every seven days, would have a bullpen day at the midpoint between outings, and either DH or play CF on the other days. Developing as a two-way player is actually less labor intensive than existing as one in college, where Dodson’s schedule was more variable. Neither of Dodson’s individual roles projects to be ones of impact. On the mound, he looks like a middle reliever; with the bat, he looks like a fourth outfielder. But if he performs like a standard 40-inning reliever, like Jacob Barnes, and quintessential fourth outfielder, like Travis Jankowski, he’ll generate a combined 1.5 to 2 WAR annually.

40 FV Prospects

Marte originally signed for $3 million with the Twins as one of the top position players in the 2017 July 2nd class. That deal was voided over concerns about Marte’s vision, but those concerns weren’t as strong as they were with the last prospect who went through a situation like this, Dominican power-hitting right fielder Wagner Mateo. Mateo signed for $3.1 million with St. Louis in 2009, and after his deal was voided, signed with Arizona for $512,000 almost a year later. Mateo played parts of four seasons before being released by Arizona, only playing 10 games in a full-season league with a career .660 OPS. Marte ended up signing with Tampa Bay less than a month after his deal was voided, this time for $820,000; Tampa Bay sees his vision as a correctable issue that’s already shown improvement, adding strength to his eyes like you would to a projectable frame. Marte has already surpassed Mateo’s performance in some ways, posting a comparable OPS in the GCL as a 17-year-old who is underdeveloped physically, switch hits, and plays a plus shortstop. One scout described teammate and fellow 17-year-old Wander Franco’s physicality as beyond his years, while Marte was so slightly built that he looked like a 14-year-old in 2018, despite being arguably the best defender in a deep system of shortstops. Marte flashes plus speed, range, hands, and arm strength and while he needs to tighten up his strike zone, he has contact skills even though the strength deficit means pitchers can throw strikes without fear of an extra base hit. Marte’s key will be continuing to add visual and physical strength to hit game — there’s clear everyday potential here if that happens.

Pie, who ranked 17th on our 2018 July 2 Board, now looks like top 100 prospect Oneil Cruz did at the same age: endless limbs, uncommon athleticism and body control for his size, uncapped power projection, and much more intrigue than certainty about any aspect of the profile. It’s not even clear whether Pie is going to stay on the infield. He runs well enough that center field is a possibility if his actions don’t improve, and he has the arm to play short or third if they do. Even if Pie tumbles down the defensive spectrum, it likely means he’s grown into substantial raw power, enough to profile at any position. Our current tool grade projections indicate what we think things will look like if Pie’s frame develops in a way that allows him to stay at shortstop, but we think it’s going to take a long time before his skillset truly comes into focus.

Myers was a bit under-the-radar at a central Florida high school, showing all the markers of a classically projectable and athletic pitcher. But the stuff didn’t edge past average as an amateur, so he lasted until the sixth round, where Baltimore drafted him in 2016. Tampa Bay acquired the local in the Tim Beckham 2017 trade during a breakout season in the New York-Penn League, and we anticipated a full-season breakout in 2018, but things didn’t go as planned. He didn’t get hurt or have a dip in stuff, so the No. 3 or 4 starter upside is still there. Scouts indicated that Myers’ struggles were more in the way he pitched: in the top and middle of the zone more than before, and now against better hitters.

There isn’t huge upside with Gibaut: he’s a 40 FV (middle reliever) for us now and likely won’t be more than a 45 FV (setup man) in the big leagues if things go well. That said, he has huge stuff and while it mostly fits in a one-inning stint, he’s big league ready and dominated Triple-A in a full season in 2018. Given the Rays’ glut of MLB-ready talent and propensity to lean on multi-inning types on their staff, there’s a significant barrier to a long stint on the 25-man roster for a pitcher of this type. Gibaut will get there on the strength of his stuff: sitting 95-97 mph, mixing in a 70-grade changeup and slider that flashes plus. This is a little more raw stuff than Fernando Rodney at his peak, but Gibaut is 25 and hasn’t had his command proven at the big league level yet, so there’s still some uncertainty here.

It’s possible Perez would have been Arizona’s best everyday option at catcher toward the end of last year, but a desperate need for pitching depth facilitated his trade to Tampa Bay for Matt Andriese. Perez is an athletic catcher with a plus arm, average receiving skills, and some feel to hit. After struggling to perform with the bat during the first several years of his career, Perez has two straight season of league-average offensive performance at Double and Triple-A. He has a pull-and-lift style of hitting, but not enough raw power to optimize that kind of approach. He’s a safe bet to be a quality backup and has a non-zero chance to hit a little more than we expect and be a low-end regular.

Peguero is a late-blooming power arm who took a step forward stuff-wise in 2018, but didn’t take a step forward statistically until he was put in the bullpen for the last month of the season in the short-season Appalachian League. After the full-time shift, Peguero threw 16.2 IP with 19 K and 3 BB. It’s not as simple as you may think, with most of those relief outings going multiple innings, so it seemed to be more of a mental adjustment than being better in short stints, with some sources telling us his confidence increased in that role. Peguero will turn 22 in May and has a career 6.28 ERA with no experience outside of short-season leagues, so there are some clear concerns. On the other hand, he sits 96-100 and has hit 102 mph, mixing in a curveball that’s plus at times, though he struggles to command it. His delivery is athletic and easy, and he’ll throw an occasional low-90s changeup that is usable. Peguero needed more innings at a low level of competition to build into 2019 and went to the Australian Baseball League this winter, throwing 13.1 IP with 19 K and 2 BB. At this point, Peguero is similar to a position player who converted to pitching in college and is now draft eligible with huge stuff but little polish; that guy goes roughly in the third round, which is right about where we have him pegged here, but he needs to move quickly and perform now that he’s found his role.

Ciuffo was a first round pick out of a South Carolina high school in 2013 based on the strength of his arm and power, with his hitting and catching skills closer to average. That’s still largely the report 5.5 years later, with the gap being that Ciuffo isn’t quite offensively talented enough (a combination of plate coverage, loft and bat control) to hit for both leagues’ average contact and power. The lower offensive upside makes him more of a potential backup. He got a cup of coffee in 2018 and is currently the third catcher for the Rays, so he’ll almost certainly get more big league time when there’s a catcher injury or prolonged slump next season.

Krook has one of the best 88 mph fastballs in the minors due to its dramatic sinking movement, which makes it capable of missing bats despite below-average velocity. His arm angle and the shape of his fastball create a pitch that looks very similar to Zach Britton’s sinker, but with much less zip. Though the Giants, who traded him to Tampa as part of the Evan Longoria deal, tried to develop Krook as a starter early in his career, a combination of injury concern (bad delivery, flunked physical coming out of high school, TJ in college) and lack of control made it likely that he’d eventually move to the bullpen, and that transition — or at least, one to a role where Krook throws a number of innings typical of a reliever; he may be a candidate to ‘open’, but we don’t know for sure — is underway. Krook used to live in the low-to-mid-90s and his drop in velocity is perhaps a red flag, considering his medical history. But it plays even at this velocity, and so do his two breaking balls, which benefit from the deceptive ugliness of his delivery.

We’re undeterred by Figuereo’s childlike measurables because, for a 5-foot-8 guy, he actually has a good frame and lots of present baseball skill that should start yielding on-field results as he gets stronger. He’s a plus athlete and runner with a high baseball IQ, switch-hits, and is going to stay on the infield. Unlike his prototypically-sized peers, whose attributes are more obvious in showcase environments, it takes longer to get a feel for and appreciate skillsets like Figuereo’s. We think it’s why skills-over-tools infielders like this tend to sneak up on us, and we’re trying to suss out this profile earlier than we have in the past. If Figeureo’s strength never materializes, he’s probably just a utility guy, at best. If it does, he could be a well-rounded every day player.

A big part of why Boldt’s college performance never quite matched the power/speed hype of his high school tools was that his swing was not geared for any sort of lift. He clearly had substantial raw power, but never slugged more than his freshman year mark of .437 at Nebraska. Since college, Boldt’s swing has evolved in a way that better incorporates his lower half. It has more scoop, more ability to catch pitches in, and he’s better able to lift balls that are down. Supporting evidence can be found by observing Boldt’s batted ball profile, as his groundball rate is now close to league average instead of well above it. Though he thickened quickly in college, Boldt is still an above-average runner once he gets underway. His slow first few steps prevent him from everyday viability in center field, and Boldt saw more time in the outfield corners last year than at any other time during his career. He projects as a platoon corner outfielder, especially if last year’s swing changes were just the start of a continuous, upward trend in power output.

This is another reliever who, based on usage patterns, it appears is being developed for some kind of multi-inning role, perhaps to follow the opener. Taylor was acquired from Arizona for Brad Boxberger, and after the Dbacks had taken his early-career development slowly (Taylor was a raw college arm from Canada), the Rays hit the gas pedal and quickly moved him to Montgomery in May. He thrived there, typically throwing 35 to 50 pitches once every three to five days. Most of those pitches were mid-90s fastballs that played up due to big extension, while some were above-average sliders. On paper, this reads like a standard two-pitch middle reliever, and for that reason, it’s fair to question whether Taylor’s usage might be caricaturing his velocity, and if his fastball would be this hard on back-to-back days, or if his usage were more variable. But if this is just how Tampa Bay is going to use him, then this is the stuff. Taylor threw 78 innings in 38 games. His four starts were some of his shortest outings. It’s possible Taylor’s usage has been for developmental reasons, but we tend to think he’s being prepared for a fairly distinctive role.

Betts was one of the most heavily-scouting prep prospects in recent memory, maturing early as a catcher with a plus arm and plus raw power from a strong prep program in Long Beach, CA that has produced five first round picks, including Aaron Hicks. Betts looked to be a mid-first round pick in 2015 when a medical showing that he would need Tommy John surgery caused him to slip to the second round. Betts missed the summer after signing for surgery, played 39 games in 2016, then played just seven games in 2017 due to injury. 2018 was his breakout year on many fronts: he stayed healthy the whole season, caught 63 of the 72 games in which he played, and made his first appearance at a full-season level. Betts turns 22 during spring training and still has plenty to prove — some scouts doubted his ability to catch as an amateur and some still do as a pro — but the arrow is pointing up in that regard as well.

Ramirez is still a under-the-radar as a prospect: he wasn’t a top pedigree amateur, signing for $300,000 when the Rays were in the international penalty box, and has only played in the US as a very limited participant in instructional league. He made quite an impression on the scouts who have been able to see him for his loud tools: plus batspeed, running speed, and arm strength, to go along with a chance to stick at shortstop. Ramirez has put on about 20 pounds since signing, with one scout comparing his frame and toolset to Jose Ramirez’s, though the skills and feel for the game are obviously not even close to that. He also has a good plate approach but can play out of control at times, especially at shortstop. Ramirez likely will head to GCL in 2019 at age 19.

In his second straight year at Triple-A, Wong hit .282/.345/.406 (the highest SLG% of his career, which coincided with a modest-but-relevant 5 percentage point drop in groundball rate) and started seeing action in left field in addition to his usual time at second and third. We don’t think he plays every day, but lefty bats with that kind of positional flexibility are good role players, and Wong is ready for the big leagues right now. The infield situation in Tampa Bay is very crowded and Wong may need a change of scenery to get an opportunity.

Like Ford Proctor a few spots later on this list, Gray was a three-year starter at Rice as a middle infielder and likely projects as a utility guy at the next level. To contrast with Proctor, Gray was a lankier-framed prospect who has slowly filled out and added noticeable loft to his swing this year, so there’s more impact with the bat than there is with Proctor. He’s started playing some shortstop to develop that utility profile, but is a little lesser with the glove than Proctor, fitting better at second base long-term with emergency shortstop ability.

Then with Minnesota, Palacios got red hot during the early part of 2017 and looked like he might be turning a corner. Teams saw him as a multi-positional infielder with good feel for contact, but were forced to revisit that evaluation when Palacios had a long stretch during which he was also hitting for power. He was promoted, his performance regressed, and he was traded to Tampa Bay for Jake Odorizzi just before the 2018 season. It seems as though the upper levels of the minors have begun to take advantage of Palacios’ epicurean pitch selection, as his numbers continued to decline in 2018. His tools still indicate a utility and pinch-hitting role is possible, but Palacios hasn’t hit for a year and a half now, so we’re less confident he gets there.

Tampa Bay’s usage of Romero suggests they may be developing him with a multi-inning role in mind, as 17 of his 26 appearances in 2018 were of the multi-inning variety. Visually though, he looks like a two-pitch, single-inning reliever, though potentially a very good one, as he’ll flash the occasional 70-grade curveball. A well below average athlete and strike-thrower, there’s skepticism that Romero will improve his command deficiencies, but his stuff is very good. He struggled with a late-season promotion to Hi-A and should return there in 2019. He could move quickly if the command suddenly clicks, but we don’t think it will.

Lara’s delivery evokes a Tesla Coil; mid-90s lightning shoots out of this seemingly unstable thing, a delivery unlike any other in baseball. So funky and violent is Lara’s cross-body, side-arm style of throwing that it’s rare for any two consecutive deliveries of his to look even kind of the same. He only projects in relief, and a lack of control may eventually be his complete undoing as a prospect, but Lara also has a premium three-pitch mix on par with modern high-leverage relievers. His arm slot alone makes him a tough at-bat for righties and his changeup stifles lefties. He may have three functionally plus pitches at peak and be a dynamic bullpen stopper, or he may have strike-throwing issues that make him unrosterable. This is one of the more volatile relief prospects in the minors.

As the 2017 draft approached, it seemed like there was a strong possibility that Mercado would matriculate to Stanford. It was unclear if circumstances would align in such a way that he’d find a home; it would take a team that had a strong evaluation of Mercado (some teams were more apt to project on his fastball than others), a pick near where his talent level made sense, and the pool space to coax him away from college. It turned out the Rays were that team, and Mercado signed for $2.1 million, about $400,000 over slot, as a second rounder. After a year and a half of pro ball, Mercado’s stuff is basically the same. His fastball resides in the low-90s and he’ll show you an above-average curveball and changeup once in a while. He has better command than is usual for a pitcher of this age and size, so he comfortably projects as a starter, likely of the No. 4 or 5 variety.

Gaston was a 15-year-old Cuban defector and right around his 16th birthday, he hit 100 mph on some guns in short stints working out for teams. That nearly unprecedented velocity for his age obviously garnered a lot of attention in the scouting community, though he was, as you’d guess, still very raw and often had 20 control when he was scraping triple digits. Gaston also isn’t classically projectable in that his velocity is already at the top of the scale and he has a maturely-built frame at 6-foot, but he did some arm slot and arm action tinkering over the last few years that has affected his control and command. So while Gaston may get stronger as he physically matures, what’s more important is the projection of his feel for pitching, which appears to be more natural at a three-quarters arm slot (more mid-90s velocity), where his arm action is also more naturally online than the higher slot where he was throwing harder and wilder. Gaston’s best pitching performance was as the main event on the mound at the Victor Victor Mesa workout in Marlins Park where the better version of his arm slot, arm action, and control was first seen by a large scouting audience. His best off-speed pitch is a solid average curveball and he also has a changeup that flashes average, so the full stuff package, beyond just the fastball, is also top of the scale elite, but Gaston is also hard to project given the varied looks he’s given scouts over the last year.

35+ FV Prospects

After a breakout 2017, Franklin took his fastball/curveball combination to Bowling Green and made 15 mostly unremarkable starts there before tearing his UCL. He had Tommy John near the end of July. We likely won’t see Franklin again until late next year, and he might end up throwing the bulk of his innings during instructs or Fall League. The time off means missed reps with a third pitch, and a greater likelihood that Franklin ends up in relief, which was already a possibility given his delivery and limited control.

Proctor started nearly every game in his three year career at Rice at shortstop (alongside Tristan Gray, a fellow Ray after a trade from Pittsburgh) and the steady performer peaked in his draft year. He’s a decent shortstop with a chance to stick, but like many players in the Rays system, he’s on the spectrum between lock-down shortstop and second base-only. Proctor is near the bottom of the middle infielders on the list for now because the tools aren’t impact (below average raw power, average speed, solid average arm), and the questions around his defense are more on range and explosiveness than hands or instincts. He’s a flatter-planned, all-fields approach type who projects as a utilityman if the bat plays as expected, but one scout pointed out that this was almost exactly the report on Taylor Walls a year ago, and foresees a similar rise for Proctor in 2019.

Gregorio came over to Tampa Bay from Seattle as the player to be named later in the deal that saw the Mariners acquire Mike Marjama (who is now retired) and Ryan Garton (who has made 13 MLB appearance in a year-plus with Seattle, mostly pitching in Triple-A) in exchange for Luis Rengifo and Anthony Misiewicz. The trade looked bad in hindsight with Rengifo’s (now with the Angels) emergence early in 2018 but looks even worse now with Gregorio’s continued improvement for the Rays. Gregorio has put on considerable strength since the trade but is still an average runner and is showing plus raw power. The power is starting to show up in games and exit velocities, and the strength has helped him add bat control, which assists with both contact and game power. Gregorio may fit best at third base longterm, but he has above average range for the position and a plus arm, so Tampa Bay will give him a chance to develop as a shortstop, as is their tendency. He looks ticketed for Low-A for his age 20/21 season and is a prime example of what can happen when a skinny but projectable athlete grows into some man strength.

Bradley popped a bit in the spring at his Atlanta-area high school when his velo took a step forward and he was sitting in the low-90s. That’s not super surprising since Bradley has a clean arm action and some projection to his frame, but the change in perception was mostly because he was the youngest prep prospect in the country — he’ll be 17 even during spring training, younger than many top prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft. Bradley still needs to clean up his delivery some, throw his changeup more often, and fine-tune his command, but his fastball/curveball combo both project for above average, so there’s clearly something to work with here.

Peguero was the MVP of the 2018 DSL champion Rays. He’s already 19 (on the older end of the spectrum for prospects in the DSL) but is otherwise a well-rounded prospect. He has a good build and is a good athlete, with good stuff (91-94, up to 96 with a 2400 spin rate on the breaking ball), and on-mound poise. We have him evaluated the way we would an older high school arm who could go anywhere from the third to fifth round in the draft.

Witherspoon benefitted from a big draft spring for Tulane, jumping from two campaigns with a .700-something OPS to a 1.023 OPS and 33 extra base hits in 58 games. The upside here still isn’t huge, with all five tools right around average, but Witherspoon has the feel to hit and defend such that he could be a good platoon outfielder who can play all three spots and get a bulk of the at-bats. The realistic outcome if the bat plays and the 22-year-old moves relatively quickly through the minors is a 450 plate appearance outfielder with fringy offense who plays above average corner defense.

It’s not abundantly clear whether or not Rodriguez will be able to catch as, at age 18, he’s already a pretty big, long-levered kid who was initially unsure if he even wanted to try it. But Rodriguez can really hit. He has excellent timing, bat control, and feel for all-fields contact, and he can open up and get his barrel on pitches inside. He might end up at first base or in an outfield corner, but he might hit enough to profile at those spots and if he can catch, his ceiling is sizable.

Munoz signed for $442,000 in the 2017 July 2nd period as a second-tier projection arm in the class and he’s already showing some progress just over a year after signing. He’s 6-foot-4, 170 pounds, with an easy delivery and was already touching 95 mph this summer in the DSL, showing starter traits and spinning a solid average curveball at times. Munoz is roughly the same age and competition level as Taj Bradley, who is a few spots ahead of Munoz on the list. Munoz may have a hair more upside due to projection but Bradley has been seen a lot by scouts over the past year while Munoz was very lightly seen, so we’re in a bit of wait-and-see mode here.

45 FV Prospects

Casas was one of the more heavily scouted underclassman high school prospects in recent memory, and stood out hitting in the heart of the lineup for South Florida powerhouse American Heritage and various Team USA squads, and at travel showcases and tournaments. Some of this success was probably because Casas was one of the oldest prospects in the 2019 graduating class, which prompted him to accelerate his schooling in 2017 and reclassify for the 2018 draft. Moving up a year made him age-appropriate for a high schooler in their draft year; at 18.4, he was basically average for a prep player. With the early-career acclaim came a change in the way opposing pitchers approached Casas. They began to pitch around him, and scouts often left Casas games having seen him swing just once or twice because he was constantly walking. Luckily Casas had a long track record of hitting in games, participated in multiple home run derbies during his amateur summers, and posted gaudy exit velocities during team pre-draft workouts, so clubs knew what his offensive potential was. He has good hands and a plus arm that helped him pitch into the low-90’s on the mound, but is a well-below average runner with poor lateral mobility. He played third base after signing (though mostly during instructs, as Casas injured his thumb sliding for a ground ball in June, needed surgery, and barely played during the summer) but expectations are he’ll move across the diamond to first base in 2019 or 2020, where we think he’ll be quite good. Casas’ calling card is his bat and there’s potential for a 60 hit, 70 game power, 80 raw power kind of package. The margin for error for a teenage first base-only types is very small, but we’re very high on Casas’ bat.

We have the scowling Hernandez projected into a relief role and think his stuff is on par with many of the best lefty relievers in baseball. Developed as a starter to this point, he has well-below average control and likely wouldn’t throw enough strikes to go more than two or three innings a game in a big league rotation. In relief though, he could be incredible. His fastball is hard and comes in with tough angle. It has natural cut when Hernandez is locating it to his glove side, and with it, he misses bats away from lefties who swing inside its break. Both of his secondary offerings are capable of missing bats but the same mechanical repetition issues that plague Hernandez’s command cause them to be inconsistent. At times, he’ll flash a plus-plus breaking ball; at others, the pitch isn’t located near enough to the plate to entice hitters. And so, projected roles for Hernandez vary depending on the evaluator’s degree of confidence in his ability to tighten up his command. On stuff, he has a chance to be a high-leverage arm, and one of the top 30 or so relievers in baseball.

Chavis was a well-known Atlanta-area prep prospect, who in high school was a strong statistical performer with easy plus raw power that showed up in games. He didn’t have a clear positional fit as an amateur, and that’s still mostly the case now–he was a shortstop in high school but wasn’t an athletic fit there, tried catching, which didn’t work, and scouts generally projected third base or first base long term. Though he has mostly played third, pro scouts see Chavis as a first base-only type, and he started seeing time there during the 2017 Fall League and again late in 2018. He missed much of 2018 with an 80-game PED suspension, which ominously came after a breakout 2017 campaign during which he hit 31 homers. He has now reached Triple-A, and had a strong half-season after the suspension was up, but scouts are wary of being all-in on a player whose entire profile is dependent on power and who has also had a recent PED suspension. One-dimensional hitters who are limited on defense tend to end up in a first base platoon (and in this case, it’d be the lesser side of one) or as a low-end starter like Kevin Millar. Either way, it seems unlikely a high-payroll, contending club like Boston would wait for a young player with limited upside to break in as an everyday player. We think Chavis is a low-end regular, who may be trade bait once he further establishes his level of performance post-suspension.

40+ FV Prospects

Flores, who received the second highest bonus in the Red Sox 2017 international class at $1.4 million — just behind Danny Diaz’s $1.6 million — was the buzz of the Southwest Florida instructional league and has exciting potential. After dominating the DSL during the summer, Flores got a late call-up and played two games in the GCL before his summer was shortened by a minor injury. He reminds some scouts of a potential everyday shortstop who takes a few games to grow on you. Unlike many high-bonus July 2nd prospects, Flores doesn’t have loud, flashy tools, or exceptional twitch or physical projection. He’s more of the steady, low-key type of player with excellent feel for defense (common among prospects from Venezuela, where there’s more of a game-focused development) and high-quality contact. He projects to be an above-average bat with average raw power and the swing attributes to have a chance to get to most of it. Deceptively quick for his size, Flores has average speed and the defensive instincts to cover more ground than his raw foot speed indicates, as well as a plus arm. There’s a chance he outgrows shortstop, but he’d likely be at least above-average, if not plus, at third base in that event. It may be a card full of 5’s (except for arm strength) on the 2-8 scale, with very little pro experience, but scouts are excited about what little they’ve seen here and think Flores could be a first division regular if the bat develops enough.

Houck was a projection prep arm from Illinois whose price was just high enough to get him to Missouri. He had a big freshman year there and then had a national coming-out party as the ace of Team USA that summer. Houck continued at about that level for the next two seasons, slinging in a heavy, 91-96 mph sinker from a low slot with a deceptive, crossfire delivery. He threw strikes and had a plus slider. Scouts who weren’t as enthusiastic about Houck’s changeup, or arm slot, or the length of his arm action, saw a reliever. His stuff would flatten out and his command would back up as he fatigued into the late stages of some starts. The Red Sox had Houck change his delivery and arm action for the first half-dozen or so starts in 2018, focusing on a more traditional four-seam fastball approach. It didn’t work, and Boston let Houck go back to what he had been doing later in the year; his dominant final two months of 2018 reflect his comfort with this approach. We think the likely outcome here is a multi-inning power reliever who dominates righties with strikeouts and groundballs, though some see a starter in the mold of Justin Masterson. Either way, Houck should move quickly, especially if he’s only asked to face a lineup once or twice per outing.

The amateur side of the scouting industry is fearful of prep bats from the Northeast because they face bad pitching during the spring, and are tough to evaluate as hitters. This, coupled with Decker’s slightly advanced age relative to other high schoolers, as well as a deep, late first and early second round group of high school outfielders pushed him into the second round despite having first round physical ability. Decker is a high-effort player with good instincts on the bases and in the field. He probably doesn’t have the pure speed for center but has a small hope of staying there based on his feel. Even when he likely moves to a corner, there’s enough power for Decker to profile as an everyday player provided he hits enough, and early returns on his bat in pro ball (he missed GCL time due to a wrist fracture but played during instructs) are very strong.

There isn’t much precedent for sustained big league success when hitters run strikeout rates as high as Dalbec’s (he’s struggled badly with whiffs since college), but his combination of power and defensive ability give him significant upside if he grows into even a 40 bat. Breaking balls especially flummox him, even when they hang and appear hittable. Mike Olt, Juan Francisco, Matt Davidson, and Pedro Alvarez are recent examples of players with offensive skills who struggled to overcome their issues with strikeouts. But Dalbec is also more athletic than most of those low-contact, corner sluggers, and looked great at third base during the Fall League. Realistically, Dalbec’s issues limit him to a bench or platoon role, which is largely enabled by his ability to play third base well. But because there’s superlative power here, the ceiling is sky high if things suddenly click with the bat. Dalbec also spent time pitching in college (he was 91-93 with an average slider), a secondary skill that is of increasing interest to teams, though it’s still just largely considered to be a parlor trick to show off during a blowout.

As early as his freshman year of high school, Groome was pegged by those who scouted him as a potential high first round pick. He had a silky smooth delivery and projectable frame, with average big league stuff almost two years before he was even eligible to be drafted. His stuff just ticked up from there, and arguably peaked the summer before his draft year, when Groome would work 92-96 mph in short stints, worked with an easy plus curveball, mixed in an average to above changeup, and did it with that big, athletic frame and a starter’s delivery, all of which led to being a first overall pick favorite at the time. But a myriad of concerns unrelated to Groome’s talent dogged him more than most prep prospects. That, combined with a quickly thickening frame, contributed to his fall out of the top 10 picks of the 2016 draft. Since signing, Groome hasn’t been on the mound much, making just 17 total pro starts due to a back injury and an eventual Tommy John surgery. He’s slated to return to the mound in June or July of 2019. Some scouts are still wary of his high school off-field issues and maxed-out frame, seeing a bunch of 50 or 55 attributes aside from his plus curveball. Those who are still on board note that his changeup was improving and his velo was regularly up to 96 mph prior to surgery, leading them to think that he was just getting back on track. Proponents expect him to pick up where he left off and reach the No. 2 or 3 starter upside he seemed to have at age 17.

40 FV Prospects

Mata’s conditioning, velocity, and control all fluctuated wildly throughout 2018, and he ended up walking 58 hitters in 72 innings before his season ended in late July due to back tightness. That’s not to say the industry expected Mata to perform. When he began his season at Hi-A, he was only 18 and the youngest pitcher in the league by a wide margin. He was sent to the Futures Game in July despite these struggles because his stuff is quite good. Mata worked more with a two-seamer in 2018 and his ground ball rate rose to 57%. His low, three-quarters slot creates movement on his changeup that pairs well with the two-seamer and also gives right-handed hitters a tougher look at his loopy curveball. He could have four above-average pitches at peak if you count the four- and two-seamers as two separate offerings, but none of it will matter if Mata’s 2018 strike-throwing is the norm going forward. The consensus is that he has feel for creating effective movement on his pitches but not for locating them yet. Proponents think due to his age that Mata will improve and become a No. 4 starter. Detractors are skeptical of his athleticism, his ability to repeat and throw strikes, or both.

Two elbow fractures halved Lakins’ 2016 and 2017 seasons and caused him to break camp late in 2018. He was quickly moved to the bullpen last year, and had a healthy, successful season that ended with him claiming a spot on the 40-man. Lakins works a lot with a low-90s cutter that has enough length to miss bats away from righties. After peppering his glove side with cutters, he can throw riding, mid-90s four seamers past hitters at the top of the strike zone, which then sets up his 12-6 curveball beneath it. Relievers with four viable pitches are rare, and Lakins has the stuff to play a valuable multi-inning relief role, though single-inning usage might give him the best shot at staying healthy.

If forced to pick one prospect from the 2018 draft to throw a big league inning tomorrow, we might pick Feltman, who has an electric fastball/slider combination. As a junior, Feltman struck out 43 batters and walked just six in 24.1 innings, and tied the TCU school record for saves despite being injured for some of his junior year. His fastball is hard and comes in at a tough angle, while his slider has bat-missing vertical action. Barring injury, Feltman should be a quick-moving reliever and has a chance to turn into a late-inning arm.

Chatham played on Miami-area powerhouse high school team American Heritage with Zack Collins, and stood out defensively for being a long-limbed athlete with a plus arm and above average defensive ability. Collins went to Miami and became a top ten pick while Chatham went to Florida Atlanta and became a second round talent. Over 2.5 seasons, he has played only 156 games due to multiple injuries. He has viable infield defensive ability and above-average bat control with some doubles pop, but also has some clear offensive limitations. He had a mostly healthy 2018 at Hi-A, and should begin 2019 on the doorstep of a big league utility role.

The trajectory of Duran’s summer and fall rise is unique. During collegiate scrimmages in the fall of 2017, scouts saw a big, athletic second baseman who was just okay defensively, had an all-fields, line drive approach without much pop, and plus to plus-plus speed. Duran had a fine junior spring, but hit for almost no power (which perhaps should be expected in a pitcher-friendly home stadium like Blair Field in Long Beach) and slipped to the seventh round as a nearly-22-year-old with a modest statistical track record. After signing, the Red Sox had Duran change his swing a bit in BP to see if they could tap into something more, and the 6-foot-2, 200-pound Duran started showing above-average pull power. Boston also moved him to center field, where his long-range speed fits better than it did on the infield. He crushed short season and Low-A after signing. For Long Beach State, Duran had 13 extra base hits in 253 PA in 2018; across two pro levels, he had 28 extra base hits in 302 PA, including 11 triples. There are multiple examples of hitters, including Matt Chapman and several of the Stanford guys, who had breakouts after leaving overly-traditional west coast college hitting programs. Duran may be the most recent.

Howlett was a known prospect in Florida for years and was on a trajectory to go in the top five rounds after a strong start to his spring, but he finished poorly, including a brutal NHSI tournament where all 30 teams had multiple scouts on hand. Howlett swung and missed a ton in front of dozens of high level evaluators, when many had pegged him as the sleeper prospect to break out at the event. The Red Sox found after signing him that he had an issue with his contacts, giving him particular trouble in day games (which all of the games at NHSI were), and got him squared away before his pro career began. Howlett hit six homers in 43 pro games with a manageable strikeout rate that surprised many amateur scouts who had discounted his hitting ability earlier that year. He’s often compared to Northcut since they both play third base and were widely-scouted later-round finds for Boston. Howlett has a little better feel to hit and ability to tap into his power in game situations, but is a little behind Northcut defensively.

Jimenez is a scout favorite and probably the highest-rated of the true sleepers on this list. The Sox 2017 international signing class is already paying dividends with Flores, Jimenez, Bello and Diaz all among the org’s top 20 prospects while none have played longer than a week in the GCL. Jimenez is described as a running back playing baseball due to his sneaky athleticism in a compact frame, his all-out style, and standout work ethic. Depending on whom you ask, he’s either a 70 or 80 runner, but his instincts on the bases and in the field aren’t up to snuff just yet. Since there isn’t much raw power presently, he plays more of a slap-and-dash, small-ball game that accentuates his speed. This limits his upside a bit, but when you look back at prospects who outplay their projections, scouts will often point to a name and tell you not to underrate plus athletes with plus makeup; we were aggressive in ranking Jimenez for that reason.

Shawaryn’s prospect stock peaked when he was a dominant college sophomore at Maryland. Injury and a downtick in stuff plagued him as a junior and he fell to the fifth round of his draft. Shawaryn has traversed the whole of the minors as a starter but ultimately might fit best in relief due to some of his stuff’s limitations. He has a funky, low-slot delivery that creates cuttery, horizontal movement on his slider; it’s his best way to miss bats. His changeup and fastball (which was only in the upper-80s for much of his time in the Arizona Fall League) are both fringy on their own but play up a bit due to the deceptive funk in his delivery. Shawaryn fits in a No. 5 starter/swingman relief role, and could be ready in 2019.

As rare as complete games have become at the big league level, they’re even rarer in the minors, where developmental caution takes precedence over single-game results. A hyper-efficient strike-thrower, Reyes threw two complete games in 2018 (and needed less than 100 pitches in both) and also had an 8-inning outing against Columbia in July. Though he doesn’t throw that hard, Reyes’ propels himself way down the mound and has super long arms that help him generate big extension, which help his upper-80s fastball play like one in the low-90s. His fastball angle isn’t great for missing bats, but his changeup and curveball are both effective, though not dominant, alternatives. Reyes profiles as an efficient backend starter.

A hard-throwing, flexible teenage righty who had a strong summer in the DSL, Bello came stateside for a single GCL outing, then later went to instructional league for shorter outings during which he’d flash three above-average pitches. His build and arm action both portend greater, potentially significant velocity. He has No. 4 starter stuff if things come together, but he’s probably several years away.

Diaz was the Red Sox top international signing in 2017, getting $1.6 million, just ahead of now-superior prospect Antoni Flores’ $1.4 million bonus. Diaz was solid in the DSL last year and made his stateside debut during instructional league. He’s already a big kid — scouts estimate 6-foot-3 and 225 pounds or so, much more than where he’s listed — and he’s unlikely to be a third baseman long term, but players this young still have the opportunity to reshape their bodies pretty significantly. He has plus arm strength and raw power, but there’s also some question about how much he’ll hit, due to an aggressive, power-first approach that needs to be dialed in. Diaz is limited to a corner and there are questions about his position and hitting ability, so he’s a wait-and-see case for now, but he has ceiling because of the power and could generate above-average offense as a third baseman.

Northcut drew wide-ranging takes from scouts in the year leading up to signing with the Red Sox as an 11th rounder from an Ohio high school. He played on the Evoshield Canes, the top travel team in the country, and was scouted often, with a decent but not great glove at third base, above average to plus power, and some feel for hitting and game power, but seemed a mid-round prospect. In the spring and into pro ball, Northcut slimmed up a bit and now projects as at least average at third base, with similar raw power, but some pro scouts questioned his feel to hit. All the elements have been there at some point over the past year and some amateur scouts were really in on Northcut — one said he saw a lot of Austin Riley in him — but didn’t realize his price would end up being as low as it was once he started sliding in the draft.

After pushing him very quickly at the onset of his pro career, in 2018 the Red Sox throttled down Raudes’ development and had him repeat Hi-A. He regressed statistically (his strikeout rate was down, and his walk rate stayed just below average after regressing in 2017) before he succumbed to a June elbow injury that cost him the remainder of his summer. Raudes started throwing harder in 2018 and remains a projectable, athletic 20-year-old with a great arm action and some changeup feel. That’s still a lot of good stuff, even though other aspects of his profile have either plateaued or gone backward. We hope the fastball control comes back and think Raudes can pitch at the back of a rotation if it does.

Oddly, because four-pitch lefties with command typically find their way into a rotation, Poyner has run the pro ball gamut exclusively as a reliever, with a long track record of performance in that role. His changeup is excellent, but the rest of his stuff is largely enabled by his command. He’s a big league-ready middle reliever.

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Campana has strikeout issues that are fed by lever length and mediocre bat control, but he still got to much of his considerable raw power in 2018 and logged 42 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old in full-season ball. A wiry 6-foot-4, Campana could have plus raw power at maturity, which would carry a corner outfield profile if he can hit enough. Successful outcomes for skillsets like this can still be volatile at the big league level, with Domingo Santana and Avisail Garcia as contemporary examples.

Diaz had a strong 2018 repeating Low-A as a 21-year-old (153 innings, 147 K, 39 BB, 53% GB%). He’s a husky, low-slot, pitchability lefty with a rainbow curveball and average changeup. The changeup may need to get a bit better to keep righties from teeing off on his fastball, but Diaz also hides the ball really well and can throw his curveball for strikes in fastball counts, so perhaps he already does enough to make the lack of velocity matter less. He profiles as an innings-eating No. 5 starter or long reliever.

Lopez was the Red Sox top signing in the 2018 July 2nd period and the club thinks they have one of the safer bets in the class, due to his feel to hit and instincts. Some scouts saw Lopez without much power and with fringy speed and arm strength, but as is the nature of international showcases, often clubs get a look or two at a player when he is 14 or 15 years old, then won’t see him again until instructional league almost 18 months later. Players can change significantly from those limited and early looks, while feel for hitting and defensive instincts are often not obvious unless the club puts in extra work, which not all clubs can do for every player. The Red Sox and rival scouts see an above average bat, average speed, and feel for the game. Some clubs see that as a bat-first left fielder with limited projection, while the Red Sox see a center fielder with a plus bat, a combo that can post a sneaky 3-win season every now and then.

After four fruitless pro seasons as an outfielder, Aybar moved to the mound in 2018. He spent most of his 2018 season in Florida — first in extended spring training, then the GCL, then Instructional League — throwing really hard (94-97, up to 100) and flashing the occasional above-average slider. Without context, Aybar is raw for a 21-year-old but perhaps someone so new to pitching, with this kind of arm strength and fledgling feel for spin, has potential for growth. Aybar is Rule 5 eligible next year.

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Alonso followed up a breakout 2017 with a minor league leading 36-home run 2018 campaign split between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A launching pad Las Vegas. In addition to clubbing the most home runs, Alonso hit some of 2018’s loudest individual blasts. He had the most prolific batting practice session at the Futures Game, then threatened a passing satellite with a titanic seventh-inning homer off of a grooved, 95 mph Adonis Medina fastball. He exceeded Mets Statcast-era records on a ball in play in the Arizona Fall League, out-hit Vlad Guerrero, Jr. during Fall Stars BP, then homered the opposite way off a 103 mph Nate Pearson fastball in the game. This is what top-of-the-scale, strength-driven raw power looks like, and it drives an excellent version of a profile we’re typically quite bearish on: the heavy-bodied, right/right first baseman. Alonso is tough to beat with velocity because his swing is compact and even when he’s a little late, he’s capable of muscling mis-hit balls out the other way. After some adjustment, Fall League pitching chose to attack him beneath the knees, and well-located pitches down there were successful, but Alonso crushes mistake breaking balls that catch too much of the zone. We think a typical Alonso season will look like something between what C.J. Cron and Jesus Aguilar did last year, depending on whether the 2018 uptick in Alonso’s walk rate holds water or not. He makes some nice effort-based plays at first base, but as a feet and hands athlete, Alonso is well below average. Perhaps more notable than what we anticipate will be several years of mashing in the heart of the Mets lineup, Alonso is also a favorite to become the poster child for player compensation reform. Already near the center of public discourse regarding teams’ suppression of prospect promotion, he is 24 years old and has a skillset and body type at heightened risk to enter physical decline relatively early. With his early-career earning power stifled by his parent club, Alonso might start to show signs of physical regression during his arbitration years and also struggle to find a lucrative market in free agency. His free agency is timed awkwardly between what will probably be the next two CBA negotiations, but otherwise the circumstances indicate his situation could one day be a focal point for change.

While evaluations of his defense are universally strong, assessments of Gimenez’s bat vary significantly depending on when he was seen. He looked like a well-rounded, first-division player while he was hitting with pleasantly surprising power (.282/.343/.432 with 30 extra-base hits in 85 games) at Hi-A St. Lucie during the season’s first half, but like much less of one during a rough six weeks in the Arizona Fall League. In Fall League, Gimenez looked physically overmatched at the plate, likely due to exhaustion. He was still 19 when the Mets promoted him to Double-A for the season’s final six weeks, and his sophomoric body had endured a 122-game season against older, more physically developed athletes before he had even set foot in Arizona. It’s fair to project Gimenez to add strength, but because his frame is small, it’ll probably be just the kind of strength that gives him season-long stamina, not huge raw power. But while big raw power is unlikely, if his feel for contact is refined in a way that prioritizes lift, it’s possible that Gimenez will end up hitting for more power than we project in the same way Ozzie Albies has. Gimenez has excellent natural bat control and can pull his hands in to get the barrel on pitches that would jam other hitters, and he has feel for fully extending on balls away from him and roping them into the opposite-field gap. If he does, he might end up hitting a ton of doubles and out-slug our projections without hitting a lot of home runs, or he may naturally start lifting the ball like Albies did. In general, we like Gimenez as an above-average defensive middle infielder with advanced contact skills. We think he’ll be a solid-average everyday player, and while we think it’s unlikely, we can see a developmental path that leads to better production than that.

Much of scouting teenage prospects has to do with identifying good athletes and good frames, and like many of this century’s All-Star, power-hitting shortstops, Ronny Mauricio is both. A broad-shouldered but lean 6-foot-3, Mauricio looks like Manny Machado, and Hanley Ramirez, and Carlos Correa, and a host of other super talents all did at age 17: long-limbed, with surprising grace, flexibility, and coordination for someone this age and size, and possessed of physical gifts that might enable them to stay at shortstop while also growing into huge power. The Goldilocks Zone. But Mauricio is also more than just a frame/athleticism/projection bet. He has relatively advanced feel to hit for a teenage switch-hitter, his timing is fine, and he hasn’t exhibited any confidence-altering, contact-related red flags, like lever length or poor plate discipline. He may outgrow shortstop but if he does, it means big power on a plus-gloved third baseman. We were surprised by Mauricio’s GCL assignment, and then surprised further by both his admirable statistical performance there and his late-season promotion to Kingsport. He might be ushered through the system more quickly than we anticipated when he signed. Regardless of where he’s playing, once Mauricio turns a physical corner, he’s likely to rocket up this list.

Vientos got on the national scouting stage as a prep underclassman when he flashed first round tools despite being very young for his draft class, which is pretty unusual. He didn’t hit as much as expected as a senior and some scouts questioned his defensive ability, competitiveness, and feel to hit, so he slipped to the second round despite flashing big power and being 17 on draft day, something that is generally really attractive to analytically-leaning clubs. Vientos performed fine in his pro debut, but broke out in his second year, crushing the Appalachian League at age 18 in 2018. He controlled the strike zone and hit for power while exhibiting very high exit velos for someone his age. Vientos is advanced mechanically, making him a potential 6 bat/6 power combination at maturity if he continues at this trajectory. The competitiveness that some scouts questioned showed up in 2018 when Jarred Kelenic arrived in Kingsport and became the top prospect on the team, and then when Ronny Mauricio, Luis Santana, and Shervyen Newton were all top 10 prospects in the system in an infield time-share with him. If the makeup has turned a corner and the hitting continues to progress, the main issue will be defensive fit. Vientos is a well below average runner who one scout described as ‘athletic from the knees up,’ to the point where the lack of quickness will limit him to being average defensively, but he’s far from that right now. One Mets source drew a parallel to Nolan Arenado’s makeup and defensive concerns, which quickly evaporated in the upper minors as he turned into the best third baseman in baseball, but that seems unlikely at this point.

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Newton was the best of a small contingent of prospects who the Mets pushed right past the GCL and straight to advanced rookie-level Kingsport for their first American summer. There, Newton outperformed even the most optimistic expectations, hitting .280/.408/.449 with 23 extra-base hits. Newton is much more of a physical marvel on which to dream than he is a polished performer. At a very projectable 6-foot-4, he’s the size of an NFL wide receiver prospect and already has considerable raw power that projects to plus at maturity. It’s rare for infielders this size to stay at shortstop, but Newton looks natural and comfortable there even though he clearly hasn’t totally grown into his body yet and appears uncoordinated at other times. Even if he outgrows short, switch-hitting third basemen with power are extremely valuable. Newton has less bat control and feel to hit than his .280 batting average would otherwise indicate, and there’s a chance he’s always strikeout prone and doesn’t get to some of his power. But it’s unreasonable to expect a switch-hitting teenager this size to have fully sentient bat control, and the ceiling on Newton if everything actualizes is superstardom. This is one of the more high-variance prospects in the minor leagues.

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Peterson was a known prep prospect as an underclassman in Colorado due to his 6-foot-6 frame and ability to touch 90 mph from the left side at an early age. The limitation here is that Peterson has essentially never had a plus pitch and doesn’t project to have one, working downhill from a steep plane and great extension with a low-90’s sinker and an above-average four pitch mix. He doesn’t have high spin rates on his breaking stuff and pitches more to weak contact, looking like a steady, durable, roughly league-average starter even as a college player. His feel to pitch and mix offerings in different locations is advanced, so the expectation here is for Peterson to save the Mets some money on that No. 3 or 4 starter that so many teams overpay for in free agency.

An athletic, outwardly competitive two-way high schooler, Woods Richardson would also have been a prospect as a power-hitting third baseman were he not so good on the mound. His vertically oriented release point makes it hard for him to work his fastball east and west, and several teams had him evaluated as a future reliever before the draft because they saw a lack of fastball command. But this vertical release also enables him to effectively change hitters’ eye level by pairing fastballs up with breaking balls down, and he has a plus breaking ball. Woods Richardson works so quickly that it often makes hitters uncomfortable, though scouts love it. He’s also shown some nascent changeup feel, but it will be hard to turn the cambio over consistently from his arm slot. Though he was one of the 2018 draft’s youngest prospects, his frame is pretty mature, so we’re not rounding up on the fastball even though he’s still a teenager. His reasonable floor is that of a high-leverage or multi-inning reliever (a role that would seem to suit his fiery on-mound presence), but if a third impact pitch develops he could be a mid-rotation starter.

Szapucki is another player on this list who stood out early in his prep career, and ranked near the top of his class as a prep sophomore because he could get into the low-90s with a high-spin breaking ball from a tough arm slot. He slipped to the fifth round in his draft year as some scouts were worried his crossfire delivery was both an injury risk and the underlying reason for his command issues, and would be tough to “correct.” The injury concerns were mostly accurate, as Szapucki had shoulder soreness that led into Tommy John surgery in July 2017. He’s back on the mound and every indication is that he’ll be able to return to his prior form, when he dominated the minor leagues to the tune of 116 strikeouts to 30 walks over 18 appearances before his arm trouble. Szapucki gets into the mid-90s with a plus curveball and flashes an average changeup from that tough slot and knows how to use his stuff to elicit chase swings, even though his control is average at best. The Mets have no plans to develop him in the bullpen in the short-term, but it seems very possible that his durability and style of pitching may fit best in a Josh Hader-type role.

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21 months elapsed between when Kay signed his pro contract and when he finally threw a pitch in affiliated ball. UConn rode him hard during his junior year in Storrs. He faced 36 hitters in a March game the Huskies won 18-to-1. During conference tournament play, Kay threw a complete game, then pitched again during the tournament on three days rest; he threw 90 pitches amid an hour-long lightning delay. It was unsurprising when he blew out in the fall of 2016. When Kay finally returned last year, he looked markedly different than he did in college when he was a lefty changeup monster with mediocre velocity. Kay’s fastball has ticked up and now sits at about 93 mph instead of peaking there, and his two-plane breaking ball is better. His once-dominant changeup has regressed. There’s a strong chance Kay ends up as a good lefty reliever but if the changeup ever returns, he could be a No. 4 starter.

Lindsay was frustrating to scout as an amateur. He flashed plus speed, potential plus power, and plus bat speed, but also suffered through a number of nagging injuries on his way to being a speculative second round pick by the Mets. The raw tools have still been there in pro ball but so have the nagging injuries, mostly of the hamstring and elbow variety. Lindsay also hasn’t shown much bat control at any point in his career, so his path to success (after staying healthy) is as a lower average hitter with some power playing a solid average center field. He’ll find himself lower on this list if he doesn’t stay healthy and produce this year, but there’s a route for him to turn into a player along the lines of new Mets center fielder Keon Broxton.

Alvarez received one of the top bonuses in the most recent July 2nd class, signing for $2.7 million with the Mets. He’s a physically-mature Venezuelan catcher, a demographic with a solid track record, even more so when you consider that Alvarez himself has a long track record of hitting in games and some present raw power. He projects to stick behind the plate with solid defensive tools and enough athleticism, though some scouts are tougher on the finer points of his framing and throwing technique, which is pretty typical for a catching prospect this age. There isn’t a plus tool, but the now skills and hit tool, all at a premium position, makes Alvarez one of the safer bets in his class and among all prospects of this age.

40 FV Prospects

Kilome was markedly better after the Mets acquired him from Philadelphia for Asdrubal Cabrera ahead of the deadline. In seven starts with Binghamton, Kilome halved his walk rate (his strike % was up six percentage points), flashed a better changeup than he had earlier in the year, and turned in his best performance of the season, striking out 10 former Reading teammates on August 3rd. After things had plateaued for so long with Philly, he seemed to be improving. Then he broke, and at an unfortunate time. Tommy John in late October means Kilome, who’s already relatively raw for a prospect his age, may not throw another professional pitch until mid-2020, when he’s 25. We think this makes it significantly more likely that Kilome ends up in relief and while we think he could be a dominant three-pitch reliever, it has also delayed his timeline to the big leagues by perhaps two years, putting him in line to debut near the same time as similar talents who just wrapped a season in A-ball.

Toffey was scouted heavily as a senior in high school as his teammate, right-handed pitcher Austin DeCarr, went in the third round to the Yankees and signed for $1 million; Toffey was a Yankees’ 23rd round pick, but he ended up going to Vanderbilt. He was an eligible sophomore in 2016 but hadn’t progressed much in two years, still not showing much power or loft at the plate to make pitchers pay for using his eye to get into good counts. That changed in 2017, when Toffey’s OPS jumped 424 points. He went from 0 homers to 12 and cut his strikeout rate by over 5%, all while continuing to show above average defense at third base. Since he was 22 years old during that breakout season and has only average raw power, some scouts weren’t sold on Toffey’s everyday potential, so he lasted until the fourth round where Oakland took him. Toffey was traded to the Mets this summer in the Jeurys Familia trade. He needed to perform and move quickly through the minors to stay on schedule to reach his everyday upside and he’s mostly done that. Toffey will open in Double-A at age 24 and could get a big league look in late 2019 if he keeps hitting this way, but if he shows more corner platoon upside, as scouts expect him to, he’ll work through some growing pains in the upper levels this year.

Cortes was a bit of an oddity as a prep underclassman, a switch-thrower who played multiple positions and had elite bat control. His body went south a bit from that point and he’s lost some athleticism; he’s now a left fielder or first baseman after a stint at second base and a short-lived attempt to catch. Cortes has plus raw power and a good lefty swing with some bat control, but not as much as he used to have, and it’s further undermined by his power-based approach. He was streaky at South Carolina, getting hot in the second half of his draft year. Scouts who see him when he’s running well think he has elite offensive ability, and given the defensive and physical limitations, Cortes will have to be an elite offensive force to be more than a platoon corner bat. We’ll probably know if that’s possible in the next year or so.

Signed for $1.5 million in 2017, Hernandez is a physical power/speed center field prospect who showed a proclivity for pull-side lift as an amateur. Built like an M-80 at 5-foot-9, 210 pounds, Hernandez lacks body-based power projection, but he already has some pop, and his frame is so compact that it’d be surprising if he thickened enough to necessitate a move out of center field. He had a pull-heavy, somewhat limited approach to contact as an amateur, but his first pro summer was free of statistical red flags. How his bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline develop will dictate his future role, and it’s hard to have great feel for either of those variables. He’s here largely because we like the defensive profile and raw power.

Trenta-sized teenagers who throw in the mid-90s don’t typically have any idea where its going, but Santos threw strikes so efficiently for two months in the DSL that the Mets thought him fit for an August promotion. He made his stateside debut just before his 17th birthday and walked just six hitters in 50 innings all summer. So Santos has rare size, precocious velocity, and control, though much of the rest of the profile has room for improvement. He exhibits neither notable raw spin nor feel for locating his current breaking ball, a low-80s slurve. There’s a strong chance Santos tries several iterations of various breaking balls during the course of his development and the one(s) he ends up with will probably look much different than what he’s currently using. At this point in his development, we just care about the raw spin, a trait of limited malleability, and Santos’ is just okay. It’s reasonable to hope he grows into elite velocity. The fact that he’s throwing this hard at this age and at this size is encouraging, though he’s less projectable than one would probably assume given his age and height. All talk of Santos’ physical progression centers around reshaping his current frame rather than just adding mass, as he’s already pretty filled out. This clouds the fastball projection somewhat, but he’ll probably still end up throwing really hard. There’s need for significant development throughout the rest of the repertoire, and it’s more likely that a portion of that happens (resulting in a back-of-the rotation or bullpen role) than it is that all of it does (resulting in stardom). He signed for $250,000 in 2017.

Lockett, who made his major league debut in 2018, was first traded from San Diego to Cleveland for teenage right-handed pitcher Ignacio Feliz and then to the Mets in the Kevin Plawecki deal later in the offseason. He has a mid-90s sinker that has significant tail when Lockett is locating it to his arm side, but it’s hittable and straight in most parts of the strike zone. His fastball’s movement pairs well with a power, mid-80s changeup that also has arm side action; Lockett works left-handed hitters away with these two offerings. His curveball has good shape and bite, but Lockett struggles to set it up for whiffs because his fastball is hittable in the top of the zone. He needs a weapon that works in on the hands of lefties, like a cutter. If he can find one, he’ll be a fine backend starter.

Haggerty was acquired from Cleveland in the January Kevin Plawecki trade. He’s an athletic, multi-positional defender with hands, actions, and arm strength enabling him to play all over the infield, and speed that might make him a plus corner outfield defender as he continues to play and learn the position. A switch-hitter with a simple swing and conservative approach to contact, Haggarty’s best offensive skill is his eye for the strike zone, which has enabled him to walk at a 13% career clip. He is limited from both a power and bat-to-ball standpoint, so it’s possible his patience will be irrelevant if big league pitching decides he’s not a threat to do damage on his own and make it a point to let him put the ball in play. Through Double-A, though, this hasn’t happened. The oft-injured Haggerty fell all the way to the 25th round of the 2015 draft because he dealt with an oblique injury during his draft year and underperformed. His oblique was an issue again in 2017 and he missed some time with a shoulder issue during the early part of 2018. He projects as a versatile defensive replacement and pinch runner.

Dibrell looked like a second round talent at times in college but his velocity and command varied pretty wildly during his draft year at Kennesaw State, and he fell to the fourth round. In his first pro season Dibrell, though somewhat old for the league, tied for the Sally League lead in strikeouts. His velocity held in the low-90s all year and his combination of mechanical deception and four viable pitches projects to fit in the back of a rotation.

Precipitation and misfortune forced Double-A Binghamton to play three double-headers in a row in late May (not on consecutive days, but still) and, suddenly, the club was in need of pitching reinforcements. The Mets promoted James directly from extended spring training to make a spot start, just three days after his 20th birthday. It’s further evidence of James’ advanced on-mound craftsmanship, which enables him to succeed with limited stuff. He has now had two strong years of performance at short-season affiliates on the back of a sinking and tailing upper-80s fastball and a slurvy 78-82 mph breaking ball. James’ delivery is pretty rough but it doesn’t appear to detract from his command, and it may actually help make him tougher for hitters to time. Little things like that are important, as his stuff exists on the margins. If his command maxes out, he’ll be a sinker balling backend starter.

Gilliam was the ace starter for one of the most prospect-laden prep teams in the country in 2015, Kennesaw Mountain HS, which was led by 11th overall pick catcher Tyler Stephenson (Reds) and center fielder Reggie Pruitt (Blue Jays), who got a $500,000 bonus in the 24th round. Gilliam could’ve received a low-to-mid six figure bonus out of high school, but instead went to Clemson, where he mostly relieved, a role that agrees with his aggressive approach and standout fastball/curveball combination. Gilliam’s command backed up a bit in 2018, which is why he lasted until the fifth round despite being the sort of up-in-the-zone four-seam fastball and power curveball reliever that clubs now favor due to TrackMan data. If he can dial in his delivery and command, there’s quick-moving setup man potential for the 22-year-old.

35+ FV Prospects

Cecchini posted promising strikeout and walk rates in the early part of his career and then suddenly began hitting for power in 2015 and 2016 at Vegas before returning to career norms in 2017. On paper, Cecchini was very intriguing as a young pro because he played shortstop and had such terrific control of the strike zone, but eyeball evaluations were more generic, indicating a bench role at best, and were incongruous with Cecchini’s performance, especially when he suddenly had power. He was sidelined for much of 2018 after he was struck by a pitch on the foot, but he put enough balls in play to note that his pull rate was up and his ground ball rate was down, and a hitter with this kind of innate talent would suddenly become very interesting if a swing change were to coax out some more power. At 25, Cecchini is probably just an up/down utility type, but that’s also what we thought about Jeff McNeil at this time last year.

Meyer is a pretty straightforward prospect, easier to project with fewer unknowns that the teenage prospects in this area of the list. Meyer is an accomplished defender, with a plus arm and at least above average defensive ability. He has some pop (45 raw power, game power below that) and is a solid athlete, but there isn’t much impact with the bat. He leans more contact-oriented in his approach, but often won’t make consistent hard contact, with some timing, pitch recognition, and plate coverage shortcomings at present. He seems likely to reach the upper minors and with some improvement, would get on a 40-man roster and get at least some big league time. If he can improve a little more offensively, then he could carve out a solid career as a backup.

Ryan stood out as a prep sophomore for his big raw power and arm strength, both as a catcher and a pitcher in the low-90s on the mound. He peaked early in that regard, signing for $100,000 late in the 2016 draft when his catching and hitting didn’t progress and he was mostly just a mid-90s arm that occasionally showed command or a breaking ball. That projection has mostly held, as three years later Ryan has reached Double-A as a short reliever, but his breaking ball is consistently average to above and his command has improved, so there’s a clear path to becoming a middle reliever. The Mets acquired him in late 2017 in the Jay Bruce deal with Cleveland.

Humphreys jumped on most fans’ radar when the 18th round pick, who signed for $150,000 out of a Florida high school, put up gaudy numbers over 26 starts in 2016 and 2017, before needing Tommy John surgery in August of 2017. He should be back on the mound in 2019, but there isn’t as much upside as his numbers would suggest, even if everything comes back as it was before. Humphreys works with three pitches that are all average to slightly above to go with similar command, but his control is above average. The upside is as a No. 4 starter and the reasonable expectation is more of a No. 5 starter, spot starter, or long reliever. This is the kind of pitcher who will excel statistically in the lower levels, where hitters generally aren’t selective and aren’t used to a pitcher who can command three MLB-quality pitches, but that’s the expectation in Double-A. Humphreys is another in a long line of a stated Mets draft strategy: low-bonus, later-round high school pitchers (all from Florida in this case) like John Gant, Erik Manoah, and Christian James. Saul Gonzalez from the 2018 draft, Bryce Hutchinson from 2017, and a couple others in the ‘wait and see’ bucket also fit this description.