Archive for Prospects

Daily Prospect Notes: 4/22/19

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Yordan Alvarez, 1B, Houston Astros
Level: Triple-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: 7   FV: 50
Line: 2-for-4, HR, 2B

Notes
It’s important that we look at Triple-A statistical performances (especially in the PCL) in a different light given what is transpiring with the baseball itself, but we can still appreciate Alvarez’s blistering start with that in mind. After a little over two weeks, he’s slugging .870; nine of his 17 hits have been home runs, and he has one more walk than strikeout thus far. He’s played eight games in left field, five at DH, two at first base, and one in right field. Most all of Houston’s big league hitters are mashing right now (Tyler White is hitting lefties, at least), so there’s not an obvious short-term path to big league playing time here. If anyone goes down though, perhaps Alvarez will get the call instead of a struggling Kyle Tucker. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 41 Prospects: Minnesota Twins

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Minnesota Twins. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Twins Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Royce Lewis 19.9 A+ SS 2020 65
2 Alex Kirilloff 21.5 A+ RF 2020 60
3 Brusdar Graterol 20.7 AA RHP 2021 50
4 Trevor Larnach 22.2 A+ RF 2020 50
5 Wander Javier 20.3 R SS 2022 45+
6 Jhoan Duran 21.3 A+ RHP 2022 45
7 Jose Miranda 20.8 A+ 2B 2022 45
8 Yunior Severino 19.6 A 2B 2023 45
9 Brent Rooker 24.5 AAA 1B 2019 40+
10 Ryan Jeffers 22.1 A+ C 2021 40+
11 Willians Astudillo 27.5 MLB 1B 2019 40+
12 Luis Arraez 22.0 AA 2B 2019 40+
13 Lewis Thorpe 23.4 AAA LHP 2019 40
14 Misael Urbina 17.0 R CF 2023 40
15 Jordan Balazovic 20.6 A RHP 2020 40
16 LaMonte Wade Jr 25.3 AAA LF 2019 40
17 Ben Rortvedt 21.6 A+ C 2021 40
18 Luis Rijo 20.6 A+ RHP 2022 40
19 Nick Gordon 23.5 AAA 2B 2019 40
20 Gilberto Celestino 20.2 AA CF 2021 40
21 Jovani Moran 22.0 AA LHP 2019 40
22 Devin Smeltzer 23.6 AA LHP 2019 40
23 Blayne Enlow 20.1 A RHP 2022 40
24 Akil Baddoo 20.7 A+ CF 2021 40
25 Luke Raley 24.6 AAA 1B 2020 40
26 Jorge Alcala 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
27 Gabriel Maciel 20.3 A CF 2022 40
28 Prelander Berroa 19.0 R RHP 2022 40
29 Cole Sands 21.8 A RHP 2021 40
30 Travis Blankenhorn 22.7 A+ 2B 2020 40
31 Stephen Gonsalves 24.8 MLB LHP 2019 40
32 Kai-Wei Teng 20.4 R RHP 2023 40
33 Ryan Costello 22.9 A+ 1B 2021 40
34 Landon Leach 19.8 R RHP 2023 40
35 Griffin Jax 24.4 AA RHP 2020 40
36 Carlos Aguiar 17.6 R OF 2023 35+
37 Johan Quezada 24.7 A+ RHP 2020 35+
38 DaShawn Keirsey 21.9 A CF 2022 35+
39 Charles Mack 19.4 R 2B 2023 35+
40 Michael Helman 22.9 A+ 2B 2022 35+
41 Lewin Diaz 22.4 A+ 1B 2021 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter
All

65 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from JSerra HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 19.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 188 Bat / Thr R / R FV 65
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 50/55 40/50 60/60 40/50 55/55

Lewis was on the scouting radar early in his high school career in southern California, starring for one of the top programs in the country and showing above average tools at an early stage. Toward the end of showcase season, scouts started throwing around Derek Jeter comparisons, saying that Lewis had a similar frame with chance for a 70 bat, 55 raw power, and the possibility to stick at shortstop with some work. Others saw closer to a 50 or 55 bat and a center fielder, and his draft spring was up-and-down, with scouts that charted all of his games reporting his hitting stats were not strong, though the tools were all still present.

The Twins took him first overall and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a top tier of talent without a clear top prospect. Things have gone even better than expected for Lewis in pro ball, and he’s hit above league average at every stop and reached High-A at age 19 while improving defensively at shortstop. Most scouts think he can stick there, which was not the case even a year ago, and one long-time scout even said Lewis is ahead of where Jeter was defensively at the same stage. We’ll call it a 60 bat with 50 game power and 50 defense, but there’s ceiling for more in here.

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from Plum HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/60 55/60 35/55 50/45 45/50 60/60

Kirilloff comes from the Pittsburgh area, hardly a hotbed for talent, but he distinguished himself in the summer before his draft year despite a slightly quirky uppercut swing. By the end of the summer, scouts had seen enough from Kiriloff and Bo Bichette to convince them that these swings could work, and that Kirilloff and Bichette belonged in the top few rounds, with both continuing to exceedexpectations. Kirilloff went in the middle of the first round in 2016, and missed time immediately after playing his first 55 pro games with Tommy John surgery.

He came back for his first full season in 2018 and dominated both Low-A and High-A, hitting over .330 at both stops with 20 homers on the season and strikeout rates below league average. There’s some chance he is even more than just a 60 hitter with 55 or 60 power, which is what most scouts are projecting right now, with something like a 15-20% chance that Kirilloff turns into the next Joey Votto. There’s some disagreement about whether his 2018 season was him dominating pitching that didn’t challenge him, or if he has an approach that’s a little too aggressive and he just got away with it in 2018. Kirilloff is a fringy runner who’s an average defender in right field and has a plus arm, but he may bulk up and move to first base down the line, which would likely come with more power as well.

50 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/65 50/60 45/55 40/50 96-99 / 100

Graterol signed for $150,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela, got Tommy John surgery within a year, then got on the scouting radar a couple years later, when he was hitting the high-90s on the backfields in Ft. Myers, eventually hitting 100 mph. Before 2018, he had only made a handful of appearances outside of the DSL and GCL. His 2018 included eight sterling starts in Low-A and 11 very solid starts in Hi-A, all as a teenager.

Graterol has the making of a frontline starter, sitting 96-99 and hitting 100 mph often, mixing in a plus-flashing slider and a changeup that’s above average at its best. He’s a short strider and a bit of a dart-thrower, which is unusual for a pitcher that hits 100, but it helps Graterol throw more strikes than you would assume from a teenager hitting this kind of heat with an arm surgery in his past. The poor extension makes his velocity play lower than the radar gun readings, but with some incremental improvements in pitch execution and command, Graterol could shoot up our overall list, as he does more things like Sixto Sanchez than anyone else in the minors.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Oregon State (MIN)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 65/65 35/60 45/45 40/45 55/55

Larnach hit several balls in excess of 110 mph during Oregon State’s opening weekend of his draft season, and he ended up slugging .652 that year. We were all-in despite scout concerns about his lack of range in the outfield and fear that he might just be a DH. The gap between where we had Larnach on our pre-draft board (12) and where he went (20) was large enough that we wondered if we were too high. Then Larnach hit .303/.390/.500 in pro ball during the rest of the summer, and we could sleep again. He has huge raw power and doesn’t swing with violence or effort to generate it; it’s just there. We’re very optimistic about him hitting enough to profile in an outfield corner.

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 20.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 45/55 20/45 55/50 45/55 60/60

Signed for an IFA franchise record $4 million, Javier was a “This is What They Look Like” amateur prospect, the skinny, athletically graceful, broad-shouldered teenager. Sometimes those players fill out too much to stay at shortstop, and end up as power-hitting third basemen; sometimes they don’t, and become starting shortstops with modest offensive ability. And sometimes, they develop in the Goldilocks Zone, stay at short, and make a big offensive impact. That last outcome’s existence, unlikely as it may be, puts prospects like Javier in a kind of rarified air, even when they haven’t yet done anything.

And Javier hasn’t. When should we start to worry about all the injuries? Since signing in 2015, Javier has played in just 50 games while dealing with various maladies. He was in street clothes during part of 2015 instructs for reasons unknown to us, he played in just nine games in 2016 due to a hamstring strain, was healthy in 2017, then missed all of 2018 with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder. This spring, he strained his quad and did not break camp with an affiliate. His frame has filled out and looked explosive, and during the spring, he was noticeably stronger and more powerful than he was when he signed. Javier’s body, bat speed, swing foundation, and defensive fit is the stuff of stardom, but we have little-to-no data on important things like plate discipline and feel for contact, and the injury history has been troubling.

45 FV Prospects

6. Jhoan Duran, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (ARI)
Age 21.3 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 230 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 50/60 40/50 93-96 / 98

Duran seemingly drew lots of trade interest while with Arizona. Loose, lean, and wielding premium stuff, his name was rumored to be on some PTBNL lists before he was ultimately traded to Minnesota as part of the Eduardo Escobar deal in 2018. During his first few pro seasons, Duran’s velocity yo-yo’d a bit; he was in the upper-90s at times, while more 91-95 at others. He was also demoted from the Northwest League back to the AZL in 2017 for reasons seemingly unrelated to performance. The following spring, not only was Duran’s velocity more stable — in the 93-96 range — but he was throwing strikes and had more consistent secondary stuff.

While he can spin a good breaking ball, Duran’s best secondary pitch is his changeup, which he sells with electric arm speed. He worked with better angle after the Twins acquired him last summer, a change that improved the playability of his breaking ball without taking away from his changeup’s movement. Now a physically mature, 230-pound 21-year-old, Duran seems poised to take a bit of a leap and perhaps reach the Florida State League later in the year. He may end up with three impact pitches if his secondaries have yet another gear of quality left to claim, which makes him a threat for the top 100 list either later this year or next.

7. Jose Miranda, 2B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (MIN)
Age 20.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 45/50 35/50 50/45 45/50 55/55

Miranda is a strong-bodied, multi-positional infielder with advanced feel for contact. He’ll be 20 for the first half of the season and has already reached Hi-A, leaving comically low strikeout rates in his wake as he has climbed the minor league ladder. His strikeout rate has hovered around 10% throughout his career despite Miranda having been about a year and a half younger than the average player at each minor league stop.

He may start trading some contact for power (his early-season strikeout and fly ball rates would seem to indicate this might be happening) but that may require more selectivity to work. Miranda’s swing is currently bottom-hand heavy and he doesn’t rip the bat through contact the way most power hitters do. He’s been fine putting quality, low-lying contact into play to his pull side so far, but may be best served to hit for more power, especially if he eventually moves off short. He’s a version of the bat control/up the middle types we so love here at FanGraphs, if a slightly lesser version right now due to his quieter results to date and his mature physicality.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr S / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 55/60 30/50 50/50 40/50 50/50

A thoroughly modern hitter, Severino has above-average ball/strike recognition for his age, and everything about his swing is geared for power. While he takes the occasional, gorgeous uppercut rip, it’s clear his feel for contact is undercooked from both sides of the plate, something that won’t be helped by a recent thumb fracture and ligament tear that may cost him most of this season. He’s increasingly likely to max out as a 40 hitter, or thereabouts, which makes it imperative that Severino learn to attack pitches he can drive and take his share of walks.

An amateur shortstop — he signed for $1.9 million with the Braves in their deep 2016 July 2nd class but was declared a free agent due to the Braves’ violations in the international realm, then signed for an additional $2.5 million bonus with Minnesota — Severino made all of seven 2019 starts at second base before hurting his thumb, and should settle in there. He could be a three true outcomes middle infielder à la Rickie Weeks, or peak Mark Bellhorn and Dan Uggla.

40+ FV Prospects

9. Brent Rooker, 1B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Mississippi State (MIN)
Age 24.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 65/65 45/60 40/40 40/45 40/40

As a draft-eligible redshirt sophomore, Rooker hit .324/.376/.528 with 11 homers at Mississippi State. The Twins drafted him in the 38th round. He didn’t sign, returned to school, hit .287/.496/.810 with 23 homers, stole 18 bases, and was drafted 35th overall. Nobody was totally sure what to make of such remarkable improvement, and Rooker lives in the dreaded right/right 1B/DH bucket for most evaluators, but he had among the best raw power in his draft class and emphatically torched the best conference in college baseball.

Since entering pro ball, Rooker has performed and moved quickly, slugging 22 homers at Double-A in his first full pro season. His breaking ball recognition is questionable, and may be exposed more this year at Triple-A Rochester. The swing and miss issues combined with the defensive limitations are a bit of a problem, but Rooker has more power and is more athletic than most other hitters of this statistical ilk (like the Trey Mancinis and C.J. Crons of the world), so we like his chances of being a major league contributor fairly soon. We just doubt that he’s an average or better everyday first baseman, and instead think he’s a corner platoon bat.

10. Ryan Jeffers, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from UNC Wilmington (MIN)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/55 35/50 40/40 40/50 55/55

Jeffers emerged from relative obscurity in 2018 at UNC Wilmington to climb into the first day of the draft with a strong spring. He has 55 raw power and arm strength, carrying tools that allow him to punish mistakes at the plate and throw out runners from behind it. His receiving skills will be a 45 or 50, so he likely can stick at catcher, while his contact skills are a notch below that. Jeffers has a strength-based, power-focused swing, and catchers will often lose some of their athleticism more quickly than guys at other positions, so we don’t see him contributing a big batting average or on-base percentage, but there is low-end regular upside.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2008 from Venezuela (PHI)
Age 27.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
80/80 40/40 45/45 20/20 40/40 50/50

Yes, Astudillo is still rookie-eligible even though he’s been part of the internet baseball zeitgeist for so long, the face of a movement that enjoys a certain of baseball’s many aesthetics. For our purposes, Astudillo forces us to consider how we define the hit tool without letting other skills bleed in, which leads us to all kinds of existential questions about traditional tool classifications. Eventually, your tools just are what your performance is, and Astudillo has accumulated about a month’s worth of freakish data that’s impossible to ignore. He has been, and this has been true his entire pro career, an elite K% (3%) and in-zone contact rate (96%) hitter, and were we to make a hierarchy of individual stats that indicate ability to hit, those would be at the top.

This thinking could be considered flawed. Jose Iglesias has had plus-plus contact rates throughout his career, but hits just .265 because he lacks strength. That’s a lack of power bleeding in to how the hit tool plays, but in his case we’d say the hit tool is still good. You could argue that, similar to power, we should have Raw Hit and Game Hit split into two tools. In that vein, Astudillo is again exemplary in the way his tools/skills interact, as his game power plays beneath his raw, because he can’t help himself but swing so damn much, and often the contact is sub-optimal. The Fat Ichiro moniker was bestowed upon Brett Wallace too soon; this is the genuine article.

Correctly dubbed “positionless” as a young prospect, Astudillo has ended up a passable glove at several of the places minor league managers tried to hide him in his early 20s. Minnesota has played him all over the field — catcher, first base, second base, third base, left field — and he’s okay everywhere. He had average catcher pop times in the big leagues last year. The “role” to expect here is that of a versatile corner bench bat. It’s just the strangest version of that, a husky super utility man, with maybe the best hand-eye coordination on the planet.

12. Luis Arraez, 2B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 22.0 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/60 45/45 20/30 50/50 45/50 40/40

Back from a 2017 ACL tear, Arraez hit for characteristically high rates of contact in 2018. He’s a career .328 hitter in the minors and has carried high averages to the upper levels, as he now has about half a season of Double-A at-bats under his belt. The type of contact Arraez makes is unique. He employs a punchy, minimalist swing, and just kind of throws the bat head at the baseball, leading to lots of opposite field contact. It’s worked so far, and Arraez has hit for enough contact to outweigh the total lack of game power that results from this kind of approach. It’s unlikely that this is an Altuveian situation where all of a sudden there’s power, because Altuve was pulling the ball in the minors.

Mostly because his actions are quite good, Arraez fits fine at second base. He’s a thicker guy and has begun to see more time at other positions (mostly other infield spots), and versatility will enable a team to roster him even if the lack of power turns out to be a problem. He likely projects as a bat-first utility guy, but there’s a chance he makes sufficient contact to be a regular at second.

40 FV Prospects

13. Lewis Thorpe, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Australia (MIN)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 50/50 60/60 45/50 45/50 90-94 / 95

Two consecutive seasons lost to a combination of Tommy John rehab and mononucleosis highlight a robust, early-career injury history for Thorpe, who has been encouragingly healthy for the last two years. He works at the top of the zone with a low-90s fastball, and beneath it with a big, breaking 12-to-6 curveball used against left and right-handed hitters, and he bisects the plate horizontally with a cutter/slider and changeup. A 6% walk rate in 2018 was comfortably Thorpe’s career best, which may be real development or just something that will regress to Thorpe’s career mean. It’s No. 4 or 5 starter stuff from an arm whose injury history, which one could argue should soon be expunged, moves him toward the back of that FV group. He’s at Triple-A and may see the big leagues this year.

14. Misael Urbina, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.0 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 25/50 55/50 40/50 40/45

Urbina was one of the more advanced bats in his July 2 signing class from both a bat control and physical development perspective. He was also one of the youngest. Currently an above-average runner, there’s a fair chance he ends up in left field due to a lack of top-end speed, though it might depend on how his body develops. Urbina’s power projection is somewhat limited by his size, which may be an issue if he does eventually move to a corner. It would mean he would have to be a high-end contact hitter to profile as an impact big leaguer, but that seems like it’s in play because Urbina has so many promising bat-to-ball traits — timing, hand-eye coordination, all-fields feel — at such a young age.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from St. Martin HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/50 40/50 91-94 / 96

After two years in the GCL (another Canadian high schooler further down this list was developed the same way), Balazovic spent the spring of 2018 in Extended and then skipped the Appy League and went right to Low-A. He dominated there, striking out 78 in 61.2 innings while walking just 18. He throws an unusually high number of strikes for such a lanky, young, cold-weather arm with a somewhat violent delivery, and he gets nasty vertical action on his breaking ball despite a mediocre spin rate.

There’s still some visual discomfort with Balazovic’s mechanics, but he’s throwing strikes early in his career and hasn’t been injured. He’ll move up this list with a full year of innings at his 2018 level of performance. For now he at least projects as a reliever, but has a puncher’s chance to be a No. 4 starter.

Drafted: 9th Round, 2015 from Maryland (MIN)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/45 45/45 30/35 50/50 55/55 40/40

Wade intrigues as the larger half of a corner outfield platoon. He’s not exactly tooled up, but he walks a lot — more than he strikes out against right-handed pitchers, in fact — and he’ll make up for some of what he lacks in power with rangy, corner outfield defense. It’s not spectacular, but there’s a clear role here. And with Wade at Triple-A and on the 40-man, he may get his first big league opportunity this season.

17. Ben Rortvedt, C
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Verona HS (WI) (MIN)
Age 21.6 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/40 40/30 40/45 55/55

The beefcake Wisconsinite was sent back to the Midwest League to start 2018, thrived for six weeks there, then was promoted to Hi-A for the rest of the year. An improved receiver with a good arm, Rortvedt now projects as a passable catcher after looking kind of rough back there as an amateur and young pro. He has raw power befitting one of baseball’s more impressive physiques (Yandy Diaz is a good body comp) but hasn’t been able to get to it in games. A more pull-happy approach may unlock dormant game power, and the start of Rortvedt’s 2019 indicates it might be coming. He projects as a backup for now, with a chance the batted ball profile changes in a relevant way.

18. Luis Rijo, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (NYY)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 55/60 45/50 45/60 90-94 / 95

Part of Minnesota’s return from New York for Lance Lynn, Rijo is a hyper-efficient strike thrower whose curveball moves like a Wiffle ball, seemingly floating as it approaches the plate before it begins to bend and dive away from right-handed hitters. Because it’s a slower, loopy pitch, it may not miss bats against upper-level hitters, but it’s hard to square up because of how much depth it has, and Rijo locates it where he wants. So, too, can he spot his low-90s fastball where his catcher asks for it, working up at the letters and to both corners of the plate at will. His ceiling will likely be limited by stuff quality — though only 20, Rijo is physically mature and unlikely to grow into much more velocity — but the command makes him a high-probability starter and one who could move quickly.

19. Nick Gordon, 2B
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from Olympia HS (FL) (MIN)
Age 23.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/45 50/50 30/45 55/55 45/50 55/55

Seen as a lock to stick at shortstop while he was an amateur, Gordon has been error-prone there for several years and saw more time at second in 2018. He projects there for most scouts. The movement in his batted ball profile has plateaued (Gordon began his career as an all-fields, groundball hitter but began pulling and lifting the ball more starting in 2016), but might still produce more power than is usual at second base right now, even if it’s generally middling. (Gordon raps on the side under the alter ego “G Cinco,” which is also the name of an ASU-educated “Artist Entrepreneur,” so one of the two of them may have a copyright issue on their hands.) Gordon’s star seems to have fallen quite a bit, and instead of projecting as a shortstop with some pop, he’ll now need to hit enough to play second everyday or risk being squeezed out of a roster spot. He began 2019 on the IL with a digestive issue.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 35/40 20/30 60/60 45/60 60/60

International scouts billed Celestino’s defense and contact skills as advanced, and Houston handled promoting him as if that were true before trading him to Minnesota as part of the Ryan Pressly deal. He spent the last few weeks of his first pro season up from the DSL, but was liberated from the complex the following summer and sent right to the Appy League at 18, then the Penn League the following year, before the trade. And Celestino has hit during that time, just not usually for power, as he didn’t add much raw strength during his late teens. He’s only 20 but has a modest, tweener frame and probably needs to develop into a special defender, a special hitter, or both, in order to profile everyday.

21. Jovani Moran, LHP
Drafted: 7th Round, 2015 from Carlos Beltran Academy (PR) (MIN)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 45/50 55/60 40/45 90-93 / 94

Drafted as an arm action/athleticism project out of Puerto Rico, Moran’s velocity has grown significantly since his high school days; he’s developed a plus, maybe plus-plus changeup that has about 15 mph of velocity difference off his fastball. He’s amassed 174 strikeouts in 123 pro innings, mostly via multi-inning relief outings. Lefties with changeups are well-positioned for when three-batter minimums are put in place for relievers. Now at Double-A, Moran might factor into the Twins’ bullpen picture this year. He projects as a middle reliever.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from San Jacinto JC (TX) (LAD)
Age 23.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 45/50 55/60 55/60 50/55 87-91 / 92

Most pitchers tuck their gloves in by their ribs when they disconnect and begin to clear their front sides; Smeltzer’s glove extends way out away from his body, the start of one of baseball’s funkiest deliveries. Repertoire depth, plus fastball and breaking ball spin, and efficient strike-throwing all mix with the mechanical deception to enable Smeltzer’s success despite a lack of velocity. He’s long been projected as a reliever but continues to start in the minors, and he’s had some dominant outings in addition to the low walk rates, and his spin rate has ticked up pretty significantly each of the last two seasons, which is rare. He may end up in a multi-inning role of some kind, as his strange mechanics would certainly give hitters a weird look one time through the lineup.

Smeltzer was struck in the head by a comeback in mid-April. He walked off the field under his own power but it’s unclear what his timetable for return is at list publication.

23. Blayne Enlow, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from St. Amat HS (LA) (MIN)
Age 20.1 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/60 40/50 40/50 90-94 / 96

Your standard high school projection arm with a breaking ball, Enlow is back at Low-A to start 2019. Like most pitchers of this ilk, fastball command and the development of a third pitch stand between Enlow and industry confidence that he’s a starter. That stuff hasn’t developed just yet, but Enlow is still just 20. If that doesn’t happen, he’s likely to be a fine reliever.

24. Akil Baddoo, CF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Salem HS (GA) (MIN)
Age 20.7 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 50/50 30/45 60/60 40/50 40/40

Baddoo has some promising physical ingredients — speed, raw power — and three consecutive seasons of plus walk rates. For a player who was considered raw coming out of high school, his numbers at his age and level combination are compelling, and he’ll be a 20 year old at Hi-A all year. Visual evaluations of his feel to hit temper enthusiasm for his overall profile, as the game power manifests itself in a niche, dead-pull manner that upper-level pitching should be able to avoid. Scouts think he’s more of a platoon or fourth outfielder, while we think it’s likely that teams using a pro model will like him more than that because of his age and peripherals.

25. Luke Raley, 1B
Drafted: 7th Round, 2016 from Lake Erie College (OH) (LAD)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/40 60/60 40/45 55/50 45/50 60/60

Raley is plus runner underway despite his size, and has big raw power that the Dodgers did well to tease out of him in games before trading him to Minnesota as part of the Brian Dozier deal last year. The small-school pedigree helps balance skepticism surrounding Raley’s performance (20 Double-A homers at age 23 last year) due to his age, and he projects to be a player quite similar to Daniel Palka or Scott Schebler.

26. Jorge Alcala, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (HOU)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
70/70 50/55 40/45 40/40 93-96 / 98

Acquired from Houston as part of the Ryan Pressly trade, Alcala has reached Double-A as a starter despite having been projected as a reliever for almost his entire pro career. Fastball control and a viable changeup have both been elusive, and you could argue Alcala’s issues repeating/locating also impact the way his slider plays, though it does have nasty late bite. He throws really hard — typically in the mid-90s, peaking above that — and has a great build. It makes sense to give him starter reps until he’s needed in the majors, since it means more chances for him to refine his secondary stuff and control. He’s a high-probability middle reliever, but he has a set-up man’s arm strength.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Brazil (ARI)
Age 20.3 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr S / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/55 30/30 20/20 70/70 45/55 50/50

A tiny speedster, Maciel’s build is relatively unprojectable, but one can still project on most of his skills because he was only taught baseball’s basics while growing up in Brazil, and hasn’t been switch-hitting for very long. His game has some coherent small-ball elements already, as he took quickly to bunting and putting awkward contact into play, which, because of his speed, enables him to reach against bad, low-level defenses.

There’s so little power here that Maciel likely projects as a fourth outfielder, but his feel for contact is impressive for someone of his background and seemingly insufficient physicality, and if he ends up with a 6 or 7 bat, we might be talking about a regular.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.0 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 45/55 35/45 92-94 / 96

Tilt Berroa’s cap another 15 degrees and he’s a dead on-mound ringer for Fernando Rodney. Right now, he just throws tailing heat past hitters, but he has some nascent changeup feel and his arm speed and loose, rhythmic delivery makes one comfortable projecting on the changeup. His breaking ball is good enough to miss bats when it’s located. Berroa hasn’t harnessed his limbs or his release point yet, so you have to project pretty heavily on his command to buy that the slider will play one day, and that he’ll throw enough strikes to start. If that happens, he could be a No. 4 starter. If it doesn’t, a bullpen role will be determined by his changeup quality.

29. Cole Sands, RHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Florida State (MIN)
Age 21.8 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 35/45 91-93 / 95

Sands’ older brother Carson was a high pick by the Cubs, and prep teammate Cole Ragans was a high pick by Texas from a historically-strong prep pitching staff. The younger Sands had a similar profile as a prep prospect as he did coming out of Florida State: above average stuff and average command that varied by the day more than scouts wanted, with no true plus pitch. Sands had biceps tendonitis just before the draft, which created some uncertainty and ultimately appears to have pushed him down a bit on draft day; he signed for third round money in the fifth round. He projects as a fourth starter type.

Drafted: 3rd Round, 2015 from Pottsville HS (PA) (MIN)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/55 30/45 40/40 40/40 50/50

Though he’s gotten thick and stiff as his body has matured, the Twins continue to run Blankenhorn out at second and third base in addition to left field. He’s a 40 infield defender but as the club has shown with Astudillo, there are ways of hiding players like this in order to shoehorn their bat into the lineup. His swing is a bit grooved but Blankenhorn’s hands work well, and he has strength-driven doubles power. It’s not enough to profile everyday at one of the positions Blankenhorn is capable of playing regularly, but he should turn into a role-playing lefty bench bat.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) (MIN)
Age 24.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 213 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 45/45 55/55 45/45 87-90 / 92

Gonsalves cruised through the lower levels of the minors with three quality secondary offerings and a fastball that played above its velocity due to deception and a helpful spin axis. As he reached the upper levels, his ability to locate plateaued, and some would say it’s just gone backwards. His upper-80s fastball is vulnerable when it’s not in the right places, so Gonsalves has become a little walk-prone and gives up loud contact when he makes mistakes in the zone. Unless he can reclaim an ability to locate his fastball where it plays best (up near the letters), he’ll need to work heavily off his bevy of quality secondary offerings to get through a lineup multiple times. He’s on the IL to start the year (forearm) and looks like a No. 5 starter or low-leverage long reliever.

32. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Taiwan (MIN)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/55 45/55 35/45 90-93 / 95

Of the $3 million in bonus pool money the Twins suddenly had lying around after they voided Jelfy Marte’s deal due to vision issues, they spent $2.5 million on Yunior Severino and $500,000 on Teng, who pitched at an athletics high school in Taiwan. His arm action is a little rough, and Teng’s lower slot makes it hard for him to get on top of his curveball consistently, but he’s very well balanced over his blocking leg and otherwise has a smooth delivery. At this age and size, it’s possible no more than the low-90s velo will come, but that might be enough if that curveball matures, because Teng’s changeup is also very good. His timeline to the bigs has more to do with Minnesota’s need to add him to the 40-man, which means we probably won’t see him in the big leagues until Teng is comfortably in his mid-20s, even if he makes progress. But he might be a No. 4 or 5 starter one day.

33. Ryan Costello, 1B
Drafted: 31th Round, 2017 from Central Connecticut State (SEA)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 30/50 50/50 40/40 50/55 50/50

A great small-school find by Seattle, Costello had a strong junior year after doing nothing as an underclassman, in part due to injury. Three strong months into his first full pro season, Costello had more than 40 extra-base hits and a 12% walk rate and had become of interest to eyeball scouts. A year after he was a 31st round pick, Seattle traded him in the Zach Duke deal. The Twins pushed him to a more age-apprpriate level immediately. He’s now an interesting sleeper 1B/3B bat, one who could at least play a corner utility/pinch hitting role.

34. Landon Leach, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Pickering HS (CAN) (MIN)
Age 19.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/60 40/50 40/50 40/50 91-93 / 94

The assumption that Leach, a giant Canadian kid who was still just 17 on draft day, would take a while to develop was correct. He repeated the GCL last year, missed some time with injury, and is back in Fort Myers for Extended again this spring. He’s a low-90s sinker baller with middling secondary stuff, but he repeats his delivery and remains a teenage developmental project from a cold climate. He has depth starter stuff right now and you have to project heavily on the change and command to see more than a backend starter, but it’s possible.

35. Griffin Jax, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Air Force (MIN)
Age 24.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 50/50 50/55 40/50 90-93 / 95

It seemed like the runway was clear for Jax to begin a pro career after graduating from Air Force. But about a month before he walked, the Department of Defense began once again requiring at least two years of active duty before graduates could apply to serve out their time in reserve status for the purpose of playing pro sports. Then baseball was reinstated as an Olympic sport, and Jax found an avenue to pro ball through the World Class Athlete Program, a military unit focused on training for the Games in the two years leading up to competition. So Jax, having sorted out some arcane rules about Air Force personnel being unable to have second streams of income, is technically an Air Force lieutenant training for the 2020 Olympics, while the Twins pay for his development, but don’t pay him.

Jax was 89-94 throughout the 2018 Fall League, with his secondary stuff about average, flashing above (especially the change). He could be a fifth starter, but if his fastball ticks up in short relief, he’ll fit in a mid-inning bullpen role. It’s unclear what happens to Jax and his military commitment after the 2020 games conclude.

35+ FV Prospects

36. Carlos Aguiar, OF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIN)
Age 17.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

A body-beautiful outfielder with as good-looking a swing, Aguiar played all last year as a 16-year-old in the DSL. The best of his sweet, uppercut swings have flourishes of Ken Griffey, Jr.’s beautiful finish. The cement is drier on Aguiar’s body than is typical for a prospect this age, but he has some pop, feel for lifting the ball, and he held his head above water despite being one of the younger guys in the DSL last year. He’s an interesting, long-term corner outfield project.

37. Johan Quezada, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 24.7 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 40/45 94 / 0

After parts of five seasons in rookie or short-season ball, and one on the shelf for a shoulder surgery, Quezada finally made his full-season debut in 2018, just a few days shy of his 24th birthday. He came back throwing fire, sitting comfortably in the 94-98 range. An imposing mound presence at a towering 6-foot-6, Quezada creates extreme downhill plane on his fastball and vertical action on his slider, which aids its vertical depth in spite of a paltry spin rate. He’s understandably behind due to his limited pro workload, but he’s a candidate for quick promotion before he breaks again, and seems like a potential set-up type if the slider improves now that Quezada is finally pitching and developing again.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Utah (MIN)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 30/45 55/55 60/60 45/50 45/45

Toward the end of the 2017 college season, Keirsey chased a Hunter Bishop flyball to the warning track and collided at high speed with the center field wall, fracturing and dislocating his hip. He couldn’t run for four months. It meant no Cape Cod League the summer before his draft year, and uncertainty that his best physical attribute — his speed — was gone. Though he didn’t look quite as explosive early the following year, Keirsey played his entire junior season and led the Pac-12 in doubles before signing as a slightly over slot fourth rounder. He currently projects as a bench outfielder whose medical might be grisly, but if more of his explosiveness returns, he could climb this list.

39. Charles Mack, 2B
Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Williamsville East HS (NY) (MIN)
Age 19.4 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 20/45 45/50 50/50 40/50 40/40

After the Twins got slightly under slot deals done with a two early college draftees, they were free to spread over slot money throughout the rest of their draft, which included a $500,000 bonus for Mack in the sixth round. A Northeast prep bat with a stiff, but well-timed uppercut swing, Mack has a good chance to hit for gap power and stay on the infield somewhere. He’s relatively mature physically, but already has good power for his age. He didn’t hit well after signing, but the leap from New York high school to pro ball is a doozy.

Drafted: 11th Round, 2018 from Texas A&M (MIN)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Helman’s cacophonous post-draft summer — .361/.409/.510 — caused some re-evaluation after he had just gotten about $200,000 as an 11th rounder a few months earlier. We’re still not all-in. His 2018 line included a .386 BABIP against competition beneath what he faced in college, he didn’t walk much, and visual evaluations yielded mixed feelings about his ability to sustain anything approaching that kind of game power. Helman is remarkably short to the baseball and tough to beat with velocity because his hands work in such a tight little circle. A more athletic, full-bodied swing may yield more pop, which, if it doesn’t take too much from his ability to make contact, would be a meaningful improvement. Realistically, he might be a utility infielder with bat and speed. He’s at Hi-A and soon turns 23.

41. Lewin Diaz, 1B
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/55 30/50 60/60 45/40 45/50 50/50

Diaz didn’t perform in his first try at the Florida State League, reaching base at just a .255 clip before his season ended with a thumb fracture, which required surgery. Don’t be fooled by his unconventional swing; he has feel to hit and feel for lifting the ball in the air regularly. But too often, Diaz swings at whatever he’s offered, limiting the quality of his contact and his ability to reach base. At first base, that might be a problem. Scouts have mixed opinions about his body and how it projects into his mid-to-late-20s, which is when Diaz will likely be on the 40-man fringe, perhaps a fit for some clubs in need of, or with room for, a big-bodied masher on their 40-man. The raw power and feel for lift/contact are enticing, but a more sentient approach would be nice.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Upper-level Depth
Zack Littell, RHP
Jake Reed, RHP
Alex Robinson, LHP
Kohl Stewart, RHP
Andrew Vasquez, LHP
Tyler Jay, LHP

Several members of this group will likely help Minnesota this year, as most teams need about 20 pitchers to get through a season. Littell saw some big league time last year. He’s 23, has a low-90s fastball, and an average cutter, curveball, and change. He projects as a No. 5/6 starter. Reed is a three-pitch reliever with a funky delivery who has calmed down significantly since college. Robinson throws in the upper-90s when healthy. He and Reed are middle relief types. Stewart throws in the mid-90s but has below-average command and fringe secondary stuff, except for his breaking ball, which is average. Vasquez throws a ton of curveballs and is a fringe 40-man lefty. Jay’s stuff hasn’t quite returned since his many injuries, but he’s still a multi-pitch lefty with average stuff, and that seems rosterable.

Sleeper Arms
Edwar Colina, RHP
Dakota Chalmers, RHP
Ryley Widell, LHP
Regi Grace, RHP
Josh Winder, RHP

Colina is a thick 21-year-old with below-average command. He’ll touch 96 and has an average four-pitch mix. After a strong second half of 2018, he’s hurt to start this year. Chalmers has been 93-96 with a plus change and curveball in the past, but he’s had severe strike-throwing issues and isn’t on an affiliate roster right now. Widell is a lefty with three average pitches. Grace was one of two Mississippi high school kids signed to overslot deals in the top 10 rounds. His delivery is kind of rough, but he’ll show you 90-93 with feel for spin. Winder is a spin efficient righty with average stuff that plays up.

Sleeper Bats
Jeferson Morales, C
Willie Joe Garry, Jr., OF

Morales is currently dealing with a left knee injury of unknown severity, but he’s an athletic catcher with plate discipline and speed. Garry was the second of the two overslot high schoolers taken late on Day 2 last year. He’s a lefty outfield bat with some power and a good frame.

System Overview

This is clearly one of the deeper systems in baseball, and has a few potential stars at the very top including a recent No. 1 overall pick, and yet it’s not discussed as often as the other great systems in the game. Perhaps this is because the big league team has a chance to compete, which makes us collectively fixate on the Twins’ October chances, compared to other clubs with good systems that have either pointed toward their coherent rebuild rather than dwell on a bad big league roster (San Diego), or “need” the farm to constantly feed cost-controlled players up the ladder (Tampa Bay). It might also just be media neglect.

It’s incredible the system is as good as it is considering how little the Twins have done in the Dominican Republic over the last several years. Only two of the 40 FV or better players on here are original Twins signees from the DR. Indeed, they’ve done much better in odd places like Australia or Eastern Asia than in the Dominican. That may change now that they’ve made some personnel changes in International Scouting. They’ve also done very well in Venezuela despite abandoning their complex in 2016 due to the country’s ongoing turmoil.

Let’s watch the next Twins draft to see if their 2018 strategy (two underslot college mashers early, then a bunch of overslot picks throughout the rest of the draft’s first two days) becomes a multi-year ideology.


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/18/2019

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Minnesota Twins
Level: Triple-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 12   FV: 40
Line: 5.2 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 12 K

Notes
After two middling starts to kick off his season, Thorpe was dominant yesterday and K’d 12 of the 22 hitters he faced, all on either a fastball at the letters or with a curveball beneath the strike zone. He has quite the injury history (including a two-year stretch where he didn’t pitch at all) and it has impact on how the industry perceives him, which is why he’ll be ranked a bit beneath where he would otherwise be based on his stuff and proximity to the majors. But Thorpe has been consistently healthy since May of 2017, which may begin to allay concerns.

Cody Thomas, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Level: Double-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: tbd   FV: 40
Line: 4-for-4, 3 HR

Notes
The Dodgers have done well drafting and developing college power/speed hitters who are athletically stiff, have some swing and miss issues, or both. Thomas, who will be an interesting Rule 5 case this offseason, is one of these. He’s striking out a lot as a 24-year-old at Double-A, but some teams may view the context of his performance differently because Thomas was a two-sport college athlete who hasn’t focused on baseball for as long as other prospects his age. The Dodgers will need to add several other players from Thomas’ draft class to the 40-man (Will Smith, Mitch White, Jordan Sheffield, Tony Gonsolin), so Thomas would seem to be a candidate for trade if a team loves the tools, ability to lift the baseball, and has some 40-man space/time to spare to let him develop further.

Oscar Mercado, CF, Cleveland Indians
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 12   FV: 45
Line: 3-for-4, 2B, BB, 4 SB

Notes
Cleveland outfielders, aside from Leonys Martin, are struggling right now. Mercado has begun to heat up at Triple-A with hits in five consecutive games. If he starts seeing more time in a corner, it may be an indication a call-up is imminent, because he’s not supplanting Martin in Cleveland’s center field. He’s only started 23 games in either left or right field during his career, and it might behoove Cleveland to get him more acclimated.

Ty France, 1B/3B, San Diego Padres
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: tbd   FV: 40
Line: 2-for-5, 2 HR

Notes
The Hosmer and Machado deals almost certainly make France a burgeoning trade chip. He’s exactly the kind of hitter to whom the PCL is extra nice, but he’s hit at every level since college and, save for one season, has also hit for power, and his current SLG% is more caricature than mirage. France also had a great spring with the big league club and is on the 40-man, so he’s likely to debut this year if one of the big league corner bats gets hurt, though San Diego might view that as a way to clear their outfield logjam by playing Wil Myers in the infield again.

Tyler Ivey, RHP, Houston Astros
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 14   FV: 40+
Line: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
A quintessential Houston four-seam/curveball pitching prospect, Ivey at least projects as a good multi-inning reliever and his four-pitch mix gives him a great chance to start. He was ejected two innings into his last start for having a foreign substance on his glove. He’s a sleeper 2020 Top 100 candidate.

More on Keoni Cavaco
There’s background on Cavaco in yesterday’s Notes. I saw him again yesterday against Torrey Pines High School and he had a tough day at the plate, swinging over multiple changeups from TPH’s funky lefty starter. There are going to be questions about his hit tool because of both the swing (inconsistent, arguably ineffectual stride length, odd hand path) and his lack of track record against elite high school pitching, and maybe about what his ultimate defensive position will be, but he’ll be somebody’s toolsy sandwich round pick.

Also of note from the game was Torrey Pines CF Mac Bingham, a 2019 committed to USC. He’s a strong, compact 5-foot-10, 185, and was the football team’s running back in the fall. He made strong contact with two hittable pitches, and ran a 55 time from home to first while legging out a double. The frame makes the power projection less exciting and one area scout told me the general consensus is that Bingham will go to school, but he’s at least an interesting, tools-based follow for 2022 if he does.


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/17/19

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Nicky Lopez, SS, Kansas City Royals
Level: Triple-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 7   FV: 45
Line: 3-for-5, 2 HR, 2B, BB

Notes
In our recently-published Royals list, we openly wondered if we should be heavier on Lopez largely because A) he plays shortstop and B) his peripherals are excellent. Shortly after publication, an executive reached out to us and they agreed we should be more enthused about Lopez, who we currently have evaluated as a second-division regular. He’s struck out just once so far this year. We don’t expect Lopez to hit for much power (he’s little and hits the ball on the ground a lot), but he may do enough to be part of Kansas City’s rebuilding efforts.

Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Minnesota Twins
Level: Double-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 3   FV: 50
Line: 7 IP, 1 H, 1 BB, 0 R, 8 K

Notes
After two semi-wild starts during which his stuff was still too good for opposing hitters to do anything with, Graterol was slightly more efficient and utterly dominant last night. He’s holding upper-90s heat late into games, and while his slider is more horizontally oriented than is ideal (vertical breaking balls are typically better at missing bats), Graterol’s has enough length to be a real problem for hitters anyway. He’s only 20 and carving up Double-A. If there’s a scenario in which Graterol sees the big leagues this year, it almost certainly involves a tight AL Central race and a start like the one he’s off to.

Jarred Kelenic, CF, Seattle Mariners
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 3   FV: 50
Line: 4-for-4, 2 2B, SB, BB

Notes
After a rough first week, Kelenic has heated up and is hitting like one would hope the most advanced high school bat would hit during their first full pro season. Both he and Nolan Gorman are performing and seem on the fast track. Kelenic has also looked comfortable in center field. Big and muscular aleady at 19, there’s some thought Kelenic may eventually move to a corner, but if he races through the minors, he’ll get to the bigs before he slows down.

Oscar Gonzalez, OF, Cleveland Indians
Level: Hi-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: HM   FV: 35
Line: 2-for-5, HR, 2B

Notes
Perhaps the epitome of the high-risk hitting prospect, Gonzalez continues to hit for power despite employing one of the most swing-happy approaches in pro ball. He still hasn’t walked this year and has just three free passes dating back to last June. The realistic ceiling for a player like this is a Hunter Renfroe-y sort of player.

Dispatch from Chula Vista

I’m in Southern California to see Eastlake High School infielder Keoni Cavaco, perhaps the most signifiant pop-up prospect in this year’s draft. Though his swing is a little unorthodox and handsy, Cavaco has big raw power and speed (he homered to dead center yesterday, turned what would typically be a gap single into a double, stole a base) and maybe the best body in the draft. He mishandled a ball at third base (where he moved, from second, late in the game) and saw little defensive action beside that.

We have Cavaco at the back of the 45-FV tier in this year’s class. There can only be so much confidence in his bat because he wasn’t part of last summer’s big showcases, where he would have faced better pitching than he’s seeing now. On tools, and based on what teams had extra heat in to see him (Seattle, Cleveland, Arizona), we’ll likely slide him up a few spots on The Board. I may head back to see more of him today.


Kiley McDaniel Chat – 4/17/19

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: Hello from ATL! Had a lunch date with friends of the chat Nick Piecoro and Keith Law (name drops) but I’m here to chat with you

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: Podcast went up today about my recent Florida trip, extension talk and GOT hot takes: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-kiley-mcdaniel-welcomes-th…

1:30

Jeff: Any new buzz inside the top 10 of the draft?

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: An unusual amount of KC fans were interested/outraged/surprised that I said last week most of the industry thinks KC will take Andrew Vaughn at 2. Still seems that way, but talked to some folks this week that think they’ll go with Bobby Witt, conceding that it’s probably one of the two. CHW would definitely not pass on Vaughn if KC did and rumors have MIA leaning college as well, but the top college guy at that point isn’t as clear. A recent shuffle at the top of our rankings has Nick Lodolo and JJ Bleday as their best options.

1:32

Shooter : Couple of draft questions…what are you hearing on Kody Hoese, and what the hell happened to Mitchell Senger?

1:33

Kiley McDaniel: Senger is a lefty from Stetson, a mid major school with a sneaky-good track record for pitching (Kluber, deGrom, Logan Gilbert, Mitchell Jordan, now Senger). He got the yips early and now is back on track, out of the pen. Could be a Nick Sprengel-type late flier based on a solid track record.

Read the rest of this entry »


Prospect Dispatch: Two New Jersey High School Prospects

Since the inception of the MLB Draft in 1965, there have never been two players drafted in the first round from the same high school in the Northeast in the same draft class. Jack Leiter and Anthony Volpe, both senior Vanderbilt commits at Delbarton School in Morristown, New Jersey, have the potential to change that this year. I watched Delbarton face off against Red Bank Catholic High School on Saturday afternoon along with several dozen scouts. What follows are my takeaways from their respective performances in the game.

Jack Leiter, RHP
Current 2019 Draft Ranking: 28

Leiter is, as you might have extrapolated from his last name, the son of the former major leaguer Al Leiter, who accumulated nearly 2,400 career innings pitched and a total of 36.5 WAR across 19 seasons. Al’s brother, Mark, also pitched in the big leagues for 11 years, and Mark’s son, Mark, Jr., debuted with the Phillies in 2017. Jack’s performance on Saturday showed a glimpse of the potential that suggests he could one day join his dad, uncle, and cousin in a big league uniform.

Leiter stands at 6-foot-1, 195 pounds, with a fairly slim frame and well-distributed strength. I wouldn’t describe him as slight, but he’s relatively average-sized and doesn’t have a build you’d typically expect out of a high school right-handed pitching prospect. Leiter’s arm action and delivery are amongst the best I’ve seen from a high school prospect. He has a simple, uptempo delivery, delivering the ball from a high three-quarter slot with above average arm speed, and he stays on line with the plate very well. He has a medium length arm swing with a loose, easy path and is on time throughout his delivery. There is some stiffness on his front leg during his follow-through, but this isn’t a concern for me, as it occurs after release. Everything works in-sync and fluidly together, and he repeats his delivery extremely well for any prospect, especially one in high school.

Throughout the outing, Leiter showed flashes of a legitimate three pitch mix. He came out of the gates hot, touching 96 early and sitting 92-95 for the first three innings. His higher slot generated more plane than angle and he’ll likely look to work with more four-seamers than two-seamers long term because of it. His calling card is his curveball, a big breaking 74-77 mph downer that flashes plus. He spins the ball well, generating good tilt and depth to the pitch and enabling himself to miss bats below the zone.

Also a part of his arsenal was a slider, which worked 84-85, that he broke out a bit more often as the game went on. The slider is fringy, working between a 40- and 45- grade, as it had true shape but sort of rolled out of the hand. I do think it’ll be a nice supplement to the arsenal long-term, but I don’t think it has a chance to be anything better than average at best and will likely stay a supplementary offering. Leiter didn’t throw any changeups in game but threw several in warmups and showed some feel to command the pitch, although he did slow his arm down to throw it. Given the ease with which he throws and his consistent delivery, I would have no issue projecting a changeup of similar quality to his slider in his pitch mix long-term, which would round out a solid four-pitch mix for a starting pitcher.

All of the above information would place Leiter firmly in the first round of the draft as a right-handed pitcher showing two plus pitches and with a chance to stay as a starter long-term. The main issues I have in projecting him highly are his build and his age, which are, in some ways, connected. Leiter’s velocity tapered in the fourth inning of his outing and while he finished with 11 strikeouts in five innings, the opposing Red Bank Catholic lineup strung together some decent contact in the latter two frames of his outing. His fastball velocity was 88-92 for those two innings and his curveball, while still showing quality depth, did not flash plus like it had in the early innings. Leiter’s fastball doesn’t play any higher than its true velocity and as it tapered, it became more difficult for him to miss bats.

A high school pitcher’s velocity falling off is not a concern in and of itself. In fact, it’s fairly common. Leiter’s average size, however, could lead to some concerns long term about his durability or his ability to maintain effectiveness without mid-90s velocity. That, combined with the fact that Leiter will be 19-years-old at the time of the draft and will ostensibly be a year ahead of his 18-year-old peers developmentally, could lead some teams to shy away from him. The demographic of high school right-handed pitchers has not been great historically, and when you combine that with the fact that this particular pitcher is of average size and is older than his peers, it will likely lead to reservations in draft rooms.

With that being said, Leiter’s delivery and his stuff speaks for itself. He’s clearly talented enough to be a first round selection as a potential No. 4 or No. 5 starter long-term – with a mid-90s fastball, a curveball that flashes plus, a usable slider, and a plus delivery – and I think a team will take a chance on him. Leiter’s talent puts him in the back end of the first round typically, and I could see a team selecting him there or at some point in rounds two through four for what is the equivalent of late first round money.

Anthony Volpe, SS
Current 2019 Draft Ranking: 33

Volpe has long been a mainstay at the highest profile amateur baseball venues, playing for Team USA in Taiwan at 12-years-old and participating in several dozen showcase and tournament events in high school, including last year’s Perfect Game and Under Armour All-American games at Petco Park and Wrigley Field, respectively. His experience is evident on the field – Volpe shows plus feel to play on both sides of the ball, which helps to elevate his game above his collection of relatively average tools.

A right-handed hitting shortstop, Volpe is short and muscular, with especially strong legs and a lively look to his frame. He’s a good athlete who moves around the dirt well, showing average range and an average arm with instincts that might enable him to play slightly above those. He has good hands and takes very good angles to balls, seemingly never fielding an in-between hop and doing a good job getting around and fielding the ball. I think he has a chance to be average at shortstop and could provide good utility value moving around the dirt to both second base and third base long-term.

Offensively, Volpe hits from a spread stance with high hands, even with the pitcher. He’s compact to the ball and is an aggressive hitter who showed a pretty good approach at the plate, looking to drive the ball to the gaps. He is a 55 runner who runs hard and takes good angles around the bases. His swing – compact and consistent — showcases both fringy quickness and bat speed. He really pinches his hands in and artificially gets his bat on plane (think J.D. Martinez from gather to contact, and not Alex Bregman). This isn’t necessarily an issue, but Volpe has 40-grade raw power and is already relatively mature physically.

This type of swing path – one that pulls the hands in and then drives the barrel downward into the hitting plane and pushes it through with the hands – typically leads to an opposite field-heavy approach. Someone like the aforementioned Martinez, who artificially gets on plane, overcomes suboptimal contact points because he’s so strong. In 2017 and 2018, Martinez’s average exit velocity and launch angle to right field were 92.6 mph and 25.3 degrees, respectively, and he hit 54.6% of batted balls to right field at above 95 mph. It’s extremely difficult to imagine Volpe impacting the ball that much and with that much regularity long term.

Volpe showed his feel to hit and his opposite field approach on Saturday by driving a line drive to right center field for a home run, although the right center field fence was just 330 feet away so this ball would have likely been a double or a triple on most fields. My concern is not with his ability to make contact or his ability to hit the ball to right field; it’s with his ability to drive the ball with power and pull the ball consistently. I can see an average hit tool long-term due to the feel to hit and pitch recognition skills, but the lack of power and the artificial nature with which his barrel gets to the zone concern me with respect to his ability to drive the ball consistently.

Of course, none of the above concerns mean that a swing like Volpe’s isn’t fixable. He’s been lauded in the industry for his baseball IQ and showed nothing on Saturday to make me reach a different conclusion, so there is the possibility that he can make adjustments to his swing and drive the ball more consistently. And regardless, this is a well-rounded high school infielder with a high baseball IQ, a chance to stay at shortstop, and average hit tool potential. That’s an intriguing profile, and one that doesn’t last beyond the first few rounds of the draft, as there is bat-to-ball and utility value in the profile. His lack of a plus tool and the uncertainty about his ability to hit for better than 40-grade power push him into more second or third round contention for me, but I could see a team who values versatility and strong contact skills taking him a little higher than that and letting their minor league hitting coaches get to work.


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/15/19

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 16   FV: 40
Line: 5 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 9 K

Notes
Acquired from Houston in exchange for Martin Maldonado last summer, Sandoval now has 45 strikeouts in 28.2 career innings at Double-A. He continues to work with middling fastball velocity but some mechanical elements help it to play better than 90-94. Houston got Sandoval to open his front side a little more, tilt his spine, and release the ball with a more vertical arm slot than he was using in high school. It’s a weirder look for hitters and creates more backspin and, therefore, more “rise” on his fastball. Sandoval also works heavily off his two secondary pitches, and his changeup may be better than we currently have it projected to be on The Board. The strike-throwing is still inconsistent start to start, but Sandoval is officially having upper-level success for a franchise that keeps having injury issues on the big league roster, so perhaps he should be included in the Canning/Suarez/Barria group of young hurlers who may help the Angels sooner than later.

Nate Pearson, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 4   FV: 50
Line: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 9 K

Notes
Pearson was removed from his previous start after just 27 pitches, so it was a relief to see him back and dominant five days later. Pearson’s future as a strike-thrower is hard to anticipate. He was wild last fall but he hadn’t pitched all year due to a fractured ulna, so that wildness could have just been due to rust. He threw 43 of 59 pitches for strikes yesterday, a sign he may actually be able to harness his alien stuff and find a way to start long-term. He may be on an innings limit this year, so unless the Jays expertly manicure his workload with a big league goal in mind (perhaps that two-inning outing last start is an indication of how they’ll handle Pearson throughout the year) it’s unlikely we see him in the big leagues until next year at least. It’s still too early to reposition Pearson in our rankings due to increased confidence that he’ll start, but yesterday’s outing, during which he sat 94-98 and touched 102, could soon be part of a body of evidence indicating we should.

Anderson Tejeda, SS, Texas Rangers
Level: Hi-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 4   FV: 45+
Line: 2-for-5, 2 HR

Notes
These were Tejeda’s first two homers of the year. He’s back at Hi-A despite having success there last year, presumably so the Rangers can let Michael De Leon (who peaked as a teenager) get regular at-bats at Frisco for the third consecutive year. Tejeda is off to a strong start, and may force a promotion to Double-A (and into our Top 100) if he keeps it up for another few weeks.

Ljay Newsome, RHP, Seattle Mariners
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   FV: 35
Line: 6.2, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 10 K

Notes
We touch base on players like Newsome when we write the org lists. He threw a lot of innings last year and he barely walked anyone, so we checked on the stuff to see if it cleared the bar to stick someone on the list at all. With Newsome, that had not been true. Despite all the strikes, his fastball has been in the mid-to-upper 80s basically since high school, and those guys typically max out as spot starters. Now, Newsome is different. He took part in an offseason velo program and now resides in the 91-94 mph range. He’s clearing his front side a little more, his two-seamer has more tail, he’s working up in the zone with his four-seamer more often, and is setting up his changeup better. Take the performance of a 22-year-old repeating Hi-A with a grain of salt, but know Newsome has grown and changed, and is off to a strong start.

A Weird Box Score
Tulsa pitchers combined to no-hit Arkansas into extra-innings last night, but still lost due to a slew of walks in the 10th inning. The Arkansas staff allowed five hits, but fewer total baserunners than Tulsa did, so in my opinion, justice was done.

Weekend Notes
I saw mostly amateur stuff over the weekend, as both Adley Rutchsmann and Andrew Vaughn (the top two prospects on our Draft Board) were in the state of Arizona. Neither did anything to merit a move in our rankings. The only surprising moment of my weekend was seeing a person in a Detroit Tigers polo operating an Edgertronic camera. To this point, I had only seen Houston employees training cameras like that on hitters.

We’ve begun experimenting with high speed video and while some of its applications (beyond just looking cool) are obvious, especially as it relates to pitching (who is spin efficient, who is not, ah, there’s also a two-seamer, etc), we’re curious if there are applications on the hitting side beyond just breaking down mechanics.


Top 27 Prospects: Kansas City Royals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Kansas City Royals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Royals Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Seuly Matias 20.6 A+ RF 2022 45+
2 Brady Singer 22.7 A+ RHP 2020 45+
3 Daniel Lynch 22.4 A+ LHP 2021 45+
4 MJ Melendez 20.4 A+ C 2022 45
5 Nick Pratto 20.5 A+ 1B 2022 45
6 Khalil Lee 20.8 AA RF 2020 45
7 Nicky Lopez 24.1 AAA SS 2019 45
8 Jackson Kowar 22.5 A+ RHP 2021 45
9 Kris Bubic 21.7 A LHP 2021 40+
10 Kyle Isbel 22.1 A+ RF 2021 40+
11 Richard Lovelady 23.8 MLB LHP 2019 40+
12 Meibrys Viloria 22.2 MLB C 2019 40
13 Daniel Tillo 22.8 A+ LHP 2021 40
14 Scott Blewett 23.0 AAA RHP 2020 40
15 Yefri Del Rosario 19.6 A RHP 2021 40
16 Kelvin Gutierrez 24.6 AAA 3B 2019 40
17 Emmanuel Rivera 22.8 AA 3B 2021 40
18 Foster Griffin 23.7 AAA LHP 2019 40
19 Gerson Garabito 23.7 AA RHP 2020 40
20 Carlos Hernandez 22.1 A RHP 2022 40
21 Yohanse Morel 18.6 R RHP 2024 35+
22 Austin Cox 22.0 A LHP 2020 35+
23 Brewer Hicklen 23.2 A+ CF 2021 35+
24 Omar Florentino 17.5 R SS 2024 35+
25 D.J. Burt 23.5 AA 2B 2020 35+
26 Josh Staumont 25.3 AAA RHP 2019 35+
27 Janser Lara 22.7 A RHP 2021 35+
Reading Options
Detail Level
Data Only
Full
Position Filter
All

45+ FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 20.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 70/70 40/60 50/40 40/45 70/70

With few exceptions (Joey Gallo is one) even the most whiff-prone big leaguers struck out less than Matias (34% career K%) when they were in the minors. But Matias’ physicality and bat speed are so supreme, the gap between his talent and that of most players so obvious, that there’s a chance he can be one of those exceptions, even if it’s in a streaky, inconsistent manner like Domingo Santana or Carlos Gomez. As a teen, Seuly was already posting exit velocities on par with burly, Quad-A type hitters. We hope he learns to take a walk, but “Randal Grichuk with more raw power” is a good player, so we’re cautiously optimistic that the Royals at least have a contributing big leaguer here, and a potential superstar if there’s contact/approach refinement, which is admittedly easier said than done.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Florida (KCR)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 50/60 91-94 / 95

Well-regarded in high school in part because of his very loose, athletic, albeit somewhat unusual delivery, the Blue Jays drafted Singer in the 2015 second round. Negotiations broke down and Singer went to Florida. After an uneven but promising freshman year in the bullpen, Singer’s command improved and he carved up SEC lineups for the next two years. There’s plenty to pick apart here if you want to: Singer’s stuff still isn’t loud, he doesn’t get many whiffs from pro level hitters, his delivery turns off some scouts, and his breaking ball often lacks bite.

Even scouts who like Singer think he has limited upside, but the results he got in the SEC and his long track record of durability are compelling. He has great feel for pitching and, we think, future plus command. Singer sneers and goes right at hitters, he’s really competitive, and is likely to move up the pro ladder quickly. On talent, he’s a No. 4 or No. 4/5 type of starter, but the potential to eat tons of innings, and therefore be more valuable than that, seems higher than usual here, too.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Virginia (KCR)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Cutter Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 50/50 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-95 / 97

On the Cape and in the first half of his junior spring, Lynch looked like a solid third round prospect, a pitchability lefty sitting 88-92 mph with mostly average stuff, and above-average feel and command. In the month or so leading up to the draft, Lynch’s velo ticked up, and down the stretch he sat 92-94, touching 95 mph deep into starts, with an assortment of offspeed pitches that all flashed above-average. The track record of Virginia arms is concerning, but Lynch seemed less beholden to the issues traditionally associated with their prospects, with some scouts considering him endearingly rebellious.

He throws a cutter, slider, curveball, and changeup that all flash above-average, with the slider occasionally flashing plus. He was 93-95 this spring, so the velo uptick has held for nearly a year now. He’s a potential No. 4 if this continues, maybe more if it’s just the start of something.

45 FV Prospects

Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Westminster Christian HS (FL) (KCR)
Age 20.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 55/60 30/45 45/40 45/55 60/60

Opinions regarding Melendez’s defense have been surprisingly mixed considering he was an adolescent catching prodigy. Team framing metrics have him graded as an average receiver, and he’s added mass since high school, when he was lean and lithe, so he is no longer quite as twitchy, but he’s not really a risk to move off the position. Instead, where it once seemed like Melendez might turn into an elite defender, it now appears he’ll merely be good.

That mass has added power, though, the kind of power that would certainly profile everyday were Melendez able to get to it in games. He strikes out a lot, enough that teams are concerned about it. He was on early drafts of our Top 100 but was one of the prospects we were most often told to move down when we sourced teams for feedback. He could be an everyday catcher with power, but there’s bust risk because of the contact issues, to say nothing of the grisly recent history of teenage catching prospects going bust.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Huntington Beach HS (CA) (KCR)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/55 55/55 30/50 40/40 50/60 60/60

Pratto went from two-way duty as a high school senior, to Low-A teenager in his first full pro season, and he performed admirably. Pratto hit .280/.343/.443 with 14 homers at Lexington, largely thanks to a hot August. He also stole a surprising 22 bases, but based on how thick and muscular he looked during 2019 spring training, that seems unlikely to continue.

Some of the pre-draft notions that Pratto had elite plate discipline (part of why he generated some irresponsible Joey Votto comps at the time) seem false now that we have a larger sample of data to look at. It makes it more important that Pratto get to all his power so he can profile at first, something made even more imperative by his mediocre, early-career contact rates. We like his chances of doing that and becoming a fine everyday first baseman who adds value on defense.

6. Khalil Lee, RF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2016 from Flint Hill HS (VA) (KCR)
Age 20.8 Height 5′ 10″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 55/60 35/50 55/50 45/50 60/60

Lee’s 2018 Fall League showing was so poor that it forced us to consider a serious re-evaluation, even though we often toss out bad AFL looks because of how fatigued some of the players are. The quality of his at-bats and the senselessly aggressive hacks Lee would take were not traits of physical exhaustion. Ultimately, we left Lee where we had him since he suddenly grew into power during his senior year of high school.

Once a little two-way LHP/CF prospect, he’s now a right fielder with power, who walks and is currently stealing bases. A 40 runner from home to first, Lee runs better than that under way but was too brazen a thief early in his career and made too many outs on the bases. He got better at picking his spots last year. His contact rates are concerning, but they’re offset by the walks and thump enough that we think he projects as a solid-average regular in right field.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from Creighton (KCR)
Age 24.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/50 40/40 20/30 55/55 50/55 55/55

Lopez is a slick defensive shortstop who walked more than he struck out at Double- and Triple-A last year. Those traits make him very interesting and perhaps someone we aren’t properly enthused about. He’s small and has very little raw power, but Lopez’s feel for contact is so good that he ends up with sneaky, in-game doubles pop. His three-year ZiPS projections have him at nearly two annual WAR, which means he arguably belongs on our Top 100 list. His realistic ceiling is that of an average regular, something that may be harder to accomplish if Adalberto Mondesi‘s presence forces him to second base, where the offensive bar is higher.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Florida (KCR)
Age 22.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 40/50 55/60 40/50 93-96 / 98

Kowar had a seven-figure asking price coming out of high school, which was just out of reach of what clubs were willing to commit from their spending pools. He was set to head to Clemson until a late coaching change caused him to reconsider his commitment, and the Tigers ultimately lost him to Florida (and Cal Raleigh to Florida State). Kowar’s velocity ticked up before he even played in an official game for the Gators, sitting 93-95 and hitting 97 mph in preseason scrimmages before his freshman year. He kept that velocity throughout his college career and developed a plus changeup.

The two issues for Kowar are his very short stride, which causes his velocity to play down, and his breaking ball, which is not great. It’s still most often a below average pitch, with curveball velocity and three-quarters slider shape. Cogent pitch design may help the pitch, or indicate the Royals should just scrap it altogether and try something like a cutter or slider. These issues are almost identical to Luke Weaver’s coming out of Florida State; he’s appeared to have solved those at times, though not at others.

40+ FV Prospects

9. Kris Bubic, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Stanford (KCR)
Age 21.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 55/60 40/50 89-92 / 94

A dominant junior year would have had Bubic in the late first round mix, but his control backed up, especially late in the year. Though he only throws 87-91, his fastball plays well in the zone as his delivery (which is similar to Clayton Kershaw‘s) creates tough angle on the pitch. Bubic’s best pitch is his changeup and it’s most effective when he’s gotten ahead of hitters, which he often did not last year. When he’s throwing strikes, Bubic looks like a solid No. 4 or 5 big league starter. He began the year at Low-A Lexington, and seems a likely mid-year promotion candidate if he pitches well there.

10. Kyle Isbel, RF
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from UNLV (KCR)
Age 22.1 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 30/50 50/50 45/55 50/50

Isbel hit .319 and .290 as a freshman and sophomore, respectively, and then grew into a new grade of power in his junior year while maintaining his contact skills and taking advantage of pitchers’ newfound hesitance to attack him in the zone. None of his tools are especially loud, but Isbel does several things fairly well and he has a slight chance to play a passable big league center field. If he moves to a corner, he might need a plus bat to profile, but that seems possible given how good his feel to hit was as an amateur. He could be a well-rounded everyday outfielder even without a plus tool.

Drafted: 10th Round, 2016 from Kennesaw State (KCR)
Age 23.8 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/60 40/40 50/55 91-95 / 96

Surface-level evaluations of Lovelady’s stuff show two above-average pitches in a mid-90s fastball and long-arcing slider, but those grow into true plus offerings once you factor in some of his mechanical traits. His lower arm slot, a release point approaching Josh Hader’s unique spot, creates very odd angle on his stuff. It’s especially tough on lefties, who have a .224 OBP against Lovelady each of the last two years. Lovelady also has better command, especially breaking ball command, than most relievers. He’ll be able to get swings and misses from righties by way of back foot sliders, and he can beat them in the zone with his heater.

We put 40 FVs on two-pitch, upper-level relievers like this, but the seemingly significant impact of Lovelady’s delivery, combined with what looks like will be multi-inning usage, gives him a chance to be one of the more valuable relievers in baseball.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Colombia (KCR)
Age 22.2 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 50/50 30/45 20/20 40/45 70/70

The Salvador Perez injury makes it much more likely that we get an extended look at Viloria with the big club this year after he was given a 10-game sip last September. There’s some power here, but Viloria has to sell out to get to it in games because his swing’s not naturally geared for lift. Instead, he leans into a contact-oriented approach, and generates his power through strength in his hands.

On defense, Viloria has one hell of an arm, but the rest of his catching traits are only okay. He falls a little short of what it would take to consider him a regular due to issues on both sides of the ball, but he’s still only 22 and we think he’s at least a high-probability backup.

13. Daniel Tillo, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Iowa Western JC (KCR)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 50/55 40/50 40/50 92-95 / 97

Tillo is a recent velo spike guy who has been up to 97 this spring, but he was often into the mid-90s last summer. Both of his secondaries are capable of missing bats, but he has to locate his slider for that pitch to be effective, and his general feel for the craft is lacking, so that may never happen consistently. Despite his long arm action, Tillo also has a diving changeup that hitters will swing over the top of, or make awkward contact with. It’s No. 4 starter stuff, but we think Tillo’s control means he’ll likely move to the bullpen eventually.

14. Scott Blewett, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from Baker HS (NY) (KCR)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 6″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 50/55 40/45 45/55 91-94 / 96

Huge extension adds about 2 mph of perceived velocity to Blewett’s fastball, and he leans on it heavily. Blewett was a cold weather prep arm who needed a lot of grooming and though none of his pitches are plus, he’s developed enough to be considered a high-probability backend rotation piece. He’s going to throw a lot of strikes and locate his breaking ball in spots that hitters can’t do much with. His big, sturdy frame might eat a ton of innings while Kansas City rebuilds.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (ATL)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 40/50 35/50 91-94 / 96

One of the more talented prospects cut loose by the Braves during their international scandal, Del Rosario’s fastball creeps into the mid-90s, and he has a good curveball and a sturdy build that is admittedly less projectable than is typical for a 19-year-old. His strike-throwing took a step forward in 2018, but his profile includes fairly significant relief risk. He spent all of 2018 at Low-A Lexington but has dealt with a biceps issue this spring, and isn’t currently at an affiliate. He’s in that No. 4 or 5 starter/potential late-inning reliever area as far as stuff goes, and is probably several years away from the majors.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (WAS)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
45/55 50/50 35/40 40/40 50/55 60/60

The Royals lauded Gutierrez’s glove after acquiring him, going so far as to say that they think he could handle shortstop if they needed him to. At least in our longest stretch of in-person evaluation of Gutierrez, he has looked just okay at third base, and saw time at first.

The bat-to-ball skills are real. He’s a career .286 hitter in the minors and has reached base at a .346 clip. A lack of game power probably means Gutierrez fits better in a multi-positional reserve role than as a regular at third or first base. He appears athletic enough to handle the corner outfield spots, and it makes sense to give him time there in the near future.

Drafted: 19th Round, 2015 from Universidad Interamericana HS (PR) (KCR)
Age 22.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 50/50 30/45 45/45 45/50 55/55

We’re proponents of Rivera’s bat; his swing is compact, he has barrel control, and he is very difficult to beat on the inner half. He’s not a very good defensive infielder, however, and doesn’t have the power to profile at places further down the defensive spectrum. It’s natural to wonder if he can catch, and Rivera has a catcherly build, but we just don’t know if he can, and his arm strength isn’t a obvious fit for the position. He may end up playing a corner bench role, basically the one we have projected for Gutierrez one spot ahead of him in this system, but we’d have to see him play other positions before feeling confident in that projection. He only really does one thing, but it’s the thing we think is most important.

18. Foster Griffin, LHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2014 from First Academy HS (FL) (KCR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / L FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
40/40 55/55 50/55 50/55 87-91 / 93

There have been stretches during Griffin’s pro career when either his command or velocity have slipped a tad, and he’s been knocked around during those stretches. When both are fine, he’s a good pitchability lefty who feeds hitters a steady diet of secondary pitches. Often, this type of hurler becomes Tommy Milone, but Griffin’s curveball is a little better than that (though, Milone has a good cutter), so we like his chances of playing a No. 5 starter role soon.

19. Gerson Garabito, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 23.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/45 55/60 45/50 45/50 90-93 / 94

He doesn’t throw all that hard, but Garabito has an impact breaking ball and, other than in 2018, a history of throwing lots of strikes. Other than his plunging 12-6 curveball, Garabito’s stuff is very average and his fastball may be vulnerable once hitters have seen it a few times. It might make him more viable in a multi-inning relief role where he can throw the curveball a ton and use the fastball as a change of pace pitch.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (KCR)
Age 22.1 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/45 50/55 40/45 93-95 / 97

Hernandez is a high-probability fifth starter/middle reliever depending on how his breaking ball develops. He throws hard, he has a good change up, and he’s an inelegant, but relatively efficient, strike thrower. We tend to think he’ll just end up blowing heat past people in relief, but Hernandez is still only 22 and it makes sense to let him work on his breaking stuff on a starter’s pitch count in the hope that something improves.

35+ FV Prospects

21. Yohanse Morel, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (WAS)
Age 18.6 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Morel had just arrived in the U.S. last year when the Nationals sent him to Kansas City as part of the Kelvin Herrera trade. At age 17, Morel performed against older competition while being asked to adjust to a new country and parent organization at the same time. His stuff was still strong in the fall, where he was 90-94 with a mid-80s, split-action changeup that was often plus. He’s not physically projectable, but he’s athletic and has some traits typical of sinker/changeup-centric rotation pieces.

22. Austin Cox, LHP
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Mercer (KCR)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+

Cox is a small school lefty with low-90s heat (he’ll touch 94 but sit 88-91 later in starts) and a breaking ball with bat-missing vertical action. His high slot might make it hard for Cox to command his stuff to all quadrants of the strike zone, and his lack of present changeup is concerning, but if he can back foot his breaking ball, he’ll have a way to deal with righties. He needs a third pitch, change or not, but should otherwise end up as a good lefty reliever.

Drafted: 7th Round, 2017 from UAB (KCR)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 208 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Hicklen went to UAB planning to play both football and baseball, but the school’s football program was shut down when he got to campus, and he was drafted and signed by Kansas City before it was reborn. He practiced with the team, but never suited up for the gridiron.

2018 was his first year of full-time baseball and he hit .307/.378/.552 with 17 homers and 29 steals, albeit as a 22-year-old at Low-A. His strength/raw power and straight-line speed are what you’d probably expect from a college wide receiver, but Hicklen’s compact, in-game swing prioritizes contact. He’s predictably raw and somewhat stiff rather than graceful and coordinated but he has physical ability, he plays really hard, and there’s a chance some of the skill-based parts of the game come to him in his mid-20s.

24. Omar Florentino, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 17.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 135 Bat / Thr S / R FV 35+

Signed for $750,000, Florentino is a little spark plug with elite short-area quickness and transfer. His defensive range will play on the middle infield, though his arm might fit better at second. While Florentino has viable swings from both sides of the plate, his raw power projection is limited by his size.

25. D.J. Burt, 2B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Fuquay-Varina HS (NC) (KCR)
Age 23.5 Height 5′ 9″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Burt began playing all over the field in 2018 and is intriguing as a speedy utility guy who takes good at-bats. He has almost no playable power, so there’s a chance his offensive skills don’t hold water at the upper levels (pitchers may just attack him because of the lack of power, deadening the impact of his patience), and he’s just an org guy, but he’s a sleeper utility man who may get a shot sometime during this Royals rebuild.

26. Josh Staumont, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Azusa Pacific (KCR)
Age 25.3 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Staumont would sit 99-99 and touch 101 or 102 in college and also has a dastardly curveball, but he’s a 6 or 7 walks per nine guy, and hasn’t been able to make headway in the control/command realm as a pro. He’s 25 now, and will probably get some exposure to the big leagues just to see what happens, but he would seem to be on the 40-man fringe.

27. Janser Lara, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (KCR)
Age 22.7 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+

Lara throws really hard and his breaking ball has plus raw spin, though visual evaluations of that pitch are not as strong as the spin rates suggest. He may benefit from a release or grip adjustment because his fastball movement is wildly inconsistent. So, too, is his control, and Lara will likely end up in a bullpen. It’ll take plenty of polish to make something of him, but there’s late-inning stuff here.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

Young Guys Who Might Pop
Rylan Kaufman, LHP
Wilmin Candelario, SS
Jeison Guzman, SS
Maikel Garcia, SS
Raymond Lopez, CF
Anderson Paulino, RHP
Rubendy Jaquez, 3B

Kaufman was a $722,000 JuCo 12th rounder who can really spin a curveball (2750 rpm average in pro ball). He’s still just 19, has a lanky frame, and already bumps 92, 93 on occasion. Candelario is a balletic defensive shortstop who adds little flourishes to just about everything he does. The entire offensive package is below-average right now, but we’ll see what happens with the frame. Speaking of waiting on the frame, Guzman is now 20 and has finally started to fill out in a positive way. He’s going to strike out a lot, but has a chance to rise into the main portion of the list this year. Garcia is a smooth, rangy defender and has a good frame but he’s very weak with the bat right now. Lopez looked intriguing (above average runner, gap pop, feel for center field) before he was seriously injured in 2017, and then he had a bad 2018. He’s a bounce back candidate. Paulino is a strong-bodied 20-year-old who sits 93-97. His upper-80s slider has vertical break, but it’s blunt and lacks that bat-missing bite. Realistically, he’s a developmental bullpen piece, but there are some late-inning components in place if that slider gets tighter. Jaquez is 20 and has above-average bat speed.

Potential Role-Playing Arms
Jonathan Bowlan, RHP
Zach Haake, RHP
Arnaldo Hernandez, RHP
Andres Machado, RHP

Bowlan’s stuff has been all over the place, sometimes even during the same start. He was 89-95 during his first outing and could be a sinker/slider reliever, but the Royals have done fairly well with sinkerballers lately. Haake will show plus stuff for an inning or two before his command starts to waivers. He could be a mid-90s, plus slider reliever. Hernandez is 23 and could be a changeup-centric reliever if his fastball ticks up in relief. Machado is a mid-90s/cutter reliever without a pitch that will obviously miss bats.

Bench Types
Michael Gigliotti, OF
Gabriel Cancel, 2B
Bubba Starling, CF
Blake Perkins, CF
Kort Peterson, 1B
Juan Carlos Negret, RF
Cristian Perez, SS

Gigliotti was a plus runner with feel for the zone who was a 40 runner this spring, his first back from an ACL tear. If the speed returns, he’s a likely bench outfielder. Cancel is a career .265 hitter, is at Double-A, and could be an infield utility bat. We still think Bubba Starling, who runs well and plays a fine center field but has never found a good swing foundation, plays in the big leagues. Perkins is now 23 and still lacks physicality, but he can really run and play center. Peterson is a corner guy with some contact skills. Negret has plus power but little feel for contact. Perez is an instinctive defender with some feel to hit.

System Overview

We spent a lot of effort trying to discern what the Royals were trying to do with their 2018 draft bonus pool, which was the biggest in baseball last year, because it was going to have such a profound impact on the rest of the draft. They ended up with all college value picks (and, eventually, Rylan Kaufman), which tasted disappointingly vanilla at the time, but now looks like a clear-headed approach as it yielded five of the org’s top 10 prospects and several other interesting ones, our Bowlan skepticism be damned.

This is a top-to-bottom reset, with maybe four or five players on the big league roster who are realistic parts of the next competitive Royals team, at the same that there aren’t any top 100 prospects currently in the system. The big wave of talent that represents the crest of the rebuilding wave is at Hi-A Wilmington right now, and whomever becomes the second pick in the upcoming draft (be it Adley Rutchsmann or Andrew Vaughn, the two players we think are the most likely to go first or second based on talent) should be advanced enough to join them pretty quickly, so long as the Royals don’t take a high schooler. Whoever the pick, barring a sizable leap from one of the 45 FV players on this list, the new 2019 draftee will immediately be the club’s No. 1 prospect. Perhaps, if enough of that wave actually pans out, they’ll be good again sooner than the overall quality of the farm indicates.

We also have them linked to outfielder Erick Pena, who is No. 4 among our 2019 July 2 prospects at the time of publication. So there’s some more exciting talent coming. But right now, the most important parts of the org are the amateur scouting and player dev staff who might help Kansas City create tradable big leaguers.


Eric Longenhagen Chat: 4/12/2019

12:01
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Please give me a minute to do something to the Royals list (which runs Monday) before I forget.

12:04
Eric A Longenhagen: Thanks, let’s begin

12:04
Chris: What do you see out of Spencer Howard, Daniel Lynch and DL Hall? Can any of them develop into being a #3 or better?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Howard and Hall have a chance for 3 pluses with fringe command, Lynch could be a bunch of 55s with 55 command. That’s right on the #3/4 fringe depending on the inning load

12:05
Lilith: Why do you prefer Abrams over Witt?

12:05
Eric A Longenhagen: Better feel to hit

Read the rest of this entry »


Daily Prospect Notes: 4/11/19

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Cole Tucker, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
Level: Triple-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 5   FV: 50
Line: 3-for-5, HR, 2 SB

Notes
Readers are often looking for a prospect outside the top 50 who might break out and move near the top of our overall list. My answer to that question is typically some big, projectable teenager who I expect to experience sizable physical growth. Tucker is rare in that he’s also a viable answer to this question even though he turns 23 this summer. Having answered once-relevant, shoulder-related questions about his arm strength, Tucker is now seen as a plus-gloved shortstop who has good feel for contact. But because he still has this big, seemingly unfinished frame on him, we think it’s possible that he comes into power a little late, and he might take a sizable leap. A source indicated to me that Tucker looks noticeably bigger and stronger this year. He hit for power during the first week of the season, and his batted ball data should be monitored for a possible indicator that he’s made a mechanical adjustment, too.

Tarik Skubal, LHP, Detroit Tigers
Level: Hi-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: HM   FV: 35
Line: 6 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 6 K

Notes
Kiley saw Skubal last night and had him up to 97, with an average breaking ball. A possible second or third rounder as a college underclassman, Skubal’s amateur career was derailed by an elbow injury that required Tommy John. He missed his junior year, instead throwing side sessions in front of scouts close to the draft. Nobody was confident enough to pull the trigger on drafting him, and he went back to school and couldn’t throw strikes. The Tigers signed him after his redshirt junior year for $350k and he threw almost all fastballs during his first pro summer. Things seemed to have clicked a bit.

Michael Baumann, RHP, Baltimore Orioles
Level: Hi-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 28   FV: 35+
Line: 5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 R, 10 K

Notes
Orioles pitching prospects should be considered potential movers this year as the new front office applies the player dev philosophy that seems to be working in Houston. Baumann already has some components Houston might have otherwise tried to install; he has a vertical release point that looks like it creates backspin, he throws hard, and he works up in the zone. Maybe that just means he has less to fix and is likely to improve more quickly than others in the system. He was up to 96 last night.

Brendan McKay, LHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Level: Double-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 2   FV: 60
Line: 4.2 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 3 R, 11 K

Notes
McKay’s stuff is not especially nasty — he was 91-95 last night — but his fastball plays up because of good extension. All of his pitches look the same coming out of his hand, and he has shockingly good feel for pitching even though his attention has been split between the mound and the plate for much of his career. If he keeps dominating Double-A hitters like this, it’s fair to start considering him as a potential big league option sometime this year.

Shed Long, 2B/3B/LF, Seattle Mariners
Level: Triple-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: 6   FV: 50
Line: 4-for-5, BB, walk-off HR

Notes
Shed’s defensive assignments mimic what we saw during spring training. He remains a 40 glove at second base who survives through a combination of athleticism and will, but he’s going to mash enough that you want him in your lineup every day. I tend to think of multi-positional players as individuals who excel defensively at various spots, but maybe it’s time to consider if players who can really hit can be barely playable at several positions and just spend each game at a different spot in the field, wherever they’re the least likely to touch the ball that day. Willians Astudillo would seem to be another candidate for a role like this, and perhaps it could be taken to a batter-by-batter extreme. Hiding your worst defensive player is old hat in other sports; maybe there’s a better way to do it in ours.

A Quick Rehabber Update
I saw Angels lefty Jose Suarez rehab in Tempe yesterday. He looked good, sitting 91-93, with command and an above-average curveball (it’s slow but has good bite, and he commands it), and some plus changeups. He didn’t break camp due to a sore shoulder, which is kind of scary, but the stuff looks fine. The Angels rotation has struggled with injuries, so Suarez might see the big leagues this year. He’s in our top 100.

On Pedro Avila
Padres righty Pedro Avila makes his big league debut tonight against Arizona. Expect him to sit 90-94 and touch 96, have scattered fastball command, and try to work heavily off secondary stuff — a change and curveball — that is consistently plus. His long term role may ultimately be in the bullpen, especially since three-pitch relievers may become more necessary due to forthcoming rule changes.