The best prospect in baseball, Guerrero hit a superhuman .381/.437/.636 across 95 games (mostly at Double and Triple-A) despite being about six years younger than the other athletes in the Eastern and International Leagues. The ball doesn’t just sound different off of his bat; when he really lays into one, you can feel a thump inside your chest, as if someone set off a firework at home plate. It’s explosive, beautiful, and paradoxically violent considering that Vladimir is so childlike in his shape and demeanor. He plays with a vivacious enthusiasm, totally unashamed of his own at times bizarre mannerisms, as if the way he feels when playing elite pro baseball is how most of us did with a wiffle ball in our hands during adolescence. (Late during Fall League, he was cranky and petulant with umpires.)

But his is not a childlike stature. His listed 6-foot-1, 200 pounds is a farce, and on the few occasions that Guerrero and Peter Alonso (who is listed at 6-foot-3, 245) were standing near one another during Fall League, Vlad was clearly the larger human being. While he reaches an almost shocking top speed on the bases given his size, Guerrero does have lateral mobility issues that impact his range at third base. He is very likely to move to first base or DH at some point in his early 20s, but leaving him at third, even if he’s not very good there, might help motivate him to keep his weight in check for as long as possible, something that could be more important than the quality of his play in the field since Vlad had knee issues during the 2018 season.

Really though, it matters very little where he ends up playing. This is the best hitter in the minors and the stick will play anywhere. For at least two years now people around baseball, including the late Mel Didier, swore that Guerrero would be ready for and competing in the majors before he turned 20. Toronto’s desire to maintain control of his talent for as long as possible scuttled that notion late last summer when they chose not to promote him, and Vlad will turn 20 in March before this season even starts. He should be up early this year, and immediately become one of the game’s most exciting, productive hitters. He is the cornerstone of the Blue Jays franchise, and perhaps a cornerstone of our sport.

There’s some contextual disappointment surrounding Bichette’s 2018 statline because he didn’t recreate his video game numbers from the year before, but he still netted an incredible 61 extra-base hits as a 20-year-old at Double-A. We remain skeptical of his long term viability at shortstop, where he continues to see most of his reps, but his arm is plus and teams are growing increasingly willing to put players with limited lateral quickness at short if it means shoehorning a special offensive talent into the position, and Bichette is one.

Ultimately, it probably doesn’t matter where he ends up playing defense because his bat is likely to profile. He has scintillating bat speed, and Bichette’s hand-eye coordination and bat control are an effective foil for the garage band noisiness of his swing, which hasn’t negatively impacted his ability to make contact in pro ball. Bichette ditches his leg kick with two strikes, something we’re not certain is all that helpful based on visual evidence. Ideally, Bichette will start lifting the ball more often (he has a league-average ground ball rate right now) and turn some of these doubles into homers, but it’s hard to justify making a change when he has been wildly successful so far. Status quo Bo is still a doubles machine who probably stays on the infield, and is a likely All-Star.

A 2017 Jansen breakout coincided with good health and a pair of prescription lenses. He walked more than he struck out across three minor league levels, and rose to Triple-A and into our overall top 100. He had a similarly strong 2018, which included a Futures Game invite, a .390 OBP at Triple-A, and then a strong 30-game big league stint in August and September, all reinforcing that Jansen’s 2017 breakout was legitimate. A solid if unspectacular defender, Jansen’s pop times were depressed during his big league cameo, hovering between 2.05 and 2.10, both below average for a catcher. But he’s an average receiver and ball-blocker, and is a perfectly acceptable defensive catcher without a disqualifying shortcoming.

Where Jansen shines is in the batter’s box. His hands work in a tight loop, giving Jansen the capacity to catch velocity and still lift the baseball, and he’s strong enough to muscle out balls to his pull-side, though to this point his approach has yielded more doubles than homers. He is a pull-only plodder and he’ll likely always be a low BABIP guy, and it’s possible major league pitchers will find ways to attack him in ways that limit his power output, but he’s going to make a lot of contact and reach base, which, at catcher, could make him an All-Star.

We still know very little about Pearson compared to most 22-year-old pitching prospects. He popped up seemingly out of nowhere as a sophomore at a lesser Florida junior college but quickly entered the first round discussion when JuCo ball kicked off in January of 2017. As the draft approached, Pearson was showing better secondary stuff in games and bumping 100 mph in bullpen sessions for scouts. He forced his way up draft boards even though teams had little history with him, and some were skeptical of the new velocity or concerned it would lead to injury.

Pearson made seven short but dominant appearances in the Northwest League during the summer and was poised to begin 2018 at Hi-A Dunedin (an aggressive assignment), but he suffered an intercostal strain and began the season on the DL. In his final extended spring rehab start, he was sitting 94-96 and touching 98 with the fastball. He finally toed a Florida State League rubber that week and lasted 1.2 innings before a comebacker struck his wrist and forearm and fractured his ulna. The injury ended his regular season after just five outs.

After rest and some rehab during instructs, Pearson went to Arizona for the Fall League. His stuff was electric there, his fastball always sitting 95-99 and cresting 100 mph often. He threw a 104 mph fastball and a 95 mph slider during the Fall Stars game, and he was able to dump his upper-70s curveball in for strikes throughout his six-week tenure, though he threw no changeups. Pearson was also horribly wild at times. It’s fair to conclude that rust was to blame for his occasional wildness but because the pro side of the industry has seen so little of Pearson, it’s impossible to know for sure.

There’s a strong possibility that he just ends up in the bullpen, but if he does and he breathes one-inning fire like he did during Fall Stars, he basically has Aroldis Chapman’s stuff (though perhaps not the same extension or approach angle). Provided he stays healthy, Pearson’s future is bright, albeit unclear. He’s likely to be handled with care for a while in order to keep him healthy and manage his workload after what was essentially a lost 2018, but given the wide variance and top shelf stuff, there is still frontline starter potential.

Groshans immediately stood out to scouts on the showcase circuit, showing a Josh Donaldson starter kit with similar swing mechanics, a plus raw power projection, a plus arm, and a third base defensive fit. He essentially held serve on that first impression and went 12th overall to the Jays out of the same Texas high school as the Jays’ second round pick, Adam Kloffenstein. Groshans isn’t quite the same level athlete as Donaldson, and there are contact concerns with an active swing like that, but there are some bat-to-ball skills and plenty of mistake power he can already tap into, as shown in a loud debut in the GCL. Many of the pro scouts who saw Groshans weren’t fans and saw below average tools in their looks when he fatigued late in the pro season, but the things to watch for here are the plate discipline and contact skills, because the position and power aren’t really up for debate right now.

Reid-Foley has been a similar pitcher from his junior year of high school all the way to his fifth year of pro ball in 2018. His arm action and delivery are a little stiff, and his command isn’t quite enough to be a traditional starter, but he’s stayed healthy and flashes two plus pitches with knowledge of the right way to sequence them, if not always execute them flawlessly. The Jays will continue to run him out there as a starter — he made 31 starts and threw 163 innings last season across three levels — but most agree this is more of a multi-inning or high-leverage reliever, as opposed to a traditional starter. The pure stuff would fit any role on a staff, but the quality of the strikes (his command) is the issue, rather than the amount of strikes (his control), which was evident from his 5.13 ERA in his major league debut in 2018.

Smith was noticed early in his career at Maryland for showing early round tools as a defender who can stay in the middle infield with above average raw power and some feel to hit. The feel to hit came into question in his draft year, as his swing got a little too pull/power oriented, helping him slip to the fourth round. The Jays rave about Smith’s makeup and preparation, and how he spearheaded the adjustments to his swing to have a shorter path to the ball and increase his contact ability. He now has a flatter-planed swing, and one scout compared his offense to Jordy Mercer, while another thinks Smith is a 50 hitter with 50 game power. Most scouts think he’s fringy at shortstop despite a plus arm, and would shift him to second base long-term for the best fit, where he’s got a chance to be above average. An 85 to 100 wRC+ with solid average defense at second base is worth 2-something WAR, so while it isn’t sexy, there’s some performance here, real changes to explain it, and a pretty good chance to be a 50 or 55 FV big leaguer.

Kloffenstein was the Blue Jays third pick in the 2018 draft from the same high school as Groshans, but it appears the Jays had the 12th and 88th overall picks evaluated much closer in talent than the picks themselves would indicate. Groshans got slightly below-slot bonus (17th highest in the draft) while Kloffenstein was well above-slot at $2.45 million (29th highest bonus). We ranked them 28th (Groshans) and 42nd (Kloffenstein) in our pre-draft rankings. Kloffenstein is a prototypical projection Texas arm, with a lanky frame, loose arm action, occasional mid-90s velo, and an above average breaking ball; some scouts saw parallels to Michael Kopech, projecting Kloffenstein to throw 100 mph in the next couple years. He didn’t pitch much in pro ball or instructs as Toronto was managing his innings and getting him used to the pro schedule. Kloffenstein’s main objectives will be to get more innings, stay healthy, and keep progressing, as he only showed mid-90s velocity and starter feel at times in the spring. Toronto’s bet is a bit speculative, based on projection more than performance.

Pardinho was one of the more celebrated 16-year-old pitchers to sign in recent memory, drawing a $1.4 million bonus in 2017, which was behind only Shohei Ohtani among his pitching peers in the class. Pardinho grew up in Brazil, which has a large Japanese population and he has some Japanese heritage; his windup clearly points to a Japanese influence.

The issue here is that Pardinho is listed at 5-foot-10 and 155 pounds, and isn’t much bigger than that right now, though he has a sturdy build. 18-year-old pitchers need to have big velocity, or projection to add velocity, to be top prospects since they generally start losing velocity in their mid-20s; that innate velocity, or projection for it, offers some margin for error. There are exceptions to this benchmark, like Zack Greinke, cases where a pitcher has been a pitchability type with above average stuff from his teenage days all the way into a big league career, but those instances are very rare. Pardinho will sit 92-95 and hit 96 mph early in outing and settle around 90-93 later. His curveball flashed above average as an amateur and he mixed in a slider that lagged behind, but those two pitches are both average to above now. They’re different pitches but still can run together at times, common for a younger pitcher. Parindho’s changeup is his fourth pitch now and it’s around average, but he separated himself with above average command projection, which helped him post gaudy numbers in his pro debut in the Appalachian League at 17.

Pardinho is undoubtedly advanced and projects as a No. 3 or 4 starter if things go well, but he was essentially pitching like a college senior in a league where a college senior can dominate and then never get to Double-A. Pardinho is a prospect because he’s advanced enough to pitch like a 22-year-old when he’s 17 years old. We’d just like to see either his stuff improve — or hold that velocity for the whole game — or see performance against more advanced hitters before we shoot him up the list like he’s the next Greinke.

Thornton spent 2018 at Triple-A Fresno before he was effectively showcased in the Arizona Fall League. He has bat-missing, big league stuff, sitting 92-95 and touching 96 in multi-inning Fall League appearances, and sitting comfortably in the 95-96 range when he was asked to air it out for a single inning. Thornton also has elite breaking ball spin rates. His 12-6 curveball spins in excess of 3,000 rpm and his firm, upper-80s slider/cutter often approaches that mark, which is rare for a breaking ball that hard. He also has a unique delivery that disorients hitters, during which his arm wraps behind his lower back. His arm action is ugly but, short of a 7-day DL stint this year after he was hit with a comebacker, Thornton hasn’t been hurt as a pro.

His usage has been atypical, however. His starts were often spaced out by seven or eight days in 2018, and it’s unrealistic to expect him to have that kind of recovery time between turns on a big league pitching staff. If asked to throw every fifth day, his stuff may not be as nasty as it was this year. He projects as a No. 4 or 5 starter but may also be deployed in a multi-inning relief role.

McKinney’s batted ball profile shifted dramatically after the Yankees acquired him from the Cubs in the Aroldis Chapman deal. Since high school, he had been a feel-for-contact corner guy with batting practice power that didn’t manifest in games, but the Yankees got his ground ball rate down from 42% to 30% and he started to mash before they flipped him to Toronto for JA Happ. He hit for power in a prolonged big league look but struggled badly against breaking stuff, something that may be an issue moving forward. McKinney doesn’t have a whole lot of offensive wiggle room because he’s so limited on defense, but the hit/power combo suggests he is a Seth Smith-like corner platoon bat who’s ready right now.

Biggio opted to attend Notre Dame rather than sign with the Phillies out of high school, and he had two bad years there before turning in a solid junior season. He didn’t hit for power in pro ball until he reached Double-A in 2018, where Biggio exploded for 26 home runs, saw his walk rate climb all the way to 18%, and swiped 20 bags.

Nothing about Biggio’s swing is markedly different than it was in college. He’s tightened the circle made by his ritualistic, pre-swing bat swirl, and his hands load a little bit lower now than they used to, but mostly Biggio just has good feel for low-ball contact despite the upright nature of his swing, and has plus bat speed.

There’s skepticism surrounding Biggio’s ability to play second base, so the Blue Jays began expanding his defensive horizons last year with time at first and third base, as well as both outfield corners, which is where Biggio saw the most action in the Arizona Fall League. The uppercut nature of Biggio’s swing is going to lead to some strikeouts and his aggregate offensive profile looks much less promising in an outfield corner than it would at second base. If he could indeed play all of those positions, he’d be a very interesting Swiss Army knife with power, but realistically he profiles as a second-division regular or platoon outfielder.

Zeuch doesn’t have dominant stuff but he’s a keen sequencer with a firm grasp on how best to deploy his pitches to efficiently tally outs. He mostly pitches to contact with a low-90s sinker that has very steep downhill plane thanks to Zeuch’s height and fairly upright delivery. It’s helped him generate ground ball rates near 60% as a pro. Both of his breaking balls survive because Zeuch locates them. He’ll get ahead of hitters with his curveball and keep his slider just off the plate away from righties. Offspeed development remains key as Zeuch enters 2019 as a non-roster invitee. He may be a candidate for a true splitter, or modified version of it, rather than a straight changeup if the Jays want to try to turn him into Doug Fister, with whom Zeuch shares several other traits. Barring something unforeseen, like a new grip giving Zeuch a dominant secondary pitch, he projects as a backend innings eater.

Perez was part of the package Houston sent to Toronto in the unscrupulous Roberto Osuna deal. His stuff was down just a tad last year, with his fastball more often 93-95 than 94-97 based on our reports from the previous year. But Perez still has nasty stuff and managed to strike out 133 hitters in 115 innings, mostly at Double-A. His stiff, long arm action significantly inhibits Perez’s ability to throw strikes and he unanimously projects into a bullpen. But because he has three plus pitches (and we have the fastball projected as a 70 out of the bullpen), he could be a dominant late or multi-inning arm. He’s one of many new faces on Toronto’s 40-man and could debut in 2019.

Jimenez signed for $825,000 in 2017 out of Panama but is often compared to Venezuelan shortstops (like Vicuna, No. 28 on this list) for his advanced, non-flashy feel for the game. Vicuna is still the best defender in the system but Jimenez isn’t far behind him, with one scout grading his hands as a 70. We’re more bullish on Jimenez than Vicuna because there’s better rhythm, swing mechanics, and strength to his offensive game, so there’s a better chance for viable performance. Jimenez also gets high marks for his intelligence and makeup; he’s already fluent in English as a 17-year-old.

Martinez was one of the most explosive talents in the 2018 July 2nd class, getting the second highest bonus at $3.5 million, behind only 22-year-old Marlins center fielder Victor Victor Mesa. Martinez is currently ranked behind a number of players in his class because we still aren’t sure how his contact skills will project. He has big bat speed and projects for at least 60 raw power, along with sticking somewhere in the infield. We aren’t sure how his body will develop, and thus the raw power and the position where he’ll land are open questions. More importantly, he takes a high-effort, torqued-up cut at the ball, and the Jays like that he has eye-hand contact, but there’s still a ways to go to turn this intriguing ball of clay into a more finished product.

Tellez had a successful second tour of Triple-A in 2018, and reached Toronto in September just weeks after his mother, who had been fighting brain cancer for a while, passed away. His first six big league hits were doubles, a record, and then opposing pitchers began to make adjustments, and Tellez cooled, often chasing stuff out of the zone. He’s vulnerable to velocity up and was uncharacteristically tempted by soft stuff beneath the zone. He crushes mistakes and has natural low-ball ability, as well as feel for lacing hard gap liners to left field if fastballs away from him catch too much of the plate. It’s tough to hit enough to profile at 1B/DH, and we think Tellez is more of a platoon or second division regular. He should get an opportunity to be just that if something happens to Kendrys Morales and/or Justin Smoak.

Moreno converted from shortstop to catching right around when he signed out of Venezuela, and while he’s just 5-foot-11 and 165 pounds, he’s taken to the change and scouts think he can stick behind the plate. He’s twitchy and has plus bat speed with good bat control but can get over-aggressive at times and needs to tighten his zone. Moreno’s high-energy approach endears him to scouts and teammates, and there’s a reasonable chance he’s a backup, with some possibility these tools can turn into a starter down the road.

Conine is the son of former Marlins great Jeff Conine and Griffin looked like a sure first round pick in 2018 after a dominating summer on the Cape. Thing haven’t gone so well for him since then. Conine bulked up and got a bit stiffer, had a brutal start to the 2018 season, but closed well, finding a better approach to make more consistent contact. The Jays scooped him up as another legacy prospect in the system, but he was popped for PED’s (ritalinic acid, a stimulant) in November and will serve a 50-game suspension to start 2019. At his best, Conine has 60 or 65-grade raw power from the left side, a plus arm that helps him fit in right field, and good enough contact skills for a 45 or 50-grade bat to allow him to get to his power. He can get too uphill, aggressive, and pull-happy at times, so there’s some concern, beyond the suspension, about how much of his Cape performance will show up in pro ball.

Dominican Summer League stats are largely meaningless, but every year there is a prospect or two whose statline is so utterly dominant that it provokes immediate re-evaluation. Hiraldo, who was hitting .366/.429/.560 when July began, was one of those DSL hitters in 2018. When prompted about Hiraldo, pro scouts with coverage in the DSL reiterated what was said about him when he was an amateur. He was physically mature for his age, stocky, and strong, far more muscular than most of his DSL peers. He has plus bat speed, average power right now, and tracks pitches well and has some barrel control, so while Hirlado’s physical maturity should cause one to discount his statistical performance, he is a good offensive prospect.

There’s not much room left on his frame for good weight, and he has fairly limited power projection left. Scouts already anticipate a move off of shortstop to either second or third base. Hiraldo’s offensive talent could be sufficient to profile every day at either spot, just probably not as a star and probably not for several years considering the passive developmental track the Jays took with him last year when he probably should have been in the GCL for more than a 10-game August jaunt.

It seems like every year a hitter or two comes out of nowhere and causes quite a ruckus in Lansing. This year it was Young, who hit .285/.363/.445 with 50 extra-base hits and 44 steals for the Lugnuts. The travel ball circuit is not kind to economically disadvantaged families, and part of the reason Young was under-scouted as an amateur, as he told our own David Laurila, was because his family could not afford to attend heavily scouted showcases.

Another reason he may have slid toward the end of the draft was because he was constantly moving around. He was under the international scouting umbrella while he was young and living in the Bahamas, then spent his early high school years in Florida before relocating to Georgia for his senior season. It’s likely that three separate scouts in each org were responsible for scouting and gauging Young’s signability.

The Blue Jays got a deal done for $200,000 and Young has been a strong early-career performer. Pro scouts see him as a bit of a tweener but think there’s a chance he might be an everyday center fielder if absolutely everything comes together. He’s not a typical center field sprinter (our sources all have either a 50 or 55 on his speed) but he’s instinctive, and fine there for now. If Young does move to a corner, his hit/power combination is on the fringe of profiling. A switch-hitter, Young has power from the right side of the plate but he’s strikeout prone due to a lack of bat control. As a lefty, he has a gap-to-gap approach and good bat control, but not typical over-the-fence thump.

It’s possible that, even with middling offensive ability, Young could be such an excellent corner defender that he plays everyday anyway, and his makeup is universally lauded, so we like his chances of reaching and staying in the majors as some kind of role player.

The Blue Jays have a terrific young catching tandem in Danny Jansen and McGuire, who we project to play a glove-centric second fiddle to Jansen’s bat for the next half decade. McGuire has been lauded for his defense since high school, and he remains excellent back there, and has a plus arm. He has struggled in the past to lift the ball, and while he showed some movement in that regard last year, it’s unlikely that McGuire hits enough to profile as an everyday catcher.

Alford had a tumultuous and eventful amateur athletic career. He starred as a dual threat high school quarterback in Mississippi, and continued playing football in college even after the Jays, who at the time were able to offer Alford a now defunct two-sport deal structured to incentivize him to eventually commit to baseball, drafted and signed him. His college football career and home life were both tumultuous, as Southern Miss went winless during Alford’s first year under center, and several members of his family had legal troubles. Alford eventually transferred to Ole Miss, where he was asked to play safety, but that didn’t last long and he soon committed full time to baseball.

He’s dealt with constant injury as a pro and has issues with quality of contact when healthy. Though he’s a remarkable athlete with huge raw power and speed, we’re bearish on Alford’s ability to hit breaking stuff and do enough damage to play everyday. He projects as a bench outfielder. Because Alford has only been totally devoted to baseball since 2015, there’s a chance some of what currently impairs his on-field production can be remedied, but he has to stay on the field to develop that stuff.

A boiler plate middle relief prospect, Diaz was added to the 40-man this offseason and may debut in 2019. Though he has been developed as a starter to this point, command and repertoire depth limitations have scouts universally projecting Diaz to the bullpen. He has a slightly cross-bodied delivery, and he muscles up and slings in mid-90s fastballs and tilting, two-planed breakers. His changeup is firm, but continued reps in a rotation should help improve his feel for it and better prepare him to deal with left-handed hitters in the big leagues.

Taylor signed with Cleveland for $125,000 in the 10th round in 2016 out of a southern California high school. The report then was an explosive, quick second baseman with some tools who could use some refinement. That’s still mostly the report, but Taylor’s 2018 full season debut was excellent, hitting above league average in the Midwest League as a 19-year-old most of the year, despite a .270 BABIP. Some players naturally have a lower BABIP, but Taylor is a player who should have a higher-than-normal BABIP given his plus speed (44 stolen bases in 2018), solid plate discipline (11% BB to 19% K), and surprising game power for his size and age (nine home runs and 32 doubles).

Taylor can still make a boneheaded play defensively, use improper footwork at the keystone, or try to do too much at the plate, but the tools are here for a low-end everyday second baseman if things continue progressing.

Murphy has persevered through multiple injuries and surgeries (Tommy John and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome, just to name two) and finally had a full, healthy season in 2018, and was added to Toronto’s 40-man in November. His fastball is very hard and Murphy throws a lot of strikes, typically in the upper half of the zone. At times his heater has natural cut, he’ll flash an occasional plus curveball, and his changeup got much better throughout 2018. His injury history and violent, somewhat awkward overhand delivery are each of concern to teams, which generally have him projected in a bullpen role.

There’s sufficient strike-throwing here for Murphy to continue developing as a starter, and he could pitch at the back of a rotation, especially if his changeup keeps improving.

The first thing anyone talks about when Kirk’s name comes up is his weight. He’s built exactly like former A’s catcher Jeremy Brown, and one source body comp’d him to Chris Farley noting that, like Farley, Kirk is deceptively agile for his size.

Vicuna (pronounced like Acuña) signed for $350,000 in 2014 out of Venezuela and fits the archetype of the Venezuelan shortstop, with excellent feel for the game and instincts to get the most out of his tools. He was considered frail-looking at signing and has put on some strength since then, but still needs to add more to have a chance to make an impact offensively.

Vicuna is a plus runner who has above average hands, range, and arm strength, so even just hitting for consistent contact with enough power to be respected would be enough to make him a solid big leaguer. The Jays are encouraged by his 60 PA in the Venezuelan Winter League, where Vicuna had eight walks to 13 strikeouts, but also had just one extra base hit. He’s the best defensive shortstop in the system and, depending on which scout you ask, his makeup grades anywhere from 60 to 80, so we think he’s worth inclusion on the list.

Luciano was acquired by Kansas City in the trade that sent Jon Jay to Arizona, then selected by Toronto in the Rule 5 draft. He was the youngest player picked in the Rule 5 by a significant margin and if he makes the Jays’ Opening Day roster, he’ll be the first player born this century to play in the big leagues.

Though he’ll touch 96, Luciano’s fastball sits in the 90-94 range, and he has scattershot command of it, especially late in starts. His frame is less projectable than the typical teenager’s, so there may not be much more velo coming as he ages, but he has plenty of present arm strength and an above-average breaking ball, so there’s a chance he makes the Jays’ roster in a relief role. He has No. 4 starter upside if his below-average changeup and command progress, but Rule 5 selections who stick often put developmental priorities on the back burner and instead lean on what they’re already good at in order to succeed right now.

Vizcainno is a fairly standard teenage projection arm, perhaps slightly raw for his age from a strike-throwing perspective, though that’s understandable given the mantis-like length of his limbs. He’s an above-average athlete and there’s a good chance his release consistency becomes refined with more experience, though he may always have limited pinpoint command because his trebuchet-like overhand arm action makes it hard to work east and west. That’s not to say it’s a bad delivery. Vizcaino’s arm action is very efficient, and his vertical slot gives his promising curveball an awful lot of depth. It’s easy to envision Vizcaino working up and down with his fastball and curveball in concert with one another in a relief role, even if he never develops average control.

There are lots of promising components here, they’re just a little less polished than is ideal for a prospect who’ll be 20 this year.

Danner burst onto the scouting scene after his sophomore year of high school, showing low-90s stuff and a three pitch mix with the look of a future high pick as a pitcher. He maintained his above average stuff throughout most of his prep career, but the more scouts saw him behind the plate, the more they liked him long-term as a catching prospect.

Eventually, the Jays took Danner in the second round of the 2017 draft as a catcher, which marks the first time Danner hasn’t been splitting his focus on the diamond. He’s only played 66 pro games due to some minor injuries, so we haven’t seen as much as we’d like with him being relatively new to this position. He has above average to plus arm strength and raw power projection, and we think he can stick behind the plate, but the hit tool may take a little time, which is the main concern going forward.

A dual Dominican/Canadian citizen, Lopez was born in the Dominican Republic but his family moved to Montreal when he was 12, and he plays on Team Canada during international competition. That’s not to be confused with the Vancouver Canadians, the Blue Jays’ Northwest League affiliate for which Lopez also played last year, and played well. He walked more than he struck out, led the team in OBP, and saw action at every defensive position but catcher and first base as the club’s youngest member. A plus runner and above-average athlete, that kind of super utility role is Lopez’s realistic future projection. He has some feel for contact but will probably max out with 40 raw power, if that, so he’s unlikely to make strong enough contact to hit for as high an average as his pure bat-to-ball skills might indicate. Even if typical big league physicality never materializes, Lopez should be a versatile bench piece.

Stevenson was a 10th round senior sign out of Arizona, an afterthought until he went to the Appy League and hit a raucous .359/.494/.518 during the last two months of the season. Rookie-ball pitching is worse than what Stevenson faced in the Pac-12 and that performance should be considered with that fact in mind, but those numbers are exceptional and four corners scouts thought Stevenson, whose 2018 numbers at Arizona were worse than the previous year, was hurt during the spring. It’s possible pre-draft reports on Stevenson — plus runner, above-average bat, no clear defensive position, great makeup — were impacted by injury, and that Stevenson’s true talent is closer to how he performed during the summer, but the physical tools are indicative of a bench outfielder. Lansing is probably not going to clarify the situation next year because it’s so hitter-friendly, and we may have to wait until Stevenson gets a taste of Hi-A to know if the Jays have really found something.

The Blue Jays felt Melean was advanced enough for the GCL at age 17, and while he was a little more wild than is ideal, he is rather advanced for his age and has a chance to be a backend starter. Though Melean is less physically projectable than the typical teen, his fastball already resides in the 90-94 range and he has an above-average, upper-70s curveball. He has feel for locating a changeup but it lacks movement right now, so this, as well as fastball command, would seem to be logical developmental priorities moving forward.

Even those casually exposed to public facing prospect analysis become familiar with a few key concepts and player archetypes, and an early lesson often addresses the volatility of players like Florial, who have several elite tools that will lead to star-level performance if they hit enough, but who also carry significant risk that they will strike out too much to matter at all. Of course, the reason each individual player has strikeout issues can vary. Some hitters have feckless, over-aggressive approaches, while others can’t recognize breaking balls or have a problem with lever length and get tied up inside. Florial’s issues — his strikeout rate has fallen between 27% and 32% each of the last three years — appear to stem from his bat path and limited bat control. Stiff wrists cause his bat head to drag into the zone, which can cause him to be tardy on fastballs at the letters and, more frequently, flail at soft stuff dipping down and away from him. Yoan Moncada has similar issues that have yet to be remedied.

Florial does enough other stuff that, even if the strike outs remain an issue, he could still be a valuable big leaguer. He crushes anything down and in, has sufficient plate coverage to hit fastballs middle away, and has enough power to do damage to the opposite field. He also has good ball/strike recognition so, again like Moncada, there should be power, walks, and up-the-middle defense. We think Florial is likely to be an exciting but flawed everyday player, though it’s not audacious to think his relative youth (he was a 20-year-old at Hi-A in 2018) and inexperience (he also missed a year of reps due to a suspension for bad paperwork) leave more room for growth than we anticipate.

If evaluating purely on stuff, Loaisiga belongs in the overall Top 100 pretty easily. He holds 94-97 for six innings, his upper-80s slider with vertical break is reminiscent of early-career Brad Lidge, and he has somehow found changeup feel and command despite few career in-game reps. But while Loaisiga has mid-rotation, big league stuff, his career has been beset by constant, often severe, injury. Since entering pro ball in 2013, Loaisiga has only thrown about 200 career innings due to repeated injury and rehab, and his 68 innings pitched for the DSL Giants during his first pro campaign remain his single-season high. He missed all of 2014 with injury, then was released, and out of pro baseball for all of 2015. The Yankees unearthed him during the 2016 23U World Championships in Venezuela and after a frantic late-night call from scout Ricardo Finol, signed Loaisiga immediately. Just two innings into his first 2016 start, Loaisiga’s velocity dropped into the mid-80s and he left the mound pointing at his elbow. He rehabbed quickly enough that he was able to make 11 short starts with Staten Island the following year.

Because Loaisiga signed in 2012, he would have been Rule 5 eligible in the winter of 2017. The Yankees added him to the 40-man even though he had never completed a healthy start in full-season ball. In 2018, Loaisiga ascended quickly and showed flashes of brilliance against big league hitters, but he also made two more trips to the disabled list, including a late-season stint due to shoulder inflammation. Shoulder issues have sidelined Loaisiga pretty frequently during his career, and while he may have some years where he peaks in the 3-4 WAR range, we also think he’ll have some years where he barely pitches, or that he may just move to the bullpen.

At this time last year, Garcia was a 40 FV and an interesting prospect to monitor. He was a slightly-built, shorter righty with a knockout fastball/curveball combination, who was moved very quickly as Garcia saw 2017 action in the DSL, GCL, and Appy league levels at age 18. We were eager to see if he could continue to perform like that in full-season ball as a 19-year-old and boy, did he. Garcia had an xFIP under 3.00 at each of his three stops last year: eight Low-A starts, five in Hi-A (one of which is the linked video), and one in Double-A. Garcia’s changeup and command both ended up playing better than we expected, with his changeup regularly flashing average to above — confirming he has starter’s stuff — and his command sufficient to deal with A-ball hitters. The concerns about his durability tied to his stature are still there. He’s 5-foot-10 and anywhere from 163 to 175 pounds. He threw 74.0 innings last year and even scouts who love Garcia concede he may not be a 170 to 200-inning type of arm. Instead, he may be in the Rich Hill or Lance McCullers Jr. mold, where you’ll get 125 – 135 innings and hopefully have him healthy enough to fill whatever role fits the staff best in the playoffs. Hill and McCullers are 55 or 60 FV types, so that’s likely Garcia’s upside if things break right.

Garcia is a very good athlete, which is what allows him to repeat his delivery, throw so many strikes, and have at least average command despite a delivery that has crossfire, recoil, and effort at release. We’re hesitant to knock Garcia’s delivery simply because it’s unusual, or due to his size, because his performance at this age has also been remarkable. He has a rising fastball with which he operates up in the zone, and he knows exactly how to use his high spin curveball, which has been over 3000 rpm at times. A well-located fastball up, a high-spin curveball down, and a changeup down to keep hitters honest is a good combo, and Garcia knows how to use them in sequence to set up hitters. There’s some question about his approach being too simplistic to work at the big league level, but again, we would bet on Garcia figuring out how to make it work. He’ll open 2019 in Double-A and could be good enough to crack the Bombers bullpen late in the season.

Cabello was in the Others of Note section on this list last year, third amongst the 2017 July 2nd signees, none of whom had played a pro game at the time. But Cabello had the strongest 2018 of the group, and he arguably already had the loudest tools. He was one of the best performing amateur hitters from Venezuela in his signing class (just ahead of Everson Pereira, who’s further down this list), and he was also a plus runner who could’ve been converted to catcher given his quickness, arm strength, and squatty, powerful frame. But the Yankees didn’t want to slow down his bat by asking him to learn to catch. Some scouts who had a one or two game look at this summer didn’t love Cabello’s non-projectable frame, and they rounded down if he didn’t hit in those short looks. But those who saw him for more than a few games saw the advanced bat amateur scouts saw.

One enthusiastic scout described Cabello’s running as plus, though he’s not the typically graceful, long striding plus runner. That scout he said had a “grinding gait, full effort, kicking up grass as he runs like the rooster tail of a speed boat.” In addition to potential plus hit and run tools, there’s above-average arm strength and raw power, and now the start of a strong statistical performance record. And if things go askew at the plate, the notion that Cabello could catch is interesting. One Yankee source described him as an 80 makeup guy, often a prerequisite to consider sending a player behind the plate. He’s a well-rounded offensive player who looks like an up-the-middle defensive fit of some kind. He may be a top 100 prospect by mid season.

Many of the teenage prospects on this list received big bonuses or were flagged after a season in the DSL as a prospect to watch; it’s unsurprising when those types move up this list. Contreras wasn’t one of those. He didn’t appear on last year’s list, which had 65 players in total — he wasn’t even in the Others of Note section. Contreras sat 90-92 mph with a curveball that flashed above average, but was still in the early stages of knowing how to use those weapons while pitching in the DSL and GCL in 2017. We first heard his name when he was wowing pro scouts who saw him in Staten Island last summer. The first scout we spoke with said Contreras had a Luis Severino starter kit, flashing two plus pitches and a starter’s delivery, though the changeup and command were understandably a bit behind. Those things progressed throughout the summer and he got a taste of Low-A at the end of the year. Yankees officials love Contreras’ makeup and competitive fire, and think he’s got a chance to be the 200-inning starter who comes out of this system, as the other pitchers on the list have one or more of the typical concerns (durability, command, arm surgery, less experience, or a standout pitch that fits best in relief). Contreras could grab a spot in next year’s Top 100 with a full healthy season of performance like his breakout 2018 campaign.

A February appendectomy began Abreu’s roller coaster of a 2018, a fitting campaign for one of the more frustrating pitching prospects in baseball. Abreu, who was acquired from Houston as part of the Brian McCann deal, will regularly touch 101 with his fastball and has plus secondary stuff across the board. Career-long issues with strike-throwing, coupled with two consecutive years of multiple DL stints, continue to funnel Abreu toward a bullpen role despite the depth of his repertoire. The appendicitis set back Abreu’s spring preparation and he was DL’d for most of April while he caught up. He felt elbow discomfort at the end of June (he had elbow and shoulder issues in 2017, too), missed a month, made some nightmarish rehab starts in the GCL, then bounced back and had his usual stuff late in the year. While we believe it’s increasingly likely that Abreu eventually winds up in relief, he has the stuff to work in a multi-inning, Josh Hader-like role in that scenario, and could become one of the top 20 or 30 relievers in the game. He may see his first big league action in 2019 but we don’t expect he’ll be up for good until 2020.

Pereira was probably the least exciting of the top three prospects from the Yankees 2017 July 2nd haul, behind Raimfer Salinas and Antonio Cabello. Pereira falls into the bucket of heady, up-the-middle Venezuelan players with solid tools to go along with excellent in-game amateur performance. He is an above-average runner with an above-average arm and plus center field instincts, which makes him an above-average defender there. He’ll likely grow into average raw power, but below-average game power due to a more gap-to-gap approach. Pereira has advanced feel to hit and held his own despite a higher strike out rate than expected in Pulaski as a 17-year-old, underlining the Yankees’ confidence in his ability to make adjustments. The reasonable upside is a 2-3 WAR, solid regular in center field, which may not excite Yankees fans but would be an amazing return on his $1.5 million bonus.

Entering summer showcase season, Seigler was known as something of an oddity: a switch-hitting, switch-throwing catcher who was also an ambidextrous reliever when needed. As the summer wore on, Seigler grew on scouts, was chosen as the backup catcher for Team USA, and quickly took the starting job from eventual Marlins second rounder Will Banfield. Seigler was able to do this (and eventually become a first round pick) due to his innate present feel for contact at the plate and receiving behind it. In addition to solid contact skills, Seigler also started to lift the ball in games closer to the draft and get to all of his fringy raw power. This polish helped to make teams less worried about his advanced age relative to his prep peers, and some scouts thought he was among the top 5-10 players in the entire draft.

Seigler had a solid pro debut that was in line with the expectations of any of the pro scouts we talked to who watched the Yankees’ GCL club. He’s an average runner and an above-average athlete for the position, projecting as an above-average defender with a 65-grade arm. Some clubs don’t like the recent track record of prep catchers and considered taking Seigler and then moving him to third base, but his feel for catching is too advanced to throw away. There are some similarities to another prep catcher from the prior draft: M.J. Melendez of the Royals. Melendez is a little twitchier while Seigler is a little more advanced in terms of skills. Seigler’s mother is Navajo and he would be the first Native American big leaguer to debut since Joba Chamberlain and the second ever from the Navajo Nation, joining Jacoby Ellsbury.

The effortless grace with which Gil generates upper-90s velocity is absurd. Even more absurd is that the Yankees were able to pilfer a perfectly-built teenager with this kind of arm strength from Minnesota in exchange for a recently DFA’d Jake Cave. Perhaps it’s because, despite the comical ease of his delivery, Gil is extremely wild. Scouts often project heavily on the command of athletic pitchers, as well as pitchers with with good deliveries; those traits often go hand in hand. But the aesthetic pleasure one derives from Gil’s velvety mechanics is subverted by release inconsistency, a dichotomy also displayed by frustrating Dodgers prospect Yadier Alvarez throughout his young career. It also might simply be unreasonable to expect an inexperienced 20-year-old with this kind of velocity to have any idea where it’s going. Gil missed all of 2016 due to a shoulder surgery and has thrown just over 100 career innings. His secondary stuff is not as visually explosive as his fastball, but there’s plus-plus pure spin here, and Gil is in an org adept at altering deliveries to help enable their guys’ secondary stuff. Many players ranked below Gil in this system have a much better chance of reaching the majors than he does, but very few have the ceiling he has if his issues are resolved.

In 2017, Schmidt turned a corner in his draft spring for South Carolina and looked likely to land in the middle of the first round, flashing four above average pitches and starter command for a No. 3 to 4 starter profile. His elbow blew out before the draft, and he had Tommy John surgery a month before the Yankees eventually took him in the middle of the first round, though for nearly $1.5 million below slot. Schmidt came back in 2018 from his surgery and essentially picked right up where he left off, hitting 96 mph and showing the same stuff as before, though it understandably was not quite as consistent. Schmidt was almost sent to the Arizona Fall league to rack up innings but instead will make his full season debut in 2019, likely starting in Hi-A and probably getting some time at Double-A, with a chance for a big league debut in 2020 if all goes to plan.

Medina was up to 96 mph as an 15-year-old amateur, eventually going unsigned on July 2nd due in part to 20 command. Then he hit 100 mph as an amateur with improved feel, which is when the Yankee scooped him up for $300,000. He was the highest variance player on last year’s version of this list and is once again. The pure stuff hasn’t change and it’s top of the line: a 95-97 mph heater that has hit 101 mph, a power curveball that’s anywhere from 60 to 70 depending on the day, and a changeup that flashes 55 or 60 at its best. His command is now a 30 that we project to be a 40. But he’s still a teenager, so there’s a chance that things click for him and he finds 45 command and 50 control, which would be the minimum to stick as a starter with this kind of stuff. Medina’s issues aren’t physical — his delivery is fine and his arm stroke is clean. Instead, the problem appears to be mostly mental. He’ll throw well in the bullpen only to have things will snowball for him in game situations. One source described his issues as stemming from a need for greater mental maturity and to not be so hard on himself, which are exactly the kinds of traits that come with general social maturity. That said, this sort of stuff rarely comes with starter command, so Medina is probably either a high-wire act reliever with bonkers stuff or a starter with the stuff ratcheted down a bit, similar to what Touki Toussaint has done the last couple seasons.

We ranked Alcantara fourth among the 2018 international amateurs because he has some of the group’s more advanced in-game feel to hit, he has a really good chance of not only staying in center field but might also be great there, and he has the best physical projection in the entire class. The more recently a source has seen Alcantara, the nuttier the reports get. Now that he has access to pro-quality athletic facilities, he’s already put on some good weight and has been hitting for more power during batting practice in the Dominican Republic. At one point he hit several BP homers, not just over the outfield fence, but over the fence that encloses the complex itself.

Built like Lewis Brinson and Cody Bellinger were at the same age, Alcantara has better feel for contact than either of them did as teens. Hitters this size often struggle with strikeouts due to lever length, and while Alcantara hasn’t faced much pro quality velocity to stress test this aspect of his offense, there are no early indications that strikeouts are going to be an issue for him. It may take physical maturation and little else to enable a breakout, and the comps industry personnel are placing on Alcantara (Devon White, Dexter Fowler, and Alex Rios to name a few) are very strong. It will be interesting to see how the Yankees handle his 2019 assignment, as it sounds like his skillset is ready for the GCL but it may behoove the team to leave him in the less-scouted DSL as a way of hiding him from clubs who don’t scout pro ball there.

Stephan’s cross-bodied delivery compares closely to that of Brewers righty Freddy Peralta, as both get way down the mound (Stephan gets nearly 7 feet of extension on his fastballs) and have lower arm slots that make right-handed hitters very uncomfortable. He makes heavy use of a hard slider that at times looks like a cutter. It has enough movement to miss bats if Stephan leaves it in the zone and he’s been able to back foot it to lefties. Changeup development is paramount, and a fair number of scouts think Stephan ends up in the bullpen both because his change is quite a bit behind the typical 23-year-old’s and because he throws exclusively from the stretch. While that’s a possibility, the way Stephan’s delivery enables his stuff to play up could make him viable in a multi-inning role. He reached Double-A in 2018 and has a chance to debut in 2019.

For a 16-year-old, high bonus pitcher, Rodriguez was a rarity in a number of ways. Since he defected from Cuba, he had a pretty long track record of high-level international competition. He pitched as a 14-year-old for the 15-and-under Cuban team, and posted a 69 IP, 32 H, 2 XBH, 20 BB, 102 K line. Then, at 15 years old, he pitched for the 18-and-under team and posted a 21 IP, 16 H, 4 BB, 25 K line. He also struck out five of the six batters he faced in the MLB showcase in February, which is the linked video. On top of that, Rodriguez flashes four above average to plus pitches, has hit 97 mph, and has starter-caliber feel to pitch. He’s also 6-foot-3 and 205 pounds, and has some room to add muscle. If you’re looking for things to nitpick, there’s some effort to his delivery that should be ironed out, and he does vary his arm slot, though it’s by choice. The Yankees will try to limit him to two breaking balls and one slot, but recognize that Rodriguez could be one of those rare pitchers like El Duque who can be effective throwing the kitchen sink from a half dozen different arm slots. Going back to what’s rare about Rodriguez, he seems to have it all, except for maybe an ideal present delivery and, obviously, stateside pro performance. This is about as high as we can rank a teenage pitching prospect who has only been seen a handful of times and hasn’t really faced many hitters who can handle his stuff, but there’s lots of room to grow on this 40+ FV if this trajectory continues.

Nelson was probably a little underrated as a fourth round pick in 2016 out of a Florida panhandle junior college. He didn’t start focusing exclusively on pitching until JUCO, and was up to 95 mph with an above average curveball, so he was seen more as an upside relief type, but it’s gone better than most clubs expected in pro ball. Nelson sits 94-97 and hits 98 mph even as a starter, and mixes in the same above-average curveball, but has also added a 55-flashing splitter, and, starting in instructs, added a 88-91 mph cutter that flashed average. The overall command is still a bit below average, mostly due to below average command of his off-speed stuff. Nelson can sometimes get cute and pitch backwards rather than focusing on developing fastball command and throwing his best pitch more often. There’s still a shot that he can turn into a traditional starting pitcher, but it looks more likely that he’ll be some kind of multi-inning middle relief or setup guy. After a solid 2018 that ended with a taste of Double-A, Nelson should begin 2019 there and may be in line for a big league look at the end of the year if the team needs some bullpen help in the Bronx.

For some international scouts, Salinas was ahead of Cabello and Pereira, and was the top prospect in their 2017 signing class; he got the biggest bonus of the group at $1.85 million. Nothing has fundamentally changed since then, as Salinas’ 2018 season was ruined by a broken ring finger and knee bursitis that limited him to 11 games. You can see why scouts were so excited when you run down the tools: a plus runner with a plus arm and a chance for plus defense in center field, along with above average raw power potential and a shot at a 50 or better hit tool. Salinas likely heads back to extended spring training and the complex leagues to get bulk at-bats to catch up on reps, but there’s upside to shoot up this list with a healthy 2019.

Garcia signed for $500,000, which puts him behind the top tier of signees in the 2017 class for the Yankees. But his tools are arguably just as exciting, though riskier. He’s 6-foot-5 or 6-foot-6 depending on whom you ask and is only listed at 205 pounds, but is north of that and will get bigger. If he doesn’t have 80 raw power now, he will in the next few years, and he’s actually an average runner underway, though his first step isn’t great and he’ll lose a step or two with maturity. Garcia has the arm to profile in right field, but down the road, he’ll likely be an average glove there at best. There’s obvious leverage to his swing and he hit 10 homers in 44 games in the GCL as a 17-year-old, so it’s not like he’s sushi raw at tapping into his best tool. Dermis Garcia had similar tools at this stage, so that’s one way this can go. Another would be former Tigers prospect Steven Moya, who played last year in Japan. There are also two massive corner outfielders with 80 raw power currently in the big leagues for the Yankees, so you know what Garcia looks like if everything goes perfectly, but a 42% strikeout rate in Rookie ball isn’t the best starting place from which to get there.

All the teams we’ve spoken with about Vargas over the last year or so had multi-million dollar evaluations of him based on how he looked in workouts. He ran a 6.4 60-yard dash, had infield actions and a plus arm, and had a surprising ability to hit despite his stature, at the time weighing just 143 pounds. He was twitchy, projectable, looked fantastic at shortstop, and was old enough to sign immediately. We believe Vargas was originally slated to wait until 2019 to sign a pro contract (sources have indicated to us that it was to be with Cincinnati) but the Yankees had enough pool space to convince him to change his mind and sign a year earlier for about the same money. He’s a potential everyday shortstop, though we may not see him at a U.S. affiliate until 2020 due to his size.

Nick Swisher’s eyes lit up when he was told that the last name of the player he was set to announce as the Yankees’ second round pick is pronounced “bro,” a word Swish uses as linguistic filler the way most of us use ‘um’ or ‘like’ more than we want to. While some teams preferred him on the mound (Breaux would touch 98 and his sawed off arm action and the cadence of his delivery are reminiscent of Jason Motte, himself a converted catcher) or were inclined to develop Breaux as a two-way prospect, the Yankees selected him to catch. Two-way duty in college means Breaux is currently raw as a receiver and a hitter, but he has a rare opportunity to become an impact bat behind the plate if he can start recognizing pro breaking stuff. If not, the mound is a terrific fallback option.

It was widely believed that the Yankees would use their 2018 second or third round pick on an over slot high schooler with a strong college commitment, perhaps someone a bit under the radar, like Adam Hackenberg or Max Marusak. It turned out to be Green, who was signed away from a Vanderbilt commitment for just shy of $1 million. Green ended up transferring to new high schools after his family had issues with the coaching staff in his original district — issues that ultimately led to a dropped lawsuit and then a countersuit for defamation. But he was an early Vanderbilt commit, scouts knew who he was, and it didn’t affect the way he was scouted. He really broke out at the 2017 Area Code games, when he took one of the most impressive BPs there and had among the best outfield arms. He hit several balls hard during the week but was clearly raw from a bat-to-ball standpoint, and many scouts thought he’d end up going to college because apprehension over his hit tool would prevent teams from paying him enough to go pro. Green didn’t face a lot of good pitching while he was in high school and his breaking ball recognition is immature. He may be a multi-year rookie ball guy, and he’s a high-risk, high-variance prospect whose body and skillset have been compared to Steven Souza’s.

Stowers performed and steadily improved throughout his sophomore and junior years at Louisville. Most scouts who saw him early in his draft spring thought he was a 55 runner who fit best in left field but didn’t think he’d have the power to profile there. Thus, they considered Stowers to be a bit of a tweener or the wrong side of a left field platoon, which is roughly where we had him pre-draft. Scouts who stayed on him (and knew they were the high scouts, so generally kept it to themselves) saw a 60 runner who could be average in center field, where a 50 or 55 bat with 45 power would be above average offense for the position. Enough people think that the second scenario is likely that we’ve notched him up to a strong 40 FV, and if Stowers performs like the believers think he can for all of 2019, he may be a 45 FV at the end of the year. He started hitting more down the stretch when he used a flatter planed swing, so it appears lifting the ball isn’t the swing that best suits him. That may limit his offensive upside a bit, but may also help him reach the big leagues faster.

Cabrera spent much of 2017 in Charleston despite his lack of physicality because he was procedurally advanced for his age, especially on defense. He is athletic, fundamentally sound, and has perhaps the quickest defensive hands in the entire org. At the very least, Cabrera projects as an outstanding multi-positional defender, but he also might just be plus at shortstop at maturity and need to play there every day. He also has advanced bat-to-ball skills and even though he has been physically overmatched for about 200 Low-A games over two seasons, he has somehow managed to maintain a strikeout rate in the low teens. Cabrera has a little, 5-foot-10 frame and it’s not clear whether he’ll grow into the kind of physicality that would make him a viable offensive player. If he does, the feel for contact is already in place and he could break out. Though likely a switch-hitting utility man, Cabrera has a sneaky chance to be an everyday shortstop.

Gomez stood out as a 15-year-old because of his one, truely freakish ability: he has a stone-cold 80 arm (clocked in the mid-80’s with a radar gun) and a quick release that allow him to regularly post pop times below 1.80 in games, which is generally a 70-grade time. Gomez is a mature-bodied prospect and a 30 runner presently, someone who appears “unathletic” on the surface. We often talk about football and baseball athleticism as being two different things, and Gomez is not football athletic, but definitely is baseball athletic. Instead of timed speed or visible strength, he displays quick-twich movement, first step quickness, and overall explosion through strength in the forearms, wrists, and hands. Gomez is an ideal case study in the differences, as he’s got soft hands and is mobile behind the plate, and has solid average raw power with similarly graded bat control. The Yankees may have a 5 defensive catcher with a 5 bat, 5 raw power, and an 8 arm here. That would be quite a find for $600,000, especially given the current wasteland that is big league catching.

Duran was a sleeper pick to click on this list last year but things did not go well. We liked Duran’s tools and 2017 DSL performance, as well as his loud minor league spring training, complete with gaudy in-game exit velocities as high as 112 mph. His 2018 started well with that March showing, but his stateside regular season debut was a disaster, with 4% walks, 28% strikeouts, and a 48 wRC+ in 53 games at Rookie-Advanced Pulaski. The tool grades are essentially the same except for the defense at second base, as the quickly thickening Duran is not a strong athletic fit for the infield. Some of the issues Duran had in 2018 were similar to the issues a teenage Drew Waters had at the same level for the Braves in 2017, before a breakout to top 100 prospect status in 2018. After a full year of success at the plate, Duran tried to do too much, chasing pitches more than he had in the past, getting into bad counts, then facing the best pitching he’s seen and not being able to get out of the slump. His mechanics didn’t break down and he’s still a teenager with plenty of time to adjust, but now poor plate discipline is something to watch going forward, to see if those bad habits can change or end up limiting his offensive upside.

Sauer’s velocity was way down last year, often resting 91-93 and sometimes ranging to 89-93, after he had gone long stretches of high school starts where he’d sit 93-95. His violent head whack and arm action caused considerable consternation among amateur scouts who worried about his long term arm health, but the org attributes Sauer’s 2018 velo decline to the rigors of pro ball, something it believes Sauer will be better prepared to deal with in 2019. The most electric version of Sauer has a high-leverage fastball/curveball combination, a two-pitch duo that could close games. If Sauer’s changeup and command improve, he has mid-rotation upside. He made strike-throwing strides in 2018, but the changeup is still below-average. He should be ticketed for full-season ball and see a substantial innings increase, but the key variable to watch when camp breaks is his velocity.

Estrada was a 45 FV on last year’s ranking, evaluated as an MLB-ready utility infielder or low-end regular at shortstop. During the offseason he was shot in the hip during a robbery in Venezuela and required surgery. The initial surgery was botched and Estrada needed a second operation during the summer, which ended his regular season. When he returned to action in the Arizona Fall League, he had clearly lost a step overall, but it was most obvious when watching Estrada play defense. There’s a chance this was just rust and that Estrada will go back to doing the things that placed him in the Yankees’ offseason infield conversation before he was shot; average range and plus actions at short, a plus arm, some speed, and feel for contact. He’ll bounce back into the 45 FV tier if those things return in the spring, but he looked like a fringe bench piece last fall.

When you watch Whitlock (video link above) the first things you should notice are his large stature and slightly awkward arm action and release. He has better feel than you’d guess for repeating his delivery, throwing his sinker down in the zone, and manipulating his slider, so you can see why he had good numbers across three levels in 2018 as a starter. There aren’t a ton of starters who look like this or pitch like this in the big leagues. Pitchers whose best skill is locating a good slider (like Cardinals recent first rounder Griffin Roberts, who drew Luke Gregerson comps from scouts) are often put in relief, though secondary-pitch heavy usage is now more common with guys in a rotation. The ceiling here seems like a No. 4 starter if you squint; a realistic outcome is more like a 7th inning reliever who can go multiple innings and get by with fringy velocity.

He’s not especially toolsy or projectable, but Olivares is so polished in all facets (especially his reads in center field) that it was he who the Yankees called up when early-season injury dominos necessitated that the they push a low-level outfielder to Hi-A. When Olivares was sent back to developmentally appropriate Low-A Charleston, he excelled. Tough to beat with only velocity because of how short his swing is, Olivares hit .322 for Charleston and would have won the Sally League batting title had he taken enough at-bats to qualify, but his hand was struck by a pitch in early July, ending his season. The general consensus is that Olivares may ultimately have limited value due to a lack of power, and end up either as a fourth outfielder or a regular on par with what Albert Almora or Manuel Margot have been to this point, and we agree that range of outcomes is most likely. But Olivares entered 2018 with a more open, upright stance that seemed to benefit his timing and enabled him to pull the ball more, so perhaps last year’s power output isn’t a complete mirage and there are some right-tail paths to everyday production.

Considering how much of the current Marlins regime came over from New York, one would think the two orgs would not only target similar types of talent but also have similar developmental vision for that talent. This does not appear to have been the case with King, who was a prospect afterthought when he was part of a seemingly innocuous trade between the Marlins and Yankees just after the 2017 season. King had been a Marlins 12th round pick out of Boston College a year and a half prior to the deal and, like clockwork, had only struck out about six batters per nine innings every year in college, as well as in his first two pro seasons. The Marlins altered King’s position on the rubber and made other mechanical tweaks to alter the movement profile of his pitches. After the Yankees acquired him, they let him return to what he was doing in college and he vastly exceeded even the most optimistic expectations in 2018. He led the Yankees system in strikeouts and innings while traversing three levels, reaching Triple-A.

The lynchpin of King’s success is his command of a dancing two-seam fastball that runs back onto his glove-side corner of the plate. Left-handed hitters think it’s coming at their hip, righties give up on it because they think it’s off the plate, and King gets a lot of looking strikeouts with it. There are questions about the quality of his secondary stuff. He has a quality changeup, but his breaking ball is mediocre. He seems to have added a cutter late in the year, and that pitch’s movement may better complement that of his fastball. Most teams have King evaluated as a stable backend starter; some think he should be in the 45 FV tier of this list. A purported nerd and exhaustive pre-start preparer, King is a high-probability big leaguer who we believe has limited ceiling, though if he develops 7 or 8 command, all bets are off.

When ‘pitchability’ is one of the first words a scout uses to describe a teenager, we don’t generally expect that teenager to also throw in the mid-90s. But such is the case with Gomez, who has a remarkable early-career ability to manipulate the shape of a fastball that touches 96. He can cut it, sink it, use variations in sequence together, and has feel for dumping in first-pitch curveballs for strikes. Gomez is still a lanky teenager who has problems repeating his delivery, so while he has obvious on-mound creativity, he doesn’t always execute, and his ability to locate needs to develop. Aside from the fastball, Gomez’s stuff is, or projects to be, close to average, and his likely long-term fit is at the back of a rotation. As soon as his command starts to improve, he’ll be capable of carving up the lower levels by mixing in all these pitches, and if it happens in 2019, he could end the year with Low-A Charleston.

The Yankees acquired Then from Seattle for 40-man bubble reliever Nick Rumbelowafter Then had just wrapped his first pro season in the DSL. He was, and remains, advanced for his age, but with just middling stuff and physical projection. He’s much more likely to end up toward the back of a rotation than in the middle of one, but the Yankees have had success developing velocity and Then’s fastball is already a little harder now than it was when he was with Seattle, so it’s possible there’ll be more heat here than we anticipate. For now, we have Then projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter.

German was a solid middle-round college pitching prospect going into the 2018 draft, with most clubs treating him as a 6th-8th round talent who could possibly be a target for the 11th-12th rounds and a $125,000 bonus, as cheap senior signs fill-in the latter stages of the top 10 rounds. Then German (Dominican-born and whose name is pronounced like the European country) had one of the latest pre-draft velo spikes possible, suddenly hitting 95 mph during the Atlantic Sun conference tournament in his final college game just two weeks before the draft. Velo is a dime a dozen these days, but German had the athleticism and arm action of a starter and had put on about 15 pounds in the previous 12 months, so some thought this could be coming. Clubs who had scouts at that start shot him up the board, and the Yankees jumped to the front of the line to take him in the fourth round. The velo spike held in pro ball: German sat 92-95 and hit 97 mph in fall instructional league and put on about 10 additional pounds after signing. The upside is a bit limited, as his slider and changeup still just flash average at best, but the Yankees are changing German’s slurvy college breaking ball into more of a true slider and pushing him to throw his changeup more, so it wouldn’t be shocking to see the future pitch grades move north as he continues to mature as a pitcher.

The gargantuan Perez was still throwing hard during the spring of 2018, but his stuff appeared to be depressed once the regular season began and he was much more wild than he had been the year before. He was shut down with shoulder inflammation after just six starts, then rehabbed in Tampa throughout June before it was determined he’d need surgery to clean up bone spurs in that shoulder, which ended Perez’s season. When healthy, he sits in the mid-90s and has a bevy of average secondary pitches that could be 55s at peak, and he has pleasantly surprising command for his size. Perez has No. 4 or 5 starter upside, maybe a little more than that if you think his size helps the stuff play as plus, assuming it and the strikes comes back.

Peraza is currently the lowest rated prospect of a quartet of Yankees that a couple of scouts grouped together as similar types: Oswaldo Cabrera, Thairo Estrada, Pablo Olivares, and Peraza. All are smaller, contact-oriented hitters with good feel for the game and up the middle defensive profiles. We’ve seen enough of this kind of prospect beat expectations and turn into steady 2-3 win players for scouts and analysts to know not dismiss them as quickly as they normally would. The hit rate is such that one of them will likely have more of a big league career than any five-game scouting look would suggest, since their abilities are often more subtle. Peraza may have the most defensive value of the group as a no-doubt shortstop, but he’s also the youngest, with the shortest track record and underwhelming performance, and a limited tools-based upside due to mostly average-ish grades. He’s seen some recent strength and power gains, although it may take longer to see those show up in his stat line.

Chirinos signed for $900,000 and made his pro debut last year, mostly playing in the GCL as a 17-year-old. The underlying numbers were just okay and the top line numbers were worse, in part due to bad luck, but the tools are still loud. In 2018, Chirinos played mostly shortstop, with a few games at second base, but behind the scenes, the Yankees have worked him out at every position on the field and think there’s a real chance he could move behind the plate and profile as an everday guy back there. He has an easy plus arm and what some club officials call 80 makeup to go with 50-grade raw power and speed. Most amateur scouts didn’t have questions on Chirinos’ bat, so they expect that to come around to 50 or better in time. There’s a chance, given this makeup and tools profile, that Chirinos could work his way into the new archetype of a multi-positional catcher utilityman (think Austin Barnes, Will Smith, Kyle Farmer, Connor Wong, Isaiah Kiner-Falefa, Josh Morgan, or Garrett Stubbs) who has become fashionable as progressive clubs look to have more flexibility in lineup decision-making.

So young was Rojas compared to his July 2 peer group that he had to wait until he had turned 16 a few months after the signing period began to finalize a $1 million agreement with the Yankees. He spent his entire first pro season as a 16-year-old in the DSL and posted a shockingly high strikeout rate (40%) considering how enthused international scouts were about his bat. It’s fair to consider the extreme whiff rate a red flag if you really want to, but we caution against putting too much stock into DSL stats, and expect volatile performance from a switch-hitter this young. Purely considering physical tools, Rojas is notable. He has plus bat speed from both sides of the plate and surprising power for his age. He also has athletic defensive footwork and actions, but his boxy, semi-mature frame likely projects to second or third base. He’s a switch-hitting infielder with power whose future is dependent on developing feel for contact.

Rojas was one of the players the Braves signed in the months before their international scandal; he became a free agent before playing a game for the club. After keeping his voided $300,000 deal with the Braves, Rojas was scooped up by the Yankees months later for $350,000. When he signed with Atlanta, Rojas was under-the-radar and weighed about 130 pounds with some quick-twitch ability, plus speed, and the hands for shortstop, a prospect who the Braves thought would grow with physical maturity. Move about 18 months into the future, and Rojas is a plus-plus runner with a plus-plus arm who is up to about 160 pounds and has achieved in-game exit velos as high as 108 mph. It’s still a flatter-planed, contact-oriented swing, and Rojas often plays out of control as he’s still learning how to harness his newly-improved tools, but the DSL performance was solid and this is too much like a Jose Reyes starter kit to ignore.

Garcia was one of the top talents in his July 2 class and got the biggest bonus ($3.2 million) the Yankees handed out in their pool-busting effort. Garcia was seen then as a mature-framed corner type with massive raw power, but there were questions about his contact and athleticism for defense. Those are still the issues to worry about here. Reports are that Garcia has slimmed and will continue playing third base in 2019, where his plus arm has a chance to play, unlike at first base, which is his most likely destination long-term. There was some chatter of developing Garcia on the mound, either exclusively or as a two-way player, but nothing came of it. In his age-19 and 20 seasons at Low-A, he hit 23 homers in 488 plate appearances, so he can already get to his grade-70 or 80 raw power in games (one source mentioned a 117 mph exit velo), but he also struck out over 30% of the time during that stretch. This is starting to feel like a Quad-A power hitter who only gets a big league cup of coffee or has a short-lived platoon/bench role, but he’s also still just 21, so we’ll give the raw tools and pedigree the benefit of the doubt for one more year.

Though he’d flash three plus pitches and at times look like a top 10 pick, teams had the kind of pre-draft concerns about Hall that are typical of high school pitchers (holding stuff deep into starts, command), and some teams rounded down due to perceived off-field issues, concerns that have proven to be unfounded, or at least were quickly remedied, in pro ball. Hall has also made on-field progress throughout 2018. Early in the season, he was wild. As it wore on, some mechanical issues were ironed out, and his changeup feel turned a corner through increased use. He dominated for long stretches of games during the second half of the season, including a commanding July during which he allowed just 10 hits and struck out 39 in 26.2 innings. The strike-throwing is still not great, but it has gotten better, and Hall’s stuff is really good. At around 6-feet even, Hall is short but he’s thick and strong, and scouts aren’t worried his durability. He has mid-rotation upside if his command continues to progress. He’s in the midst of answering every pre-draft question asked of him and has a chance to be an All-Star.

Diaz was a prominent and expensive part of the Dodgers ’15-’16 international spending spree that is now the subject of a Department of Justice investigation. He signed for a $15 million bonus — the Dodgers paid a dollar-for-dollar tax on his deal for exceeding their pool limit — during a CBA era that was more lucrative for international players. So advanced was Diaz that at age 19, the Dodgers saw fit to send him directly to Hi-A Rancho Cucamonga the following year, and he performed admirably for what amounted to a season and a half before enjoying a statistical breakout at Double-A Tulsa starting late in 2017. His stock and performance reached a pinnacle in 2018; Diaz slashed .314/.428/.477 with Tulsa, homered twice and won MVP at the Futures Game in July. Shortly thereafter he was traded to Baltimore as the headline prospect in the Manny Machado deal.

Diaz has a well-rounded collection of average tools that, in aggregate, promise to make him a valuable everyday big leaguer. He has slowly whittled down what was once a pretty big leg kick into something more simplistic, and it seems to have benefitted Diaz’s timing without subtracting from his power. He can open up and get the bat head on pitches in, and he has feel for opposite-field contact if he’s a little late on something away from him. We’d be surprised if Diaz became a 3-plus win annual WAR producer, but we think he’s a very stable everyday outfield prospect who’ll be big league ready in the next year and a half or so.

Mountcastle was identified early in high school because he played at an Orlando-area powerhouse that had eight players drafted between 2011 and 2016, including a first rounder in Zach Eflin, and, over on the gridiron, current Bengals quarterback Jeff Driskel. His high school coach, Jered Goodwin, now a FIU assistant, ran arguably the top travel program in Florida at the time, so Mountcastle had year-round reps in front of scouts for years. He’s still largely the same player he was in high school in terms of raw tools: plus bat control, plus raw power, with fringy speed and no clear defensive home because he has issues throwing. He’s played mostly shortstop and third base in pro ball but scouts keep comparing his profile to Nick Castellanos‘ and think he ends up in left field.

There’s some optimism that his arm will improve with a throwing program, or that he could play second base (which is worth a try), but usually these situations end with the player at the lower end of the defensive spectrum. Like Castellanos, Mountcastle is a little too aggressive at the plate but has the bat control to keep his strikeout rates from getting too high. The projection here is something like a 55 bat and 55 power, maybe a bit less if the approach doesn’t continue to improve, with below average speed and defensive value, wherever he ends up playing. We wish he were a little choosier at the dish — that’s a lower-risk, 2 WAR-type prospect. Mountcastle will start 2019 in Triple-A, so the wait shouldn’t be long.

Rodriguez was an early-velo guy in his draft class, notable as an underclassman because of his prodigious size and arm strength. Then he plateaued a bit and was sitting mostly 90-92 in short stints on the showcase circuit leading into his draft year. But right out of the gate the next spring, Rodriguez began running his heater up to 98, and was instantly in the first round conversation as soon as teams got in to watch him dominate pretty weak competition in Nacogdoches, TX. Rodriguez fits the mold of a first round prep righty, a player demographic increasingly perceived as risky on draft day. He has a big frame that remains relatively projectable, has big velocity and a great breaking ball, and shows other starter traits often enough that he projects as part of a rotation. Some scouts thought the changeup and command would progress, but not be weapons of their own; they had Rodriguez toward the back of the first round. Others thought the curveball and slider both flashed plus and didn’t care about the change, or thought his delivery only needed small tweaks. Those teams thought he could become a No. 2 or 3 starter.

It’s hard to get a grip on Hays, who has hovered at the edge of the 45/50 FV line here at FanGraphs since his breakout 2017. The tools are for real: plus raw power, plus arm strength, above-average bat control, speed and defense in right field and, until 2018, an unassailable record of performance. Still, corner-only hitters with approach issues — Hays is a free swinger with a pull-heavy approach — run the risk of having their lack of discernment taken advantage of in the majors with little defensive value left to fall back on. After reaching Baltimore in 2017, 2018 was a nightmare for Hays: he struggled out of the gate, had his approach tinkered with to try to fix things only to have it not work, then injured his ankle and needed surgery. He missed two months and continued struggling when he returned. Some rival clubs see a buy-low opportunity and would love to take a chance on Hays’ tools, but the Orioles probably aren’t selling low, with the rebuilding club offering an easy road to MLB playing time for the foreseeable future. There’s big offensive talent here if Hays can bounce back and find an approach that works in the big leagues. He’s volatile, though, and will be 24 in July, so this spring and early season are pretty important.

The first thing you notice about Akin is his hefty frame. He’s listed at 6-feet and 225 pounds, but he’s a bit north of that and has come into the last two spring training camps larger than expected. That said, Akin’s build isn’t seen as a huge problem going forward, as it hasn’t impacted his stuff, and most think he just needs to keep it in check a bit. Sources indicated to us that had he not hit his innings limit late in 2018, he would’ve gotten a big league look in September. The condition of Baltimore’s pitching staff is certainly favorable for a soonish Akin debut, and he’ll likely open 2019 in Triple-A.

He has above-average big league stuff, especially for a lefty: he sits 92-95 and hits 98 mph, mixing in a solid average slider and a plus changeup. His command ranges from 40 to 60 depending on the start, and Akin’s build often leads scouts to believe this is due to his conditioning. We’re wary of discounting a player just because he doesn’t fit traditional rubrics for success, and baseball is littered with unusual frames and mechanics, but Akin has also had hamstring and oblique issues. The stuff is of the No. 3/4 starter and, considering Baltimore’s current predicament, we expect him to be developed as a starter for as long as possible, though there is some bullpen risk. He’ll likely be up in 2019.

McKenna’s 2018 Arizona Fall League showing took those who had seen him during the spring and summer a bit by surprise. Even as he was hitting a raucous and unsustainable .377/.467/.556 at Hi-A Frederick, McKenna dealt with a myriad of lower body ailments that clouded his speed and defensive abilities in center field. In the autumn though, he was posting 70 and 80-grade run times to first base, and his range is center field is perhaps the best Baltimore will have seen since Ed Reed. Offensively, McKenna’s abilities fall somewhere between that incredible first half and his lousy late-summer showing at Double-A Bowie. He doesn’t have much raw power but he may hit an awful lot of doubles by slashing balls down each baseline, and by turning dribbling gap liners into hustle doubles. Big league pitching may eventually find locations to attack McKenna that prevent him from getting to his brand of power — he struggled to do anything with pitches down and in during Fall League, for instance — and if that’s true, he may end up as a fourth outfielder, but we tentatively have him projected as a low-end regular in center field.

Lowther is the kind of prospect who grows on you the more you watch him and once you see his Trackman readout. At first blush, he’s an unimpressive athlete who sits around 90 mph with his fastball, and throws from a lower slot that makes you wonder if he’s an obvious reliever. Sure, the curveball flashes plus and you’ve noticed he commands all of his pitches, which might enable an average changeup to be a successful third weapon. As you dig a little deeper, you notice that Lowther hides his arm behind his body for much of his delivery and that he has nearly seven feet of down-mound extension, which screws with hitters’ feel for timing his fastball and helps it play up.

Most scouts don’t like pitchers who work up in the strike zone, but there is a specific type who can make this work and we think Lowther is exactly that type. The formula is to get down the mound, throw from a lower release point, and have a fastball that “rises” — that’s rare to create from a low slot — and command it to parts of the zone where hitters are vulnerable; Lowther does all of these things. He has below-average velocity, but we think the fastball is a 55 pitch with these separators, and some scouts think his changeup plays up for the same reason. With all that in mind, you see Lowther in a different light: as a durable innings-eating starter with a long track record of success, three 55-to-60 grade pitches and command, along with the pitchability and deception qualities that help ensure he’ll still stick in a rotation if his raw stuff takes a step backward. Lowther turns 23 in April and likely starts the season in Double-A, but he may be one of the top five starters in the Orioles organization by midseason. He’s about as low risk of a pitching prospect as you’ll see among those who haven’t been above A-ball. We often under-rank these types, as there is sneaky No. 3 or 4 starter (55 FV) upside lurking beneath the surface.

Some international evaluators had a longer history of seeing Kremer than area scouts did, as Kremer spent his freshman and draft-eligible sophomore seasons at two different schools, but he’s been pitching for Israel’s national team since 2014. A dual citizen, Kremer was the first ever Israeli to have his name called during baseball’s draft. His stuff drastically improved once he began to be nurtured by the Dodgers’ player development machine, and Kremer K’d more hitters over 131 innings of work in 2018 than he did during his entire college career. His fastball has middling velocity but it’s lively, and Kremer’s arm slot is tough on righties. Both of his secondaries are capable of missing bats and while Kremer lacks pinpoint command, he throws enough strikes to start. Before he was part of the Manny Machado trade, Kremer projected as a No. 4 or 5 starter or multi-inning reliever. We think he’s best suited for the latter role, but given the rebuilding nature of the Orioles, he’ll likely begin his big league career as a starter.

Baltimore had originally planned on taking Hanifee, who grew up an Orioles fan, in the third round of the 2016 draft but instead took the surprisingly available Austin Hays. Hanifee was still on the board the next time Baltimore was on the clock and he signed for $500,000. A terrific on-mound athlete built like an NFL quarterback, Hanifee relies heavily on a sinking mid-90s fastball. The rest of his profile is pretty raw. He doesn’t have great natural feel for spin, and it probably behooves him and the Orioles to focus on changeup development if his mediocre strikeout rate is going to climb. But the sinker, and high-volume strike throwing ability, provide the foundation for an innings-eating backend starter at the least, and you can feel free to project heavily on much of the rest of Hanifee’s profile because of his prototypical frame and athleticism, though it’s becoming more evident that spin isn’t a teachable quality. There’s risk Hanifee is forced into the bullpen due to the lack of repertoire depth, but if his velo ticks up in max-effort, single-innings stints, he could be dominant. He should be developed as a starter to get reps with the change and refine the fastball command.

Hall left his family in Bermuda at age 12 to pursue high-level baseball in Canada. As an amateur prospect, he was on the radar pretty early; the Canadian Junior National Team plays a strong schedule that includes a spring training tilt against the Blue Jays, so they typically travel with their top underclassmen. Hall was a middle-round prospect for most scouts, who saw him as more of a second baseman and questioned his ability to hit, but still liked the plus speed and average raw power. Enthusiasts rounded up on the hitting skills because of his cold weather background. Baltimore popped Hall in the second round in 2017, but he didn’t play an extended run of regular season professional games until the summer of 2018.

Sources tell us he was excellent in the lightly-scouted extended spring training camp early in 2018, then struggled early in the New York-Penn League season as he had a red light on stealing bases and also on swinging in some counts. Later in that season, we’re told that Hall ignored that directive; he swiped 15 bases in August alone, then had a strong instructional league showing. Other clubs noticed and hoped they could snatch him in a minor trade during Baltimore’s regime change. He now looks more like a viable shortstop. He’s bigger and stronger, with a better sense of the strike zone and what kind of swing and approach works for him. We’ve moved him up pretty aggressively as there’s a story to his improvement that makes sense and he’s from a demographic that’s usually later to peak.

As an amateur at Cal, Cumberland was seen as an fringe-to-average bat with above average power, questionable catcher defense, and arm strength that may push him to first base. The Braves drafted him in the second compensation round for an overslot bonus, using the pick they bought from Baltimore in exchange for Brian Matusz‘s contract. Eventually, and ironically, Atlanta traded him to Baltimore as part of the multi-player return for Kevin Gausman and Darren O’Day’s contract. Since signing, Cumberland’s defense and pop times have improved, due in part to a slimmed-down physique and in part to improved throwing mechanics that make the most of his average arm strength. We think he’ll be able to catch regularly and also have enough of a bat to contribute at first base, DH, or as a pinch hitter. He’s moved down a bit for us since last season as his strong start and improved defense early in 2018 tailed off a bit later in the season, which is somewhat common for players who are dealing with physical change during the longest full-time catching spell of their career. Some scouts questioned Cumberland’s bat control and thus his hit tool and game power in late 2018 looks, so looks early in 2019 may tell us if this was a slight regression in tools, or just temporary fatigue he can get past. The likely upside looks like a valuable switch-hitting backup catcher whose bat you want to get in the lineup most days, which we value the same we would a low-end regular.

Stewart was a standout athlete at Bolles HS in Jacksonville, where he won five state titles in baseball and football. He then went to Florida State, where he put up monstrous, well-rounded numbers, but had questionable speed and defensive ability, a squatty frame, and a squatter batting stance. Baltimore took him late in the first round in 2015 and he didn’t perform as expected until a 2017 breakout and a successful big league cup of coffee late in 2018. Stewart has slowly come out of his signature crouch more and more, as nearly every scout projected he would need to as he faced better pitching. His arm strength has improved to be about average so he can play both corner outfield spots now, though he’s a 40 runner with a 45 glove at each, so first base and DH — or a platoon role — aren’t out of the question as he ages. The power and patience are still the calling cards here, with some question on the contact upside that makes him similar to Cumberland, ranked one spot higher on this list. The likely outcome for Stewart is a good multi-positional corner platoon bat, and he may get pushed to that role as soon as late 2019, with Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, and Austin Hays all lurking near the big leagues as better corner outfield fits with more offensive potential.

Encarnacion was a bit of an afterthought when he signed for a $10,000 bonus as a 18-year-old in 2015 and became the DSL Braves everyday shortstop. By that fall’s instructional league, the Braves realized they had a prospect on their hands and acted accordingly, pushing Encarnacion to Low-A at age 20 where he put up a 118 wRC+ as an age-appropriate prospect in a full-season league, just two years after he signed for almost nothing. The change was obvious: Encarnacion’s projection and actions turned into tools with physical development. He now shows 60 raw power in BP, above average arm strength and bat control, and average speed. Encarnacion still has some skills that require growth, as his plate approach is too aggressive to work at the upper levels. And while he has the physical tools to play third base, he’s error-prone. The raw tool package and quick-developing statistical performance are a rare combo, so Encarnacion and Cumberland headlined the Orioles’ return in the Kevin Gausman trade with Atlanta last summer. It’s not a stretch to say Encarnacion has the best tools of any Latin prospect in the Orioles’ lower minors, but that’s mostly because the Orioles have had a near non-existent international program and their three best international signees (Yusniel Diaz, Encarnacion, Jean Carmona) were all acquired from rival clubs last summer.

Teams had $1 million evaluations on Grenier when he was in high school, just about half a million shy of what it likely would have taken to sign him. He matriculated to Oregon State, where his abilities sufficed to push phenom Nick Madrigal over to second base. Indeed Grenier is the rare college player who scouts saw as capable of playing shortstop. He’s a plus-plus runner with a plus arm, and infield-worthy footwork and actions. Neither acrobatic nor sexy in any way, Grenier’s look as a defender, and his overall profile, has been compared to J.J. Hardy’s. Like Hardy, Grenier also has some power but his college swing likely needs to be altered for him to get to it in games. With player development now firmly ensconced in the era of swing changes, it seems reasonable to anticipate that Grenier will make some adjustments. The track record for college shortstops is not great, but Grenier has everyday tools.

Martin was a high profile athlete when he arrived on campus at Florida, and some scouts pegged him as the type who would go from a sub-$500,000 player in high school (basically, a talented lottery ticket) to a top two rounds guy in college, and that’s exactly what happened. Oakland took Martin in the first round when he was a plus runner with average raw power, had a good chance to stick at shortstop, and demonstrated surging contact skills. The more pessimistic projections about Martin’s bat ended up being more accurate — the speed, defense, and raw tools have held steady while he has struggled against pro pitching. In 2018, he repeated Double-A at age 23 and finally hit well, but now will jump two levels to the big leagues as the top pick in the Rule 5 Draft. Offensive expectations are low, in part because Martin has never been able to tap into his raw power in games, but also because he has needed to repeat levels to find success. That said, some clubs see these raw tools as rare even at the big league level and think there’s some low-end regular upside still here with the right coaching.

Pop didn’t start pitching until his junior year of high school, but he was quickly into the low-90s and the Blue Jays made a late-round run at him in 2014. He didn’t sign, and instead ended up in Kentucky’s bullpen, where his velocity climbed into the mid-90s. Late in April of his junior year, Pop had forearm issues that ended his college season and drove him down draft boards, but he’s been healthy and dominant in pro ball, and had a minuscule 0.33 ERA in the Cal League before he was sent to Baltimore in the Manny Machado trade. Though he’ll occasionally snap off a plus slider, a crackling, upper-90s two-seamer is Pop’s best pitch, and he milks it for all it’s worth, throwing it nearly 70% of the time. It has devastating armside run because of his lower slot, and it’s the driving force behind his absurd 68% ground ball rate. The delivery remains a cause for concern, but of all the obvious, relief-only prospects in this system, we think Pop has the best chance to turn into a high-leverage option.

Knight was an a draft eligible 21-year-old sophomore in 2017 when he starred for Arkansas, but he went in the late rounds when his high price tag didn’t match his upside on the mound, where he lacks a plus pitch. He performed about the same as a junior but had a little less leverage and opted to start his pro career when the Orioles took him in the third round. The main concern with Knight is his slight build, which makes many scouts hesitant to project him as a 180 inning starter. Everyone agrees that Knight is a performer who competes and throws four average to above pitches for strikes. He’ll hit 96 or 97 early in games then settle at 91-94 mph, relying mostly on a curveball that has a high spin rate but grades as a 55 for most scouts. Knight should perform well through the lower minors, so durability will be the main question until he hits the upper levels.

A big league ready middle relief piece, Carroll is the highest ranked prospect acquired from the Yankees in last year’s Zach Britton trade. He grew into what is now premium velocity pretty late, and was only throwing 88 in high school and 92-95 as a starter in college. Shortly after they drafted him, the Yankees moved Carroll to the bullpen and his velocity continued to climb into the upper-90s. Though he has tried several splitter grips, Carroll remains mostly a fastball/slider, single-inning reliever. He was briefly up last year and we’d be very surprised if he were list eligible next season.

Kline’s story is already one of perseverance. He and his fastball have hung around through multiple surgeries and two and a half years away from an affiliated mound. In 2014, he had something of a breakout and reached Double-A as 22-year-old starter. The following spring he felt elbow discomfort, had a PRP injection that didn’t work out, and finally had Tommy John in October. He missed all of 2016 rehabbing from TJ, then had two more surgeries in 2017 to remove scar tissue. When he finally pitched again in 2018, Kline was a 26-year-old Hi-A reliever. But he was throwing in the mid-to-upper-90s, his terse, upper-80s slider was flashing plus, and Baltimore saw fit to add him to the 40-man this offseason. Given his durability issues, the only real fit is in relief and he’s ready for a big league look.

Twitchy and lean, Sparks looked more comfortable during his initial foray into pro ball than was expected based on his high school track record. Suddenly this raw, developmental project had feel for contact, and became one of the more interesting prospects in this system. Then Sparks missed all of 2018 — except for some time during extended spring training — due to a torn labrum. Obviously it’s not ideal for any prospect lose an entire year of development, but it’s especially bad for a prospect of this ilk for whom in-game reps are important to his development and our understanding of his abilities. And because the injury was shoulder-related, it created uncertainty around one of Sparks’ louder tools, his arm. So while we know much less about Sparks than the typical second year pro, we know enough about his athleticism, defensive profile, and the speed with which he initially adjusted to pro ball to be intrigued.

Injuries have wreaked such havoc on Harvey’s career that his nine appearances in 2018 were the most he’s had in a single season since 2014. His career game log is freckled with clusters of two and three-inning rehab outings amid multiple shoulder and elbow ailments of varying severity. In 2018, Harvey injured his shoulder dodging a foul ball in the dugout, then was shut down in August with elbow discomfort as he tried to rehab back from the shoulder issue. Somehow, Harvey’s stuff is still excellent. His fastball/curveball pairing is standard late-inning fare and he’s likely to be fast tracked into a relief role immediately in the spring to give him a better shot at having big league success right away.

*Editor’s Note* The above paragraph initially indicated Harvey was out of options; he actually has two option years remaining. FanGraphs regrets the error. -EL

Tate’s stuff has never produced results commensurate with the visual evaluations of his pitches, especially his fastball. Though he has experienced fluctuations in velocity as a pro, even when his fastball is humming in at 93-96, it gets touched up. It has some sink but lives in a part of the strike zone that hitters seem able to handle. Tate still has the same quality breaking ball he had in college and he quickly developed a changeup in pro ball; we think he’ll need to pitch off of these very heavily in the big leagues because of his fastball’s limitations. That may be viable in a multi-inning relief role, but for now we have Tate projected as a No. 5 starter or multi-inning reliever.

There’s an epidemic of baseball personnel calling one another “coach” that is believed to be derived from the lexicon of Phillips’ signing area scout. That scout finds players, coach, as Phillips is another in a long line of Braves late-round steals at smaller colleges in the Carolinas. Atlanta traded him to Baltimore in the Kevin Gausman deal last summer, during Phillips’ breakout season. Before 2018, Phillips would sit in the mid-90s, reach 97, and mix in a solid average slider, but the off-speed consistency and command weren’t strong. Both of those things ticked up in 2018 at Triple-A, but regressed during Phillips’ 11.2 inning MLB debut. Like Cody Carroll, Phillips will look to put his late summer struggles with the new club behind him and reach his upside as a middle reliever in 2019.

Most talented junior college prospects end up either signing or transferring to a Division I program after a single year, but Dietz is the rare two-year JUCO prospect who stuck around for multiple seasons and still saw his draft stock soar. He’s a hulking 6-foot-5 with huge arm strength, but the rest of the profile has not progressed despite two and a half years of development as a starter. Even during starts, Dietz sits 94-97 and will touch 100. Heavy use of that pitch alone could make him a fine middle reliever, even if his slider is only average. Scouts are hesitant to project on Dietz’s secondaries because he’s a below-average athlete, but we’re curious about what the velo might do if he were just airing it out for an inning at a time.

Before he was included in the package that returned Manny Machado to Los Angeles, Bannon had a scintillating 89 games in the admittedly hitter-friendly Cal League, where he slashed .296/.402/.559 with 20 homers. His exaggerated open stance is reminiscent of a right-handed Odubel Herrera, and Bannon’s power is generated by a big leg kick and a low hand load that enables him to lift the ball (35% ground ball rate, well below league average) despite a flat-planed swing. He’s vulnerable up in the strike zone and has middling bat control because of all the effort in the swing, but there is pop here. Combine that with above average plate discipline and Bannon’s chance to stay on the infield, either at second or third base, and he’s at least an intriguing bench/platoon option based on eyeball scouting reports, and perhaps more if you really buy the on-paper production.

Baumann was dominant for a month and a half at Delmarva but his strikeout rate was sawed in half after he was promoted to Hi-A Frederick. A vertical arm slot creates a tough angle on Baumann’s fastball and vertical action on his breaking stuff. It also makes it hard for him to have east/west command, and a large portion of the industry has Baumann projected to the bullpen because of this. Dissenters believe his repertoire depth (four average pitches) fits at the back of a rotation.

Carmona had such a strong 2017 summer in the DSL that the Brewers sent him to the AZL for the season’s final few weeks, where he was instantly of interest to scouts. He had flashy actions at shortstop, above average bat speed, and he made hard contact through the 2017 fall instructional league despite a long, somewhat stiff swing. When Carmona arrived in Arizona the following spring, he had filled out quite a bit, and his already middling lateral range became a larger issue. He suddenly seemed more likely to end up at third base, though he could potentially be very good there. The Brewers pushed Carmona to the Pioneer League during the summer. He struggled there, and continued to after he was traded to Baltimore in the Jonathan Schoop deal. The bat is very much a work in progress and Carmona is a risk to trend down the defensive spectrum, but he has the physical talent to be an above-average defensive third baseman with some pop if all of his issues are remedied.

The Orioles are high on Rom, who was a late-rising projection and pitchability prep arm from Kentucky they took in the fourth round last summer. His velo was 89-92 in his better prep outings, but dipped back to his summer showcase mid-80s velocity in pro ball as a late and heavy prep workload caught up with him. Rom has room to add more weight and stabilize at that higher velocity, but his separator is a two-plane sluve (scouts differ on if it’s a slider or curve) that flashes plus along with above average feel for pitching and command projection.

Since his first round selection in 2014, Ortiz has bounced around to three orgs. He was part of the package Milwaukee acquired from Texas for Jonathan Lucroy, then part of the 2018 Jonathan Schoop trade with Baltimore. Layered between these trades have been several trips to the disabled list, including two consecutive seasons with time lost to hamstring issues. Ortiz has had injury issues every season dating back to his senior year of high school, and his fastball, which already plays down due to a lack of extension, was slower than usual during his brief big league debut with the Orioles last year. He profiles as a No. 5 starter, but we’ve rounded him down due to unavoidable concerns about his ability to stay healthy.

It sounds like only a small subset of teams were on Zebron before the draft, and those that were hoped he’d keep a low profile on Maryland’s inconspicuous Eastern Shore. But that’s Baltimore’s back yard, and the Orioles were able to draft and sign him for $125,000. Pro scouts were intrigued by what they saw from Zebron in the fall, who was up to 93 during instructs. He’s loose, semi-projectable, and can spin a breaking ball (his curveball averages 2750 rpm, so Trackman-influenced teams are probably interested, too) but is also very raw for a 19-year-old, and he may need to spend 2019 repeating the GCL. He’s a very interesting long-term developmental project who realistically may fit at the back of a rotation.