4/23 Update: It has come to our attention that in the switch to Statcast Fielding Runs Prevented (RAA), outfield positional adjustments were being improperly applied. This has now been corrected by zeroing out RAA for each individual position, on a seasonal basis, specifically for use in WAR. The tables below have been updated to include this correction.

Since we launched FanGraphs WAR in 2008, we have used various components of Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) such as Range, Outfield Arm, and Double Play Conversion to evaluate position player fielding. Today, we’re changing one of those components. Retroactive to the 2016 season, we have swapped out the Range component of UZR for the Statcast metric Fielding Runs Prevented, which is Outs Above Average (OAA) converted to runs above average. The UZR Outfield Arm and Double Play Conversion components of WAR remain unchanged.

We believe the additional data points available in Statcast, such as a fielder’s starting location, help to improve the measurement of a player’s range, especially in situations where players are shifted.

The vast majority of players’ new WAR calculations fall within a +/-1 WAR range of their previous WAR figures. Since 2016, there are 49 individual seasons that have changed by more than one win, and 14 players whose WAR has changed by more than three wins for the entire six year span starting in 2016. Read the rest of this entry »

For your amusement (and your amusement only), we’ve put together two on-pace leaderboards.

As some of the season totals you’ll see there will likely make obvious, these leaderboards are a good illustration of why it isn’t great to draw conclusions from small samples.

There are two varieties of on-pace leaderboards available:

• On-Pace Every Game Played (EGP) projects future playing time as if the player will play in every single remaining game this season. For pitchers, it projects starters to pitch every 4.5 days and relievers to pitch every 2.5 days. This is calculated proportional to their current season games started to games played ratio.
• On-Pace Games Played% (GP%) projects playing time as if the player will play in the same percentage of total future team games as they’ve already played in this season. For instance, if a player has played in five of their team’s 10 total games, we would project them to play in 76 future games.

Needless to say, neither of these attempts to project future playing time is any good, but that’s fine! These aren’t intended to be smart — they’re just dumb on-pace metrics that we should all know have no basis in reality at this point in the season.

If you are interested in forecasting what a player’s actual end of season stats might be, I suggest taking a look at either the Steamer (Update) or ZiPS (Update) projections. These projections add together a player’s existing stats and Rest of Season (RoS) projections for a much more realistic look at what a player’s end of season stats might actually be.

Enjoy!

The MLB Statcast fielding metric Outs Above Average (OAA) is now available on player pages in the “Advanced Fielding” section and on the leaderboards. We’ve also included the accompanying Fielding Runs Prevented metric (RAA), which is OAA converted to runs above average. Read the rest of this entry »

I’m sorry this has taken so long. I saw your tweets wondering where I was and when the next podcast would post, but I couldn’t say anything yet. When you go to work for a team, getting from agreeing to terms to actually starting involves dotting all sorts of I’s and crossing all sorts of T’s.

But now I can tell you that last week, I accepted a position with the Minnesota Twins. I’ll be serving as the team’s Special Assistant, Player Personnel; my streak of baseball titles that contain a comma continues. I will be providing individual player assessments, as well as broader process advice across the team’s international, pro, and amateur player evaluation groups. The role is similar to the one I had in Houston. I used to joke that I had the best job in the organization, only I wasn’t joking. I didn’t think I’d get to say that again while working for a team, but getting to know the front office group in Minnesota convinced me that it was time to step back into the fray. They’re an incredible group of people and I can’t wait to be a part of the organization.

I had plenty of discussions with other teams during my year-plus away from that side of the industry. I turned down some deeper talks and one out-of-the-blue job offer, but it just never felt right. Maybe it was me, maybe it was them, maybe it wasn’t the time. Quite frankly, I was at peace with never working for a team again. That’s not even the right phrase. I was exceptionally happy working at FanGraphs, and as excited as I am to be joining the Twins, it comes with some bittersweet feelings regarding my exit from this wonderful place. Read the rest of this entry »

The FanGraphs 2022 Playoff Odds, which take into account the new 12-team playoff structure, are now available on the site. With the new structure, we want to highlight the following columns:

• Win Div – The probability the team wins their division
• Clinch Bye – The probability that the team wins their division and is one of the top two seeds in their league, thus earning a Wild Card Series bye
• Clinch Wild Card – The probability the team qualifies for the playoffs through a Wild Card berth
• Make Playoffs – The sum of Win Div + Clinch Wild Card, indicating the probability that the team qualifies for the playoff in any capacity
• Make LDS (Postseason section) – The probability the team wins the Wild Card Series or earns a bye.

Read the rest of this entry »

Weather data is now available on the FanGraphs Splits Leaderboards.

You can filter any data since 2010 by temperature, barometric pressure, elevation, wind speed, wind direction, and air density. To make the weather data more useful, you can also filter on the specific ballpark, roof type, and the roof open/closed status.

Read the rest of this entry »

Here we are again. Just two years after a global pandemic led to the cancellation of part of spring training and a delayed Opening Day, the lockout has resulted in the loss of more baseball.

This time around, there are no PPP loans to help soften the blow. FanGraphs is in slightly better financial shape than we were in 2020 due to all of our Member support, but that doesn’t change the fact that the lockout is already starting to put the site at risk. Lost revenue is lost revenue, and the longer this goes on, the worse shape we’ll be in. It took us all of last year to climb out of the financial hole the pandemic put us in, and now we’re being dragged back into that uncertainty. Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs Members (both regular and Ad-Free) are now able to toggle between displaying and hiding the article photos that are part of our newly redesigned homepage.

After receiving feedback that some users did not want to see photos on the home page, we created a photo option in the user menu similar to the theme option that allows you to choose dark mode.

To choose between the two options for photos on the index page:

• Go to the home page. Members will see a new option in their user menu below the theme option.
• Click on the “Index Photos” option. This will allow you to toggle between showing the photos and hiding them.

Just like with dark mode, the index photo option is set on a browser-level. Once set, the option will be retained until you sign out of the browser or clear browsing data. It also has to be set on different devices and browsers. On a technical level, it works the same way as dark mode, except the option is only visible on the index page.

As always, please let us know in the comments if you have any issues.

Here’s your chance to vote for the 2022 SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards winners.

The SABR Analytics Conference Research Awards will recognize baseball researchers who have completed the best work of original analysis or commentary during the preceding calendar year. Nominations were solicited by representatives from SABR, Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and the Internet Baseball Writers Association of America.

To read any of the finalists, click on the link below. Scroll down to cast your vote.

Contemporary Baseball Analysis

• Rob Arthur, “Better Defense Is Costing MLB Thousands of Hits,” Baseball Prospectus, June 4, 2021.
• Ben Clemens, “Goldilocks and the Three Bunts,” FanGraphs, June 7, 2021.
• Karen Gallagher, Scott N. Brooks, Ra Lofton, Luke Brenneman, Field Studies: MLB Manager Hiring Criteria and Career Pathways from 2010-19. Global Sport Matters, October 5, 2021.
• Cameron Grove, “Some Games are Harder to Umpire Than Others,” Baseball Prospectus, September 17, 2021.
• Eno Sarris, “What is ‘seam-shifted wake’ and which pitchers benefit most from it?,” The Athletic, January 21, 2021.

Contemporary Baseball Commentary

• Michael Ajeto, “Major League Baseball Has an Assimilation Problem,” Baseball Prospectus, October 22, 2021.
• Stephanie Apstein and Alex Prewitt, “This Should Be the Biggest Scandal in Sports,” Sports Illustrated, June 4, 2021.
• Brittany Ghiroli, “Cockroaches, car camping, poverty wages: Why are minor-leaguers living in squalor?,” The Athletic, August 5, 2021.
• Craig Goldstein and Patrick Dubuque, “We Need a Restrictor Plate for Pitching,” Baseball Prospectus, May 25, 2021.
• Robert O’Connell, “Minor League Baseball is Designed to Exploit,” Defector, September 8, 2021.

Historical Baseball Analysis/Commentary

• Bruce Allardice, “Runs, Runs, and More Runs: Pre-Professional Baseball, By the Numbers,” SABR Baseball Research Journal, Fall 2021.
• Emma Baccellieri, “Deadening the Baseball? MLB’s Done It Before,” Sports Illustrated, February 9, 2021.
• RJ McDaniel, “Baseball on the Radio, 100 Years Later,” FanGraphs, March 10, 2021.
• Lou Moore, “Major League Baseball Had a Chance to Stop the Drain of Black Players From Baseball. It Didn’t.” Global Sport Matters, October 6, 2021.
• Andrea Williams, “ ‘We Have No Right to Destroy Them’,” New York Times, April 14, 2021.

Voting will be open through 11:59 p.m. MST on Friday, February 11, 2022.

Create your own user feedback survey

Mobile or Safari users, click here to access the survey

Results will be announced and presented at the SABR Virtual Analytics Conference, March 17-20, 2022. Learn more or register for the conference at SABR.org/analytics.

You might have noticed that we updated the main home page to reflect some of the changes we recently made on the RotoGraphs landing page and the new blog roll.

We cleaned up the design, added more photos, and reorganized our content. The left column will primarily contain editorial content, while the right column will have more evergreen site features. Our aim is to make FanGraphs more inviting and discoverable to new users, while simplifying and streamlining the experience for our current users. Almost all of the content from the old home page has been retained with the new home page. We also expanded the most popular article section (which is determined by pageviews) to include more articles and RotoGraphs content.

If you have any questions or comments, or if anything is broken, please let us know in the comments. Please include what device, browser, and operating system you are using in order to help us figure out any issues. Thank you!