Brett Hanewich opened a lot of eyes last year in his first full professional season. Thanks largely to a take-notice fastball, the 24-year-old right-hander logged a 2.61 ERA, and fanned 74 batters in 69 relief innings, between Low-A Burlington and Hi-A Inland Empire. The Los Angeles Angels took Hanewich in the ninth round of the 2017 draft out of Stanford University, where he graduated with an engineering degree.
Command is his biggest question mark. Hanewich issued six free passes every nine innings last season, and his walk rate as a collegian wasn’t anything to write home about either. A max-effort delivery is part of the reason, and therein lies a conundrum. Hanewich believes that his delivery — a byproduct of a summer spent with a former Cy Young Award winner — is partially responsible for his plus velocity.
———
Hanewich on his heater: “I have a heavy fastball. That’s what everybody who catches me calls it. It feels like a bowling ball as opposed to, say, a Whiffle ball. I think it has to do with spin rate. My spin rate is anywhere between 2,300 and 2,400, which is above major league average.
“Another thing that makes my fastball different is my motion. I get very good extension. It’s somewhere between seven and eight feet, which is way above average. The way I throw, the ball jumps on the hitter — there’s more life to it because of the extension. The plate is sixty feet six inches from the mound, so a pitcher with a six-foot extension is throwing 54 feet six inches from where the ball is being released. There’s a thing called perceived velocity. The ball looks like it’s coming in faster than what it actually is. My perceived velocity is a plus, and the fact that I throw hard to begin with is obviously a factor as well. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Los Angeles Angels. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Ballard HS (KY) (LAA)
Age
19.9
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
215
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/50
70/70
50/70
60/55
50/55
50/50
Adell played across three levels last year and reached Double-A at age 19. The swing and miss issues he exhibited in high school led many to assume his development might be slow, but after a month of vaporizing Low-A pitching at Burlington, he was quickly sent to the Cal League, where he’d spend most of the year. At Inland Empire, Adell continued to perform, and the Angels pushed him to Double-A Mobile in August, where he was finally forced to deal with some adversity, and struck out 31% of the time.
Several prospects of recent memory (Byron Buxton, Domonic Brown, and Brandon Wood to name a few) have possessed such titanic physical gifts that they essentially weren’t challenged until they reached the big leagues, and some people in baseball posit that it can be psychologically taxing to deal with growing pains in that bright of a spotlight, with the hopes of a franchise and its fans on one’s shoulders. Adell is that kind of physical talent. He has a rare blend of power and speed, speed that he has retained since high school even though he has added about 20 pounds. He’s now a better bet to stay in center field during his prime than he was in high school, when scouts assumed he’d slow down as he added weight. His feel for going back on balls in center is pretty good and some of the arm strength that Adell (who was once into the mid-90s on the mound) suddenly lost in high school has returned.
His breaking ball recognition and bat control will continue to be tested by upper-level pitching, and if they start to show improvement, it’s not only a sign that Adell is adjusting but that he has the capacity to do so in the future. At that point, we’re talking prime Andrew McCutchen and Grady Sizemore-type tools.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (LAA)
Age
21.1
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/50
55/55
50/60
45/55
92-94 / 95
Squat little pitching prospects aren’t supposed to suddenly throw three ticks harder than they did the year before, but Suarez went from sitting 89-92 to sitting 92-94, and rose three levels last year. The feel Suarez developed for his changeup and curveball while he had a 40 fastball was necessary for his survival at that time. Now, they’re out pitches after he gets ahead of hitters with this new heat. There’s some risk that this fastball backs up, as upticks in velocity are sometimes fleeting and pitchers soon return to what they’ve been for most of their careers. So long as that doesn’t happen, Suarez projects as a good fourth starter and should help the big league club this year.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Buford HS (GA) (LAA)
Age
21.2
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
L / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
35/55
55/60
40/50
60/55
40/50
60/60
A two-sport star in high school, Marsh’s pro baseball career was in doubt for a moment when the Angels discovered a stress fracture in his back during his physical after the draft. After the issue was resolved, Marsh took things slow for a while at the Angels complex in Tempe, limited to activities like BP while others played in actual games. The sound of the ball off his bat during those BP side sessions was very distracting. Marsh stayed in Arizona during the spring of 2017 and was much more physical than most of his rookie-level peers. Marsh had statistical success in the Pioneer League and in the Midwest League the following spring, before finally scuffling at Hi-A.
Though he has above-average raw power, Marsh’s in-game cut is more contact-oriented, geared for contact to the opposite field and back up the middle. During instructional league, Marsh was awkwardly swinging without a stride, likely not a swing change, but perhaps an exercise that forces him to clear his hips and improve his ability to pull the ball with power. There’s a non-zero chance Marsh stays in center field but it’s more likely that he moves to a corner. He has the physical ability to profile as a regular there.
Canning was used very heavily at UCLA and would sometimes throw in excess of 120 pitches during his starts, even as an underclassman. The Angels shelved him for the rest of the summer after they drafted him, and it paid off. Canning came out the following spring throwing harder than he had in college, his fastball sitting 94-97 for most of his starts. He held that velo throughout 2018 and reached Triple-A in his first pro season. He’s a No. 4 starter on the cusp of debut.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2015 from Wesleyan HS (GA) (LAA)
Age
21.6
Height
5′ 11″
Weight
210
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
40/55
50/50
40/45
60/60
40/45
45/45
The Angels invited Jones to big league camp last spring, but he looked overmatched and a bit lost in center field, so he was sent back to minor league camp to begin a transition to second base. His footwork and actions around the bag can be clumsy (part of why Jones, who played some infield in high school, was initially put in the outfield as a pro), but he has plenty of lateral quickness and range, his hands are fine, and he has high-end makeup, which leads clubs to believe he’ll do the work necessary to be viable there. Mostly though, Jones is good because he makes lots of hard, line drive contact and is a plus runner. After struggling to lay off of breaking balls early in 2017, he has become more patient, and his walk rate was much higher last year. Even though he didn’t hit for much power in the Cal League, the Angels promoted him to Double-A for the last two months of the season, then gave him some run in the Arizona Fall League.
Jones’ general lack of performance last year should not yet concern readers, as he went through several swing changes, with the Angels constantly tweaking how and where his hands set up. He projects as a high-contact second baseman with doubles power unless one of these tweaks unlocks more in-game pop.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Green Hope HS (NC) (LAA)
Age
19.4
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/50
50/60
20/50
80/80
45/60
45/50
Adams was seen as a football-first prospect until late March 2018. He’d played at a couple of showcase events in the summer of 2017 and had some raw tools, but he wasn’t yet under consideration for the top few rounds of the baseball draft. He was, however, a top 100 football recruit, set to head to North Carolina to play wide receiver, where his father was on the coaching staff. Then in March, Adams had a coming out party at the heavily-scouted NHSI tournament near his high school, fulfilling the rosiest hopes some had of him eventually putting it together on the baseball field, as multiple scouts from all 30 teams watched him against strong competition for a few days. Scouts were hesitant at first, worried they might be overreacting, but eventually came to think that Adams’ only athletic peer in recent draft history was Byron Buxton.
Adams is a true 80 runner with raw power who projects to be a 60, and who flashed body and bat control that reminded scouts of Royce Lewis. All of this excitement came with almost zero track record, and Adams didn’t face much strong competition after NHSI, meaning drafting him would be based purely on old-school scouting, as there weren’t years of video of and performance from this flourishing incarnation of Adams. Once teams became enthused enough that multiple millions of dollars were in play, it appeared clear that baseball could overtake football. Several GMs, including the Angels’ GM Billy Eppler, were in after NHSI to see Adams for themselves, and after Adell and Adams were their top pick in consecutive years, rival executives now view this risk/upside kind of prospect as Los Angeles’ type. That trend appears to be more the result of opportunistic good fortune than a deliberate strategy, since there’s an argument to be made that Austin Beck (who went to Oakland sixth overall in 2017) had less upside and a similar performance record to Adams; if the industry had simply seen Adams play in an NHSI-style setting for a couple more weeks, he could have been a top five pick candidate, just like Royce Lewis or Byron Buxton were after a strong summer of performance. This is all to say that the sky is the limit for Adams, and if he performs well in Low-A in 2019, he’ll shoot up this list.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (SEA)
Age
22.0
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
165
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
50/55
45/45
40/45
55/55
45/50
50/50
The Mariners traded Rengifo to Tampa Bay in an August 2017 waiver deal, and he only played in 23 games as a Rays farmhand before he was sent to Anaheim as the PTBNL in the C.J. Cron swap. He had a breakout 2018, traversing three levels to the tune of a .299/.399/.451 line, while tallying as many walks as strikeouts, 50 extra-base hits, and 41 steals. So judicious is Rengifo’s eye for the plate that if he were cloned 15 times and each clone forced to be an umpire, there might be a lot less talk of electronic strike zones. He identifies balls and strikes early in flight, and often relaxes before balls have even entered the catcher’s mitt. There’s a chance that Rengifo’s lack of power (he has more from the right side) limits the way his eye for the zone plays in the big leagues, since pitchers will be more likely to attack him without fear of him doing damage on his own. Most of his doubles come by slashing balls down either baseline, or when he turns gappers into extra bases because of his speed. We think there’s enough bat to retain most of the on-base ability Rengifo has shown so far and that, combined with his multi-positional versatility, could yield super-utility value.
Though he spent all of last year playing either second base or shortstop, Rengifo also has experience in both outfield corners and at third base. The Angels added Rengifo to the 40-man this offseason and while they’re well-stocked on the infield (Simmons, La Stella, Fletcher, Cozart), they’re rather thin in the outfield, and very right-handed. As such, Rengifo’s first opportunity could come as an injury replacement out there, or he may fall into a Chone Figginsy utility role. Eventually though, he may end up as the regular second baseman.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from St. Luke’s Episcopal HS (AL) (LAA)
Age
18.9
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
25/55
50/55
20/50
55/55
40/50
55/55
Progressive clubs want to draft toolsy prep players, as that is the most common demographic among current All-Stars, but they like to have data to back up their scouting reports. Collecting detailed stats from summer showcase events, or even spring games when prep hitters face pro-quality pitching, is one way to pinpoint how advanced a prospect is beyond a pure scouting report, and is something almost no clubs did systematically until the last half dozen years or so. Jackson is a perfect example of the limitations of this practice.
He stood out on the showcase circuit with an infielder’s footwork and actions (though his hands were inconsistent) and potentially above-average offense. But Jackson’s performance was generally below average in this setting and he struck out a lot, so he was shifted into the fourth to fifth round area that often sends this sort of player to college. In the spring, Jackson was going off against poor competition in South Alabama and we were hesitant to shift his grade on that basis until we were told that he got glasses to correct some vision issues that had contributed to his summer disappointment. Now, his spring performance could still end up meaning little, but there was a shot he was a new prospect, and we never got a pre-draft opportunity to see him against good pitching. With that optimism in mind, we ranked him 31st in the 2018 draft class but the Angels were able to get him at 57th overall, as many clubs now run their draft off of models that lean heavily on summer performance when there’s bulk and Jackson was at almost every event.
Jackson hit seven homers with above average production across the board in 43 pro games after signing, and it’s looking like he may have been underrated by a purely numbers-based approach to the draft. We see a potential 50 or 55 on every tool and at least a third base fit in pro ball, if not a chance to play middle infield, which translates to a strong regular.
Thaiss is one for whom a 2018 swing change is more relevant because a lack of in-game power was the primary barrier between him and the offensive output approaching that which typically profiles at first base. A college catcher, Thaiss walked more than twice as much as he struck out as a junior at Virginia. Though almost nobody thought he’d be able to catch in pro ball, he was viewed as a safe, fast-moving draft prospect, albeit one with a limited ceiling due to defensive limitations. Thaiss was exactly as advertised for the first two years of his pro career, and reached Double-A during his first full pro season though, as predicted, he hit for very little power, including a paltry .399 SLG% in the offensive paradise that is the Cal League.
In 2018, Thaiss added a more exaggerated leg kick and began lifting the ball more. A 45% ground ball rate at Double-A in 2017 turned into a 31% rate at Mobile the following year. He was eventually promoted to Triple-A Salt Lake and ended up with more 2018 homers (16) than he had had in his previous two years combined. Will the change be enough? It’s going to be close. Thaiss posted a 102 wRC+ in 85 games as a 23-year-old at Triple-A; the big league average at first base last year was 105. We have him projected as a low-end regular there, which might make him a viable alternative to Justin Bour and Albert Pujols fairly soon.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age
20.3
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
168
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
55/60
50/55
30/50
40/50
92-96 / 98
Soriano struggled to harness his newfound velocity in 2018. The year before, he was a skinny 18-year-old sitting just 87-92. When he arrived in the spring of 2018, he had added sculpted muscle mass to a prototypical frame, and his fastball was humming in at 94-97 early during spring outings. After some time in extended spring training, Soriano spent the end of last summer in Low-A as a 19-year-old, and had issues with walks. Though his delivery is devoid of violence, he struggles with release consistency and has scattershot fastball control as a result. Soriano’s feel for locating his terrific curveball is often superior to his fastball command, and while this approach is becoming more acceptable in the majors, ideally he’d refine the latter.
It’s odd to look at Soriano’s numbers and argue that he took a step forward last year, but he accomplished a third of the things we hoped he’d develop — more velocity, better command, and a better changeup or some other third offering — before turning 20. If either of the last two components fails to progress, Soriano will end up in the bullpen. If they both do, he’ll be a mid-rotation starter.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2016 from Monsignor Pace HS (FL) (LAA)
Age
20.6
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
185
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
60/60
55/55
40/50
50/55
40/50
93-96 / 97
A stress reaction in his back cost Rodriguez all of 2018 and his return to action has been slow; last we were updated before publication, he was still limited to fastball-only bullpens and flat ground sessions. Prior to Rodriguez’s shutdown, he had experienced a velo spike (93-97, up from 91-94 the year before) and lowered his arm slot. Both of his breaking balls were excellent, but his changeup had regressed a bit compared to his first year (or at least, he lacked feel for it the last time Eric saw him). The injury adds fuel to the speculative fire that Rodriguez’s violent delivery will eventually limit him to the bullpen. It didn’t prohibit him from having starter control, but scouts were concerned about injury. Now, there has been one. If health eventually moves Rodriguez to the bullpen, he has high-leverage stuff. If not, and his changeup returns, he could be a No. 3 or 4 starter.
Knowles was still just 16 when he came stateside for his first pro instructional league. He was 17 for the entirety of his first pro season, and one of the few bright spots on an underperforming AZL Angels team. A sizable chunk of Knowles’ AZL power output was BABIP-driven (his speed is especially meaningful against rookie-level defenses), but despite his measureables, he does have some pop thanks to his explosiveness and ability to rotate, enough that there’s little concern about him lacking big league physicality. His footspeed enables projection in center field and while he’s had early-career issues with strikeouts, he’s not one to expand the zone and instead has the bat-control issues that are typical of early-career switch hitters. Though his bat-to-ball future is cloudy, Knowles’ slashing, doubles power as a teen combined with the likelihood he can play center field give him a shot to be an everyday player if he develops as a hitter. If not, he’d be a pretty toolsy fourth outfielder.
After an exciting showing during minor league spring training, Deveaux struggled throughout the summer as he made swing change after swing change after swing change. It makes much more sense to tinker and find the right swing sooner rather than later, but Deveaux hit just .199 as he was asked to bring his side work onto the field during the summer. He had no fewer than four different cuts during 2018, and at times seemed so out of whack that pro scouts in Arizona began to actively steer clear of Tempe Diablo to avoid falling out of love with a player they were so enamored with during the spring. That player took your breath away when he’d hit his stride going from first to third, looked like he might be a black hole defender in center field because of his range, and was going to have power once the swing was refined.
If evaluating purely on physical ability, Deveaux belongs up near Jordyn Adams and Jeremiah Jackson in this system, but his 2018 was a bit of a red flag and he’s probably going to be a long-term developmental project.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2012 from Providence HS (NC) (BOS)
Age
25.9
Height
6′ 6″
Weight
230
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
70/70
55/55
60/60
45/45
94-98 / 101
Somewhat surprisingly, our pitch classifications indicate Buttrey threw his low-spin breaking ball more often than his obviously nasty changeup in a sizable big league sample last year. Buttrey’s weirdo breaking ball, which can be hard to distinguish visually from his changeup, is also effective and may give him a pitch mix sufficient to enable him to close. His stuff exploded after the Red Sox moved him to the bullpen in 2016; they eventually traded him in the 2018 Ian Kinsler deal. He’ll likely be a significant part of the Angels’ bullpen this season and may have too tight a grip on late-inning duties to relinquish them to Keynan Middleton once the latter returns from Tommy John.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (ATL)
Age
19.0
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
25/45
55/60
30/45
40/40
40/50
60/65
Maitan was one of the most celebrated international amateur prospects in a decade and was even written up as a 14-year-old on this site when, upon asking international scouts in the fall of 2014 for the best players in the 2015 international class, we were told that Maitan, a 2016-eligible player, was better than all of them. In retrospect that looks a little silly, as the 2015 class included Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Juan Soto, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Cristian Pache, and Andres Gimenez, but that opinion was the consensus amongst many top evaluators; those five superior prospects all received lower bonuses than Maitan for a reason.
Maitan signed with Atlanta as the clear top prospect in his class, and the clear top prospect to emerge in many years. Then things took a turn for him as a pro. Maitan added some natural strength and bulk soon after signing (which many scouts anticipated, projecting him to a corner), then started adding some bad weight, lost his swing mechanics, and started tinkering. Things snowballed from there, ending in a disappointing debut season with Atlanta. After that season, the Braves international scandal hit, and Maitan became a free agent. He kept his original $4.25 million bonus (widely reported to have been topped by multiple clubs late in the process, though he and his family chose to honor their word to Atlanta) and hit the open market, where he received $2.2 million amid some scouts’ suggestions that he wasn’t even the best of the Braves’ prospects to be cut loose.
The same issues continued with Los Angeles in 2018, and Maitan had another disappointing season, with a worrisome physique and an evolving swing. The raw tools that originally got scouts interested — raw power you can project to a 70, a 65-grade arm, infield hands, feel to hit — still appear to be in there and Angels sources indicate Maitan spent the offseason getting in better shape, a process they anticipated would be slow from the onset, hopefully foreshadowing a breakout year. The organization is excited about what could happen in 2019, with Maitan as part of an exciting Low-A Burlington club that should include him, Jeremiah Jackson, and Livan Soto in the infield and Jordyn Adams, D’Shawn Knowles, and Trent Deveaux in the outfield. We have Maitan here on pedigree, as pro socuts outside the org who had no context for their eval barely considered him a prospect last year.
Drafted: 11th Round, 2015 from Mission Viejo HS (CA) (HOU)
Age
22.4
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/50
50/55
55/60
40/50
40/45
88-92 / 94
An 11th rounder in 2015, Houston signed Sandoval away from a USC commitment with a $900,000 bonus. Before the Angels acquired him from the Astros for Martin Maldonado, Sandoval struck out 97 hitters in 88 innings split between Low- and Hi-A while also reducing his walk rate (4.3%) to half of what it had been the previous year (8.5%). After the trade, his walk rate regressed to his career norm, but he continued missing bats and struck out 35% of opposing hitters.
Sandoval’s fastball sits 88-92 and will top out around 94. He can really spin a 12-6 curveball, one that’s above average when he is getting on top of it. Effectively, Sandoval has an almost perfectly vertical arm slot, but the way he gets there is somewhat odd, and there’s some skepticism among scouts as to the sustainability of last year’s uptick in strike-throwing. But his current delivery enables him to effectively work up and down with his fastball and curveball in sequence, so nobody suggests he change it. There’s enough of a changeup here for continued development in a rotation and if everything clicks, Sandoval will be a No. 4 or 5 starter. If not, he’s a lefty with a good breaking ball and is a fine bullpen candidate, which is a pretty good return for a backup catching rental.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Venezuela (LAA)
Age
21.4
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
150
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
35/50
35/40
20/30
70/70
45/50
50/50
It’s very possible that Rivas’s elite feel for the strike zone won’t translate to upper-level play. He owns a 16% career walk rate, but Rivas and his childlike, Lilliputian frame lacks even a modicum of over-the-fence power, and advanced pitching may choose to attack him rather than nibble and let the speedy Rivas reach without putting the ball in play. Even if his walk rate comes down, Rivas does enough other stuff to contribute to a big league roster. He won’t hit homers, but he stings high-quality line drive contact to all-fields and can slash doubles down the third base line. He has sufficient speed and range for the middle infield, and has experience at every position but first base and catcher, though he hasn’t played the outfield since 2015. Rivas’ most realistic path to everyday production involves him retaining something close to his current walk rate, but he’s more likely to become a valuable utility man who can play all over the field, and is a fairly high-probability prospect in that regard.
Drafted: 28th Round, 2013 from Ottawa HS (IL) (LAA)
Age
24.1
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
40/45
50/50
40/45
65/65
50/55
50/50
It took a $100,000 bonus to sign Hermosillo away from a football scholarship to Illinois. Understandably raw when he entered pro ball (what with two-sports and a cold-weather background), it took Hermosillo three years of adjustments before he finally experienced a statistical breakout in 2016. Since then, he has continued to make mechanical tweaks to reshape his skillset, and was rewarded with a brief major league debut in 2018.
Once in possession of ugly bat control that enabled him to put lots of balls in play but not with any real impact, Hermosillo’s most recent swing adjustment has him trading some of that contact for power. As Hermosillo’s leg kick grew bigger and slower, his ground ball rate shrunk. A 45% roller ratio in 2017 became 31% in 2018, and Hermosillo set a career-high in homers (12) in the friendly confines of the PCL. Though he didn’t perform during a 30-game big league look, Hermosillo’s athleticism and ability to make adjustments bode well for his future. His baseball instincts aren’t great, but he has some pop that he’s started to get to, he can fly, and he may get lots of playing time due to the Angels’ fairly thin outfield situation. Realistically, he projects as a good bench outfielder, but he has several late-bloomer traits and may continue to develop into a low-end regular if he falls into regular big league reps and gets sufficient at-bats.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Venezuela (ATL)
Age
18.7
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
160
Bat / Thr
L / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
25/55
35/40
20/30
55/55
50/55
50/50
Soto was part of the Braves’ 2016 pool-busting haul of players who later became free agents due to the sanctions levied against Atlanta. Soto got a $1 million bonus the first time around, then another $850,000 from Los Angeles, signing along with fellow former-Brave and Venezuelan Kevin Maitan. It’s a cliche in scouting to call a player a ‘Venezuelan-style shortstop,’ but Soto fits that to a T: smaller, without big tools, but with an advanced feel to play, and a gritty, high-effort style. He had about 30-grade raw power when he signed, and his exit velos were topping out in the mid-90s in the GCL for Atlanta, but he’s now hitting a quarter of his balls in play in the 90s and looks like he’ll be able to avoid being so weak that pitchers can knock the bat out of his hands. Soto is a roughly average runner with a roughly average arm, but both tools play up due to his instincts and strong internal clock, so he’s a potential above average shortstop. He also has advanced feel to hit, with above average bat control and a self-aware approach at the plate. There’s a road to a Jose Iglesias-type regular here, but it’s more likely Soto lands in the utility range, with maybe a season or two where he’s starting quality.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Venezuela (ARI)
Age
21.9
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
45/50
55/60
45/50
50/55
50/55
89-94 / 96
In possession of one of the looser, more aqueous deliveries in the minors, Madero experienced a velocity spike in 2018 and ended up on the Angels 40-man in November. Instead of 87-92, Madero’s fastball resided in the 90-94 range throughout 2018, and he retained his trademark advanced command of four pitches. The best of those pitches is his curveball, which flashes big depth and snap, and which he sometimes decelerates his arm to baby into the strike zone, something big league hitters will pick up on. Further changeup develop will be important for Madero as his low arm slot enables lefty hitters to see the ball out of his hand quite early. A better change will help keep them honest against his heater. Still lithe and skinny for his age, there’s a chance Madero grows into some velo as he continues to fill out. He profiles as a fifth starter and may be up at some point this year, though the Angels’ many veteran pitching additions make it less likely.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age
19.7
Height
6′ 6″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/60
50/55
50/60
40/50
87-93 / 96
Aquino missed all of 2018 due to a February Tommy John from which he’ll likely return sometime during extended spring training. Tall and projectable, Aquino was already touching 96 as an 18-year-old before he blew out his UCL. He’s athletic for his size but perhaps not exceptionally athletic in a vacuum, his forearms appear shorter than is typical for someone his size, and his stride home is very abbreviated. His velocity and changeup quality were both well ahead of what is typical for a pitcher this age before Aquino got hurt, and he has one of the more intriguing ceilings in the system if those things return after surgery.
22. Aaron Hernandez, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Texas A&M Corpus Christi (LAA)
Age
22.2
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
50/50
45/55
40/50
35/45
91-95 / 97
One of the least experienced and more polarizing college pitchers available in the 2018 draft, Hernandez has an electric, four-pitch mix and several developmental hurdles ahead of him. At a skinny 6-foot-1, there are scouts who doubt he can start based solely on his frame, though Hernandez held mid-90s velocity deep into games as a junior at Corpus Christi. If amateur scouts are to be believed, any of the following aspects of Hernandez’s current profile could change: his stride direction, his arm slot, his breaking ball usage (he has two that bleed together), and the movement profile of his fastball.
Hernandez was academically ineligible as a sophomore and only started 19 games in three years of college, so there’s at least a reason he’s behind his peers from a developmental standpoint. He has unteachable arm speed and feel for spin and even if he just ends up as a big league reliever, something that seems pretty reasonable given his talent, it would be a strong outcome for a third round pick. Like Aquino, Hernandez may move up this list quickly with refinement, but we’d like to see it fairly soon given his age.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2018 from Detroit Western Int’l HS (MI) (LAA)
Age
18.2
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
185
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/40
45/55
20/50
55/50
40/50
70/70
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
45/55
40/50
45/55
30/50
87-91 / 93
Many teams considered English to be one of, if not the best on-mound athletes among high schoolers in the 2018 draft, but many of them also thought he was sushi raw as both a hurler and an outfielder, and that he would end up at the University of Tennessee. A $700,000 bonus brought him to Tempe for a summer free of pitching in games, an approach the Angels have taken with several recent draftees. English did hit, though. While he struggled to perform on paper, he has a pro-quality power and speed combination that enabled him to play center field in high school. He was drafted and will be developed as a two-way player, likely pitching once a week while playing in the outfield once or twice a week and DH’ing the rest of the time as a way to manage fatigue. He arrived for camp having added about 25 pounds of muscle and is one of the more interesting prospects in baseball, let alone in this system, because he’s just a very athletic, untouched mass of clay for Angels player development to sculpt.
Drafted: 20th Round, 2016 from Mississippi State (LAA)
Age
24.3
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
45/50
50/50
30/35
45/40
50/55
50/50
Kruger is a high-probability backup catching prospect with more speed and athleticism than is typical for the position. Though he has a power-hitter’s leg kick, his bat head drags into the zone, causing him to push a lot of contact the other way, and this, combined with his fringy bat speed, limits his power output. He has good barrel control, though, and is a solid-average receiver and ball-blocker with an average arm. He’s going to stay back there, and he’s uncommonly nimble and lean for a catcher, so he should retain those skills deep into his career. He reached Double-A last year and is on pace to debut in 2020.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2014 from Northeast Oklahoma JC (OK) (LAA)
Age
25.8
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
60/60
40/40
40/45
94-97 / 98
After yo-yoing back and forth between the bullpen and rotation since college, Jewell was finally ‘penned in 2018 and had a two-inning sip of coffee with the Halos last June before he fractured his right fibula during a play at the plate. He would need season-ending surgery. Jewell’s command has long foreshadowed an eventual permanent move to the bullpen, but he has the stuff to accrue big league outs. He can alter the shape of his mid-90s fastball to sink or cut, has a fine mid-80s curveball, and a power changeup that averages 90mph. He didn’t throw his hard cutter/slider during his short appearances with the Angels last year, but we’re unsure if the pitch has actually be scrapped. It’s an unusually deep repertoire for a reliever, probably one better suited for inducing ground balls than strikeouts, but is possibly enough for Jewell to go for four or more outs at a time.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from New Mexico State (LAA)
Age
22.5
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
45/55
50/55
55/60
40/50
40/45
90-94 / 96
It’s exciting to consider how Bradish’s stuff might play in the bullpen, as his max-effort delivery and the way it detracts from his command will likely prevent him from starting for long in pro ball. His arm action has gorgeous efficiency and it, plus Bradish’s full-body thrust towards the plate, helped him generate the occasional mid-90s fastball early in his college starts, before he’d settle in the low-90s and upper-80s in the later innings. His breaking ball has bat-missing vertical action and is hard for hitters to differentiate out of Bradish’s hand, in part because his delivery causes the ball to suddenly appear out from behind his head, which some hitters struggle to adjust to. Most of these traits would seem to play best in short stints, and we have Bradish projected as a good middle reliever, though if his fastball ticks up in single-inning outings he could be a high-leverage option.
27. Alexander Ramirez, RF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age
16.5
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
So young is Ramirez that he had to wait almost two months after the July 2 signing day to turn 16 and become eligible to put pen to paper on his pro contract, which included a $1 million bonus. He’s a typical, frame-based projection outfield prospect at a lean, high-waisted, broad-shouldered 6-foot-2. His upright swing is currently suited for high-ball contact but, based on the Angels propensity for enacting swing changes, that will likely change pretty quickly. As he grows into his body and better incorporates his lower half into his swing, he could have serious in-game power at maturity. Likely a long-term developmental project, Ramirez may not be stateside for actual games until the 2020 AZL.
Drafted: 18th Round, 2015 from Wabash Valley JC (IL) (LAA)
Age
23.8
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
220
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
45/50
50/55
50/50
40/50
40/50
90-93 / 96
Herrin made a few late-season Tommy John rehab appearances last August and September, and his stuff had not only returned, but improved. He has a starter’s mix led by two quality breaking balls, his fastball will creep into the mid-90s, and his changeup has some armside fade. It’s No. 4 or 5 starter stuff, a pitch mix that belongs ahead of Luis Madero on this list. But Herrin turns 24 in April, has yet to pitch above A-ball, and only showed this quality stuff in short, 20 or 30-pitch outings. He’s a candidate to be pushed quickly if he continues to throw like this, though he may be on an innings limit this year, his first full slate back from injury. We like him as a sleeper breakout prospect in this system.
Walsh’s primary responsibilities vacillated between the mound and the batter’s box while he was in college. He did more pitching as a freshman and junior, more hitting as a sophomore and senior. Now it appears he may do a little bit of both in the big leagues, as last year he stepped on a pro mound for the first time, touching 93 with his fastball, and showing an average curveball on occasion. He also had a breakout offensive season, though 13 of his 29 home runs came in the Cal League, which, especially at age 24, should cause some skepticism as to how much it reflects true talent. Walsh does have some power and he lifts the baseball consistently, so while he doesn’t have a hit/power combination fit for profiling at any of the defensive spots he’s capable of playing, he could run into some bombs in a pinch-hitting role. He’s also a better runner and first base defender than is typical for his position and may contribute in those areas, as well. Walsh has an interesting, multi-faceted skillset and could be used as a Swiss Army Knife bench piece, if a bit of a blunt one, who allows flexibility on other parts of the roster.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (LAA)
Age
23.5
Height
5′ 11″
Weight
190
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
40/50
55/60
50/55
40/40
88-93 / 94
The Angels continued Peña’s development as a starter last year even though his wildness will likely relegate him to the bullpen eventually. His low-90s fastball plays up because his gargantuan stride creates big extension and two extra ticks of perceived velo. So extreme is Peña’s leap off the mound that it appears to detract from his command because it’s so hard to harness. His slider and changeup both flash plus, and he arbuably has better feel for locating either of those than his fastball. He has No. 4 or 5 starter stuff, but issues with fastball location make him too inefficient to start. He reached Triple-A last year but struggled, and was passed over in the Rule 5; he’s a candidate to bounce back.
Procopio was a solid senior sign in the 10th round in 2017 as a Friday starter for Niagara. In that role, he had a TrackMan-friendly rising fastball that sat 90-93 and hit 95 mph occasionally, and he relied heavily on an above average-flashing breaking ball, fringy command, and average control to post numbers against weaker competition. After signing, the Angels put him in the bullpen and his velocity immediately ticked up in shorter stints, working 94-96 and hitting 99 mph. His control and command got a bit worse, and he hasn’t quite struck the balance in his delivery and approach between newfound power stuff and control, but he could find himself on the shortlist for big league bullpen contention if and when he does.
Other Prospects of Note
Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.
All of these guys are between 23 and 26 years old, and could contribute to the big club in some capacity this year or next. Beasley has the best long-term prognosis as a potential fifth starter. His splitter is plus, the rest of his stuff average. Almonte debuted way back in 2015 but injuries have kept him list-eligible. He has a plus curveball and fastball velo but the injuries and command issues are worrisome, and he was unclaimed after being DFA’d fairly recently. Hanewich is a one-pitch guy but it’s a great pitch. His fastball is 97-99 with plus-plus extension but his delivery is erratic and his secondaries are inconsistent, though his change plays well off the heater when he locates it competitively. Jerez is a mid-90s lefty with a good splitter and 40 control, and might be a reliever if the command improves.
All of these prospects are about 19 years old and currently in the lower levels of the minors. Pina sits 91-94 with 7-foot-2 of extension, and has an above-average slider. He may end up as a late-inning arm but looks more like a reliever who’ll take a few years. Yan is a lefty with presently average velo and an arm action that promises more. He has feel for a curveball that could be plus at peak but he’s probably also reliever due to a lack of changeup feel. De La Cruz isn’t a good defensive infielder but he has 55 bat speed and pull-side power; he’s a 50 runner with a 55 arm. He may end up in right field, but if the glove improves, he’ll be quite interesting. Franco will flash a plus curveball and he also sits about 90-94, but he’s less projectable than the typical 19-year-old due to a smaller frame.
Santos was a favorite of ours when he was a Giants AZL arm. He was part of Tampa’s return for Matt Moore but had a shoulder injury and was released. When healthy, he was 91-94 with a bevy of average secondaries and a chance one of the breaking balls would be above at peak. Perez was a hard-throwing, big-bodied relief type who was released by prospect-laden San Diego. Almeida was a minor league Rule 5 pick a few years ago. He sits 93-96 and has a plus curveball but 30 control. Ortega and De Horta both throw hard, peaking in the 95-96 range. All of these arms are age 22 to 24.
System Overview
Once clearly the worst system in baseball, this group is now pretty exciting, if somewhat monochromatic. There are some clear trends at play, the first being that the club’s draft strategy has taken on a toolsier, more athletic vibe in recent years, with several high picks spent on splashy high schoolers like Adell, Adams, and English. The club has also targeted versatile defenders with good plate discipline on the pro side, yielding Rengio and Soto, while doing everything it can to hoard pitching depth behind what has been a snake-bitten big league staff, even at the expense of some interesting young arms like Elvin Rodriguez, who would have fairly prominent placement in the 40 FV tier on this list had he not be dealt for Ian Kinsler (though Buttrey would rank higher). The Angels clearly have a type or two now, but they’re types we like.
The player development arm of the org is one of the more aggressive groups in the league, and is unabashed about mechanical tinkering. Trent Deveaux’s multitude of swings look bad because he has struggled so mightily, but there have been more prospects improved by the changes than there have been players who have gone backwards. Taylor Ward graduated off the list, but he made positive alterations before his call-up, and the changes made by Walsh, Thaiss, and Hermosillo have all been clear improvements, while the jury is still out on Jahmai Jones’ tweaks. Brandon Marsh may show a dramatic shift this year as the gap between his BP raw power and in-game approach to contact is quite, quite vast.
Another trend on this list: lots of pitchers throwing harder. Canning throws harder now than he did in college, Suarez and Madero had velo spikes last year, and Soriano’s uptick, while predictable because of his build, came sooner than expected. The scouting staff has given what appears to be a good player dev group lots of malleable athletes to work with and, so far, results have been positive even though most of the guys we’re excited about haven’t done anything in the big leagues yet.
Shohei Ohtani won’t be pitching this season as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and 2017 first-round picks Hunter Greene and Brendan McKay are a long way from reaching the majors, but this spring, several teams are experimenting with the possibility of two-way players — enough that it’s worth taking a closer look. If spring is a time to dream on lefty knuckleball pitchers who have been woodshedding in South Korea, then we can certainly spare a few thoughts for what might become a new breed of the 25th man.
Mind you, we’re not talking about a new generation of Ohtani clones. For these position players getting more serious about pitching, and the pitcher getting more serious about position play, the model is probably something closer to Brooks Kieshnick. A two-time winner of the Dick Howser Trophy in college for his double-duty work at the University of Texas, and then the 10th overall pick of the 1993 draft by the Cubs, Kieschnick more or less flopped in 113 games played for Chicago, Cincinnati, and Colorado from 1996-2001. He returned to the mound with the White Sox’s Triple-A Charlotte affiliate in 2002, and then with the Brewers in 2003-2004, where he livened up a pair of 94-loss seasons by hitting .286/.340/.496 with eight homers in 144 PA, and pitching to a 4.59 ERA and 4.13 FIP in 96 innings of relief work. He was more successful in the former year than the latter, totaling 0.8 WAR in his dual capacity overall.
The parallels of this quartet to Kieschnick aren’t exact, as each player has taken his own path, and each of these teams has its own vision of how this will work. In an age of longer pitching staffs and shorter benches, this nonetheless rates as a very interesting innovation, even if the returns don’t yield an Ohtani-level star.
Speaking of Ohtani, on the heels of a remarkable season in which he hit .285/.361/.564 with 22 homers and a 152 wRC+, and pitched to a 3.31 ERA and 3.57 FIP in 51.2 innings, he underwent surgery on October 1. The Angels are hoping to get his bat back in May, but he won’t pitch in 2019, which doesn’t rule out the possibility that they will have a two-way player on the roster at some point this season. Jared Walsh, a 25-year-old former 39th-round pick out of the University of Georgia, where he pitched regularly — most teams liked him more as a hurler than as a position player — in addition to playing first base, right field, and DH, is in camp on a non-roster invitation and pulling double duty.
Walsh, who bats and throws left-handed, hit a combined .277/.359/.536 with 29 homers while splitting his season almost evenly between the Halos’ Hi-A, Double-A ,and Triple-A affiliates. He played both outfield corners and first (he’s considered a plus defender at the latter position), and also made eight relief appearances — at least two at each stop — totaling 5.2 innings, striking out seven while allowing six hits and walking two. He pitched in some close games as well as some blowouts, taking an extra-inning loss at Inland Empire and notching a save at Salt Lake. Not that minor league reliever won-loss records mean anything, but he also went 1-1 in two appearances for the team’s A-level Burlington affiliate in 2016.
The Angels liked what they saw of Walsh on the mound enough to send him to the instructional league last fall. He received a crash course in mechanics and arm care, and reported to camp with the pitchers last week and began throwing bullpens. He sports an 88-91 mph fastball that can touch 93 or 94 mph (reports vary) and a slurvy breaking ball that he’s working to improve. The Angels believe he can pitch at the major league level in a relief capacity, though if he moves directly to the mound from a position (as he did in three games for Salt Lake), the team loses its designated hitter for the remainder of the game according to Rule 5.11(a)(14). Thus, that gambit might be saved for interleague games in NL parks.
“We feel like he can do both [roles] at the Major League level, especially with what he did last year offensively,” said new manager Brad Ausmus earlier this month.
“It’s exciting, but I’m trying to keep it simple,” said Walsh. “If I overthink it, things get too complicated. Just hit and pitch and have fun. I’m on the pitchers’ arm care program, so I’ll be doing that every day, but I’ll also be talking to the hitting coaches about hitting and all that stuff. Whatever the schedule is, I just figure it out that day.”
Walsh isn’t even the Angels’ only two-way experiment. They also sent Bo Way, a 2014 seventh-round pick who plays center field, to the instructional league, though he did not get an NRI to the big league camp this spring. Way, who’s another lefty/lefty, hit .312/.383/.376 last year, split between Double-A and Triple-A and made six appearances on the mound, whiffing five in 6.1 innings while allowing six hits, two walks, and two earned runs; twice he pitched in the same game as Walsh. Much further down the system, 2018 fifth-round pick William English was chosen as an outfielder and right-handed pitcher, though he didn’t make any game appearances in the Arizona League last season.
The Angels also planned to let former first-round pick and Baseball America Top 100 prospect Kaleb Cowart try pitching, because let’s face it, the hitting thing wasn’t working (.177/.241/.293 in 380 career PA, with even worse numbers last year). They lost him on waivers to the Mariners in December, however, and then in January, the Mariners lost him to the Tigers, who considered drafting him as a pitcher in 2010. He was considered a first-round pitching talent coming out of Cook High School in Adel, Georgia, where his fastball “sat in the low 90s with sink,” according to The Baseball America Prospect Handbook 2011.
Cowart has played every infield position and left field in the majors, and added right field to his resume while in Salt Lake City. He hasn’t pitched in a professional game yet, but as Tigers manager Ron Gardenhiresaid earlier this week, “We want him to get more involved in the pitching part of it right now. We know what he can do defensively… But he’s going to pitch for now. That’s the main reason we brought him in.”
Cowart has thrown bullpens in camp, but thus far, his control has been spotty. “He threw a pitch right over the hitter’s head and I was behind the screen. But it was right at my lips. I ducked and almost fell off the wheel,” said Gardenhire. “The ball came out of his hand really good, though. He has a nice breaking ball. But it’s going to be a process. He’s got arm strength, though.”
Speaking of former Baseball America Top 100 prospects, now-27-year-old corner infielder Matt Davidson made the list four times from 2011-2014, but has found major league success harder to come by, both with the Diamondbacks (2013) and White Sox (2016-18). He did show considerable improvement last year, hitting .228/.319/.419 with 20 homers, a 104 wRC+ and 0.8 WAR in 434 PA — not great, but big steps forward from his 84 wRC+ and -0.9 WAR in 2017. Though he struck out 165 times in each season, his walk rate climbed from 4.3% to 10.5%, with his strikeout rate dipping from 37.2% to 33.3%.
Last year, Davidson proved to be the most effective and plausible choice among position players to take up more regular pitching duty. Amid a season that saw a record 65 pitching appearances by position players (not including Ohtani), he threw three scoreless innings in three appearances, allowing one hit and one walk while striking out two (Rougned Odor and Giancarlo Stanton). At Yucaipa High School in California, he served as a pitcher/DH and wore no. 51 in tribute to Randy Johnson. Fitting, as he was chosen by Arizona as a 2009 supplemental first-round pick.
Beyond Davidson’s results, which amount to small-sample success in very low leverage situations, he showed an average fastball velocity of 89.9 mph, and maxed out at 92.3 mph. According to Pitch Info, he also threw a curve and a changeup, though Statcast classified some of those changeups as sliders and others as split-fingered fastballs, and various reports confirm that he does have a splitter in his repertoire.
The White Sox nontendered Davidson in November, and while the Rays and Orioles showed interest, he eventually signed a minor league deal with a non-roster invitation with the Rangers earlier this month, so he’ll get to rib Odor, whom he whiffed on a slider on June 29. He’s not aiming to be the next Ohtani. Instead he’s planning to reprise last year’s mop-and-bucket duty, and will work his way to throwing bullpen sessions. Via MLB’s T.R. Sullivan:
“I don’t want to make it sound like I am going to the big leagues and be a good pitcher,” Davidson said. “I’m not trying to be one of the seven or eight relievers. I want to be the pitchers’ best friend. Nobody wants to go in when it is a 7-0 blowout. I want to be the guy that helps them out.”
Finally, moving in the other direction is the Reds’ Michael Lorenzen, a 27-year-old righty who doubled as a center fielder and closer while attending Cal State Fullerton. He was considered draftable in the former capacity, though concerns about his ability to hit for average led him to be favored as a pitcher — favored enough to be a supplemental first-round pick in 2013.
After starting 21 games in 2015, Lorenzen has made just three starts from among his 150 appearances over the past three seasons, all of them last year. In 45 total appearances, he threw 81 innings with a 3.11 ERA and 4.16 FIP; he struck out just 15.7% while walking 9.9%. While he can dial his fastball into the high-90s, it’s generally a sinker he’s throwing (40.8% of all pitches last year, according to Pitch Info) rather than a four-seamer (10.7%); his expansive repertoire also includes a cutter, changeup, curve and slider — enough pitches to start.
On the other side of the ball, after homering once apiece in 2016 and ’17 while making a combined total of 17 plate appearances, Lorenzen bashed four homers last year, one of them a grand slam; in 34 PA, he hit .290/.333/.710. Two of last year’s homers, and his 2017 long ball, came as a pinch-hitter, a capacity in which he’s been used 22 times in his four years. Overall, he’s hit .250/.276/.500 for a 101 wRC+ in 92 PA.
All of which is to say that the Reds had an inkling of the possibilities before. Now they’re looking to take advantage of that to a greater degree, and, with the support of new manager David Bell, have let Lorenzen help craft a plan, which takes a lot of coordination across the coaching and training staff to prevent him from overexerting himself. On the pitching side, they’re stretching Lorenzen out to be either a starter or a multi-inning reliever, while on the position playing side, he’ll be available as a center fielder, though he’s not vying for the starting job, for which top prospect Nick Senzel, an infielder blocked at both second base and third base, is competing. Via MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon:
“It’s fantastic, the effort they’re putting in,” Lorenzen said. “A lot of the excuses were, ‘You know, we don’t want to overwork him.’ Well, let’s just sit down and talk about it then. They were willing to sit down and talk about it, which is one of the reasons why I love this staff so much and why I think the front office did a great job [hiring] this staff. They’re willing to find solutions for problems.”
…”We have the plan laid out. Everyone knows what I’m doing. When I need my rest, I will take my rest because I’m getting the work I need to get in, vs. me going out and getting extra work in all the time and wearing on my body.”
Said Bell, “I have to slow myself down, because I think it’s cool that he’s preparing himself the way he is … it’s very unique and pretty special that he can do it. I love his approach to it. He’s truly preparing himself to give as many options to our team to help us win. It’s nice.”
Because novelty — pitchers hitting home runs, position players taking the mound — enlivens the grind of the long season, rest assured that we’ll be following the progress of all of these players’ attempts to pull double duty, hopefully with some up-to-date scouting detail.
FanGraphs loves Mike Trout. FanGraphs has always loved Mike Trout. FanGraphs isn’t unique in this regard — Mike Trout is the best player in baseball, and, generally speaking, people are aware of that. But FanGraphs is the home of WAR, and it’s by WAR that Trout dominates the competition. Trout is a frequent subject of articles. Trout is also a frequent subject of search queries. He’s commonly atop the list of the most-searched players.
Indeed, today, Trout is way up there, yet again. Although he’s not in first, and he’s not in second. Trout has been the third-most searched player of late, behind Manny Machado and Bryce Harper:
It makes sense. Machado and Harper have been two of the most desirable free agents in the history of free agents. Both players are 26 years old, and both players are among the best at their respective positions. Both players are among the best players, period. For that reason, the Padres just signed Machado for $300 million. Harper and Scott Boras are looking to top that number. Machado’s contract is already setting a free-agent record — or at least it will, once it’s official. There shouldn’t be any more significant obstacles.
Machado and Harper are great. We’ve written plenty about them, because they’re great. You’ve repeatedly been looking them up, because they’re great. But, remember how Trout is also great? Trout is so great he’s been as good as Machado and Harper combined. I am not making that up, and this is not some manufactured hot take. The numbers are just sitting right there.
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Manny Machado signing with the Padres and what the news means for the free-agent market and the futures of the NL West, the Phillies, and Bryce Harper, then preview the 2019 Los Angeles Angels (31:34) with The Athletic’s Angels beat writer, Fabian Ardaya, and the 2019 Milwaukee Brewers (1:02:42) with The Athletic’s Brewers beat writer, Robert Murray, plus a postscript on Machado and Don Newcombe.
Audio intro: The Frames, "Finally" Audio interstitial 1: The Minus 5 (Feat. Ben Gibbard), "I See Angels" Audio interstitial 2: Chip Taylor, "Why Milwaukee" Audio outro: Led Zeppelin, "Ten Years Gone"
When publishing our lists — in particular, the top 100 — we’re frequently asked who, among the players excluded from this year’s version, might have the best chance of appearing on next year’s version. Whose stock are we buying? This post represents our best attempt to answer all of those questions at once.
This is the second year that we’re doing this, and we have some new rules. First, none of the players you see below will have ever been a 50 FV or better in any of our write-ups or rankings. So while we think Austin Hays might have a bounce back year and be a 50 FV again, we’re not allowed to include him here; you already know about him. We also forbid ourselves from using players who were on last year’s inaugural list. (We were right about 18 of the 63 players last year, a 29% hit rate, though we have no idea if that’s good or not, as it was our first time engaging in the exercise.) At the end of the piece, we have a list of potential high-leverage relievers who might debut this year. They’re unlikely to ever be a 50 FV or better because of their role, but they often have a sizable impact on competitive clubs, and readers seemed to like that we had that category last year.
We’ve separated this year’s players into groups or “types” to make it a little more digestible, and to give you some idea of the demographics we think pop-up guys come from, which could help you identify some of your own with THE BOARD. For players who we’ve already covered this offseason, we included a link to the team lists, where you can find a full scouting report. We touch briefly on the rest of the names in this post. Here are our picks to click:
Teenage Pitchers
Torres was young for his draft class, is a plus athlete, throws really hard, and had surprisingly sharp slider command all last summer. White looked excellent in the fall when the Rangers finally allowed their high school draftees to throw. He sat 92-94, and his changeup and breaking ball were both above-average. Pardinho and Woods Richardson are the two advanced guys in this group. Thomas is the most raw but, for a someone who hasn’t been pitching for very long, he’s already come a long way very quickly.
The “This is What They Look Like” Group
If you like big, well-made athletes, this list is for you. Rodriguez was physically mature compared to his DSL peers and also seems like a mature person. The Mariners have indicated they’re going to send him right to Low-A this year. He could be a middle-of-the-order, corner outfield power bat. Luciano was the Giants’ big 2018 July 2 signee. He already has huge raw power and looks better at short than he did as an amateur. Canario has elite bat speed. Adams was signed away from college football but is more instinctive than most two-sport athletes. Most of the stuff he needs to work on is related to getting to his power.
Advanced Young Bats with Defensive Value
This is the group that produces the likes of Vidal Brujan and Luis Urias. Edwards is a high-effort gamer with 70 speed and feel for line drive contact. Marcano isn’t as stocky and strong as X, but he too has innate feel for contact, and could be a plus middle infield defender. Perez has great all-fields contact ability and might be on an Andres Gimenez-style fast track, where he reaches Double-A at age 19 or 20. Ruiz is the worst defender on this list, but he has all-fields raw power and feel for contact. He draws Alfonso Soriano comps. Palacios is the only college prospect listed here. He had three times as many walks as strikeouts at Towson last year. Rosario controls the zone well, is fast, and is a plus defender in center field.
Corner Power Bats
Nevin will probably end up as a contact-over-power first baseman, but he might also end up with a 70 bat. He looked great against Fall League pitching despite having played very little as a pro due to injury. Lavigne had a lot of pre-draft helium and kept hitting after he signed. He has all-fields power. Apostel saw reps at first during instructs but has a good shot to stay at third. He has excellent timing and explosive hands.
College-aged Pitchers
It’s hard to imagine any of these guys rocketing into the top 50 overall. Rather, we would anticipate that they end up in the 60-100 range on next year’s list. Gilbert was a workhorse at Stetson and his velo may spike with reshaped usage. Singer should move quickly because of how advanced his command is. Lynch’s pre-draft velocity bump held throughout the summer, and he has command of several solid secondaries. Abreu spent several years in rookie ball and then had a breakout 2018, forcing Houston to 40-man him to protect him from the Rule 5. He’ll tie Dustin May for the second-highest breaking ball spin rate on THE BOARD when the Houston list goes up. We’re intrigued by what Dodgers player dev will do with an athlete like Gray. Phillips throws a ton of strikes and has a good four-pitch mix.
Bounce Back Candidates
The Dodgers have a strong track record of taking severely injured college arms who return with better stuff after a long period of inactivity. That could be Grove, their 2018 second rounder, who missed most of his sophomore and junior seasons at West Virginia. McCarthy was also hurt during his junior season and it may have obscured his true abilities. Burger is coming back from multiple Achilles ruptures, but was a strong college performer with power before his tire blew.
Catchers
We’re very excited about the current crop of minor league catchers. Naylor is athletic enough that he’s likely to improve as a defender and he has rare power for the position.
Potentially Dominant Relievers
These names lean “multi-inning” rather than “closer.” Gonsolin was a two-way player in college who has been the beneficiary of sound pitch design. He started last year but was up to 100 mph out of the bullpen the year before. He now throws a four seamer rather than a sinker and he developed a nasty splitter in 2017. He also has two good breaking balls. He has starter stuff but may break in as a reliever this year.
After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels, allegedly of Anaheim.
You may have heard of Mike Trout; he’s pretty good. I’m amazed that Andrelton Simmons still seems to be underrated by the media and fans. When was the last time a shortstop with a crazily hyped glove was underrated? You’d almost think that he was Adam Everett or Mark Belanger or Omar Vizquel when in fact he’d have been worth just under eight WAR over the last two seasons if he were a league-average defensive shortstop. Simmons has already snuck into the Top 50 all-time by my colleague Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric, just a season from catching Dave Concepcion, Rafael Furcal, Vizquel, and the fringe Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville. ZiPS projects Simmons to finish his career as the No. 14 shortstop by JAWS, just behind Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin, and just ahead of Bobby Wallace and Lou Boudreau. Andrelton is a superstar.
Albert Pujols is no longer a major league-caliber baseball player. He’s collected his 3000th hit and his 600th home run, but pretending that Pujols, at his best one of the greatest hitters of our generation, deserves a spot on the roster, let alone significant playing time, is becoming increasingly untenable. At some point, the Angels have to approach him with a plan to make as graceful and quick an exit from his playing career as they can manage, because in a world where the team was serious about fielding the best possible roster, they would be contemplating Pujols’ unconditional release. Even the creators of AfterMASH only needed two seasons to figure out they could only taint M*A*S*H’s legacy. The Angels have let three hitters go overseas this winter who project as more useful than Pujols (Jefry Marte, Jabari Blash, and the much-maligned Jose Miguel Fernandez).
I wouldn’t be quick to think of Shohei Ohtani’s offensive performance as fluky; in some ways, it’s just a natural power improvement from his previous year in Japan. ZiPS translated Ohtani’s final two seasons in Japan at .289/.356/.485, which looks a lot like his .285/.361/.564 with the Angels, with the power growth you hope to see from a talented young player with relatively few professional at-bats (he’s only at 1536 total now). ZiPS thinks he’ll have a lower average than in 2018, but he’s a real major league hitter.
Pitchers
If the Angels could keep all five of their starting pitchers healthy, the rotation would at least be acceptable. Problem is, essentially the entire rotation has an injury history, and many of its members have an extensive one. What’s frustrating about the Angels is that they have such highs in certain areas, but also several holes they’ve barely made a meaningful effort to go about fixing. ZiPS doesn’t see very high ceilings for any of the pitchers actually on the roster. If any team needed to go after Jake Arrieta last year or Dallas Keuchel this year, it’s the Angels. It would only take a few injuries for the Angels to have to turn to Dillon Peters or JC Ramirez (after he returns), which no contending team should be excited about.
Bench and Prospects
And here is why the Angels will fall short of the ZiPS seasonal simulation of the win total on their depth chart: the team’s plan B’s are absolutely atrocious around the field. The exceptions in the short-term are Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning, though I expect the Angels to give both a consolidation year at Triple-A (Suarez is still very young and Canning still has relatively little professional experience). Let’s put it this way: NRI Jarrett Parker is projected as the team’s fourth-best outfielder.
Things will get better. Jo Adell’s long-term projections are bananas, and the upside projections for Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh are at least…an apple? With a Brennon, two Brandons, and a Brendon in the projections, the Angels might as well sign Brennan Boesch to complete the set. The farm system has been steadily improving, but if the Angels want to stop wasting the prime of the best player they have ever had, and possibly will ever have, they really need to do better than dip a toe into free agency while they wait for the prospects to save them.
One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.
Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.
Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.
ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.
Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.
Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.
It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Chavez Young came out of nowhere to become one of the hottest prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. But he is following an atypical path. The 21-year-old outfielder grew up in the Bahamas before moving stateside as a teen, and going on to be selected in the 39th round of the 2016 draft out of Faith Baptist Christian Academy, in Ludowici, Georgia.
Since that time he’s become a shooting star. Playing for the Lansing Lugnuts in the Low-A Midwest League this past season, Young stroked 50 extra-base hits, stole 44 bases, and slashed a rock-solid .285/.363/.445.
After he signed with the Yankees, Adam Ottavino became the ninth reliever on our Top 50 Free Agent list to get a contract for next season. The Yankees taking Ottavino off the board meant there were just two relievers to go. One is Craig Kimbrel, who has been one of the better relievers in baseball over the last half-dozen seasons. The other is Cody Allen, who was one of the better relievers in baseball in 2015, solid in 2016 and 2017, and not very good last year. His poor 2018 season showing plunged him down our rankings and left him as one of the less desirable proven-reliever types available this offseason. His track record did mean something, though, and per Ken Rosenthal, he’s landed a one-year, $8.5 million deal with the Angels that has the chance of being worth $11 million based on games finished.
Allen, picked in the 23rd round of the 2010 draft, moved quickly through the Cleveland system as a reliever, reaching Double-A a year after he was drafted and hitting the majors one year later. He was a good reliever in 2013 and 2014, with sub-3.00 FIPs and ERAs better than that. He took over the closer role in 2014 and had his best season the following year, striking out 35% of batters, walking 9% and giving up just two home runs all season, to go along with a 15% infield fly rate. When Cleveland acquired Andrew Miller in 2015, the club could afford to put the lefty in high leverage situations in the middle of games without worrying about the ninth because Allen was closing. He didn’t give up a run during their playoff run to the World Series and struck out 24 of the 55 batters he faced.
Allen had another solid season in 2017, though not as good as his 2015 peak due to a slight decline in strikeouts and an increase in homers. In 2018, Allen started off the first two months of the season pitching much like he had his prior two years. His strikeout rate had dipped to 25%, but his walk rate was good and he only gave up two homers on his way to a 3.54 FIP and 3.00 ERA. He wasn’t great, but he was getting the job done. From June to the end of the season, his strikeout rate was up at 29%, but his walk rate went up to 13% and his home run rate more than doubled. He had a 5.14 FIP and 5.65 ERA the last four months of the season, leading to an overall replacement-level campaign. In the playoffs, he faced nine batters and retired just three of them. Read the rest of this entry »
There was a minor trade on Tuesday night as the Angels acquired recently DFA’d righty John Curtiss from Minnesota for 18-year-old Dominican infielder Daniel Ozoria.
The Curtiss addition is the latest of many examples of relief pitcher diffusion happening on the fringe of the Angels 40-man roster. Since November, the Angels have been part of eleven transactions involving relief pitchers, either via trade, waiver claim, or DFA. The likes of Austin Brice, Parker Bridwell, Luke Farrell, and Dillon Peters have been on and off the roster, sometimes more than once (Bridwell, who was DFA’d for Curtiss, has now been DFA’d three times since this offseason), as the Angels try to patch holes in their bullpen for free.
Curtiss, who is 25, has thrown an unsatisfying handful of innings during each of the last two seasons, totaling 15 big league frames. He throws hard, 92-96 with the occasional 7 or 8, and can really spin a power, mid-80s slider (he averaged 2600 rpm in 2018). His command backpedaled last season and is the biggest thing standing between Curtiss and a steady middle relief gig. Perhaps the change of scenery will be good for him.
Ozoria spent his second professional season as a 17-year-old in the AZL, and at times he looked like he could have used a second pass at the DSL. Listed at 5-foot-9, 135 pounds, Ozoria struggled with the pace and comparably mature athletes of Arizona. He does have interesting tools, though, and played hard throughout a tough summer on a team that was really struggling. He’s an above-average runner and athlete. Though not a polished, instinctive defender, he has good range and hands, and enough arm for the left side of the infield.
Because Ozoria so lacks present strength, he needs to take max-effort, full-body hacks just to swing the bat hard, and sometimes things can get out of control. His swing also has some length, but I’m not sure it matters as much for hitters this size, because their levers aren’t. Much of Ozoria’s offensive potential just depends on how much growing he has left to do. He’s small enough that I believe that were he a high school prospect, scouts would rather he go to college to get a better idea of how his body might mature than sign him now. The realistic upside is probably a utility infielder, and even that depends on significant growth that may not materialize, but Ozoria is so uncommonly young for a pro prospect that it’s fair to like the things he can already do and project heavily on the stuff he can’t. He will likely spend all of 2019 in Fort Myers and is probably four or five years away from the big leagues.
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