I watch a lot of baseball, to the point that you might think it would all seem routine to me. After all, how many times can one person see a monster home run before the achievement loses its luster? Yet, at least for me, that could not be further from the truth. More often than not, the players on the field still find ways to captivate and surprise me. In a league with Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Paul Skenes, the unimaginable seems to happen on a regular basis. But early last week, I experienced one of the more jaw-dropping baseball moments of my life, courtesy of Athletics rookie center fielder Denzel Clarke in a game against the Angels.

I wasn’t the only one either. The whole baseball was excited about Clarke’s catch. Martín Gallegos of MLB.com talked with Clarke and his peers about it. In the Wall Street Journal, Jared Diamond used the catch as the hook to tell a more in-depth story about Clarke. Sam Miller covered Clarke’s two-and-a-half week progression of dealing with the wall over on his Substack, Pebble Hunting. And, of course, last week Ben Clemens led his Five Things column with Clarke and the catch. If you’re like me and can’t get enough of the catch, you should check out all four of these pieces.

So, about that catch… Clarke channeled his inner Spider-Man by scaling the Angel Stadium wall, catching the ball, and gracefully protecting his body on the way down, finishing with a perfectly symmetrical two-foot landing. The athletic ability is no surprise, given he was doing this last fall in Arizona. The little things, though, are great to see from an early development perspective. The entire play is a perfect demonstration of everything that Clarke excels at defensively — burst, route, deceleration, wall awareness — in addition to the acrobatics. I’m going to break it all down here today. But first, I want to make sure we’re all on the same page about how good Clarke has been on defense to start his young career. Let’s start with the outfield OAA leaders this season:

Clarke has played in 24 games and has 9 OAA, which is tied for third best among outfielders. The two players ahead of him — Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ceddanne Rafaela – have both played over 400 more defensive innings than him. Basically, almost every time Clarke has attempted a play that most other outfielders wouldn’t have made, he’s caught the ball.

Having 95th percentile speed is certainly a major part of that, but as we know, speed alone doesn’t make an elite defensive outfielder. To understand the other pieces of Clarke’s defensive game, we have to watch some video. Where better to start than with the Spider-Man catch.

With Grant Holman on the bump and Nolan Schanuel at the plate with no runners on, Clarke has a standard alignment. On a 1-0 pitch, Schanuel gets a splitter over the heart of the plate and puts as great swing on it, launching the ball 29 degrees at 102 mph to left-center field. Let’s watch it again:

Man, there are so many things to unpack with this play. Clarke is already at full speed by the time the camera cuts to him. He has the third-best burst in the majors, meaning that once he gets going in his route, he is absolutely cooking to get to the ball. Clarke’s reaction metric is actually only around average compared to other outfielders. What he does is a common strategy many fielders employ when tracking down fly balls: He waits a split second to find the ball to make sure he’ll take a more efficient route. From there, he accelerates to the spot where the ball is going.

After the jump, outfielders need to determine where they are relative to the ball and the wall, and then adjust their speed accordingly. Here, Clarke steals two quick looks after sprinting for several steps. First, he flicks his head around to look for the warning track; then, after a few more steps, he flicks his head around again, this time to find the wall. These glances force him to slow down and be more under control as he attempts to make the catch, which is especially important on this particular play, when he not only has to track the fly ball but also scale the wall.

His elite burst, efficient route, and poised deceleration give him a chance to make the play. Pure athleticism does the rest.

With a few choppy steps on the warning track, he gets in the perfect position to propel his body up and over the wall. He then grabs the top of the wall with his throwing hand to steady himself. Simultaneously, he extends his left arm, snags the ball, and rotates his upper body to protect is shoulder and halt his momentum so he and the ball don’t end up on the other side of the fence. He continues his clock-wise turn and rolls off the wall to land smoothly with two feet on the ground, then pops up to celebrate his absurd accomplishment.

Clarke dazzles on defense even when he’s not robbing home runs. I am most impressed with his proficiency on low line drives. These may seem fairly straightforward, but they are among the more difficult plays for outfielders. On an episode of his Bleacher Report podcast, On Base, from last week, Mookie Betts spoke with guest Jackson Merrill about a number of baseball topics, including Clarke’s catch. During the conversation, Merrill, a converted shortstop in his second year as a center fielder, said line drives are the most difficult batted balls for him to field. This is a common sentiment among outfielders. You have less time to read the flight of the ball and determine its trajectory; hesitation can lead to extra bases. So outfielders have to make a decision quickly and stick to it — and they need to be correct. Here are some examples of liners that Clarke has tracked down so far this season:

That first one, hit by Nick Castellanos, looks destined for the gap, but with a quick read and a straight route to the ball, Clarke catches it with ease. He recognizes the ball is looping a little, meaning he has a bit more time to cut it off in the air. If it’s hit slightly harder or with less arc, maybe he wouldn’t attempt to catch it, instead opting to head for the wall and play the carom.

Or maybe, considering how Clarke approaches the scorchers off the bats of Taylor Ward (second liner) and Bo Bichette (fourth), he’d run faster and make the play anyway. He looks just as comfortable snatching those two would-be extra-base hits, each rocketed over 105 mph.

He can afford to do this because of how quickly he can slow down. See how he overruns Ward’s line drive? That would be disastrous for most outfielders, but not for Clarke. He’s sprinting to his right, then suddenly decelerates with a slide and reaches back to his left. And he can do this in all directions.

The best outfielders are often the ones who aren’t afraid to sacrifice their bodies. Clarke is no exception, but he also isn’t reckless; he knows how to dive in a way that limits his injury risk. Watch the third play in the video above, when he dives forward as he comes in on the ball. Notice how he catches the ball in the center of his body. This allows him to make the catch with his hands facing upward so his wrists and shoulders are less exposed, thereby preventing awkward landings that could lead to jammed joints, torn ligaments, and broken bones.

Clarke’s defensive skills are so advanced that the A’s are willing to run him out there even as he struggles mightily at the plate. The good news, as Ben noted in last week’s Five Things, is Clarke was a productive hitter in the minors, and maybe he just needs time to develop at the big league level. I really hope that’s the case, because it’s such a treat to watch him play center field.

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. I took a week off to indulge in a little French Open binge-watching, and after one of the greatest finals of my lifetime, I was ready to charge back into baseball. That feeling – charging ahead – has been something of a theme across baseball of late. You want speed? Chaos? Huge tools and do-or-die choices? This week’s list is for you. It starts, as usual, with a nod to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for originating this format. It also starts, as everything seems to these days, with a green-and-gold blur.

1. The Flash
If you turn on a random A’s game of late, you’re liable to see something like this:

And if you’re lucky, something like this afterward:

Denzel Clarke is on quite the heater right now. That spectacular play doesn’t even come close to his greatest major league feat, this absurd home run robbery:

Read the rest of this entry »

Lawrence Butler does a lot of things well, but he cannot hit a high fastball. Entering play on June 2, Butler had just one career barrel against an elevated fastball: A deep fly out off an 87.5 mph Trevor Williams “heater” in the dog days of 2023. In 2025, he’s whiffing on over half his swings at high heaters, per the Baseball Savant-defined shadow zones at the top edge of the strike zone. (That’s attack zones 11, 12, and 13 for the Savant search heads.)

Most of the hitters with high whiff rates on top-rail four-seamers have steep swing planes. (Aaron Judge and Luis Robert Jr. are two notable examples.) Not Butler: His 31 degree swing tilt is actually a bit flatter than the major league average. Butler’s primary issue is timing — his average attack direction on these pitches is oriented 18 degrees toward the opposite field; his zero degree attack angle is perfectly flat. Whatever the reason, it’s a clear hole, and certain pitchers are primed to exploit it. Read the rest of this entry »

He doesn’t look like he’s riding a horse so much as he looks like he’s pretending to ride a horse. I have been thinking about it for a while now, and that is as well as I can describe the way Jacob Wilson gets ready for the pitch. He looks like he’s pretending to ride a horse. I say this with love.

Baseball is hard. The ball is small and very dense. A big, strong man stands not very far away and repeatedly throws it pretty much right at you with a great deal of force. The ball performs all sorts of twists and turns on its short journey toward almost breaking your fragile human body, and not only are you expected to not run away, you’re expected to hit it with a stick. So if the only way that you can manage to do all that is by pretending to ride a horse for a few seconds while you’re waiting for the missile to be launched, then by all means, pretend to ride a horse for a few seconds:

(I started writing this article the day after the Statcast team released all their new fancy bat tracking information, including wireframe models of every player’s average swing. Naturally, I offered MLB.com’s Mike Petriello $20 to find me a few seconds of wireframe footage of Wilson doing his bouncy pre-pitch routine. He declined like a principled jerk, even after I upped the offer to $23.) Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. For once, I don’t have a fistful of double plays to show you. I don’t even have that many great catches. The baseball I watched this week was disjointed and messy, the regular season at its finest. Making the easy plays tough? We’ve got that. Bringing in your lefty to face their righty slugger? Got that too. Doubles that weren’t? Collisions between out-of-position players? Yes and yes. So thanks Zach Lowe for the wonderful article format, and let’s get started.

1. Tell ‘Em, Wash
I mean, how hard could first base be? Incredibly hard, of course. The Red Sox and Rangers are both on to their respective Plan Bs at first base after Triston Casas ruptured his patellar tendon and Jake Burger got sent down to Triple-A. No big deal defensively, right? Each team plugged in a utility player — Romy Gonzalez for Boston and Josh Smith for Texas — and moved on with life. Look how easy first is:

Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. With the first month of major league baseball in the books, I’m settling into the rhythm of the regular season. Baseball writing in the morning, baseball on TV in the afternoon, and usually baseball on TV in the evening. Every so often, I’ll skip two of those and go to the ballpark instead. The actual baseball is falling into a rhythm, too. The Dodgers have the best record in baseball, Aaron Judge is the best hitter, and Paul Skenes is the best pitcher, just like we all expected. But part of the rhythm of baseball is that the unexpected happens multiple times a day, and that’s what Five Things is for. With a nod of recognition and thanks to Zach Lowe of The Ringer for the column format, let’s start the shenanigans.

1. Stopping at Third
The math is pretty easy: A double with runners on second and third scores both runners. Sometimes it even brings home a guy standing on first at the start of the play, too. Last week, though, things got weird. First, Jacob Stallings flat out demolished a ball off the right field wall, but Hunter Goodman didn’t have the read:

Hey, that happens. There are a few plays like this in the majors every year. The batter can tear around the bases as much as he wants, but runners have to stop and make sure it’s a hit first. Goodman couldn’t be sure that the ball would hit the wall, and with no one out, he quite reasonably played it safe. Blake Dunn played the carom perfectly, and again, with nobody out, Goodman didn’t try his luck at home. Read the rest of this entry »

Some days, we analyze all of baseball here at FanGraphs, and maybe come up with some tools that will help predict all of future baseball. Injury-aware depth charts, payroll matrices, top prospect lists: You get the idea. Today, however, is not one of those days, at least not for me. That’s because after watching some videos of Tyler Soderstrom being very strong, I tried to figure out whether his early-season success will continue.

Being very strong is a valuable skill, at least when it comes to hitting a baseball. People don’t ooh and aah over Aaron Judge because his name makes for a fun fan section; they do it because he hits the ball so far. There are countless different ways to be good at hitting, but let’s be honest with each other: Being really strong is one of the best ways. Chicks don’t dig the well-placed opposite field sinking liner, you know? Or, if they do, no one made t-shirts about it.

How strong is Tyler Soderstrom? Well, watch this swing:

I’m sure you’ve heard of taking what the pitcher gives you, going to the opposite field when the ball is away rather than trying to pull it. I’m fairly certain that the people giving that advice don’t mean that you should flick your wrists and smash the ball over the fence at 100 miles an hour, though.
Read the rest of this entry »

During the course of my spring training coverage (especially right at the end), I ran into the Giants affiliates a couple of times as I trailed the Brewers and Dodgers farm systems. I saw enough to make a few tweaks to the Giants prospect list, which I have brief notes on below. You can see the complete updated list over on The Board. I’ve also included notes on a few recent trades.

Toolsy Outfielders With Strikeout Risk Who Have Moved Up

Dakota Jordan’s swing has changed (mostly his posture throughout the swing), and I think it gives him a better chance to hit. I was way out on him making any kind of viable contact before last year’s draft, but he has loud showcase tools (power/speed) and now we’ll see if the proactive changes make a difference for his contact ability. He has also looked good in center field, including highlight reel play in which he collided with the wall at Papago Park, but then forgot how many outs there were and spiked the baseball:

Read the rest of this entry »

We have all kinds of fantastic stats for tracking player performance, metrics that are descriptive, predictive and somewhere in between. Today, I would like to introduce a descriptive stat for the folks on the team who do not wear spikes. Think of this as an attempt to measure the performance of management by trying to quantify the work of the front office and coaching staff using a folky metaphor.

Oh, Puff the magic dragon lived by the sea
And frolicked in the autumn mist, in a land called Honah Lee

Baseball is a game for kids. The best of the best get to frolic in the autumn mist in a Honah Lee called the World Series. Baseball has many reasons to favor youth, some structural to the game as a business and others more existential, like Peter, Paul and Mary sing about.

Team control and the aging process conspire to make young, developing players the most valuable to the ballclub. Their income constraints mean that youngsters can rack up surplus value if they hit their ceiling, and are an inexpensive sunk cost at worst. The best baseball exists in the sweet spot between the physicality of youth and the skill earned through repetition. Not exactly revolutionary, but my stat builds from the logic that you want to play guys who can either contribute to wins this season or might develop into contributors in the future. Additionally, I am assuming that playing time at the major league level is far better for evaluation and development than the upper minors due to the quality of competition as well as the availability of data, scouting tools and other resources, though obviously that might vary depending on the org and the player. Here is where Peter, Paul and Mary, darlings of the Greenwich folk scene of the 1960s, come into play. Read the rest of this entry »

Matt Chapman came in at no. 3 when our 2015 Oakland Athletics Top Prospects list was published in February of that year. Assigned a 45 FV by our then lead prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel, Chapman had been drafted 25th overall out of Cal State-Fullerton the previous summer. Playing most of his initial professional season in the Low-A Midwest League, the 21-year-old third baseman swatted five home runs and put up a modest .672 OPS over 202 plate appearances.

What did Chapman’s 2015 scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think of it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what McDaniel (now with ESPN) wrote and asked Chapman to respond to it.

———

“A standout hitter and pitcher for Fullerton that didn’t have much first-round buzz for reasons I didn’t understand.”

“He was thinking like I do,” Chapman replied. “I thought I was a little underrated. Obviously, the A’s took a chance on me and it all worked out. But that’s funny, because I thought I had all the tools. I just wasn’t getting the love.”

“Chapman, has an 80 arm and has been into the high 90s on the mound, but is mostly an arm-strength guy with a short track record of pitching.” Read the rest of this entry »