The Detroit Tigers are in full rebuild mode, and Isaac Paredes projects as a big part of their future. His bat is the primary reason why. Despite an August swoon that caused his numbers to plummet, the 18-year-old shortstop finished the season with a .725 OPS. Given that he was one of the youngest players in the Midwest League, that’s not exactly chicken soup.

Paredes was acquired by the Tigers, along with Jeimer Candelario, in the trade-deadline deal that sent Alex Avila and Justin Wilson to the Cubs, and the news threw him for a loop. When I talked a him a week and a half later, the Hermosillo, Mexico native admitted to having been shocked and not particularly pleased. His initial thought was “this is something bad.”

Once his head stopped spinning, his attitude shifted to “this is a good thing.” Paredes realized he was going to an organization that would be relying heavily on players just like himself. Read the rest of this entry »

The Oakland A’s gave up a pair of quality relievers when they traded Sean Doolittle and Ryan Madson to the Washington Nationals in July. The trio of players they got in return are pretty talented themselves. One is already established — Blake Treinen logged 16 saves this year — while the others are promising prospects.

Sheldon Neuse, a 22-year-old infielder out of the University of Oklahoma, recorded a .321/.382/.502 slash line in his first full season of pro ball. The 2016 second-round pick did his damage at three levels, hopscotching from Low-A to High-A to Double-A.

And then there’s Jesus Luzardo, whose ceiling would be best described as “lofty.” While getting his feet wet at the lowest rungs of the minors — Rookie-level ball and the New York-Penn League — the polished-beyond-his-years southpaw struck out 48 and walked just five in 43.1 innings. His ERA was a smooth-and-shiny 1.66.

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Periodically, I’ll be posting notes from in-person observations at Fall Instructional League and Arizona Fall League play. Each are essentially the scouting calendar’s dessert course, both in their timing and sometimes dubious value. I take bad fall looks with a large grain of salt as players are sometimes fatigued, disinterested, put in difficult situations purposefully so that they’ll fail, or some combination of these or other bits of important context. With that in mind here are links to past notes followed by this edition’s.

Previously
9/20 (TEX, SD)
9/21-9/23 (CHA, MIL, SD, TEX)
9/24-9/25 (CHA, CIN, LAN, TEX)
9/27-10/2 (ARI, LAA, OAK, SF)

Instructional League plays is more or less complete. What follows represents my looks from the schedule’s last couple weeks. As the short season progressed, I made an effort to see teams whose minor-league complexes are located in the Phoenix Metro Area’s eastern reaches. Chronological drafts of this post were confusing, as many of these teams play against one another due to ease of travel. As such, notes in this edition are organized by team instead of date.

Colorado 2B Shael Mendoza had a monster summer in the Pioneer League, slashing .362/.412/.519 while swiping 25 bases in 55 games. While Mendoza has strong hands and wrists that lead to loud contact when he squares a ball up, he has some issues that dilute the quality and amount of contact he makes. He’s often out on his front foot early or excessively and his bat isn’t in the hitting zone for very long. He’s also a fringe athlete without great actions at second base. I do think there’s some physical ability with which to work, evident in Mendoza’s power on contact, but I think there’s significant risk that his 2017 on-paper performance was a bit of a mirage.

Read the rest of this entry »

Periodically, I’ll be posting notes from in-person observations at Fall Instructional League and Arizona Fall League play. Each are essentially the scouting calendar’s dessert course, both in their timing and sometimes dubious value. I take bad fall looks with a large grain of salt as players are sometimes fatigued, disinterested, put in difficult situations purposefully so that they’ll fail, or some combination of these or other bits of important context. With that in mind here are links to past notes followed by this edition’s.

Previously: 9/20 (TEX, SD), 9/21-9/23 (SD, CHW, MIL, TEX), 9/24-9/25 (CIN, TEX, LAD, CWS).

9/27

The talent at the Angels complex in Tempe has significantly improved in the last calendar year due to an influx of projectable Latin American pitching and the bevy of athletic outfielders the club has added mostly through the draft. Among those pitching this fall is RHP Stiward Aquino, a 6-foot-6, 18-year old Dominican righty. Aquino’s fastball sat in the 87-92 range but it will bump 95 and there might be more coming as he fills out. His delivery isn’t especially graceful or powerful right now — a byproduct of Aquino’s immature physicality – but it is deceptive and there’s some changeup feel here already. Aquino slots in near the bottom of a suddenly deep hierarchy of low-level Angels pitching prospects, but is worth following.

Chris Rodriguez threw this day as well and struggled. He sat 92-94 with his fastball and was up to 96, but his secondary stuff simply wasn’t as sharp as it had been earlier in the year. Minor League Rule 5 pick Adrian Almeida sat 94-96 with an average curveball, but he continues to struggle with control.

Jo Adell has returned to action in the outfield after DH’ing throughout the summer. He wasn’t throwing well this spring prior to the draft which was disconcerting to some, as Adell was touching 94 as a pitcher the summer before. His arm strength still hasn’t returned — he’s throwing with a 30 arm right now. He looks great in the batter’s box and is running well enough to continue playing center field for a while, but he’ll be limited to left field if his arm strength doesn’t return.

Giants OF Sandro Fabian had a rough year at Low-A, largely due to a hyper-aggressive approach that led to a 2% walk rate. He’s making among the loudest contact at Instructional League, with multiple exit velocities in excess of 100 mph during my in-person looks. He tracks pitches well, has great timing and bat control and can drive balls to all fields. There’s special offensive talent here, and I’m still buying stock in Fabian even after a horrendous season.

10/2

The Diamondbacks play precious few instructional league games this fall– just three, and one of them isn’t open to the public – and as such are a priority on the days that they do. They faced Oakland in their opener. Arizona prospects were robbed of some at-bats this year due to their playoff berth as Ildemaro Vargas, Chris Owings, Yasmany Tomas and Jeremy Hazelbaker have required at-bats to stay sharp in case they’re suddenly needed by the big club. Owings was rusty on this day and looked a bit slow, running in the 4.3s from home to first instead of his typical blazing 4.1.

Arizona LHP Jordan Watson has perhaps the best breaking ball I’ve seen here this fall, a true plus-plus hammer with bat-missing bite. He didn’t throw many, instead focusing on a low-90s fastball and below average changeup during his outing. He’s 24 and hasn’t pitched in a full season league yet due to injury, but he could be a quick-moving lefty relief piece next year.

Oakland RHP Richard Morban sat 90-93 with a fastball that missed bats up in the zone. He also flashed an above-average changeup in the mid-80s and a fringey, low-80s curveball. Morban turns 20 on Christmas Eve and is a modestly framed 6-foot-2. Though not especially explosive, he is athletic and repeats his delivery, and I think he’ll throw enough strikes to start. He has back-end starter ingredients.

Athletics INF prospect Marcos Brito has shown terrific quickness in his bat, as well as his defensive footwork and actions. He diagnoses balls and strikes consistently and has good feel for opposite field contact, though he struggles to turn on and drive the ball to his pull side.

The first of two Wild Card games is scheduled for tonight. In addition to must-win baseball, this time of year is also typically marked by the appearance of a Dave Cameron piece on the merits of “bullpen-ing” a game — that is, the practice of using nothing but relievers in a single contest, of attempting to exploit matchups in order to maximize the chances of winning.

While the logic of “bullpen-ing” is sound in theory, it also fails to account for the comfort of pitchers who’ve potentially become attached to their roles. To get a better idea of how they might adapt to such an approach and how it might be handled in practice, I asked some actual players about it. Turns out, there’s a particular type of reliever who’s best suited to take the ball in the first few innings of a win-or-go-home game. And a particular type of pitcher who should follow him.

The first thing revealed by my inquiries is that relievers love the idea. “I’m down for whatever,” said Giants reliever Hunter Strickland with a smile. Nationals closer Sean Doolittle just laughed for a while. “Would I get paid like a starting pitcher?” he finally asked after the laughter had subsided.

Relievers would be fine with it because they’re accustomed to answering the call whenever. “We’re used to throwing in whatever inning, [if] not usually the first,” said Strickland. Added Miami’s Brad Ziegler: “I don’t think it would be very different for me, as much as it would be for the starter coming into the game [in the later innings]. His whole routine would have to change.”

And a starter probably would have to throw a couple innings in such a game — in order to reach a full complement of nine and still leave some arms for extras, that is. So the question is probably which kind of starter would adapt effectively to an otherwise unusual arrangement.

The answer? Probably a young one. Older starters are more married to their routines. “It’s very hard for me personally,” said Brandon McCarthy regarding the idea of starting a game in any other inning but the first. “My routine as a starter is fixed to the minute and a lot of guys are like that. It’s certainly not something impossible to deal with but could make a team nervous.”

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Travis Shaw had arguably the biggest hit of Milwaukee’s season yesterday. With his team on the verge of a crushing 10-inning loss, Shaw stroked a two-run, walk-off home run that helped keep the Brewers in the playoff hunt. A defeat wouldn’t have buried the surprise contenders, but it would have pushed them closer to the brink. They badly needed the win, and the Red Sox castoff provided it.

Even without Saturday’s heroics, Shaw has been a godsend for David Stearns and Co. Acquired over the offseason (along with a pair of promising prospects) for Tyler Thornburg, he’s contributed 31 long balls and an .877 OPS while solidifying the middle of the Milwaukee lineup. Last year in Boston, those numbers were 16 and .726.

The 27-year-old third baseman attributes his breakout to two factors: He’s playing every day, and he’s not stressing about things he can’t control.

“My mindset is a lot different,” Shaw told me earlier this week. “After what I went through last year, I needed to take a step back. There were some things I didn’t agree with, and there were some things I took the wrong way. I didn’t handle them very well

“I tried to play GM. I started reading into stuff — wondering why they’re doing this, why we’re doing that — and it ate at me. I worried about things I shouldn’t have worried about. In the second half, when I got to play, I felt like I had to get two or three hits to stay in the lineup. That didn’t bode well for my mental state, and it obviously didn’t work results-wise.” Read the rest of this entry »

Now that we’re close to the end of the season, you’re going to see a lot of talk about the bests in certain categories. There’s a major award that goes to each league’s best pitcher. There’s a major award that goes to each league’s best rookie. There’s a major award that goes to each league’s best player (sort of). And there are further awards that are supposed to go to the best hitters. It’s seldom easy to identify a given season’s best whatever, but at least you can limit yourself to one year of data. That makes things simple, relatively speaking.

It’s half as simple, or twice as complicated, if you double the number of years. But that’s something you have to do if you want to measure improvement. And this is something I’d like to spend a few minutes on — who, among major league baseball players, is the most improved hitter? There’s no great reason to focus on this, I guess, but there’s no great reason to focus on anything. Major improvement is good. Makes for a compelling story. Why not find the most improved hitter? All we need to do is agree on a method.

Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve written about a possible sea change in baseball over the last few years here, using phrases like “point of contact” and “attack angle” to better articulate the emergence of a Fly-Ball Revolution, itself another relatively new expression. Add those phrases to all the ones we’ve been compelled to learn for the benefit of Statcast alone — terms like “launch angle,” “exit velocity,” “spin rate,” etc. — and it’s obvious that our baseball dictionaries are getting an update on the fly.

Simply because we’re using a new lexicon, however, doesn’t mean we’re using it correctly — or, at the very least, that some of our assumptions couldn’t benefit from an update, as well.

With that in mind, I decided to examine some of the most notable and commonly used terms in this new language of hitting. With the help of the players themselves, perhaps we can better see what lies beneath each of them and attempt to reach something closer to a common understanding.

Fly-Ball Revolution

“I wish you wouldn’t call it the ‘fly-ball revolution,'” Daniel Murphy told me earlier in the year. “Coaches then think we’re talking about hitting the ball straight into the air. Call it the ‘high-line-drive revolution.'”

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The details have come together for Pitch Talks San Francisco this September 18th at The Independent, and it’s shaping up to be a fantastic event. Come see us at 8pm (doors at 7:30) and enjoy live commentary and interaction in a great venue.

We’ve got Giants General Manager Bobby Evans coming for a question and answer session with the crowd, directed by Giants Outsiders host Therese Viñal. That panel has been a highlight in the past and should deliver on its promise again. His take on a team at the crossroads should be very interesting.

The Giants panel is going to be simple, in an effort to let three stars shine. Viñal will return and grab a gab with Hank Schulman and Grant Brisbee, two strong voices in Giants coverage that have their own unique spin on things.

Finally, we’ve added a new sort of panel to the event this year in an effort to place baseball coverage and fandom in the larger context of popular sport in America. The Future of Sport panel will bring together Danny Leroux, an NBA salary cap expert that writes at The Athletic, John Middlekauff, a former NFL scout that does local radio and also pushes the pen at The Athletic, and also Jen Mac Ramos, who was most recently an Assistant General Manager for the independent league Sonoma Stompers.

I’ll make the trio into a quartet, and we’ll talk about the future of all sports, as predicted by media, cultural, and even medical trends. This panel should be a great way to help the Bay Area transition into a fall that won’t feature postseason baseball for once.

The season is winding down, and a turn to the future — whether it’s the Giants or all sports — should be just the ticket.

Speaking of tickets, get yours here. The event is 21+, and FanGraphs readers are welcome to come early for a meetup at 7:30pm. Tickets from the earlier, postponed Pitch Talks will be honored.

See you there!

A month ago, I wrote about Matt Chapman, the A’s developing star third baseman. The emergence of Chapman as a decent bat/great glove combination has dramatically changed the team’s infield, and despite only being in the big leagues for a few months, he’s pretty clearly the team’s best player right now.

But while Chapman’s emergence is the most positive development in Oakland this year, the team has added another Matt to the infield in the last month, and Matt Olson is now doing his best to make himself part of Oakland’s infield future as well.

Read the rest of this entry »