The Guardians rate as one of baseball’s bigger surprises. After finishing 76-86 last year — their worst record since 2012 — they’ve rebounded to go 57-33 thus far, and entered Wednesday with the AL’s best record. Their offense is much more potent than it was last year, and despite losing ace Shane Bieber for the season due to Tommy John surgery, they rank second in the league in run prevention at 3.87 runs per game.
While Cleveland’s staff owns the AL’s second-highest strikeout rate (24.2%), a good amount of credit for the team’s run prevention belongs to its defense. By my evaluation of a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metric (hereafter abbreviated as FRM, as it is on our stat pages) — the Guardians rate as the majors’ second-best defensive team thus far this season. The Yankees, who spent much of the first half atop the AL East before a 5-16 slide knocked them into second place, are the only team ahead of them.
On an individual level, even a full season of data isn’t enough to get the clearest picture of a player’s defense, and it’s not at all surprising that a 600-inning sample produces divergent values across the major metrics. After all, they’re based on differing methodologies that produce varying spreads in runs from top to bottom, spreads that owe something to what they don’t measure, as well as how much regression is built into their systems. Pitchers don’t have UZRs or FRVs, catchers don’t have UZRs, and DRS tends to produce the most extreme ratings. Still, within this aggregation I do think we get enough signal at this point in the season to make it worth checking in; I don’t proclaim this to be a bulletproof methodology so much as a good point of entry into a broad topic. Read the rest of this entry »
Dylan Cease was one of my interview targets when the San Diego Padres visited Fenway Park last weekend, and as part of my preparation I looked back at what I’d previously written about him here at FanGraphs. What I found were three articles partially derived from conversations I had with the right-hander when he was in the Chicago White Sox organization. One, from 2020, was on how he was trying to remove unwanted cut from his fastball. A second, from 2019, was on how he’d learned and developed his curveball. The third, from 2018, included Cease’s citing “body awareness and putting your hand and arm in the right spot” as keys to his executing pitches consistently.
And then there was something from November 2017 that didn’t include quotes from the hurler himself. Rather, it featured plaudits for his performances down on the farm. In a piece titled Broadcaster’s View: Who Were the Top Players in the Midwest League, Cease was mentioned several times. Chris Vosters, who was then calling games for the Great Lakes Loons and more recently was the voice of the NHL’s Chicago Blackhawks, described a high-90s fastball, a quality curveball, and an ability to mix his pitches well. Jesse Goldberg-Strassler (Lansing Lugnuts) and Dan Hasty (West Michigan Whitecaps) were others impressed by the then-promising prospect’s potential.
With that article in mind, I went off the beaten path and asked Cease about something that flies well under the radar of most fans: What is the relationship between players and broadcasters, particularly in the minor leagues? Read the rest of this entry »
Spencer Horwitz is hoping to show that what he did in the minors can be replicated in the majors, and so far, he’s off to a strong start. Displaying what my colleagues Eric Longenhagen and Tess Taruskin called “a patient, contact-driven approach at the plate,” the lefty-hitting Blue Jays utilityman has slashed .310/.430/.479 with an equal amount of walks and strikeouts over 86 plate appearances since being called up from Triple-A in early June. By comparison, his numbers down on the farm include a .307/.413/.471 slash line and roughly the same number of strikeouts and free passes over parts of five professional seasons. The extent to which Horwitz can continue having this level of success against major league pitching remains to be seen — last season’s 15-game cup of coffee yielded lesser results — but his skillset and upside are promising.
In the latest installment of our Talks Hitting series, the 26-year-old Horwitz discussed how he’s learned and evolved as a hitter over the years, from watching Manny Machado flicking the barrel to challenging himself with high velocity off of machines.
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David Laurila: Let’s start with one of my favorite ice-breaker questions in this series: Do you view hitting as more of an art or as more of a science?
Spencer Horwitz: “Oh, good question. I would say a blend of both. I’ve been blessed in a lot of ways with some hitter-ish things that I can’t explain, but I’ve also learned a lot through the science of hitting.”
Laurila: When did that learning start?
Horwitz: “I think it started when I was in high school, not really knowing what I was looking at, but watching really good hitters and trying to emulate them. Later, I was able to put some true numbers to the data that I was collecting in my mind.” Read the rest of this entry »
Takeya Nakamura is atypical among NPB hitters. The 40-year-old Seibu Lions infielder not only has 478 career home runs — ninth-most in Japan’s top league — he has fanned 2,118 times. Ingloriously, that is the highest strikeout total in Japanese baseball history.
How is the Adam Dunn-like slugger looked upon in a baseball culture that favors contact over power? I asked that question to Toronto Blue Jays southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, who played alongside Nakamura with the Seibu Lions for eight seasons.
“He’s a former teammate of mine and I really respect him as a player and a human being,” said Kikuchi through translator Yusuke Oshima. “There aren’t a lot of hitters with pop over there. I think those kind of players should be more respected in Japan, because it’s natural for home run hitters to strike out a lot. It’s a tradeoff. He’s said that he’s not worried about it. People should be more open-minded when it comes to those things.”
Kikuchi added that there aren’t a lot of hitters like Nakamura in Japan because “coaches over there tend to frown upon striking out a lot.” Moreover, the statistical categories that are valued most are hits, batting average, runs scored, and RBIs. Pitchers are viewed in a traditionally-similar manner. Much as it once was stateside, wins are what matter most. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Winning streaks don’t typically change the course of a team’s season. For example, the Dodgers are probably going to finish first in the NL West no matter how many games they win over the next week or so. The same would be true for the White Sox, just in reverse; they could rip off 10 straight wins and their outlook still would be about as bleak as it gets. And yet, in winning seven games in a row, the Astros have completely altered their trajectory for the rest of the season.
Incidentally, the last Astros loss came against those same abysmal White Sox on June 18, when Chicago rookie Jonathan Cannon was one out away from completing an eventual 2-0 shutout. After that game, Houston’s playoff odds fell to 29.3%, its nadir for the season. Since then, the Astros have won seven straight to pull within 3.5 games of the final AL Wild Card, and their odds to make the postseason are back above 50% for the first time since May 26. Now, entering this weekend’s series against the also-surging Mets at Citi Field, the Astros are just 4.5 games out of first place in the AL West.
It wouldn’t have been the least bit unreasonable to suggest prior to the winning streak that the Astros ought to be sellers at the deadline. Kyle Tucker had just been placed on the IL with a shin contusion that is expected to keep him out of the lineup until July. Cristian Javier and José Urquidy had just undergone Tommy John surgery, ending their seasons and making them non-factors for at least the first half of 2025. Houston had also just released veteran first baseman José Abreu, electing to eat the remainder of his disastrous contract that runs through next season rather than roster him any longer. This was a team that simply looked dead in the water, ravaged by injuries and underperformance and unable to get things going. Oh, how a week changes things.
No Kyle Tucker? No problem. All but four of the 14 batters the Astros have sent to the plate during the streak have posted a wRC+ above 100, with the quartet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Peña finally clicking at the same time. Impressively, the offense has caught fire despite homering just six times in the seven-game stretch; instead, Houston’s 20 doubles have kept the line moving.
In addition to the aforementioned Javier and Urquidy, the Astros also have been without Justin Verlander during this stretch, after they placed him on the IL with neck discomfort the day before their winning streak began. Instead, they’ve been forced to lean on a group of mostly unheralded pitchers, and boy have those arms delivered. Hunter Brown has turned his season around by revamping his pitch mix (Robert Orr and Ben Zeidman have a great look at it over at Baseball Prospectus), and Spencer Arrighetti just had the best start of his young career; he allowed three hits and no walks while striking out 10 across seven scoreless innings in Wednesday night’s 7-1 win over the Rockies. Ronel Blanco — Houston’s only pitcher who’s survived the injury bug this year — just keeps rolling right along and looks to be in prime position to make the All-Star team in his first full season, at age 30!
Now that the Astros are firmly on the buy side ahead of the deadline, barring something catastrophic to negate their winning streak over the course of the next month, how will they approach things?
Even with Javier, Urquidy, and J.P. France all out for the year, the Astros have rotation help on the way. Verlander and Luis García are expected back soon, with Lance McCullers Jr. not far behind and rookie Jake Bloss able to help out once he too is off the injured list. Verlander, Valdez, Blanco, McCullers Jr., and García would make for a strong playoff rotation (especially because Arrighetti, Bloss, and Brown will be in reserve). But, understanding that they’ve got other positions of issue, namely first base, why not acquire two Birds with one trade? Yes, I’m saying they should trade with the Blue Jays.
Toronto is on the other side of the coin, with its playoff odds down to 5.1% entering Thursday’s drubbing of the Yankees. Perhaps no team this season has been as disappointing as the Jays, whose best course of action looks like selling and rebuilding for the future.
Ideally, the Astros would take advantage of Toronto’s unexpected woes by trading for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who is under club control through the end of next season, while also adding a starting pitcher, though it’s unclear how willing the Blue Jays would be to deal Guerrero. Heck, his trade value alone feels extremely unclear: He’s having a very good year (133 wRC+) but still has infuriating batted ball tendencies, with a grounder rate above 50% and just 10 home runs. Teams will surely line up to acquire Guerrero if he were made available in the hopes that they can optimize his contact. The Astros especially would be drawn in by the thought of Vladito taking aim at the Crawford Boxes, thus giving them their best power threat at first base since Yuli Gurriel clubbed 31 homers in 2019 with the help of the juiced ball.
If we presuppose that the Blue Jays are, in fact, willing to trade Guerrero and retool for 2026 and beyond, knowing he could earn close to $30 million next season in his final year of arbitration, the biggest hangup would be agreeing on a price that the Astros would be comfortable paying, especially considering the state of their farm system. Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice described their farm as “below average on impact and an average one in terms of depth.” But when you consider the uncertainty surrounding Toronto’s top two prospects — Ricky Tiedemann, who hasn’t been able to stay on the field consistently, and Orelvis Martinez, who was just suspended 80 games for PED usage, halting his development — intriguing, higher-floor prospects just might be what the Jays are seeking. Among the players that Houston could offer are Bloss, Jacob Melton, and Joey Loperfido, who would be left without a spot if the Astros were to add Guerrero.
It’d be valid for the Astros to balk at that price, but what if they took on a steady-if-unspectacular starter like Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, or José Berríos along with Guerrero to tamp down the prospect cost? All three pitchers are good, but also on the wrong side of 30. If the Jays are going the path of retooling anyway, it may behoove them to remove a highly paid starter from their payroll because he probably won’t be around to make an impact on the next good Toronto team anyway. Sure, adding one of these starters would likely push Houston’s payroll to unforeseen heights, but the Astros should be game to take on such a contract if it means getting another solid starter without giving up as much in prospect value.
The Astros are having a weird season and may have a weird future as they move away from the risk-averse front offices of Jeff Luhnow and James Click. So they might as well lean fully into it and take some risky shots that could reap them major rewards.
You’re surely familiar with the trope of aging sluggers who sell out for pull-side power because they can’t catch up to the fastball like they used to. They need to start gearing up to swing earlier, forcing them to guess what pitch is coming instead of reacting to what they see. They hope that extra homers will offset the extra whiffs that come when they get fooled by slower stuff. The interesting thing about this trope is that its strategy is very similar to the one that swept through the entire baseball world roughly 10 years ago. Justin Turner was a leading light of the launch angle revolution, the movement that emphasized getting on plane early, attacking the ball out front, and pulling it in the air. Essentially, that movement turned the last refuge of an aging slugger into the mainstream way of hitting. At 39, Turner is now an aging slugger himself, with a wRC+ that has fallen in each season since 2020. His swing is already optimized, and now that he’s largely relegated to designated hitter, his 106 wRC+ doesn’t quite cut it.
A cursory look at his stats might tell you that Turner’s been unlucky this season. After all, he’s running his highest xwOBA since 2021 and his highest walk rate since 2018. Meanwhile, his BABIP is the lowest it’s been since 2011, and his wOBA is nearly 30 points below his xwOBA. Unlucky, right? Here’s the problem: Turner’s 30.6% hard-hit rate and 87.1-mph average exit velocity are not just career lows, they’re miles beneath his career averages of 39.6% and 89.8 mph. Turner’s popup rate has also ticked up. If your quality of contact gets drastically worse, luck probably isn’t the thing that’s driving down your BABIP. But there’s still that pesky xwOBA to worry about. Why hasn’t it plummeted along with Turner’s barrel rate? Read the rest of this entry »
Bo Bichette is a ton of fun to watch at the plate, and that’s especially the case in two-strike counts. He takes on the old school approach of physically altering his swing to avoid striking out. There is something aesthetically pleasing about a player who refuses to strike out; it’s admirable, even. It can also be rewarding.
Bichette has used a no-stride two-strike approach his entire career, but back in 2022, he started standing a bit taller, with his weight pre-shifted into his rear hip to go along with his no-stride load. In 2021, his .212 wOBA with two strikes was well behind the league-wide mark of .236. As a hitter with an above-average hit tool and a knack for making good contact on pitches off the plate, that performance simply wasn’t good enough. Indeed, it’s the exact sort of thing that would force most hitters to try something else, which is what Bichette did. While his wOBA and xwOBA in two-strike counts showed no tangible improvement, 2022 was (and still is) his best full season by wRC+ (130). Whatever the results were, Bichette’s overall offensive game was thriving, so instead of reverting back to the more crouched setup, he built upon his new two-strike stance to improve it.
In 2023, Bichette’s .233 two-strike wOBA was in line with the league average (.232), while his .250 xwOBA was .018 points higher than league average. He decreased his whiff rate with two strikes by about four percentage points from 2022, and his strikeout rate dropped three percentage points as a result. That’s notable, of course, but remember: More contact isn’t always better for a chase-prone player like Bichette, as a batter’s quality of contact on pitches outside the zone is typically worse than on those over the plate. The key here is that Bichette’s reduction in whiffs came with better contact; last year he had the best xwOBACON with two strikes (.389) of his career. Read the rest of this entry »
Anyone who saw the lineup that the Blue Jays fielded on Sunday against the Pirates was treated to a relatively unfamiliar sight: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. starting at third base for the first time since his 2019 rookie season, and playing the position in a regular season game for the first time since ’22. Designed to squeeze an extra bat into the lineup, the move helped the Blue Jays to a victory. But while they may continue the experiment here and there, they have bigger problems to solve if they’re going to climb back into contention.
Starting Guerrero at third base had been an option for which the Blue Jays had been preparing for a few weeks. For the occasion, manager John Schneider gave Justin Turner the start at first base, with Daniel Vogelbach serving as the designated hitter. The latter went 2-for-4 on Sunday, and capped a three-run fifth-inning rally with a double off Pirates righty Quinn Priester, with Guerrero, who had singled in a run, scoring from first base to give Toronto a 4-3 lead. With Blue Jays starter Chris Bassitt and four relievers generating just nine ground balls while striking out 13, Guerrero didn’t have to make a play in the field until the seventh inning; he handled his two chances perfectly, the second of which featured an impressive spin move while he was shifted to where the shortstop would usually play:
Schneider did not get a similarly positive return when he used the same configuration on Tuesday night. Vogelbach went 0-for-3 and the Blue Jays fell behind 4-0 in the third; they were down 10-1 by the time Guerrero made his two assists, in the eighth and ninth innings. Read the rest of this entry »
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
The Blue Jays haven’t yet crashed into a windowpane, never to recover, but 23-26 certainly isn’t what was expected of them entering the season. Before the season, our playoff odds gave them 49% chance to make the postseason. Toronto’s odds peaked at 57.9% on April 22, but since then, the team has fallen off. As of this morning, the Blue Jays have a 24.0% probability to make the playoffs. That leaves them with some serious decisions to make over the next two or so months before the July 30 deadline. Considering their current situation, let’s take a look at their options if they choose not to bolster their big league roster by the end of July.
Stand Pat
This is the most straightforward option: Don’t do anything and hope for some improvements. Every hitter other than Daulton Varsho, Davis Schneider, and Danny Jansen has underperformed this year, and maybe the Blue Jays can stay in the hunt long enough for their bats to catch fire. The organization may determine this is its best option simply because their players probably would have less trade value while they are playing below expectations. If the return package isn’t what the Blue Jays want, why not stay they course?
Only Sell The Rentals
The Blue Jays have a whole bunch of free agents after the 2025 season. And while they could decide to trade those guys (more on this later), Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins may find it best to hold on to them and go for one last run next season. But that doesn’t take the Blue Jays out of the action at the deadline; they have several enticing players on expiring contracts to dangle to contenders.
Justin Turner has slumped horribly recently — entering last night’s game, his wRC+ in May was -21, after 152 in March/April, bringing his seasonal wRC+ down to 96 — but if he can rebound to being solidly above average, contenders would be happy to acquire his righty bat and postseason experience. The Twins, Rangers, and Rays all have gotten wRC+ values below 80 from their designated hitters, and Turner can also fill in at third base, second base, and first.
Yimi García has been one of baseball’s best relievers this season, allowing just one run in 19 innings. He’s also struck out 35% of opponents, and his xERA (1.44) and FIP (2.24) both back up his solid performance. He would make any contender’s bullpen better, and he’s always bounced around between roles, so he doesn’t have to be pigeonholed into a particular inning or situation. It is worth noting that García has never been this good before, and as Ben Clemens wrote in his column yesterday, “you can’t trade your newfound reliever for a shiny prospect,” so it’s unlikely that García alone would net the Blue Jays a strong return package. That said, if Toronto is out of the race, it might as well get something for a 33-year-old reliever who might not be with the team next year anyway.
Lefty Yusei Kikuchi is rather quietly pitching the best he ever has in the majors, with a 2.64 ERA across 10 starts and a career-low walk rate of 5.5%. Teams always need starting pitching, and his above-average rate of inducing grounders and popups will play anywhere.
Rounding out this group is Jansen, who on a rate basis has hit better than any other catcher in baseball, with a 191 wRC+ in 82 trips to the plate entering last night’s game. His injury history should scare teams a little bit; he’s never had more than 384 plate appearances in a season, and that was back in 2019. It’s also worth noting, as our associate editor Matt Martell wrote last year for the New York Times, that teams rarely trade for a catcher during the season because of the particular challenges that come with the position. Even so, I think Jansen is well-suited for the role Mitch Garver held last year with the Rangers: catching sometimes but also getting plenty of plate appearances at DH to make sure his bat stays in the lineup.
Defensive whiz Kevin Kiermaier, righty changeup specialist Trevor Richards, and lefty power bat Daniel Vogelbach round out the group of seven Blue Jays who get to fly freely at the end of the season.
Blow It Up
OK, but what if the Jays do decide to more or less tear it down? After all, it is the struggling big three hitters — Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and George Springer — who deserve at least a decent chunk of the blame for Toronto’s underperformance. The team didn’t even get a homer from a cleanup hitter until Bichette hit one on Wednesday — 48 games into the season!
I don’t think the Blue Jays would go so far as to trade Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt, or José Berríos, since Berríos is the only one pitching particularly well this year and his opt out after 2026 may complicate things too much to work out a trade, but the rest of that group of players with club control beyond this season could be on the block, headlined by Guerrero Jr. and Bichette.
Vladdy continues to tantalize with his bullet home runs (though he has only five this year) and massive exit velocity, but as we move further and further away from it, his MVP-caliber 2021 campaign looks more like an outlier than a sign of things to come, as it surely appeared to be in its immediate aftermath. Still, he’s in just his age-25 season, and it’s absolutely plausible that another team could bring out the best in him. I’m puzzled trying to figure out what he’d bring back in a trade, since he’s making $19.9 million this year and will probably be up around $25 million next year, but let’s not overthink things. He’s Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and if his suitors aren’t going to give up at least one top 100 prospect for him, the Blue Jays should tell them to get lost.
Bichette is more or less the same guy at the end of every season, with a wRC+ between 120 and 130 in each of the last four years; over the last three, he’s hit 29, 24, and 20 home runs, respectively. His fielding is always below average (but not terrible), and the only skill that’s on the decline is his base-stealing, with 25 stolen bases in 2021 followed by 13 in ’22 and just five last season, though he already has four this year. On the surface, the man is a metronome, but things get … weird … under the hood. Last year, his first-half wRC+ was 132, followed by 109 in the second half. The year prior, it was just 106 in the first half before he surged to 164 after the All-Star break. That streakiness is why I’m really not concerned about his performance thus far this year; the dude is bound to get hot at some point! It would be foolish of teams to just assume things will even out, but they shouldn’t read too much into his slow start, either. A contending team in need of a shortstop this year, such as the Giants or Guardians, would certainly be interested.
The Blue Jays would get far more modest returns for right-handed closer Jordan Romano, righty relievers Chad Green and Erik Swanson, lefty relievers Tim Mayza and Génesis Cabrera, and utilitymen Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Cavan Biggio, but they could be used as an add-on piece to sweeten the return in a trade for one of Toronto’s top players or to acquire prospect depth in a separate deal. After all, the Blue Jays’ farm system has just two Top 100 Prospects: lefty pitcher Ricky Tiedemann and infielder Orelvis Martinez.
I’m not here to advocate for Toronto to take any particular path; I’m just laying out the options. The worst plan for the Blue Jays would be not having one.
Weekend Windup
Here are some things to keep an eye on as we head into the long Memorial Day weekend:
• Ketel Marte looks to extend his 21-game hitting streak — the longest in the majors this season — when the Diamondbacks begin a three-game set at home tonight against the Marlins. Lefty Braxton Garrett gets the start for Miami, which bodes well for Marte, who is hitting .347 against lefties this year.
• The Cubs and Cardinals will finally meet for the first time this year, opening a three-game set tonight at Busch Stadium. The Cardinals have looked cooked for most of the first quarter of the season, but they enter the weekend just five games out of first place in the NL Central after winning eight of their last 10 games — including being the first team to sweep the Orioles in the regular season since Adley Rutschman came up two years ago.
• Juan Soto returns to San Diego for the first time since the Padres traded him to the Yankees last December, and comes back to town on fire. Over his last six games, Soto is 9-for-23 (.391) with four home runs and seven RBIs. After a mini-slump dropped his average to .301 and his OPS to .917, those numbers are back to .312 and .972, respectively. He’ll be flanked in the lineup as usual by Anthony Volpe, who’s got a 16-game hitting streak, and Aaron Judge, who homered yet again on Thursday for his 15th of the season.
• Once his 10-game suspension for pitching with “sticky stuff” is over, Ronel Blanco is set to return on Sunday against the A’s. While he asserted the substance he got caught using was just rosin mixed with sweat, he’ll surely be under increased scrutiny. Blanco, who has a 2.09 ERA in eight starts so far in 2024, was the first pitcher to be suspended for foreign substances this season after four were suspended last year.
• Nick Lodolo is aiming to return to the Reds rotation on Monday, and boy could they use him. The Reds have floundered to a 4-16 record in their last 20 games, and Lodolo had a 3.34 ERA and 2.90 FIP in six starts before hitting the IL with a groin injury. That was his second IL stint this year, after he missed the season’s first couple weeks while recovering from the leg fracture that cost him most of 2023.
During spring training, I asked 10 current big leaguers how they followed the game growing up, and how that has changed since they began playing professionally. As expected, all of them noted significant differences. No longer fans following their favorite teams and players, they consume baseball in a distinctly different way, even as the mediums through which they take in the game remain much the same.
Following up on that March 8 piece, I asked a new subset of baseball professionals much the same question. Four are former players who are now managing, while two are former players who are now broadcast analysts. In each case, how they consume the game has evolved not once, but twice.
Here is what they had to say. Their answers have been edited and condensed for clarity.
“For me, it’s always been similar. That maybe sounds funny, but whether it was as a fan, player, coach, or manager, I’ve always been interested in the strategy of the game. Being a catcher, you kind of look at a game that way naturally. What most fans want to see is their favorite players — you want them to hit home runs, things like that — and then as a manager, you’re always wondering what strings another manager might pull, or at least try to pull. So, it’s similar for me, but at the same time obviously a little different. Read the rest of this entry »
