Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the USA World Baseball Classic roster’s so-so starting pitching, the difficulty of recruiting top pitchers for the tournament, and Japan’s staff, Meg’s college baseball weekend and Juan Soto sighting, Orioles owner John Angelos’s latest comments, and MLB’s new Economic Reform Committee, plus a Stat Blast (31:56) about the greatest players who were never the best player on their team and an observation about the spread of projected win totals in the AL and NL. Then they continue their 2023 season preview series by discussing the Milwaukee Brewers (41:34) with Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and the Miami Marlins (1:21:34) with Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald, plus Past Blasts from 1971 (1:58:43) and a postscript (2:05:13).

Audio intro: Willie Nelson, “Second Fiddle”
Audio interstitial 1: Slade, “Don’t Blame Me”
Audio interstitial 2: Sci-Fi Soldier, “I Am in Miami”
Audio outro: Camera Obscura, “The False Contender”

Link to USA WBC roster
Link to DR roster breakdown
Link to Japan roster breakdown
Link to SP projections
Link to Rosenthal on recruiting pitching
Link to L.A. Times on WBC insurance
Link to Ben on WBC injuries
Link to Wash U on WBC injuries
Link to draft prospect rankings
Link to unrecognized Greinke
Link to Angelos comments
Link to Middleton comments
Link to Drellich on new committee
Link to Stat Blast spreadsheet
Link to FG playoff odds
Link to Brewers offseason tracker
Link to Brewers depth chart
Link to Todd’s spring training preview
Link to Todd’s author archive
Link to Burnes comments
Link to Jay Jaffe on Burns
Link to Burnes’s 2022 splits
Link to team payroll rankings
Link to Marlins offseason tracker
Link to Marlins depth chart
Link to Jordan on Pérez and Alcantara
Link to Jordan’s author archive
Link to “Marlins Will Soar”
Link to MLBTR on De La Cruz
Link to MLB.com on De La Cruz
Link to 1971 article source
Link to David Lewis’s Twitter
Link to David Lewis’s Substack
Link to sportslogos site
Link to bannermark article
Link to second bannermark article
Link to third bannermark article
Link to fourth bannermark article
Link to fifth bannermark article
Link to sixth bannermark article
Link to 1984 MVP trophy
Link to Phillies redesign logo
Link to ’76 centennial logo
Link to more on centennial logo
Link to info on Pepsi logo
Link to FG’s LF projections
Link to FG on Grossman signing
Link to FG’s 2B projections
Link to Randy Johnson comment
Link to Henry Q&A
Link to other Henry Q&A
Link to info on NESN edits
Link to Werner on booing
Link to Rosenthal on arbitration

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Arbitration is by definition a contentious process, but even so, it’s difficult to recall a recent case that left a star player so vocal about the damage done to his relationship with his team like that of Corbin Burnes. Last week, the Brewers went to trial with the 2021 NL Cy Young winner over a difference of just under $750,000 and prevailed, after which Burnes sounded off over the team’s conduct during the hearing. In all likelihood, this marks the beginning of the end of his time in Milwaukee; it’s difficult to imagine him agreeing to any kind of deal that would delay his free agency after what just transpired.

The 28-year-old Burnes has been the majors’ most valuable pitcher over the past three seasons according to our version of WAR:

Among pitchers with at least 300 innings in that span, Burnes also owns the lowest FIP and K-BB% (26.9%, virtually tied with Scherzer), and is second in strikeout rate and ERA (again in a virtual tie with Scherzer). It’s been a pretty good run, to say the least. That said, his 2022 campaign couldn’t quite live up to the high standards he set in 2021, as his strikeout rate receded and his home run rate nearly tripled:

Even so, Burnes led the NL in strikeouts (243) and starts (33) and placed third in K-BB%, fourth in innings, fifth in WAR, eighth in FIP and 10th in ERA. He made the NL All-Star team for the second season in a row and received Cy Young votes for the third time, finishing seventh; one voter had him as high as second, two more in third, and a total of 12 (out of 30) considered him among the league’s top five. Read the rest of this entry »

Josh Barfield had a relatively short big league career. Now the farm director for the Arizona Diamondbacks, the 40-year-old son of 1980s outfielder Jesse Barfield played for the San Diego Padres in 2006, and for the Cleveland Indians from 2007-2009. I asked the erstwhile infielder whom he considers the most talented of his former teammates.

“I think I’d have to say Grady Sizemore,” replied Barfield. “He was ridiculously talented. He could do just about everything on the field. Probably the best player overall — the best career — was Mike Piazza, but for pure talent it would be Grady.”

Sizemore debuted with Cleveland and accumulated 27.3 WAR — — only Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, and Alex Rodriguez had more — from 2005-2008 in his age 22-25 seasons. He made three All-Star teams, won two Gold Gloves, and logged a 129 wRC+ with 107 home runs and 115 stolen bases over that four-year-stretch. A string of injuries followed, torpedoing what might have been a brilliant career. When all was said and done, Sizemore had just 29.7 WAR.

Other former teammates who stand out for Barfield were Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Cameron, and Victor Martinez, the last of whom he called the most gifted hitter of the group. Read the rest of this entry »

Third basemen have been underrepresented within the Hall of Fame since the institution’s inception, but one of the greats finally gained entry last week, when the BBWAA elected Scott Rolen in his sixth year of eligibility. Four days before the Hall called Rolen’s name, the baseball world lost another great third baseman when Sal Bando died at the age of 78 due to cancer. With better luck and timing, Bando might have been enshrined as well, with his passing felt far beyond Oakland and Milwaukee, the two cities where he spent his 16-year major league career.

Plenty of onlookers and even some voters had a hard time wrapping their heads around the election of Rolen, a great two-way third baseman whose all-around excellence — power, patience, elite defense, good baserunning — and stardom for two Cardinals pennant winners (one a champion) somehow wasn’t enough for those who expected him to measure up to Mike Schmidt, his predecessor in Philadelphia. Or Chipper Jones, his longer-lasting contemporary. Or… Don Mattingly or even Mark Grace because, uh, reasons. To them the notion of Bando as a Hall of Famer might seem even more unthinkable, but then they’d merely have a lot in common with the crusty scribes of four or five decades ago who helped to give Hall voting its bad name.

Bando spent 16 years in the majors (1966-81) with the A’s and Brewers, making four All-Star teams while most notably serving as the team captain and regular third baseman for an Oakland powerhouse that won five straight AL West titles from 1971-75 and three straight World Series from ’72 to ’74. An intense competitor with a high baseball IQ and a quiet lead-by-example style, he didn’t have quite the popularity or flair of teammates Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter, or Vida Blue, but within the green-and-gold’s three-ring circus, he had those stars’ respect. “Sal Bando was the godfather. Capo di capo. Boss of all bosses on the Oakland A’s,” wrote Jackson in his 1984 autobiography. “We all had our roles, we all contributed, but Sal was the leader and everyone knew it.” Read the rest of this entry »

For the past five seasons, Brian Anderson has been one of the few steady presences on the Marlins. With a long list of big names leaving town semi-regularly, one of the only things fans in Miami could count on was seeing Anderson’s name every day somewhere in the middle of Don Mattingly’s lineup card. But after starting just 155 games over the past two seasons and suffering numerous injuries, Miami’s front office decided to let him go too, non-tendering him into free agency. And now he is taking his talents to Milwaukee, inking a one-year deal with the Brewers worth $3.5 million.

From 2018 to ’20, Anderson was a consistently above-average performer, with a 115 wRC+ and 7.3 WAR across 341 games. He did basically everything at a solid or better level: he drew his fair share of walks (and was plunked a non-insignificant number of times), his strikeouts weren’t a problem, and while his plus raw power didn’t fully actualize due to a high groundball rate and the unforgiving dimensions of his home ballpark, he still slugged 44 homers during that stretch. He basically defined what it meant to have 50 or 55 grades on every offensive skill, making him successful all around.

After an uneven 2021 season and a left shoulder injury that required offseason surgery, Anderson’s production seemed to rebound at the beginning of 2022. He missed most of June with a back issue but had a very solid 117 wRC+ through the All-Star break, right in line with his best seasons. But on July 23, Anderson dove for a ground ball and landed on his left shoulder — his third left shoulder injury in a little over a year, and one that landed him on the IL for three weeks. After returning, his numbers fell significantly below his career norms, as he slashed just .188/.276/.318 in 174 plate appearances the rest of the way. This prolonged slump dropped his season wRC+ to 90, setting a career low for the second consecutive year. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2023 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

J.J. Hardy was one of a handful of high draft picks who helped to resuscitate the Brewers’ competitive fortunes in the first decade of the new millennium. Though his on-base skills were comparatively limited during an era when they became so in vogue in the wake of Moneyball’s popularity, his combination of power, a strong and accurate arm, and good range made him a valuable player if not a star. While he made just two All-Star teams, he won three Gold Gloves and had half a dozen seasons in the 3-4 WAR range.

Alas, even during his time in the minors, Hardy was particularly susceptible to injuries, and while he toughed some of them out — often to the detriment of his offense — and showed resilience in bouncing back, he averaged just 120 games a year over his 13-year career (2005-17). Like so many Brewers even during the best of times, he was traded as he became more expensive. In all, he helped three different teams to the playoffs a total of five times, and played a key role in ending the Orioles’ long postseason drought just as he had with the Brewers.

James Jerry Hardy was born on August 19, 1982 in Tucson, Arizona, the second child of athletic parents who had starred at the University of Arizona. His father Mark Hardy was a professional tennis player who ranked as high as no. 270 in the world, while his mother Susie Shinn Hardy was a top amateur golfer who was a collegiate rival of future LPGA legends Nancy Lopez and Beth Daniel. While J.J. tried both of his parents’ sports, he gravitated to baseball, applying the work ethic picked up from his parents. “I’d hit golf balls until my hands were blistered and bleeding,” Susie told the Baltimore Sun in 2015. “That drive to get better? I think [J.J.] got that from me. He was the best player on almost every team he played for and, if he wasn’t, he’d work hard until he was.” Read the rest of this entry »

Along with Johnny Evers and Joe Tinker — they of Tinker-to-Evers-to-Chance fame — Alan Trammell and Lou Whitaker are the most-storied double-play combination in baseball history. As well they should be. The Detroit Tigers duo played more games together (1,918) than any middle-infield duo in history. Moreover, they combined for 11 All-Star appearances, seven Gold Gloves, seven Silver Sluggers, and they won a World Series together. Both are icons for a franchise that has played in the American League since 1901.

Tinker and Evans, who played together with the Chicago Cubs from 1902-1912, are both in the Hall of Fame. So is Trammell. Meanwhile — this for reasons best explained as inexplicable — Whitaker is not. His exclusion stands as one of Cooperstown’s most glaring omissions.

Whitaker has more WAR and a higher JAWS score than a number of Hall of Fame second basemen, but that can be a debate for another day. For now, let’s focus on how he compares to Evers.

Whitaker: 2,369 hits, 244 home runs, 118 wRC+, 68.1 WAR.
Evers: 1,659 hits, 12 home runs, 109 wRC+, 49.0 WAR.

While Evers’s numbers are anything but great, it should be noted that he won an MVP award and played for three World Series-winning teams (the Cubs twice and the Boston Braves once). That said, it’s highly unlikely that he would be in the Hall of Fame were he not part of a legendary double-play combination (he and Tinker were Old-Timers-Committee selections in the same year). How they became legendary is, of course, a big part of the story. The poem penned in 1910 by sportswriter Franklin Pierce Adams reads: Read the rest of this entry »

When the ball dropped at midnight and 2022 turned into 2023, 29 of the 30 major league teams had signed at least one free agent, from the Mariners spending $1.2 million on Trevor Gott to the Mets agreeing to terms with seemingly every star player on the market. Even the penny-pinching Marlins brought in Jean Segura, and the A’s committed a respectable $34 million to four solid role players. Now, a few days into the new year, team no. 30 has joined the fray: the Brewers are bringing back left-handed pitcher Wade Miley on a one-year contract that will pay him $3.5 million with a $10 million mutual option for ’24 (with a $1 million buyout) and another $1.5 million in playing time incentives. In total, that guarantees him $4.5 million this season.

Formerly an innings eater who completed at least 190 frames every year from 2012 to ’15 with a 98 ERA-, Miley has battled injuries in each of 2018, ’20, and ’22. Last season, he was limited to just nine appearances with the Cubs as he dealt with elbow and shoulder issues. With that in mind, I’ll be looking at his performance in a limited 2022 campaign in conjunction with his full ’21 season, where he barely qualified for the leaderboards with 163 innings pitched. His stats were very similar in those two samples; he ran an ERA in the low-threes with far less inspiring peripherals and near equal numbers in the walk and strikeout departments. Read the rest of this entry »

For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please consult this year’s introduction and MLB’s glossary entry. The team order is selected by lot, and the next team up is the Milwaukee Brewers.

Batters

The nice thing about the Brewers is that when you look at their depth chart, they’re not truly awful anywhere. That’s easier said than done; the worst Brewers generally project better than even the worst Astros or Dodgers. This is a very solidly built team that has a pretty high floor, probably higher than a year ago when we gathered for this exercise. What they’re missing on the offense is just a bit of pizzaz. I think we’re at the point where we have to accept that Christian Yelich is Just a Guy, which leaves the Brewers sorely missing a superstar bat. Everyone is at least OK and some are pretty good, but that big bat (or lack thereof) is what separates the Brewers from teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Braves, and maybe the Mets when we look at the upcoming preseason projections.

If you glance at the depth chart, you might think that it’s Garrett Mitchell who ZiPS is big on, but it’s actually Sal Frelick, who ZiPS sees as having more upside. ZiPS thinks his contact skills will play in the majors fairly quickly, his long-term upside in terms of batting average is quite high, and he has just enough power to make him really interesting. ZiPS isn’t quite as excited about Brice Turang, but does seem him as being at least a passable starter at second, though a downgrade from Kolten Wong. Read the rest of this entry »

Tyler Black could follow in his father’s footsteps, but that’s not the path he’s pursuing. What the 22-year-old Toronto native wants to do is to play in the big leagues — a goal that is very much within his reach. Drafted 33rd overall in 2019 out of Wright State University, Black is an on-base machine who ranks No. 12 on our recently-released Milwaukee Brewers Top Prospects list.

The road not being taken is related to the youngster’s dream. His father is former TSN and CTV broadcaster Rod Black, whose three-plus decades behind the microphone had him calling games in a variety of sports, including baseball (one of his on-air partners was World Series hero Joe Carter). I asked the infielder/outfielder if he ever envisions himself describing the action on a diamond, court, or even a sheet of ice.

“Maybe when I’m done playing,” Black told me during his stint in the Arizona Fall League. “I’ve never really thought about it seriously, but I can say that it was definitely great growing up around sports. My dad used to announce Blue Jays games, Toronto Raptors games — pretty much everything — so I was always around ballparks, and around athletes. That kind of put me into the game.”

Legendary Blue Jays broadcaster Jerry Howarth, who was alongside Tom Cheek when the latter emoted “Touch ’Em All Joe!” — a moment that will forever live in Canadian baseball lore — is among those who reached out after Rod Black’s son was drafted by the Brewers. Read the rest of this entry »