I have a secret to tell, one that might surprise you. I think that baseball analysis is too complex. I can’t keep track of it all. There are too many numbers, too many ways to approach things, too many parts of the game that might be good in one context, bad in another, and neutral in a third. My whole job is to analyze baseball, and yet I find myself drowning in data more often than controlling it. My solution is to simplify. I look for players’ superpowers – carrying tools, in baseball parlance. Aaron Judge is power personified, with the rest of his game building off of that. José Ramírez is a bat control genius. Mookie Betts is the most coordinated man alive. Luis Arraez could hit soft line drives the other way in his sleep. These shortcuts help me think about how the rest of a player’s game fits in. But I have a problem: I’m trying to analyze Jackson Chourio, and I can’t figure out what his superpower is.

You might think it’s his speed. You wouldn’t be wrong, exactly. He’s one of the fastest players in baseball, and he uses that to his advantage all over the place. He’s an excellent baserunner and defender. He eats up ground in the outfield in huge loping strides, the kind of quick you only notice after the fact. I watch him and think he’s an above-average center fielder. The Brewers have only played him in the corners this year, since they’re overrun with excellent defensive outfielders and Chourio has the least experience, but he’s so good that if he ends up in a corner, he might be peak Jason Heyward there.

I guess we could stop the article there, but speed isn’t really a superpower for many great players. Sure, Bobby Witt Jr. and Elly De La Cruz are the current kings of sprint speed, but you don’t look at their games and say, “Oh, the main thing about them is that they’re fast.” That’s the territory of Billy Hamilton or Victor Scott II, and those guys just aren’t stars in the way that I think Chourio will be. I’m looking for an offensive weapon that makes everything work for him, one that explains how he’s hitting major league pitching at age 20. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite trading ace Corbin Burnes, losing two members of their planned starting five to Tommy John surgery and then two others to injuries that have cost them more than half a season, the Brewers are riding high atop the NL Central, holding a seven-game lead over the Cardinals and Pirates entering the morning of the trade deadline. They’ve already used a club-record 16 starters this year, including righty Aaron Civale, whom they acquired from the Rays earlier this month. On Monday they added the man who’ll likely be no. 17, righty Frankie Montas, whom they acquired from the Reds in a rare intradivisional swap in exchange for outfielder Joey Wiemer and righty reliever Jakob Junis.

Beyond the fact that Montas was healthy enough for the Brewers to move forward with the deal — his 15-day stint on the injured list earlier this year was for a forearm contusion caused by a line drive — and can take the ball every five or six days, it’s not clear yet what the Brewers see in the 31-year-old righty. His performance has fallen off considerably since he finished sixth in the AL Cy Young voting in 2021 on the strength of a 3.37 ERA, 207 strikeouts, and 4.0 WAR for the A’s. Dealt to the Yankees as part of a six-player trade on August 1, 2022, he pitched poorly down the stretch before being sidelined by shoulder inflammation, and after undergoing arthroscopic shoulder surgery in February 2023, was limited to a 1.1-inning cameo in last season’s penultimate game.

When Montas hit free agency, the Reds took a flier, signing him for a $16 million guarantee in December, with a $14 million salary this year, a $2 million buyout on a $20 million mutual option for 2025, and some small performance and award bonuses tacked on as well. There are no bad one-year deals, it is often said, but this one for Montas — with his 5.01 ERA and 4.91 FIP in 93.1 innings — rates as a disappointment. Play the arbitrary endpoint game, and you can find a pretty decent stretch: From May 29 through July 4, in seven starts totaling 36.1 innings, he posted a 3.72 ERA and 4.20 FIP. But since then, he’s been lit for 16 runs in 16 innings over three starts. Only twice all season has he put together back-to-back quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs). Read the rest of this entry »

We’re barreling toward the trade deadline, which means it’s time for teams to decide if they’re in, out, or Tampa Bay. After picking which of those categories they fit into, the next move is obvious. In? Trade for a reliever. Out? Trade away your relievers. Tampa Bay? Make 10 moves, with more moving parts than you can possibly imagine. All of those types were on display this weekend, so let’s round up some reliever trades.

The Brewers and Rockies got the party started with a simple swap: Nick Mears to the Brewers, Bradley Blalock and Yujanyer Herrera to the Rockies. This one is basically what you’d expect from a deadline deal. The Brewers need relief help; they have nine pitchers on the IL, and while they just got Devin Williams back, they lost Bryan Hudson to injury earlier this week. It’s been an uphill battle to fill innings in Milwaukee this year. Mears slots right into the middle of the bullpen, helping to lengthen the number of innings the Brewers can cover with high octane arms. The Brewers have the fewest innings pitched by starters this year, so that depth really matters.
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I updated the Top 100 Prospects list today. This post goes through the pitchers and why they stack the way they do. Here’s a link directly to the list, and here’s a link to the post with a little more detail regarding farm system and prospect stuff and the trade deadline. It might be best for you to open a second tab and follow along, so here are the Top 100 pitchers isolated away from the bats. Let’s get to it.
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The Milwaukee Brewers, in recent history, tend to be a little light both on offense and in the payroll department. Which makes Christian Yelich — the team’s leader in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging, and the recipient of nearly a quarter of the team’s major league salary expenditure — a pivotal figure for the franchise. Perhaps to an extent unmatched by any other position player on a contending team. (That’d be an interesting blog for another day.)

On Tuesday, the Brewers faced a situation tailor-made for Yelich: Leading 1-0, runners on first and second, two outs, the right-handed Julian Merryweather on the mound. Milwaukee had struggled to scratch out even that one run, and just a single by Yelich would’ve given the Brewers bullpen room to relax. And yet, out of the dugout stepped the right-handed Rhys Hoskins, not Yelich. Hoskins struck out, and the Brewers quickly announced that their star left fielder was experiencing back tightness.

Oh, crap. Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature. Read the rest of this entry »

Juan Nieves had a promising career cut short by a shoulder injury. A 21-year-old when he debuted with the Milwaukee Brewers in April 1986, the southpaw from Santurce, Puerto Rico pitched just three big league seasons before a tear in his rotator cuff was discovered. With 490.2 innings, 32 wins, and a no-hitter already under his belt, Nieves threw his last pitch at baseball’s highest level prior to celebrating his 24th birthday.

He joined the coaching ranks not long thereafter. Nieves has been tutoring hurlers since 1992, most recently as the assistant pitching coach for the Detroit Tigers, a position he’s held since November 2020. He looked back at his playing days when the Tigers visited Fenway Park earlier this season.

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David Laurila: You faced some great hitters during your relatively short stint in the majors. How did you view those matchups at the time?

Juan Nieves: “It’s funny. Coming from Puerto Rico, I grew up watching the Pirates because of Roberto Clemente, and because of Turner Broadcasting we saw a lot of the Braves. It was more National League, and I ended up in the American League [the Brewers joined the senior circuit in 1998]. Read the rest of this entry »

Last summer, I wrote about how Aaron Civale “King Ralph-ed” his way into an exciting postseason race. The Rays entered the 2023 season with five playoff-caliber starting pitchers at the top of their depth chart and a star pitching prospect waiting in the wings. Yet after several major elbow injuries, they were forced to send a Top 100 prospect to Cleveland in exchange for Civale at the deadline. By August, the right-hander was Tampa Bay’s no. 3 starter. The beneficiary of so many others’ misfortunes, Civale went from a scuffling Guardians club to one of the best teams in the league.

Conversely, Civale probably would have preferred to be back in Cleveland this season. As of today, it’s the Guardians, not the Rays, who are competing with the Orioles for the best record in the American League. Meanwhile, it’s the Rays, not the Guardians, who are struggling to stay above .500 with the trade deadline fast approaching. Thus, I have no choice but to go back to the King Ralph parallel. At the end of the movie, Ralph decides he’d rather return to his old life and abdicates the throne. However, when Ralph abdicates, his aging and childless successor, Sir Cedric, warns him that he might have to be king again once Cedric dies, leaving open the possibility for a sequel. King Ralph never got a second chapter, but as luck would have it, Civale just King Ralph-ed all over again. The rules of the CBA prevent him from simply packing up and heading back to Cleveland, but he’s just taken his place in a new Midwestern court. Read the rest of this entry »

Daniel Schneemann’s claim to fame is having played six positions in his first six MLB games — reportedly no player had done so in over 100 years — but a peculiar versatility record hasn’t been the 27-year-old infielder/outfielder’s only noteworthy accomplishment since he debuted on June 2nd. A surprise contributor to a surprisingly-stellar Cleveland Guardians club, Schneemann has slashed .297/.422/.568 with two home runs and a 182 wRC+ over 45 plate appearances.

To say that the Brigham Young University product has come out of nowhere may not be wholly accurate, but at the same time, he kind of has. A 33rd-round pick in the 2018 draft, Schneemann was an unranked prospect throughout his seven minor league seasons, and his numbers — at least prior to this year’s .294/.428/.556 with 10 home runs in Triple-A — were never anything to write home about.

Intrigued by his transformative emergence, I asked the San Diego native about the adjustments he’s made to get to where he is now.

“They were gradual,” Schneemann told me earlier this week prior to a game at Cleveland’s Progressive Field. “I started making the ones that are important to me in the offseason after 2022. I had some success in 2023 (a 102 wRC+ and 13 home runs at Triple-A Columbus), and built off of those adjustments prior to this season. I’ve seen better results this year, as well.” Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) this week. I’m not sure if this is by design or simply a scheduling coincidence, but this week was full of compelling matchups between current rivals. The Cubs and Cardinals squared off. So did the Yankees and Orioles. The Guardians and Mariners aren’t exactly rivals, but their series rocked too, and I’m sad I couldn’t find a way to squeeze them in this week. That said, there’s a ton to talk about, so let’s get to it, after our usual nod to Zach Lowe of ESPN, who is surely enjoying a well-deserved vacation after the conclusion of the NBA season. To baseball!
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