The Dodgers lineup has been hit hard by injuries, particularly their infield, which in recent weeks has lost shortstop Mookie Betts, third baseman Max Muncy, and multipositional backups Miguel Rojas and Chris Taylor. On Monday, the team made a move to shore that up, acquiring versatile former Gold Glove winner Tommy Edman — who himself has yet to play a major league game this season after undergoing offseason wrist surgery — from the Cardinals as part of a three-team, 10-player trade that also involved the White Sox.

In the full deal, both the NL West-leading Dodgers (63-44) and the Wild Card-chasing Cardinals (54-51) acquired one player for their lineup and one for their pitching staff, while the White Sox (27-81) loaded up on young infielders. The head count for the deal includes two players to be named later, though the teams could instead exchange cash. Here’s how it all shakes out:

Dodgers get:

• INF/OF Tommy Edman (from Cardinals)
• RHP Michael Kopech (from White Sox)
• RHP Oliver Gonzalez (from Cardinals)

Cardinals get:

• RHP Erick Fedde (from White Sox)
• OF Tommy Pham (from White Sox)
• Cash (from White Sox)
• Player to be named later or cash (from Dodgers)

White Sox get:

• 2B/OF Miguel Vargas (from Dodgers)
• 3B Alexander Albertus (from Dodgers)
• 2B Jeral Perez (from Dodgers)
• Player to be named later or cash (from Dodgers)

Edman, a 29-year-old switch-hitter who historically has been stronger against lefties (117 wRC+) than righties (93 wRC+), is a contact-oriented hitter who doesn’t walk much but who has some pop to go with his speed. He batted .248/.307/.399 (92 wRC+) last year for the Cardinals while hitting 13 homers and stealing 27 bases; for his career, he’s hit .265/.319/.408 (99 wRC+). In 2023, he split his time between shortstop (46 starts), second base (40 starts), center field (37 starts) and right field (six starts), continuing a career-long trend of never staying pinned to one position for very long. He played more third base than anywhere else in as a rookie in 2019 and in ’20 as well, and has dabbled in left field here and there. In 2021, the year he won the NL Gold Glove for second basemen, he made 35 starts in right field and three at shortstop as well as 115 at the keystone. When he’s healthy, he should fit right into a Dodgers roster that has a lot of moving parts, but his health is a question mark, and beyond his ability to steal a base — something the Dodgers besides Shohei Ohtani haven’t done much of — he doesn’t have a lot of upside offensively.

Edman missed three weeks last July due to right wrist inflammation, and the injury hampered him through the end of the season. He actually hit for a higher wRC+ after the injury than before (98 versus 89), though he did slump just prior to being sidelined. He underwent surgery on the wrist in October, but by early March it was clear he hadn’t recovered enough to be ready for Opening Day, as he was still experiencing lingering pain due to inflammation. A planned rehab stint in late June was forestalled by a right ankle sprain. He finally returned to action on July 9 with Double-A Springfield, but played just four games before reinjuring the ankle just before the All-Star break. Though Edman has been able to return to hitting, he’s been limited to DH duty, hitting a thin .207/.294/.241 in 34 PA spread over eight games. The lack of defensive work means that he’ll need to continue his rehab assignment for at least a few more games.

Update: Shortly after this article was published, the Dodgers reacquired utilityman Amed Rosario from the Rays in exchange for Triple-A righthander Michael Flynn, a move I’m shoehorning into this analysis post-publication as it may affect how (and when) they’ll deploy Edman. Rosario, a righty-swinging 28-year-old, split last season between the Guardians (where he played himself off of regular shortstop duty with woefully bad defense) and Dodgers, then signed a one-year, $1.5 million deal with Tampa Bay. He’s hit .307/.331/.417 (115 wRC+) with a career-high 4.6% barrel rate but just a 2.5% walk rate, though his real appeal is as a lefty-masher: He owns a 121 wRC+ in 455 PA against southpaws since the start of 2022, and a 92 wRC+ against righties in 1,035 PA over that same span. Defensively, he’s made 18 starts in right field, 17 at second, and 10 apiece at short and third. His metrics are brutal (-5 DRS and -3 FRV in center, -5 DRS and -4 FRV at the three infield positions), but the samples are small; he hasn’t played more than 153.1 innings at any position — probably for a good reason.

Assuming Edman returns in a timely fashion, the Dodgers will probably slot him at shortstop initially; until then, they may opt for Rosario over Nick Ahmed, who debuted for the team on July 24 but could be on the bubble, roster-wise. Betts — who’s played 65 games at the position after playing 16 games there last year — has been out since an errant fastball fractured a metacarpal in his left hand on June 16. Cleared to swing a bat last week, he could be about two weeks away from returning to the Dodgers lineup. Once he returns, the Dodgers could deploy Edman at third base, as Muncy’s progress in his return from a strained oblique suffered in mid-May has been “stagnant,” per manager Dave Roberts. The Dodgers were 29-16 when Muncy last played, but they’ve gone just 34-28 since, with their third basemen hitting a combined .169/.253/.263 (52 wRC+) in a lineup that’s distinctly lacking in length. Enrique Hernández, Taylor, and Cavan Biggio have done most of the damage in Muncy’s absence; none of them has hit well at any position, with Biggio posting an 86 wRC+ overall with Toronto and Los Angeles, and both Hernández (70 wRC+) and Taylor (62 wRC+) even less productive.

If the Dodgers ever approach full strength, Edman or Rosario could share time at second with the lefty-swinging Gavin Lux, who’s hit for just a 33 wRC+ against lefties this year (94 vs. righties). Edman could also find time in center field, where the Dodgers have netted -0.1 WAR with a 73 wRC+, mainly from Andy Pages, a righty-swinging rookie, and James Outman, a lefty whose struggles have sent him shuttling between L.A. and Oklahoma City.

Both Edman and Kopech are under control though 2025. Edman is making $7 million this year and is signed for $9.5 million next year; he’s also got awards-based bonuses in his deal. Kopech — who moved to the bullpen after a dreadful 2023 season spent in Chicago’s rotation — is making $3 million this year and will be arbitration eligible one more time. The 28-year-old righty is renowned for having thrown a 105-mph fastball as a minor leaguer back in 2016. He still averages 98.6 mph with his four-seamer, and is viewed as having fantastic stuff by our two pitch-modeling systems (he throws his cutter slightly more often to lefties and his slider slightly more often to righties). However, his command is an issue; in addition to striking out 30.6% of hitters, he’s walking 12.6% (both improvements compared to last year), and he’s also served up 1.65 homers per nine, so he has a gaudy 4.74 ERA and 4.82 FIP in 43.2 innings:

Kopech has saved nine games and generally has a late-inning profile, but he’s going to be a bit of a project for pitching coach Mark Prior and company. The Dodgers bullpen ranks fourth in the NL with a 3.64 ERA, but it’s 13th in FIP, and it’s been downright terrible since the start of July, posting a 5.77 ERA and 4.74 FIP in 93.2 innings, tied for the second-highest total in the majors; relatedly, their banged-up rotation has a 5.10 ERA and 5.47 FIP in 100.2 innings this month, the majors’ second-lowest total. Righty Evan Phillips leads the team with 15 saves, but he has just two over the past five weeks, as Roberts has more often turned to righty Daniel Hudson, who has four saves since July 12 and seven overall; lefty Alex Vesia has five saves, and both Blake Treinen and Brent Honeywell have one apiece.

As for the Cardinals, their big addition is Fedde. A first-round pick by the Nationals in 2014, he spent parts of six seasons (2017-22) with Washington, getting knocked around for a 5.41 ERA and 5.17 FIP in 454.1 innings. Upon being non-tendered in November 2022, he spent a year pitching for the KBO’s NC Dinos, where he flat-out dominated, going 20-6 with a 2.00 ERA and 2.38 FIP in 180.1 inning. His performance earned him All-Star and MVP honors as well as the Choi Dong-won Award as the league’s top pitcher, and it rekindled interest in him stateside. The White Sox signed Fedde to a two-year, $15 million deal last December.

As Eric Longenhagen detailed when Fedde signed with Chicago, he improved primarily by raising his arm slot, boosting his changeup usage, and reshaping his slider (Statcast classifies it as a sweeper). On a team whose current .250 winning percentage is level with that of the 1962 Mets, Fedde posted a more-than-respectable 3.11 ERA and 3.76 FIP in 121.2 innings — a performance far better than he ever managed with the Nationals. With his sinker/cutter/sweeper/changeup mix, he’s striking out a modest 21.5% of hitters but walking just 6.8%, and generating a healthy 44.8% groundball rate:

It’s a command-over-stuff profile, but then, this is the Cardinals. After a 91-loss 2023 season in which their starters were lit for a 5.08 ERA and 4.61 FIP, they spent this past winter reshaping their rotation by signing free agents Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn. All three have been solid but unspectacular, with Gray the best (3.79 ERA, 2.85 FIP) as expected, but the unit nonetheless ranks 12th in the NL with a 4.44 ERA and 10th with a 4.09 FIP. Andre Pallante, a 25-year-old righty, has spent the past two months as the fifth starter, succeeding where the likes of Matthew Liberatore and the now-inured Steven Matz have scuffled. His 3.42 ERA and 3.78 FIP in 47.1 innings over nine starts is, uh, miles beyond the work of Miles Mikolas (4.99 ERA, 4.25 FIP). Thanks to Gray’s backloaded deal, Mikolas is currently the team’s highest-paid pitcher, however, so it would be a surprise if he ends up in the bullpen, whereas Pallante pitched in that capacity for the Cardinals for the first few weeks of the season.

In Pham, the Cardinals are getting a familiar face, as the now-36-year-old outfielder was drafted by the team out of high school in the 16th round in 2006 and spent parts of five seasons in St. Louis from ’14-18, when he was dealt to the Rays for three prospects (Génesis Cabrera, Roel Ramírez and Justin Williams) just ahead of the trade deadline. The White Sox, with whom he signed a split deal for a $3 million salary in mid-April, were the sixth team for which he’s played since then. In 297 PA with them, he’s hit .266/.330/.380 (102 wRC+) with five homers and six steals.

Pham isn’t hitting the ball as hard as usual. His 90.5 mph average exit velocity, which places him in the 75th percentile, is nonetheless down 1.6 mph from last year, when he was in the 93rd percentile, and both his 7.2% barrel rate and 39.9% hard-hit rate are in the 40s, percentile-wise; last year, they were in the 69th and 89th percentiles, respectively. He’s still an effective lefty-masher, with a 141 wRC+ in 61 PA against southpaws this year, and a 118 in 392 PA since the start of 2022, compared to a 93 wRC+ (in 1,008 PA) against righties. Dreadful defense (-13 DRS, -6 FRV, and -2.5 UZR, all in 570.2 innings spread across the three outfield positions) has offset the modest value of his offense. He’s got no business in center field, though that’s one of the positions where the Cardinals landed on my recent Replacement Level Killers list, and there is at least a natural platoon fit. In Edman’s absence, rookie Victor Scott II started the year in center but went just 5-for-59 before being sent down. Michael Siani, a lefty-swinging 25-year-old rookie, has done the bulk of the work since, hitting a meek .245/.284/.319 (73 wRC+) but playing stellar defense (12 FRV, 8 DRS, 6.1 UZR including his brief time at both outfield corners). He’s hit for a 44 wRC+ in 80 PA against lefties, so letting Pham take some starts there may not be the worst thing, defense be damned.

Trading Edman was reportedly part of the Cardinals’ attempt to remain payroll-neutral. In dealing him, however, they’ll miss the chance to shore up not only center field but also second base, where Nolan Gorman struggled to the point of making the Killers list.

In a separate post, Longenhagen has analysis of Gonzalez, a 17-year-old righty who’s currently in the Dominican Summer League, and goes into detail regarding the White Sox’s return, but here’s a thumbnail guide. The 24-year-old Vargas, who placed 48th on our Top 100 Prospects list in 2023, fizzled in half a season as a rookie last year before being exiled to Triple-A Oklahoma City. He’s hit .239/.313/.423 (108 wRC+) in 80 PA since returning from the minors in late May; where he played mainly second base last year, he’s been almost exclusively a left fielder this time around. The 19-year-old Albertus ranks 16th on the updated White Sox list as a 40-FV prospect. The 19-year-old Perez, meanwhile, has been reevaluated since he went unranked on the Dodgers Top Prospects list back in March, though he was included in the “Contact-Driven Profiles” section of the honorable mentions. He now carries a 40+ FV grade and is 12th on the updated White Sox list. Initial reports of the trade also included 21-year-old shortstop Noah Miller, but he was not actually part of the deal.

With less than 24 hours to go before the July 30 deadline, the odds are the none of the three teams in this trade are done. The Dodgers have taken a reasonable step to patching up an injury-created weakness while also find a successor for the Hernández/Taylor multiposition role (it’s tough to imagine either of those players on next year’s roster given their struggles); if Edman can provide league-average offense, he’s a boost. They’re still hunting for “an impact-type arm,” with the White Sox’s Garrett Crochet one pitcher who could fit the bill. The Cardinals are looking to improve their bullpen, as is every other contender. The White Sox still have Crochet and Luis Robert Jr. as big-ticket players to restock their system. We’ll see what awaits.

I updated the Top 100 Prospects list today. This post goes through the pitchers and why they stack the way they do. Here’s a link directly to the list, and here’s a link to the post with a little more detail regarding farm system and prospect stuff and the trade deadline. It might be best for you to open a second tab and follow along, so here are the Top 100 pitchers isolated away from the bats. Let’s get to it.
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At last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contenders. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition of contenders (Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, but for the designated hitters, I’ve limited the list to the teams below zero, both to keep the length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the third full season of the universal DH, exactly half the teams in the majors have actually gotten 0.0 WAR or less from their DHs thus far, four are in the middle ground between 0.0 and 1.0, eight are between 1.0 and 2.0, and three are above 2.0. DHs as a group have hit .245/.321/.421 for a 109 wRC+; that last figure is up three points from last year, and seven points from the last time I did this list, via a slash line that’s virtually identical (the majors’ slugging percentage as a whole has dropped 17 points from last season).

This year, we’re seeing a greater number of teams invest more playing time in a single DH. Whereas each of the past two seasons saw three players reach the 500 plate appearance threshold as DHs, this year we’re on pace for five; similarly, 11 player are on pace to reach 400 PA as DHs, compared to eight last year. That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances.

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Strength up the middle is important to any contender, but with so many teams still in the hunt for a playoff spot, it’s no surprise some of them are have some weak spots. Sometimes it’s easier for a team to convince itself that the metrics aren’t fully capturing the strength of a light-hitting player’s defense if they’re playing a premium position, which seems to be the case with the shortstops and some of the center fielders in this year’s batch of Killers. On the flip side, occasionally it’s easier to justify shaky defense if there’s at least a hope of getting adequate offense. Then there are the times that guys get hurt and somebody has to stand out there in the middle pasture looking like they know what’s going on.

While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

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Today, we turn our attention to the second base Killers. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin; as you can see by the table below, four of the six teams listed here project to receive more than a win from their current cast of second base options. Even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look, and the incumbent may no longer appear to be the best option.

Particularly in light of those projections, I don’t expect every team to go out and track down an upgrade before the July 30 deadline, though I’ll note that some of the players cited within for their poor performance are themselves change-of-scenery candidates; one team’s problem may be another team’s solution, albeit not necessarily an ideal one. Either way, I’m less concerned with those solutions – many of which have more moving parts involved than a single trade — than I am with the problems. Unless otherwise indicated, all statistics are through Sunday.

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FanGraphs was at the Futures Game in Arlington on Saturday. In total, 16 pitchers appeared in the seven-inning game. The following are some quick notes on every pitcher who toed the rubber during All-Star weekend’s premier prospect event. Obviously one game isn’t enough on its own to move the needle significantly for any of these guys — they all have a large body of work that can better inform our evaluations — but it’s useful to see whose stuff ticks up when they’re in an environment like the Futures Game and get to let it eat in a shorter burst than they’re accustomed to. Read the rest of this entry »

In a race for a playoff spot, every edge matters. Yet all too often, for reasons that extend beyond a player’s statistics, managers and general managers fail to make the moves that could improve their teams, allowing mediocre production to fester at the risk of smothering a club’s postseason hopes. In Baseball Prospectus’ 2007 book, It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Over, I compiled a historical All-Star squad of ignominy, identifying players at each position whose performances had dragged their teams down in tight races: the Replacement-Level Killers. I’ve revisited the concept numerous times at multiple outlets and have adapted it at FanGraphs in an expanded format since 2018.

When it comes to defining replacement level play, we needn’t hew too closely to exactitude. Any team that’s gotten less than 0.6 WAR from a position to this point — prorating to 1.0 over a full season — is considered fair game. Sometimes, acceptable or even above-average defense (which may depend upon which metric one uses) coupled with total ineptitude on offense is enough to flag a team. Sometimes a club may be well ahead of replacement level but has lost a key contributor to injury; sometimes the reverse is true, but the team hasn’t yet climbed above that first-cut threshold. As with Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart’s definition of hardcore pornography, I know replacement level when I see it.

For this series, I’ll go around the diamond, pointing out the most egregious examples of potential Killers at each position among contenders, which I’ll define as teams that are above .500 or have Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%. That definition covers 20 teams, down from 22 last year. I’ll include the rest-of-season projections from our Depth Charts, and while I may mention potential trade targets, I’m less focused on these teams’ solutions than I am the problems, because hey, human nature. Read the rest of this entry »

Willie Mays was already a superstar by the time the Giants moved across the country following the 1957 season, yet the denizens of San Francisco did not exactly embrace him. They took much more quickly to Orlando Cepeda, who homered against the Dodgers in his major league debut on April 15, 1958, the team’s first game at Seals Stadium, its temporary new home. The slugging 20-year-old first baseman, nicknamed “The Baby Bull” — in deference to his father Pedro “The Bull” Cepeda, a star player in his own right in their native Puerto Rico — was a perfect fit for San Francisco and its culture. He helped to infuse excitement into what had been a sixth-place team the year before, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors in 1958 and kicking off a 17-year career that included an MVP award, a World Series championship, and an induction into the National Baseball Hall of Fame, not to mention a statue outside Oracle Park.

Sadly, 10 days after Mays’ death at the age of 93, the 86-year-old Cepeda passed away as well. The Giants and the Cepeda family announced his death on Friday night — fittingly, during a game against the Dodgers; fans at Oracle Park stood to observe a moment of silence. “Our beloved Orlando passed away peacefully at home this evening, listening to his favorite music and surrounded by his loved ones,” said Nydia Fernandez, his second of three wives, in the statement. No cause of death was provided.

As the second Black Puerto Rican to play in the AL or NL, after Roberto Clemente, Cepeda became a hero in his homeland as well as a favorite of Giants fans. He spent nine seasons with the Giants (1958-66) before trades to the Cardinals (1966–68) and Braves (1969–72), followed by brief stints with the A’s (1972), Red Sox (1973), and Royals (1974) at the tail end of his career. The 6-foot-2, 210-pound righty was a middle-of-the-lineup force on three pennant winners, including the 1967 champion Cardinals, and was selected for an All-Star team 11 times, including two per year from 1959–62; he was the first Puerto Rican player to start an All-Star Game in the first of those seasons. He was the first player to win both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards unanimously; Albert Pujols is the only one to replicate that feat. Cepeda finished his career with 2,351 hits, 379 homers, 142 steals, and a lifetime batting line of .297/.350/.499 (133 OPS+).

Not everything came easily for Cepeda. If not for the pitcher-friendliness of the Giants’ home ballparks — first Seals Stadium and then Candlestick Park — as well as a series of knee injuries that led to 10 surgeries, he might have hit at least 500 home runs. His path to the Hall of Fame took an extreme detour due to a conviction for smuggling marijuana, which resulted in a 10-month stint in federal prison as well as a humiliating fall from grace in Puerto Rico. Only after his release and his conversion to Buddhism was he able to rehabilitate his image and work his way back into the game’s good graces, a process that culminated with his election to the Hall of Fame by the Veterans Committee in 1999, 25 years after his final game. He was the second Puerto Rican player inducted, preceded only by Clemente. Read the rest of this entry »

Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. I’m not sure that Zach Lowe, the progenitor of this format and an incredible NBA writer, ever thought that it would get spun off into baseball. I’m certain that he didn’t think it would get spun off into baseball by someone who likes both popups and bunts an unhealthy amount. But here we are. Speaking of which, I know what you’re thinking: What does Ben think about the two catcher’s interference infield flies from this week? I thought they were more annoying than amusing, and that’s not what we’re about here at Five Things. So let’s talk about a far more delightful popup, plus some infield hits, pretty pitches, and exciting series.

1. A Schwarbloop
Kyle Schwarber hits majestic home runs. Sometimes they hang in the air for an improbable length of time. Sometimes they get out of the park before you can blink. Not only is there a name for them – Schwarbombs – but Wawa even makes a drink named after them. You can’t get any more Philadelphia than that.
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Welcome to another edition of Five Things I Liked (Or Didn’t Like) This Week. By now, you surely know the drill. I credit basketball genius Zach Lowe for creating the format I’m using, make a few jokes about how much baseball I get to watch to write this column, and then give you a preview of what you can read about below. This week’s no exception! I get to watch a ton of baseball, and this week I watched a lot of birds and a lot of bunts. I also watched a lot of the Pirates, just like I do every week. Let’s get right into it.

1. Reversals of Reversals of Fortune

For most of the 21st century, no one would bat an eye if you told them the Cardinals swept the Orioles. The Cards have been good pretty much forever, and the O’s went through a long dry period. But starting last year, things have changed. The Orioles last got swept in early 2022, and they’ve been one of the best teams in baseball since then. The Cardinals fell on tough times after 2022’s Molina/Pujols swan song season. Coming into their series this week, the O’s had the second-best record in the AL, while the Cardinals languished near the bottom of the NL at 20-26.
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