Three Sundays ago, the answer to this column’s weekly quiz was Carlos Santana. The question was, “Which player has appeared in the most regular-season games over the past 10 seasons?” and the now-Pittsburgh Pirates first baseman had played in 1,440 — 13 more than Paul Goldschmidt and 40 more than Freddie Freeman and Anthony Rizzo.

Santana professed not to be aware of the distinction when I mentioned it to him earlier this week. He did seem pleased to hear it, and “humbly prideful” might be the best way to describe his reaction.

“I prepare,” said Santana, who celebrated his 37th birthday yesterday. “I prepare my body. I prepare mentally. I also try to enjoy the game every day. That’s why I can play a lot. The game is my passion. This is my 14th year and I want to play two more. Or maybe three more. Whatever God tells me, and what my body says I can do.”

Count Andrew McCutchen among those who are impressed by his teammate’s reliability and durability over the years.

“It’s really good, to be honest,” said McCutchen, who was likewise unaware of Santana’s distinction. “To be able to do it how he’s done it — he’s in [the lineup] more times than not —shows that he’s stayed healthy, which is a key to doing that. You have to be good enough to do it, too. You’ve got a whole lot of variables to be able to do what he’s done.” Read the rest of this entry »

Once upon a time, a Clayton Kershaw–Madison Bumgarner matchup would have been a sight to behold. But when the two lefties squared off on Saturday evening in Los Angeles, it was a decidedly one-sided affair. Kershaw dominated the Diamondbacks, allowing one run and striking out nine over six innings; Bumgarner, meanwhile, was pummeled for five first-inning runs and lasted just four frames. It was the latest in a long line of disappointing performances since the former Giants ace joined the Diamondbacks.

Bumgarner was on the ropes from the beginning. He served up a double to Mookie Betts on his fifth pitch of the game, hit Max Muncy to load the bases with one out, walked the bases loaded after Chris Taylor’s sacrifice fly scored Betts, and gave up a grand slam to Trayce Thompson, who would later add homers off relievers Kevin Ginkel and Carlos Vargas.

By the time the dust had settled, Bumgarner had thrown 31 pitches and was down 5–0. The 33-year-old lefty did pull himself together enough to follow with three scoreless innings, allowing one baserunner in each, but he finished with four walks and four hits allowed, striking out just two and getting just five swings and misses. Including his 10 called strikes, his 17.6% CSW was his fifth-lowest mark from among his 66 starts as a Diamondback; his low was 15.2% (eight called strikes, two swinging strikes in 66 pitches) in a September 27, 2020 start against the Rockies, in which he at least posted five shutout innings, netting his only win of the pandemic-shortened campaign.

Saturday’s bad news went beyond that meager CSW rate. For one thing, old friend Eno Sarris suggested that Bumgarner and Ginkel were tipping pitches:

Looks like the D-backs were tipping pitches last night against the Dodgers. Some pictures: Kevin Ginkel slider (wrist curl, grass between arms), Kevin Ginkel fastball (no wrist curls, no grass) and Madison Bumgarner letting runner on second see right into his glove. pic.twitter.com/rd2H8C1TAL

— Eno Sarris (@enosarris) April 2, 2023

Even if that hadn’t been the case, the average velocity of Bumgarner’s pitches was down by nearly two miles per hour relative to last year:

You can safely ignore that positive bump on Bumgarner’s slider, as he threw just one on Saturday. Additionally, the spin on his four-seamer averaged just 2,041 RPM, down 162 from last year and 184 from his final start of the spring, on March 27 against the Guardians. The pitch also got 2.7 inches less horizontal break than last year’s model. The Dodgers didn’t actually do any damage off of Bumgarner’s four-seamer, though hitters last year destroyed it to the point that it was the majors’ second-least valuable pitch according to Statcast:

If all of this sounds like a pitcher who’s Physically Not Right, the thought crossed the minds of the Diamondbacks. On Sunday, the team sent the 33-year-old lefty back to Phoenix to be evaluated by team doctors, with manager Torey Lovullo telling reporters, “Bum was talking about fatigue postgame last night.” More via MLB.com:

“Information was kind of coming in slowly and we just thought it’d be the best thing for him to get back to Phoenix where our doctors can get a look at him. On the urgency scale, I don’t think it’s very high, but it’s all precautionary at this point.”

“There was nothing major from his standpoint,” Lovullo said Saturday night. “It was more just us asking questions and trying to find out if everything is OK. There was looseness to the breaking ball, and things just weren’t consistent. He’s always around the zone, but there were some big misses today. Red flags go up when we see that, our eyes tell us a story, but Bum was OK.”

Bumgarner underwent an MRI that showed no structural damage, and as Lovullo said before Monday night’s game, he’s on track to make his next start, likely Friday against the Dodgers at Chase Field. But even if he’s got the green light physically, that’s a long way from finding reasons to be particularly optimistic about his 2023 chances. The former World Series hero is coming off a season in which he pitched to a 4.88 ERA and 4.85 FIP in 158.2 innings and set full-season lows with his 16% strikeout rate and 9% strikeout-walk differential (he was 0.2 points lower in both categories in 2020). Meanwhile, his 9.8% barrel rate and 42.8% hard-hit rate were both full-season highs for the Statcast era. Though he made 30 starts for just the second time since 2016, his 0.5 WAR was the second-lowest among pitchers with 30 or more starts, ahead of only the Mariners’ Marco Gonzalez (0.1).

Since joining Arizona via a five-year, $85 million deal in December 2019, Bumgarner has put up a 5.06 ERA and 5.08 FIP in 350.2 innings, netting just 1.2 WAR. Highlighted by a seven-inning hitless outing that didn’t count as an official no-hitter, his best work came in 2021, when he pitched to a 4.63 ERA and 4.67 FIP in 146.1 innings en route to 1.5 WAR; he missed over six weeks that year due to shoulder inflammation, and while he pitched better after the injury than before, his career has continued its downward trajectory.

Indeed, as measured by Stuff+, the quality of Bumgarner’s pitches has been deteriorating:

Woof. Obviously you can take this year’s one-game sample with a grain of salt, but as Sarris, the model’s co-creator, wrote, the fastball Stuff+ does capture some signal at this level. Aside from his cutter, which he throws about 28% of the time, Bumgarner doesn’t have a pitch that’s consistently average or better, and at this point, one has to wonder what exactly he and the Diamondbacks, for whom former Astros pitching coach Brent Strom now works, are doing to reverse this rather dismal trend. In an age when pitchers reinventing themselves with new offerings or refinements of old ones seems like a constant, why is none of this is happening for Bumgarner?

On a team that aspires to break .500 for the first time since 2019 but that projects for just 78.4 wins via our preseason Playoff Odds, Bumgarner now stands out as one of the weak links. The Diamondbacks’ rotation placed just 23rd in our Positional Power Rankings, with six Arizona starters — staff ace Zac Gallen, veteran righties Zach Davies and Merrill Kelly, rookie Ryne Nelson, and prospects Brandon Pfaadt and Drey Jameson — all forecast to exceed Bumgarner’s projected 0.3 WAR, the last three of those each with 40–100 fewer innings. In other words, the case that he is one of the Diamondbacks’ best five starters relies upon some combination of reverence for his track record, a desire to justify a contract that looks like a sunk cost, and a need for prospects to get more seasoning. Bumgarner’s World Series exploits are the stuff of legend, but since spraining his AC joint in a 2017 dirtbike accident that cost him three months, he’s managed just a 100 ERA- and 108 FIP- and reached 30 starts only twice. Going by batted ball stats, he’s had an xERA of 5.53 or higher in every season with the Diamondbacks save for 2021.

Bumgarner is the Diamondbacks’ highest-paid player, owed $23 million for this year and $14 million for next year, but at best he looks more like a guy who can eat 140–150 innings at the back the rotation. It’s understandable why he’s begun the year in the starting five as Arizona breaks in Nelson, uses Jameson out of the bullpen, and farms out Pfaadt, who made just 10 starts at Triple-A Reno last year. But if the Diamondbacks are going to turn the corner, they’ll have to reckon with what the 2023 version of Bumgarner can give them. Right now, that doesn’t look like a whole lot.

Zac Gallen has a 3.16 ERA over 82 big-league starts. He also has just 22 wins, a total that deserves to be far higher. On 29 occasions, the 27-year-old Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander has had either a loss or a no-decision while working five or more innings and allowing two or fewer earned runs. In 20 of those games he’s gone at least six innings, and in eight of them he’s gone at least seven. Moreover, there have been no undeserved Ws. The most earned runs Gallen has allowed while being credited with a win is three, and that has only happened twice.

I recently asked the hard-luck hurler about his run of bad fortune.

“I’m aware of it,” responded Gallen, whose career record stands a modest 22-23. “It’s something my family looks at and kind of jokes around with, that I’m an unlucky pitcher in the sense of getting wins. But my job is to throw up as many zeros as I can and keep us in the game. As baseball has gone on, the win has also been, for lack of a better word, devalued. Starters aren’t going as long in games, which contributes to that.”

Not allowing any runs — regardless of the number of innings you throw — is the ultimate goal for any pitcher, and Gallen had baseball’s best scoreless streak last season. Over a seven-start stretch from August 8 to September 11, he went 44-and-third consecutive innings without allowing a runner to cross the plate. That he was credited with a win in all but one of those starts isn’t exactly surprising, but at the same time, Gallen has learned not to to take anything for granted. Four times in his career he’s gone six or more scoreless innings without a decision.

“It was awesome,” Gallen said of his impressive string of zeros. “I’ve kind of taken on the thought that you really have to earn your wins. [Manager] Torey [Lovullo] talks about it all the time. Pitching deep into games is how starters are often going to earn those wins, so that is something I take pride in.”

Gallen went at least seven innings 10 times last year on his way to a 12-4 record — which, like his career ledger, should have been much better. With solid run support, the snake-bitten D-Back could easily have been a 20-game winner. Devalued or not, that number has long been a mark of distinction for starting pitchers. That in mind, is 20 a goal for Gallen this year?

“My goal for us is to make the playoffs,” Gallen told me. “If 20 wins falls within that, great. If it’s 10 wins — whatever the number — that’s fine, too. As long as we’re in the playoffs, I don’t care. I just want to pitch well and help us get there.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Bobby Bonds went 2 for 22 against Lowell Palmer.

Jeffrey Leonard went 3 for 23 against David Palmer.

Chuck Hinton went 4 for 24 against Jim Palmer.

Dean Palmer went 6 for 7 against Shane Reynolds.

Luke Easter went 4 for 4 against Cuddles Marshall.

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Watching Rafael Devers get called out on strikes on Opening Day because the home plate umpire ruled that he wasn’t ready in time brought to mind something Rich Hill said following a spring training start. Asked about the ramifications of the new pitch clock rule, the veteran left-hander aptly brought up common sense — something MLB’s powers-that-be seemingly don’t always consider.

“I’m not against a faster game — there’s no question about that — but I am 100% against an outcome that is a result of non-competitive action,” said Hill. “I think everybody should be.”

“Maybe five more seconds,” added Hill. “Again, I’m not against a fast game, it’s just that it’s tough to watch some of these results, like getting ball four, or a guy striking out [without a pitch being thrown]. It’s not fair to anyone. The fans are booing. They want to see action. They want to see a quicker game — there are positives — but that big drawback is such a negative.”

I’m on board with Hill’s opinions. An extra five seconds on the pitch clock is far from a bad idea, and more importantly, ending a plate appearance without a pitch being thrown is anathema to fair play. That said, if the rule is indeed going to be enforced, I’d like to suggest an official-scoring change. A pitcher isn’t charged with an earned run when an extra-innings zombie runner (the worst rule in the history of professional sports) scores, so why would a pitcher be credited with a K on a pitch he never threw? The hurler who “struck out” Devers did so via a non-competitive action, and statistically speaking, that’s illogical. Accomplishments should be earned, not arbitrarily assigned.

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A quiz:

The New York Yankees franchise record for career games started is co-held by two pitchers. Who are they?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

The Midwest League’s Great Lakes Loons have hired John Vicari to work alongside Brad Tunney in their radio booth this season. A 2021 Ithaca College graduate, Vicari was with the High-A Lake County Captains last year.

Roberto Barbon, who spent 1954 in the Brooklyn Dodgers system before becoming Japan’s first Latin American player, reportedly died last month at age 89. A Cuban-born infielder, Barbon played for the Hankyu Braves from 1955-1964, and for the Osaka Kintetsu Buffaloes in 1965.

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The answer to the quiz is Whitey Ford and Andy Pettitte, with 438 starts each.

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Tyler Rogers had just finished his rookie season with the San Francisco Giants when he led Sunday Notes in October 2019. The subject at hand was the righty’s submarine delivery, which confounds enough hitters to make him effective despite a fastball that ranks, per Statcast, in the first percentile for velocity, and in the second percentile for spin. Thanks largely to his uniqueness, Rogers has a 2.92 ERA and a 3.23 FIP over 195 relief outings comprising 203-and-a-third innings.

What has the twin brother of teammate Taylor Rogers learned about how his stuff plays from analytics?

“Nothing, to be honest,” Rogers told me on my recent visit to Giants camp. “The Rapsodos, and the TrackMans we have in the bullpen, don’t even pick me up. Plus, I never really dive into the numbers. That’s for the coaches, and the people who know what they’re looking at. I just go out there and pitch. I’m pretty much old school in that regard.”

Do hitters ever tell him how his pitches play, particularly when they’re thrown in certain areas of the zone?

“Oh, they tell me,” the right-hander responded with a laugh. “They definitely tell me that”

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MLB announced that a total of 269 players representing 19 different countries and territories outside of the 50 United States were on Opening Day rosters and inactive lists. The Dominican Republic had the most, with 104, followed by Venezuela (62), Cuba (21), Puerto Rico (19), Mexico (15), Canada (10), Japan (8), Colombia (7), Curaçao (4), Panama (4), South Korea (4), the Bahamas (2), Nicaragua (2), Aruba (1), Australia (1), Brazil (1), Germany (1), Honduras (1), and Taiwan (1).

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

The 2023 NPB season kicked off this week with the Rakuten Golden Eagles beating the Nippon Ham Fighters 3-1. Masahiro Tanaka went five-and-two-thirds innings for the win, while Maikel Franco had three hits and drove in a pair of runs.

The Tokyo Yakult Swallows topped the Hiroshima Carp 4-0 behind seven shutout innings by Yasuhiro Ogawa and a home run by Munetaka Murakami. The latter is coming off of a season where he slashed .318/.458/.711 with 56 home runs.

Opening Day in the KBO was highlighted by a 12-10 Doosan Bears win over the Lotte Giants. Jose Rojas hit a walk-off, three-run homer in the bottom of the 11th inning to end the high-scoring affair.

Anthony Alford and Baek-ho Kang combined to go went 7-for-9 with six RBIs to lead the KT Wiz to an 11-6 win over the LG Twins. Wes Benjamin threw six scoreless innings for the winning side.

Shin-Soo Choo homered in SSG Landers’ 4-1 win over the Kia Tigers. The 40-year-old DH was also called out while attempting a straight steal of home.

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C.J. Cron has had a solid career with the bat, particularly in the power department. Now in his 10th big-league season, and his third with the Colorado Rockies, the 33-year-old first baseman has averaged 28 home runs over the previous four non-COVID campaigns. And he’s off to a stellar start in 2023. Through his first two games, Cron is 7-for-11 with a pair of walks and three bombs.

I first interviewed the right-handed-hitting slugger in 2013 when he was a Los Angeles Angels prospect playing in the Arizona Fall League. When I caught up to him in Rockies camp a few weeks ago, I asked him if his career path has gone much as he’d expected. His response quickly segued into a nod to one of the best hitters of our generation.

“I never really had an idea of what it was going to be like,” claimed Cron. “I kind of just went step by step, always trying to play well and help the team as much as possible. Obviously, when you come into the league playing behind Albert Pujols, the opportunity might be a little more limited than you would love. But it was so great to learn under him. Watching how he went about his business — his solid baseball routine, how he hit in the cage, the way he hit in BP, the way he approached the game — taught me a lot.”

I asked Cron about the degree to which he followed Pujols’s routine.

“Not specific drills, and stuff like that,” Cron responded. “But definitely how often he hit in the cage. He was in there all the time. So yeah, I was in the cage quite a bit too. Little things like that.”

Cron has 177 career home runs to go with a 112 wRC+. He made his first All-Star team last year.

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FARM NOTES

New York Mets prospect Brett Baty went 4-for-5 with a pair of home runs yesterday as Triple-A Syracuse topped the Worcester Red Sox 16-6. The 23-year-old third baseman is No. 23 on our Top 100.

Keston Hiura, who cleared waivers after being DFA’d by the Milwaukee Brewers last week, homered yesterday in Triple-A Nashville’s 5-4 win over Louisville. The former first-rounder also drew three walks.

Daniel Murphy has signed with the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. A veteran of 12 big-league seasons, the 38-year-old (as of yesterday) infielder last played with the Colorado Rockies in 2020.

Kole Cottam signed with the Atlantic League’s Frederick Baseball Club. A 25-year-old catcher out of the University of Kentucky, Cottam has been in the Red Sox system since 2018 and spent last year in Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester.

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When Brandon Hyde met the media following Thursday’s 10-9 win at Fenway Park, the Baltimore manager was asked by The Athletic’s Dan Connolly about Adley Rutschman’s big day. As Connelly pointed out, no Orioles player going back to 1954 — the franchise’s first year in Baltimore — had ever had an Opening Day where he logged five hits and reached base six times. To Hyde, the 5-for-5-with-a-walk-and-a-home-run performance wasn’t so much surprising as it was a sign of what the 25-year-old catcher is capable of.

“If you do anything historical for the Baltimore Orioles, it’s… there have been a lot of great players who have worn this uniform,” said Hyde. “It’s not the only time you’re going to say that about Adley. He’s going to be doing other things that are firsts, as well. He’s just a super special player. He’s a really good hitter and he hasn’t even played a full year yet. Good things are coming.”

Rutschman — the runner-up in last year’s A.L. Rookie-of-the-Year voting — told reporters that he had no idea he’d gone into the record books, only that he was glad they’d won a “well-fought”game. That it was his first big-league Opening Day — the erstwhile Oregon State Beaver made his MLB debut in mid-May — did resonate with Rutschman.

“I’ve had a couple of Opening Days in college, down in Arizona in front of 5,000 people, and this definitely blows that right out of the water,” said Rutschman. “To have that close game in the ninth inning, and the crowd getting so loud, I was sitting there thinking, ‘This is pretty cool.’”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Team Japan manager Hideki Kuriyama was critical of WBC organizers for changing the bracket mid-tournament, a decision that scrapped his plans to pitch Roki Sasaki against the United States. Jason Coskrey has the story at The Japan Times.

MLB.com’s Anne Rogers wrote about Melissa Lambert, who as the club’s Director of Behavioral Science is the first-ever woman to be part of the Kansas City Royals’ on-field staff.

The Athletic’s Andrew Baggerly wrote an ode to the recently-retired Sergio Romo (subscription required).

Arte Moreno recently cited economics as the main reason why the Angels aren’t sending their radio broadcasters on the road this year. Sean Keeley wrote about the unpopular owner’s inexcusable decision — and his equally embarrassing explanation — for Awful Announcing.

The editorial board of The Baltimore Sun has issues with Orioles chairman and CEO John Angelos twice stating — unsolicited, no less — that he will share information about the team’s financials, only to then criticize one of the publication’s writers for expecting him to keep his word.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

Miguel Cabrera played in his 20th career Opening Day on Thursday. The Detroit DH doubled in one of his four at-bats, giving him 3,089 career hits, tying him with Ichiro Suzuki on MLB’s all-time list. Miggy has since recorded hit number 3,090 and is now 24th all-time.

Paul Goldschmidt had a stolen base on Opening Day and has been successful on each of his last 23 attempts. The streak dates back to the 2019 season.

The Chicago White Sox went 19-3 against the Washington Senators in 1909. They beat Walter Johnson six times, by final scores of 1-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0. and 6-3.

Pete Alexander and Christy Mathewson finished their Hall of Fame careers with 373 wins each. Alexander threw 436 complete games and had a 135 ERA+. Mathewson threw 435 complete games and had a 136 ERA+.

The Detroit Tigers returned Maury Wills, whom they’d purchased on an option basis, to the Los Angeles Dodgers on today’s date in 1959. Wills went on to make his MLB debut that summer, then lead in the National League in stolen bases each year from 1960-1965.

The Milwaukee Brewers signed Willie Randolph as a free agent on today’s date in 1991. The longtime New York Yankees second baseman, who had spent the previous season with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Oakland Athletics, went on to slash .327/.424/.374 over 512 plate appearances in his one-year Milwaukee stint.

Players born on today’s date include Dick “The Monster” Radatz, who was one of the game’s most dominant relievers before arm woes curtailed his career. In his first three seasons with the Boston Red Sox (1962-1964), the Detroit native went a combined 40-21 with 76 saves and a 2.17 ERA over 414 innings. Radatz holds the MLB record for strikeouts in a season by a relief pitcher with 181.

Also born on today’s date was Cotton Pippen, who pitched for the St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Athletics, and Detroit Tigers from 1936-1940. The right-hander from Cisco, Texas had his best season in the Pacific Coast League, winning 20 games with the Oakland Oaks in 1943.

Christian Walker had to wait for an opportunity. Drafted as a first baseman by the Orioles out of the University of South Carolina in 2012, he came up through Baltimore’s system at the same time that Chris Davis was bashing home runs on a regular basis. Then he found himself with a team where the player ensconced at his position was even better: In 2017 and ’18, Walker was buried behind Paul Goldschmidt on the Diamondbacks’ depth chart. When he celebrated his 28th birthday in March 2019, he had all of 61 big league games under his belt.

Opportunity finally came that season — Goldschmidt was traded to the Cardinals over the winter — and Walker didn’t waste it. Displaying the plus power that has remained his calling card, he went deep 29 times and logged a .348 OBP and a .476 slugging percentage. He’s an even better hitter now, heading into the current campaign on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him go deep 36 times with a 122 wRC+.

More than opportunity was behind the slugger’s breakthrough. Six years ago, he began an evolution that has turned him what he is today: a bona fide hitting nerd. Walker discussed that transformation prior to a recent spring training game.

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David Laurila: You had a breakthrough season in 2019. Was that mostly a matter of opportunity, or was it more about adjustments you’d made?

Christian Walker: “A little bit of both. Some of it was diving into the hitting side of things, the mechanics. I’m a tinkerer at heart, so it’s fun for me to think about new things and try to unlock something. But to be honest, it’s really about being surrounded by a great staff. They know where my head goes when I want to work on something and start asking questions. It’s good to have guys like [hitting coach] Damion Easley around to keep me competitive and less mechanical.

“That said, the whole conversion started in 2015 when I got introduced to a hitting guy back in Pennsylvania. Jon Walton is at Diamond Dreams Baseball Academy, and he’s shown me this whole other world of hitting. We grew up in similar baseball circles — I’m from just outside of Philly — and he really understands the data side of hitting. It’s helpful for me to have somebody to filter the helpful stuff from the getting-lost-in-the-weeds conversations.” Read the rest of this entry »

David Ross was 38 years old and still strapping on the tools of ignorance when he was featured here at FanGraphs in February 2016. The title of the piece was David Ross: Future Big League Manager, and as many in the industry had suggested it would, that supposition soon came to fruition. The longtime catcher is currently embarking on what will be his fourth season at the helm of the Chicago Cubs. I recently asked Ross how he approaches the job philosophically now that he’s firmly in the trenches.

“My style — the way I approach being a manager — is leadership and direction, but I’m also still a player at heart,” Ross told me. “I understand what these guys are going through, competing for jobs and different roles. Communicating through that as a former player, someone who experienced it, I can relate to them. I try to keep a player’s mindset as part of my decision-making.”

Jed Hoyer was the club’s General Manager when the Cubs hired Ross following the 2019 season. I asked the now President of Baseball Operations about the process that informed that decision. Read the rest of this entry »

Every time a young star signs a contract extension, we all breathlessly mention the total guarantee. Did you hear Corbin Carroll is getting one hundred and ten million dollars? You could buy a pretty nice house with that, or several nice houses, or live comfortably for the rest of your life and set your kids up to succeed in the bargain. It’s natural to focus on something like that. It is, after all, the main part of the deal.

In almost every one of these extensions, there’s an additional feature: one or more years of team options tacked on to the end of the contract. Our collective analytical view of those tends to be more or less a shrug. “Oh, yeah, and two team options, so that’s nice,” we say, or “well, that makes sense.” I wouldn’t call our evaluations of these options particularly nuanced.

I don’t think that’s going to change on the whole, but the Carroll extension spurred me to at least delve a little deeper into the dollars and cents side of those team options. I’ve already done some work on opt outs from the player perspective, and conveniently enough, I can lift a lot of the mathematical methods from that treatment and use them to evaluate things from the team side. Read the rest of this entry »

The Diamondbacks left a huge hole in their outfield when they traded Daulton Varsho to Toronto a few days before Christmas. He was not only Arizona’s leader in position player WAR but also the top defensive outfielder in baseball in 2022, according to UZR and outs above average. He brought back a significant haul— an elite young catcher in Gabriel Moreno and a potent corner bat in Lourdes Gurriel Jr. — but left a significant hole to fill in the outfield. Will Diamondbacks pitchers suddenly suffer endless bloop hits and doubles to the gap in his absence?

“There have been times when I’ve been in center, Alek’s been in left, Corbin’s been in right, kind of mismatching all over,” says Jake McCarthy. “When there’s a ball in the gap or over someone’s head, you never assume it’s a hit.”

There’s plenty of competition for playing time among Diamondbacks outfielders this spring. But in an ideal world, Arizona will line up with McCarthy and the two teammates he mentioned — Corbin Carroll and Alek Thomas — to form the fastest outfield in baseball. Read the rest of this entry »

We’ve reached the point in the offseason when it’s time for one of my favorite/most hated preseason traditions: my attempt to predict breakouts and busts. Since those are beyond what a projection system suggests are naturally going to be low-probability outcomes, there’s a high probability of me looking pretty silly — something writers generally try to avoid. Let’s start by looking back at how smart I was last year…or how foolish:

Thank goodness I had a weaker year than average overall, as I included a few of my favorite players in the mix! Being right for breakouts is a lot of fun, but being right on the busts is a bit depressing, a definite sign that I’ve mellowed as I enter middle age. Trout’s contact rate didn’t bounce back, and his BABIP crashed by well over 100 points, but his newfound grounder proclivity disappeared, and the power boost more than compensated for an OBP nearly 50 points below his career average. Riley’s BABIP also predictably fell, but he hit the ball harder and became a more well-rounded hitter, crushing most pitches instead of predominantly fastballs. Most of the rest came in at the middle-third of the ZiPS projections, which is a victory for the computer rather than me — all that is except for Schwindel, who didn’t just regress toward the mean; he lapped it.

Now, let’s turn to this year’s picks, as I throw myself upon the tender mercies of fortune. Read the rest of this entry »

Spring is for extensions. As surely as swallows flock to Capistrano or salmon charge upstream, major league teams spend February and March offering their young stars sackfuls of money in exchange for years of team control. Sure enough, the Diamondbacks and Corbin Carroll followed the path of least resistance over the weekend in agreeing to an eight-year deal worth $111 million, with a ninth-year option for $28 million and $20 million in various contract incentives.

That sounds like a lot of money. Carroll, after all, has only played 32 games in the major leagues and has accrued only 772 professional plate appearances. But do the math, and you can see why Arizona offered this deal, and also why Carroll accepted it.

Carroll isn’t some random recent debut. He’s the number two prospect in baseball, a power-contact-speed-and-defense threat who has dismantled every level of competition he’s faced. That includes the major leagues; that 32-game debut saw Carroll hit .260/.330/.500 with superlative baserunning and defense. He looked like an All-Star right away, and truthfully, he’s always looked like an All-Star. That’s how you end up as the number two prospect in baseball as a 5-foot-10 outfielder so quickly despite missing nearly two consecutive seasons of playing time thanks to the pandemic and then injury. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an evaluation of the prospects in the Arizona Diamondbacks farm system who readers should consider “imminent big leaguers,” players who can reasonably be expected to play in the majors at some point this year. This includes all prospects on the 40-man roster as well as those who have already established themselves in the upper levels of the minors but aren’t yet rostered. Any Top 100 prospects, regardless of their ETA, are also included on this list. Reports, tool grades, and scouting information for all of the prospects below can also be found on The Board.

This is not a top-to-bottom evaluation of the Diamondbacks farm system. I like to include what’s happening in minor league and extended spring training in my reports as much as possible, since scouting high concentrations of players in Arizona and Florida allows me to incorporate real-time, first-person information into the org lists. However, this approach has led to some situations where outdated analysis (or no analysis at all) was all that existed for players who had already debuted in the majors. Skimming the imminent big leaguers off the top of a farm system will allow this time-sensitive information to make its way onto the site more quickly, better preparing readers for the upcoming season, helping fantasy players as they draft, and building site literature on relevant prospects to facilitate transaction analysis in the event that trades or injuries foist these players into major league roles. There will still be a Diamondbacks prospect list that includes Deyvison De Los Santos, Yu-Min Lin, and all of the other prospects in the system who appear to be at least another season away. As such, today’s list includes no ordinal rankings. Readers are instead encouraged to focus on the players’ Future Value (FV) grades. Read the rest of this entry »