Jimmy Nelson has had a rough few years, facing the most harrowing tribulation of a professional pitcher: persistent injuries. In 2015 and 2016, Nelson tossed 177.1 and 179.1 innings, respectively, with a cumulative ERA of 4.37 and 2.5 WAR. That WAR total over 356.2 innings put him on about a 1.56 WAR per 180 innings pace, about what we might expect from a back-end starter. Given how many innings he was able to shoulder, he was a valuable contributor. The following season, Nelson broke out. He added almost a tick to his fastball and increased the usage of his two breaking balls with great results. He posted a 3.49 ERA in 2017. His strikeout rate increased from 18.5% in his prior two seasons to 27.3% and he trimmed his walk rate by about 33% while maintaining an above average groundball rate of 50.3%. These improvements added up to an astounding 4.8 WAR in 175.1 innings, a massive leap that placed him eighth in baseball among starters.

But the end of the 2017 season marked the start of a string of injuries that kept Nelson off the mound for much of the past three seasons. The first came in September of his superlative 2017. Running the bases following a single against the Cubs, Nelson took a hard turn around first and was forced to dive back to the bag after inducing a throw from the defense. Upon extending his arm to the base, he tore the labrum and rotator cuff in his right arm, comprising his shoulder capsule and incurring nerve damage; the injury kept Nelson out for all of 2018. He returned to the Brewers on June 5, 2019, made four appearances (three of them starts) and suffered an elbow injury that forced him off the mound until September of that same year when he then made six more appearances. In just 22 innings of work, he had a less-than-stellar 6.95 ERA and walked over 16% of the batters he faced. Milwaukee did not tender him a contract that offseason.

The Dodgers signed Nelson that winter, with the intent of rehabilitating someone who was among the most effective pitchers in the majors. But Nelson suffered a back injury in spring training prior to the COVID-19 shutdown, forcing him to have surgery on his back. That injury, according to Nelson himself, was the result of “mechanical compensations that developed over time going back from the shoulder.” He missed all of 2020 but the Dodgers brought him back on a minor-league contract, hoping he could rediscover some of his prior form and fortify a bullpen that lost its second, fifth, and ninth most-used arms, including Jake McGee, who was the team’s most valuable reliever by WAR. Read the rest of this entry »

Last Wednesday, Trevor Bauer had a rough start. In six innings, he struck out 10 Padres, but that’s where the highlights ended. He walked four and gave up three home runs, pushing his season total to 17 homers allowed. They were all solo shots, which limited the damage, but still: three home runs isn’t a good day’s work. After the game, Bauer was understandably defensive:

"I have the worst home run luck in the league. Every time I make a little mistake it leaves the yard." — Trevor Bauer on his 3 solo shots allowed tonight. #Dodgers

— Michael J. Duarte (@michaeljduarte) June 24, 2021

Now, “little mistakes” are hard to measure. Consider this titanic Manny Machado blast, for example:

Mistake? Maybe. But how do you define a mistake pitch? That was an 82.6 mph slider, roughly two ticks faster than Bauer’s average for the pitch. Per Statcast, it had 16 inches of total break (against spin-less movement), roughly 1.5 inches less than his average slider breaks. He left it over the plate, but not excessively so; five inches above the bottom of the zone. He doesn’t locate sliders there often, but the previous three had resulted in two swinging strikes and a pop out.

So was this a sublime effort by Machado or a bad pitch by Bauer? I’d lean towards the former — though Bauer would have a better argument on his pitch to Victor Caratini later in the game. But that’s hardly a scientific way of looking at it, and I wanted to do at least slightly better. Otherwise, how will we evaluate Bauer’s claim that he’s the unluckiest man on the planet, at least when it comes to home runs? Read the rest of this entry »

Some of my fondest memories of baseball have nothing to do with the game being played on the field. Every summer like clockwork, my best friend and I set out on a new baseball adventure. We wait eagerly for the arrival of the next season’s schedule and make our travel plans accordingly. One year it was driving north through Florida to visit the stadiums in Miami, St. Petersburg, and Atlanta. Another year, we melted our way through the heat of July in the Midwest, seeing Kansas City, St. Louis, Cincinnati, and Chicago.

The first time I ever took a solo road trip I did it to see baseball, visiting six stadiums and numerous baseball-themed attractions along the way. I survived traffic in Pittsburgh and scientifically determined the best cupcake shops in Washington D.C. (Red Velvet Cupcakery, though if you are a fan of sweeter, richer cupcakes, Baked and Wired is for you).

In Baltimore, a stranger gave me tips on the best place to try crab. In St. Petersburg, a friendly season ticket holder named Sherry overheard me telling the guest services attendant it was my first Rays game. She insisted on bringing me and my friend into the season ticket holders area and showing us around, as if being a Rays ambassador was her job (it should be). In Kansas City, I befriended a local so lovely that she invited me to come back and stay with her the following year to enjoy more games and more BBQ, and we went on a tour of Kauffman stadium. Read the rest of this entry »

Thursday night’s game between the Chicago Cubs and the Los Angeles Dodgers was Joc Pederson’s first trip back to Dodger Stadium since the team won the World Series in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. The Cubs starting left fielder received his ring before the game. It was a beautiful ceremony. It was a show of strength. It was the Dodgers best moment all night.

The Dodgers were understandably favorites going into the game, with a -250 line in Vegas. The Cubs were the underdogs at +200 and while I’m not really a gambler, those odds seemed a bit light. Toeing the mound for the Cubs was Zach Davies, fresh on the heels of a 10-2 drubbing by the Marlins that saw him leave the game after six innings pitched, seven hits, three walks and eight earned runs. Walker Buehler was the Dodgers starter, in search of his 24th straight start without a loss.

Baseball is a funny game.

And this was something of a funny no-hitter. The 2021 Dodgers are the first team to be no-hit the year after winning the World Series since the 2013 Giants were no hit by Homer Bailey, then of the Cincinnati Reds. Interestingly, while the 2020 Dodgers were not no-hit, the club’s previous two championship teams were the year they won it all. The 1988 Dodgers won the World Series, but before Kirk Gibson hit that epic home run, the team fell to the Reds’ in Tom Browning’s perfect game on September 16, 1988. The 1981 Dodgers team was no-hit by the Houston Astros Nolan Ryan on their way to a World Series Championship. Perhaps, then, the Dodgers shouldn’t worry too much about being no-hit in the regular season, though you can forgive their fans for feeling some concern today despite that history. Read the rest of this entry »

While Yu Darvish carved up the Dodgers on Monday night at Petco Park, Mookie Betts accounted for the team’s only notable gasp of offense, clubbing a third-inning solo homer that accounted for Los Angeles’ only run in six innings against the Padres’ righty, and one of their two hits. The Dodgers trailed 4-0 at the time, and were down 6-1 when Betts had another chance to make an impact. Batting with two outs and the bases loaded in the seventh against Austin Adams, Betts swung at a 2-0 slider high in the zone but managed just a routine fly ball for the third out; the Dodgers went on to lose, 6-2.

It’s been that kind of season for Betts, who has certainly had his moments here and there — his leadoff homer and double play against the Pirates on June 10, for example — but has generally been unable to sustain the type of magic that he generated in his first year as a Dodger. Acquired from the Red Sox in February 2020 and subsequently signed to a 12-year, $356 million deal, Betts helped spur the team to its first championship in 32 years with his offensive, defensive and baserunning contributions; indeed, his postseason work was a tour de force. This year, the 28-year-old right fielder has battled minor injuries and has yet to go on any kind of sustained hot streak. Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Pepiot is No. 6 on our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects list largely because of his changeup. Baseball America has described the 23-year-old’s best pitch as “devastating [and] plus-plus,’ while our own Eric Longenhagen has likened it to Devin Williams’s Airbender. Per BA, Pepiot has the second-best changeup in the minors, with only Jackson Kowar’s grading out as better.

The Dodgers’ third-round pick in the 2018 draft out of Butler University, Pepiot has made six starts with the Double-A Tulsa Drillers this year and has a 1.64 ERA to go with 33 strikeouts — and just 10 hits allowed — in 22 innings of work. He discussed his signature offering, and touched on the rest of his repertoire, prior to last night’s game.

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David Laurila: How would you describe your changeup?

Ryan Pepiot: “I’m trying to make it as close to a screwball as possible. A lot of guys cut the spin when they throw their changeups, but the way mine works, I actually spin the ball more than I do my fastball. It’s kind of like how Devin Williams does it, where he spins it close to 3,000 [rpm]. I’m not that high — I’m in the 2,500-2,600 range — but I get arm-side fade and depth. I throw a four-seam circle change, and that allows the spin to look closer to a fastball from a hitter’s perspective. That helps get swings-and-misses, and also takes on pitches that sometimes I wouldn’t get takes on if it was a two-seam changeup and you could see the spin.”

Laurila: It sounds like you don’t back away from the Devin Williams comps you’ve gotten at times.

Pepiot: “No. I see his and I’m like, ‘That’s just gross.’ Like, how do you make something move like that? When I’m out there, I’m trying to do something similar.”

Laurila: What is the story behind your changeup? You don’t just walk onto the mound and start throwing a pitch like that. Read the rest of this entry »

These are notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

From games on June 8

Luis Campusano, C, San Diego Padres
Level & Affiliate: Triple-A El Paso  Age: 22   Org Rank: 3   FV: 55
Line: 3-for-4, HR, 2B, BB

Notes
Recall that Campusano was thrust straight into the big leagues from High-A during the bizarre 2020 season, then found himself unexpectedly in the big leagues again early this year when Austin Nola was hurt. Even Campusano’s struggles during his first few weeks settling into Triple-A (remember, this is a 22-year-old whose last full season was in A-ball) are, you know, just a couple of weeks and he’s hitting .296/.387/.556 since the calendar flipped over to June. I’m not inclined to move off of him at all based on a couple of weeks of poor surface-level performance, especially when dry periods of surface performance are common for catchers because of the physical beating they take behind the plate. This is one of the more talented hitting catchers in all of pro baseball, a well-rounded offensive player at a position that might be the thinnest in all the big leagues. If you’re a dynasty fantasy baseball player who plays in a league with people who overreact to small samples or who struggle to put performance in proper context, you should pursue Campusano. Read the rest of this entry »

Clayton Beeter looks at pitching with a scientific bent. He also blows away hitters with a fastball-curveball combo that has elicited comparisons to a healthy Nick Anderson. Our own Eric Longenhagen made that very comp when he bullishly ranked the 22-year-old right-hander seventh on our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list. Baseball America slotted Beeter — the 66th-overall pick in last year’s draft — 21st on their own list.

Red-shirted his freshman year at Texas Tech University after undergoing Tommy John surgery during his first semester, Beeter returned to action as a closer, then moved into the Red Raiders starting rotation in his draft year. His future role yet to be determined, he’s currently taking the mound with the High-A Great Lakes Loons.

Beeter discussed his arsenal, and his approach to pitching, this past Saturday.

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David Laurila: Let’s start with how you self-identify as a pitcher. Give me a scouting report on yourself.

Clayton Beeter: “I would say I’ve got an overpowering fastball paired with an overpowering curveball. I can also mix in a changeup if I need to.”

Laurila: You consider yourself a power pitcher…

Beeter: “Yeah. For sure.”

Laurila: Has that always been the case?

Beeter: “I actually didn’t pitch until my last two years of high school. I was a shortstop and then they just kind of threw me on the mound because I had a good arm. I realized I could throw pretty hard for that age, but then I went to college to pitch and my velo kept increasing. So I guess I became that — I became a power pitcher — more so after Tommy John.” Read the rest of this entry »

Bobby Miller doesn’t lack for confidence, and for good reason. Ranked No. 8 on our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospects list, the 22-year-old right-hander pairs electric stuff with a first-round pedigree. Selected 29th overall last year out of the University of Louisville, Miller excelled against SEC competition, and he’s gotten off to an excellent start in pro ball. Pitching for the High-A Great Lakes Loons, he’s allowed just eight hits and two runs, with 17 strikeouts, in five starts comprising 14.1 innings.

Miller talked about his growth as a pitcher, and the power arsenal he takes to the mound, following his last outing.

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David Laurila: How would you describe yourself as a pitcher?

Bobby Miller: “I’d like to say I’m the most confident person out there. Other than that, I have velocity and a lot of other pitches. I’m four-seam, two-seam, changeup, slider, curveball. I’m also working on a different slider right now. But yeah, I’m always going to bring the energy out there. No doubt about that. I think that’s a good way to describe me.”

Laurila: Is being “the most confident guy out there” ever a negative?

Miller: “No, I don’t think so. Not at all. I think it can help pick the rest of our team up, as well. Depending on how the game is going… maybe it’s a super-close game. I like to show how confident I am.”

Laurila: How about when you’re getting hit? Are you going to keep challenging hitters?

Miller: “I’m always going to keep challenging hitters, no matter how good or bad I’m doing. Whatever is working for me best that day, I’m going to stick with that until they prove they can do something with it. If they do, then I start going to my other stuff.”

Laurila: Do you identify as a power-pitcher? Read the rest of this entry »