A lot of different types of players get sent to the Arizona Fall League by their parent clubs: prospects who have lost time due to injury, org arms there to soak up enough innings for the league to function, guys eligible for the Rule 5 Draft whose teams aren’t yet sold on putting them on the 40-man roster, and, quite often, the most talented and exciting players in minor league baseball. It’s a rich and robust tapestry.

Now that the league’s action has commenced, one use of the AFL is to provide a sort of decontextualized look at some of the players whose strong performance in 2025 was already cause for some re-evaluation. Here’s one player from each AFL roster who arrived with some helium, prompting us to ask if they’ve changed their scouting report, or are just progressively improving into the player we expected.

Glendale Desert Dogs
Sam Antonacci, 2B, White Sox
2025 FV: Honorable Mention

Not only did the White Sox trade for Chase Meidroth months after giving Antonacci a slightly over-slot bonus in the fifth round of the 2024 draft, their Double-A Birmingham affiliate won the Southern League while slotting Antonacci in as the third straight feisty little bat-to-ball maven at the top of their lineup behind Rikuu Nishida and William Bergolla. At six feet, he’s a bit taller, but similar to Meidroth, below-average thump and a dearth of the athleticism necessary to drive a shortstop projection cooled early scouting reads for Antonacci, and he was an honorable mention for us on the White Sox list in April. Despite only playing his junior season there after two years of Division II ball, Antonacci is so Coastal Carolina-pilled that 35 hit by pitches form a substantial part of the .433 OBP he held over his first full pro season. (That he has yet to be plunked in his first three AFL games has to be, one would imagine, a source of deep personal disappointment.) Read the rest of this entry »

Man, am I tired of writing about the Dodgers and Phillies. I mean some of that narrowly – this is my second recap of these two financial juggernauts facing off in the past 24 hours, which means I’ve spent more time pondering these two teams than sleeping lately. I mostly mean it broadly, though. We get it, the Dodgers and Phillies are the best two teams in the NL every year. I hear you, they each have a slugging lefty DH who hit 50 homers and has a rabid following. It’s true, they have a former MVP lefty first baseman who departed his longtime NL East team and got a big sack of money for it. Oh, how original, a slight-of-stature righty shortstop who is a dynamic offensive player anyway. A slugging right-handed right fielder who honestly shouldn’t be playing defense? Yup. Endless stacks of pitchers? Sure thing, buddy, nothing but the best for these two.

Maybe it’s my lack of attachment to either team that makes me so tired of seeing them in October. Philadelphia’s “Oh, we’re a bunch of plucky underdogs” act? Exhausting. The Phillies have a $300 million payroll. Dodgers Baseball And Capital Appreciation Corporation employees executing carefully workshopped “dances” to simulate “fun” after base hits? No one’s buying it. But I don’t think it’s just the neutrals. My guess is that even fans of these clubs are sick of it at this point. Everything that annoys you about your opponent in this series is exactly what annoys the rest of us about your team. They even have obnoxious fanbases – not every fan, obviously, but come on, even Dodgers and Phillies partisans will agree with me on this one. Can’t we have someone else?

We can’t, of course. These teams have all the stars! Of course they’re always in the playoffs! And even more confusingly for me, you’re presumably here because you find this series interesting. If you just wanted to know the score, well, they publish those right away. So bear with me. The teams might be overexposed and easy to root against, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be a good recap. Just follow Emperor Palpatine’s advice and let the hate flow through you. Read the rest of this entry »

Shutting down the Dodgers offense has been one of the toughest assignments in baseball this October. A series of great opposing pitchers, including Cy Young candidates aplenty, surrendered 27 runs in their first four playoff games. Sure, the Los Angeles pitching has been great too, but you can score on the Dodgers. The difficulty has been with stopping their unending procession of base-clearing prowess.

The Phillies seemed to be well suited to stopping the Dodgers, but that was before Los Angeles won the first two games in Philadelphia. Even worse, the Dodgers sent ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the mound, so limiting the offense figured to be even more important than normal. That’s too much work for one starter, so Rob Thomson turned to Aaron Nola and Ranger Suárez looking for a tandem performance. As it turned out, that decision was inspired. Along with two Schwarbombs, the Nola-Suárez piggyback propelled the Phillies to an 8-2 win at Dodger Stadium and postponed elimination for at least one more night.

Nola has had a rough year. He missed three months with injury, and looked much diminished when he did pitch en route to posting the worst single-season ERA (6.01) and FIP (4.58) marks of his long, decorated career. He wasn’t in this game for a long time, but he was in it for a good time. He came out absolutely jacked, with his velocity up two to three ticks and a snapping knuckle-curveball that hearkened back to his form of a few years ago. It didn’t click right away – Shohei Ohtani scorched a line drive for an out and then Mookie Betts tripled – but Nola buckled down, blew away Teoscar Hernández with a beautiful curve, and escaped the inning unscathed. He kept it going through a perfect second, perhaps as far as he was ever expected to go. Read the rest of this entry »

PHILADELPHIA – If the lesson to learn from Game 1 of the NLDS is that nobody’s perfect, the lesson to learn from Game 2 is that some pitchers come close. Blake Snell and Jesús Luzardo delivered the kind of pitchers’ duel to warm the hearts of dyspeptic ex-pros who should have to drop a quarter in the swear jar whenever they start a sentence with, “Back in my day…” Snell allowed only a single hit against four walks and nine strikeouts in six innings of work; Luzardo, after a tricky first inning, recorded 17 straight outs.

After watching a blank scoreboard for the first two-thirds of the game, both teams cracked under the strain in the endgame. The two clubs followed this pair of near-perfect pitching performances with a manifestly imperfect bottom of the ninth, as both teams committed blunders in tactics and execution that threw a settled game into chaos.

The final score: Dodgers 4, Phillies 3. In this heavyweight bout, the Dodgers are one win away from a knockout victory. Read the rest of this entry »

He doesn’t garner much press — at least not outside of Tigers territory — but Will Vest has developed into one of baseball’s better relievers. The 30-year-old right-hander has appeared in 181 games for Detroit over the past three seasons and logged a 2.93 ERA and a 2.71 ERA over 187-and-a-third innings. Moreover, he is currently the team’s closer. Vest’s 2025 ledger includes 23 saves to go with a 3.01 ERA and a 2.71 FIP, and he recorded the final out in both of the club’s Wild Card wins over Cleveland. If the Tigers go on to beat the Mariners in the ALDS, Vest will likely have played a key role.

He could easily be pitching for Seattle. As related by Dan Hubbs in a piece that ran here at FanGraphs two weeks ago, the Mariners took Vest in December 2020’s Rule-5 draft, only to return him to the Tigers the following July. Hubbs had departed as Detroit’s director of pitching development by the time Vest was reacquired, but he was, and remains to this day, bullish on the righty’s raw ability.

Vest was one of three pitchers (Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal were the others) whose development process the now-Athletics’ bullpen coach looked back on in the September 23 article. Spin rates that were “off the charts” was an attribute Hubbs saw in the then-under-the-radar prospect, as were “good movement profiles on everything he threw.” For the young hurler, success at baseball’s highest level “was just a matter of him getting comfortable competing in the strike zone.“

What are Vest’s memories of working with Hubbs, and in which ways has he continued to develop in the years that have followed? Read the rest of this entry »

PHILADELPHIA – It’s dangerous to draw conclusions from one game of a playoff series, but after Game 1 of the NLDS, you can take this lesson to the bank: Nobody’s perfect.

Cristopher Sánchez was on the verge of completing six imperious innings, until the last three batters he faced — the last pitch he threw, really — sent the Phillies into a spiral. Teoscar Hernández committed a borderline-unforgivable defensive gaffe, then atoned with interest by the end of the night with a game-winning three-run homer.

Shohei Ohtani, making history by leading off a playoff game as a starting pitcher, looked not just like a two-way player but like two different people. Ohtani has seldom looked so hapless at the plate, striking out in each of his first four plate appearances. He made a slightly less glorious brand of history, becoming the sixth player in the pitch tracking era to strike out looking three times in a playoff game.

But on the other hand. Ohtani came out the winning pitcher: nine strikeouts in six innings, with just four baserunners allowed. Hernández’s seventh-inning homer off Matt Strahm made the difference in a 5-3 Dodger win. Read the rest of this entry »

Meat + bread + mess are one of the most iconic food combinations known to humanity. Two of my favorites are classics of Philadelphia and Los Angeles, wonderful amalgamations that make a sloppy mess of whiz or jus go down my chin and, too often, the shirt that I’m wearing. I’ve always lived in the eastern part of the United States, so I have more practical experience with cheesesteak locations (I’m partial to Dalessandro’s and John’s Roast Pork). But the French dip is wonderful as well — I have at least gotten to try it at Philippe the Original — and I also love its cousin, quesabirria. Whichever you prefer, you’re choosing from two of the heavy hitters in good, casual food.

I’m not talking about deliciousness because I’m hungry, even though it’s almost dinnertime, but because the Dodgers and Phillies play a similar role in baseball: They’re not everyone’s favorites, but they’re two of the most successful franchises of the last 15 years, and if you’re an NL team, there’s a good chance you’ll have to go through one or both of these teams en route to a championship. Read the rest of this entry »

The noble tiger is a rare beast, but Wednesday night, there was a sighting in Los Angeles. A NOBLETIGER, for those of you who are perhaps less online than I am, is a contrived but delightful acronym: No Outs Bases Loaded Ending in Team Incapable of Getting Easy Run. In other words, it’s a team going from bases loaded and nobody out to a scoreless inning, and Cincinnati’s feline accomplishment felt like the last moment before it was washed away by the crushing tide of Los Angeleno excellence.

The Reds started Game 2 of their Wild Card Series against the Dodgers with a burst of energy. A hit-by-pitch, a fielding error, a slashed groundball single, and suddenly the underdogs were up 2-0 on the indomitable Yoshinobu Yamamoto. They struggled to find much more traction against him for the next three innings, nine up and nine down, but those initial two runs gave them a bulwark against the perpetual Dodger onslaught on the other side of the field.

Zack Littell, Yamamoto’s counterpart, wasn’t quite as sharp, but he held the Dodgers at bay with smoke and mirrors for three innings. In the fourth, the constant pressure became too much; the bottom half of the Dodgers order struck for two runs, putting them up 3-2, and the Reds called in Nick Lodolo from the bullpen to escape the inning. After the teams exchanged scoreless frames in the fifth, the stage was set for our fateful inning.
Read the rest of this entry »

Dansby Swanson brought home back-to-back Gold Gloves in 2022 with the Braves and ’23 with the Cubs while leading the majors in Statcast’s Fielding Run Value in both seasons. Although he hasn’t added any hardware to his collection since then, and while his defensive metrics have slipped, he still grades out as comfortably above average in both FRV and Defensive Runs Saved. His defensive acumen was on display in Tuesday’s Wild Card Series opener between the Cubs and Padres, as he made a couple of pivotal, run-saving plays in Chicago’s 3-1 victory.

The Padres had taken the lead in the second inning, when Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts opened the frame with back-to-back doubles off Matthew Boyd; Bogaerts took third when center fielder Pete Crow-Armstrong’s relay spurted away from Nico Hoerner at second base. Ryan O’Hearn then hit a sizzling 101-mph groundball, and Swanson, who was shaded up the middle, dove to his right to stop it. He looked Bogaerts back to third base, then threw to first for the out. The play loomed large as Bogaerts ended up stranded.

The Padres threatened again in the fourth, when Manny Machado drew a leadoff walk and took second on Merrill’s sacrifice bunt. Bogaerts legged out a chopper into the no-man’s land to the right of the mound for an infield single, and San Diego appeared poised to capitalize when O’Hearn hit a flare into shallow center field. Swanson had other ideas, making a great over-the-shoulder snag of the ball, then in one motion turning to fire home to keep Machado honest.

Read the rest of this entry »

The margins were so thin on this first day of the 2025 postseason. Aces shoved, the games stayed close, and the high-leverage innings piled up; the first six teams to play combined for just 11 runs. At this unusual time of the year — when the patient regular season gives way to a best-of-three all-out sprint, when managers summon a flame-throwing reliever at the first sign of trouble — even a momentary slip in form can spell the end of the contest. And so it was for Hunter Greene in the third inning of the Dodgers’ (mostly) emphatic 10-5 win over the Reds in Game 1 of their NL Wild Card Series showdown. Greene faltered, the Dodgers capitalized, and Los Angeles gained a crucial series lead.

It seemed like this last game of the day would be yet another tightly contested pitchers’ duel. The Dodgers hurler, Blake Snell, headed into Tuesday night’s matchup in fine form, spinning a 2.01 FIP in September. He held up his end of the bargain, striking out nine Reds over seven innings, bullying the heavily right-handed lineup with hard heaters in and feathery changeups away. But for about 10 minutes, Greene was a touch off, and that was that. The Reds never really got back into the game after that four-run third inning, even as the shaky Los Angeles bullpen briefly stirred up a scene in the late innings. Read the rest of this entry »