As Dan Szymborski pointed out in his ALCS preview, ZiPS saw the Gerrit Cole vs. Tanner Bibee face-off in Game 2 at Yankee Stadium (and the potential rematch in Game 6) as the most lopsided matchup in the series. It’s not hard to see why. The Yankees looked like (and still look like) the better team. They have the better no. 1 starter. And they had home field advantage.

At the same time, you can see why the Guardians might have liked their chances entering Game 2. Bibee is their only starter who Stephen Vogt can trust to throw five innings; he pitched into the fifth in each of his starts against the Tigers in the ALDS. If he could give his team some length in Game 2, they could close out the contest with a barrage of well-rested bullpen studs: Tim Herrin, Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, and Emmanuel Clase. Simply put, the Guardians can look like a completely different team with those five arms pitching all nine innings. I imagine the projections wouldn’t have been so lopsided if Bibee, Herrin, Gaddis, Smith, and Clase were guaranteed to pitch the full game.

Unfortunately for the Guardians, Bibee couldn’t make it out of the second inning on Tuesday, let alone the fifth. Meanwhile, it was the Yankees whose airtight bullpen secured the win. New York also had a little help from nearly everyone in the lineup, powering the Yankees to a 6-3 victory and putting them up 2-0 in the best-of-seven ALCS.

Cole made quick work of the Guardians in the top of the first. Bibee couldn’t do the same in the bottom of the frame. Gleyber Torres hit a 3-1 fastball into left field for a leadoff double, and Juan Soto drilled a single into right, putting runners on the corners for Aaron Judge. We all know what happened next. Judge hit a towering shot 103.3 mph off the bat and the Yankees took the lead. And to clarify, by “towering shot” I mean “towering infield popup,” and by “took the lead” I mean “took a 1-0 lead when Gold Glove finalist Brayan Rocchio dropped the popup and Torres scored from third.”

Bibee worked his way out of the inning without any more trouble (aided by a nice sliding catch by right fielder Will Brennan), but a seven-pitch at-bat from Jazz Chisholm Jr. ran up his pitch count before he escaped. The righty was at 27 pitches by the end of the first.

Cole allowed his first baserunner in the second when Josh Naylor pulled one of his high fastballs into right field for a single, but the Yankees ace settled in after that. A first-pitch fly out from Lane Thomas, a three-pitch strikeout of Brennan, and a foul pop out by Andrés Giménez got Cole out of the inning with his pitch count after two frames barely higher than Bibee’s after one; he looked comfortable.

Bibee came out for the second with a clean slate and a chance to settle in against the bottom of the Yankees order. Instead, Anthony Volpe chopped Bibee’s two-strike putaway pitch over the mound and into center field for a single, and Anthony Rizzo laced a fastball to right center for a single of his own. For the second time in as many innings, the Yankees had runners on the corners with no outs, and while that’s not nearly as scary with Alex Verdugo at the plate, it turned out to be a bigger problem for Bibee than it was in the first. Verdugo doubled past a dancing umpire in left field, scoring Volpe and putting New York up 2-0.

After that, the Yankees had runners on second and third. There were still no outs. The top of the order was due up. The time was ripe for drama, and the game delivered. Here’s what happened next: 1) Mound visit. 2) Smith starts getting loose in the bullpen. 3) Torres pops out. 4) Another mound visit. 5) Vogt intentionally walks Soto to load the bases for Judge. 6) Vogt calls for a pitching change.

There’s a lot to unpack here. For one thing, Bibee’s day was done after 39 pitches and four outs. The Guardians would need at least another 23 outs from the bullpen if they were going to win the game. Bibee never looked awful, and in a regular season game he would have gotten the chance to work his way out of the jam. Maybe he could have done it. Still, the Yankees were clearly seeing his pitches well and hitting them hard. Part of the problem might have been that the sinker he used as a valuable weapon in his first two postseason starts was nowhere to be seen.

Meanwhile, this was only the second time a team has intentionally walked Soto to face Judge. I’m not sure I agree with Vogt’s decision, but at least in this case, it’s clear what he was thinking. With runners on second and third, any ball in play could potentially drive in a run. Soto is better than Judge at putting the ball in play. Furthermore, with Soto on first, a double play ball from Judge could get the Guardians out of the inning. No AL batter hit into more double plays this past season than Judge. Walking Soto may have increased the Yankees’ run expectancy, but Vogt must have thought it would also increase his team’s chances of escaping the inning without any further damage. That was his priority.

We all know what happened next. Judge hit a high fastball out to center field, and the Yankees padded their lead. And to clarify, I’m talking about a sacrifice fly. Smith didn’t get the big strikeout or the double play, but he managed to avoid the worst-case scenario, retiring Austin Wells to end the threat.

“They were hitting the ball around the ballpark, and we needed to stop the game,” Vogt said. “In that situation, you want to try to get a double play ball. You want to try to get two outs with one pitch. You want to try to find a way to get out of that inning, and Cade did a great job doing that.”

After another scoreless inning from Cole, Smith returned for the bottom of the third and retired the side. He threw almost exclusively fastballs, and he didn’t need anything else to stymie the Yankees. There’s a reason his four-seamer was the most valuable pitch in the league this season. If Smith’s performance was any indication, perhaps the Guardians bullpen could keep them in the game over six more innings. Still, the offense would need to get something going against Cole for any of the bullpen’s efforts to matter.

The elder Naylor brother led off the fourth with his second single of the game, sending another high fastball to right field for a base hit. Thomas came up next and reached on a tapper that Chisholm tried to steal from Volpe. Neither of them came up with the ball, and it was ruled an infield hit. After a groundout from Brennan put runners on second and third, a cautious Cole walked Giménez on four pitchers, loading the bases and prompting Vogt to make an early substitution: David Fry came in to bat for catcher Bo Naylor.

It wasn’t an ideal situation to use Fry, who is much better suited to pinch-hit against left-handers, but Vogt must have wanted anyone other than Naylor taking that crucial plate appearance. Regrettably, Fry popped out on the first pitch he saw. That sent the nine-hole hitter Rocchio to the plate with two outs and the bases loaded. He put up a real effort, driving up Cole’s pitch count with a nine-pitch at-bat, but ultimately the ace won out, getting the rookie to strike out looking on a perfectly placed curveball on the upper outside corner of the strike zone.

The left-handed Herrin was the next man out of Cleveland’s ‘pen, and while he gave up a two-out single to the righty-batting Torres, he used his balanced arsenal to retire all three lefties he faced: Rizzo, Verdugo, and Soto. After four innings, Smith and Herrin had kept the Yankees lead at a manageable 3-0, and the Guardians bats finally did some damage in the top of the fifth.

Cole’s fifth inning started out a lot like his fourth. He gave up two hits and a walk to load the bases, and this time, he couldn’t wriggle his way out. Josh Naylor drove in Steven Kwan on a sacrifice fly, and Thomas drew a walk. It was Cole’s fourth walk of the game, and also his last; with the bases loaded again and only one out, Aaron Boone called for Clay Holmes. Holmes gave up another run on a fielder’s choice and walked the bases loaded again, but weak-hitting catcher Austin Hedges, who replaced Fry, struck out to end the inning. The Yankees had a 3-2 lead.

With half the game still to play, Vogt was always going to need to use a reliever outside of his trusted core, and he did so in the fifth, handing the ball to Eli Morgan. Yet, Morgan may have been the most effective Guardians reliever of the game. He was excellent, getting three fly balls on six pitches to sit down Judge, Wells, and Stanton in order. After that, the Yankees sent Tim Hill (their own left-handed Tim H.) to the mound, and he, too, produced a 1-2-3 inning, retiring Rocchio, Kwan, and Kyle Manzardo.

With the lefty-heavy lower portion of the Yankees’ order due up, Vogt called on rookie southpaw Erik Sabrowski next. Sabrowski made his major league debut on September 4 and had just eight regular-season appearances under his belt by the time he made the Guardians’ playoff roster. But across those eight appearances, he pitched 12 2/3 scoreless innings, and then he added two more innings without allowing a run in the ALDS. If could pitch a clean sixth, then Gaddis and Clase might be able to handle the rest of the game. Unfortunately, it turned out to be too much to ask from the inexperienced hurler. On Monday, Sabrowski gave up the first run of his big league career – a home run to Stanton. Then, in Game 2, Vogt asked him to pitch on back-to-back days for the first time as a major leaguer. That’s not easy.

Sabrowski started the inning by giving up a double to Chisholm and walking Volpe to bring up Rizzo, but a baserunning blunder briefly bailed him out. Chisholm left too early from second base on what Boone said after the game was supposed to be an attempted double steal, and Sabrowski picked him off. Rizzo came through after that, doubling in Volpe (with help from a fielding error by Brennan) and bumping the lead to 4-2.

Sabrowski stayed in to face Verdugo, who flied out, before Vogt went to Pedro Avila to face the top of New York’s order. Though, as it turns out, Avila wouldn’t end up needing to retire a single batter. This time it was Rizzo’s turn to TOOTBLAN. He misread a sweeper in the dirt and took off for third, thinking it had gone to the backstop. Instead, Hedges kicked out just enough to block it, got to his feet, and picked up the ball. At about this point, Rizzo realized that Hedges had the ball and halted between the bases, so Hedges pump-faked a throw to second to force Rizzo to decide which base he’d try to reach. He turned toward third and then shuffled a little in each direction, prompting Hedges to gallop toward him. Rizzo committed just enough to second base for Hedges to fire to Giménez, so Rizzo broke for third. Giménez threw to José Ramírez; Rizzo retreated. Ramírez then threw it to Giménez, and Rizzo ran to third again. Giménez sent it back to Ramírez, who finally tagged Rizzo to end the inning with a classic 2-4-5-4-5 putout.

Hill came back out in the seventh and quickly retired Ramírez and Naylor, before Boone brought in Tommy Kahnle to face Thomas. Thomas drew a walk, but Kahnle got Brennan to ground out and end the frame.

Although Avila had thrown only three pitches, there was no question that Vogt would turn to Gaddis in the seventh. Torres led things off with his third hit of the game, and after Soto flied out, Judge stepped to the plate. Facing a dominant right-handed reliever, Judge finally, actually did exactly what you’d expect him to do, crushing his first home run of the postseason to give the Yankees a 6-2 lead:

Dating back to September, Judge had gone more than 30 trips to the plate without a home run. That wouldn’t be so noteworthy for most hitters, but it was a veritable drought for Judge, who homered once every 12.14 plate appearances during the regular season.

Gaddis stayed in for one more batter, but with the game no longer close, Vogt went back to the ‘pen and asked Ben Lively, who was added to the ALCS roster on Tuesday in place of an injured Alex Cobb, to finish the game. Needless to say, Clase never needed to warm up. On the bright side for the Guardians, at least that means the Yankees have yet to see his stuff this series.

After Kahnle and Lively each pitched a scoreless eighth inning, Cleveland came to bat one more time in the top of the ninth. Somewhat surprisingly, Boone chose closer Luke Weaver to pitch in that spot, even though the Yankees were up by four and Weaver had recorded a multi-inning save the night before. Evidently, Boone wasn’t taking any chances as he sought to secure the win.

Facing Ramírez for the second time in as many days, Weaver gave up a solo home run to the Guardians’ best hitter, snapping his scoreless streak at 18 1/3 innings. Like Judge, Ramírez had been rather quiet in the postseason before his Game 2 blast, and it was a welcome sign of life for Ramírez and the Cleveland offense. However, that home run was all the Guards could muster against Weaver, and the Yankees closer ultimately secured his team’s 6-3 win.

The Yankees were far from perfect on Tuesday night. Cole labored through 4 1/3 innings, giving up six hits and four walks. The offense was 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position. Chisholm and Rizzo were each picked off second base (in the same inning, no less!). Still, seven of the nine hitters in the starting lineup recorded at least one hit. Torres, Soto, and Rizzo continued to hit the ball well, while Volpe had a terrific game of his own. Most importantly, the bullpen threw 4 2/3 innings, giving up just two hits and one run. Hill and Kahnle, in particular, were excellent, and for most of the game, it looked as if the bullpen was going to have to be near-perfect to close out a close contest. Then, of course, Judge made it not so close after all.

As for the Guardians, they needed a longer outing from Bibee, and they needed more from an offense that has averaged less than four runs per game during the playoffs. Moving forward, they’ll need a better plan than hoping for their bullpen to be perfect. As Gaddis demonstrated on Tuesday, that’s just not something they can always count on.

NEW YORK — The Yankees’ road to an AL-best 94 wins wasn’t the smoothest ride. They overcame significant injuries, and at times dealt with a lack of production from just about everybody besides Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Even as they fought off the Orioles for the AL East flag, they struggled to find the right mix in the bullpen, as All-Star closer Clay Holmes suddenly struggled to lock down the ninth inning. A September shuffle that put Luke Weaver in the closer’s slot has paid big dividends, however, and so far in this postseason, the Yankees bullpen has been a difference-maker. In Monday night’s American League Championship Series opener against the Guardians, Weaver notched a five-out save to preserve a 5-2 victory.

The 31-year-old Weaver — a former first-round pick who until September 6 had never recorded a major league save — has pitched in every Yankees playoff game thus far. He closed out all three Division Series wins against the Royals, going four outs in Game 1 and five outs in Game 3; he also made a one-out cameo in Game 2, New York’s lone defeat. In six shutout innings, he’s allowed just two hits and one walk while striking out nine of the 21 batters he’s faced (42.9%).

In fact, the Yankees bullpen has allowed just two runs (one unearned) in 18 2/3 postseason innings, for a 0.48 ERA. The unit as a whole has surrendered just 11 hits and five walks while striking out 20 (28.2%). Holmes, like Weaver, has pitched every game and has thrown six scoreless innings himself, striking out four while yielding just three hits and one walk.

“Comfortable is not quite the right word. I think tonight was a little bit of a grind for me personally,” said Weaver of Monday night’s 24-pitch save. “I felt really good coming in in the eighth. The ninth, coming back out for the first hitter was a little sloppy, I think that was noticeable. The windup just felt a little funky. I felt the adrenaline coming out of the eighth, [but] going back out for the ninth, was a little depleted… I felt like it was a tick down.”

After Weaver walked Lane Thomas on five pitches to lead off the ninth, he gave himself a bit of a pep talk, flashing a bit of humor as he explained. “So when Thomas got on, it just became like, ‘What are we doing? The fans don’t come here to watch that.’ So I was able to throw some good pitches, and was looking for the double play, but was able to get these good counts.”

Weaver went long because the Guardians had threatened to tie the game. Starter Carlos Rodón had dominated for six innings, holding Cleveland to just three hits while striking out nine without a walk, generating 25 whiffs along the way; meanwhile the Yankees built up a 4-0 lead against starter Alex Cobb and reliever Joey Cantillo, who threw four wild pitches and walked three while retiring just one hitter. The Guardians cut the lead to 4-1 when no. 9 hitter Brayan Rocchio led off the sixth inning with a solo homer off Rodón.

As was the case in the Yankees’ two ALDS wins in Kansas City, Holmes was the first number called by manager Aaron Boone. He didn’t waste much time, inducing Thomas to hit his second pitch, a 96-mph sinker on the outside edge, for a soft groundout. He fell behind Josh Naylor 2-1 before Naylor lined a high-and-away sinker to center field for a routine out. Holmes capped his night by battling pinch-hitter Kyle Manzardo (hitting for right fielder Jhonkensy Noel) for eight pitches before striking him out chasing a low-and-inside sweeper.

“He’s been the nastiest guy we’ve had out there,” said Weaver of Holmes’ middle relief work. “He’s absolutely setting the tone.”

With no off day before Game 2, and with two lefties and a switch-hitter looming, the lane was clear for lefty Tim Hill to pitch the eighth. Guardians manager Stephen Vogt swapped out lefty Bo Naylor for righty Austin Hedges, an even weaker hitter despite the platoon advantage; he flied out. Andrés Giménez followed with a single, and then Rocchio shot a single under the glove of first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who was back in the lineup for the first time since fracturing two fingers on his right hand on September 29. Rounding first, Rocchio made contact with Hill, who in moving to cover the bag ended up right in the baseline. Though the pitcher had the ball and tagged Rocchio once he retreated, the umpires ruled he had already committed obstruction, and awarded Rocchio second base.

Giménez scored on Steven Kwan’s single, offsetting Giancarlo Stanton’s solo homer in the top of the frame; it was the first earned run surrendered by the Yankees bullpen this postseason. That prompted Boone to summon Weaver, who fanned pinch-hitter Will Brennan (batting for David Fry) on three low pitches, the last a changeup in the dirt, then induced José Ramírez to ground out to second base.

In the ninth, after walking Thomas, Weaver recovered to strike out the side. Naylor chased a low-and-away changeup. Daniel Schneemann battled to a full count, then tipped a 95-mph four-seamer into Austin Wells’ mitt for the second out. Finally, Weaver blew Hedges away on three pitches, giving the Yankees a 1-0 series lead. 

Afterward, pitching coach Matt Blake praised Weaver’s command as the key to his success in working long. “His ability to get in the strike zone early and be effective and be efficient with his pitch counts — he can collect outs quickly and he’ll strike guys out, but he doesn’t have to do seven or eight pitches to get there.”

While the save may not have been easy, Weaver still looked like a pitcher who had been doing the job of shutting the door for much longer than six weeks. A year ago, the role would have been unthinkable. Weaver was designated for assignment twice in 2023, first by the Reds on August 16 — a point at which he briefly wondered if he’d reached the end of the line — and then by the Mariners on September 10. Even with three solid September starts for the Yankees, he finished with a 6.40 ERA, his second season in a row and his third out of four above 6.00; to that point across eight partial seasons in the majors, he owned a 5.14 ERA in 574 1/3 innings, mainly as a starter.

The Yankees had seen some traits in Weaver’s spin rate, arsenal, and clean mechanics that they believed they could tweak, and Weaver embraced the possibilities. Over the winter, he simplifid his delivery, ditching a high leg kick and adopting a slide step. He also adjusted the grips of his four-seam fastball — previously, his middle finger wasn’t in contact with a seam, costing him spin efficiency — and his changeup, helping him generate more spin. Needing to throw 15–20 pitches per outing instead of 80–100, he gained velocity, and recovered more quickly. Two weeks ago, Weaver likened the streamlining to a runner with smoother, tighter arm swings and less wasted energy.

Working out of the bullpen allowed Weaver to ditch his less effective knuckle curve, slider, and sweeper. The changes “helped bring some earlier contact, less foul balls, less getting beat on the pitch,” as he said on Monday. “I think it’s really just the perfect storm of better movement and more confidence.”

For the season, Weaver pitched to a 2.89 ERA and 3.33 FIP with a 31.1% strikeout rate in 62 appearances totaling 84 innings. As Marquee Sports’ Lance Brodzowski noted, the vertical separation between Weaver’s fastball and changeup increased from about 8 inches last year (16 inches of induced vertical break for the four-seamer, 8.2 for the changeup) to about 14 inches this year (18.6 inches for the four-seamer, 4.6 for the changeup). The results on those two pitches improved dramatically:

At the outset of the season, the Yankees saw Weaver as a potential sixth starter who could provide multiple relief innings in lower-leverage situations. He allowed seven runs in 10 2/3 innings over his first six appearances, but graduated to a higher-leverage role by reeling off 18 consecutive scoreless innings from April 20 through May 20, giving up just five hits and two walks while striking out 24.

Weaver endured some midseason ups and downs, posting a 3.66 ERA and 4.60 FIP across 32 appearances from May 22 through the end of July. Meanwhile, a whole drama unfolded around Holmes. Through June 9, the 31-year-old sinkerballer allowed runs in just two of his first 30 games, posting a 1.23 ERA and 2.22 FIP. Despite scuffling a bit over the rest of the first half, he made his second All-Star team in three years on the strength of a 2.77 ERA and 2.73 FIP. Even so, he’d already set a career high with six blown saves in 27 chances, owing largely to a .342 BABIP. He blew two of his first three save opportunities coming out of the break; one of those blown saves came in an eventual 7-6 win over the Phillies on July 30, hours after the trade deadline passed.

After jumping out to a surprising 40-19 start without the injured Gerrit Cole, the Yankees went just 25-26 in June and July; the swing merely dropped them from two games ahead of the Orioles to half a game back, but without Holmes’ blown saves, they might have enjoyed a bit of breathing room. At the deadline, even as general manager Brian Cashman supplemented the bullpen by adding Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs and Enyel De Los Santos from the Padres, Holmes remained Boone’s ninth-inning guy despite increasing scrutiny and pressure. In his role as team captain, Judge expressed his support for Holmes after the Phillies game, which saw the pitcher surrender a one-run lead on two singles, two groundouts, and a wild pitch:

Aaron Judge on Clay Holmes:

"That's our closer. I don't know what else to tell you. That's our guy. He's been our guy. I want him out there in any situation, bases loaded and no outs or extra innings or bottom nine, top nine — that's our guy. You can ask anyone in this room if…

— Chris Kirschner (@ChrisKirschner) July 31, 2024

Holmes pitched better in August, but still blew two saves, making him just the fifth pitcher over the last decade to reach double digits in that category. By the numbers, which included a 2.67 ERA and 2.48 FIP through August, his season was in line with his 2022 and ’23 campaigns except for a few extra barrels, but the late-inning losses helped keep the Orioles around. As I noted on September 4 while writing about the Yankees’ left field situation, Boone’s avoidance of publicly acknowledging the struggles of both Holmes and Alex Verdugo may have earned loyalty within the Yankees’ clubhouse (and apparently the rest of the organization), but only wound up a frustrated fan base and invited media scrutiny. Things reached a breaking point on September 3, when Holmes served up a walk-off grand slam to the Rangers’ Wyatt Langford. Boone finally addressed the situation the next day: “In the short term, we’ll kind of just get a little creative” with a closer-by-committee arrangement.

He never did have to get too creative. On September 6, he called upon Weaver to close out a 3-0 lead against the Cubs, and the righty did the job, striking out two in the process. “I couldn’t see straight. I was blacked out for the most part. I was on pure adrenaline, but it was a great time,” Weaver said. He went 4-for-4 in save chances, and allowed just one run (unearned) in 11 innings after taking over the role; most impressively, he struck out 24 of 40 hitters in that capacity (60%) while giving up just four hits and three runs. With Holmes in a setup role, things clicked into place for a remade bullpen that included the additions of lefties Hill (who had been released by the White Sox in late June) and Tim Mayza (released by the Blue Jays in early July) and the returns of righties Tommy Kahnle and Ian Hamilton from injuries; the former didn’t debut until May 22 due to a bout of shoulder soreness, while the latter was shelved from May 28 until September 7 due to a lat strain. From September 6 onward, the Yankees bullpen threw 81 innings with a 2.00 ERA, a 3.04 FIP, and a major league-best 32.5% strikeout rate.

Since October rolled around, New York’s relievers have been even better. And now, they’ve helped bring the Yankees within three wins of their first trip to the World Series since 2009.

This is the Carlos Rodón the Yankees thought they were getting. When Brian Cashman inked the lefty to a six-year, $162-million contract in December 2022, Rodón was coming off a two-season stretch in which he’d gone 27-13 with a 2.67 ERA, 2.42 FIP, and 12.23 strikeouts per nine innings. From 2021 to 2022, his 11.2 WAR ranked the third among all pitchers. But, like Samson of old, Rodón’s strength deserted him when his beard fell victim to the Yankees’ facial-hair policy. A forearm strain and a hamstring issue limited him to 14 starts in 2023, and when he did take the hill, he ran an unsightly 6.85 ERA. He was better this season, but he was by no means the ace the Bronx faithful were expecting.

That guy finally showed up on Monday night. Rodón powered the Yankees to a 5-2 victory over the Guardians in Game 1 of the American League Championship Series, going six dominant innings and allowing one earned run on a solo homer. He blew his fastball by the Guardians and tempted them over and over again into chasing his slider as it burrowed into the dirt. Read the rest of this entry »

We’re now down to our final two teams in the American League, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, who will hash things out in the best-of-seven ALCS starting Monday in the Bronx. Baseball, like most sports, is at it’s peak for fun when there’s something to prove and a little bit of competitive vengeance worked into the mix.

It’s now been 15 years since the Yankees last won the World Series. Unlike their last long championship drought, during their mediocre 1980s and early ’90s, the Bombers have mostly been good since their 2009 title. They’ve made the postseason 10 times in that span and have played in five Championship Series (though they’ve failed to advance each time). Yes, the franchise that was once accused of destroying baseball because it was winning too many championships now draws scrutiny for lately having won too few. There are a lot of reasons for the organization’s relative lack of success lately, but many fans point to a mysterious blend of Brian Cashman, too much analytics, not enough bunting, and Aaron Boone, who at various points has been accused of being the worst manager to have ever existed. Until the 11th time’s the charm for the Yankees, nobody’s going to fear Mystique and Aura.

If the Yankees face a drought, the Guardians are dealing with one of Joadian proportions. Where the Yankees were emblematic as the big evil franchise, the theme among Cleveland baseball for a long time was ineptitude. When they filmed the movie Major League, there was little controversy as to which franchise would play the doormat protagonists. At least the Cubs were considered losers of the lovable ilk. The last 30 years represent the most successful epoch for Cleveland baseball, but the franchise is still lacking a World Series trophy during that span. The last time Cleveland won it all, in 1948, neither of my parents were even born yet, and I’m a man approaching 50 at a distressingly rapid rate. In three of its last four playoff appearances, Cleveland met its demise courtesy of the Yankees. So, of course, the Guardians’ path to the World Series runs through New York; eliminating the Yankees surely would elicit an extra dose of satisfaction.

But who will come out on top? I usually start with the ZiPS projections, because it would be an awfully strange approach to not use the projection system I have on my PC.

There will no doubt be some shifting as the series progresses, but I don’t think ZiPS would have a change in the basic story: These teams are fairly well-matched. All seven projected games stay within that 55/45 split, so it would be tough to call anyone a significant underdog. ZiPS is going a bit against the grain here; it was one of the outliers in liking the Guardians in the preseason.

So, where are the imbalances in this matchup?

The Yankees have the edge on offense because of their talent at the top of their lineup. Yes, José Ramírez is my pick for the most underrated player of this generation, someone who should be seen as a probable Hall of Famer despite rarely getting anywhere near the commensurate attention nationally. But he’s the Guardians’ only elite offensive talent, and we’re putting him up against Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at their peaks, which is a whole different tier of awesomeness. Looking at the Judge/Soto projections vs. Cleveland’s pitching makes clear just how perilous that portion of the Yankees lineup is going to be for the Guardians.

ZiPS thinks enough of Emmanuel Clase to make Judge mortal and thinks Matthew Boyd is just a good enough starter with a lefty split to stymie Soto a skosh. But you can’t avoid these two, and the Guardians don’t have any comparable sources of terror in their lineup. There’s a part of me that wonders if every team should use a solid reliever as an opener against the Yankees if it has a deep enough bullpen, simply because of the certainty of facing Judge and Soto in the first inning.

The drop-off after Judge and Soto is tremendous, however. Of the remaining seven hitters, ZiPS expects Gleyber Torres to have the highest on-base percentage (.335) and Giancarlo Stanton to be the only one with a slugging percentage above .450 (.462) against Cleveland’s lefty pitchers. Against righties, Jazz Chisholm Jr. has the highest projected OBP (.326) and SLG (.443) in the non-Judge/Soto department.

This gives the Guardians some interesting tactical possibilities using their bullpen. With the Yankees having two players with an unusually large proportion of their offensive firepower, it should be a bit easier for the Guards to sprinkle in lesser relievers based on just where they are in the lineup.

The difference between the rotations aren’t as large as one might think. While ZiPS thinks the Guardians have one of the weaker rotations in the playoffs this year, after Gerrit Cole – the best projected starter on either team – the Yankees aren’t all that frightening either. Carlos Rodón has the next best projection, but the Guardians have had a notable platoon split that favors matchups against lefties this season. Luis Gil is having a great rookie season and ought to appear prominently on most AL Rookie of the Year ballots, but ZiPS still sees him as a guy with an expected ERA someone around four, with Clarke Schmidt faring slightly worse.

Cleveland’s rotation finished 2024 with a 4.40 ERA and a 4.51 FIP, both toward the bottom of baseball. But the rotation isn’t that bad, simply because it has largely eliminated most of the sources of this lousiness. None of Carlos Carrasco, Triston McKenzie, or Logan Allen will face off against the Yankees this upcoming week. When looking at the four starters most likely to get starts for the Guardians, ZiPS sees Gavin Williams as the one with the highest projected ERA (4.17). ZiPS is less enamored with emergency options like Ben Lively and Joey Cantillo, but still has both of them on the sunny side of a 4.50 ERA/FIP. Cleveland’s starters don’t have a lot of pizazz, but like the breadsticks at Olive Garden, they’re serviceable and there’s a lot of them. Because they Guardians have a deep rotation, they don’t need to cobble together bullpen games just to survive, which allows manager Stephen Vogt to comfortably utilize the best projected bullpen in baseball right now in the highest-leverage situations.

For the Dodgers-Padres NLDS preview, I ran a simulation for how the probability changed if both teams had a game in which the starting pitcher got knocked out after two innings and the teams played one 15-inning game. In that one, the Padres gained five percentage points in the projection based on this scenario. The Guardians, meanwhile, gain 10 percentage points if we use the same two hypothetical events, going from slight underdogs at 47% to a mildly comfortable favorite at 57%!

Cleveland’s other advantage is having the better bench. The Guardians have myriad platoon options — David Fry or Jhonkensy Noel against lefties or Will Brennan and Kyle Manzardo against righties — and being able to deploy them for the right matchups is a small but real bit of value. Combine bench and bullpen and ZiPS thinks the Guardians have the edge in one-run games by a 54%-46% margin and a 52%-48% edge in games decided by two runs. Blowouts are most likely to go in the Yankees’ favor, but in those hard-fought close contests, the Yankees are slight underdogs.

The Yankees or Guardians will not face a juggernaut in the World Series if they make it through the ALCS. The Mets have some significant team weaknesses, and injuries have resulted in the Dodgers’ being kept together with a roll of duct tape. Whichever team wins these next (up to) seven games has a good chance of finally ending its title drought.

Even in an era brimming with colorful characters and exceptional hurlers, Luis Tiant stood out. The barrel-chested, mustachioed Cuban righty combined an assortment of exaggerated deliveries with a variety of arm angles and speeds that baffled hitters — and tantalized writers — over the course of a 19-year major league career (1964–82) and an affiliation with the game in one capacity or another that extended through the remainder of his life. “The Cuban Dervish,” as Sports Illustrated’s Ron Fimrite christened him in 1975, died last Tuesday at the age of 83. No cause of death was announced.

The son of a legendary left-hander colloquially known as Luis Tiant Sr., the younger Tiant was exiled from his home country in the wake of Cuban prime minister Fidel Castro’s travel restrictions, and separated from his family for 14 years. Against that backdrop of isolation, “El Tiante” went on to become the winningest Cuban-born pitcher in major league history, and to emerge as a larger-than-life character, so inseparable from his trademark cigars that he chomped them even in postgame showers. He spoke softly in a thick accent, but that didn’t prevent his wit and wisdom from getting across, particularly during the latter half of his career, after he emerged from a serious arm injury to become a top big-game pitcher. “In boots, black cap, foot-long cigar and nothing else, he’d hold court with half-hour monologues Richard Pryor would envy,” wrote Thomas Boswell in 1988.

Tiant’s ascendence to iconic status centered around his 1971–78 run with the Red Sox, reaching its pinnacle in their seven-game 1975 World Series defeat, during which he made three starts: a brilliant Game 1 shutout; a gritty Game 4 complete game during which he delivered “163 pitches in 100 ways,” to use the description of Sports Illustrated‘s Roy Blount Jr.; and a valiant, draining Game 6 effort where he faltered late but was saved by Carlton Fisk’s famous body-English home run around Fenway Park’s left field foul pole in the 12th inning. Read the rest of this entry »

Zyhir Hope is one of the youngest and least experienced players participating in the Arizona Fall League. Acquired by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the January deal that sent Michael Busch to the Chicago Cubs, the 19-year-old outfielder has just 315 professional plate appearances, in part because he missed three months this season with a shoulder injury. The raw tools are impressive. Since being selected in the 11th round of last year’s draft out of Stafford, Virginia’s Colonial Forge High School, Hope has slashed .289/.419/.492 with a dozen home runs and a 143 wRC+.

How he would define himself as a hitter is a question he wasn’t quite sure how to answer when I posed it to him on Wednesday.

“I try my best,” responded Hope, who is suiting up for the Glendale Desert Dogs. “I have amazing coaches and a lot of resources to kind of help me find myself, find my swing. I’m working every day, trying to stay consistent, trusting the process.”

Asked if his setup and swing are essentially the same as when he signed, he said that they are. As for how much he studies the intricacies of his craft, let’s just say that Hope is a believer — at least to this point of his young career — in keeping things as simple as possible.

“I don’t really think about that stuff, about mechanics,” explained Hope, who takes his cuts from the left side. “I just go out there and swing, to be honest. I love to just go out there and swing. It’s just feels, man. Just feels. I’ve been that way my whole life. See ball, hit ball.” Read the rest of this entry »

It’s likely not too many people have heard of or seen the movie Wolfs, even though it features Brad Pitt and George Clooney in a crowd-pleaser action movie, throwing witty banter at each other for two hours. However, the film dropped three weeks ago on Apple TV+. No wide release, little marketing power behind it, and available only on a streaming service that lags behind Netflix, Hulu, and other platforms. Likewise, the MLB playoff picture began to take shape around the same time, and casual fans of the sport probably hadn’t heard or seen much of the Detroit Tigers or the Cleveland Guardians, who play in the AL Central and don’t receive much national media attention.

Nevertheless, the two teams met in an ALDS that spanned the full five games. The Guardians outlasted the Tigers 7-3 in Game 5 on Saturday to earn a trip to the ALCS, where they’ll meet the New York Yankees in a best-of-seven series with a World Series berth on the line.

In Wolfs, Pitt and Clooney play fixers who are sent in to clean up messy situations created by people with enough money and power to avoid facing consequences for their actions. The two are assigned to the same job despite this being the type of work better suited to a lone wolf. The dual fixer scenario highlights how the two men who have never worked together still generally follow the same playbook. They ask the same questions, follow the same procedures, and tap into the same network of resources. Both fancy themselves not only the best at what they do, but Clooney declares, “No one can do what I do,” mere moments before another character proclaims, “No one can do what he does,” in reference to Pitt. Read the rest of this entry »

The postseason is at its most fun when both teams have something to prove. The ZiPS projections may have been bullish on the Cleveland Guardians coming into the season, but the computer was in the minority, with most observers thinking the Minnesota Twins were the clear favorites in the division. The Guardians are no longer the habitual losers they were from the 1960s-80s, but their last World Series championship was still in 1948. For their part, the Detroit Tigers dominated the AL Central 15 years ago, but lost both of their World Series, dropping eight of nine games. And Detroit wasn’t even supposed to be here; the team traded Jack Flaherty at the deadline and if someone had bowled them over with an offer, Tarik Skubal might be wearing a different uniform this month.

Game 4 was do or die for Cleveland, with the Tigers’ plan of “Tarik Skubal and then pitching chaos” winning two of the first three games. With a bullpen whose second-half performance led the American League with a 2.50 ERA and 3.0 WAR (the Tigers weren’t far behind with a 3.00 ERA and 2.8 WAR), the Guardians had high hopes that they’d be able to send the ALDS back to Cleveland for one winner-take-all showdown. And that’s precisely what they did, winning a closely fought game that was one of the most entertaining we’ve seen so far this October.

Cleveland struck first and in old-school fashion, with a single and a stolen base from Steven Kwan, and singles by Kyle Manzardo and Lane Thomas, the latter of which scored Kwan. But Will Brennan’s groundout on a low changeup allowed Detroit starter Reese Olson to escape the first having only surrendered one run. Read the rest of this entry »

If you’re into relief pitching and pinch-hitting, boy was Game 3 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers the game for you. On the surface, it was fairly straightforward, a low-scoring affair that featured good pitching and a couple of timely hits. But look beneath the surface and you’ll see that it was quite a quirky game, one that would be difficult to explain to casuals (not derogatory!). Why was a healthy hitter pulled before he got an at-bat? Why did one of the biggest offensive threats on the Tigers get pulled in the fifth inning? Truly, it was a dream game if you love talking about the intricacies of baseball with your friends. And lucky for me, you’re all my friends today.

Let’s establish a few of the details before we dive into some of the nerdier aspects of Wednesday’s game. The Tigers won 3-0 to take a 2-1 series lead against their division rivals. Just as he had the last few months, A.J. Hinch put his faith in his bullpen, a unit that posted a 3.00 ERA (fourth in the game) in the second half as the Tigers put together the best record in the American League over that stretch. They delievered another superlative performance, and now his team has a chance to close out a playoff series at home Thursday night. Imagine telling Tigers fans that was possible in July!

There are 26 players on each of these flawed but fun AL Central rosters. Realistically, four of those 52 players (the starting pitchers from Games 1 and 2) weren’t going to appear in Game 3 unless it went a gazillion innings, leaving 48 who might see action. The Tigers used six pitchers and the Guardians used seven. Both teams used three pinch-hitters, while the Guardians also called on Austin Hedges as a defensive replacement (he ended up getting an at-bat), making for seven total substitutions between the two teams. Add those hurlers and pinch-hitters to each team’s starting lineup, and you end up with a whopping 38 players used! Not quite every player, but for a nine-inning game, that’s a lot! And all that mixing and matching added a fascinating dimension to the chess game, especially the pinch-hitting. Read the rest of this entry »

Every pitcher starts an at-bat with a plan of some sort. Usually, they execute the plan. But sometimes the plan goes awry. And the plan definitely went awry when Emmanuel Clase faced Kerry Carpenter in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the Tigers-Guardians ALDS.

Oh, I leave quite an impression

423 feet to be exact! #ALDS pic.twitter.com/yq6k6Fvss1

— MLB (@MLB) October 7, 2024

On the sixth pitch of the plate appearance, Carpenter uncorked a massive blast off Clase to give the Tigers a late 3-0 lead. A half-inning later, and Detroit had the series tied up at one game apiece. It was the hardest hit ball that Clase had ever given up. It was the first home run this season he’d allowed to a lefty. He allowed five earned runs the entire regular season; on that chuck alone, he gave up three. Read the rest of this entry »