Late Friday night, the Mariners and the Reds consummated the first blockbuster trade of the deadline period, with changeup artist Luis Castillo on his way to the Pacific Northwest for a considerable haul of young players headlined by No. 11 overall prospect Noelvi Marte. In exchange for about a year and a half of Castillo, the Reds netted a combination of upside (Marte, 18-year-old Low-A shortstop Edwin Arroyo, and burgeoning reliever Andrew Moore) and stability (likely 2023 rotation contributor Levi Stoudt).

The 20-year-old Marte, a potential All-Star shortstop and a 60 FV prospect, is hitting .275/.363/.462 at High-A Everett and has actually performed better than that more recently, slashing .301/.379/.549 since the beginning of June; he hit 15 homers and 19 doubles in 85 games prior to the trade. Marte has his doubters, or at least people in the industry who would take the under on my personal evaluation of him. There are scouts and clubs who were discouraged by his early-season conditioning; others are skeptical of his hit tool. Most commonly, though, there are scouts who think he won’t stay at shortstop. This is in part due to the way his physique looked early this season (it wasn’t bad, but was close to maxed-out), and also because Marte has had issues with errors, mostly of the throwing variety; he has accumulated 24 total errors already in 2022. Read the rest of this entry »

After a small amuse-bouche in the form of an Andrew Benintendi trade to get our deadline appetites drooling in anticipation, the Mariners have served up a mighty entrée in the form of landing Luis Castillo, arguably the best pitcher plausibly available this week, in a late Saturday trade. Heading the quartet of players heading to Cincinnati is shortstop Noelvi Marte, the No. 11 prospect both on the midseason update on The Board and in my preseason ZiPS Top 100 Prospects. Joining Marte is shortstop Edwin Arroyo, starting pitcher Levi Stoudt, and reliever Andrew Moore.

Castillo’s season got off to a rocky start thanks to lingering issues with a sore shoulder. Those are always concerning, but he was able to debut in early May after a thankfully eventless rehab stint. After some spotty command in his first game back, he’s been absolutely solid, making his second All-Star team this year; in 14 starts for the Reds, he has struck out 90 batters against 28 walks, putting up an ERA of 2.86, a FIP of 3.20, and 2.1 WAR. That’s enough for 16th in the NL despite Castillo not debuting until Cincinnati’s 29th game. While it wouldn’t impress Old Hoss Radbourn or Amos Rusie, Castillo is a workhorse by 2022’s standards, finishing the fifth inning in every start since his first one and boasting a streak of four consecutive games of at least seven innings, with three of the four opponents (Braves, Rays, Yankees) being quite dangerous.

Naturally, landing Castillo makes Seattle’s rotation a considerably more dangerous unit. ZiPS gives it an even bigger boost than our depth charts do, bumping it from 18th in the league in projected rest-of-season WAR to 10th. Overall, ZiPS thought the Mariners were a .527 team going into the season, and now my projections see them as a .545 team with an 84% chance of making the playoffs, up from 76%. This move is more about making the team as dangerous in the playoffs as possible; the Mariners could add Juan Soto, too, and the math of an 11-game deficit would still make winning the AL West a tough road.

As exciting as it is to see the Mariners do whatever they can to push themselves over the top this season, this move may even be a bigger deal for the 2023 season. Pencil in $15 million for Castillo’s salary, and the M’s have a committed luxury tax number of just around $115 million, with only Adam Frazier and Mitch Haniger as significant free agents. Having a solid rotation already put together gives Seattle nearly unlimited options this winter.

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Earlier today, Jake Mailhot broke down how two unheralded members of the Mariners’ relief corps have contributed to the team’s recent surge. Indeed, a lot has gone right for Seattle, but one area that has not been talked about as often is the catcher situation. In our preseason positional power rankings, the team ranked 16th at the position — not bad, but not great, either. So far, in real life, the Mariners are 14th. That’s not much of a difference, so you’d be inclined to think things have gone according to plan.

What Mariners fans would tell you is that Tom Murphy has been hurt, and Luis Torrens has been hurt and ineffective. Enter Cal Raleigh, who’s taken up the catching mantle all by himself, hitting .211/.288/.474 en route to a 117 wRC+ as of this writing. But it’s not a breakout many anticipated, nor did it come easy. In his first taste of the show last season, Raleigh hit for a mere 47 wRC+ in 148 plate appearances, then struggled to begin this season, ultimately getting sent down to Triple-A to recuperate. After rejoining the big league squad on May 7, however, Raleigh hasn’t looked back, providing big knocks for an aspiring squad ever since.

How did Raleigh pull it off? Like so many others before him, he simply started hitting the ball harder — shocking, I know. He has always possessed an uppercut swing, but mediocre exit velocities in his debut year meant his fly balls turned into outs, not extra-base hits. Now, he is supplementing those high launch angles with power. If we look at Barrels per plate appearances, which accounts for the fact that a per-batted ball basis tends to gloss over strikeout issues, Raleigh is one of the league’s most improved hitters. He’s highlighted below in yellow:

Among the 319 hitters in this plot, Raleigh ranks second in barrel per plate appearance gain, behind only Aaron Judge and tied with Rob Refsnyder and Christian Walker, represented by the points snuggled up to his right. Because barrel rates are reliable pretty quickly and stay consistent year-to-year, we can trust that major rises (and falls) aren’t just flukes. And evidently, Raleigh has made a couple tangible adjustments. During his seven-game stint in Tacoma, teammate Mitch Haniger told the young catcher he should hunt for the fastball, as that was the pitch he could handle. Given that only the best of the best can handle several ranges of velocity and movement, it seems like solid advice; not everyone can be Freddie Freeman. Read the rest of this entry »

On June 20, the Mariners designated Sergio Romo for assignment. They had just finished an 11-game homestand where they had gone 2–9, and their record had dipped to a season-low 10 games under .500. The next day, Seattle beat Oakland, 8–2, and has gone 24–6 since then, pushing its way into the middle of the AL Wild Card race. Romo wasn’t the only (or main) reason why Seattle had struggled up to that point in the season, but his 8.16 ERA and -0.7 WAR certainly didn’t help either. He does provide a convenient inflection point, though, to talk about how critical the Mariners’ bullpen has been to their play over the past month.

Here’s a table showing how Seattle’s relief corps performance before and after Romo’s departure:

Earlier this season, Mariners relievers had trouble converting an excellent strikeout-to-walk ratio into consistent success. Romo was the worst offender, but Diego Castillo (5.25), Andrés Muñoz (4.50), Drew Steckenrider (5.65), Anthony Misiewicz (4.61), and Matthew Festa (4.35) all had ERAs over four through June 19. Their biggest problem as a group was an outsized home run rate that pushed their FIP up to 4.17 even though their xFIP sat at 3.83. Along with Romo, the Mariners also found ways to get Steckenrider and Misiewicz off their roster, replacing the latter with Ryan Borucki in a trade on June 4 and designating the former for assignment on June 11. All told, Seattle churned through 18 different relievers to start the season, three of whom are no longer with the organization and another seven who were shuttled back to the minors.

A couple of those relievers who struggled early on in the season have been key members of the Mariners’ turnaround. Muñoz went 17 straight appearances without allowing a run before giving up two in last night’s game against the Astros. Castillo and Festa have both been lights out, with ERAs of 1.42 and 1.13, respectively, since June 20. But the one constant has been Paul Sewald. An unknown reliever prior to last year, he improved the shape of both his fastball and slider last year to become one of Seattle’s most valuable relievers. He hasn’t been quite as good this year; after approaching a strikeout rate of 40% last year, that’s fallen to just above 30% this year — still elite but not as dominant. Thankfully, he has a whole corps of relievers behind him who are now putting together fantastic seasons, with a few of them boasting repertoires that curiously look similar to Sewald’s. Read the rest of this entry »

The trade deadline is nearly here and once again, team behavior will be affected by 40-man roster dynamics. Teams with an especially high number of currently-rostered players under contract for 2023 and prospects who need to be added to the 40-man in the offseason have what is often called a 40-man “crunch,” “overage,” or need to “churn.” This means the team has incentive to clear its overflow of players by either packaging several to acquire just one in return, or by trading for something the club can keep — international pool space, comp picks, or, more typically, younger players whose 40-man clocks are further from midnight — rather than do nothing and later lose some of those players to waivers or in the Rule 5 Draft. Teams can take care of this issue with transactions between the end of the season and the 40-man roster deadline in November, but a contending team with a crunch has more incentive to do something before the trade deadline so the results of those deals can bolster the club’s ability to reach the postseason.

In an effort to see whose depth might influence trade behavior, I assess teams’ 40-man futures every year. This exercise is done by using the RosterResource Depth Chart pages to examine current 40-man situations, subtracting pending free agents using the Team Payroll tab, and then weighing the December 2022 Rule 5 eligible prospects (or players who became eligible in past seasons and are having a strong year) to see which clubs have the biggest crunch coming. I then make an educated guess about which of those orgs might behave differently in the trade market as a result.

Some quick rules about 40-man rosters. Almost none of them contain exactly 40 players in-season because teams can add a player to the 40 to replace one who is on the 60-day injured list. In the offseason, teams don’t get extra spots for injured players and have to get down to 40 precisely, so if they want to keep some of their injury fill-ins, they have to cut someone else from the 40-man to make room. Read the rest of this entry »

After taking their quest to end their 20-year playoff drought down to the final day of the 2021 season, the Mariners had high hopes for this year, but they mostly sputtered during the first two and a half months of the season, squandering an 11-6 start with separate 1-10 and 2-8 skids. Since June 19, when they were 10 games under .500, they’ve caught fire, winning 22 out of 25 games and entering the All-Star break riding a 14-game winning streak, one that has pushed them into the second American League Wild Card slot with a 51-42 record.

The Mariners aren’t the only AL team that will start the second half with renewed optimism. The Orioles, who have lost at least 108 games in a season three times since 2016, their last season above .500, and appeared headed for another triple-digit loss total through the first quarter of the season, went on a 10-game winning streak starting on July 3, briefly nosing them above .500 for the first time this year. They entered the break 46-46, tied with the White Sox at 3.5 games out of the third Wild Card spot.

The two teams have surged while the Blue Jays and Red Sox have stumbled. While Toronto is still clinging to that last Wild Card spot, at the very least the race has become a four-team fight instead of simply a three-team one, with the AL Central’s second- and third-place teams (the Guardians are only two games behind the Twins, the White Sox three) lurking in the weeds as well, and the Orioles at least showing a pulse. A picture is worth a thousand words:

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Ty France was named to the American League All-Star team this past Sunday. Added when Mike Trout bowed out due to injury, the Seattle Mariners first baseman didn’t simply merit the honor, his addition was overdue. Statistically the best hitter on baseball’s hottest team — 14 straight wins heading into the break! — France is slashing .308/.376/.470, with club-bests in both wOBA (.369) and wRC+ (148).

He’s not a flash in the pan. A 34th-round pick by the San Diego Padres in 2015 out of San Diego State University, France has long shown an ability to square up baseballs. A .300/.388/.463 hitter over all professional levels, all he’s really needed was the opportunity.

“That’s really all it is,” France said prior to a game at Fenway Park in late May. “Honestly, it’s being able to play every day — being in the lineup and getting those consistent reps — more than anything else. This game is a lot of ups and downs, and the more comfortable you can be, the more you’re going to find yourself in a good spot.” Read the rest of this entry »

On June 19, the Mariners lost 4–0 to the Angels. It was their second straight shutout loss, ending an 11-game homestand where they went 2–9, dropping them to a season-low 10 games under .500, and leaving their postseason odds at a minuscule 5.3%. Since then, they’ve gone 16–3 and tied the Blue Jays for the final American League Wild Card spot after sweeping them in four games last weekend, passing five teams in the standings during this hot streak and digging themselves out of a pretty deep hole.

As you’d expect for a team playing so well, Seattle has seen contributions from all across the roster. But the pitching staff has been particularly strong, leading the majors in ERA at 2.99 since the beginning of June — a period that includes that aforementioned horrible homestand. In that same span, the starting rotation has posted a 3.06 ERA, and from June 2 to 26, it put together a 24-game streak of allowing three or fewer earned runs. The group’s collective FIP and xFIP during this period are both more than a full run above their ERA, likely indicating some amount of good fortune, but any team that rattles off 16 wins in a 19-game stretch is bound to benefit from some luck. Still, despite the gap between their results and their peripherals, many of Seattle’s starters have made beneficial adjustments to their arsenals that have fueled a lot of their recent success.

It all starts with the reigning AL Cy Young award winner, Robbie Ray. Diminished velocity led to a rough first couple of months; through his first 11 starts of the season, his ERA was sitting just under five, though his FIP and xFIP both painted a more optimistic picture. Some of that likely had to do with his propensity to allow a bunch of runs in a single bad inning in nearly all of his starts. But in his start against the Astros on June 6, he made a change to his pitch repertoire, adding a sinker — a pitch that’s now become an integral part of his arsenal:

Last year in Toronto, Ray leaned into his four-seam fastball and slider as his two primary pitches. He continued that trend in Seattle to the point where he was essentially a two-pitch pitcher during the first two months of the season. Whether it was the diminished velocity or batters simply figuring out his approach, he wasn’t nearly as effective. By introducing a sinker into his mix (and throwing his curveball a little bit more, too), he’s given opposing batters a new wrinkle to figure out. Read the rest of this entry »

John Schreiber has been a find for the Red Sox. Claimed off waivers by Boston from the Detroit Tigers prior to last season, the 28-year-old sidewinder has come out of the bullpen 30 times this year and allowed just 12 hits and two earned runs over 29 innings. Schreiber has 35 strikeouts to go with three saves and a pair of wins in as many decisions.

He’s not the same pitcher who failed to distinguish himself in Detroit.

“I’d mainly been a four-seam/slider guy,” explained Schreiber, who logged a 6.28 ERA over parts of two seasons with the Tigers. “In college and for most of my pro-ball career, that’s all I threw. Two years ago I started working on a better changeup, and last year I started throwing my sinker. Paul Abbott is our Triple-A pitching coach, and he helped me work on a two-seam sinker. I’ve gotten really comfortable throwing that.”

Schreiber still features his old mix prominently — this year he’s thrown 35.3% four-seamers and 35.8% sliders — but his 22.5% sinker usage has added a whole new twist. The 2016, 15th-round draft pick out of the University of Northwestern Ohio is now far less predictable, and just as importantly, he’s better able to match up with hitters who do damage on high heaters. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been an eventful couple of weeks for Jesse Winker. On the heels of an exceptional but injury-shortened campaign with the Reds and then a mid-March trade to the Mariners, he hasn’t exactly lived up to expectations, yet earlier this month, the team signed him to an extension that will carry him to free agency. On Sunday, Winker found himself at the center of the season’s biggest brawl, a spectacle that produced some unexpected payoffs as well as a boatload of suspensions, including a seven-gamer for the 29-year-old left fielder.

The atmosphere on Sunday in Anaheim was already tense in the wake of Mariners reliever Erik Swanson sailing a 95-mph fastball too close to the head of Mike Trout — who last week in Seattle homered five times in a five-game series, with four of the homers decisive — in the ninth inning of Saturday night’s game. Trout was understandably upset, though Swanson claimed he was merely trying to work up and in to a weak spot in the three-time MVP’s strike zone. The Angels, who lost after Trout was subsequently intentionally walked and then Shohei Ohtani retired, weren’t amused; as the epic breakdown from Jomboy Media showed, they spent a lot of time glaring and squawking as the Mariners celebrated their victory.

On Sunday, things escalated quickly. Angels starter Andrew Wantz’s fifth pitch of the day, a 93-mph fastball, whizzed behind the head of Mariners rookie Julio Rodríguez, prompting a warning from home plate umpire John Bacon. Winker came to the plate to lead off the second inning and was hit in his right hip by a 91-mph fastball. After jawing with catcher Max Stassi, gesturing toward Wantz and stepping out in front of home plate, he headed toward the Angels’ dugout, where he was met by a rather large contingent. His teammates quickly joined him, and a full-on scrum ensued, with Winker and teammate J.P. Crawford among those throwing punches.

Wantz, incidentally, was a last-minute replacement for scheduled starter Jose Suarez and was making his first major league start after 32 relief appearances dating back to last year. The Mariners later said that they believed the switch was made with the intention of Wantz acting as an enforcer, and that the 26-year-old righty should have been ejected after nearly hitting Rodríguez, but in his postgame comments, Wantz denied any intent with regards either to that pitch or the one that hit Winker. Winker, for his part, felt that if Wantz had been ejected for hitting him, none of the fighting would have occurred, and that Angels manager Phil Nevin and the injured Anthony Rendon (seen hitting Winker in the face with his left — non-injured — hand) instigated the brawl from the dugout. Read the rest of this entry »