Archive for Nationals

General Managers’ View: Who Flies Below the Radar?

Every Major League Baseball organization has players who fly below the radar. They add value — or are projected to do so in the future — yet are underappreciated, if not unnoticed, by the vast majority of fans. The same is true for coaches, and even some managers, particularly at the minor-league level. Other behind-the-scenes personnel, such as scouts, are largely invisible. Given their contributions, many of these people deserve more accolades than they get.

With that in mind, I asked a cross section of general managers and presidents of baseball operations if they could point to a person in their organization who stands out as being under the radar. With a nearly across-the-board caveat that it’s hard to name just one, all gave interesting answers.

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Chaim Bloom, Tampa Bay Rays: “I’ll go with two guys who we feel strongly about that are actually no longer on the radar, because we just put them on our big-league staff. That would be Kyle Snyder and Ozzie Timmons. They were with us in Durham for a while and have played a huge role in the development of a lot of our young players. One of the reasons we’re excited about what’s coming was on display with that club. They won a Triple-A championship with a very young team.

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Ten Players I’m Excited to Watch in 2018

We’re currently in the midst of a lull in the baseball calendar. The offseason has officially arrived and yet the Hot Stove hasn’t really been lit yet. I suppose I could get excited for Awards season, but the painfully slow roll out and the heated arguments wear me down fairly quickly.

So, instead, I try to make my own baseball entertainment. For me, one exercise is simply to look over the league and attempt to identify the players about whom I’m most excited for next season. Not superstars, necessarily: everyone is always excited to watch the game’s brightest lights. And not prospects who haven’t yet reached the Show, either. I’m not really qualified to talk about those players in a meaningful way, so I’ll leave those players to Eric (and Chris) and all the scouts out there.

Outside of those groups, though, there are still hundreds of players from which to choose. I’ll be excited to watch more than these 10, of course, but in surveying the league, these are ones who caught my eye. Note that this isn’t in any particular order. I’m equally excited about all 10. Perhaps you’ll agree with me, perhaps not. Feel free to conduct your own exercise and let me know who your 10 players are in the comments.

Rafael Devers

The new Red Sox third baseman enjoyed a meteoric debut month, swatting his way to a 224 wRC+ in his July call-up. That covered just 27 plate appearances, though, and as we moved into August and September, he cooled off significantly. He hit safely from his second game (July 26) through his eighth game (August 4). At that point, he was hitting .389/.463/.694, for a 205 wRC+. From August 5 through the end of the regular season, though, he hit .263/.312/.441, for a 92 wRC+. Doom and gloom, right? Not entirely, no, because in Boston’s abbreviated playoff run, he was one of the few bright spots, slashing .364/.429/.909. He slugged two homers — one off of Francisco Liriano and one off of Ken Giles. The latter was of the inside-the-park variety, but it was impressive nonetheless:

So, it’s hard to know what to expect from young Devers. Andrew Benintendi was similarly hyped coming into last campaign and was decidedly mediocre for large swaths of the season. Will that be Devers’ fate too? And what of his fielding? He made seven throwing errors and seven fielding errors in his short time in Boston. If the Red Sox acquire a legit first baseman this winter (or a legit DH and move Hanley Ramirez to first) and it turns out that Devers can’t hack at it at third, the Red Sox will have a conundrum to solve.

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Are We Watching Pitchers Hurt Themselves in the Playoffs?

The postseason game is changing around us. Starting pitchers are being asked to go harder for shorter periods of time, allowing teams to begin playing matchups with the bullpen as early as the third inning. And while strategically sound in most cases, this trend has emerged without a major change in how we think about rest and schedules in the postseason. As much as we might love the high-intensity matchups that “bullpenning” provides, is it possible that pitchers are having to endure greater stress than in the past?

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Matt Wieters Continues to Be Cursed

Baseball can be really weird, but the game has rarely facilitated action more unusual than the sort that occurred in the fifth inning of Game 5 on Thursday night between the Nationals and Cubs.

The inning in question produced a series of four events that had never happened consecutively in the game’s recorded history, covering some 2.3 million half-innings.

Craig Edwards dove into a potentially overlooked batter-interference call that would have stopped the Nationals’ hemorrhaging in the inning, held the deficit at one, and perhaps have allowed the team to keep playing this October.

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The Nationals’ Protest Case

In a win-or-go-home game that finishes 9-8, there are going to be a lot of important moments. Big plays made or not made by players. Important decisions made or not made by managers. Huge calls made or not made by umpires. We never want to focus on the umpires if at all possible because it takes away from the more important and more entertaining aspects of the game. At some point, however, it’s impossible to omit them from the conversation.

In the top of the fifth inning of last night’s deciding Division Series game between the Cubs and Nationals, the visiting team had runners on first and second base. With two outs and an 0-2 count, Max Scherzer threw Javy Baez a pitch in the dirt. Baez swung and missed for strike three, but the ball got past Matt Wieters, allowing Baez to run to first base. During Baez’s backswing, his bat made contact with Wieters’ helmet.

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Tanner Roark Is Mixing It Up

When I talked to Tanner Roark back in 2014, he was in the middle of his breakout season and made sure to explain all the adjustments that led to that excellent year. But, even then, he gave us clues about his second act and what he might do in the future. And though the overall results have been uneven at times, it’s that kind of forward-thinking that has kept him productive. If he stays on the mound long enough in tonight’s Game 5, we’ll see some of those secondary adjustments in action.

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Stephen Strasburg’s Magnificent and Surprising Wednesday

Maybe it was the antibiotics, maybe it was the shame. Whatever the reason, Stephen Strasburg pitched Wednesday and offered an extraordinary performance, particularly given the context.

Strasburg gave us his Jordan-with-the flu, Reed-coming-out-of-tunnel, Gibson-homering-on-zero-healthy-legs, Schilling’s-bloody-sock moment on a dreary, blustery afternoon at Wrigley Field.

Largely because of Strasburg, there will be a Game 5 in this series. Against the Cubs last night, Strasburg surrendered just three hits over seven shutout innings, striking out 12 while conceding just two walks. Over two starts and 14 innings in the NLDS, Strasburg did not allow an earned run, striking out 22 and walking just three. He’s pitching as well anyone on the planet.

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The Nationals Might’ve Made Their Situation Worse

I’m not going to defend the Nationals for their miscommunication. Stephen Strasburg wasn’t going to start Game 4 against the Cubs, because he wasn’t available, and it was silly that he wasn’t available, and no one was really quite clear on why he wasn’t available, and now he is available, and he is starting Game 4 against the Cubs, and the game’ll start pretty soon. All’s well that ends well, right? The Nationals mistakenly created their own off-day drama. It’ll all be forgotten provided they play a good ballgame. We just needed something to carry us through the night.

It’s just — okay, Strasburg is going to start Game 4, now. He’s sucking it up, and he’s going to take the mound with the Nationals’ collective back against the wall. There are few pitchers to whom you’d rather hand the ball for a game with such high stakes. But even if the Nationals win Game 4, tomorrow they’ll have to play a Game 5. Strasburg won’t pitch. Max Scherzer would be available only out of the bullpen. The Nationals need to win two games, not one, and Strasburg was already going to get one of the starts. In part, maybe this is about Gio Gonzalez vs. Tanner Roark. Yet I still can’t shake the feeling like the Nationals might’ve just made things a little worse for themselves.

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If He’s “Under the Weather,” Stephen Strasburg Shouldn’t Pitch

Pitchers have typically produced poor numbers when ill. (Photo: Lorie Shaull)

The Nationals have created quite a mess — or, at the very least, exhibited a failure to communicate.

As you’re probably aware, Stephen Strasburg was originally not scheduled to pitch Game 4 of the NLDS. Following the postponement of Tuesday’s game to Wednesday, however, circumstances appeared to change for the Nationals. Facing elimination, they could throw Strasburg — who’s been pitching as well as anyone on the planet — on his normal rest.

Strasburg appeared at the ballpark and played catch on Tuesday. He wasn’t 100%, though. He was feeling “under the weather,” according to manager Dusty Baker. Washington Post columnist Thomas Boswell reported on the situation:

The Nats, knowing that Game 4 might be rained out, asked Strasburg whether he could pitch Wednesday.

“I’ll give you what I’ve got,” Strasburg said, according to General Manager Mike Rizzo, who was in the meeting.

Those are the words you want to hear, in one sense, because it means your $175 million star will suck it up and perform. On the other hand, they’re exactly the words you don’t want to hear because Strasburg has, in recent years, shown such a high tolerance for pain that he has touched [sic] it out until he ended up on the disabled list. So, “I’ll give you what I’ve got” means the guy is sick as a dog.

Perhaps unconvinced that they’d get the best version of Strasburg on Wednesday, the Nationals’ decided to save him for a potential Game 5 on Thursday and let Tanner Roark take Game 4.

Still, other Washington Post columnist Barry Svrluga articulated thoughts that many seemed to share inside and outside the Beltway on Wednesday morning.

If Strasburg is truly sick and if he actually wanted to pitch, let’s make sure the public gets some details about this illness. What was his temperature? What are his symptoms? How are the Nationals treating him? He threw a bullpen session Monday, was in the dugout for Game 3 that night, returned to the ballpark Tuesday. It’s nothing for a pitcher — never mind a pitcher who wouldn’t pitch Monday or Tuesday — to remain back at the hotel to recuperate. Why wasn’t Strasburg, so ill he can’t pitch, recuperating?

That leads to another possibility: Strasburg had been preparing all along to take the ball in a Game 5 on Thursday. When the weather altered the schedule for all of baseball, Strasburg declined to alter his own schedule. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported that Strasburg refused to pitch Wednesday. The Nationals deny that report.

Baker even mentioned something about mold affecting players in Chicago:

And then this breaking news from Jon Morosi appeared late Wednesday morning:

Quite a turn of events! This author even had to re-write the current post.

And a number of questions remain unanswered. Like, is Strasburg feeling better? And: are the Nationals and Strasburg wilting before public opinion?

Whatever’s going on, the Nationals could have communicated this much more clearly and offered much more transparency — unless, in fact, there’s actually something to hide. Baker couldn’t even get the day right when Strasburg threw his bullpen, which was cut short. (It was Monday, not Tuesday.)

Svrluga shared some insights offered by two former major-league players on Tuesday evening. Said Mark Teixeira via ESPN: “Unless this guy is in the hospital and getting fluids and can’t even go to the ballpark, he’s gotta be on the mound.” Said David Ross during the ESPN tonight telecast: “If I’m his teammate… I can’t look him in the eye.”

Strasburg has developed a reputation, fairly or unfairly, as something like a high-maintenance, high-performance automobile.

There was, of course, the infamous innings limit of 2012, when the Nationals publicly revealed they had set a hard cap on Strasburg’s playing time for the season following Tommy John surgery late in 2010. They didn’t permit him to pitch in the postseason. While the intent was to protect Strasburg, we really have no idea if pitch and innings limits are doing much good with regard to injury prevention. Moreover, by refusing to play Strasburg, the Nationals failed to give themselves their best chance of succeeding in the playoffs. (And perhaps there was a way not to cross that innings mark and have Strasburg available later in the season.)

Strasburg has made a number of trips to the disabled list. His competitive zeal has been questioned. He’s also perhaps misunderstood as one of the game’s less outspoken of players.

Wrote Svrluga on Wednesday morning:

“So whatever Strasburg says now, his rep is in flames… Mike Rizzo, the Nationals’ general manager, has said out loud that it’s the time of year for heroes.

‘Be John Wayne,’ Rizzo said Sunday at Wrigley, in between Games 2 and 3.”

The American public likes to see their stars perform even if ill, and perform well even if dealing with illness. It can lend a legendary quality to already talented performers. Michael Jordan’s excellence in the NBA Finals with the flu, Willis Reed’s dramatic return to the court after suffering a torn muscle, Kirk Gibson’s walk-off home run with zero healthy legs: these are career-defining moments.

If he’s healthy, if Strasburg is feeling much better, that’s one thing. But if he’s not, if he’s ill, if this is about trying to prove bravery and and play hero ball… is that a good idea?

Should the Nats really want him pitching Wednesday afternoon? (And if Strasburg isn’t sick — why would he have wanted to take a PR hit like this?)

Because this piece has required a quick turnaround, I haven’t had time to perform an exhaustive study of pitchers working through illness in 2017.

Thankfully, Ben Lindbergh did such a study back in 2012 for Baseball Prospectus. Lindbergh found 10 starts made by nine pitchers — Matt Harrison, Vance Worley, Chris Tillman, Jeremy Hellickson, Derek Holland, (twice and left to toil for 14.1 innings), Josh Beckett, Anthony Swarzak, Jon Niese and Clayton Kershaw — who were known, publicly, to have performed despite illness.

Of those 10 starts, seven produced box-score lines worse than their individual seasonal performance — and only two met the criteria for a “quality start”

They combined for a 5.84 ERA over 42.1 innings, allowing 68 hits and 18 walks against 50 strikeouts. While we should perhaps revisit this with a more exhaustive study, it would make sense that pitchers don’t perform as well when feeling sick (or on short rest). Think about trying to complete a work day, or to parent effectively, or just get up to go the refrigerator when feeling ill.

Assuming Strasburg really is sick — and is ill in such a way that it impacts his ability to perform — he should be saved for Game 5. It’s a smart, tactical retreat. After all, the Nationals still have to win two consecutive games. Their best bet to win one of those two is to have an ace-level pitcher at, or nearer to, 100%.

If he’s feeling better, if he’s prepared, he ought to pitch. He should be adaptable enough to change routines if relatively healthy to help a team facing elimination. But if he’s sick? The precedent isn’t great.

Consider the start by Matt Harrison (flu-like symptoms) included in Lindbergh’s research. He allowed five runs, four earned in 4.2 innings. Said then-Rangers manager Ron Washington:

“He’s under the weather a little bit, but he still went out there and left it all on the mound. He gave us everything he had. He took the ball and battled.”

Said Worley (four runs, 3.2 innings) of the appearance he made while dealing with a stomach ailment:

“I felt like I was going to see Earl* a few times today. You know, I just couldn’t get it out. And then I went out there, and it seemed like every time I tried to let loose today, it didn’t go where I wanted. And neither did my stomach. Everything arm-wise felt fine. I came out with good action. It just wasn’t going where I wanted because I couldn’t control my stomach.”

Said Tillman (five runs allowed in five innings):

“I was kind of out there fighting stuff on the mound, just trying to get through.”

Strasburg is a more talented pitcher than those cited above, but Kershaw couldn’t get through the fourth inning on April 5, 2012, and his fastball velocity sat at 89.3 mph, well below his seasonal average. On Wednesday evening, is Strasburg going to talk to reporters about hoping to have performed better but not having been at 100%?

Discretion is the better part of valor. Bravery can be misguided.


Try to Tell the Difference Between Jake Arrieta and Tanner Roark

I have to admit to a bias. I’ve been aware of Tanner Roark since he entered the major leagues a few years ago, but my evaluation failed to evolve. In my head, Roark was still the guy he was when he made his first impression, as a strike-throwing and hittable sort who seemed to pitch with the intent of beating his peripherals. It is my job to try to know as much as I can, and I concede that this is my own failing, but in my partial defense, Roark hasn’t been close to the most interesting member of the Nationals’ pitching staff. Why would I choose to concentrate on Roark, when I could focus instead on Max Scherzer or Stephen Strasburg?

I have to admit to another bias. I find it tempting to believe that the larger population perceives things in the same way that I do. I haven’t kept up with Roark; therefore, I bet no one has kept up with Roark. Sometimes this gut feeling is correct. Sometimes, I’m just out of the loop. In any case, I’m about to put you all to the test. This isn’t going to be about me anymore.

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