The Cubs made it clear that they’re buyers on Monday afternoon, acquiring third baseman Jeimer Candelario from the Nationals for shortstop Kevin Made and pitcher DJ Herz.

What a difference a week makes! After losing the opener of a four-game series to the Cardinals just over a week ago, the Cubs stood at 45–51, and it seemed more likely that they would be sellers than buyers come deadline time. An eight-game winning streak later, off the backs of the hated Cardinals and the moribund White Sox, changed that calculus; even a Sunday loss to break the streak wasn’t enough to banish the idea that the NL Central was there for the taking. After all, four games in the standings isn’t that wide a chasm, and with the fourth-best run differential in the National League, there’s at least one legitimate reason to think the Cubs have deserved better than their .500 record this year. The Pirates have faded, the Cardinals wouldn’t be trading off talent if even they thought they had a miracle in them, and neither of the Reds or Brewers are likely to take big steps forward. Read the rest of this entry »

Every year, the Rays and Guardians pull off a neat magic trick. They piece together an impressive starting rotation by using a few awesome pitchers they’ve developed, some mid-level guys who pitch way above their pedigree, and a few slots of the rotation that mostly look like scrubs but churn out solid value anyway. The Rays like to sprinkle in some cheap veteran acquisitions that turn out to be better than we all thought, too. When the inevitable heat death of the universe occurs, I half expect Cleveland and Tampa Bay to be locked in the 12th inning of a 2–2 game, so consistent are their developmental pipelines.

The 2023 season has put some stress on the Rays’ side of that equation, though. Their top-end starters have been excellent. Shane McClanahan and Zach Eflin have both provided great bulk, Tyler Glasnow has been fantastic since returning from injury, and Taj Bradley is promising despite a rough start to the season (but is headed to Triple-A to make room for Civale). But injuries have wreaked havoc on their depth this year: Jeffrey Springs, Drew Rasmussen, and Josh Fleming have all hit the 60-day IL, with only Fleming likely to return this year.

Something else strange is going on down on the Gulf Coast, too: the Rays’ bullpen has been atrocious. I half expected Google Docs to underline that sentence as incorrect, because this is part of the Tampa Bay mythos: pick some random relievers, sprinkle in some crazy arm angles, and bam: top-five bullpen. But instead it’s been a bottom-five bullpen, and that makes the starters’ jobs much harder. The Rays have fallen out of first place in the AL East, the Blue Jays are lurking not far behind; something had to change. Read the rest of this entry »

With the trade deadline just a day away, at last we reach the end of my annual series spotlighting the weakest positions on contenders. While still focusing upon teams that meet that loose definition (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 10%), this year I have incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. Sometimes that may suggest that the team will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because the team’s performance at that spot is worth a look.

At the other positions in this series, I have used about 0.6 WAR or less thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — as my cutoff, making exceptions here and there, but for the designated hitters, I’ve lowered that to zero, both to keep the list length manageable and to account for the general spread of value. In the second full season of the universal DH, exactly half the teams in the majors have actually gotten 0.0 WAR or less from their DHs thus far, five are in the middle ground between 0.0 and 1.0, and 10 are at 1.0 or above. DHs as a group have hit .242/.321/.419 for a 102 wRC+; that last figure is up one point from last year. This year, we’re seeing a greater number teams invest more playing time in a single DH; where last year there were three players who reached the 500 plate appearance threshold as DHs, this year we’re on pace for five, and the same is true at the 400-PA threshold (on pace for nine this year, compared to seven last year) and 300-PA threshold (on pace for 15, compared to 12 last year). That said, many of the teams on this list are the ones that haven’t found that special someone to take the lion’s share of the plate appearances. Read the rest of this entry »

We all knew the Angels were desperate to add at the deadline. How desperate? Well, how desperate would you have to be to call your ex — two of your exes, actually — on a Sunday night?

The Halos continued their deadline restocking process by reacquiring a pair of their former first-round picks, Randal Grichuk and C.J. Cron, from Colorado in exchange for minor league pitchers Jake Madden and Mason Albright. (No, not the former secretary of state, but I’m gonna keep doing a double-take every time I see Albright’s name until well into his big league career.)

Every big league organization has its own special circumstances and cultural idiosyncrasies, but this trade brings together the two teams that have the best claim to being in unique situations. With Shohei Ohtani three months from free agency, the Angels sit four games out of a Wild Card spot with two teams to climb over. They face time pressure unlike anything most franchises have ever experienced. And the Rockies, well, are the Rockies. Read the rest of this entry »

The Cardinals are officially engaging in a moderate short-term rebuild, trading Jordan Hicks to Toronto for pitching prospects Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein, and Jordan Montgomery to Texas for righty Tekoah Roby, infielder Thomas Saggese, and reliever John King. Each of these players could suit up for the Cardinals in the big leagues within the next 12 months, especially King (already a big leaguer) and the two pitchers coming back from Toronto, who will likely be added to the 40-man roster after the season. Roby and Saggese have spent their 2023 seasons at Double-A Frisco and are within range of the majors even though they don’t have to be put on the 40-man until after the 2024 slate. You can see where each of the newly-acquired prospects falls on the Cardinals list over on The Board.

Let’s start by going over the Montgomery return, since the most significant prospect acquired by the Cardinals comes over in that deal. Roby, 21, moved onto the Top 100 prospects list when I updated the Rangers system a couple of weeks ago, and he would have been even higher if not for his current shoulder injury, which shelved him in early June. Before he was shut down, Roby was consistently working with four plus pitches. He was sitting 94–95 mph with riding life, bending in one of the nastier curveballs in the minors, tilting in a similarly shaped slider in the mid-80s, and turning over a tailing low-80s changeup, all of which were capable of missing bats. He looked like a contender’s four-pitch, mid-rotation starter, like a less physical Hunter Brown.

Roby’s delivery does have some violence, but he’s always thrown strikes in spite of this. He is slightly undersized (but well-built) at 6-foot-1 and has now had arm injuries in two of his three pro seasons, so there’s definitely relief risk here despite his strike-throwing track record. From a stuff and pitch execution standpoint, he is where Jack Leiter was expected to be when he was drafted. On upside, Roby is a huge get for the Cardinals and could be the big league club’s best starting pitcher within a year or two. Once healthy, he has a chance to kick down the door, though shoulder issues can be particularly scary and destabilizing to a young pitcher’s career. Read the rest of this entry »

2023 has been a rough year for the St. Louis Cardinals. They’re used to living in the NL Central penthouse, looking askance at whatever team happens to battle them for supremacy in a given season. Sometimes they lose those battles – the Cubs put together a nice run in the mid-2010s, the Reds had their time in the sun before that, and the Brewers have been a thorn in St. Louis’ side in recent years. But this kind of collapse – 47-60 and last place in the division – is unheard of.

The silver lining? The Cardinals had a ton of expiring contracts coming into the season, which means they have a ton of players to trade. With the deadline quickly approaching, they’re starting to turn those players into prospects. In two deals on Sunday, the Cardinals sent out Jordan Montgomery, Jordan Hicks, and Chris Stratton. Montgomery and Stratton are headed to the Rangers; meanwhile, better hope Hicks has a passport, because he’s now a Blue Jay. Eric Longenhagen is covering the prospects who are coming back to the Gateway City in a separate piece. Here, I’m just going to focus on how these three fit with their new teams, and the Cardinals’ general strategy from here on out.

Let’s start with the Rangers. This one is pretty straightforward: Montgomery slots into a hilariously deep Texas rotation. After acquiring Max Scherzer on Saturday, their playoff rotation looked solid. Now it looks even better. Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi (health permitting) are an above-average top duo, Montgomery is overqualified as a third starter, and after him there’s a whole grab bag of guys I wouldn’t feel either great or terrible about as my last playoff starter. Dane Dunning, Jon Gray, Andrew Heaney, and Martín Pérez are all cromulent options, and the three who don’t draw a rotation assignment might play up out of the bullpen. Read the rest of this entry »

Figuratively speaking, Bryce Elder is pitching well under par. In 21 starts for the Atlanta Braves, the 24-year-old right-hander is 8-2 with a 3.18 ERA. Killing worms is his M.O. Relying heavily on a modified two-seamer, Elder has a 53.6% ground-ball rate that ranks fifth-best among qualified hurlers. Earlier this month, he was named an N.L. All-Star in his first full big-league season.

When he’s not sinking fastballs, he’s sinking putts. Atlanta’s fifth-round pick in the 2020 draft, the University of Texas product is an accomplished golfer who shoots in the mid-to-low 70s. More on that in a moment.

Elder learned his sinker late in his freshman year of college. He’d thrown a four-seamer in high school, but lacking plus velocity — his heater was, and remains, in the 90-mph range — an adjustment was in order. His pitching coach showed him a one-seam grip, he threw a few off the mound, and the dividends soon became apparent.

The improvement was evident in the numbers. The Decatur, Texas native had a 5.55 ERA as a four-seam freshman. As a one-seam sophomore, he had a 2.93 ERA. As a junior — this in the truncated COVID season — that number was 2.08. Success in pro ball followed, but stagnation was never part of the plan. In a continued effort to get better, the righty subsequently tweaked his sinker grip. Read the rest of this entry »

Friday night, a frustrated Max Scherzer surveyed his surroundings — a Mets team in fourth place, 17 games behind the Braves, with just a 16.3% chance of making the playoffs — and did not like what he saw. Scherzer told reporters that he was “disappointed” in his team’s fortunes, while acknowledging his own role in how the season has gone. The decision to trade closer David Robertson signaled a shift to sell mode, and indicated to Scherzer that he was due a chat with his bosses.

The fruits of that conversation ripened less than 24 hours later, and the three-time Cy Young winter is now bound for Texas, with prospect Luisangel Acuña headed in the other direction. The Mets are also sending roughly $35.7 million along to offset the considerable remaining salary due Scherzer this season and next.

It’s not an Ohtani trade, but this is about as big a name as you’ll see move at the deadline otherwise. Read the rest of this entry »

One of the biggest names on the trade market found a new home on Saturday evening as the Texas Rangers picked up pitcher Max Scherzer from the New York Mets in return for shortstop prospect Luisangel Acuña, per Andy Martino. Scherzer’s contract runs through 2024 at a hefty $43.33 million per season, with the Mets covering a little more than $35 million of his remaining deal. Per Jeff Passan, Scherzer won’t exercise his player opt-out and will remain with the Rangers through the end of his contract. Read the rest of this entry »

The White Sox sent closer Kendall Graveman to the Astros for catching prospect Korey Lee on Friday afternoon. Graveman, signed by the White Sox to a three-year contract days before the 2021–22 lockout started, put up a 3.30 ERA and a 4.00 FIP in 110 appearances with Chicago. This caps off a busy end-of-week flurry for the Sox: Graveman is now the fifth pitcher they’ve traded in 24 hours, after Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo López, Lance Lynn, and Joe Kelly.

Graveman’s peripheral numbers have slid this season as his strikeout and walk rates have continued to deteriorate, and the six homers he’s allowed this season almost match the eight he surrendered in 2021 and ’22 combined, but I’m slightly less concerned about this than I would be in many similar situations. For one, his plate discipline-against numbers don’t support his problems in these departments. Batters are making contact against Graveman less often than any time in his career (ignoring his five-appearance debut season), and his first-strike percentage, a useful leading indicator of walk rate, is better than ever.

Some of the changes seem to be from conscious approach decisions. Graveman started throwing his four-seamer a lot more often in 2022 and has continued that this year but is now almost exclusively throwing it center-high. The result has been a lot more loft on these pitches. In fact, basically all of Graveman’s pitches, including his sinker, have been hit about 10 degrees higher than last year. It’s been enough to transform him from a reasonably strong groundballer in recent years to a pitcher allowing more fly balls than average. On the negative side, his slider has lost some bite, with its break closer to league-average than at his peak, leading to a lower whiff rate (35%) than in 2022 (43%) or ’21 (44%). ZiPS sees him with a 3.59 FIP for the rest of 2023 in Houston and a 3.72 mark in 2024. Read the rest of this entry »