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FanGraphs Audio: Drew Saylor Talks Royals Prospects

Episode 949

This week on the podcast, we learn a lot about Kansas City’s farm system before a chat about potential moves before the 40-man roster deadline.

  • To kick things off, David Laurila welcomes Drew Saylor, hitting coordinator for the Kansas City Royals. Saylor shares his journey to the position, and what it was like to begin the job just before a very challenging and strange 2020 season. We also get an inside perspective on a number of promising players who could make an impact with the big league club before long, including Bobby Witt Jr., MJ Melendez, Nick Pratto, Nathan Eaton, Seuly Matias, and more. [2:09]
  • In the second half, RosterResource guru Jason Martinez is joined by lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen to discuss the 40-man roster deadline. There are a number of players around the league who teams must add to the 40-man roster to protect them from the Rule 5 draft this winter, which also unfortunately means some players will be designated for assignment to make room. Jason and Eric go over some of the more obvious transactions they expect to happen as well as a few intriguing players who might catch a team’s eye if left up for grabs. [31:58]

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Audio after the jump. (Approximate 1 hour 9 minutes play time.)


Job Posting: San Diego Padres Sports Science Intern

Position: Intern

Department: Sports Science
Reports To: Director, Sports Science

Summary:
The San Diego Padres are seeking Interns in Sports Science. Each Sports Science Intern will be based out of one of the Padres minor league affiliates (Low-A Lake Elsinore, High-A Fort Wayne, Double-A San Antonio, Triple-A El Paso, or our Complex in Peoria). Candidates can indicate which affiliates they are able to locate to during the application process. Interns will be responsible for collecting/maintaining/organizing data from all player development technologies and using that data to assist coaches and other Sports Science staff in designing and implementing development plans for players in the Padres organization. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Tampa Bay Rays Baseball Systems Positions

Please note, this posting contains four positions.

Position: Software Developer

The Tampa Bay Rays are looking for an experienced Ruby on Rails Developer to help the Baseball Systems department build the best software and analytics solutions in all of Major League Baseball. Read the rest of this entry »


2022 Golden Days Era Committee Candidate: Gil Hodges

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Golden Days Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to this year’s ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Futility Infielder. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Gil Hodges

2022 Golden Days Candidate: Gil Hodges
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Gil Hodges 43.9 33.7 38.8
Avg. HOF 1B 66.9 42.7 54.8
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
1,921 370 .273/.359/.487 131
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

“Hodges was the solid anchorman around whom the others revolved. He lent class and dignity and respect to his team and to his profession. As has been written — and rightly so — he had all the attributes of an Eagle Scout. This was quite a man.” — Arthur Daley, New York Times, April 4, 1972

Gil Hodges was a genuinely beloved player in his day and is probably the most popular candidate on the Golden Days ballot. Indeed, he might be the most popular candidate on any ballot. More collective emotion has been spent trying to will Hodges — a 6-foot-2, 210-pound gentle giant — into Cooperstown than any other player. The closest miss, he surpassed 60% three times on the BBWAA ballot, peaking at 63.4% in 1983, his final year of eligibility; outside of currently eligible candidates, he stands as the only one even to cross the 50% threshold without eventually getting elected via the Veterans or Era Committees, an exception of which anyone who’s followed my work for the past two decades is almost certainly aware. What’s more, biographer Danny Peary claims that in 1993, when Ted Williams led the Veterans Committee, he would not allow ailing committee member Roy Campanella to vote by phone; thus, Hodges missed by one vote. He’s never gotten any closer.

Hodges was the Dodgers’ regular first baseman from 1948 through ’61, a span during which he earned All-Star honors eight times and helped his team to six pennants (plus another in 1947, when he was a reserve) and two championships. After returning to New York in 1962 as a reserve on the dismal expansion Mets, he managed the Senators before coming back to Queens and overseeing the ’69 team’s miraculous upset of the Orioles in the World Series. Further managerial success at that level eluded him, as he died of a heart attack on April 2, 1972, two days shy of his 48th birthday. Read the rest of this entry »


Blue Jays Sign José Berríos to Reasonable, Necessary Extension

A busy early offseason continued apace on Tuesday, with the Blue Jays coming to terms with pitcher José Berríos on a seven-year deal worth up to $131 million, pending the usual physical. The new pact buys out the last year of his arbitration eligibility and includes limited trade protection and an opt-out clause that the former Twins ace can exercise after the 2026 season.

It would be hard to characterize this one as a major surprise. The players who went to Minnesota in return for Berríos, Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson, were ranked here as the second- and third-best prospects in Toronto’s system, respectively. To get a richer haul at the deadline, you had to trade literally Max Scherzer and Trea Turner. It’s not the type of move you make if you want the pitcher to walk in 14 months with only a possible draft compensation pick in exchange.

Berríos hasn’t developed into a superstar, but he’s been consistently in that 110–120 ERA+, borderline-ace territory since being promoted to Minnesota for good in early 2017. And he has one thing that many other star pitchers lack: a nearly flawless record of avoiding injury; as a major leaguer, he hasn’t made an appearance on the Injured List or missed a single start due to injury. The most he’s been nicked up was being pulled from a start because of a blister in 2019 and some abdominal tightness this September. It’s not just luck; injury time is a useful predictor of future injury time.

At the time of the trade, Toronto’s rotation ranked 19th in baseball in total WAR, nearly a win behind the Royals at 18. The starting pitching was coming around with the emergence of Alek Manoah in June, but he missed some time with a back contusion stemming from a fall in the dugout, and Nate Pearson’s groin problems were enough to keep him from serving as a reinforcement down the stretch. In a packed wild-card race with the Jays 4 1/2 games back at the trade deadline, Berríos provided an opportunity for a significant upgrade in the rotation, and he was as good as advertised, putting up a 3.58 ERA and a 3.28 FIP over 12 starts and throwing seven consecutive quality starts to finish his 2021 campaign.

ZiPS Projection – José Berríos (Preliminary)
Year W L S ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO ERA+ WAR
2022 13 8 0 3.81 31 31 184.3 169 78 27 44 191 118 3.7
2023 12 8 0 3.85 29 29 173.0 157 74 25 41 176 117 3.4
2024 11 8 0 3.93 28 28 169.3 155 74 25 40 169 114 3.2
2025 10 7 0 3.92 26 26 153.7 140 67 22 36 153 115 2.9
2026 9 7 0 3.94 24 24 144.0 133 63 22 34 145 114 2.7
2027 9 7 0 4.00 23 23 135.0 125 60 21 32 137 112 2.4
2028 8 6 0 4.13 21 21 126.3 119 58 20 31 128 109 2.1

Read the rest of this entry »


Louis Head Joins an Under-the-Radar Marlins Bullpen

Unless you’re a diehard fan, you’d be hard pressed to name a single member of the Marlins bullpen. Given that they traded away a bunch of their relievers in July and still look like they’re a few years away from building a true contender, that’s not surprising. Building a lockdown relief corps isn’t the top priority based on where they are in their rebuild. But GM Kim Ng mentioned during last week’s General Manager Meetings that adding depth to the bullpen was part of the offseason to-do list — a bit of surprise given the context above. They started to address that depth right away, too, acquiring right-handed pitcher Louis Head on Sunday from the Rays for a player to be named later or cash considerations.

Miami’s relief corps was pretty solid in 2021, with the third best park- and league-adjusted FIP in the National League, 8% better than league average. But Marlins relievers weren’t exactly flamethrowers; collectively, they posted a 22.0% strikeout rate, the fourth-worst mark in baseball. Instead, the team employed a bunch of pitchers who ran above-average ground-ball rates, helping them successfully manage the contact they did allow. As a group, they had the fifth-highest ground-ball rate and second-lowest barrel rate in baseball.

Marlins Bullpen
Player Age How Acquired IP K% BB% FIP WAR
Dylan Floro 31 Trade (LAD) | Feb ’21 64 23.0% 9.3% 2.81 1.5
Zach Thompson 28 Free Agent (MiLB) | Dec ’20 75* 21.0% 8.9% 3.69 1.3
Anthony Bender 27 Free Agent (MiLB) | Dec ’20 61.1 28.7% 8.1% 3.19 1.0
Richard Bleier 35 Trade (BAL) | Aug ’20 58 19.6% 2.7% 3.01 1.0
Louis Head 32 Trade (TBR) Nov ’21 35 23.9% 6.7% 3.11 0.4
Zach Pop 25 Trade (ARI) | Dec ’20 54.2 20.7% 9.8% 3.77 0.3
Steven Okert 31 Free Agent (MiLB) | Feb ’21 36 28.2% 10.6% 4.34 0.1
Anthony Bass 34 Free Agent (2 yr, $5M) | Jan ’21 61.1 22.3% 9.2% 4.93 -0.4
*Thompson had 14 starts and 12 relief appearances in 2021

Bass was signed to a two-year deal last offseason, making him the highest paid member of this group. A surprising number of minor league free agents ended up making a solid contribution in the majors, and the rest were acquired via the same kind of under-the-radar trade that brought Head into the fold. Despite all their success this year, the average age of these relievers is 30.3 years old. It’s a competent collection of relievers assembled from the castoffs of other organizations, and Head fits in perfectly.
Read the rest of this entry »


2022 Golden Days Era Committee Candidate: Tony Oliva

The following article is part of a series concerning the 2022 Golden Days Era Committee ballot, covering managers and long-retired players whose candidacies will be voted upon on December 5. For an introduction to this year’s ballot, see here, and for an introduction to JAWS, see here. Several profiles in this series are adapted from work previously published at SI.com, Baseball Prospectus, and Futility Infielder. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Tony Oliva

2022 Golden Days Candidate: Tony Oliva
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Tony Oliva 43.0 38.6 40.8
Avg. HOF RF 72.1 42.5 57.3
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
1,917 220 .304/.353/.476 131
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

Cuban emigré Tony Oliva spent his entire 15-year career (1962-76) with the Twins, and for a while, he appeared to be Cooperstown-bound. A flashy five-tool player at the outset of his career, he took home AL Rookie of the Year honors in 1964, made eight All-Star teams, and won a trio of batting titles, including a pair in his first two full seasons (1964 and ’65), making him the first player to do so; in the latter year, the sweet-swinging lefty helped the Twins to their first pennant. Unfortunately, a series of knee injuries diminished Oliva’s effectiveness, cut into his playing time in his 30s, and led to an early departure from the majors.

Oliva’s origin story is a confusing one. He was born Pedro Oliva II in Pinar del Rio, a rural province of Cuba, the third of 10 children. However, like his countryman Minnie Minoso, there’s some ambiguity of the year of his birth. Baseball Reference and Major League Baseball report his birthdate as July 20, 1938, meaning that he was 24 when he debuted, 26 when he won Rookie of the Year honors (at the conclusion of his age-25 season), and 38 when he played his last game. By the player’s own account in his autobiography, he was born on July 20, 1941, and used older brother Antonio’s birth certificate to acquire a passport and leave Cuba in the aftermath of the 1959 Fidel Castro-led revolution, hence his being known as Tony. Read the rest of this entry »


In One-Year Deal for Syndergaard, Angels Acquire Upside and Risk

The Angels made their first splash of the offseason on Tuesday by signing Noah Syndergaard to a one-year, $21 million deal, per ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He was no. 15 on our top 50 free agent rankings despite missing all of 2020 because of Tommy John surgery on his right elbow, and though he was expected back early in 2021, a large setback in his recovery cost him just almost the entirety of that season as well. Two innings out of the bullpen in late September is all we’ve seen out of him in the last two years.

Syndergaard’s Career Before Elbow Surgery (2015–19)
Stat Ranking Among Starters
ERA 3.31 20th
ERA- 84 28th
FIP 2.93 5th
FIP- 72 7th
WAR 18.7 10th
K% 26.3% 24th
BB% 5.7% 23rd
Fastball Velo 98.1 1st

A one-year deal this winter makes a lot of sense for Syndergaard, who can rebuild his value in hopes of getting a long-term contract next offseason. It’s less of a no-brainer for the Angels, as there is no opportunity to cash in on future years in case of a bounce-back, and it’s hard to imagine Syndergaard will be in top form in 2022, given the thick layer of rust that surely needs to be knocked off of him. Most teams probably viewed signing him as a two-year project. Look no further than his 2018 season, though, to see the outcome the Angels envision. Coming off a torn lat muscle that cost him most of his 2017 campaign, he proceeded to put up a 3.03 ERA/2.80 FIP over 154.1 innings despite diminished velocity.

Read the rest of this entry »


With Manny Piña Signed, the Thin Catching Market Withers Further

On Monday, the Braves announced the signing of a backup backstop, adding catcher Manny Piña on two-year, $8 million contact. Also included in the agreement is a club option for 2024 valued at $4 million that comes without a buyout. Piña will slide in behind Travis d’Arnaud — who is also signed through 2023 — on Atlanta’s depth chart.

On the surface, the move is a relatively minor one. Piña, the Brewers’ longest-tenured player at the time of his departure, appeared in 75 games last season, making just 52 starts behind the dish as the backup to Omar Narváez. In that time, he was relatively productive, slashing .189/.293/.439 in 208 plate appearances, good for a 95 wRC+. He was also quite solid behind the plate, throwing out 30% of attempted base stealers, notably above the league-average of 25%. This is not a new trait, either: Piña has boasted an above-average ability to control the running game throughout his career, with a 35% caught-stealing rate. He’s also a solid framer, with his numbers really taking a step forward in recent seasons. Since 2019, Piña has been worth +11.6 framing runs above-average, ranking ninth in baseball despite not even catching 1,000 innings in that time. (Tyler Flowers is the only other catcher in the top 10 with fewer than 1,000 innings caught.) Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Guardians Minor League Hitting Coach

Position: Minor League Hitting Coach

Primary Purpose
The Cleveland Guardians are currently seeking a Minor League Hitting Coach to join the Player Development Department.The ideal candidate will possess a passion for player and personal growth, experience integrating multiple information sources to create and implement hitting plans, and a thorough understanding of skill acquisition principles. Excellent applicants will demonstrate curiosity, creativity, and a drive to learn new concepts to problem solve. First and foremost, we are looking for great people! Read the rest of this entry »