Here’s a story that you hear all too often these days. A reliever has a breakout season, perhaps aided by leaning more into throwing his best pitch to the exclusion of everything else. He parlays that into an offseason deal, or maybe a newly-prominent role on his current team. Then the next season starts, and the bloom is off the rose. Whatever ineffable magic powered last season is simply gone.

Here’s another story you hear all too often these days. A reliever has a bad stretch, looks like he might be cooked. The Rays, though, have seen something in him. They trade for him, whisper a few sweet nothings (or, fine, mechanical adjustments) into his ear, and bam! He’s part of their bullpen army.

Here’s the fun part: Matt Wisler personifies both of these stories. He was so bad the Giants designated him for assignment after a horrid start, then agreed to a trade with the Rays. Since heading East, he’s been incredible, one of the best relievers in the game. Seriously, look at these splits:

I had to know what changed. I’ll warn you: there’s a lot of failure in this article, a lot of finding not much, before we get to the good stuff — and I promise there’s good stuff. If you’re not into seeing how a pitcher can get to wildly different results with a substantially similar process, this article might bore you. But if you’re curious like I was, read on, and delve deeply with me into the minutiae of a pitcher who didn’t change very much and yet went from unplayable to great. Read the rest of this entry »

When Nicky Lopez steps to the plate, there is no in-between to his game. Of the 315 players who have seen at least 1,000 pitches over the past two seasons, Lopez places 27th in swinging strike rate (7.5%), in the top third in chase rate (24.7%), and in the top quarter in terms of the percentage of pitches put into play (18.8%) (all stats are through games on August 10). He combines elite plate discipline with an uncanny knack for making contact, an unusual mix of skills in the majors today. Players tend to make a trade-off when choosing to be more selective by accepting that they will put fewer balls in play. Balls in play have about a 178-point wOBA advantage over plate appearances that end in a walk or strikeout. But balls in play on pitches outside of the strike zone only enjoy a 97-point advantage over the combination of walks and strikeouts, a much less enticing proposition. Thus, by avoiding swinging at pitches outside the zone, hitters maximize their chances of putting a high-value batted ball into play, but also lengthen the plate appearance and increase the chance they strikeout. Lopez does not make this tradeoff, as you can see below:

I referenced Lopez’s minuscule 7.5% swinging strike rate; as a percentage of the total number of pitches he has seen, he rarely swings and comes up empty. He either makes contact or doesn’t swing at all. And the rate at which he swings at pitches overall is another indication of his selectivity. Over the last two seasons (2020-21), he’s swung at just 44.2% of the pitches he has seen, 2.9 percentage points less than the rest of the league over that sample.

Selectivity is great if you make it count when you do swing and put the ball in play on those pitches more towards the heart of the zone. Lopez’s problem, especially in his 2019 debut and last season, is that he often hasn’t reaped the benefits of his patience. This is the other side of his game. He has posted barrel rates in the second, fourth, and first percentiles and hard-hit rates in the second and sixth percentiles in his three seasons in the big leagues. He has also yielded zone run values per 100 pitches of -4.44, -5.17, and -3.02 in those seasons, compared to 1.86, 2.30, and 2.97 on pitches out of the zone, a product of his excellent approach but lack of punch when pitchers challenge him (average is 2.10 for out of zone and -2.21 for in zone). His career wOBAcon on the balls he puts in play inside the strike zone is just .302, 101 points lower than the league over that span. Through 937 major league plate appearances, he has hit three home runs, none of which have come in 2021. His extreme lack of pop has manifested itself in a 56 and 55 wRC+ in 2019 and ’20, respectively, the latter of which was also a product of his in-zone contact rate cratering to 82.4%. That placed him in the 51st percentile in 2020, not nearly high enough to offset the types of balls he puts into play. Read the rest of this entry »

This series of articles looks at players whose careers are cut short due to misfortune, but few of them are cases as sudden or as dramatic as that of former Astros pitcher J.R. Richard, who died one week ago at age 70. The Houston fireballer had emerged as one of the game’s hardest throwing starters and a potential ace when he suffered a stroke 41 years ago and collapsed during the team’s pregame warmups. He never pitched in the majors again.

Richard’s debut was about as brilliant as one can get: a complete-game shutout of the Giants in September 1971 in which he struck out 15 batters. This was toward the end of Willie Mays‘ illustrious career, but how many pitchers can claim to have pulled off a hat trick of whiffs against an inner-circle Hall of Famer in their debut? Those 15 strikeouts tied pitcher Karl Spooner’s debut record; incidentally, Spooner is another player with a short career that was ended by a shoulder injury a year later, but that’s a tale for another time.

As a pitcher, Richard looks more at home in 2021 than in 1970. At 6’8″ with a fastball hitting the century mark and a slider in the low 90s, there was a lot of intimidation and little in the way of pitching to contact here. The only problem was that he was raw mechanically, just two years out of high school, and coaching staffs weren’t as experienced as today at helping pitchers harness such an explosive repertoire; over his 12 remaining innings that season, including a first inning he didn’t finish, Richard walked 13 batters.

The wildness never quite went away, and Richard spent the new few years riding the Triple-A shuttle. But the Astros traded Claude Osteen in 1974 for two recent Cardinals draft picks, and Don Wilson and his son died in January 1975 from carbon monoxide poisoning, and these were the days you couldn’t just go shopping in free agency. So up to the majors came Richard for good.

Read the rest of this entry »

Don Mattingly knows hitting. The Miami Marlins manager slashed .307/.358/.471 over his 14 seasons with the New York Yankees, winning a batting title along the way. Since his playing days, he’s served as a hitting coach for both his former team and for the Los Angeles Dodgers. “Donnie Baseball” also managed the Dodgers, a five-season stint that preceded his arrival in Miami six years ago.

Mattingly shared his thoughts on hitting, both mechanical and philosophical, over the phone prior to a recent game. (This interview was edited for length and clarity.)

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David Laurila: Let’s start with your playing career. How would you describe who you were as a hitter?

Don Mattingly: “I kind of changed over the years. I came up as a guy who was probably known more for just putting the ball in play. I hit for [a high] average in the minor leagues. I used the whole field and had more of a hit-it-where-it’s-pitched type approach. From there, I kind of grew in strength, which allowed me to drive in runs. I became more of a doubles guy.”

Laurila: Was the change mostly a matter of getting stronger, or were there adjustments, as well?

Mattingly: “I definitely made adjustments. The biggest was probably getting physically stronger — that was the start of it — [because] I didn’t really hit for true home run power. I didn’t have home run power through the minor leagues. Read the rest of this entry »

As a shortstop, you never want to be in this position:

You can almost see the expletives flying out of his mouth, and it gets worse: Nolan Arenado is out of frame to the right, which means that ball is ticketed for left field. How did it get to this point? Let’s back up.

When you’re fielding a bunt, decisions come at you immediately. Barehand it? Glove it? Lead runner? Take a beat and take the sure out? You have to make all of those choices in a split second. Here’s the play in the ninth inning of Sunday’s Cardinals/Royals game that left Paul DeJong lunging helplessly:

Obviously, it didn’t turn out well. But it’s not as though Paul Goldschmidt didn’t know there was a chance of failure going in. Going for the lead runner on a bunt is a high-risk, high-reward play; anyone could tell you that. How large was the risk? How valuable was the reward? Let’s find out together, because I think this situation is low-key fascinating. Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Sports Biomechanics Analyst

Location: Glendale, AZ
Duration: Full-Time

Position Overview:
The Chicago White Sox are searching for a passionate individual to expand their biomechanics and sports science capabilities. As a Sports Biomechanics Analyst, you will lead and coordinate the collection and analysis of motion capture data at the team’s Glendale pitching and hitting labs while also integrating markerless and wearable technologies and data sets. The analyst will work closely with the player development, sports science, and R&D teams to develop actionable training and insights to accelerate development paths, achieve peak performance, and reduce injury risk. Read the rest of this entry »

At the trade deadline, the Nationals cleaned house. Max Scherzer and Trea Turner went to the Dodgers, Brad Hand to the Blue Jays. Kyle Schwarber? He’s now on the Red Sox. Daniel Hudson? A Padre. Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes are Athletics, and for some reason, the Cardinals decided to acquire Jon Lester. What’s left of the Washington Nationals are bits and pieces from their 2019 World Series run, some young prospects, franchise mainstay Ryan Zimmerman, and Juan Soto.

It’s probably too soon to ask when the Nationals will find themselves contending again. However, both their retention of Soto and their acquisition of major league-ready prospects Josiah Gray and Keibert Ruiz potentially indicates that the front office at least hopes the team will play meaningful baseball sometime in the near future. While things may look a bit hazy in the immediate wake of the deadline, one player whose performance could influence the timing of the Nationals next competitive window is Patrick Corbin, who still has three years left on his contract after 2021.

Over the last two seasons, Corbin hasn’t been especially good. After a sparkling debut season with Washington, one that culminated in the aforementioned championship, Corbin has been average or worse since. He pitched 202 innings in 2019 to the tune of a 3.25 ERA, a 28.5% strikeout rate, and a 8.4% walk rate. He was worth 4.7 WAR, a figure that ranked 14th in the majors (it was good for third on his own team). The Nationals assembled a super-staff that year, and as I asserted on this very website, the pickup of Corbin the prior offseason made a huge difference in the team’s success not only in the regular season, but in the postseason as well. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ve spent way too much time pondering how to begin this article. So instead of formulating a timely and witty introduction, I’ll be direct: The Blue Jays offense is amazing! You already know that, but it bears repeating. Together, Jays hitters have amassed the league’s second-highest wRC+ while maintaining the league’s second-lowest strikeout rate. This is scary, and this is legit.

Right now, the only team with a higher wRC+ is the Astros. The only team with a lower strikeout rate is… also the Astros. And it’s easy to explain. They don’t have the most power or the best discipline, but they do lead the league in O-Contact%. Even when would-be balls are swung at, they’re either put in play or fouled off. Couple that with a minuscule swinging-strike rate of 8.7%, and it’s a team poised to give opposing pitchers fits. Tenacity wins.

As for the Blue Jays, however, their formula isn’t immediately noticeable. Duh, they have the best hitter on the planet. I know, imaginary voice, but I’m talking about the team as a whole. A few days ago, the Jays routed the visiting Red Sox, outscoring them by eight runs. Let’s consider how the ambush unfolded. Nathan Eovaldi had managed to salvage a rough start until the fifth inning, when Teoscar Hernández unleashed his full strength against a first-pitch fastball:

Read the rest of this entry »

Cleveland’s willingness to trade Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco was the result of two related factors: ownership would not pay anything close to market value for one of the best players in baseball; and the club believed it could maintain competitiveness on the cheap with its core of cost-controlled pitching still receiving pre-arbitration checks. Shane Bieber is the headliner, but breakout seasons from previously unheralded prospects Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac gave the soon-to-be Guardians confidence that they could suppress runs at an above-average clip and hand the game off to a good bullpen.

That plan has not come to pass; Cleveland’s pitching staff ranks just 19th in WAR as of the writing of this piece. But while the bullpen has held up its end of the bargain, sitting ninth in WAR among relief units, the rotation has accumulated just 4 WAR total through the beginning of August.

Much of that can be attributed to the three starters who were supposed to lead the way. Bieber and Civale have been on ice for most season due to a shoulder strain for the former and a finger injury for the latter; both were recently moved to the 60-day IL with the hope of returning in September. Plesac has also missed time, but he hasn’t helped much when he has been on the field. Through his most recent start, he has posted a 4.84 ERA and 5.08 FIP and a strikeout rate of only 15.6%, fifth lowest among starters with at least 80 innings pitched.

Read the rest of this entry »

The Learning and Developing a Pitch series returned last month after being on hiatus due to the pandemic. Each week, we’ll hear from three pitchers on a notable weapon in their arsenal. Today’s installment features Trevor Richards, Tayler Saucedo, and Cole Sulser.

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Trevor Richards, Toronto Blue Jays

“I probably began learning [a changeup] in grade school, back when I was just starting to figure out pitching and was only allowed to throw a fastball and a changeup. My coach showed me a grip. It started out as a two-seam grip, then kind of evolved from there. Eventually I changed it to a four-seam, and that’s pretty much the same grip I’m using now.

“The four-seam felt more comfortable, and I also felt like I could get more depth on it going across the seams. When I was going two-seam, it would have more run than depth and I preferred it going down rather than just running. I know a lot of guys who grip it [similarly] but use two seams, so honestly, I think it’s more of a preference, more of an arm-slot kind of thing. It just depends, person-to-person. Read the rest of this entry »