Let’s talk a little bit about outrage. How would you feel if you were Edwin Rios and this happened to you?

Outraged is the way I’d feel. Come on! There’s nothing about that pitch that says strike. 4,356 pitches were thrown over the plate and within an inch up or down from that one, and none of the other 4,355 were called strikes. This call is outrageous! It’s unfair.

Sadly, I’m not Jeff Sullivan, so I’m not going to do a post about the worst called balls and strikes of 2020. I wanted to start with that pitch as an appetizer, though, because I do enjoy the genre of “pitch that shouldn’t be a strike gets called a strike.” But forget quality — it’s overrated. Let’s focus on quantity instead.

On September 9, Tyler Anderson threw 100 pitches. He received a whopping 22 called strikes — not too shabby! It was his second-best mark of the year in games where he threw at least 50 pitches. Here’s the real kicker — 12 of those 22 weren’t in the strike zone.

Let’s look at one of those to set the stage. Here’s a pitch that got Dylan Moore looking for a strikeout:

Wait, is that haze in the background? Indeed it is — this game was played under a wildfire-induced haze. No, it’s not that Mariners game against a Bay Area club that was impacted by wildfires — you’re thinking of the Oakland-Seattle clash on September 14, a doubleheader played in and under smoky skies. It’s also not that Mariners game against a bay Area club that was played in San Francisco — you’re thinking of the September 15 decision to relocate the A’s/Mariners tilt to California to avoid the unhealthy Seattle air. 2020 sure was a doozy. Read the rest of this entry »

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. As there was no minor league season in 2020, there are some instances where no new information was gleaned about a player. Players whose write-ups have not been altered begin by telling you so. For the others, the blurb ends with an indication of where the player played in 2020, which in turn likely informed the changes to their report. As always, I’ve leaned more heavily on sources from outside the org than within for reasons of objectivity. Because outside scouts were not allowed at the alternate sites, I’ve primarily focused on data from there. Lastly, in effort to more clearly indicate relievers’ anticipated roles, you’ll see two reliever designations, both in lists and on The Board: MIRP, or multi-inning relief pitcher, and SIRP, or single-inning relief pitcher.

For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed, you can click here. For further explanation of Future Value’s merits and drawbacks, read Future Value.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It can be found here.

Editor’s Note: Yoelqui Cespedes and Norge Vera were added to this list after they agreed to deals with the White Sox on January 15.

Position: Database Engineer I, Baseball Systems

Job Description:
The database engineer will be responsible for maintaining and expanding the Rangers’ baseball operations data warehouse and data pipelines. The role is responsible for importing and integrating data from external providers, and interacting with the R&D department to implement models and build reports.

Responsibilities:

• Database design
• Export, Transform and Load multiple data feeds (ETL)
• Assist in creating and monitoring data quality initiatives, resolving issues, and communicating to stakeholders
• Writing and updating SSRS reports
• Collaboration with application/web developer on app development
• Basic support for end users of reports and applications
• Update and maintain documentation for database and applications

Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Baseball Operations Analyst

Reports To: Director of Baseball Analytics
Department: Baseball Operations
Status: Exempt
Position Type: Full-Time
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona

Position Summary:
The San Francisco Giants are seeking an Analyst to join the Baseball Operations department. This individual will be part of the R&D team with the primary focus to provide dedicated research and analysis to support the Player Development staff. They will also interact with the Major League staff and Front Office to implement organizational initiatives. The ideal candidate will possess strong analytical skills, the ability to communicate effectively to non-technical people, and both passion and intellectual curiosity for the game of baseball.

Position Responsibilities:

• Provide statistical analysis and quantitative research to support the Player Development staff
• Implement initiatives from the Front Office & Major League staff
• Communicate analysis to Baseball Operations staff effectively
• Execute advance preparation, after action reporting, and player development initiatives
• Research, design, and test predictive and statistical models using data and technology to support all aspects of Baseball Operations
• Collaborate with engineering team to design and integrate tools into existing baseball information system
• Work with emerging baseball technology and data sets
• Maintain understanding of new public baseball research and emerging statistical tools, as well as all potential vendor data/technology options

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The offseason remains slow, but the reliever market saw some moves this week, with a trio of free agents scoring new contracts. Greg Holland signed a one-year, $2.75 million deal to come back to the Royals, who continue to act aggressively this winter. Former Brewers lefty Alex Claudio signed a one-year, $1.25 million commitment to join the Angels, who recently traded for closer Raisel Iglesias. And speaking of the Angels, Keynan Middleton signed a one-year contract with the Mariners, who also added Rafael Montero via a trade with Texas this week.

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Boston Red Sox.

Batters

The Red Sox took a great deal of heat for the zeal with which they traded Mookie Betts last offseason, practically advertising to the world their intent to deal him as if it were a point of pride. When was the last time you saw a restaurant send out a press release announcing that their food was going to get worse? However you feel about the wisdom of the trade, it was a significant short-term downgrade for a team that had nearly fallen off the proverbial cliff in 2019. As a bizarre silver lining, Boston struggled so much in 2020 that, even in a 16-team playoff, it seems unlikely that they would have made the playoffs if they had retained Betts. He wasn’t five wins better than his replacements, after all.

While Boston finished the season in last place in the AL East, even looking up at the Orioles, the offense didn’t really have a lot to do with that bleak result. Ranking 12th in baseball in wRC+ and 11th in overall runs scored doesn’t exactly reek of awesomeness, but it’s at least respectable, something .400 teams aren’t particularly known for. Nor was there a dramatic drop-off in Boston’s very ordinary defense. Some things did go right, but certainly not everything:

• J.D. Martinez and Michael Chavis were dreadful.
• Rafael Devers took a step back from his 2019 season.
• Andrew Benintendi’s ribcage strain could arguably be called his seasonal highlight.

Read the rest of this entry »

The fact that Andy Haines has been coaching for close to two decades doesn’t make him unique among his contemporaries. But his background does differ. Two years into his tenure as the hitting coach of the Milwaukee Brewers, Haines is just 43 years old. He’s either been coaching or managing for basically his entire adult life.

Haines earned a master’s degree from Middle Tennessee State University, and since that time he’s tutored players in independent ball, at every level of the minors — including as a coordinator — and more recently in the majors. An assistant hitting coach with the Chicago Cubs in 2018, where he worked alongside Chili Davis, Haines was hired into his current role by the Brewers in November of that same year.

———

David Laurila: What stands out to you about today’s hitting environment?

Andy Haines: “What’s prevalent right now is how things have evolved with technology. Hitting is still at the mercy of pitching — it’s still a reactionary event — and the trends in the game somewhat dictate what hitters need to do to have success. You’re seeing guys rip four-seamers at the top. With technology, guys in the minor leagues can practice not only spinning the ball, but how efficiently they can spin it, and where it gets the outs.

“Everybody talks about the trends — the Three True Outcomes — and how the game is being played. For me, those are the challenges on the hitting side. And defense is a part of run prevention, too. The defense in the big leagues is incredible. Front offices have more research tools and sophistication as far as defensive metrics. They play you where you hit the baseball. So there are a lot of things trending that make it challenging to score runs.”

Laurila: How similar are big-league hitting coaches right now? Do they all speak the same language — not just the terminology, but also the concepts being prioritized? Read the rest of this entry »

After going all in on their rebuild in 2019, the Mariners have cycled through what seems like a million different pitchers in just two years. (The real figure is 61, the highest number of pitchers used by any team over the last two seasons.) That shouldn’t be surprising considering general manager Jerry Dipoto’s reputation for roster churn and the team’s goal of building a contender in just a few years time; scouring the waiver wire and the Mariners’ minor league system for pitchers who might show enough promise to stick around for a while requires a constant flow of transactions.

Finding plenty of lumps of coal in their quest to uncover those hidden gems, Seattle’s bullpen has been particularly bad as the team prepares to contend again. Over the last three decades, no relief corps has posted a league- and park-adjusted FIP worse than the 2020 Mariners, 33% below league average. They would have had the worst league- and park-adjusted ERA too if it weren’t for the 2020 Phillies’ atrocious bullpen and their 7.06 ERA. When we adjust their collective strikeout-to-walk ratio for their historical context, the 2020 Mariners had the fourth worst K/BB+ in that period, 37% worse than league average.

With their eyes set on coming out of their rebuild as early as next year — but more realistically in 2022 — Dipoto has made addressing that historically bad bullpen a primary goal of this offseason. The Mariners already re-signed Kendall Graveman, one of the few bright spots in the bullpen this year, and selected Will Vest in the Rule-5 draft last week. Yesterday, they took another next step in bolstering their bullpen by acquiring Rafael Montero from the Rangers. In return, 17-year-old prospect Jose Corniell and a Player To Be Named Later are headed to Texas. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2021 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2013 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Roger Clemens has a reasonable claim as the greatest pitcher of all time. Cy Young, Christy Mathewson, Walter Johnson, and Grover Cleveland Alexander spent all or most of their careers in the dead-ball era, before the home run was a real threat, and pitched while the color line was still in effect, barring some of the game’s most talented players from participating. Sandy Koufax and Tom Seaver pitched when scoring levels were much lower and pitchers held a greater advantage. Koufax and 2015 inductees Randy Johnson and Pedro Martinez didn’t sustain their greatness for nearly as long. Greg Maddux didn’t dominate hitters to nearly the same extent.

Clemens, meanwhile, spent 24 years in the majors and racked up a record seven Cy Young awards, not to mention an MVP award. He won 354 games, led his leagues in the Triple Crown categories (wins, strikeouts, and ERA) a total of 16 times, and helped his teams to six pennants and a pair of world championships.

Alas, whatever claim “The Rocket” may have on such an exalted title is clouded by suspicions that he used performance-enhancing drugs. When those suspicions came to light in the Mitchell Report in 2007, Clemens took the otherwise unprecedented step of challenging the findings during a Congressional hearing, but nearly painted himself into a legal corner; he was subject to a high-profile trial for six counts of perjury, obstruction of justice, and making false statements to Congress. After a mistrial in 2011, he was acquitted on all counts the following year. But despite the verdicts, the specter of PEDs hasn’t left Clemens’ case, even given that in March 2015, he settled the defamation lawsuit filed by former personal trainer Brian McNamee for an unspecified amount.

Amid the ongoing Hall of Fame-related debates over hitters connected to PEDs — most prominently Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa — it’s worth remembering that the chemical arms race involved pitchers as well, leveling the playing field a lot more than some critics of the aforementioned sluggers would admit. The voters certainly haven’t forgotten that when it comes to Clemens, whose share of the vote has approximated that of Bonds. Clemens debuted with 37.6% of the vote in 2013 and only in ’16 began making significant headway, climbing to 45.2% thanks largely to the Hall’s purge of voters more than 10 years removed from covering the game. Like Bonds, he surged above 50% — a historically significant marker towards future election — in 2017, benefiting from voters rethinking their positions in the wake of the election of Bud Selig. The former commissioner’s roles in the late-1980s collusion scandal and in presiding over the proliferation of PEDs within the game dwarf the impact of individual PED users and call into question the so-called “character clause.”

Clemens’ march towards Cooperstown has stalled somewhat in the three years since, as he’s added just 6.9% to reach 61.0%. Whether or not the open letter from Hall of Fame Vice Chairman Joe Morgan pleading with voters not to honor players connected to steroids had an impact, the end result has been time run off the clock. He now has just two more shots to get to 75%, which will require voters changing their minds — something only a dwindling number of voters have been willing to do when it comes to Clemens or Bonds.

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for nine years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins.

Batters

To make the playoffs in 2020, the Marlins needed a few things to happen. First, some of their young starting pitching, the organization’s strength, had to take a big step forward. The other thing was that the offense had to become, well, an MLB-ready lineup. With a 2018 team wRC+ of 83 and 2019’s woeful 79, run scoring (or the lack thereof) was a serious drag on the team’s hopes. Doubling this humiliation is the fact that Miami’s punchless attack could be directly linked to the trades of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, Marcell Ozuna, and J.T. Realmuto.

But with the lineup improving to a 95 wRC+ and the pitching being a plus, the Marlins snuck into the playoffs for the first time since 2003. The temporary (crossing fingers) expansion to the playoff field and some fortune also aided, allowing Miami to play October baseball despite a record right around .500 and a Pythagorean record of 26–34. But again, flags fly forever!

The challenge is that the offense remains a team weakness, and it’s unlikely there’s any savior in the organization. While it would be incorrect to say that the Marlins didn’t get anyone solid in return for their quartet of traded stars — Sixto Sánchez is a wonderful young pitcher to have under your employ — it is fair to say that there’s a real chance they didn’t get any offensive contributors in these trades. Starlin Castro is already one (and wasn’t a prospect), and none of Jorge Alfaro, Lewis Brinson, Monte Harrison, Isan Díaz, or Magneuris Sierra were the reasons they made the playoffs. Miami did indirectly pick up a solid prospect by the transitive property of trade-ality — Zac Gallen was acquired in the Ozuna trade and was later swapped for Jazz Chisholm — but only Chisholm projects by ZiPS to have a 10-WAR career. Only two position players project to have at least 10 WAR remaining: Chisholm and Brian Anderson. The average in ZiPS is about five hitters per team, and a young team emerging from a rebuild ought to have more than this at this point. Read the rest of this entry »