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JAWS and the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot: Todd Helton

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2019 election, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Baseball at high altitude is weird. The air is less dense, so pitched balls break less and batted balls carry farther — conditions that greatly favor the hitters. Meanwhile, reduced oxygen levels make breathing harder, physical exertion more costly, and recovery times longer. Ever since major league baseball arrived in Colorado in 1993, no player put up with more of this, the pros and cons of playing at a mile-high elevation, than Todd Helton.

A Knoxville native whose career path initially led to the gridiron, ahead of Peyton Manning on the University of Tennessee quarterback depth chart, Helton shifted his emphasis back to baseball in college and spent his entire 17-year career (1997-2013) playing for the Rockies. “The Toddfather” was without a doubt the greatest player in franchise history, its leader in every major offensive counting stat category save for triples, stolen bases, caught stealing, and sacrifice hits, none of which were major parts of his game. He made five All-Star teams, won three Gold Gloves, a slash line triple crown — leading in batting average, on-base percentage, and slugging percentage in the same season — and served as a starter and a team leader for two playoff teams, including Colorado’s only pennant winner. He posted batting averages above .300 12 times, on-base percentages above .400 nine times, and slugging percentages above .500 eight times. He mashed 40 doubles or more seven times and 30 homers or more six times; twice, he topped 400 total bases, a feat that only one other player (Sammy Sosa) has repeated in the post-1960 expansion era. He drew at least 100 walks in a season five times, yet only struck out 100 times or more once; nine times, he walked more than he struck out.

Because Helton did all of this while spending half of his time at Coors Field, many dismiss his accomplishments without second thought. That he did so with as little self-promotion as possible — and scarcely more exposure — while toiling for a team that had the majors’ sixth-worst record during his tenure makes such dismissal that much easier, and as does the drop-off at the tail end of his career, when injuries, most notably chronic back woes, had sapped his power. He was “The Greatest Player Nobody Knows,” as the New York Times called him in 2000, a year when he flirted with a .400 batting average into September.

Thanks to Helton’s staying power, and to advanced statistics that adjust for the high-offense environment in a particularly high-scoring period in baseball history, we can more clearly see that he ranked among his era’s best players — and has credentials that wouldn’t be out of place in Cooperstown. But to an even greater extent than former teammate Larry Walker, a more complete player who spent just 59% of his career with the Rockies, Helton’s candidacy is off to a slow start. He received just 16.5% of the vote in his first year, 3.8% less than Walker did in his 2011 debut. Hopefully, he can benefit from a less crowded ballot than Walker faced for much of his candidacy, but he’s a long ways from Cooperstown right now.

2020 BBWAA Candidate: Todd Helton
Player Career WAR Peak WAR JAWS
Todd Helton 61.2 46.5 53.9
Avg. HOF 1B 66.8 42.7 54.8
H HR AVG/OBP/SLG OPS+
2,519 369 .316/.414/.539 133
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference

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The Oakland A’s Are Now the Moneyglove Franchise

Matt Chapman lead the way for a superb Oakland defense. (Photo: Keith Allison)

“Don’t let yesterday use up too much of today.” – Will Rogers

The successes of the Moneyball era sowed the seeds of Oakland’s later struggles. While the modernization of baseball’s front office structure was an inevitable process, the success of the Moneyball A’s and the fame that resulted from their efforts likely sped up this evolution. How many movies about a company’s improvement in personnel management get made into a film starring Brad Pitt?

But as more franchises cast off the shackles of baseball beliefs from the 1940s, the A’s quickly found themselves less able to easily leverage knowledge as a considerable advantage over other teams. I tend to believe that teams’ overwrought claims about the Dickensian workhouse state of their finances are unadulterated nonsense, but I don’t think it’s controversial to say that the A’s are one of the poorer organizations in the league. Adding plodding, OBP-heavy Ken Phelps All-Stars and grabbing pitching prospects on the cheap was never going to be a sustainable strategy long-term in a world where the Yankees and Dodgers are rich and smart.

Instead, the A’s have been forced to reinvent their win conditions repeatedly. In their latest iteration, the team has relied on churning out defensive superstars, whether by drafting them (Matt Chapman), helping them improve (Marcus Semien), or by finding under-appreciated defensive talent just as they once drooled over walks (Ramón Laureano). Read the rest of this entry »


Tampa Bay and Zunino Skip Arbitration

The Tampa Bay Rays announced Monday afternoon that they have come to terms with catcher Mike Zunino on a one-year contract. Zunino will be paid $4.5 million in 2020 in what would have been his final year of salary arbitration eligibility. Tampa also holds a club option for 2021 at the same $4.5 million price.

It’s not the sexiest signing, but it’s one where both parties “settle” for something. Zunino struggled offensively in 2019, hitting .165/.232/.312, first splitting time with Michael Perez and then with Travis d’Arnaud. d’Arnaud’s healthy comeback season featured a healthier .263/.323/.459 in Tampa, resulting in him seizing the majority of the catching job from Zunino, with 80 starts in the 125 games the Rays played after acquiring him. Zunino remains a more-than-competent defensive catcher, but continuing a career-long streak of above-average framing runs isn’t quite enough when your wRC+ at the plate is 45. Read the rest of this entry »


Giants Prospect Seth Corry Is on the Rise After Conquering the Sally

Seth Corry dominated in his second full professional season. Pitching for the Augusta GreenJackets, the 2017 third-round pick had both the lowest ERA (1.76) and the most strikeouts (172) of any pitcher at the A-ball level. Moreover, at age 20, he allowed just 73 hits in 122.2 innings. Rightly honored as the South Atlantic League Pitcher of the Year, the lefty will head into 2020 ranked No. 11 on our San Francisco Giants Top Prospects list.

The Alpine, Utah native attributes his breakout to a better understanding of the art of pitching. A lot of the credit for that goes to a fellow southpaw who was more guile than power during his playing days.

“My pitching coach this year was Clay Rapada,” explained Corry. “I call him — in funny terms, but seriously, too — ‘My saving grace.’ He’s the coach I not only wanted, but the coach I needed. He taught me things that I’ll cherish for the rest of my career.”

Pupil and mentor have little in common when it comes to raw ability. According to Corry, that’s why the former big-league reliever’s lessons were so valuable. Read the rest of this entry »


Top 37 Prospects: San Francisco Giants

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the San Francisco Giants. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.

Editor’s Note: Will Wilson was added to this list following his acquisition from the Los Angeles Angels as part of the Zack Cozart trade.

Dany Jimenez was added to this list following his selection by San Francisco in the Rule 5 Draft.

Jose Siri was added to this list at No. 28 after being claimed off waivers.

Giants Top Prospects
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Joey Bart 22.9 AA C 2021 60
2 Marco Luciano 18.1 A- SS 2023 55
3 Heliot Ramos 20.2 AA RF 2022 50
4 Hunter Bishop 21.4 A- CF 2023 45+
5 Luis Matos 17.8 R CF 2024 45+
6 Logan Webb 23.0 MLB RHP 2020 45
7 Will Wilson 21.4 R 2B 2022 45
8 Luis Toribio 19.2 A- 3B 2024 45
9 Alexander Canario 19.6 A- RF 2023 45
10 Mauricio Dubon 25.4 MLB SS 2020 45
11 Jaylin Davis 25.4 MLB RF 2020 40+
12 Seth Corry 21.1 A LHP 2022 40+
13 Gregory Santos 20.2 A RHP 2021 40+
14 Sean Hjelle 22.6 AA RHP 2022 40+
15 Melvin Adon 25.5 AAA RHP 2020 40+
16 Jairo Pomares 19.3 A- CF 2023 40+
17 Prelander Berroa 19.6 A- RHP 2021 40
18 Blake Rivera 21.9 A RHP 2022 40
19 Kai-Wei Teng 21.0 A RHP 2023 40
20 Camilo Doval 22.4 A+ RHP 2021 40
21 Ricardo Genoves 20.5 A C 2021 40
22 P.J. Hilson 19.3 R CF 2023 40
23 Dilan Rosario 18.4 R SS 2024 40
24 Aeverson Arteaga 16.7 R SS 2025 40
25 Tristan Beck 23.4 A+ RHP 2022 40
26 Jake Wong 23.2 A+ RHP 2022 40
27 Kean Wong 24.6 MLB 2B 2020 40
28 Jose Siri 24.6 AAA CF 2020 40
29 Dany Jimenez 24.2 AA RHP 2020 40
30 Trevor McDonald 18.7 R RHP 2024 35+
31 Grant McCray 19.0 R CF 2024 35+
32 Esmerlin Vinicio 16.8 R LHP 2025 35+
33 Logan Wyatt 22.0 A 1B 2023 35+
34 Raffi Vizcaino 24.0 AA RHP 2020 35+
35 Tyler Fitzgerald 22.2 A SS 2023 35+
36 Garrett Frechette 18.9 R 1B 2024 35+
37 Connor Cannon 21.5 A- DH 2023 35+
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60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Georgia Tech (SFG)
Age 22.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 60
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/45 60/60 50/60 35/30 65/70 55/55

Bart’s first full pro season was interrupted by a fractured left hand, which sidelined him for about six weeks, and is the likely reason his 2019 power production was unremarkable until a torrid final week of the season buoyed his stat line. Sent to the Arizona Fall League for extra reps, Bart was the league’s star pupil before he was hit by two pitches in the same game, the second of which fractured his right thumb. That ended his season but in that narrow window of health we saw glimpses of Bart’s power with physically fit phalanges. And we had plenty of looks at his power, particularly to his pull side, in college, including a titanic blast that cleared the facade of Georgia Tech’s football complex in left field and was never found.

The defensive tools are the foundation of Bart’s skillset, the cornerstone of a certain big league future. He’s Mike Alstott’s size but with the lateral quickness and ground game of a small-framed catcher. He’s quick out of his crouch and throws accurate lasers to second base. He also has field general qualities: he’s a rousing, vocal leader at times, a calming presence at others. We still have some questions about the hit tool — we posited Bart was just frustrated by being pitched around in college and developed some bad habits, but he was swing-happy again in 2019. Still, we think he’ll get to much or all of his power, play all-world defense, and be an All-Star catcher, a proper heir apparent to Buster Posey.

55 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 18.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 55
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/60 60/70 25/70 50/45 40/45 50/55

The Giants dusty, tightly-confined backfields abut a gym with the sort of athleisure-wearing clientele you’d expect in Scottsdale. Last January, when most baseball facilities across the country were dark, just feet away from oblivious Peloton riders and tennis-playing retirees, a lucky few scouts and media folks had a religious experience watching the sweetest-swinging teenager on Earth absolutely roast balls fed to his barrel by a high-speed pitching machine. Because of how close you can sit next to the field there, you can feel the sonic force of bat-to-ball impact radiate into your body. When Marco Luciano connects, you feel it to your core. He is not normal. To find bat speed comps you need to look toward Javier Baez, Eric Davis, whatever the top of your mental catalog might be. And while he already generates plenty of it, Luciano’s square-shouldered frame indicates more power might be coming. The length created by Luciano’s natural, uppercut swing is offset by the explosiveness in his hands; he’s not particularly strikeout-prone and he doesn’t take out-of-control hacks. Unless something unforeseen about Luciano’s approach is exposed as he moves through the minors, all of this power seems likely to actualize. His AZL walk rate is encouraging early evidence that he’s unlikely to be so exposed.

As an athlete and infielder, Luciano is only fair. He might play a passable shortstop one day because his hands and actions are fine most of the time, but he can’t presently make strong, accurate throws from multiple platforms. It looks increasingly likely that he’ll move to the outfield, enough so that some scouts have him projected there, but it’s too early to cut bait and move him. He has elite hitting talent, he’s produced on paper, and he already has average exit velos and a hard-hit rate that grade as 65 on the scale. If he continues to perform, especially if the Giants send him right to Augusta and he hits his way to San Jose, then this time next year we’ll be talking about Marco Luciano as one of the best prospects in baseball, and if he does so while improving his infield defense, perhaps the best.

50 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SFG)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr R / R FV 50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
35/50 55/55 45/55 55/50 45/50 60/60

Ramos’ feel for opposite field contact developed out of necessity when his physical tools dipped in 2018. That turned out to be valuable when they returned last year, and half of his 16 homers were hit to the right of center field. Ramos’ bat head drags into the zone, which would cause most hitters to be late, but Ramos’ swing just scoops fly balls to right field, and his strength pushes them toward the heavens. Some of the strikeout issues (25% at Hi-A, 30% at Double-A) become less concerning when you remember Ramos was 19-years-old all year, but they become a bit troubling again when you realize he’s destined for a corner.

Built like a boulder stacked on two Iberico hams, Ramos is already slowing down, and he was an average runner in the Fall League. It’s not great if he is suddenly a corner guy with whiff/discipline issues, though his plate discipline was much more palatable last year. Retaining that will be important or we’re just talking about a Randal Grichuk sequel.

45+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from Arizona State (SFG)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 65/65 35/60 60/55 45/50 35/40

Bishop changed his college commitment late (he was originally going to play two sports at Washington), and headed to ASU. After struggling as an underclassman, he arrived for his junior season with a better body and quieter swing, and broke out. He sent many non-conference pitches rocketing into Phoenix’s midnight sky before he started seeing — and swinging over the top of — Pac-12 breaking balls. Whether this is fixable was the subject of many draft room debates, as was Bishop’s relatively short track record of performance.

Bishop has rare physical tools. He’s a plus runner and will post 70 run times to first on occasion, has solid feel for center field and huge, playable power. It’s unclear why his arm strength dipped last year when it was an asset earlier in his career, but it’s not a significant part of the skillset and we heard nothing odd about his pre-draft medical, so we’re looking the other way. He’ll be a top 100 prospect as soon as we’re more confident in the hit tool.

5. Luis Matos, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (SFG)
Age 17.8 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/50 50/60 20/50 60/60 45/50 50/50

International Director Joe Salermo and his staff have an eye for bat speed, as Matos is one of several youngsters with lightning-fast wood. He was a DSL All-Star before coming stateside for the homestretch of the AZL, and the Orange Giants dropped him right in the top of their playoff lineup. An outfield collision soon ended his season, though he left the field under his own power holding a towel to his face.

Matos isn’t a huge-framed outfielder but he projects for plus raw power at peak anyway, because of his ability to rotate. He also has plus speed and he was selectively aggressive during his brief AZL trial, taking big hacks in hitters counts rather than all the time. It’s possible he has underlying issues (breaking ball recognition, expansive approach, any number of things) that we just don’t know about yet because rookie-level pitching isn’t capable of shedding light on them. But just on tools, Matos belongs in the same general area as most of the top high schoolers from the 2019 draft, which puts him a shade beneath the tier of prospect who’ll be on our top 100 list this offseason.

45 FV Prospects

6. Logan Webb, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Rocklin HS (CA) (SFG)
Age 23.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 220 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 60/60 50/55 45/50 91-94 / 96

Webb’s career has been Chutes and Ladders for the last several years. He had Tommy John midway through 2016, and the little bit of 2017 for which he was healthy he spent in a strictly-regimented relief role. Finally back in a rotation the following year, Webb blew up. He was holding 92-95 deep into starts, topping out at 97, and spinning in a dastardly slider. Unrefined fastball control indicated relief risk at the time, but the injury and timing of Webb’s surgery robbed him of reps, so it was fair to project slightly better control.

Early in 2019, Webb was popped for PEDs and suspended for 80 games. Upon return, the fastball was down, more 91-94, and it settled there throughout 2019. But Webb’s changeup has improved and a clearly demarcated two-seamer will help it play. The command piece is still not always there, particularly early in games, but at other times Webb has arm-side feel for the change, glove-side feel for his slider, and and he’ll show east/west command of the heater. It’s No. 4/5 stuff, shaded on either side of the slash depending on how the command and changeup progress.

Drafted: 1st Round, 2019 from North Carolina State (LAA)
Age 21.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 184 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/50 30/45 50/50 45/50 50/50

Wilson was an Angel for half a year before he was tethered to Zack Cozart’s contract and traded to the Giants, a prospect burp to make budgetary room at the big league level. Wilson was not a traditional first round talent based on visual evalauations. He’s a relatively projectionless, medium-framed infielder without a clear plus tool, and he lacked the strikeout-to-walk ratios first round collegiate players usually exhibit. But, his hands work great in the box, his swing is as compact as his frame (making it possible for him to get on top of high fastballs), he tracks breaking balls very well, and he was very young for a college player, still just 20 on draft day. Some scouts on the amateur side wanted him to catch in pro ball and thought he had the toughness to do it. Others think he’ll be a fine 2B or 3B defender with a balanced, stable offensive profile. There is very likely limited ceiling here, probably something close to an average regular, but Wilson is also a fairly high probability contributor because of his bat-to-ball skills and defensive profile.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 19.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr L / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 60/65 25/60 40/30 40/45 55/55

More than any of the other teenagers on this list, Toribio is a fully formed physical entity, a brawny, heavy-footed thumper who looks like Aramis Ramirez did in his prime. That sort of physicality at this age creates risk that he’ll outgrow third base, and it’s very likely that, even if he stays there, he’ll only be passable at the position.

Toribio’s power and feel to hit — he has some head violence when he takes big cuts, but still generates a loud, heavy thwack when his swing is more controlled and precise — means he might profile at first base should he have to move. We don’t expect much more raw power to come because he is already so physically mature. We’re going to monitor his platoon splits over the next year because, to the eye, he’s much less adept at picking up lefty stuff, perhaps concerningly so, but there’s not nearly enough data to support that yet. If he stays at third and the bat-to-ball skills hold, he could be an above-average regular. The low-end of the potential outcomes is a platoon first baseman.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 19.6 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 165 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/45 55/60 25/60 50/45 40/50 60/60

Canario is still not a polished, skillful hitter — he has mediocre natural timing and feel to hit and his front side often leaks, which leaves him vulnerable against breaking balls away — so last summer’s batting average was higher than what we expect moving forward. But he does have ridiculous power and bat speed, which enables him to make impact, all-fields contact even when he mis-hits balls. This is a risky corner bat, but Canario has potential middle-of-the-order talent because of the raw power and a good chance to get to it in games because his swing has natural lift. There’s huge ceiling if the hit/approach component improves.

Drafted: 26th Round, 2013 from Capital Christian HS (CA) (BOS)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 0″ Weight 160 Bat / Thr R / R FV 45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/60 40/40 30/35 50/50 45/50 55/55

The first native Honduran to play in the majors, Dubon reached Double-A back in 2016. He seemed to be on the big league fast track when the Red Sox asked him to play center field that fall, but it took two trades and year of rehab from a torn ACL before he finally cracked a big league lineup. First sent from Boston (which signed him) to Milwaukee along with Travis Shaw as part of a lopsided package for Tyler Thornburg, Dubon was traded to San Francisco last summer in exchange for Drew Pomeranz.

Most of Dubon’s role is tied to his ability to make contact, a skill derived from strong hand-eye coordination and bat control. His formerly slender, willowy frame has filled out some, and in 2018 Dubon stopped scrubbing his leg kick with two strikes, but he’s still not getting much out of his lower half and his contact quality is entirely dependent on barrel accuracy, which will limit him to doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. Ideally, in a reserve role, he’d be able to play center field as well, but aside from the five games he played there in 2016, he’s only ever played the middle infield. His home-to-first times were down a bit last year coming off the ACL injury, so either the top-end speed he once had (we’ve had a 6 on Dubon’s wheels each of the last several years, until now) will return, or he’ll need to show immediate feel for center for him to see big league reps there. We have him in as a contact-oriented utility player.

40+ FV Prospects

11. Jaylin Davis, RF
Drafted: 24th Round, 2015 from Appalachian State (MIN)
Age 25.4 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
40/40 65/65 50/55 60/60 55/55 50/50

Davis began incorporating an open stance and bigger leg kick into his swing during the 2018 Arizona Fall League. That adjustment helped him improve his timing at the plate and create a bigger move forward, unlocking previously dormant power. He still has a bottom-hand heavy swing and flat bat path, and thus is unlikely to reach all that the power, but he might be a low-end regular anyway.

12. Seth Corry, LHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2017 from Lone Peak HS (UT) (SFG)
Age 21.1 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 195 Bat / Thr L / L FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 50/55 50/55 40/45 90-94 / 95

Corry was a pretty raw fastball/curveball high school prospect whose changeup improved throughout the last two seasons, which is especially relevant because that pitch’s movement pairs better with his fastball than the curve. Armed with that change, he dominated Low-A, striking out 172 hitters in 122 innings. He’s a fairly stiff, short strider and often has scattershot fastball control — he walked a batter every other inning last year — so there’s significant relief risk here. We’re not inclined to project on Corry’s control enough to consider him a starter, but we like him as a bat-missing, multi-inning reliever who ends up throwing 90 or so innings.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age 20.2 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 45/50 35/45 92-96 / 98

Two IL stints, including one for a shoulder injury, derailed what could have been a breakout year for Santos. As a teenager, he bullied hitters with his sinking, sometimes cutting, mid-90s fastball and nasty slider, but he arrived for 2019 camp with a much better changeup and looked like a potential mid-rotation arm during the spring. Then he was shut down because of the shoulder and wound up throwing only 34 innings all year. He’s officially behind on both the work load and command fronts, increasing the odds that he’s a reliever, and forcing us to shade down his FV due to the early-career injury stuff.

14. Sean Hjelle, RHP
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2018 from Kentucky (SFG)
Age 22.6 Height 6′ 11″ Weight 215 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 96

Hjelle body comps to a young Pau Gasol and he’s remarkably athletic for his size. His delivery is graceful and fluid, and he has no trouble repeating it nor fielding his position, as he’s quick off the mound to corral bunts and cover first base, both of which can be challenging for XXL pitchers. Hjelle’s (it’s pronounced like peanut butter and _____ ) fastball only sits in the low-90s but plays up because of extension, life, and the angle created by his height. Those traits in concert with one another make for a heater that competes for whiffs in the zone. The secondaries are closer to average, often below, though Hjelle can locate them. He’s a pretty safe No. 4/5 starter candidate, though we might be underrating how uncomfortable he is to hit against.

15. Melvin Adon, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2014 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 25.5 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
80/80 60/60 40/40 30/35 96-101 / 102

Adon is the hardest-throwing pitcher in the minors and, because he finally found some slider feel late in 2018, he struck out more than a batter per inning for the first time last year. He had been a raw, arm strength goon for what seemed like forever, and he remains concerningly wild; he may be better off dumping his slider in to get ahead of hitters and then chucking the fastball by them, rather than the other way around. Ultimately, he has late-inning, elite closer stuff but a fairly low chance of actualizing. We put a 45 FV on the top tier of pure, two-pitch relievers (most elite closers are failed starters) and Adon deserves that sort of consideration, but his track record of wildness and advanced age have him just shy of that.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Cuba (SFG)
Age 19.3 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/40 55/50 45/50 45/45

Pomares’ nutty triple slash line in the AZL is a caricature of his true ability, especially the power, but we were still pretty surprised when we sourced his exit velo data and found it was already above big league average. Pomares only makes impact contact to his pull side but he does have the ability to slash balls the other way. He punishes pitchers who try to double up on breaking balls against him, and he has several other hitterish traits. He’s not a speedster and has more of a tweener defensive profile, so he probably needs more game power to profile in a corner. Our visual evaluation is fairly demure, but you can frame discussion around Pomares in such a way that he’s considered a polished hitter with sneaky juice who also has a shot to play center field, which sounds great.

40 FV Prospects

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIN)
Age 19.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/60 45/50 45/55 35/45 92-96 / 98

Tilt Berroa’s cap another 15 degrees and he’s a dead on-mound ringer for Fernando Rodney, both physically and mechanically. Right now, he’s mostly a teenager with premium arm strength and somewhat inconsistent secondaries, both of which flash at least average. Both secondaries will likely depend on location to work, and Berroa doesn’t currently repeat consistently enough for that. But he has a chance to, which means he could end up with several bat-missing offerings and profile comfortably in a rotation. If only one secondary comes along, he’s still a good reliever.

18. Blake Rivera, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Wallace State JC (AL) (SFG)
Age 21.9 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 225 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
55/55 55/60 40/45 40/45 92-96 / 97

Rivera has an Emilio Pagan body and delivery comp, and he has natural proclivity for spin. His power stuff — 92-96 with cut action and a plus curveball — might tick up in single-inning stints, so while his command likely pushes him to the bullpen, he might be dominant there.

19. Kai-Wei Teng, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Taiwan (MIN)
Age 21.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 260 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
45/50 45/50 50/50 45/50 45/60 91-94 / 96

Teng was one of two players, along with Yunior Severino, who the Twins signed after voiding amateur shortstop Jelfy Marte’s $3 million deal due to vision issues. It didn’t take long for them to flip Teng to San Francisco as part of the package that netted Sam Dyson. He has a thick lower half and is a middling athlete, but he’s very well balanced over his blocking leg and otherwise has a smooth delivery that should not only enable him to throw enough strikes to remain a starter, but perhaps develop plus command, as well.

There’s already strong breaking ball utility here, the ability to vary shape based on location, and competitive, arm-side changeup feel, too. Teng’s frame is maxed out, so he probably won’t add velo, but that’s still a No. 4/5 skillset.

20. Camilo Doval, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 22.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
60/60 45/50 60/70 20/35 93-98 / 99

Doval is one of the weirder pitchers in all of the minors, as his delivery and stuff are each as odd as they are inconsistent. When he’s right, the long-armed, side-winding right-hander chucks upper-90s stuff with either heavy sink, or rising cut action caused by his arm angle. He also throws a hard, horizontal slider. The Trackman readout for Doval is shocking. His primary fastball/cutter spins in at about 2700 rpm, which is incredible considering how hard he throws. He also generates nearly seven feet of extension, and the effective velocity of his fastball is about 2 mph harder than its actual velo. There are outings where he’s untouchable for several innings. He also has nuclear outings where he walks everyone and gives up a bunch of runs before registering an out.

We’re dying to capture Doval on the high speed camera and see how the hell this works and what could be done to improve his consistency. We’re not even all that confident that he’ll figure it out, but we’re bewitched by his stuff and think he has a chance to be an elite bullpen weapon if he ever does.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (SFG)
Age 20.5 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 55/60 30/45 20/20 45/50 60/60

Genoves is Rule 5 eligible but probably too undercooked to be selected. Built like one of the Moai sculptures on Easter Island, Genoves may not have the mobility to catch long term. But he has a plus arm, he’s procedurally advanced for a 20-year-old, and he has the leadership qualities and intangibles that have an outsized impact at catcher. Plus, some of his mobility issues might soon be rendered moot by the existence of electronic strike zones. He also has plus power, enough to put balls out to right center, though Genoves’ current pull-happy approach doesn’t facilitate many homers out there.

This is a somewhat speculative ranking based on what the future of the position may hold. On tools Genoves has a shot to be a regular, though a backup role is probably more likely.

22. P.J. Hilson, CF
Drafted: 6th Round, 2018 from Nettleton HS (AR) (SFG)
Age 19.3 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/35 50/55 25/45 70/70 45/55 70/70

The gap between what Hilson is now and what he might be is perhaps the widest in pro baseball, a yawning chasm that the Giants player development staff will try to close. A complete lack of bat control undermines his scintillating physical ability, and his grooved swing leads to a lot of whiffs on pitches in the zone. Hilson’s chances of becoming a big leaguer are fairly low, but because of his physical talent, he also has a chance to be a David Dahl sort of player if he develops even a 40 hit tool.

Drafted: 6th Round, 2019 from Leadership Christian HS (PR) (SFG)
Age 18.4 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/40 50/55 25/50 60/55 40/50 40/50

Rosario had defensive issues (both hands and arm accuracy, perhaps as a result of him needing to rush after booting balls) throughout the summer after he signed and his future position is unclear. He does have serious pop, though, and even if the defensive problems linger there’s a shot Rosario hits for enough power to profile anywhere.

24. Aeverson Arteaga, SS
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Venezuela (SFG)
Age 16.7 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 170 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 30/45 20/40 60/55 45/60 55/60

The timing of Arteaga’s deal, combined with scouts’ general reticence to work in Venezuela, made him tough to evaluate ahead of signing day. He’s been a bit more visible since then, and the carrying tool is going to be the glove. Arteaga’s range, footwork, actions, and athleticism are all terrific. He doesn’t have a clear path to an impact bat based on what teams have seen so far, but his frame is projectable. He may be stateside in January.

25. Tristan Beck, RHP
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Stanford (ATL)
Age 23.4 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/55 55/60 45/50 40/45 89-94 / 95

Beck has a dandy 12-6 curveball and he was throwing quite a bit harder in the AFL than he was when Eric saw him right after Atlanta traded him to San Francisco. Those two pitches suggest a big league bullpen/No. 5 starter.

26. Jake Wong, RHP
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Grand Canyon (SFG)
Age 23.2 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 210 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
50/50 45/50 45/50 45/55 91-94 / 96

Wong was holding 93-96 with sink deep into games as a junior at Grand Canyon and his strike-throwing ability carried over to pro ball. Even though he doesn’t spin the ball exceptionally well, he does create some life on his heater and his changeup has improved a bit already. He projects as a No. 5 starter or inning-eating bulk reliever.

27. Kean Wong, 2B
Drafted: 4th Round, 2013 from Waiakea HS (HI) (TBR)
Age 24.6 Height 5′ 11″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr L / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
50/50 35/35 30/30 50/50 50/50 50/50

Wong was kept at Triple-A for the third straight year and posted his second consecutive season with an above-average statline. He’s bounced around waivers, a 40-man casualty of Tampa Bay and the Angels before landing in San Francisco. His versatility, speed, and above-average contact ability from the left side fit like a glove in a bench role.

28. Jose Siri, CF
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2012 from Dominican Republic (CIN)
Age 24.6 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/35 55/55 45/50 60/60 45/50 60/60

The enigmatic Siri has premium physical ability but lacks any kind of plan at the plate, and it’s undercut his offensive performance for much of his career. He’s a volatile talent and person who has begun to be passed around on the waiver wire. The right clubhouse and opportunity to play might enable him to be a real everyday player. He has that kind of power, speed and natural feel for hitting the ball in the air, but it’s not a great sign when teams are still waiting for a 25-year-old to mature as a ballplayer.

29. Dany Jimenez, RHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (TOR)
Age 24.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 190 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
60/60 60/60 40/40 93-96 / 97

Jimenez was picked by San Francisco in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft. Like Ramirez, Jimenez also signed late, agreeing to his first pro contract just before he turned 22. He also missed most of 2017 due to injury, and those sorts of factors combined to limit him to just 33 innings above A-ball even though he is about to turn 26. He sits 93-95, touches 97, the heater spins at about 2450 rpm, and Jimenez’s vertical arm slot makes it hard for hitters to discern the fastball and his power breaking ball from one another. I think he’s pretty likely to stick in a relief role.

35+ FV Prospects

Drafted: 11th Round, 2019 from George County HS (MS) (SFG)
Age 18.7 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 180 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Command Sits/Tops
40/50 45/55 35/50 90-94 / 96

McDonald was a pop-up prep arm from rural Mississippi, almost smack in the middle of the triangle created by the highways that connect Biloxi, Hattiesburg, and Mobile. Every team saw him up to 96 with a good, two-plane breaking ball but had very different projections on how the stuff and body would mature. Those who like him thought his feel for spin could be parlayed into multiple weapons, while others saw a likely reliever with just fair physical projection.

31. Grant McCray, CF
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from Lakewood Ranch HS (FL) (SFG)
Age 19.0 Height 6′ 1″ Weight 175 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
25/55 45/50 20/40 60/60 45/50 50/55

McCray still has work to do from a stride length and swing timing perspective, but he got much stronger in the last year, and did so while retaining his plus speed. Perhaps most surprisingly, he tracked pitches very well over his pro debut and he has promising feel for contact. Again though, the swing needs refinement for the physical tools to actualize.

32. Esmerlin Vinicio, LHP
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2019 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 16.8 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 155 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
20/50 40/55 50/60 35/55 83-85 / 86

You need to dream to see Vinicio as a future big leaguer but he gives you plenty of reasons to hope. He is athletic and well-made, graceful, balanced, and loose. His curveball has shape but not power, something that will need to come as his body matures, just like his velocity generally. In his changeup, Vinicio has an out pitch, something that will entice swings and misses as soon as he steps on a pro field.

33. Logan Wyatt, 1B
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2019 from Louisville (SFG)
Age 22.0 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 217 Bat / Thr L / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 50/55 35/50 30/30 45/50 45/45

Advanced plate discipline and enough hitting tools (big strength and a low load that creates lift) made Wyatt attractive in the draft, but he’s a maxed-out first base-only prospect with 50 raw power.

Signed: July 2nd Period, 2011 from Dominican Republic (SFG)
Age 24.0 Height 6′ 2″ Weight 235 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Curveball Changeup Command Sits/Tops
60/60 55/55 50/50 30/30 94-97 / 98

After missing long stretches with injuries over the last several years, the Giants moved Vizcaino to the bullpen in 2019 and he dominated Hi-A for a month before settling in at the upper levels, where he was just okay. He has no-doubt, big league middle relief stuff but he’s is a 30 athlete with 30 control, so everything plays down because too many pitches end up in non-competitive locations.

Drafted: 4th Round, 2019 from Louisville (SFG)
Age 22.2 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 185 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/45 45/50 30/40 55/50 45/50 55/55

FItzgerald has everyday tools and he was a big name in high school, but apart from some spurts, he never quite performed up to his physical potential at Louisville. He has a solid shot to stick at shortstop and develop at least average power, especially if San Francisco can help him better incorporate his lower half into his swing.

Drafted: 5th Round, 2019 from Cathedral Catholic HS (CA) (SFG)
Age 18.9 Height 6′ 3″ Weight 200 Bat / Thr L / L FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
20/50 50/60 20/55 30/30 40/55 50/55

Marred by multiple injuries and a serious illness during his senior year of high school, Frechette went from intriguing power projection prospect to relative afterthought during his predraft spring. Once he signed and got going in the AZL, some of the explosion that made him interesting the summer before had returned. He’s athletic enough to give it a try in a corner outfield spot, and for now, we like his frame and present raw power more than some of the guys drafted ahead of him.

Drafted: 17th Round, 2019 from UC Riverside (SFG)
Age 21.5 Height 6′ 5″ Weight 240 Bat / Thr R / R FV 35+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/40 80/80 35/60 20/20 40/45 55/55

Cannon has serious juice, legitimate 80-grade raw power. He’s enormous and has mobility issues created by his size and exacerbated by multiple knee surgeries. There’s extreme risk here due to the R/R first base profile and the medical, which goes beyond the knee stuff, but he has to be on here because of how loud the power is.

Other Prospects of Note

Grouped by type and listed in order of preference within each category.

They Might Be Giants
Joe McCarthy, OF/1B
Sam Wolff, RHP
Abiatal Avelino, INF
Chris Shaw, 1B
Rico Garcia, RHP
Rodolfo Martinez, RHP
Jose Marte, RHP
Carlos Sano, RHP

This group is full of Quad-A types who might get an opportunity to prove something in the big leagues next year considering where the Giants are in their rebuild. Most of these guys are in their mid-20s. We liked McCarthy as a high-OBP corner platoon guy for the last several years, but he had yet another back issue in 2019 and needs to prove he can stay healthy now. The same goes for Wolff, who has 40 FV stuff but a long injury history. You could argue Avelino belongs where Kean Wong is on the main section of the list, but give us the lefty bat. Shaw has huge power but we don’t think he’ll hit. Eric has seen Garcia sit 93-96 for spurts, with about average secondaries. He was claimed off waivers. Martinez is one of several hard-throwing arms in the system who have had injury or consistency issues. Rodolfo will show you 91-97 and touch 100, a wider range than usual. Marte also throws hard, up to 99, but it doesn’t play like an elite fastball. Sano was hurt most of last year. He’s up to 96 with plus vertical movement. One of these arms should end up sticking.

Body Beautiful with Power
Carter Aldrete, RF
George Bell Jr., LF
Jacob Heyward, RF
Jacob Gonzalez, 1B
Armani Smith, OF

All of these guys have big raw, but play a corner and don’t have the hit tool to be on the main section of the list. Aldrete was an infielder as an underclassman at ASU but moved to the outfield as a junior. Bell was on last year’s list but didn’t take a step forward. Heyward has performed at every level and he walks a ton, but he’s always been quite old for the level. Scouts love Gonzalez’s makeup, but he hit for shockingly little power this year and still projects as a first baseman rather than his current third. Smith, like Bell last year, hit during his first pro summer and he looks the part in the uniform, so we’re monitoring him.

Two Long-Term Projects
Victor Bericoto, 1B
Anthony Rodriguez, SS

Bericoto was promoted from the DSL late in the summer, along with Luis Matos. He’s an advanced hitter but first base is a tough profile and Bericoto’s tools don’t pop. Rodriguez is another 2019 J2 signee, inked for $800,000 out of Venezuela. He’s a projectable switch-hitter with some twitch and bat speed, but the swing is pretty rough.

Sneaky Sneaky
Matt Frisbee, RHP
Kervin Castro, RHP
Luis Amaya, LHP
Izzy Munguia, OF
Jesus Tona, RHP

Frisbee has carved the lower levels with 90-94, plus vertical movement, and plus slider command. He’s 23. If he does it at Double-A next year, he’ll be a 40 FV. Castro is up to 95, he backspins his fastball, and flashes a plus changeup. He’s 20, but is built like a catcher. Speaking of catchers, there’s a full Tona writeup here. Amaya also has a sneaky fastball. It’s only about 91-92 but he hides the ball well and it sneaks past hitters. His 11-to-5 curveball is average. Munguia is tiny but he plays his ass off and puts the bat on the ball at an abnormal rate.

System Overview

We still have much to learn about how the talent acquisition under new Baseball Ops President Farhan Zaidi will go. Not only can we look back at his time with Oakland and the Dodgers for clues, but we can do the same for the relatively new heads of the pro and amateur staffs, as well as fresh-faced General Manager Scott Harris.

Harris has roots in the Commissioner’s office and, more recently, with the Cubs, where he earned his MBA at Northwestern while simultaneously serving as the team’s baseball ops director. He’ll probably be less involved in what we’re interested in than amateur director Michael Holmes, who comes from Oakland, and pro director Zack Minasian, who comes from Milwaukee.

Oakland targeted toolsy, high-upside athletes early in drafts while focusing on college performers on Day Two. Those college performers, some of whom typically came in under slot, enabled Oakland to scoop up an over-slot high schooler or two on Day Two or early on Day Three. The Giants took this exact approach last year, saving about $1 million early on, then spreading that to a few high schoolers as the draft progressed. They pick 13th next year in a draft that’s currently seen as quite deep, so this strategy might yield more talent than normal.

Minasian was with Milwaukee for nearly half of our lifetimes, and over that span, several regimes came and went. Under former Astros Assistant GM David Stearns, the Brewers began to axe scouts this year, after Minasian left. Whether he is bringing that approach with him to San Francisco, we don’t know. The Milwaukee rebuild that yielded most of the current pitching staff and the pieces that were sent to Miami for Christian Yelich were mostly collected by departments helmed by Minasian and Rey Montgomery. Lewis Brinson, Isan Díaz, Josh Hader, Luis Ortiz, Brett Phillips, Zach Davies and Freddy Peralta were all picked up during this stretch. That’s pretty tools-centric on the hitters’ side, and deals often included multiple players sent back to Milwaukee. Last year’s trade deadline adds in San Francisco (Davis/Teng/Berroa, Dubon) have a similar feel.

Let’s see which Quad-A hitters (Tyler Austin, Connor Joe, Jaylin Davis, Aaron Altherr, etc.) end up sticking; the club is cycling through a ton. We’ve thrown our dart at Davis.


Job Posting: Oakland Athletics Junior Analyst

Position: Junior Analyst

Department: Baseball Operations
Job Classification: Non-exempt
City/State: Oakland, CA

Description:
The Oakland Athletics are currently seeking a full-time Junior Analyst in the Baseball Operations R&D department. The Junior Analyst will have responsibilities that include performing statistical analysis and reporting, as well as in assisting in the creation of new analytical research and modeling to support Baseball Operations. They will also provide support and analysis for various tracking technologies. This position will work with members of the front office to provide analysis for the decision making process. This position will be located in Oakland, CA.

Responsibilities:

  • Produce statistical analysis and reporting for the front office and coaching staff.
  • Conduct research projects for various departments within Baseball Operations.
  • Collaborate with the research and development team on statistical modeling techniques and projects.
  • Assist with the capture and analysis of ball and player tracking technologies.
  • Assist the staff with ad-hoc analysis and reporting.
  • Other duties as assigned.

Qualifications/Requirements:

  • Undergraduate degree in math, computer science, economics, statistics or related quantitative field
  • Strong proficiency in SQL and R is required, Python experience preferred.
  • Experience in Microsoft Excel is a plus.
  • Strong organizational skills and attention to detail.
  • Self-starter with an ability to handle multiple tasks and responsibilities.
  • Excellent communication skills including written and verbal; ability to present ideas clearly and concisely.
  • Ability to work extended hours/weekends and travel as needed.
  • Must be able to work in a fast-paced environment.

To Apply:
To apply, please complete the application, which can be found here.

The Oakland A’s are an equal opportunity employer and all qualified applicants will receive consideration for employment without regard to race, color, religion, sex, national origin, disability status, protected veteran status, or any other characteristic protected by law.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Oakland Athletics.


Braves Say Yes to Travis d’Arnaud

Last season, the Atlanta Braves platooned Brian McCann and Tyler Flowers behind the plate. Neither player was great, but the pair produced more than three wins, which put them in the top 10 for team catching totals. Atlanta had already re-upped Flowers with a one-year deal, but with McCann’s retirement, the club needed a replacement for his half of the duo. Enter Travis d’Arnaud, who agreed to a two-year deal worth $16 million, as first reported by ESPN’s Jeff Passan.

The McCann/Flowers combo worked well because the lefty McCann and the righty Flowers could platoon. That won’t be the case next year, as d’Arnaud bats right-handed as well. It should, however, provide more flexibility regarding rest and pitching matchups. Both players hit lefties well and are usable against righties, which means that manager Brian Snitker can decide who plays based on the best matchup with his own pitchers.

Flowers is one of the best framing catchers in baseball. Since 2015, his 77 runs above average are second only to Yasmani Grandal’s 100, though Flowers has 1,300 fewer innings.

But Flowers isn’t necessarily a guy you want to play 140 times. He’ll be 34 years old next year, he’s a poor thrower, and he doesn’t have much of a stick: After a hot April last year, he put up a 73 wRC+ the rest of the way. While the Braves were happy to bring Flowers back at a low salary, they needed another competent catcher to replace McCann.

d’Arnaud fills that void, and at a pretty fair price given his blend of experience and upside. On our Top 50 Free Agents list, Kiley McDaniel projected d’Arnaud would get two years and $14 million. Ben Clemens had this to say about him:

What you think of Travis d’Arnaud’s free agency is entirely a matter of perspective. Is he the player who the Mets released in May? Is he the cleanup hitter for a playoff team? Both are true, but neither paints a complete picture. It goes beyond this year, too: is he the former top prospect who compiled 6.2 WAR in roughly 700 PA in 2014 and 2015, or the injury-prone journeyman who totaled 2.4 WAR in a similar amount of time over the next three seasons, losing his job to a carousel of middling backstops in the process? Again, the truth lies somewhere between these two extremes. Put it all together, and d’Arnaud projects as a roughly average player, and average catchers entering their age 31 seasons aren’t typically in high demand. There’s still a whiff of pedigree to him, however, even after his inconsistent career thus far, and plenty of playoff hopefuls could use an average catcher, which means d’Arnaud will likely have his pick of destinations on a small-ish contract.

That d’Arnaud was able to beat the estimates is a testament to a thin catching market. Per our Free Agent Tracker, these were the top talents available this winter:

Free Agent Catchers
Name Bats Age Prev WAR Proj WAR
Yasmani Grandal S 31 5.2 4.9
Jason Castro L 33 1.6 1.7
Tyler Flowers R 34 2.1 1.5
Travis d’Arnaud R 31 1.6 1.5
Alex Avila L 33 1.3 1.4
Yan Gomes R 32 0.8 1.2
Martín Maldonado R 33 0.8 1.2
Russell Martin R 37 1.2 0.9
Francisco Cervelli R 34 0.1 0.8
Robinson Chirinos R 36 2.3 0.7

There weren’t too many full-time starters available. Jason Castro might have been a fit, given his lefty bat and decent projection, but d’Arnaud had more plate appearances last season than Castro the last two years combined. Add in the age difference between d’Arnaud and Castro, and it’s clear why the righty was a compelling option.

While Flowers’ season might have been cause for some concern with the Braves, d’Arnaud played well once he arrived in Tampa Bay. The graph below shows his 100-game rolling wRC+ over the last four seasons:

While d’Arnaud’s numbers in recent seasons don’t leap off the page, he was quite good at the plate in Tampa. Even with an underwhelming 67 wRC+ in September, d’Arnaud posted a 107 wRC+ with Tampa Bay across 92 games and 365 plate appearances, and his contact quality was even better than that. Because he didn’t make it to the Rays until the second week in May, d’Arnaud actually carried a pretty significant workload, playing roughly three-quarters of the time. With Flowers in the fold and no need to play first or designated hitter, d’Arnaud should get a bit more rest and perhaps see some improvement in his numbers.

d’Arnaud framing metrics were pretty good last year, though not as stellar as his early career figures in New York, when he was 41 runs above average. He missed nearly all the 2018 season due to Tommy John surgery, and it is difficult to tell if the decline in framing production stems from recovery, aging, or just random fluctuation. In any case, if d’Arnaud is a league average bat or his framing numbers rebound at all, this contract will be a bargain for Atlanta.

The Braves are off to a strong start this winter. They’ve solved their catching problem early on with Flowers and d’Arnaud and revamped their bullpen with the signings of Chris Martin and Will Smith.

They shouldn’t stop there. The team has yet to replace Josh Donaldson or his production at third base, they still need a starting outfielder and to push Nick Markakis to a part-time role. The Braves also need to augment their rotation. While Mike Soroka, Mike Foltynewicz, and Max Fried are decent options and Sean Newcomb, Bryse Wilson, Kyle Wright, and Touki Touissant provide depth, the club needs to replace the quality innings thrown by Dallas Keuchel and Julio Teherán. The Braves have decisively patched up the small holes on their squad: Now they must address the bigger issues.


Celebrating Jacoby Ellsbury

Last Wednesday, the New York Yankees released Jacoby Ellsbury, cutting ties with the oft-injured outfielder even though he still had a year and more than $26 million left on his long-term deal. The Yankees are trying to worm their way out of that commitment, on the somewhat dubious premise that he received treatment from an unapproved physician, so the drama isn’t quite over yet. Either way though, he’s played his last game in New York. Along with Greg Bird and Nester Cortes Jr., Ellsbury was released in order to clear roster space for younger prospects.

By any measure, Ellsbury’s time in the Bronx was a disappointment. He played 120 games only twice, topped the three-win mark just once, and started four playoff games during his tenure. His first season was promising: He took advantage of Yankee Stadium’s short porch in right and parked 16 homers, the second-highest total of his career, en route to a 3.6 WAR season. But injuries and age soon caught up with him. While he retained most his speed and wits on the bases, starting in 2015, his production at the plate dipped noticeably. After falling out of the lineup in 2017, Ellsbury missed the entire 2018 season recovering from an oblique strain and a torn labrum in his hip, and then all of last year while batting plantar fasciitis. He was not expected to contribute significantly to the 2020 Yankees had he remained part of the roster.

In the wake of his release, there have been a few pieces speculating about where Ellsbury ranks on New York’s list of biggest free agent busts. That’s as unfair as it is uncharitable for a player who was pretty good in pinstripes before injuries kept him away from the field.

More to the point, there’s far more about Ellsbury’s career to celebrate than to lament. At his best, he was a breathtaking center fielder and one of the most exciting baserunners in recent memory. His 343 career steals are the seventh-most of any player this century, an impressive total even without considering that he stole successfully more than 82% of the time. He was a big part of two World Series winners and his out-of-nowhere power spike in 2011 fueled one of the best individual seasons of the decade. He stole home not once but twice, and set a major league record by reaching base 30 times on catcher’s interference. He was good, he was fun, and if this is the end for Ellsbury, we’re lucky to have seen him play. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2020 Hall of Fame Ballot: Scott Rolen

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2020 Hall of Fame ballot. Originally written for the 2018 election at SI.com, it has been updated to reflect recent voting results as well as additional research. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

“A hard-charging third baseman” who “could have played shortstop with more range than Cal Ripken.” “A no-nonsense star.” “The perfect baseball player.” Scott Rolen did not lack for praise, particularly in the pages of Sports Illustrated at the height of his career. A masterful, athletic defender with the physical dimensions of a tight end (listed at 6-foot-4, 245 pounds), Rolen played with an all-out intensity, sacrificing his body in the name of stopping balls from getting through the left side of the infield. Many viewed him as the position’s best for his time, and he more than held his own with the bat as well, routinely accompanying his 25 to 30 homers a year with strong on-base percentages.

There was much to love about Rolen’s game, but particularly in Philadelphia, the city where he began his major league career and the one with a reputation for fraternal fondness, he found no shortage of critics — even in the Phillies organization. Despite winning 1997 NL Rookie of the Year honors and emerging as a foundation-type player, Rolen was blasted publicly by manager Larry Bowa and special assistant to the general manager Dallas Green. While ownership pinched pennies and waited for a new ballpark, fans booed and vilified him. Eventually, Rolen couldn’t wait to skip town, even when offered a deal that could have been worth as much as $140 million. Traded in mid-2002 to the Cardinals, he referred to St. Louis as “baseball heaven,” which only further enraged the Philly faithful.

In St. Louis, Rolen provided the missing piece of the puzzle, helping a team that hadn’t been to the World Series since 1987 make two trips in three years (2004 and ’06), with a championship in the latter year. A private, introverted person who shunned endorsement deals, he didn’t have to shoulder the burden of being a franchise savior, but as the toll of his max-effort play caught up to him in the form of chronic shoulder and back woes, he clashed with manager Tony La Russa and again found himself looking for the exit. After a brief detour to Toronto, he landed in Cincinnati, where again he provided the missing piece, helping the Reds return to the postseason for the first time in 15 years. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Diamondbacks Short Season Hitting Coordinator

Position: Short Season Hitting Coordinator

Department:Baseball Operations
Status: Regular Full-Time
Location: Scottsdale, Arizona

Position Summary:
The Arizona Diamondbacks are seeking a Short Season Hitting Coordinator who will work closely with the Minor League Hitting Coordinator and oversee coordinating and developing players at their Dominican Academy, Short-Season clubs, Arizona operations (including spring training), extended spring, Arizona League and Instructional League as well as special assignments. The ideal candidate will use analytical data and technology to create plans for players to maximize their development and will collaborate with players, staff and the front office. Spanish speaking is required for this role, as well as the flexibility to be on the road for weeks at a time, including international travel.

Duties & Responsibilities:

  • An understanding of hitting technology and how it can be implemented
  • Communicating hitting technologies including video and wearable technology with Spanish speaking players and staff
  • Working with hitters in one-on-one environments
  • Working with short season hitting coaches to implement philosophy
  • Incorporating analytics as it relates to hitting
  • Effectively communicating technical and analytical concepts to non-technical people
  • Ability to carry out and create a hitting plan for players in conjunction with the Hitting Coordinator
  • Ability to multitask and balance multiple projects at once
  • Working and collaborating with players, staff and the front office
  • Independently evaluate professional and amateur baseball players
  • Flexibility to travel internationally and be on the road for weeks at a time
  • Carry oneself in a respectful manner that positively represents the organization

Skills:

  • Fluency in Spanish is required
  • The ability to effectively communicate with and relate to people who have varying backgrounds and experiences working in and playing baseball, respecting and empathizing with both the human and analytical perspectives of the game
  • Intellectual curiosity and creativity
  • Experience working with Blast, K-Vest, force plates, slow motion video and Rapsodo
  • Technical knowledge pertaining to statistical analysis
  • Proficiency in Microsoft Office
  • Strong organizational and time management skills
  • Strong work ethic and attention to detail

To Apply:
Interested candidates should send a resume and supporting materials to bbopsjob@dbacks.com.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Arizona Diamondbacks.