Over in the American League, there’s a pretty clear top tier of Cy Young contenders in Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole, followed by a solid group of candidates likely to garner down-ballot support. In the National League, there looks to be a top tier of Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom followed by a cascading set of secondary candidates, but that first look doesn’t quite tell the entire story.
To provide some idea of the statistical disparities voters must contend with when making their decision, I looked at our FIP-based WAR as well as the RA9-WAR also available here at FanGraphs, Baseball-Reference’s WAR, and Baseball Prospectus’ WARP. I included for consideration any player in the top five of any of those lists. That search returned nine pitchers for the potential five slots on a Cy Young ballot. Those players are listed below, with a mix of traditional and advanced statistics:
NL Cy Young Candidates
|
Max Scherzer |
Jacob deGrom |
Stephen Strasburg |
Walker Buehler |
Patrick Corbin |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
Sonny Gray |
Mike Soroka |
Jack Flaherty |
IP |
166.1 |
190 |
196 |
171.1 |
191.2 |
168.2 |
170.1 |
169.2 |
182.1 |
K% |
34.8% |
31.6% |
29.6% |
28.4% |
28.4% |
22.1% |
28.9% |
19.9% |
29.5% |
BB% |
4.8% |
5.7% |
6.7% |
4.4% |
8.1% |
3.6% |
9.6% |
5.7% |
7.2% |
HR/9 |
0.87 |
0.90 |
1.06 |
0.95 |
0.99 |
0.80 |
0.85 |
0.69 |
1.23 |
BABIP |
.323 |
.288 |
.277 |
.291 |
.290 |
.279 |
.258 |
.274 |
.250 |
ERA |
2.81 |
2.61 |
3.49 |
3.15 |
3.10 |
2.35 |
2.80 |
2.60 |
2.96 |
ERA- |
62 |
63 |
77 |
75 |
69 |
56 |
62 |
58 |
69 |
FIP |
2.36 |
2.79 |
3.29 |
2.87 |
3.35 |
3.11 |
3.38 |
3.43 |
3.62 |
FIP- |
52 |
64 |
72 |
65 |
74 |
71 |
74 |
78 |
83 |
WAR |
6.5 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
5.0 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4.0 |
4.1 |
Blue=1st, Orange=2nd, Red=3rd
We have Scherzer and deGrom in first and second by about a win over the next-best candidate, with deGrom pitching tonight. After those two, we have a lot of innings from Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, and fewer innings, but better peripherals, from Walker Buehler. After those three, we have four candidates who haven’t thrown a ton of innings, but all have much lower ERA’s than FIPs. As for how these candidates came to be considered, here are their WAR totals:
NL Cy Young Candidates’ WAR
|
Max Scherzer |
Jacob deGrom |
Stephen Strasburg |
Walker Buehler |
Patrick Corbin |
Hyun-Jin Ryu |
Sonny Gray |
Mike Soroka |
Jack Flaherty |
WAR |
6.5 |
6.2 |
5.3 |
5 |
4.9 |
4.4 |
4.3 |
4 |
4.1 |
RA/9 WAR |
6 |
6.6 |
5.6 |
3.8 |
5.6 |
6.1 |
6 |
6.1 |
6.0 |
BRef |
6 |
6.3 |
5.7 |
2.1 |
5.9 |
4.5 |
5.7 |
5.7 |
4.9 |
BPro* |
6.0 |
7.2 |
7.8 |
5.4 |
5.6 |
5.0 |
5.2 |
4.7 |
6.2 |
wAVG |
6.2 |
6.6 |
6.3 |
4.5 |
5.4 |
4.9 |
5.1 |
4.9 |
5.3 |
Blue=1st, Orange=2nd, Red=3rd
wAVG takes WAR plus the average of RA9-WAR and BRef WAR plus BPro and divides the total by three.
*Baseball Prospectus was updated late Friday to include Thursday starts for Flaherty and Soroka and those numbers have since been updated here.
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