Archive for Teams

Justin Turner is one of the massively successful swing-change guys, which helps to explain why he didn’t have his offensive breakout until he was 29. Some players know what they’re supposed to do, and they keep trying to do it until they figure it out. Turner knew what he was supposed to do, but he didn’t know the right way to do it. Then he changed his entire batting foundation, and the big-league success followed. Plenty of players now have tried to change their swings. Few have managed what Turner has.

Even with many of the successful swing-changers, there was a problem hidden among the benefits. It was a common problem they shared with other fly-ball hitters. These were hitters geared to punish pitches down in the zone, so there was an area to exploit up top. It wasn’t the same for everyone, of course, but it’s something that could be frequently observed. Turner himself did the bulk of his damage below the thigh. Higher than that, he had some issues, but I guess most hitters have some kind of issue somewhere. Nobody’s perfect.

And yet! Turner’s seemingly gotten one step closer. I’ve held onto this theory that pitchers will ultimately have control over the swing-changers, because they can just throw more high fastballs. But, what if the hitters figured out how to adjust? Justin Turner has figured it out. Justin Turner is doing damage everywhere.

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The Blue Jays are not where they want to be in the standings. That much has to be acknowledged. While it’s long been understood that the American League East was again going to be a challenging division, the Jays have still been a disappointment, and it’s an open question whether the front office might elect to start selling in advance of this month’s trade deadline. The train has gone off the rails, and while the rails are just right there, within reach, it’s no simple matter for any train to reattach. You know how trains are.

And as long as we’re saying things up front, this is an article about Jays closer Roberto Osuna, and not even very long ago Osuna was in the news because he had to miss a few games, owing to rather severe anxiety. Anxiety is a sinister thing, and a personal thing, and it’s not a villain you conquer with a good night’s sleep. Possibly, it will march alongside Osuna for the rest of his life. Probably, it will linger for at least another few years. It’s just one of the things he’ll have to deal with, like someone else might deal with a wonky knee.

So it hasn’t been all rainbows for Osuna, nor has it been puppy dogs for the baseball team around him. But this much can be said: When Osuna has taken the mound in 2017, he’s been absolutely sensational. Osuna was already a perfectly fine closer. What he is now is something else, something very nearly perfect, at least by human standards. Osuna’s only 22, and he’s pitching at the top of his magnificent game.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Wes Rogers, OF, Colorado (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 23   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 2-for-4, HR, BB

Notes
Rogers’ draft stock spiked during the 2014 JUCO World Series, during which he hit .538. He went straight from Grand Junction — where the JUCO World Series is held and where the Rockies’ Pioneer League affiliate plays their home games — to Scottsdale to workout with Colorado. He ran a plus-plus 60-yard dash there and the Rockies drafted him in the fourth round. He’s having a bit of a breakout year, albeit as an old-for-level prospect repeating the Cal League. But Rogers runs very well, has above-average bat speed, and exhibits terrific command of the strike zone. He’s also been an efficient and prolific base-stealer, lifting 159 career bases in 324 games at an 88% success rate. He’s also a long-limbed, small-school prospect, both late-blooming traits. Some of his power is probably fueled by Lancaster’s hitting environment, but there are big-leagues tools here, too.

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“[Jose Ramirez] is an All-Star baseman. If I were to have told you that four years ago, you’d have been scratching your head, ‘Wait. The guy who is playing second base and is known for his defense? He’s an All-Star third baseman?’”

Those words were spoken by Cleveland Indians team president Chris Antonetti, who went on to say that “development isn’t always a linear process; it’s difficult to predict where guys are going to end up.”

That’s certainly true for Ramirez, who will start at the hot corner for the American League in tonight’s midsummer classic. As Antonetti alluded to, the expectations for the Dominican native were quite different just a handful of years ago. The 2013 Baseball America Prospect Handbook opined that Ramirez has “little power and limited physical projection,” and that he “lacks a high ceiling.”

Feel free to put that scouting report in the shredder, because the 5-foot-9 Ramirez’s ceiling currently resembles that of the Sistine Chapel. The 24-year-old infielder heads into the break with a .332/.388/.601 slash line, and — drum roll, please — an eye-opening 17 home runs. Ramirez has, quite simply, developed into a star.

He isn’t exactly verbose when it comes to talking about his emergence as an offensive force. At least that was the case when I spoke to him — with the assistance of Indians translator extraordinaire Anna Bolton — prior to a recent game. But while Ramirez wasn’t particularly forthcoming, he did share a few a noteworthy nuggets.

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Logically, all of the following is true. We accept that human beings are in charge of calling the strike zone. They try their best to tell the difference between strikes and balls, but you can usually understand if they call a strike on a pitch that missed by an inch. How much is an inch? When’s the last time you tried to do what they do a few hundred times every game? The ball moves incredibly fast, and as an umpire, you never know where it’s going to go, or how it’s going to spin. Anyway, we can be forgiving with an inch. And if we can accept a miss of one inch, it follows that we should accept a miss of two inches. All that is is one more inch, and we already gave them the first inch.

If we can accept a miss of two inches, we can accept a miss of three inches. If three inches, then four inches. If four inches, then five, and if five, then six. On and on it goes, in single-inch increments, and it does all make a certain amount of sense. Humans are great, but humans are flawed, and any human-called strike zone is going to have a gray area.

But, nine inches? Imagine nine inches. You don’t even have to be precisely correct. Your imagination is enough. We know that pitches miss the zone by nine inches. But how does a pitch like that get called a strike? I mean, ever? I don’t want to act like some kind of umpiring authority, because I *haven’t* ever been an ump, and I know sometimes people make mistakes. It’s just — nine inches. Technically, 9.1 inches, in this case. The worst called strike of the 2017 regular season’s first half missed the outer edge of the zone by 9.1 inches. You might’ve seen that Angel Hernandez has been in the news lately.

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Justin Bour is going to participate in the Home Run Derby tonight. He’s tied with a bunch of other guys at 16th in baseball with 20 homers. He’ll surpass his previous career high early in the second half.

This is the point at which we normally address a crazy mechanical change a player’s made, allowing him to reach a new level of performance. That crazy change might not exist in Bour’s case, though.

The player himself doesn’t think there’s a big adjustment in his rear-view mirror. “From being in pro ball to now, I’ve only made minor changes to my swing, but for the most part, I’ve always just been myself and tried to get a little better every day,” Bour said before this past weekend’s series against the Giants.

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Mike Trout was injured on May 28. Through to that point, he’d been worth a league-leading 3.4 WAR, and he was sitting on a career-best 208 wRC+. Partial seasons are never the same as complete seasons, because complete seasons give every player equal opportunity to get hot or get cold, but Trout, at least then, was on course for the best big-league season of his life. The best big-league season of his life! For Mike Trout!

The injury was devastating, for everyone. Everyone, I suppose, but the Angels’ rivals. The Angels suddenly had to deal with the freak long-term absence of the best player in the world. Fans had to deal with the same. Personally, I’ve had fewer things to write about. It’s been about a month and a half of not writing about Mike Trout, and I don’t like that. Nobody likes that. We all need more Trout in our lives.

We’re going to get it again. On Sunday, Trout played his final minor-league rehab game, walking three times while also knocking a triple. Trout says he feels ready, and the medical team is supportive, and so Trout will return to the bigs on the other side of the All-Star break. We made it, everybody. We made it several weeks without Mike Trout, and we’re all right, and even the Angels are all right, too. There’s light at the end of this tunnel, and we are all so nearly there.

As such, to mark the imminent occasion, I want to show you a table and ask you a question. This table includes Angels team stats. Everything’s split into two groups, corresponding to two periods of time. One of the periods of time shows the Angels through May 28. The other shows the Angels since May 29. I want you to examine this table for however long you need, and then respond to the following poll. Thank you!

That’s run differential per game, by the way. And, later, stolen bases per game. Feeling good? Here you go. Have a great afternoon and evening.

If I know you, you’ve been around long enough to have seen a number of these. There isn’t much in the way of variation. Over a large enough timescale, the worst called ball will come on a pitch thrown in the vicinity of the middle of the strike zone. There’s no alternative. Those are the clearest, most obvious strikes, so when they’re not strikes, they’re lousy called balls. They all look more or less alike in that regard. So exploration is just about filling in the details. When did this particular bad call happen? Who was the umpire who made the actual call? Which pitcher threw the pitch? Which catcher caught — or didn’t catch — the pitch? What was the situation at the time? Did the call end up mattering much?

I’ve written the same post a whole bunch of times. I’ve done the same research, to end up with the same kind of play. Just about always, the call happens because the catcher sets up somewhere, and then the pitcher badly misses. I usually make some reference to how it’s evidence that framing does matter. Catchers struggle to catch pitches headed for surprising locations. You can “earn” a ball, even when you throw a pitch down the pipe.

This is another play that wasn’t very clean. We’re going back to June 18, in the first inning of a game between the Rangers and the Mariners. Danny Valencia got ahead in the count 1-and-0 against Yu Darvish, because Darvish and catcher Robinson Chirinos failed to properly execute. But this time, there’s a twist. This isn’t the same post as always.

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Can the home-run spike be enjoyed equally across the game?

Some hitters are in better position to take advantage of what might be a juiced ball. Some environments, like Yankee Stadium II and Chase Field, are more favorable to fly balls from the hitter’s perspective. With home-run rates rising per fly ball (HR/FB) across the game, however, it seems at times as though no park is immune to the invasion of the long ball. It seems like we’re running out of pitching-friendly environments.

So that brings me to the curious case of the Padres.

The Padres lead the National League in percentage of runs scored via the home run (46.2%). They Padres would have not been my first guess, but I asked FanGraphs’ own Joe Douglas to research teams’ share of runs off home runs and this is what he found:

Now, the Padres are also last in runs scored (305) — in large part because of their league-worst .295 on-base percentage — so it’s not as though this penchant for the long ball has translated directly to offensive proficiency. But the club ranks second in fly-ball percentage (37%), trailing only the outlier Mets (43%), and is tied for third in GB/FB ratio (1.20). The Padres, despite their home, are hunting fly balls and homers and are having some success.

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Over the weekend, the Twins called up speedy center fielder Zach Granite from Triple-A. Granite is a KATOH darling who made my preseason 2017 All-KATOH Team and has been featured regularly on the Fringe Five. Granite’s a stats-over-scouts guy through and through.

I first became aware of Granite around this time last year, when he ranked very highly on KATOH’s midseason top-100 list. At the time, there was little to his profile aside from elite contact and speed. He stole an outrageous 56 bases and played elite defense in center, while also running a strikeout rate in the single-digits. Despite his extreme contact, he only managed to hit a respectable-but-punchless .295/.347/.382.

He’s ramped up his hitting this year. In 59 games at the Triple-A level, he slashed .360/.412/.492, including a .446/.503/.619 tear over his last 36 games. His stolen bases and single-digit strikeout rate remain, but he appears to be driving the ball a bit more than he did in the past. His ISO has spiked to a not-quite-punchless .131, while his BABIP has jumped to .394. Twenty-one extra-base hits in 59 games is respectable, even if that total has been aided by his speed.

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