We have speed limits for a reason. Excessive speed is a factor in more than a quarter of automobile fatalities and is particularly deadly when combined with other dangerous behaviors behind the wheel. And yet, the idea that we can drive 5-10 mph over the limit without repercussion is so entrenched in our collective psyche — and so effectively decriminalized in most American cities — that most people hardly think twice about driving 35 in a 30. Behind this normalization lies an unexamined, exceptionalist belief: “This speed limit may be a good idea, but I have the ability to exceed it safely.”

There are a number of behaviors that fit into this category of exceptionalism: I’m the one who can get away with not flossing, I can spend hours on social media without consequence, I can stay cool into my 40s. Narcissism lies at the end of this road, but most of us don’t make it nearly that far. In doses, it’s entirely normal to think that general principles don’t apply to you personally. The contradiction at play is just part of the human experience, and it’s not always unhealthy: from this wellspring comes hope and ambition, among other traits and emotions.

As far as baseball is concerned, a no-hitter is perhaps the most wholesome embodiment of this form of individual exceptionalism. In the modern game, chasing a no-no is a retrograde “screw you,” not only to the opponent, but to the conventions of our time. “Take your third time through the order penalty and shove it,” and all that. Understandably, there was a bit of no-hitter fatigue swirling through the audience earlier this season. For me though, even with the increased frequency, the no-hitter remains a rebellion, and it’s as badass as ever. Read the rest of this entry »

MLB passed the halfway mark of the 2021 season over the long holiday weekend, providing a convenient spot to take a break, look back over the preseason projections, and hopefully not cringe too much about how the predictions are shaking out. Since this is the big midseason update, I used the full-fat ZiPS model for individual players in addition to the normal depth chart reconfiguring, with all the high-fructose algorithms rather than the leaner one used for daily updates.

Let’s start with the American League standings.

I was making a “do not panic” argument on behalf of the Yankees back when they were 5–10 and some people were digging for their doomsday preparedness kits, and while it might not be time to find where you left those water purification tablets, the situation is bleaker now than it was three months ago. Not that the team is actually worse; New York has been on an 88-win pace in the games since that reference point. But an 88-win pace isn’t nearly enough to get out of an early-season hole in a division where there are three other teams with more than detectable pulses. Even projected to play solid baseball the rest of the season, the Yankees have gone from the favorite to the projected fourth-place team.

Read the rest of this entry »

“We gave Pham up for Renfroe and a damn slapdick prospect?” Blake Snell bemoaned live on Twitch. He was reacting to a trade between the Rays and the Padres that took place during the 2019-20 offseason. Snell’s annoyance caused a bit of controversy – he ended up reaching out to said prospect, Xavier Edwards, to smooth things over – but it also popularized the term, to the point that it’s now part of our baseball lexicon.

What does it mean exactly, though? Urban Dictionary informs us that a “slapdick” is more or less an incompetent person (to put it nicely), but that doesn’t feel quite right in a baseball context. For me and presumably others, a slapdick hitter is someone who doesn’t hit for power and earns his keep by spraying the ball around – someone like Nick Madrigal. Although the Rays currently do not roster Madrigal, they do have this: As of this writing, their hitters collectively have the highest BABIP (.264) and wRC+ (57) on groundballs. A slapdick hitting team.

If your sabermetric senses are tingling, I understand. Due to the fickle nature of BABIP, continued success on grounders is a tenuous endeavor. It’s entirely possible the Rays have gotten lucky over the past few months. But in the spirit of FanGraphs, I began to wonder if there’s an extra dimension to this. The numbers, in fact, do posit an interesting idea – that the Rays have set themselves up for success on grounders, more so than most teams this season. Read the rest of this entry »

We talk a lot about the “face” of baseball — a player who has the look, the excitement, the highlight reel, the things that make them an ideal candidate to be a poster child for the game. “Here,” we say, to would-be fans. “This is what you’re getting when you start to watch that sport.” It could be Bryce Harper with his GIF-worthy hair tosses, or Aaron Judge with his giant frame and home runs. It could be Mookie Betts or Mike Trout, whose talents defy generational lines and who we will likely be talking about for decades after they retire.

As baseball faces go, there are lots of options, even if it feels like no one can agree on them or decide who would be the best candidate to usher in a new generation of fans. Whose poster would these kids want on their walls? Whose stance would they most likely emulate in Little League games? Which superstar can surpass the limitations of team fandom to become beloved by all? It’s a tough request to fulfill, and that’s likely why there are no firm answers.

In recent months, I’ve begun to wonder if what baseball needs is a face at all. Perhaps what baseball needs instead is a voice.

Read the rest of this entry »

Because there are so few minor league baseball games on Mondays this year, you’ll see me play with the format of the Tuesday Daily Prospect Notes. I’m lucky that the top prospect in the sport, 20-year-old Tampa Bay Rays infielder Wander Franco, is likely to debut against the Red Sox this evening. The Franco report from the Rays/Top 100 lists still applies, and folks looking for a general overview of his talent should go jam on the clipboard here and read that if you haven’t already done so. Today I’m going to be breaking down his 2021 season using Synergy Baseball, a pitch-by-pitch video software program that is often used by MLB teams.

We made a decision to allocate scouting travel budget toward Synergy Baseball during the offseason, when the timeline for vaccines was still hazy but the presence of COVID was not. Unsure if/how much I’d be travelling again this year, we funneled money into Synergy in case I could not. It was initially useful for watching action in foreign pro leagues and during Spring Training as I worked on prospect lists, but Kevin Goldstein and I also have access to pitch-by-pitch video from Triple-A games (not the whole minors, just Triple-A), as well as metadata from each pitch. I can’t share video with you here (or anywhere) or I’d be in violation of MiLB.tv terms of service, but I can share with you some of the Franco metadata to illustrate the specific nature of his skills and put them in a big league context.

Read the rest of this entry »

Kevin Goldstein and I have updated the pro portion of the Top 100, which means we quickly reviewed the placement of players in the 50 FV tier and above, and considered who was not yet in those tiers but should be based on how they’ve looked during the first month of the 2021 season. I still have three total org audits to do — Milwaukee, Oakland and the Cubs — before I start peeling graduates off the list. Those will be completed shortly. You can find the updated list here.

Also, if you missed it, Kevin and I updated our draft rankings and posted a Mock Draft on Monday.

The lone change up near the top of the 100 is Riley Greene moving into the top 20; he’s in the mix with several other similarly-aged players with the talent to be consistent All-Stars, like Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodríguez, and Corbin Carroll.

DL Hall moved into the 55 FV tier on the strength of his stuff. He’s still walking a fairly high rate of opposing batters but just on the strength of his three plus pitches, could be a Haderesque relief weapon even if he can’t start. Read the rest of this entry »

Despite trading Blake Snell to the Padres and losing Charlie Morton to free agency, the Rays currently own the best record in all of baseball at 43-25. Tyler Glasnow has played a significant role in their place in the standings, but the 27-year-old righty’s season is on hold after he landed on the 10-day Injured List due to a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament and a strain of his flexor tendon. While the team is still waiting to determine whether he’ll need surgery, Glasnow made headlines by casting blame on Major League Baseball’s crackdown on grip-enhancing substances, claiming that altering his grip to compensate for going “cold turkey” contributed to his injury.

Glasnow left Monday night’s start against the White Sox after just four innings and 53 pitches, both season lows. Though he allowed two runs to one of the league’s most potent offenses, he didn’t pitch badly, striking out six while walking just one. He matched his seasonal average of 97.0 mph with his four-seam fastball, generated eight swings and misses (seven via his slider) and equaled his 34% seasonal CSW (called strike and whiff) rate as well.

Via the Tampa Bay Times‘ Mark Topkin, Glasnow felt tightness in his elbow but believed he had avoided a worst-case scenario:

Initial word from the team was inflammation, but Glasnow said that he felt “a little tug” and “tightness” in his elbow, first on a 98.2-mph fastball, then during three subsequent pitches to finish the inning.

“I think I got it relatively early,” Glasnow said. “I just was like, I don’t want to go back out and like chance it. I felt it, like, the last four (pitches). The (velocity) and everything was still there. But it just felt not right.”

Glasnow underwent an MRI and consulted with a doctor in Chicago, resulting in the diagnosis. Via MLB.com’s Adam Berry, the Rays said that a timeline for his return will be determined after further evaluation; he’s scheduled to see another doctor on Friday. While the tear itself may not be severe enough to mandate Tommy John surgery, which would knock him out until at least the middle of next season, a sprain significant enough that he receives an injection of platelet-rich plasma would likely mean at least a six-week wait until he’s cleared to throw again, and then several weeks to build up his pitch count. When a frustrated Glasnow spoke to the media via Zoom on Tuesday, he sounded resigned to missing most of the remainder of the season. Via The Athletic, he said, “I’m sitting here, my lifelong dream, I want to go out and win a Cy Young. I want to be an All-Star and now it’s shit on. Now it’s over. And now I have to try and rehab to come back in the playoffs.”

Indeed, Glasnow was pitching his way into All-Star and Cy Young consideration for a team whose Playoff Odds currently sit at 74.6%. He entered Wednesday ranked second in the AL in WAR (2.5), xERA (2.67), strikeout rate (36.2%), and strikeout-walk differential (28.2%) as well as third in FIP (2.76) and fifth in ERA (2.66).

This is the second time in three years the 6-foot-7 fireballer has been sidelined by an arm injury after a stellar start to his season. In 2019, Glasnow missed about four months due to a forearm strain, going down in mid-May after posting a 1.86 ERA, 2.30 FIP, and 33% strikeout rate through his first eight starts. He threw just 12.1 regular season innings in four short starts after returning in September because he didn’t have enough time to stretch out to a full workload, though he made two starts in the Rays’ five-game loss to the Astros in the Division Series.

Regarding UCL sprains and PRP injections, former Yankees pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, to cite a high-profile example, missed about 2 1/2 months in 2014 via that combination, and likewise for the Reds’ Michael Lorenzen in ’16. The Marlins’ Wei-Yin Chen returned in just seven weeks in 2016, and the Mets’ Seth Lugo in about 10 weeks in ’17, but he only had to be built up as a reliever. Shohei Ohtani missed nearly three months of pitching after an injection in 2018; he returned to DHing after about four weeks, but made just one September mound appearance before needing Tommy John surgery. Several other pitchers who received such injections wound up getting the surgery before they could return.

Two and a half months from now would mean a September return for Glasnow, but all of this presupposes that his flexor tendon strain — an injury that itself can lead to season-ending surgery, as in the case of Miles Mikolas last year — is minor enough to heal along the same timeline. Really, until we know more about the severity of his injuries and he receives another evaluation, this is just guessing. For now it will suffice to say that his season is deep in the weeds.

For as big a blow as the league’s best team losing its best pitcher might be, Glasnow’s comments on Tuesday made headlines for another reason. On the day that MLB formally announced its plans to issue 10-game suspensions for pitchers caught using foreign substances — whether to enhance their grips or improve the spin rates on their pitches — the pitcher expressed his belief that not using a grip enhancer was a factor in his injury. “I one hundred percent believe that contributed to me getting hurt, no doubt,” said Glasnow. “I have used sticky stuff before. It’s ridiculous that it seems like this whole public perception of select few people — your favorite pitcher probably 50 years ago was using something, too. If you felt these balls, how inconsistent they were, you have to use something. My substance of choice is sunscreen and rosin, nothing egregious, something where I can get a grip on the ball and it doesn’t feel dusty.”

Via the Washington Post, here’s a video containing most of Glasnow’s comments, followed by my own transcription of its highlights:

The pitcher explained the sequence of events that he feels contributed to his injury:

“Two starts ago against the Nationals [June 8], I went cold turkey — nothing. Before that start, I remember when all this stuff came out I was talking to people and talking to doctors and they were like, the thing that maybe MLB doesn’t realize is that… maybe that will add to injuries. And in my mind I was like. ‘That sounds dumb. That sounds like an excuse a player would use to make sure he can use sticky stuff.’

“But I threw to the Nationals with nothing — I don’t use Spider Tack, I don’t need more spin, I have huge hands and I spin the ball fine. I want more grip.

“I did well against the Nationals, probably my best start all year. I woke up the next day and I was sore in places I didn’t even know I had muscles in. I felt completely different. I switched my fastball grip and my curveball grip… I had to put my fastball deeper into my hand and grip it way harder. Instead of holding my curveball at the tip of my fingers, I had to dig it deeper into my hand. So I’m choking the shit out of all my pitches.

…. “Waking up after that start, I was like, ‘This sucks. Something is weird here.’ That same feeling is persisting all week long. I go into my start [Monday] and that same feeling, it pops or whatever the hell happened to my elbow. I feel it. Something happens.”

Ugh. To Glasnow, the issue is less a matter of the league enforcing the rule than the midseason timing:

“I’m not trying to blame anyone, I’m not trying to say it’s all MLB’s fault. They got thrown into this situation and are doing the best they possibly can to navigate around this. They’re trying to make this fair for people, I understand that.

“Whether you want us to not use sticky stuff or not is fine. Do it in the offseason. Give us a chance to adjust to it. But I just threw 80-something innings, then you’ve just told me I can’t use anything in the middle of the year. I have to change everything I’ve been doing the entire season… I truly believe that’s why I got hurt.

“Me throwing 100 and being 6-7 is why I got hurt, but that contributed.

Ouch. For what it’s worth (perhaps not much), Glasnow’s average four-seam fastball spin rate on Tuesday (2,419) was just five RPM below his seasonal average, while the aforementioned June 8 start was 67 below his seasonal average (about half of a season’s standard deviation for most pitchers, according to Eno Sarris) and tied for his second-lowest per-game average. In other words, if he wasn’t using anything to spin the ball against the Nationals, he had other outings earlier this year where his spin rate was similarly low. We’re not talking fluctuations of a few hundred RPM from start to start.

Anyway, the sticky stuff problem is much larger than just Glasnow, and if there’s a silver lining to his absence it’s that maybe MLB will have a better… handle… on the situation by the time he’s able to return. As to how the Rays will deal his absence, obviously he won’t be easy to replace — particularly given that his 88 innings is the league’s second-highest total — though it’s not as though Glasnow had singlehandedly pitched them to the majors’ best record. Granted, their use of openers muddies the accounting a bit, but their starters have pitched to a 3.43 ERA (second in the AL) and 3.69 FIP (fourth).

Lefties Rich Hill, Ryan Yarbrough, Shane McClanahan, and Josh Fleming have been doing the bulk of the work in that capacity, with righties Michael Wacha and Collin McHugh sometimes serving as openers in front of Fleming and Yarbrough. Righty Luis Patiño, a 21-year-old rookie who ranked 12th on our Top 100 Prospects list this spring, and who was the centerpiece in the return for Snell, is currently starting at Triple-A Durham and is the likely candidate to rejoin the mix. From late April to mid-May, Patiño made three starts and two relief appearances totaling 15 innings, acquitting himself well (3.60 ERA, 3.55 FIP) before a right middle finger laceration sent him to the IL; he was optioned upon returning.

Righty Brent Honeywell Jr., a former Top 100 prospect who is back in action after undergoing four arm surgeries in a 3 1/2-year span, might be another option to fill Glasnow’s spot at some point, most likely in an opener capacity given that he’s thrown just 15.2 innings in 11 appearances between Tampa Bay and Durham. Righty Chris Archer, whose trade to the Pirates on July 31, 2018 brought Glasnow to the Rays in the first place, is back in the fold after missing all of 2020 due to surgery to alleviate thoracic outlet syndrome; he made just two appearances before suffering a bout of forearm tightness and is eying a mid-July return. Righties Drew Strotman and Shane Baz, who entered the season respectively ranked 17th and seventh on the Rays’ top prospects list, could be options at some point as well. Both are currently at Durham, though the latter — who was the player to be named later in the Archer trade — was just promoted there on Monday after dominating at Double-A Montgomery, with 49 strikeouts and just two walks in 32.2 innings. The July 30 trade deadline will offer an opportunity for fortification from outside the organization as well.

One way or another, the Rays will patch their rotation together and soldier on towards the playoffs, because that’s what the Rays always seem to do, and hopefully Glasnow will be well enough to participate in the ride. In the meantime, as umpires pat down every pitcher, we’ll see if other hurlers lend credence to his theory that the loss of grip-enhancing substances plays a role in pitcher injuries, a dimension that hasn’t received much consideration until now.

The Rays have been one of the hottest teams in the majors the past few months and have surged to the top of the American League East standings mostly on the back on the club’s offense. Since May 15, the team has posted a combined 132 wRC+, a figure that would easily lead baseball over this span if it weren’t for the Blue Jays (who boast a 145 wRC+). Given their propensity to not invest in their club’s payroll at levels even close to league average, the Rays often have the feeling of a faceless club. But they do have a few notable position players who you would expect to be leading the charge as they have been blitzing the league.

Without looking, which player is leading the team in WAR? Is it postseason folk-hero Randy Arozarena? What about Austin Meadows or Brandon Lowe who have both led the team in position player WAR in recent seasons? The answer, to my surprise, is utility infielder Joey Wendle with 1.7 WAR.

Wendle was traded to the Rays from the Athletics for a Player To Be Named Later following the 2017 season. In parts of four seasons with the Rays including 2021, Wendle has compiled 7.3 WAR in 1,163 plate appearances, which prorates to about 4.1 WAR per 650 plate appearances (a proxy for a normal season with regular playing time). He is a player who is likely anonymous to the casual fan mostly due to his deployment. As part of the Rays infielder mob, he has only stepped up to the plate on 545, 263, and 184 occasions the past three seasons (note that the 184 PAs came during the pandemic-shortened season). And you never know where to look for him; in his Rays tenure, he has appeared mostly at second and third base but also at shortstop and in left field. One might call him the quintessential Rays player. Wendle is versatile and quietly productive. Read the rest of this entry »

Like many of you, I spent a good portion of Memorial Day watching baseball. I started with the Rays and Yankees, and was watching the YES Network feed when rookie shortstop Taylor Walls stepped to the plate. Immediately, the broadcast went to a graphic of who the Rays elected not to call up after they traded Willy Adames to the Brewers: Wander Franco, universally seen as the best prospect in the game, and the red-hot Vidal Bruján. It was a nice little troll, but while so much attention is deservedly paid to the Franco and Jarred Kelenic types before and after they debut, not every rookie has the same kind of prospect pedigree. With that in mind, here are nine prospects who aren’t getting the same kind of hype but are performing at a level that might earn them a big-league look this year. Read the rest of this entry »

Adam Frazier has an admirable goal, one that few of his contemporaries would even contemplate trying to attain. At a time when hitters are going down by way of the K more frequently than at any time in history, the Pittsburgh Pirates second baseman aspires to walk more than he strikes out.

He might actually do it. With Memorial Day right around the corner, Frazier has a 9.6 K% — fourth-best among qualified hitters — and 16 free passes to go with 19 strikeouts. Moreover, he’s been putting barrels on baseballs. To scant acclaim — par for the course when you play in Pittsburgh — Frazier is slashing an eye-opening .337/.399/.466.

Asked about his stated goal, the 29-year-old Mississippi State University product admitted that it won’t be easy.

“Guys today throw harder and harder, with nastier stuff,” said Frazier. “[Hitting] continues to get more difficult. I’ve always felt I have a pretty good eye, it’s just a matter of being able to put the bat on the ball.”

Frazier has fanned twice in a game three times this season, on each occasion punching out against a starter and a reliever. There are no walks in the park in today’s game. From first inning to last, power arms are everywhere you turn.

Whom has he faced that stands out as being especially nasty? Read the rest of this entry »