Archive for Reds

Sunday Notes: Buck Farmer is Flying Under the Radar in Cincinnati

Buck Farmer is flying under the radar while making an impact in Cincinnati. Baseball’s hottest team went into yesterday having won 12 straight games, and the 32-year-old reliever had pitched in seven of them. Moreover, the Reds had been victorious in 14 of the last 15 contests he’d appeared in. Over those outings, Farmer was credited with two wins and a save while allowing just a pair of runs in 15 innings.

He’s been solid from the start. On the season — his second in Cincinnati after eight in Detroit — the Conyers, Georgia native has held opposing hitters to a .188 average while logging a 2.41 ERA over a team-high 35 appearances. Consistently pounding the zone with a three-pitch mix, he’s issued just 10 free passes while fanning 33 batters in 37-and-a-third innings. By most statistical markers, he’s never been better.

Farmer credits Cincinnati’s pitching program for much of his success.

“I think it’s the development here,” Farmer replied when asked what differentiates his current and former clubs. “[The Tigers] were starting to change over to a more analytical approach before I left, but I don’t think they’d quite made that adjustment yet. When I came here, they were already tuned in. DJ {Derek Johnson] and the other coaches are fully invested in us. They want us to grab a little bit more here and there, and that includes taking what we’re good at and trying to make it great.”

For Farmer, that meant reworking a pitch that has become a lethal weapon. Augmented by a four-seam fastball and a changeup, his slider has flummoxed hitters to the tune of an .091 average and a .212 slug. His whiff-rate with the offering is a heady 45.3%. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Five Years Later, Will Benson Continues To Grow

Will Benson was 19 years old and playing in the Midwest League when he led Sunday Notes on May 13, 2018. Two years removed from being drafted 14th overall by Cleveland out of Atlanta’s Westminster High School, he was both promising and raw. His batting average was hovering around the Mendoza line, but his OBP was a healthy .376, and his seven home runs were tied for tops in the circuit.

In many ways, he’s much the same player now. Acquired by the Cincinnati Reds from the Guardians this past February, the 6-foot-5, 230-pound outfielder had a strong 2022 campaign with Triple-A Columbus — 17 bombs and a .948 OPS — but he’s otherwise been a work-in-progress since entering pro ball. His career slash line in the minors is .221/.353/.441, and over 122 big-league plate appearances — he debuted last August — that line is a paltry .187/.256/.243. Contact has been an issue. In back-to-back seasons on the farm, Benson fanned 152 and 151 times. His K-rate in the majors is 32.2%.

But the potential is still there, as evidenced by a pair of performances over the past two weeks. On May 30, Benson had three hits, including a triple, in Cincinnati’s 9-8 win over the Red Sox at Fenway Park. Just four days ago, he walked off the Los Angeles Dodgers with his first big-league home run. Moreover, his athleticism remains elite.

I asked Benson about the road he’s traveled since our 2018 conversation following his three-hit game in Boston.

“It’s been rocky, but with a lot of growth,” Benson told me. “There have been good times, there have been bad times, and through it all there has been so much growth and change for me as a young man. I was 19 then, and now I’m 24 with a family; I have a baby boy that was born in March. There has been growth within the game, as well.”

Like all prospects, Benson had his development path hindered by the pandemic. With the minor-league season cancelled, he had to settle for a short stint in the independent Constellation Energy League, an experience that turned out to be anything but rosy. He had just eight hits in 56 at-bats, and fanned 27 times.

“In terms of playing and continuing with that flow, the whole rhythm of things, it was definitely tough,” Benson said of the 2020 summer. “But I did get to play in Sugar Land, and that was dope. It kind of opened my eyes to ‘I’ve got work to do.’ I felt kind of sad to go into that league and not do very well. But I worked, and I continued to learn.”

A mixed-bag season followed — 17 homers and 146 strikeouts — but then came a career-best 2022. In 401 Triple-A plate appearances, the youngster matched his 2021 home run total while fanning just 91 times. Moreover, his slash line was a stand-up-and-take-notice .279/.426/.522, and he stole 16 bases in 20 attempts. Among those taking notice were the Cincinnati Reds.

“They had been following me ever since I got drafted, and I guess they liked the progress I’ve been making,” Benson said of the trade. “When I played against them in Triple-A last year, I tore them up pretty good. I think it was a combination of that, and them liking my ability on the diamond. I understand that maybe I won’t be a guy who hits .300, but I can be a guy who gets on base close to 40% of the time, steal bases, and hit the ball hard. I can impact the game.”

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RANDOM HITTER-PITCHER MATCHUPS

Curtis Pride went 7 for 11 against Kevin Tapani.

Mookie Betts went 7 for 11 aa against Danny Duffy.

Steve Bowling went 3 for 7 against Glenn Abbott.

Mark Carreon went 10 for 18 against John Burkett.

Glenn Burke went 4 for 6 against Steve Carlton.

Johnny Giavotella went 5 for 7 against Anthony Bass.

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Corey Rosier would like to play in Boston this season. Whether that happens remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: He’ll add athleticism and a discerning eye to the Red Sox roster if and when he arrives. Acquired from San Diego last summer as part of the Eric Hosmer deal, the 23-year-old, left-handed-hitting outfielder has been described by our lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen as “a 70 runner with a good idea of the strike zone.” His numbers this season have been promising. In 155 plate appearances with the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs, Rosier has a .305/.364/.433 slash line, a 122 wRC+, and he’s swiped 24 bases in 27 attempts.

He credits offseason speed training at Tampa’s House of Athlete for improving what were already impressive wheels.

“The program I go through has helped make my first step even better, and to get to my top speed quicker,” explained Rosier, who ran a 6.4 60 at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro. “Yo Murphy is who put it together. His primary sport is football — he played in the NFL for a little bit — but they’ve branched out to other sports and do a really good baseball program.”

Rosier wasn’t big into football growing up. Rather, he was “a baseball/basketball guy” who was primarily a shooting guard on the hardwood. Defense was one of his strong suits. The 5-foot-10, 190-pound Waldorf, Maryland native would often guard the other team’s best player.

His ability to handle high-level pitching will go a long way toward determining his future on the diamond, and he took a big step in that direction this past winter. Rosier was introduced to a hitting coach named Oswaldo “Ovy” Rodriguez Diaz, who helped him clean up his bat path and strengthen his top hand. The latter part of that equation was paramount.

“Being a right-handed thrower and a left-handed hitter, my bottom hand is naturally more dominant,” Rosier explained. “What was happening is that my swing was getting in and out of the zone — not having a strong top hand was kind of making me get snap-hooky — versus keeping the path through to centerfield. I really focused on strengthening that, and it’s definitely helped.”

The possibility that he could potentially help the Red Sox as soon as this season came up when I asked the confident youngster if he had any final thoughts before preparing that night’s game.

“You haven’t asked me when I’ll be a big-leaguer,’ responded Rosier, who next to Triple-A infielder David Hamilton ranks as the fastest player in the Red Sox system. “I think that could be by the end of this year. With the way I run the bases and play defense, if the Sox make a playoff push, I could be a guy who comes up and helps them win by doing the same things I’m doing here. It’s coming a lot sooner than people know.”

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A quiz:

Ty Cobb has the most singles, doubles, and triples in Detroit Tigers history. Who is the franchise leader for home runs?

The answer can be found below.

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NEWS NOTES

Bobby Bolin, who pitched for three teams — the San Francisco Giants, Milwaukee Brewers, and Boston Red Sox — from 1961-1973, died earlier this month at age 84. The right-hander from Hickory Grove, South Carolina appeared in 495 games and went 88-75 with 51 saves and a 3.40 ERA.

Jack Baldschun, who pitched for the three teams — the Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres — from 1961-1970, died earlier this week at age 83. The Greenville, Ohio and Miami University product had a three-year-stretch with the Phillies where he logged 29 relief wins, 50 saves, and a 2.79 ERA.

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The answer to the quiz is Al Kaline, with 399 home runs. Norm Cash is second, with 373. Miguel Cabrera is third, with 369.

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The Milwaukee Brewers made a shrewd move when they acquired Owen Miller from the Cleveland Guardians last December in exchange for cash (thanks to The Athletic’s Zack Meisel for confirming that it was a cash transaction with no PTBNL involved). In 174 plate appearances with his new team, the 26-year-old infielder is slashing .313/.351/.448 with four home runs and a 120 wRC+. Moreover, he’s added versatility to the lineup by playing five defensive positions. Featured here at FanGraphs as part of my “Talks Hitting” series last December, the Mequon native is the 12th Wisconsin-born player in Brewers history.

On a related note, the current iteration of the Milwaukee Brewers was established in April 1970 when the Seattle Pilots relocated to Wisconsin’s largest city on short notice, this after the Pilots went into into bankruptcy a week before Opening Day. The moniker preceded the move at the major-league level. In 1884, the Milwaukee Brewers played in the Union Association, an American Association team went by that name in 1891, and when the American League was established in 1901, the Brewers were an inaugural member. The last of those franchises is now in Maryland, the Brewers having become the St. Louis Browns in 1902, and subsequently the Baltimore Orioles in 1954.

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FOREIGN AFFAIRS

Gosuke Katoh hit safely in his first 10 games with NPB’s Nippon-Ham Fighters and is 19-for-51 with four home runs through his first 13. The 28-year-old Mountain View, California native played in eight games for the Toronto Blue Jays last season.

Liván Moinelo is 2-0 with three saves and a 0.87 ERA with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks. The 27-year-old Cuban-born southpaw has 28 strikeouts and nine hits allowed in 20-and-two-thirds innings. One year ago, he had a 1.03 ERA, 24 saves, and 87 strikeouts in 52-and-two-thirds innings.

Seunghwan Oh recorded his 500th professional save when the KBO’s Samsung Lions beat the NC Dinos 9-6 earlier this week. The 40-year-old right-hander has since added one more and now has 379 saves in the KBO, 80 in NPB, and 42 in MLB. All but three of his stateside saves came with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2016-2017.

Hye Seong Kim is slashing .313/.379/.427 with 13 doubles and three home runs for the KBO’s Kiwoom Heroes. The 24-year-old second baseman has 14 steals in as many attempts.

Peter O’Brien is slashing .393/.454/.793 with a circuit-best 13 home runs for the Mexican League’s Pericos de Puebla. The 32-year-old outfielder played for the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2015-2016 and the Miami Marlins in 2018-2019.

Fernando Rodney is 2-1 with five saves and a 7.56 ERA over 17 Mexican League relief appearances. The 46-year-old veteran of 17 MLB seasons has seen action with both Leones de Yucatan and Diablos Rojos del Mexico.

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Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand were minor-league teammates in the Minnesota Twins system before being traded to the Cincinnati Reds last August in exchange for Tyler Mahle. Steer — featured in my “Talks Hitting” series earlier this month — is enjoying a stellar rookie season, while Encarnacion-Strand, a 2021 fourth-round draft pick out of Oklahoma State University, is knocking loudly on the big-league door. According to Steer, the erstwhile Cowboy doesn’t lack for confidence.

“It was Strand’s first spring training,” recalled Steer. “Some of us were talking in the dugout before an inter-squad game, and he said that he wanted to hit .300 with 30 home runs that year. We were like, ‘What?” Like, no one does that. One of us said, “That’s your expectation?” He said, “Yeah.” Sure enough, he goes ahead and hits 30, and hits over .300.”

Encarnacion-Strand’s exact totals in 2022 — this across 330 plate appearances in High-A and 208 in Double-A — were 32 home runs and a .304 batting average. Based on what he’s doing this year, those numbers weren’t a fluke. Over 194 plate appearances with Triple-A Louisville, he’s slashing a lusty .356/.418/.718 with 16 home runs and a 176 wRC+.

“He’s pretty confident,” said Steer. “He’s also pretty good.”

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FARM NOTES

DJ Peters is getting an opportunity on the mound. The 27-year-old former Los Angeles Dodgers and Texas Rangers outfielder pitched two scoreless innings for the Detroit Tigers Florida Complex League entry earlier this week.

Noah Mendlinger is slashing .306/.427/.471 with four home runs in 151 plate appearances between High-A Peoria and Double-A Springfield. The 22-year-old infielder was signed as a non-drafted free agent by the St. Louis Cardinals out of Georgia College & State University in 2021.

Aaron Schunk is slashing .341/.385/.625 with 10 home runs in 192 plate appearances for the Triple-A Albuquerque Isotopes. Drafted by the Colorado Rockies out of the University of Georgia in 2019, the 25-year-old infielder was first featured here at FanGraphs in June 2020.

Emmet Sheehan is 4-1 with a 1.86 ERA and 88 strikeouts in 53-and-a-third innings for the Double-A Tulsa Drillers. Currently No. 17 our Los Angeles Dodgers Top Prospect list, the 23-year-old right-hander was featured here at FanGraphs last August.

Al Alburquerque is 1-0 with three saves and a 1.29 ERA over 19 relief outings for the independent Atlantic League’s Long Island Ducks. The 38-year-old right-hander — a veteran of 264 big-league games over seven seasons, including five with the Detroit Tigers — last pitched affiliated ball in 2018.

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Which is better, baseball on TV or baseball on the radio? I asked that question in a Twitter poll a few days ago, and the results favored eyeballs over ears. TV received 56.7 of the votes, while radio garnered 43.3%.

Regardless of the medium, the quality of the people behind the microphones matters. In my opinion, it matters a lot. I do my best to tune in to a wide variety of games, even for just an inning or two — keeping abreast of what’s happening across the two leagues is part of my job — and it’s safe to say that not all play-by-play announcers and analysts are created equal. Whether I opt for TV or radio, or for home or away, the respective voices of the game strongly influence my choice.

As one commenter on the poll put it, “It depends upon the broadcasters.”

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LINKS YOU’LL LIKE

Emma Tiedemann and Rylee Pay — the second all-female booth in professional baseball history — are finding chemistry as Double-A Portland’s broadcast team. Jen McCaffrey wrote about them for The Athletic (subscription required).

KCUR Kansas City’s Greg Echlin reported on how the Royals-owned Urban Youth Academy, in the opinion of some members of the city’s African-American community, has strayed from its original goals.

At Forbes, John Perrotto wrote about how Oakland Athletics manager Mark Kotsay is staying positive during a horrid season.

Sports Illustrated’s Stephanie Apstein wrote about how MLB has the power to keep the A’s in the Bay Area.

Jonathan Mayo did a mock draft at MLB.com.

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RANDOM FACTS AND STATS

The Cleveland Guardians have lost 17 games by one run, the most in the majors.

Andrew McCutchen has 1,999 hits, 399 doubles, 295 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 51.9 WAR. Hall of Famer Tony Oliva had 1,917 hits, 329 doubles, 220 home runs, a 129 wRC+, and 40.7 WAR.

Kansas City Royals right-hander Jordan Lyles is 0-10 with a 6.84 ERA and a .239 BABIP-against. His 18 home runs allowed are the most in the majors.

Patrick Wisdom has struck out 77 times in 202 plate appearances. Luis Arraez has struck out 12 times in 248 plate appearances.

Juan Gonzalez had 157 RBIs and 46 walks in 1998. Ted Williams had 159 RBIs and 162 walks in 1949.

Henry Aaron and Willie Mays each had 648 home runs on June 9, 1972. “Hammerin’ Hank” moved ahead of the “Say Hey Kid” on the all-time homer list — only Babe Ruth had more — the following day.

On today’s date in 1985, Von Hayes hit a solo home run and a grand slam as part of a nine-run first inning as the Philadelphia Phillies routed the New York Mets 26-7 at Veteran’s Stadium. The score was 16-0 after two innings.

On today’s date in 1979, Bob Stanley threw a complete-game four-hitter as the Boston Red Sox beat the Kansas City Royals 4-0 in 10 innings. The losing pitcher was Steve Busby, who allowed two hits in nine-and-a-third innings.

Players born on today’s date include Wheezer Dell, who went a combined 19-23 with a 2.55 ERA while pitching for the St. Louis Cardinals in 1912, and the Brooklyn Robbins from 1915-1917. The Tuscarora native was the first major-league player born in the state of Nevada.

Also born on today’s date was Pop Joy, a first baseman who played for the Union Association’s Washington Nationals in 1884. The Washington DC native had 28 hits — all singles — in 130 at-bats.


Elly De La Cruz Impresses in Cincinnati Debut

Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

The prospect ranks are as high as an elephant’s eye at Castellini Farms. The Reds may have entered this rebuilding cycle with all the grace of an angry cat trying to get a cereal box off its head (as opposed to the awkward toe-dipping of the last go-around), but through trades and their own scouting, they’ve accumulated an impressive amount of talent in the minors. By our in-progress farm system rankings, only the Baltimore Orioles place higher for the 2023 season. Mean ol’ Grandpa ZiPS agrees; the Reds had seven prospects on the preseason ZiPS Top 100, a total that trailed only the Guardians and the O’s. Baltimore and Cincinnati combined seem to have about 80% of the shortstop prospects in baseball.

Whether you go by human or machine, no Red ranked more highly this winter than Elly De La Cruz, who was no. 6 (60 FV) on the prospect team’s Top 100 and no. 15 on the ZiPS list. After an impressive 2021 full-season debut, De La Cruz cranked things up a notch in 2022, hitting 28 homers and slugging .586 combined across High- and Double-A despite only being 20 years old. Questions still remain about his long-term defensive position, but his bat has proved to be even more potent for Triple-A Louisville, as he hit 12 home runs in a mere 38 games and is already two-thirds of the way to last year’s walk total. He’s responsible for the International League’s ERA going up by nearly half a run a game from 2022! OK, I made that last bit up, but you had to actually think about it for a full second before you smelled burning khaki. Read the rest of this entry »


Joey Votto Talks Hitting

Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

Joey Votto is nearing the end of a career that should land him in the Hall of Fame. Three months shy of his 40th birthday, the Toronto native has played 16 seasons, all with the Cincinnati Reds, and has a career .297/.412/.513 slash line to go with a 146 wRC+. A six-time All-Star and former NL MVP, he has led the senior circuit in OBP seven times, and in walks six times. Moreover — this amid criticism from the segment of the Cincinnati fanbase who feels he is too passive at the plate — his left-handed stroke has produced 2,093 hits, including 453 doubles and 342 home runs.

Currently on a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville, Votto is recovering from rotator cuff and biceps surgery and has yet to play in a big league game this year. He sat down to talk hitting when the Reds visited Fenway Park last week.

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David Laurila: Is hitting easy, or is it hard?

Joey Votto: “Well, it’s the only thing I’ve done, so I don’t have much to compare it to. I failed my math exam. High school math may be more difficult than major league hitting.” Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Tampa Bay Rookie Taj Bradley is Very Much Chill

Taj Bradley has had an up-and-down rookie season with the Rays, but only in terms of promotions and demotions. The 22-year-old right-hander has twice been optioned to Triple-A, and three times he’s been summoned back to the big leagues. He might be in Tampa Bay to stay. Over six starts comprising 30 innings, Bradley has logged a 3.62 ERA and a 2.82 FIP, with wins in three of five decisions. Moreover, he’s fanned 42 batters while issuing just five free passes.

The level of composure he’s displayed belies his age and inexperience. While many players performing on the big stage for the first time have a fast heartbeat, his has been borderline bradycardia. In a word, Bradley is chill.

“I’m not the kind of person to get too caught up in anything,” the 2018 fifth-round pick out of Stone Mountain, Georgia’s Redan High School told me on Friday. “If I were to meet a celebrity, or pitch in a big game, I wouldn’t be making too much of a moment of it. I always downplay things. I mean, you do get your nerves, but I don’t build it up. Someone might say, ‘Oh, you made your debut,’ or ‘Oh, you got a win against the Red Sox,’ but I just go about my day.”

Bradley’s debut, which came at home in a spot start against Boston on April 12, did elicit emotions. Being unflappable may be in his DNA, but it’s not as though he’s an unfeeling cyborg. Nearly two months later, the game remains a blur. Read the rest of this entry »


Cincinnati’s Spencer Steer Believes in Contact and Backspinning Line Drives

Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Spencer Steer is emerging as a solid big league hitter. One of three prospects acquired by the Cincinnati Reds from the Minnesota Twins at last August’s trade deadline in exchange for Tyler MahleChristian Encarnacion-Strand and Steve Hajjar were the others — Steer is slashing .289/.356/.498 with a 124 wRC+ over 225 plate appearances. One year after homering 23 times between two minor league levels, and twice more after a September call-up, he’s gone deep eight times in 2023.

Eric Longenhagen has been bullish on his bat. Back in January, our lead prospect analyst wrote that the 25-year-old corner infielder has “a well-rounded hit/patience/power toolkit,” adding that he is “a good hitter who will stabilize an infield spot in Cincinnati for the next half decade or so.” Longenhagen ranked the 2019 third round pick out of the University of Oregon no. 2 in Cincinnati’s system; he was no. 47 on the preseason Top 100.

Steer sat down to talk hitting prior to Tuesday’s game at Fenway Park. Read the rest of this entry »


Jake Fraley Keeps Coming Through

Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

Win Probability Added isn’t a great measure of true talent – it’s influenced by too many factors outside a player’s control – but ultimately, the best players tend to have the highest WPAs. Last season, AL MVP Aaron Judge led all position players in WPA, while NL MVP Paul Goldschmidt finished on top in the Senior Circuit. The year before, it was AL MVP Shohei Ohtani who finished first overall and NL MVP Bryce Harper who paced the National League. Even in the early days of the 2023 season, the WPA leaderboard is a veritable who’s who of superstars and MVP contenders. Yordan Alvarez leads all position players with 2.42 WPA, while Ronald Acuña Jr. leads the NL with 2.18. Following closely behind in the AL is Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with 2.12 WPA to his name.

After those three, only one other hitter has a WPA above 2.00 this year, and his name is rarely listed among the likes of Alvarez, Acuña, and Guerrero. In what will be his first full season, 27-year-old Jake Fraley has already notched 2.10 WPA for the Cincinnati Reds. Read the rest of this entry »


Jonathan India Is Bouncing Back in an Unexpected Way

Jonathan India
The Cincinnati Enquirer

Jonathan India started his career with a bang. In 2021, the Cincinnati second baseman put up a 120 wRC+ and 3.0 WAR over 150 games, good enough to snag National League Rookie of the Year honors. Last year, a hamstring injury limited him to just 103 games, and he struggled to a 95 wRC+ at the plate. He looked like a natural bounce back candidate coming into the 2023 season, and here he is bouncing back. After a big day on Sunday, India’s .306/.397/.460 slash line consists of three career-best figures. His underlying metrics are also better than ever in a host of categories.

Jonathan India – Year-Over-Year Stats
Season Chase% Whiff% BB% K% GB/FB Exit Velocity HardHit% wRC+
2021 25 22.8 11.3% 22.3% 1.32 87.6 38.1% 120
2022 27.9 21 7.2% 21.8% 1.14 85.1 28.8% 95
2023 22.1 14.3 11.6% 14.4% 1.19 90.2 43.8% 130

Let’s start with plate discipline. India is chasing less than ever, whiffing less than ever, walking more, and striking out way less. Those developments are all — and please excuse the inside baseball jargon here — very good. His chase rate has either improved or held steady against every pitch type except for sinkers, which have been something of an Achilles’ heel this year. He’s hitting them harder, but 71% of the sinkers he’s put in play have been groundballs, up from 54% in previous years.

India is reaching base more and hitting the ball much harder. After the previous paragraph, you might assume that his increased exit velocity has come from hitting more pitches in the zone, but the difference is smaller than you might think: 87% of his balls in play came on pitches in the zone, as opposed to 84% in 2021. Further, a close look at his batting line reveals something interesting: Although he’s hitting the ball harder and his BABIP is at a career high, his production on balls in play is still a ways off from where it was in 2021.

Jonathan India – Balls in Play
Season BABIP wOBA xwOBA
2021 .326 .413 .395
2022 .305 .357 .339
2023 .343 .390 .366

Again, this is not necessarily a bad thing; walking more and striking out less has so far made this a worthwhile tradeoff. But it’s worth exploring why India’s newfound exit velocity hasn’t translated into as much power as we might expect. He’s currently running a .153 ISO, closer to the mark he put up last year than the .190 he posted in 2021. His barrel rate is likewise between his 2021 and ’22 figures, and his HR/FB is at a career low. Read the rest of this entry »


A Small Top 100 Prospects Update, Headlined by Ethan Salas and Andrew Abbott

Let’s dive right into a few incremental changes to the Top 100 prospects list, as well as a couple of non-Top 100 additions.

Cardinals lefty Matthew Liberatore has had a velo spike — he’s frequently reaching back for 96 and 97 when he wants, and his fastball is averaging 94.5 mph. That’s up about a tick and a half from his average in 2022, when he ran an ERA well north of 5.00 across about 150 combined innings split mostly between Triple-A and seven big league starts. Libby has had frequent enough velocity fluctuations during his time as a prospect to anticipate it will be a thing he deals with throughout his career, but his repertoire depth and the long-haul projection for his command will enable him to compete even when he doesn’t have his peak stuff. That’s largely why he was kept on the Top 100 this past offseason even though he had a poor 2022.

His FV isn’t changing in light of the spike (again, it’s fair to bet Liberatore’s peak velo will continue to yo-yo), but his report has been updated and he’s sliding up about 20 spots, from the very back of the list (where he sat with other bounce-back candidates) into the part of it that includes the other major league ready fourth starters. He’s probably better than Jake Woodford is right now, but St. Louis would be burning Woodford’s last option to swap them one-for-one. Woodford was effective in relief last year and could shift into that role again while a current ‘pen occupant is sent down instead, but the Cardinals don’t have an obvious candidate for that, as their big league relievers are largely either pitching well or are out of options. Read the rest of this entry »


Sonny Gray on Evolving as a Pitcher

Sonny Gray
Eric Canha-USA TODAY Sports

Sonny Gray has been one of baseball’s best pitchers so far this season. Over five starts, the Minnesota Twins right-hander has fanned 34 batters and allowed just 20 hits and two runs in 29 innings. His ERA is a Lilliputian 0.62.

Gray is no flash in the pan. Now 33 years old and in his 11th big league season, the Vanderbilt University product is a two-time All-Star with a 3.50 ERA and a 3.54 FIP over 252 career appearances, all but nine as a starter. Originally with the Oakland Athletics, he subsequently pitched for the New York Yankees and the Cincinnati Reds before coming to the Twins Cities prior to last season.

How as the veteran hurler evolved over the years? Gray addressed that question when the Twins visited Fenway Park last week.

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David Laurila: How have you evolved as a pitcher? Outside of being older, are you basically the same guy that broke into the big leagues in 2013?

Sonny Gray: “I would say no. As far as pitch types, I still throw the same curveball, that hasn’t changed, but everything else has kind of evolved and adapted.

“For the first four to five years, it was kind of, ‘Go out there and do it.’ At the time, 95–96 [mph] was a lot of velo, and you could just beat guys with that. If you had any type of breaking pitch, all the better. So for those first four to five years, it was kind of just that. I threw a two-seam and a four-seam and then a curveball.

“Everyone would say that one of the reasons my fastball was so hard to hit is that they didn’t know which way it was going to go. My four-seam tended to cut a little bit, and the two-seam would go the other way. Then I got traded to New York [in July 2017]. That was the first time I tried to change a little bit. I’d always lived down and away, bottom of the zone, and now I was hearing, ‘Hey, throw your four-seam at the top of the zone.’ That was a little foreign to me. I tried it, I did some things, and didn’t have immediate success with it.

“That’s the first time I was adapting. It was the first era of the spin stuff. It was new to everyone back then, and we were figuring out that spinning four-seams were good [pitches]. I don’t think everyone had it together that everyone’s four-seam is different. At the time, it was just ‘Spinning four-seams at the top are great.” My four-seam tends to cut a little bit, it doesn’t have that [ride], so while I had some success, overall it didn’t go well.” Read the rest of this entry »