Austin Wells is well-regarded, albeit with a lot to prove on the defensive side of the ball. There’s little doubt that he can mash. No. 15 on our recently-released New York Yankees Top Prospects list, Wells went deep 16 times in 469 plate appearances last year between Low-A Tampa and High-A Hudson Valley. His left-handed stroke produced a solid .264/.390/.476 slash line, while his wRC+ was an every-bit-as-sturdy 135.

Wells is built to bash — he packs 220 pounds on a 6-foot-2 frame — and his size is also befits a backstop. That’s what he wants to be. Asked about his positional future during his stint in the Arizona Fall League, Wells shared that he’s caught since he was six years old, and plans to continue doing so. Since being drafted 28th-overall in 2020 out of the University of Arizona, all 70 of his defensive games have been spent behind behind the dish. Moreover, “there haven’t been any conversations about playing anywhere else.”

Wells was preparing to play in the Fall Stars Game when I caught up to him, and the first thing I wanted to address were the nuances of his craft. I began by asking what role analytics play for a young, minor-league catcher. Read the rest of this entry »

José Cruz Sr. had an outstanding career. Playing for three teams — most notably the Houston Astros — from 1970-1988, the Puerto Rico-born outfielder logged 2,251 hits while putting up a 119 wRC+ and 50.8 WAR. As his grandson, Detroit Tigers infield prospect Trei Cruz put it, the family patriarch may not be a Hall of Famer, but he is in “The Hall of Very Good.”

Moreover, the father of 1997-2008 big-leaguer José Cruz Jr. is a 74-year-old in a younger man’s body.

“He has more energy than anybody I’ve ever met in my life,” explained Trei, who calls Houston home and is No. 14 on our 2022 Tigers Top Prospect list. “I actually work with him, every single day. He throws BP for hours, and it’s some of the best left-handed BP you’ll ever see. He’s got a lot of life in his arm — he’ll really chuck it in there — and along with gas he’ll mix in sliders and changeups. Guys actually come to hit with me, because his BP is so good. He’s amazing, man. I don’t know how he does it.”

The smooth left-handed-stroke that produced 650 extra-base hits is still there, as well. The septuagenarian may not be able to catch up to mid-90s heat anymore, but he hasn’t forgotten what to do with a bat in his hands. According to Trei, his abuelo isn’t shy about standing in the box when the situation calls for it. Read the rest of this entry »

The most recent of my “Who Was Better” polls on Twitter featured Dale Murphy and Ken Singleton, and while it drew only a modicum of interest — only 95 people cast votes — the results were nonetheless telling. Murphy won in resounding fashion — 76.8% to Singleton’s 23.2% — and it’s unlikely that the percentages would have been markedly different with a more-robust sample size. Murphy is a two-time MVP who made seven All-Star teams and was once on a Hall of Fame trajectory. Singleton made three All-Star teams and received nary a vote in his one year on the ballot.

But was Murphy actually better than the less-ballyhooed Singleton, who broke into the big leagues with the New York Mets before excelling with the Montreal Expos and the Baltimore Orioles? Let’s look at a few of their numbers, keeping in mind that Murphy played in 2,180 games, Singleton in 2.082 games.

Murphy: .265/.346/.469, 2,111 hits, 398 HR, .357 wOBA, 119 wRC+, 44.3 WAR.
Singleton: .282/.388/.436, 2,029 hits, 246 HR,.371 wOBA, 134 wRC+, 44.4 WAR.

Peaks matter, so here is the best eight-year stretch for both: Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 957

This week on the show, David Laurila is joined by Dan Dickerson, radio voice of the Detroit Tigers who last joined us back in episode 892, and Don Gonyea, a long-time political correspondent for National Public Radio and a diehard Tigers fan in his own right.

Dan and Don share stories of their decades-long friendship, as well as the baseball they have followed and covered. They reminisce about Mark Fidrych and “the summer of The Bird,” getting to know the legendary Ernie Harwell, following sports and meeting fans while working around the globe, and the fateful day of Armando Galarraga’s near-perfect game.

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Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Detroit Tigers. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as our own observations. This is the second year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the numbered prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The son of three-time All-Star and two-time American League home run leader Cecil Fielder, Prince Fielder was practically bred for the major league spotlight. He grew up as his father’s baseball sidekick, memorably photographed as a six-year-old holding up one of the home run balls from the night that his father hit his 50th and 51st shots of the 1990 season, and then filmed striking out dad in a McDonalds commercial as an eight-year-old, and receiving tips on the finer points of baseball superstitions — and gravy — at age 11. The food-related photo opportunities lent themselves to easy potshots given the bulky physiques of both father and son, but when 12-year-old Prince used a wooden bat to hit upper deck home runs in batting practice at Tiger Stadium, served up by Detroit third base coach Terry Francona and witnessed by legendary broadcaster Ernie Harwell and Hall of Famers Alan Trammell and Al Kaline, his royal lineage as a slugger came into focus.

“You can’t ever say that you look at a kid that age and say that you know he’s going to hit 40 or 50 home runs someday, but Prince was unbelievable,” said Kaline years later. “Here’s a 12-year-old kid commonly hitting homers at a big league ballpark.”

In a 12-year career cut short by recurring neck problems, the younger Fielder made six All-Star teams, finished in the top five of MVP voting three times, and won a home run title himself. Not only are he and his father the only such combination to win home run titles, but each slugger ended his career with exactly 319 homers. Along the way, the younger Fielder played a major part in turning the Brewers into contenders, landed one of the largest contracts in major league history, and proved to be quite the entertainer. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule, and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Torii Hunter could go get it. Fluid and graceful while patrolling center field, he was renowned for his leaping, acrobatic catches and his willingness to sacrifice his body. He made a strong enough impression upon those who watched him that he won nine Gold Gloves during his 19-year career, more than all but three center fielders, namely Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., and Andruw Jones. Hunter earned the nickname “Spider-Man” for his ability to climb outfield walls to steal home runs — something he did more than just about anybody else during his career — though one attempt to do so at Fenway Park left him with a broken ankle, and another a concussion.

“I’ll do anything to get that little white ball. I’ll put my life on the line,” Hunter told Sports Illustrated’s Albert Chen in 2005, sounding very much like the football player he was during his high school days in Pine Bluff, Arkansas. Hunter rose from difficult circumstances in Pine Bluff, including a father who was addicted to crack cocaine and friends who fell into the dead-end life of drugs, guns, and gangs. His athleticism helped him escape, though when he entered professional baseball as a first-round pick of the Twins in 1993, his talent was more raw than most. Read the rest of this entry »

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2022 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

The road to becoming a reliever, even a Hall of Fame one, is rarely a straight one. Dennis Eckersley spent a dozen years starting in the majors, making two All-Star teams and throwing a no-hitter. Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Rich Gossage, and Lee Smith were starting pitchers in the minors, and each took detours to the rotation during their major league careers. Mariano Rivera was an amateur shortstop who reached the majors as a starter. Trevor Hoffman began his professional career as a shortstop before switching to pitching after two seasons.

Like Hoffman, Joe Nathan began his pro career as a shortstop, but after one rough season of pro ball, the Giants concluded that his future lay on the mound — a notion so jarring to the 21-year-old Nathan that he chose to step away and focus on completing his college degree. Even after committing himself to pitching, injuries and ineffectiveness prevented him from finding a permanent home in a major league bullpen until his age-28 season, but once he did, he excelled, making six All-Star teams, helping his teams to six postseason appearances, and saving at least 30 games in a season nine times and at least 40 four times. From 2004 to ’13, only Rivera notched more saves or compiled more WAR, and only two other relievers struck out more hitters — and that was with Nathan missing a full year due to Tommy John surgery (Rivera missed most of a year in that span as well).

With Hoffman, Rivera, and Smith elected in 2018 and ’19, the standards for a Hall of Fame reliever have become a bit more fleshed out, and current candidate Billy Wagner is trending toward election. To these eyes, Nathan wouldn’t be out of place in joining the small handful of enshrinees, but there’s no guarantee he’ll even draw the 5% needed to stay on the ballot. At the very least, he deserves a longer look.

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

ZiPS doesn’t usually catch me completely by surprise, but the Tigers’ 2022 offensive projections are, as a group, a solid step or two ahead of what I expected. In fact, the difference is enough to make me think a bit more positively about exactly where the Tigers are in the American League Central. Detroit didn’t hit all that well in 2021, but they were a galaxy ahead of a ’19 season when they literally scored about 200 fewer runs than the average offense. Last season, they almost clawed their way to the middle of the pack, and that was without really getting all that much good fortune. Sure, they got a very good year out of Jeimer Candelario and Akil Baddoo seemingly came out of nowhere, but nobody really hit a level of performance that looks like it will be a challenge to repeat. Read the rest of this entry »

Ryan Kreidler isn’t the same hitter that Eric Longenhagen and Kevin Goldstein described when they put together our Detroit Tigers Top Prospects List last spring. The 24-year-old (as of last month) shortstop no longer possesses a “conservative, contact-oriented approach coupled with limited raw power.” Thanks to remaking his mindset and mechanics, Kreidler crushed 22 home runs this season while slashing a solid .270/.349/.454. Making those numbers all the more impressive is that the 2019 fourth-rounder out of UCLA put them up between Double-A Erie and Triple-A Toledo in his first full professional season.

His collegiate and short-season output had been that of a contact-oriented hitter. Kreider went deep 16 times in his three years as a Bruin, and just twice in 257 plate appearances with the New York Penn-League’s Connecticut Tigers in 2019. Dissatisfied with the dismal level of production, he went back to the drawing board.

“I wasn’t hitting the ball in the air very much,” said Kreidler, who according to Longenhagen and Goldstein lacked athleticism in the batter’s box. “I made some changes over [the 2019] offseason, then got a chance to work on them when I was home during COVID.”

The Davis, California native turned to Los Angeles-based hitting instructor Doug Latta for guidance. Read the rest of this entry »