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2019 ZiPS Projections – Detroit Tigers

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Detroit Tigers.

Batters

2014 sure seems a long time ago when you look at these offensive projections, doesn’t it? What’s especially troubling when you consider them is that as a whole is there just isn’t all that much upside. It wasn’t so long ago that Miguel Cabrera was hitting at an All-Star level, but the reality is that he’s only played in 168 games over the last two seasons and hit an un-Miggy-like .260/.344/.410. It’s good news of a sort that his back wasn’t one of the injury culprits in 2018, but for a 36-year-old (in April) still just a year removed from having two herniated discs, I may be searching for good news.

Nicholas Castellanos has developed into a very good hitter, but like his predecessor, J.D. Martinez, he’s one who really shouldn’t play the field. It was a good idea to give Castellanos a chance in the outfield, but it turns out he’s not much better as an outfielder than he was as a third baseman. If the Tigers want to win a few more games in 2019, I’d just stick him at designated hitter. That is, assuming he’s not traded in the next few weeks as he hopes. Castellanos is likely the only player on the roster who ought to be a trade target; Cabrera’s contract makes him unmovable without eating an obscene amount of cash and the Tigers shouldn’t deal Jeimer Candelario.

Otherwise, the amount of offensive talent, with the exception of Castellanos and Candelario, is almost shockingly scant. With Jose Iglesias not counting since he’s a free agent, minor-league defensive wizard Jake Rogers projects as the fourth-most valuable Tiger given a whole season of play. It’s unusual for a replacement-level offensive player to project so well. ZiPS projected the Marlins and Orioles to have, respectively, nine and 10 position players in their organizations worth 0.6 WAR or better, a murderers’ row compared to Detroit’s four.

ZiPS could, of course, be wrong. The Steamer projections are far more positive. If you’re a fan of the Tigers, that’s the system you’re hoping will be right this year, at least when it comes to the starting lineup.

Pitchers

This is a bit of a flip from the batters, in that ZiPS likes the pitching more than Steamer does. Now, the top-end projections in the rotation don’t even sniff at All-Star level, but there’s a lot more of interest here than there is with the hitters. ZiPS projects a rebound season from Michael Fulmer, but one in which he looks like a solid No. 2 starter rather than the ace the Tigers believed they had after his 3.06 ERA, AL Rookie of the Year debut in 2016. Rating Fulmer’s abilities too highly is what made Detroit so reluctant to trade him absent an enormous return, and I still believe they’ll come to regret it. Don’t get me wrong, Fulmer still has trade value, but as a good-not-great pitcher who still hasn’t proven to be much of a workhorse, the Tigers would get less now than they would have after 2016 or 2017.

There’s a bit of a trap here for Detroit. With Matt Moore, Tyson Ross, and Jordan Zimmermann under contract, to go along with Fulmer and Matt Boyd, the Tigers could very well start the season without any of the mildly interesting prospects and hangers-ons they have haunting Comerica Park roaming the field. I’m not even talking about the organization’s top four or five pitching prospects, which seem to be some combination of Casey Mize, Franklin Perez, Matt Manning, Beau Burrows, and Alex Faedo (stay-tuned to Kiley McDaniel and Eric Longenhagen for more on this than this brief little writeup). I’m talking about Daniel Norris; the Tigers really need to figure out whether or not he is a bust rather than let another rebuilding team do so. I’m talking about exploring Blaine Hardy’s potential as a starter more. Matt Hall isn’t a top prospect, but his curve keeps getting batters out as he moves up the ladder and he was excellent in 10 starts for Triple-A Toledo. Even an extended look at a non-prospect like Spencer Turnbull strikes me as more productive than the current rotation plan; there’s little flip potential in Moore, Ross and Zimmermann.

You don’t find Corey Klubers or Dallas Keuchels without taking chances on lesser prospects and non-prospects. Being able to get an extended look at these kinds of players is one of the advantages a rebuilding team has over contenders.

Bench and Prospects

The general hope is that the pitching will largely take care of itself. There’s a lot of truth to this; if two of the five pitching prospects named in the last section are good major leaguers, the Tigers are a long way towards becoming contenders again. The chances of building an offense from the minor leagues, on the other hand, look quite low, even if, for the sake of argument, we accept that Christin Stewart meets Steamer’s significantly higher expectations. Daz Cameron has very high variance in the projections, enough to make him a far better prospect than one would initially think from his fairly ugly 2019 projection, but after that, the quality drops off tremendously. Now, a projection system doesn’t really have much to say — yet — about players with limited professional experience like Kody Clemens or Parker Meadows, but every team has several prospects they can say that about. Detroit needs some real wins from the position players or when the pitching is playoff-ready, they’ll likely have to write some big checks to assemble a lineup to match.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Batters – Counting Stats
Player B Age PO G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS
Nicholas Castellanos R 27 RF 156 596 72 165 38 6 27 91 45 151 2 3
Jeimer Candelario B 25 3B 146 540 72 127 33 3 17 62 59 151 2 1
Miguel Cabrera R 36 1B 106 389 47 107 20 1 15 58 52 86 0 1
Jose Iglesias R 29 SS 131 458 50 121 27 2 5 42 22 53 12 6
Jake Rogers R 24 C 99 372 44 74 15 2 12 43 32 126 6 4
JaCoby Jones R 27 CF 128 451 53 93 20 4 12 43 30 165 14 5
Christin Stewart L 25 LF 135 500 68 116 23 3 23 76 55 151 1 1
Kaleb Cowart B 27 3B 128 438 51 100 25 3 10 49 34 118 11 3
Ronny Rodriguez R 27 SS 124 467 52 118 21 3 14 55 18 101 8 6
Gordon Beckham R 32 2B 114 371 41 87 18 1 7 37 31 63 3 2
John Hicks R 29 C 94 323 37 77 15 1 9 36 19 90 3 2
Grayson Greiner R 26 C 86 296 30 61 13 1 7 31 28 92 0 0
Niko Goodrum B 27 2B 123 435 52 100 22 3 14 50 36 135 12 5
Willi Castro B 22 SS 134 524 58 126 24 3 10 45 26 126 16 7
Jordy Mercer R 32 SS 126 432 45 105 21 2 8 45 37 87 2 1
Hector Sanchez B 29 C 55 152 18 36 8 0 6 23 10 38 0 0
Mikie Mahtook R 29 LF 128 445 52 102 19 5 14 52 30 125 7 3
Dustin Peterson R 24 LF 115 440 47 100 24 1 10 46 31 116 2 1
Kade Scivicque R 26 C 89 329 33 75 13 1 6 29 18 73 0 0
Brandon Dixon R 27 1B 121 391 45 88 20 2 14 47 23 137 10 4
Edwin Espinal R 25 1B 115 416 42 100 19 0 8 41 27 82 0 0
Chad Huffman R 34 1B 93 309 39 68 15 2 11 36 29 86 2 1
Bobby Wilson R 36 C 63 189 17 36 7 0 4 20 13 54 0 0
Jacob Robson L 24 CF 116 460 54 104 21 3 9 42 45 147 12 8
Kody Eaves L 25 3B 103 372 39 74 16 3 8 35 31 121 5 4
Jason Krizan L 30 2B 112 410 45 97 19 2 8 41 36 68 4 3
Dawel Lugo R 24 2B 148 593 60 148 26 4 8 54 18 88 7 3
Harold Castro L 25 3B 116 413 38 100 14 2 3 27 10 80 8 6
Pete Kozma R 31 SS 126 347 32 67 16 1 2 23 19 79 6 3
Victor Martinez B 40 DH 111 399 29 100 16 0 7 45 28 50 0 0
Troy Montgomery L 24 CF 102 368 41 79 12 3 5 29 41 106 10 8
Daz Cameron R 22 CF 129 498 56 110 23 6 9 48 38 152 20 13
Sergio Alcantara B 22 SS 126 486 46 111 16 3 2 29 34 108 9 8
Cam Gibson L 25 LF 112 404 44 78 12 4 10 38 35 133 13 8
Josh Lester L 24 1B 121 462 51 100 22 3 14 53 35 131 2 1
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 34 C 71 210 20 32 7 1 6 21 24 91 1 0
Victor Reyes L 24 LF 133 416 51 101 15 5 3 30 16 89 14 5
Brady Policelli R 24 C 98 358 34 71 16 3 7 30 22 100 12 9
Derek Hill R 23 CF 100 352 33 66 9 3 4 25 27 125 24 12
Daniel Woodrow L 24 RF 96 371 36 86 13 2 2 25 24 93 15 10
Will Maddox L 27 2B 108 430 40 101 14 2 3 30 19 93 8 8

Batters – Rate Stats
Player BA OBP SLG OPS+ ISO BABIP RC/27 Def WAR No. 1 Comp
Nicholas Castellanos .277 .330 .497 120 .220 .330 6.0 -9 1.9 Mike Brown
Jeimer Candelario .235 .315 .402 93 .167 .296 4.5 2 1.7 Kory Casto
Miguel Cabrera .275 .361 .447 118 .172 .319 6.0 0 1.5 Pedro Guerrero
Jose Iglesias .264 .305 .365 81 .100 .290 4.1 5 1.3 Gary DiSarcina
Jake Rogers .199 .269 .347 65 .148 .265 3.1 8 0.7 Danny Ardoin
JaCoby Jones .206 .265 .348 64 .142 .296 3.2 10 0.5 Jason Robertson
Christin Stewart .232 .314 .428 98 .196 .285 4.7 -5 0.5 Kevin Barker
Kaleb Cowart .228 .285 .368 75 .139 .290 3.8 3 0.5 Mike Turgeon
Ronny Rodriguez .253 .281 .400 82 .148 .295 4.0 -3 0.4 Ronny Cedeno
Gordon Beckham .235 .298 .345 74 .111 .266 3.6 3 0.4 Mike Bordick
John Hicks .238 .281 .375 76 .136 .304 3.7 -1 0.3 Damian Miller
Grayson Greiner .206 .274 .328 63 .122 .274 3.1 4 0.3 Matt Garrick
Niko Goodrum .230 .292 .391 83 .161 .301 4.0 -5 0.2 Sean Berry
Willi Castro .240 .281 .355 71 .115 .299 3.6 0 0.2 Greg Gagne
Jordy Mercer .243 .307 .356 80 .113 .288 3.9 -3 0.1 Charlie Hayes
Hector Sanchez .237 .287 .408 85 .171 .278 4.1 -3 0.1 Joe Oliver
Mikie Mahtook .229 .287 .389 81 .160 .288 3.9 2 0.0 Nick Gorneault
Dustin Peterson .227 .284 .355 72 .127 .287 3.5 6 -0.1 Ken Weislak
Kade Scivicque .228 .275 .328 63 .100 .276 3.2 0 -0.2 Gary Bennett
Brandon Dixon .225 .271 .394 77 .169 .308 3.8 4 -0.2 Pat Rooney
Edwin Espinal .240 .289 .344 71 .103 .282 3.5 7 -0.3 Jeremy West
Chad Huffman .220 .302 .388 85 .168 .269 4.1 -4 -0.4 Reed Secrist
Bobby Wilson .190 .244 .291 44 .101 .244 2.4 1 -0.4 Tony Pena
Jacob Robson .226 .296 .343 73 .117 .313 3.5 -5 -0.5 Andy Tomberlin
Kody Eaves .199 .263 .323 58 .124 .272 2.8 4 -0.5 Jim Mason
Jason Krizan .237 .296 .351 75 .115 .266 3.6 -7 -0.5 Chuck Hiller
Dawel Lugo .250 .273 .347 67 .098 .282 3.4 -1 -0.6 Steven Singleton
Harold Castro .242 .261 .308 54 .065 .294 2.8 6 -0.7 Scott Candelaria
Pete Kozma .193 .240 .262 36 .069 .244 2.1 8 -0.7 Ray Oyler
Victor Martinez .251 .302 .343 75 .093 .272 3.7 0 -0.7 Ray Knight
Troy Montgomery .215 .295 .304 64 .090 .288 2.9 -2 -0.7 Mark Budzinski
Daz Cameron .221 .284 .345 70 .124 .300 3.3 -5 -0.8 Michael Saunders
Sergio Alcantara .228 .279 .286 54 .058 .290 2.6 2 -0.8 Eddy Martinez
Cam Gibson .193 .262 .317 56 .124 .261 2.7 7 -0.9 Duane Singleton
Josh Lester .216 .273 .368 72 .152 .271 3.5 2 -0.9 Kevin Reimer
Jarrod Saltalamacchia .152 .241 .281 41 .129 .230 2.2 -4 -1.0 George Mitterwald
Victor Reyes .243 .272 .325 61 .082 .302 3.2 1 -1.2 Nathan Haynes
Brady Policelli .198 .252 .318 53 .120 .255 2.5 -5 -1.2 Jon Aceves
Derek Hill .188 .250 .264 40 .077 .278 2.2 1 -1.4 Yuber Rodriguez
Daniel Woodrow .232 .279 .294 56 .062 .304 2.7 1 -1.5 Brent Bish
Will Maddox .235 .270 .298 54 .063 .293 2.6 -6 -1.9 Freddie Benavides

Pitchers – Counting Stats
Player T Age W L ERA G GS IP H ER HR BB SO
Michael Fulmer R 26 9 8 4.04 26 26 142.7 140 64 17 41 113
Matt Boyd L 28 10 10 4.47 30 30 159.0 160 79 23 50 136
Blaine Hardy L 32 5 4 3.84 42 11 84.3 85 36 9 23 66
Daniel Norris L 26 7 6 4.40 24 21 106.3 108 52 13 45 99
Drew VerHagen R 28 6 5 4.24 47 11 93.3 93 44 10 35 76
Joe Jimenez R 24 5 3 3.50 68 0 61.7 54 24 5 23 70
Spencer Turnbull R 26 7 7 4.77 25 24 117.0 121 62 13 55 90
Matt Manning R 21 7 7 4.66 22 22 102.3 100 53 10 64 92
Matt Hall L 25 6 6 4.75 36 17 115.7 118 61 14 57 99
Tyson Ross R 32 7 7 4.68 25 20 117.3 121 61 13 53 88
Jordan Zimmermann R 33 7 8 4.83 24 24 126.7 142 68 22 29 92
Beau Burrows R 22 8 10 5.02 26 26 123.7 134 69 17 57 91
Tyler Alexander L 24 7 8 5.07 26 24 138.3 169 78 24 24 74
Alex Wilson R 32 3 2 3.88 57 0 58.0 59 25 6 14 37
Shane Greene R 30 5 4 4.09 64 0 61.7 59 28 7 22 59
Matt Moore L 30 7 8 5.06 33 19 126.3 139 71 19 47 99
Warwick Saupold R 29 5 5 4.79 42 9 88.3 99 47 10 36 54
Louis Coleman R 33 3 2 4.14 54 0 54.3 53 25 5 26 46
Zac Reininger R 26 3 3 4.33 55 0 70.7 74 34 8 25 53
Zac Houston R 24 1 1 4.15 44 0 52.0 43 24 5 32 62
Gregory Soto L 24 7 8 5.18 24 23 104.3 106 60 7 85 78
John Schreiber R 25 5 4 4.19 46 0 53.7 53 25 6 20 43
Joe Navilhon R 25 5 4 4.31 35 1 54.3 56 26 8 14 46
Anthony Castro R 24 6 8 5.21 24 22 112.3 126 65 12 61 65
Francisco Liriano L 35 7 9 5.06 26 23 121.0 125 68 18 61 102
Alex Faedo R 23 7 8 5.23 24 24 108.3 127 63 18 40 71
Buck Farmer R 28 4 4 4.50 70 1 72.0 73 36 9 34 60
Victor Alcantara R 26 4 4 4.56 56 1 75.0 79 38 8 33 53
Kyle Funkhouser R 25 4 6 5.16 18 18 83.7 90 48 12 45 66
Caleb Thielbar L 32 4 3 4.20 37 0 45.0 48 21 5 12 30
Logan Shore R 24 4 5 5.20 18 18 88.3 104 51 15 23 52
Daniel Stumpf L 28 3 3 4.35 62 0 51.7 53 25 7 18 46
Kevin Comer R 26 3 3 4.58 47 1 57.0 59 29 7 26 48
Reed Garrett R 26 3 3 4.50 46 0 50.0 52 25 5 24 40
A.J. Ladwig R 26 7 10 5.43 25 23 126.0 158 76 23 24 66
Eduardo Jimenez R 24 3 3 4.64 41 0 52.3 55 27 5 25 36
Nick Ramirez L 29 6 7 4.66 43 1 65.7 71 34 6 33 40
Eduardo Paredes R 24 1 1 4.76 54 0 64.3 67 34 8 28 49
Kevin Chapman L 31 2 2 4.69 35 0 40.3 41 21 4 22 35
Franklin Perez R 21 3 4 5.37 14 13 53.7 61 32 8 25 33
Chris S. Smith R 30 3 4 4.86 44 0 50.0 53 27 9 18 44
Johnny Barbato R 26 2 2 5.02 44 2 52.0 56 29 8 24 42
Josh Smoker L 30 2 3 4.89 53 0 57.0 61 31 9 25 51
Jacob Turner R 28 4 6 5.38 30 16 102.0 119 61 15 42 59
Christian Binford R 26 5 7 5.62 22 16 107.3 132 67 20 28 58
Kurt Spomer R 29 2 3 5.36 38 0 45.3 53 27 6 19 22
Paul Voelker R 26 4 5 5.52 44 1 58.7 65 36 11 25 45
Jose Manuel Fernandez L 26 3 4 5.52 55 0 62.0 64 38 9 40 50
Ryan Carpenter L 28 6 9 5.73 23 21 113.0 135 72 25 31 83
Nick Tepesch R 30 4 6 6.10 21 16 90.0 112 61 18 31 41
Phillippe Aumont R 30 2 4 6.44 26 5 50.3 55 36 11 36 43
Spenser Watkins R 26 6 9 6.19 24 17 104.7 126 72 20 51 62
Sandy Baez R 25 4 7 6.50 34 16 101.0 122 73 23 50 67

Pitchers – Rate Stats
Player TBF K/9 BB/9 HR/9 BABIP ERA+ ERA- FIP WAR No. 1 Comp
Michael Fulmer 605 7.13 2.59 1.07 .288 105 95 4.12 2.1 Chien-Ming Wang
Matt Boyd 683 7.70 2.83 1.30 .294 98 102 4.41 1.9 Chris Hammond
Blaine Hardy 357 7.04 2.45 0.96 .296 114 88 3.86 1.5 Lee Guetterman
Daniel Norris 469 8.38 3.81 1.10 .308 100 100 4.26 1.3 Brandon Claussen
Drew VerHagen 405 7.33 3.38 0.96 .296 103 97 4.17 1.2 Greg Booker
Joe Jimenez 261 10.22 3.36 0.73 .306 125 80 3.20 1.1 Josh Wahpepah
Spencer Turnbull 525 6.92 4.23 1.00 .300 92 109 4.65 1.1 Jaime Cocanower
Matt Manning 471 8.09 5.63 0.88 .302 94 106 4.70 1.1 Dick Ruthven
Matt Hall 521 7.70 4.44 1.09 .302 92 108 4.67 1.0 Bryan Clark
Tyson Ross 524 6.75 4.07 1.00 .298 91 110 4.62 0.9 Ray Moore
Jordan Zimmermann 545 6.54 2.06 1.56 .302 88 114 4.74 0.8 Mickey Weston
Beau Burrows 559 6.62 4.15 1.24 .302 87 115 5.02 0.8 Justin Sturge
Tyler Alexander 603 4.81 1.56 1.56 .306 86 116 5.01 0.8 Bobby Livingston
Alex Wilson 244 5.74 2.17 0.93 .286 113 89 4.05 0.8 Jim Brosnan
Shane Greene 265 8.61 3.21 1.02 .299 107 93 3.93 0.7 Chad Paronto
Matt Moore 560 7.05 3.35 1.35 .308 87 115 4.77 0.6 Jeff Musselman
Warwick Saupold 399 5.50 3.67 1.02 .304 91 109 4.83 0.6 Ed Klieman
Louis Coleman 242 7.62 4.31 0.83 .298 106 95 4.31 0.5 Ted Abernathy
Zac Reininger 308 6.75 3.18 1.02 .300 101 99 4.27 0.5 Jack Cassel
Zac Houston 232 10.73 5.54 0.87 .295 105 95 4.09 0.5 Brad Voyles
Gregory Soto 503 6.73 7.33 0.60 .304 85 118 5.17 0.5 Derek Thompson
John Schreiber 233 7.21 3.35 1.01 .292 105 96 4.29 0.5 Willie Mueller
Joe Navilhon 232 7.62 2.32 1.33 .298 102 98 4.31 0.5 John Doherty
Anthony Castro 522 5.21 4.89 0.96 .302 84 119 5.20 0.5 Rick Berg
Francisco Liriano 545 7.59 4.54 1.34 .298 84 119 5.03 0.5 Tommy Byrne
Alex Faedo 489 5.90 3.32 1.50 .308 84 119 5.27 0.4 Zach McClellan
Buck Farmer 321 7.50 4.25 1.13 .298 97 103 4.65 0.4 Joe Hudson
Victor Alcantara 335 6.36 3.96 0.96 .300 96 104 4.60 0.4 Hal Reniff
Kyle Funkhouser 385 7.10 4.84 1.29 .304 85 118 5.23 0.4 Rick Berg
Caleb Thielbar 193 6.00 2.40 1.00 .299 104 96 4.19 0.4 Erasmo Ramirez
Logan Shore 390 5.30 2.34 1.53 .302 84 119 5.13 0.4 Nate Cornejo
Daniel Stumpf 224 8.01 3.14 1.22 .305 101 99 4.29 0.4 John Cummings
Kevin Comer 255 7.58 4.11 1.11 .304 96 105 4.59 0.3 Mike Gardner
Reed Garrett 225 7.20 4.32 0.90 .307 94 106 4.47 0.3 Joe Hudson
A.J. Ladwig 557 4.71 1.71 1.64 .310 81 124 5.24 0.2 Heath Totten
Eduardo Jimenez 236 6.19 4.30 0.86 .299 94 106 4.62 0.2 Gary Ross
Nick Ramirez 300 5.48 4.52 0.82 .300 91 110 4.81 0.2 Jim Roland
Eduardo Paredes 287 6.85 3.92 1.12 .298 92 109 4.74 0.2 Joe Davenport
Kevin Chapman 183 7.81 4.91 0.89 .308 93 107 4.49 0.1 Randy Choate
Franklin Perez 246 5.53 4.19 1.34 .299 82 122 5.42 0.1 Jesus Silva
Chris S. Smith 220 7.92 3.24 1.62 .301 90 111 4.99 0.1 Steve Mintz
Johnny Barbato 235 7.27 4.15 1.38 .304 87 115 5.09 0.1 Casey Daigle
Josh Smoker 256 8.05 3.95 1.42 .310 87 115 4.89 0.0 Carmen Cali
Jacob Turner 464 5.21 3.71 1.32 .303 79 127 5.29 0.0 Galen Cisco
Christian Binford 479 4.86 2.35 1.68 .305 78 128 5.44 -0.1 Bill King
Kurt Spomer 207 4.37 3.77 1.19 .299 82 122 5.36 -0.2 Gary Wagner
Paul Voelker 265 6.90 3.84 1.69 .298 79 126 5.49 -0.3 Richie Barker
Jose Manuel Fernandez 288 7.26 5.81 1.31 .296 79 126 5.50 -0.4 Dean Brueggemann
Ryan Carpenter 502 6.61 2.47 1.99 .308 74 135 5.54 -0.4 Scott Downs
Nick Tepesch 410 4.10 3.10 1.80 .298 72 139 6.04 -0.5 Jason Roach
Phillippe Aumont 241 7.69 6.44 1.97 .297 66 152 6.61 -0.7 Chris Hook
Spenser Watkins 489 5.33 4.39 1.72 .304 71 141 6.11 -0.7 Mark Woodyard
Sandy Baez 474 5.97 4.46 2.05 .303 67 148 6.48 -1.1 R.A. Dickey

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.


Sunday Notes: New Ranger Taylor Guerrieri is No Longer Between the Railroads

Taylor Guerrieri is a Texas Ranger now, having signed a free-agent contract with the A.L. West club on Tuesday. His MLB experience is scant. Originally in the Tampa Bay organization — the Rays drafted him 24th overall in 2011 — he debuted with the Toronto Blue Jays last September and tossed nine-and-two-thirds innings over nine relief appearances.

Guerrieri features a high-spin-rate curveball, but what he throws most often is a sinker. Per StatCast, the 26-year-old right-hander relied on the pitch 47.1% of the time during his month-long cup of coffee. I asked him about it in the waning weeks of his maiden campaign.

“The main thing with the two-seam is to stay on top of it and drive it downhill,” Guerrieri told me. “That way you get the depth you’re looking for. Horizontal movement isn’t a very good play. Guys can see side to side. They struggle with up and down, so the more depth, the better.”

Natch. The goal for a sinker is to make it sink, and what Guerrieri explained is part of Pitching 101. As for grips… well, those are more nuanced. In Guerrieri’s case, they can also be a bit of a moving target. Read the rest of this entry »


Michael Fulmer May Need to Reinvent Himself

It was 84 degrees in Cleveland by the time Michael Fulmer, Detroit’s starter for a September 15 rumble with Cleveland, hit the showers without recording an out for the Tigers. Cleveland won that game 15-0, and Fulmer missed his last two scheduled starts of the season with a knee injury, apparently sustained in-game, that put him in surgery five days later. It was a fitting end to the 25-year-old’s 2018 campaign. Detroit had hoped, at the very least, that Fulmer would be effective enough to stabilize an aging rotation, one in which he and 27-year-old Matthew Boyd were the only starters under 30. At best, they’d reportedly hoped he’d be good enough to spin off to a contender at the trade deadline. He was neither, and instead posted the worst season of his three-year career.

Michael Fulmer Had a Bad Year
Season Age IP K% BB% ERA- FIP- WAR
2016 23 159.0 20.4% 6.5% 72 87 3.0
2017 24 164.2 16.9% 5.9% 87 83 3.5
2018 25 132.1 19.7% 8.2% 110 105 1.4

I’d like to focus on Fulmer’s disappointing 2018 campaign for a moment because its presumptive cause — injury — means that a resurgent Fulmer, if he indeed rebounds next year, will probably look quite different than the young man who won 2016’s AL Rookie of the Year award and was an All-Star in the next season. If baseball’s beauty lies in part in the opportunities it gives its players to reinvent themselves, then Michael Fulmer is a prime candidate for reinvention, and with his success or failure rides some portion of the future success or failure of the Tigers. Other pitchers have reinvented themselves after early-career injuries effectively, and I’m always curious to see how they choose to fight their way back. Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Blue Jays Prospect Chavez Young is a Bahamian On the Rise

It wouldn’t be accurate to say that Chavez Young came out of nowhere to become one of the hottest prospects in the Toronto Blue Jays organization. But he is following an atypical path. The 21-year-old outfielder grew up in the Bahamas before moving stateside as a teen, and going on to be selected in the 39th round of the 2016 draft out of Faith Baptist Christian Academy, in Ludowici, Georgia.

Since that time he’s become a shooting star. Playing for the Lansing Lugnuts in the Low-A Midwest League this past season, Young stroked 50 extra-base hits, stole 44 bases, and slashed a rock-solid .285/.363/.445.

How did a player with his kind of talent last until the 1,182nd pick of the draft? Read the rest of this entry »


Curtis Granderson Revisits a 2007 Interview

When I interviewed him for Baseball Prospectus in March 2007, Curtis Granderson was a young outfielder coming off a promising first full season with the Detroit Tigers. He’s since made three All-Star teams, bashed 332 home runs, and accumulated 48.7 WAR. Still active at age 37, Granderson has had a very good career.

How much has his approach — and the game itself — changed since our bygone spring training conversation? Wanting to find out, I approached Granderson with an idea this past summer: what if I were to ask him the exact same set of questions I did more than 11 seasons ago?

Granderson was amenable. Standing by his locker, I pulled a copy of the old interview out of my back pocket and proceeded to revisit the past.

———

Q: Cutting down on your strikeouts has been a main focus for you this spring. What adjustments are you making?

Granderson: “I think we’re all facing that in today’s game. Strikeouts are at an all-time high. Part of it is the talent that pitchers have now. Speaking 11 years later, they throw harder. Guys have more movement. Guys are bigger, more physical, and there are more of them doing different things — they have different pitches.

“It’s a constant battle to keep your strikeouts down. How to do that? Hopefully not getting yourself in too many two-strike counts. There really isn’t too much more you can do, except that when you do get to two strikes, just continue to battle. Fight.” Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: David Stearns and Ron Gardenhire Differ On The Shift

Would MLB actually go so far as to ban the shift? Asked about that conjecture, David Stearns made it clear that he’s no fan of the idea. Not because he’s against change, but rather because change is already a big part of baseball. More specifically — yes, there have been exceptions to the rule — organic charge is already a big part of baseball.

“Teams have evolved,” the Brewers GM said during the Winter Meetings. “Strategies have evolved. Players adjust, and they will on this one as well. If shifts become completely deflating to certain profiles of players, we will value them accordingly. Things will balance themselves out. Look, we’ve been moving fielders around for decades. I would not be in favor of a ban on shifts.”

Ron Gardenhire feels otherwise. He favors an inorganic fix to the perceived (and arguably nonexistent) problem.

“I like two guys on each side,” the Detroit manager stated in equally-stern terms. “I’ve always said that. Or at least keep them all in the dirt rather than in the grass. Ask Victor Martinez. He might have hit .300 this year if they just had them on the infield. Yeah, I am old school in that respect.”

The veteran skipper elaborated on his viewpoint in a manner suggestive of… an organic substance? Going pure Gardy, he name-checked the man erroneously credited with inventing the game, another sport, and a comedy duo from a bygone era. Read the rest of this entry »


Matthew Boyd on Pitching (“You Have To Watch His Swing”)

Matthew Boyd appeared in a handful of FanGraphs articles in 2018. The Detroit Tigers left-hander was included in a June installment of the Learning and Developing a Pitch series. A few months later, his hockey background was highlighted in an October Sunday Notes column.

Today we’ll hear from Boyd on a more-encompassing subject: how he learned, and approaches, his chosen craft. First, some pertinent biographical information.

A 27-year-old native of the Seattle area, Boyd was drafted by the Cincinnati Reds in 2012, but rather than signing a professional contract, he returned to Oregon State University for his senior year. He was subsequently selected in the sixth round of the 2013 draft by the Toronto Blue Jays, with whom he debuted in 2015. His big-league feet barely wet — he’d made just two appearances — he was then traded to the Tigers in that summer’s trade-deadline deal involving David Price.

Boyd made a career-high 31 starts this past season, logging a 4.39 ERA and a 4.45 FIP. This interview took place in mid-August.

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Matthew Boyd on pitching: “My dad (Kurt Boyd) was my coach from nine years old to when I went to college. He was also one of my main pitching coaches. He’d pitched in high school, then went into the Navy — he needed the G.I. Bill to pay for college — and served for seven years. He’s been coaching for a long time. He has a program out in Seattle called Mudville Baseball Club.

“He was always telling me how to read swings. I’ve had lots of people — other coaches in my life — telling me that, too. But my dad wanted me to understand what the hitter was trying to do. He never called pitches in high school; I always got to call my own game. There were times I got my teeth kicked in. There are times you learn stuff. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2019 Hall of Fame Ballot: One-and-Dones, Part 2

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

We continue our quick look at the 14 players on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot who are certain to fall below the 5% threshold — with most of them being shut out entirely — but are worth remembering just the same.

Placido Polanco

A valuable player who started for five playoff teams, Polanco didn’t pack much punch with his contact-oriented approach at the plate, but he was quite a glove whiz, rangy and sure-handed, at home at both second base and third. In fact, he was just the second player to win Gold Gloves at multiple positions (after Darin Erstad), and his 136 career fielding runs ranks 31st among all infielders.

Born on October 10, 1975 in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, Polanco came to the U.S. on a student visa, attending Miami Dade Community College. Drafted by the Cardinals in the 19th round in 1994, he began his minor league career as a shortstop, and though he spent all of 1996 and ’97 as a second baseman, played more short than second during his 45-game callup in 1998. He spent most of his five-season tenure in St. Louis as a utilityman, earning an increasing amount of playing time as his offense improved. In 2000, he hit .316/.347/.418 in 350 PA, while in 2001 he upped his playing time to 610 PA while batting .307/.342/.383; he was a combined 23 runs above average at third base (his primary position), second and short, boosting his WAR to 4.5. The Cardinals made the playoffs in both of those seasons.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Q&A and Sunday Notes: The Best Quotes of 2018

In 2018, I once again had the pleasure of interviewing hundreds of people within baseball. Many of their words were shared in my Sunday Notes column, while others came courtesy of the FanGraphs Q&A series, the Learning and Developing a Pitch series, the Manager’s Perspective series, and a smattering of feature stories. Here is a selection of the best quotes from this year’s conversations.

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“My slider will come out and it will be spinning, spinning, spinning, and then as soon as it catches, it picks up speed and shoots the other way. Whoosh! It’s like when you bowl. You throw the ball, and then as soon as it catches, it shoots with more speed and power. Right? “ — Sergio Romo, Tampa Bay Rays pitcher, January 2018

“One of the biggest lessons we learn is that iron sharpens iron. That is 100% how we try to do things with the Rockies — hiring people that are smarter than we are, and more skilled, and have different skills that can complement, and train people to be better at their jobs than I am at my job. That’s how you advance an organization.” — Jeff Bridich, Colorado Rockies GM, January 2018

“We could split hairs and say, ‘Hey, you’re playing in front of a thousand drunk Australians instead of 40,000 drunk Bostonians, and you’re living with a host family instead of at a five-star hotel.’ But The Show is The Show, and in Australia the ABL is The Show.” — Lars Anderson, baseball nomad, January 2018

“Baseball is heaven. Until our closer blows the game.” — Michael Hill, Miami Marlins president of baseball operations, January 2018 Read the rest of this entry »


2018 Rule 5 Draft Scouting Reports

The major-league phase of Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft began with its annual roll call of clubs confirming the number of players currently on their 40-man rosters and ended with a total of 14 players being added to new big-league clubs. Dan Szymborski offered ZiPS projections here for the players taken earlier today. Below are brief scouting reports on the players selected, with some notes provided by Kiley McDaniel.

But, first: Our annual refresher on the Rule 5 Draft’s complex rules. Players who signed their first pro contract at age 18 or younger are eligible for selection after five years of minor-league service if their parent club has not yet added them to the team’s 40-man roster. For players who signed at age 19 or older, the timeline is four years. Teams with the worst win/loss record from the previous season pick first, and those that select a player must not only (a) pay said player’s former club $100,000, but also (b) keep the player on their 25-man active roster throughout the entirety of the following season (with a couple of exceptions, mostly involving the disabled list). If a selected player doesn’t make his new team’s active roster, he is offered back to his former team for half of the initial fee. After the player’s first year on the roster, he can be optioned back to the minor leagues.

These rules typically limit the talent pool to middle-relief prospects or position players with one-dimensional skillsets, though sometimes it involves more talented prospects who aren’t remotely ready for the majors. This creates an environment where selections are made based more on fit and team need than just talent, but teams find solid big-league role players in the Rule 5 every year and occasionally scoop up an eventual star. Let’s dive into the scouting reports on this year’s group.

First Round

1. Baltimore Orioles
Richie Martin, SS (from A’s) – Martin was a 2015 first rounder out of the University of Florida, drafted as an athletic shortstop with some pop who was still raw as a baseball player. Martin had really struggled to hit in pro ball until 2018, when he repeated Double-A and slashed .300/.368/.439.

He has average raw power but hits the ball on the ground too often to get to any of it in games. Houston has been adept at altering their players’ swings, so perhaps the new Orioles regime can coax more in-game pop from Martin, who is a perfectly fine defensive shortstop. He should compete with incumbent Orioles Breyvic Valera and Jonathan Villar, as well as fellow Rule 5 acquisition Drew Jackson, for middle infield playing time. But unless there’s a significant swing change here, Martin really only projects as a middle infield utility man.

2. Kansas City Royals
Sam McWilliams, RHP (from Rays) – McWilliams was an overslot eighth rounder in 2014 and was traded from Philadelphia to Arizona for Jeremy Hellickson in the fall of 2015. He was then sent from Arizona to Tampa Bay as one of the players to be named later in the three-team trade that sent Steven Souza to Arizona. McWilliams is pretty raw for a 23-year-old. He spent two years in the Midwest League and posted a 5.02 ERA at Double-A when the Rays pushed him there after the trade.

He has a big fastball, sitting mostly 93-94 but topping out at 97. He’ll flash an occasional plus slider but it’s a rather inconsistent pitch. The industry thought McWilliams had a chance to grow into a backend rotation arm because his stuff is quite good, but he has a much better chance of sticking as a reliever right now.

3. Chicago White Sox (Traded to Rangers)
Jordan Romano, RHP (from Blue Jays) – Romano is a 25-year-old righty who spent 2018 at Double-A. He’s a strike-throwing righty with a fastball in the 91-93 range and he has an average slider and changeup, both of which reside in the 80-84 range. His command is advanced enough that both of his secondaries play up a little bit. He likely profiles as a fifth starter or rotation depth, but the Rangers current pitching situation is quite precarious and Romano may just end up sticking around to eat innings with the hope that he sticks as a backend starter or swingman when they’re competitive once again.

4. Miami Marlins
Riley Ferrell, RHP (from Astros)- Ferrell was a dominant college closer at TCU and was consistently 93-97 with a plus slider there. He continued to pitch well in pro ball until a shoulder aneurysm derailed his 2016 season. Ferrell needed surgery that transplanted a vein from his groin into his shoulder in order to repair it, and the industry worried at the time that the injury threatened his career. His stuff is back and Ferrell is at least a big league ready middle reliever with a chance to be a set-up man.

5. Detroit Tigers
Reed Garrett, RHP (from Rangers)
Garrett’s velo spiked when he moved to the bullpen in 2017 and he now sits in the mid-90s, touches 99 and has two good breaking balls, including a curveball that has a plus-plus spin rate. He also has an average changeup. He’s a fair bet to carve out a bullpen role on a rebuilding Tigers team.

6. San Diego Padres
No Pick (full 40-man)

7. Cincinnati Reds
Connor Joe, 3B (from Dodgers) – The Reds will be Joe’s fourth team in two years as he has been shuttled around from Pittsburgh (which drafted him) to Atlanta (for Sean Rodriguez) to the Dodgers (for cash) during that time. Now 26, Joe spent 2018 split between Double and Triple-A. He’s a swing changer who began lifting the ball more once he joined Los Angeles. Joe is limited on defense to first and third base, and he’s not very good at third. He has seen a little bit of time in the outfield corners and realistically projects as a four-corners bench bat who provides patience and newfound in-game pop.

8. Texas Rangers (Traded to Royals)
Chris Ellis, RHP (from Cardinals)- Ellis, 26, spent 2018 split between Double and Triple-A. One could argue he has simply been lost amid St. Louis’ surfeit of upper-level pitching but his stuff — a low-90s sinker up to 94 and an average slider — did not compel us to include him in our Cardinals farm system write up. The Royals took Brad Keller, who has a similar kind of repertoire but better pure stuff, and got more out of him than I anticipated, so perhaps that will happen with Ellis.

9. San Francisco Giants
Travis Bergen, LHP (from Blue Jays)- Bergen looked like a lefty specialist in college but the Blue Jays have normalized the way he strides toward home, and his delivery has become more platoon-neutral in pro ball. He has a fringy, low-90s fastball but has two good secondaries in his upper-70s curveball and tumbling mid-80s change. So long as he pitches heavily off of those two offerings, he could lock down a bullpen role.

10. Toronto Blue Jays
Elvis Luciano, RHP (from Royals)- Luciano turns 19 in February and was the youngest player selected in the Rule 5 by a pretty wide margin. He was acquired by Kansas City in the trade that sent Jon Jay to Arizona. Though he’ll touch 96, Luciano’s fastball sits in the 90-94 range and he has scattershot command of it, especially late in starts. His frame is less projectable than the typical teenager so there may not be much more velo coming as he ages, but he has arm strength and an above-average breaking ball, so there’s a chance he makes the Jays roster in a relief role. He has no. 4 starter upside if his below-average changeup and command progress. If he makes the opening day roster, he’ll be the first player born in the 2000s to play in the big leagues.

11. New York Mets
Kyle Dowdy, RHP (from Indians)
Dowdy’s nomadic college career took him from Hawaii to Orange Coast College and finally to Houston, where he redshirted for a year due to injury. He was drafted by Detroit and then included as a throw-in in the Leonys Martin trade to Cleveland. He’s a reliever with a four-pitch mix headlined by an above-average curveball that pairs pretty well with a fastball that lives in the top part of the strike zone but doesn’t really spin. He also has a mid-80s slider and changeup that are fringy and exist to give hitters a little different look. He could stick in the Mets bullpen.

12. Minnesota Twins
No Pick (full 40-man)

13. Philadelphia Phillies (Traded to Orioles)
Drew Jackson, SS (from Dodgers)- Jackson is a plus runner with a plus-plus arm and average defensive hands and actions at shortstop. He’s not a great hitter but the Dodgers were at least able to cleanse Jackson of the Stanford swing and incorporate more lift into his cut. He had a 55% ground ball rate with Seattle in 2016 but that mark was 40% with Los Angeles last year. He also started seeing reps in center field last season. He projects as a multi-positional utility man.

14. Los Angeles Angels
No Pick (team passed)

15. Arizona Diamondbacks
Nick Green, RHP (from Yankees)- Green has the highest present ranking on The Board as a 45 FV, and we think he’s a near-ready backend starter. Arizona lacks pitching depth, so Green has a pretty solid chance to make the club out of spring training. He induces a lot of ground balls (65% GB% in 2018) with a low-90s sinker and also has a plus curveball.

16. Washington Nationals
No Pick (team passed)

17. Pittsburgh Pirates
No Pick (team passed)

18. St. Louis Cardinals
No Pick (full 40-man)

19. Seattle Mariners
Brandon Brennan, RHP (from Rockies)- Brennan is a 27-year-old reliever with a mid-90s sinker that will touch 97. He has an average slider that relies heavily on it’s velocity more than movement to be effective. The real bat-misser here is the changeup, which has more than 10 mph of separation from Brennan’s fastball and dying fade.

20. Atlanta Braves
No Pick (team passed)

21. Tampa Bay Rays
No Pick (full 40-man)

22. Colorado Rockies
No Pick (team passed)

23. Cleveland Indians
No Pick (team passed)

24. Los Angeles Dodgers
No Pick (full 40-man)

25. Chicago Cubs
No Pick (team passed)

26. Milwaukee Brewers
No Pick (team passed)

27. Oakland Athletics
No Pick (team passed)

28. New York Yankees
No Pick (full 40-man)

29. Houston Astros
No Pick (team passed)

30. Boston Red Sox
No Pick (team passed)

Second Round

San Francisco Giants
Drew Ferguson, OF- Ferguson is a hitterish tweener outfielder with a good combination of bat-to-ball skills and plate discipline. He has a very short, compact stroke that enables him to punch lines drives to his pull side and he’s tough to beat with velocity. Ferguson doesn’t really run well enough to play center field and lacks the power for a corner, so his likely ceiling is that of a bench outfielder.