Jordan Hicks wasn’t yet reaching triple digits when our 2017 St. Louis Cardinals Top Prospects list was published in January of that year. Ranked 14th in the system at the time, the 2015 third-round pick out of Texas’s Cyprus Creek High School was throwing — per Eric Longenhagen — a comparably modest 96 mph. That soon changed. The high-octane right-hander went on to eclipse the 100 mark that summer, and early the next season he was clocked at 105 while pitching in the big leagues against the Philadelphia Phillies.
He’s since ridden a bit of a rollercoaster. Hicks followed a solid 2018 rookie campaign by logging 14 saves and a 3.14 ERA over two-plus months in 2019, but he blew out his elbow in June and underwent Tommy John surgery. As a Type-1 diabetic, he sat out the entire 2020 pandemic campaign. More elbow woes cropped up in 2021, limiting him to just 10 big league innings.
Changes of address have been notable in Hicks’ subsequent seasons, as have his job descriptions. The righty remained a reliever throughout 2023 — a year that saw him dealt from the Cardinals to the Toronto Blue Jays at the trade deadline — but he was then converted to a starter after signing as a free agent with the San Francisco Giants prior to last season. His success in that role having been a mixed bag, Hicks now finds himself back in the bullpen — with yet another team. Acquired by the Boston Red Sox as part of last month’s Rafael Devers trade, he has gone on to make nine appearances and register a pair of saves while allowing four earned runs over seven 1.3 innings. His fastball velocity has topped out at 101.5 mph.
What did his 2017 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Wanting to find out, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Hicks to respond to it.
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“A relatively undercooked prep arm from the 2015 draft.”
“Undercooked? I guess if you’re cooking a steak and you want it medium, I was rare,” Hicks said of that quote. “I didn’t have a lot of innings. At that point I had only thrown around 50 innings, and another 50 in high school. So, it was maybe 50 varsity innings and 50 pro innings. I think that’s probably what he meant by that.”
“His fastball sits 90-94, will touch 96, and comes in at an odd angle with some late sink.”Read the rest of this entry »
Austin Hays is having a productive-when-healthy season with the Cincinnati Reds. The 30-year-old outfielder has missed time with a calf strain, a hamstring strain, and a foot contusion, but he’s also slashed .282/.338/.510 with 10 home runs in 228 plate appearances. Moreover, his 128 wRC+ and .360 wOBA are both second on the team (behind Elly De La Cruz) among those with at least 140 PAs.
His résumé is that of a solid hitter. From 2021-2023— his first full seasons in the majors — Hays had 97 doubles and 54 home runs, as well as a wRC+ ranging between 106 and 111. Those three seasons were spent with the Baltimore Orioles, who subsequently swapped him to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for Seranthony Domínguez and Cristian Pache a few days before last July’s trade deadline. Hays’s 2024 campaign was the worst of his career. Hampered by injuries and illness — a kidney infection proved most problematic — he had a 97 wRC+ while playing in just 85 games. The Reds then inked him to a free agent contract over the winter,
Which brings us to the crux of this column’s lead item: the reasons behind the success he’s currently having.
“Consistency is probably the biggest thing,” Hays told me. “There’s not always an adjustment to be made. Sometimes it’s just the game [and] you’re being pitched tough. I don’t want to be altering too much of what I do well. In the past, I would sometimes pay too much attention to what the pitcher was doing and try to adjust to that. Staying strong to my strengths — locking in on those strengths — is going to help me over the course of 162 [games].” Read the rest of this entry »
Tyler Mahle was 23 years old and had 20 big league innings under his belt when our 2018 Cincinnati Reds Top Prospects list was published in January of that year. A seventh-round pick out of an Orange County high school five years earlier, Mahle was ranked fourth in the system, with Eric Longenhagen assigning him a 50 FV.
Mahle has gone on to have an injury-marred career. Most notably, he underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2023, less than a year after he’d been dealt from the Reds to the Minnesota Twins in exchange for Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Spencer Steer, and Steve Hajjar at the trade deadline.
When healthy, the 30-year-old right-hander has been a quality pitcher more often than not. In 2021, he made 33 starts for Cincinnati and went 13-6 with a 3.75 ERA and a 3.80 FIP over 180 innings. Moreover, Mahle was on track for an even better season when he went on the shelf seven weeks ago with what has since been diagnosed as a right rotator cuff strain. In 14 starts comprising 77 innings with the Texas Rangers, Mahle had a record of 6-3 to go with a 2.34 ERA and a 3.37 FIP. His status for the remainder of the current campaign is unclear.
What did Mahle’s 2018 FanGraphs scouting report look like? Moreover, what does he think about it all these years later? Before he went on the injured list, I shared some of what Eric wrote and asked Mahle to respond to it.
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“After 24 hyper-efficient starts at Double and Triple-A, Mahle finally got a four-start cup of coffee in Cincinnati at the end of the season. His ability to locate was not on display in the big leagues, but it’s what got Mahle there.”
“Not great,” Mahle said of his four starts in 2017. “I was wild. My first two or three starts, I’d thrown something like 50 pitches by time I got through two innings. So yeah, not very efficient. But I got through it. Then I got off to a decent start the next year, in 2018, but pitched kind of hurt toward the end of that season.”
“He has above-average fastball command despite a somewhat noisy delivery; it should tighten another half-grade as Mahle hits his peak.”
“Hmm… yeah, my delivery back then was super stiff,” he said. “I held my glove up high and it stayed there until I broke my hands. Looking back, my delivery was, again, super stiff. A lot has changed there.
“Honestly, I don’t remember exactly,” Mahle said when asked when he made the adjustment. “It must have been with [Reds pitching coach Derek Johnson]. We kind of took away some movement in the hands. Instead of going from up high to down low, we started going from the belt to make it a little simpler.”
“His stuff is middling, spearheaded by a slightly above-average fastball/slider combination out of which Mahle squeezes every ounce of juice due to his ability to locate.”
“I was pitching with pretty much all fastballs at that time,” the righty recalled. “My slider was super inconsistent. I didn’t have a splitter like I have now. I basically just relied on the fastball.”
“He adds and subtracts from his fastball, exhibiting velocities anywhere from 88 to 95, touching 96 regularly, and maxing out at 98.”
“Yeah, but not so much anymore,” Mahle admitted. “I kind of live low 90s now and will top around 95. But relying so much on my fastball back then, I had to try to overpower guys with it. I had to try to throw it hard.”
“While Mahle’s change doesn’t have terrific movement, his ability to manipulate pitch speed without noticeable arm deceleration helps make it a viable third offering.”
“Yep. I mean, that was me,” Mahle said. “I didn’t have much of a changeup, so I had to try to place it in the zone, or wherever I was trying to get it. Like my slider, it was just super inconsistent. The arm speed… I actually feel like I probably did have to change it, based on what I was throwing. I maybe telegraphed a lot back then. Now I can throw everything with pretty much the same arm speed.”
“His stuff isn’t overwhelming, but his command should allow him to survive as an average big league starter.”
“That’s how I’ve gotten by,” the nine-year veteran acknowledged. “My command, still now… like, my fastball isn’t an overpowering pitch velo-wise, but I locate it. I also get some good ride on it. Back then, I didn’t know that. I just knew that it did well up in the zone. But yeah, I kind of lived off the location of my pitches.
“I understand everything a lot more now,” Mahle added. “I know why it works well up in the zone, and what the separation is on each pitch, and why they’re doing what they’re doing. Compared to now, back then I was pretty much just throwing.”
Andrew Abbott is establishing himself as a top-shelf starter. Now in his third big league season, the 26-year-old southpaw has a record of 8-1 to go with a 2.13 ERA and a 3.42 FIP over 97 1/3 innings. Moreover, he represented the Cincinnati Reds in last week’s All-Star Game. An honorable mention in Ben Clemens’ ongoing Trade Value series, Abbott merits attention — and he’s been receiving his fair share of it here at FanGraphs. Jake Mailhot wrote about him in mid-May, and Michael Baumann followed up by doing so in mid-June; Baumann also covered Abbott as a rookie in this piece from August 2023.
Accuse us of being AbbottGraphs if you’d like, but the University of Virginia product is getting yet another write-up courtesy of yours truly. Being a big fan of crafty lefties, I wasn’t about to pass up the opportunity to talk to Abbott — as well as to others about Abbott — when the Reds visited Fenway Park earlier this month.
Not surprisingly, his self-assessment pretty much matched what I’ve read and seen.
“I’m not an overpowering guy,” acknowledged Abbott, whose 92.4-mph fastball velocity ranks in the 21st percentile. “Mixing speeds and getting guys off balance has always been the name of the game with me. That and staying in the zone as much as possible. I also take pride in being available, being able to throw 100 pitches every fifth day.” Read the rest of this entry »
Merrill Kelly is having a rock-solid season. Over 21 starts comprising 122 innings, the 36-year-old right-hander has a 9-6 record to go with a 3.32 ERA and a 3.48 FIP. Those numbers are pretty much par for the course. Over the past three-plus seasons — all with the Arizona Diamondbacks — Kelly has made 97 starts and gone 39-22 with a 3.42 ERA and a 3.75 FIP. Neither overpowering nor of ace quality, Kelly is nonetheless a good pitcher who adds value to a big league rotation.
He could soon be taking the mound for a different team. Signed by the D-backs in December 2018 following a four-season stint in the KBO, Kelly is now on the doorstep of free agency; should Arizona decide to be sellers at the deadline, he could find himself in another team’s uniform come August 1. If that happens, the club that acquires him would be getting a known commodity. He has put up between 2.2 and 3.2 WAR in four of his last five seasons, with the exception coming last year, when injuries limited him to just 13 starts and 73 2/3 innings. His overall big league ledger reads: 62-49, 161 starts, 946 1/3 innings, 3.76 ERA, 3.97 FIP, 13.9 WAR.
With free agency looming, I spoke with the veteran hurler earlier this year about his approach to pitching, his evolution on the mound, and his steady performance since returning stateside.
“That’s an interesting question,” Kelly replied when asked how how he gets hitters out. “I would say that I do it in a lot of different ways. Ideally, I would like to get them out on as few pitches as possible. I guess you’d consider that a little bit more old school. Read the rest of this entry »
Payton Tolle is the top pitching prospect in what is arguably baseball’s best farm system. Drafted 50th-overall last summer by the Boston Red Sox out of Texas Christian University, the 22-year-old left-hander features a fastball that Eric Longenhagen has assigned a 70 grade, and not just because of its high octane. Per our lead prospect analyst, the 6-foot-6, 250-pound hurler possessed “the 2024 draft’s most deceptive secondary traits,” which included seven-and-a-half feet of extension.
I asked Tolle about his four-seamer, which sat 95 mph when I saw toe the rubber for the Double-A Portland Sea Dogs versus the Hartford Yard Goats 10 days ago.
“The velo is something we’ve kind of driven hard ever since I got to the Red Sox org,” said Tolle, who was 90-92 in college and is now topping out at 98-99. “I’m buying into the system, buying into how the velo is going to change how everything looks. I also understand that more swing-and-miss is going to come at the top of the zone. At Wichita State, my first year, I felt like I was almost more sinkers, but then I switched up my grip. I brought my fingers closer together and started to have more ride on it.”
Tolle transferred from Wichita State to TCU for his junior year, where he — along with the Horned Frogs coaching staff — “really dove into how the fastball plays and what we can play off of it.” Since turning pro, that evolution has continued with a heavy emphasis on secondary offerings. Whereas his fastball usage as an amateur was often 70-75%, it has been closer to 50% in his recent outings. A work-in-progress changeup has become more prevalent — Tolle got bad swings on a few of them when I saw him in Portland — but a hard breaking ball is currently his top option behind his heater. Read the rest of this entry »
James Tibbs III might best be described as a hitting rat. Drafted 13th overall last year by the San Francisco Giants out of Florida State University, and subsequently shipped to the Boston Red Sox in last month’s blockbuster Rafael Devers deal, the 22-year-old outfielder lives and breathes baseball — particularly the part that entails standing in the batter’s box. From a young age, Tibbs has doggedly worked on honing his left-handed stroke.
An Atlanta native who attended high school in nearby Marietta, Tibbs excelled collegiately, slashing .338/.462/.685 over three seasons at the ACC school, with a 28-homer junior campaign further enhancing his profile. And he’s continued to hit in pro ball. He played just 26 games after inking a contract last summer, and his results were mixed; he posted a 153 wRC+ in nine games (42 plate appearances) in A-ball, earned a promotion, then went cold in High-A. Now in his first full professional season, he’s back to doing what he does best: bashing baseballs. Tibbs put up a 132 wRC+ with a dozen home runs in High-A prior to the trade, and since joining his new organization, he has logged a 107 wRC+ over 86 plate appearances while acclimating to Double-A.
Ranked 14th in what Eric Longenhagen called “the best farm system in baseball” when our Red Sox Top Prospects list was published in late June, the promising young outfielder was assigned a 45 FV, with raw power graded as his best hitting tool. Tibbs sat down to talk hitting prior to a recent Portland Sea Dogs home game.
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David Laurila: You were drafted one year ago. Are you the same hitter now, or has anything meaningfully changed?
James Tibbs III: “I’m pretty much the same. It’s what’s gotten me this far, and I’ve kind of tried to replicate that as much as possible. I’ve never been one to try to make changes unless it’s absolutely necessary, because I play off of feel. I’ll make adjustments based off of that feel, but I’m doing it trying to get back to my base. My base has been pretty consistent for the last… three years? Two years? Something like that.
“I feel like I cover the plate well. I feel like I can see the ball well from where I stand and how I load. I feel like I use my body well in order to get to the spots that I can’t necessarily cover. So yeah, it’s been pretty consistent for the most part.”
Hunter Goodman will represent the Colorado Rockies in tonight’s All-Star Game, and while he plays for the worst team in the majors, he is by no means a quota-filling selection. The 25-year-old catcher is slashing .277/.325/.517 with 17 home runs and a 120 wRC+ over 345 plate appearances. Moreover, his 52 RBI are the most among senior circuit backstops.
Three months before his All-Star selection, he was featured here at FanGraphs in an article titled Hunter Goodman Isn’t Choosy. When my colleague Davy Andrews penned the April 9 piece, Goodman had seen 63 pitches outside of the strike zone and swung at 33 of them, giving him a 54.1% chase rate. He also had a 66.1% overall swing rate.
As Davy wrote, “This is about as extreme as baseball gets.”
I brought up the article when the Rockies visited Fenway Park last week, and Goodman’s response was gold. Having read my colleague’s column, the young slugger replied, “That guy better not show up here.” He was kidding — the words came with a smile — after which he turned serious.
“Honestly, I was hitting pretty well at the time,” recalled Goodman, who then had a wRC+ just north of league average. “I was getting a lot of pitches to hit. But yes, I was swinging a lot. Starting the year, I was trying to be aggressive and trying to see where I was at. It’s like everything else; the more you get going, the more things start to calm down. Over the season, it’s gotten better. Being in the lineup every day has helped a lot with my timing.” Read the rest of this entry »
Jose Altuve is having a Cooperstown-worthy career. Since debuting with the Houston Astros in 2011, the 35-year-old second baseman has logged 2,329 hits, including 246 home runs, while putting up a 129 wRC+ and 59.2 WAR. A nine-time All-Star who has won seven Silver Sluggers and one Gold Glove, Altuve captured MVP honors in 2017.
Turn the clock back to 2008, and the 5-foot-6 Puerto Cabello, Venezuela native was 18 years old and playing stateside for the first time. His manager with the rookie-level Greeneville Astros was Rodney Linares.
I recently asked the now-Tampa Bay Rays bench coach for his memories of the then-teenaged prospect.
“One guy that doesn’t get a lot of credit for Altuve is [current St. Louis Cardinals first base coach] Stubby Clapp, who’d been my hitting coach the year before,” Linares told me. “He always talked about Altuve, because he’d had him in extended spring. He was like, ‘You’ve got to watch this kid; this kid is going to be really good.’ I used to tell Stubby, ‘You think that because you’re small and played in the big leagues, anybody who is small can play.’”
Linares recalls the Astros organization’s wanting him to play 20-year-old Albert Cartwright at second, prompting him to tell Altuve ‘Go to short, go to third, go to left field. I’m going to make sure that you get your at-bats.” Read the rest of this entry »
Charlie Condon was drafted just last year, so unlike the previous installments in this series, the 22-year-old corner infielder isn’t exactly revisiting “an old scouting report” here. The observations and opinions he is responding to were written by Eric Longenhagen this past January, less than sixth months after Condon was drafted third overall by Colorado out of the University of Georgia. At the time, the young power hitter had only 109 minor league plate appearances under his belt in the High-A Northwest League.
Eric wasn’t as bullish on him as many other evaluators were when our 2025 Rockies Top Prospects list was published. Our lead prospect analyst ranked Condon second in what he described as a “talented but imbalanced system,” but Eric also gave him just a 45+ FV, citing last year’s poor performance during his first professional season as one of the reasons to be concerned; Condon slashed .180/.248/.270 with a 40 wRC+.
The 6-foot-6, 215-pound right-handed hitter is doing his best to dispel doubts that he can develop into an offensive force at the big league level. After recovering from a non-displaced fracture of his left wrist suffered in spring training, Condon put up a 131 wRC+ over 167 plate appearances with High-A Spokane this season and earned a promotion to Double-A. Since joining the Hartford Yard Goats at the beginning of this month, he’s gone 6-for-27 with a pair of two-baggers.
In a twist to our Old Scouting Reports series, here are Condon’s responses to excerpts from Eric’s January write-up.
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“Condon went third overall, signed for $9.25 million, and then had a no good very bad pro debut at Spokane during which he hit .180 and struck out 31.2% of the time.”
“That’s just baseball, man, “ Condon said of his disappointing debut. “It’s part of the learning experience, and you have to be able to accept failure and take the positives out of it. I think I’ve learned since then. It’s a tough game.
“Some of it was timing,” the slugger said when asked to elaborate. “I was also getting a little big sometimes. I had to clean up some things with my bat path to help get ready for this year.”
“During instructs, Condon played defense but didn’t get at-bats, as if he was being given time away from the plate to reset.”Read the rest of this entry »
