For the first time in three years, the Hall of Fame Induction Weekend won’t be overshadowed by the arrival of the July 31 trade deadline. This year’s festivities will take place July 20-21 in Cooperstown, New York. Saturday, July 20, will feature the presentation of this year’s Ford C. Frick Award for broadcasters (to the late Al Helfer, who passed away in 1975) and the J.G. Taylor Spink Award for writers (to Jayson Stark, who is still very much alive) as well as the Parade of Legends. Sunday, July 21 will feature the induction of six former players, namely BBWAA honorees Roy Halladay (posthumously), Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina, and Mariano Rivera, and Today’s Game Era honorees Harold Baines and Lee Smith. For a full schedule, including extended museum hours, see here.

If you want to read more about this year’s inductees, I’ve got lengthy, JAWS-flavored profiles of all six of them here at FanGraphs:

• Baines, the 1977 number one overall pick, was easily the most shocking committee choice in decades.
• Halladay, a two-time Cy Young winner, died in 2017; his election makes him the first player chosen posthumously by the writers in a regular election since Rabbit Maranville in 1954, and the only other one elected by the writers in his first year of eligibility besides Christy Mathewson in the Hall’s inaugural election in 1936 (he died in 1925).
• Martinez, a top-30 hitter (in OPS+) spent his entire career with the Mariners and excelled to such a great degree that MLB named its award for the top designated hitter in his honor. I recently interviewed him about his new autobiography.
• Mussina, who spent his entire 18-year career pitching in the crucible of the AL East, cracked the top five in bWAR seven times and finishing among the top five in Cy Young voting six times.
• Rivera is the all-time saves leader, the most dominant postseason pitcher ever, and the first player ever elected unanimously by the writers.
• Smith is the former all-time saves leader.

If you’re among the many thousands of people making the pilgrimage to Cooperstown — driven by Rivera, this year’s crowd could surpass last year’s estimated 53,000, which was the second-largest ever — you can purchase a signed copy of my book, The Cooperstown Casebook (which was released two years ago this month; see Paul Swydan’s review here and an excerpt here) and perhaps even talk a little baseball with me on Saturday. From 11 AM to 1 PM, I’ll be hawking my wares in front of Willis Monie Books at 139 Main St. Other authors will be signing there all weekend long as well. More details can be found here.

If you’re in Cooperstown on Sunday, I will be one of four authors making presentations at the Cliff Kachline Chapter’s post-induction meeting, which will be held at 6 PM, at Tillapaugh’s Funeral Home, 28 Pioneer St., Cooperstown. C’mon, you’re dying to go! It’s open not just to SABR members but to the general public. Also on the bill are Jeff Katz, former Cooperstown mayor and author of Split Season 1981; Jane Leavy, the author of The Big Fella: Babe Ruth and the World He Created, as well as bios of Sandy Koufax and Mickey Mantle; and Erik Sherman, co-author with Art Shamsky of After the Miracle: The Lasting Brotherhood of the ’69 Mets. For more information, see here.

Whether or not you buy a book or are a SABR member, you can also catch me on Thursday’s MLB Now from 4-5 PM ET, discussing this year’s class and other baseball matters with Brian Kenny, Jon Heyman, and Dan O’Dowd. Spot cancelled due to rain, boo.

Finally, while it’s not Hall of Fame-related, I’ll also be part of the Gelf Magazine Varsity Letters tribute to Jim Bouton on Thursday, July 18, at 7:30 PM at Le Poisson Rouge (158 Bleecker Street, New York, NY). Neil deMause, Paul Lukas, and Mitchell Nathanson (the author of a forthcoming Bouton biography) and I will all be reading from the work of the great pitcher-turned author, discussing its monumental impact, and sharing stories of our own interactions with Bouton.

At the beginning of June, I experimented with a metric designed to determine how exciting it has been to watch a team. Using leverage index, I factored in how often a team played in games with something at stake, and looked at how often the team actually delivered in those moments using WPA. I separated both categories into hitting and pitching and made 100 the major league average. I took the geometric mean of those four numbers; the result is the Exhilaration Index. At the same time, I took the difference between the team’s leverage index scores and their WPA scores to determine how often a team let fans down in big situations, a number that I called their Horror Score.

Here is the Exhilaration Index for June:

Here are the Horror Scores for June:

Here’s the Exhilaration Index for the first half of the season:

And finally, the Horror Scores through the All-Star Break:

Fans of the Red Sox, Dodgers, Braves, and Rays seem to be getting their money’s worth this season, while the Tigers, Royals, Marlins, and Mets have provided their faithful an awful lot of heartache. We’ll check back as the second half progresses to see if the horrified receive any relief, or if the fortunes of the delighted shift.

Last night, Lance Lynn got the second half of the season off to a very good start for the Texas Rangers by striking out 11 while issuing just two walks in seven shutout innings. Even with that great start, Lynn is still second to Max Scherzer, who leads all pitchers with 5.5 WAR, but he’s now accumulated 4.4 WAR and is a full win clear of Charlie Morton and Gerrit Cole, who are tied behind him. When Lynn shut down the Astros, he wasn’t just dominating an average team. Houston has the best hitting offense in all of baseball, with a 118 wRC+ and an 18% strikeout rate that ranks second in the majors. Three weeks ago, I noted Lynn’s perch atop the AL WAR Leaderboard as an interesting peculiarity, an unexpected development. His performance since then has thrust him to the forefront of the American League Cy Young race.

On June 20, I wrote about how Lynn’s ERA was misleading, how he lessened his sinker usage in favor of the cutter, and how he used a different approach with runners on base to minimize damage. One thing I missed when writing that piece was Lynn’s slightly different arm slot, which Michael Ajeto wrote about at Pitcher List and which likely helped make his cutter better. In what ended up being less than fortuitous timing for my article, Lynn immediately went out and gave up four runs in the first inning of his June 22 tilt against the White Sox. Since that inning, Lynn has pitched 28 more frames, struck out 31 batters, walked just three, and allowed only three runs. His ERA at the time of the article was around four; it has since dropped to 3.69. That might not seem too low, but consider that Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR, which is primarily run-based as opposed to the FIP-based version here at FanGraphs, also thinks Lynn is excellent. His 4.5 WAR there is second in the AL to Mike Minor and third in baseball with Scherzer also ahead of him. Over at Baseball Prospectus, Lynn leads the AL with 4.2 WARP.

Here’s where Lynn ranks in a bunch of stats, both traditional and modern:

His relatively low poor ERA showing (13th) is mitigated by having no unearned runs, which is unusual, and pitching in a hitter-friendly park. Lynn’s case as AL’s best pitcher this season stands on its own, but he’s actually been even better since a so-so start to the season:

Consider this your Lance Lynn Cy Young update.

Futures Game rosters were announced today. We’ve compiled them and added them to a tab on THE BOARD for your perusal. There you’ll have access to things like our scouting reports, tool grades, and video of the prospects.

You probably already know most of the names on the rosters because they’ve been discussed and/or prominently ranked at this website, but I want to touch on some interesting inclusions. First, I had to create a new BOARD record for, and source a fresh report on, Brewers RHP Devin Williams, who has been in pro ball since 2013 and is this year’s oldest participant. Injuries constantly sidetracked the first five years of Williams’ career and this season was his first above A-ball. I saw him as a starter in 2016 and 2018 sitting about 90-93 with a plus curveball. He was finally ‘penned this year and has been 91-97 and has touched 100 while showing plus breaking stuff. In my opinion he’s still too wild and has too lengthy an injury history to FV him the way we have other relievers with similar stuff (he was in the honorable mention section of the Brewers’ offseason list), but it’s a great story and an in-person look in Cleveland might change our minds. He’ll likely be a 40-man add this offseason.

Also of note is the Red Sox’s 2018 seventh round pick Jarren Duran, who was the biggest individual riser on our post-draft list update and is on the roster. As far as I know, he’s the lowest-drafted player to make a Futures Game in the following season. Boston’s system is not good and that’s part of why he’s their representative, but his rise has been quite incredible and his evaluation is arguably the game’s most important.

Of course, it’s important to note that these rosters are subject to change due to either injury or big league call-ups. Cubs RHP Adbert Alzolay and Rays LHP/1B Brendan McKay are both in the big leagues right now and would seem to be the most likely to be replaced, while Nationals SS Carter Kieboom, Cleveland OF Daniel Johnson and Rockies LHP Ben Bowden are, in my opinion, in the next tier of likelihood to be replaced. For logistical simplicity, replacements for Alzolay and McKay would be, and this is just an educated guess on my part, Midwest League arms from those teams. Rays prospects Shane Baz or Matthew Liberatore, both on Bowling Green’s roster, would be fine inclusions whose throwing schedules wouldn’t have to be adjusted much for this game, while Cubs LHP Brailyn Marquez, who is at South Bend, is a logical talent/proximity sub, but he’s have to be shorted a day’s rest (compared to what he’s used to, not based on typical big league rest) to throw that night.

With last night’s announcement of the starters for the 2019 All-Star Game, baseball’s experiment with a new fan voting process officially came to its completion.

Ten of the 17 All-Star starters currently lead their respective league in WAR at their position, with two more — Gary Sanchez and Nolan Arenado — sitting in virtual ties.

Here’s the full breakdown, first for the American League:

Read the rest of this entry »

FanGraphs is headed to Cleveland for some pre-All-Star game festivities, and we want to raise a glass with our readers. To that end, we’re hosting an event at Speakeasy on Saturday, July 6 at 6 PM. The evening will feature drinks, appetizers, plenty of time for mingling, and a fun night of baseball discussion, including not one, but two, panels staffed by FanGraphs writers and our friends from around the game, plus audience Q&A. The panel lineups are below; I’ll moderate both and make sure no one misbehaves too badly.

MLB Panel:
Dan Szymborski, Craig Edwards, and FiveThirtyEight’s Travis Sawchik

Prospect Panel:
Eric Longenhagen, Kiley McDaniel, and Cespedes Family BBQ’s Jake Mintz and Jordan Shusterman

Doors open at 6 PM; the panels will kick off at 7 PM. Tickets are $15, or free with FanGraphs membership (a coupon will automatically be applied to your ticket if you are logged in when you purchase), and cover admission to the event. They can be purchased here. Appetizers are on us.

We hope to see you there!

Event Details
Saturday, July 6
Speakeasy, 1948 W 25th St, Cleveland, OH
Doors open at 6 PM
Panel program begins at 7 PM
Tickets can be purchased here. Tickets may also be purchased at the door — cash only, please!

With Jason Martinez and RosterResource.com joining FanGraphs, we’ve taken all the great information over there and put it to work on the FanGraphs player pages.

That means that up-to-date contract information, service time, various eligibilities, and minor league options are now available on our player pages. Please note that Service Time and MiLB Options are recorded at the start of the season and will be updated in the off-season. Arbitration and free agent eligibility is projected.

If anything seems amiss as you’re looking through your favorite players’ pages, please let us know in the comments.

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: Baseball Operations Software Engineer

Location: Chicago, IL

Description:
The Chicago White Sox seek an experienced Software Engineer to join their baseball operations group. The engineer will be responsible for building and maintaining data driven systems with a focus on Baseball Analytics, however there will be additional exposure to all facets of baseball operations. This position will report to the Director of Baseball Analytics.

Responsibilities:

• Develop data-driven web applications and reports to assist the White Sox front office with player evaluation, arbitration, scouting, and player development.
• Manage the integration of new and existing data sources.
• Provide operational support.

Requirements:

• Degree in computer science, engineering, or similar field.
• Technical proficiency in web development and scripting technologies such as HTML, PHP, AJAX, and JavaScript.
• Object oriented development experience with Visual Studio and C#.
• Strong UI design fundamentals, with examples of intuitive and flexible interfaces.
• Knowledge of SQL Server or MySQL with the ability to write and optimize complex queries and stored procedures.
• Experience working with large datasets.
• Familiarity with advanced baseball metrics and research.
• Strong communication and presentation skills.
• Demonstrated high degree of integrity, professionalism, accountability, and discretion.
• Ability to work flexible hours.

Preferred Qualifications:

• Experience with ETL methodologies.
• Experience presenting data with Tableau.
• Experience performing advanced statistical analysis with analytical tools such as R, MatLab, or Python.
• Advanced quantitative degree or published research.
• Prior baseball playing or operations experience.

To Apply:
Please review the requirements above and send a resume/cover letter to ApplyAnalytics@chisox.com. Due to the large number of applicants, you may not receive a response.

Position: Baseball Analyst

Description:
The Chicago White Sox seek a passionate, knowledgeable, and dedicated individual with a desire to work in Baseball Operations. The position will focus primarily on the numerical methods that drive Baseball Analytics, however there will be additional exposure to all facets of baseball operations. This position will report to the Director of Baseball Analytics.

Responsibilities:

• Create proprietary performance metrics and predictive models using regression and machine learning.
• Develop data-driven applications and reports to assist the White Sox front office with player evaluation, arbitration, scouting, and player development.
• Provide operational support.

Requirements:

• Degree in computer science, mathematics, engineering, or similar field.
• Experience performing advanced statistical analysis (regression, mixed models, machine learning) with analytical tools such as R, MatLab, or Python.
• Knowledge of SQL Server or MySQL with the ability to write and optimize complex queries and stored procedures.
• Experience working with large datasets.
• Familiarity with advanced baseball metrics and research.
• Strong communication and presentation skills.
• Demonstrated high degree of integrity, professionalism, accountability, and discretion.
• Ability to work flexible hours.

Preferred Qualifications:

• Technical proficiency in web development and scripting technologies such as HTML, PHP, AJAX, JavaScript, Node.js, and Vue-js.
• Object oriented development experience with Visual Studio and C#.
• Knowledge and practice with ETL solutions and best practices.
• Experience creating computer vision models with OpenCV or TensorFlow.
• Experience presenting data with Tableau.
• Advanced quantitative degree or published research.
• Prior baseball playing or operations experience.

To Apply:
Please review the requirements above and send a resume/cover letter to ApplyAnalytics@chisox.com. Due to the large number of applicants, you may not receive a response.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Chicago White Sox.

July is upon us, and with it comes a new signing period for international amateur players. Over on THE BOARD, we’ve added rankings and reports on the players we consider to be the best in this year’s class, as well as the big league teams to which they’re tied.

We talked about the very top of the class at length back in February, headlined by Dominican CF Jasson Dominguez (expected to sign with the Yankees), who will go right onto our top 120 prospects in baseball. Other than late questions about Dominican LF Bayron Lora (a wrist injury may be the culprit, though it is unlikely to be a long term issue), and Venezuelan CF Yhoswar Garcia (who international personnel told us to remove from the list entirely due to age/identity issues that ultimately led to a year-long suspension), the top tier of players on our list hasn’t changed.

You’ll notice we don’t have projected bonuses on THE BOARD this year. We have some bonus amounts in the players’ scouting summaries, and we’ll add some only as they become official, but for player safety reasons, we decided to exclude all Venezuelan bonuses. Lots of the players from this class have already started playing baseball at their employer’s complex and are likely very safe, but any amount of risk that a teenager may be targeted because they have new money is too much.

Most of these deals were agreed to long before the players are technically eligible to sign, something that MLB seems eager to change by way of an International Draft, which we discussed at length on this podcast. Some players in this class agreed to deals two years ago and they’re so infrequently scouted or even seen once locked up, that the most up-to-date reports are often over a year old unless the signing team is our sole source. As you can surmise, lots of things can happen between ages 15 and 16, so our rankings for middle- and lower-tier players tend to be much more accurate after fall instructional leagues.

Even with early deals, there are still multiple teams with millions in uncommitted money (remember, each team’s bonus pool is now hard capped), some players who have yet to agree to deals, and perhaps even players who we don’t know about (often late-bloomers or late-defecting Cubans) and may become eligible to sign over the next 11 1/2 months. Teams can trade for additional bonus space to pursue these types of players outside of their assigned bonus pools. We anticipate some clubs will make a run at Cuban SS Yiddi Cappe, who is eligible to sign this year but has a $3.5 million deal for 2020, by trying to trade for enough pool money to make things interesting right now.

The Yankees did exactly this with Cuban SS Alexander Vargas last year. Vargas was set to sign with Cincinnati for $3 million next week, but the Yankees traded for enough pool space to lure him away with a $2.5 million deal last summer. If a team is unsuccessful in doing this (as a couple of clubs were when chasing Shohei Ohtani), they may end up spreading that money around to players in Asia (three Taiwanese players are referenced on our rankings), Mexico (a newly-opened market), or other less-scouted markets (for example, the Phillies signed Australian RHP Jake Gessner two weeks ago, before the last signing period closed).

FanGraphs is headed to Cleveland for some pre-All-Star game festivities, and we want to raise a glass and enjoy a bit of baseball talk with our readers. To that end, we’re hosting an event at Speakeasy on Saturday, July 6 at 6 PM. The evening will feature drinks, appetizers, plenty of time for mingling, and a panel discussion with some of your favorite FanGraphs writers and our friends from around the game.

FanGraphs writers who will be in attendance include me, Eric Longenhagen, Kiley McDaniel, Dan Szymborski, Craig Edwards, David Appelman, and Sean Dolinar.

Doors open at 6 PM; the panel will kick off at 7 PM. Tickets are $15, or free with FanGraphs membership (a coupon will automatically be applied to your ticket if you are logged in when you purchase), and cover admission to the event. They can be purchased here. Appetizers are on us.

We’ll have more details on the panel and potential guests soon. We hope to see you there!

Event Details
Saturday, July 6
Speakeasy, 1948 W 25th St, Cleveland, OH
Doors open at 6 PM
Panel program begins at 7 PM
Tickets can be purchased here.