Meg Rowley FanGraphs Chat – 7/16/18

Meg Rowley: Hi all! We’ll get started in just a second. Allow me to fetch a glass of water and issue some editing marching orders.

Meg Rowley: Ok, water acquired.

Meg Rowley: Couple of links of interest before we get started.

Meg Rowley: As you’ve probably seen, Kiley is off and running with the Trade Value Series.

Meg Rowley: Today’s installment can be found here, and has links to the prior entries: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-trade-value-31-to-40/

Meg Rowley: Also, RosterResource depth charts are now at FanGraphs!

Meg Rowley: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/introducing-rosterresource-depth-charts/

Meg Rowley: We’re very excited about it — if you find anything that looks amiss, drop it in the comments.

Meg Rowley: Also, Eric and Kiley adjusted a bunch of guys’ FVs and prospect ranks after considering the Futures Game and other scouting sundry. Their post detailing those moves can be found here: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/we-adjusted-several-prospects-rankings/

Meg Rowley: Ok, on to your questions.

Eddy: Talk me off the ledge with the Brewers. I’ve all but lost hope.

Meg Rowley: You still have the fifth highest playoff odds in the NL?

Chris: How many rays are going to be selected next year in the rule 5 draft?

Meg Rowley: They’re going to face some pretty serious 40-man crunch for sure

Meg Rowley: Eric detailed this in his post on the Nick Solak-Peter Fairbanks deal yesterday (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-rays-and-rangers-swap-prospects/)

Meg Rowley: To quote him: Solak, Vidal Brujan, Ronaldo Hernandez, Lucius Fox (all 40-man locks), Resly Linares, Garrett Whitley and Moises Gomez (less so) are all Rule 5 eligible this winter, and Tyler Glasnow, Anthony Banda, and Christian Arroyo are on 60-day DL and will need to be put back on the 40-man at some point.

Meager Owl: So, the Rays and the Indians could benefit from Domingo Santana, primarily as a DH, but also in the OF.  What do you think deadline Santana would be worth?  What would you, as surrogate GM, offer?

Meg Rowley: I … don’t think you’ve seen Domingo Santana play the outfield?

Meg Rowley: He was traded for Ben Gamel and Noah Zavolas last off-season. Unlikely he nets more than that now.

Broken Bat: Meg, IYO every MLB shares the same info on spectator batted ball injuries etc. Some teams have digested the info and reacted by placing extended netting etc. Some teams have not reacted. For those  that don’t react, and perhaps a major injury happens where it was shown that extended meeting placed by say several other mlb teams would have prevented the event at their park; well it would seem other balls parks will be used as evidence of negligent ownership. Do you see it that Way?

Meg Rowley: I am not a lawyer, and know that these suits tend not to result in favorable judgments for the injured, at least in the US, so I’m not sure that by the legal definition of “negligent” they would be, but by the standard of basic care of their fans, yeah, extend the nets, this is ridiculous.

Meg’s #1 Fan: Is there any reason to be excited for the Blue Jays to trade Marcus Stroman? It just feels really stupid that a team desperate for pitching is trading their best pitcher, who also loves Toronto and would sign an extension!

Meg Rowley: He’s 28, has been inconsistent, will net something useful in return, and they’re more than a year or two away.

Hello: On a scale from 1 to 10, how gRowley would you say you are today?

Meg Rowley: 4? I’m tired, but from the site being busy with really good stuff. Don’t like the state of the world, and the baseline ennui always threatens but I’m alright?

Meg Rowley: I don’t have to get on a plane for a few weeks, so I’m pretty jazzed about that.

2-D: What were your best and worst experiences with Cleveland?

Meg Rowley: Best was the Futures Game, followed closely by our event. It is just the raddest to be able to hang out with our readers and my baseball pals, whom I love very much. The worst was getting there, and getting home. On two of my flights, I had very unpleasant seatmates, and got home very late last Monday night.

Bread Gardner: ROSTER RESOURCE IS MY NEW GOD

Meg Rowley: It is pretty, pretty, pretty good

Hooha: For next year, maybe consider taking an Amtrak down to LA for the all star game instead of Spirit again.

Meg Rowley: There are just a ton of direct flights to LA. So many! Many much many.

Dayton Moore Talking Head: Where is the detailed article on the huge Martin Maldonado-Mike Montgomery deal?  Who won the deal?  Does this make the Cubs favorites in 2019 and the Royals favorites in 2020-21?

Meg Rowley: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/royals-cubs-swap-role-players/

Fang Raphs: Who’s your favorite feel-good story of the season so far? I thought it was really sweet to see Bubba Starling get his first hit over the weekend with his parents there.

Meg Rowley: I’m just very happy for Ketel Marte.

Meager Owl: Evan White, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriguez, and Jarred Kelenic:  who has the higher ceiling, who the safest bet?

Meg Rowley: Kelenic/Julio as 1A/B for ceiling.

Meg Rowley: I think they’re also the most likely to succeed, but White’s bat looks like a real change and that defense is pretty special (yes, even for first).

Mark: Hi Meg. Is there some logic behind the fact that a HBP is credited to OBP, while reaching via an error or catcher’s interference is not? Thanks!

Meg Rowley: I think it’s truly the idea that you’ve worn one, which is work of a kind, whereas the other two are more akin to charity.

Hunter: Which team do you find most confusing? Which team could best be described as “odd”?

Meg Rowley: that Reds team is kinda funky

Meg Rowley: The Red Sox, despite the bullpen meh-ness, should really be better, even as currently constituted.

Mandy is rated 91% Fresh : Why are the rebuilding Royals trading for a 30 year old Mike Montgomery?

Meg Rowley: Probably so they can trade him again at some point.

!!!: Reading your player blurb in the Franchise Draft article made me remember that I really enjoy reading your writing.  Is it possible you’ll be coming back to write more frequently?  Or is that, along with NotGraphs, another thing I I enjoy that Cistulli effectively killed?

Meg Rowley: (David, you can just text me) (kidding) Yes. Now that Rachael is running the show at THT, there will be more Meg writing. Turns out doing two jobs takes a lot of time? So strange, and unexpected.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Is d’Arnaud better than Zunino?

Meg Rowley: Just very, very rude.

Guest: Trade Value series is great! Thanks to all of the FanGraphs staff for the work that goes into it

Meg Rowley: I’m glad you’re enjoying it. Kiley does a good job, Sean and Dan are unsung heroes, and we really couldn’t do it without all of our team friends who we won’t name, but who let Kiley bug them while on vacation for some dumb reason?

Bo: Will the Phillies become sellers?

Meg Rowley: Not meaningful ones.

Guest: Hey not sure if the “comments” means here or for that article, but it looks like RosterResources page is loading FV for “Top Prospects” at the top ish from an older version of the BOARD. For example, Deivi Garcia is now a 50 FV, but still lists him as a 45

Meg Rowley: Shall alert the appropriate folks.

Meg Rowley: Thanks!

Squid Vicious: What’s the mindset of an opener? Seems like using a struggling reliever (e.g., Chad Green, Jose Leclerc) as an opener can get them back on track.

Meg Rowley: Think it depends a lot on the guy, but it’s a really great question.

Meager Owl: But. Meg.  Domingo Santana, DH, has put up a wRC+ of 127 and has 2 years of control.  Who, then, are you going to acquire that will help you more?

Meg Rowley: He’s also shown that good years can be followed by bad ones, and the ball being juiced in the years that are good probably factors somewhat. Plus you really can’t use him in the field. I mean, you can, but it is a bad idea.

Archer: How do you grade Giannis’s hitting skills? Looks like a possible 50 Raw Power/0 Game Power to me.

Meg Rowley: Think about how hard it is to be really good at more than one anything, let alone a thing as hard as being a professional athlete. He is not a natural hitter, but there is no shame in that.

Clodd: You’ve mentioned here and elsewhere how rarely you get to just watch MLB games as a fan. Do you get to watch many (any?) MiLB games throughout the year for fun?

Meg Rowley: to be clear, they’re fun when they come with professional obligation, too — they’re just not exclusively fun

Meg Rowley: When I did four games in a day (granted not all of them minor league) in spring it was a truly really great day, but some of it was work

2-D: What do you think of the potential “steal first” rule?

Meg Rowley: No thank you.

Meg Rowley: I’d like to see it a couple times, but no thank you.

2-D: But If you rode the Amtrak you could have 70 hours of free time to edit FanGraphs.

Meg Rowley: “free time” and “edit FanGraphs” don’t actually go together in a sentence

Bo: Are there any players you find yourself rooting for on a personal level, for whatever reason?

Meg Rowley: I mean, on some level, I root for all of them on a personal level? It’s a near-impossible thing we ask of them, and they have to do it every day.

Lake: Giants recent blazing hot streak – anything to it?

Meg Rowley: Nope!

Meg Rowley: That was cavalier but nah, not really. They aren’t very good.

Leone for Third: When is Dave Cameron finally going to produce the long promised updated Future Forty at USS Mariner?

Meg Rowley: Would imagine he has, like, a million other things to do?

Roy: Thoughts on fried crickets?

Meg Rowley: The ones at T-Mobile are over-spiced. Trust your consumer.

Kris: If the giants pull themselves to .500 will they really hold onto dyson, smith, bumgardner, et al

Meg Rowley: Would be very, very surprised. I expect they know where they are, and are keenly aware of the state of their system, which is Not Great.

RodBeck’sHorseshoeMoustache: 2.5 years of Montgomery for .5 of Maldonado seems steep, no?

Meg Rowley: I guess, but I’m also having a hard time getting exercised about it. Might be a personal failing. The injury stuff isn’t unimportant, and Montgomery isn’t super consistent, and said he wanted a trade.

Daniel: Are there certain types of players that are benefiting more from the new ball than others? Or is just everyone getting a pretty even power spike across the board?

Meg Rowley: When Ben looked at this at Triple-A, he didn’t find strong evidence of benefiting one group, though it makes sense that Judge would benefit less than say Dee Gordon, since so many of his fly balls are going for home runs already.

Daniel: NLROY is going to be tight? Or has Peter Alonso run away with it due to his counting stats?

Meg Rowley: Don’t count out Tatis

Meg Rowley: Don’t you dare do it

thump a lump: Was the top of the 4th inning yesterday, Dodgers vs. Phils, some of the best, and the worse, baseball played this year? Showed why LA is running away from the pack.

Meg Rowley: I didn’t see that inning, but I’ll just assume that yes, that’s why.

Meg Rowley: They are very, very good

Meg Rowley: The Taylor stuff sucks and then there is Beaty, just hanging out waiting

BlackMirror99: Will Smith Dodgers’ starting catcher in October?

Meg Rowley: I’d be surprised but I also wouldn’t be surprised if he’s on the roster?

Cat Latos: Meow!

Meg Rowley: Do we know what happened to you? Are you a ghost?

Meg Rowley: Which is more impressive: cat typing or ghost cat typing?

Sanford: With so many players on pace to hit 30+ homers, do you find it at all surprising that no one’s making a real run at Bonds’ 73? Given today’s talent, fly ball-centric approach, and ball juiciness, it seems like the perfect opportunity for at least one or two players to go bonkers, but it doesn’t seem like anyone will push past 60.

Meg Rowley: Not really — I will work on a better explanation of why, but with walks and strikeouts also up, there just seems to be a natural boundary to me. Maybe I just have a hard time imagining anyone ever seriously displacing him.

Ryan: How would you assign division odds to the NL Central teams?

Meg Rowley: I think the order we have them in is about right, though I expect the Brewers will push to make me feel silly. Like that team.

LLW: favorite spoonerized player name right now? very fond of Pick Nivetta lately

Meg Rowley: Oh that is very, very good. Sad, given how his year is going. But very good.

Bo: With so many NL teams are within striking distance of a playoff spot, is this year’s deadline going to be slow? Few sellers, but there are only so many playoff berths to go around.

Meg Rowley: Am formulating my thoughts on this for a piece that’ll go next week

Meg Rowley: So I won’t give them away, because then why would you read that?

(not that) James: I counted out Tatis.  To be fair, I can’t count.

Meg Rowley: It’s ok. We’re forgiving sorts around these parts.

Meager Owl: Cal Raleigh.  Mini-Zunino?

Meg Rowley: Rude. I’m not sure to who, but rude.

Meg Rowley: Cal is hitting like he should. That’s nice. He just got promoted so we’ll see (again).

Asinwreck: Now that the White Sox are putting netting in pole-to-pole, will that spur the rest of MLB to follow suit before the season ends?

Meg Rowley: I sure hope so.

Sam : If Goldy rounds into form and Carp/Molina can be just 75% of their best selves, do the Cards become favorites to win the devision (assuming the rotation continues to pitch well)?

Meg Rowley: No, I don’t think so. Competitive. More interesting. Not favorites.

Benny and the Mets: Happy Tuesday Meg! On a scale of 1-100, how much does Zack Wheeler’s shoulder fatigue affect his return?

Meg Rowley: Really depends on the MRI and if he throws again before the deadline

Meg Rowley: If I’m an acquiring team, I’m not happy about his usage.

Tim: Soroka is eligible for ROY also, right?

kyle: nl roy.. Mike Soroka?????

Meg Rowley: Yes, he’s eligible and will be in the conversation I’m sure, but both Alonso and Tatis have been more valuable

Rexy: How confident are that Luis Urias will become an above average big leaguer?

Meg Rowley: apologies, had to attend to an editorial question

Meg Rowley: Well the guys have a 55 on Urias

Meg Rowley: and the Triple-A performance is compelling

Meg Rowley: and I make it my business not to get too far on the other side of Eric and Kiley’s evals, so good

Eugene: Hi Meg.  Can you walk us through your editing process?  How do you work with the writers to think of and assign topics, and how do you take it from there to what we read?  Thanks!

Meg Rowley: I make suggestions on stuff we should have a piece on, or think is interesting, but a lot of the topics come from the writers themselves, who tend to have a pretty good sense of what’s interesting.

Meg Rowley: They write. They tell me when it is ready. I do an edit, both for ideas and content, and a normal line edit (Dylan and Brendan also help with that). How much work and intervention a piece needs depends on the piece.

EndlessBacklash: I’m a bit surprised that Mike Soroka isn’t getting a bit more buzz. The dude is just 21! He doesn’t strike a ton of guys out, but he commands everything and has limited walks and HRs up to this point in his career (for what that is worth).  Plus, it’s not like he’s a soft tosser either.  I know we’re all about power/velo/Ks, but I get young Jake Peavy/rich person’s Kyle Hendricks vibes.  Thoughts?  Are concerns for his shoulder the main reason people are pumping the brakes a bit?

Meg Rowley: Kiley just put him at 42 on the Trade Value list

Ben: Will you be hiring a replacement for Sheryl?

Meg Rowley: Hopefully — stay tuned. We tend to doing hiring stuff in the offseason because it takes a lot of time to do right.

jose: Does Cleveland end up winning the AL Central? OR are the Twins real?

Meg Rowley: I like the Twins for it

Guest: Do you think Larry Rothschild is to blame for Paxton’s inconsistent season?

Meg Rowley: No

Meg Rowley: In addition to the injury, there are times when Pax’s mechanics will get out of whack, and I doubt the change in his pitch mix is being driven solely by Rothschild.

Meg Rowley: Ok pals, I need to get rolling. Thanks for the questions and sorry for what I didn’t get to. I’ll be back next week at the same time. Have a great rest of your week!