On November 14, 2018, Blake Snell won the AL Cy Young award. It was a close vote, but no one could say Snell didn’t deserve at least to be in the discussion. He compiled a 1.89 ERA, best in the AL, and his peripherals (2.95 FIP, an outrageous 31.6% strikeout rate) weren’t far behind. He was, simply put, one of the best starters in baseball — unfair, as future Rays employee Jeff Sullivan put it. Just more than seven months later, on June 29, 2019, Blake Snell’s ERA was on the wrong side of 5. By RA9-based WAR, he was barely above replacement level in 2019. A strong start yesterday moved his ERA down to a still-inflated 4.87, but it’s worth asking: is something wrong with Blake Snell?

Now, as my RotoGraphs colleague Al Melchior recently put it: nothing is wrong with Blake Snell. Still, it seems like it might merit investigating. Guys with stuff like Snell’s aren’t supposed to even be capable of putting up near-5 ERA’s this far into the season. Al focused on Snell’s strike-throwing, and that’s always a make-or-break issue for a guy with such dynamite stuff, but Snell’s walk numbers, while high, aren’t crippling. He’s actually walking fewer batters than last year, and his K-BB% is a career high. No, Snell’s 2019 has been alarming because of his inconsistency, and that’s worth looking into.

In 2018, Snell made only four starts in which he didn’t last at least five innings. One was his first start back from injury, which hardly counts. This year has been an entirely different story. Snell’s start on June 25, when he survived only 3.1 innings against the Twins, was his sixth outing of 2019 to see him not finish the fifth inning. There’s always batted-ball luck involved in short outings, but still, Snell’s 2019 feels extreme. Did he change something in 2019 that’s leading to more abbreviated outings?

It’s worth saying again that Blake Snell is incredible. All four of his pitches are weapons. His four-seam fastball is the fastest thrown by any left-handed starter, and it generates whiffs on more than a quarter of batters’ swings against it. Its rise and fade are near-unmatched; only Justin Verlander gets more total movement on his four-seam. Snell’s curveball, which he’s throwing 27% of the time this year, is awe-inspiring. Batters whiff on 55% of their swings against it, the second-best mark for any starter who has thrown 100 curveballs this year. His changeup? It generates the fourth-most whiffs per swing, 44%. He rarely throws his slider (7.6% of the time so far this year), but you guessed it: no starter’s slider gets more whiffs per swing than Snell’s. Read the rest of this entry »

12:03

Dan Szymborski: CHAT IS HERE

12:03

Dan Szymborski: Oops, scroll

12:04

Dan Szymborski: They probably should. While I wasn’t the least bit crazy about the Archer trade, my belief was for it to work out, it had to mean that they were going to double-down and finally adopt a win-now priority in the offseason.

Read the rest of this entry »

Our Playoff Odds page has a nice little feature that lets you display, for any two dates, the difference between a team’s playoff odds on Date A and its odds on Date B. Around the end of each calendar month, I like to use that feature to check in on which teams most improved their odds over the month that was and which lost ground. It’s a long season, and it’s easy to miss things. Here are the largest changes in playoff odds from June 1 to June 30:

There’s a story there. Let me start it by saying that 17 of 30 big-league teams saw no change at all to their playoff odds in June, or saw a change of less than 2%. Another five saw a change greater than 2%, but less than 10%. Of the eight teams whose playoff odds swung by more than 10% in June, fully half — the four teams at the top of the table — came from the same division: the National League East. To some extent, that kind of clustering is to be expected — when one team rises, another in its division must fall — but the relative quiet of every other division gives us an opportunity to reflect for a moment on what happened in the NL East in June, and what lies ahead in July. Read the rest of this entry »

Brendan McKay continued his fantastic season this past Saturday. Making his big-league debut with the Tampa Bay Rays, the 23-year-old left-hander retired 18 of the 20 Texas Rangers batters he faced. And his work on the farm had been every bit as dominating. In 66.2 innings between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham, McKay compiled a 1.22 ERA and allowed just 38 hits.

And then there’s the offensive side of the equation. As you know, McKay can swing the bat. Aspiring to be the major’s next Shohei Ohtani — sans the Tommy John surgery — the former Golden Spikes winner as a two-way player at the University of Louisville was 11 for his last 33, with three home runs, at the time of his call-up.

What is his approach on each side of the ball, and does he truly expect to be able to play both ways at baseball’s highest level? I addressed those questions with the 2017 first-round pick a few days before he arrived in The Show.

———

Laurila: Nuts and bolts first question: What is your approach on the mound?

McKay: “I’m a pitcher who likes to get ahead — just like every other pitcher — and force the action, rather than letting the hitter have any control over the at-bat. That’s basically it.”

Laurila: Are you looking to induce contact, or are you out there trying to miss bats? Read the rest of this entry »

In a bonus episode about the London Series, Ben Lindbergh talks to Darius Austin and Russell Eassom, writers and podcasters for the UK baseball site Bat Flips and Nerds, about their experiences at both Yankees-Red Sox games, why they think there was so much scoring, whether that brand of baseball was a good advertisement for the sport, the energy in the crowd, MLB’s outreach to the UK community, what could have been better about the weekend, how they became baseball fans, the growth of the UK fan community, where the game is played in the UK, the hardest part of explaining baseball to non-fans, how they would feel about MLB rotating between juiced and non-juiced balls on a set schedule, and much more.

Audio intro: The Magnetic Fields, "Swinging London"
Audio outro: T. Rex, "London Boys"

Link to Bat Flips and Nerds website
Link to Bat Flips and Nerds podcast
Link to MLB UK Community Twitter account
Link to Absolute Bunts podcast
Link to article at The Athletic about Baseball on Five
Link to Q&A about the UK fan community
Link to MLB.com article about the UK fan community
Link to Cut4 piece about the history of baseball in England
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller talk to Ross Stripling, Los Angeles Dodgers starter and host of The Big Swing, about why he started and enjoys doing a podcast, how Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman influenced his pitching style, how he uses data to prepare for opponents, and how he feels about pitching in an era with the highest home-run rate ever. Then Stripling walks them through what he was thinking and why he threw what he threw in six memorable plate appearances from his career, including a showdown with his nemesis Mike Trout, the first and last batters he faced in his memorable, no-hit debut, his highest-leverage appearance, an 11-pitch PA, and a big moment from the 2017 World Series.

Audio intro: Superchunk, "Throwing Things (Acoustic Version)"
Audio outro: Buzzcocks, "Harmony in My Head"

Link to Stripling’s podcast
Link to Stripling’s Rich Hill episode
Link to Stripling’s fastball height by month in 2016
Link to EW episode with Sam’s reaction to Stripling’s debut
Link to Sam’s feature on Philip Humber
Link to Russell Carleton on the benefits of fouling off two-strike pitches
Link to Stripling PA 1 (vs. Trout)
Link to Stripling PA 2 (vs. Span)
Link to Stripling PA 3 (vs. Pagan)
Link to Stripling PA 4 (vs. Moroff)
Link to Stripling PA 5 (vs. Jay)
Link to Stripling PA 6 (vs. Bregman)
Link to order The MVP Machine

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A number of years ago, Boston sports-TV anchor Bob Lobel used to say of former Red Sox players excelling for other teams, “Why can’t we get players like that?” Similar words are currently being uttered in Detroit, in regard to James McCann. In his first season with the Chicago White Sox, the 29-year-old catcher is slashing a robust .320/.378/.519, and he’s already gone deep nine times.

McCann wasn’t nearly that good with the stick in his four-plus years with the Tigers. When he signed with the ChiSox in December — a bargain-basement one-year deal for $2.5M, no less — he was a .240/.288/.366 career hitter. How did he suddenly morph into an offensive force?

“Honestly, the biggest thing for me this year is that I’m trying to be the best James McCann,” is how the Tigers castoff explained it prior to a recent game at Fenway Park. “I’m staying within myself and not trying to do too much. I’m taking my base hits the other way — I’m taking my singles — and not trying to hit the impossible six-run homer.”

The breaking-out backstop trained with Rangers infielder Logan Forsythe over the offseason — both live just south of Nashville — and as McCann pointed out, each has played with some great hitters over the course of their careers. Not that attempting to emulate one’s more-talented peers is always the best idea. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about the Twitter commotion caused by the Pioneer League’s Grand Junction Rockies (who are definitely not named the Humpback Chubs), an Angels outfield sign and Mike Trout, the curious rise and fall of Yonder Alonso, the promotion of Rays rookie (and two-way player) Brendan McKay, the upcoming FanGraphs All-Star Game event, the All-Star starters and how All-Stars should be selected, and J.D. Martinez’s comments about writers wanting to work in front offices. Then (40:33) they talk to FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich about his sabermetric analysis of the Congressional Baseball Game, why the Dems have dominated recent games, the two-way talents of Rep. Cedric Richmond, and why the game has resisted the polarization of politics. Lastly (1:06:21), they bring on NPR’s Linda Holmes to discuss her debut novel, Evvie Drake Starts Over, her love of baseball and fascination with the yips, whether a character with the yips is based on Brandon McCarthy, how the book has been received, her writing process and approach to dialogue, and more.

Audio intro: Greg Brown, "Grand Junction"
Audio interstitial 1: Hamilton (Original Broadway Cast Recording), "Take a Break"
Audio interstitial 2: Warm Thoughts, "Romance Novelist"
Audio outro: 10cc, "The Dean and I"

Link to Craig Goldstein on the Grand Junction Rockies tweets
Link to Humpback Chubs petition
Link to interview about the Humpback Chubs petition
Link to OCR story about Angels outfield sign
Link to Craig Edwards on the McKay call-up
Link to Dave Cameron on Alonso
Link to FanGraphs All-Star Game event post
Link to Devan Fink on All-Star starters and WAR
Link to Martinez’s comments about writers and voting
Link to Nathaniel’s article about the Congressional Baseball Game
Link to Nathaniel’s Congressional Baseball Game stats
Link to order Evvie Drake Starts Over
Link to order The MVP Machine

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Below you’ll find a roundup of notable moves from the past few days, as well as future expected moves and a Minor League Report, which includes a list of recent major league debuts and a few players who are “knocking down the door” to the majors (Mondays only). For this column, any lineup regulars, starting pitchers, or late-inning relievers are considered “notable,” meaning that middle relievers, long relievers, and bench players are excluded. You can always find a full list of updated transactions here.

Lineup Regulars

Arizona Diamondbacks
6/26/19: 1B/3B Jake Lamb activated from 10-Day IL.

Back on the roster after missing close to three months with a quad injury, Lamb started at first base on Wednesday and third base on Thursday. The 28-year-old, who has gone 0-for-6 with a walk and four strikeouts in the two games, could be in the lineup more often than not when the Diamondbacks are facing a right-handed starting pitcher. On the other hand, he struggled in 2018 and first baseman Christian Walker has been very good in 2019 (.818 OPS, 14 HR). Regular at-bats at third base could also be hard to come by unless Eduardo Escobar moves over to second base—he’s only made one start there this season—and Ketel Marte plays mostly in the outfield.

Depth Chart | Roster Resource Read the rest of this entry »