After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Angels, allegedly of Anaheim.

Batters

You may have heard of Mike Trout; he’s pretty good. I’m amazed that Andrelton Simmons still seems to be underrated by the media and fans. When was the last time a shortstop with a crazily hyped glove was underrated? You’d almost think that he was Adam Everett or Mark Belanger or Omar Vizquel when in fact he’d have been worth just under eight WAR over the last two seasons if he were a league-average defensive shortstop. Simmons has already snuck into the Top 50 all-time by my colleague Jay Jaffe’s JAWS metric, just a season from catching Dave Concepcion, Rafael Furcal, Vizquel, and the fringe Hall of Famer Rabbit Maranville. ZiPS projects Simmons to finish his career as the No. 14 shortstop by JAWS, just behind Derek Jeter and Barry Larkin, and just ahead of Bobby Wallace and Lou Boudreau. Andrelton is a superstar.

Albert Pujols is no longer a major league-caliber baseball player. He’s collected his 3000th hit and his 600th home run, but pretending that Pujols, at his best one of the greatest hitters of our generation, deserves a spot on the roster, let alone significant playing time, is becoming increasingly untenable. At some point, the Angels have to approach him with a plan to make as graceful and quick an exit from his playing career as they can manage, because in a world where the team was serious about fielding the best possible roster, they would be contemplating Pujols’ unconditional release. Even the creators of AfterMASH only needed two seasons to figure out they could only taint M*A*S*H’s legacy. The Angels have let three hitters go overseas this winter who project as more useful than Pujols (Jefry Marte, Jabari Blash, and the much-maligned Jose Miguel Fernandez).

I wouldn’t be quick to think of Shohei Ohtani’s offensive performance as fluky; in some ways, it’s just a natural power improvement from his previous year in Japan. ZiPS translated Ohtani’s final two seasons in Japan at .289/.356/.485, which looks a lot like his .285/.361/.564 with the Angels, with the power growth you hope to see from a talented young player with relatively few professional at-bats (he’s only at 1536 total now). ZiPS thinks he’ll have a lower average than in 2018, but he’s a real major league hitter.

Pitchers

If the Angels could keep all five of their starting pitchers healthy, the rotation would at least be acceptable. Problem is, essentially the entire rotation has an injury history, and many of its members have an extensive one. What’s frustrating about the Angels is that they have such highs in certain areas, but also several holes they’ve barely made a meaningful effort to go about fixing. ZiPS doesn’t see very high ceilings for any of the pitchers actually on the roster. If any team needed to go after Jake Arrieta last year or Dallas Keuchel this year, it’s the Angels. It would only take a few injuries for the Angels to have to turn to Dillon Peters or JC Ramirez (after he returns), which no contending team should be excited about.

Bench and Prospects

And here is why the Angels will fall short of the ZiPS seasonal simulation of the win total on their depth chart: the team’s plan B’s are absolutely atrocious around the field. The exceptions in the short-term are Jose Suarez and Griffin Canning, though I expect the Angels to give both a consolidation year at Triple-A (Suarez is still very young and Canning still has relatively little professional experience). Let’s put it this way: NRI Jarrett Parker is projected as the team’s fourth-best outfielder.

Things will get better. Jo Adell’s long-term projections are bananas, and the upside projections for Jahmai Jones and Brandon Marsh are at least…an apple? With a Brennon, two Brandons, and a Brendon in the projections, the Angels might as well sign Brennan Boesch to complete the set. The farm system has been steadily improving, but if the Angels want to stop wasting the prime of the best player they have ever had, and possibly will ever have, they really need to do better than dip a toe into free agency while they wait for the prospects to save them.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

In the first installment of the seventh annual Effectively Wild season preview series, Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Bryce Harper, Scott Boras, team meetings with free agents, the season preview series, the Super Bowl, and mortality, then preview the 2019 Reds (12:11) with The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans, and the 2019 Athletics (47:46) with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser.

Audio intro: The Sadies, "The Very Beginning"
Audio interstitial 1: Nick Drake, "One of These Things First"
Audio interstitial 2: The Coral, "Don’t Think You’re the First"
Audio outro: Beck, "Seventh Heaven"

Link to evaluation of last year’s preview guest predictions
Link to preorder Susan’s A’s book
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

There was already plenty to like about what Matt Chapman did as a rookie in 2017. But his introduction to the majors looked all the more encouraging upon further and deeper review. It’s long forgotten now, but Chapman got off to a miserable start. Through the middle of July, he had a wRC+ of 64, to go with nearly 40% strikeouts. The defense was there — the defense was always going to be there — but it was fair to wonder whether Chapman’s bat had what it would take to succeed. It was early, yes, but Chapman had been exposed. He seemed to be overmatched.

And then, in a flash, he turned the tables. The rest of the way, he carried a wRC+ of 120, and he trimmed his strikeouts all the way to 26%. The way Chapman finished set him up for a breakout and breakthrough 2018, with a 137 wRC+ and a superstar WAR. The strikeout issues were nowhere to be found. Not that Chapman exactly qualifies as a traditional contact hitter, but he makes enough contact to tap consistently into his power. Chapman put the rough intro behind him, and he hasn’t looked back.

With Chapman in mind, allow me to shift the conversation toward Franmil Reyes. Unlike Chapman, Reyes is never going to win a Platinum Glove. If he’s going to have a career, it’ll have to be a career in which he hits. But the good news is that he just made a strong impression. Like Chapman the season before, Reyes just used the final two months to set himself up for a dazzling campaign.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode 852

FanGraphs writer and ZiPS creator Dan Szymborski returns to the program to discuss, among other things, which teams’ projections he expects to change the most before Opening Day, the destructive force that is sibling rivalry, and baseball’s very cold stove. Dan also offers his official account of the Great Winter Meetings Old Fashioneds Incident, and we explore my limited, and quite strange, personal exposure to video games.

You can find Dan’s 2019 ZiPS projections as they roll out on the FanGraphs homepage, or by clicking here.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @megrowler on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximate 56 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

Update: The submission deadline for applications has been extended to Friday, February 8.

As the 2019 season approaches, I’m pleased to announce that FanGraphs is now accepting applications to join our staff as a contributing writer.

Contributors typically write three times a week. Familiarity and comfort with the data here on FanGraphs is a requirement, but just as importantly, we’re looking for writers who can generate their own ideas and questions while providing interesting analysis or commentary on the game of baseball. From free agent signings to statistical analysis, teams’ top prospects to in-game strategy, we endeavor to cover it all, highlights to lowlights. Sometimes we do that with a bit of silliness; other times, we’re more serious. But what all of our work has in common is a commitment to asking interesting questions and using rigor, creativity, and the latest analytical tools to find the answers for our readers.

This is a part-time, paid position. Prior writing experience is strongly preferred, though the bulk of that experience doesn’t necessarily have to be of the baseball variety. We know baseball analysis is more interesting and complete when diverse perspectives and voices are brought to bear on the questions and trends in today’s game, and encourage writers of all backgrounds and identities to apply. When applying, please include samples or links to work you’ve published previously, or some new, original content you feel best demonstrates your writing abilities and interests. You may also include a resume, but it is not required for the initial application. Please send us an email at wanted@fangraphs.com with your application materials, using the subject line “FanGraphs Writer Application – 2019.” The subject line is important, as it helps us keep all of the applications organized and ensures that yours does not slip through the cracks.

If for some reason you are unable to submit your application using the wanted@fangraphs.com e-mail address, simply fill out a contact form with the same subject (“FanGraphs Writer Application – 2019”), and you will be provided an alternate e-mail address for submission.

However you send us your application, please do so by Friday, February 8.

If you feel like you’d be a good fit as a contributing writer for FanGraphs, please drop us a line. We cannot promise to respond to every application we receive, but we’ll make sure every applicant receives serious consideration.

We look forward to hearing from you.

With most of the game’s top-spending teams apparently determined to remain on the sidelines instead of wooing either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado, the White Sox have been conspicuous in their reported pursuit of both. That’s a surprise, given both the team’s recent lack of success and their historical avoidance of big contracts, but late last month, general manager Rick Hahn acknowledged that fans would likely be disappointed if they didn’t land one of the winter’s big fish.

Given that the White Sox haven’t finished above .500 since 2012, and that last year, their second year of a long-term rebuilding program, they lost 100 games — their highest total since 1970 — it might seem like an odd time to spend big money. Then again, at a time when so many teams appear to have lost their checkbooks, if Chicago’s desire to spend is sincere, they may be tapping into a market inefficiency. Considering their history under owner Jerry Reinsdorf, however, it’s fair to be skeptical until the ink is dry on a contract for either Harper or Machado.

For starters, note that of the 30 teams, only five have yet to sign a player to either an extension or a free agent deal worth more than $72 million:

Read the rest of this entry »

12:00

Dan Szymborski: ITS CHAT TIME

12:01

Dan Szymborski: BUT NOT ALL CAPITAL LETTERS TIME EXCEPT FOR ME

12:01

Dan Szymborski: <full-on corrupt>

12:01

Dan Szymborski: When you come to my chats, you get my industry leading NoNipple© Guarantee.

Read the rest of this entry »

After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for more than half a decade. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Batters

The depth chart graphic for the Pirates (as seen below) pulls off a neat little trick. In this case, it manages to highlight both the strengths and weaknesses of the Pirates in one bite-sized scoop. Pittsburgh is excellent at finding just below average to average talent for peanuts, and average or better talent for whatever is a little bit better than that (perhaps Chex Mix?). It keeps the Pirates from ever truly returning to the Kingdom of Reekdom they reigned over from 1993 to about 2010. Having a roster Ryanfull of free one-win players, two-win players who are paid like one-win players, and three-win players who are paid like two-win players means you have a highly efficient roster. But it’s a highly efficient roster that will generally win between 77-85 games.

What the Pirates missed in their best days, and largely are missing today, was the willingness to add stars. The low payrolls of the rebuilding era never really gave way to short-term payroll ceilings well above the team’s long-term comfort levels. Everyone who has read me over the last five years knows I’m not a Royals apologist, but Kansas City did do this one thing much better than the Pirates did, even if the players Kansas City chose weren’t exactly my favorite. Chris Archer has star upside, but the Pirates had to trade players with star potential to bring him in. If the small market model doesn’t have a path to league-average payrolls, it necessitates an immense amount of success on the player development side. Sometimes, you just need to spend money instead of prospects.

There aren’t a lot of surprises in the hitting projections, but it is a very deep group. ZiPS has an amusing tendency with Pittsburgh to pick unnecessarily cruel, Pirates-related comps. Jung Ho Kang and Kevin Kramer are projected to be able to replace any injured Pirates infielders without the team losing a beat, and ZiPS remains a fan of Starling Marte over the long haul. This team may have the smallest gap between their ideal starting lineup and a starting lineup comprised of their Plan B’s of any team in baseball.

Pitchers

ZiPS is still optimistic about Chris Archer, but it’s now at the point where it expects him to fall short of his projected FIP. He’s only underperformed by 0.22 runs of ERA over his career, but ZiPS believes that given his defenses, he should have been over-performing his FIP, not falling short of it. The projections are increasingly optimistic about Trevor Williams, believing that he’ll continue to do better with home runs than most pitchers do with his hit profile. But it’s understandably not buying his .261 BABIP allowed in 2018 as near his actual ability.

Of the low-key reliever breakouts from 2018, ZiPS is a believer in Richard Rodriguez, a skeptic about Edgar Santana, and on the fence about ex-Giant Kyle Crick. The computer still does not understand why Michael Feliz isn’t much better at preventing the other team from scoring than his results to date have been.

Bench and Prospects

ZiPS uses a Total Zone-esque approach for minor-league defense, and it continues to back up the scouting reports for Ke’Bryan Hayes that rave about his defense. It doesn’t show up in the projections yet, but ZiPS sees a strong probability that Cole Tucker develops into a 10-12 home run hitter just as Royce Clayton, his top comp, did for awhile. Ryne Sandberg and Eric Young, Classic Edition, round out his top three. No, he doesn’t actually have a one-in-three chance of becoming a Hall of Famer. As sleepers go, the favorite of ZiPS may be Dario Agrazal, a well-built righty with a hard sinker but no real pitch that puts away batters (strikeouts are better than grounders). He’s not really on the prospect radar — the Pirates would not have snuck him off the 40-man roster if he were — but he does interest ZiPS and remains worth keeping an eye on. Groundball pitchers with hard sinkers who don’t strike guys out sometimes work out surprisingly well.

One pedantic note for 2019: for the WAR graphic, I’m using FanGraphs’ depth chart playing time, not the playing time ZiPS spits out, so there will be occasional differences in WAR totals.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site.

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2019. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams, unless I have made a mistake. This is very possible, as a lot of minor-league signings go generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS’ projections are based on the American League having a 4.29 ERA and the National League having a 4.15 ERA.

Players who are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information, and a computer isn’t the tool that should project the injury status of, for example, a pitcher who has had Tommy John surgery.

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by me, Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, I will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on a depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

Payton Henry grew up in a wrestling family in a wrestling town. That’s not the sport he settled on. The 21-year-old native of Pleasant Grove, Utah cast his lot with baseball, and went on to be selected in the sixth round of the 2016 draft by the Milwaukee Brewers. He’s seen by many as the NL Central club’s catcher of the future.

His backstory is one of Greco-Roman lineage. Henry’s paternal grandfather, Darold, won 10 state championships as a coach, and is a member of Utah’s Wrestling Hall of Fame. The patriarch coached 65 individual champions, including his son Darrin — Payton’s father — who captured a pair of titles. And while it eventually rolled away, the greenest of the apples tumbled from the same tree.

“I was kind of born to grow up a wrestler,” said Henry. “But then I fell in love with baseball. Once I realized I had a future in it, and started traveling a lot for baseball tournaments, I stopped wrestling. I didn’t have the time for it anymore.”

Being physically strong — weight training has long been part of his workout routine — and well-schooled in the sport’s technical aspects, he probably could have followed in his father’s footsteps. The coaches at Pleasant Grove High School certainly thought so. At the start of each year they would approach him and say,“Are you sure you don’t want to come out and wrestle?” Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about rumors and the offseason, then answer listener emails about forming a team from remaining free agents, the definition of “Baseball IQ,” small-market teams banding together, the best thing for a team to be bad at, incentivizing teams to win, and whether front offices are planning for a work stoppage, plus Stat Blasts about the worst drafts ever, Johnnie LeMaster, and Ketel Marte and closing banter about a dream and the upcoming season preview series. Then (53:49), Ben talks to listener Anne Marie Chua Lee about anime as a rich, overlooked source of baseball entertainment, touching on series including Gurazeni: Money Pitch, Major 2nd, Ace of the Diamond, and Princess Nine.

Audio intro: Foo Fighters, "February Stars"
Audio interstitial: Tom Waits, "Big in Japan"
Audio outro: The Move, "Vote for Me"

Link to free-agent depth chart
Link to team draft data
Link to Anne Marie’s store
Link to Gurazeni
Link to Major 2nd
Link to Ace of the Diamond
Link to Princess Nine
Link to SABR Award voting
Link to Jeff’s nominated piece
Link to Ben’s nominated piece
Link to preorder The MVP Machine

 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Facebook Group
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS