FanGraphs Baseball

Teams were understandably late to identify Howard as an upper-crust draft prospect. He redshirted, then only threw 36 innings the following spring and began his draft year in the bullpen, a relative unknown. He moved to the rotation in March and crosscheckers started showing up to see him much later than is typical for a first look at a second round talent. In 2018, his first full season as a member of the rotation, Howard thrived and late in the year his stuff took off. He was sitting 94-98 and working with three nasty secondary pitches. That carried over to his first four starts of 2019 but was interrupted by shoulder soreness that benched him for two months. After he returned, the Phillies moved him pretty quickly to Double-A for six starts, then had him finish in the Fall League. His stuff was great in Arizona. He touched 99, sat mostly 93-97, his curveball and changeup were both plus, and his slider’s two-plane tilt gives Howard a second viable breaker, capable of garnering whiffs when it’s located away from righties. He barely pitched at Double-A last year and is likely to start 2020 there, but if he’s good for a month, especially in hitter-friendly Reading, then a promotion to Lehigh Valley makes sense. If at any point the competitive Phillies think he’s one of their five best arms, he needs to be in the big leagues.

Most of the industry expected Bohm’s swing to be altered at least a little bit after he was selected third overall in 2018, but I can’t imagine anyone expected this. Bohm’s swing now more closely resembles Michael Brantley’s, not some strikeout-heavy slugger’s uppercut hack. His hands start high and stay tucked before he simply guides them down to wherever the ball is. If anything, this swing is less noisy than his college iteration, and somehow a 6-foot-5, long-levered guy with big power managed to have just a 14% strikeout rate at Double-A last year. Bohm has enough raw power to hit balls hard even with a low-effort cut, and he’s been able to hit balls all over the zone because of how direct his swing is. Can he play third base? I came away from my extended Fall League look more optimistic than almost every scout I talked to. I have him projected as a 40 defender there in part because Philly is likely very motivated to leave him at third as long as Rhys Hoskins is around.

Teams fell into one of three groups when evaluating Stott before the draft. There were the teams that thought that, despite his size and atypical throwing stroke, he’d stay at shortstop and hit for some power because his swing has natural lift. Those teams were highest on him. Then there were teams that thought he’d just do one of those things. Stott is a waist-bender, and his lower half is tight. I think he’ll be okay at short but acknowledge that all else equal, I’d be more comfortable with a traditionally graceful shortstop.

Stott’s swing is geared for low-ball contact. It’s pretty, and Stott can hit pitches near his shoe-tops to all fields with power, but he needs to prove he can hit velocity at the top of the strike zone, which he’ll face a lot. The swing’s length and bat path create doubt. This profile is rare: it’s a lefty-hitting shortstop with power, but one riskier than is typical for a college bat who has two years of strong numbers.

Clearly in over his head in Lakewood, Garcia struggled badly and hit .186 while splitting time at second and short. When 18-year-olds get sent to full-season ball, they either hit their way onto top 100 lists or require age-related grace for their org’s aggressive misstep. This is still a switch-hitting teenage middle infielder with promising gap-to-gap pop. The big-ceiling helium is perhaps out of the balloon, but this skillset still goes somewhere in the first 50 or so picks of a draft.

Morales remains on the starter/reliever fringe, and I think the latter is more likely. He has a traditional power pitcher’s fastball/slider combination, while the upper-80s changeup remains firm and unrefined, as does his control. Morales is a good athlete — he’s sinewy and strong — while his delivery is violent and difficult to repeat. One of those will usurp the other and dictate what happens to Morales’ role. I think he’ll be a ninth inning bully.

This is the most talented set of hitting hands in this system. Some of Muzziotti’s cuts have an immaculate, electric beauty; others gasp to make contact with a pitch he should not have swung at. He can rip his hands through and get the barrel on pitches inside, and he can spoil tough pitches on the edge of the zone. There’s rare bat-to-ball feel here, which enables a swing-happy approach that could use refining. Muzziotti’s exit velo data is not great, he lacks much frame-based projection, and he’s been hurt a bit. But he has a special knack for finding the barrel and it’s what I care most about.

Yes, Moniak’s 2019 statline was slightly inflated by Reading’s run environment, but he has gotten stronger and still has the bat-to-ball skills that drove his amateur profile. His pre-draft skill overview was as follows: contact-first bat, with a chance to be elite in that regard, instincts-driven center field, and a relatively narrow band of framed-based raw power projection. Moniak has filled out and the raw power looks like it’s going to settle close to average, based on sourced exit velos and my Fall League looks (which weren’t good until the last week or two). Org opinions differ as to whether or not a better approach can be taught. A more selective Moniak might walk and slug a little more, and swing at pitches he can hit, but not in a way that does damage. I have him in as a low-end regular, a .310 OBP, .420 SLG sort of center fielder.

He’s rough around the edges but Rojas is a scintillating talent with the best power/speed combination in the system. The speed plays in the field, where Rojas can turn gap doubles into web gems. Right now Rojas is content to smash balls into play with crude swings, then run like hell. He may be a good enough defender in center to just end up with a low OBP, bigger SLG output that still profiles, but the big ceiling comes when Rojas refines his swing and approach.

The right tail outcome for Medina’s profile is someone like Julio Teheran. Like Teheran, Medina is an athletic sinker/changeup righty, but he arguably has a better breaking ball than Teheran does. Before touching the vertical movement monolith and leaping into the new frontier of fastball understanding, I had boundless enthusiasm for Medina. It eventually became clear his fastball just wasn’t going to play like a mid-90s heater. The secondaries — a sweeping breaking ball in the 77-82 mph range and that changeup — and command projection were still strong, though. Last year, Medina’s walk and strikeout rates backed up on him. He has to have pretty fine command for everything to gel into a No. 4/5 starter; if that aspect of the skillset bounces back, he’ll move into that appropriate 45 FV tier.

Marchan still doesn’t have a homer in four pro seasons but he has premium feel for contact and is an athletic catch-and-throw guy who should stay behind the plate. He still struggles to squeeze good breaking balls and with ball-blocking, but neither is so bad that Marchan is sure to move elsewhere, though he has played some first base. Moonlighting at first may grant Marchan a weekly reprieve from the rigors of catching but he has to squat full-time to profile as an everyday player without power. The contact skill is special but needs another piece of the profile to develop.

The 2018 version of Llovera flashed a plus split, a plus breaking ball, and sat in the mid-90s. He seemed like a potential candidate for the Seranthony Domínguez treatment in 2019 — a quick move to the bullpen with high-leverage innings a distinct possibility based on stuff quality, especially if the heater got a bump because he could cut it loose in short bursts. Then Llovera pitched with diminished stuff and was shut down with an elbow issue in mid-July shortly after a bullpen trial. I’m staying on him as a nasty, multi-inning relief option, though it will require a bounce back in stuff.

Simmons was a toolsy, volatile high school prospect who had strikeout issues against varsity high school pitching. His stride and the way his hands load have both changed since he’s entered pro ball, which seems to have improved his timing and general in-the-box comfort. There are still some bat-to-ball issues, but Simmons’ raw power/bat speed and rapid improvements are exciting. He could be a multi-positional player with power, the sort Ryan McMahon has been to this point, but with a role that includes some shortstop.

Baylor’s ability to rotate with ferocity took a leap sometime between PG National and his senior spring. Teams were not in agreement about where he fit defensively, and some bailed on him entirely early in the process because he didn’t look great with the bat during his pre-draft summer, perhaps due to a lingering arm injury. He went bonkers as a senior, not just clubbing bad pitching but looking more explosive to the eye. He has a shot to stay up the middle, most likely second base, and hit enough to profile there.

This is a very interesting defensive and statistical profile. Maton is a lefty bat who can play both middle infield spots (and began playing some third base in 2019), he walks (10% career rate), and he hits the ball in the air a ton (33% career groundball rate). He’s also performed at every stop and checks a lot of visual, athletic boxes. The raw power, though, is lacking. Because Maton already hits the ball in the air a lot (he averaged 18 degrees on launch), there’s not a lot of room for cream at the top of his offensive profile that doesn’t involve him adding either strength or overhauling his swing in a way that unlocks power. At age 23, the former is unlikely, but with a fairly new dev staff in place on the hitting side, perhaps the latter is.

Realistically, he’s a good utility guy, but perhaps the feel for lift and the Triple-A/major league baseball gives him a shot to break out.

It’s safe to say that the temporary velo bump Jojo displayed a few years ago was just that, and that he’s going to have lean heavily on his secondary stuff to pitch his way through the lineup a couple of times. He’s athletic and fields his position well (handy, as he has a 50% groundball rate), his changeup is a viable out pitch, and he can mix breaking ball shapes (cut, depth, sweep). I like him in a fairly valuable bulk relief role, maybe someone who’d be an interesting piggyback partner for Vince Velasquez or some other inefficient power arm.

Scouts saw different versions of Miller at different times. He was into the mid-90s on the Cape but sat in the low-90s the following spring, reaching back for more when he wanted but appearing to dial things down to throw strikes most of the time. The quality of his secondary stuff and his intelligent deployment of those offerings should enable Miller to pitch at the back of a rotation, but he’s got a puncher’s chance to be more if he lives in the high-end of the velo band we’ve seen in the past.

Ortiz finished second in the Florida State League in homers but still managed to finish the year with an overall batting line below the league’s average. He’s more svelte than he was as an amateur, and while he’s still big-bodied, he’s stronger than he is soft. He even got a little bit of run in center field last year, but at age 21, Ortiz is built like José Abreu is right now and is probably destined for right field or first base. I once thought a DH/1B future was a lock, but Ortiz has stayed fairly mobile and at this point, we have no idea what kind of infield hands he has. The power gives him a real shot to be a regular, and while the peripherals make him very scary, Ortiz gets some grace for being 20 in the Florida State League.

Castillo’s fastball was touching 97 when he was 15 years old, and he received one of the highest bonuses of the 2018 July 2 class. He didn’t get into games until July, when he was 93-95 with a plus slider in 20-pitch outings. There’s no room on the frame (Castillo body comps to Frankie Montas) but there’s already plenty of velo, so that’s okay. Castillo needs command and a third pitch, both of which are likelier to come with reps he didn’t get last year.

Duran is an athletic, workmanlike catcher with plus raw arm strength. He receives well, is mobile, and will show you pop times in the low 1.9s. His power output is limited by an epicurean approach, but a very compact swing enables enough contact to support a backup catching profile.

Jones found a better slider in 2019 and went from a lefty with average stuff to one with an out pitch. His fastball command is crude, and he especially struggles to work fastballs to his glove side right now. When he can get it in there, though, the angle is tough on righties and helps set up backfoot sliders, which Jones locates pretty consistently. He has fastball-heavy starter stuff and repertoire depth, but below-average command will probably limit him to inefficient, five-ish inning outings, or perhaps move him to the bullpen. If his velo ticks up in relief, it could be a dominant pitch, as it already plays up due to extension and angle.

Irvin sat 87-91 as a starter and then climbed into the 90-94 range out of the bullpen late last summer. He’s a strike-throwing lefty with a good curveball and changeup, with the latter more often used to finish hitters while the curveball is a great get-ahead first pitch. He’s a high-probability member of the staff as an up-and-down swingman during his option years.

Lindow throws a ton of strikes with a bevy of average pitches, though his curveball typically has good shape, the kind that’s especially tough on lefties. He’s now barely the age of a college junior and has already had statistical success up through Hi-A. Lindow’s pitching approach is relatively fly ball-heavy, so Reading and the Triple-A baseball may expose some issues, but for now he projects as a backend starter.

Much of the velocity the industry saw glimpses of at times during Pipkin’s amateur career — and dreamt it would see again once he filled out — has arrived. After he topped out at 94 in 2018, Pipkin was up to 98 last year. His secondaries are still not very good (I think the changeup has the best chance to be an impact pitch) but one more brick is in place than was there a year ago and I still think Pipkin has a better chance to start than the older arms ranked behind him who admittedly have a greater chance of pitching in the majors at all.

A junior college reliever, Mayer is a very interesting arm strength/physical projection developmental prospect. He was still just 18 on Draft Day in 2019 and is already throwing 90-95, and his gangly 6-foot-6 frame portends more velo. He has some nascent breaking ball feel but is understandably behind from a development standpoint due to his college role, and he has barely ever thrown a changeup. He’s a long-term project but has ingredients with which to work.

In the year leading up to Sanchez’s 40-man equilibrium trade from Tampa to Philly, his velo climbed from 88-93 to the 92-95 range, topping out at 98, and that was in multi-inning relief stints and starts lasting as long as five innings. His changeup progressed, and he’s now the hardest-throwing lefty on the Phillies 40-man and may compete for a spot in the bullpen during the spring.

Garcia’s fastball has elite vertical movement. His fastball spins at 2700 rpm on average, which is incredible on its own but especially amazing at his velocity. He has a deceptive overhand delivery, his changeup and curveball dovetail nicely, and he throws strikes. I think he could be a Yusmeiro Petit-style reliever.

O’Hoppe is a well-built, athletic catcher who kept his head above water in the college-heavy New York-Penn League last year at age 19 (a 100 wRC+, mostly derived from a .407 SLG%). He’s adjusted to pro pitching fairly well for a cold weather prep prospect without elite showcase experience. He has the defensive shortcomings you’d expect someone this young and relatively inexperienced to have when handling good stuff, and his feel to hit is undercooked, but the power-on-contact last year was very strong for a teenager. He’s got a shot to be something, though the delta between the ceiling and floor is quite large.

A plus changeup, a re-worked slider, and mid-90s velo spearhead an option years trial relief profile for Dohy, whose excellent stuff is undercut by his poor control. This sort of stuff is still somewhat new for the lefty, who experienced a velo bump upon his move to the bullpen and has had his breaking ball overhauled. Plus he’s only 22, so he sits atop a group in this system with similar futures.

Warren creates really tough angle on his stuff by way of his high arm slot. His slider has blunt movement but enough depth to offset the fact that it doesn’t bite that hard. He can also create visually-pleasing arm-side action on the changeup and will clearly have the mix to stand up to three-batter minimums if his ability to locate that pitch improve.

Schultz is the hardest throwing pitcher in this entire system, sitting 96-99 in his post-draft outings after he touched 101 at Tennessee. He walked a batter per inning in college and has a very long, tough-to-repeat arm action that affects his control and slider quality. He has late-inning arm strength but needs to find mechanical consistency to be anything at all.

Nicoly Pina’s breaking ball is still clearly a work in progress — I’d call his mid-80s breaker a cutter right now, but it seems subject to change — but physically, he has a huge arm and creates nearly pure backspin on his heater. I won’t go too crazy projecting on the fastball because he is already quite strong-bodied and pitching in relief (and with an unusual amount of rest between outings), but it could be a dominant pitch because of its vertical movement/velo combo.

Lee Sang is an athletic, two-way prospect who didn’t have much amateur experience against elite pitching. As a result, he’s likely to need some early-career barbecuing on the complex. But he has a sweet lefty stroke, he runs well enough to give center field a try, and he has a plus arm.

Young’s size makes him an uncomfortable at-bat, especially for left-handed hitters, and he has the tools to deal with righties when he’s locating, as he often is. In essence, this is a No. 6 starter pitchability lefty with extreme size who might make him more difficult to deal with. He had Tommy John last May and likely won’t be back until late in 2020. He’s a strong Fall League candidate.

He’ll still bump 96 once in a while, but De Los Santos’ fastball has sinker shape that demands a better changeup with which to pair. The velo used to overpower hitters, but no longer. I’m curious how it might play in the bullpen but otherwise now consider De Los Santos a likely sixth starter type.

A pitchability teenager with a good changeup, Santos slings in average stuff, some of which plays up because of his funky, long arm action. His realistic ceiling is that of a fifth or sixth starter.

De La Cruz has a power forward’s build at 6-foot-8 and is an extreme power projection long shot. He runs well enough underway that there’s a faction of scouts who think he might stay in center field, which would take some pressure off the swing-and-miss profile. The selectivity is the thing that really needs to improve here.

Lin is a giant 20-year-old with huge, broad shoulders and a softer build. He has “reverse projection,” meaning he’s young enough to reshape an otherwise unprojectable build and add velocity through improved conditioning. Philly has targeted heavier-bodied pitchers in international free agency (Castillo, Morales, Santos) and Lin is another. His delivery is fairly loose and fluid, especially for his size. The secondary stuff is raw, but Lin had a strong statistical 2019 in a three-ish inning piggyback role with Williamsport.

Wingrove repeated the GCL in 2019 and hit .298/.374/.500. He’s a huge lefty power bat who obviously needs to hit a ton to profile since he’s a heavy-footed, 1B/DH prospect. His Aussie background gives him a pass for that first summer and makes the level repeat less of a red flag, but he still has little margin for error.

I officially have one foot in, one foot out on Silva. His frame, his mechanical grace and fluidity, and his feel for locating average secondary stuff are still positives, but the clock is ticking on the body and fastball projection. The command and secondary quality aren’t good enough to support the profile without more heat.