Before the 2018 season, two previously big-spending teams had plans to drop below the luxury tax threshold and reset their tax rates. The first, the Yankees, nonetheless had a successful season, winning 100 games en route to a Wild Card win and Division Series berth. The other, the Dodgers, had a more successful season, making it to the World Series for the second consecutive year before succumbing to the Red Sox (themselves big spenders) and Ryan Madson. In both cases, however, we have teams with young talent that look to be contenders for years to come, so the conventional thinking going into 2018 was that both franchises would drop below the tax limit for one year to reset their rates and then be active in what was long thought to be one of the most coveted free agent class of the decade.
So though the Dodgers have already accomplished their major offseason business – inking Clayton Kershaw to a contract extension, thereby avoiding the lefty ace hitting free agency – many expected them to return to something more closely resembling their 2017 ways, when the team spent a whopping $290 million between payroll and taxes.
The Dodgers plan to keep their player payroll below the level that would require a luxury tax payment for at least the next four years, according to a document prepared for potential investors that was reviewed by the Los Angeles Times.
. . .
Under the projections prepared for potential investors, the Dodgers would spend $185 million on salaries in 2019 and 2020, $191 million in 2021 and $196 million in 2022.
Overview
The Data Engineer will work closely with the Data Architect and the Baseball Systems team to maintain, enhance, and extend the Brewers data pipelines. You will be responsible for collecting and transforming data from various sources as well as preparing and distributing data for consumption by the department’s systems and analysts. The ideal candidate is an experienced data pipeline builder who excels at automating and optimizing data systems, with a strong preference for cloud experience.
Responsibilities
Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following. Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.
Create, maintain and optimize data ETL pipelines
Document, troubleshoot, and resolve issues with data processes
Collaborate with the development and research teams
Extend the Brewers AWS cloud platform initiative
Identify, design, and implement internal process improvements
Work with stakeholders to utilize data to create innovative solutions to baseball operations problems
Prepare data sets for processing and research
Qualifications
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.
Experience with programming languages such as Python, Java, C#
Experience working with relational databases such as SQL Server and PostgreSQL
Experience with SQL, including writing and maintaining queries
Experience with SDLC, especially Agile or Kanban concepts
Experience with source control and issue management, such as JIRA, Bitbucket, Github or similar
Familiarity with advanced statistical baseball concepts, including advanced statistics and player evaluation metrics
Preferred skills
The skills listed below will help an individual perform the job, however they are not all required.
Experience building visualizations with tools such as D3.js or similar
Experience with data analysis tools including Tableau, Chartio or similar
Experience with cloud services including AWS, Azure, Google Cloud or similar
Experience with DevOps concepts such as Continuous Integration and Continuous Deployment, using TeamCity, Jenkins or similar
Experience with job orchestration tools such as Airflow, Luigi, Hangfire or similar
Experience with Docker or other containerization technologies
Familiarity with Linux and non-Windows operating systems
Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B. A.) in Computer Science, Information Systems, or related field from four-year college or university; and one to three years related experience and/or training; or equivalent combination of education and experience.
Other Skills and Abilities
Capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends when necessary.
Language Skills
Ability to read and comprehend simple instructions, short correspondence, and memos. Ability to effectively present information in one-on-one and small group situations to department members and non-technical baseball operations staff.
Mathematical Skills
Ability to add, subtract, multiply, and divide in all units of measure, using whole numbers, common fractions, and decimals. Ability to compute rate, ratio, and percent and to draw and interpret bar graphs.
Reasoning Ability
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to apply common sense understanding to carry out detailed but uninvolved written or oral instructions. Ability to deal with problems involving a few concrete variables in standardized situations.
Work Hours
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.
To Apply
To apply, please visit this site to complete an application.
Position: Intern, Baseball Research and Development
Summary
The Milwaukee Brewers are currently seeking an Intern in the Baseball Research and Development Department. The Intern will work with the Baseball R&D, Baseball Systems departments and the entire Baseball Operations Department to deliver research and tools to improve decision making. The position requires a person who has intellectual curiosity, is a self-starter, and can communicate technical and analytical concepts effectively to non-technical people. Being passionate about using data, analysis and technology to improve decision making processes is also a key differentiator.
Essential Duties and Responsibilities include the following.
Reasonable accommodations may be made to enable individuals with disabilities to perform the essential functions. Other duties may be assigned.
Work with Baseball R&D and Baseball Operations to understand analytical needs and implement best practices for meeting those needs.
Investigate emerging data sources and identify potential for predictive value and actionable insights to improve decision making.
Develop visualizations and other mechanisms for disseminating analytical results to Baseball Operations, including consideration for less technically and analytically inclined consumers.
Continually survey latest analytical methods and advancements in Baseball Research to apply cutting edge methods and data to problems.
Understand current decision processes and information systems and offer enhancements and improvements.
Ad-hoc requests for reports, visualizations and research projects during the year.
Qualifications
To perform this job successfully, an individual must be able to perform each essential duty satisfactorily. The requirements listed below are representative of the knowledge, skill, and/or ability required.
Understanding of basic statistical modeling techniques, including, but not limited to, linear regression, logistic regressions, machine learning, etc.
Proficiency with an analytical software platform required (for example R or Mathematica).
Proficiency with SQL and SQL databases required.
Proficiency with data scripting language or ETL environment (Python, PERL, SSIS, etc.) desired.
Education and/or Experience
Bachelor’s degree (B.S./B.A.) in Computer Science, Mathematics, Statistics, Operations Research, or related field from four-year college or university. Advanced degree or current pursuit of advanced degree in one of the areas mentioned above or a related field is desirable.
Computer Skills
To perform the job successfully, an individual should have knowledge of Microsoft office software including Word, Excel, PowerPoint, Access, Outlook, and Internet Explorer.
Language Skills
Ability to read, analyze, and interpret general business periodicals, professional journals, technical procedures, or governmental regulations. Ability to write reports, business correspondence, and procedure manuals. Ability to effectively present information and respond to questions from groups of managers, clients, customers, and the general public.
Mathematical Skills
Ability to apply advanced mathematical concepts such as exponents, logarithms, quadratic equations, and permutations. Ability to apply mathematical operations to such tasks as frequency distribution, determination of test reliability and validity, analysis of variance, correlation techniques, sampling theory, and factor analysis.
Reasoning Ability
Ability to define problems, collect data, establish facts, and draw valid conclusions. Ability to interpret an extensive variety of technical instructions in mathematical or diagram form and deal with several abstract and concrete variables.
Work Hours
Business hours are Monday – Friday 9am – 5pm, however, candidates must be capable of working extended hours such as overtime, nights, and weekends, when necessary.
To Apply
To apply, please visit this site to complete an application.
The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Brewers.
ESPN writer and former Effectively Wild co-host Sam Miller joins the program for discussion of baseball aesthetics, what we watch for when we watch a game, and various matters of an editing nature.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @megrowler on Twitter.
I’m one week into my JAWS-flavored profiles of the 35 candidates on the BBWAA’s 2019 Hall of Fame ballot, and figured it would be worth laying out a tentative schedule for the series as well as providing a clearinghouse for a bit of business, including a very cool new feature that was put together by developer Sean Dolinar. That’s the sexy stuff, so let’s get to it first.
In the spirit of what we do with our annual free agent contract crowdsourcing, FanGraphs invites registered users to fill out their own virtual Hall of Fame ballots. You must be signed in to vote, and you may only vote once. To replicate the actual voting process, you may vote for anywhere from zero to 10 players; ballots with more than 10 won’t be counted. You may change your ballot until the deadline, which is December 31, 2018, the same as that of the actual BBWAA voters, who have to schlep their paper ballot to the mailbox.
The ballot is here and contains all 35 candidates. There are no write-ins, for those of you fixated on Pete Rose. I’ll write up the crowdsourcing results sometime in early January, when we’re all jonesing for Hall news in advance of the announcement of the official results on January 22.
As for the schedule, here it is below, broken into five-day weeks, as we’re not planning to publish these on weekends. Please keep in mind that the schedule is tentative and subject to change, particularly when it comes to the new profiles (denoted with asterisks), which take time to do justice. There’s also the chance that I’ll want to weigh in on current events, which is still part of my job here (hence the all-rerun week coinciding with the Winter Meetings).
Dec. 24: Happy holidays
Dec. 25: Happy birthday to me (yes, really), Merry Xmas to those celebrating.
Dec. 26: Curt Schilling
Dec. 27: Sammy Sosa
Dec. 28: One-and-Dones, Part 1
Dec. 31: My Virtual Ballot
January
Jan. 1: Happy New Year
Jan. 2: One-and-Dones, Part 2
Jan. 3: One-and-Dones, Part 3
As for those One-and-Dones — the candidates with no real shot at election or even making it to next year’s ballot — since I started the JAWS project with the 2004 ballot, I’ve covered every single BBWAA candidate, at least in brief, and I’m not about to miss any now. It used to be that I wrote up every candidate within 20 JAWS points of the standard, but in recent years I’ve made exceptions due to scheduling, and this year is tight enough that I may have to do so again.
Finally, some thanks are due. First, to my former colleagues at Sports Illustrated — namely SI editorial director Chris Stone, assistant managing editor Stefanie Kaufman, and SI.com managing editor Ryan Hunt — who worked with us to find a satisfactory solution that allowed me to continue revising profiles written during my Sports Illustrated tenure (they still own the copyright). Second, to the aforementioned Mr. Dolinar for putting together the crowdsource ballot and carving out some real estate for Hall stuff on the FanGraphs home page, and David Appelman for accommodating all of this. And finally, to our new managing editor Meg Rowley, who’s charged with the task of wrangling this series of epic posts while dealing with my excessive quantity of em-dashes, liberal use of semicolons, and wavering commitment to serial commas. Cheers all around!
The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2019 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.
They don’t make ’em like Roy Halladay anymore. An efficient sinkerballer at the crossroads of changing patterns of usage, his statistics, compiled in a career that ran from 1998 to 2013, look like numbers from another planet, or at least a bygone era, when viewed from today’s vantage. Consider, for example, that in an age of pitch counts, times through the order concerns, and increasingly specialized bullpens, all major league starters combined for 42 complete games in 2018, and 59 in 2017. Halladay — “Doc,” after Old West gambler, gunfighter and dentist Doc Holliday, lest the pitcher’s link to a dusty past escape anyone — had 67 for his career, 13 more than the next-highest total in that 16-year span, by Hall of Famer Randy Johnson (who completed an even 100 in a career that stretched from 1988-2009), and 29 more than the active leader, CC Sabathia. Halladay needed fewer than 100 pitches in 14 of those compete games, five of which were completed in under two hours. The last time any pitcher threw such a game was in 2010.
Halladay’s other numbers, which testify to his elite run prevention and value, are impressive as well, outdoing just about every active pitcher except Clayton Kershaw. Alas, our distance from those numbers is intensified by tragedy, because his whole life is now past tense. Just over a year ago, on November 7, 2017, Halladay crashed his Icon A5 light sport airplane into the Gulf of Mexico while flying solo. The toxicology report, published two months later, found that he was impaired by high concentrations of the morphine, opiates, and Ambien in his system. All of that seems foreign as well, given the model of control he appeared to be during his heyday.
It wasn’t always that way, though. The extraordinarily economical style that enabled Halladay to go the distance so frequently, to throw as many as 266 innings in a season, and to throw at least 220 in a season eight times — three more than any other pitcher in this millennium — owed to an exceptionally humiliating season. In 2000, five years removed from being a first-round draft pick, the 23-year-old righty was pummeled for a 10.64 ERA in 67.2 major league innings, still the worst mark for any pitcher with at least 50 innings in a season. He was demoted all the way to A-ball the next season, where, as Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci documented, minor league pitching coach Mel Queen spurred him to change from an over-the-top delivery that was so methodical Queen nicknamed him “Iron Mike,” in reference to the popular brand of pitching machines.
Queen instructed Halladay to switch to a three-quarters delivery, to speed it the hell up, and to shift his repertoire from a four-seam fastball/curve combination to a sinker/cutter combo, “two pitches that appeared the same to the hitter, except one would break late to the left and one to the right,” explained Verducci. The result: fewer deep counts and strikeouts, and one of the game’s highest groundball rates. Halladay’s improved command and late-career addition of a split-fingered fastball pushed his strikeout rates higher; four of his five seasons with at least 200 strikeouts came from 2008 onward, in seasons where he averaged 242 innings.
While those heavy innings totals — particularly the 1,007.1 he threw between the regular season and postseason from 2008-2011 — may have hastened Halladay’s departure from the majors at age 36, his body of work is exceptional. Though he never led his league in ERA, he finished second three times and placed in the top five seven times — remarkable, given that he only qualified for the title eight times! He led his league in WAR four times, and had four other top-five finishes, including one in a year that he threw just 141.2 innings due to a broken fibula. He made eight All-Star teams, and won Cy Young awards with the Blue Jays in 2003 and the Phillies in 2010, making him just the fifth pitcher to claim the award in both leagues. In that magical 2010 season, he not only threw a regular season perfect game (against the Marlins on May 29), but became just the second pitcher to throw a postseason no-hitter, doing so on on October 6, in the Division Series opener against the Reds.
Though the brevity of Halladay’s career left his traditional statistical totals rather short, his advanced stats frame a solid Hall of Fame case, particularly as the era of the workhorse starter fades, and the shape of his career stands in marked contrast to the other pitchers on the 2019 ballot. He may not have been viewed as an automatic, first-ballot choice before his early demise, but if he’s elected this year, he wouldn’t be the first candidate to gain baseball immortality in short order after the hard fact of human mortality was underscored.
2019 BBWAA Candidate: Roy Halladay
Pitcher
Career WAR
Peak WAR
JAWS
Roy Halladay
64.3
50.6
57.5
Avg. HOF SP
73.9
50.3
62.1
W-L
SO
ERA
ERA+
203-105
2,117
3.38
131
SOURCE: Baseball-Reference
Born on May 14, 1977 in Denver, Colorado, Harry LeRoy Halladay III was groomed to be a pitcher by his father, Roy Jr., a similarly strapping commercial pilot. He grew up in the nearby suburbs of Denver, first Aurora and then Arvada, in houses with basements big enough to allow him to throw baseballs indoors, into mattresses hung on the walls, during the snowy winter months. Roy Jr. even made sure that their Arvada home had a basement that could accommodate a regulation 60’6″ distance, and soon a pitching machine and a tire to throw through. Roy III became known for his combination of velocity, command, dominance, and “the meticulous quietness with which he went about his game,” as childhood friend Robert Sanchez remembered in 2017. “Roy was a third-grader who could play like a middle-schooler, but he never lorded his gifts over anyone. He and his father knew he was special in ways no one else would become, but they didn’t say it.”
Halladay’s dominance continued through high school, when he perfected a knuckle curve to go along with a 93-94 mph fastball. At Arvada West, where he also played basketball and ran cross-country, he was a three-time first team All-Conference and All-State selection, and two-time league and state MVP. He led his team to the Class 6A state championship in 1994, and never lost a game in the state of Colorado. He eschewed the showcase circuit of club ball and travel ball, choosing instead to work with his high school coaching staff, his father (who was still catching him in the basement during his prep years), and a man named Robert “Bus” Campbell, a local legend who coached or scouted 115 pitchers who reached the majors, including Hall of Famer Rich Gossage and All-Stars Jay Howell, Mark Langston, Brad Lidge, and Jamie Moyer.
Campbell was 69 years old and scouting for the Blue Jays when he began mentoring the 13-year-old Halladay, so it wasn’t surprising that the team chose him with the 17th pick of the 1995 draft (nine picks after Todd Helton, who himself would leave his mark on Colorado baseball and debut on the 2019 ballot). Bypassing a scholarship to the University of Arizona, he signed for a $895,000 bonus and began his professional career by striking out 48 in 50.1 innings in the Gulf Coast League.
After a big age-19 season at High-A Dunedin in 1996 (15-7, 2.73 ERA, 6.0 K/9), Halladay was ranked 23rd on Baseball America‘s Top 100 Prospects list in the spring of 1997. He scuffled at Double-A Tennessee and Triple-A Syracuse that year, but after a stronger showing at the latter stop in 1998, the 21-year-old righty made his major league debut on September 20 of that year, throwing five innings of two-run ball with five strikeouts against the Devil Rays. A week later, he no-hit the Tigers for 8.2 innings before Bobby Higginson’s pinch-homer spoiled the party, though he hung on for a 2-1 win.
After placing 12th on Baseball America’s list in the spring of 1999, Halladay spent the entire season in the majors, making 18 starts and 18 relief appearances. His 3.92 ERA (125 ERA+) in 149.1 innings earned him a three-year, $3.7 million extension, but his 5.36 FIP and 82-to-79 strikeout-to-walk ratio were ominous portents of things to come. In 2000, the AL’s highest-scoring season since 1936 (5.30 runs per game), Halladay struck out 44 and walked 42 in 67.2 innings while being torched for a record-setting 10.64 ERA. He couldn’t straighten out in two stints at Syracuse, and after scuffling in the spring of 2001, was sent back to Dunedin. Far from the spotlight, Queen helped Halladay adjust his mechanics to get away from a fastball that was 97 mph but “straight as a string,” and provided a tough-love challenge to the pitcher’s mental approach that he termed “vigorous leveling.” A book purchased by wife Brandy Halladay, The Mental ABC’s of Pitching by sports psychologist Harvey Dorfman — whom Halladay would meet in 2002 — keyed further changes in his mental approach. As Brandy told Verducci in 2010:
“[Dorfman] really taught Roy to focus on one thing at a time. When he gave up a hit, he learned to think about the next hitter. He helped him deal with those mental stumbling blocks every person has to deal with. The book and [Dorfman] helped his pitching career, our marriage, the way we looked at life in general…. It absolutely saved his career.”
After stops at the Blue Jays’ top three minor league affiliates, Halladay returned to the majors. Though cuffed for six runs by the Red Sox in a first-inning relief appearance on July 2, he struck out 10 Expos without a walk in his first start five days later, and finished the year with a 3.16 ERA (and 2.34 FIP) in 105.1 innings. That set the stage for a breakout season, during which Halladay went 19-7 with a 2.93 ERA (157 ERA+) and AL bests in innings (239.1), home run rate (0.4 per nine) and WAR (7.3). He made his first All-Star team but was ignored in the Cy Young voting; Barry Zito (23-5, 2.75 ERA, 7.2 WAR) won.
Halladay avoided the mistake of not winning 20 games the next year, going 22-7 with a 3.25 ERA (145 ERA+). He cut his walk rate in half, to a microscopic 1.1 per nine while leading the league in starts (36), innings (266), complete games (nine), K/BB ratio (6.38) and WAR (8.2) and striking out 204 batters. Again an All-Star, he took home the AL Cy Young, receiving 26 out of 28 first-place votes.
Halladay signed a four-year, $42 million extension in January 2004, but a shoulder strain and a comebacker-induced fractured left fibula limited him to 40 starts and 274.2 innings over the next two seasons, cutting into his effectiveness in the former, though he did make the AL All-Star team and rack up 5.5 WAR (in just 141.2 innings) in the latter, good for third in the league and the seventh-best total of his career (thus part of his peak score). Returning to a full workload in 2006, he remained healthy over the remainder of his run in Toronto, aside from brief stints on the disabled list for an appendectomy (2007) and a groin strain (2009).
As Verducci reported, in 2007 Halladay improved his command to the point that he could throw his signature cutter and sinker to both sides of the plate. “You see two different pitches coming at you the same speed from the same release point,” the Orioles’ Brian Roberts told Verducci, “but you don’t know which way it’s going to break. Think how hard that is to hit.”
Over the 2006-2009 span, Halladay averaged 32 starts, 233 innings, seven complete games, a 3.11 ERA (142 ERA+) and 5.5 WAR. He won 20 games in 2008, led the league in innings that same year (246), and in complete games three times (twice with nine). He made three All-Star teams, starting for the AL in 2009; placed among the league’s top five in WAR three times in that span, with a high of 6.9 (second) in 2004; and placed among the top five in Cy Young voting all four years, including second behind future teammate Cliff Lee in 2008.
Halladay had signed a three-year, $40 million extension in January 2006, covering the 2008-2010 seasons. But for all of his strong work, the Blue Jays remained in a competitive rut, unable to overtake the powerhouse Yankees and Red Sox, not to mention the upstart Rays; they hadn’t finished fewer than 10 games out of first place since 2000, and hadn’t returned to the postseason since winning their second straight championship in 1993. In what proved to be his final season, general manager J.P. Ricciardi explored trading Halladay at the July 31 deadline in 2009. Talks with the defending champion Phillies, reportedly centered around pitchers Kyle Drabek and J.A. Happ and outfielder Domonic Brown, did not come to fruition, and Philadelphia instead traded for Lee, who helped them return to the World Series (they lost to the Yankees).
Incoming Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos revived the talks with the Phillies, and on December 16, 2009, traded Halladay for Drabek and two other prospects, catcher Travis d’Arnaud and outfielder Michael Taylor. As part of the deal, Halladay agreed to a three-year, $60 million extension covering 2011-2013. That same day, the Phillies traded Lee to the Mariners for three prospects in a separate deal.
After escaping the AL East and moving to the non-DH league, the 33-year-old Halladay turned in the best season of his career, going 21-10 with career bests in ERA (2.44, third in the NL), ERA+ (167), strikeouts (219) and WAR (8.6), that last figure led the league as did his win total, his 250.2 innings, his nine complete games, four shutouts, 1.1 walks per nine, and 7.3 K/BB ratio. On May 29, 2010, he retired all 27 Marlins he faced, striking out 11 and completing the 20th perfect game in major league history.
After helping the Phillies win 97 games and their fourth straight NL East title, Halladay made history in his first taste of postseason action. Facing the Reds in the Division Series opener, he yielded only a fifth-inning walk to Jay Bruce and completed just the second no-hitter in postseason history, after Don Larsen’s 1956 World Series perfect game.
The Phillies’ sweep of the Reds meant Halladay didn’t start again for 10 days. When he did, in the NLCS opener against the Giants, he was touched for a pair of solo homers by Cody Ross as well as two additional runs in a 4-3 loss. He pitched six solid innings of two-run ball at AT&T Park in Game 5, sending the series back to Philadelphia, but the Giants advanced with a Game 6 win. Halladay’s consolation prize was a unanimous Cy Young win that placed him in the company of Gaylord Perry, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, and Roger Clemens as pitchers to win the award in both leagues (Max Scherzer has since joined the club).
With Halladay, homegrown Cole Hamels and mid-2010 acquisition Roy Oswalt already in the fold, the Phillies responded to their early exit by re-acquiring Lee via a five-year, $120 million deal, producing a rotation for the ages. Indeed, despite the offensive nucleus of Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, and Chase Utley in decline, the team won a franchise-record 102 games and a fifth consecutive division title in 2011. Halladay set new career bests with 8.8 WAR (the NL high), a 2.35 ERA (second, but with a league-best 163 ERA+), and 220 strikeouts (third). With a 19-6 record, he could have easily won a third Cy Young, but Kershaw’s 21-5 mark with a 2.28 ERA and 248 strikeouts captured the voters’ attention, and Halladay had to settle for second place.
He made two strong starts in the Division Series against the Cardinals, allowing three runs in eight innings in their Game 1 victory and then just one run in eight innings in Game 5. Alas, that run — produced by back-to-back extra-base hits to start the first inning — proved to be the game’s only score. The Phillies were eliminated on Chris Carpenter’s three-hit shutout.
Aside from a 1.95 ERA in five April starts in 2012, it was downhill for Doc thereafter. Roughed up for a 6.11 ERA in May as his velocity diminished, he spent seven weeks on the disabled list with a strained latissimus dorsi and only briefly returned to form. Over his final eight starts, he was lit up for a 6.20 ERA and an uncharacteristic 1.4 homers per nine. He was even worse in 2013, with four disaster starts (more runs than innings) out of his first seven, though his eight-inning, one-run performance against the Marlins on April 14 gave him career win number 200. Diagnosed with a bone spur in his shoulder as well as a partially torn rotator cuff and fraying in his labrum, he underwent surgery on May 16. He returned in late August, a remarkably quick turnaround, and had spots of superficial success, but left his final start after just three batters, unable to push his fastball past 83 mph.
In December 2013, Halladay signed a one-day contract with the Blue Jays and announced his retirement, citing major back issues including two pars fractures, an eroded lumbar disc, and pinched nerves. Changes in mechanics had transferred the stress to his shoulder, he could no longer pitch at the level to which he was accustomed, and he wanted to avoid fusion surgery — all understandable choices, particularly for a father of two.
Halladay had largely receded from view when the jarring news of his death in a plane crash broke. As testimonials to his playing career, his tireless work ethic and hischaracter poured in from around the industry, so did calls for him to appear on the 2018 ballot. A Hall of Fame and BBWAA rule enacted after the special election of the late Roberto Clemente in 1973 allows a deceased candidate to bypass the five-year post-retirement waiting period, but he can’t appear on a ballot until at least six months after his death. Hence, Halladay’s eligibility is on the same schedule it would have been otherwise.
If Halladay were to be elected in amid the aftermath of his passing, he wouldn’t be the first player to do so. As I noted in the introduction to this series, Roger Bresnahan and Jimmy Collins (both elected in 1945), Herb Pennock (1948), Three-Finger Brown (1949), Harry Heilmann (1952) and Ron Santo (2012) were all elected shortly after their respective demises.
…
Going strictly by his traditional stats, Halladay does not appear to be a particularly strong choice for the Hall. While there are 12 starters enshrined who pitched fewer than 3,000 innings (one of whom, Monte Ward, spent a good chunk of his career at shortstop), Pedro Martinez is the only one who’s been elected since Sandy Koufax in 1972. Save for a one-game cameo by Dizzy Dean, only two others, Bob Lemon and Hal Newhouser, even pitched after World War II, and both were done by the late 1950s. As a three-time Cy Young winner and a member of the 3,000 strikeout club, Martinez faced little resistance from voters, receiving 91.1% in 2015. He joined fellow 2015 honoree John Smoltz — also a member of the 3,000 strikeout club — as just the second and third starters elected with fewer than 300 wins since 1992.
Halladay finished well short of both 300 wins (203) and 3,000 strikeouts (2,117), with “only” two Cy Youngs. Where seven of the 10 pitchers with three Cys have been elected (all but Roger Clemens and the still-active Kershaw and Scherzer), only three of the nine two-timers have been elected, namely Bob Gibson, Tom Glavine, and Gaylord Perry. Of the rest, Corey Kluber and Tim Lincecum are still active, but none of the other three besides Halladay — Denny McLain, Bret Saberhagen, and Johan Santana — ever received even 5% of the vote. Santana went one-and-done just last year, though with just 139 wins and 1,988 strikeouts in 2,025.2 innings, it’s understandable why voters didn’t give him the time of day, particularly on a crowded ballot.
Halladay has better career numbers than Santana, and in some regards, better numbers than the other starters on the ballot who will draw consideration. While his win and strikeout totals can’t match those of Clemens, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, or Curt Schilling, his run prevention was superior to all of those besides Clemens. He never won a season ERA title, but his career 3.38 mark — even with his brutal 2000 season and a 5.73 mark after his 2012 shoulder strain — is 10th among pitchers with at least 2,500 innings since 1980. Five of the nine ahead of him are in Cooperstown, led by Martinez at 2.93. Adjusting for park and league scoring levels, his 131 ERA+ at those same cutoffs is fifth, behind Martinez (154), Clemens (143), Johnson (135), and Greg Maddux (132), all enshrined save for the Rocket. He’s ahead of Schilling (127), Mussina (123), and Pettitte (117), not to mention Smoltz (125) and Glavine (118), as well as Justin Verlander (126), the active leader. Kershaw (159) has only 2,096.1 innings, well short of this particular cutoff.
Halladay’s command and control were part of that. Even despite his early struggles, his career 3.58 strikeout-to-walk ratio is in a virtual tie with Mussina for fifth since 1893, when the pitching distance was set at 60’6″. Only Schilling (4.38), Martinez (4.15), Greinke (3.82), and Saberhagen (3.64) were better in that regard. Three times, he finished with fewer walks than games started, his stated goal for any season. Seven times he walked fewer than 2.0 batters per nine while qualifying for the ERA title.
Despite his shortages of innings and strikeouts, Halladay stands tall relative to his peers with regards to the advanced stats. His score of 127 on Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor, a metric that gives credit for awards, league leads, milestones and postseason performance — things that historically have tended to appeal to Hall voters — is 127, where 100 is a likely Hall of Famer and 130 is “a virtual cinch.” More than five years removed from his final pitch, his 65.2 WAR from 2001 onward is the highest total of the millennium, though Verlander (63.8), Sabathia (62.2), and Zack Greinke (61.5) have closed the gap. His 62.6 WAR over the course of his brilliant 2002-2011 stretch — 6.3 WAR per year, even given his injury-shortened 2004 and -05 — is 12.2 more than the second-ranked Santana. His overall total of 64.3 WAR is about nine wins shy of the Hall standard for starters (73.4), but he still outranks 29 of the 63 enshrined, including 300-game winner Early Wynn, 1960s star Juan Marichal, Yankees dynasty staple Whitey Ford, and strikeout whizzes Dazzy Vance and Jim Bunning. More tellingly, his total is ninth among pitchers who debuted since 1973 — 25 years before he did — behind Clemens, Maddux, Johnson, Martinez, Mussina, Schilling, Smoltz, and Kevin Brown, all of whom beat him to the majors by at least six years and, with the exception of Martinez, threw at least 500 more innings.
Via his seven-year peak score, Halladay’s 50.6 WAR surpasses that of the average Hall starter (50.3) and ranks 40th all time, ahead of 33 of the 63 enshrined; just four above him (Johnson, Maddux, Martinez and Clemens) debuted since 1973. Of those who debuted after, only Kershaw (49.6), Greinke (47.3), Scherzer (47.2), Verlander (46.2), and Santana (45.0) are with seven wins — one per year — of that peak score.
Halladay’s 57.6 JAWS isn’t as high as Schilling’s (64.1, 27th all-time) or Mussina’s (63.8, 29th), but it’s still eighth among that post-1973 set. He’s 43rd all-time, 4.3 points below the Hall standard but ahead of 32 enshrinees, with a career/peak/JAWS line that closely resembles Marichal (63.0/51.9/57.5), who needed 757.2 additional innings to get there. Among active pitchers, Kershaw (57.1), Greinke (56.5), and Verlander (54.8) could overtake Halladay as soon as next year, but having spent the past 12 months scrutinizing all of their cases, they appear to be on their way to Cooperstown as well.
While that last trio of pitchers isn’t done, there are no givens when it comes to shoulders, elbows, and backs. What Halladay accomplished before his body told him it was time to quit pitching was remarkable, and unique for his time. Mussina and Schiling aside, Hall of Fame voters aren’t going to see his like for awhile. He belongs in the pantheon of all-time greats, and hopefully, the BBWAA electorate recognizes that with the same efficiency that was the hallmark of Halladay’s career.
The A’s outperformed their projections despite a rotation that lost key pieces to injury. (Photo: DR. Buddie)
The Red Sox may have won the World Series, but in many ways, it was the Oakland Athletics that were baseball’s hot summer jam. Winning 97 games, the most since the heady Moneyball days of yore, Oakland returned to the penthouse from the outhouse. And quite literally, given that the 2018 version featured stories of a possible privately financed new ballpark rather than tales of raw sewage befouling the clubhouse. No, their…stuff…doesn’t yet work in the playoffs, but getting there is half the battle.
The Setup
The A’s were largely a victim of their own success, with their stathead shenanigans and a movie in which their GM was played by an A-list actor helping to usher in a new era in baseball, one in which every team in baseball has embraced modernity to at least some extent.
Much of the praise Oakland received 15 years ago had to do with a front office that was largely playing in a world in which many of their opponents didn’t know all the rules. Once the people you’re playing Monopoly with realize that they too can build houses and hotels on properties, things get a lot harder.
Baseball got a lot smarter and the A’s saw their edge harder to maintain. It’s one thing to be smart while the other guy is rich, but what happens when the rich teams are also smart?
Times have been lean in Oakland since the frustrating finish to the 2014 season, when the team lost ten games to the Angels over a two-week period in late summer, falling from a first-place battle to nearly missing the playoffs entirely.
The A’s have generally been content to just survive on a yearly basis, holding their head safely above baseball’s true pits of despair, but never keeping together enough of a core to win consistently. The front office is far from incompetent and has continued to cleverly acquire under-appreciated talent like Blake Treinen and Khris Davis, even if it’s frequently more expensive to do so than it used to be.
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, apologies for the delay this week. I’m deep into my Hall of Fame profile series, awaiting the publication of my Roy Halladay piece. Later today I’ll also publish a tentative schedule of the candidate profiles as well as a link to a very cool new feature: the FanGraphs Crowdsource Hall of Fame ballot, in which registered users will be able to cast their own votes from 0-10 candidates from now until December 31.
12:32
Jay Jaffe: As I await the delivery of my burrito, let’s get to it, with questions about both the Hall and the Hot Stove.
12:33
Syndergaardians of the Galaxy : Have the Braves already won the off season?
12:37
Jay Jaffe: I really like the Josh Donaldson deal; as we often say, there are no bad one-year contracts, and for a team like the Braves, with a lot of young talent and money to spend (see https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-profits-provide-glimpse-int…), this seems like a good move; if Donaldson is worth about 2.5 wins, it’s more or less break-even from a $/WAR standpoint, and if he’s anything close to his track record besides last year, it’s a bargain, and there’s no long-term risk.
As for the addition of McCann, I don’t have high hopes given his recent lack of durability, but he can still be a solid backup and doing so where his career began is one of those nice full-circle stories.
That said, the Braves still have work to do, including adding a right fielder and some kind of rotation upgrade, so let’s not anoint them the winners just yet.
12:38
Acunami: With your great work on hitters, how do you see young pitchers and their chances for the Hall? Buehler, even Soroka with his limited but good debut?
12:41
Jay Jaffe: Given the fragility of elbows, shoulders and backs, I can’t even begin to ponder the Hall chances of a rookie, because far too much can happen. Hell, even two-time Cy Young winners like Saberhagen, Santana and McLain are outside the Hall of Fame. There just aren’t any guarantees that even the best young pitcher can survive the brutal realities for even the 10 years needed to qualify for election.
A year ago, the Cardinals and Marlins agreed to a trade that would have sent Giancarlo Stanton to St. Louis. Stanton exercised the no-trade clause in his contract, and ended up with the Yankees instead. The Cardinals continued to engage the Marlins, likely preferring eventual NL MVP Christian Yelich, but ending up instead with Marcell Ozuna, as he was who the Marlins made available at the time. Trading for Ozuna made sense, as waiting for Yelich carried the risk of him not becoming available at all. Most Cardinals moves make sense. But Ozuna was not the Cardinals’ first choice, and the trade likely wasn’t even Plan B. Last winter was not the first time St. Louis missed out on its top choice and resorted to lesser options. If they opt to do so again, they risk missing the postseason for a fourth straight year despite not having a losing season.
Ozuna struggled with shoulder problems most of the season, which limited his defense and eliminated the power surge that made him a very good player the season before. The Cardinals jettisoned Leake in the middle of 2017 and had to give the Mariners $17.5 million to do so. Fowler put up a solid 2017 but followed it up with a miserable 2018 that brought his two-year WAR total with St. Louis down to 1.3. He’s owed roughly $50 million over the next three years and would require a similar buyout to the one that sent Leake to Seattle in order to be traded. And those were the good Cardinals free agent signings. The club has used some of its payroll room and guaranteed around $56 million to Luke Gregerson, Greg Holland, and Brett Cecil, and received a 5.62 ERA and 0.4 WAR in 137.2 combined innings from that trio. Read the rest of this entry »
Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Milwaukee Brewers. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.
All of the numbered prospects here also appear on The Board, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. That can be found here.
Hiura reached Double-A in his first full pro season, and then was clearly one of the top five or six talents in the Arizona Fall League, where he won League MVP. Most importanly, his arm strength is once again viable at second base. An elbow injury relegated Hiura to DH-only duty as a junior at UC Irvine, and he may have gone even earlier in the 2017 draft if not for concerns about the injury and how it might limit his defense. That’s no longer a concern, as Hiura has an average arm and plays an unspectacular second base. This is an incredible hitter. He has lightning-quick hands that square up premium velocity and possesses a rare blend of power and bat control. Hiura’s footowork in the box is a little noiser than it has to be, and if any of his swing’s elements are ill-timed, it can throw off the rest of his cut. This, combined with an aggressive style of hitting, could cause him to be streaky. But ultimately he’s an exceptional hitting talent and he’s going to play a premium defensive position. We think he’s an All-Star second baseman.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2017 from Martin HS (TX) (MIL)
Age
20.4
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
210
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
50
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/45
70/70
40/60
50/45
40/45
60/60
Lutz’s 2018 foray into full-season ball (.272/.348/.477 in May, June and July) was bookended by two awful months (he hit .180 in April, .215 in August) resulting in a .245/.321/.421 line. Already at physical maturity, Lutz’s huge power is the foundation of his profile. He’s capable of hitting long home runs to left and center, and he has the raw strength to drive out mis-hit balls the opposite way. Everything else he does is average. Adept at identifying breaking balls in mid air, Lutz’s moderate swing-and-miss issues stem from his mediocre bat control. This might limit his game power output, but the issues aren’t so bad that we’re worried about Lutz not hitting entirely. He has below-average range and instincts in right field, but his arm is plus. Lutz will likely start next season, age-20, at Hi-A. He projects as a middle-of-the-order power bat who provides little value on defense.
Despite his notable 2018 statistical output — 66 extra base hits, including 27 home runs, and 37 steals on 44 attempts at Double-A Biloxi — we’re still somewhat apprehensive about Ray and have him graded out exactly as we did last offseason, when he was coming off a terrible statistical campaign. Ray, long lauded for his makeup, made some adjustments to remedy the timing issues that plagued him in 2017. His front hip is clearing earlier, enabling him to catch some of the inside pitches that were tying him up last year. This has seemed to improve the quality of Ray’s contact, but it hasn’t remedied his strikeout issues. Ray struck out in 29.3% of his 2018 plate appearances and had a 17.5% swinging strike rate, the latter of which would rank as the 15th most frequent SwStr% in the majors last year. Ray swings through pitches in the zone fairly frequently and despite his prodigious physical abilities, his offensive profile feels unstable. His up-the-middle defensive profile gives him some wiggle room on offense, but he’s not a very instinctive defender and is closer to average in center field than one might expect given his speed. Players can succeed despite heavy strikeouts; Chris Taylor’s skillset looks an awful lot like Ray’s (power, strikeouts, and a pedestrian defense at a premium position) and Taylor was a 3 WAR player last year. Ray’s peak could look like that. He’s also similar to players like Franchy Cordero, Brad Zimmer, late-career Colby Rasmus, and an even longer list of hitters who also have lean years when they don’t hit and produce closer to replacement level. We expect peaks and valleys over the course of a long career from Ray.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2018 from Santiago HS (CA) (MIL)
Age
19.1
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
L / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/45
50/50
20/45
60/60
50/60
55/55
Even as an underclassman playing alongside rising seniors like Nick Allen, Hunter Greene, Nick Pratto and Royce Lewis, Turang did not look out of place. In addition to his a balletic defensive abilities, he was also a polished hitter who had advanced strike-zone feel. Turang struck out just once as a high scool junior and entered his final showcase summer at the top of his high school draft class. Then, he stopped hitting. After looking sluggish during the summer and fall, Turang’s placement among the first round candidates changed. He fell to the back half of the first round and signed for $3.4 million, roughly $400,000 over slot. After signing, Turang looked so much more advanced than the rest of the AZL that he was pushed, after just two weeks, to the Pioneer League. Throughout the summer and fall, he ran deep counts and walked a lot, but made little impact contact. He’s shown average raw power in BP, so perhaps he’ll eventually have the developmental option of sacrificing contact to get to it. As long as some aspect of his offense develops, especially as it seems likely to be paired with a great idea of the strike zone and plus shortstop defense, Turang should be an above-average regular.
Drafted: 26th Round, 2013 from Capital Christian HS (CA) (BOS)
Age
24.5
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
160
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
45
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
55/60
40/40
30/35
55/55
45/50
55/55
If not for suffering a left ACL tear during a rundown in early May, Dubon, who had a 23-game hit streak at the time, probably would have debuted in 2018 due to Milwaukee’s middle infield woes. Instead, Dubson missed much of the season and is on track for a likely 2019 debut. He’ll be the first native Honduran to play in the majors. Dubon was acquired (along with Travis Shaw) as part of a lopsided package for Tyler Thornburg. His elite hand-eye coordination and bat control drive a contact-oriented offensive profile. Since coming over from Boston, Dubon has thickened his once frail-looking frame and improved upon some of the things that limited his in-game power. He was rotating better early in 2018, with the timing of his hip/hand spearation being better, too, and he was no longer ditching his leg kick with two strikes. His 2016 Portland and 2017-2018 Colorado Springs slugging outputs are probably cariacatures of his true talent level, but Dubon should at least have doubles power. Defensively, Dubon is passable at shortstop and second base. He saw time in center field during the 2016 Fall League but hasn’t played there since. Lots of scouts like him as a super utility type, but Dubon will be 25 in July and he hasn’t played anywhere other than the middle infield at any point in his career, save for that Fall League. It’s more likely he gets a chance to be Milwaukee’s everyday shortstop in 2019 and, provided he hasn’t lost a step due to the ACL tear, we like him as a low-end regular there.
The Brewers 2018 Minor League Pitcher of the Year, Brown has now performed at every level up through Double-A. Trepidation regarding his ability to start stems from Brown’s wonky, violent delivery. But he’s never had issues filling up the strike zone, has a pitch mix sufficient for navigating lineups several times, and hasn’t had an arm injury, with his lone pro DL stint was due to an ankle injury caused by a comebacker. He’s likely on a path similar to Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta, where he’ll initially debut as a multi-inning reliever, but a fine three-pitch mix means Brown could eventually transition into a starting role, profiling as a #4/5.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2016 from Beltran Academy HS (PR) (MIL)
Age
20.1
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
200
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/55
50/55
30/45
40/30
30/45
55/55
Feliciano had a totally lost 2018 due to various nagging injuries. He was limited to just 42 games at Hi-A, and two in the Fall League. While at Hi-A Carolina, he struck out in 36% of his plate appearances. Feliciano also has one of the higher ceilings in this system. He turned 20 shortly before this list went to press, so his inabiltiy to perform as an 18-year-old in full-season ball in 2017 and a 19-year-old at Hi-A in 2018 is less troublesome due to his age. When healthy, Feliciano has shown bat control and above-average power on contact. If he can develop defensively (a process which has, thus far, been slow due to the reps lost to injury), Feliciano will be a catcher with a complete offensive profile, and a potential star. Teenage catching prospects are notoriously volatile and often, a decline in physical tools and/or stagnant defensive development starts with chronic injury. Feliciano’s 2018 is what the start of past catching bust narravites look like. This is a very talented, volatile prospect who could be at or near the top of this list next year or be off it in two.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age
16.0
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
160
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/50
30/50
20/50
45/50
40/60
50/60
Signed for $1.1 million in mid-July, Garcia had an eye-opening instructional league. His range, hands, actions and arm are all easy fits at shortstop, and he could be a plus glove there at peak. His entire offensive profile depends on his frame filling out. Garcia’s lack of strength is evident with the bat in his hands, but you can go kind of nuts projecting on much of his skillset, including the speed and arm strength, because Garcia so clearly has lots of physical growth on the horizon and is an above-average athlete. He’s so young that he wasn’t even eligible to sign on July 2nd because he was still 15. Were he a domestic high schooler, he wouldn’t be draft eligible until 2020, when he’d be just shy of 18. His development may initially be slow, but he has significant literal and figurative growth potential and a non-zero shot to be a well-rounded shortstop at peak.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from Crowder JC (MO) (MIL)
Age
20.6
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
50/55
50/55
55/60
45/50
40/50
90-94 / 95
It became clear during instructional league in Arizona that we were low on Ashby before the draft. Despite his clear issues– he has below average command caused by an arm slot that makes it hard for him to work in all parts of the zone–Ashby has nasty, left-handed stuff. He was up to 94 this fall, and the pitch has flat plane and lives in the top part of the zone, where it sneaks past barrels. Ashby’s two breaking balls need better demarcation, but they each flash plus and his changeup flashes average. He turns 21 in May, and should carve up the lower levels of the minor leagues with his stuff alone. His ability to locate and effectively mix his pitches will dictate his ultimate role and how fast he moves. For now, Ashby fairly conservatively projects in a multi-inning relief role.
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2018 from Hattiesburg HS (MS) (MIL)
Age
18.8
Height
6′ 3″
Weight
195
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/40
50/60
30/50
55/50
45/50
60/60
On the surface, Gray looks like a pretty standard right field prospect. He’s a projetable 6-foot-3, has present power and might grow into more, and he has some swing and miss issues due to poor breaking ball recognition. But upon extended viewing, Gray’s feel for center field is advanced and he has a better chance to stay there than is typical for a prospect his size. Gray has had strikeout issues in the AZL (he missed AZL time with a respiratory issue, not an injury), during fall instructional league and against good high school pitching. We’re skeptical of his ability to make sufficient contact but if he does, he’ll be a power-hitting center fielder.
Drafted: 6th Round, 2016 from Pleasant Grove HS (UT) (MIL)
Age
21.5
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
215
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
60/60
20/45
30/30
40/50
55/55
A bat-first high school catcher who was considered a long shot to stay behind the plate, Henry has made sufficient developmental progress as a defender and now projects to stay back there. Always in possession of a strong throwing arm, his once thick frame is now learner and more agile, enabling him to better handle the athletic burdens of catching. He also has huge raw power that he doesn’t often get to in games because Henry’s bat path causes him to drive the ball into the ground at a 50% clip and he’s also prone to swing and miss. Now that Henry’s defensive future is more in focus, he may just be a swing tweak away from a statistical breakout.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2014 from Calvert Hall HS (MD) (MIL)
Age
22.9
Height
5′ 8″
Weight
182
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
35/40
55/55
45/50
55/55
50/55
30/30
Stokes is Diet Khris Davis. He’s limited to LF/DH duties because of nearly unplayable arm strength, and he’s able to hit for in-game power despite blatant swing-and-miss issues due to his ability to consistently hit the ball in the air. Stokes’ extreme, pull-only approach to contact makes him vulnerable to breaking stuff down and away from him, and he is going to swing and miss at an above-average clip. But he’s also adept at identifying balls and strikes. There is some precedent for this type of offensive profile (low batting average, above-average OBP, and power) working in left field. It looks like Kyle Schwarber–though Stokes doesn’t have that kind of raw pop–or late-career Curtis Granderson. Stokes runs well enough that he could be an above-average defender in left field but he might also give back significant value there becauase of his throwing issues. He’s an odd one who we think fits as the smaller half of a corner outfield platoon and pinch runner.
Drafted: 5th Round, 2016 from South Carolina (MIL)
Age
23.7
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
195
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
60/60
50/55
40/45
92-95 / 98
Webb was a rare, draft-eligible freshman because he had Tommy John as a senior in high school, then missed all of what would have been his freshman year at South Carolina while he recovered. He was a 21-year-old redshirt freshman when he was drafted in 2016. Webb’s measurables don’t properly capture his size; his broad shoulders mimic the shape and proportions of a generic minor league batter’s eye. He has a mid-90s fastball and upper-70s curveball that pair well together, as the latter has sharp, vertical action and bat-missing depth. Webb continued to log innings as a starter up through Double-A, but he likely projects in relief. His changeup has improved and he was healthy throughout 2018, though his fastball control remains below-average. But the stuff is nasty enough that Webb could be a high-leverage or multi-inning reliever, especially if his fastball ticks up in a single, max-effort inning.
Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Richland HS (TX) (MIL)
Age
22.2
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
205
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/40
50/50
30/40
50/50
45/50
45/45
The amateur side of scouting considered Grisham to be perhaps the most advanced high school hitter in the 2015 draft. Cut to 2018 and Grisham is a career .238 hitter. The low batting averages he has posted have been due less to his inability to put the bat on the ball and more to an approach that is passive in excess. Grisham watches a lot of driveable pitches go by. That approach is also part of why he’s never run a season walk rate beneath 14%, and Grisham’s ability to reach base is part of why he’s still such an interesting prospect. There has also been an approach change here, one that may have impacted his plate coverage. In two years, he has transitioned from an all-fields doubles doubles approach to a pull-oriented hitter. In the 2018 Fall League he was fouling off pitches that he used to slice for doubles the opposite way. Still only 22, Grisham has physical talent (he once projected, for us, as an average regular) that may resurface with some approach changes, but this current iteration probably isn’t a big leaguer.
After initially looking like he was an egregious underdraft immediatley following his 2016 matriculation from Menlo, Erceg has been frustrating and enigmatic. The only constant has been his 70-grade arm. He’s nearly 24 now and some of our sources, no longer enamored with his bat, are ready to see him on the mound. (Erceg pitched in college at Cal and then, after he transferred, closed at Menlo.) When Erceg is going at the plate, he’s dropping the bat head and golfing out pitches down and in, or flaying pitches away from him down the third base line for a double. But as his career has drawn on, his swing is often ill-timed and its components don’t seem to be cohesive. He’s also not extending through contact as dramatically as he was in college. Whatever the reasons for Erceg’s struggles, he has hit. He has made progress as an infield defender, but he has to hit some to profile. He’ll be 24 in May.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2016 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age
19.2
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/45
50/55
30/50
55/50
45/50
55/55
Abreu’s combination of instincts and speed give him a fair chance to stay in center field, but he’s not a lock to remain there. He has above-average bat speed but his ultra-conservative lower half usage hampers his in-game power production. He might suddenly start hitting for more game power with a small change in that regard. Though just 19, Abreu has already added a lot of good weight since signing. His frame already looks maxed out, so there’s not a whole lot of raw power projection left here, and if there is, it’ll come at the cost of Abreu moving to an outfield corner.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2014 from La Grange HS (TX) (PIT)
Age
22.6
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
235
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Cutter
Command
Sits/Tops
50/50
50/55
50/55
45/50
50/55
89-93 / 94
Supak owns a career 3.43 ERA and has now reached Double-A. He has an average four-pitch mix that works because he has above-average command, and because his fastball, which lives in the top part of the zone, has flat, tough-to-catch plane. When Supak misses his spot it’s often in a place where he can’t get hurt, essential because neither of his breaking balls–a relatively new curveball and a slider/cutter that we have labeled as a cutter, since we think it’s best suited for use like a cutter–is nasty enough to live in the strike zone and instead are best when buried beneath it, or garnering awkward swings at floaters above the zone. He’s a near-ready back-end starter.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2013 from Dominican Republic (TEX)
Age
22.3
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
170
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
50/55
55/60
40/45
89-93 / 97
Diplan’s body and control have each backpeddaled since his electric 2016 season. His fastball velocity is also less consistent now than it was at that time; he’ll bump 97 at times but sit 89-93 at others. He walked a whopping 74 hitters in 118 innings last year, but still has tantalizing stuff. His changeup is plus, his slider flashes plus when he finishes it properly and sometimes, the velo is there. When Diplan is right he looks like a nasty, multi-inning reliever, but the arrow is pointing down.
Wahl, who turns 27 in March, was part of the two-player package Oakland sent to the Mets for Jeurys Familia last summer. He has just twelve career big league innings at this age mostly because Wahl missed extended development time due to multiple surgeries, including one in 2017 to remedy Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. His stuff was back last year. Wahl’s fastball sits in the mid-90s and will touch 99. He has a four-pitch mix but works primarily with the fastball and a power, mid-80s breaking ball that has bat-missing vertical action. A firm cutter and changeup are also folded in on occasion. Wahl has set-up man stuff but below average command and more significant injury risk than most pitching prospects.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age
18.1
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
150
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/50
30/40
20/20
70/70
45/60
50/50
Rodriguez is a plus-plus-running center field prospect with a slash-and-dash approach at the plate. He is currently unable to turn on pitches and do any real offensive damage, but his defensive profile, speed, and hand-eye coordination make him an interesting follow. Barring a swing change that enables him to turn on more pitches, he projects as a fourth outfielder, but at age 18, there’s lots of time for that adjustment. There’s a pretty rare skillset at the core of Rodriguez’s profile.
Bello signed for an under slot $550,000 as a second rounder. He’s a polished, contact-oriented center field prospect without typical big league physicality. He has several tweener traits, and might end up as a bench or platoon outfielder. A path toward everyday reps involves Bello developing a plus bat or glove, which are both in the realm of possibility as he has great breaking ball recognition and bat control, and good instincts in center field. He is one of several Hawaiian players drafted by Milwaukee since 2014 (Kodi Medeiros, Jordan Yamamoto, KJ Harrison, Kekai Rios).
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Dominican Republic (MIL)
Age
18.3
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
20/50
50/55
20/50
50/50
45/50
50/50
Ernesto got $1.8 million in 2017. His profile hasn’t changed at all since he was written up last year. He’s a switch-hitter with surprising pop for his age and build, but neither swing is dialed in quite yet. He runs well-enough to give center field a try for a while, but will probably move to a corner at physical maturity. He’s a well-rounded physical talent with little present feel to hit.
Drafted: 4th Round, 2018 from South Carolina (NYM)
Age
21.8
Height
6′ 5″
Weight
215
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Slider
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
45/50
50/55
50/55
40/45
90-94 / 95
The Brewers also acquired Adam Hill, the Mets 2018 4th round pick out of the University of South Carolina. Hill was dominant during the first four starts of his junior year, but his control disappeared once the Gamecocks began conference play. He struggled to throw strikes for two months leading up to the draft and fell to the fourth round. Hill does have good stuff. He’ll sit 90-94 and his big, 6-foot-6 frame and lower arm slot combine to create a unique look for hitters. His slider breaks late and has good length when located to Hill’s arm side, and Hill’s changeup has good action because of his lower arm slot. His limited command probably relegates Hill to the bullpen eventually, but he has #4/5 starter stuff if he can develop better control in his mid-20s, which sometimes happens to pitchers this size.
Drafted: 12th Round, 2018 from Kirkwood JC (IA) (MIL)
Age
20.3
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
30/45
40/45
20/30
70/70
40/45
40/45
Howell was a pleasant, toolsy, post-draft surprise whose combination of speed and crude bat control was too much for AZL defenses to deal with. A JUCO draftee would only turned 20 in September, Howell has some catalytic offensive qualities and a chance to play somewhere favorable on defense. He saw time at shortstop and third base during the summer and fall, but Eric and several scouts think he ends up in center field. Physical development will play a sizeable role in Howell’s future, especially as far as his bat is concerned. He will be the age of a college sophomore in 2019.
Drafted: 17th Round, 2018 from Long Beach State (MIL)
Age
22.0
Height
5′ 6″
Weight
160
Bat / Thr
L / L
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
40/45
55/60
55/60
45/50
86-88 / 90
Andrews is weird. He’s just 5-foot-6 and throws in the upper-80s but he has two really excellent secondary pitches in his curveball and changeup. He played two ways at Long Beach State and performed well (54 K’s, 7 BB’s in 33 pro innings) after signing. We don’t know what he is but we think it’s something.
Zhao is one of very few Chinese players in pro ball–we know of two others: Itchy Xu (BAL) and Hai-Cheng Gong (PIT)–and is the most talented. The 17-year-old broke off some ferocious curveballs during instructional league that elicited verbal expletives from onlooking scouts. His fastball control is very raw. Right now, Zhao is just a very young developmental project who can really spin it.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2012 from Torrance HS (CA) (MIL)
Age
25.0
Height
6′ 0″
Weight
185
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit
Raw Power
Game Power
Run
Fielding
Throw
50/50
45/45
40/45
55/55
55/55
50/50
Taylor’s performance tapered off in 2014 and he spent several years slugging about .330, then spent much of 2017 injured. He had a statistical breakout at Triple-A in 2018 that could be attributed to the hitting environment at Colorado Springs, but Taylor has made significant changes to his swing and the uptick in power could be a PCL cariacature of real, meaningful change. Once a wide-based, no-stride swinger, Taylor now has a big leg kick and his batted ball profile has changed dramatically between 2016 (the last, reliably large sample we had) and now. He was added to the 40-man this offseason and is a sleeper breakout candidate.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2011 from Locust Grove HS (OK) (HOU)
Age
25.9
Height
6′ 4″
Weight
225
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
40
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball
Curveball
Changeup
Command
Sits/Tops
60/60
45/45
55/55
45/45
93-96 / 97
Houser finally made it back to the majors in 2018 after missing significant time due to Tommy John. During that time, he remade his body into a lean, more flexible vessel and his velo was up a bit; instead of 92-95, he was sitting at 94-95 last year. His curveball didn’t have good finish during his brief big league time but it has been average and flashing above in the past. His changeup is now clearly his best secondary offering. Houser’s fastball plays down a bit due to lack of movement and it’d be nice to see the breaking ball bounce back, but for now he projects as a middle reliever.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2018 from Dominican (MIL)
Age
16.6
Height
6′ 2″
Weight
180
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
A $1.1 million signe from July, Fernandez is a R/R corner outfield projection bat with present feel to hit. He’s already quite a bit more physical now than he was as an amateur, so the rest of the power might come pretty quickly.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Venezuela (BOS)
Age
19.8
Height
6′ 1″
Weight
155
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
35+
Pinero was originally with Boston but was granted free agency as part of their 2016 international bonus bundling scandal. He’s a plus defensive shortstop–he has elite hands, but his range and athleticism are suspect–with very little bat. Pinero has a lanky frame, but he’s a slow-twitch hitter with below average bat speed and he won’t necessarily grow into offensive impact. His likely range of positive outcoms spans from glove-first bench infielder to low-end regular.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2015 from Dominican Republic (BOS)
Age
19.6
Height
5′ 10″
Weight
155
Bat / Thr
S / R
FV
35+
Coca is an average middle infield defender with below-average offensive tools. If those grow to average, he could sneak up on us and be an everyday player. If they continue to hang in the 40/45 area, Coca will be a utility option.
Signed: July 2nd Period, 2017 from Venezuela (MIL)
Age
17.9
Height
5′ 11″
Weight
150
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
Castillo signed for $140,000 in 2017. His swing has a good foundation, he’s an athletic middle infield defender, and his frame has some room for mass as he matures. He had a good fall instructional league showing.
Long a notable amateur prospect due to his projectable, wide receiverish frame, Ward has made significant mechanical progress and is already much more of a refined baseball player than he was a senior in high school. He’s still mostly a lottery ticket frame who you’re hoping grows into big power, but now his underlying skills have started to develop.
Drafted: 2nd Round, 2017 from Vestavia Hills HS (AL) (MIL)
Age
20.1
Height
6′ 6″
Weight
175
Bat / Thr
R / R
FV
35+
Lemons was up to 96 in high school, often sitting in the low-90s. He was 90-92 this fall with an average slider that has horizontal wipe during instructs. He’s a big-framed projection arm whose stuff hasn’t ascended yet.
Nottingham will turn 24 this offseason. He has plus power but needs to improve behind the plate in order to profile as a power-over-hit backup. Weston Wilson has above-average raw power and can play the corner outfield spots, first base, and some third. He could be a right-handed corner bench bat. Gatewood has plus-plus raw power and has moved from shortstop to third base to first base as a pro. He’s a R/R first baseman with huge power and strikeout issues. Fringe 40-man candidates like that sometimes bloom late, or at least get a shot at some point. McClanahan signed for $1 million as an 11th rounder in 2016. He’s a big-framed projection bat who is already seeing more reps at first than at third. He has premium makeup. Jaraba was a $1 million signee this year. He’s a R/R power bat who looked like a future first baseman this fall. David Fry was the club’s 7th rounder out of Northwestern State. He has above-average power and hasn’t caught all that much, in part because he had TJ in college. Ernesto Martinez is built like a Greek god and has 70 raw power but his swing has not progressed and it’s currently unusable.
Rasmussen has had two TJs. He sits 93-96 with average secondary stuff and below average command when healthy. Kirby has had several injury issues and now has a 40 fastball, but his repertoire is deep and he has a 55 curveball. Torres-Costa is a situational lefty who likely would have been in the big leagues in 2018 if not for his injury. Walters was 92-94, touching 95 in the fall and struggled to throw strikes. Devin Williams is 92-93 with a plus curveball. Pennington retired when he needed his second TJ.
Olson signed for $400,000 and was 92-93, touching 94 with a plus curveball in the fall. Benoit has scattershot command of an average fastball and a plus breaking ball. Jarvis has an above-average changeup.
Sunitsch no-hit the University of Oregon in April. He’s a low-slot lefty with a good changeup. Hitzen strides way, way open, toward the first base side, and the ball appears to hitters out of where his stomach was when he came set. Both are release-point oddities who have performed so far.
Valerio, who turned 18 in December, was acquired as part of the package for Keon Broxton in January. He hit .319/.409/.433 in the DSL during his first pro season and is a skills-over-tools type of prospect who is more polished than most of his peers. He has promising feel for contact and is athletically viable at second base but, at 5-foot-7, 165, he’s less likely to grow into more impressive physical tools than someone with some length and room on their frame. Players like this either hit enough to play second base every day or they don’t, and they end up as org guys. Valerio walked more than he struck out last year, and those types of peripheral indicators are great evidence to support a case that a player will indeed hit that much, but not when we’re talking about DSL stats, so we’re hesitant give significant weight to Valerio’s early-career numbers.
System Overview
This system looks very weak now that several 45 FV or better prospects have either graduated or been traded, and the farm alone doesn’t project a clear picture of the youthful health of this franchise. The focus now shifts to the collective development of the large number of teenagers in the 40 and 35+ FV tiers. Another sizable wave of talent — position players this time — could arrive in Milwaukee in three to five years. The organization’s recent history of hitter development isn’t all that inspiring; most of Milwaukee’s big league position players came from outside the org, and Orlando Arcia hasn’t made the kind of offensive impact that was expected of him as a prospect. Grisham and Erceg have been frustrating and have gone backwards. Things may not bode well for several of the hitters in this system who clearly need improvement in some way to progress like Milwaukee’s pitching has. The Brewers love idiosyncratic pitchers whose stuff plays up because of one weird thing or another, and they’ve had success developing them.
