Eric Longenhagen Chat: 11/1/18

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November 1, 2018
2:02
Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning from Tempe. Let’s begin our final pre-prospect list chat.
2:02
mark: Do you know if Anderson Espinoza has started throwing, and if so how he looks?
2:03
Eric A Longenhagen: He did not throw during Padres instructs. He may be throwing off a mound but, if he is, it’s private, so I don’t know how he looks.
2:03
Josh Nelson: Hey Eric. How do Luis Basabe and Luis Robert look so far?
2:04
Eric A Longenhagen: LouBob has been fine, Basabe has not been great.
2:04
mark: Do you guys have any planned draft coverage coming up?

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Elegy for ’18 – Seattle Mariners

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November 1, 2018
Elegy for '18 Series

Seattle will likely have to replace the bat of Nelson Cruz.
(Photo: Keith Allison)

One would think that setting a 15-year record for wins would feel more satisfying than it ultimately did for the 2018 edition of the Mariners. Alas, the world is as cruel as the Wheel of Fortune suggests: consonants are free but you have to pay for vowels. The A’s finished ahead of the M’s, giving the former club a place in the Wild Card Game.

The Setup

One of the defining features of the Seattle Mariners during the Jerry Dipoto regime is that the payroll has increased — from among the bottom 10 in 2012-13 to the back of the top 10 in 2018 — even though the club hasn’t been particularly active in free agency or signing young talent to long-term extensions.

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Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 11/1/18

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November 1, 2018
12:02
Jay Jaffe: Hey folks, good afternoon and welcome to today’s first chat of the long, dark offseason. I’m still catching my breath from an exhausting month and working on some stuff that has yet to see the light of day, including an ESPN-Plus piece on the Defensive Players of the Year, a piece on the passing of the great Willie McCovey, and my contributions to our Top 50 Free Agents list. The Jaffe-Span household is also battling various stages of a low-grade but stubborn cold, and all of the Haribo gummies left over from Halloween can do only so much.
12:03
stever20: what % chance do you think the Nats have of retaining Harper?
12:07
Jay Jaffe: That’s a very good question. it wasn’t entirely clear whether Scott Boras was merely joking when he said the other day that a deal was “already completed and done, but Bryce has told me that he wanted to tell you personally.” https://nypost.com/2018/10/29/scott-boras-drops-improbable-bryce-harpe…

If that’s true, the only team that could be with is the Nationals, who do enjoy a particularly chummy relationship with Boras such that Stephen Strasburg actually went the extension route rather than free agency. Most believe Boras had tongue in cheek when he said that. Still, I think that there’s a reasonable chance, somewhere between 33% and 50%, that Bryce stays in Washington.
12:08
Guille: hi Jay! What do you say are the chances Yankees don´t sign either Machado or Harper? It´s gotta be higher than 50% considering neither is a great fit for the team.
12:10
Jay Jaffe: I’d put it around 50%. Given the re-signing of Gardner, even at fourth outfielder money, as well as the continued presence of Judge, Hicks and Stanton and the pending arrival of Clint Frazier, Harper doesn’t make much sense. Machado makes more sense given Didi Gregorius’s Tommy John surgery. The team loves him some Didi but he’s going to miss roughly half of his final season under club control. If they really want Machado, it’s not just to alleviate what might be a three-month absence.
12:10
Guille: hi Jay! IF Kershaw extends his contract with the Dodgers, is something like 5/175 in the ballpark?

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Let’s Review Some Reader Predictions

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November 1, 2018

Nearly eight months ago, I asked you to predict the future. Here are the words I used to introduce that piece:

In 2017, the fastball rate fell again. It’s been falling for some time now, but in 2017 it fell again, from 56.7% in 2016 to 55.6% last year. There’s some reason to think that the drop in the fastball rate is linked to the increase in baseball’s increasing swinging-strike rate, which in turn is linked to the rise in strikeouts and hit batsmen, and on and on and on. Baseball is a complex system of action and reaction, and small changes can grow large quickly.

So this year, I want to know: what do you think will happen to some of baseball’s key stats, league-wide, in 2018? Maybe you think home-run rates will go up and strikeouts will fall. Maybe you think if home-run rates go up then strikeout rates have to fall. Maybe you think it’s the other way around. I don’t know. But I want to hear from you, and most of all I want to hear why you think certain changes are linked, and others aren’t.

Below are a series of tables featuring 10 years’ worth of data for a few key metrics. I’ve also included percentage changes year over year. Below each table is a poll which asks you to indicate whether you think a given statistic will increase or decrease — and, if so, by how much. Answer each poll, if you wish, and then also indicate in the comments why you voted the way you did on one statistic and not others. In a year or so, I’ll come back to this and we’ll talk about it as a group. Maybe it’ll be interesting. Maybe it won’t! We’ll see.

A lot has happened since I wrote those words: I’ve gotten married, my wife and I moved from Boston to Seattle, and I became a telecommuter (in my day job; this one has always been virtual-only). Oh, and the 2018 season came and went. The future I asked you to predict is now a part of the history books. Let’s see how good you were at reading ahead.

Note: a reader of the March post suggested he/she was unsure if answers should be submitted in percent or percentage point. It’s possible, as a result, that a few ballots could distort the overall results. Because I presented all the original deltas in the form of a percent, however, that is how I have once again presented them here. Fortunately, none of this matters at all!

Fastball Rate

Fastball Rate, 2008-17
Year FB% FB% Delta
2008 60.7% n/a
2009 59.7% -1.65%
2010 58.7% -1.68%
2011 57.8% -1.53%
2012 57.6% -0.35%
2013 57.8% 0.35%
2014 57.7% -0.17%
2015 57.7% 0.00%
2016 56.7% -1.73%
2017 55.6% -1.94%

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What We All Saw in the Playoffs

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November 1, 2018

Usually these posts follow some kind of narrative structure. You wouldn’t necessarily say you come to FanGraphs for the storytelling, but any decent article is supposed to tell a story, even if it’s mostly statistical. I’m not going to bother this time. I’m not going to lead in with some manner of gripping anecdote. I just want to show you all a bunch of postseason numbers. I want to show them to you, because some of them are interesting, and postseason numbers aren’t always the easiest things to track down. Certainly not if you want to compare them to the same year’s regular-season numbers. That’s why I’m here today.

I’ve shown some of these plots in the past. What’s different now is that I have a few more plots, and also that the 2018 postseason is officially complete. Below, eight images, and limited commentary. How has playoff baseball compared to regular-season baseball over the years? I’ve gathered a whole host of statistical indicators, mostly with the help of Baseball Reference. Join me, if you will, on a quick analytical journey. We always guess at how the playoffs might play out, or which trends we might observe. We don’t have to guess about what’s already in the books.

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Job Posting: Sports Info Solutions Baseball Video Scouting Internship

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November 1, 2018

Position: 2019 Baseball Video Scouting Internship

Location: Coplay, PA

Description:
Sports Info Solutions, originally founded as Baseball Info Solutions, is looking for highly motivated individuals with a desire to work in the baseball industry. Video Scouts will have a chance to make an immediate impression on the company. Each Video Scout will be collecting data that is directly used by SIS clients (including major league teams) for advance scouting and evaluation purposes. Not only will the Video Scouts become more familiar with the strengths and weaknesses of hundreds of amateur and professional players, but they will also learn the ins and outs of the baseball statistics industry.

Former Video Scouts have risen rapidly through Major League front offices after getting their start watching two to three games per day at SIS. In the words of one former Video Scout and current Vice President of Baseball Operations, “My summer at [BIS] was the best baseball experience of my life.” Major League teams frequently approach SIS for recommendations when they need to fill a position within their organization, and SIS’ top video scouts each year routinely land team internships and/or full-time jobs.

SIS takes pride in making their internships great development opportunities for those looking to get their start in baseball. In addition to gaining invaluable experience watching thousands of
players across different levels, they offer introductory classes that cover writing scouting reports and using the database management language, SQL. They also provide insight and advice from previous SIS Video Scouts who have branched out into a variety of areas in the sports industry.

Responsibilities:

  • Score and pitch chart MLB, MiLB and amateur games using specialized computer software
  • Check the accuracy and validity of data
  • Prepare and analyze statistical data for delivery to customers
  • Assist with the production of the 2020 Bill James Handbook
  • Provide administrative support to the full-time staff

Compensation:

  • A starting hourly rate of $7.75 and/or college course credit will be offered.
  • Each Video Scout will also be eligible for regular raises based on performance.
  • There will also be opportunities to sign up to work overtime to earn extra income (opportunities will depend on work levels throughout the year).

Time Frame:
SIS offers two unique start dates for this position. The first begins February 4th, 2019. It will last for a period of four to five months into early June, with the possibility of extending further based on company workload and the Video Scout’s performance. The second begins on March 6th, 2019. This will last five to six months into early September, again with a possibility of extending longer.

To Apply:
To apply, please use this link to submit your application.


Job Posting: Braves Minor League Video and Information Intern

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November 1, 2018

Position: Minor League Video and Information Intern

Description:

The Minor League Video and Information Intern will provide a service to an Atlanta Braves affiliate through charting live baseball games and providing video and information to Braves coaches, coordinators, and front office members.

This role manages all aspects of the assigned affiliate’s video and advance scouting operation and aims to provide an experience that prepares the ideal candidate for a future role in the baseball industry.

Responsibilities include, but are not limited to the following:

  • Capture and chart video for each game of the full minor league schedule of an assigned affiliate (home games and team travel to road games, postseason included)
  • Manage a network of cameras set up to collect high-quality video from multiple angles.
  • Attach, edit, and upload video following each game daily.
  • Support the coaching staff/players with ad-hoc video/technology requests as assigned.
  • Lead the affiliate’s advance scouting process and produce associated materials for the coaching staff.
  • Act as a point-person for affiliate’s use of performance technology initiatives as assigned by the Braves front office.
  • Attend a portion of the Braves’ Spring Training camp in Orlando, FL to undergo training in video and advance information.
  • Participate in periodic calls with the Baseball Operations group in Atlanta.
  • Other duties as assigned.

The ideal candidate will possess the following:

  • An understanding and appreciation for diverse cultures and an ability to work effectively and relate well with individuals of diverse backgrounds.
  • Self-motivated individual with high degree of responsibility including confidentiality, sense of urgency, and accountability.
  • Proactive, organized and detail oriented person who can prioritize their workload and follow-through with minimal supervision.
  • Flexibility and enthusiasm in attitude and approach.
  • Willing to relocate to a Braves minor league affiliate from Mid-March through Mid-September.
  • Able to successfully complete a background check.

Preferred:

  • Programming experience with SQL/R
  • Playing experience at the collegiate/professional level

This is a paid position that includes a housing stipend for the duration of the minor league season.

To Apply:
Applicants should submit their resume, cover letter, and references to bravesopsjobs@gmail.com and include “Minor League Video and Information Intern” in the subject line.

ANLBC, LLC is an Equal Opportunity Employer.


Effectively Wild Episode 1290: Circling the Wagenen

by
October 31, 2018

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Boston’s outfield rotation during the World Series, the significance of declining World Series ratings, the Orioles and the difficulty of classifying “tanking” teams, Manny Machado’s public persona and whether his reputation will hurt his free-agent appeal, and the Mets’ hiring of agent Brodie Van Wagenen as their new GM. They also answer two listener emails about the Astros and do a Stat Blast about the differences between postseason and regular-season baseball.

Audio intro: Dinosaur Jr., "The Wagon"
Audio outro: Lou Reed, "Wagon Wheel"

Link to Craig Edwards on World Series TV ratings
Link to Jeff’s post on the Orioles
Link to Ben on quantifying hustle
Link to Sheryl Ring on hiring agents as GMs
Link to Jeff on postseason stats

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The Nationals Signed One of 2017’s Best Relievers

by
October 31, 2018

In the binary world of most baseball conversation, a party should be either (A) going big, or (B) going home. In baseball, the way this manifests is that fans frequently think a team should either go for it or blow it up. There are, of course, other options — a lot of other options, all somewhere in the middle — but people like dramatic action, especially right now, on the heels of the playoffs. And when you look at the Nationals, you can almost see one side of things. I’ve seen it asked whether the Nationals should take a step back. They’ve already taken a step back in the standings, and the Braves and Phillies might only get better, and Bryce Harper is probably a goner. How do you make up for probably losing Bryce Harper? Are the Nationals at the end of an era?

With or without Harper, the Nationals can contend. The idea of them blowing it up was always silly. Far too much talent remains, and on Wednesday, the club has made a notable addition. The Nationals signed a free agent. Not a new free agent, but rather, a preexisting free agent. Trevor Rosenthal spent the 2018 season rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Now he’s the newest member of the Nationals’ bullpen. A bullpen they hope can lead them back to October.

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Job Posting: White Sox Baseball Operations

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October 31, 2018

Please note, this posting contains two positions.

Position: White Sox Baseball Operations Software Engineer

Location: Chicago, IL

Description:
The Chicago White Sox seek an experienced Software Engineer to join their baseball operations group. The engineer will be responsible for building and maintaining data driven systems with a focus on Baseball Analytics, however there will be additional exposure to all facets of baseball operations. This position will report to the Director of Baseball Analytics.

Responsibilities:

  • Develop data-driven web applications and reports to assist the White Sox front office with player evaluation, arbitration, scouting, and player development.
  • Manage the integration of new data sources.
  • Provide operational support.

Requirements:

  • Degree in computer science, engineering, or similar field.
  • Technical proficiency in web development and scripting technologies such as HTML, PHP, AJAX, and JavaScript.
  • Object oriented development experience with Visual Studio and C#.
  • Strong UI design fundamentals, with examples of intuitive and flexible interfaces.
  • Knowledge of SQL Server or MySQL with the ability to write and optimize complex queries and stored procedures.
  • Experience working with large datasets.
  • Familiarity with advanced baseball metrics and research.
  • Strong communication and presentation skills.
  • Demonstrated high degree of integrity, professionalism, accountability, and discretion.
  • Ability to work flexible hours.

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Experience with ETL methodologies.
  • Experience presenting data with Tableau.
  • Experience performing advanced statistical analysis with analytical tools such as R, MatLab, or Python.
  • Advanced quantitative degree or published research.
  • Prior baseball playing or operations experience.

Proposed Start Date: December 1, 2018

To Apply:
Please send a resume and cover letter to ApplyAnalytics@chisox.com.

Position: White Sox Baseball Analytics Internship

Location: Chicago, IL

Description:
The Chicago White Sox seek a passionate, knowledgeable, and dedicated individual with a desire to work in Baseball Operations. The internship will focus primarily on the numerical methods that drive Baseball Analytics, however there will be additional exposure to all facets of baseball operations. The internship is a paid position with a 3-4 month term.

Responsibilities:

  • Develop data-driven applications and reports to assist the White Sox front office with player evaluation, arbitration, scouting, and player development.
  • Create proprietary performance metrics and predictive models.
  • Provide operational support.

Requirements:

  • Degree in computer science, mathematics, engineering, or similar field.
  • Knowledge of SQL Server or MySQL with the ability to write and optimize complex queries and stored procedures.
  • Experience performing advanced statistical analysis with analytical tools such as R, MatLab, or Python.
  • Experience working with large datasets.
  • Familiarity with advanced baseball metrics and research.
  • Strong communication and presentation skills.
  • Demonstrated high degree of integrity, professionalism, accountability, and discretion.
  • Ability to work flexible hours.

Preferred Qualifications:

  • Technical proficiency in web development and scripting technologies such as HTML, PHP, AJAX, and JavaScript.
  • Object oriented development experience with Visual Studio and C#.
  • Experience presenting data with Tableau.
  • Advanced quantitative degree or published research.
  • Prior baseball playing or operations experience.

To Apply:
Please send a resume to ApplyAnalytics@chisox.com.


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