The Brewers’ Best Laid Plans Were Just Good Enough

For eight innings, everything went as planned for Craig Counsell and his Brewers in their NLDS Game One matchup against the Colorado Rockies. Their MVP homered. A non-traditional arrangement of pitchers got them to the ninth inning with a 2-0 lead. Their All-Star closer took the mound needing to record only three outs. It was, more or less, the ideal scenario.

Then things fell apart a little. The closer faltered, and the Rockies tied the score. Counsell was forced to adjust. In the end, everything worked out anyway. The Brewers won the game on their home field and took a 1-0 lead in their best-of-five battle against Colorado. The plan, ultimately, worked.

Let’s take a look at the finer points of that plan to get a sense of Counsell’s logic and the Brewers’ strengths.

The Starter

Ever since the Tampa Bay Rays used Sergio Romo in a one-inning start back in May, the idea of the opener has spread across the league. And while Brandon Woodruff’s appearance could easily have been mistaken for another example of that strategy — Woodruff recorded many more relief appearances (15) than starts this year (4) — that’s not how Craig Counsell saw it.

Said Counsell before the start of the game on Thursday:

I think from our perspective, Woody is — he’s not a reliever. He has the ability to do more than that, if that’s what the game calls for. So that’s — one, he’s throwing the ball really well and, two, I think he has the potential to do a little more than a reliever maybe.

Whatever the case, the decision paid off: Woodruff pumped upper-90s four-seamers and two-seamers to get batters out. The sinkers were a bit of a surprise — Woodruff had only used the pitch during one appearances all season, his final one against Detroit — but were also effective. Only one batter reached base over Woodruff’s first three innings of work — a first inning walk of DJ LeMahieu — and he was erased on a caught stealing. By the end of three complete, Woodruff had produced three strikeouts against one walk while throwing 71% fastballs. But the velocity appeared to be waning, as the graph below indicates.

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Job Posting: Driveline Baseball R&D Intern

Position: Research and Development Intern

Location: Kent, WA
Employment Details:

  • Seasonal, $2500/month.
  • No additional benefits.
  • Start Date: As early as November 1st, 2018 – no later than December 1st, 2018
  • End Date: April 1st, 2019, but exceptional applicants may be offered an extension through the summer
  • Candidates will be expected to work ~40 hours per week.
  • This is NOT a remote position. It is located in Kent, WA. No financial relocation assistance is offered, though Driveline will put you in contact with a number of affordable short-term housing options upon accepting the role, if offered.

Description:
You will spend your time on the floor checking in with athletes, monitoring their movements, answering questions and integrating with the skill-specific and High Performance teams to collect and analyze athlete data.

You’ll work on projects like:

  • Preparing athletes for biomechanical assessments via retroreflective marker placement.
  • Running assessment reports in our internal tools software and in industry-standard software like Visual3d, Motive:Body, and OpenSIM.
  • Collecting and cleaning data for existing and new research projects.
  • Filming athletes using our Edgertronic high-speed cameras, editing the videos, and organizing them for easy access by the coaches, athletes, and research team.
  • Writing blog posts and creating social media content to document findings.
  • Going through your own independent research project of your choice, from study design, to IRB approval, to data collection and analysis, and finally, publication in a peer-reviewed journal.

R&D interns at Driveline Baseball spend their entire week working on internal projects that push the limits of knowledge in the baseball training space. You will be given unparalleled access to technology that few labs in the world have access to, and you will be tasked with an independent project that will eventually be published in a peer-reviewed journal with your name attached and proper credit given (all publication fees are paid for by Driveline Baseball).

You will be given a laptop and standing desk to work at inside the research lab, on the floor, and with our athletes. This isn’t a front office “hidden” position where you crank out data and no one is counting on you – you will be interfacing daily with professional athletes.

This is an opportunity to advance your career and knowledge base while being paid.

A Great Candidate Demonstrates:

  • Quantitative skill and experience in major statistical packages, like R-Studio.
  • Previous experience with some form of biomechanical analysis software package.
  • Open source project work on GitHub or openly published preprints/blogs to review. Driveline wants to know that you have contributed in some way on your own – this internship is very self-driven and is not micromanaged. Driveline needs independent thinkers, workers, and doers who take initiative.
  • Previous experience in coaching or playing baseball. Knowledge of the game within the game results in faster on-ramping at Driveline Baseball.
  • Excellent verbal communication skills. Deliver the right message at the right time.
  • Excellent “feel.” That mix of empathy, common sense and likability that makes people trust you.
  • A mindset for growth and learning. What do you want to be better at?
  • Always organized.
  • Proactively creates solutions to problems. You can’t help but do a little weekend side-project to solve that issue that’s been bugging you.

Requirements:

  • Familiarity with Driveline’s mission, previous research, and blog posts.
  • Passion for getting it right. “Smart people know how hard it is to know something.”
  • Ability to work independently.
  • Must be able to stand for 4+ hours straight.
  • Must be able to lift 50+ pounds.

What is Not Required:
Any form of college education. Driveline cares about what you’ve done and what you’re passionate about independently, not what class load you’ve taken.

To Apply:
To apply, please fill out this Google Forms Application. Applications are due by 10/20/2018.

Following the end of the internship, candidates will be evaluated on an individual basis for full-time roles or internship extensions.

Equal Opportunity Employer
Driveline is proud to be an equal opportunity employer. All qualified applicants will receive consideration without regard to race, creed, gender, marital status, sexual orientation, citizenship status, color, religion, national origin, age, disability, veteran status, or any other status protected under local, state, or federal laws. For employees and applicants for employment who have disabilities, Driveline provides reasonable accommodation.


Effectively Wild Episode 1278: The Postseason Swing of Things

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan review the saber-savvy ESPN broadcast of the NL wild card game, relive the highs, lows, and pivotal/memorable moments of both wild card games, defend the bullpen game from an analytical standpoint (and criticize it from an aesthetic standpoint), and ruminate about every division series matchup. For the first time in ages, they do not discuss Willians Astudillo, although he’s always in their hearts.

Audio intro: Broken Bells, "October"
Audio outro: Amy Winehouse, "October Song"

Link to Hechavarria catch
Link to Baez-Arenado hug
Link to Jeff’s Ottavino post
Link to Jeff’s Betances post
Link to Ben’s Sale article
Link to research on the “times through the order” penalty
Link to the .247 shirt

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 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com


Adam Ottavino Has a Weakness

After a miserable 2017, Adam Ottavino has been able to rebound, establishing himself as one of the better relievers in either league. That’s why he was the Rockies’ first pitcher out of the bullpen the other day in the wild-card game in Chicago. Granted, Ottavino allowed the tying run. There wasn’t another run until the top of the 13th. The bottom of the 13th was led off by Terrance Gore.

Let’s tie this all together, you and me. Why was Gore ever in the game in the first place? He pinch-ran in the eighth for Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo had hit a two-out single. Gore came in and wasted no time.

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A Few Quick Thoughts About the Rockies’ Offense

When Charlie Blackmon was double-switched out of Tuesday night’s NL Wild Card game in the bottom of the eighth inning, immediately after the Cubs tied the game and the Rockies put in Wade Davis, it wasn’t hard to miss just how limited Colorado’s offense is. With their season on the line, the next nine hitters that manager Bud Black sent to the plate from that point were as follows:

Rockies’ Batting Order in Late Innings of Wild Card Game
Order # Player PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+
3 Nolan Arenado 673 .297 .374 .561 132
4 Trevor Story 656 .291 .348 .567 127
5 Gerardo Parra 443 .284 .342 .372 80
6 Ian Desmond 619 .236 .307 .422 81
7 David Dahl 271 .273 .325 .534 109
8 Carlos Gonzalez 504 .276 .329 .467 96
9 Drew Butera 182 .190 .264 .301 52
1 Pat Valaika 133 .156 .214 .246 9
2 DJ LeMahieu 581 .276 .321 .428 86
Tony Wolters 216 .170 .292 .286 45
Ryan McMahon 202 .232 .307 .376 68

Valaika, pinch-hitting for Davis in the 10th, gave way to pitcher Seung Hwan Oh, who departed in the 11th in favor of Chris Rusin via a double-switch that removed Desmond and brought in McMahon. Scott Oberg followed Rusin in the 12th, double-switched out in a move where Wolters replaced Butera. That Wolters ultimately collected the game-winning hit in the 13th owes something to the position that Cubs starter-turned-reliever Kyle Hendricks was forced into under the circumstances, but the fact that he came through, despite the meager prospects for doing so, is both Very Baseball and why the Rockies lived to fight another series. Read the rest of this entry »


Brewers Go With Traditional Non-Traditional Starter

Last night, in starting Liam Hendriks, the Oakland A’s went with The Opener, using a reliever to start the game with the expectation that he will pitch just one inning. Today, the Brewers have also opted to start a reliever in Brandon Woodruff. Unlike the A’s, the Brewers have no plans to start a reliever for one inning, or to start a reliever for one out like the club did last week when they used a LOOGY in Dan Jennings to pitch only to Matt Carpenter. When the Brewers opted for Jennings, I opined the ploy could be useful in the playoffs:

This situation might have some utility for the Brewers in the playoffs. If the team makes the Wild Card game and faces the Cardinals, then Matt Carpenter is likely to be at the top of the order. If they were to face the Rockies, lefty Charlie Blackmon is likely to lead off. While September’s expanded rosters allow for a greater margin of error, a one-game Wild Card matchup still permits more relievers, as teams need just one starter instead of four in later rounds. The Brewers conducted an interesting experiment somewhat necessitated by a lack of starting options, the unique circumstances of the September roster, and the Cardinals’ lineup.

The situation is less desirable in Game One of a five-game series, as carrying a one-out reliever can be difficult with the number of games and limited roster space. The Brewers opted not to even carry Jennings on the roster, instead indicating that lefty starters Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez could be used in relief. Bud Black indicated he had no plans to move Charlie Blackmon out of the leadoff spot, and the lack of a LOOGY on the Brewers roster means he doesn’t even need to think about it.

As for the Brewers’ bullpen plans, Craig Counsell indicated on Wednesday the bullpen game he’s using today isn’t likely to mirror what we saw from A’s last night, with a train of relievers, or from the Rays this season, with a reliever followed by a starter:

Look, these aren’t going to be one-out appearances. These are going to be longer appearances. These are going to be two, three-inning appearances that we think we can get through with this.

In choosing Woodruff, Counsell doesn’t even believe he’s starting the game with a reliever.

And I think from our perspective, Woody is–he’s not a reliever. He has the ability to do more than that, if that’s what the game calls for. So that’s–one, he’s throwing the ball really well, and two, I think he has the potential to do a little more than a reliever maybe.

Counsell’s belief is supported by others. Before the season started, Eric Longenhagen said, “He’s a big-league-ready, sinker/slider fourth starter. Between the majors and minors this year, Woodruff has made 21 starts, including six at Triple-A in August. He struggled some overall, but he struck out 26 batters in 20 innings during that time. Since being recalled in September, Woodruff has been utilized as a reliever, but he’s gone multiple inning three times. More importantly, he’s been really good, with a 1.54 FIP, 16 strikeouts and just three walks while allowing only a single run in 12.1 innings. He features a high-90s four-seamer in relief in addition to his slider, and the Brewers hope that can get the club through the lineup at least once.

After Woodruff, Freddy Peralta is an interesting option. He’s started 14 games this season with a solid 3.85 FIP in those starts. In his last outing, he came on in relief of Jennings after that LOOGY start and went 3.2 innings, striking out three and giving up one run before the rest of the bullpen came to the rescue. Miley might be another consideration before the team can turn things over to Josh Hader, Corey Knebel, Joakim Soria, and Jeremy Jeffress.

The Brewers aren’t going with an Opener, and they aren’t going to pitch eight relievers over nine innings. What’s happening today is your more traditional bullpen game. It might not be common in the playoffs, but supplementing a couple long men in Woodruff and Peralta probably gives them a better chance to get outs than going with a starter on short rest like Gonzalez or a struggling Miley.


The Restoration of Dellin Betances

Although the Yankees ultimately put the A’s away by a somewhat lopsided margin, it was right in the middle that the A’s had some life. Luis Severino was surprisingly allowed to start the top of the fifth, and with the score then just 2-0, he gave up consecutive singles. Matt Chapman was due up. He’d be followed by Jed Lowrie. He’d be followed by Khris Davis. Aaron Boone went to his bullpen, with the game threatening to swing in the other direction. The pitcher he went to was Dellin Betances.

Within a few minutes, the inning was over, and the score was preserved. Betances went 1-2-3 again in the sixth, and then the Yankees pulled away. According to Win Probability Added, Betances wound up making the biggest positive contribution on the Yankees’ roster. Such territory was hardly uncharted; Betances was one of the best relievers in baseball for years. But in 2017, he lost the ballclub’s trust. Joe Girardi didn’t even use him in the wild-card game, and subsequent appearances were mostly low-leverage. A year ago, Betances had nobody’s faith. Wednesday, he was first out of the pen.

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The Brewers Outfield Combating Coors

With their win in the divisional tiebreaker on Monday, the Brewers took home the National League Central title, their second Central crown and third division title in their 49-year existence. By winning, besides avoiding the scramble of the winner-take-all Wild Card game, they get to face the Colorado Rockies. This is surely preferable for the Brewers for many reasons. For one, the Rockies offense is significantly less potent than either the Cubs or Dodgers — the Brewers’ other potential opponents — putting up an 87 team wRC+ compared to 100 for the Cubs and 111 for the league-leading Dodgers. The Brewers also (albeit in rather small samples) took five of seven from the Rockies this year, compared to three of seven from the Dodgers and nine out of 20 from the Cubs.

Despite the optimism, there is one catch to playing the Rockies; eventually, you have to go to Coors Field. Coors can be a tricky place to play, as many NL West players could tell you. From the elevation to the humidor, there are many factors that come into play once you travel to Denver. However, the Brewers are uniquely situated to combat one of Coors Field’s most difficult attributes.

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Who Needs a Ring?

Carlos Beltran entered last year’s playoffs with Hall of Fame credentials. Having accumulated 67 WAR, over 400 homers, and a few Gold Gloves out in center field, Beltran’s career was long and nearly finished. He had played in the postseason — including a World Series — and put up bonkers numbers in the process, hitting 16 homers in just 55 games. What he hadn’t done is win a title.

Beltran finally won that title with the Houston Astros.

He was not the only player to complement an impressive career with a championship last fall. Justin Verlander entered last year on a Hall of Fame trajectory. He also lacked a title. Following a trade to Houston, he picked up his first ring as well.

There might not be a Beltran in this postseason, but there are a handful of players with lengthy careers still seeking their first title.

We will start on the position player side. These are the players with the most WAR who have yet to get a championship ring. Read the rest of this entry »


Elegy for ’18 – New York Mets

The Mets had expectations coming into the season, but they whiffed on most of them.
(Photo: Arturo Pardavila III)

Some fanbases regard themselves as the best in baseball. Others pride themselves on their ability to hate anything, including Santa Claus. Still others are just a group of eight people cowering in the shadows of a creaky, nightmare-inducing home-run feature. But no fanbase does self-immolation like Mets fans, whose experience is one mostly of mind-numbing frustration peppered by only the occasional highlight.

That staring-into-middle-distance sadness is, of course, justified given the team’s history — and, more relevant to this post, the ups and downs and ups of 2018.

The Setup

New York’s 70-92 record in 2017, during which almost everything went wrong, was bleak enough to obscure the club’s recent success, including a World Series appearance in 2015 and return to playoffs in 2016.

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