| 2:40 |
: I think this is a chat!
|
| 2:41 |
: no poops today?
|
| 2:41 |
: Carson set this one and doesn’t set up the poop and peanuts. I have a competing 2:45 one, we’ll see what happens at 2:45!
|
| 2:41 |
: I think this is a late chat*
|
| 2:41 |
: You this is a chat, what if its just a bunch of robots trying to prove they aren’t robots
|
| 2:42 |
: EAT TURING, SCUM!
|
With trades for Manny Machado and Brian Dozier, the Dodgers did more to improve their playoff odds in the weeks before the July 31 trade deadline than any other NL team, at least according to the projections of Dan Szymborski. However, they didn’t do a whole lot to address one area of glaring need, namely their bullpen, instead choosing to rely upon their internal depth despite a host of injuries. After the past four days in Denver, that looks as though it might have been a serious mistake.
In a four-game series at Coors Field that began on Thursday night, the Dodgers (64-55) lost “only” three games to the Rockies (63-55), but all of them came in the late innings, the last two via walk-offs. For as critical as these intradivision contests between contenders are, the team also endured an even more important and unsettling loss, that of closer Kenley Jansen. After Thursday night’s 8-5 victory, which was closed out by Scott Alexander instead of Jansen, manager Dave Roberts told reporters that the latter had been hospitalized before the game due to an irregular heartbeat then sent back to Los Angeles to undergo tests. He was also placed on the 10-day disabled list. The Dodgers subsequently reported that Jansen’s condition had stabilized, that his issues are considered manageable, and that he will have a follow-up appointment with a cardiologist on August 20, the day before he is eligible to return from the DL. Beyond that, the prognosis is unclear; if the 30-year-old righty is put on blood thinners, he could be out four-to-six weeks.
This is the third time during Jansen’s nine-year major league career that he’s experienced an irregular heartbeat. He missed four weeks in 2011 and three weeks in 2012 with a similar problem; the second episode also occurred in Denver. After the latter season, he underwent cardiac ablation surgery to correct the problem. He also had an incident of high blood pressure while in Denver for a 2015 game, but he returned to action a few days later.
Thirty-four days. That’s enough time, for some among us, to bike from the Atlantic to the Pacific and back — twice. It’s enough time to build a 57-story skyscraper, then build two-thirds of it again. It’s nearly enough time to write a first draft of The Sun Also Rises, apparently. (I’m cheating a little bit here: Hemingway started the book on July 21 and finished it in early September, but still… what the heck?) And it’s time enough to create the universe four times over, if you’re the Supreme Being whose exploits are documented in the Book of Genesis. Oh — and if you’re David Bote, a 25-year-old infielder for the Chicago Cubs — it’s enough time to author a breakout season.
You may recognize Bote from what he did Sunday night to the Washington Nationals, live and on national television:
In this week’s typically fantastic Sunday Notes column (if you don’t read them, you should), David Laurila passed along this tidbit which caught my eye:
Red Sox centerfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. was charged with an error on Friday night when he failed a handle a ball that, per StatCast, had a 6% catch probability. Bradley ran 60 feet in 4.2 seconds before having the ball carom off his glove.
That was backed up by David Adler.
Here's how good Jackie Bradley Jr. is in CF: He got such an insane jump on a ball in the gap that when he missed a running catch, he got hit with an error.
The catch probability was 6%.
He had to go 80 feet in 4.2 sec.
Most OFs don't get close enough to have the chance to miss.— David Adler (@_dadler) August 11, 2018
Here’s the play in question:
Well, that doesn’t seem quite fair. But it’s becoming an increasing issue amongst official scorers and those who call for elimination of the error as a statistic altogether. Chris Hine, of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune wrote a great piece earlier this summer on different scorers’ approach to using Statcast: how much should Statcast data factor into the hit-vs.-error calculus? And do the Rules allow it?
We are debuting a new leaderboard today, the Season Stat Grid. It’s a little different than most of our leaderboards. Instead of having multiple stats in columns for each player, we are showing just one stat on the page and displaying multiple different seasons across the columns. This will allow readers to compare players to other players and themselves across several years.
You are able to select from most batting and pitching stats available on the player pages. There is a “Popular” stat menu which will always contain WAR along with other frequently used or otherwise important stats.
Last week, I ran down the latest ZiPS projections for the MVP awards. The Cy Young tends to be a bit simpler to project than the MVP, for a number of reasons: there are no positional differences for which to adjust (outside of starter vs. reliever), no consideration of defense, fewer candidates (because hitters aren’t eligible for the award, where pitchers can win the MVP), and finally, fewer pitching stats from which to measure performance. One historical note of interest is that, while team quality plays a factor, it appears to be a less predictive factor than it is for MVP, also serving to make things a bit less difficult.
Before I begin, one clarification from the MVP post: the award percentages that appear here aren’t based on each player’s mean final projections, but from the whole array of possibilities, 1st to 99th percentile, for each player. So, for example, Giancarlo Stanton’s projected award chance of 2.8% isn’t predicated on him winning the award based on his predicted final line, but from the better scenarios in which he exceeded that current projected final line.
| Rank | Player | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Sale | 29.9% |
| 2 | Trevor Bauer | 26.0% |
| 3 | Luis Severino | 11.5% |
| 4 | Corey Kluber | 10.1% |
| 5 | Justin Verlander | 8.5% |
| 6 | Gerrit Cole | 5.6% |
| 7 | Carlos Carrasco | 1.5% |
| 8 | Charlie Morton | 1.3% |
| 9 | James Paxton | 1.0% |
| 10 | Edwin Diaz | 0.9% |
| NA | The Field | 3.8% |
There’s a popular perception that Chris Sale wears out down the stretch. The perception is supported by his career splits: Sale has a career ERA below three for each of the first four months of the season with a 3.22 ERA for August and a 3.78 ERA in September. This data isn’t quite as robust as some suggest, but assuming for the sake of argument that it reflects something real, it’s also worth nothing that Sale’s been used more carefully than in past seasons. At this point in 2017, Sale had thrown at least 110 pitches in 16 starts after having crossed that threshold 10 times in both of the previous two seasons. This year, he’s at only four. The FanGraphs Depth Charts have Sale finishing at just 187 innings for the season, his lowest figure since 2014. ZiPS projects Sale to finish the year with the most strikeouts and best ERA in the AL while also tying for the highest WAR mark. The combination of his own performance plus the strength of the Red Sox make him a strong bet to go over the top.
Episode 828
Formerly a Pirates beat reporter for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, Travis Sawchik has also recently become a former contributor to FanGraphs dot com, having announced his departure this past week. This episode represents his final regular appearance on the program.
Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.
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Audio after the jump. (Approximately 50 min play time.)
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Niko Goodrum has been a find for the Tigers. His 232/.297/.435 slash line is admittedly ho-hum, but he’s providing plenty of value with his versatility and verve. Reminiscent of Tony Phillips, the 26-year-old former Twins prospect has started games at six positions. In his first Motor City season, he’s served as both a spark plug and a Swiss Army Knife.
He came to Detroit on the cheap. After toiling for eight years in the Minnesota system, Goodrum arrived as minor league free agent with just 18 MLB plate appearances under his belt. He’s more than earning his league-minimum money. While the aforementioned offensive numbers are pedestrian, the switch-hitter has driven his fair share of baseballs up gaps. His 24 doubles and 12 home runs rank third on the team, and he’s legged out two triples to boot.
Goodrum recognizes that his ability to play all over the field is a major reason he’s getting an opportunity with the rebuilding Tabbies. Another is that he’s finally found himself.
“I’m not searching anymore,” Goodrum told me. “I think that when you’re trying to find your identity of who you are, including what type of hitter you are, the game is a lot harder. When you believe in the things that are in you, your ability will start to show.”
Goodrum feels that corner was turned two years ago. Read the rest of this entry »
Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about Felix Hernandez‘s demotion to the bullpen, Willians Astudillo and the hidden-ball trick, former major leaguers who are still excelling internationally, an Augusta GreenJackets tweet, Dee Gordon‘s walk rate, Javier Baez‘s success, the state of the MVP races, Tyler Glasnow‘s apparent reinvention and the staying power of coaching gurus, a cricket follow-up, Kenley Jansen’s absence, the Fernando Rodney trade, and important trick plays.
Audio intro: Geto Boys, "Mind Playing Tricks on Me"
Audio outro: Pentatonix, "Take Me Home"
Link to Jeff’s Astudillo article
Link to Grant’s article about international players
Link to Jeff’s Baez article
Link to Jeff’s Glasnow article
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As reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Philadelphia Phillies acquired first baseman Justin Bour and cash considerations from the Miami Marlins for a minor-league pitcher who is yet to be named.
That a first baseman who can hit a little bit went in a minor August trade is another data point on just how little first baseman with some offensive pep are valued in baseball in 2018. It kind of makes you wonder about the team’s public stance to not let their players go cheaply; while Bour’s oblique injury came at a bad time for a deadline trade in 2017, I can’t help but think that a hitter coming off a .289/.366/.536 season could have fetched more than this over the winter. Yes, Bour has larger-than-typical platoon splits for a left-handed batter, with a 210-point difference in career OPS vs. RHP and LHP, but in some ways, that actually makes it easier for his new club to find a role for him. Also, he makes practically nothing in baseball terms ($3.4 million in 2018) and has two additional years before free agency.
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | DR | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | .249 | .344 | .494 | 128 | 421 | 55 | 105 | 17 | 1 | 28 | 83 | 62 | 123 | 1 | 124 | -2 | 1.7 |
| 2020 | .245 | .338 | .478 | 121 | 400 | 50 | 98 | 16 | 1 | 25 | 76 | 57 | 114 | 1 | 118 | -3 | 1.2 |