Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/18

1:59
Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get this party started.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Not only have I left emotes on, but I’ve put “Peanut Gallery” on.

1:59
Dan Szymborski: Which may be the biggest disaster ever, never to be repeated, but let’s try!

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Seems to work.  Trade Deadline is supposed to be a non-stop erotic cabaret, so we can take some risks.

2:00
Bret: Will the Blue Jays be able to trade Roberto Osuna? If so, how much of a discount will they need to give?

2:00
Dan Szymborski: Aroldis Chapman was traded.  I expected they don’t, though.

Read the rest of this entry »


Players’ View: Learning and Developing a Pitch, Part 19

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the nineteenth installment of this series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Marco Estrada, Brad Hand, and Jake Odorizzi — on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

———

Marco Estrada (Blue Jays) on His Changeup

“I never really threw a changeup in high school or college. When I got to High-A, I met a kid named Clint Everts who threw a really good changeup, so I asked him how he held his. It was a pretty simple grip. I grabbed it and threw it a couple of times, and it came out pretty good. I actually took it into a game two or three days after that, and got a lot of swings and misses on it. That’s basically where it began.

“The way I hold it has been the same ever since, although I feel the action on it has been a little different lately — last year and this year. There’s a lot of talk about the balls being different and whatnot, and maybe that’s affecting it a little bit? But I just don’t feel that it’s been what it was. There are days where I throw a good one and kind of tell myself, “What did I do different?’ It felt the exact same, so, is it the ball? I don’t know what it could be.

Marco Estrada’s changeup grip.

Read the rest of this entry »


This Week’s Chat Schedule Is Slightly Different

The purpose of this post is to announce that this week’s chat schedule — because of the deadline and also because of Kiley McDaniel’s extensive contract rider — is slightly different than during other weeks of the year. The amended schedule appears below, with times presented in the more sophisticated 24-hour format to reflect the sophistication of this site’s readers.

Monday
14:00 Dan Szymborski

Tuesday
12:00 Justin Mason
15:00 Kiley McDaniel and Travis Sawchik Deadline Chat
16:00 Brad Johnson

Wednesday
12:00 Jeff Sullivan

Thursday
12:00 Jay Jaffe
14:00 Eric Longenhagen

Friday
12:00 Meg Rowley
15:00 Paul Sporer


MLB, Twitter, and Baseball’s Looming Age Problem

If you’re like me, you use Twitter. Twitter’s awesome! It gives you breaking news, reports on the latest trades, and also whatever this is:

And without Twitter, we wouldn’t have unfettered access to Brandon McCarthy’s observations of the world, which are worthwhile…

Twitter can be good, in other words.

As anyone familiar with that particular platform knows, however, it’s not always. As MLB learned this week, sometimes tweeting can become a pretty risky exercise. Not only have three young players been forced to contend with the ugly sentiments of their younger selves, but the league’s main account has also found itself in the middle of something, as well.

It started with this:

Read the rest of this entry »


Let’s Make Some Trades

Harper to the Yankees? It’s not not possible.
(Photo: Lorie Shaull)

There are only 24-ish hours remaining until baseball’s trade deadline and, truth is, I’m a bit impatient. Until free agency opens up in about a hundred days or thereabouts, this is truly our last great opportunity to let our imaginations run wild. Sure, we can conjure up some fun trades in August, but our whimsical mind-meanderings just aren’t as exciting when all of the players we trade have to go through imaginary revocable waivers.

Against my worse judgment, to which I typically cater, I endeavored to make my last-minute deadline trades to retain at least a whiff of plausibility. So, no blockbuster Mike Trout deal, no winning Noah Syndergaard in a game of canasta, and no Rockies realizing that they have significant other needs other than the bullpen.

Bryce Harper to the Yankees

Washington’s playoff hopes have sunk to the extent that, even if you’re as optimistic as the FanGraphs depth charts are and believe the Phillies and Braves are truly sub-.500 teams as presently constructed, the Nats still only are a one-in-three shot to win the division. If you’re sunnier on Philadelphia or Atlanta, those Nats probabilities lose decimal places surprisingly quickly.

Read the rest of this entry »


Sunday Notes: Eugenio Suárez Added Power and Sterling Sharp is a Pitching Ninja

Eugenio Suárez played in the All-Star Game earlier this month, so in some respects he’s not under the radar. But in many ways, he really is. The Cincinnati Reds third baseman is slashing .301/.387/.581, and he leads the National League in both wRC+ and RBIs. Were he playing in a bigger market, those numbers would make him… well, a star. Which he is… in relative anonymity.

Opposing pitchers certainly know who he is, and that’s been especially true this past week. Going into last night, Suárez had homered in five consecutive games, raising his season total to 24. That’s two fewer than last year’s career high, which came in his third season in Cincinnati. Count the Tigers’ former brain trust among those who didn’t see this coming. In December 2014, Detroit traded the then-23-year-old to the Reds for (gulp), Alfredo Simon.

“I don’t think anything has really changed,” Suárez claimed when I asked him about his evolution as a hitter. “I just play baseball like I did before. I’ve always been able to hit, just not for power like last year and this year.”

He attributes the power surge to maturity and hard work in the offseason. Asked to compare his current self to the 17-year-old kid who signed out of Venezuela in 2008, Suárez said the biggest difference is physicality. Read the rest of this entry »


Mike Moustakas, Travis Shaw, and the Brewers’ Second-Base Experiment

Last year, the Brewers resurfaced after a rebuilding period that saw them purge basically all the top players from their last good season. With a strong pitching staff and a maturing crop of prospects, Milwaukee surged, presenting a threat to Chicago’s North Side club for the division crown. On this day a year ago, the Brewers were a half-game back of the Cubs. While they inevitably came up short, the Brewers started to see returns from a top-10 farm system they had spent years assembling.

During the offseason, they sought to address their weaknesses in the outfield, consolidating prospect gains for the inimitable Christian Yelich. They also signed Lorenzo Cain to an affordable long-term contract, providing them with greater protection from variance and much improved production. While those two acquisitions haven’t been the only factors to have propelled the Brew Crew to contention, such additions have led the organization to find themselves 1.5 games back of the Cubs for the division this season, holding the first Wild Card spot. FanGraphs’ own playoff odds give them (read: Milwaukee) a 60.2% chance to make the playoffs. Last night, David Stearns inched that figure a bit higher.

Late Friday evening, the Milwaukee Brewers moved to augment their roster for a postseason push, acquiring Mike Moustakas from the Kansas City Royals.

As reported first by a self-described Wisconsin sports fan, here’s the trade in its entirety:

Brewers get:

Royals get:

For the Royals, it’s a pretty bittersweet move featuring one of their longest-tenured players. Kansas City drafted Moustakas with the second overall pick all the way back in 2007. He’s spent his entire adult life with the organization, ascending the minor-league ladder, enduring growing pains, making a World Series, and then winning a World Series. Or, as Royals manager Ned Yost puts it:

Read the rest of this entry »


Mariners Turn Future Bullpen Piece into Present Bullpen Piece

The Mariners and Cardinals swapped relievers today, the latter sending RHP Sam Tuivailala to Seattle for prospect Seth Elledge. The deal gives Seattle a marginal bullpen upgrade in Tuivailala (probably over Casey Lawrence) for a stretch run that’s going to require them to continue winning close games. Every slightly better bullpen option is more meaningful in this situation than it is when looking at reliever value from a broader point of view. The deal is also a good fit for St. Louis, who acquires a comparable talent whose service-time calendar better aligns with their competitive schedule. Tuivailala is arbitration-eligible starting in 2020, when Elledge will probably be in his first or second year of big-league service.

Tuivailala is a fine middle reliever. He sits 93-96, will occasionally touch 99, and has two very average secondary offerings in an upper-80s cutter/slider and an upper-70s curveball. The Mariners have had success drafting low-ceiling, high-probability college relievers in the middle rounds of the last several drafts and quickly flipping them for mature big-league pieces on the margins. Elledge was the second pitcher Seattle traded from their 2017 draft class (JP Sears was sent to the Yankees for Nick Rumbelow last fall), which means Seattle’s 2017 draft has technically yielded the most subustantial big-league return in all of baseball right now.

Seth Elledge is a big-bodied, crossfire reliever with a mid-90s fastball and plus breaking ball. He was a 2017 fourth-round pick out of Dallas Baptist, a college that parades hard-throwing relievers into pro ball annually. He has a 54:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 38.1 innings. He might eventually be better than Tuivailala because the breaking ball is better. It’s reasonable to project a 2020 debut for Elledge, though has a non-zero chance to debut next year.


The D-backs Get Eduardo Escobar to Play Role of Jake Lamb

Infielder Eduardo Escobar entered the 2017 campaign having recorded 27 homers, a .128 isolated-power figure, and 84 wRC+ over the course of 1,620 plate appearances. In the roughly 900 plate appearances since the beginning of 2017, however, he’s been a different sort of hitter, accumulating 36 homers while posting a .215 ISO and 109 wRC+ during that interval.

The difference is stark. Indeed, one could say without much need for hyperbole that, after having conducted himself like a slap-hitting middle infielder for much of his career, Escobar somewhat suddenly become a legitimate power threat. By way of reference, consider some of the players whom Escobar has outslugged: Nicholas Castellanos (.214 ISO), Joey Votto (.213), George Springer (.213), Anthony Rizzo (.209), Corey Dickerson (.204). Those are all players whose presence in the major leagues is founded, at some level, on their ability to create runs on contact. All of them have recorded wins at an above-average rate since the start of 2017. None of them has hit for more power than Escobar, though.

Of course, having hit more home runs than expected is different than continuing to hit more home runs than expected. The former is a matter of record, the latter a question of true talent. The Arizona Diamondbacks, it seems, are at least somewhat optimistic about the latter: earlier today, they acquired Escobar from Minnesota in exchange for three prospects: right-hander Jhoan Duran, outfielder Ernie De La Trinidad, and other outfielder Gabriel Maciel.

Read the rest of this entry »


Phillies Address Need by Adding Asdrubal Cabrera

With 47.1% odds of winning the NL East and 63.4% odds of reaching the postseason entering play Friday, few teams ought to be more aggressive buyers than the Phillies as they try to consolidate and improve their NL East-leading position in a year they perhaps arrived ahead of schedule.

The Phillies attempted to improve Friday by acquiring veteran infielder Asdrubal Cabrera from the Mets. One of the Phillies’ weaknesses has been a general lack of run production from their infield positions. The Phillies rank 12th in the majors in wRC+ by second basemen (98), 27th at shortstop (75), and 23rd at third base (90).

Cabrera has posted a 122 wRC+ for the season and a .277/.329/.488 slash line. He posted a 111 wRC+ last season and has a 107 mark for his career. The switch-hitter has generally been an above-average offensive player, particularly relative to middle infielders. The 32-year-old impending free agent has produced 2.1 WAR to date this season.

Cabrera, who has been limited to second base in 2018, gives the Phillies roster flexibility in addition to representing an offensive upgrade in the infield. He was primarily a shortstop through 2016, though he also has experience at third base. It’s not exactly clear how and where Phillies manager Gabe Kapler will employ Cabrera.

Read the rest of this entry »