The Rarest Sight in Baseball

On May 12th, in the first inning of the Cubs’ game against the White Sox, Jon Lester did something a little bit unusual: he swung at a 3-1 pitch. Now, if Jon Lester were not a pitcher, that wouldn’t be all that unusual. Since 2011, non-pitchers (another word you might use for these people is “hitters”) have swung at 3-1 pitches about 56% of the time — 55.9% of the time, to be precise. But Jon Lester is a pitcher, and he still swung at a 3-1 pitch. And the thing is, over the same time period — that is, from 2011 (when our data starts) to present — pitchers faced with 3-1 counts have swung at the next pitch just 38.3% of the time. Of those swings, just one in five was at a pitch outside the zone, like the fastball on the outside edge at which Lester swung and missed. It’s just not something you see that often.

That’s because, if you’re a pitcher, swinging at a 3-1 pitch is usually not a very good idea. If you swing at such a pitch, you might get a hit (pitchers did hit 27 home runs last year, after all!), but you might also put the ball in play and record an out. If you don’t swing on 3-1, you definitely won’t record an out. You might still get a strike called against you, which would put you that much closer to recording an out, but you might also walk or get hit by the pitch — and a walk or hit by pitch, for a lot of pitchers at the plate, is a very good outcome. Last year, pitchers took 5,277 plate appearances. They recorded outs in 4,522 of those plate appearances (85.7%). I think it’s fair to say pitchers are looking for any means to reach base available to them. Swinging at 3-1 pitches is not a good way to do that. And so, two-thirds of the time, pitchers don’t.

Everything I’ve just said applies doubly to 3-0 counts. Even regular hitters don’t swing at those pitches all that often — just 8.2% of the time since 2011, in fact. With two strikes still available, it just doesn’t make any sense not to give the pitcher a chance to walk you, and so upwards of nine times out of 10, hitters will let the pitcher prove he can find the zone on a 3-0 count. And when it’s a pitcher at the plate, the odds of a swing on 3-0 are even smaller. Vanishingly small, in fact. Thanks to a database query performed by my colleague Sean Dolinar, I’m able to report to you now that a pitcher swing on a 3-0 count has happened only seven times since 2011, or about once a season. Seven times, out of 578 opportunities. About 1 in every 100 times. Almost never. And — here’s the fun thing about this story, I think — six of those seven swings were taken by just two men, and all seven came in the span of just three seasons. Let’s investigate the history of this strange baseball phenomenon together, shall we? Come with me on a journey back to May 20th, 2014.

Whoops! I jumped ahead in the story a little bit. That there on your screen, right above this text, is Madison Bumgarner of the San Francisco Giants swinging at a 3-0 pitch in the fifth inning of a game against the Colorado Rockies. Now, Bumgarner can hit a little bit — at least as well as the worst big-league hitters can hit, that is. His career wRC+ is identical, for example, to Drew Butera’s. And he was behind in this game 1-0 in the fifth, with two runners on base and an out in the inning to spare. Perhaps he felt that his cause would be best served by a Very Large Home Run against Franklin Morales, who at this point in the game was pitching a gem (those of you who are familiar with the life and work of Franklin Morales may not be shocked to discover it did not end that way, though it wasn’t a terrible start, on the whole).

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Effectively Wild Episode 1217: The Sound of Strikes

EWFI

Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the fallout from Robinson Cano‘s 80-game suspension, the league’s latest adjustment to Shohei Ohtani, Jason Castro‘s injury and Willians Astudillo’s opportunity, and the resurgent Jordan Lyles, then answer listener emails about the topsy-turvy National League, the evolution of orthodoxy about bullpens, the impact of Willson Contreras on Cubs pitchers, preemptive PRP treatments, a Yankees and Padres roster-swap, streakers helping pitchers warm up, detecting called strikes by sound, expected prospect value and Mike Sirotka vs. Michael Soroka, the correlation between double plays and team success, Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, a pitcher who watches the wave, a player who always makes outs on the bases, sabermetric bar debates and advanced milestone stats, and judging players by their eras’ standards, plus a Stat Blast about bunting success.

Audio intro: Joel Plaskett, "Deny, Deny, Deny"
Audio outro: Koufax, "Let Us Know"

Link to Ben’s post about Shohei Ohtani
Link to Jeff’s post about bullpen inconsistency
Link to prospect-value research

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Francisco Lindor Wants to Be Baseball’s Best Player

Articles about great players have this habit of turning into articles about Mike Trout. That’s because Mike Trout is the best player in the world. I’m not certain it’s even up for debate. It will be one day, and maybe that day will be soon, but Trout has proven so much, for so long. Players sometimes flirt with Trout’s level of performance. They’ll do it for a month, or even two or three. Then they fade away, while Trout remains. That’s his big secret: never slump. Never slump, and always be awesome.

I understand that, these days, there’s a conversation comparing Mike Trout and Mookie Betts. As you could guess, despite Betts’ start, I’ll still take Trout. I’m a Trout guy. But the Betts side does raise a valid point: Betts’ offensive bar doesn’t have to be so high, because he’s so incredibly valuable in the field. Betts is baseball’s best defensive right fielder. That gives him a leg up. He doesn’t have to hit like Trout to be more valuable than Trout. That much is correct.

That much would also apply to Francisco Lindor. Lindor is a wizard at a premium defensive position. He’s a threat when he gets on the bases. And now, at the plate, Lindor has leveled up. To be clear, I’m still a Trout guy. But Lindor, at least, is closing the gap.

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Players’ View: Learning and Developing a Pitch, Part 8

Pitchers learn and develop different pitches, and they do so at varying stages of their lives. It might be a curveball in high school, a cutter in college, or a changeup in A-ball. Sometimes the addition or refinement is a natural progression — graduating from Pitching 101 to advanced course work — and often it’s a matter of necessity. In order to get hitters out as the quality of competition improves, a pitcher needs to optimize his repertoire.

In the eighth installment of this series, we’ll hear from three pitchers — Sean Manaea, Blake Treinen, and Steven Wright — on how they learned and/or developed a specific pitch.

———

Sean Manaea (Athletics) on His Changeup

“My college roommate, Tyler Pazik, showed me his changeup before the last start of my sophomore year [at Indiana State]. Three days later I took it to our regional game against Austin Peay and threw it pretty well. It was one of those things where I could just pick it up and throw it, and not have to think about it. Then I took it to the Cape and had a good summer there. Then I took it to my junior year.

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Jordan Lyles Found Something He’s Never Had

In a bit of surprise, even in the year of almost no-hitters, Jordan Lyles took a perfect game into the eighth inning on Tuesday. Shortly after Trevor Story hit a single to end that particular quest, Lyles was removed, having gone 7.1 innings with one hit, one walk, and 10 strikeouts.

This start comes on the heels of a five-inning, six-strikeout, one-walk, one-earned-run performance in his first start of the season last week. Yesterday was the first time since April 2016 that Lyles pitched at least five innings and yielded no earned runs. It was the first time since June 2013 that Lyles pitched consecutive games of at least five innings and allowed one or zero earned runs. The Padres right-hander was just 22 years old at that time. He’s 27 now, and it is fair to say not a great many people have spent a lot of time thinking about Lyles in the interim.

While Lyles might not have garnered a lot of attention, he was actually a decent starter as recently as 2015. After his trade from the Astros to the Rockies in the winter ahead of the 2014 season, Lyles made 32 starts across the next two seasons, pitching 175.2 innings with a decent 4.10 FIP and 2.1 WAR. He was basically an average pitcher with a slightly elevated 4.56 ERA. He didn’t strike out a lot of hitters, but he got a lot of ground balls and kept the ball in the park.

His 2015 season ended with a sprained toe, and he got off to a poor start in 2016 that included multiple trips to the minors and an eventual bullpen stay. That reliever role continued into 2017, but he didn’t perform well and the Rockies released him. The Padres picked him up and let him start a handful of games, but those didn’t really go well, either. Lyles opened this season in the Padres bullpen and pitched well enough to get back in the rotation. Thus ends the recent history of Jordan Lyles and brings us to today.

Lyles is no longer the contact-oriented sinker pitcher of his Rockies days. To illustrate the changes Lyles has made, let’s run through his first batter faced yesterday, David Dahl.

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The Rockies Have a Historic Void

The Rockies advanced to the postseason last year (albeit only for a brief stay) for the fourth time in club history, and they did it in a manner uncommon for them: through pitching.

The Rockies ranked eighth in pitching WAR (18.6) in the majors last season and seventh in ERA- (90). The mark tied the 2007 club, which advanced to the World Series, for the best ERA- in their history, and it was just the eighth time the club has been better than average off the mound when adjusting for park and league run-scoring environments.

The Rockies, 23-20 entering play Wednesday, are following a similar path this year, ranking seventh in pitching WAR (4.8) and fourth in the NL. They have a 96 ERA-.

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Sean Manaea Is Slowing Everything Down

This is Jake Mailhot’s second post as part of his May Residency at FanGraphs. A lifelong Mariners fan, Jake now lives in Bellingham, Washington, just a little too far away from Seattle to make it to games regularly, which is sometimes for the best. He is a staff editor at Mariners blog Lookout Landing. He can be found on Twitter at @jakemailhot.

Fastball velocity is one of the main factors at which analysts look when attempting to predict pitcher injuries. When a pitcher suddenly starts throwing slower than before, alarm bells start ringing. Sometimes it’s nothing; more often than not, though, it’s a pretty bad sign. Having said that, let me present — without any other context — a velocity chart for a starting pitcher from 2016 through this season.

That’s a pretty disturbing downward trend. But as far as we know, this pitcher isn’t injured. In fact, he might be the healthiest he’s been in his major league career — and he’s thrown a no-hitter this year as proof. If you haven’t guessed already, the pitcher in question is Sean Manaea. He’s throwing slower than ever before and thriving.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 5/16/18

12:03

Kiley McDaniel: Hello everyone, a couple quick plugs for the new @FG_Prospects twitter account and yesterday’s mock draft: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-mlb-mock-draft-v-2-0/ and of course THE BOARD, which will be updated shortly https://www.fangraphs.com/scoutboard.aspx

12:03

Peter: What’d you think of Muller the other day? What does he project as? #4?

12:05

Kiley McDaniel: Saw Florida/St. Lucie yesterday with Kyle Muller and Justin Dunn pitching, included some notes on twitter and Cristian Pache video @kileymcd if you’re interested in that. Muller now appears to be essentially what was expected out of HS: low 90’s touch 95, solid avg offspeed that could be 55’s along with starter command and a sturdy frame with some projection. Still young enough that things can still change a bit, but he’s fully recovered from a rocky 2017. Also has easy plus raw power he’ll get to use in Double-A.

12:05

Foolish Child: is Bart’s floor the Mets at 6?

12:06

Kiley McDaniel: I think it’s probably 5/CIN but yeah maybe 6/NYM, right around there.

12:06

Jimmy: Do you buy or sell the Dodgers missing the playoffs ?

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Top 22 Prospects: Colorado Rockies

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Colorado Rockies. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

All the numbered prospects here also appear on THE BOARD, a new feature at the site that offers sortable scouting information for every organization. Click here to visit THE BOARD.

Rockies Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Brendan Rodgers 21 AA SS 2019 60
2 Riley Pint 20 A RHP 2021 50
3 Ryan McMahon 23 MLB 1B 2018 50
4 Ryan Vilade 19 A 3B 2022 45
5 Colton Welker 20 A+ 3B 2021 45
6 Yency Almonte 23 AAA RHP 2018 45
7 Forrest Wall 22 A+ CF 2019 45
8 Garrett Hampson 23 AA 2B 2019 45
9 Tyler Nevin 20 A+ 3B 2021 45
10 Peter Lambert 20 AA RHP 2020 45
11 Ryan Castellani 22 AA RHP 2019 45
12 Breiling Eusebio 21 A LHP 2021 40
13 Dom Nunez 23 AA C 2019 40
15 Will Gaddis 22 A RHP 2020 40
14 Robert Tyler 21 A RHP 2020 40
16 Sam Hilliard 24 AA OF 2020 40
17 Jordan Patterson 26 MLB LF 2019 40
18 Vince Fernandez 22 A+ OF 2020 40
19 Sam Howard 25 R LHP 2018 40
20 Chad Spanberger 22 A 1B 2021 40
21 Tom Murphy 27 MLB 1B 2018 40
22 Daniel Montano 19 R CF 2022 40

60 FV Prospects

Drafted: 1st Round, 2015 from Lake Mary HS (FL)
Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 180 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
30/50 60/60 40/55 50/45 40/50 55/55

After demolishing the Cal League last year (as was expected), Rodgers had a solid 38-game run at Double-A. He turned 21 in August. He’s hit everywhere he’s been since high school and continues to look fine, if unspectacular, at shortstop. He’s above average in every way at the plate (the bat control, power, feel for opposite-field contact, ability to punish mistakes), which means he’s got a good chance to be an All-Star if he stays at shortstop, and it looks like he’s going to.

50 FV Prospects

2. Riley Pint, RHP
Drafted: 1st Round, 2016 from St. Thomas Aquinas HS (KS)
Age 19 Height 6’4 Weight 195 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Curveball Changeup Command
70/70 50/55 60/65 50/60 30/45

Pint was identified as a potential high-first-round pick as a high school underclassman, showing mid-90s velocity and a long, lanky, athletic frame in tournaments. He remained an elite arm over the next few years, going fourth overall in 2016 and continuing to show some of the best stuff on the planet, including two 70s and two 60s on some days.

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Who’s Slowing Down the Game?

Last week, I examined whether baseball’s pace changes were having an effect through the first quarter of the major-league season. The results of that investigation? That pace measures are melting some time from the game.

By limiting mound visits, by reducing time between innings — with some teams even employing bullpen carts — the average time of game has been reduced by five minutes. Starting pitchers have cut their average time between pitches by half a second to 23.1 seconds this year. The average time between pitches for a reliever is also down half a second to 23.8.

The changes are having an effect, albeit modest. Perhaps the change will be enough to reduce MLB commissioner Rob Manfred’s desire to implement a pitch clock, a device which he was close to unilaterally adding to the game this season.

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