Alex Cobb’s Patience Actually Worked

Here, I thought it virtually inevitable that Alex Cobb would settle for something similar to the Lance Lynn contract. The pitchers have similar ages, strengths, and profiles, and both Cobb and Lynn happen to have turned down qualifying offers. A week and a half ago, Lynn signed with the Twins for a year and $12 million, after spending the offseason aiming much higher. In my head, I figured that would be Cobb’s fate, too. There are worse things. Yet Cobb has emerged with something much stronger, something more lucrative. Seemingly despite the odds, Cobb now has more or less the contract he wanted all along, agreeing to terms with the Orioles for four years and $57 million.

In the bigger picture, it’s not surprising, since Cobb was expected to get something like this back in December. In the smaller picture, it is surprising, given how the market played out. And it’s additionally surprising, given the Orioles’ reluctance to sign pitchers to long-term deals. I don’t think this was ever the likelihood, which helps to explain why it took so long in the first place. But for Cobb, he’s got a home, in a familiar division. And for the Orioles, they’ve patched another rotation together, after appearing shorthanded. While they might be the East’s worst team, we’ve heard that before. They’re going to give this another shot.

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On Caring for One Another

I’d like to beg your indulgence to reflect on community. Specifically, our community. Our community here at FanGraphs, sure, but the community of people who care about the rigorous analysis of baseball, too. Communities are home to all kinds of folks engaged in different bits of sin and kindness, all experiencing different stakes. We’re knit together by our sins and our kindnesses, sometimes quite uncomfortably. One such sin is the everyday kind, the sort of casual meanness and lack of care we all wade through all the time. It’s a smaller kind, but we still find ourselves altered by it. I suppose you’ll have to forgive me for worrying on such things; I know we can be suspicious of feelings around here. But don’t fret. There’s another bit of sin, too, a baseball sin.

Earlier this month, Sheryl Ring published a piece called “Can Major League Baseball Legally Exclude a Woman?” The piece considered whether the exclusion of women from baseball, both as players and umpires, was legally permissible under Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. Specifically, Sheryl, while acknowledging that it wouldn’t be an easy case to make, argued that being male was not a Bona Fide Occupational Qualification for playing Major League Baseball and that the failure to scout, much less hire, women could potentially violate Title VII.

The response in the comments was resoundingly negative. That isn’t in itself a bad thing. It wasn’t a perfect piece, though what piece is? We here like debate. We don’t always get things right, or express our ideas as well as we ought to. Our job as writers is to convince you or move you or both. The issue isn’t that the comments were critical. Rather, what struck me was how quickly some of the voices escalated, from skepticism to certainty to what read, at least to me, as a barely repressed anger that other commenters seemed less sure and more open, that the question had been posed at all.

Communities fight. Communities committed to finding right answers may fight more — and harder — than most. For years, we fought others, fought against bunts and batting average, but we mostly won. Now the lines are less clear; the field is muddy and murky and full of fog. We’re still a community, but we’re changing. We’re having to make room for new folks in our digital neighborhood. But as strangers, unburdened by the potential chance encounter at the corner store, we have an odd relationship with the idea of care. The literal distance between us has resulted in a high tolerance for gruffness; I never have to see my barbs land, never have to watch your face color with anger or embarrassment. I am free to forget your stakes, and you are free to forget mine.

But I wish we would remember them. The idea of a woman playing in Major League Baseball means something to me. It stirs something. I long for it, in a way that is embarrassing to talk about in my place of work, which this is, but those are my stakes. They aren’t the only stakes I have, but they’re important ones. I suspect seeing someone who looks like me play the game will make me feel that I belong in a way I don’t quite now. I want it to be real, even as I’m not sure it ever will be.

Others may not have liked the piece or found it convincing. Perhaps the post ought to have lingered longer on the institutional barriers girls and women face when playing baseball. Maybe certain readers thought it didn’t express adequate appreciation of the great distance we have to close. But they could have been nicer about it; they could have shown greater care. They could have appreciated that what means very little to them means a great deal to me and mine, and tempered not their criticism but their ire. They could have thought for a moment about what else we might worry that ire is meant to say: that we are not welcome. They could have remembered our stakes, as members of their community.

That was the everyday sin, the sin of disrespect and unfeeling. It is what makes our community less than perfect and less than perfectly welcoming. It is troubling, this lack of care. I’ve worried every day since then who we might have driven away, who might only ever lurk at the edges of the comments, blistered by those who think the only means by which to disagree is to trample. To ignore others’ stakes.

The baseball sin was the certainty.

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Your Stance On the Team Projections

Out of all the polling projects I run, this one’s always my favorite. No sense in beating around the bush. Here are our current, schedule-adjusted projected 2018 standings. These are based on the Steamer projection system, the ZiPS projection system, and manually-adjusted team depth charts. Now that the Orioles have signed Alex Cobb, there are hardly more big changes to make between now and opening day. So, what do you actually think of the projections you’re seeing?

For convenience, here are the league landscapes, in case you didn’t feel like clicking the link.

The top looks like the top you’d expect. The bottom looks like the bottom you’d expect. We’ve been writing about the various tiers for months. But, even if you might not realize it, you’re experts. You know a lot about particular baseball teams, information the projection systems might not be aware of. So you might consider certain team projections too optimistic, or you might consider certain team projections too pessimistic. This is your collective opportunity to make yourselves heard. Last year, the community thought the projections were too low on the Rockies, Brewers, and Royals. All three teams won more games than was projected. Meanwhile, the community thought the projections were too high on the A’s, Angels, and Marlins. All three teams won fewer games than was projected. You all can provide valuable input, and so I love when this project gets to the analysis part.

The analysis part is coming, probably early next week. Following, you’ll find 30 polls for 30 teams. They should be simple to understand, especially if you’ve done this before. Vote based on research, or vote based on gut. I don’t care. Just vote. All I ask is that you vote based on the information we know today. Vote based on the rosters and depth teams have, and don’t vote based on the assumption that a team will make midseason additions or subtractions. That stuff is effectively un-projectable. Everything now being said, I leave it to you. Thank you all in advance for your participation.

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Aaron Judge, Manny Machado, and the Law of Tampering

Aaron Judge is in hot water. The Yankees’ slugger and junior Tower of Power recently told Baltimore’s Manny Machado that the shortstop would “look good in pinstripes.” Major League Baseball, concerned that Judge’s comments might constitute tampering, proceeded to slap the right fielder on the wrist.

Now, it’s common knowledge that Machado (a) is a free agent after the season and (b) has been connected to the Yankees before. So what, exactly, did Judge do wrong here? And what is “tampering” anyway?

If you’re a fan of that other sport invented by James Naismith using soccer balls and peach baskets, you’ve probably seen “tamperingthrown around relatively often. It’s less common in baseball, but does occur. So let’s look at the Rule. You’ll find it in Major League Baseball’s Official Rules. No, not these rules. These other rules. I bet you didn’t know there were two rulebooks.

Anyway, Rule 3(k) on page 43 of the latest Rulebook governs tampering, and says this:

TAMPERING. To preserve discipline and competition, and to prevent the enticement of players, coaches, managers and umpires, there shall be no negotiations or dealings respecting employment, either present or prospective, between any player, coach or manager and any Major or Minor League Club other than the Club with which the player is under contract, or acceptance of terms, or by which the player is reserved or which has the player on its Negotiation List, or between any umpire and any baseball employer other than the baseball employer with which the umpire is under contract, or acceptance of terms, unless the Club or baseball employer with which the person is connected shall have, in writing, expressly authorized such negotiations or dealings prior to their commencement.

And as if to reiterate that point, Section 3 of the MLBPA Regulations of Player Agents states that only agents can do recruiting.

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Meg Rowley Chat – 3/21/18

2:00
Meg Rowley: Hello! And welcome to a special Wednesday chat.

2:00
Nat: I’ve been greatly enjoying your contributions since you joined the site! Do you expect any big, Craig Kimbrel-esque trades to go down before opening day?

2:01
Meg Rowley: Thank you! And I’d be surprised (though I suppose we are often surprised by these). This isn’t a trade but boy, Greg Holland still needs to sign somewhere, huh?

2:02
Davy: Have you read today’s THT article? It was fantastic.

2:02
Meg Rowley: I, the managing editor of The Hardball Times, in fact edited today’s piece! And I agree that it is fantastic.

2:03
Meg Rowley: You should all read Annie’s piece on her journey through fandom: https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/a-rebuilding-year-my-way-back-to-basebal…

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2018 Positional Power Rankings: Shortstop

Hello! This is a post in the series called “Positional Power Rankings,” which started on Monday with Jeff Sullivan’s introduction and continues today with my thoughts on the league’s shortstops. If you’d prefer to read other people’s thoughts on other positions, you can navigate to those thoughts using the widget above.

We’ve been talking about a golden age of shortstops for a few years now. Scanning through this list, I don’t see any particular reason to stop the chatter. Some players are fading a little, but Manny Machado is a shortstop again this year, after spending much of his big-league career at third; J.P. Crawford and Gleyber Torres are emerging, and the guys at the top of the list are projected to be just as good or better than they were last year. This is a special time to care about the middle of the infield, and the folks ranked in the middle of this list this year could easily have ranked near the top a decade ago. In some cases, like Troy Tulowitzki’s, they literally did. Anyway, here’s the chart you’ve been looking for:

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Top 18 Prospects: Washington Nationals

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Washington Nationals. Scouting reports are compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as from our own (both Eric Longenhagen’s and Kiley McDaniel’s) observations. For more information on the 20-80 scouting scale by which all of our prospect content is governed you can click here. For further explanation of the merits and drawbacks of Future Value, read this.

A’s Top Prospects
Rk Name Age High Level Position ETA FV
1 Victor Robles 20 MLB CF 2018 65
2 Carter Kieboom 20 A 3B 2021 55
3 Juan Soto 19 R OF 2020 50
4 Erick Fedde 25 R RHP 2018 45
5 Seth Romero 21 A- LHP 2019 45
6 Wil Crowe 23 A- RHP 2020 45
7 Blake Perkins 21 A CF 2020 40
8 Yasel Antuna 18 R SS 2021 40
9 Daniel Johnson 22 A+ OF 2020 40
10 Kelvin Gutierrez 23 A+ 3B 2019 40
11 Andrew Stevenson 23 R OF 2018 40
12 Luis Garcia 17 R SS 2022 40
13 Austin Adams 26 MLB RHP 2018 40
14 Brigham Hill 22 A RHP 2020 40
15 Anderson Franco 20 A 3B 2020 40
16 Rafael Bautista 25 R OF 2018 40
17 Jose Marmolejos 24 AA 1B 2018 40
18 Osvaldo Abreu 23 AA UTIL 2019 40

65 FV Prospects

Age 20 Height 6’0 Weight 185 Bat/Throw R/R
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Hit Raw Power Game Power Run Fielding Throw
55/70 40/50 35/45 70/70 60/70 70/70

He’s barely played a month above A-ball, but Robles looked ready for the big leagues in 2017 and got a brief cup of coffee before finishing his season in the Arizona Fall League. He’s a polished, instinctive player capable of making an impact in every facet of baseball. Robles has great feel for all-fields contact and sneaky power for his size, which manifests itself in doubles and triples. He’s also a potential Gold Glove center fielder with breathtaking range and arm strength, and he was easily the best baserunner in the AFL, which features a pretty advanced group of prospects.

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Kiley McDaniel Chat – 3/21/18

11:07

Kiley McDaniel: As I mentioned in other places, have a flight today, so moved things up a bit in the day to accomodate

11:07

Tommy N.: Could Madrigal possibly move to the outfield in the future if he had to?

11:08

Kiley McDaniel: He could probably catch too, but I can’t imagine why he wouldn’t play 2B or SS.

11:08

Ronnie: Hi Kiley, what do you see Willie Calhoun’s hitting ceiling looking like? Is .300/.400/.500 too high for his ceiling?

11:09

Kiley McDaniel: Maybe not quite that much, but he’s one of the rare guys with a chance to do that. I would almost bet he does the .300 and .500 at least once in his career in the same year. .400 is much tougher for him with that bat control

11:09

Tigers Fan: If you are the GM of the Tigers, with the abundance of pitching prospects that they have up top, would you still take the BPA (like McClanahan or Mize) or go play the bonuses by drafting a hitter (Madrigal)?

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2018 Positional Power Rankings: Second Base

Throughout the week, we’re publishing our positional power ranking series. If you’re unfamiliar with the process or concept, Jeff explained the series on Monday. Today, I’ll be addressing second base. What fun!

Every position has its theme. You have the bright young things who play shortstop, the fly-ball revolutionaries occupying first base, the catchers who aren’t Buster Posey.

Second base has, in the past, been defined by the veterans at the top, but these rankings portend change in the form of young upstarts. Jose Altuve wrested the top of the rankings from Robinson Cano last year and has only widened the gap between himself and his keystone compatriots; he’s projected to be more than a win better than second place Brian Dozier. And as mentioned, the middle and bottom bits of the rankings feature names like Ozzie Albies, Ketel Marte, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Urias, all of whom could outperform their projections and shift their teams’ positions.

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MLB Teams With the Most Dead Money in 2018

As this offseason confirms, the way in which clubs spend their money has changed perceptibly over the last decade or so. Where it used to be commonplace for an organization to pay a player for what he had already done, teams have increasingly begun to compensate players for what they’re likely to do in the future. We see the emergence of this trend most clearly in long-term extensions for younger players, a development that has led to missing free-agent classes.

Of course, that doesn’t mean clubs have stopped signing free agents altogether or stopped exposing themselves to risk of any kind. Teams still need to address weaknesses, and one means to do that is by way of the open market. In some cases, the performances they expect fail to materialize. In some of those cases, teams decide they’re better off paying someone else to take care of the problem. This is how teams end up with dead money on their payroll.

Dead money is generally any money a team is paying out to a player who no longer appears on their 40-man roster. There are three types of dead money:

  1. Money paid to players who have been released. Those players are free to sign with other teams, but the team releasing the player still owes the money remaining on the contract.
  2. Money paid to other teams as compensation for players who have been traded. Generally, we see teams cover a portion of a contract to receive a better return in trade.
  3. Money paid to players who are still in the organization, but who have been removed from the 40-man roster. Any team could have claimed these players if they were willing to take on the contract, and the player probably could have elected fee agency, but then he would forfeit his right to the guaranteed money.

Last season, nearly $300 million of MLB payroll was of the deceased variety, a sum that was double the amount of the prior campaign. Over the past year, we’ve seen the contracts of Carl Crawford, Josh Hamilton, Jose Reyes, and Alex Rodriguez all come off the books. The result is a $100 million decrease in the amount of dead money from last year. The graph below shows the teams who are paying the most money this season to pay players not on their roster.

Boston takes the top spot this year thanks entirely to Rusney Castillo and Pablo Sandoval. The Los Angeles Dodgers’ dead money, meanwhile, is spread out over seven players. Because of their original trade with the Padres that removed Matt Kemp from their roster, they are actually paying an amount higher than his current salary after having reacquired him. And the Dodgers would actually place higher on this list if they had released Adrian Gonzalez instead of taking on Matt Kemp’s contract when their former first baseman was dealt to the Braves and then released. The team could also still increase its total if the front office decides Kemp is not a fit for the current roster.

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