To the overwhelming majority of baseball fans, the name Willians Astudillo means nothing. The 26-year-old has never been called up to the majors, and for three years in a row now, he’s elected free agency and signed a minor-league contract. Astudillo is there in spring training right now, but so are countless professional players you’d never recognize at the next table in a restaurant. Most people don’t know Willians Astudillo. Most people will never know Willians Astudillo. But there are those out there who know exactly who he is. Astudillo has a claim to being the single most interesting player in the minors.

Astudillo has yet to strike out this spring. Over the winter he batted 223 times in Venezuela, and he struck out on just four occasions. He struck out less often than a teammate who came to the plate just eight times. This is the Astudillo story. Out of the thousands of players in the minors in 2017, Astudillo had the third-lowest strikeout rate, and the lowest strikeout rate in Triple-A. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2016. He had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2015. He had the second-lowest strikeout rate in the minors in 2014. He apparently didn’t play in 2013, but in 2012, and in 2011, and in 2010, he had the lowest strikeout rate in the minors. Astudillo doesn’t strike out. Astudillo also doesn’t walk, and he has a limited track record of hitting for power, but he doesn’t strike out. As a professional, Astudillo has 67 strikeouts in 2,154 plate appearances. Joey Gallo recorded his 67th major-league strikeout in his 140th plate appearance.

For his ability to make contact alone, Astudillo has won himself some fans. But now, he also has another claim to fame. Although Astudillo has moved around, he is still considered a catcher. And, the other day, in a spring game, he picked off Shane Robinson without looking.

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This slow offseason has many fans and teams already looking toward — and maybe salivating over — next year’s free-agent class. The star power available next season is incredible. Josh Donaldson, Bryce Harper, and Manny Machado are among the top-nine position players on our Depth Chart Projections. All three will be free agents in November. With Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock, Brian Dozier, Clayton Kershaw, Daniel Murphy, and Andrew McCutchen also set to hit the market, the class boasts quality depth, as well.

Those are certainly some impressive names. Notably, however, almost all of them belong to position players. While next year’s free-agent class could be unrivaled in terms of overall talent, it’s possible that the glow of the top hitters has obscured how lopsided that class is likely to be. Kershaw is great, but there’s only one of him. Multiple teams, meanwhile, will be searching for pitching upgrades next winter. A preliminary glance at things reveals that their options could be limited.

Before getting to next year’s crop of pitchers, let’s perform a brief refresher on the one wrapping up. We had Yu Darvish at the top of the class, with Jake Arrieta a rung below followed by Lance Lynn, Alex Cobb, Tyler Chatwood, Jhoulys Chacin, and Jaime Garcia. This year’s group of free-agent starting pitchers lacked both firepower and quality depth, an unexpected development considering how things looked heading into last season. In December 2016, I naively believed in this year’s crop of starters. The projections backed me up, too: at that time, three pitchers appeared likely to produce four-win seasons, six to top three wins, and eight pitchers total to put up at least 2.5 WAR. By November, only Yu Darvish hit free agency with a season above 2.5 WAR, and even he missed his projection by a full win.

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Depending on your point of view, one of the more celebrated or ignominious parts of the game of baseball is the headhunter, perhaps most recently embodied in the person of Vicente Padilla. There have been others, though. Armando Benitez was, in his day, notorious for throwing chin music — and sometimes more than that.

Throwing a pitch at a batter intentionally is a violation of Major League Baseball Rule 6.02(c)(9) (Rule 8.02(d)). The comment to that Rule states that “[t]o pitch at a batter’s head is unsportsmanlike and highly dangerous. It should be — and is — condemned by everybody. Umpires should act without hesitation in enforcement of this rule.” Despite that strong language, headhunting is not a violation of baseball’s unwritten rules. Therefore, it keeps happening.

Whatever virtues one might find in the practice, it’s nevertheless obvious that headhunting can be really dangerous. Former Cleveland shortstop Ray Chapman notably died after being struck in the head. Tony Conigliaro’s career — and life — was altered dramatically by a beaning in his age-22 season. Even throwing at a batter unintentionally can have devastating consequences, as we saw with Giancarlo Stanton after he was hit by Mike Fiers.

But the presence of headhunting in the game raises an interesting question — namely, what legal recourse, if any, does a batter have against a pitcher who throws at him intentionally?

Let’s start with some basic definitions to help us out here. Today we’ll be talking about “assault” and “battery,” two terms that get thrown around a lot in popular culture but actually have pretty specific legal meanings.

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At a basic level, nearly every piece at FanGraphs represents an attempt to answer a question. What is the value of an opt-out in a contract? Why do the Brewers continue to fare so poorly in the projected standings? How do people behave in the eighth inning of a spring-training game? Those were the questions asked, either explicitly or implicitly, by Jeff Sullivan, Jay Jaffe, and Meg Rowley just yesterday.

This piece also begins with question — probably one that has occurred to a number of readers. It concerns how we evaluate pitchers and how best to evaluate pitchers. I’ll present the question momentarily. First, a bit of background.

Fielding Independent Pitching, or FIP, is a well-known tool for estimating ERA. FIP attempts to isolate a pitcher’s contribution to run-prevention. It also serves as a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. The formula for FIP is elegant, including just three variables: strikeouts, walks, and homers. It does not include balls in play. That said, one would be mistaken for assuming that FIP excludes any kind of measurement for what happens when the bat hits the ball. Let this be a gentle reminder that home runs both (a) are a type of batted ball and (b) represent a major component of FIP. There is, in other words, some consideration of contact quality in FIP.

Expected wOBA, or xwOBA, is a newer metric, the product of Statcast data. xwOBA is calculated with run-value estimates derived from exit velocity and launch angle. Basically, xwOBA calculates the average run value of every batted ball for a hitter (or allowed by a pitcher), adds in the defense-independent numbers, and arrives as a wOBA-like figure. The advantage of xwOBA is that it removes the variance of batted-ball results and uses a “Platonic” value instead.

The introduction of Statcast’s batted-ball data is exciting and seems like it might help to better isolate a pitcher’s contributions. But does it? This is where I was compelled to ask my own, relatively simple question — namely, is xwOBA better for assessing pitcher performance than the more traditional FIP? What I found, however, is that the answer isn’t so simple.

The differences between FIP and xwOBA, as well as the similarities, deserve some exploration.

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I’ll get to Lucas Giolito in a moment. But first, James Paxton. Paxton has always had pretty good stuff, but for a while, he didn’t know quite where it was going. Here are two screenshots from before Paxton broke out.

Paxton would reach back, and, with his glove arm, he’d reach up. Like, way up. And that sort of set the tone, because Paxton’s throwing arm would then come over the top. There are good over-the-top pitchers — there are great over-the-top pitchers — but Paxton didn’t become one. Not quite. Early in 2016, Paxton changed his angles. Almost instantly, he gained some gas, and he gained some control. Paxton turned into an ace-level starter, when he’s been healthy enough to start, at least. Two more screenshots, now.

Paxton’s glove arm has calmed down. And while he’s still not a side-armer or anything, Paxton has lowered his arm slot. His release point is down several inches, from where it had been. The way Paxton describes it, this is his natural slot, and it certainly looks more comfortable to the eye. Paxton has settled on better mechanics, and it’s among the reasons why he’s gotten so good.

To Giolito, now. There’s something I was just never able to shake.

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On a Bay Area edition of EW’s season-preview series, Ben Lindbergh and Jeff Sullivan banter about the resolution of their free-agent-contracts draft, the Lance Lynn, Neil Walker, and Jake Arrieta signings, the offseason market in review, and a Stephen Hawking baseball connection, then preview the 2018 Giants (32:07) with SB Nation’s Grant Brisbee, and the 2018 Athletics (1:07:20) with the San Francisco Chronicle’s Susan Slusser.

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This should not be a riddle. There are too many riddles in this universe, this country, this state, this zip code. We accept there will always be some unanswerable questions; it’s part of the bargain for living in a boundless, knotty orb. But this is baseball. The day of the apex of human knowledge – or the robot uprising – is one day closer, and a fair number of us spend a large amount of our time thinking about the game. So what’s the right way to catch a fly ball?

Two hands? That’s what I was told. I’m sure you were also told this. You could probably still hear an elder screaming “two hands” so loudly it traversed time and space and occasionally still echoes in your head. Using both of your hands was the “proper” way to handle anything. Only a neanderthal would pass the carrots at the dinner table with one hand, et al.

Juan Lagares uses two hands when he makes a routine catch.

https://gfycat.com/YoungFavorableDoe

But not when he’s chasing down a fly ball trying to run away from him.

https://gfycat.com/CarelessDamagedChuckwalla

Nobody uses two hands when they have to chase a ball in the gap or when they have to dive. There’s no time, even for a guy like Lagares. Yet it’s just as important to secure a baseball and lock it in a vise no matter how little time you have to react. So I ask again, and this is important since ground balls are quickly growing extinct: how am I catching this fly ball?

“I was always taught to use two hands.” That’s what Mets right fielder Ryan Church said in May 2009. “I mean, if you have to reach for it well that’s one thing, but if you’re there waiting for it, then yeah, sure, two hands.”

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Jake Arrieta is now officially a member of the Phillies. For a few weeks, this arrangement was feeling increasingly inevitable, as Scott Boras wasn’t finding longer-term offers, and as the Phillies have had tens of millions of dollars of payroll space. The Phillies are getting closer to relevance, and, among the would-be Arrieta suitors, they have to worry about efficient spending the least. So, here we are, with Arrieta having had his formal press-conference introduction. The Phillies still aren’t anyone’s wild-card favorites, but Arrieta unquestionably makes them stronger. The rotation is now deeper than just Aaron Nola.

The player in question is interesting enough on his own. Entire books could be written about Arrieta’s career, and he still has another few chapters to go. Arrieta has experienced dizzying highs and unthinkable lows, which makes him out to be something inspiring. But let me warn you right now, this is not a post about Arrieta’s professional achievements. It’s not a post about whether I think Arrieta is going to age gracefully. This is a post about the contract. The inanimate paper contract. Specifically, this is a post about a clause in the contract. You should leave now if you don’t care about this. But with the Jake Arrieta deal, the Phillies and Scott Boras have agreed to something new.

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