It’s not the results. I mean, it’s not not the results. Nobody feels good about an 0-4 record or a 5.68 ERA. But while the top line numbers are reason enough to worry about Spencer Strider, changes to his delivery and pitch shapes point to deeper concerns. The 26-year-old right-hander has made just four starts this season, but it’s reasonable to ask whether he’ll ever regain the form that just two years ago made him one of the most dominant forces in the game.

First and foremost, this stinks. Strider is a charismatic young player who’s easy to root for. When he’s at his best, standing bow-legged on the mound with his muscles threatening to shred his uniform pants, blowing 100-mph heat past anyone unlucky enough to find themselves in the batter’s box, he’s appointment viewing. After a cup of coffee in 2021, Strider burst onto the scene a fully-formed ace in 2022, laying waste to the league with a 98-mph fastball, a wicked slider, and a rumor of a changeup. From 2022 to 2023, his 2.43 FIP was the best among all starters, and his 10.3 WAR trailed only Kevin Gausman’s 10.7. Strider’s 3.36 ERA was 16th-best among starters with at least 300 innings pitched, and he looked for all the world like he would spend the rest of the decade as a true ace. Four games back from the internal brace surgery that wiped out nearly all of his 2024 season, we’re forced to reassess. Read the rest of this entry »

It’s been a frustrating season for Mark Vientos. After two years of trying to stick with the Mets, he broke out by hitting 27 homers in 111 games last season, and handled third base well enough to look as though he’d locked down a regular job. Yet this year, he’s regressed on both sides of the ball, and on Tuesday night in Los Angeles, he added injury to insult when he strained his right hamstring. The silver lining is that the 25-year-old slugger will get a chance for a reset once he’s healthy, and in his absence, the Mets have an opportunity to sort through their talented but still largely unproven assortment of young infielders.

Vientos’ injury occurred in the top of the 10th inning in Monday night’s opener of a four-game NLCS rematch between the Mets and Dodgers in Los Angeles; the series was an exciting one full of late-inning lead changes, with the two teams emerging with a split and three games decided by one run. Los Angeles had tied Monday’s game in the bottom of the ninth on a Shohei Ohtani sacrifice fly, and New York answered by scoring runs with back-to-back hits to start the 10th. With two outs and runners on the corners, Vientos had a chance to break the game open. He’d been hitting the ball hard lately but not getting great results, and when he smoked a 97-mph grounder to the right of shortstop Hyeseong Kim, it appeared to be more of the same. Kim reached the ball before it cleared the infield, but his throw to first base was an off-line one-hopper. It didn’t matter, as Vientos had fallen down before making it halfway down the line, because his right hamstring seized up.

On Tuesday, the Mets placed Vientos on the injured list and sent him back to New York to determine the severity of the injury. Manager Carlos Mendoza said on Wednesday that Vientos has a low-grade hamstring strain and is expected to receive treatment for 10-14 days before resuming baseball activities. To replace him on the roster, the Mets recalled 24-year-old Ronny Mauricio from Triple-A Syracuse. The former Top 100 prospect (no. 44 in 2022, and no. 90 in ’23, both as a 50-FV prospect) missed all of last season due to a right anterior cruciate ligament tear suffered during winter ball in February 2024. More on him below, but first, Vientos’ struggles are worth a closer look. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »

OK, I give. I did not expect the Detroit Tigers to have the best record in baseball a week into June. Or at any point in the season, to be honest. We all knew that this was a playoff team with some developing young talent still in the pipeline; a return to the postseason and a run at the AL Central title seemed like reasonable goals. But the Tigers have not only done what was expected (Tarik Skubal’s continued excellence) and hoped for (former no. 1 picks Spencer Torkelson and Casey Mize leveling up), they’ve gotten breaks they could not even have dreamed of (Zach McKinstry’s .360 OBP).

But one obvious place the Tigers were set to improve was behind the plate. Jake Rogers is a terrific defender, and not as bad a hitter as I thought before I looked up his numbers. Which is to say I thought his numbers were horrendous; they were merely bad. Rogers was one of just 12 players to hit under .200 in 300 or more PA last year; out of 286 players who hit that playing time threshold, he was in the bottom 20 in wRC+.

Great defense behind the plate covers for a lot of offensive sins, but speaking generally, playoff teams don’t like to have a guy in the lineup every day who makes outs 75% of the time. Surely, there’s a way to achieve equivalent defense without giving up quite so much offense?

Good news; Dillon Dingler is here, and he can do better than that. Read the rest of this entry »

Author’s note: Five Things will return next week. In the meantime, enjoy an article about one of my favorite players.

Do you want to know how much Carlos Santana loves playing baseball? From 2020 through 2023, he played for five teams, got traded midseason twice, and compiled a 94 wRC+. He was 37, had earned more than $100 million in his career, and didn’t have an obvious everyday starting job lined up. He could have hung up his spikes right then – but he took a one-year, $5.5 million deal with the Twins and turned back the clock with a 114 wRC+. Then he signed another one-year deal, this one for $12 million with the Guardians, and kept the train rolling. Through the first third of the season, he’s on pace for his best year in more than half a decade.

What’s his secret? As a fellow 39-year-old, I wanted to find out – for, you know, mostly professional reasons, but also because sometimes my knees hurt after going on a particularly brisk walk. Bad news for me, though. I’ve found out one thing that Santana has done in 2025 to rejuvenate himself, and I’m not sure that I can replicate it in my personal life.

Let me explain. If you look at Santana’s Baseball Savant percentile rankings, you won’t come away impressed:

Yes, we get it, the man has an elite sense of the strike zone, and he’s still great at defense — no big surprise — but it’s a bit of a bummer if we look only at the bar graphs above Chase%; there’s not a ton of loud contact, not a ton of squared-up contact, and he’s rarely hitting the ball on the sweet spot. That’s a lot of blue for a guy running a 123 wRC+ and getting an article written about his late-career resurgence. Read the rest of this entry »

Lawrence Butler does a lot of things well, but he cannot hit a high fastball. Entering play on June 2, Butler had just one career barrel against an elevated fastball: A deep fly out off an 87.5 mph Trevor Williams “heater” in the dog days of 2023. In 2025, he’s whiffing on over half his swings at high heaters, per the Baseball Savant-defined shadow zones at the top edge of the strike zone. (That’s attack zones 11, 12, and 13 for the Savant search heads.)

Most of the hitters with high whiff rates on top-rail four-seamers have steep swing planes. (Aaron Judge and Luis Robert Jr. are two notable examples.) Not Butler: His 31 degree swing tilt is actually a bit flatter than the major league average. Butler’s primary issue is timing — his average attack direction on these pitches is oriented 18 degrees toward the opposite field; his zero degree attack angle is perfectly flat. Whatever the reason, it’s a clear hole, and certain pitchers are primed to exploit it. Read the rest of this entry »

Ben Lindbergh and Meg Rowley banter about Pete Alonso’s performance since they marveled at his hot start, the return of Craig Kimbrel, Max Muncy’s tale of two seasons, how hitters fare after LASIK, the Mets’ “secret sauce” against Shohei Ohtani, whether the Dodgers’ injury woes will hurt their capacity to recruit pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt’s “yes hitter,” the latest step toward the challenge system, Eric Anthony’s dad discovery and nature and nurture in player development, the underrated Willie Davis and Reggie Smith, and more, plus a combined Meet a Major Leaguer/Stat Blast segment (1:19:39) on Nic Enright and Christian Montes De Oca (and the rule-altering signing of the 13-year-old Jimy Kelly).

Audio intro: Moon Hound, “Effectively Wild Theme”
Audio outro: El Warren, “Effectively Wild Theme”

Link to previous Pete banter
Link to Pete before
Link to Pete after
Link to Muncy before
Link to Muncy after
Link to Muncy article
Link to MLB LASIK study
Link to secret sauce article
Link to Spahn quote
Link to Cup of Coffee
Link to FG on Casparius
Link to “yes hitter” post
Link to “yes hitter” Stathead
Link to Ben on no-hitters 1
Link to Ben on no-hitters 2
Link to challenge system news
Link to Anthony and Davis story
Link to B-Ref new debuts
Link to The Athletic on Enright
Link to Guardians prospects list
Link to phantom player wiki
Link to 1972 scouting article
Link to Montes de Oca wiki
Link to Montes de Oca name
Link to Diamondbacks prospects
Link to MDO article 1
Link to MDO article 2
Link to MDO article 3
Link to MDO article 4
Link to Kelly at B-Ref
Link to MiLB.com on Kelly
Link to SI on Kelly
Link to EW Stanky draft
Link to Mexican League article
Link to Koo video
Link to Bois on Koo
Link to Kenny Jackelen
Link to player signings spreadsheet

 Sponsor Us on Patreon
 Give a Gift Subscription
 Email Us: podcast@fangraphs.com
 EW Subreddit
 Effectively Wild Wiki
 iTunes Feed (Please rate and review us!)
 Spotify Feed
 Facebook Group
 Bluesky Account
 Twitter Account
 Get Our Merch!

Podcast (effectively-wild): Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

I owe Red Sox catcher Carlos Narváez an apology. In my preseason write-up of Boston’s backstops, I called him “organizational depth.” I lumped him in with Blake Sabol and Seby Zavala as the uninspiring backup catcher options for the team with the worst projected WAR at the position in the American League. That was in March. Now it’s June, and the rookie is slashing .288/.356/.456 with five home runs and a 126 wRC+ through 47 games. Thanks to strong framing, blocking, and throwing skills, he has earned himself 6 DRS and a +6 FRV. The only catcher who has him beat in both metrics is defensive wizard Patrick Bailey. By WAR, Narváez is one of the top-30 position players in the game. Among catchers, he ranks fifth, and if you only consider WAR accumulated as a catcher, he ranks second. If he keeps this up for a few more weeks, he’ll have a compelling case to be Cal Raleigh’s backup at the All-Star Game this summer.

Regardless what happens from here on out, Narváez has already been far more than just depth for the Red Sox. I was wrong, and I will readily eat crow or humble pie, though I’d really prefer the pie. At the same time, I can’t blame myself too much for overlooking him. After all, it took more than eight years from the day he signed with the Yankees as an international free agent for him to appear as anything more than an honorable mention on one of our organizational top prospect lists. Even then, Eric Longenhagen ranked him 32nd in the Yankees system (35+ FV) entering 2024, with the words “third catcher” closing out his write-up. Meanwhile, Narváez didn’t appear on a Baseball America list until this past offseason, when the publication ranked him 29th in the Red Sox organization. Neither Baseball Prospectus, nor The Athletic mentioned him on their top-20 Red Sox prospects lists this winter.

While I might have been wrong about who Narváez would be, I wasn’t wrong about who he had been when I called him “unknown” and “hardly… a top prospect.” Still, I used his reputation, or really his lack of a reputation, to let myself off the hook from learning more about him. Relying on reputation is often a necessary heuristic technique – if we all had to verify everything for ourselves, we’d never accomplish anything – but that doesn’t mean it can’t lead to mistakes. With more than 100 catchers to consider for the Position Power Rankings, I needed to find ways to reduce my workload. So, I glossed over Narváez because he didn’t have enough of a reputation to attract more of my attention. Read the rest of this entry »

Read the rest of this entry »